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Inside The Data: What Does The Projections For Eagles Vs. Titans In Week 2? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, everyone. Welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the Birds. I'm Jeff Mosher. That's Sam Finkel, our data
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: and analytics expert. And this is a great new concept.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: We've got all year long, two editions of Inside the
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Data each week. One recaps the game. We already did that.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: The other one previews the game. And we will be previewing.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: And thank you for the intro music, Sam. Just playing.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: We will be previewing the Eagles week two game in
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Nashville against the Titans in from an analytics standpoint, a
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: data standpoint. There were some really interesting things that Sam
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: had in this data that we will discuss as we
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: match up these two teams. As always, Sam has some charts,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: so our YouTube viewers will be able to see them.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: But for our podcast listeners, we'll go through everything, what
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: certain things mean, what the numbers say, so that if
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: you're listening, you will not lose out on anything, I promise.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: So with that, Sam, Let's get started. Before I put
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the charts up, you know, I always ask you this,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: like while you were going through the data of both
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: teams and how they match up, is there anything that
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: really jumped out at you from an analytical standpoint?
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, something that's interesting is that, you know,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: both the Jets and the Titans were not expected to
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: be great teams. But it is interesting that the win
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: percentage basically started in favor of the Titans and then very, very,
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: very quickly went in the other direction.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean, the Jets and Titans were two
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: of the worst teams. And with that, I'm glad you
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: brought that up because I wanted to ask you about it.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: So we will right away bring up the Monte Carlo model.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: So this would be for Eagles versus the Titans, correct?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: But the chart does show the game against the Jets here.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: So the chart itself is the win percentage that actually
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: happened live during the Titans and Jets game.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, not like the heart monitor like we saw in Eagles-Commanders.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: This one's a little bit more, you know, obviously the
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Jets were like winning, winning, winning, and then pulled away
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: after a little bit.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Of a lull. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, it was definitely more
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: of a calm game if you were a Jets fan,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: I suppose. Yeah.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Well, I would think if you're a Jets fan, it
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: might have been the other way. Like, you've never seen
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: something like this. It's been a while since you've seen
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: something like this. And obviously, if you're a Titans fan,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: and we'll get into them in a second, it was
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit more of the same. I want to
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: talk about the Monte Carlo simulation that you have here. Explain,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: because we did this right before the year started. We
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: went through every single week, every single game, what the
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Monte Carlo simulation projection said for each matchup. So what
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: is it saying now about this one?
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so it essentially, in 657 of the 1,000
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: simulations that I ran, it had the Eagles winning this game.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: So that's where you get that 65.7% chance of winning.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: So about 600, yeah, 657 times. Does that mean, has
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: that changed, by the way, since the original one?
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: I have not changed anything with the model.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, so the model doesn't change. So if the Eagles
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: had lost to the Commanders, it would still be the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: same number from the preseason, or if the Titans had
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: beaten the Jets?
