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Thursday BEST BETS | Pregame the Preseason | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason | 8/13/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
0:20
Speaker 1: your chips.
0:21
Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt.
0:23
Speaker 3: Man, you look like a ment three teen poulette turned
0:27
Speaker 3: the dust in your head.
0:29
Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
0:31
Speaker 1: Like they made you this man.
0:33
Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
0:37
Speaker 3: Your name steal means something on somebody for show.
0:41
Speaker 2: Put the glass.
0:42
Speaker 3: Down, baby, look at me.
0:46
Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on nothing.
0:54
Speaker 4: Nice now, hold on, hold on me, but it don't
1:12
Speaker 4: get the crown. Hold on, hold on.
1:18
Speaker 2: Stay with me, now what's up? Everybody's towed back with
1:29
Speaker 2: you with Toadstool Sports Thursday, August thirteenth, yesterday. Obviously it
1:36
Speaker 2: was bullshit like we obviously shouldar got one on one
1:39
Speaker 2: with those plays, the first five under in the Philadelphia game.
1:43
Speaker 2: Who were they playing? Saint Louis right one, one game
1:48
Speaker 2: into the bottom of the fifth, So all you need
1:49
Speaker 2: to do is avoid. You're not gonna lose that bet
1:52
Speaker 2: unless three runs get scored by a horrendous Saint Louis
1:55
Speaker 2: offense in a picture friendly park. In that one half
1:59
Speaker 2: been inning against one of the best pitchers of baseball,
2:02
Speaker 2: Zach Wheeler, and what happens Oh yeah, he just happened
2:04
Speaker 2: to give up four fucking runs in that bottom half
2:08
Speaker 2: of the inning, So then you lose everything. And if
2:10
Speaker 2: you if had given up two, I would have been
2:13
Speaker 2: pissed because it would have been a push. That would
2:15
Speaker 2: have been bad enough. No, and then to make matters worse,
2:18
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure the full game wound up being a
2:20
Speaker 2: push because it was a seven to one Saint Louis win,
2:23
Speaker 2: and I think the total was eight, so the full
2:26
Speaker 2: game under would have been a push. It's such bullshit.
2:29
Speaker 2: And then obviously I was completely wrong about Mariners Yankees.
2:33
Speaker 2: Neither pitcher did well. Will Warren was horrible, and then
2:37
Speaker 2: Seattle still blew that game. Seattle was winning throughout the
2:40
Speaker 2: first league half of that game. They just threw it away.
2:43
Speaker 2: Even though their bullpen isn't that bad. The Yankees bullpen
2:46
Speaker 2: is better than theirs. And yeah, the Yankees bullpen won
2:49
Speaker 2: out yesterday. I mean, everything that happened yesterday sucked. I'm
2:54
Speaker 2: fucking pissed, and I don't even know if I'm gonna
2:57
Speaker 2: win today. I have won baseball play and when you
3:00
Speaker 2: look at the board, you'll have no idea what my
3:01
Speaker 2: play is gonna be. I mean, it is one that
3:03
Speaker 2: I guess is at least somewhat predictable, that it might
3:06
Speaker 2: be a play of mind. But you look at these
3:08
Speaker 2: games and like I was, I had all these different thoughts.
3:10
Speaker 2: It looked like there were gonna be a bunch of
3:12
Speaker 2: different options today even though it's a small board. No,
3:16
Speaker 2: there are things that worry me about like all of it.
3:18
Speaker 2: So I got one play it better win, And I
3:21
Speaker 2: will give out a WNBA play as well, which I
3:24
Speaker 2: think is the best situational spot there. And I'm gonna
3:28
Speaker 2: talk about preseason NFL as well. I do have a
3:30
Speaker 2: couple of opinions there that are I think are stronger
3:33
Speaker 2: than the rest. Let's do it. We have afternoon baseball
3:38
Speaker 2: here because there are a lot of series ending here,
3:40
Speaker 2: so the majority of this is afternoon baseball. Cleveland and
3:43
Speaker 2: Detroit finishing their series. Cleveland won yesterday. They've won seven
3:48
Speaker 2: of eight games I'm pretty sure against Detroit this year,
3:51
Speaker 2: so they were able to cool off Detroit in the
3:54
Speaker 2: wrong game because we needed Cleveland in the first game.
3:57
Speaker 2: But Cleveland was able to win yesterday. And Cleveland should
4:01
Speaker 2: have the better pitcher here today, and Cleveland's kind of
4:05
Speaker 2: in desperation mode. But things are not over for them.
4:08
Speaker 2: Like people are acting like they're done. No, these neither
4:11
Speaker 2: of these teams are done. Both these teams need to
4:13
Speaker 2: keep winning. They're in the wildcard race. That last wildcard
4:16
Speaker 2: spot could be a whole bunch of different teams right now.
4:19
Speaker 2: The Red Sox might even fall out of it because
4:21
Speaker 2: they suck. Yeah, so Cleveland and Detroit are in the
4:25
Speaker 2: thick of it. They could still win the division as well.
4:28
Speaker 2: Bullpen wise, Detroit generally is the better bullpen these three
4:31
Speaker 2: guys yesterday. Cleveland is okay, but they did use their
4:35
Speaker 2: better relievers, Goddess, their closer, et cetera. I believe he's
4:38
Speaker 2: their closer to finish that game off. So Detroit probably
4:41
Speaker 2: does have a bullpen advantage in this game. They're number
4:44
Speaker 2: fourteen arranged by Whip. Cleveland is twenty ath the lotwle
4:47
Speaker 2: Cleveland is better than that. They both have sub four eras.
4:51
Speaker 2: Cleveland is horrible offensively, they're twenty eighth. Detroit is the
4:55
Speaker 2: better offense. They're eleven. The Detroit is a pretty good
4:58
Speaker 2: home team, but they haven't been good against Cleveland this year,
5:00
Speaker 2: like I said, and they have to go up against
5:02
Speaker 2: Parker Messic in this game, who is probably Cleveland's best pitcher,
5:06
Speaker 2: although Kevin Williams is their best. Strikeout man Messic two
5:10
Speaker 2: point five seven e RA one point zero four whip.
5:13
Speaker 2: That's good stuff here. I might do some things a
5:16
Speaker 2: little bit differently here if we can. I have to
5:18
Speaker 2: look at the stats page here because I just want
5:20
Speaker 2: to get the better overview of Like, yeah, his strikeouts
5:23
Speaker 2: per nine is right at nine nine per nine, which
5:26
Speaker 2: I could consider to be good, like even a little
5:30
Speaker 2: bit below that isn't bad. And then you can see
5:32
Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio here above three, which is kind
5:34
Speaker 2: of the threshold I use. That's all good. He's good
5:37
Speaker 2: on the road as well. Two point two four Roady Ray.
5:41
Speaker 2: He's been pitching well recently as well. Had a good
5:43
Speaker 2: start against the White Sox last time out. Not really
5:46
Speaker 2: that easy of a task. He doesn't seem to be
5:49
Speaker 2: fading yet. His strikeout number is still high in his
5:51
Speaker 2: recent starts. He's not really walking anybody here, so that's good.
5:56
Speaker 2: So yeah, his hit rate is low as walk rate
5:58
Speaker 2: is low. Strikeout rate, like I said, is right at
6:00
Speaker 2: one per inning. The only thing you gotta worry with,
6:04
Speaker 2: uh worry about with him is the innings count because
6:07
Speaker 2: he is young, so he's getting up there in his
6:10
Speaker 2: innings and it's gonna be the most. It's already the
6:12
Speaker 2: most that he's ever thrown. But he doesn't show signs
6:15
Speaker 2: of fading yet, so I'm not worried about him yet.
6:18
Speaker 2: But it could have happened fast. You know that fatigue
6:21
Speaker 2: at the end of the season. So Cleveland has to
6:24
Speaker 2: strike this balance here, you know what I mean with
6:26
Speaker 2: oh my god, we have this really young pitcher, but
6:28
Speaker 2: he's one of our better pitchers. We also have to
6:30
Speaker 2: try to make the playoffs, and if we make the playoffs,
6:33
Speaker 2: we want him to be rested well enough. So it's
6:36
Speaker 2: that trade off there. His numbers, it gets Detroit two
6:39
Speaker 2: point fifty average allowed, seven thirty six ops, so he
6:43
Speaker 2: has the upper hand against them, but it's kind of slight.
6:46
Speaker 2: Twenty at bats, not a huge amount of at bats,
6:48
Speaker 2: six to one strike out walk ratio seven of their
6:51
Speaker 2: hitters have faced, and I would I'd lean more towards
6:54
Speaker 2: Messic pitching well again here though than not. Detroit is
6:58
Speaker 2: cater Montero on the mound, and you think that looking
7:01
Speaker 2: at this, this does look like it would be more
7:03
Speaker 2: of an under type of game, and I do think that,
7:06
Speaker 2: but it's not gonna be anything on my card here Montero.
7:10
Speaker 2: He's had a pretty good season, although remember he's been
7:12
Speaker 2: kind of back and forth between the bullpen and the
7:15
Speaker 2: starting rotation. But it seems like he's gonna be in
7:18
Speaker 2: their starting rotation from here forward, probably because he's done
7:22
Speaker 2: a decent job and they traded away to their starters.
7:26
Speaker 2: Probably he was part of He was probably one of
7:28
Speaker 2: the reasons why they thought they could do that. Three
7:31
Speaker 2: point three eighty ra one point zero one whip that's
7:34
Speaker 2: pretty good. He's a little bit worse at home though,
7:36
Speaker 2: three point seventy to nine home ye Ray last time out,
7:41
Speaker 2: gave up five runs at San Francisco. That's not good.
7:44
Speaker 2: But he wasn't that bad in that started, though his
7:47
Speaker 2: command was a little bit off. His command has been
7:49
Speaker 2: a little bit off in his last couple of starts.
7:51
Speaker 2: Maybe that is a little bit of a concern. And
7:53
Speaker 2: I think he was coming out of the bullpen for
7:55
Speaker 2: a while before that, so he's having a transition back.
7:59
Speaker 2: Does have a low hit ray, low walk rate, doesn't
8:01
Speaker 2: really strike anybody out though, so that does mean his
8:05
Speaker 2: strikeout number is not gonna be very good here. Yeah,
8:08
Speaker 2: so Strakeout's per nine not very good. Straight out walk
8:11
Speaker 2: ratio is still good though, because he doesn't really walk anybody,
8:14
Speaker 2: So I do like that his numbers against Cleveland or
8:17
Speaker 2: a mix of good and bad. Forty three at bats,
8:20
Speaker 2: two point nine average A lot is good, seven eighty
8:22
Speaker 2: eight ohps has a been on the higher side though,
8:25
Speaker 2: eight to four strikeout walk ratio. So I'm leaving this
8:29
Speaker 2: game alone. I am. I think I would slightly lean
8:33
Speaker 2: Cleveland in the first five, and I would still probably
8:36
Speaker 2: lean under The money doesn't agree with any of it, though.
8:38
Speaker 2: Cleveland is a favorite on the road, so the money's
8:42
Speaker 2: coming in against that Cleveland. It's sixty percent of tickets
8:45
Speaker 2: fifty nine percent of the cash on Detroit. Cleveland's had
8:48
Speaker 2: the upper hand in this season series, Messeic, I think
8:51
Speaker 2: is the better of the two pitchers here. I don't
8:53
Speaker 2: really like Cleveland's bulpen enough, which is why I said
8:56
Speaker 2: first five. But you're probably gonna be looking at like
8:58
Speaker 2: minus one thirty something for Cleveland in the first five
9:01
Speaker 2: because they're like minus one twenty in the full game.
9:04
Speaker 2: Don't really know if I really want to do that.
9:06
Speaker 2: I don't think I do, And then the money is
9:08
Speaker 2: indicating against the under to sixty eight percent of the
9:11
Speaker 2: tickets and sixty two percent of the cash on the
9:13
Speaker 2: under eight. I still think the under makes sense, though,
9:17
Speaker 2: Like just from an overall perspective, I think both starters
9:20
Speaker 2: are generally good, the bullpens are generally good, so I
9:23
Speaker 2: would I think the under still might be the best
9:26
Speaker 2: way to look at that game. I'm not gonna do it, though.
