Latest / Disguised Coverage / Inside Bills vs Chiefs: Preview, X's & O's, Breakdown, & more | DC

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Inside Bills vs Chiefs: Preview, X's & O's, Breakdown, & more | DC · Disguised Coverage

0:00
It's thirty eight. All bills can win in here, Wake puts it down.
0:03
The kick is on the way and dock m the bell good one?
0:07
How the hell that one home? How one? They were a party one
0:14
not party way? Incredible? Why not combat by my bell? Jacksonville's perfect
0:21
record on the line right here, quick kicking, look excited. Touchdown Kyle
0:43
Williams touchdound amazing, unbelievable. They puttied william who's hats to full back and
0:56
he scores a touchdown. It's wealthier to face tackle. What's good? Folks,
1:17
Family, friends, loved ones, enemies, friend of mees, wizards,
1:19
which is muggles, mud bloods, people a middlert to another episode of
1:23
Disguised Coverage. The only podcast in existence that gives you an equal amount of
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blueberries in each muffin, and that is presented by the best Pizza in Buffalo,
1:30
New York, and that is One Pie Pizza. Find me online menu
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in the episode show notes, whether here on YouTube or and or whichever podcasting
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Apple platform you are listening to this show on. I am your host,
1:41
Anthony Prohaska. Find me on Twitter at pro Underscore Underscore and that's Pro two
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Underscores A N t Intnight's episode of Disguise Coverage. Once again, it is
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Kansas City Chiefs Week, much like it was earlier in this twenty twenty three
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regular season, and much like the I Forget what You're the Bills have played
2:00
the Chiefs and the playoffs because it feels like it just happens every year except
2:02
for this past year. But it is Chiefs Week again. We're going to
2:05
dive into that here on Disguise Coverage. I'm joined by a familiar face which
2:08
I'll be bringing up onto the stage with me shortly to get into the x's
2:13
and o's and the scheme and structure and the bones and the guts of Bills
2:16
versus Chiefs. What to watch for, who to watch for, why,
2:21
what will go very far in terms of determining the fates of both of the
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Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. On the back end of this episode,
2:29
we're going to dive into questions from the live chat that was a really fun
2:31
aspect that we did last week. It's been a chaotic schedule with everything for
2:37
the Bills and how that relates to show content and everything with the Bills game
2:39
getting moved to Monday and then the show being here on Tuesday. Things are
2:44
all out of whack. So let's dive into some live questions from the chat
2:46
on the back end of the episode. So anything you're thrown up in the
2:50
beginning here with the live chat, I'm going to start. I'll keep it
2:52
to the back end and we'll get through some questions, thoughts, comments,
2:53
concerns, anything and everything in regards to that. But, like I mentioned,
2:58
the crux of this episode, the eat of this episode will be focused
3:02
on detailing the game of the year right now for the Buffalo Bills, and
3:07
every game going forward, if they continue to go forward, will be the
3:08
game of the year. But this one has a little extra juice for it
3:12
because of who it comes up against. The dragon that the Buffalo Bills have
3:16
not been able to slay in the playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs. They
3:21
come to town for the first time, they come to Buffalo, and to
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detail that game, to break down that game, to get into the scheme
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and structure and bones and guts of this matchup, I bring to the stage
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my guest, mister Matt Lane of the Case Sports Network, who I hope
3:38
everybody is familiar with at this point. By now, I think I've brought
3:40
you on, Matt pretty much. I think every Chiefs matchup for the past
3:46
couple of years, at the very least, I always have a great time
3:49
talking ball with you. Last time we had a bit of a marathon episode
3:53
together with how I love the way you and your whole team at Casey Sports
3:58
Network, the way you present your content. You guys break down the game
4:00
and then you know, I gravitate towards your work, you know, knowing
4:02
the x's and o's, the scheme is, and everything for the Chiefs,
4:08
their opponents, football in general. You're an awesome dude, an awesome guest.
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Big Week welcome, Well, thank you for having me. I say
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it every time, but I really do that. There's a any other you
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know podcast that I will make time to come on anytime a matchup comes up,
4:21
and he's coming in here to hang out with you guys, talk little
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Chiefs bills one. It's always a fantastic game. I love talking to you
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guys for all of the exact same reason I love how you guys cover the
4:31
sport. It's a lot of fun to get down into the nitty gritty of
4:34
the stuff and not, you know, just always keep it surface level,
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like you know, it happens to have sometimes when you're doing other shows like
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this is this is always one of my favorite times. Here's my problem,
4:44
though. The Chiefs are now zero and two in the last two times I've
4:46
been here, and like, I feel like I'm bringing some mad mojo right
4:49
now. I don't know if this is working, so like this continues,
4:54
Oh, I don't know how to handle it from here. I think about
4:58
that each time with like when I have a like if I have like especially
5:00
for teams that think the Bills played twice, and I'll be like, oh,
5:03
you know, so and so is great, I'm gonna bring them back.
5:05
And I'm like, wait a minute, the Bills lost that first time,
5:09
do I is it super Am I leaving it too hard? In the
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superstition I've legitimately thought of that why And I think that's why I'm very superstitious,
5:15
and I think that's why, you know, we vibe even a little
5:17
more. And you know it's funny that, yeah, them being oering to
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these past two times. Yeah, that's right. Because last year the Bills
5:24
won in the regular season, Bill's Chiefs did not meet in the playoffs en
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route to another chief Super Bowl victory, and then the Bills won this regular
5:30
season game against Kansas City. But that's also kind of been the way this
5:36
matchup has shifted. I guess, you know. Really, since that twenty
5:41
twenty COVID matchup with the Chiefs in Buffalo that the Chiefs won, it's really
5:45
been the Bills controlling the regular season and then the Chiefs having those playoff victories.
5:50
This time, though, with the game being in Buffalo, does it
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give you any trepidation, any cause for concern for you? Is in a
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normal like it still Bill's Chief week or is there a little more worry on
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your end because it's not at Arrowhead this time in the playoffs. Yeah,
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I don't know. It's weird. It's been so long sin the Chiefs have
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played a road playoff game, I mean, besides like a super Bowl,
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And like, it's nuts that Mahomes is like, this is his first true
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and I know everybody knows it by now, but this is his first true
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road playoff game. That's nuts that either every year they're the one seed or
6:21
the seeds above them get eliminated, so they're always like it's nuts, how
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it's fallen for them in this Mahomes era, Yeah it is, and so
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like maybe as I'm trying to find the way right, wait, right way
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to say it here, right, like, I wonder for me it's not
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a big deal. I don't think they're gonna go on. I don't think
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this team is gonna go on the road and all of a sudden fall apart
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because yet, well, Super Bowls are technically a neutral site, They're not
6:45
a true road game. I think Andy Reive Patrick Mahomes, this iteration of
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the Chiefs team has enough experience playing on the road in big games or away
6:53
from home in Super Bowls that I don't think it's gonna overwhelm them. I
6:57
don't think they are gonna get to Buffalo and just kind of be like,
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oh, we don't have our home crowd behind us, it's not gonna work,
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right Like, I don't foresee that happening. But this also could be
7:06
somebody speaking who hasn't seen his favorite team have to play a road game in
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the playoffs in who five years now, right Like it hasn't been since Alex
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Smith was the quarterback and the Chiefs and that team feels so distant to what
7:18
this team is it's hard to even draw any parallels between them, so like,
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clearly going on the road is worse than playing at home. I don't
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mean to say that, it's just I don't know if I'm anticipating significant issues
7:30
for this team just because it's on the road. I think there will be
7:32
issues, but I don't know if it will be because of the location of
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the game, if that makes sense. No, I think that makes sense.
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And I'm in a similar boat, like I would much rather have this
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game be played in Buffalo than Arrowhead, Like if I get my choosing,
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but it doesn't make me feel better to the point where I'm like, oh,
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like crisis averted, I am. I feel it's like so great it's
7:53
getting Miami at home in the playoffs or something. No. Yes, No,
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it's still very much like match up pendant. And would I rather be
8:01
the home team? Yes, like absolutely, Now that could change. I
8:05
don't want to make that a blanket statement, like if I'm playing some I
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don't know, Like if I was playing the Greatest Show on turf Rams in
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the playoffs and I was I don't know, like the Saints, I might
8:16
not want to play him at home because I'm a dome team, but if
8:18
I'm the Eagles, I might feel better playing him, even more so at
8:20
home because I'm like, oh sweet, now it's outdoors. Maybe there's some
8:22
weather and we can limit what they are. But like with the Bills in
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Chiefs, I think they'll feel they'll feel the same kind of struggles if there
8:28
are any weather things. But generally, as a rule of thumb, I
8:31
would rather be the home team. I think that better serves the Bills in
8:33
this instance. But still I'm very I am very much. You know,
8:39
I'm a wrestling fan. I think everybody knows this, and Rick Flair one
8:41
of the greatest you know of all time. Even though I'm not a big
8:43
fan of Rick Flair, I hope nobody gets to have me in the comments
8:46
for that, but he has one of the best quotes of all time.
8:48
To be the man, you gotta beat the man, and the Chiefs are
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currently the man, still reigning Super Bowl champions, and even more so when
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it comes to the Bills, they are just like I said in the beginning,
8:58
like in the lead, and like they are that dragon, that villain,
9:01
that final boss that the Bills have not been able to vanquish. Come
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playoff time and playoff football is such a different beast. There's such a different
9:09
mentality and mindset to it overall, and then especially schematically and structurally, and
9:15
even more so when it comes to the Kansas City Chiefs because of Andy Reid,
9:18
because of Steve Spagnolo and what they do come playoff time. They are
9:22
very rarely the same team in the playoffs that you've seen in the regular season.
9:26
That's part of the reason why we've seen them pull off these victories against
9:31
the Bills in the playoffs, despite the fact that the Bills have owned the
9:33
regular season, because it's a different game, it's a different team. And
9:37
I say that to lead into this first question for you here, because you
9:39
had a tremendous point the last time you were here when man, it's so
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funny to think like where we are now versus where we were then in that
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conversation and both like the Bills and Chiefs were struggling coming into that regular season
9:52
mashup and yeah, see your face right away back, Oh yeah, yeah.
9:54
It was not a great situation for either team. The Bills needed that
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win a little bit more and the Chiefs did and ended up benefiting them greatly.
10:01
But the Chiefs came in there scuttling just like the Bills did, And
10:05
you had a really great point. You talked about how normally Andy Reid,
10:09
from an offensive perspective, usually will kind of keep some things in the holster
10:13
or in the chamber if he's playing a team in the regular season that he
10:16
anticipates playing again later in the playoffs. But you felt that that might be
10:22
different this time around in the regular season because the Chiefs were in a position
10:26
where they couldn't really play it safe given how their season was going and where
10:30
they were. They kind of had to not pull out all the stops,
10:33
but they couldn't afford to keep too much close to the chest or keep too
10:35
many things in the holster. Now that that game has passed and we are
10:39
where we are, we obviously know how that regular season game went for the
10:43
Bills of that twenty seventeen victory. Do you think he kind of played it
10:46
safe a little bit and kept some things in the holsterre do you think he
10:50
came close to kind of pulling out all the proverbial stops, Like, how
10:54
do you feel that first matchup between Bills and Chiefs will play into this second
10:58
match and you know versus what it's been, you know, the first verse
11:03
second matchup the past couple of years that they've done this. So in years
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past, they definitely have When the Chiefs have played the Bills, they have
11:09
kept it relatively vanilla on offense, Like Andy's still gonna have some of his
11:13
triggeration, play some of his designer stuff. But once he gets past his
11:18
opening script where he just wants to test teams out, he pulls back and
11:20
plays very vanilla, and he doesn't get Bills, Bengals, AFC teams he
11:24
expects to see in the playoffs. He does it pretty frequently, and then
11:28
this year I didn't know if he would do that because the Chiefs were struggling.
11:31
They needed to find some footing offensively, They needed to do some stuff
11:35
and figure out they need to do some soul searching. I don't think they
11:39
held back anything on purpose offensively in that game. I do think the Chiefs
11:43
have changed quite a bit since then, though, so what you get in
11:46
the playoffs might not look the same. It wasn't like in years past where
11:50
and he's just going out there and calling you know, his greatest hits,
11:54
going from back to two thousand and it's just his basic level, day one
11:56
day to install, like it has been in years past. But I do
12:01
think they've kind of developed a little bit since then. They use Rashi Reisberry
12:03
in particular, gets used a lot more in a lot of different ways you
12:07
pair that with and hey, it didn't work against the Dolphins, but it
12:11
was it was available mkole Hardman's return to health and like somebody that can actually
12:15
stretch defenses vertically. All of a sudden, now the playbook opened up a
12:18
little bit more for the Chiefs down the stretch of the season, and I
12:22
think you kind of that culminated in the Dolphins game, in which it beat
12:26
up defense. Don't get me wrong, but they still had like their best
12:28
offensive performance since Week seven, just in terms of yards, and the only
12:33
thing that stopped them was the red zone and an icy end zone in which
12:35
neither team scored any points on because half the field was covered in ice and
12:39
guys couldn't move down there. Right, So it seems like things will be
12:43
different. I just don't know if anything was actually hid this time from this
12:48
game, because the Chiefs couldn't afford it. On the flip side, though,
12:52
Steve spagnolo I think he probably kept some stuff in his back pocket.
12:54
That defense this year started out doing so much more stuff than they were doing.
12:58
But the time the Chiefs played the Bills, it was pretty clear the
13:01
Chiefs defense was really good. They're still gonna do their crazy disguises and blitz
13:05
and change their coverage, but I think that Steve Spagnola the latter half of
13:09
the year kind of pulled back a little bit so that he could turn it
13:13
back up for the playoffs. And I think you saw that immediately in this
13:16
first wild card game against the Dolphins. He's pulling out all the stops.
13:20
And he does this every year in the playoffs. So Andy maya not have
13:22
held stuff back, but I think Steve Spagnolo might have, And so I'm
13:26
interested to see kind of what his changes are going to be going into it.
13:28
Every year, it feels like even when the Chiefs defense sucks in the
13:33
regular season, like if they do, their playoff defense just kind of flips
13:37
the proverbial switch and just steps it up. But this year, like you
13:39
said, like their defense has been a quality unit from start to finish all
13:43
year. And I don't want to get too much into next It's one of
13:46
my points for the specific matchup, specific matchups they were going to get into.
13:50
But yeah, it's such an interesting feel this time around. I like
13:54
the way you articulated that, cause again, I thought it was a tremendous
13:56
point and it makes complete sense, right, Like you don't if there's a
14:00
team you know you're gonna see down the pike, especially come playoff time,
14:03
Like you don't want to throw everything like you have at them, because yes,
14:09
you want to beat them in the regular season, but like, also
14:11
who cares, like you want to win come playoff time. That's been my
14:15
biggest thing with the Bills Chiefs this whole time. And I think you asked
14:20
me this for last year's regular season game. You were like, if the
14:24
Bills beat the Chiefs in this game, like, doesn't make you feel better
14:28
about the Bills being the Chiefs in the playoffs? And I was like,
14:30
no, because it's a different beast in the playoffs. It's a different animal.
14:33
And especially the Chiefs, like they're such a different squad with how they're
14:37
coached and how they're gamed up. Like you know that even if they have
14:39
a unit that's like a four on a scale at one to ten, at
14:43
the very least that unit is probably going to be like a six come playoff
14:46
time like this. They have that ability to ratchet up a little bit and
14:48
to fine tune things and tighten and yeah, and I'm excited to get into
14:52
this conversation and I think a lot of the particulars of that fine tuning will
14:56
come out and the watch as we have this conversation. So with that being
14:58
said, I flip the ban to inside the division around Buffalo Bills ors Kansas
15:03
City Chiefs. For those of you playing at home with myself and Matt and
15:05
those in the live chat, what we're going to do right now. Matt
15:09
and I are each going to dive into our top three matchup pieces that we
15:11
think will be most important that will decide Bills versus Chiefs, that will be
15:16
paramount. Whatever verbage you want to label it as. It could be players
15:20
specific, It could be a side of the ball, It could be a
15:22
coach, it could be a formation, It could be anything as wide scale
15:26
or as granular as we want, anything and everything when it comes to this
15:30
matchup. For those of you playing at home, feel free to comment on
15:33
each of our answers. Also, feel free to put your answers into the
15:35
live chat. As I mentioned on the lead in an intro of the show,
15:39
once we send Matt on our way, I'm just going to basically do
15:41
what we did last week, which was really awesome, and basically questions and
15:45
answers from the live chat. So any questions, thoughts, comments, concerns,
15:48
anything and everything you got. I will be starring a bunch of them.
15:50
I've already started several. I'll bring them up once Matt goes, and
15:52
then be answering more as we go forward in terms of to get a pulse
15:56
check of the fan base and where we are coming out of this victory against
16:00
Atsburgh and going into this pivotal matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. But Matt,
16:04
you are the guests. The floor is yours. Whatever you want to
16:08
start with. I don't know if you've got them in any certain order or
16:11
if they're all yeah, particular point you want to start with first, but
16:15
you know the floor is going to start however you wish, God speak.
16:18
Let's let's get into I guess like the most minute of the details right off
16:22
the top. Let's just make it fun here, both the Bills and the
16:26
Chiefs when they go into heavy personnel to twelve, thirteen, twenty one,
16:30
whatever it may be. Our top ten offenses, you know by EPA per
16:33
play, neither defense is particularly great. They're fine. Both defenses are fine
16:37
the defending heavier personnel by the same metrics, but neither one are particularly great.
16:41
I think we've seen both the Chiefs throughout all of Andy Reid's tenure,
16:45
and then also the Bills, especially this year as they've learned leaned a little
16:48
bit more in the in the run game, getting Dawson Knox and Dalton kim
16:52
Kaid healthy together. Both teams have leaned on heavier personnel and important moments.
16:56
So which team's defense is going to be able to find the right answers for
17:00
that, right? I think both offenses kind of, I don't want to
17:03
say default to it, but go to it in key situations. They go
17:07
to it to find rhythm or when other stuff is stalling out. Both teams
17:10
would rather throw the ball fifty yards down the field for a touchdown every play,
17:12
right, but when that stalls out, they both kind of rely on
17:17
going to heavier personnel for these key moments to get things rolling. Which defense
17:21
has the right answers because i've been so far, both defense have been fined,
17:22
not great versus and I know injuries for the Bills play a huge role
17:26
in that. For the Chiefs, it's just the fact that like they hate
17:29
playing the run for whatever reason it may be, So like both, I
17:32
just wonder which defense is gonna have the right answers, because if you give
17:34
either one of these teams free first downs, free positive plays out of heavy
17:38
personnel, you're gonna find yourself giving up important third downs, giving up a
17:42
chunk play from time to time. It's probably gonna come back to bite you
17:47
at the end of the game. So I wonder which team's gonna step up
17:49
there, And I really think that might give a pretty big edge. And
17:52
it might only be a handful of plays throughout the game, but they're gonna
17:55
be a big play at some point in time where one of these offense goes
17:57
heavy and it does a defense it's able to step up at the time.
