Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for liftoff.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: What's going on, everybody? Happy Thursday. Hope you're having a
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: good week so far. We're here talking some fights. UFC
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Fight Night, it's called, but it's also Noche UFC in Glendale, Arizona.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Heard that right. Glendale, Arizona means my backyard. I'm headed
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: down to the fights with my brother and brother-in-law. Super excited.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Shout out to DraftKings for hooking it up. We got
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: 13 fights. We got 13 solid fights, some better than others, obviously.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: This fight right here, Tommy McMillan, Marwin Rahiki, an absolute banger.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Can't wait to see that. But, yeah, anytime I'm watching
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: fights live, I am always pumped up. 100K up top
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: as well, even with NFL back, even with college football, 100,000
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: to first is great news for the MMA community. Nick Marley,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: how are we doing today?
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Doing good, doing good. I mean, I'm really pumped to
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: have Tommy McMillan back, and it's not even the main event.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I wish I was going to the card. Man, are
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: you going to be close enough to get blood on you?
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: Maybe. I don't know for sure. I don't know. I'll
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: be down there. I don't, I didn't look, I like
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: to be excited. I look at like what section kind
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: of and stuff. I don't, it didn't say floor seats,
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: but I don't know if I'm in the 100 somewhere. Nice.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So that's a, that's going to be bad-ass man. Hopefully
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: it's a great time. Yeah.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, it can't be a bad time. That's always
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: my favorite event. If anyone out here, if you listen
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: to the podcast, you obviously like UFC. If you've anyone's
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: never been to an event and it comes somewhat near
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: you or you have an opportunity, I could not recommend
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: it anymore. Uh, Seven hours, eight hours of violence, unlike
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: any other sporting event you can go to with a
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: lot of like-minded people. In terms of this card for DFS,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: I guess 13 fights is great. A little different than
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: some of our recent ones. We have 9,700, and then
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: it goes 9,500. Then it goes at 9,400, 9,300. The
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: upper tier nine case is strong. Yeah, what are your
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: additional thoughts on this card?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I think ownership is going to be actually pretty tough.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of it's just going to go
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: to the main event, just based on a lot of
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: people like in Gene Silva and it being a main event.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: And then I think McMillan Rahiki is going to get
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: a ton of ownership as well. Aside from that, I
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: think it can get pretty spread out. There's a lot
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: of guys I think could get higher on, but at
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the same time, they're risky plays. So I think it'll
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: keep them in check.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Eight of the 14 fights are expected to finish.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: This McMillan-Rahiki fight is, I mean, just, again, an absolute banger.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: It'll probably be the highest zone for DFS. I think
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: it will or it should be. Kind of as a
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: big favorite in the main event is Silva, minus 425.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: So that will lead to big ownership on the Silva side,
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: not as much on Delgado, similar to like we saw
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: last week. 104, though, is not on the optimal. So
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: we'll get into it. We'll go fight by fight. Appreciate
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: everyone hanging out. We'll see. Touch on some marketing stuff
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: in a little bit. Talking what we have for the
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: NFL season. Obviously, we have a game tonight. So, super excited. Hoop, Tambo,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: and myself already did a show. But let's talk some
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: fights first. Then we'll get into that. We got Regina.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Taryn taking on JJ Aldrich. Taryn at minus 270. Aldrich
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: plus 222. Plus 230 for this fight to finish. Taryn
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: plus 250 inside the distance. Aldrich plus 950. This one's
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: tough for me to get to. Big Marley, 90-100, plus
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: 250 inside the distance. It's not terrible. It's not great, though.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: It's expected to go the distance. Over 2.5 is minus 325.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Not a fight I'm looking to get too much. Taren
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: by decision is how I see it. What about you?