9:29
Speaker 2: The next game will be my only play, my only
9:38
Speaker 2: playing baseball. I should say we have to lay a
9:41
Speaker 2: bit for this. This is gonna be the Pirates in
9:43
Speaker 2: the first five minus the half run against Miami. And
9:46
Speaker 2: I know we're going against a hot Miami team here.
9:49
Speaker 2: Miami's on the verge of a sweep here, then one
9:51
Speaker 2: four in a row. I'm not impressed by them beating
9:54
Speaker 2: the Angels, I'll tell you that. And I know Pittsburgh
9:56
Speaker 2: looks like they're not playing with motivation anymore. Miami kind
10:00
Speaker 2: of still is. Miami is still in the wildcard hunt here,
10:03
Speaker 2: and they're really not that far off from Philadelphia. So yes,
10:06
Speaker 2: you could argue Miami has more motivation here if you
10:08
Speaker 2: really think the Pirates are just done for the season,
10:12
Speaker 2: but I think the Pirates are gonna show up try
10:14
Speaker 2: to avoid getting swept here. You know, I like playing
10:16
Speaker 2: teams that are trying to avoid a sweep. Miami, unfortunate,
10:19
Speaker 2: does not really have a look ahead. They're playing the
10:21
Speaker 2: Reds next. That's not really a big deal. But I
10:24
Speaker 2: still think Pittsburgh has the better starter here, and they
10:27
Speaker 2: might actually show up for once to try to avoid
10:29
Speaker 2: the sweep here. So I do like that, and you
10:33
Speaker 2: might be getting more towards the bottom of the market
10:35
Speaker 2: here on Pittsburgh, although I know you're having to pay
10:37
Speaker 2: a price for this because the odds makers. No, Pittsburgh
10:40
Speaker 2: clearly has the better starter here, and that is what
10:41
Speaker 2: I'm going with here. We do need them to be
10:43
Speaker 2: winning at the end of the first five, but hopefully
10:46
Speaker 2: their offense is good. Hopefully they can break out and
10:49
Speaker 2: get some runs here to allow this to happen. I
10:52
Speaker 2: don't like their bullpen Pittsburgh. These four guys yesterday, Miami
10:57
Speaker 2: used three. I'm gonna exclude the bullpens. Miami is definitely
11:00
Speaker 2: the better bullpen. They're ranked fifth, although I think they're
11:03
Speaker 2: overrated at fifth. Although I'm just arranging this by whip,
11:06
Speaker 2: so it's the numbers. Pittsburgh is twenty third, so yes,
11:09
Speaker 2: we will exclude Pittsburgh's bullpen here. Pittsburgh is the better
11:13
Speaker 2: offense still, although they've been worse recently. They're fifth, and
11:15
Speaker 2: this is a pitcher friendly park. Miami's eighth. I'm still
11:19
Speaker 2: gonna do this, though, I'm gonna back the better pitcher
11:22
Speaker 2: with the higher ceiling in Braxton Ashcraft four point eighty array,
11:26
Speaker 2: but he has a one point one to six whip,
11:28
Speaker 2: which is still I think pretty good. He is basically
11:33
Speaker 2: the same home and away. His splits aren't really anything significant.
11:36
Speaker 2: He's got a nice strikeout rate here man basically ten
11:40
Speaker 2: strikeouts per nine, so he does have a bunch of
11:43
Speaker 2: strikeout a building and I like to see that. That
11:45
Speaker 2: means he's able to just whiff guys at the major
11:49
Speaker 2: league level, you know. And hist strike out walk ratio
11:52
Speaker 2: is also really good this year four and a half.
11:55
Speaker 2: That's well above that like three that I consider to
11:58
Speaker 2: kind of be that threshold there. He did give up
12:00
Speaker 2: four runs last time, but it was against Milwaukee. They're
12:03
Speaker 2: a good offense. He's still had five strikeouts one walk there,
12:05
Speaker 2: so I don't think he's done yet, and he's not
12:08
Speaker 2: throwing that many pitches in these outings. They're letting him
12:11
Speaker 2: go like a round five innings and a lot of
12:13
Speaker 2: these starts, So keeping it to the first five also
12:16
Speaker 2: makes sense in that respect where they're kind of limiting
12:18
Speaker 2: his pitches a little bit. But yeah, his hit rate
12:21
Speaker 2: is pretty low, his walk rate's pretty low, strike out
12:23
Speaker 2: rate is high. All of that looks good. His numbers
12:27
Speaker 2: are really good against Miami as well. Though they only
12:29
Speaker 2: have fourteen at bats, seven hitters have faced them. They
12:31
Speaker 2: only have one hit a single from Xavier Edwards, four strikeouts,
12:36
Speaker 2: two walks, oh seventy one average two fifty nine ops.
12:40
Speaker 2: Ashcraft has really held this offense down when he has
12:43
Speaker 2: faced them. So I'm gonna bank on him here against
12:46
Speaker 2: the converted reliever Tyler Phillips, who I don't think he's
12:50
Speaker 2: as good as he looks. Man. Oh, but he has
12:52
Speaker 2: a better era than Ashcraft three point four to seven. Yeah,
12:56
Speaker 2: but if you look at the numbers at all, you
12:58
Speaker 2: know he's not the better of the two pitch And
13:01
Speaker 2: of course he's been coming out of the bullpen a
13:04
Speaker 2: bit this year as well. He's kind of in the
13:07
Speaker 2: rotation because of Miami needs to fill the rotation. Although, yeah,
13:10
Speaker 2: he's been decent, but his one point three to six
13:12
Speaker 2: whip is not that good. At Homie is good, I
13:16
Speaker 2: won't deny that one point six to eight Homiere race.
13:18
Speaker 2: You don't really want to fade him at home, although
13:21
Speaker 2: I am doing it here because I think there are
13:23
Speaker 2: things about him that untrusted for any mean, he doesn't
13:25
Speaker 2: strike out that many guys. His strikeout walk ratio this
13:29
Speaker 2: year is actually pretty pitiful below two, So I don't
13:32
Speaker 2: like that he's not going that deep into some of
13:35
Speaker 2: these outings. He's been fine as far as his command recently,
13:39
Speaker 2: or he's not really along that many runs, but he's
13:41
Speaker 2: just not going deep into these games, man. And he's
13:44
Speaker 2: coming off a few games where he faced some weak offenses.
13:48
Speaker 2: Philadelphia I don't consider to be that good, especially when
13:50
Speaker 2: it was Philadelphia on the road, then the Mets even
13:53
Speaker 2: though they know they're hot or recently, and then Anaheim. Yeah,
13:57
Speaker 2: Anaheim is one of the worst offenses in baseball. I'm
13:59
Speaker 2: not a pressed really by any of that. Does have
14:02
Speaker 2: a reasonable hit rate here is walk great is too high?
14:04
Speaker 2: Like I said, it doesn't really strike guys out. Pittsburgh
14:09
Speaker 2: hasn't had success off him. They have six hitters of
14:12
Speaker 2: face and fourteen at bats two fourteen average five ninety eight. Ohps,
14:17
Speaker 2: I know I'm going against the home road split's here.
14:20
Speaker 2: I'm going against his matchup numbers here. I'm just playing
14:23
Speaker 2: the spot here plus the better picture. So I think
14:25
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh extra motivation trying to avoid the sweep, plus Ashcraft
14:29
Speaker 2: much higher ceiling. That is what I'm gonna back here.
14:33
Speaker 2: I'd agree with an under to some extent in this
14:36
Speaker 2: game as well, based on those matchup numbers that we
14:39
Speaker 2: just looked at. The money seems to be not agreeing
14:41
Speaker 2: with any of it. I'm agreeing with nothing in the
14:44
Speaker 2: market today. Pittsburgh is favored about minus one twenty their
14:48
Speaker 2: favorite for a reason though. Man, that's the other thing, Like,
14:51
Speaker 2: I'm surprised that the public is not more heavy on
14:54
Speaker 2: Miami because think about it, like they're gonna look at
14:57
Speaker 2: this and say, oh, I have the picture with the
14:59
Speaker 2: better R and Miami has the better record, and they're
15:02
Speaker 2: an underdog at home. So to me, it seems like
15:04
Speaker 2: the public would come in on Miami. So to me,
15:07
Speaker 2: I think this is the odds maker signaling to you, like, hey,
15:11
Speaker 2: we think Pittsburgh should win this game. That's what I
15:14
Speaker 2: think based on seeing them, have them as a favorite
15:17
Speaker 2: even though they're again the team with the lesser record
15:20
Speaker 2: and on the road. So yeah, that signals something to me.
15:23
Speaker 2: Even though we have fifty two percent to take a
15:25
Speaker 2: sixty six percent of the cash on Miami, I'm gonna
15:29
Speaker 2: be on Pittsburgh in the first five here. The money
15:31
Speaker 2: is backing the over eight as well, but I would
15:34
Speaker 2: lean under in the first five. I wouldn't really want
15:36
Speaker 2: to deal with Pittsburgh's bullpen, but first five under I
15:39
Speaker 2: think does make some sense as well. But Pittsburgh in
15:42
Speaker 2: the first five is going to be my play. You
15:44
Speaker 2: get it at even money, but you have to lay
15:46
Speaker 2: the half run, so they need to be winning by
15:48
Speaker 2: one there. Yes, you'll lose the bet if they are
15:52
Speaker 2: not winning at that point. Seattle at the Yankees on
15:56
Speaker 2: ESPN Unlimited. Yankees are on the verge of a sweep here.
16:00
Speaker 2: Looked at this pitching matchup and I thought this was
16:02
Speaker 2: gonna be an under, But then I dug into the
16:04
Speaker 2: matchup and I do not like it, so uh for
16:09
Speaker 2: one real one reason really, uh is why I don't
16:12
Speaker 2: like the under and I might actually look more towards
16:15
Speaker 2: a side in this game, but I think the matchup
16:18
Speaker 2: is actually in opposition to the situation here, so you
16:21
Speaker 2: probably know where I'm going with this Situationally, I think
16:24
Speaker 2: Seattle would be the way to look here because they're
16:26
Speaker 2: trying to avoid the sweep. The Yankees are already they're
16:30
Speaker 2: going to get into the playoffs. It's just a matter
16:32
Speaker 2: of whether they win the division or they wind up
16:34
Speaker 2: in the number one wildcard spot. Like they have a
16:38
Speaker 2: huge lead over the Red Sox now because the Red
16:39
Speaker 2: Sox can't fucking win a game, so the Yankees are
16:42
Speaker 2: obviously making the playoffs. Seattle is in desperation mode here,
16:47
Speaker 2: like they're gonna have to probably win their division, and
16:50
Speaker 2: they can still do that, but they're gonna need to
16:53
Speaker 2: be extra motivated here. So I think Seattle's gonna be
16:55
Speaker 2: more motivated. Yankees have already won the series. They won yesterday,
17:00
Speaker 2: ludicrously high scoring game, way higher than I thought it
17:03
Speaker 2: would be. That was a loss for us on the
17:05
Speaker 2: under I'm not happy about it. Yankees don't really have
17:09
Speaker 2: a look ahead though. They're playing Toronto next, Like I
17:12
Speaker 2: don't know if they're really gonna be looking ahead. Well,
17:14
Speaker 2: you know, it is a divisional series though, and Toronto
17:17
Speaker 2: did eliminate the Yankees last year from the playoffs, so
17:19
Speaker 2: maybe the Yankees do kind of consider that series to
17:23
Speaker 2: be bigger. Although the Yankees have already played Toronto this
17:25
Speaker 2: year as well, of course, but possibly so. I think
17:29
Speaker 2: Seattle is in the better situation here, but that's kind
17:32
Speaker 2: of where the good things end as far as Seattle
17:35
Speaker 2: situation does mean something. Yankees did use five relief pitchers yesterday,
17:39
Speaker 2: so Seattle is the more rested bullpen. They used three yesterday,
17:43
Speaker 2: so that's also kind of good for them. Yankees are
17:46
Speaker 2: the better bullpen in general. They're number four in Whip
17:49
Speaker 2: but the number two era, and with the way the
17:52
Speaker 2: Red Sox have been going recently, yeah, the Yankees might
17:54
Speaker 2: be the better bullpen. I still don't think so, but yeah,
17:57
Speaker 2: they're one of the top two bullpens. Seattle is ranked seventeenth,
18:02
Speaker 2: but they're definitely better than that in my opinion. The
18:05
Speaker 2: Yankees have been moving up again offensively a little while
18:08
Speaker 2: for the last couple of games after they were really
18:11
Speaker 2: they've been really bad. Without Aaron Judge, they're thirteenth. They're
18:15
Speaker 2: capable of better than that obviously, and they've been moving
18:17
Speaker 2: back up a little bit. Seattle's been really bad basically
18:21
Speaker 2: all year. Twenty ninth of Seattle's offense can't get it right.
