Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/16/26: Hegseth Says US Reloading For Iran, Saudi LIV Golf Collapse, Corporate Price Gouging

Transcript

4/16/26: Hegseth Says US Reloading For Iran, Saudi LIV Golf Collapse, Corporate Price Gouging · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. I have an
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal?
• 0:38
  Speaker 4: Indeed we do so.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: The US is saying that talks will continue with Iran
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: as we learn more about China's important role in this conflict.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia is looking ready to pull the plug on
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Live Golf, potentially partly over the economic fallout from the
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: Iran war. That's very interesting, right, of course, I got
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: a full briefing from Kyle before presenting the segment, so
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: don't worry.
• 0:57
  Speaker 4: I'll have all of the details for.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: You there news fighting with Scott Bessant over gas prices.
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Professor Muhammed Morandi is going to join us from Tehran
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: for a view from within Iran about these negotiations. Trump
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: is setting his sites on Cuban. Next, we'll talk about
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: the implications there. All Birds. This is the craziest story
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: so All Birds, which is I guess still a shoe
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: company and was like a big favorite of tech guys
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: out in Silicon Valley. They have decided to switch from
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: being a shoe company to an AI company, just like
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: out of the blue, and now their stock price is soaring,
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: so a lot that's interesting there. We'll also have some
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: other updates for you about just how wildly unpopular AI
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: data centers are at this point, and a segment I'm
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: really looking forward to. Nome Shiber is going to join
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: us to talk about his new book on how college
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: grads are becoming the new proletariat are increasingly radicalized, and
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: obviously that dovetails very closely with the AI segment as well,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: so it should be a very interesting show this morning.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: That's right, can't wait for it. Thank you.
• 1:54
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• 2:06
  Speaker 3: we need a nice good number two point five. That's
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: the Crystal has decided.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Did you hear Emily yesterday? Yeah, fifty million.
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: I like her audacity.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: I was like, you know what, let's take it fifty million.
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: Forget about it, let's just.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: Million.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I think they get you.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: I think you get a new plaque at ten million.
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: It's like a damened one. But I have not that
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: I've paid any attention. And then, of course, if you're
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  Speaker 3: with the friend. It really helps other people find the show.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: But as Crystal said, let's go ahead and start with
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: the latest of what's happening with the blockade and Iran
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: just heads up to everybody, there's a live briefing happening
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: from the Pentagon right now, so we're gonna be monitoring
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: that and adding some of this stuff in there. Let's
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: go ahead and start though with some of it's very
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: consequential news from the Financial Times.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Put it up here on the screen.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: Iran has used Chinese spy satellites to target US bases,
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: they say. Leak documents show IRGC secretly acquired systems and
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: used it to guide strikes during the March War. In March,
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Iran secretly acquired this Chinese spy satellite gave the Islamic
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: Republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: The leaked Iranian military documents showed the satellite, known as
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: the TEEO one B, was acquired by the IRGC's Aerospace
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: Force in late twenty twenty four after it was launched
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: into space from China. The timestam Coordinate list, satellite imagery
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: and orbital analysis show that the Iranian military commanders tasked
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: the satellite to monitor key US military sites and the
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: images were taken in March before and after drone missile
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: strikes on those locations, and actually you could see some
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: of the battle damage assessment and stuff that being used
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: by the Iranians. They say that this satellite was built
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: and launched by Earth Eye Company. That's a Chinese company
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: that says it offers in orbit delivery AKA it's like
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: a SpaceX style competitor and a little known export model,
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: under which spacecraft launched in China are then transferred to
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: overseas customers after reaching orbit. I do think that this
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: is an incredibly significant and important piece of news. Obviously
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: was long speculated of. There was some sharing. This effectively
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: amounts of sharing. You know, maybe they paid for it,
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: maybe they didn't. It was some sort of deal. But
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: it does demonstrate, you know, the real asymmetry of the
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: problem for US adversaries, because if we're looking here at Iran,
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: this is Iran which just has ballistic missiles. Another nuclear
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: arm power rogue state which threatens the United States is
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: called North Korea, which happens to be a very close
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: ally of China, and so you have to ask then
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: it's like, well, does North Korea have the same targeting capacity?
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: And I think it does demonstrates the level playing field
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: that any adversary in the future will have. In the
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: same way that the United States would arm the Mujahadeen
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: in in Afghanistan to try and take down the Soviet Union,
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: or we would use a considerable force of our empire,
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: it doesn't take much to actually reveal the vulnerabilities that
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: we have. Massively significant piece of news.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also just significant as we try to claim,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: like how close is this to being a proxy war
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: between the US and China at a time when we're
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: already obviously engaged in a proxy war the US versus
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Russia via Ukraine, And so this is another indicator. It
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: also demonstrates the way in which some of the capacity
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: Iran has, why they were able to do so much
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: damage to thirteen of our bases in the region, significant
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: enough that they were rendered uninhabitable allegedly, and so our
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: service members were being put up in hotels throughout the region.
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: And then you know, the other piece of this.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Is obviously with our decision now to blockade the blockade
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: or whatever is going on there, that is clearly also
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: an attempt not only put pressure on Iran, but I
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: think it's actually more of an attempt to put pressure
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: on China, hoping that China will put pressure on Iran
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: to come to the table.
