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Gambler's Guide To NFL Free Agency · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites
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Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network Game Chat Millman,
1:22
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It has been
1:28
Speaker 1: a remarkable for seventy two hours if you're talking about
1:33
Speaker 1: NFL quarterback musical chairs, free agency is coming, Draft is coming,
1:39
Speaker 1: super Bowl futures are shifting. Here to break everything down,
1:44
Speaker 1: everything we need to know about how to make decisions
1:47
Speaker 1: right now in what is the most fun off season
1:49
Speaker 1: for any league that there is, in the best betting
1:52
Speaker 1: league in the world, Getting ahead of it now is
1:55
Speaker 1: all that matters. Professional better. My bff, my companion, cham Padre,
2:01
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter hold On Simon plus my own personal nemesis
2:08
Speaker 1: from our show, convinced me every Sunday during the NFL season.
2:12
Speaker 1: Action Network Senior Writer. I hate saying it because he's
2:16
Speaker 1: probably one of our best analysts of anything, whether it's NFL, NBA,
2:22
Speaker 1: thinking logically, analyzing players, breaking things down, contextualizing, even though
2:29
Speaker 1: I kind of can't stand and personally, Mr Chris Raybun Oh, well,
2:34
Speaker 1: glad to be here, guys. I mean that's an introduction,
2:37
Speaker 1: it was I mean, you essentially were like, I'm good
2:39
Speaker 1: at everything except asking for a great job title. It's true,
2:45
Speaker 1: maybe we should work sis and I just had something.
2:49
Speaker 1: I've just had his review yesterday. He didn't ask me
2:51
Speaker 1: for a new job title. Yeah, it's like it doesn't
2:54
Speaker 1: really mean much. I guess like at the end of
2:56
Speaker 1: the day. But it's now like when you just introugued
2:59
Speaker 1: me and you like stumble through that, even though it
3:00
Speaker 1: was a great intro, uh, now actually like we have
3:03
Speaker 1: to revisit, so put that on the way. Call me after.
3:07
Speaker 1: You're a great negotiator. We can negotiate after the show. Simon, dude,
3:13
Speaker 1: you come back from vacation and as soon as you
3:15
Speaker 1: get back, the NFL markets go crazy with quarterbacks making decisions,
3:19
Speaker 1: gms making decisions. It's getting nutty out there. I know.
3:24
Speaker 1: It's a weird time to where it's like i gotta
3:26
Speaker 1: be doing my job and do football stuff and I'm
3:27
Speaker 1: trying to watch some college basketball just get ready for
3:30
Speaker 1: March madness. So it's like, I don't know, not the
3:32
Speaker 1: best time in here, but it's definitely the most exciting. Um,
3:35
Speaker 1: I mean, first shift, before you even get the free
3:37
Speaker 1: agency the fans. No, This is Atlanta Falcons podcast. I
3:41
Speaker 1: gotta hear about what happened. What was your day like
3:43
Speaker 1: when you heard about Colin Ridley because Chad Millman, New
3:46
Speaker 1: York Times Bestseller, the head of Action Network content. Were
3:50
Speaker 1: you just like, holy sh it? Because again this is
3:52
Speaker 1: before we knew it was a thousand five undre. When
3:54
Speaker 1: I first saw that report, my mind went to the
3:57
Speaker 1: dark place. I was like, oh my god, I've seen
3:59
Speaker 1: Calinn really fixed games. He doesn't fix games. He's just
4:03
Speaker 1: some idiot. That's all promo from Caesar's to get a
4:06
Speaker 1: thousand betted. So I would love to hear what you
4:09
Speaker 1: were thinking when this all broke. Yeah, this is crazy, right, So, um,
4:13
Speaker 1: everybody I'm sure knows. But uh, it came out. It
4:18
Speaker 1: was reported earlier this week. This is Thursday reported earlier
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Speaker 1: this week that Calvin Ridley uh in November of one
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Speaker 1: bet on NFL games. That was the initial report, and
4:31
Speaker 1: that he had been suspended for a year. And then
4:34
Speaker 1: the news came out he had bet. Uh, he had
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Speaker 1: bets and parlays when he had taken a voluntary leave
4:42
Speaker 1: from the Falcons. He had done it u through the
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Speaker 1: hard Rock and like the one month that you could
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Speaker 1: bet online in the state of Florida. He did it.
4:50
Speaker 1: He used his phone. And the integrity programs. I don't
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Speaker 1: say this to be like a student for the league
4:55
Speaker 1: and sort of integrity programs through Genius Sports, but look,
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Speaker 1: they they have instituted these things because betting is legal,
5:04
Speaker 1: because the leagues are taking money from the operators, because
5:07
Speaker 1: they are in bed with everybody who's doing anything related
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Speaker 1: to betting, and they need to be as above board
5:13
Speaker 1: as possible. They have talked about integrity from the get go.
5:17
Speaker 1: So Calvin Ridley used his phone and bet this parlay
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Speaker 1: and it immediately got flagged by Genius and immediately got
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Speaker 1: sent to the NFL was investigated. Now the guy is
5:28
Speaker 1: suspended for a year. Totally crazy that it happened, considering
5:34
Speaker 1: how much education is time is spent on educating players, officials, executives, uh,
5:43
Speaker 1: members of every league office about how you're not allowed
5:48
Speaker 1: to bet on sports if you were involved in these games. Now,
5:52
Speaker 1: NFL though, like he could have bet college and he
5:54
Speaker 1: would have got his eleven million dollars. It's a coming season.
5:57
Speaker 1: It was just because again because he bet NFL they
6:00
Speaker 1: don't care about other sports stuff. Apparently that's that I
6:03
Speaker 1: don't know, like it's to me all the they're all murky,
6:06
Speaker 1: like all the rules are murky. And you know, I
6:09
Speaker 1: was on a panel on in Boston on UH Friday
6:14
Speaker 1: at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and uh one of
6:18
Speaker 1: the paddelists is from the NFL League Office, and we
6:22
Speaker 1: talked about betting, and she was clear, I can't bet
6:24
Speaker 1: on sports, right, That's what she said. And so every
6:28
Speaker 1: league is different. And I've got folks at the NBA
6:30
Speaker 1: who I know they don't bet on they can't bet
6:32
Speaker 1: on sports, right. So it's all interesting in murky. That
6:37
Speaker 1: was a crazy day, and I feel like the story
6:41
Speaker 1: would have had more legs and there may be more
6:44
Speaker 1: to come out, who knows, but the story would have
6:47
Speaker 1: had more legs if the next day wasn't Aaron Rodgers
6:49
Speaker 1: and the next day wasn't Russell Wilson, the next day,
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Speaker 1: as as crazy as it seems, wasn't Carson wentz Um.
6:56
Speaker 1: But look, this is going to be a thing. This
7:01
Speaker 1: is going to be a thing when betting is legal
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Speaker 1: in every state and you've got athletes with disposable income
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Speaker 1: who think they can it's not even about thinking they
7:14
Speaker 1: can find an edge. It's just what people between like
7:19
Speaker 1: one and fifty one or god knows how old are
7:22
Speaker 1: doing now, and so it's introduced to more people. It's
7:27
Speaker 1: one of the risks. And look, we're in the business.
7:30
Speaker 1: I'm obviously an advocate for the business. I want there
7:33
Speaker 1: to be a lot of sports betting. I wanted to
7:35
Speaker 1: be as accessible to as many people as possible. This
7:38
Speaker 1: is one of the things that that people are gonna
7:40
Speaker 1: have to look out for. I'm just scared of if
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Speaker 1: it if it's ever a quarterback, a referee, a coach,
7:47
Speaker 1: those are the big ones where when it was really,
7:49
Speaker 1: honestly wasn't that I didn't think it was me that
7:52
Speaker 1: big of a story. Like you said, I was kind
7:53
Speaker 1: of blown over because again I think we all sit
7:56
Speaker 1: back here and we all laughed about it, because it's
7:57
Speaker 1: like this dude has been an eighteen parlays, five team parlays.
8:01
Speaker 1: Like the day we catch a referee or Aaron Rodgers
8:04
Speaker 1: or someone betting k on the other side of whatever
8:07
Speaker 1: game they're in through a proxy or whatever, if that
8:09
Speaker 1: ever gets blown up, like that's that's the story of their's.