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: So I just, I didn't change the model at all.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: I probably can, as we're going through this in the future,
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: like I probably can update the model and see like this,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: because once it goes down one path, it becomes a
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: little bit more clear, you know, which way it goes.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, that's certainly something I can do
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: as we do it, update it.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: So this basically says that before the season started, the
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Eagles were predicted to beat the Titans 66% of the time.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: All right. Good stuff. I am fascinated by some of
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: your next-gen stat insights. Anything jump out to you? I'll
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: just throw it to you.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'll just go through it. But Jets
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: outgained the Titans by 172 yards. Not great if you
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: are part of the Titans organization or a fan of
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: the team. Right. But Cam Ward faced pressure on 42.1%
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: of the dropbacks, which was the second highest rate in
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: his career. The highest rate in his career was actually 50%,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: which if you remember, 50% was how much the Eagles
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: ended up pressuring Jaden Daniels. Yeah. But under pressure, Ward
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: only completed three out of 10 passes, 30% for 17 yards.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: When he had a clean pocket, though, he was 16
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: for 22 for 123 yards and a touchdown. So, I mean,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: it's kind of an obvious thing to say, but you
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: get him under pressure, you're in a pretty good spot.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Sure, sure.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: This one's really interesting. The Titans O-line allowed nine different
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Jets defenders to generate at least one pressure. And then
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: they allowed four quick pressures, which is just a pressure
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: in less than a second.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Right. Now the Jets blitzed at about a 31% rate
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: in this game, which is a little higher than Vic Fangio,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: who typically blitzes between 21 and 23%. especially when he's
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: still figuring things out.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: So I doubt Vic is going to get it up
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: to 30%. You never know though, because there are after
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: week one, Sam, he may feel the need if they
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: don't have Grenard playing or playing at full strength. And
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: you saw at times the Eagles edge rush their interior,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: not so much that, he may feel he needs to
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: dial it up a little bit more.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, totally possible. He may not even need to. I mean,
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: if they're going to keep allowing pressures at that rate,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, he may not even need to blitz, but
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: we'll see.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Well, yeah, I guess that's true. But I'm thinking if
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: he was under pressure, Cam Ward on 42% of his
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: dropbacks and the Jets blitzed at 30%, there's probably some
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: correlation there.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that is a great, great point for sure.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: All right. Really interesting stuff. Man, what a, what a,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: It was supposed to be all about the Brian Dable
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: debut and Cam Ward and the offense, and it's just
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: week one, so we won't make too big of a
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: deal of it. But I know the Titans were not
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: happy about that.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: Totally agreed. Totally agreed. And can't blame them.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: No, no, no. You wanted to see more. I mean, shoot,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Eagles fans aren't necessarily thrilled with how the offense looked
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: in Shannon Mannion's debut. And they won and scored at
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: least 20 points. So the Titans were really, really dry offensively.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Their offensive line is a problem, by the way. I
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: know they have their tackle. Well, they got Latham at tackle.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: He's a first-rounder. He's been heard. He's not always played great.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: And then Skronsky got an extension from them. But overall,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: they're not very good on the offensive line.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: No, they're not. So it'll be really interesting to see
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: how the Eagles' defensive line kind of takes advantage of
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: that opportunity. Right.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: All right. So, and by the way, that offensive line,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Eagles offensive line, that's already down a starter. So that's
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: a big, big topic going in.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Especially with Jeffrey Simmons comments.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: That's very interesting. I mean, honestly, I hope Jalen Hurts
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: plays quarterback.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm sure. All right. Eagles offense versus the
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Titans defense from an analytical standpoint, what stands out about,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: about the EPA for, you know, play pass and rush
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: for one versus the other.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so again, if your defense has a positive EPA,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: that is really bad, just to be clear. The good
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: defensive units have a negative EPA, and so their EPA
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: per play is higher than what the Eagles' EPA per
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: play generated last game. So they allowed a lot more points,
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: expected points added, than the Eagles actually produced. So my
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: guess is next week, that number for the entire per
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: play will be somewhere in the middle of that 0.01
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: and 0.13. Sure. Yeah.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: And for those listening, the Titans have a positive EPA
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: on everything defense per play is 0.13 per pass 0.34. Well,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I should say rush is neutral. It's 0.00. Although you
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: could definitely make an argument that the Jets did a
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: nice job running the ball to the edges. against the
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Titans defense.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. And I mean, again, I think all the
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: numbers will be somewhere in the middle. I don't think
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the Eagles will generate 0.34 EPA per pass, but I
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: certainly also don't expect them to be minus 0.06.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Their passing game, you would think would be a
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: lot better. I think it'll be interesting to see what
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: their EPA per rush is in this game. I think
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: we'll really get a good, it was 0.1, as you
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: mentioned against the commanders, which is how it's positive. So
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I guess that's good, but that also incorporates the Jalen
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Hurts scrambles.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: It does.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: I wonder if we can ever get just like EPA
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: per rush, non quarterback scrambles. I mean, you'd have to
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: almost do individuals.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Like what was, I would have to calculate it myself. Yeah.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: That's the only, only way to actually get that, which
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: theoretically we could do is just would have to, it
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: would take a lot of the prep time for sure,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: which is fine. It's not a problem. Right.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Right. Well, it doesn't NFL pro don't they have individual,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: like if you just went to Saquon Barclays, wouldn't it
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: have his EPA per run or is that not considered
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: an individual stat?