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: So we already have a lot of.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: These elements of this conflict that are being driven by
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: relationships between the US and China, between China and Iran,
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: and how all the pieces fit together.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. Let's go to the next one. Shall
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: we A two let's put it up here on the screen. Actually,
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: our friend Brandon Wikert was one of the first to
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: actually report this, but has now basically been confirmed. A
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: US Navy MQ four C tried and surveillance drone A
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: disappeared abruptly and unexpectedly from online freight tracking after declaring
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: an inflight emergency while flying over the Persian Gulf. This
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: was a dateline from a couple of days ago, on
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: April ninth. Now, the reason why that this is really
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: important is I was personally unaware of this, but this
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: surveillance drone is one of the most advanced drones actually
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: that is in the US military arsenal. The estimating price
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: tag appears to be some several hundred million dollars and
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: was broadcasting at one point an in flight emergency. So
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: very likely to have been shot down, and we know
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: that it's been disappeared over their airspace. But it just
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: added to the list of all of these strategic assets
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: which took hits. You had refueling base and they actually
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: talked specifically in that Financial Times article about how that
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: attack on the Prince Sultan Air Base probably the most
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: significant strategic strike that the Iran and so obviously they
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: had those strikes which killed US service members, but this
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: strike took out you know, that critical US Navy surveillance
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: aircraft which costs seven hundred million dollars. It took out
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: and disabled multiple different tankers. We actually saw that picture
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: remember of that tanker coming back to the UK with
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: shrapnel all over. I mean, you haven't seen imagery like
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: that since like World War Two in black and white.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: And then you have this surveillance drone which is added
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: to the list of all of the other MQ nine
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: Reaper drones which we actually lost over Iran. So the
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: total price tag just in lost military equipment is going
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: to be well into the billions. The operating cost of
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: the war. I mean, it's always difficult to ballpark. The
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: conservative estimate is somebody something like thirty five to forty billion,
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: and if you add in all of the soft costs,
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: it's very likely to be eighty billion. So you can
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: I mean, we just vaporized almost one hundred billion dollars
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: in a month, which everyone should be like, combine it
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: with the China piece. How is that preparedness? This is
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: a low level tertiary conflict which didn't even involve the
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: US ground troops. So what is a real conflict going to.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: Look it's a nightmare, obviously. Look money is not everything,
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: but what it does expose is inefficiency, problems within the system,
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: and the inability to actually accomplish the task that you
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: set out to. We didn't destroy the ballistic missile program,
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: we didn't change the regime. We ultimately really didn't accomplish
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: any of the major go like we didn't wipe out
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: all the drone factories. Ballistic missile capacity retain somewhere around
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: thirty to forty percent. US intelligence leaked estimates say they
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: still have these Chinese assets. And right now, I mean,
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: like I said, we're monitoring this press conference which is
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: happening right now, and one of the first things that
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: Secretary hex at this said is we're taking this opportunity
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: to reload all of our air So, you know, and
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: something I had even heard from a very very knowledgeable
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: source was at the end of the day, if the
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: war hadn't stopped, we would have had to cycle out
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: a significant number of those air assets because they all
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: have to go through maintenance. Like you're again, I'm not
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: an expert. There's something about x amount of flight hours
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: that they can operate in combat before they have to
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: go through a cycle of serious think about it, like
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: a Formula one or Nascar, you know, like the tires
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: and stuff give out, so they all have to be changed.
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: But instead of changing in two seconds, it takes a while.
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: It takes a week or something. And so this is
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: the problem that we're already facing. It's one reason that
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: the ceasefire has been probably more advantageous, I would say
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: to the United States, is we're not in a fight
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: for our lives. Like this was a retooling, get some
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: more troops to the region, more ammunition being moved from
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: across the globe. So that's where things seem to be
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: right now.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're also pushing automakers to basically ramp up, like hey,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: can we maybe use you to make some weapons very
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: World War two as which obviously none of that is
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: going to happen tomorrow, but it shows you the way
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: that this administration is recognizing number one, how much our
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: supplies are depleted, and number two, how committed they are
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: to just continual war.
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: We're going to talk later in.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: The show about how they're already like, hey, we're on
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: to Cuban next. Meanwhile, you've got Israel on here, like
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: you know who else is really bad? After I run Turkey.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Got to take a look at that. And when you
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: combine that news with the fact that Trump is asking
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: with this one point five trillion dollar war budget, you
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: can see the way that they're thinking that you know,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: doesn't even count in the domestic police force that through
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: Ice through the one big beautiful bill that has been escalated.
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: Significantly as well.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: And on the China piece too, we had Treasury Secretary
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Scott Bessett who joined the briefing yesterday, and he is
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: threatening Chinese banks with sanctions if they continue to allow
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: Iranian money to flow through them. Let's go ahead and
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: take a listen to that.
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: I don't have an update on the tariffs, but I
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: do have an update on sanction. Iran is used to
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: be the largest state sponsor of terrorism. China was purchasing
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: more than ninety percent of their oil, which is about
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: eight percent of China's energy needs. We believe this blockade
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: in the Straits there will be a pause of Chinese buying.
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: But I will tell you that two Chinese banks received
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: letters from the US Treasury. I'm not going to identify
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: the banks. But we told them that if we can
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: prove that there is Iranian money flowing through your accounts,
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: then we are willing to put on secondary sanctions. Are
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: you considering any more sanctioned relief as to Secretary for
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: countries that are suffering right now, in order to get
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: more oil to your allies, we will not be renewing
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: the general license on Russian oil, and we will not
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: be renewing the general license on Iranian oil. Again, there
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: was oil that was on the water prior to more
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: so all that has been used.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: And that last part is significant to Sagar and just
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: shows how confused the strategy has been, because originally what
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: he's referring to is the fact that we basically like
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: lifted the sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil because we were
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: so worried.
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: About the oil markets.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: And the impact on our own economy and on any
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: sort of I mean, there barely is any support for
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: the war here, and how much of a political blow
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: that would be. I don't care about like the economic
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: blow to your pocketbook. They're worried about their own political
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: landscape here. Now the strategy has flipped to all right,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: we're going to blockade.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: The blockade we're going to keep.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: That means that fewer barrows of oil will be getting
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: into the market. And then they're playing a dangerous game
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: here with regard to these actions towards China, because we
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: already know we went head to head with China on
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: economic warfare and China one, that's the bottom line. When
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: we had the terrify with China, they came back and said, Okay, well,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: here's all the rare earths and all the other critical
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: supply lines that you do not have any access to
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: without our help. Let's go ahead and make a deal
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: with terms that are favorable to us. And Trump said, okay, yeah,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: you're right. You know what, we really can't We really
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: can't bear the pressure that that would entail.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really I mean, this whole war in some
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: ways is like a it's like the final boss of
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: everything that we've.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Been warning about for many years.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: Like if you were on the critics side, So first
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: of all, what was the big warning, We're not nearly
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: as good at fighting war. Then a lot of these
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: people want you to believe and at this point, I
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: don't really know how you could think otherwise. Even the
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: people who wanted regime change and other they're saying that.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: This was a fail.
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: Listen to the Israelis, the people who set this up,
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: and they're like, hey, we still have Iranian missiles, they
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: still have the regime in power.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Though straight of horn.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: Moves was effectively blockaded, like we had to blockade the blockade.
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: All these troops were ended up dying. You know, we
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: weren't able to actually protect them properly. We lost all
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: these strategic assets. So like, let's put that. But the
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: second thing is, what do we warn about four years ago,
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: almost to the day. Why would these Russian sanctions ultimately
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: be a disaster. And while they did significantly hurt Russia,
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: in the interim, Russia and China work together to create
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: an entire shadow banking system absent the United States, which
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: is unsanctionable effectively, because they do not even expose themselves
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: to a level of secondary sanctions. They've created this entire
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: banking system to make it untouchable from the US. That's
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: why Iran at the height of the war was demanding
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: these payments in one because they know the currency those payments,
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: their eventual like contracts and et cetera, is untouched, not
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: just by US sanctions, but even by US secondary sanctions.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: And to explain a bit, it's kind of complicated, but
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: there's a difference between a US sanction as in, like
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: everyone at this bank is sanctioned, and then secondary sanctions
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: secondary sanctions.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Again, there's many types.