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm definitely not excited to get to
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: this fight, but I think Taren is a way for
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: me to get a little bit different. Aldridge is the
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: cleaner boxer just the better pure striking but she is
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: too low volume for me to like her to even
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: win in the striking I think Taryn's a little sloppier
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: on the feet but she could double up Aldridge in
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: volume alone if it stays standing but on the regional
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: scene she was mixing in a lot of takedowns and
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I think she's live for takedowns in this fight maybe
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: a good amount of control time could be active in
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: top control as well and I also think a submission
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: has some potential too so I'm going to play a
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: little bit of Taryn just to get different, and that'll
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: be a lot of the lineups where I have McMillan
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: and Silva or Delgado, something like that. But I think
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: she is in play for 100-plus just because of her
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: volume alone and if she's looking to grapple especially. All right.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: That's a little more interesting than I initially had. Taryn
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: would be my preferred play. I don't love Aldrich. I
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: think there's other dogs. Hey, Aldrich's a four-play. It's supposed
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: to go all 15 minutes. I still didn't lost. I
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: don't think she scores enough, whereas there's some other underdogs,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: at least when they win, they'll score and you can
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: feel good about them being optimal. And you get no
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: leverage because Taryn's not getting any ownership. But yeah, maybe
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: I'll boost Taryn a little bit. I just don't really
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: think she wrestles in this one. Round one props, not great.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: She has 9,100 though. So at least you get a
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: couple hundred dollar discount from the Silvas, Balgores, Baja Mundes
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: of the world. So yeah, I'm fine with it, I guess,
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: in chalkier lineups. All right, we'll keep rolling. Next fight
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: on the card. We got Sean King taking on Jesse Rojas,
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: minus 205, King. Plus 177 is Rosas. Minus 150 for
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: this fight to finish. King, plus 145 inside the distance. Rosas,
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: plus 280. We have three mid-tier fights on the card.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: This is the only expected to finish. Again, at minus 150.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: The other one, plus 175. The other one, plus 230.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: So that'll lead to this fight getting, I guess, more
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: ownership than usual. However, with that being said, a couple
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars more. The Tommy McMillan fight. The Waldo fight. Um,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: I got tires, Tim Elliott. So there are some fights
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: in the range that others will prefer. It's going to
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: get ownership. I think rightfully so on both sides, inside
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: the distance props are there. Um, both guys, well-rounded submission props,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: King plus five 50 Rosas plus four 75 probably plays
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: out on the math a little bit. Is that how
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: you see it?
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Uh, man, I'm not really sure on this fight. I
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: think I can go any which way on this one.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: I think it could bust in a decision, um, either side. Uh,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: but I also think it could play out pretty close King.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: He looks like the more powerful guy, the more imposing
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: wrestler of the two. I think the bigger guy as well,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: but Rosas looks quicker, uh, possibly the better submission grappler.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: So I'm just not sure on this one. I'd imagine
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: ownership's going to go to King because the money's kept
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: going to him. Uh, so maybe that puts me a
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: little bit more on the Rosa side, but I'm not
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: sure on this one. I think it's closer to a
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: three than a five star, but I'm fine with either side.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so as well. King open minus one 50.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: I put all these odds up on Tuesday with some
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: King minus one 80 Tuesday now minus two Oh five.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: That's quite a bit of line movement. So I'm going
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: to keep a close eye on that one. And if
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: it keeps increasing, to be honest, I'll probably go with
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: the line movement, even with ownership. I don't think the
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: ownership would move with it enough on this 13 fight
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: card for it to be, uh, for it to be
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: worth going to the Rosas side. So I'm going to
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: play a little Rosas. Obviously, again, it's a good fight
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: to target expected to finish, but I'm leaning King even
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: though he is 800 or 600 more. What's up, Lone Wolf?
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: Great to see you. I hope you're doing well. Again,
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: I appreciate everyone hanging out, watching live or watching on playback.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: The real fans, even though NFL is back, hey, we
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: still need something to do on Saturdays. College football now
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: is here, but UFC is where you should, yeah, where
• 8:01
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• 8:05
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• 8:07
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• 8:25
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• 8:38
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  Speaker 2: everything right here. All right, let's get back to the
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: MMA Stone, the third fight on the card. Rong Zhu,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: minus 158, taking on Rafa Garcia, plus 138, plus 175
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Garcia, the underdog, better inside
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: the distance prop at plus 325. Rong, plus 375. Take
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: it away.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is one of my favorite underdog
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: plays on the card just because of Garcia's pace and
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: pressure alone. I do like Rong Zhu to be the
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: better striker at range, the better athlete overall, more knockout power.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: But I think he needs to keep this one standing.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: So he might be relying on a knockout at 8,500. Garcia,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I think pace alone on the feet, he can 10X
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: a 77. a $ 7, 700 decision if it is, uh, mostly
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: striking based. But I also think he has a hundred
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: plus upside by mixing in multiple takedowns and multiple rounds.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: So I do like Garcia. I think he just has
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: more ways to win this fight, make it a dirty fight,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: get on the inside, grind on the cage until you
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: can get takedowns. And I just think that heavy punch,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: pressure and pace will start to wear on Rong Zhu.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: So I like Garcia to win a decision in this
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: one and pay off that price tag.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: I'm in agreement. Well, I'm in agreement that my preferred
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: play is Hoffa Garcia. I'm picking Rong Zhu to win
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: the decision. He's just made a lot of improvements since
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: the start of his career, second stint in the UFC.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: I just think he's the better striker. His takedown defense
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: has been good. With that being said, that doesn't necessarily
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: translate to points at 8,500. which is my concern. But
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: because I'm picking Rongzhu, because I think Jafa Garcia does
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: get a decent amount of ownership, I don't know. I'm
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: probably going to be along the field, maybe slightly underweight Garcia.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: Like when he wins, he scores. That's the reason to
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: play him. He's going to want to wrestle. I don't
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: think he has the striking advantage, so I think he's
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: forced to wrestle most of the fight. But he is
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: six years younger. He is giving up some height. Rongzhu
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: has impressed me. I think he wins the decision. So.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, man. How many lineups would you need to play
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: any wrong zoo, Big Marley? I just don't know how
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: far Garcia is so tough. I don't see it.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, with 10, I wouldn't get there. With 20, I
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: would think about it. I would definitely play him if
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I'm getting much over 20. Like 50 lineups, I'm definitely
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: playing some wrong zoo. I think that Garcia's pace alone
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: should help wrong zoo as well, and that knockout could
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: come in the first round, and he could be a
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: slate breaker.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Let's see, plus 375 is 21%. How many of his
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: finishes do you think are optimal?