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Well, they have EPA per player.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Per player.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: But that incorporates everything.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: It does. Yeah. Yeah.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: All right. We can talk about that offline. We can move,
• 9:27
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• 12:45
  Speaker 1: How about being the ability to time to throw versus
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: time to pressure from the Titans defense compared to the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Eagles offense?
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, Hertz is usually in that negative category
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: just because he has the ability to extend plays. So,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess that is part of what they
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: try to do with that rhythm and timing is to
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: try to get him to throw the ball before he's
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: pressured and not have to extend it as much. But
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, they made the Titans made the Jets hold
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: the ball a little bit longer, which again, this negative 0.13
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: is not necessarily indicative of anything bad. Obviously not because
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: they won the game. It It just means that they
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: were getting pressure before the throw was, on average, they
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: were getting pressure before the throw was getting out.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: So Gino was making a couple of quick, couple of
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: throws under duress is basically what he said.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: Yes. Okay. And the fact that he did that and
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: still had 0.34 EPA per pass means he handled it
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: pretty well. Right. That's why you can't just look at
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: one stat. You have to kind of like see, you
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: have to look at a couple of stats and say
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: this stat plus this stat means this, essentially.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Very good. Pressure rate. Eagles offense gave up a pressure.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Is it they gave up a pressure rate of 36.4
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: against the Commanders? Is that right? And the Titans pressured
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: the Jets at a 33% rate.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Is that a high rate for a total defense? What
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: is considered a really good pressure rate for a defense?
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think for a defense, a really good pressure
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: rate is anything over like 30%. Okay.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: So, again, the Titans did generate some pressure. Geno did
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: a good job of getting rid of the ball. They
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: ran the ball well. But it is something to watch
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: with the Eagles having some of their interior offensive line
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: banged up right now. And, again, the Titans' best pass
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: rusher being an interior rusher.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but also you have to convert them into sacks. Yep.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: And the Titans and Eagles kind of both struggle. I mean,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: we'll get to the Eagles' defense eventually because the thing
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: is the commanders did convert them into sacks, right?
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: They got 10.7% of their 36.4% converting. And then the
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: Titans subsequently had 0% sack percentage on 33% pressure. So really,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, pressure is great, but you have to convert
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: it into sacks.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: For sure. And this will be an interesting one because
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: it's like Jalen Hurts is a quarterback who as good
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: as he is takes and as mobile as he is,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: does have a high sack percentage. And again, 10.7 in
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: game one, right. Which is a high percentage for a quarterback,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: I would imagine. And then the Titans did not, they
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: generated pressure, but did not get any sacks. So it's like,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: which one's going to give here in this matchup?
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: Well, again, I kind of almost want to retract what
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: I said. It's okay if it doesn't turn into sacks necessarily,
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: if you can get turnovers off of it or negative
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: plays or, you know, limits, get them off schedule. But
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: like sacks are king to some extent. I, I just
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: want to amend what I said a little bit because
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: there are other ways that pressure can be very advantageous
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: for a defense. Right.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: But I think your point is on because Jalen doesn't
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: throw a lot of interceptions. Jalen doesn't fumble a lot,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: but he does take a lot of hits and he
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: does take a lot of sacks. So I do think
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: for the Titans, getting pressure at a high rate may
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: not always do that. Other teams, maybe right for the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Titans who are really leaking the, secondary, I think it's
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: really important that they finish off those pressures and get sacks.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Exactly. Yeah, that's all. Contextually, that's a really good point
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: as well. Cool.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: What do you make of the separation at 2.8 for
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: the Eagles offense yards per separation and the Titans allowing 4.1?