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: One of the types I assume which he is threatening
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: is the type where if you do bit like like
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: I a bank accounted Chase right, Chase Bank, Well, let's
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: say I was sanctioned and secondary sanctioned by the Treasury,
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: then anybody who did business with Chase would also be
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: subject to a sanction because they did business with So
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: it's like a way to try and get the ultimate punishment. Well,
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: we did that with Russia, and again it survived. Not
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: only survived, they made more money than ever before. Their
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: economy basically became the garrison war state that Trump wants
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: to turn US into, and their GDP went up dramatically. Also,
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: they've lost at a minimum couple one hundred thousand men
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: in Ukraine, their population just doesn't care, like it's kind
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: of crazy. They probably lost more than double the amount
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: of people that have been killed in Vietnam and everything there,
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: like largely after several years, they mostly support the war.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I don't get it.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: I'm not Russian, but it's like every strategy of like
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: miserate the population, try and use the power of US
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: economic empire hasn't really happened, you know. And the Iranians
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: are one of the major beneficiaries of this, largely because
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: they do a lot of business with the Chinese. Chinese
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: willing to give them spy satellites, and at this point,
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: as long as Iran can survive, it can be a
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: symbol of how brittle the US Empire actually is. At
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: the same time, there's all these talks about talks and
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: potentially new talks. Here's Caroline Levitt laying out what these
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: future talks may look like, where they might take place,
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: apparently in Islamabad.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 16:10
  Speaker 6: What's just the thing, be Irnhire Caroline.
• 16:14
  Speaker 7: Yes, so I saw some reporting again bad reporting this morning,
• 16:17
  Speaker 7: that we had formally requested an extension of the ceasefire.
• 16:20
  Speaker 7: That is not true at this moment. We've remained very
• 16:23
  Speaker 7: much engaged in these negotiations, in these talks. You heard
• 16:27
  Speaker 7: from the Vice President directly and the President this week
• 16:30
  Speaker 7: that these conversations are productive and ongoing, and that's where
• 16:33
  Speaker 7: we are right now. I've also seen some reporting about
• 16:36
  Speaker 7: the potentiality for in person discussions. Again, those discussions are
• 16:40
  Speaker 7: being had, but nothing is official until you hear it
• 16:43
  Speaker 7: from us here at the White House.
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: But we feel good about the prospects of a deal.
• 16:46
  Speaker 7: The President mentioned that in his interview yesterday, and it's
• 16:50
  Speaker 7: obviously in the best interest of Iran to meet the
• 16:53
  Speaker 7: president's demands. I think he's made his red lines in
• 16:55
  Speaker 7: these negotiations very clear to the other side, and so
• 16:58
  Speaker 7: we are continuing to see how these conversations go.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: With Paul Shabi in ishlah blah blah or where would
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: they be the next.
• 17:05
  Speaker 7: Round, They would very likely be in the same place
• 17:08
  Speaker 7: as they were last time, Yes, with the same I
• 17:11
  Speaker 7: just want to make one point that's important to the President.
• 17:14
  Speaker 7: The Pakistanis have been incredible mediators throughout this process, and
• 17:17
  Speaker 7: we really appreciate their friendship and their efforts to bring
• 17:20
  Speaker 7: this deal.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: To a close.
• 17:21
  Speaker 7: So they are the only mediator in this negotiating negotiation.
• 17:25
  Speaker 7: While there have been many countries around the world who
• 17:27
  Speaker 7: want to offer their help. The President feels it's important
• 17:30
  Speaker 7: to continue to streamline this communication through the Pakistanis and
• 17:34
  Speaker 7: so that's what continues.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: To take place.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: So that is an important point. The Pakistanis are actually
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: in Tehran today. I'm going to ask mister Mirandi about
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: that specifically about anything that may have come out of
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: that meeting. What we do know apparently as of this morning,
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: is that there has been some movement. Apparently the way
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: the Iranians are playing is they're willing to talk on
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: horm moves. Largely, it's kind of difficult to blockade the
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: Strait of Hormves forever because Oman also has say in
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: that they said, well maybe ships can go on the
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: Omani side, not on the Iranian side. But at the
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: end of the day, the one thing that we'll compromise
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: on is the nukes, is that they will not agree
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: to this twenty year zero Enrichmond and or giving away
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: all of their highly enriched uranium. That's where things stand
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: as of right now. So it's April sixteen, So the
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: deadline is what is it? April twenty second, I believe
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: is when the twenty is when the two weeks ceasefire
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: officially expires. There is some talk of an extension of
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: the ceasefire. There is also some talk potentially of a
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: new round of talks. But remember, as you guys watch
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: the news, it's a twenty one hour transit time to
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: Pakistan with refueling. I think it's something like a full
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: day just to get over there. So you have to
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: have an agreement on the talks, a resumption of the talks,
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: and then the Vice President and Wikoff and all these
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: other people will get on Air Force two and then
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: go to Pakistan. So it takes a long time before
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: any of this works out. Of course, it's Trump. You
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: can move the deadline at any time. It can just
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: treat I've decided to extend it by forty eight hours,
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: and so I don't know. I really don't know where
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: things are going to go from here. But as this
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: as we said, we're monitoring all of this press conference.
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: Here's a quote from the Chairman Joint Chiefs. I'd like
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: to emphasize during this pause pause not ceaspire, that the
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: United States Joint Force remains postured and ready to resume
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: major combat operations at literally a moment's notice. Let me
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: be clear from General Kine, this blockade applies to all ships,
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: regardless of nationality, heading into or from Iranian ports.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: May be useful to have laid that out at the
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: start of.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: The blockade, But okay, the US action is a blockade
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: of Iran's ports and coastline, not.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: A blockade of the Straight of Horre Moves.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: Enforcement will occur inside Iranian territorial sea and in international water.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: So there has been some speculation. In fact, there's been
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: a new notice from the United States Navy as of
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: this morning. I was just looking where it could be applied.
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: Remember when that Iranian was the submarine was sunk off
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: the coast of Sri Lanka. I think in the early
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: days of the war, there was some discussion actually that
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: Iranian ships in all international waters, any maritime vessel would
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: be subject to boarding.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Very possible.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: There's actually an Iranian tanker which was I think either
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: inport at India or very close.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: It was about to offload.
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: But then these new sanctions actually went snap backed. And
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: so remember we gave that waiver and India was like, okay,
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: I'll buy them. Now it's like, oh, maybe we won't
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: buy them. So it's very weird, and look, it's confused.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: If you were to try to read the tea leaves. Generally,
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: I look at the military force thousands more troops. Aircraft
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: carrier just needs a week or two more to get there.