8:12
Speaker 1: I just think there could be more of the story
8:15
Speaker 1: because where there's smoked, there's fire, and let's be honest,
8:19
Speaker 1: his mental break whatever you wanna call it, voluntary leave
8:24
Speaker 1: was pretty out of left field and super suspicious to
8:27
Speaker 1: begin with and just kind of mysterious. And so a
8:29
Speaker 1: lot of times when you get these big things that
8:31
Speaker 1: come out later, like you go back and there ended
8:34
Speaker 1: up like was was something going on, but even before this,
8:38
Speaker 1: because the leave in itself was odd, you know, kind
8:41
Speaker 1: of like you know what happened with Gruden where we
8:43
Speaker 1: heard this like one quote about that that happened with Gruden.
8:47
Speaker 1: It was like, oh, well, that's that's kind of messed up,
8:49
Speaker 1: but like okay, like he can come back from this,
8:51
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, like it comes out
8:53
Speaker 1: after that that like all this other shop went down.
8:56
Speaker 1: We're pulling back the curtain a little bit. You're saying
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Speaker 1: whatever reporter, editor, producer is saying at every sports media
9:08
Speaker 1: entity right now, certainly what we all said at Action
9:12
Speaker 1: on Monday afternoon, You've got to frame it like responsibly,
9:16
Speaker 1: right because I think everybody in media right now has
9:20
Speaker 1: some kind of investigative reporter trying to unpack more about
9:25
Speaker 1: the Calvin Ridley story and action is no different, right,
9:28
Speaker 1: we're reporting around it. We're trying to see, like we're
9:30
Speaker 1: calling our sources and trying to see. I'm not giving
9:32
Speaker 1: away a secret here, Like is voluntary leave and taking
9:36
Speaker 1: a mental health break and the betting. Are they completely
9:40
Speaker 1: disconnected and there's nothing there? Or is there something directly related?
9:44
Speaker 1: We don't know. Nobody knows. It's irresponsible to say that
9:47
Speaker 1: there is a connection, but everyone will look at that
9:50
Speaker 1: and say, Okay, is that something to pull back? Is
9:53
Speaker 1: that something to dig into? No doubt everybody is trying
9:55
Speaker 1: to figure that out obviously. You know, it could be
9:58
Speaker 1: the opposite way around it be did something happen that
10:02
Speaker 1: just made him not want to play football anymore? You know,
10:04
Speaker 1: whatever he was going through mentally? Could could he have
10:07
Speaker 1: just kind of said fuck it if I get caught,
10:09
Speaker 1: I get caught. Who you know, Because like even when
10:11
Speaker 1: if the news first broke, like he didn't really seem
10:14
Speaker 1: to care too much. He was like, jes ye'll no,
10:16
Speaker 1: I don't have a gambling problem. I just got a
10:17
Speaker 1: year L O L. Like you didn't see him too
10:19
Speaker 1: broken up about it either. So I mean, we would
10:22
Speaker 1: love to hear from him. But you know what we're
10:24
Speaker 1: getting from him. Just it only lends fews to the
10:27
Speaker 1: fire that he's not thinking about football the same way
10:31
Speaker 1: he was a couple of years ago. I think that's fair.
10:34
Speaker 1: That is, that's a better way to frame him. There
10:37
Speaker 1: was a tweet that I saw somebody sent out the
10:40
Speaker 1: NFL's team in Miami plays in the stadium sponsored by
10:44
Speaker 1: hard Rock Casino. They take tens of millions of dollars
10:48
Speaker 1: from gambling companies. They have an investment in a company
10:52
Speaker 1: that is one of the leading data providers to gambling
10:54
Speaker 1: companies around the world, and one of the players that's
10:58
Speaker 1: on a part lay and get suspended for a year,
11:02
Speaker 1: and so there's a lot of mixed messaging going on.
11:06
Speaker 1: NFL players should not be betting on NFL games. I
11:09
Speaker 1: think we can all agree on that. But it speaks
11:12
Speaker 1: to how challenging an issue this is going to be.
11:16
Speaker 1: And look, it speaks to the way in which the
11:21
Speaker 1: view of betting has changed even in the past eighteen months.
11:25
Speaker 1: Six months ago, draft DraftKings as a business was valued
11:29
Speaker 1: at twenty six billion dollars. Today it's valued at seven.
11:34
Speaker 1: The market, the frothiness of the market is changing dramatically
11:38
Speaker 1: every single day, but the way that investors are looking
11:43
Speaker 1: at sports betting generally is changing every day, and so
11:46
Speaker 1: it's not just going to be Okay, here's a billion
11:49
Speaker 1: dollar opportunity for everybody to cash in on. It's more like, Okay,
11:53
Speaker 1: what is this really? What does this business really mean?
11:56
Speaker 1: What is it? How are we capitalizing on it? How
11:58
Speaker 1: are we protecting the players from it? How are people
12:00
Speaker 1: engaging with it? We're entering that everyone always likes to
12:03
Speaker 1: say we're in the first inning of sports betting. I
12:05
Speaker 1: feel like we're probably entering the second and third inning,
12:08
Speaker 1: and the middle innings are always the hardest. Yeah, all right,
12:12
Speaker 1: let's get to it, because people do want to know.
12:16
Speaker 1: Here's the irony. People do want to know what the
12:19
Speaker 1: fund Do I better? Right now? What do I do
12:21
Speaker 1: with all the information that's happening? Forget about all the controversy.
12:24
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is staying with the Packers, Russell Wilson go
12:27
Speaker 1: to the Broncos. Carson Wentz getting traded to Washington. Let's
12:31
Speaker 1: start with Carson Wentz. That was an interesting move. It
12:34
Speaker 1: most books, Washington Commanders were sixty two one before the trade.
12:39
Speaker 1: They were sixty to one after the trade. One book
12:42
Speaker 1: moved it down to seventy to one. We all laughed
12:45
Speaker 1: about it. Raybon, you actually had really good thoughts on
12:48
Speaker 1: why that might be the case, you know, and it
12:50
Speaker 1: was win bet. I believe that that moved the odds down,
12:52
Speaker 1: But I don't believe it was you know, they were
12:54
Speaker 1: trolling or anything. I just think when you're making these odds,
12:57
Speaker 1: you're factoring in, Okay, they have cat space, they have assets.
13:01
Speaker 1: What can they do with this? You know what quarterbacks
13:03
Speaker 1: are on the market, who can they potentially acquire? And
13:05
Speaker 1: knew they were in the market for a quarterback, So
13:08
Speaker 1: I just think, you know, Carson Wentz versus you know,
13:10
Speaker 1: maybe a Deshaun Watson, maybe uh, having those draft picks,
13:14
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo who was rumored to them, Russell Wilson at
13:19
Speaker 1: a time was a potential option. Even so, I just think,
13:22
Speaker 1: you know, they're factoring all those things in. And now
13:24
Speaker 1: that we know it's Carson Wentz and we know that
13:27
Speaker 1: they're paying him all this money, and we know that
13:30
Speaker 1: they gave up, uh, you know, some some picks for them.
13:33
Speaker 1: Now it's like, okay, well now they're not as in
13:36
Speaker 1: not as a good a position, uh as it could
13:39
Speaker 1: have been potentially if things had broken a little bit differently.
13:43
Speaker 1: Raybon just recorded a two part NFL Free Agency pod
13:49
Speaker 1: on the Action Network channel. Action Network Podcast. It is
13:53
Speaker 1: all about your betting guy, the NFL Free Agency, in
13:55
Speaker 1: which you went through every single team discussing cap space
14:00
Speaker 1: potential free agents. So you have never been more prepped
14:03
Speaker 1: to come on this pod and hand it. Hand it
14:07
Speaker 1: to Simon. Hunter's not a competition, chea. We're just trying
14:11
Speaker 1: to give the people out here and what they want.
14:14
Speaker 1: Everything is a competition. Okay, well, look like but here's
14:21
Speaker 1: the point, Simon. Do you want to weigh in on
14:22
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz and Washington and Washington commanders. Yeah, I mean
14:26
Speaker 1: I'm pretty much right there with Chris. I look at
14:28
Speaker 1: it though. It's it's great for Carson. It's his last opportunity,
14:31
Speaker 1: this is it. So yeah, I might think it's a
14:33
Speaker 1: dumb move and they're paying him a lot, way too
14:35
Speaker 1: much money. At the same time, who the hell have
14:37
Speaker 1: Washington has their quarterback in the last twenty years. Nobody,
14:40
Speaker 1: So if Carson come in, they can spark something there.
14:43
Speaker 1: He's playing his former team twice a year back in
14:45
Speaker 1: his old division. I like to move for a one year,
14:49
Speaker 1: you know, burner quarterback. Because it's just an often organization.