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: It's almost like the Eagles didn't have a very high
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: number of it, but the Titans gave up a lot
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: of it.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's going to be really telling this week.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: I'd really, really like to see the Eagles number somewhere
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: in the mid to high threes. I feel really comfortable.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: We're at 3.5 for the average separation. I feel like
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: that would be indicative of a pretty good game for
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: the Eagles wide receiver core or receiving core. I guess
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: it doesn't have to just be wide receiver. Yeah.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So they were below average. If average is 3.5,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: they were at 2.8, but the Titans were at 4.1.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: So they were above average and allowing separation. They really
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: don't have a lot of talent corners. So it'll be
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: an opportunity to take advantage of for sure. We did
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: talk about the Eagles' offense and their run success at 40%. Again,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: that also counts the scrambles, right?
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: It does, yeah.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: So it's a little bit misleading. Now the Titans don't–
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the info wasn't available on that?
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: So it's really annoying. I hate that it does this,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: and I understand why they don't. NFL Pro doesn't keep
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: that statistic. And the main reason– for defense. And the
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: main reason they do that is because it is like
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: almost like a– it's counterintuitive, right? Because if I say
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: run success for a defense– What is that? The reason
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: they have the statistic, the reason they don't put it
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: is because they don't want people to interpret run success
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: as a defense, meaning that the defense was successful. So
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: to avoid that confusion, that statistic is not even available.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: But I still wanted to put it.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: I got it. That's why they have more things like
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: TFL or run stuff rate because that's a lot more telling.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Because it's hard to misinterpret the stuff rate, right? Because
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: it's pretty binary. Right. But when you put words like success,
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: who is the one that is successful? What is success?
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: It gets a little bit more complicated.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Sure. I think EPA per rush on defense. They do
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: do that though, right?
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: They do. Yeah.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: That makes a little more sense.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Because EPA is, you don't, well, you can score
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: points on defense, but you know what I mean? It's, it's,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit more intuitive than success. Just like
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: that label. Sure.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: And then just to finish off the offense, right, obviously
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: the Eagles, we talked about how they were stuffed at
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: a really high rate for them, didn't have as much
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: success as they wanted, and faced a ton of light
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: boxes and still didn't really generate a lot in the
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: run game. Well, the Titans, you can see they did not.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: They had light boxes also, but they didn't have as
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: much success against the run.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: Exactly.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: They didn't stuff very many runs, I should say.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: I knew what you meant, and the thing is, like,
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: I expect the Eagles stuff rate to probably be in between.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: Most of the numbers are going to be in between
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: these numbers. Yeah.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I would also anticipate the Titans stacking the box at
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: a higher than 18% rate after.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: Also true.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I believe that when Robert Sala was head coach
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: of the jets, they were, they did a lot of that.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: They put a lot of guys in the box against
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Joe and they won that game. If you remember the
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: jets beat the, uh, Meet the Eagles a couple of
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: years ago when Salah was head coach.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: I remember because the Eagles had like an undefeated record
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: against the Jets and then they squandered that. But it
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: was very interesting that even this long in the history
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: of the sport of football, there are still teams that
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: have undefeated record against each other. But I guess it
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: makes sense when you're opposite conference. and don't play each
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: other that much. Right. Right.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: All right. Eagles defense versus the Titans offense. Now repeat
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: what you said about defensive EPA.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: So here's the thing. If you took the Titans offense
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: and you put those statistics on the defense, it would
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: be great. I mean, negative EPA is really, really bad
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: for an offense. Negative EPA is really, really good for
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: a defense. Right.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: So the Eagles are positive or negative. I mean, even
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: their positives are very low. They're close to negative. Zero
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: EPA per play on defense,. 04 per pass, and minus.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: 05 per rush. So good job by the Eagles defense.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Titans offense? Minuses all across the board in play and pass, 0.17, 0.29.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: And then a positive in the rush, which is 0.11.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: So I ran the ball a little bit better than
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: the box score might have suggested.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. And I wonder, I don't remember if they scrambled,
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: if Cam Ward scrambled that much.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I thought he, I think he's not much
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: of a scrambler, but I think in this game he did,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: I believe he did have to get out of jail
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: and get out, get out of Dodge.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: What's whatever the, I know.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Get out of Dodge very quickly with some of
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: those blitzes that the jets Aaron Glenn was cooking up.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah. He had four scrambles for 21 yards. Yeah.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: For him, that that's probably a decent game. Cause he
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: doesn't really look to run that.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: Much compared to Jalen's seven for 46. So exactly. But yeah,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: that's I mean, that factors in the reason why I
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: wanted to bring it up is because it does factor
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: into that rush statistic. Right.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Both offenses were I don't know how you would view it.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Titans had far less time to throw,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: but got rid of the ball. A lot quicker, right?