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: You've got the Chairman and Heggsta Scenic beating their yeah,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: scenic route AKA away from the Hoho Thies. I don't know,
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, I guess I could see it otherwise. You know,
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: some potential deal. I just I don't see why the
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: Iranians would agree to it, but they might. I mean,
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: I was talking to you about this before. I think
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: they've been quite cautious. Actually, you know, we're told that
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: they're so irrational. They horizontally escalated during the war. They
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: agreed to a ceasefire, probably was to their detriment. At
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: this point, a street is laid out because Trump could
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: just walk away at any time, whereas they've only got
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: about sixty days till they run out of oil storage,
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: and then it's genuinely existential for them if they do
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: agree to some deal. You know, could they really have
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: confidence at Israel in the United States wouldn't violate that?
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, how could you possibly? At this point it
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: doesn't seem to structurally aligned. But the Iranians have a
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: lot to lose too. Israel in the US would wipe
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: out their entire power plan set them back forty fifty years.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: It really would be a disaster.
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: And we shouldn't pretend these Iranians who are in power,
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: they've got a lot of money on the line as well.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: They're all phenomenally rich and they own a lot of
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: property and other assets. Same with the IRGC who controls
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: the smuggling economy. So maybe that's what's in it for them.
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know which way it's going to go.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: Ital It's easy to sit here not being the ones
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: like under bombardment, seeing your girls schools and your hospitals
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: and your top university destroyed and infrastructure and all of that,
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: and say here's the rational, you know, strategic hardline position
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: you should strike. It's a very different thing when you're
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: living that and you know people who have been killed
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: and you have you know, you've got a lot personally
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: and like on a human level, very much on the line.
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: But to your point, hag Seth. In this briefing, he says.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: He warned they'd be warned iron to choose wisely or
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: face the US forces maximumly posture to resume their attacks.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: American blockade Ran will continue as long as necessary, he said,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: so very belligerent language. Now, that can also be, you know,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: a negotiating tactic right to put pressure on them. Could
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: also be that the whole negotiation is yet another ruse
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: for the US to get ourselves together and get more
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: forces into the region and regroup. Israel, we know, was
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: down to double digits in terms of interceptors, So they
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: were in a they were you know, hurting, they were
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: in a bad way, and so this may all just
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: be delaying tactics from the US. It could be that
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: we have no intention of making a deal. It could
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: be that the Iranians really have no intention of making
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: a deal and just want to sort of performatively share
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: to the world that look, we're willing to come to
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: the table. We're not unreasonable. These are our demands. If
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: they're able to meet them, fine, If not, then we've
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: got other cards to play. I just want to emphasize that,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: you know, we talk about these blockades in this kind
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: of aniseptic language, this is warfare, right, It is an
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: act of war. And the announcement this morning means that
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: it is the most maximalist version of the US blockade
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: that could have been imagined that could potentially trigger a
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: retaliation from the Iranians. Now what would that look like,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: That would look like getting the hoo Thies engage and
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: closing off the babel nandab straight. Their calculation is that
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: we will be the ones to squeal first, because for
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: us this is not existential. The political landscape obviously tenuous
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: to say the least. American consumers already getting hurt. Energy
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: crisis globally on the way, if not already here, So
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: that is their calculation. They have significant amounts still as
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: storage capacity, and domestically they also have the Iranians have
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: some you know, significant number of barrels of oil that
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: are already you know, sort of stored on the waterways,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: so they do have some wiggle room. Do we really
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: have two months more where the American people are going
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: to tolerate gas prices going up and up and up
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: indefinitely and some sort of very likely stock market crash
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: and whatever that looks like ultimately, So I don't know.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: You know, there's a doctor Parci who, of course, I
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: you know, take his analysis very seriously because I think
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: he's such an intelligent and thoughtful person about all of this.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: He thinks the most likely outcome is that there isn't
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: an actual deal, but everybody just sort of walks away.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: I do have to say, though, I'm not sure that
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: that is sustainable. So does that mean the US drops
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: the blockade? That seems like kind of a you know, could.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Be a block laden name only it could be uh yeah,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: I don't.
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: Know, because as long as you're like, we may not
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: be the most hurt by still having limited capacity and
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: barrels taken off the market through the Straight of Hormuz,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: but we will be hurt by that. And the situation
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily feel sustainable. So it's very difficult to see
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: what happens. I could see the Iranians just you know,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: giving in on things that frankly they probably shouldn't because
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: they're war weary and the leaders have a lot at stake.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: I could see the US using this as a ruse.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: I could see any I could see the Tree to
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Parsi scenario of you know, there's some sort of low
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: grade conflict that just sort of continues and there's a new,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: you know, worst status quo that is achieved.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: Any of these things are possible.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: But that's without even starting to talk about Israel, which
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: of course is going to do everything possible to drag
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: us back into Warren is another wild Yeah.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: And then here's a breaking news from tanker trackers who
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: is I forget the guy name.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: I really recommend everybody go follow him.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: He does not only the visual he does satellite visual analysis,
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: but also looks at those radio signals. Here's what he says.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: He says breaking visual confirmation. Iran has shipped out nine
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: million barrels of crude oil from floating storage in the
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: Gulf of Oman since the US blockade went into effect.
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: Another two million barrels departed on four to twelve, twenty
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: twenty six.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: What do we make of that? I don't know, right,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: So nine million barrels.
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: So according to him, there have been some nine million
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: barrels that were able to depart. Again, he uses satellite imagery,
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: radio signals and others before he is able to confirm it,
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: and he is. He is cited very often by the
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal of the Times and taken as a
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: very serious source. So it's one of those where the
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: US Navy, at the very same time right now is
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: a General Kine is in front of the podium saying
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: that the blockade has turned back thirteen different ships, and
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: that a message to all ships that they will be
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: turning away from Iranian ports. So I really don't know
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: how much of this. That's another thing, you know, the
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: Navy says all kinds of things. Well, they said all
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: kinds of things during the war. Half of it wasn't
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: even true. The Iranians say a lot of shit too,
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: A lot of it's also not true, So we have
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: to we don't even know what the status of said
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: blockade is. Remember I said about the Straits of horm Moves,
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: how the countries involved, like Oman and others, they won't
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: even let the journalists go to or moves and to
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: take pictures, so we really don't know what's actually moving
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: through the straight And then those satellite companies they're not
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: showing us anything, so we don't even know what's there.
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: At the request of the US government, just take it
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: all with a serious grain of salt.
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, So let's turn to this live golf
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: news which is definitely could be related to the Iran
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: where it appears it's related to the Iran war. So
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: let's put this up on the screen for background.
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: Live golf.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: Is this startup golf League meant to compete with the
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: PGA Tour. And I think their tagline is like Gulf
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: but louder, and they like play music and they have
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: these team events and they hired away or they lured
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: away from the PGA Tour some major stars like Bryce.