18:25
Speaker 2: So yes, the Yankees obviously have the better offense, especially
18:28
Speaker 2: they're better at home, so Yankees do have the edge there.
18:31
Speaker 2: Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle, which is where I
18:34
Speaker 2: was thinking this could be another under move here. Gilbert's
18:37
Speaker 2: good a three point four to two ERA one whip.
18:40
Speaker 2: He's good on the road two point five road ERA
18:43
Speaker 2: ponent batting average, a little bit worse on the road,
18:45
Speaker 2: but eray better on the road. Usually you don't see
18:48
Speaker 2: that from a Seattle pitcher. He's continuing to pitch pretty well.
18:52
Speaker 2: Those walk number was high in his last downing against Tampa,
18:55
Speaker 2: but he's still going out there and pitching pretty well.
18:58
Speaker 2: He's throwing a lot of innings, but he's a guy
19:00
Speaker 2: that's used to that at this point, so I don't
19:02
Speaker 2: really care about that. Low hit rate, low walk rate,
19:05
Speaker 2: high strike up rate. All that's good. His case per
19:09
Speaker 2: nine are pretty high, not as good as last year,
19:12
Speaker 2: they're really high this year. Is still pretty good though,
19:16
Speaker 2: and obviously has a pretty nice strikeout walk ratio as well. However,
19:21
Speaker 2: against the Yankees, he's been really bad. Fifty four of bats,
19:24
Speaker 2: three point fifteen average, eight eighty three ops, fourteen to
19:28
Speaker 2: six strikeout walk ratio. I can't back him against the Yankees, man,
19:31
Speaker 2: I mean, his numbers are just not good. He's going
19:34
Speaker 2: up against Max Freed, who is pitching well and has
19:37
Speaker 2: had some injuries this season, so he's gonna be a
19:39
Speaker 2: little bit fresher moving into the playoffs. So I don't
19:42
Speaker 2: like that either, because I want the Yankees to go down.
19:45
Speaker 2: Freed has been good though, two point eight to eighty
19:47
Speaker 2: r RA, point nine to seven WHIP. He's slightly worse
19:51
Speaker 2: at home three point four to five Home he are Ray,
19:53
Speaker 2: but his opponent batting average both home and away is
19:56
Speaker 2: below two hundred. He's been really good in his last
19:59
Speaker 2: couple hours. Came back from injury. He missed like over
20:02
Speaker 2: a month. He missed two months, actually more than that.
20:06
Speaker 2: And since he's come back, he struggled a little bit
20:08
Speaker 2: in one of the four starts, but the other three
20:10
Speaker 2: have been good. He's got a low hit rate, pretty
20:13
Speaker 2: low walk rate, strikeout rate isn't really that high. He's
20:16
Speaker 2: not a huge strikeout guy, but still strikeouts for nine,
20:21
Speaker 2: not even really that bad in the eight and he's
20:23
Speaker 2: got his strike out walk ratio right around three. He
20:26
Speaker 2: does have some questions with the walks, but he's generally
20:30
Speaker 2: good obviously against Seattle seventy seven at bats two thirty
20:34
Speaker 2: four average, five sixty six oh ps. The only problem
20:37
Speaker 2: in here is again the strikeout walk ratio fifteen to seven,
20:41
Speaker 2: but all the rest of these numbers are good. I
20:44
Speaker 2: think I would have to lean to the Yankees in
20:46
Speaker 2: this one. They're very public though, eighty eight percent of tickets,
20:49
Speaker 2: ninety two percent of the cash they dropped for minus
20:52
Speaker 2: one to fifty two down to minus one thirty something,
20:54
Speaker 2: so some money did come in against them, at least initially.
20:58
Speaker 2: Maybe the money is coming back in on them at
21:00
Speaker 2: the lower price. I'm not so sure about that though,
21:03
Speaker 2: because they do look public, and you know, the professional
21:05
Speaker 2: money usually is coming in on these teams trying to
21:07
Speaker 2: avoid the sweep, which would be Seattle. Especially if you
21:10
Speaker 2: think that the Yankees are overpriced in the market, which
21:14
Speaker 2: they might be, especially with free and on the mound.
21:17
Speaker 2: I think I would have to play the Yankees, though
21:20
Speaker 2: I think they have the advantage with the starting pitching,
21:23
Speaker 2: probably still with the bullpen, even though the bullpens are
21:26
Speaker 2: less rested here. Money's also playing the over. The total
21:29
Speaker 2: drop from eight to seven and a half pretty quickly.
21:32
Speaker 2: It looks like I would lean I would probably still
21:35
Speaker 2: lean under in this game. And I still think you
21:37
Speaker 2: have better pitching than hitting throughout that game. So that's
21:41
Speaker 2: kind of the way that I look at that game.
21:43
Speaker 2: But I think the Yankees might be the better act,
21:45
Speaker 2: the better way to play that, But that would be
21:47
Speaker 2: going against the situation. I don't really want to do that.
21:50
Speaker 2: Cincinnati at the White Sox. The White Sox, I believe,
21:54
Speaker 2: blew the first game of this years. They're up four
21:56
Speaker 2: nothing and then they imploded and lost five to four.
21:59
Speaker 2: They flipped it a round one to five nothing yesterday.
22:01
Speaker 2: Luis Castillo, who they got at the trade deadline, had
22:04
Speaker 2: an excellent start, one of his best starts of his
22:06
Speaker 2: career actually in that game yesterday, so he was really good.
22:11
Speaker 2: Maybe a good pickup for the White Sox moving into
22:13
Speaker 2: the playoffs. Man, a guy that has playoff experience like
22:17
Speaker 2: that might have been a good move for the White Sox,
22:20
Speaker 2: especially because they don't really have an outstanding starting pitching
22:24
Speaker 2: rotation coming into this game. One of the White Sox
22:28
Speaker 2: better starters is on the mound today, and I expect
22:30
Speaker 2: them to be motivated because they're still trying to win
22:33
Speaker 2: their division and whatever. Cincinnati is just playing out the stretch,
22:36
Speaker 2: so I'm not going to say they're just gonna lie down.
22:39
Speaker 2: You know, you get out there, you still try to
22:41
Speaker 2: win the game. Usually, Cincinnati doesn't have a good bullpen.
22:45
Speaker 2: These three guys yesterday White Sox two. White Sox have
22:49
Speaker 2: the bullpen edge here pretty clearly. They're number fifteen Cincinnati
22:52
Speaker 2: number twenty five. White Sox have the better offense as
22:56
Speaker 2: well their fourteenth, Cincinnati's twenty fourth. Andrew Abbot is getting
23:00
Speaker 2: to start for Cincinnati. He's a mediocre pitcher in my opinion.
23:05
Speaker 2: This season has been a little bit less good than
23:07
Speaker 2: some of his prior seasons. Three point nine two ERA
23:10
Speaker 2: one point three to nine Whip. He's way better on
23:13
Speaker 2: the road, though two point eight nine Roady I Race.
23:15
Speaker 2: He's been significantly worse in Great America Ballpark, which is
23:19
Speaker 2: a hitter friendly ballpark. However, he is a really really
23:23
Speaker 2: questionable one point six strike out strike out walk ratio
23:26
Speaker 2: this year. That's not good. Like you look at last year,
23:29
Speaker 2: he was way better than that. His walk rate was
23:33
Speaker 2: just way lower last year, and his strike out rate
23:36
Speaker 2: was actually significantly or no, yeah, strike out right, I
23:38
Speaker 2: think was higher too. Right where am I looking? No,
23:43
Speaker 2: I think it's strike out right, I guess was similar.
23:45
Speaker 2: Well you could see here. No, yeah, strike out ray
23:48
Speaker 2: was still higher last year too. So yeah, he's having
23:51
Speaker 2: the worst season that he's had, which is interesting, but whatever.
23:55
Speaker 2: He's been okay over his last few starts, not allowing
23:58
Speaker 2: not many runs, but the the strikeout walk ratio is
24:01
Speaker 2: still a huge issue though, Like over his last few
24:04
Speaker 2: starts he actually has more walks than strikeouts. That's not good.
24:07
Speaker 2: You can't do that still is kind of hard to hit,
24:10
Speaker 2: doesn't really allow that many hits. Strikeout rate isn't very impressive.
24:14
Speaker 2: Like I said, it's gone down this year, and his
24:17
Speaker 2: walk rate has gone up this year, So he's he's
24:19
Speaker 2: having some issues here. Man. That strikeout walk racio is
24:22
Speaker 2: really bad, and he's not good against the White Sox
24:25
Speaker 2: in thirty one at bats three twenty three average nine
24:28
Speaker 2: nine five ops. Yeah, that's not good. So most mostly
24:33
Speaker 2: negatives for Abbot here except that he is good on
24:35
Speaker 2: the road. Davis Martin is picture for the White Sox.
24:40
Speaker 2: He's good at home, so both pitchers are in the
24:42
Speaker 2: better of the home road splits. Here. He's got a
24:44
Speaker 2: four point one to seventy RRAM, one point three to
24:46
Speaker 2: three whip getting a little high man. He's been worse recently.
24:51
Speaker 2: He was good for quite a while this season, but
24:53
Speaker 2: he's maybe it's the amount of innings I don't really know,
24:56
Speaker 2: but he's kind of falling off a little bit here.
24:58
Speaker 2: He has not reached the amount of inning that he
25:00
Speaker 2: reached last year, though, but his numbers are kind of
25:02
Speaker 2: just falling in line with what they were last year
25:04
Speaker 2: at this point. He's good at home though, two point
25:07
Speaker 2: eight to four home. He ra look at his overall numbers,
25:10
Speaker 2: strike up walk ratio is okay, strike up per nine
25:15
Speaker 2: is also okay, So again, a lot of mediocrety here.
25:19
Speaker 2: He only had a one inning appearance last time out
25:21
Speaker 2: against Cleveland. I don't really know what that was like.
25:24
Speaker 2: If he had an injury and they took him out
25:26
Speaker 2: of the game, I don't know. And his start before
25:27
Speaker 2: that was horrible against the Red Sox. So he's not
25:31
Speaker 2: in good form right now. I would not want to
25:33
Speaker 2: trust him. Most of his recent starts have been bad
25:36
Speaker 2: after he had some really really good looking numbers and
25:38
Speaker 2: then yeah, he's just falling apart over the last month plus.
25:42
Speaker 2: His hit rate is not good at this point, above
25:45
Speaker 2: one per inning. He doesn't really walk that many guys.
25:47
Speaker 2: His strike up rate is just okay against the Reds,
25:50
Speaker 2: though these numbers are actually hard to gauge. They have
25:54
Speaker 2: five hitters of face of nineteen at bats two to
25:56
Speaker 2: eleven average is pretty low, but they have two home
25:58
Speaker 2: runs against him. Blade and Suarez each have a home
26:02
Speaker 2: run and their ops is eight twelve four to two
26:05
Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. I would play the over in this game.
26:10
Speaker 2: That's the way I would play the money seems like
26:11
Speaker 2: it does agree with that. The totals eight and a
26:14
Speaker 2: half sixty seven percent of tickets eight it's seventy three
26:17
Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over. I yeah, I
26:20
Speaker 2: agree with that. I like that move. That's probably my
26:24
Speaker 2: second strongest opinion on this baseball board. Actually would be
26:27
Speaker 2: the over in this game. I know you have the
26:29
Speaker 2: pitchers in the better of their home road splits, but
26:33
Speaker 2: they've been bad, like recently, not good form, and their
26:37
Speaker 2: numbers just overall don't impress to me too many base runners.
26:41
Speaker 2: I think you could fade really both bullpens here as well.
26:44
Speaker 2: White Sox in general probably are the better team here,
26:49
Speaker 2: and that's why they're favored obviously, but they drop for
26:51
Speaker 2: minus one thirty nine down to minus one thirty. They're
26:54
Speaker 2: the team that has motivation as well. Like I said,
26:57
Speaker 2: the money is backing them sixty eight percent of tickets,
27:00
Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of the cash. On the White Sox.