18:00
You know. That's a really great point, and it ties into I came
18:04
close to making just one of my points just being like Bill's injuries and like
18:08
that's it because there's so many especially on the defensive side of the ball.
18:12
But what the Bills have been doing recently. Maybe since because it's close to
18:18
midyear, I would say it's since we hit like double digit weeks. They've
18:22
been for years. They've been nickel no matter what. It didn't matter if
18:25
you came out with seventy five tight ends on the field, Taron Johnson staying
18:27
on the field, They're staying and nickel. It is who they are,
18:30
like Nichol is based, That's what they are. But they started going into
18:33
more three linebacker sets as the season went on. When teams will go really
18:37
heavy, and so you'd see with all the injuries, it was you know,
18:41
Terrell Bernard and Tyrel Dodson and then they bring in you know, Dorian
18:44
Williams or when Williams wasn't cutting in. It started to become Baile inspector a
18:47
little bit. Now with all the injuries the Bills have, it looks like
18:52
Terrell Bernard, at best case scenario, he's got a high ankle sprain.
18:56
He's probably not playing this week. Bayle inspector, who who started this past
19:00
week knicked up his back. It looks like he should be fine, he
19:03
could potentially play. Still, got to see what's up with Tyrell Dobson.
19:07
There's a very very realistic chance though that, like the two starting Bills linebackers
19:11
in this game are some combination of AJ Klein, Dornan Williams and or bal
19:17
in spector and AJ Klein. I love his story, like he was talking
19:19
about he was going off of he was getting ready to take the family down
19:23
to like Charlotte, North Carolina on vacation or something, and he got the
19:26
call to like come back to the Bills. He was he literally like got
19:29
off his couch to play football, and all things considered, he played well
19:33
in this past game against the Steelers. But it's a different animal with the
19:36
Chiefs that heavy personnel aspect. I love that if I'm the Chiefs, because
19:41
I think it really puts the Bills into a bind because even though you're outsized,
19:47
the better idea is probably to go with keeping Taron Johnson on the field,
19:49
who also left the Steelers game with concussion, his like ninety fifth concussion
19:53
of his career. Hopefully he should be cleared in time, but on a
19:56
short week that could get a little washy. That complicates even further for the
20:00
Bills. But let's say he does play, you're almost better off sort of
20:03
staying in that nickel spot if you're the Bills, because do you how much
20:07
faith do you really have in a three linebacker group of Klein, spector Williams
20:12
or a Spector can't go is it's Klein and Dorny Williams are starting linebackers,
20:17
Like who's the third you're even bringing off? Now you're scraping further even down
20:21
that depth chart. I think that heavier personnel package, whether the Chiefs run
20:25
out of it or pass out of it, could really put the Bills defense
20:27
into a bind given the injuries that they have at the second level, especially
20:32
at that linebacker spot. Yeah, and so that's kind of the way I'm
20:37
looking at it. Two, Heres like, obviously the Bills have a lot
20:38
of injuries. And this this might come up again later in another point here,
20:41
but like there's a lot of injuries, and it's at positions that are
20:45
gonna also play directly into this. So the Bills are already know average league
20:48
average, maybe a little bit below it defending heavier personnel. You're now dealing
20:52
with not even just backups from down to third stringers and guys that you were
20:56
having to sign, you know, from their homes to come on it right.
20:57
And so I just curious is to see when the Chiefs go heavy,
21:02
do the Bills even just have the bodies and guys that are ready to come
21:04
in and play at that moment in time to handle. You know, a
21:07
Chiefs offense that can play physical when they want to. They can run downhill
21:11
when they decide to. They can throw a lot of stuff at linebackers,
21:15
they can throw a lot of stuff at safeties that have to fill in.
21:18
If Taron Johnson can't go at your nickel corner, it's going to be forced
21:22
to come in to play the run. And as well as the past,
21:23
like what do they have as answers for the Chiefs when they do go heavy
21:27
in these situations? And on the flip side, a lot of teams have
21:32
had success against the Chiefs keeping them in base. You keep the Chiefs in
21:34
base. It doesn't allow Steve Spagnold to be quite as exotic as he is
21:37
in the past or where he wants to be now. He will still do
21:41
some stuff. They came out against the Dolphins and they put Leoshnell a linebacker
21:45
as a four I and they played a five man surface and they said,
21:48
hey, figure this out. And Naomi was very confused. It's like,
21:51
he'll still do some stuff, but you do limit what he can do,
21:53
especially with his coverage and his blitzes. So I think the Bills will also
21:57
use that to find answers against the chief who will go base. They will
22:00
match heavy personnel at base. They will put their three linebackers out there.
22:04
So it's just who's gonna have the right answers at the right times for all
22:07
of this, because I would say neither both offenses are ahead of the defenses
22:11
in this regard, and it's kind of whoever flips that around has it figured
22:14
out. If the Chiefs go three linebackers and they go base, it's gonna
22:18
be what Bolton Gay Tranquil Bolan Gay Bolton rotation, It's a rotation. I
22:26
am My fingers are crossed. I am hoping. I am praying that Drew
22:30
Trankile has been like, you know, kind of not saved, but like
22:33
not put out there as much as possible because they're saving him for the playoffs.
22:36
There's a clear difference when he's out there as one of the linebackers.
22:40
Just his ability and coverage has iq There's a big difference there, right,
22:44
So like we're Chiefs fans always want Tranquile to play more his snapcount, ebbs
22:48
and flows. But I think if the as the game goes on, he
22:51
probably gets a few more reps in base first. The bills I would imagine
22:55
than Leoshanal does. Leoshanal right now is a little bit more of like a
22:59
you're the slight when we are expecting a run, right Like, that's what
23:02
they kind of see him as right now, So that would be the hope
23:04
and what my anticipation would be. But they do mix it up so much.
23:07
Yeah, it's super frustrating as a person who doesn't like watch every Chiefs
23:12
game to then go and watch Chiefs tape and be like, oh, Drew
23:15
Trankele's on out there, Okay, yeah, because Nick Bolton's back, you
23:18
know, Trankle's probably done. And then like there's a series where Trankle's in
23:22
a bunch and then he's out and then I'm like, oh did he get
23:23
hurt? And then he comes back in a bunch again, and I'm like,
23:26
what the hell is going on? And it's like always like that and
23:27
I can't figure it out. So what they really do like to do if
23:32
Nick Boltons. They're starting mic right, and like he's got his strengths,
23:34
he's got his weaknesses. He's really good, there's weaknesses and the Bill in
23:38
the first matchup, the Bills exploited it first came back from you know the
23:41
ir right, so like there's some there's some rust there, but he was
23:45
exploited in space by the Bills and that first game back. So that's why
23:48
Chiefs fans like, we want Drew Tranquill. He's more athletic, he can
23:51
do this stuff better. And then there's obviously things that Bolton's better at.
23:53
But what the Chiefs do for sure, nig Bolton's gonna start as your mic
23:57
and about the third series of both has at least he's gonna come out of
24:00
the game and Drew Trankle is gonna go play Mike, and they're gonna sit
24:03
there with Nick Bolton on the sideline and Steve Spagnola and whoever else wants to
24:07
get involved, and they're gonna adjust the game plan. And they do it
24:10
every single time. And the splits from before that and after that are super
24:15
drastic, but there is an improvement, right, So they they do like
24:18
to pull Bolton out, they'll make the adjustments while Drew Trankle's out there,
24:21
and then the rest of the linebackers will rotate throughout the game. But like
24:23
you will see Bolton come out for an entire series and when he comes back
24:27
in like you have to be ready, things are gonna be different. They
24:30
have adjusted something when he comes off the field for that whole time, well
24:33
said. Well said, he's somebody who seeing him at Missouri, I was
24:37
like, man, this dude is such a thumper and a hammer coming forward,
24:41
But like, I don't know how he can live in coverage in the
24:42
NFL. And to his credit, he reshaped his body and frame and skill
24:47
set and he's held his own in coverage. But like you said, there
24:49
is still that liability piece, and it's interesting to see like him being put
24:52
in a rotation knowing how pivotal he's been to that defense, especially last year
24:56
with I mean, it seems like if anytime they needed like a big play,
25:00
like he was there to make it and scoop and score and add points
25:02
to the to the Chiefs defense and really stem the tide for opponents and make
25:07
a difference for the defense. So yeah, that's a spot to watch.
25:08
I like that nice point. I'm gonna I always treat on mine. There's
25:14
one thing I have is that my number one. But I'm not gonna go
25:17
with that one because one of them ties in with what you got. So
25:19
twelve personnel. We know the Bills like to operate out of it. They've
25:23
been successful with it when they've done it the years You've talked about, But
25:26
it's really tying into that run game piece and then the bind that it puts
25:30
defenses in when the Bills were able to run out of twelve and what they
25:33
can do from a passing perspective, And so I just say I've generally listed
25:37
here of kind of a question for this point, but how much do the
25:40
Bills lean into the run game? I talked about this the first time a
25:44
little bit in a different way. These two, these two teams about each
25:45
other in the regular season. I know it's a passing league and all that,
25:48
and this game has Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes and Steffan Digges and Travis
25:52
Kelsey and YadA YadA, like I get it. But I'm going away from
25:55
the past and focusing on the run game piece here again a little bit like
25:59
in the first the Chiefs pass defense is very, very very good. They're
26:03
seventh in DVOA overall as a defense, but in particular against the pass.
26:07
They are fifth in DVOA against the pass. They are fourth in EPA per
26:11
pass allowed. They are third in positive play percentage when it comes to the
26:15
pass. They are second in success rate when it comes to the pass.
26:19
And then for matchup specific pieces, they're fifth in DVA versus wide receiver ones
26:26
twenty fifth against wide receiver twos, second versus wide receiver threes, tenth versus
26:30
tight ends twenty first versus running back. So some potential opportunities to pick Adam,
26:36
but on the whole, a very good pass defense, and then they've
26:40
got the front that can match with it. Chris Jones is a danger on
26:42
every single play. And then you get some different pop from you know,
26:45
a mena who at times and Karl loftis at times. So the past defense
26:48
is thorough. Then you look at the run defense. The Chiefs run defense
26:52
twenty seventh versus the run in DVA, twenty sixth in EPA per rush,
26:57
twenty third in positive play rate, seventeenth in success rate, which isn't bad,
27:02
twenty sixth in yards per attempt, and twenty seventh in stuff percentage,
27:07
which is runs that go for zero or less yards. Meanwhile, the Buffalo
27:11
Bills run game for running back carries only. I always say that because once
27:15
you include quarterbacks, Josh Allen amplifies every single metric for the Bills run game,
27:18
so everything just gets better. But for the Bill's run game for running
27:22
back carries only seventh in EPA per tempt, fourth in positive play percentage,
27:26
eighth in yards per attempt, lowest, second, lowest percentage of runs where
27:30
the running back gets hit at the line of scrimmage, lowest amount of runs
27:34
that have gone for zero or less yards. And then if you factor in
27:37
runs of any kind by anyone, so adding in Josh Allen, they're second
27:41
in EPA per attempt and first in positive play percentage. The vulnerability for me
27:45
to exploit in the Chiefs defense is their run defense. One. Let's just
27:49
start with arguably still probably their best player on defense, Chris Jones. He
27:55
doesn't want to play the run. He wants to rush the passer. And
27:56
even when he makes you know, and even when he makes plays against the
28:00
run, it's because he's penetrating and causing some kind of chaos. He doesn't
28:03
want to sit there and take on double teams and you know, stack and
28:07
shed and holdstrong at the point of attack. He does not want to do
28:10
that. So the more you're able to run the ball, you can reduce
28:11
Chris Jones as a pass rusher, and in particular, if you run at
28:15
him you can find success. You can also, and this ties into one
28:18
of the points you were talking about earlier, you can reduce the impact that
28:22
Steve Spagnolo has on the game with his coverages and his pressures, and especially
28:26
you know, limiting yourself and to get into predictable situations. If you can
28:30
run the ball consistently, you reduce the impact Spags can have on the game
28:33
with his coverages and his pressures. And if you are able to run the
28:37
ball and keep yourself out of known passing situations and or third and lungs,
28:41
you can limit the impact that Spags has even further. Then that takes away
28:45
significant chess piece ability of the Chiefs defense. And then let's flip to the
28:49
other side. By extension, you can also limit possessions for Patrick Mahomes and
28:52
keep your potentially wounded walking mass unit from the comments of a defense off the
28:59
field by trolling the ball and the clock, not to mention all the little
29:02
pieces that extend off the run game, like play action RPOs making life easier
29:07
for Josh Allen and all of that. And you know, so I think
29:10
it could come out of twelve. I think it really could come. In
29:11
general, a point that I do want to make. The Bills have had
29:15
three main run concepts that they've used this year. They've used duo, they've
29:18
used mid zone, and they've used that tackle rap play dart where they'll pull
29:22
Dawkins or they'll poll Spencer Brown. It was the concept that they absolutely murdered
29:26
the Dallas Cowboys with. They ran it like literally third I don't know,
29:30
twenty something times, thirty times, like they crushed the Cowboys with it.
29:33
And my big piece with that coming out of that game was, you know,
29:37
it's a core concept and stable for the Bills run game. They've been
29:40
doing it since last year. It works well for him. But my bigger
29:42
problem out of that game was Dallas didn't adjust, Like, what the hell
29:47
is with your defense? Why didn't you adjust? That's also my same question
29:49
coming out of the Cowboys Packers game, which I don't understand how the Cowboys
29:52
play defense anymore. That's a conversation for another time. But I say that
29:56
to say this, since that Cowboys game, teams have a rusted to the
30:00
Bills running that tackle rap dark play. The Chargers, the Patriots, the
30:04
Dolphins, and then this past week against the Steelers. Teams are squeezing that
30:10
front side a gap. They didn't run it a bunch against against the Steelers.
30:12
They went with a lot of mid zone in this game. But teams
30:15
are squeezing that front side a gap and or they're triggering when they see that
30:19
tackle pull. So it is a concept that will still work at times,
30:22
but the Bills aren't able to spam it over and over again. And that's
30:26
usually been their concept that they'll go to out of gun, they'll go in
30:30
two by two spread, or they'll go in eleven personnel and they'll run that
30:33
tackle rap play because it pairs so well with the spread offense. So that
30:37
changes things a little bit too, which is why if you go into more
30:40
twelve personnel, then you're getting into more of that mid zone world, that
30:44
duo world, that downhill running aspect, which pairs well with twelve with increasing
30:48
your surface on the offensive line and also trying to limit Chris Jones and also
30:55
getting away from that tackle rap and dart play. The teams have started to
30:57
scout out first point there. Yeah, no, it all makes sense if
31:03
you're you know, developing a game plan of how you want to play the
31:06
Chiefs. Right is you're gonna get in base, you're gonna run the ball,
31:10
and you were gonna get into second in medium, then you're gonna get
31:12
into third and short. And every time you do that, you keep Steve
31:15
Spagnol out of his bag. You forced him to play not vanilla, and
31:19
this year the defense is plenty good to still win that way, like that's
31:22
that's different than year's past. But you forced him to play, you know,
31:26
not to what their biggest strength is, which has been Steve Spagnol in
31:29
big games. You can go look at the Green Bay Packers game for a
31:30
perfect example. They just constantly stayed ahead of the sticks against the Chiefs by
31:34
running the football on early downs, getting positive yards. The play action passes
31:38
were there when they did drop back to throw, the Chiefs weren't really coming
31:42
at them with anything exotic because they were ahead of the sticks consistently. So
31:45
yeah, that is one hundred percent in issue. The Chiefs have it with
31:49
their run defense right now. I would expect the Bills to find some success
31:52
again doing it. I will say, like with the with the tackle rap
31:56
and the dart play, that's something the Chiefs handle usually pretty well. Their
31:59
lineas key in on polars relatively well. They do see them. They get
32:02
on that. Where they struggle mightily is if you're gonna run duo really well
32:07
they're middle linebacker Nick Bolton, and then if you get Willy Gay involved in
32:12
it too, they really struggle to read it out properly and always make contact
32:15
with with the climbing guy coming off the double team. They struggle to get
32:19
in the hole and really wad it up sometimes, especially if or even worse,
32:22
if you get a fullback to lead the way on any kind of run
32:25
whatever it is, if you have a fullback coming forward, the Chiefs for
32:29
whatever reason, just don't quite understand how to fit the run when teams are
32:31
running at them out of twenty one personnel. It's been this way for years.
32:36
They just really struggle to figure out how to handle the gap being added
32:39
to one side of the ball when it's not a polar and they find when
32:43
it's a polar, when it's a full back, it just blows their brain
32:45
right now right, And so that is something that has been difficult for them.
32:49
It's something to keep an eye on. I think if this is a
32:52
heavy you know, dart play tackle wrap dart heavy, there, the chief
32:54
should fare Okay. You want to run right at them, you want to
32:58
run duo, you want to get a back in there or something instead of
33:01
two tight ends, and just run it right at them. That's where you'll
33:04
have the most success. And then the Bills. This is why the Bills
33:07
are so hard this year. Man says, they started to run. You
33:09
can't just play the run. You can't just go play the run because Josh
33:13
Allen exists. You can't just say, oh, that's okay, we'll play
33:15
single high, not even load the box. Just add an extra defender to
33:19
the box, roll down into it at the snap, and handle the run
33:22
just fine. We'll put an extra player in the fit. Now, we
33:23
don't have to spell everything. We'll be fine. It doesn't work, though,
33:28
because Josh Allen's is gonna take it right over the top. So the
33:30
Chiefs hands will be full in that. If the Bills can have some success
33:32
running early on. I think that's a key thing to keep an eye out
33:37
for if they're running the ball well. And we mentioned that Nick Bolton leaving
33:39
for a series. When he comes back in watch and see if the Chiefs
33:44
play the run differently or better from that moment, because that is kind of
33:46
one of the things that they would adjust in there. But that's where the
33:50
Chiefs even tens to start. It's not just Josh Allen. You gotta slow
33:52
down the run game so you get a chance to go stop Josh Allen.