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: And d Champeau.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: They offered gobs like ungodly amounts of money to him
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: and gen rob and Brooks. Koepko has actually gone back
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: now to the PGA Tour and others to sign up
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: with them, and so a lot of people looked at
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: that and were like, I'm going to get the bag.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: So there's been this ongoing war between Live Golf and PGA,
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: and it's really created this huge divide in golf. Trump
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: is affiliated with the Live Tour because he has hosted
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: several events at his properties. We don't know how much
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: money he's making him that and he had another connection
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: between him and his family and the Saudis et cetera. Well,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: now it looks like the Saudis may be cutting their
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: support for Live Golf, which would be a death. Now
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: this thing is it's not profitable. It really hasn't picked
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: up a huge market share. They've had a lot of
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: different issues, including the guys that chose to go to
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: live golf have not performed particularly well in major events
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: like the Masters. This past weekend, Kyle told me I
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: should I should let everybody know just how poorly like
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Bryson performed really poorly, didn't even make the cut. There
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: was a point in time where the live golf guys
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: at the Masters were actually underperforming the Champions Tour guys.
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: Who are the seniors.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: They were doing explain that again, like the Citizens.
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: Yes, they're on the Senior Tour.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know anything about that.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: They're on the Senior Tour and they were doing better
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: than the live golf guys.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: So it is not the same course.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the same event playing against each other. So it
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: has not been good for them in terms of their
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: golf performance, has been very good for their bank accounts,
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: and it's created all this enmity. It's kind of created
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: like a villain hero all these architects whatever.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: So so anyway, let me let me go ahead and
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: dig in a little bit to this article with that
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: as backgrounds. An announcement on the future of the Kingdom's
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: involvement in live which has racked up huge losses since
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: being set out five years ago, could come as soon
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: as Thursday. Lives demise would represent a significant blow to
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: the kingdom near one trillion dollar public investment fund, which
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: has invested about five billion in the tour, and to
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: its governor, a keen golfer, who was the crucial figure
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: in its rise. And indeed there was they say, well,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: the plan was drawn up before the US Israel war
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: against Iran, but they're saying that quote, of course, the
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: war would add more pressure to reposition some priorities. So
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: this is not only significant for the golf war, but obviously, look,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: the Iran war has been really devastating to these golf economies,
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia among them. And those economies, what was this
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: sovereign wealth fund? What were they investing in? Well, all
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: sorts of sports things and celebrity thing but also all
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: sorts of tech things. Tons of money flowing from the
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: golf region into American businesses, American media companies. And so
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: this is the first very clear sign that they are
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: pulling back and reassessing. Let's go and put that second
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: element up on the screen here.
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: Seven. So this is the broader picture, not just about
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: live golf.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Saudi Wealth Fund resets priorities After a decade of heavy spending,
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia's nearly one trillion dollar public investment fund has
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: launched a new five year investment strategy that will narrow
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: its focus to six areas that include tourism and manufacturing
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: as it reprioritizes it's spending. So Saga, you've probably seen
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: some of these like very high profile, flashy development projects
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: they have, like the Wine which was supposed to be
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: the city that's like all in a row. They're reducing
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: their investment in that. There were some other major, like
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: very splashy developments that they're pulling back on as well
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: as they reset their priorities. And as I said before,
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of its pre dates the Iran War, but
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: clearly the hit to their economy and the damage to
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: the notion that that region is going to be some
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: tourism magnet forever for the world's global elite that has
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: probably taken more of a hit in this war than
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: anything else.
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, in some ways, it's really foolish to
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: say that the war is over. There's still not a
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: drop of oil that's moving through the Straits of Horn
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: Moves compared to where it used to be, like you
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: need millions and millions of barrels. I mentioned this in
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: our last show. I think I read the new OPEK
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: announcement for the month of March twenty seven percent cut
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: in production.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: That is, so do the math.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's a huge haircut on the amount that
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: these countries were able to make. Saudi actually did better
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: than everybody else because they can export through Yanbu and
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: through the Red Sea.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: But a lot of these other countries they did they
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: hadn't exported.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: A drop of oil or very little oil since the
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: conflict began.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: So think about it.
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, could any business or country survive an entire
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: month of no sales or you know, two five percent sales? No,
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: it would be an existential you don't threat to anybody. Yeah,
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: now let's put to this a seven up on the
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: screen because this gets to your bigger point. The Saudi
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: bigger The Public Investment Fund, the PIF has now launched
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: this five year investment strategy. They say that it's going
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: to narrow its focus. But the thing is about it is,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: as they know, the decade of heavy spending, and this
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: comes back to live golf, is they have spent oceans
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: of money on all kinds of crazy soft power things
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: here in the US. So, for example, Live Golf EA Sports,
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: remember that they acquired for like fifty five billion dollars
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: something crazy.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: They do all this Formula one, the Formula one the
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: Women's tennis Tour.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: Is that you know, a flag football I think at
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: one point, you know, I mean boxing, like all of
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: these different soft power things that they were throwing money into. Well,
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: when you take a huge haircut on your production and
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: you see geopolitical risk, you're like, well, maybe we're going
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: to squelch a lot of that in Well, that's not
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: just the cultural stuff. Remember it is also venture capital,
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: the PIF, the QIA, the Katari Investment, like all of
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: these other funds. They are huge, huge shareholders and actually
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: you know investors in data out data center, outbuild. You
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: also have this in some of the more speculative companies.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: And then even at the higher level Uber. Remember a
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: massive chunk of Uber is owned by Saudi Arabia, A
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: massive chunk of like some of the biggest venture capital
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: at backed firms even listing on the Stock Exchange are
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: massive outsize positions with Saudi Arabia. So what if they
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: have to sell off. What are we going to do?
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: We don't know, and you could actually see this cascading
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: effect happen. I mean, you know, I'm from Texas. We
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: were famous at the time.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: For our malls, like the Galleria. You know, it's all
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: by the Kuwaiti World family.
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: Like it's one of those where you could actually, I
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: mean just think about it, like, Okay, so they got
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: no money, they got domestic problems.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: What are they gonna do.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: They're gonna sell it off. It's a nice mall. I
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: never thought it was that great, but people love it
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: a lot. But maybe they sell it and people, you know,
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: it sound like malls are thriving here, so maybe they
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: sell it off. These are cadre like small things. But obviously,
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: you know, it all stacks up, like if you start
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: selling off stuff, you start pulling money out of the US.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: It's not like consumers are doing all that well. Are
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: people really going to want to invest that in there?
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: This ocean of money has been the lifeblood of any
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: you know, would be a company which needs like cheap
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: and accessible large capital. Same with I think we were
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: Remember it was backed by the Japanese guy forget his name,
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: massite Ushisan and his large amounts of his money came
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: from Saudi Arabia, so their money is everywhere and everything.