27:03
Speaker 2: You could make the argument Martin is better than Abbott. Obviously,
27:07
Speaker 2: the White Sox have the better bullpen, as I already said,
27:09
Speaker 2: and they have the better offense. So the argument is
27:11
Speaker 2: there that the White Sox have the edge throughout this game.
27:15
Speaker 2: I still don't really want to do it, Martin. Both
27:18
Speaker 2: pitchers worrying me. Man, so again, I still think the
27:21
Speaker 2: over makes a lot of sense in that one, dirty sock,
27:25
Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Thank you for the jewels, sir.
27:28
Speaker 2: I still have no idea what they do Red Sox
27:32
Speaker 2: Blue Jays. I'm telling you, man, if the Red Sox
27:35
Speaker 2: don't win this game, just yeah, they're dead to me.
27:39
Speaker 2: They're already dead to me, Like you have the fucking
27:41
Speaker 2: Red Sox fans out there, don't panic, guys. We just
27:45
Speaker 2: won twenty seven out of thirty games. Don't worry that
27:48
Speaker 2: we've lost five games in a row. I'm like, you've
27:51
Speaker 2: lost five games in a row to two terrible teams,
27:54
Speaker 2: the A's and the Blue Jays. You were favored in
27:56
Speaker 2: every game except one of those games. The Dylan EA
28:00
Speaker 2: was the only game the Red Sox were an underdog
28:02
Speaker 2: in two of those games. They were a huge favorite
28:04
Speaker 2: at home against the A's, and the Red Sox elite
28:07
Speaker 2: bullpen has blown multiple of those games, including the last
28:12
Speaker 2: two of them and one of the A's ones. The
28:14
Speaker 2: Red Sox had the lead late or yesterday, I think
28:16
Speaker 2: it was tied late in those three games, and the
28:20
Speaker 2: Red Sox bullpen, which is the best in baseball, has
28:23
Speaker 2: blown all those games against two terrible offenses at this point.
28:26
Speaker 2: Toronto's is definitely terrible, and the A's offense has a
28:30
Speaker 2: lot of injuries and they're no good at all right
28:32
Speaker 2: now either. So this is disgusting. Guerrero for the Red
28:36
Speaker 2: Sox out there, yes today, unbelievably bad. He came in
28:39
Speaker 2: and he couldn't get anybody out, and he gave up
28:41
Speaker 2: like five runs, and he's this tall dude that throws
28:44
Speaker 2: one hundred miles an hour and he couldn't get anybody
28:46
Speaker 2: fucking out. What the fuck is going on? It makes
28:50
Speaker 2: no sense. Now, the Red Sox are in a situation
28:53
Speaker 2: where they have the better starter on the mound here,
28:55
Speaker 2: they still have the better bullpen, they have the better offense.
28:58
Speaker 2: They're looking to avoid a swing here. They're favored again,
29:02
Speaker 2: and they're a heavier favorite in this game than they
29:04
Speaker 2: have been in any other game in this series. I'm
29:06
Speaker 2: telling you, if they don't win this game, yeah, they're
29:09
Speaker 2: They're done. They're fucking done. I think they're already done.
29:12
Speaker 2: I don't care what they just did over the past
29:15
Speaker 2: month and a half or whatever. Like you do that, like, okay, fine,
29:19
Speaker 2: you're not gonna play as well as that for the
29:21
Speaker 2: rest of the season. Okay, you should still at least
29:23
Speaker 2: be able to play around five hundred ball here instead
29:26
Speaker 2: of losing every single fucking game. So yeah, no, Still
29:32
Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean to the Red Sox in this game.
29:34
Speaker 2: It almost made the cut for me. This was close
29:37
Speaker 2: to being a play for maybe the price I don't
29:39
Speaker 2: think is good, So I'm not gonna do it. They
29:42
Speaker 2: should win this game. If they don't, yeah, fuck you,
29:46
Speaker 2: I'm done. My Red Sox fandom is over. I'm so
29:50
Speaker 2: fucking sick of this fucking team. I'm sick of it.
29:53
Speaker 2: And they and of course they traded in another one
29:55
Speaker 2: of their top ten prospects away as a player to
29:58
Speaker 2: me named later for adly watch what have they done
30:01
Speaker 2: since he's been here? Oh yeah, just lose every game
30:03
Speaker 2: and he's played so far, He's done absolutely nothing. The
30:06
Speaker 2: offense has been a total disaster. Yeah, okay, great, cool.
30:11
Speaker 2: You traded four of your top ten prospects away for
30:13
Speaker 2: that guy, and he's only under contract for one more season.
30:17
Speaker 2: Great move, Great fucking move, Breslo, real fucking good, Fuck
30:23
Speaker 2: you Red Sox. He's four relief pitchers yesterday. That's also
30:27
Speaker 2: not great. I mean, yeah, okay. And Witlock is hurt
30:31
Speaker 2: right now, so that's also not good. So they have
30:33
Speaker 2: this gamboa guy in here right now. I have no
30:36
Speaker 2: idea who the fuck that is, because whoever this last
30:40
Speaker 2: guy is in their bullpen has sucked ass, so they
30:43
Speaker 2: keep changing who it is. And I think they optioned
30:45
Speaker 2: Weisser down to the minus. Bring that guy back up.
30:48
Speaker 2: He wasn't that bad. Nobody that they're replacing him with
30:51
Speaker 2: has done any better. They need Whitlock back pretty badly
30:55
Speaker 2: right now. This is not good, not good. Toronto used
30:59
Speaker 2: four relief pitchers yesterday as well, including their closer, but
31:03
Speaker 2: they only use it for five pitches there. And I
31:06
Speaker 2: didn't even realize Toronto has knuckleballer Matt Waldron in their
31:10
Speaker 2: fucking bullpen. Interesting. I actually think he's not that bad.
31:15
Speaker 2: Red Sox are still the number one bullpen even after
31:18
Speaker 2: these implosions they've been having whatever they are the better
31:23
Speaker 2: bullpen here. Toronto is sixteenth, although they are pretty good.
31:27
Speaker 2: Red Sox are still somewhere in the middle of the
31:29
Speaker 2: pack offensively after they've been They were good over that
31:32
Speaker 2: hot stretch, they haven't been good recently. They're fifteenth right now.
31:35
Speaker 2: On offense though, Toronto's thirtieth dead last, So like I said,
31:40
Speaker 2: the Red Sox do have the better bullpend here. They
31:42
Speaker 2: do have the better offense here, and if anybody's gonna
31:46
Speaker 2: stop this fucking slide, let's go. My man Peyton totally
31:51
Speaker 2: is on the mound here, three point two era one
31:54
Speaker 2: point one whip. He's young, but he's not really up
31:57
Speaker 2: that high in his innings count. Yet he's got a
32:00
Speaker 2: good strikeout walker ratio here. Had a ton of strikeouts
32:03
Speaker 2: in his last game. His strikeouts for nine really good.
32:07
Speaker 2: Over ten, Yeah, that's pretty good. Had fourteen strikeouts at
32:11
Speaker 2: six innings. Last time I was saying I wanted him
32:14
Speaker 2: to I was in the middle of all the hype, man.
32:16
Speaker 2: I was like, let him go for the record, man,
32:19
Speaker 2: let him go for twenty. But at this point, because
32:21
Speaker 2: they can't win a fucking game, I'm glad that they didn't.
32:24
Speaker 2: They're like, nope, let's keep him on a pitch count here,
32:27
Speaker 2: not let him go over like ninety pitches year. Keep
32:30
Speaker 2: him fresh enough. I actually like that they're not overworking him,
32:34
Speaker 2: even though he had a shit ton of strikeouts there.
32:37
Speaker 2: He's in good form right now. He's pitching really well
32:39
Speaker 2: right now, striking a bunch of guys out, low hit rate,
32:42
Speaker 2: doesn't really walk many guys, high strikeout rate. Let's go
32:47
Speaker 2: win this fucking game, man. He said two starts against
32:50
Speaker 2: Toronto this year, and they really weren't that good. So
32:53
Speaker 2: that is kind of concerning. The first one was quite
32:55
Speaker 2: bad actually here in Toronto. It was early in the season.
32:59
Speaker 2: I don't know if we should really take that much
33:00
Speaker 2: away from it. And this current Toronto lineup hasn't done
33:04
Speaker 2: that well against him in twenty eight at bats two
33:06
Speaker 2: fourteen average seven to twenty six oh ps is a
33:09
Speaker 2: little bit questionable. Uh, they have five walks against him,
33:12
Speaker 2: that's why seven strikeouts, don't walk as many guys. And
33:17
Speaker 2: you know, I think he's gonna be fine if he
33:19
Speaker 2: doesn't walk that many guys. And he's going up against
33:22
Speaker 2: Max Schurzer. So we have like a twenty year age
33:24
Speaker 2: gap here. It's very inappropriate between these two starters here.
33:30
Speaker 2: Why shurs are still out there, I don't know. But
33:32
Speaker 2: he's actually been better in his last two starts. But
33:34
Speaker 2: I'm I'm telling you, man, if the Red Socks can't
33:37
Speaker 2: win this game with this matchup, yeah it's over. It's
33:42
Speaker 2: completely over. Shurs Are has a seven point twenty five
33:45
Speaker 2: YRA one point five to three whip. Not good. He's
33:49
Speaker 2: been awful at home nine point eight to two Homy
33:52
Speaker 2: Ray last two starts were both pretty good, though one
33:54
Speaker 2: was at home against Saint Louis. The other was on
33:57
Speaker 2: the road at Philly, which was not quite as good.
33:59
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah he's better. He's been better in those
34:01
Speaker 2: two starts and he has been for pretty much the
34:03
Speaker 2: rest of the season. Is that that much of an indicator.
34:06
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, his hit rate is still high,
34:08
Speaker 2: his walk rate is still too high, his strikeout rate
34:11
Speaker 2: is still not impressive. Overall strike out walk ratio, yeah,
34:15
Speaker 2: is bad. It's below two. It's a small sample size though,
34:19
Speaker 2: case per nine, way down from what he used to do.
34:22
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at what he used to do.
34:23
Speaker 2: He used to strike out twelve thirteen per nine. This
34:27
Speaker 2: guy was just shredding man. He was on like Washington
34:29
Speaker 2: and whatever. Hasn't been that way for quite a while.
34:34
Speaker 2: And he's also not good against the Red Sox. By
34:36
Speaker 2: the way, this current iteration of the Red Sox lineup
34:39
Speaker 2: has forty five at bats against him two to eighty
34:41
Speaker 2: nine average, eight twenty two ohps, eleven to three strike
34:44
Speaker 2: out walk ration. That's including an zero for three from
34:47
Speaker 2: Sunny Gray in there. Yeah, we could throw that out.
34:50
Speaker 2: So the Red Sox actually are actually better against him
34:52
Speaker 2: than this makes it look. Yoshida actually really gets to him,
34:56
Speaker 2: so he bettered me in the fucking line up here.
35:00
Speaker 2: Looks like some of these lefties do pretty well against Schurzer.
35:05
Speaker 2: I lean to the Red Sox here. The problem is
35:07
Speaker 2: you gotta lay like minus one fifty something here. So
35:10
Speaker 2: if you're gonna play the Red Sox, you gotta lay
35:12
Speaker 2: like a minus one run line you got, or make
35:14
Speaker 2: your own minus one run line. I don't really want
35:17
Speaker 2: to do it. I don't really trust this offense. I
35:20
Speaker 2: don't trust the way the team's playing right now. The
35:22
Speaker 2: money looks like it might agree with it, even though
35:24
Speaker 2: the public is kind of still coming in on the
35:26
Speaker 2: Red Sox as well. Seventy eight percent of the tickets,
35:29
Speaker 2: eighty three percent of the cash on the Red Sox,
35:32
Speaker 2: the totals at eight. The money's coming in on the over,
35:35
Speaker 2: you know, I mean one other way of playing this,
35:39
Speaker 2: I don't I wouldn't really want to take totally out
35:41
Speaker 2: of the equation, though, But I was gonna say, you
35:42
Speaker 2: could play the Red Sox over their team total here,
35:45
Speaker 2: but you're gonna need to score at probably five runs,
35:49
Speaker 2: maybe more than that, And that's kind of an ask
35:51
Speaker 2: for an offense that hasn't been good recently. So I
35:54
Speaker 2: don't know. Man, Yeah, I still think the better way
35:56
Speaker 2: to play that is to just lay the minus one
35:58
Speaker 2: run line with the Red Sox and then if they
36:00
Speaker 2: win by any margin, you'll you at least won't lose
36:03
Speaker 2: money on it. Yeah, Zach Wheeler, Dude, I talked about
36:07
Speaker 2: at the beginning of the show. You can go back
36:09
Speaker 2: and watch it. You think I'm happy about that? That
36:12
Speaker 2: was the one winner. We should have gone one and
36:14
Speaker 2: won yesterday. That game should have been a win with
36:18
Speaker 2: that under That's such fucking bullshit. It is such bullshit.