33:55
And they haven't been great at it this season. And that's such a I
34:00
say it is a key almost every single week, and you alluded to it,
34:02
and I said a similar point for the Chiefs last year, and then
34:06
they're run towards the Super Bowl. Like if you have this offense with and
34:08
I don't mean in particular with the Bills, I just mean an offense in
34:12
general. If you have an offense with a superstar, superhuman QB who can
34:15
do anything and everything, and you have a good passing attack, if you
34:17
have a good run game with it, the defense is dead in the water,
34:22
like you can't do anything. And especially the Bills with how they're built.
34:25
Yeah, if you have a good running back run game, cool.
34:28
Now all of a sudden, if you're adding like you know, mesh actions
34:30
in the backfield, you have to account for Josh Allen too, so like
34:32
you can't just come crashing down off the edge because you have to genuinely honor
34:37
him as a runner. And then now all of a sudden, with the
34:39
cannon that he has, the explosive pass game comes into play with play action
34:44
and down the field aspects, and I really I know how sexy it is
34:47
to be in the spread and you know, two by two and four wide
34:52
and all this kind of stuff, and even eleven personnel, but so much
34:54
of me wants this Bill's offense just to be twelve personnel all the time,
35:00
downhill running attack and then play action chunk play shots and Josh Allen struggled throwing
35:06
the ball deep this year, but it just meshes so well, Like give
35:09
me bootlegs and move in the pocket with Josh Allen where he has the opportunity
35:14
to fire a chunk play in there, or he can just take off and
35:15
run. Like there's so many ways you can mesh and merge the run game
35:22
with the explosive passing attack option all because of what Josh Allen can do in
35:25
his mobility, and it puts defenses into hell regardless of who they are.
35:29
And then even more so for this matchup, it just it just screams,
35:32
run the ball in this game, Like I don't care about the storyline pieces
35:36
of Oh Mahomes versus Allen. Same thing with both teams. If I'm the
35:38
Chiefs and the Bills, I'm staying. If I'm the Chiefs, I'm living
35:42
in like thirteen, and if I'm the Bills, I'm living in twelve.
35:45
And like it's gonna be everybody's like ooh Mahomes versus Allen, and the game's
35:49
gonna be like, Nope, it's gonna be James Cook versus Isaiah Pacheco.
35:52
Each running back is gonna have twenty carries in the first half and we're making
35:53
an old school run game and someone's gonna win thirteen to ten. And that's
35:57
what it is, but it could be even more because how these defenses are
36:00
built where you can exploit them and attack them and put them into hell.
36:05
It's because of those schematic lineups and advantages you can create with those personnel groupings
36:08
and with the play calls that come with it, it's very very intriguing.
36:13
Gu just just run the ball and then build from there. Everything comes back
36:16
to running football. Everything is cyclic. Cool. Let's get back to the
36:19
nineteen fifties football leather helmets or just run the ball. That's it. Run
36:22
the wing tea. That's all we got. All right, So we're each
36:25
down from our first points. The floor is yours once again, what do
36:29
you got for your number two? Okay? This rolls in? Well here
36:32
for this, I think too. It's Josh Allen and it's him running the
36:37
football, So like this is playing off what you say. It's Josh Allen
36:39
r on the football. Like I feel like this is disrespectful of Josh Allen.
36:43
I don't know if you have a Patrick Mahomes point coming up to but
36:45
I feel like I don't, and like I feel like it's disrespectful to not
36:47
mention like the best two quarterbacks in the NFL are going head to head.
36:51
We might see another forty point kind of shootout back and forth because of the
36:54
best quarterbacks out there. But there's not as much fun talking about it because
37:00
there's nothing you can do to stop it. If they're on, they're on.
37:02
There's no deterring them being able to throw the football everywhere, right,
37:06
Like that's why I think I kind of skip over the matchup of those two,
37:09
just them to his ability to throw the football and make plays. Now,
37:14
I do want to talk about Josh Allen though, in running the football,
37:15
whether it's designed runs, and I think last time I was on,
37:17
we talked about him scrambling. We are talking about, you know how he
37:21
has now taken the Mahomes crown is the best you know, pressure to sack
37:24
ratio or a percentage in the NFL this year, and like that that's in
37:29
its own category that you can't get him down. He makes huge plays off
37:32
of it. You get pressure, it doesn't matter. He doesn't take sacks.
37:35
He runs, he scrambles, he gets the ball away. But it's
37:37
in designed runs lately. I've noticed the past couple times watching the Bills.
37:40
You know, during these last few games, they're calling them up and not
37:44
a ton, but they're putting them there. They're sprinkling them in. And
37:46
Josh Allen, because he's a freak of nature athlete, because they've built it
37:50
off the run game that's already there because you have to respect his arm.
37:53
Now, how is a defense? Are you going to properly handle a running
37:58
back run from James Cook or whoever and defend the pass over the top because
38:01
he has a canon? And then also now you have to defend you know,
38:05
the two hundred and fifty pound guy who outruns your linebackers when he pulls
38:07
it and keeps it. So how are the Chiefs going to stay structurally sound
38:13
versus the run and versus the pass, but then also make sure they have
38:15
somebody keeping their eyes on Josh Allen quarterback running teams more scrambles than designed runs.
38:22
But like the Chiefs have not done the best against QB scrambles or runs.
38:24
It's just something that seems to get lost in the translation of all of
38:29
the rotation, all of the sim pressure, all of guys dropping out,
38:32
guys rotating where they're covering, where the blitzes are coming from, and now
38:36
a d end has to turn his back to the quarterback and go find his
38:38
man. Like they just seem to leave themselves open to the quarterback run.
38:42
Quarterback you know, scrambles pretty frequently because of how that defense operates. They
38:46
just gonna have to make sure they stay a little bit more sound versus or
38:50
if they don't, this might be another seventy yard rushing performance from Josh Allen.
38:53
And like those things add up, especially when he does them in big
38:57
moments. And it's funny too, like you mentioned the sim pressure piece and
39:00
the blitz packages and spags. Is so good with those, but we've seen
39:04
I mean the Steelers game is a good example, Like you can bring a
39:07
free runner right off the edge and if it's your slot corner, it's like,
39:09
okay, cool is he can you take down Josh Allen in the backfield?
39:14
Like if you that's been such a deterrent for the Bills, you know,
39:20
passing game against like opposing defenses and pass rushers, Like this year their
39:23
offensive line has been significantly better, Like they have a legitimate NFL offensive line
39:28
this year. It's not a vulnerability, it's not a weakness. But in
39:30
the past, you know, Allen has been despite Mahomes being better, usually
39:35
Allen has been one of the best. Like we talked about like quarterbacks and
39:38
not allowing pressures to be converted to sacks, and it's and it's usually against
39:43
free rushers, Like he's stiff arming defensive ends in the face and he's running
39:46
through you know, slot corners who are blitzing off the edge, coming free
39:50
like again he did in the Steelers against the Steelers, And that's what you
39:52
could have a little bit in the Chiefs Like I love McDuffie and like say
39:57
McDuffie comes clean off the edge, like I know he's a but like I
40:00
don't know, Kenny bring down Josh Allen? Like if you get carloftis coming
40:04
free off the edge like we've seen, like is he athletic enough to stay
40:07
with Josh Allen? Like you have to win schematically to get that free runner.
40:12
But then you have the one on one job of bringing down Josh Allen.
40:14
And he's made so many defenses wrong even when they've been right, and
40:19
those are the ones then absolutely like kill you as a defense when you do
40:22
everything right and some dude just goes and makes a play Like I was watching,
40:28
I don't know if you saw who is it? I think is your
40:30
Franklin EJ. Speed for the Colts to who they have their podcasts, they
40:34
were talking about c. J. Stroud and they were breaking down some of
40:37
the throws that he made against them, and they were just talking about like
40:39
these backbreaking things because you do everything right and he gets to his third read
40:43
in the progression, it makes a crazy throw and you're just like, they
40:45
were like, dude, this sucks, Like you did that on your third
40:49
read man, what the hell? And that's like when you get quarterbacks who
40:52
just go out and make a play out of nothing or just do something that
40:54
plays above the scheme, it breaks your back. And Alan does that so
40:59
much, and Allen does that in Buffalo, the crowd gets into it more
41:01
and all these pieces his legs are such a key because exactly your point,
41:07
like, now you have to defend Josh Allen the arm, and the passing
41:09
attack, Josh Allen the legs, and then the Bills running game aside from
41:14
Josh Allen, And how do you allocate enough resources in preparation and in execution
41:20
to be able to stop all three? Yeah, And that's that's where it
41:24
comes down to, right, is like there's just there's no way you can
41:27
defend all those things without essentially just you know, if the defense plays completely
41:30
assignment. Sound like technically, yes, if no offensive player wins, you're
41:34
gonna be able to cover it all. But that's not how football works,
41:36
someone's gonna win. And the whole point is you have to make the offense
41:40
not know who's gonna win. They have to be, you know, looking
41:43
at somewhere else for when it wins. So Steve Spagnola has been pretty good
41:45
about this with Josh Allen, who's great. But even in the game earlier
41:49
this year, there was a stretch there where the Bill's offense got a little
41:52
stagnant and it felt like Steve Spagnola was kind of getting a little bit of
41:54
the upper hand. He made Josh Allen seem a little bit more uncomfortable back
41:59
there, a little less sure of where he wanted to go with the football.
42:00
And that's what Spags has done to Allan in the playoffs a few times
42:05
when they've played right. And so you got to get that going. But
42:07
then when you have your chance to get him down, you have to get
42:09
him down. And then now you have to defend the run because the Bills
42:13
are leaning into the run game. Oh hey, by the way, here
42:15
goes again Alan on the move, because he can do that, and when
42:17
you get that free rusher. As a chief sin I don't even need to
42:21
go to the Steelers game. I watched tyrone math. You miss at least
42:22
two or three sacks as a free rusher versus Josh Allen in the past.
42:25
I don't know if in the first game, if Trit McDuffie had one.
42:29
I feel like he might have and he still just couldn't bring him down.
42:31
And he's a smaller guy, great blitzer, smaller guy, hard to get
42:35
him down. Oh wait, now you have a linebacker. Well, guess
42:37
what. Your linebacker might not be fast enough. So it's just it's even
42:40
less about making the plays in regards of, you know, getting to Josh
42:44
Allen. It's just about making him feel uncomfortable. I think is what Spags
42:46
has when he has had success against him in the past. It's been making
42:50
him feel uncomfortable, right, And I think a comfort zone, a comfort
42:53
level can be okay if it's on this third and sixth play instead of dealing
42:57
with whatever goofy pressure that's coming. But if we just go run QB power
43:00
and see what happens. But if we just try it out and see what
43:04
happens, and like, are the Chiefs ready for it, because they're gonna
43:06
be giving you a funky look. They're probably gonna have linebackers mugged up on
43:08
the A gap, They're probably gonna have a slot corner sheeting, and their
43:13
safeties might be rotating at the snap, so maybe you're running into the guy
43:15
that's dropping back like they're gonna be doing all this other stuff. So I
43:20
just I have my eyes out for at least one or two designed josh Alla,
43:23
not scrambles, just designed runs that the Bills call at the right time
43:27
for Josh Allen that are gonna feel a little backbreaking for the Chiefs because you're
43:30
gonna be like, man, why did this happen? We did this with
43:32
against the Jalen Hurts and you know the Super Bowl, and then this year
43:36
and they played them, they just they call a QB draw on a down
43:38
and distance that you're not expecting it. But because Hurts are so good,
43:42
because they called it up at the right time, it just happens to work.
43:45
And I think you could see something very similar in this game, because
43:47
that's not something the Chiefs have routinely handled well. And then then you throw
43:52
in all the other things that the Bills throw at you. I think it's
43:53
gonna be a little difficult for him. That's a fair point. And if
43:58
I'm spags. I am out live with the QB design runs from Josh Allen.
44:02
I am trying to limit his comfortability in running from scramble mode when it
44:07
comes to the past. And I love this comment that Pete said. He
44:10
said Pittsburgh did a better job late in the game to get some team defensive
44:14
sacks. Better to corral Josh and get a whistle blown then try to bring
44:17
him down. You hit it on those words, like Josh Allen, every
44:22
quarterback wants to be comfortable. But you can tell when you're watching the game,
44:27
just on the broadcast. You can tell when Josh Allen's comfortable or when
44:30
he's not, when he's starting to feel skittish, or when he's starting to
44:32
get in his own head a little bit. If I'm the Chiefs, I
44:37
am, I'm probably dropping eight into coverage as much as I can, But
44:40
I'm not even blitzing a ton, And I'm just trying to compress the pocket
44:44
and keep him hemmed in there. And I am throwing as many confusing coverages
44:46
and disguising as many things as I can. I am trying to make Josh
44:51
Allen play quarterback from the neck up as much as humanly possible. I am
44:57
trying to make him play quarterback like he's and I'm trying to limit the amount
45:01
of the amount of reps that he can use his physical tools and his gifts.
45:06
I don't want that size and that athleticism to come into play. I'm
45:08
trying to make him play quarterback from the neck up, and I want to
45:12
force him, you know, I'm gonna constrict those running lanes from a scrambled
45:15
perspective, and I want him to force him force his hand to be like,
45:19
no, let me try to get out of the pocket and make a
45:21
play, and it's not there, and he's got to bubble out too much,
45:22
and he's like giving up like five six yards just to try and turn
45:25
the corner, and then he's losing angles and there's not that really open opportunity.
45:30
I'm trying to kind of keep him in that pocket, rein him in
45:32
as much as I can and not and limit the amount of explosives he can
45:37
create with his legs and with his arms. But also to your point,
45:40
he gets comfortable, like he is very comfortable with a free I think.
45:45
And I was gonna finish my thought and I was like, no, this
45:46
is better. I think he's more comfortable with a free runner bearing down in
45:51
his face. I think he's more comfortable with that trying to avoid it and
45:53
making a play than he is just like sitting in the pocket and having to
45:57
go from one to two to three to four. Like he lives in the
46:00
chaos and he can thrive in it. I'm trying to limit that, just
46:02
make him play like he's Drew Brees back there. Mitigate the athleticism he can
46:07
tap into it. And that makes sense. I mean we went through it
46:09
with you know, Mahomes early in his career too. It's just like you
46:12
want to put a free runner at him. If he makes that guy miss,
46:15
he now gets to escape the pocket because the rest of the defense is
46:17
obviously not anticipating him to be able to leave the pocket from where the free
46:22
runner is coming. Now, all of a sudden, everything about the play
46:24
breaks down. The launch point of the football breaks down, the angle at
46:27
which the leverage of the coverage completely changes. I one get white quarterbacks with
46:31
great arms that are athletic can feel more comfortable there. And yeah, I
46:35
think that's a great point. Josh Allen doesn't like ever panic when there's a
46:37
free rusher he doesn't panic when the blitz comes. I have seen him,
46:42
you know, Steve Spagnolo and other coaches I think have gotten him before by
46:45
sending a lot of pressure for a stretch. But eventually he figures it out,
46:50
or even if he's not figuring out, he doesn't look panicked by the
46:52
fact that all the blitz is coming. When when he seems to get a
46:55
little bit uneasy. Is like you said, when you show this blitz or
46:59
you out, you give him a coverage. Look, he wasn't expecting and
47:02
now he has to sit there. It's almost like he anticipate, not anticipates
47:07
getting hit or pressured. But he starts anticipating looking for a way to escape.
47:12
The pocket with the picture isn't what he thought, and he wants to
47:15
go out and create so and I think that, yeah, I don't.
47:16
I don't want to go too far down unless we wanted to talk about Alan,
47:19
you know, as the passing game next, we got way off sidetrack.
47:22
Shocking for us, I know, But like I'm with you now that
47:23
you say that like that, that sounds very much about like the moments when
47:27
I'm thinking, like I can start to see him get uncomfortable it's not not
47:30
I wouldn't classify like saying a guy has happy. I fee he just starts
47:32
looking for a way to escape the pocket and try to read the field on
47:37
the move rather than just staying there and not moving because everything's you know,
47:40
nice and calm. And you'll get that from I can't tell you how many
47:45
times, whether it's on Twitter or even hearing the episodes where or you know,
47:49
I'll post a clip of something and you know, people comment there on
47:52
Twitter for the All twenty two and it's people being like, man, he
47:54
didn't have to try to escape right there? Why did he try to do
47:57
that. You'll see him force the issue, like the pocket will be clear
48:00
or there'll be just like someone will get knocked back like a little bit,
48:05
and it's like he's like, oh, well there you go. I gotta
48:07
run now, and it's like, no, you don't have to run.
48:07
The pocket is there, just stay in the pocket. He wants to thrive,
48:10
Yeah, like in that chaos, and again I don't blame him.
48:14
Like he's out there running through safeties and linebackers and out running dudes and making
48:19
plays in space with his arm and his legs. Again, like he thrives
48:22
in it. And I really like your second point and it ties into very
48:25
much into my second point, and I titled it who makes more plays with
48:30
their legs Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. Some of these numbers, I'm gonna
48:34
get to that one of them was staggering, but I guess it makes sense.
48:37
But I'm gonna talk about what the numbers for both these guys with their
48:40
legs. So amongst eighty two players with at least fifty rushes in the regular
48:44
season, regardless of position, eighty two players with at least fifty rushes in
48:47
the regular season, Josh Allen was tied for first in EPA per attempt at
48:52
zero point two five. Patrick Mahomes was fifth at zero point one to two.
48:57
Scrambles usually lead to a lot of EPA, which is why usually your
49:00
top EPA dudes per carry are like Alan Mahomes, Hurts Lamar Jackson, like
49:06
all these kind of dudes. What's crazy is and I keep talking about him
49:08
even when the Dolphins aren't playing because he had such a crazy year. Allen
49:12
was tied for first an EPA per attemp with Devon a Change, the running
49:15
back from Miami who's his numbers were just balkers this year, like EPA yards
49:20
per attempt, EPA per attempt everything. The fact that there's a running back
49:23
tied for first with the mobile quarterbacks knowing what scrambles do to EPA is again
49:29
another feather in the cap for eight chain, but again Alan tied for first.