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I'd say more than half. Okay.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, maybe like 12%, 13%. Probably around the field
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: is probably optimal. If you are playing 50-plus teams, yeah,
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: probably 50-plus, then I'd be playing all 26 fighters more
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: than likely every single week. All right, let's keep it
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: rolling to the next fight on the card. Tommy Gant
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: and Dracar Close. Big favorite is Gant at minus 435.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: Close plus 335. This fight is minus 260 to finish.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Gant minus 200 inside the distance. Close plus 700. Gant
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: plus 175 in round one. Gant is someone that I
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: want to play a lot in DFS. It really doesn't
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: matter what his price is. scored 129 in his debut,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: went six for 17 on takedown attempts in two rounds.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Anyone that's doing that is good for DFS. So I'm
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: in at 9,400. Probably my favorite 9K option on the slate,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: even at the price, even more than Silva. I think
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: his upside is pretty much unmatched, minus the McMillan fight.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: Do you see it the same?
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Gant's my favorite play on the card. I'm going
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: to get a ton of Gant. I doubt I'll even
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: get to any close as a hedge. Close is the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: experienced vet. He's going to have the striking edge in
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: this one. But Gant is just such a nasty wrestler
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: and he is powerful as well. I think he's going
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: to be landing takedowns and landing some heavy ground as well.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: So I like him to get a TKO on the
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: ground at some point in this fight. But even in
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: a decision alone, he has the wrestling to pay off
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: a $ 9, 400 price tag. So I'm cool with Gant. I'm
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: going to be playing him in a lot of his fights.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: But I think this is a good fight to start
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: to build his name.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say it's worth noting Tuesday minus 500
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: was Gant. Now he's minus 435. So some money came
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: back on the close side. I do expect Gant. I mean,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: people are going to play him. I do think he's
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: probably going to be in the upper 30s percent, maybe.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: And close if he wins, he's 6800, even 70, you
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: would take at 6800. So I do think there is
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: a case to be made for close, not only taking money,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: but getting leverage off of Gant at a very cheap
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: price tag. So Let's see what he is. He's plus 335.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: Plus 335 is 23%. Playing 18% close will get you overweight.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: And that is a little less than his money line.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: So I actually like that in larger field stuff. I
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: do also like how the draft or the bout order, 9,500
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: Bob Moondays, 9,700 Bill Gorey, 9,400 Gant. So we can
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: compare these next two fights, all the favorites to each
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: other and the dogs with each other. But this is
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: the highest priced And biggest favorite on the card, Yusri Balgori,
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: minus 750. Thinking on Jordan Santos, plus 534. Minus 200
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Balgori, minus 170 inside the distance. Santos,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: plus 800. And then Balgori, round one, plus 200. So Balgori,
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: more of a striker, more expensive than Gant, and worse
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: inside the distance in round one props. Usually that's not...
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: That's not something that I'm going to want to spend
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: the extra money for, so I don't know how much
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: I'm going to get. I definitely prefer Gant. What about you?
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I prefer Gant, and I think Bellagori's going to
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: need a first-round knockout to pay off a $ 9, 700 price tag.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: It's just I don't know if we'll have enough underdogs
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: to even get there, so I'm not going to force
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: him into any lineups at all. I really don't want
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: to play Santos either. I think they're both primary strikers.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Bellagori's going to be a lot taller, longer, just a
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: more decorated kickboxer. And I think at some point he
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: is going to knock out Santos. If it's in the
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: second or the third round, though, it's likely too late
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: at that point. I don't think there's going to be
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: crazy volume leading up to it. Maybe he can get
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: multiple knockdowns, and that would be what puts him there.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: So I'm not completely against using him. But, yeah, if
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: it's between him and Gant, I'd rather even save the 300,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: even if I could afford Belgory. So, yeah, give me
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: Belgory to get a win and just not score enough.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm totally with you. How would you rank Close
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: or Santos if you had to pick?