36:22
Speaker 2: He was cruising into that inning too, and that's a
36:24
Speaker 2: bad offense. Pitcher friendly park. Wheeler is a fucking ace.
36:28
Speaker 2: And it's not like he's some young guy that isn't
36:30
Speaker 2: used to throwing this many innings. He's definitely used to it.
36:33
Speaker 2: I don't know what the fuck that was, Wheeler. There's
36:37
Speaker 2: something off about him. Man, his last like four starts
36:40
Speaker 2: or so whatever, he hasn't really been as good. I
36:42
Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know what's going on. All right,
36:45
Speaker 2: Cubs and Washington. This is the end of this series,
36:49
Speaker 2: I believe. Yeah, so Washington's on the verge of getting
36:51
Speaker 2: swept and they are a home team. Washington's been giving
36:54
Speaker 2: up a ton of runs in this series. Washington pitching
36:57
Speaker 2: not good. It looks like a Kent in his debut today.
37:00
Speaker 2: By the way, they designated Micholas for assignment. I'm pretty sure.
37:04
Speaker 2: So they basically cut him and brought up Kent, and
37:08
Speaker 2: it looks like he was awful. Micholas would have been better.
37:11
Speaker 2: I should have stuck to my guns with my over
37:13
Speaker 2: opinion on yesterday's game. That would have been an easy
37:15
Speaker 2: one anyway. The Cubs might overlook Washington here now that
37:19
Speaker 2: they're already on the version of the sweep here. You
37:22
Speaker 2: know what I say, home team trying to avoid a
37:24
Speaker 2: sweet especially when you're getting aim is an underdog. There
37:27
Speaker 2: might be something to looking that way. However, when you
37:29
Speaker 2: dig into the matchup numbers here, I don't think it's
37:31
Speaker 2: really gonna be that good to look at Washington here.
37:34
Speaker 2: The Cubs play Saint Louis next, they might look ahead
37:36
Speaker 2: to that. I mean, that's a divisional series. It'll be
37:39
Speaker 2: on Apple TV. It's gonna be a Friday afternoon Wrigley
37:43
Speaker 2: game again tomorrow, so they might look ahead to that.
37:46
Speaker 2: Saint Louis is kind of still in the mix there somehow.
37:49
Speaker 2: I think even though they sold the trade deadline, the
37:53
Speaker 2: Cubs have the better bullpen here. Cubs only use one
37:57
Speaker 2: guy a sod yesterdays. Their bull and is also pretty
38:00
Speaker 2: rested here. Washington's bullpen is not very good. They used
38:04
Speaker 2: four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Cubs are number
38:07
Speaker 2: twelve in bullpen, Washington is number twenty six. Cubs obviously
38:13
Speaker 2: better there. Cubs are number three offensive, the Washington number one,
38:16
Speaker 2: so Washington's had the better offense or yeah, slightly. Both
38:20
Speaker 2: offense have been really good, which is another reason why
38:23
Speaker 2: you know, some overs kind of makes sense here. This
38:24
Speaker 2: has been a very over series. This game might not
38:28
Speaker 2: be though. This is one of the better pitching matchups
38:31
Speaker 2: in the series. Kevin Goustman is pitching for the Cubs
38:34
Speaker 2: four point two ninety IRA one point twenty six, with
38:37
Speaker 2: most of that with Toronto. He's been good, you know,
38:40
Speaker 2: over his recent years whatever, but he started kind of
38:43
Speaker 2: not doing so well with Toronto. To change the scenery
38:46
Speaker 2: might actually help him because he's now on a contending
38:48
Speaker 2: team and he has been a little bit better in
38:50
Speaker 2: his Cubs start so far. He does have a five
38:53
Speaker 2: point oh two Roady Ray though, which is not that
38:56
Speaker 2: good obviously, but he does have a better road opponent
38:58
Speaker 2: batting average. Interestingly, his two starts with the Cubs. He
39:03
Speaker 2: gave up too many hits against Saint Louis, but that
39:05
Speaker 2: was in Chicago, but he did hold them off the
39:07
Speaker 2: board pretty much, and then he had a nice start
39:09
Speaker 2: last time out at the Royals. So he looks like
39:12
Speaker 2: maybe he's kind of coming back into for him a
39:13
Speaker 2: little bit here. As far as his overall numbers, I mean,
39:18
Speaker 2: his numbers are still kind of okay here this year.
39:21
Speaker 2: Like strikeout walk ratios in the high threes this season.
39:25
Speaker 2: That's not bad. Actually, did I make a mistake that
39:28
Speaker 2: might have been his only start? Let me see, Actually
39:32
Speaker 2: he's only made one start with the Cubs. My mistake,
39:34
Speaker 2: So only that last start was with the Cubs. I apologize.
39:37
Speaker 2: So the Saint Louis start was actually still with Toronto,
39:40
Speaker 2: so his one start with the Cubs was pretty good.
39:44
Speaker 2: And yeah, strikeouts per nine whatever, I mean, Yeah, he's
39:49
Speaker 2: right around nine, which is not bad. Although his last
39:52
Speaker 2: game he didn't have that many strikeouts, but whatever, that
39:54
Speaker 2: was one game. Numbers against Washington, they only have three
39:57
Speaker 2: hitters who have faced him. CJ. Abrams done some damage.
40:00
Speaker 2: He's four for six, but the rest of this lineup
40:03
Speaker 2: has done nothing against him, and most of them haven't
40:05
Speaker 2: seen him. They have four strikeouts, no walks. They do
40:07
Speaker 2: have a three to zero eight average, but I don't
40:09
Speaker 2: think that means much when it's all basically Washington's best
40:13
Speaker 2: hit or doing it and then six fifteen ops, so
40:18
Speaker 2: the OPS is still pretty low. Gousman might match up okay.
40:21
Speaker 2: Here Kate Cavali is pitching for Washington. He's a young
40:24
Speaker 2: guy who's got some talent. Three point five to seven
40:27
Speaker 2: y RRA, one point three whip not really that good though.
40:30
Speaker 2: He is worse at home three point eight to eight
40:32
Speaker 2: Homie Ray, so that's not quite as good. He's got
40:34
Speaker 2: a decent strikeout walk ratio here this year, so that's
40:37
Speaker 2: not a bad number there. Strikeouts per nine look pretty
40:40
Speaker 2: good this year, about ten, so he's got some nice
40:43
Speaker 2: strikeout stuff, So that's what I'm saying. That does tell
40:45
Speaker 2: you he's got some talent here. He's been pitching pretty
40:48
Speaker 2: well over the past like month plus now. He's really
40:50
Speaker 2: not allowed many runs. He's allowed no more than three
40:53
Speaker 2: on runs in any out and going all the way
40:55
Speaker 2: back into early June. Some of these have not been
40:58
Speaker 2: deep outings though. Still his hit rate is actually still
41:02
Speaker 2: you know, it's mediocre. It's at one per innings. Walk
41:04
Speaker 2: rate is just kind of okay, I would say, but
41:08
Speaker 2: his strike out rate is high, so that helps his ratio.
41:11
Speaker 2: There gets a lot of strikeouts against the Cubs, though
41:14
Speaker 2: hasn't really been that good most of the hitters have
41:16
Speaker 2: faced him. But it's only fourteen at bats two eighty
41:19
Speaker 2: six average, seven to sixty nine ohps, five to three
41:22
Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio. So I do not want to
41:24
Speaker 2: back Washington here. I actually think they have the lesser
41:28
Speaker 2: of the starting pitching matchup bear, even if you do
41:30
Speaker 2: the Cavale while he's younger, he has higher upside than Goussman.
41:34
Speaker 2: Maybe that's true, but I don't know if that's enough here. Plus,
41:37
Speaker 2: the Cubs do have the better bullpen as well. So
41:39
Speaker 2: if you're gonna play Washington at all, I think you
41:41
Speaker 2: can only do it in the first five. I don't
41:45
Speaker 2: think I even want to do that. Though Cubs are
41:47
Speaker 2: at minus one forty here eighty one percent. That takets
41:50
Speaker 2: ninety four percent of the cash on the Cubs. Again,
41:52
Speaker 2: they're not in a good situation, though they might overlook
41:55
Speaker 2: Washington given that they've already won the series. The price
41:59
Speaker 2: I think you're paying for it. You know, the Cubs
42:01
Speaker 2: have the better record, they have the more name a
42:03
Speaker 2: pitcher on them out here, so I think you're kind
42:05
Speaker 2: of paying for that if you're gonna try to back
42:08
Speaker 2: the Cubs here. I don't know, man. The money's also
42:11
Speaker 2: coming in the over eight and a half. I could
42:13
Speaker 2: see that, because again, you got I don't necessarily love
42:18
Speaker 2: either bullpen, and I could see maybe both starters giving
42:21
Speaker 2: up at least a little something here, so there probably
42:24
Speaker 2: are more indicators towards an over than an under. I
42:26
Speaker 2: think I do lean to the Cubs slightly though in
42:28
Speaker 2: this one, even though I don't like the situation at all,
42:31
Speaker 2: but I think the matchup my Trump that a little bit.
42:34
Speaker 2: There's no way I'm gonna do it though. Yeah. That's yeah,
42:38
Speaker 2: not a game I'm getting involved in at all. Next
42:41
Speaker 2: up the primetime game, which is why there are no
42:44
Speaker 2: other games at primetime. Here you get this Netflix special
42:48
Speaker 2: isolated here, which is the Field of Dreams game, and
42:51
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna be multiple of these with different teams.
42:55
Speaker 2: This is the first one of the season. I think
42:56
Speaker 2: they've done this before Philadelphia and Minnesota. They're playing in
43:00
Speaker 2: whatever what is it, Dyersville Iowa, whatever the fuck it
43:04
Speaker 2: is somewhere an eye wherever the field of Dreams field is.
43:07
Speaker 2: The ghosts of players pass are gonna come out man
43:10
Speaker 2: and haunt the game. Or no, they're They're good ghosts, right,
43:14
Speaker 2: do I remember it correctly? Kevin Costner is gonna be there,
43:17
Speaker 2: you know, I have no idea. I have no idea,
43:19
Speaker 2: but that is what this is. They're playing in the cornfields.
43:22
Speaker 2: Minnesota is sort of the semi home team here because
43:25
Speaker 2: they're closer to the location of this field. Obviously, it's
43:30
Speaker 2: a lot closer to Minnesota. Philadelphia is already in this
43:33
Speaker 2: area though, because they just came off that series against
43:35
Speaker 2: Saint Louis where they didn't do well, so they might
43:38
Speaker 2: be in a bounce back mode here after a just yeah,
43:41
Speaker 2: fuck Zach Wheeler is all I got to say about that.
43:44
Speaker 2: Philadelphia might be more in bounced back mode. Just change environments,
43:48
Speaker 2: go focus on this game. Minnesota is not going to
43:50
Speaker 2: overlook this z e either though, because this is the
43:52
Speaker 2: big Netflix special whatever. They get to host it sort of,
43:55
Speaker 2: and Minnesota is still delusionally trying to make the playoffs
44:00
Speaker 2: here and they're actually winning games recently, so all right,
44:05
Speaker 2: they just won that series against the Orioles. They're still
44:07
Speaker 2: right there in the mix here. Ridiculous as a horror. No,
44:14
Speaker 2: they're they're pleasant ghosts. It's all about nostalgia and it's
44:20
Speaker 2: a drama and whatever. I don't know. I never liked
44:23
Speaker 2: the movie, by the way, I'm not a fan of it.
44:26
Speaker 2: I like baseball movies. That one is not close to
44:29
Speaker 2: one of my favorites. The way better movie, by the way,
44:32
Speaker 2: with the Twins going here, Little big League is better.