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: It actually funds a lot of the more speculative stuff
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: here in the United States. If it dries up, huge problem,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: huge problem for America.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: Well on the golf piece, you know, for these guys
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: who are still there with live golf and like this
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: part of their brand and identity, Phil Nicholson being chief
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: among them, Bryce and d Shambeau, John Rahm. It's I
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: don't know what the PGA Tour is going to do
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: because apparently brooks Kopka just left relatively recently and they
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: made him like pay a fine and there was some
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: you know, criminations, didn't They says, you can't participate in
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: you can come back.
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: This is the only time to come back. It's never
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: gonna happen again. You pay the fine or whatever, and
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: we accept you back with open arms.
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Maybe a deal, it's possible, but so I'm not sure
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: how they will approach these guys, but it's certainly not
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: just going to be like come on back in. They
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: may have to, you know, they may have to go
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: to the corn ferry tour, which is sort of like
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: the minor leagues of golf and like work their way up.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: They may have to pay big fines, They may be
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: completely banned. I mean, I think the PGA tour. Apparently
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Corn and Kyle they just like completely hate Phil Nicholson
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: at this point, they may just not take him back
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: at all.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: So after the consequences, Yeah.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: So for the the golf fans out there that will
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: this will all be very very interesting to watch and fold.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: But with that being said, why don't we get ahead
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: and get to some of the economic consequences we are
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: already seeing.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Let's do it all, right, shall we?
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: So interesting fight between Scott Besson and Fox News yesterday
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: over the administration's promises to Americans.
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: With regard to gas prices. Let's go and take us
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: into that.
• 37:01
  Speaker 6: Secretary said, it doesn't sound like we're going to have
• 37:03
  Speaker 6: three dollars a gallon gas by summertime, which we had
• 37:07
  Speaker 6: initially been told by the by the Energy Secretary. He
• 37:11
  Speaker 6: now says that it would be very aggressive if we're
• 37:16
  Speaker 6: going to get to the three dollars gallon gas by
• 37:19
  Speaker 6: the summer. So when are we really going to get
• 37:21
  Speaker 6: three dollars a gallon gas.
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: Well, I think that's going to be the up to
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: how the negotiations go. President Trump said this morning that
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: he thinks we're nearing the end. The US kept their
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: side on the ceasefire. We've stopped firing. The straights O
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: removed have not been completely reopened. So we will see.
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: And I'm optimistic that during the summer we will see
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: gas with a three in front of it, sooner rather
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: than later.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: Gas with the three in front of it, sooner rather
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: than later. We shall see on the same week. Obviously,
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: is pointing to the fact that Trump's midterms gas prices
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: might build.
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: Moving the goalpost in front of it. Before the war,
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: that was better. The two is better than the three.
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: The good it was two ninety a gallon whenever they
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: watched the war. Yeah, average, that's good.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: That's very good.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: Well, and meanwhile, you know this is all entirely predictable.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Let's put this up from the New York Times town Smith,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: who's a great reporter over there focused on economics. He
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: has this piece about how Corporate America is aiming to
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: preserve their profit streak during the war in Iran. Higher
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: inflation is leading companies to raise prices so that they
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: don't have to sacrifice their margins. How nice for them
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: that they're able to do that. Let me read you
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit of this article. From the start of
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: the twenty twenties, American businesses have been formidable in maintaining
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: and growing their profits. Despite the gauntlet of challenges of
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: pandemic tariff, high inflation wars, and key commodity hubs, profits
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: have leaped ahead. Corporate profits have reached a record share
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: of the US Economy data show, and a measure of
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: margins that tracks the difference between input costs for businesses
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: and the final selling price of goods and services to
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: customers is also.
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: Near a record high.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: It's completely shocking, said Josh Brown, the chief executive of
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: Ritholt's wealth management. Companies have become really, really good at
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: managing risk. I like the way he frames that they
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: are practically ninjas at this point. Ninjas at what at
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: price gouging you at making sure that even if their
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: inputs go up at all, there when you increase the prices,
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: perhaps not just to reflect the new reality of the
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: cost of goods, but to even increase their profit margins further.
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: This is exactly what we saw during COVID. Once you
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: had inflation and you had inflation expectations set in, what
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: actually drove a lot of the increases in prices was
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: gre inflation.
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: There's been studies on this.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: At this point, we were considered cooks at the time
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: for even talking about it, But now there have been
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: studies that showed some sixty percent of the actual increased
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: prices to consumers was from companies saying, oh, well, I
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: can get away with lifting prices because people have an
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: expectation of inflation. You don't think they're going to do
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: that that same thing again, They're already doing it, and
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: we're already starting to see, you know, Amazon surcharges and
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: other companies saying sorry, we've got to increase costs. I
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: don't doubt that there already are increased costs in a
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: lot of regards, but they will also go beyond what
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: is necessary, and they certainly are not going to be
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: the ones bearing any of those costs, even though their
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: profit margins are higher than they've ever been. The profit
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: margin is and percent of the economy is the highest
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: that it's ever been, so they could afford to shoulder
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: some of that burden to help try to mitigate the
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: increases and prices they're going to choose, and they're already
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: choosing to do the polar opposite.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just I'm going to call for this. Let's let's
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: go ahead and add it in after. But my wife
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: made me aware. The US next week will launch a
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: tariff refund system on April twentieth. It will refund approximately
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty six billion dollars that companies had
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: to pay in tariffs. Do you think at any point
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: that you or I will get a refund for any
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: of that, for any of the increased price that now remember.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: The company will get it.
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they will receive not just cash, cash with interest
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: which was held by the United States government. Thus, we
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: would reason those consumers of US who paid higher prices whenever,
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: if and when it was passed on to us. Will
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: any of us just wake up to on a beautiful
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: April twenty for my birthday, actually April twenty first, we're
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: gonna wake up and I'm just gonna see all of
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: these credit card refunds from No, okay, they're gonna take
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: the cash, and what are they gonna do? Buy back
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: their own stock, give out bonuses and maybe you know
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: some bigger customers and credits. Well, actually money will change hand,
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: but where's that money gonna go. It's definitely not to
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: any of us. And that's what's bullshit. I mean when
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: you think about it. And I was looking to at,
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: you know, a car seat. Remember I was very concerned
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: because at that time, it was April. We it was
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: right before the Liberation Day, was like right before about
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: to have a baby.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: And I remember because we already bought all of our.
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: Stuff, but the pricing East was like several hundred dollars
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: for a lot of these car seats. Car seat hasn't
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: gone down. I just checked Liberation days over. Guess what
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: still high still up there? So you know, shout out
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: to up a baby and whatever NOUNA and all these
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: other companies they're printing, right, and it's not like people
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: are gonna stop. Regulation says you got to keep buying
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: a new one. So what do you do a couple
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars three four hundred? Oh what's that to them?
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: They're they're they're making plenty of money and so yeah,
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: they might be paying some tariff. I actually I ordered
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: a jacket from Japan. I had to pay a tariff,
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: so I'm going to see if I can go and
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: apply for my refund.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: As technically I think I was the importer on that one.