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I'd probably like Santos just a little bit because this
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: could be a little market overcorrection. Belgor, who's an underdog
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: in his last two fights, now he's coming in as
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: minus 750. I mean, I get that he is the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: better prospect, but it is a limited sample size, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: he was also an underdog leading into those fights.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: Yep, all right, makes sense. Let's get to the next
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: big favorite. In a row, Ignacio Bahamundes, minus 525. Mazem Salikov,
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: plus 400. Minus 325 for this fight to finish. Bahamundes,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: minus 225 inside the distance. Salikov, plus 575. Bahamundes, round one,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: plus 150. Bahamundes is taking money, too. It was plus
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: 175 at opening round one, taking 25 cents there. It
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: was minus 215 inside the distance, now minus 225. On
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: the money line, minus 300, Bahamundes, now minus 525. You
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: can see four inches in height, five inch reach advantage.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Bahamundes is actually coming up a weight class as well,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: making his debut at welterweight, which I think is good.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, he had a huge, huge frame, cut a
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: lot of weight for lightweight. Salikov's 42. Ignacio should style
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: on him, but he's 9,500. I prefer Gant for 100
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: or less, but I do prefer Bahamundes to Belgori. So
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: that's how I rank it. I rank it Gant, or Gant, Ignacio, Belgori,
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: and then I rank it close Salikov-Santos, take away this fight,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: and then do your rankings.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Salikov's going to be another fade for me.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: He's 42. He's low volume. He's definitely got knockout power,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: but if he doesn't knock out Bahamondas, I just don't
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: know how he even wins this fight. He would need
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Bahamondas to not show up and just not go out
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: there and throw enough volume like.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: He usually does. Like he did against Trey Ogden. Oh, no,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: that was– Zell Huber did it. Zell Huber did that.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yes. I get those two confused. But Bahamondes, I
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: love his volume. I like his speed. He's a really
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: good striker overall. I think he's the grappling edge as
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: well in this one. So I'm cool with Bahamondes, but 9,500,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: it's another big price tag. I like him less than Gant,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: more than Belgory. And then I'm probably the opposite on–
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: the underdogs give me like santos and then close and
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: then salikov i just really don't want to get to
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: any salikov at all i get that the knockout power
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: is there he's only 6700 but i think it'll be
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: a bad look for him to win this fight at
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: 42 years old when i think they're really pushing it
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: to be a bahamondes.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Win 100 i think there's a couple fights on this
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: card where they're pushing it the gant fight alone close
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: has a name 36 years old i think or 38
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: years old excuse me and Taryn, I think the same thing,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: only 21 years old, 8-0, all their kids UFC fights
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: under her belt. So I think a couple on this
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: card that are set-up fights. Yeah, that's all I got
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: on this one. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out, though. Hope
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: you're having a great day. And again, like button helps
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: us out a ton. 2 p.m. Eastern is the start
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: time for these fights on Saturday. I believe they moved
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: it up because of the Ryan Garcia boxing match that
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: they wanted.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: To get in.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, give me 11 a.m. over here. I'll be able
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: to get to the fights, maybe go out after for
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: a drink or two, get home for a 6 a.m.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: show the next day, talking some football. So we got
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: a hell of a weekend over here, a lot of
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: money to be made. And again, Shippenation.com to help you
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: make some money or at least try to in the
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: NFL streets, college football, MMA, MLB still going on, NASCAR
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: still going on, you name it. It's the best time
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: of the year. Shippenation.com, join the nation, can get in
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: as low as $ 19, and that'll cover... A lot of
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: good five-day action in the sports world. All right, let
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: me scroll back down. Number seven, Edgar Turner. is taking
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: on Tim Elliott's Chira is minus 215 Elliott plus 183
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: minus 135 for this fight to finish Chira is plus
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: 125 inside the distance Elliott plus 415 I'm in on
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: this fight man even though if you just look at
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: the stone it would look bad a lot of red
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Chira's Even though he doesn't really do too much, when
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: he does something, it usually results in a finish. 12
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: of his 13 wins are by, excuse me, 13 of
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: his 14 wins are by finish. Nine of those coming
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: by submission. On the Elliott side, he has, I think
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: it was nine submissions of his own, but he's been
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: submitted six times as well. So I'm going to say
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: someone gets a submission in this fight and I like it.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: What about you?