44:36
Speaker 2: Nobody's gonna like me for that one. Little Big League
44:39
Speaker 2: is better than than Field of Dreams. Man Field of
44:43
Speaker 2: Dreams just kind of gay. I'm sorry it is. I
44:45
Speaker 2: like baseball. I like baseball history. I don't know. I
44:48
Speaker 2: thought that movie is just gay. It's schlock. Little Big League,
44:53
Speaker 2: if you haven't seen it, is a movie, I believe
44:55
Speaker 2: from the nineties. I remember watching it growing up, where
44:58
Speaker 2: a kid winds up being the owner of the Minnesota Twins,
45:03
Speaker 2: and it's a comedy, like a PG comedy. A lot
45:06
Speaker 2: of wild stuff happens in it. Yeah, check that movie out.
45:09
Speaker 2: It's good. I like it. I might have to watch
45:12
Speaker 2: it again for nostalgia, but I don't remember it too well.
45:15
Speaker 2: But I remember liking it. You haven't seen either, you
45:18
Speaker 2: better get on them. I've seen most baseball movies. I
45:21
Speaker 2: would say, I can't really think of a common baseball
45:25
Speaker 2: movie that I haven't seen. I think i've seen them all.
45:28
Speaker 2: Major League is still the best, which I rewatched not
45:32
Speaker 2: too long ago. You can't really beat that, though, wild Thing.
45:36
Speaker 2: I watched Rookie of the Year recently too. Speaking of
45:38
Speaker 2: the Cobs they're playing today, we just talked about them.
45:41
Speaker 2: We're talking about teams that are involved in movies all
45:43
Speaker 2: over the place here. The Red Sox are Oh, that's
45:46
Speaker 2: another movie that's not good. Fever Pitch the Red Sox,
45:49
Speaker 2: Jimmy Fallon, Drew Barrymore movie not great, even though it's
45:54
Speaker 2: a Red Sox movie. I'm not an extra in that
45:56
Speaker 2: one now, even though they filmed some of it at Fenway.
46:00
Speaker 2: Not a fan of that one anyway. Yeah, Rookie of
46:05
Speaker 2: the Year I had a lot. I enjoyed watching that
46:08
Speaker 2: one again. Man, that's the one where the kid breaks
46:10
Speaker 2: his arm and he becomes like a flame thrower because
46:14
Speaker 2: his arm heels in this weird way, so you could
46:16
Speaker 2: throw like one hundred miles an hour, and he winds
46:18
Speaker 2: up as a picture for the Cubs, even though he's
46:21
Speaker 2: like twelve years old. Whatever. It's got Gary Busey, who
46:25
Speaker 2: becomes like his father figure in it, even though he's
46:27
Speaker 2: like the I don't know, like former alcoholic old pitcher
46:32
Speaker 2: that's still on the team. Yeah, rookie of the year.
46:36
Speaker 2: Good movie, all right, anyway, I'm rambling here. Man. At
46:40
Speaker 2: least it's a Thursday and they're out that many games,
46:42
Speaker 2: so I still have to talk about NFL preseason this
46:46
Speaker 2: game Philadelphia and Minnesota. Though we know that these bullpens
46:49
Speaker 2: are not very good. Four relievers came in from Minnesota yesterday.
46:54
Speaker 2: They're not a good bullpen. They're worse than Philadelphia. Philadelphia
46:57
Speaker 2: used three. I don't like either bullpen. Philadelphia is nineteenth,
47:01
Speaker 2: Minnesota is twenty eighth. So yeah, I would avoid both
47:05
Speaker 2: bullpens here, and they both saw some usage yesterday. Minnesota's
47:08
Speaker 2: been the better offense their twelfth, Philadelphia is twenty first.
47:13
Speaker 2: Looking at the total in this game, it's like right
47:15
Speaker 2: in no man's land, around eight eight and a half.
47:17
Speaker 2: So I don't think. I don't think there's anything about
47:20
Speaker 2: the stadium that makes it particularly hit or friendly or well,
47:24
Speaker 2: obviously not, but I don't think there's anything that really
47:27
Speaker 2: makes it particularly pitcher friendly either. It just seems like
47:29
Speaker 2: it's kind of a normal stadium for that. Aaron Nola
47:33
Speaker 2: is getting the start for Philadelphia, not having a good season,
47:37
Speaker 2: not really been able to return from injury, which he
47:39
Speaker 2: has been trying to do that since last year. However,
47:42
Speaker 2: at the end of last year he started pitching better,
47:44
Speaker 2: and it looks like he's doing that again here. Even
47:46
Speaker 2: though his overall numbers are bad five point four to
47:48
Speaker 2: seveny RA, one point four or five WHIP. He's better
47:51
Speaker 2: on the road though, four point seven to six roady RA,
47:55
Speaker 2: and he's pitching better recently here. He's allowed three or
47:58
Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in all but one start since the
48:01
Speaker 2: beginning of July, and his strikeout walk ratio has been
48:04
Speaker 2: fairly decent over that span, so he's not pitching too
48:07
Speaker 2: poorly right now. I have in the Philadelphia's losing all
48:10
Speaker 2: of his starts, but some of that isn't his fault.
48:13
Speaker 2: His hit rate is still too high, though, and he's
48:14
Speaker 2: a lot a ton of home runs, so that needs
48:17
Speaker 2: to be fixed. And the home run issue is still
48:20
Speaker 2: is still an issue. He's still along home runs, so
48:22
Speaker 2: that's not good. But his strikeout walk ratio isn't too
48:26
Speaker 2: bad here. His walk rate's not that bad. His strike
48:28
Speaker 2: out rate is still fairly high. It's above nine nine
48:32
Speaker 2: per nine, So his strike out rate is not really
48:34
Speaker 2: that bad here right now. It's not quite what it
48:36
Speaker 2: once was, but it hasn't totally fallen off. And his
48:40
Speaker 2: stragot walk ratio, I think is yeah, it's like right
48:42
Speaker 2: at three, so that's not too bad either. So I
48:44
Speaker 2: don't think Nola is quite as bad as maybe we
48:48
Speaker 2: think right now. Against Minnesota, he's been pretty good. Sixty
48:52
Speaker 2: nine at bats so though forty one of them are
48:54
Speaker 2: Josh Bell, because Bell was in Nola's division for a
48:57
Speaker 2: long time. On Washington, Bell has hit for power against somebody.
49:01
Speaker 2: He hasn't really done much else. They got thirteen strikeouts,
49:04
Speaker 2: two walks only if seven of their hitters have faced him.
49:07
Speaker 2: But of course Bell forty one of the sixty nine
49:09
Speaker 2: at bats, but Nole has held him to a one
49:11
Speaker 2: to forty five average four to eighty eight ohps. Nobody
49:15
Speaker 2: in this lineup has really done much against him, man,
49:17
Speaker 2: so I think Nola actually might pitch well here. He's
49:20
Speaker 2: going up against todj Bradley from Minnesota who's having his
49:24
Speaker 2: best season three point seven to six ERA one point
49:26
Speaker 2: twenty five whip is okay. He's been good at home,
49:29
Speaker 2: although this is not Minnesota's home stadium here three point
49:32
Speaker 2: one two ERA at home. Don't know how that's going
49:35
Speaker 2: to translate into this semi home game, ish, if you
49:38
Speaker 2: want to call it that. Bradley, he's striking out a
49:42
Speaker 2: lot of guys here, but he's also walking a lot
49:44
Speaker 2: of guys. That is kind of the issue that's always
49:46
Speaker 2: really kind of been the issue with him, as the walks.
49:48
Speaker 2: He's got a lot of strikeout ability, so he's got
49:50
Speaker 2: talent here. He's hard to hit, but yeah, the walks
49:54
Speaker 2: are an issue with him. Strike out walk ratio because
49:58
Speaker 2: of the walks is still not really that goo. It's
50:00
Speaker 2: still below three. That's kind of the problem. You don't
50:02
Speaker 2: want to have a strago walk ratio below three when
50:05
Speaker 2: your strikeouts per nine is over ten. That's what he's
50:09
Speaker 2: got going on this year. Yeah, that means you're walking
50:11
Speaker 2: way too many guys, man, But he has the strikeout stuff,
50:14
Speaker 2: so that's good against Philly, though he's been not so
50:17
Speaker 2: good in seventy at bats twenty three to five strikele
50:20
Speaker 2: walk ratio two eighty six average eight. Oh no, wait,
50:23
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Baltimore. Sorry, Philly against Philly three hundred average.
50:28
Speaker 2: That's not good either. I was like, wait, Gunner Henderson
50:30
Speaker 2: got traded, but no twenty at bats against Philly, my mistake.
50:34
Speaker 2: Three hundred batting average though one thousand, sixty four oh ps,
50:37
Speaker 2: seven to two strikeout walk racio. Seah Bradley has not
50:40
Speaker 2: been good against Philly. So when I first looked at this,
50:43
Speaker 2: I was thinking maybe a lean towards Minnesota verse five
50:47
Speaker 2: or something, or maybe and the money he does agree
50:49
Speaker 2: with Minnesota, by the way, sixty three percent of tickets
50:51
Speaker 2: on Philly, fifty one percent of the cash on Minnesota.
50:55
Speaker 2: Looking at those matchup numbers, I don't agree with that.
50:57
Speaker 2: I think I actually leave Philadelphia here, even though I
51:00
Speaker 2: think Philadelphia is not as good as the record looks.
51:03
Speaker 2: I don't think Minnesota is as good as the record
51:05
Speaker 2: looks either, So I think we have two overrated teams here.
51:08
Speaker 2: I think given the pitching matchup here, given the recent form,
51:12
Speaker 2: Nola is the one that's actually walking fewer people here.
51:15
Speaker 2: You might have to worry about the home run ball.
51:17
Speaker 2: But that is a little bit more flukey. I think
51:19
Speaker 2: I like Philly in this one, maybe full game, because
51:23
Speaker 2: I think their bullpen is at least better than Minnesota's.
51:26
Speaker 2: First five is an option as well, in my opinion,
51:28
Speaker 2: you'll get them right around to pick them probably no
51:31
Speaker 2: matter what you do. Money coming in in the over
51:35
Speaker 2: here as well. Over eight and a half, I don't
51:37
Speaker 2: really I don't know enough about the stadium to really
51:40
Speaker 2: know that much about it, but I mean, just looking
51:42
Speaker 2: at the pitching, I don't have a good opinion on
51:44
Speaker 2: the over versus the under. However, you get two kind
51:47
Speaker 2: of bad bullpens here and one starter with bad matchup numbers.
51:51
Speaker 2: Both starters have some issues, so yeah, probably the over
51:54
Speaker 2: makes more sense than the under, but that's not something
51:57
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get involved in it all. Yes, little big
52:01
Speaker 2: league you mean, yeah? I watch Angels in the Outfield
52:04
Speaker 2: a lot as a kid. Rookie of the Year not
52:06
Speaker 2: as much, but yeah, Angels in the Outfield is a classic.
52:10
Speaker 2: Speaking of which, Texas is playing the Angels. The Angels
52:14
Speaker 2: are on the verge of a sweep here, which is crazy.
52:17
Speaker 2: They're trying to play spoiler here against Texas, who is
52:21
Speaker 2: one and a half back of Houston in the Al West. Here,
52:24
Speaker 2: Seattle really fading here, Man, Texas, they gotta have motivation here, Man,
52:28
Speaker 2: Texas is the better team and now they're on the
52:30
Speaker 2: virgion of getting swept. You got it that Texas is
52:32
Speaker 2: gonna show up with motivation here. So I think the
52:35
Speaker 2: motivational angle is definitely on Texas here and the better team.
52:39
Speaker 2: The problem is you gotta lay a huge price with Texas,
52:42
Speaker 2: and if you're doing that, you're fading a young, talented
52:45
Speaker 2: pitcher that Anaheim has on the mound here. So I
52:47
Speaker 2: don't think I would want to pay that price for
52:49
Speaker 2: Texas here. And there's another good reason to not do
52:51
Speaker 2: that as well. Anaheim used three relief pitchers, just say
52:54
Speaker 2: they're bullpen is not good. Texas use four Texas bolthmen.
52:58
Speaker 2: Has been a big disappointment that year. There ain't eighteenth.