49:31
An EPA per attempt, Mahomes fifth at zero point one two. That's
49:36
out of eighty two players in general, amongst thirty four qbs with at least
49:40
ten scrambles, Mahomes is fourth in EPA per attempt at zero point six to
49:45
three. But the quarterbacks ahead of him are Tyson Bagent, Taylor Heineke,
49:50
and Kyler Murray. All three of them have fifteen or less scrambles. Mahomes
49:54
has fifty one, so he was point zero eight out of first, but
50:00
with five hundred percent more attempts than Tyson Bagent in first, So Mahomes just
50:04
doing crazy damage with his legs when it comes to scrambles. Alan was fifteenth
50:07
in those situations. So if you're looking at scrambles and EPA per attempt generated,
50:12
Mahomes is fourth at zero point sixty three. Alan was fifteenth at zero
50:15
point four to four, so about of a point, you know, a
50:19
quarter of a point difference. There was also twenty eight qbs with at least
50:22
five scrambles on third downs. Mahomes is sixth and EPA per attempt at point
50:27
eighty five. Alan is fourteenth and point six to two. So Patrick Mahomes
50:30
is scrambles on third down almost give you a full point added, which is
50:37
just nuts. But this part is what I found very jarring. Without scrambles,
50:43
there is a significant difference in the impact in terms of EPA for both
50:46
these qbs with their legs. If you remove scrambles, Josh Allen has an
50:51
EPA per rush of zero point one two that is second out of forty one
50:54
qbs with at least ten attempts. Patrick Mahomes without scrambles has an EPA per
51:00
rush of negative zero point nine to five, which is thirty seventh out of
51:05
forty one qbs. He's in the tier with Derek Carr and Will Levis.
51:09
TUA is way lower at like negative one point seventy to one. And and
51:13
it makes sense like you don't see Mahomes doing a bunch of sneaks. He's
51:15
not keeping it on RPOs. He's not doing QB power. He's not doing
51:20
any of this. The significant portion of the damage that Mahomes does with his
51:23
legs, and everybody knows it is third downs. He scrambles, He runs
51:28
back and forth, he runs like seventy yards just to get nine yards in
51:30
the first down, and then he does this a whole bunch and brings everybody
51:34
back to the huddle. And you want to punch him in the face because
51:36
his mannerysms are so annoying. Or he's putting his head down and he's cracking
51:39
his helmet now getting a little bit of physicality. I love that that.
51:43
It was like, it's so cold that dude's helmet cracked like this busted,
51:46
Yeah, just busted. I saw it fly off and I was like,
51:50
oh, mouth piece and I was like, no, helmet cracked. Like
51:52
that was pretty sweet. But and so this isn't to say like, oh,
51:57
like Mahomes sucks or Allan is amazing. Just how they get how they
52:00
do their damage. Allan is a little bit of everything. He can do
52:04
it off script with the scrambles, but there is like you've talked about the
52:07
QB power aspect, qbpin and pull some QB bash he can just keep it
52:12
on an RPO, like if that end crashes down too much, he'll just
52:15
keep it and take off and go. He can kill you in multiple ways.
52:17
Mahomes's damage all comes with those scrambles. And again it makes sense,
52:22
like given the offenses, they are, their frames, their skill sets,
52:25
their size, what they do, So Mahomes will kill you again, Like
52:29
he's sitting there fifth out of eighty two players at least fifty rushes with an
52:32
EPA per attempt of zero point one to two. But it's all because of
52:37
those scrambles. And when you remove the scrambles, he's got an EPA P.
52:39
He's almost a negative full point when you take out those scrambles. So
52:45
it's a different way they attack. And so who's who makes more plays with
52:47
their legs? Alan or Mahomes? Is it Alan with the scrambles, Is
52:51
it Alan with design runs or is it Mahomes breaking contain the bills not maintaining
52:55
their rush lanes and rush lane integrity and him getting out and either can play
53:00
with his arm or with his legs and doing damage. Yeah, like you're
53:04
saying that, I'm not surprised, Like the Mahomes split there, I can't
53:07
even off the top of my head think of too many times where there's been
53:09
a non scramble mahomes run. I knew it would be, I knew whether
53:13
it be a split. I wasn't expecting it to be that far down.
53:15
I wasn't expecting to be like a negative full point. Yeah, it must
53:20
be. Broken plays are the only thing I could like even come off that
53:22
because they don't do much in the year's passed you. He's pulled the occasional
53:27
RPO every now and then, or like they've done some stuff where he's like
53:30
pulled it but very frequently, or they've ran like a speed option real quick,
53:32
but they haven't done that this year. It's like that's had to be
53:36
a pretty small sample size. I'm not surprised either. He's not. He
53:38
is not a runner that you're designing a run for because he's not going to
53:43
sit there and make someone mishead on. He's not going to like read it
53:45
out and run where it is. He wants her to be a bunch of
53:46
space that he's going to start doing his weird like all his weights on his
53:50
heels, his just a little scoop thing around where he knows like he looks
53:52
like he shouldn't be moving fast at all, and he's just running by all
53:57
these people and like to his run like defies this. For me, it's
54:00
just like I don't he's always he is. He's always moving faster than almost
54:06
everybody I found. He found out this year that he cannot outrun josh U
54:10
Jay of the Patriots. That's the first time I've seen somebody take an angle
54:14
and catch it and actually like completely erase it from him. And so okay,
54:17
duly noted, but like he nobody ever catches him. He just scoots
54:21
around. It's the most awkward looking run. And then he just starts weaving
54:24
in and out of traffic. He's just like kind of guiding around. He
54:27
gets into sideline and because his run is so weird, everyone I think always
54:30
assumes he's getting ready to step out. So the amount of times he gets
54:34
five, six, more seven yards just scampering down the sideline because he has
54:37
that weird little heel run, it's gotta suck. He runs like stupid,
54:40
like Stuie Griffin like it just and yeah, he scoots is the perfect way
54:45
almost like yeah, like he runs like an older person speed walking in a
54:51
mall. It's it's just the weirdest way to do or somebody somebody had a
54:54
real great one once what like a oh, I think it was a tweet.
54:58
Like he he runs like a person trying to bring back multiple beers to
55:01
the table. Yeah, is not trying to spill anything like that. Yeah,
55:07
it's just so goofy and it works right, and it works Like he
55:08
drops back he wants to scramble. I think in the playoffs he really turns
55:12
it up and like, yeah, the efficiency on his scrambles, especially in
55:15
the playoffs because they are mostly on third downs, they almost always go for
55:20
first towns is through the roof. They're gonna be in there, They're gonna
55:22
be mixed in. Similar to what we talk about with the Bills, you
55:24
can't take away what the Chiefs do through the air. And now that they've
55:28
added a little bit more of a run game the past couple of years and
55:30
stop the run and then when they drop back and you have everything covered,
55:35
you don't also usually have guys ready to handle Patrick Malmes unless you're only gonna
55:39
rush three drop a bunch of guys into coverage. The Bengals kind of started
55:43
that in the playoffs a few years ago. It led to some issues,
55:45
but the Chiefs kind of figured that out, and so it's really hard to
55:49
contain him on his scrambles. On the flip side, we talked about Josh
55:52
Allen like being how you know, like you mentioned, he can do a
55:54
little bit of everything. I am curious to see what the plans are.
55:59
While both teams dedicate spies to each quarterback, will they just play a lot
56:04
of zone to constantly keep their eyes on them. I have noticed with Josh
56:07
Allen, doesn't matter if you spy them, he'll if he beats the spy
56:09
out the backside of the play, like away from the spy, like he's
56:13
gonna outrun him. Still right, He's good at tucking it down and just
56:16
deciding now's the time to run. Maholmes is a little bit slower to develop
56:21
into his runs. Usually he kind of he tries to move to throw.
56:23
I feel like a little bit more he tries, though he slow plays everything
56:27
to the line of scrimmage. He almost never tucks the ball until he gets
56:30
to the line of scrimmage. Josh Allen sees a big enough lane that he
56:32
can outrun the guy that's you know, on him, he's taking it a
56:36
lot quicker. So it's just different styles of runs. They're both going to
56:38
be effective. I don't know how either defense is really going to have an
56:42
answer other than to say, hey, I guess you got to put a
56:45
spy on him. Yeah, that's a fair point, and we've seen some
56:49
I remember when I think it was last year and the Bills carved him up
56:52
anyway, But when the Steelers used Minka Fitzpatrick to spy Josh Allen, I
56:57
was like, damn, like that's real, Like you're probably I mean,
57:00
TJ. Watt is still nuts, but like Miga Fitzpatrick is one of the
57:01
best players in the entire league and he's a dB, and like you're using
57:06
your safety to come down and spy, Like, yeah, it's wild.
57:07
You have to figure you have to figure out that piece. I looked up
57:10
Grant Mahomes only had two carries against the Dolphins in a wildcard round, you
57:15
know, two carries for forty one yards on those scrambles. But I wanted
57:19
to see what the EPA was. So his his EPA per attempt on those
57:23
two carries was his EPA per attempt was two point five, which was head
57:28
and shoulders above like everybody in the league. So he added two and a
57:31
half expected points just on those two scrambles. And again that's what he can
57:36
do. Like when he runs, he gets you and he gouges you and
57:39
is everybody's saying in the chat like he's so infuriating when he runs. Yeah,
57:43
you every time he takes off the run, I just assume it's going
57:46
to be a first down and like you you nailed with the piece because I
57:51
had that game on and when caught him, I was like, oh,
57:54
like I've grown so accustomed being like, oh, somebody's gonna run him down.
58:00
And there he just goes scooting and you nailed it too, Like he's
58:02
weaving like there's no sharp cuts. It's very just like he saunters his way
58:07
through defenses. And no, he's just like salsating out there. He's just
58:10
like the way he runs, he's just hitting the salsads. He goes in
58:13
there, like I don't know if it's the way his the way he runs,
58:16
and his hip angle looks weird as for an opponent, but like nobody
58:20
ever takes good angles to tackle them. He's moving faster with those little short
58:23
strides, and I think everybody anticipates him doing His chest is always so far
58:28
up because he has a weird like it's the it's the goofiest run and it's
58:31
been so effective throughout his career. He runs like Victor Cruz salsa dances with
58:37
his celebrations, and so yeah, it's just yeah, but it's so funny
58:40
to see it. Like they they both make plays with their legs, but
58:44
there is a difference in how they do it, and so, yeah,
58:45
who makes more plays with their legs? And I and I think it could
58:47
be so telling too, because if it's Allen, that's because the QB run
58:52
game is working and he's extending and he's probably running, yeah, for seventy
58:57
five yards plus somehow some way in this game. And if it's Homes that
59:00
make more plays with his legs, he probably ran and picked up like four
59:04
or five first downs on third downs and made some backbreaking moments that kind of
59:07
swung the pendulum. And that's always what it is to like Alan runs,
59:12
And it's these momentum swinging, pendulum swinging, high impact plays that get everybody
59:17
raring and going. When Mahomes does it, it's these little daggers that make
59:22
the defense. Just go like dude and like it swings the pendulum that way.
59:25
But either way, they're both extremely effective and so yeah, I love
59:29
I love you pulling out the little fingerwave too, back to and it's always
59:34
he's always got his mouthpiece hanging out like current. He's like always like this
59:36
and like mouthpiece etiquette is a huge one for me. Stefan Diggs is my
59:39
biggest. Just don't wear the mouthpiece like he never puts it in. It's
59:44
always dangling and like going all over. Just don't wear it. You don't
59:46
have to do this is in college. Don't wear it. I don't know
59:50
if it's fashion related or just an aesthetic thing. Oh, Charles is the
59:54
good one, he says. Mahomes runs like Rachel on the show Friends.
59:58
I like it. I like it, or maybe George Costanza kind of running
1:00:00
throughout the airport. It's nuts, But again it's I'd rather be a f
1:00:05
I don't care what it looks like. Effective is what matters, and he
1:00:07
is very effective. All right, So reach down our first two points in
1:00:10
the home stretch, Florida, Georges, what do you got for your last
1:00:15
matchup piece? Okay, so this ties into some of the injury stuff we
1:00:20
talked about earlier, and I don't think you can get out of a big
1:00:22
three points without having something, you know, directly tied to that. Right,
1:00:25
it's gonna be the Chiefs throwing the ball over the middle of the field.
1:00:29
That is gonna Yeah, that's got It's a little bit of a pickle.
1:00:31
That's kind of where the Steelers seem like they found a little bit of
1:00:34
rhythm in the second half. You know, later as that game went on,
1:00:37
it's the injury started piling up even more. Setting the level for the
1:00:39
Bills was new. It was Kleine, Dorian Williams and Cam Lewis for Teraron
1:00:44
Johnson. So it was all depth dudes, right and so like, And
1:00:46
some of these guys might be back, right like, there might be some
1:00:50
some guys that are coming back, but even still like they're still a very
1:00:52
banged up unit overall. Here come the Chiefs in a passing attack that hasn't
1:00:57
been great this year by their own standards, They've still been you know,
1:00:59
right there around the top ten. And it's still Andy Reid, it's still
1:01:01
Mahomes and they still have Travis Kelsey, still have all these guys. But
1:01:04
what they are gonna do, and this is what they did to the Dolphins,
1:01:06
who also have a lot of new pieces playing over the middle of the
1:01:08
field. They are gonna throw mesh, they are gonna throw wide cross they
1:01:12
are gonna throw levels, They're gonna throw every kind of middlefield crossing routes they
1:01:15
can at you. And they're gonna say, if you're in man coverage,
1:01:19
we're gonna bet that you don't have somebody that can run with Kelsey and run
1:01:22
Rachie Rice across the field, and most teams probably are not. Then they're
1:01:25
gonna say, if you're gonna play in zone, can all of your guys,
1:01:29
especially these guys that are filling in for injured players, can they communicate
1:01:31
these and pass off everybody on time? Can they get everybody situated where they
1:01:36
need be? And that's just really difficult when you have guys that are just
1:01:39
stepping in or playing with new people. And then like the emergence of Rashi
1:01:43
Rice has been so big for the Chiefs, and down the stretch of the
1:01:45
year they start using it more. He's now their clear cut wide receiver one
1:01:49
both in volume, snap count, targets everything. And now he's not just
1:01:53
getting wide receiver screens or hitches or slants. They're putting him on the digs
1:01:58
on the their you know, as they're following the white cross. They're using
1:02:00
him as the intermediate or the deep guy on some of these concepts. And
1:02:04
they're getting the ball with him working horizontally across the middle of the field.
1:02:07
And he's making huge plays. And he's had two, you know, thirty
1:02:10
plus yard plays that were mostly catch and run, but like he catches them
1:02:15
in space running away from a nickel defender there from Miami, wrapping around a
1:02:17
linebacker who just didn't quite get the right depth and didn't carry him across the
1:02:22
field. So they're gonna challenge it. They're going to challenge Buffalo's linebacker save
1:02:25
these Toron Johnson if he's out there or if it's a backup. They are
1:02:29
gonna make these guys pass this off handle everything over the middle of the field.
1:02:32
That's where the Chiefs have been the most comfortable throwing the ball this year,
1:02:36
and that's what they're going to keep, I think, trying to pound,
1:02:37
pound and pound into this game. They must have run fifteen different variations
1:02:42
of some kind of crossing routes across the middle of the field at all levels
1:02:45
against the Dolphins, and I would expect it to continue against the Bills.
1:02:49
I want to say Rice is the touchdown on the opening drive. I think
1:02:52
that was Mesh. I know Rashie Rice came across on the drag or maybe
1:02:53
some kind of like slither concept where he was like going through the traffic.
1:02:59
That's that's a great point. I contemplated making that one of mine here,
1:03:04
just you know, at the very least. Again, I don't think I
1:03:08
think Taron Johnson plays. I don't think Terre Bernard is gonna play, but
1:03:14
there's also a chance that Saron Johnson might be out. So like, no
1:03:15
matter how you slice it, you and like let's look at at the depth
1:03:20
spot and the linebackers in general. Like even so again, Bernard's probably not
1:03:23
gonna play. Matt Mlone was one of your starters. Bernard was one of
1:03:27
your starters. Tyrell Dotson was linebacker three. He's been starting with Bernard.
1:03:30
We'll see what happens with Dodson, but those are your top like three you're
1:03:34
potentially looking at right now, with linebackers four and five starting, or four
1:03:38
and six or five and six or something like that. And I worry about
1:03:43
the zone aspect piece of Travis Kelcey just having a nice, easy day where
1:03:47
all he does is just go and run, sit routes over the ball left
1:03:51
and right, and he just finds space and find space, because all it
1:03:53
takes is that brief little disconnect between two players at the level of the hook
1:04:00
curl and the curl flat player. All it takes is that split hesitation.
1:04:03
Kelsey's gonna find it. He's gonna settle in it and sit in it.
1:04:06
And I know there's been ups and downs with Travis kelce this year, but
1:04:11
I've said it so much for UH for MVS, Like I've been waiting for
1:04:15
MVS to have like a four catch, one hundred and thirty yard two touchdown
1:04:17
game, and maybe it's this week, But maybe this is the week where
1:04:20
Kelcey comes back up and it's a ten catch, one hundred and twenty yards,
1:04:24
three touchdown game for Travis Kelcey or some piece like that. Like I
1:04:29
there's so many matchup spots for the Bills that can get concerning because the defense
1:04:33
is a mass unit at this point when it comes to Kelsey, I would
1:04:36
really this compl case things because then you're always in Man, I'm putting Rasoul
1:04:41
Douglas on Travis Kelcey, and I am just beating the hell out of Travis
1:04:45
Kelcey on every single step. I know he hasn't been the same this year.
1:04:49
He's still a tremendous player, and I'm just gonna play the odds and
1:04:53
think, you know what, if I beat the hell out of you long
1:04:55
enough by the fourth quarter, maybe you'll start to wear down a little bit,
1:04:58
or maybe you'll start to get a little frustrated. Like I'm just I'm
1:05:01
smacking the hell out of them on every single play. I'm rerouting him.
1:05:03
I'm literally just beating the hell out of him, like you, you're not
1:05:08
gonna stop. And again, I know he's a different caliber player this year,
1:05:11
YadA YadA. With these high elite offensive dudes, you're not gonna stop
1:05:15
them. Like your goal is to contain them, and one of the ways
1:05:16
you can contain them is just by beating the hell out of them rep after
1:05:19
rep after rep. And Douglas has the length, he has the strength,
1:05:23
I'm putting him wherever Kelsey goes, and I'm beating the hell out of him.
1:05:26
If Kelsey's attached to the line, I'm putting the defensive end over him,
1:05:29
and I'm punching him in the face, maybe even literally, but more
1:05:31
metaphorically, and beating the hell out of them. And yet I wonder how
1:05:34
that translates to a coverage perspective. We've I tweeted it out during the game.
1:05:40
We've seen a lot of two man from the Bills on third down these
1:05:44
past several weeks. And that's not something I really thought the Bills defense would
1:05:47
ever do. And I don't know if it's schematic from McDermott or McDermott doing
1:05:51
it because of the personnel he has on defense now. Oh, also,
1:05:55
we haven't even talked about the fact that Christian Benford, their other really good
1:05:58
corner, potentially might not exited with the knee injury. I kind of know
1:06:01
what the injury is. I don't know if he's gonna play or not.