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: But multiply that by like again one hundred and sixty
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: six billion. But I think that the greedflation point and
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: the price gouging one there is really important because the
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: price remains permanent even when the tariff goes away. And
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: when they're literally going to get a refund, where is
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: the money going to go. I mean, it's going to
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: be a bonanza. And I told you that there was
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: this insane loan system on Wall Street where Wall Street
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: was reasonably certain that the tariffs were going to get overruled, right,
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: so they were loaning money on the dollar to companies
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: and they're saying, hey, here's eighty cents on the dollar
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: of what you're going to get back, but when you
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: get it back in the future, you have to pay
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: it back. So the banks are going to make a
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: ton of money off of all this.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: The only people who lost.
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: Anything is any small business who import export, the consumer economy,
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: which definitely took a hit consumer confidence and yeah, but
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: the big, the big guys, they're printing. Yeah, that's why
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: everyone's always like, oh, the markets, they're so disconnected from reality.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: Like not really, it's just that we're disconnected from the
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: overall like input. We expect that when we don't do well,
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: that the market don't will they just don't doesn't.
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: It doesn't work.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: That's why the S and P hit at all time
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: high yesterday.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, in a lot of ways, it's an it's a
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: like reverse indicator, because I mean, one of the things
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: companies get most reported for is when they do mass
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: layoffs and like implement AI instead of human beings.
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: Is that good for you?
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: No?
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: Is it good for their profit mark? Is it good
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: for their stock price? Absolutely? So that is one of
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: the clearest ways in which there is a mass disconnect.
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: Let's puk B five up on the screen.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Because one of the things that the Trump administration has
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: really been hanging their hat on is that Emily's been
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: telling us about this.
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: She's like, guys, here's what they think. They think.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, Trump's approval rating is down and they're not
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: happy with this economic handling. But wait till tax season.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: Wait till Americans get to marvel at the glory of
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: all of the new benefits that they got from the
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: one big, beautiful bill. That's when things will turn around.
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that Emily believe that. I'm just saying
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: that she's the one who told us that's the way
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: that the White House was thinking about this.
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: Well, now the numbers are in.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: The White House expected the average increase in refund to
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: be seven hundred dollars to one thousand dollars. The reality
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: is closer to three hundred and seventy five dollars. Bottom line, Yes,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: refunds are higher in twenty twenty six, but it's less
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: of a spending booth than many expected. Three hundred and
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: seventy five dollars. How quickly has that already been eaten
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: up soager by the increasing gas prices?
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: Like it's nothing, It's.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: Already less than a wash in terms of the economic
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: policies of this administry. And as before you count in
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: tariffs and any of these other things. So you know,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: if they were thinking that this extra three hundred bucks
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: in your pocket was going to really turn things around,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know what to tell you
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: about that.
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: These guys just never get it, you know. I remember
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: this Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Remember I told you
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: I was in't that meeting with Paul Ryan. This was
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: like ten years ago, and he's like, Oh, that's enough
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: to remodel your kitchen sink or something, or maybe get
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: a new sink. I think that that was a line
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: from my Kia and I was like, dude, you're talking
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: about five hundred bucks and more times over an entire year,
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: Like that's just not how people think. Like when there
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: gas is a perfect example of something that's very like
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: in your face.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: There's a sign everywhere you go.
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: Most people you have to fill up, you know, at
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: the very once or twice a week, or sorry, once
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: or twice a month at the very least frequent drivers
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: are filling up all the time, so it really like
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: hits you in the face. The other one is food inflation,
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: and if you do the math, like it's just not
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: enough to keep up with basic food inflation, definitely with
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: gas inflation. I also think that the dollars, you know,
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: it becomes a real nickel and dime conversation because an
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: extra five hundred a month, I'll take it. I talked
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: about this yesterday with the baby check when which never happened,
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: but they were floating a five thousand dollars for every family.
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: I'm like, look, thank you, but my deductible was seventy
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: five hundred dollars on the day then my child was born.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: So great, but there's a bigger problem here.
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: That thing didn't even actually happen.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: No, we never got that fight.
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: They talked about it like it was a done deal.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: Well, I think you're thinking of the Trump account we
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: did by the way we did elect.
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: We got our Oh you got your Okay, that.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Got my trump back.
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: I got.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Well, that's a thousand bucks. That's one thousand dollars.
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: Which you know, if we invest entirely in the S
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: and P, will be worth like three thousand dollars when
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: my daughter is eighteen. So thank you, I guess. But
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: you know, if healthcare inflation and education inflation is what
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: it's like fifteen eighteen percent a year, the college I
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: went to, do you know about this? The college I
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: went to, Georgia GW is now charging one hundred thousand years.
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: I'm telling you, as an alumnus, don't fucking do it. Okay,
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: don't do it. Don't give them. And if you're an
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: alumni like me, when you fuckers call me, fuck you,
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: all right, you think I'm gonna give you a dollar
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: when you're charging people one hundred thousand dollars a year.
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: First of all, don't pay it. That's the only way
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: to actually get around it. But how many of these
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: other private universities in all these other places, So this
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: is where the right your daughters can get out of college.
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: So this is where you know, talking about three four
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: hundred bucks. Sure, look, it's it's good. But when we've
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: got runaway healthcare inflation, runaway education inflation, and what's the
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: mortgage rate today six point eight difference between six point
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: eight and where things were five years ago, it's not.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: All up to the president. That's still double.
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: That is thousands of dollars more per month on what
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: is that several you know, potentially if you actually do
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: the whole thirty year, I mean several hundred k depending
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: on the price of house that you're buying.
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: Here's the other thing is that a lot of the
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: direct economic problems we're having right now are are directly
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: because of Trump's decisions. It wasn't COVID, it wasn't a
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: natural disaster. It wasn't you know, some business cycle that's
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: sort of you know, out of the hands of the brother. No,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: this was because of tariffs, It's because of the Aaron War.
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, you can directly see, oh, he made this choice,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: and now I am suffering for it. I am suffering
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: for it. That is honestly extremely unique to see such
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: a direct line between Trump has taken control of this
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: economy and made it measurably worse for me. I I
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: am so glad you guys covered the door dash grandma
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: such because I found that to be so disgusting and
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: so revealing. But it's such a perfect it's it's so
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: perfectly emblematic of the situation. Like, Okay, she's she's benefiting, right,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: We're we're absolutely she's benefiting from one of the provisions
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: that got put in here.
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: She drives her door dash.
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: There's no way that that's even going to make up
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: for the increased gas prices that she's now having to
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: deal with because of the Iran war.
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: Let alone.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: Obviously, you know the fact that structurally you're celebrating this
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: burd She can't she can't afford the cancer treatments for
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: her husband. Like, what kind of a society is this?