53:01
Speaker 2: They're not very good. Anaheim is a twenty second, so
53:05
Speaker 2: they're worse than Texas. Texas is eighteenth. In offense, Anaheim
53:10
Speaker 2: is worst. Anaheim is one of the worst offenses in baseball.
53:12
Speaker 2: They're twenty seventh. They've been really bad since the All
53:15
Speaker 2: Star break, and they're also really bad at home. So
53:17
Speaker 2: Anaheim does not hit well at home. I looked at
53:20
Speaker 2: this pitching matchup and I thought this is gonna be
53:22
Speaker 2: a first five under with du Gram and Urin yet.
53:25
Speaker 2: But then I started digging into it, and I don't
53:27
Speaker 2: want to do it, man, even though on the surface
53:30
Speaker 2: it does look like one of my first five unders.
53:32
Speaker 2: Jacob de Gram is pitching for Texas. He's having a
53:35
Speaker 2: good season despite how old he is. Three point eight
53:38
Speaker 2: seventy Ray, one point one to three whip. He's not
53:40
Speaker 2: as good on the road though. He's been kind of
53:43
Speaker 2: dominant at home in Texas's pitcher friendly park, but on
53:46
Speaker 2: the road four point eighty seven Roady Ray, so that's
53:49
Speaker 2: not as good. So that worris me. He's also considerably
53:52
Speaker 2: worse at night. By the way, for some reason, this
53:54
Speaker 2: is a night game to Grom. I mean, he's mostly
53:57
Speaker 2: pitching pretty well, though he had too many walks. He
53:59
Speaker 2: had a bad outing against Houston, but he's well. He's
54:02
Speaker 2: alternating kind of good and bad outings right now. But
54:04
Speaker 2: still for the most part he's been mostly good. Obviously,
54:07
Speaker 2: his hit rate is still not that high. He doesn't
54:09
Speaker 2: really walk anybody. His strike out rate is still quite high.
54:12
Speaker 2: Especially given how old he is. So you look at
54:14
Speaker 2: his overall numbers, they're going to be good. Yeah, Like
54:18
Speaker 2: his strike his strike out walk ratio is still pretty good.
54:21
Speaker 2: It's still close to a five year which is pretty crazy.
54:25
Speaker 2: He had some of his strikeout walk ratios here in
54:28
Speaker 2: some of these seasons, Like how do you make fifteen
54:31
Speaker 2: starts and have a strike out walk ratio that's twelve
54:35
Speaker 2: or thirteen Like that is so insane. That was back
54:37
Speaker 2: in twenty two with the Mets. I don't know how
54:41
Speaker 2: that's even possible, but whatever. He still has a strikeout
54:43
Speaker 2: walk ratio close to five year, which is really good.
54:47
Speaker 2: And his strike ups per nine is still quite high
54:49
Speaker 2: here around eleven. So yeah, he's good. Still good numbers.
54:55
Speaker 2: Getst Anaheim, though, this is where we start having problems.
54:57
Speaker 2: Anaheim for whatever reason, has done a lot of damn
55:00
Speaker 2: against him. Nido and Frasier and Darnault all hit him hard,
55:05
Speaker 2: and Trout has done okay against him as well. He's
55:07
Speaker 2: got seventy two at bats against them three nineteen average
55:10
Speaker 2: nine to seventy one OPS twenty six to eight StrEG
55:13
Speaker 2: out walker ratio. So this is not a good matchup
55:15
Speaker 2: for de Grom. So he's not in his good home
55:17
Speaker 2: road splits, not in his good home night splits, and
55:20
Speaker 2: he's not as good on the road, so that's not good.
55:24
Speaker 2: So I don't want to back to gram here. Walbert
55:26
Speaker 2: Irainia is a guy that I'm backed sometimes this year
55:29
Speaker 2: for Anaheim. He's got a lot of talent. Man, he's
55:32
Speaker 2: just got to stop walking people. That's his thing. He's
55:35
Speaker 2: twenty two, but he's obviously good. He's got a two
55:38
Speaker 2: point eight three e RA one point two nine whip
55:41
Speaker 2: is a little bit high. He's been really good at
55:42
Speaker 2: home though, two point four to nine home e RA plus.
55:46
Speaker 2: He actually walks few people at home as well, and
55:49
Speaker 2: his opponent batting average at home is one to eighty three,
55:51
Speaker 2: so that's pretty solid overall. Though his stregout walk ratio
55:56
Speaker 2: is actually really ugly, and it's mostly because his walk
55:59
Speaker 2: rate is way too high. Strike out rate is actually
56:01
Speaker 2: a little lower than I thought, not quite at nine
56:03
Speaker 2: per nine, but I think he's still pretty good. He's
56:07
Speaker 2: got good strike out stuff. However, his walks have been
56:10
Speaker 2: an issue really throughout the entire season, but recently the
56:13
Speaker 2: walks have been an issue again. That is definitely a
56:16
Speaker 2: concern at the very least, although his innings pitch count
56:18
Speaker 2: probably is not a concern yet, although it might be
56:21
Speaker 2: soon because again, these young pitchers aren't used to throwing
56:24
Speaker 2: this many innings. He's been basically unhittable, though he's very
56:27
Speaker 2: hard to hit. Doesn't a low many hits is a
56:30
Speaker 2: good strike up pitcher also gets a lot of ground balls,
56:32
Speaker 2: but again he's way too wild. That's the problem with him.
56:35
Speaker 2: His strikeout his walk rate is way too high. However,
56:39
Speaker 2: Texas has really been able to do nothing against him.
56:42
Speaker 2: They have twenty four at bats against him in eighty
56:45
Speaker 2: three average. The only extra base hit is a double
56:47
Speaker 2: from Nemo finding Nemo your fantasy baseball name of the day.
56:53
Speaker 2: Three sixty six ops against an eighty three up on
56:57
Speaker 2: a batting average against, but a seven to five strike
56:58
Speaker 2: out walk ratio. So again, that walk number is not good,
57:02
Speaker 2: but the rest of these numbers are good. Texas has
57:04
Speaker 2: been able to really do nothing against them other than
57:06
Speaker 2: draw walks. So I actually think Anaheim in the first
57:09
Speaker 2: five might actually make sense here given the matchup. Although
57:12
Speaker 2: the money's coming on into Texas, you know Texas needs
57:16
Speaker 2: to win. But when it's a need to win, scenario,
57:19
Speaker 2: and everybody knows Texas is the better team and they
57:22
Speaker 2: have a really name pitcher around the mountain. Like de Grom,
57:25
Speaker 2: you know you're not getting any value playing Texas. You can't.
57:28
Speaker 2: I don't think you lame minus one sixty with Texas here, man,
57:31
Speaker 2: I mean, I just gave you a bunch of good
57:32
Speaker 2: reasons to not do that. But the money looks like
57:35
Speaker 2: it kind of is sixty seven percent of the tickets
57:37
Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of the cash on Texas. I would
57:40
Speaker 2: lean Anaheim in the first five in this song, man,
57:43
Speaker 2: even though I do think Texas is going to be motivated,
57:45
Speaker 2: so I don't really want to do it. Worry a
57:47
Speaker 2: bit about your rain. Yet with all his walks, the
57:49
Speaker 2: money's also back in the over seven and a half,
57:52
Speaker 2: and I think I agree with that de Grom, like
57:55
Speaker 2: you would think, like my first instinct on this was
57:57
Speaker 2: oh first five under for sure, but full if you
58:01
Speaker 2: go full game, the over might make some sense here
58:04
Speaker 2: because the bullpens are not very good. De Gram has
58:07
Speaker 2: bad matchup numbers. Your rain yet, well, I think he's good,
58:10
Speaker 2: you know, maybe he gets into some walk issues, so
58:13
Speaker 2: there's not a lot of leeway with the seven and
58:14
Speaker 2: a half, although usually don't like going over a low
58:16
Speaker 2: total like that because the oddsmakers are kind of telling
58:18
Speaker 2: you they think it's gonna be a low scoring game.
58:21
Speaker 2: This one might go over, though, I'm not gonna come
58:24
Speaker 2: in and try to play the under there, even in
58:26
Speaker 2: the first five. Though. If I was gonna play the under,
58:28
Speaker 2: I would only do it in the first five, of course,
58:31
Speaker 2: which still might be. You know, I wouldn't beat you
58:34
Speaker 2: up if you did try to do that, because you
58:36
Speaker 2: do still have two good pitchers there, so I wouldn't
58:38
Speaker 2: even Really that's it's weird, but I kind of lean
58:40
Speaker 2: over full game, and I kind of lean under in
58:42
Speaker 2: the first five, which usually means I'm not gonna be
58:44
Speaker 2: playing the game. Dodgers and Brewers, this is a huge
58:48
Speaker 2: weekend series here, teams fighting for the top scene in
58:53
Speaker 2: the NL somewhat, if you want to call it that.
58:54
Speaker 2: I think Milwaukee has the better record right now, neither
58:57
Speaker 2: Milwaukee has not been playing. Yeah, Milwaukee's only one game
59:00
Speaker 2: ahead of the Dodgers. Now. Milwaukee hasn't been playing well recently,
59:04
Speaker 2: and the Dodgers just went on a slide, but they're
59:06
Speaker 2: kind of out of that now as they just swept
59:09
Speaker 2: the Royals, but the Dodgers didn't dominate that series. They
59:12
Speaker 2: won every game by two or fewer runs. But the
59:15
Speaker 2: Dodgers have some momentum now, you know. I mean, they're
59:18
Speaker 2: not gonna be overconfident after beating the Royals, and they're
59:20
Speaker 2: probably gonna show up for a series against Milwaukee. The
59:23
Speaker 2: Dodgers are staying at home. Milwaukee's already in the Pacific
59:28
Speaker 2: time zone. They just got swept in San Diego. And
59:31
Speaker 2: I did tell you San Diego was the more motivated
59:33
Speaker 2: team going into that series. Because Milwaukee, Milwaukee's already gonna
59:37
Speaker 2: make the playoffs. However, they do have to worry about
59:39
Speaker 2: the Cubs being right on their ass now. So it's
59:42
Speaker 2: not guaranteed Milwaukee's gonna win the NL Central now, though
59:45
Speaker 2: it is guaranteed they'll make the playoffs. I don't want
59:48
Speaker 2: to jigs anything, but I don't think that's going out
59:49
Speaker 2: on a limb there. Yeah, so Milwaukee doesn't have to
59:53
Speaker 2: travel to the Pacific coast, they don't have to adjust
59:56
Speaker 2: their biological clock because they already did that. They're probably
59:59
Speaker 2: gonna show coming off kind of an ugly sweep at
1:00:02
Speaker 2: the hands of San Diego. They're playing the Dodgers, you
1:00:04
Speaker 2: gotta think they're gonna show up here. And Milwaukee probably
1:00:07
Speaker 2: has the better starting pitcher on the mound here as well.
1:00:10
Speaker 2: Even though the Dodgers are the better team overall and
1:00:13
Speaker 2: they are the favorite, but are they really that much
1:00:15
Speaker 2: better the Milwaukee I don't know, man, I think it's
1:00:17
Speaker 2: kind of close. And given that Milwaukee might have the
1:00:19
Speaker 2: better starter here, there are definitely some arguments to play
1:00:23
Speaker 2: Milwaukee in this game, I'll tell you that, and I
1:00:25
Speaker 2: think I would consider it at the very least. Oh yeah,
1:00:29
Speaker 2: I was gonna say Texas they're already in Anna because
1:00:31
Speaker 2: I was like, oh, Texas, they're going to the Pacific
1:00:34
Speaker 2: Coast too, But they're already out there because they're already
1:00:35
Speaker 2: in Anaheim. So whatever, we don't have to worry about
1:00:38
Speaker 2: either Texas or Milwaukee adjusting their biological clocks here. Dodgers
1:00:44
Speaker 2: don't have a better bullpen than Milwaukee, even though they
1:00:47
Speaker 2: only use one guy out of the bullpen. It was
1:00:48
Speaker 2: land and Knack, who I kind of remember pitching in
1:00:52
Speaker 2: the Dodgers' rotation for a little bit I think last year.