1:06:04
That's another piece that's in the wash and kind of gets a little wonky so
1:06:08
like, but Benford's got size and athleticism and some speed, like he can
1:06:12
help with that physicality. But we'll see if he plays. There's so many
1:06:15
like injuries literally could have just been a segment in and of itself, because
1:06:18
of how many there are for this bill's defense, but how it connects to
1:06:21
the coverages they play and where they can be exploited. To your point is
1:06:27
a great point because it really makes you vulnerable given how the Chiefs offense likes
1:06:32
to operate, and then it forces your hand if you're the bill's defense and
1:06:36
now you're kind of getting into you almost can't go zone because of the vulnerability
1:06:42
that you have in the middle based on the depth, guys, which is
1:06:44
forcing you to play man. But then, okay, like, do you
1:06:46
really want to live in that world? Now you're almost kind of playing Russian
1:06:48
Roulette where it's either like we're forcing an air completion or we're getting goued for
1:06:53
fifteen yards and then you're living and dying on every play and that's a hard
1:06:56
way to live. Yeah, and hey, the good news for that is
1:07:00
the Chiefs have struggled against two man this year. It's been something that they've
1:07:02
really struggled to find success against because Kelsey has not been, you know,
1:07:08
the same Travis Kelcey. He wasn't even just last year for most of the
1:07:11
year because the wide receiver room largely has been pretty poor. Now, if
1:07:15
you do play two man. You are inviting them a home scramble, right
1:07:16
like you were. You were definitely leaving that up to there. You're just
1:07:19
kind of saying, like, we hope we can contain him because you almost
1:07:23
have to do like like if you're gonna do two man, you almost can't
1:07:26
rush all four. You almost have to rush like three and have one of
1:07:29
them be like a pseudo spy at like two yard depth. But then it's
1:07:32
like, Okay, are you doing that with a defensive tackle? Can he
1:07:35
keep up with mahomes? Are you doing it with an edge? Like?
1:07:38
What do you like it? It's so many more schemandic questions. Yeah and
1:07:42
so yeah, But I do think that's something that you can throw out there.
1:07:45
It will be interesting to see how the Bills. I'm interested to see
1:07:47
which team is find the team that says I don't think Travis Kelcey is the
1:07:51
guy that is gonna beat us if we don't make him the entire key of
1:07:56
our defensive game plan. I'm not advocating for it. I just wonder what
1:07:59
the first team is gonna be to do that, because I think he still
1:08:02
gets that attention if he deserves it. But also he has been very up
1:08:06
and down this year. He had a good game against the Dolphins that he
1:08:09
dropped a few passes, like he left fifty bunch. He left fifty yards
1:08:13
on the field, which would have put him well over one hundred, like
1:08:15
if it was one of his just overall better games in terms of getting open,
1:08:18
which he hadn't done most of the year. Now, a lot of
1:08:20
that was the Dolphins splitz the ton YadA, YadA, YadA. But so
1:08:24
I'm just interested to see how teams handle that. I will say, like
1:08:27
the emergence of Rice and even bring in McCole Hardman back who has not had
1:08:30
an impact while Patrick Mahlmes is playing, but just that speed element, the
1:08:33
fact that they now have somebody that can just run by somebody, because NBS
1:08:38
isn't that guy anymore. He's been a great vertical threat, but like he
1:08:40
looks slower. He's not just gonna run by you. He has to set
1:08:43
it up. But Cole Hardman, if you're not ready, he is gonna
1:08:45
run right by you if he catches it, if he sees the football it's
1:08:48
up in the air. I don't know the answer to that, but he
1:08:50
can run by you. So like they just have some more answers now than
1:08:55
I think they had the last time the Chiefs and the Bills met, than
1:08:57
they have for most of the year, So it's gonna be interesting to see
1:09:00
how they go about playing. Is Rasul Douglas gonna follow Kelsey If that's the
1:09:03
case, who's the matchup? I would assume tarn Johnson, especially when Rice
1:09:06
is in the slot, but he'll flex out wide like they move him around.
1:09:11
They will hide him from guys where they put him into bunches and stuff.
1:09:14
They have really found a way to weaponize him a ton lately, so
1:09:16
it's still gonna be just one of the big guys to watch, I think
1:09:18
in this one. I can't tell you how much it annoys me that Mikole
1:09:21
Hartman is back, but Richie James is seventeen and not Hardmon and Hardman's twelve,
1:09:27
Like it drives me, and especially because their body types are kind of
1:09:30
similar if you look, because they're both small, super fast, shifty dudes.
1:09:32
Yeah. Well, although James is more stop start shifty and Harman is
1:09:36
straight lined. It I'm always like, who's twelve and it's like Mcole Hartmon
1:09:41
and I'm like, oh, that's right. And then like Richie James will
1:09:44
make a play and they're like big catch from James, and I'm like,
1:09:45
that's not harmon dep Like it's such a stupid thing to get annoyed by,
1:09:48
but it drives me nuts. I think it is a decent enough point though,
1:09:51
too, especially with like how the Bills play their ZWN coverages and match
1:09:57
even if it you just use mcole hartmon as like hey, dude, like
1:10:00
you're gonna get a work out this game. We're probably not throwing you the
1:10:01
ball, but you're gonna be pulling coverage left and right, Like we're sending
1:10:04
you to pull and clear out left and right, and maybe we'll throw you
1:10:08
one or two, but you're just clearing out to try and make space for
1:10:11
Rahi Rice on that dig. Like we're running dagger concepts this game, and
1:10:14
you're pulling and clearing out and we're getting Rashi Rice on that dig behind you,
1:10:17
Like he's got that speed that can influence that, and there is significant
1:10:20
value to that. It just sucks they have to be that guy. Yeah,
1:10:25
I'm wondering your point about Kelsey ties in really well with my first point,
1:10:28
Like I'm wondering who that first team is that's like, we don't have
1:10:31
to do this with Kelsey. He's not that guy. And it's like okay,
1:10:33
yeah, here's your ten catches for one hundred and thirty yards and a
1:10:36
three touchdowns. Crap, there you go and waiting for it all right,
1:10:40
Like this ties a little bit into my first point here. So Stefan Diggs
1:10:45
and everybody and their mother has talked about it. Myself and Eric have broken
1:10:47
it down into the film room, We've I've talked about it on Twitter a
1:10:50
whole bunch. Like Diggs's production, it really dipped down the stretch, especially
1:10:55
once Joe Brady took over for the offense, and a lot of it was
1:10:58
just the Chiefs example, with a really good game, the funnels into a
1:11:01
larger part, but it was teams were just taking away the inside leverage or
1:11:04
playing inside leverage and take away the inside from Stefan Diggs like Lugerious Sneed would
1:11:09
just deter throws the digs just because on the snap like he would be impressed
1:11:14
head up and on the snap he would just step inside and take away the
1:11:16
inside. And we've seen teams doing that to digs all year, and teams
1:11:20
have been able to mitigate and even eliminate digs at times, not by going
1:11:26
with crazy brackets or cloud or doing all these wonky things on the back end,
1:11:30
just by with simple leverage from their outside corner, they've been able to
1:11:33
take them away. And with the matchups that have gone down the stretch,
1:11:38
like my thought has been in these bigger games, like especially I was thinking
1:11:40
about the New England game and the Miami game. I was like, you
1:11:44
know, does Belichick and Fangio think that they can remove digs from the equation
1:11:48
without having to allocate the normal resources to remove digs from the equation? And
1:11:54
then, similar to the Kelsey thing in my head is like, some team's
1:11:57
gonna think they can do that, And here comes the thirteen catches for a
1:12:00
hundred and forty yards and two touchdowns for Stefan Diggs, and Diggs has been
1:12:03
better in the past couple of games, and we're still not seeing that like
1:12:05
ultra production that we're used to seeing from him as one of the best wide
1:12:09
receivers in the NFL. And that ties into my first matchup piece, so
1:12:13
I had it ranked this number one. But again they're all evil equal.
1:12:15
Yike's falling apart My first, Oh, stop saying first, my last matchup
1:12:20
piece here for Bill's versus Chiefs Steve Spagnolo versus Stefan Diggs. Stefan Diggs in
1:12:28
his career, these are his career averages for regular season and the playoffs.
1:12:32
Eight point six targets, five point nine receptions, seventy three yards, zero
1:12:36
point four to eight touchdowns. So on a regular game basis, he averages
1:12:41
about nine targets, six catches, seventy yards and a half a touchdown.
1:12:45
Right, Diggs in he has six career games as a Buffalo Bill versus Steve
1:12:50
Spagnolo, He's got fifty four targets, thirty one catches, three hundred and
1:12:54
seventy one yards, two touchdowns. That's an average of nine targets five point
1:12:59
two which is sixty two yards and zero point three touchdowns. Right, So
1:13:03
not too far off from his career averages, But that data set includes his
1:13:10
massive twenty twenty two regular season game where he had thirteen targets for ten catches,
1:13:15
one hundred and forty eight yards and one touchdown. That is very much
1:13:18
an outlier in Stefan Diggs is a Bill versus Steve Spagnolo with the Chiefs.
1:13:23
If you remove that one game, so that one out of the six.
1:13:26
In the other five games, he's got forty one targets, twenty one catches,
1:13:30
two hundred and twenty three yards, and one touchdown. That's an average
1:13:34
of eight point two targets, so close to his career average of eight point
1:13:38
six four point two catches, which is way off from his five point nine
1:13:42
career forty four point six yards, which is way off from his seventy three
1:13:46
and then an average of point two touchdowns per game, which is about fifty
1:13:50
percent less than his point four eight. Steve Spagnolo has taken away Stefon Diggs
1:13:55
on pretty much every matchup. Five of the six he has taken away Stefon
1:13:58
Diggs in those five games eight targets, six catches forty six yards, eleven
1:14:03
targets, six catches seventy seven yards, five targets, two catches sixty nine
1:14:09
yards. The twenty twenty one Playoffs, which was the big game Davis game,
1:14:13
six targets, three catches seven yards, and then eleven targets, four
1:14:17
catches twenty four yards. He has significantly limited Stefan Digs aside from the one
1:14:23
game. Again, with the thirteen targets, ten catches, one hundred and
1:14:26
forty eight yards, one touchdown, whether it's been schematic design, whether it's
1:14:30
been with alignment personnel. Spagnolo has taken away stefan digs in these games.
1:14:36
Again, like the average numbers are down, So just in those five games,
1:14:41
removing that huge outlier eight point two targets, four point two catches,
1:14:45
forty four point six yards, he's made digs a non factor and the two
1:14:48
week We've talked about it a bit in this episode. But the two big
1:14:51
things for me that Spags brings to the table, especially in these big game
1:14:55
situations, they give him the whole playoff Spags Moniker. Everybody and their mother
1:14:59
was tweeting out the dots and the All twenty two clip where the safeties are
1:15:02
playing ring around the rosie on third down against Tua like I guess Belichick.
1:15:06
Belichick used to do it at times and called it twirl like. But Spags
1:15:10
again, this is another example of Spags getting into his bag. You know,
1:15:13
no rhyme intended there, and just making life hell for quarterbacks. But
1:15:16
his two big things that he brings in big game situations are his ability to
1:15:19
disguise coverages like nudge judge and his ability to dial up pressure. And those
1:15:25
pieces are present no matter who they play, and they'll be present versus the
1:15:29
Bills on Sunday. It doesn't matter if the Chiefs defense sucks who or who
1:15:31
they're playing in the playoffs. Spags is going to make you have to process
1:15:34
the coverages pre to post snap and he's going to dial up pressure. But
1:15:39
a huge piece for him that his Bills specific is his ability to do those
1:15:43
two things, but also limits the fond Diggs. Again, he's been able
1:15:45
to do it schematically with coverage and with leverage, and it helps now that
1:15:50
he's got two corners with legitimate inside outside versatility in Lugerius Sneed and mister Trent
1:15:58
McDuffie. Sneed started out as the slot guy before he moved to the outside
1:16:00
in his career. McDuffie has a little bit of both. I played a
1:16:03
ton of outside stuff at Washington. Obviously made the All Pro team this year
1:16:08
as a nickel corner or a slot corner. Those two dudes also increase the
1:16:12
menu options for Spags, so it's not like, oh, okay, cool,
1:16:15
we can just kick digs into the slot and get him away from Sneed.
1:16:18
No, maybe Sneed travels with him into the slot or even if he
1:16:20
doesn't, cool now he's gonna draw McDuffie, who is a legitimate piece as
1:16:25
well. My thought going into this game is someone else is going to have
1:16:29
to beat the Chiefs as a pass catcher because history shows us that Spags will
1:16:32
not let Stefan Diggs beat him, which is which if you're the Bills,
1:16:36
that's fine, right. That's why you draft Dalton Kinkaid in the first round.
1:16:40
It's why you signed Dawson Knox to an extension. Khalil Shakira has been
1:16:43
very big in high leverage moments. We'll see if Gabe Davis is active or
1:16:46
not, but he's got multiple big games against Kansas City under his belt,
1:16:49
partly because Spags is allocated resources to stopping Stefan Diggs. And again, I
1:16:56
think the run game will be tremendously important either way. Long story short,
1:17:00
for me, I think there is a good chance that Diggs is somewhat of
1:17:02
a quote unquote non factor in this game because of how Steve Spagnolo has defended
1:17:06
him and how Diggs has done against spags Chiefs defenses historically and in the past.
1:17:12
And this isn't because of any nonsense where it's like, oh, because
1:17:15
his chemistry with Allen sucks, or Josh Allen hates so and he's being phased
1:17:18
out of the offense because they're gonna get rid of him this offseason. It's
1:17:21
not because of any of that. It's literally because of Steve Spagnobo. Diggs
1:17:26
has one strong game out of six with the Bills against Bags, and it
1:17:30
is very much an outlier. Again, you remove that big ten catch,
1:17:32
one hundred and forty eight yard thirteen target performance. His average against Spags is
1:17:36
eight point two targets, four point two catches, forty four point six yards,
1:17:42
zeno point two touchdowns, all significantly below his career numbers. And again,
1:17:45
big game gift defensive coordinator, it makes sense, right, who's your
1:17:48
best player? Okay, we're gonna take it away. We're going to tie
1:17:50
your right hand behind your back and make you beat us with the left.
1:17:54
And if you're the Bills, again, that's where your other pass catchers come
1:17:56
into play, or the legs of Josh Allen, or the run game.
1:18:00
Aside from Josh Allen, you have other options. So it's not like if
1:18:03
Diggs goes away the offense sputters or falters, But I do think Spags tries
1:18:08
to take him away, and I wonder with how he's been taken away down
1:18:12
the stretch, if Spags maybe doesn't have to allocate as many resources as he
1:18:15
normally does, and then how does that come into play. That's been one
1:18:19
of the big changes. So yeah, that Steve Spagnolo has in matchups with
1:18:24
number one wide receivers, he has frequently gone to, especially on third down
1:18:28
double coverages. He'll do two. They did two double plenty first the Dolphins
1:18:30
even still this year right where they're just say, hey, throw to anybody
1:18:34
besides Waddle and Tyreek Hill, like they don't they're not afraid. They'll do
1:18:36
whatever they need to know, and they're getting in, they're getting at the
1:18:39
line of scrimmage and they're jam like that one jam that Snead had on Hill
1:18:43
where he put him into the dirt, Like just yeah, they'll they'll get
1:18:45
in your face. They don't care. They're challenging everything you mentioned. Mouth
1:18:49
piece etiquette for stefphan On Diggs as like he bet he might want to strap
1:18:53
it up this week because there'll be a play where Jerry steedge comes for him
1:18:56
at that No, he's going to He's done it to every receiver. And
1:18:58
so what first caught for what you said you were reading off like his stats
1:19:01
for Steve Spagnolo like average, And once you remove that big game, if
1:19:04
he has that exact game this week, that would be one of the best
1:19:08
wide receiver one games against l Jerius Snead all season. That's how good Lagerious
1:19:11
Steed has been. He has been absolutely dominant. And yeah, Steve spagnel
1:19:15
is gonna give him help against top end quarters or wide receivers. He did
1:19:18
so. Jerry Steed covered Tyreek Hill plenty. He didn't go one on one
1:19:21
with him for half of those snaps. There's a safety over the top.
1:19:25
It's not always a double team, but there's gonna be help. But that's
1:19:28
that's life in the NFL, right, And so Sneed's gonna follow Diggs anytime
1:19:31
he's outside. He's gonna make life how long. He's gonna be overly physical,
1:19:34
he's gonna push him around, he's gonna beat him up, he's gonna
1:19:38
make him feel every single play, and he's gonna really challenge him. And
1:19:41
this year Sneed's been so good. It's allowed Steve Spagnolo to not have to
1:19:45
roll coverage there. You can call, you know, whatever you want quarters.
1:19:48
You could be in two man whatever you want to be. The safety
1:19:51
can provide help but not have to change his actual role. He doesn't have
1:19:56
to change his alignment. He doesn't have to kick out wider to offer help.
1:19:59
Like you passed when they didn't have this true legitimate shut down type corner.
1:20:03
They didn't have that. You do have to alter your coverage show of
1:20:06
the top. You do have to maybe throw in a little bit more help
1:20:09
this year, they don't need to. They can just run their base defense.
1:20:12
Say hey, sneed go help Digs. You have a safety over the
1:20:15
top. If you get beat deep so you were saying earlier, takeaway the
1:20:17
inside, just say hey, make him go outside, hit him with the
1:20:20
jam. If he beats you over the top, you've now given time for
1:20:23
the safety get get there. Guess what, Jerry Steed's gonna throw hands and
1:20:26
then he's gonna make it really difficult for you to get over the top.
1:20:28
So I would be a little surprised if Diggs has a huge game, especially
1:20:32
from the outside, because that's going to expect Steed to be on them.
1:20:34
And it's like you mentioned, it's not like it's easier when you go inside.
1:20:38
Trent McDuffie isn't lu jerious sneed in coverage, but he's still really damn
1:20:42
good, right, And so you can't run away from the Chief's best cover
1:20:45
guy by going into the slot, because that's where Trent McDuffie's gonna be waiting
1:20:48
no matter what you do there. So the Chiefs I think are pretty well
1:20:53
equipped to handle digs. I think the guys that have to step up are
1:20:57
gonna be the tight ends. It's gonna be Nocks, it's gonna be can
1:21:00
That's where the Chiefs don't have a great answer. Gabe Davis has had big
1:21:03
games against the Chiefs in the past. I don't know one. Mike Cues
1:21:06
isn't lining up out there this year, right, So like Mike Cues is
1:21:11
not there, Josh Williams Jalen Watson are very competent outside corners. They can
1:21:15
handle Gabe Davis's relatively vertical route tree. They'll be I think they will be
1:21:20
fine there, right. It's just a matter of what The Chiefs don't have
1:21:24
a great answer for the tight ends, whether it's one or two on the
1:21:26
field at the same time. That's where I think the most meat is on
1:21:29
the bone for the Bills in the passing game, because again I don't see
1:21:32
great matchups from the other receivers versus chief secondary. And that's not a knock
1:21:36
on anybody, just the chief secondary has been that good. They have studs
1:21:41
all over the place back there. The way those corners play mixed with Steve
1:21:44
Spagnolo and then the pressure they get, it's hard on any team, but
1:21:47
they just they don't quite have the same chess piece answers to tight ends that
1:21:51
they had had in the past with a Tyron Matthew or even a jan Thornhill.