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I would say the Eagles defense did a really
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: good job of making the throws muddy by getting pressure.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: And the Titans, you know, Cam Ward was able to
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: get the ball out while pressured pretty quickly, at least
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: quicker than Daniels got the ball out.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Week one.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Right. What's a good, again, what is a good quarterback
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: pressure rate for a team, for a defense?
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: Like I said, 30% is pretty fair. That's a pretty
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: good indicator, I'd say.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: So 50% on the Eagles shows that they were doing
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: a really good job, at least from the edge, getting
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Jalen Daniels off his mark, whereas the Titans being pressured
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: 41% of the time, meaning they were pressured probably more
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: than league average.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. Definitely.
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  Speaker 2: Definitely, definitely, definitely, which is interesting. And I mean, they,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: they also had that they were converted into sacks, right?
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: I think that's, yeah, that's huge.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: That's gotta be a big number, right? The Titans have
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: an eight, had an 8.6 sacks sack percentage in the
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: first game.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: That's like, what did we say? What the Eagles was?
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Eagles was 10.7. So I would think anything above like
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: six is pretty big.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: I think that's a really fair number to kind of
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: look at as a heuristic for sure.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Uh, all right. So the Eagles defense allowed, uh, what, well,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: what do you make of the separation numbers here?
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, 3.2 is pretty good. Uh, it's definitely
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: not that the 2.8 number, but it's, it's pretty good. Right. Um,
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: it's pretty good as a defense to limit to under,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: you know, mid five, mid 3.5. Right. And then, but
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: the Titans were getting open. I mean, they, they had separation.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: They just were under duress so much that they couldn't
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: get the board. Couldn't get the ball out. Right. Yeah.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: The Titans have some guys who can get open now.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, we know Colonel Tate was drafted very high
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: and we know Wanda Robinson is a very good slot receiver.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: He's shifty. He's, He's just like your quintessential slot receiver.
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: You know my feeling on Wandale Robinson.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Yes, I know. I know you wanted him at Penn State.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: I tried really hard.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he made a lot of money, and they were
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: hoping that he would add that dimension to the offense.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: He and Tate, I think, both had like 38 yards,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: which for their game was the leading. But they can
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: play if you give Ward time. I think pressure, as
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: this data show is showing, is really going to be
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: essential for the Eagles.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to go back one second. Cam Ward,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: when he was not under pressure, was 16-22 for 123
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: in a touchdown. So that's a big number to me. Like,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: he can play if his pocket is clean.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And honestly, he can normally play when under pressure.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: I just think the way they were finishing, you know,
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: it was a very efficient defensive effort by the Jets' D-line.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So the Jets... So the Titans on offense had
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: a 0% run stuff, which means they didn't get stopped
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: behind the line at all, right?