14:52
Speaker 1: We've talked all the time. They're just their ownerships trash.
14:55
Speaker 1: Their fan base is given up on the ownership. They're
14:58
Speaker 1: one of the worst stadiums and all footballs and Eagles
15:00
Speaker 1: fan we go there and we take over it whenever
15:02
Speaker 1: we play them. So it's it's rough times right now
15:05
Speaker 1: for watching him. But as much as I want to
15:07
Speaker 1: laugh and make fun of this move, I don't hate it.
15:10
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just like they're they're they're they're getting
15:12
Speaker 1: a guy who has tremendous upside. We've all seen these
15:15
Speaker 1: moments are brilliance, but he just mentally isn't there. So
15:18
Speaker 1: maybe they think they can change that. But to me,
15:20
Speaker 1: I just think it's a waste of a year as
15:22
Speaker 1: an organization because there's just nothing there for me. I
15:25
Speaker 1: think it's tough also going because this is a great
15:27
Speaker 1: fan base, Like it's a great fan base. They know
15:29
Speaker 1: they deserve better, but it's also a tough place to go.
15:33
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, the fans are gonna be on
15:35
Speaker 1: you out here in Washington. I just don't think Carson's
15:38
Speaker 1: built for I mean, I watched the Hard Knocks with
15:40
Speaker 1: the Colts. I got to see him up close, and
15:42
Speaker 1: you know, they've been showing us every quarterback every year
15:44
Speaker 1: that's on that hard knocks and you kind of get
15:46
Speaker 1: to see, you know, the level of leadership that's there.
15:49
Speaker 1: And Carson to me, just didn't feel like a quarterback
15:52
Speaker 1: right Like they're highlighting him and they're following him home
15:54
Speaker 1: and they're showing him practice and showing him at meetings.
15:57
Speaker 1: He just seemed like another linement or something like, you know,
16:00
Speaker 1: he just didn't have the personality of a leader. And
16:02
Speaker 1: there's actually an article that came out from Zach Keeper
16:05
Speaker 1: at the Athletic that essentially said that since he walked
16:08
Speaker 1: in at door in Indianapolis, um, they essentially people within
16:12
Speaker 1: the organization knew it wasn't gonna work out and and
16:15
Speaker 1: it came down to his leadership skills. And so I mean,
16:18
Speaker 1: he's a marginal upgrade um on on what they had
16:22
Speaker 1: last year. I think he can throw the deep ball
16:23
Speaker 1: better um than what they had, and that will help
16:26
Speaker 1: Terry mclauren. But uh, ultimately, I just don't think it
16:29
Speaker 1: moves the needle. And I think, you know, having to
16:31
Speaker 1: play Philly twice a year that's gonna be tough. I
16:34
Speaker 1: just I just don't think he's built for Unfortunately, UM,
16:38
Speaker 1: I do want to. I want you guys both to
16:40
Speaker 1: dig in on, like where you're finding the best value now. Like, Simon,
16:46
Speaker 1: you and I talked about this about a month ago,
16:48
Speaker 1: and at the time you were all over the Falcons,
16:50
Speaker 1: you were all over the Ravens, and like, I want
16:52
Speaker 1: to get an update now that we've seen some real
16:55
Speaker 1: things start to change. But before we do that, Uh,
17:00
Speaker 1: let's let's examine in addition to Washington and Wins, let's
17:04
Speaker 1: talk about Rogers. Let's talk about him saying he's going
17:08
Speaker 1: back to Green Bay. Let's talk about what that gives
17:10
Speaker 1: them for cap space and how does that position them
17:14
Speaker 1: in an NFC where quarterbacking is kind of at a premium.
17:19
Speaker 1: Right now, Simon, you go first. Right now. By the way,
17:22
Speaker 1: the package are seven and a half to want to
17:24
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. I'm fan duel. That is the
17:27
Speaker 1: second shortest odds after the Buffalo Bills at seven to one. Yeah,
17:31
Speaker 1: so people, and listen to show I know I don't
17:32
Speaker 1: ever be at a future under twenty one, especially this
17:34
Speaker 1: time of year. It's just rather invest my money and
17:37
Speaker 1: do other stuff with it. Then let us sports book
17:38
Speaker 1: hold it for nine months. So my advice to people
17:41
Speaker 1: is unless it's over twenty to one, I just wouldn't
17:44
Speaker 1: make the bet Green Bay. That's an awful bet. I mean,
17:47
Speaker 1: excuse me. People last year gave a ship at this
17:49
Speaker 1: time here because I said it was the stupidest bay
17:51
Speaker 1: you'd ever make, bet on the Chiefs in Tampa Bay,
17:54
Speaker 1: and my genius, No, it's just like you're buying on
17:56
Speaker 1: an inflated line. You're literally buying. Like we talked all
17:59
Speaker 1: about time about stock market, you're buying at the peak
18:02
Speaker 1: and you're waiting to cash in in a long time
18:05
Speaker 1: where you want to invest in the long shots that
18:07
Speaker 1: maybe you can hedge out of do whatever later on.
18:10
Speaker 1: And when I just look at that Green Bay line,
18:12
Speaker 1: it's just no value, like seven oh one. Yeah, there
18:14
Speaker 1: might be three good quarterbacks NFC, so maybe that's why
18:17
Speaker 1: it's so low. But man, every year Rogers chokes and
18:21
Speaker 1: then and at home, either on the road, at home,
18:23
Speaker 1: whatever game it is in the playoffs. We've just seen
18:26
Speaker 1: it time and time again that he just chokes. So
18:28
Speaker 1: to me, I just would not put the investment. If
18:30
Speaker 1: you if you want to bet him, just bet him
18:32
Speaker 1: straight when you get to those games. But I would
18:34
Speaker 1: not let us sports book hold my money for over
18:36
Speaker 1: a year on an investment of Aaron Rodgers, who we've
18:39
Speaker 1: just seen the time and time again. He just does
18:40
Speaker 1: not do it in the playoffs, right man. I gotta
18:43
Speaker 1: think you agree there absolutely. I mean, this team is
18:48
Speaker 1: perennially overvalued in terms of your Super Bowl eyes, and
18:52
Speaker 1: I think Simon brings up a good point. So like also,
18:55
Speaker 1: and it's I think it's partly our fault too, because
18:57
Speaker 1: we kind of feed into it. But like, here's other
19:00
Speaker 1: odds you can bet besides just Super Bowl odds to like,
19:03
Speaker 1: like if you want a better edge, Like, there are
19:06
Speaker 1: edges to be had this time a year better, you know,
19:08
Speaker 1: depending on cap space and things like that. Obviously, it's
19:12
Speaker 1: you're still going to run into the same issue. You
19:14
Speaker 1: know your BET's not gonna cash for a long time.
19:16
Speaker 1: But like, you know, books have conference winner odds posted,
19:19
Speaker 1: they have division winner odds posted, Like, there are other
19:21
Speaker 1: edges besides taking a one in thirty two. You know
19:25
Speaker 1: a thing that's gonna happen to one team out of
19:27
Speaker 1: the thirty two, you know that that you could still
19:29
Speaker 1: have some pretty good odds on but yeah, the Packers
19:32
Speaker 1: are way over Valley because this, uh, you know, whatever
19:36
Speaker 1: the Rodgers deal is gonna be, you know, they're gonna
19:38
Speaker 1: have the weast cap space in the league and by
19:42
Speaker 1: a significant margin now, so they're gonna have to make
19:44
Speaker 1: some moves and shift some things around or restructure guys.
19:48
Speaker 1: But you might see some cap casualties uh there as well.
19:52
Speaker 1: I mean both of the Smiths, um they could save
19:54
Speaker 1: over twelve million dollars releasing both Preston and Darius each.
19:59
Speaker 1: So I mean that's you know, is that on the table?
20:01
Speaker 1: Who knows. But there's a good chance this team might
20:04
Speaker 1: not even be as good as it was last year.
20:07
Speaker 1: Remember they got the one seed last year. Um, you
20:10
Speaker 1: know the guys like Russell Douglas, who you know, are
20:13
Speaker 1: they gonna be able to bring him back? Probably not.