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one of my favorite fights on the card. Um,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Chires is our moment winner. Elliot is our minute winner.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: I just think that this fight is going to take
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: place on the ground with Elliot being the wrestler in
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: this one. And he could grind out three rounds of
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: wrestling and just beat Chires on the cards and score
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: a hundred plus points in a decision at $ 7, 400. Uh,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: so that's why I have it as a three and three,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: but Chires is my preferred play of the two because
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's just so much more dangerous. He's a
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: way better striker, a lot more dangerous than Elliot's just
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: really awkward and can bring a pace on the feet.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: But Chyrez is going to be so much more dangerous
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: in every single round. And even if Elliot is the wrestler,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: I think Chyrez ends up grabbing a neck at some
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: point and puts him away. So whether it's on the
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: feet or the ground, Chyrez is going to be live
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: for that finish. And I think he gets it at
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: some point. But if he doesn't get the finish, I
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: think Elliot's going to be the winner of the fight.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: So I just like it either way.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: I think more Tim Elliot wins are optimal than Chyrez.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: And 8,800 is still somewhat of a real price tag.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Like I like 8,800 fight to 8,775 and 8,676. These
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: are all fights I want to target. It allows you
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: to leave money. Like all of them can outscore Gene
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: Silva in the main events and you can leave money
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: that way. So I'm going to be in on all
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: of them. I do worry though, like Elliot wins round one,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Tyra spends it off his back and all that gets
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: a second round submission and scores like 85 or whatever.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: That is also in play for Tyra's, Because the more
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: the minutes go, he doesn't do as much minute per minute.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: But when he does, he can get a finish at
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: any time in this one. So I think I prefer
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: Elliott more of choosing for the 1,400 savings and feeling
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: better when he wins that he's there. He's going to
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: offensive wrestle for sure. Just Ken Charez finding a neck
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: on the feet. I think Charez is the better striker,
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: more powerful striker. So yeah, I think the fight finishes.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Books agree. Flyweight fight, minus 135 to finish. I'm in
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: on both sides for sure. What's up, Marquis? Great to
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: see you. I hope you're doing well. Next fight on
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: the card, definitely not my favorite. It's David Martinez and
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Dan Ige. Minus 420, Martinez. Plus 320, Ige. Plus 150
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Martinez plus 185 inside the distance.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: Ige plus 650. One of my least favorite fights on
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: the card. Ige only been knocked out once. Both guys
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: are strikers. Not much green that we're looking at on
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: the stone. I got this as a fade if I
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: had to play any It'd be Ige, but I think
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: he is outmatched on the feet. He's going to lose
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: a decision. What about you?
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is a fight that's set up
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: for Martinez to get the win. I just really like
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Martinez's striking overall. He's really fast. He's got such good hands.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: I think he's got power, and he can go hard
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: for 15 minutes. Ige, I think he has one-shot knockout power.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: That's his only real chance to win a striking match,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: I think. Um, he should really look to wrestle, I
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: think in this fight, but he hasn't landed multiple takedowns
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: in like a decade basically. So I, I wouldn't trust
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: for that to happen. I think this is all Martinez. Uh,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: if he wins all three rounds, I don't think Martinez
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: pays off a $ 9, 200 salary though. So he probably is
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: reliant on either a knockout or multiple knockdowns. for him
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: to get there. That's why I have it as a
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: two-star don't really care for this fight, but Martinez is
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: my clear pick to win. I like him a lot.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: We see it the same. Sounds like we both think
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: it's a fade and Martinez wins the decision. Next fight
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: on the card. Waldo Cortez, it costs a minus one
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: 90 Curtis blades, plus one 65 minus one 15 for
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: this fight to finish a Costa plus one 50 inside
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: the distance blades plus four 25. What do you think
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: in this one?
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Another one I really like because I think it's similar
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: to the Shires Elliott fight where Acosta is probably live
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: to knock out Blades in any round at all. I
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: think he is the better striker, the much more powerful striker.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: He's more durable. Blades has a questionable chin. He's taken
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of damage. Took a lot of damage in
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: that last fight against Hokit, but that was an epic fight.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: And I think that fight alone makes me think he
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: could stand with Acosta for a while. Uh, but blades
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: needs to get back to his wrestling I think if
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: he wrestles in this fight, he could win all three
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: rounds and look like he should have been a big
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: favorite Uh, he is getting old though I don't know
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: that that is in play like it used to be
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: But he is one of those underdogs that has 120
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: point upside and I I like to play that but
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: if he Doesn't wrestle. I think he will get knocked
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: out at some point. So i'm cool with either side
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: of this one Um, I don't even remember who I
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: picked to win. Let me see. Uh I picked blades.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: So yeah, usually if I don't know who I'm picking
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: to win, it's usually the underdog.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: I like it. This fight, or like you said, this
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: fight's very similar to the Chira's Elliot fight. You have
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: a four star, both three and three on both. Which
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: one would like fight? Would you have to, if you
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: had played a single entry and you could just target one,
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: which fight would you target?
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: One fight's optimal. One fight's not optimal. Which one is optimal?