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's at least according to the NFL Pro.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: That was the statistic that came out.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: And they faced the light box 85% of the time.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: So the Jets clearly decided that they could defend the
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Titans probably out of a nickel look.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: Which is what I anticipate. the Eagles will try to
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: do play mostly nickel, depending on what's going on with
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: the gene. He says he's going to play. We'll see,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: you know?
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, the Eagles are a little bit more
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: banged up on defense than I think people originally thought. Yeah. Yeah.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: But I mean, I guess Carter was dealing with a
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: wrist injury, you know?
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Which I hope explains, you know, how his performance
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: at least last week. So sure. Might be great.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: No, the Eagles go ahead.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. They're going to need more from him for sure.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. The Eagles did stuff runs at a 16% rate.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: Where does that fall on league average?
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Um, I think the run stuff rate is around 12%.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: I want to say, let me, I can verify that
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: right now.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fine. I was just curious. Cause I, they
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: did all right against run. I don't remember a whole
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: bunch of runs blown up or anything like that though. Um, merit,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: I think merit and, uh, Rashad White actually combined for
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: a hundred yards rushing. So it's not like they average
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: five yards per run, but they, they move the chains.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: And you're, you're kind of seeing a similar tandem, right.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: With Pollard and, and I guess sharp in that, you know,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: they're good backs. They're not great. They can do different things.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Pollard used to be explosive back when he was with
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys, but he's had a lot of injuries.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he has. By the way, league average is around, like, 14%.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Okay. So the Eagles are a little bit above league
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: average there. There you go. The Eagles did not stack
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: the box at all, much against the Commanders at 6.3%.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: I imagine they probably will not do that against the
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Titans either.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: Agreed. I mean, that's just Fangio defense. You're not going
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: to see it so much. Right.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: All right. So having said all that and broken it down, Sam,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: what are you thinking?
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Eagles will comfortably win this game. Yeah?
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: They should. Yeah. On paper, you know, if I had
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: the spreadsheet in front of me Any model I built,
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: I feel very comfortable that the Eagles should win this
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: game by a decent margin. But at the same time,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: you know, stats don't play football and models don't play football.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: So we'll have to see what happens. I do think
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: it's interesting that the Eagles are, they're going down tomorrow
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: to acclimate the climate, which they did in the Tampa Bay, right?
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: Those games.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: They're going out today. You know, the show comes out
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: on Friday, so it's today.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Oh, right. Yes. Cause it's coming on Friday. Yeah. Yeah.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: I forgot about that part.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: What is one data point that you're going to be
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: really interested in after this game that you're looking forward
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: to seeing?
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: That's a really good question. There's a, there's a couple
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: that are really would know.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: I just want one. I just want one. That's the,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: come on. That's why we ask the tough questions here
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: on inside.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: You do. I think I would really like to see
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: the EPA per pass on the Eagle side, on the
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: Eagle side. Yeah, I agree.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: I think that's a really good one. They got to
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: get it going. Got to see some signs of progress.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: That would make me, if that number is, you know, 0.05
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: or more, I'd feel pretty good.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: I like it. Great stuff.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: What about you? Let's throw it right back at you.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: One data point. Well, I think they have to get
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: this run game going. So even though I agree with
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: you about the pass, I'll probably be looking at, Either
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: EPA per run or run stuff rate, especially with the
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: change at left guard.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: Run success rate, I think, might be a better. That's right.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Run success rate.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Run stuff is almost like negative. I really mean more positively.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Do they have success with it?
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah. They kind of work together, right? They do.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: They go hand in hand.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: You could do either one and feel comfortable. But maybe
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: next week we can talk about how we felt about
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: it a little bit.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Love it.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: Love it.
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: All right. Great preview. Great job with the charts. Everybody listening,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I think we gave you a good understanding of how
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: this matchup is from an analytics standpoint. And now it's
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: left for the Eagles and Titans to play the game
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. For Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. You've been
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.