20:15
Speaker 1: You know, guys like that, they were able to kind
20:17
Speaker 1: of get you know, get lucky and kind of go
20:19
Speaker 1: on a run there and they you know, they hold
20:22
Speaker 1: their defense steps up and holds the forty Niners to
20:25
Speaker 1: six points in a playoff game and they lose because
20:28
Speaker 1: they give it up on special teams. So you know,
20:31
Speaker 1: are they. I don't think they're gonna be better this
20:33
Speaker 1: year than last. Now Tom Brady is not in the
20:35
Speaker 1: conference anymore, so that helps. But I mean, my goodness
20:38
Speaker 1: is you know, if you're betting Packers Super Bowl futures,
20:40
Speaker 1: that's a terrible bet. Just wait till the Packers play
20:43
Speaker 1: their home games and bet on them to cover the spread.
20:46
Speaker 1: They're like one of the only favorites that covers at
20:48
Speaker 1: home consistently. So just do it like that with Aaron Rodgers, Like,
20:52
Speaker 1: there's no reason to to bet them to win the
20:54
Speaker 1: Super Bowl right now, by the way, we think Tom
20:57
Speaker 1: Brady it's gonna be playing right and the kind we
21:01
Speaker 1: don't know that yet. We don't know that yet, which
21:04
Speaker 1: could give you reason that you might want to get
21:07
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine at thirteen to one. But
21:10
Speaker 1: let's talk about Russell Wilson. The team right ahead of
21:13
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty niners at one are the Denver
21:17
Speaker 1: Broncos at twelve to one. They shout up as well,
21:21
Speaker 1: that was a team that a lot of people might
21:24
Speaker 1: have backed into buying them because they thought that's where
21:26
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers was going to go. Trying to handicap the
21:29
Speaker 1: moves they end up getting. Russell Wilson, I don't hate
21:34
Speaker 1: I know you don't like to do anything under the
21:36
Speaker 1: under twenty one, but like the Broncos at twelve to one,
21:40
Speaker 1: it's not terrible. Yeah. Again, I would just pass on
21:43
Speaker 1: it because, like you just said, it's I just don't
21:45
Speaker 1: like investment in things like where you think that's good
21:48
Speaker 1: value right now, just wait until the playoffs where they
21:51
Speaker 1: might be a five or six seed like the four
21:53
Speaker 1: Niners were last year. We got them at twenty to
21:55
Speaker 1: one heading into the playoffs, where at this time last
21:57
Speaker 1: year were twelve to one, and I just that's my
22:00
Speaker 1: whole point. It's like you can invest your money now
22:02
Speaker 1: and something else, come back later and take that money
22:05
Speaker 1: and then put on these futures. So um, I'm looking
22:08
Speaker 1: at Denver as I feel like Chris will be the
22:10
Speaker 1: same page here with me. It's like I'm gonna use
22:13
Speaker 1: their value being the shiny new toy and maybe get
22:15
Speaker 1: better odds on the Chargers or the Chiefs and the
22:17
Speaker 1: Chargers that that's probably where I'm gonna go with my money,
22:20
Speaker 1: because I do think Brandon Stanley is gonna learn from
22:23
Speaker 1: his mistakes last year of you do. I love the
22:25
Speaker 1: I love the aggressiveness, but there are times you just
22:28
Speaker 1: take the three. It's like, mathematically, if it's two seconds
22:32
Speaker 1: left before half ends, you take the three. There there,
22:35
Speaker 1: it's not filth position game there, it doesn't matter if
22:37
Speaker 1: you get the seven or the three. So I'm I'm
22:39
Speaker 1: one of those where I'm gonna bank on the Chargers
22:41
Speaker 1: being better this year. That more they have more cap space,
22:44
Speaker 1: don't improve. While everyone's talking about Denver, everyone's gonna talking
22:47
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs. You can find value probably on the Chargers.
22:49
Speaker 1: So that's where I'm gonna put my money when I'm
22:51
Speaker 1: looking at this Denver thing. Ray Bun, you got so
22:53
Speaker 1: excited when he said that. Yeah, that's what kind of
22:56
Speaker 1: stood out to me. And we talked about this yesterday
22:59
Speaker 1: as well. Um, you know, the Chargers now are the
23:04
Speaker 1: third in third place in terms of the odds to
23:07
Speaker 1: win a division. Uh there plus there four to one
23:10
Speaker 1: to win the division. They are twenty five to one
23:15
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. And I you know, I
23:18
Speaker 1: just think those odds, you know, like that's one of
23:20
Speaker 1: those twenty two one odds that you say, Okay, this
23:22
Speaker 1: could work because guess what you have a quarterback. You
23:25
Speaker 1: have a quarter and not just a quarterback, you have
23:27
Speaker 1: a quarterback on his rookie contract. When did that work
23:30
Speaker 1: out in the past? Oh right, it worked out last year,
23:33
Speaker 1: um with the Bengals at least getting And it's also
23:35
Speaker 1: I say, you don't only have to do Super Bowl futures.
23:38
Speaker 1: You know, you could do a conference future the Charges
23:40
Speaker 1: of fourteen to one. That's pretty good odds even for
23:42
Speaker 1: you know, to win the a f C. And not
23:45
Speaker 1: only that, but the Chargers are top five in cap
23:48
Speaker 1: space and they play in Los Angeles, so they're gonna
23:52
Speaker 1: be an attractive destination for a variety of reasons. And
23:56
Speaker 1: a lot of people thought even last year that this
23:57
Speaker 1: team had enough to make a deep run. So it's like,
24:00
Speaker 1: now you got over forty million in cap space, you
24:02
Speaker 1: got a quarterback on his rookie deal. Yes, it's an
24:05
Speaker 1: extremely competitive division, but uh, there's no reason that the
24:09
Speaker 1: Chargers can't be that team that you know, you know,
24:12
Speaker 1: wins just as many games as the Chiefs and Broncos
24:15
Speaker 1: and kind of you know that you know, sneaks into
24:16
Speaker 1: the playoffs or whatever not. So I just think that
24:20
Speaker 1: the Charges are are a great way to kind of
24:22
Speaker 1: take advantage of Russell Wilson going to the Broncos because obviously,
24:27
Speaker 1: you know that's the market is all over that their
24:29
Speaker 1: odds are skyrocketing. I think they're in a great spot.
24:32
Speaker 1: I mean, I think they were a quarterback away and um,
24:35
Speaker 1: they're gonna be They're gonna be right there this year.
24:38
Speaker 1: But uh, the charges are really from a betting perspective.
24:41
Speaker 1: That's how you bet at this time of year, Like
24:44
Speaker 1: you know, like that that's the value, that's that's where
24:46
Speaker 1: you gotta go. You've said this a couple of times.
24:49
Speaker 1: I want you to explain it to people. A QB
24:52
Speaker 1: on a rookie deal, what's the significance of that? I mean,
24:56
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins right now, for example, I just put it
24:58
Speaker 1: this way, Kirk Cousin is going to take up a
25:01
Speaker 1: Viking salary cap this year. Uh, Carson Wentz is gonna
25:06
Speaker 1: get like something like twenty eight million dollars this year.
25:08
Speaker 1: Like the quarterbacks, even average quarterbacks are just drastically overpaid,
25:16
Speaker 1: um because they're still you know, or maybe it's not overpaid,
25:20
Speaker 1: but they just cost so much money. So having a
25:24
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback that is good. He's got to be good. Obviously,
25:27
Speaker 1: Herbert is Burrow is um on his rookie deal. There's
25:31
Speaker 1: there's just um kind of a captain place to where
25:34
Speaker 1: you know, you can only get so much money and
25:36
Speaker 1: so there you're just getting ridiculous value. Um. Even if
25:39
Speaker 1: look at a team like the Seahawks, how did we
25:41
Speaker 1: get here? How do we get to the point where
25:43
Speaker 1: they're blowing everything up and moving on from Russell Wilson? Well,
25:47
Speaker 1: you know their their height of the Seahawks. Everyone talks
25:50
Speaker 1: about the legion of Boom. Well, yeah, it was the
25:52
Speaker 1: legion of Boom. And the fact that they had Russell
25:54
Speaker 1: Wilson playing on a rookie deal, right, and then once
25:57
Speaker 1: they had to pay Russ, then everything around out on
26:00
Speaker 1: him went downhill and eventually he just couldn't, you know,
26:03
Speaker 1: carry that burden anymore and it just didn't work. And
26:07
Speaker 1: and that's kind of where that's kind of why that
26:09
Speaker 1: rookie window is so important. So I love the Charges
26:12
Speaker 1: because of that, and then because of the fact that
26:15
Speaker 1: the Broncos now are are kind of pushing the Chargers
26:18
Speaker 1: odds down a little bit. You know, I get it's
26:20
Speaker 1: all correlated, so it makes sense. But that's where the
26:23
Speaker 1: value is Oh and by the way, talk about twenty
26:26
Speaker 1: one or better Cincinnati Bengals to one to win the
26:30
Speaker 1: Super Bowl this season and the Cincinnati Bengals because they
26:35
Speaker 1: have Burrow on that rookie deal. Uh, they have the
26:40
Speaker 1: seventh most cap space heading in the free agency so
26:44
Speaker 1: like no one's talking about that. Like the Bengals got
26:46
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl, probably should have won it, and
26:50
Speaker 1: they have the seventh most cap space. So yeah, Bengals
26:52
Speaker 1: and Chargers, like those are two teams. That's it for me,
26:55
Speaker 1: Like that's those are teams that I think that if
26:57
Speaker 1: you're making a bet in March in the NFL, because
27:00
Speaker 1: you're you just you just gotta get something down here.