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: I guess I would go with this one just because
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: they're bigger guys. The first round knockouts more in play.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'd probably agree. And it's close, though.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, super close. I might end up with more exposure
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: to the other one. I don't know.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: We'll see. Yeah, it's definitely close. What I was going
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: to say is, yeah, you look at Blade's recent fights,
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: it seems like he doesn't even wrestle anymore. However, the
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: Hokie fight, he went two for seven on takedowns. Not great,
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: but he still shot seven takedowns in what was an
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: all-out war most of that fight. Kunia fight, two for
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: 15 on takedown. So at least he's trying, it seems.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: And you looked at it, I guess, a little different
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: than I. You said because of the Hokit fight, he
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: can stand with Acosta for a while, which maybe is true.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: But man, I think that was the worst fight to
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: happen to his career. He's already been knocked out five times.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: He took all that damage. I am really worried about
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: the chin of Blades. I think Acosta can maybe just
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: touch him a couple times. When the chin goes, it
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: really goes. Acosta not known for just his one shot power,
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: but I am worried about it. Blades can't get takedowns.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: He gets knocked out or Blades gets him on the
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: mat and he could dominate him there. So I think
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: it's very binary fight to expect or coin flip to finish.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: But I think Acosta more live probably for a KO
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: than the market. And most of Blades wins at 7,500
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: or optimal. So I like this fight a lot. I
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: want to be overweight for sure, and it has to
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: stay in check somewhat in terms of ownership because that
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: McMillan-Rahiki fight's right next to it, and we'll get a ton.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: And then again, Chyra's Elliott is going to get some
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: ownership too, so this fight has to stay in check
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: to an extent. To a fight that I don't think
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: gets much ownership, kind of similar to the Martinez-Ige fight,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: is Manon Firo, minus 245. Alexa Grasso, plus 203. Most
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: likely fight to go the distance on the card at
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: minus 350. Fiora plus 400 inside the distance, Grasso plus 600.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: For me, it's dog or pass, and that's just because
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: Grasso's $ 1, 600 cheaper. And if she scores 70, she has
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: a chance, whereas Fiora doesn't. But I think Fiora wins
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: the decision. Don't think Grasso has excess wrestling much. I
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: think it's probably one-sided, 30-27, and this fight busts. So
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: what do you think?
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one of my least favorite fights on the card.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I put the four-star next to Grasso and the two-star
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: next to Fiora just because of the pricing alone. I'm
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: picking Fiora to win. I think she is just the
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: more powerful striker, the one who's going to be able
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: to set the pace, better in the clinch, better wrestler
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: as well. Grasso's just faster, a better opportunistic submission grappler,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: coming off one of the nastiest finishes I've ever seen.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: So I would rather play her at 73 than Fiora
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: at 89. But odds are this won't be in any
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: of my lineups if I'm only making 10 or less
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: lineups this week. So, uh, pick his Fiora to win,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: but probably score 75 to 85 points. And I don't
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: think that cuts it at 89. I agree.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah. You and I are locked up on this one.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the people's main events. I
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: have not, I really cannot remember too many fights that
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: I've been more excited to go. Like when I am
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: going to the fight that I'm more excited than this
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: fight right here man this i just it it feels
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: like it can't miss it feels like there is no
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: outcome which obviously isn't true every fight there's an outcome
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: where it's bad i don't understand percentages but i just
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: do not can't comprehend what a bad fight of these
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: two would look like that's tommy mcmillan and marwin rahiki
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: minus 162 mcmillan plus 142 rahiki minus 250 for this
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: fight to finish mcmillan plus 120 inside the distance rahiki
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: plus 200 Yeah, just looking at some of the line movement,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: we had McMillan open minus 135. A couple minutes later
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: was minus 185. A day later, McMillan was minus 133.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: Then he gets up to minus 171 on Tuesday. Let
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: me just make sure. Yeah, minus 171 on Tuesday and
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: now finds himself as a minus 162 favorite. this fight
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: opened come on it's not gonna refresh i want to
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: say it opened minus 175 to finish and it's now
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: minus 250 you can see it was minus 200 to
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: finish on tuesday and now it's minus 250 yeah open
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: minus 160 to finish now all the way down to
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: minus 250 It's going to be a war, 8,600, 7,600,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: even though it's three rounds. I'm in for it. I'm
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: in for it. What do you think you're going to–
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: how do you see it play out? Who do you
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: like more for DFS? Yeah, break it down.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I cannot wait for this fight. McMillan's going to
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: be one of my favorite fighters in the UFC. I
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: think he has real chance to be an absolute superstar.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: He's going to need to keep winning, but if he
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: wins this fight, it's going to help out a lot.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Ricky doesn't have a great name, but the people who
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: know the sport, they know that this is going to
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: be an epic fight. I think if it ends in
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: the first round, Rahiki is our likely knockout winner. I
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: think he is just the more skilled striker, has more
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: tools in his striking toolbox, and he is aggressive trying
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: to kill his opponent early in the fight. But I