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: This is sick and you're asking for one point five
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: trillion dollars so we can bomb little girls in foreign
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: countries more. It's disgusting to see that and to even
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: celebrate the idea that a grandma would have to go
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: and pick up this gig work to be able to
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: afford healthcare. And you think this is a glowing example
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: of your amazing economic policy. What an incredible disconnect. So,
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's but it is really the perfect symbol
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: of the way this White House is thinking about economic policy.
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: And now the rubbers hit the road in terms of
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: how small the improvement is for most people in terms
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: of their refunds. Let me go ahead and see if
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: I can rage bait Sager here. I don't think it's
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: going to be very hard. Let's put b seven up
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: on the screen and see what you think about this one, Sager.
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: So we've got some new numbers here.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: A twenty five year old married couple that earns one
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year, they're going to
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: pay over three thousand dollars more in federal income tax
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: for twenty twenty five than a sixty five year old
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: married couple with the exact same income.
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: Note assumes no Social.
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: Security sixty five year old couple is waiting to age
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: seventy to get max benefit in this person asked Sager,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: is this a fair tax?
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a question for society, right, this is
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: a great question for society. Twenty five year old married
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: couple making one hundred and fifty k doing great. By
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: the way, if you're twenty five year old married couple,
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: first of all, you're statistically an anomaly to even be
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: married at that age. And you're one hundred and fifty
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars, congratulations, You think you have made it, But no,
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: you have not done nearly enough and are not contributing
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: apparently than this sixty five year old married couple delaying
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: Social Security is still making income, decent income, one hundred
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: and fifty thousand, decent money, no matter basically where you
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: live in the US outside of a very high cost
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: of living area. It's madness. And this is what the
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: latest bill has done. Can we put B four up
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: here on the screen? So I went through the Treasury
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: press release that came out yesterday and it says over
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: fifty three million filers claimed at least one of Trump's
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: signature new task cuts. Now what they tout a lot
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: is the DoorDash Grandma one the eleven thousand to these
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: tipped workers. Okay, great, you know, not here to steal
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: tips from anybody. Really happy, if we're being honest, most
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: of you weren't reporting it anyways. But okay, now let's
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: go and down to the actual sixth single largest deduction
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: that happened as a result of this tax bill. Thirty
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: million seniors claimed something called the Enhanced Deduction for Senior
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: which has an average deduction of seventy five one hundred dollars.
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: That means thirty million seniors deducted two hundred and twenty
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: five billion from their taxable income as a result of
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: this tax bill, which means and contributes to that statistic
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: which we just showed you where the twenty five year
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: old married couple is also is going to pay thirty
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: five hundred dollars more in taxes explicitly because of this
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: senior deduction. And this makes us so that eighty eight
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: percent of all American seniors who are on Social Security
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: now receive it completely tax free.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: And as I said in the past, I think.
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: It is a little weird to give people social Security
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: that haven't pay taxes on it.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: It doesn't make a lot of sense.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: Now that said, if we're explicitly just going to carve out,
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: you know, real enhanced deductions, some two hundred and twenty
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: five billion in deductions, I'd.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: Spread it around a little bit more. I don't know
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: about you.
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: Maybe I think the child tax credit max deduction is
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: something like with two children is like forty four hundred bucks.
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: So just for the privilege of being old, you get
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: seventy five hundred on your tax. And let's combine this
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: with all the property tax stuff that you guys know
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: I've laid out. We now have boomers in this country
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: who get to recap their school tax, reduce their property tax,
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: they get an enhanced deduction for the privilege of being old.
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: They get tax free income from the government. They get
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: basically tax subsidize healthcare from the government, massively expensive health care.
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: To the twenty five year old married couple who is
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: paying all of their bills. If you net net, they
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: will receive vastly more it from the system than they
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: ever paid out.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Just for everybody who says, oh.
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: They earned it, No they didn't. They earned some of it.
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: They probably earned around two thirds of it. I'm sorry
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: it's maddening. And look, you know, this is the age warfare,
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: which I know a lot of people get uncomfortable about,
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: but like, I'm sorry, it's true. They are waging it
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: upon us. Now we can have a universalist type system,
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: but it is going to take serious taxation of a
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: large segment of the rich, which yes includes the elderly.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Sorry, it's just empirically true.
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: And to watch, you know, just the way that they
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: are very comfortable with all of these, you know, for
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: people who say, build up in your bootstraps, hand out
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: after handout after handout, and then to see the government basically,
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: you know, celebrate this as if it's some working family. Like, No,
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: this is explicitly the largest tax cut in history for
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: old people. That's it.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: That's the That's what Trump has done. Yeah, maybe we.
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: Should have expected that all along. I think it's sick.
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: Any society can look at this and say this is sick, and.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: It's very I mean, it's in the wayst political patronage too.
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: There's the most committed supports Actually, I think gen X
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: supports him a little bit more than boomers. But in
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: any case, gen X like sort of barely exists as
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: a generation is the smallest one. But you know, boomers
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: are the Fox News Boomers are the ones who are
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: still with him the most aggressively.
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: And they would watch that they would have a brain
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: ag well, which I would end up paying.
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: Remember when he talked about like, oh, well we can't
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: bring home prices down, because yeah, I mean, that's that's
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: the way he thinks about it. And he thinks very
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: much in terms of political patronage, and oh this group
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: help mes, I'm going to help them, and so you know,
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: like listen, great for people to be able to benefit.
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: But if you just ask yourself, Okay, this is the
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: funds that are available for a tax cut, who's in
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: need of that tax cut?
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: This would be about the last group that.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: You pick, because not only that, but what is the
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: likelihood but that that older couple owns their own home
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: and is also receiving the benefit of the marked interest
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: deduction versus the likelihood that the twenty five year old couple,
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: which is like virtually certain that they don't own their
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: own homes, so they're not benefiting from that. They're having
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: to put out rent. There's no tax advantage from that whatsoever.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: So it's not just on that one front, it's in
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: a whole variety of ways that the system is more
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: favorable for that older couple versus that twenty five year
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: old married couple. And then you know, obviously bigger picture
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: like the massive corporate tax breaks, the billionaires who pay
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: no taxes whatsoever and are able to ring the system
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: to their benefit.
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: The fact that we're putting out.
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: That Trump wants a one point five trillion dollars to
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: go to these defense industrial complex, war profiteers, et cetera.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, the whole priority is incredibly.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: So it's bullshit. Yeah, you know, boomers.
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: I'm just really happy that you guys can go out
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: and buy some more jet skis and second houses and
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: I don't know, whatever the nonsense casinos, Yeah, enjoy all right,
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: put five on black from Actually, no, you can't even
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: put five on anything anymore. Put twenty five on black
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: for me. All right, let's go to sayat Marandi, he
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: is standing by for us