27:03
Speaker 1: That's where you gotta go. Simon, I know you feel
27:07
Speaker 1: differently about the Bengals. Me and christ we were doing
27:11
Speaker 1: so well this whole show. I hate the Bengals. Next year,
27:15
Speaker 1: I'm gonna paid them all season literally, going from an
27:19
Speaker 1: injured Brown's team to a healthy Browns team and injured
27:21
Speaker 1: Ravens team to a healthy Ravens team. Yeah, maybe they'll
27:24
Speaker 1: get another walk through with Pittsburgh like they dominate him
27:27
Speaker 1: this past year. But I just can't deal with I'm
27:29
Speaker 1: looking at the Bengals team that his first season he
27:31
Speaker 1: tores knee up. His second season he partially towards knee up.
27:35
Speaker 1: Historically cheap owner who does not spend the money, So
27:38
Speaker 1: we could be sitting here they only spent twenty million
27:40
Speaker 1: of that cat they have because they notoriously have a
27:42
Speaker 1: cheap owner. I just the Bengals reek of a fluke
27:46
Speaker 1: where it's like Joe Burrow. That was Leary, He's incredible.
27:49
Speaker 1: They're all their playoff wins. The Raiders, that was pretty flukey.
27:53
Speaker 1: They almost lost Derek Carr on that fourth down Tennessee Titans.
27:57
Speaker 1: They should have lost that game a thousand times older
27:59
Speaker 1: say with the Yeves the Rams one again, I'm with
28:02
Speaker 1: you on that. I thought the Rams were choking in
28:03
Speaker 1: that Bro hadn't partially torn his MCL, they would have
28:07
Speaker 1: won that game going away. They literally were dominating that
28:09
Speaker 1: ramp defense. As soon as he got hurt, he kind
28:12
Speaker 1: of could have moved in the pocket. That's how they
28:13
Speaker 1: lost the Rams game. But I just I'm so off
28:16
Speaker 1: the Bengals, and I hear what you're saying though, like
28:18
Speaker 1: the rookie deal, I'm just I look at it. They
28:21
Speaker 1: had the opportunity this past year, and now they'll just
28:23
Speaker 1: fade away the distant memory like it was always gonna
28:25
Speaker 1: be good, but they just can't go on that run again.
28:28
Speaker 1: I feel like you're still salty from from losing all
28:30
Speaker 1: those Bengals bets in the playoffs. Man, I think you gotta.
28:33
Speaker 1: I think you're just you're betting with your heart here,
28:35
Speaker 1: because like you gotta look at it afford the super Bowl.
28:40
Speaker 1: We know, we know no, but like seriously, I just
28:43
Speaker 1: think you got look at objective we go. It's like, yeah,
28:46
Speaker 1: most of the time you take a team coming off
28:48
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl win or loss, and they're gonna be
28:50
Speaker 1: over value the next year. But now you're taking a
28:53
Speaker 1: team that has a quarterback on his rookie deal that
28:56
Speaker 1: made the super Bowl and that twenty two to one
29:00
Speaker 1: with you know this, you know, the top eight cap space,
29:03
Speaker 1: Like that's just a good situation to invest in, Like
29:07
Speaker 1: in my opinion, like that doesn't come along most years,
29:11
Speaker 1: Like and they don't have to spend all their cap
29:13
Speaker 1: space realistically, you know you could, especially the way things
29:17
Speaker 1: are offensive lineman and you know, we just saw a
29:19
Speaker 1: couple of decent offensive lineman be released. Um, you know
29:22
Speaker 1: heading into free agency. I mean, you can get a
29:25
Speaker 1: couple of guards, you know, for for cheap on you know,
29:28
Speaker 1: one two year deal. Like their window is now. They
29:30
Speaker 1: don't have to sign these like massive offensive line contracts.
29:34
Speaker 1: They don't even need like a Toronto Armstead to be
29:37
Speaker 1: like you know, they just gotta sign you know, maybe
29:39
Speaker 1: a couple of interior a lignement um in a in
29:42
Speaker 1: a right tackle. And I mean that's gonna be such
29:45
Speaker 1: a massive upgrade to what they had last year. I
29:49
Speaker 1: just think I just think it's a smart play because again,
29:51
Speaker 1: I mean it's satisfies your criteria. It's greater than twenty
29:55
Speaker 1: one quarterback on rookie deal. Like that's just I mean,
29:58
Speaker 1: like they're right there with a charge, Like I don't
30:00
Speaker 1: see much difference between them and the Charge. I think
30:02
Speaker 1: both of them are in that same boat. They're similar
30:04
Speaker 1: quality teams. Yes the Chiefs are better, Yes the Bills
30:07
Speaker 1: are better, but they're in the running. They're telling you
30:10
Speaker 1: something that let's start. I love about sports books that
30:12
Speaker 1: give you a little secrets. And they are the third
30:15
Speaker 1: highest pet team across the board for Super Bowl futures,
30:18
Speaker 1: and the Rods have dropped, so there's obviously when they're
30:21
Speaker 1: like you just said, there's smoke, there's fire, there's someone
30:23
Speaker 1: knows something. Because it's interesting their odds have dropped even
30:27
Speaker 1: though people have been betting them heavily ever since the
30:30
Speaker 1: end of the Super Bowl. Hey, I mean books are
30:32
Speaker 1: only so sharp. I mean, Chad just told you, Chad
30:34
Speaker 1: just told you Draft king Stock Like it's just you know,
30:38
Speaker 1: plummeted over the past year. Not you know, nothing against them,
30:41
Speaker 1: you know, but you know it's just like listen, man,
30:44
Speaker 1: I tracked all a sharp action and all this stuff
30:47
Speaker 1: like sharps are overrated, books are overrated. At the end
30:50
Speaker 1: of the day, you just gotta make you know, smart
30:53
Speaker 1: bets where you see value like and I just think
30:57
Speaker 1: I just think there's nothing that different between a bank
31:00
Speaker 1: was in the charges, given the quarterback situation, given the
31:03
Speaker 1: cap situation, um and given the roster situation. I just
31:06
Speaker 1: think they're they're quality teams with quarterbacks on rookie deals.
31:10
Speaker 1: Who have you know, long odds that you could put,
31:13
Speaker 1: like you said, you could like at worst case scenario,
31:16
Speaker 1: right like they probably get into the playoffs and like
31:18
Speaker 1: you said, you can hedge it out. So I just
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33:02
Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. You know, there's a couple other
33:08
Speaker 1: teams that fit the criteria. You guys are talking about
33:13
Speaker 1: teams with starting quarterbacks who have shown greatness or potential
33:18
Speaker 1: for greatness, or have had some kind of success, who
33:21
Speaker 1: are on rookie deals. And what's remarkable is none of
33:25
Speaker 1: these teams are amongst the top teams with the shortest
33:29
Speaker 1: odds bills not you know, cap space, Yeah, and they're
33:35
Speaker 1: all they're all their cap spaces not half spaces. Is
33:39
Speaker 1: Packers not on a rookie deal, bad cap space Chiefs
33:42
Speaker 1: not on a rookie deal. Rams not on a rookie deal.
33:45
Speaker 1: They're always trying to maneuver for cap space because they're
33:48
Speaker 1: just trading away picks to get star players. Broncos now
33:51
Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson. UM, Niners, Cowboys then come Ravens. Niners
33:59
Speaker 1: are interesting to wait before you go on. Just the
34:02
Speaker 1: Niners right now are over the cap. But if they
34:07
Speaker 1: trade Jimmy Garoppolo, that clears up about twenty six million
34:09
Speaker 1: cap space. That puts them above above average, in the
34:14
Speaker 1: top half of the league in terms of cap space,
34:17
Speaker 1: And they would have a quarterback on the rookie deal.