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: think he can slow down, and I think the longer
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: it goes, the pace that McMillan can set, the volume
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: that he can throw, I think he's just going to
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: drown Rahiki and either knock him out late or win
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: a decision later. But I also think that McMillan is
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: going to be a sneaky wrestler in this fight too,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: especially in round one when Rahiki is his freshest. So
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I kind of think McMillan wrestles round one and then
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: picks up that volume in round two, round three. Either way,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: I like this fight. I want it to be in
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: every single lineup that I hand build. I'm going to
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: try to get more McMillan just because he's my favorite
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: fighter on the card. But I definitely want some Rahiki
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Hedges as well because I think he is super alive.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: So when not only in the first round, but in
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: the first minute, I think he could get a first
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: 60-second knockout.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: Wow. Man, this one's really tough for me. So this
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: is where I'm going with it. I think so many
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: remember Tommy. And like you said, he has the bigger name.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: He fought more recent. He's absolutely put up, what was it,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: 168 DraftKings points his last time out in a third-round knockout.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: He has all the stardom behind him. I think that
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: will translate to people clicking his name more in DFS
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: and could see any site that you look at, the
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: projected ownership just be under on McMillan and over on Rahiki.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: And it could be something like 48%, 52% Tommy McMillan
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: come Saturday. And Rahiki's like 33%. It definitely could be wrong.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: How you predict ownership is very important in a dupe
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: sport like MMA with a limited player pool. But I'm
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: taking that. thought process, and thinking McMillan gets steamed, Rahiki
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: moonwalks back, and I'm just going to go against the grain.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: And it's easier for me because he's 1K less. They
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: share the same amount of upside. And I like the favorites,
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: like almost always, more than the dogs. It's tougher for
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: me to click dogs. So with all that going on,
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: I'm just clicking Rahiki, not knowing anything about the sport.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: Besides that, I think one guy has fandom and is
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: going to steam. But it's pure game theory for me.
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: It's a phenomenal fight. I'm going to be cheering Rahiki.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: For whoever, my best teams are there. Like three fights left,
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: you kind of know the teams you're cheering for. I'll
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: probably be hoping I'm cheering for Tommy because he's the
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: favorite and I feel better about it. But I'm going
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: to have more Rahiki to the field, I think. You
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: said you're going to have it at 100% of teams.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: If you had 50 teams, would you make that rule
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: and still do that? How does it fail? How does
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: it fail?
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: An eye poke, no contest.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, all right. Then, yeah, load up on it because
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: that outcome, especially with these two junkyard dogs, it'd have
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: to really be bad for them not to quit. So, yeah,
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: 28 years old for Tommy, 24 for Heeky. Somebody's O
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: has to go. This is what the sport's all about.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: I can't wait for it. Co-main event time. I mean, this,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: like I said, that's the main event, or at least
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: that's the people's co-main event. It's the people's main event,
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: but it should be the co-main event. This fight has
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: Brandon Moreno, but it's another not great one for DFS
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: in my opinion. Joseph Morales minus 120. Brandon Moreno plus 100.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: Second most likely fight to go the distance at minus 290.
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: Morales plus 350 inside the distance. Moreno plus 525. For me,
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: it's Morales or Buss pretty much for DFS. He wants
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: it on the mat. He's a submission guy. I think
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: if he can catch him in any round, if he
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: gets it in round one, he has a chance. Moreno,
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: I think his best path, keep it on the feet, box.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Is he knocking out Morales? I don't know. Profs don't
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: really think so, so I'm going to guess that he doesn't.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Not a fight I want, Morales or nothing, and I
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: don't even know how much Morales I like.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I originally started as a two-star on this, and
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: I moved it to a three-star just because it's in
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: the mid-range. They're both cheap enough where they don't need
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: 100 points to make the optimal lineup, but I do
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: think I'll play it more like a two-star because I'm
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: not too interested in either side. I like that Moreno
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: is the underdog. He's $ 7, 900. It's UFC Noche, which is
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: why they got him on the card, I believe. So
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: I think there's reasons to play him, but he seems
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: like he's really on the way down and Morales is
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: on the way up. Morales is the better submission grappler.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: I like the pace he sets as well. I would
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: worry about a striking match in this fight with just
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: either side scoring 60 points in the decision, but Morales
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: does have the higher upside because of his pace wrestling
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: and submission so i think i probably do prefer him
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: over moreno a little bit.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: I like it we're on the same page all right
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: last fight of the night main event time big favorite
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: is gene silva minus 425 taking on jose delgado plus
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: 337 minus 450 for this fight to finish silva minus
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: 275 inside the distance delgado plus 525 silva round one
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: plus 215 this was supposed to be jose or uh
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: Gene Silva and Yair Rodriguez, which I was really pumped for.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: Out was Rodriguez with an injury. In is Jose Delgado.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: I'll let you start. I've started most of these fights.