1:21:56
They just don't quite have that same level of athleticism and experience ready right
1:22:00
now. So like that's that's where I would see the most meat on the
1:22:01
bone. That's fair, and there was I'm thinking there was a couple of
1:22:05
snaps against the Chiefs when they when they first played it in the year.
1:22:09
I think it was Jalen Wattson was overdigs and I think it's I think it's
1:22:15
you's just basic cover two and Watson's trying to push from the outside. But
1:22:18
Mike it Oh, I have so much tape in my head and I've watched
1:22:23
so much Chiefs tape that it's either just it was either justin reader Mike Edwards.
1:22:26
But they're playing a too high shell and the safety to that side,
1:22:30
it's going to the bottom of the screen if you're looking at the all twenty
1:22:31
two Bills are going from right to left, and that split field safety is
1:22:35
so far over the top over digs, like it's basically like there he's playing
1:22:42
like a third of the field because that's how far over I think it's Mike
1:22:45
Edwards. No, it's just the read. It's so far over the top
1:22:47
over digs to give Watson help. And I wonder, like how much of
1:22:51
that do we see from Spags in this game, where like you said,
1:22:55
like, is it just you know, Snead you're going wherever Digs goes that
1:22:58
way we don't have to significantly roll cover over the top like that because of
1:23:00
how you're playing, And or again like is it just as simple as you
1:23:04
know we're gonna play inside leverage the one I'm thinking of and we showed it
1:23:08
in the film room. There's the I think in the first half of Bills
1:23:13
first Chiefs earlier this year, Bills are going from left to right and Alan
1:23:15
goes. He takes that deep shot to Digs into the red zone and Snead
1:23:18
is on him. The ball kind of just falls on the inside, like
1:23:20
because all lagerious steat on the snap. He's head up, he steps inside,
1:23:25
Digs goes vertical, Snead pins the inside arm turns and looks and the
1:23:30
ball falls a little to his inside because he just won't give Digs that inside
1:23:32
leverage. And there's not crazy help over the top. They're not clouding and
1:23:35
kind of bracketing or doing any type of game. It's not a one double.
1:23:39
It's just Snead take away the inside piece. We know what routes he
1:23:43
likes to run in the situation, and that's how you're gonna play it.
1:23:45
And that's what you do. And there's so many whether however you look at
1:23:47
it. And again even too from the numbers, like you talked about what
1:23:50
they've done this year. I mentioned earlier they're fifth and dv away against wide
1:23:55
receiver once on the year, and a lot of that is due to lagarious
1:23:59
Snead, And now some of that is arbitrary. How FTN Fantasy defines wide
1:24:03
receiver ones versus twos, but pretty much everybody knows who each team's wide receiver
1:24:08
one is. It can give murky looking at twos and threes. But I
1:24:11
also think that the Chiefs are a good example of why this is accurate for
1:24:15
how their coverage structure works, because again they're fifth and DVA versus wide receiver
1:24:18
ones. They're twenty fifth in DVA verse wide receiver twos, but second versus
1:24:25
wide receiver threes, who are usually wide receiver threes. A slot receiver who
1:24:30
covers the slot for the Chiefs, Trent McDuffie. There's a reason that the
1:24:33
Chiefs are top five against wide receiver ones and threes, and that's because of
1:24:36
Snead and because of McDuffie. This also might be a big game depending on
1:24:41
who you define as wide receiver two. If it is Gabe Davis, if
1:24:44
it is Deontay Harvey or Trentcherfield, or if it is more of a Dalton
1:24:47
Kink Dawson Knox type, feel this might be yeah, tack whoever that outside
1:24:51
corner is, and live with the fact that you know Digs is kind of
1:24:56
going to be a non factor, and maybe Diggs only has three catches for
1:24:59
thirty six yards. You can still put up thirty points with Diggs doing that
1:25:02
if you hit your other guys and run the football. And I don't think
1:25:05
the Bills should go into it and just accept like, oh, well,
1:25:10
Diggs is going to be a non factor. It is what it is.
1:25:12
I just want to put this out there again because so much of the conversation
1:25:15
for the fans has been around why can't they get Digs the ball? Why
1:25:17
can't they get Digs to the ball. And this is like the game where
1:25:21
he usually does not get it. So if he doesn't or when he does
1:25:26
it, don't think, oh Diggs disappeared again. No, this is a
1:25:29
coordinator in a defense that has made his almost you know, number one thing
1:25:33
to take away Stefon Diggs since he has been with the Buffalo Bills. Yeah,
1:25:38
and then this year they seem even better equipped at taking away the top
1:25:42
wide receivers whoever. You know, however you want to signify that, right,
1:25:45
So it's just if it's not a big Digs game, I don't think
1:25:49
that's a panic inducing thing. The Chiefs have been great at it. Here's
1:25:51
a here's a fun stat for you. The Chiefs were they allowed zero three
1:25:58
hundred yard passers this year and only two receivers to go over one hundred yards.
1:26:01
And those two receivers were Christian Kirk in Week two and then Josh Palmer.
1:26:06
Would that have been in what week seven? Those are the only two
1:26:11
guys, two receivers that went over one hundred and one. Also, no
1:26:14
one is giddy. If you gave everybody ten guests, no one's gonna be
1:26:15
Oh yeah, Christian Kirk and Josh Palmer, no one was gonna right,
1:26:17
Yeah, Christian Kirk had like eighty yards on the final drive or I was
1:26:24
gonna say that was able to over. Yeah, I was gonna say kind
1:26:27
of garbage timey because I have I lost that week in fantasy to somebody had
1:26:30
who had Christian Kirk because it was just the game's over and here's Christian Kirk.
1:26:32
Christian Kirk, Christian Kirk. Yeah, very fair, but yeah no,
1:26:35
And so like that's just that that I think right there kind of is
1:26:38
in like I wish I had the tweet like bookmarks, but like you can
1:26:41
look around for it. La Jarious Seed's gone like he's been matched up against
1:26:44
wide receiver ones all year and he's giving up nothing. Now, obviously you
1:26:47
could. You will find matchups, like you said, where things is gonna
1:26:50
be matched up on non lagarious need at times, but for the most part
1:26:54
and high leverage situations, he's gonna see sneed. And it's just the way
1:26:58
the Chiefs are playing right now. It's gonna be very difficult, so they
1:27:00
will have to find other people to step up. Who's that gonna be.
1:27:03
It's up in the air. At this point. The Tidens just seem to
1:27:06
me to be like the best matchup for him. Yeah, I agree,
1:27:10
whether it's a I'm looking at this game to be a big Dalton Kinkaid game
1:27:15
or Dawson Knox or maybe more Kohlio Shakir. I really think it's gonna be
1:27:17
spread out. I think you're gonna have a couple of dudes who produce some
1:27:19
numbers, and I really don't think the passing game should be too much.
1:27:24
Like I think a legitimate winning stat line for Josh Allen is like two hundred
1:27:28
and forty yards and two touchdowns, but the Bills ran for like one hundred
1:27:31
and sixty or some kind of combination with that, like lean into Josh Allen's
1:27:34
legs, whether it's with the design or the scramble or again your I don't
1:27:39
put any stock into the Pro Bowl, but lean into your Pro Bowl running
1:27:42
back who had all these scrimmage yards and rushing yards this year and all these
1:27:45
pieces and yeah there's man. This matchup has really fun schematic pieces for each
1:27:51
team because each team has their own struggles and their own sets of vulnerabilities.
1:27:56
Each team has their own sets of strengths and points that they really lean on.
1:28:00
Each team knows that about each team and how to attack it and how
1:28:03
to combat it and all this stuff. And it's just going to be a
1:28:05
real true chess match to see, you know, who moves the pieces better.
1:28:09
And I think that's honestly been the biggest difference in the playoffs has been
1:28:15
you know, you have Andy Reid who has been around the block a million
1:28:18
times and a million more. He's seen everything under the sun. And Steve's
1:28:21
Bagnolo is basically in that boat as well in terms of his track record in
1:28:26
pedigree, and so much of playoff football comes down to adjustments and schematic pieces,
1:28:32
and that's why it's so hard to beat the Chiefs. Yes, they
1:28:34
have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelcey and really good individual players in multiple All pros.
1:28:39
But you've got like two of the best guys who have ever done it
1:28:44
on each side of the ball, with Andy Reid and Steves Bagnolo, and
1:28:46
they run your crew, and Ken Sean McDermott and Joe Brady match that in
1:28:49
go toe to toe and let alone all the other individual pieces. Man,
1:28:54
it's a super fun week, whether you're a Bills fan, Chiefs fan,
1:28:58
or just as a football fan in general. And then the story line pieces
1:29:00
again of like mahomes is first true of like I even tweeted it, like,
1:29:03
of course Mahomes's first true road playoff game comes in Buffalo. The only
1:29:08
one that would have been close to being like as fitting would be in Cincinnati,
1:29:13
like the two teams that, like the Chiefs, have been rival with.
1:29:15
But considering what's happened with Bills and Chiefs regular season versus playoffs, thirteen
1:29:19
seconds, all of that, it's just so fitting that it happens in Buffalo
1:29:23
and that, you know, kind of spices up the drama a little bit.
1:29:25
It's gonna be a fun game. And I'm also definitely having PTSD of
1:29:29
another divisional round game against Kansas City at six thirty on a Sunday, just
1:29:33
like the thirteen seconds game was. I have not forgotten. So Like,
1:29:36
as soon as I saw that, I was like, of course it's the
1:29:39
Sunday six thirty game. And I was like, but it's in Buffalo.
1:29:42
It's different this time. And then the back of my mind, I was
1:29:43
like, is it. Yeah, absolutely wild, But I'm excited for this
1:29:46
game. You're excited. Everybody should be excited, and I was excited to
1:29:49
have you on the show. I'm gonna let you take your leave. Now.
1:29:51
We went longer than I thought, but again we both talked it is
1:29:54
what it is for those watching live. We're still going to continue on the
1:29:57
show. I've been starting a bunch of pieces from the live chat. We're
1:30:00
gonna keep trudging on here, but we're gonna send Matt on his merry way.
1:30:03
Matt again, you gave me a whole bunch of flowers and kind words
1:30:09
when you came on, but I send them right back your way. Like
1:30:11
I think you're tremendous. There's a reason I continuously bring you on the show
1:30:15
every single time. It's cheaply the blush. Yeah, you should, you
1:30:17
should. I don't really give up. I don't give up. Praise a
1:30:20
lot, but no, you're tremendous and I love what you guys do with
1:30:23
the Casey Sports You wipe the tear, but no, you're awesome. I
1:30:26
appreciate you taking the time just in case people don't know who you are and
1:30:29
what you do. The floor is yours. Tell everybody who you are,
1:30:31
plug your work, anything and everything wherever you are. Oh man, well
1:30:34
as always thanks for having me. I really do appreciate it. You know.
1:30:38
I don't care if we come in here and talk for ninety minutes,
1:30:40
you know, a three hours, whatever it is. I have fun.
1:30:43
I had a good time. Time always flies. I do love bills fans.
1:30:46
You guys are great, even if I might troll you guys during this
1:30:49
week on Twitter. So if you do go follow me on Twitter. You
1:30:51
know, don't take anything personally. I am trolling. I honestly do love
1:30:55
you guys. You know. I work for a company called Casey Sports Network.
1:30:59
We cover all Kansas City local sports, college pro soccer, football,
1:31:03
baseball. We kind of do a little bit of everything. I mostly just
1:31:05
focused on Chiefs and college football. I love to talk about the Chiefs.
1:31:10
Everything we had to break down film X's No's podcast, all of our game
1:31:13
previews and stuff. So on our YouTube channel which is just Casey Sports Network.
1:31:16
If you ever want any idea you know about what they're going on with
1:31:19
the Chiefs, I just come on over. There will be a new show
1:31:21
every single day from somebody going up telling you a little bit about what's going
1:31:26
on that day. We are doing our game preview of the Chiefs and the
1:31:29
Bills later this week. That's on Thursday night at nine Eastern Live. If
1:31:31
you ever want to come check that out and just see what you know,
1:31:34
three Chiefs fans who will get into a little bit X's and No's for you
1:31:36
guys, a little bit of what we are thinking our key matchups. Always
1:31:40
pop over there and check that out. And as always, guys, I
1:31:42
appreciate you having me on and it's gonna be a fun game. I am
1:31:45
excited for this game, even though it makes me a little nervous because I
1:31:46
you know, Chiefs Bills, it's a big game. That's fair. I
1:31:49
don't know if you have it played on your way out, but even the
1:31:51
trolling, you always throw several jabs in at the Bills or either me during
1:31:56
the show and you did this time, so I don't know. Again last
1:31:59
time you threw it in there as you left, so I don't know.
1:32:01
Getting ahead of myself here, I'm always waiting for that other shoe to drop
1:32:05
it. Yea, I'm surprised you didn't go to the well. I mean,
1:32:09
listen, I'm still reeling from the fact that Kadarius Tony can't line up
1:32:13
right and so like that like changed everything about the season, right, It's
1:32:16
here's the thing thirteen seconds happened is the playoffs. It was more high leverage,
1:32:20
but like I feel like you guys got one back with Kadarius Tony not
1:32:23
knowing they're nowhere. They're nowhere, so they no, they are not even
1:32:30
close. One person lining up off size is not equivalent to the multitude of
1:32:35
things that have to go wrong for thirteen seconds plus it's the playoffs. How
1:32:39
dare you not even close? Not even close? Real? Quick? One
1:32:44
quick question is you're doing gonna get ideo? But quick, what was going
1:32:46
through your mind when you watched that play live? Like it's a regular season
1:32:50
game, it's not the end of the world. But for the Bills then
1:32:53
they kind of did need to win that game. Right, So, like
1:32:55
what was going through your mind when you see a long pass complete the Travis
1:32:58
Kelsey hill throw the ball to another player across the field and go for a
1:33:03
touchdown. My first thought was that was awesome. My second thought was was
1:33:10
that planned or off script? And then my third thought was, man,
1:33:14
this sucks. But I also wasn't too because here's the thing. I always
1:33:17
go into those situations expecting I expect my homes to lead you down and score.
1:33:23
My thought is, is there gonna be enough time left on the clock,
1:33:26
And even if that touchdown had counted, I think there was over a
1:33:29
minute left on the clock. I wasn't. I was like, okay,
1:33:32
it is what it is like, you're gonna be down twenty four to twenty,
1:33:34
go down and get a score. It is what it is. You
1:33:35
gotta do it. Like I expected them to score in some form or fashion.
1:33:41
So with the time left, I wasn't too distraught. The way it
1:33:44
happened, though, was a little bit frank wycheck. You know, rest
1:33:47
is soul home run, throwback music City miracles, so that maybe me want
1:33:51
to throw up a little bit. But and there was a little bit of
1:33:55
the of course, like of course, because that of course that would happen,
1:33:58
like I tell you another and they got it too. The Chargers almost
1:34:02
executed all those hail Mary's. Like that almost worked against the Bills too.
1:34:05
What's it? I forgot who it was? Cut it back inside when he
1:34:10
could have stayed up a field with all the Blockers. And there's always something
1:34:15
I am confident in nothing I've said it. I don't know if I've said
1:34:16
it to you, but like even with thirteen seconds, I remember telling my
1:34:20
wife was like, oh my god, and I was like nope, like
1:34:24
nope, but she was like, there's only thirteen seconds. I'm like no,
1:34:26
Like I was like there. My thought was, Okay, Harrison Bucker
1:34:29
is gonna have to make like a sixty five yard kick, but it's possible.
1:34:31
But in the back of my mind, even though I was like,
1:34:33
man, it would really have a lot would have to go right for the
1:34:38
Chiefs to tie it here, I am confident in nothing as growing up as
1:34:42
a Bills fan, and even and I say this all the time, and
1:34:44
even though the Red Sox have won a bunch of World Series in my time
1:34:46
growing up as a Red Sox fan and a Bills fan, I trust nothing
1:34:49
I'm constantly paranoid. I'm always looking over my shoulder until the clock hits zero
1:34:55
and everybody comes on the field and is excited. I trust that no game
1:34:59
is over. I don't care what the score is, what the situation.
1:35:01
So yeah, and even more so, knowing Mahomes and that offense, I
1:35:04
expected them to score. So I was kind of like, Okay, at
1:35:06
least there's a good time on the clock, Like let's go down and tie
1:35:09
it up. But you know, Tony was off sides, and then Mahomes
1:35:13
wanted them to not call it because he was like, oh, I don't
1:35:15
even want to get into it. That maybe taking that off the game.
1:35:17
Uh yeah, that was. That was a rough showing. That was.
1:35:21
That was what fourteen fourteen weeks of frustration with the with his own team,
1:35:27
not even the situation at hand. Yeah, it was. That was very
1:35:30
much the boiling point, Like he was yelling at refs and the coaches and
1:35:32
players and even like even when he came to midfield to say what's up to
1:35:36
Alan, like he was like the worst call I've ever seen, Like he
1:35:39
was just so mad. Yeah, he it was a rough week point,
1:35:42
Yeah, it was, But yeah, all right, well that's it.
1:35:45
I don't think I have a whole lot. I didn't. I didn't really
1:35:46
have a jab planned. I just wanted to talk about that real quick.
1:35:49
The Bills have won the last two versus the Chiefs, and the Chiefs have
1:35:53
won the last two playoff games versus the Bills. So that's that's the best
1:35:57
I got. That's the that's the that's the that's the best I got here.
1:35:59
I'm not gonna lie. I have one hundred percent still thinking you're gonna
1:36:01
say something as you leave, but we'll see what happens. Again. I
1:36:04
appreciate the hell out of you. Thank you for joining me. I like,
1:36:08
I really we could just do this for forever. You're Yeah, You're
1:36:12
You're tremendous. Shout out to you. Enjoy the rest of your nights and
1:36:15
everything you got going on. I'm sure I'll see on the on the twitters
1:36:18
and in the twitter verse and enjoy the rest of your week and everything you
1:36:20
got going on. Godspeed, and I'm gonna brace myself and wait for you
1:36:24
to throw a dig at me as you go. Thank you. You gotta
1:36:27
get out of here. If these two rings are getting heavy, I knew
1:36:29
it some a bitch, get out, get out. I knew it.