34:20
Speaker 1: And pretty much every quarterback they've put out there has
34:24
Speaker 1: like performed average or above average, like even beth Third
34:28
Speaker 1: and Mowens had. Like I saw a tweet that uh
34:32
Speaker 1: like leaders in I think it was yards per attempt
34:35
Speaker 1: since and like Bethard and Mullens were in the top
34:39
Speaker 1: half of the league along with Jimmy g who was
34:41
Speaker 1: numbered two, so like the Niners would quickly kind of
34:45
Speaker 1: ascend into that same conversation. Um, it's just that Trey
34:50
Speaker 1: Lance still has a lot to prove. I think it
34:52
Speaker 1: is more the issue there. It's like, whereas Herbert and
34:54
Speaker 1: Burrow have kind of proven themselves to a degree already.
34:58
Speaker 1: Um well, Lance hasn't, but they would kind of be
35:00
Speaker 1: that other team that's there. But their odds also reflect that. Yeah.
35:05
Speaker 1: I also, to me, I'm sort of slimming down the
35:09
Speaker 1: categorization two quarterbacks on the rookie contract who have actually
35:12
Speaker 1: succeeded at some level, right, and so in the NFL,
35:16
Speaker 1: Trey Lance hasn't done that yet. So to me, the
35:20
Speaker 1: Niners are not sort of befitting of your money because
35:25
Speaker 1: he hasn't done anything, and their odds are too short
35:27
Speaker 1: and they're over time. That's the Tom Brady effect. Like
35:31
Speaker 1: people like me, I put a dime on them just
35:32
Speaker 1: because just in case Tom goes there. Like I know
35:35
Speaker 1: it's a long shot, but I mean, holy hell, dude,
35:38
Speaker 1: if they got Tom Brady with that defense, that all offense,
35:41
Speaker 1: that'd be crazy. Can I get to my point please?
35:46
Speaker 1: My point is this, the Ravens, the Patriots, Matt Jones,
35:56
Speaker 1: Belichick being active in free agency, the Eagles one and
36:03
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put it out there. I'm gonna put it
36:06
Speaker 1: out there, Okay, Chicago Bears eight one? Justin fields not crazy,
36:16
Speaker 1: it's not it's not crazy. But let's talk about specifically
36:22
Speaker 1: the Pats and the Ravens, because I think those are
36:24
Speaker 1: more realistic given the parameters that we're talking about. Lamar
36:27
Speaker 1: Jackson in the last year of his rookie deal, simon,
36:30
Speaker 1: you go first on the Ravens. Yeah, that's my that's
36:32
Speaker 1: my shortest future ads I did. I just did the
36:34
Speaker 1: Ravens and simple fact that they were so injury, so
36:37
Speaker 1: many injuries last year. We know they'll come back, they'll
36:40
Speaker 1: be better. Yeah, they're playing against the easy schedule just
36:43
Speaker 1: because they came in last place or second to last
36:45
Speaker 1: in that division. It's like we talk, we talk every year.
36:48
Speaker 1: That's that's a big deal. Like who you're playing week
36:51
Speaker 1: the week. If you come in first, all of a
36:52
Speaker 1: sudden again you come in first place like the Bengals did.
36:56
Speaker 1: That's a first place schedule. That's tough to get the
36:58
Speaker 1: same type of seating or the same type of win
37:00
Speaker 1: to get that seed. And so I'm just purely value
37:03
Speaker 1: play off the Ravens. It's like I'm with people. I
37:06
Speaker 1: don't know how I feel about Lamar. I don't know
37:08
Speaker 1: I feel if I was a Ravens fan about paying Lamar.
37:10
Speaker 1: But to me, it's the guy who was an m
37:12
Speaker 1: v P at one point, we know is athletic talent,
37:14
Speaker 1: we know how good he is in the football field,
37:16
Speaker 1: he's healthy, They're completely different team. And no team had
37:20
Speaker 1: fewer losses by like a smaller margin last season than
37:23
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Like they're one of those teams that you
37:25
Speaker 1: literally flip a coin last year and they could have
37:27
Speaker 1: been the one seed if they had just flipped a
37:29
Speaker 1: lot of those one score games. So I definitely like
37:31
Speaker 1: the Ravens the bounce back candidate this year. Um Patriots,
37:35
Speaker 1: no oral read on him, honestie, I don't. I like
37:38
Speaker 1: what Mac did last year. We saw him hit that
37:40
Speaker 1: rookie wall. He kind of fell apart later in the season,
37:43
Speaker 1: and then they went to the they went up to
37:45
Speaker 1: Buffalo and Josh Allen played a perfect game. So it's like, Patriots,
37:49
Speaker 1: they're not as bad as they looked in the playoff games,
37:51
Speaker 1: but are they as good as they looked throughout the
37:52
Speaker 1: season last year? I don't. I don't really know what
37:54
Speaker 1: to do with them yet, because again it's the Belichick effect.
37:56
Speaker 1: It's like I want to fade them, but it's Belichick.
37:59
Speaker 1: I'm terrified of fading the greatest coaching football. So I'm
38:03
Speaker 1: I'm probably not gonna touch their odds, but I definitely
38:06
Speaker 1: will be one of those people back in the Ravens
38:08
Speaker 1: for a lot of next season. Yeah, I like the
38:12
Speaker 1: Ravens more than the Patriots. Uh Like, I just think
38:15
Speaker 1: the Patriots have they have a high floor, you know,
38:18
Speaker 1: a Pelichick's never gonna let them go like completely in
38:22
Speaker 1: the tank. Uh. And I think Matt Jones is kind
38:24
Speaker 1: of the same way. He's a higher floor quarterback. But
38:27
Speaker 1: at least I didn't see anything to suggest he's like
38:30
Speaker 1: he's got that Borrow ceiling. He's got that and and
38:33
Speaker 1: part of it is I mean, you know, the receiving
38:34
Speaker 1: cords drastically different. But I mean I just don't see
38:38
Speaker 1: Matt Jones throwing for like, you know, four hundreds something
38:42
Speaker 1: yards and and completely changing the game the way a
38:44
Speaker 1: guy like Burrow can or or Justin Herbert can. Um.
38:48
Speaker 1: So you know, the Ravens we've and the Ravens just
38:51
Speaker 1: have all these intangibles. I mean, Harbor has done a
38:53
Speaker 1: great job. They're gonna, as Simon says, they're gonna get
38:56
Speaker 1: healthier on defense. So oh, those two teams definitely the
39:00
Speaker 1: Ravens for me. I think they're another one. But you know,
39:02
Speaker 1: even saying that just to go not to be the
39:04
Speaker 1: dead horse. But it's like both of the Ravens and
39:06
Speaker 1: the Bengals have equal Super Bowl odds, and you forget
39:10
Speaker 1: what you think about the Rosters and and all that
39:13
Speaker 1: and what happened last year, just but just going completely
39:15
Speaker 1: on cap spaces, which is what we're kind of looking
39:17
Speaker 1: at heading in the free agency, you know, saying a
39:19
Speaker 1: lot of these teams are kind of questered together behind
39:22
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Bills. The Bengals have about thirty
39:27
Speaker 1: five million in caps space, the Chargers have forty two million,
39:31
Speaker 1: the Ravens have about sixteen, and the Patriots have about thirteen.
39:34
Speaker 1: So you just see the drastic differences, you know, and
39:38
Speaker 1: yet these teams are kind of qustered together. But you
39:41
Speaker 1: just see the upside were for the teams like the
39:44
Speaker 1: Bengals and Charges whereas like they're in this window now
39:47
Speaker 1: and they could get better now, uh, you know, to
39:51
Speaker 1: a greater degree than I think the Ravens uh and
39:54
Speaker 1: the Patriots can um just because of that drastic difference.
39:57
Speaker 1: So I just want to put that into some into
39:59
Speaker 1: some context. How much do you Raybon, you guys do
40:02
Speaker 1: these two part podcasts and you're thinking about cap space
40:05
Speaker 1: and free agency and all this stuff, and you're incredibly
40:08
Speaker 1: well informed today, and so that's impressive. Uh, how much
40:11
Speaker 1: are you thinking about draft positioning holes that can be
40:15
Speaker 1: filled in the draft and where the opportunities down the
40:18
Speaker 1: future's board, whether it's Super Bowl as you point out
40:21
Speaker 1: that you don't have to the bet. Super Bowl could be,
40:22
Speaker 1: Division could be Conference. Are there teams that sort of
40:26
Speaker 1: in that twenty one range and below that you look
40:29
Speaker 1: at and say, if they get the right draft position,
40:32
Speaker 1: the right player, that's sneaky and we should go get
40:36
Speaker 1: them now. No, I don't really because for two reasons.