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: I'll let you give all your thoughts before mine.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's going to be a fun main event.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Both guys are strikers. I mean, either one could mix
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: in takedowns, but I expect a striking match in this one.
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I think Delgado has a much better chance than Vegas does.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Silva's the one who's been planning for this fight, so
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: I think the longer it goes, the more it favors him.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: I like him to be the one pushing the pace,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: moving forward, eating shots to give shots, being a little
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: bit more dangerous, but Delgado is a slick striker. I
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: think he could catch Silva in rounds one or two
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: and put him away and absolutely be a lock for
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: the optimal, but I think the longer it goes, the
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: more he'll start to slow down because of the short notice,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: and I think Silva would start to take over probably
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: finish him late and there could be decent volume as well.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: So I'm not going to make it a rule to
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: have this fight in my lineup. I put it as
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: a five-star cause it is my second favorite fight behind
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: the McMillan one, but it's not that much ahead of
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: the Acosta fight in the Chires fight either. Those are
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: right there behind this.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't, I don't know if I come in
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: underway to the main event or just underweight Silva. Like I,
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: I think Silva's naturally going to be over-clicked and over-owned
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: because he's the main event favorite. But the fight's minus
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: 425 to finish just because this fight is the main event.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: So he has an extra two rounds. It's not expected
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: to get to the championship rounds. So I think it
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: just naturally gets inflated based on that without any merit
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: to it. And he's 9,300. And if I can get
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: a lot lower owned, let's see. I mean, Terran's a
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: lot lower owned and cheaper. So that's a one-on-one pivot
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: you can do. I was going to say Gant for
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: 100 more. I don't think he's going to be much
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: lower owned, to be honest, if at any. I think
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: it's pretty close. But you can drop down to the
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Acostas or the McMillans or the... Man, all the other
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: options are pretty much ahead of him. Maybe I will
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: get a little more Bob Mundays than I initially thought
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: or something like that because I'm playing him instead of Silva.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: Even though Silva's 200 less, I think probably Silva instead
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: of Bahamundes and leaving the money is more popular.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: I think Silva's going to be overrun when it's all
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: said and done, though. I do like Delgado a lot, though,
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: because when he wins, it's really hard for me, him
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: not being optimal at 6,900. I think he loses. I
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: think Silva knocks him out. I think Delgado, I'm worried
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: about the durability against the fucking monster of Silva that's
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: going to be in his face, walking him down, barking
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: at him, hands down. He's a scary dude. is Silva
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: and Delgado can be, can be hurt, but at the price,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: all of Delgado's wins got to be optimal and he'll
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: be a lot lower owned and leverage off a chalkier Silva.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: So I think game theory is leading me that way.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: We're going to say something.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: No, I think that makes sense though. Maybe, maybe I
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: move it down to a four star and kind of
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: play it a little bit the same.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely want fades in this one for sure.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I think this is a good card for DFS, a
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: little over 17,000 people. I believe $ 20 was the main
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: entry fee for 100K up top. And yeah, 13 fights,
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: 26 fighters. We might not see anyone above 50%. If so,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to be by too much.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: So a lot of combinations. I absolutely cannot wait for
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: this one. Some great fights littered throughout. And then we
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: got NFL Sunday the very next day. Then we also
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: got NFL on Monday. We're recording this on Thursday. Guess what?
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: We also got NFL in less than two hours. So
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: Definitely head over to ShipItNation.com, bottom left, join the nation.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: You can get in for all access, monthly or above,
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: which qualifies you for the Ship It Games, gets you NFL,
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: college football, MLB, MMA, NASCAR on Sundays, all of the
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: sports going on right now. As you can see what
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: each package gets you, it gets cheaper if you do
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: go up to annual versus month. We also do have
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: single sport options. If you are just in the MMA
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: streets and don't even mess with NFL, less than a
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: dollar a day, you can get over to MMA, get
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: in the discord, check out the stone projections, ownership, everything
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: gets up. On Friday, and if there's any updates that's needed,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: we take Discord and update as well.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: I'm pumped.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: Big Marley, best time of the year. I'm liking what
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: you're rocking, your shirt as well. Final thoughts before we
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: get on out of here.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Man, have fun at the fights. I think it's going
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: to be an awesome one to be at. I cannot
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: wait for that Tommy McMillan fight. I hope he wins
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: just for the sport alone. Good luck to you, Tidal.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Good luck, everybody. For Big Marley, I'm Titletown. Be safe.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: Good luck. Peace.