1:36:32
I knew it. I'm so mad. I'm so mad. Classy guy,
1:36:40
he is tremendous though. And everything they do with the Casey Sports Network again
1:36:45
they break down the game in a way that it's not just Homer uh Casey
1:36:53
stuff like again x's and o's and pieces and schematics, and they really break
1:36:57
down the game. And and I say it anytime I have a guest,
1:37:00
I think, even if you're just more of a Bills fan than you are
1:37:01
a football fan, it's important to stay up on every other team in the
1:37:04
NFL because every other team is your enemy. And he's one of the go
1:37:06
tos for me for anything and everything. Kansas City Chiefs Now start to pivot
1:37:12
a little bit in this episode as I put on the banner their questions from
1:37:15
the live chat, questions, thoughts, comments, concerns, whatever you folks
1:37:18
have as we start to finish up here on the back end of this show,
1:37:23
throw it up into the chat. What are your thoughts coming out of
1:37:24
the Steelers game? Do you have thoughts going into the game against the Chiefs.
1:37:27
Do you have something in particular to I don't know, players, specific
1:37:33
matchup, specific schematic piece. Is there something you like, something you dislike,
1:37:36
question, something you hate, something you're nervous about, anything and everything
1:37:40
you got, start to put it up into the live chat. I start
1:37:42
a bunch before we or as we started to go throughout the episodes, so
1:37:47
we started to bring those up as well. Oh good comment here from in
1:37:50
regards to that potential touchdown that was called back to the Tony offside, Pete
1:37:55
saying, yeah, I was glad they scored with time left in all of
1:37:57
our time off. That was the thing I couldn't remember. I thought that
1:38:00
the bills had timeouts left. I couldn't remember how many, but I just
1:38:02
remember being very much like, Okay, they scored, we got time in
1:38:06
timeouts. Let's go do it. Plenty of time, go ahead and make
1:38:09
it happen. Like I thought, there was enough time plus the timeouts,
1:38:12
which is why it's not like they did that play with twenty seconds left and
1:38:15
no timeouts and you're like, oh, we need a touchdown. We're screwed.
1:38:18
This is over. So very fair point, very fair point. As
1:38:21
you folks start to potentially put things into the chat, as I start to
1:38:26
see a couple coming through all ready I'm going to bring up the banner for
1:38:30
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The online menu can be found in the episode show notes, whether here
1:39:19
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1:39:28
This comment here from this Chiefs fan who says, twenty seconds is enough time.
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Then he puts the smiley face. How dare you? How dare you?
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I'm not gonna lie though, as I said that, I thought of
1:39:36
that back my hond I was like, wow, it was twenty seconds enough,
1:39:39
but fair enough. All right, let's grab some questions. I went
1:39:42
back and start a bunch from starting from the beginning. This first question from
1:39:45
Buff Everett saying, will the Bills backup linebackers be able to prevent Mahomes from
1:39:50
throwing down the middle? You know, that question tied in right with one
1:39:55
of Matt's main points for this matchup and a little bit of what I talked
1:39:57
about as well. It's a big concern for me. The specter's injury,
1:40:01
you know, might not be too bad. He's able to play, but
1:40:04
that again, that's the point you're looking at like you're into the world of
1:40:09
hoping Tyrel Dodson is healthy enough to start for this game, which, and
1:40:13
I want to say this is non disrespectfully as possible, because I think Tyrel
1:40:15
Dotson has played well above anyone's expectations for him this year. But he's been
1:40:20
very strong coming forward against the run. He still has some issues where you
1:40:24
know he's fitting into the wrong gap or undercutting or overshooting a bit too much
1:40:28
or getting to the same gap with someone else, and some runs are happened.
1:40:30
But on the whole, he's really been a good player for them at
1:40:33
that linebacker spot, especially considering who he's replacing, which is Matt Milano,
1:40:39
and we know what his limitations are in coverage. So you're sitting here almost
1:40:43
at a point being like, man, I hope Tyrel Dodts can come back
1:40:45
for this game. When you have that, you're in bad shape from a
1:40:48
coverage perspective. And then you know, I love what a j Klein did.
1:40:51
I'm gonna be talking about him a bunch of the film room tomorrow night,
1:40:55
given you know where he was this year in terms of his career and
1:40:59
as a person in just basically, like Josh said, calming off the couch
1:41:01
and just stepping in and playing big minutes from the couch of the Green Dot.
1:41:05
Like Bruce Nolan said on Twitter in response to one of my tweets like
1:41:09
what Client did was tremendous. Dorian Williams made some plays, But I am
1:41:13
concerned about the backup linebackers in the middle. I think I don't think they'll
1:41:16
be able to prevent Mahomes from throwing down the middle. I think you're just
1:41:20
trying to mitigate how effective he can be in that area. I think it's
1:41:26
going to be an area where the Chiefs smell blood or see blood and they're
1:41:29
going to attack. It just going to be a matter of how well the
1:41:30
Bills can stem the tide in the middle of the field, because no matter
1:41:33
what you're looking at, they're going to be playing with backups. It's just
1:41:35
how far down the depth chart are you going to be playing with. Which
1:41:40
is a little concerning question here from Noah who says more play action. I
1:41:44
would like more play action. I talked about it as the episode went on
1:41:46
a little bit before you asked this question early on, Noah, But yeah,
1:41:49
I would like more play action from the Bills, just on the whole
1:41:54
on the year. Let's see what are their numbers here from a regular season
1:42:00
per perspective. Per sis, the Buffalo Bills play action numbers as I find
1:42:05
it here in my notes sixteen percent play action rate in the regular season on
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the year, which was fourteenth in the NFL, so kind of middle of
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the table, but against sixteen percent, I would like that percentage to be
1:42:18
more. Granted, that doesn't factor in RPOs. RPOs as their own category.
1:42:25
The Bills had a nineteen percent RPO usage on the year, which was
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third, so if you're looking at RPOs and play action, that's thirty five
1:42:31
percent combined. But I would like more just straight up play action, especially
1:42:34
out of the under center looks, which we've talked about at nauseum this year,
1:42:40
but especially with the Bills struggling to create explosives, especially downfield. Give
1:42:45
me some under center play action with some sale concepts and some leveling and flooding
1:42:48
to the field. Give Josh Allen multiple options. I'd love to move the
1:42:51
pocket in this game as well, so give me some bootlegs that ties into
1:42:55
the play action piece as well. With how successful the Bill's run game is,
1:43:00
I do think it's not criminal, but I do think there should be
1:43:02
even more play action kind of tuned up because it just fits so well,
1:43:05
especially with them when they get their downhill run game. Going. It just
1:43:09
fits well and allows you to kind of mesh and marry those two things coming
1:43:15
here from Adam, My question, do you expect the Bills to play more
1:43:17
man or zone? Considering the injuries on the defensive side. I do expect
1:43:21
more man in this game, especially given how impacted they are at the second
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level. I expect more press, more man, more cover one and trying
1:43:32
to rob stuff, buzzing a safety down, spinning a safety down, trying
1:43:35
to take away the middle of the field with a safety from the top,
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kind of intrusting hide and or ployer to support the middle of the field and
1:43:44
those depth players at the second level. So I do expect more man coverage
1:43:47
in this game. I just think it's going to be even though I trust
1:43:49
McDermott and Bobby Babbage and the whole crew to really coach up everybody and get
1:43:55
them ready from the zone coverage perspective, That's a tall task and a tough
1:43:59
ask of these depth guys to step in this week on a short week and
1:44:02
get prepped from his own coverage standpoint to get ready to take on the Chiefs.
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That's a hard ask question here, do you still believe that von Miller
1:44:11
can play a decisive role in this defense. He has experienced playing in three
1:44:14
four defenses or in three to four defenses. Do you think he can help
1:44:16
against these heavy personnel from the Chiefs. Vaughn's flashed a little bit. I
1:44:23
put out two clips of his really good pass rushers towards the end of the
1:44:27
game against the Steelers, the one dip around the arc and the spin move
1:44:30
on the inside where a bunch of people were like, oh, we two
1:44:31
were to touch the quarterback. That rep sucks ha ha ha. I think
1:44:33
he threw. He thought that Mason Rudolph through the ball, which is why
1:44:36
he just tagged him instead of taking him down. But also I didn't really
1:44:40
care about that. I cared about what led up up to the pressure,
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which was the knee, and how it looked from an athleticism standpoint, a
1:44:46
fluidity standpoint, a juice standpoint. On that spin move to create that pressure,
1:44:51
he looked a bit more like himself in that fourth quarter against the Steelers.
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I don't believe at this point though, that he can play just I
1:45:00
was very encouraged by those two reps against the Steelers, but I was mainly
1:45:02
encouraged because we just haven't seen any types of flashes to that level. We've
1:45:08
seen little, you know, bits and rumblings here and there from him when
1:45:13
he started to get going as the season's going on, but nothing as significant
1:45:15
as we did against the Steelers. He is good enough against the run,
1:45:20
I don't know how much of a factory's going to be really for anything the
1:45:24
run in the past. I think he's a huge wild card. I think
1:45:27
realistically, I think you could see this be a game where von Miller has
1:45:30
two sacks and everybody's like, oh man, he's back, this is awesome.
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I also think he could again be fourth in the defensive end rotation or
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fifth, and you're still wishing and hoping and trying to find something to hang
1:45:41
your hat on for him. I think he's a huge question mark. You're
1:45:45
not going to know one way or the other. If I had, if
1:45:46
I had to bet, I would say he'd be more non factor than factor.
1:45:50
But I am potentially encouraged because of those two reps I saw against the
1:45:55
Steelers. Granted, it's a small sample size question here. What injuries do
1:46:01
you think will affect us the most? Ooh boy, Torel Bernard, probably
1:46:10
Christian Benford's up there too. Benford has had a really strong year as CB
1:46:15
two for this team. The physicality, the plays on the ball, the
1:46:17
intelligence. He's had a couple of really good reps where his ball skills this
1:46:21
year, both in terms of PBUs down the field and you know, reading
1:46:26
receivers hands and punching through to knock the ball out and generated in completion all
1:46:30
the way to the peanut punches and the strips and being able to get the
1:46:33
ball out that way. He's had such a nose for the ball this year.
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But aside from that, his coverage, leverage and his spatial awareness has
1:46:45
been up this year. And then you add in the size and the frame
1:46:46
of the physicality and what he lets you do. I think Christian Benford will
1:46:49
be a big one if he's not able to go. But Terrel Bernard is
1:46:54
probably the biggest. He wears that green dot. He does such a good
1:46:58
job communicating. I talk about it every week. Is that air traffic controller
1:47:00
in the middle of the field, getting everybody ready, getting everybody adjusted.
1:47:04
It's not just you know, Hide or Poyer calling down to him, or
1:47:08
Taron Johnson calling down to Bernard. It's Bernard dictating to them. It's him
1:47:13
barking out orders to the defense and communicating and letting them know what to watch
1:47:16
out for. And he's a good player from an actual on field physical perspective,
1:47:20
but he does so much from the neck up for this Bill's defense that
1:47:26
I think Torell Bernard if he is unable to go, which I don't think
1:47:29
he's going to be able to. I don't think he's done for the year,
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but I think he's probably gonna be unable to go for this game.
1:47:34
I think that injury. And again, maybe the ankle sprain isn't too bad.
1:47:39
The MRI is good to go and he'll sit in a boot for the
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week and be good to go come Sunday. But I think the Bernard injury,
1:47:45
even if he's playing, he's not one hundred percent. I think that
1:47:46
injury will affect us the most, whether he's on the field or off the
1:47:49
field. And then Benford is a close number two right behind that. Steve
1:47:57
saying why do the Bills cut four net, I'm assuming it's a roster move
1:48:00
to bring somebody else in punter piece, maybe a linebacker, priece. You
1:48:03
can bring in free agents in the postseason, so We'll see what potentially happens
1:48:10
there. I'm guessing that it was made for a roster move, and I
1:48:14
really think it was just coming down to I don't think Fournette was shown too
1:48:16
much. I know the playoff Lenny jokes are there and people are talking about
1:48:18
him. I didn't think he looked too great when he was in there.
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I don't think he looked awful. I can think you could make a conversation
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of who's more valuable him or Latavious Murray who would rather have been there?
1:48:29
But I think the clear one too is James Cook and Ty Johnson. And
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then I trust Latavious Murray in pass pro short yardage work and even out in
1:48:39
the route distribution as a pass catcher like he's shown this year. I just
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don't think there was, you know, enough enough on field tape evidence to
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warrant him staying above another running back and or, you know, for another
1:48:50
roster spot that they needed to make. Oh, Matt saying, with all
1:48:57
the injuries on defense, who do you have the most confident and to step
1:49:00
up in a larger role. Oh boy, I'm I'm assuming you mean from
1:49:04
the guys who are still playing. I'm gonna stick on the defensive line.
1:49:09
I'm gonna say Ed Oliver and Greg Russell. Especially at Oliver, I'm gonna
1:49:13
trust him to take his game to another level, and he's gonna have a
1:49:15
tough one this week, you know, going up against Trey Smith and Joe
1:49:17
Toney and Creed Humphrey. That's a really strong interior for the Chiefs line.
1:49:23
Rousseau has a better opportunity against the Chiefs tackles. Out of eighty seven qualifying
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tackles in twenty twenty three, Kansas City starting offensive tackles, Jowan Taylor and
1:49:33
Donovan Smith were both kind of middle of the pack when it came to pass
1:49:35
blocking efficiency. Jowan Taylor was tied for forty third and Donovan Smith was fifty
1:49:41
seven, so closer to the bottom tier. I think there is opportunity to
1:49:44
be had against the bookends for the Chiefs. So I think Russeau could step
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up, Oliver can step up. I think will Suell Douglas plays a big
1:49:53
role in this game, whether he's matched up on Kelsey the whole time or
1:49:56
just in general. His nose for the ball, his headiness, his football
1:49:59
IQ, and then the bite and the urgency he plays with Rasoul Douglas is
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a dog in every sense of the word. I trust him to step up.
1:50:08
If you're talking about with the injuries on defense, who do I have
1:50:11
the most confidence in to step up and fill some shoes? Call me crazy,
1:50:15
I'm gonna say Ajklin just because he's so smart, I am so comfortable
1:50:20
in this defense. I know he's gonna have his limitations. I don't want
1:50:23
to see him in space. I don't want to see him matched up against
1:50:25
Travis Kelcey. But I trust Ajklin to come forward and fit the run and
1:50:30
meet Isaiah Pachecko in the hole and sit him down and that man, that's
1:50:32
gonna be a fun battle. If Clin plays like with how hard Pacheco runs,
1:50:38
that's you know, hammer meet and hammer in the hole with Isaiah Pachecko
1:50:42
and Ajklin. I do have confidence Incline. Again, for a dude to
1:50:45
just come off the couch and immediately take that green dot and again he's barking
1:50:50
out calls and communication and adjustments. I do have confidence in Cline just because
1:50:56
of his experience, his familiarity with the defense and what he's done before.
1:51:00
For obviously, there are the athletic limitations and coverage questions you're gonna have with
1:51:02
him. But of all the people who would have to step up for somebody
1:51:06
being out, that would be that piece. And as Pete says here,
1:51:10
clin played ary Adminburge, he's really lacking speed. Yeah, he has for
1:51:13
the past several years, even during that COVID year when he had to step
1:51:15
in for Edmonds. There was a reason they were just basically blitzing him left
1:51:19
and right, and it was because they didn't want him in coverage. And
1:51:23
he's still good coming forward. He's even more limited now than he was then.
1:51:27
But that's the kind of girl that you're dancing with at this point.
1:51:30
Given the injuries. It's well, it's a concern, but it is what
1:51:35
it is. Yeah, I don't want to have to roll with aj Klein,
1:51:39
but you could do worse. You also could do better. It's a
1:51:42
scary situation. I don't love it overall, but at least at the end
1:51:45
of the day, you know he can get the defense set and get the
1:51:47
defense right and try and put himself and others into good position, even though
1:51:53
he is lacking from an athletic standpoint. All. This is a nice comment
1:51:57
here from the Chiefs fan who said Chiefs saying here, but great show.
1:52:00
I'm sure it'll be a great game. Much respect and Bills fans. That
1:52:01
was awesome that chief fan was here for the majority of the episode. It
1:52:04
wasn't really too much trollman, it was just a nice conversation back and forth.
1:52:06
I appreciate you being here and the kind words. That's awesome. Thank
1:52:10
you very much. Oh Chris Key says, do you think Bean brings in
1:52:14
a Riza or Matt Hawk to punt with four Nett cut? It'll depend on
1:52:17
the injury. I know Martin punted after I didn't really follow up with how
1:52:21
dinged up he might be. I don't think a Riza at all. I
1:52:26
don't even know if Ariza would want to come back to the Bills. I
1:52:28
don't know if they would want him. I think you're just opening up can
1:52:30
of worms with that Hawk potentially. I do think they look at punters this
1:52:34
week. They just have to. I think four Nett being cut is a
1:52:39
sign you're either grabbing a punter or a linebacker or doing some kind of movement
1:52:43
those injury laiden positions. And that's even too. Like we talked about the
1:52:45
injuries like that's how down the Bills are with injuries, like the friggin' punter,
1:52:49
Like you're punter got hurt, you know, like the chips are just
1:52:54
not falling in your favor when your friggin' punter pulls up with a hammy like,
1:52:59
oh, that's that's very busy for the Bills punter to be hurt and
1:53:01
for them to need a hunter in this game, Spin saying, I think
1:53:05
this game comes down to how well Allen detects the blitzes and his answers to
1:53:10
the blitzes that will determine this game. That's fair. His pre snap recognition
1:53:14
in pre to post snap diagnosis has been inconsistent, to be kind this year.
1:53:20
I think that's a huge piece Spags's ability to disguise coverages bring blitzeres from
1:53:26
areas that Alan isn't thinking. Can they properly id who the mic is?
1:53:30
Are they slide in protection? Are they doing man? Whatever happens, I
1:53:34
think this is a very mentally challenging game for Josh Allen against Steve Spagnolo in
1:53:39
this Chiefs defense, Wyot says, how have you thought about the pressure generated
1:53:44
from the Buffalo d line, specifically the edges Case's offensive tackles been real shaky
1:53:48
at times. Yeah, I know you typed this earlier before I said it
1:53:50
a minute ago, but yeah, I mentioned the kind of the past blocking
1:53:54
efficiency. Juwan Taylor and Donovan Smith haven't been great. When Donovan Smith was
1:53:58
out, they brought in Wanya Morris, rookie from Oklahoma. He struggled mightily.