40:40
Speaker 1: Number One, the draft is I mean obviously, if you
40:43
Speaker 1: just you know, have like your team is good of picks,
40:46
Speaker 1: I think that's that could be an issue if you're
40:47
Speaker 1: not like in a win now window. But like, look
40:49
Speaker 1: at the Rams, they've been five, the Broncos. You know,
40:51
Speaker 1: they gave a boatload of picks, but look at their team,
40:53
Speaker 1: like they should be good. But it's just it's kind
40:56
Speaker 1: of goes back to like when you're betting during the
40:58
Speaker 1: season and like somebody gets hurt and it's like, Okay,
41:00
Speaker 1: how much is he worth to the spread? Like we
41:02
Speaker 1: know the only player is really worth anything of substantial
41:06
Speaker 1: to the spread or quarterback, so that that kind of
41:08
Speaker 1: feeds into their odds in terms you just extrapolating that
41:12
Speaker 1: in terms of their futures odds, and so no one
41:14
Speaker 1: player or even group of players is really gonna change
41:17
Speaker 1: things to that degree. I mean, yes, Jamar Chase for
41:20
Speaker 1: example for the Bengals was great, but it's still about
41:22
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. Like it's still you know, if they if
41:25
Speaker 1: you don't have a quarterback, that's where a draft pick
41:28
Speaker 1: could change everything. Um but even so, like then you
41:32
Speaker 1: still just have a rookie quarterback, so you're still probably
41:34
Speaker 1: a year away. So that's it's not like a major thing,
41:37
Speaker 1: it's definitely something you're looking at more so, um, you know,
41:41
Speaker 1: I think with maybe if you're betting like division, uh
41:44
Speaker 1: straight up, like a division odds, you can kind of
41:46
Speaker 1: compare the four teams and how they all match up
41:49
Speaker 1: in terms of those things. But when when you're talking
41:51
Speaker 1: about like Super Bowl futures, I just think there's certain
41:54
Speaker 1: teams that got it and certain teams that are a
41:56
Speaker 1: year away or more. And it's not hard to see there.
42:00
Speaker 1: I'm right to Chris about that where it's like, as
42:02
Speaker 1: which I wish I could predict how these guys will
42:04
Speaker 1: drafts and how that's gonna affect the outcome. It's like,
42:06
Speaker 1: did we know that Jamaar Chase and a kicker we're
42:09
Speaker 1: gonna take the Bengals from never winning a playoff road
42:11
Speaker 1: game to a super Bowl. It's like, you just can't
42:13
Speaker 1: see these things coming. It's it's definitely you definitely need
42:16
Speaker 1: the quarterback there. So for me, like Chad, you know
42:19
Speaker 1: a team I'm heavily best in the second year quarterback,
42:21
Speaker 1: It's gonna be the Jaguars. I love. I love just
42:24
Speaker 1: really ugly gross teams that I know they have the quarterback,
42:27
Speaker 1: the potential. They just need the coaching and to make
42:29
Speaker 1: the right moves their free agency in other places. So
42:32
Speaker 1: that's a team where if the Jaguars can nail this draft,
42:35
Speaker 1: if they can get a good offensive lineman or de
42:37
Speaker 1: line with that first pick and then use their other
42:39
Speaker 1: picks that really fell out that roster, that's an exciting
42:42
Speaker 1: turnaround team because it's like the FC South is kind
42:44
Speaker 1: of terrible. Not that I don't believe in the Titans,
42:46
Speaker 1: but it tell yous you win three years in a row.
42:49
Speaker 1: When that division of the Colts, we don't know the
42:51
Speaker 1: quarterback is. It's there's a lot of unknown in that division.
42:54
Speaker 1: So for me, a hundred fifty one where you can
42:57
Speaker 1: get them at the Jaguars. That's a fun second year
43:00
Speaker 1: long shot where I could see their odds moving a
43:03
Speaker 1: little bit after the draft if they really do draft
43:05
Speaker 1: the right pieces. That's disgusting. Why would you why would
43:09
Speaker 1: you even say that. That's like saying, yeah, let's definitely
43:12
Speaker 1: bet the Jacks plus seventeen against the Texans in Week eighteen. HM. Terrible?
43:23
Speaker 1: Which teams are totally fund right now, Like they they
43:28
Speaker 1: cannot get under the cap. They've they're they're saddled with
43:33
Speaker 1: a quarterback contract that is going to screw them for
43:37
Speaker 1: the next twelve months, if not beyond Raybon who is
43:41
Speaker 1: totally screwed. I mean, first of all, we have to
43:45
Speaker 1: put this into some context, like every like the Packers
43:48
Speaker 1: for example, of the worst cash phase in the NFL
43:50
Speaker 1: right now, but like they have Aaron Rodgers, every team
43:53
Speaker 1: can do what they need to do. A NFL contracts
43:55
Speaker 1: are so dumb, like you can do what you need
43:57
Speaker 1: to do to kind of get under the cap. But
43:59
Speaker 1: with that being said, uh I worry about the Saints.
44:04
Speaker 1: I mean, the Saints have the second fewest cap space
44:08
Speaker 1: and there's no quarterback to speak of, Like you know, what,
44:12
Speaker 1: are you gonna run it back with Taysom Hill? Like
44:14
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen there? Now you have this this legal
44:17
Speaker 1: drama that popped up with Alvin Kamara. I mean, the
44:20
Speaker 1: Saints could be like they could win that division, or
44:22
Speaker 1: they could be really bad. Uh So I would worry
44:25
Speaker 1: about them because if they don't have one of Like
44:27
Speaker 1: when you look at some of these other teams that
44:29
Speaker 1: are in capell like the Packers, the Rams, Um, the
44:33
Speaker 1: Bucks that don't have a lot of cap space, the
44:35
Speaker 1: Chiefs are in the bottom, near the bottom of the league.
44:38
Speaker 1: Like these teams are teams that win. I mean, if
44:40
Speaker 1: you just look at the bottom uh ten in cap
44:44
Speaker 1: space this year right now anyway, and this changes all
44:48
Speaker 1: the time, guys, teams are making moves. But Bills, Cowboys, Niners, Chiefs, Giants, Bucks, Vikings, Ram, Saints, Packers,
44:57
Speaker 1: almost all of those teams are very good. So the
45:01
Speaker 1: teams that you would say are fucked Giants, they don't
45:04
Speaker 1: belong in that group. Like, you know, for a team
45:07
Speaker 1: not to have cap space and have a roster that bad,
45:09
Speaker 1: not a good sign Saints for a team just lost
45:12
Speaker 1: their their great coach and have no quarterback. For them
45:16
Speaker 1: to be that deep in the whole and not have
45:18
Speaker 1: a great roster, that's troubling. And then the Vikings kind
45:21
Speaker 1: of you look at it and say, each I mean
45:23
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins taking up twenty two percent of that cap uh,
45:26
Speaker 1: and you know you don't want to move them or
45:29
Speaker 1: anything because it's still having Kirk Cousins still gives you
45:31
Speaker 1: a better chance than not having Kirk Cousins. Unfortunately. Um
45:35
Speaker 1: so like those teams. And then you know the Bucks,
45:38
Speaker 1: I mean, if they can't find a quarterback, I mean,
45:41
Speaker 1: they still have a lot of pieces, but you're not
45:43
Speaker 1: gonna win a Super Bowl playing gabber, so I don't
45:47
Speaker 1: that's not a great situation either. But um yeah, the
45:50
Speaker 1: Giants in them, Saints really kind of stick out there.
45:52
Speaker 1: They're not in that same group. They should not be
45:54
Speaker 1: this far in the whole heading into free agents. Once
45:57
Speaker 1: the Giants signed. We talked about this last night at
46:00
Speaker 1: the Millman dinner table. Once the Giants sign Mitch True Whisky,
46:07
Speaker 1: and he proves that Matt Nagy was a fraud of
46:11
Speaker 1: a coach who coached the Chicago Bears into the bottom
46:18
Speaker 1: of the bucket. And Trubisky gets his shot to become
46:23
Speaker 1: a Hall of Famer because he was not utilized correctly.
46:27
Speaker 1: The Giants one of the most incredible turnarounds in NFL history. Yeah,
46:33
Speaker 1: I mean I was good. I don't think you have
46:35
Speaker 1: to be too worried. Chat. It's his nickname was one
46:37
Speaker 1: read Mitch for a reason, Like the kid would make
46:40
Speaker 1: one read if wasn't there, he'd pull it down. So
46:42
Speaker 1: maybe he's updated and changed one year and with the Bills,
46:46
Speaker 1: but I don't know, man, there was a reason all
46:49
Speaker 1: these teams didn't want to make him any offer last year,
46:51
Speaker 1: and he was a backup for the Bills. You know.
46:53
Speaker 1: It could solve two problems for the Giants though, Like
46:56
Speaker 1: if he if he really just is good under Bryan
46:59
Speaker 1: Davo and he Gable just somehow unlocks the best of
47:02
Speaker 1: Mitch true Bisky. Not only do the Giants have a quarterback,
47:06
Speaker 1: but then they can move Daniel Jones to running back
47:10
Speaker 1: and they'll finally have a running back because Sacon Barkley
47:14
Speaker 1: is apparently not who he was. Uh, you know a
47:18
Speaker 1: couple of years ago, you know, just three yards and
47:21
Speaker 1: a cloud of dust. So hey, you never know. Listen,
47:25
Speaker 1: here we are just a podcast, just a betting podcast,
47:28
Speaker 1: solving all the problems of the NFL. That's what we
47:31
Speaker 1: do here. Cha. You're just gonna skip over me like
47:35
Speaker 1: I'm a piece of meat. What do you mean you
47:37
Speaker 1: didn't ask me when I'm down on? All right? Who
47:40
Speaker 1: are you down on? Keeping on your show? You Bengos
47:43
Speaker 1: time and you clearly down on the banks. You made
47:46
Speaker 1: that very clear. Listen, don't listen. Don't you come back
47:50
Speaker 1: from vacation and like your tan and it's like your
47:53
Speaker 1: whole body is sensitive. Not just tell me who you're
47:56
Speaker 1: down on. Maybe maybe I missed it, Maybe I got
47:59
Speaker 1: caught up and miss Robisky euphoria and I completely forgot
48:02
Speaker 1: to ask the follow up. And he's the answer. In
48:07
Speaker 1: Miami we talked about with Stephen Ross. They have so
48:09
Speaker 1: much drama. They're the team that they messed up the
48:12
Speaker 1: tank season. They didn't get Joe Burrow, who's looking like
48:15
Speaker 1: a Hall of Fame or two years in, they didn't
48:17
Speaker 1: get Herbert because they passed on for two Uh that's
48:19
Speaker 1: just that's one of those teams Miami. They could if
48:22
Speaker 1: they struggle earlier in the season, they could fall apart
48:24
Speaker 1: quick because you hear you've heard the whispers about them
48:27
Speaker 1: not really committed to A and Brian Flores trying to
48:30
Speaker 1: get Watson in there, and now he's gone. They got
48:32
Speaker 1: the new coach in there who he seems like a
48:34
Speaker 1: cool dude, but he seems like he is stone seven.
48:38
Speaker 1: Every time I hear this dude talk, I'm like, wow,
48:40
Speaker 1: that is the highest coach I've ever heard. So I
48:43
Speaker 1: don't know, Miami is just making me nervous. I love
48:45
Speaker 1: the bet on Miami, but they got drama and they
48:48
Speaker 1: might have whipped big time on taken to over Herbert.
48:53
Speaker 1: That's that's not even a Mike, that's a I think
48:55
Speaker 1: it's already in judgment here. That's not looking good now
48:59
Speaker 1: you got it, you know, like listen, borrow Herbert these guys,
49:03
Speaker 1: you know it doesn't like we already see it. Like
49:06
Speaker 1: it's like the best too, I could hope for is
49:08
Speaker 1: to be like Jimmy yeah, yeah, yeah, like like you
49:13
Speaker 1: put him on a good situation and he can almost
49:16
Speaker 1: get you there. Like that's all and I was high
49:18
Speaker 1: onto it coming out, you know, I bought into, you know,
49:20
Speaker 1: the leadership qualities and what he did in school, but
49:24
Speaker 1: just watching him in the NFL, it's like you kind
49:26
Speaker 1: of already know. Um. And we should mention the Dolphins
49:29
Speaker 1: have the second most cap space. So I think the
49:32
Speaker 1: real disappointment for me and it's again, you know, let
49:36
Speaker 1: the legal situation settle, but like taking yourself out of
49:41
Speaker 1: the Deshaun Watson running based on football reasons. Like obviously
49:46
Speaker 1: you know some people are gonna say they have morals
49:49
Speaker 1: this than that, but like, if this man is available
49:52
Speaker 1: to play football, he is by far the best quarterback
49:59
Speaker 1: on the mark, and I mean by far, so taking
50:03
Speaker 1: yourself out of that running um, And it goes for
50:07
Speaker 1: any team that's doing that. UM, I just think you
50:09
Speaker 1: have to kind of, you know, lower to expectations because
50:13
Speaker 1: he's that one guy. Now all the all the stuff
50:16
Speaker 1: we're talking about, now, he could change it off he
50:19
Speaker 1: goes to whatever one of these teams, Like, that's the
50:21
Speaker 1: one guy that that that that could change a franchise
50:25
Speaker 1: that's available or could be available. All right, well then
50:27
Speaker 1: let's let's end it like this, Simon, give me the
50:33
Speaker 1: team you would bet on right now trying to handicap
50:39
Speaker 1: where Deshaun Watson ends up. I can't do it. I
50:44
Speaker 1: mean there's I have no idea because I just I
50:46
Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna get away with it. I think
50:48
Speaker 1: he's gonna get this year off, like stuff is gonna
50:50
Speaker 1: come out of court. The more I read about it,
50:52
Speaker 1: just like this to do that a problem Like I
50:55
Speaker 1: don't know if he still has that problem, but clearly
50:57
Speaker 1: something's wrong with this dude in his head. So I
51:00
Speaker 1: I just don't see him playing this season. I'm one
51:02
Speaker 1: of those those betters where I'm off of the Shawn
51:05
Speaker 1: Watson more I've read about it, I just don't think
51:06
Speaker 1: he plays this year. Thoughts on where he's gonna go, Like,
51:11
Speaker 1: what's his most you were if you had a handicap.
51:14
Speaker 1: You know, we're playing quarterback sort of musical chairs here,
51:17
Speaker 1: if you had a handicap based on where everyone else
51:19
Speaker 1: has landed, like you said, the best player on the market.
51:22
Speaker 1: If you're trying to guess and say take a flyer
51:24
Speaker 1: on a team, is that the Panthers? Like how are
51:27
Speaker 1: you predicting where he ends up? I think the Indian
51:29
Speaker 1: appo was Colts. You know why. Two things. Number One,
51:33
Speaker 1: after that Wednesday, they now have the most cap space
51:37
Speaker 1: in the league, had an in a free agency. Number Two,
51:41
Speaker 1: I always feel like when you have executives that are
51:45
Speaker 1: on a team and they're in a division with another
51:49
Speaker 1: player and they see that guy twice a year and
51:52
Speaker 1: he has some success against though, I feel like they
51:55
Speaker 1: they're always it's kind of like scouts that scout a
51:57
Speaker 1: certain part of the country. So it's like all the guys,
51:59
Speaker 1: they're kind I know, bringing you back and saying, we
52:01
Speaker 1: need to go get this guy. Uh, you know from
52:04
Speaker 1: obviously that that region. So I just think coats in
52:07
Speaker 1: the division now, you know, would would the Texans trade Indivision?
52:11
Speaker 1: Maybe not, but I can see it happen if they
52:13
Speaker 1: offer the right you know, the right deal and they
52:15
Speaker 1: have this catch based and the assets to kind of
52:17
Speaker 1: do it. Uh And and and they're the team that every
52:19
Speaker 1: year quarterback for higher Indianapolis Coast, So that would be
52:23
Speaker 1: my bet. Nice you to take a stand on that.
52:26
Speaker 1: Simon was a bit of a coward, but that's cool.
52:28
Speaker 1: Damn shots shots fired, all right. This has been the
52:34
Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume podcast Network for my co host
52:40
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for my uh nemesis Chris Raybon for our
52:45
Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell I am Chad Millman. Download us from Spotify,
52:50
Speaker 1: from Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. Rate reviews,
52:54
Speaker 1: subscribe five stars, Say whatever you want until next time,
53:00
Speaker 1: Love you,