1:54:03
I've been alright with the pressure generated from the front. I think you
1:54:06
could get more consistent pressure from the front four. I think Leonard this is
1:54:11
just me guessing or assuming or surmising based off of watching the games, but
1:54:15
I think Leonard Floyd's a little banged up. I see him get up a
1:54:17
little slow at times and go to the sideline and try and work some things
1:54:20
out. But I would like more consistent pressure off the edges, and I
1:54:24
think this could be a big game for Leonard Floyd. For Gregory Rousseau and
1:54:28
Oliver has been a monster all year, he has a tougher task given the
1:54:31
strength of the Chiefs O line on the interior. They've got three high quality
1:54:34
dudes, like I mentioned earlier with Tony Humphrey and Smith. So if this
1:54:39
O line can be got, I do think it is with those tackles.
1:54:43
So I've been okay with the pressure generator from the Bills d line, but
1:54:45
I think this is a game where they need to step it up. You
1:54:47
need consistent pressure generated from Rousseau and Floyd and Epanessa and vond Miller, and
1:54:53
I think it can be had. So this is a game where I think
1:54:56
the edge presence needs to step up. I'll be again, you have to
1:54:59
be careful because you can can't let Mahomes break contain, which is what makes
1:55:01
it a little difficult at times. And Mahomes is still good. He was
1:55:05
tied with Josh Allen this year in terms of percentage of pressures converted to sacks,
1:55:10
so second lowest in the league. So Mahomes is still good at doing
1:55:12
that or getting the ball out and try and dump it down or making plays
1:55:15
with his arm with it. So it's tough, but yeah, I think
1:55:19
the Edges need to have a big game in this one, given the vulnerability
1:55:23
for them. For the chiefs oh Steve Noble saying I'd like to see them
1:55:27
give Brett Kern a call if Martin cannot go fair enough, Drew saying the
1:55:31
case Casey defense is a lot tougher than the Steelers. There will be mistakes
1:55:34
by Allen. He has to win with the big plays, and that's kind
1:55:38
of been what they've been doing down on the stretch. Like their EPA from
1:55:40
a passing perspective or drop back perspective has been up, but their success rate
1:55:45
has not been. So success rate measures the percent of plays in which you're
1:55:47
generating positive EPA, whereas drop back EPA is just how much EPA you're generating.
1:55:55
Their success rate has been down because you are seeing that inconsistently. There's
1:55:59
times where this pass offense just kind of goes dormant to be nice to say
1:56:02
a night nice way, or feels sluggish, and then they bust off like
1:56:05
a thirty yard pass or a forty yard pass or a twenty five yard catch
1:56:10
and run. So yeah, there are those chunk plays to be had.
1:56:12
We'll see. We will see Spence as soon as our training department and facilities
1:56:19
gets propped up. The injuries started to plague the Bills. Yeah, it
1:56:23
just seems like, I mean, injuries happen to everyone. But it's funny
1:56:27
in an annoying, stupid way, how the injuries have been this year.
1:56:34
What oh, Joe coming in saying Snead is overrated, gets away with a
1:56:40
lot of PI in case. Luckily he won't have that advantage in our house.
1:56:47
Nikki coming in and saying, I think sarn Neil plays on Kelsey.
1:56:50
I don't know if Saran Neil is coming into this game potentially. I mean
1:56:57
again, it's they did that last ye, used him in some dime looks
1:57:01
along with that odd mirror package where they're using that three man rush and an
1:57:04
aggressive spy. And that aggressive spy was Matt Milano. Obviously different this time
1:57:09
around, given the fact that there is no Milano and von Miller was that
1:57:13
main habit creator upfront, and he is not what he was last year in
1:57:15
that game against Kansas City. But yeah, I wonder what they do with
1:57:21
Kelsey, my solution or my idea, whoever it is. You're just beating
1:57:27
the hell out of Travis Kelsey. He's got a lot of miles on the
1:57:29
tires. He's a little older to this point. Again, I know he
1:57:31
hasn't been the Travis Kelcey of old, but he's still very, very very
1:57:34
dangerous. I'm beating him up on every single play. If he is going
1:57:40
to make a catch. It's because it's him fighting through being punched and grabbed
1:57:44
and kicked and scratched and clawed. I am doing anything and everything that is
1:57:47
legal under the sun, and maybe even some illegal stuff too, And I
1:57:50
am just jamming him in the ribs, in the chest, and the arm,
1:57:54
in the shoulders, anything and everything. Like I am trying to make
1:57:57
him hurt on every single rep this game. So by the time it gets
1:58:00
to the fourth quarter and it's cold and windy or whatever is going on,
1:58:06
he slows down just a little bit, and you know, maybe he gets
1:58:10
a little more of the drop seas because he's getting beat up a bunch.
1:58:12
I'm just trying to make him live in a very difficult way. And I
1:58:15
would do that with Rasul Douglas. His length, his physicality, how he
1:58:18
plays the game, his aggressiveness, the intensity in which he plays, and
1:58:21
he's a good cover dude. And I think his size and framan stature matches
1:58:27
up well with Travis kelcey or as well as one can match up with Travis
1:58:30
kelce It's so hard to cover him. I said it for years, even
1:58:33
when everybody was knocking Milano like, oh mlonal suck, because he can't cover
1:58:36
Travis Kelce And I was always a cool show me someone who can cover Travis
1:58:40
kelce Show me someone who shuts down Travis kelce because even the past couple of
1:58:44
years, when Jalen Ramsey was at his height, the Rams would put Ramsey
1:58:49
no pun intended, would put Ramsey on Kelsey, and Kelsey would cook Ramsey
1:58:54
like he's a hard out again, different kind of player this year. But
1:58:58
I'm trying to use Rasoul Douglas. I don't trust surround Neil in coverage.
1:59:00
I know he's athletic and strong, and they've used him in the past.
1:59:04
Maybe they will in this game like they did a little bit last year in
1:59:06
the regular season. But I'm sticking with the dudes that are out there already
1:59:11
and I'm putting I'm putting Rasul Douglas on Kelsey and I'm just beating the hell
1:59:15
out of Travis Kelcey on every single rep as much as I can. And
1:59:17
that's for whoever is on the defense and on Travis Kelcey. I really hope
1:59:26
Christian Benford can go because of his size and frame and physicality. And then
1:59:29
I'm doing the same thing and I'm probably asking tarrying to do the same thing.
1:59:30
And if Kelsey's on the line, I'm beating the hell out of them
1:59:32
with an edge or linebacker or whoever. Like he has to get rerouted and
1:59:38
hit on every single snap, every single play. You are beating the hell
1:59:41
out of Travis Kelsey. That is what you gotta do. And I would
1:59:43
put Douglas on him. Maybe they go with Sarron Neil again played a little
1:59:46
last year. But we'll see, We'll see, we'll see, we will
1:59:48
see. Yeah, it's going to be It's gonna be a tough game and
1:59:55
an exciting one. I think there are a lot of storylines in this game,
2:00:02
both on and off the field, for Bill's first Chiefs obviously, and
2:00:05
you know, we talked about several of them with Matt earlier in the episode,
2:00:09
talk about some of them here with the chat and everybody here, like,
2:00:13
I don't think we even need to get into them too much. Like
2:00:15
Bills fans know what has happened between the Bills and Chiefs these past several years.
2:00:19
Chiefs fans know the same thing. The Chiefs players know it in the
2:00:23
Chiefs organization. The Bills players in Bill's organization knows it and I know there's
2:00:27
a healthy respect between the two teams, but these teams don't like each other.
2:00:30
And now this game, finally, finally, we get a playoff game
2:00:36
in Buffalo between Bills and Chiefs, and this is your opportunity to slay the
2:00:41
dragon. And it's a little different than going into the dragon's house and slaying
2:00:44
them there in his castle, at his spot or wherever he lives. But
2:00:48
it's still an opportunity to get this monkey off your back, and it's a
2:00:51
real one I said earlier in the episode, Like the regular season wins first
2:00:57
Kansas City are important from a playoff seeding person effective right, But the regular
2:01:01
season wins against Kansas City don't make me think anything towards the playoffs. The
2:01:04
Bills could have beaten the Chiefs fifty to nothing in the regular season and it
2:01:09
wouldn't make me feel any better about a playoff matchup agains Kansas City. It
2:01:12
is like I said earlier, it is a different animal, a different beast
2:01:15
come playoff time for anyone, but especially the Kansas City Chiefs given Andy Reid
2:01:21
and Steve Spagnolo and how they're able to just tweak things and fine tune things
2:01:26
and turn different dials and change who they are a little bit come playoff time
2:01:29
and really expose opponents weaknesses and at attack attack, it's hard to eliminate them.
2:01:35
Man, this is and I know they're not the same offense that they
2:01:38
were in the past couple of years. And no, I don't think it's
2:01:41
just a Tyreek Hill thing because they bawled out last year and without him,
2:01:44
But I know they've had all the drop seats this year and they've struggled.
2:01:47
That championship caliber team is still in there. And even though the offensive struggled,
2:01:51
they still have one of the best defenses in the NFL this year.
2:01:54
This game is going to be a fight in every way, shape and form.
2:01:57
Both teams know it. It's nice to finally have it beat in Buffalo
2:02:00
instead of having to go to Arrowhead every friggin time the Bills have to play
2:02:03
the Chiefs. But this is going to be a fight, and I would
2:02:08
always it's nice to have the storybook ending type of thing, and for a
2:02:12
Bill Super Bowl to go through. To have them go through Kansas City,
2:02:15
not the actual place, but to go through the team, I think is
2:02:18
a really nice little piece. I would much rather prefer the easiest path.
2:02:24
Give me all the bad teams that exist in the playoffs, if they do
2:02:28
exist, give me that easy road to the playoffs. But you know,
2:02:31
this is very it does feel very poetic and potentially storybook for the Bills to
2:02:34
potentially exercise some demons and get that monkey off their back with the Chiefs.
2:02:39
And it does. It does fit and seem fitting that they would get that
2:02:44
opportunity to be Kansas City and this time it's in Buffalo. It's it's very
2:02:47
fitting again from a storyline and a drama perspective. But man, it is.
2:02:53
Oh. I am so nervous for this game and so anxious. I'm
2:02:57
not gonna be able to focus all week. Question here from Joey Camp this
2:03:00
random question, but do you think the Eagles should fire Sirianni No. I
2:03:04
think a lot of the struggles for their offense came to the injuries that Hurts
2:03:09
had. I do think they got away from running the ball too much,
2:03:11
which I found odd given how strong their run game was. And really they
2:03:16
were just not getting too much of an Egles conversation, but they were relying
2:03:18
on like three or four concepts that they were able to just swing the pendulum
2:03:23
with at the right times and in the right moments this year that kind of
2:03:26
backfired on them a little bit. But I think the defense was much more
2:03:30
of a concern, which again can fall on Sirianni because he is the head
2:03:32
coach and he makes those decisions. But they had some injuries and some innopportunity
2:03:38
positions in places and pieces, and given what they did last year, I
2:03:42
know this collapse was significant, but I don't think they should fire Siriani.
2:03:45
I think at the very least, you'd gi him next year, see if
2:03:47
he can course correct for some things. You go from there. They still
2:03:50
have a good roster, they still have a good team. We'll see what
2:03:53
happens, but I don't think the Eagle should fire him at this point,
2:03:55
although again, you are extremely disappointed if you're an Eagles player, if you're
2:03:59
Siriani, if you're an Eagle fan, given how the train just went so
2:04:01
dramatically and drastically off of the tracks, and want to switch the banner now
2:04:08
it's two as folks, because we're can start to wind down here on this
2:04:10
episode. Before anyone leaves, Please please thank you, if you have not
2:04:13
already, please drop a like on this video. I say it all the
2:04:15
time. Likes are the lifeblood of these live streams in terms of impacting the
2:04:19
algorithm and anything and everything they do. So if you haven't already, please
2:04:23
drop Alke on this video before you leave here. It's extremely important towards helping
2:04:28
myself in the entire team to track and trend in front of more eyes and
2:04:30
ears. So please, please, please, and thank you. If you
2:04:32
have not already drop Alike on this video, I would greatly appreciate it,
2:04:36
as with the whole team. As with the whole team. Oh awesome comming
2:04:40
here again from the Chiefs fan saying you need more than twenty seven thousand subs.
2:04:44
Great podcast and the chat was very respectful. I've been on some other
2:04:46
Bills in Chiefs podcasts where the chat was just toxic. That's awesome. Appreciate
2:04:50
the kind words to the show and the brand, and yeah, the live
2:04:54
chat. Here. We have a really good core, a group of people
2:04:56
that consistently return and comment. I also try to cultivate that as much as
2:05:00
I can here on the show. A lot of thought provoking questions and good
2:05:03
back and forth. There's not too much toxicity and negativity. I like to
2:05:06
think that the good energy and performance in the chat is an extension of the
2:05:12
show itself, So thank you very much for that. That's awesome. I
2:05:15
appreciate the kind words for the chat and for the brand and the show and
2:05:17
the channel. Thank you very much for being here. You had a bunch
2:05:19
of good comments and kind words for myself and the team. So appreciate the
2:05:24
hell out of you. Drop a leg on this video before you go,
2:05:25
if you would be so kind. That was awesome, and so everyone else.
2:05:28
Yeah, please drop alke on this video here on YouTube. It goes
2:05:30
a long way. If you're listening on one of the podcasting apps and or
2:05:33
platforms, that's cool too. Please rate and review and subscribe to Disguis coverage
2:05:39
wherever you are listening. Subscribe to Disguy's coverage here. The playlists turn on
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notifications. Here on YouTube, subscribe to the Cover One channel as a whole.
2:05:46
We've got you covered every single day of the week with a variety of
2:05:48
bills content and football content. Depending on what you're looking for, what level
2:05:53
of depth you are looking for, we have you covered here with a multitude
2:05:57
of shows and channels and platforms and all that kind of stuff. Word of
2:06:00
mouth is also awesome too. Tell your family and friends and loved ones about
2:06:04
how awesome this show is. If you thought the show was terrible, that's
2:06:09
fine. Tell your enemies about the show and try and make them watch it
2:06:12
to ruin their day, because you never know, maybe they'll like it.
2:06:14
Any and every ounce of support is greatly appreciated, however it comes, whenever
2:06:17
form or fashion it comes in. Again, we still have a really high
2:06:21
live viewer account here in the chat. It'd be awesome if the likes reflected
2:06:26
that here on YouTube. Please please, please, and then you drop a
2:06:29
like lot before you go. If you're also watching later and you're not watching
2:06:31
live, drop a like, then that's greatly appreciated. Too. Big game
2:06:36
this week, I know nobody thought of that. I don't know if anybody
2:06:40
knows this is a big game. Playoffs are big games. And then I
2:06:44
don't know if anybody knows that the playoffs matter. I don't know if anybody
2:06:46
knows the history of the Bills and the Chiefs. But just in case you
2:06:48
didn't, I thought i'd tell you this is a big game. Streambly nervous
2:06:53
and worried. Who appreciate you saying how the blueberry count was right as always.
2:06:57
I love that comment every time you say, I appreciate the hell out
2:06:59
of you for that big game, big moment, big week, but fun,
2:07:02
exciting times again. An opportunity for the Bills to slay the dragon in
2:07:05
their house and potentially get one step further to potentially going to the super Bowl,
2:07:12
and they'll know kind of where their cards fall based on what happens earlier
2:07:15
in the weekend, potentially hosting an AFC championship game against the Houston Texans.
2:07:21
If the Texans beat the Ravens, either the Chiefs or Bills will host that
2:07:26
AFC title game. If the Ravens beat the Texans, CAC or the Bills
2:07:30
will be going to Baltimore. And that's a whole different beast with who the
2:07:32
Ravens are. Man a lot of fun possibilities and opportunities going forward if the
2:07:35
Bills win this game, but got to start here, take it one game
2:07:39
at a time. For anybody going to the game this week and against the
2:07:43
Chiefs, travel safe if you were driving from out of town, if you
2:07:45
were traveling from a couple hours away or multiple hours away, whatever you're doing.
2:07:49
If you live in Buffalo, say travels to you. As well,
2:07:51
have a safe and happy tailgate, and just in general, I hope you
2:07:56
and your family and friends and loved ones are all doing well and staying safe.
2:08:00
Be kind to one another, take care of one another. I appreciate
2:08:05
the kind words coming through in the chat from you, I Order and Nikki
2:08:07
saying hopefully it's not the last video this Bill's team can finally run the dang
2:08:11
ball. Well, this train won't stop here onto Sky's coverage even if the
2:08:13
Bills do lose, got you covered with prospect content and free agent contact.
2:08:18
This show will be a weekly show regardless of what happens with the Buffalo Bills
2:08:22
on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. But hopefully they pull out this win
2:08:26
and we get to keep talking about playoff football here on this show, but
2:08:30
until next Tuesday at nine pm Eastern that I'll do it for us here on
2:08:33
Sky's Coverage. Again, I hope you and your family and friends and loved
2:08:35
ones are all doing well and staying safe. Be kind of one another,
2:08:39
take care of one another. If you are going to the game, travel
2:08:41
safe, travel well, have a great time, be smart, responsible,
2:08:45
have fun. Make it tough for Kansas City. Scream your ass off whenever
2:08:48
the Chiefs offense is on the field. So that way, at the end
2:08:52
of the day Sunday or on Monday, you have no voice because you exhausted
2:08:54
it trying to yell and scream and curse at the Kansas City Chiefs. Tune
2:09:00
into the Cover One Film Room tomorrow Wednesday, January seventeenth, at seven pm
2:09:03
Eastern to join myself and Eric Turners. We break down a bunch of pieces
2:09:07
from the Bills playoff victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers and again Disgui's coverage. The
2:09:11
show here will be live again next Tuesday, nine pm Eastern. Until then,
2:09:16
who try and stay colm until Sunday at six point thirty and then wile
2:09:20
the hell out. Godspeed and as always, oh and again, thank it
2:09:24
everybody for everything. I know I've said it a bunch already, but thank
2:09:26
you very much for the kind words and the chat, the kind words from
2:09:28
Matt. Thank you very much to Matt Lane from the Casey Sports Network for
2:09:31
joining me as well anything and everything. I appreciate you folks more than you
2:09:37
know. As the season always starts to wind down, positively or negatively,
2:09:39
I always kind of take stock of everything and I'm just very thankful for all
2:09:43
the people that tune in and verything for the very thankful for this platform and
2:09:48
anything and everything. So thank you, folks. I'm stumbling over my words
2:09:50
because it's late and i'm tired. I'm going to bed, godspeed, and
2:09:52
as always, go bills.