1:00:55
Speaker 2: So he's a long relief guy. So the Dodgers' bullpen
1:00:57
Speaker 2: is very clear right now their rest after yesterday. Milwaukee
1:01:01
Speaker 2: did use four guys, including their closer. So Milwaukee their
1:01:05
Speaker 2: bullpen's in worse shape than the Dodgers here. Even though
1:01:08
Speaker 2: Milwaukee is the better bullpen. They ranked eighth, the Dodgers
1:01:11
Speaker 2: are ranked eleventh. But the bullpens are a little bit
1:01:14
Speaker 2: closer in this matchup just because of the rest there.
1:01:17
Speaker 2: Dodgers are number two offensively, Milwaukee number nine. There's really
1:01:20
Speaker 2: not much of a gap here between these two teams,
1:01:23
Speaker 2: I think, in either the bullpen or the offense. Shane
1:01:27
Speaker 2: Drohan is pitching for Milwaukee still ESPN They're like, yeah,
1:01:33
Speaker 2: we don't care. This guy doesn't get a headshot whatever.
1:01:36
Speaker 2: You know, he looks like Milwaukee's logo. Maybe that is
1:01:40
Speaker 2: a picture of him. Does he look like that? Who knows?
1:01:42
Speaker 2: Drohan has been pretty good three point eight seveny Arrayo.
1:01:45
Speaker 2: The one point two to five whip is getting a
1:01:47
Speaker 2: little bit high here. He's been good on the road
1:01:49
Speaker 2: three point one to three Roady array. One thing you
1:01:52
Speaker 2: gotta worry with him is he's young, so you gotta
1:01:54
Speaker 2: worry about his innings count. But he's not that high yet.
1:01:57
Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate here, walk grade is okay,
1:01:59
Speaker 2: strike up rate is right at one per inning. Wasn't
1:02:02
Speaker 2: good in his last start against the Twins. Had way
1:02:04
Speaker 2: too many walks there, But maybe that was a bit
1:02:07
Speaker 2: of an outlier because he hasn't been that bad otherwise.
1:02:10
Speaker 2: Even though he give up some runs against the Rockies,
1:02:12
Speaker 2: he had good command still in that start, so it
1:02:14
Speaker 2: was a little bit misleading. I would say in that
1:02:17
Speaker 2: one numbers against La, you do have to worry about
1:02:21
Speaker 2: LA's offense being good. But La has not been able
1:02:24
Speaker 2: to hit him when they have seen him. They have
1:02:26
Speaker 2: fourteen at bats against him one forty three average. They
1:02:29
Speaker 2: do have some power, just because pie Ye's has a
1:02:31
Speaker 2: home run against him seven to fifty ops six to
1:02:34
Speaker 2: two string out walk ratio. But I think Drohan actually
1:02:37
Speaker 2: does have the upper hand here. I mean, the Dodgers
1:02:39
Speaker 2: only have two hits off him in fourteen at bats,
1:02:41
Speaker 2: so it's not like they've been able to kill him
1:02:44
Speaker 2: or anything like that, So I think Drohan might match
1:02:47
Speaker 2: up okay here. Roki Sasaki is pitching for the Dodgers,
1:02:50
Speaker 2: so you don't have any elite pitcher on the mound
1:02:52
Speaker 2: for the Dodgers here four point five to four ra
1:02:55
Speaker 2: for him, one point two eight whip is okay. He's
1:02:58
Speaker 2: a little bit better at home four point four to
1:03:00
Speaker 2: seven hold me. His opponent batting average on the road
1:03:03
Speaker 2: is actually better now, so that's interesting because typically he's
1:03:06
Speaker 2: been better at home. He's pitching okay recently though over
1:03:10
Speaker 2: the past like really month plus, he only has a
1:03:13
Speaker 2: couple of bad starts in there, has a pretty low
1:03:16
Speaker 2: hit radio. His walk rate is okay. He allows way
1:03:18
Speaker 2: too many home runs though, actually the walk rate is
1:03:20
Speaker 2: a little bit high. Strike out rate is decent. It's
1:03:24
Speaker 2: pretty good actually above one per inning. Sasaki against Milwaukee,
1:03:31
Speaker 2: he's been okay in twenty one at bats to thirty
1:03:33
Speaker 2: eight average a lot seven to sixty two oh ps
1:03:35
Speaker 2: is a little bit high, though they have a bunch
1:03:37
Speaker 2: of doubles against him and a four to three strike
1:03:39
Speaker 2: out walk ratio, so they have reached base against him
1:03:42
Speaker 2: a decent amount. As far as Sasaki, his strike out
1:03:45
Speaker 2: walk ratio is a little bit below three. It's not
1:03:47
Speaker 2: too bad, but it's not really what you want to see.
1:03:51
Speaker 2: Although I think he is figuring out how to pitch better,
1:03:53
Speaker 2: and his strike out walk ratio is pretty good, But
1:03:56
Speaker 2: I would prefer Drohan over Sasaki here, and you're getting
1:04:00
Speaker 2: Milwaukee is an underdog here, and I think it's a
1:04:01
Speaker 2: close matchup. So I like Milwaukee in this one, especially
1:04:05
Speaker 2: in the potential bounce back spot that they're in here. Drohan,
1:04:09
Speaker 2: by the way, if you care, he does have exactly
1:04:14
Speaker 2: nine strikeouts per nine. That's pretty solid and above that
1:04:18
Speaker 2: three strikeout walk ratio threshold. Yeah, the money seems to
1:04:23
Speaker 2: agree with Milwaukee here. Dodgers are around minus one fifty.
1:04:26
Speaker 2: They went up actually initially on the money line, but
1:04:28
Speaker 2: they have seventy three percent of tickets seventy percent of
1:04:31
Speaker 2: the cash on them, So the Dodgers are public. Oh,
1:04:33
Speaker 2: the Dodgers are winning again. But yeah, they beat they
1:04:37
Speaker 2: beat the Royals. Who cares, man, I would rather have
1:04:40
Speaker 2: Milwaukee here. I think if you take Milwaukee, you get
1:04:42
Speaker 2: the better starter, you debatably have the better bullpen, even
1:04:46
Speaker 2: though they use some of their bullpen arms there. But yeah,
1:04:48
Speaker 2: I like Milwaukee getting them as an underdog price there.
1:04:51
Speaker 2: I think I think the game's closer than what that
1:04:53
Speaker 2: line is suggesting to you, So I think there might
1:04:55
Speaker 2: be a little bit of value there. It's not a
1:04:57
Speaker 2: player or anything for me though. Money is also coming
1:04:59
Speaker 2: out on over in that one, so slightly do what
1:05:02
Speaker 2: you want with that. But that's an eight and a
1:05:04
Speaker 2: half total in that one, all right, and the money
1:05:09
Speaker 2: still disagree with my one baseball player, so that's awesome.
1:05:12
Speaker 3: All right.
1:05:12
Speaker 2: I'll be right back, and then we'll do WNBA and
1:05:17
Speaker 2: preseason NFL, which it's kind of exciting just to talk
1:05:22
Speaker 2: about football again. I'll be right back. Yep. Inside, I
1:05:30
Speaker 2: want to kill myself. We were on OWN seven run
1:05:34
Speaker 2: over the last two days after tonight. It was just
1:05:36
Speaker 2: complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start off this
1:05:40
Speaker 2: show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know
1:05:43
Speaker 2: what to tell you about that. I just don't want
1:05:46
Speaker 2: to do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this.
1:05:49
Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
1:05:54
Speaker 2: good day at all. Own four that have not had
1:05:59
Speaker 2: a good season. Man with wickens the slump that I'm on,
1:06:03
Speaker 2: and the slump continues, I've reached a new pink. Actually,
1:06:08
Speaker 2: I'm going to burn my browins hat man. I don't
1:06:10
Speaker 2: know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape.
1:06:13
Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
1:06:15
Speaker 2: it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man, I
1:06:19
Speaker 2: don't know what data is anymore. I'm not I don't
1:06:21
Speaker 2: even know what data is anymore. Man, Back with you
1:06:24
Speaker 2: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
1:06:27
Speaker 2: with you as I always am until I die, at
1:06:31
Speaker 2: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
1:06:34
Speaker 2: go well for me. Own five, the worst month that
1:06:38
Speaker 2: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
1:06:41
Speaker 2: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
1:06:43
Speaker 2: To the slumpers, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
1:06:48
Speaker 2: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
1:06:52
Speaker 2: should do at this point, other than potentially end it
1:06:55
Speaker 2: all all right, WNBA. I do have one play in
1:07:04
Speaker 2: the WNBA. I think it's a decent situation here. We
1:07:07
Speaker 2: have three games here. The first one is Atlanta Connecticut.
1:07:12
Speaker 2: I think I agree with the market reid in all
1:07:14
Speaker 2: three games, but I think the market read is actually
1:07:16
Speaker 2: the worst. In the one that I actually want to play.
1:07:18
Speaker 2: Connecticut just broke a losing streak with a win over Phoenix.
1:07:21
Speaker 2: I think Connecticut, even though that was an upset, they
1:07:24
Speaker 2: might be in a positive situation here because they're staying
1:07:28
Speaker 2: at home the rest, and they haven't played for almost
1:07:30
Speaker 2: a week and they ended a losing streak with their
1:07:32
Speaker 2: last game, So I don't think that this break is
1:07:35
Speaker 2: going to like disrupt momentum. I think that last win disrupted.
1:07:38
Speaker 2: They're losing momentum in my opinion, even though it's interesting
1:07:42
Speaker 2: because they were returning over from a road trip and
1:07:44
Speaker 2: they still got the job done there. I think Phoenix
1:07:47
Speaker 2: might have been looking ahead. I forget what their situation was.
1:07:50
Speaker 2: But Connecticut, They're not going to really overlook anybody here.
1:07:53
Speaker 2: Atlanta might overlook them because Connecticut is still I think
1:07:57
Speaker 2: the worst team in the league. I think they do
1:07:59
Speaker 2: have Britney Grime or back, for whatever that's worth. Connecticut does.
1:08:04
Speaker 2: I think he She did play for Atlanta at one
1:08:06
Speaker 2: point as well. Atlanta just beat Toronto pretty easily. They
1:08:10
Speaker 2: have less rest, they played on Monday, and they do
1:08:12
Speaker 2: have a big ESPN game coming up next against Indiana,
1:08:16
Speaker 2: and then they have to go to Vegas and play
1:08:17
Speaker 2: another ESPN game. So I think it's a look ahead.
1:08:21
Speaker 2: I think Atlanta could get caught looking past Connecticut here.
1:08:24
Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean to Connecticut. It's not it's not my play,
1:08:28
Speaker 2: but it seems pretty straightforward here. You're getting a bunch
1:08:31
Speaker 2: of points with Connecticut at home. The money seems like
1:08:33
Speaker 2: it strongly agrees with this. You're getting ten and a half.
1:08:36
Speaker 2: The total is not really that high in the one seventies.
1:08:39
Speaker 2: Atlanta is more of a defensive team as well, so
1:08:41
Speaker 2: that kind of helps if you're gonna fade them when
1:08:44
Speaker 2: they're a huge favorite. It's fifty fifty on the tickets,
1:08:46
Speaker 2: ninety three percent of the cash on Connecticut. I agree
1:08:50
Speaker 2: with that. I would play at Connecticut in that one
1:08:53
Speaker 2: if I was gonna play it. Second game is the
1:08:57
Speaker 2: first of the Amazon Prime doublehead or LA at New
1:08:59
Speaker 2: York or New York's gonna be a big favorite here
1:09:02
Speaker 2: and this is gonna be a high total because of
1:09:04
Speaker 2: course they could score and LA does not play good defense.
1:09:10
Speaker 2: New York just took a loss to Indiana. Again. Indiana
1:09:14
Speaker 2: seems like they might have their number. Man, I don't know.
1:09:18
Speaker 2: New York lost a four game win streak with that.
1:09:20
Speaker 2: After they blew out Vegas. They struggled against Indiana and
1:09:24
Speaker 2: lost by double digits in Indiana. Now they're back home
1:09:27
Speaker 2: for this. They don't really have anything to look ahead
1:09:30
Speaker 2: too though with Connecticut, So I think the only concern
1:09:32
Speaker 2: you're in New York really is that they lost a
1:09:34
Speaker 2: win streak, and that was kind of a big game
1:09:37
Speaker 2: against Indiana. So the question is are they gonna get
1:09:40
Speaker 2: back back up off the mad after that, or is
1:09:42
Speaker 2: that gonna hang them over because they lost that win streak, whatever,
1:09:46
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure. I think this is the most
1:09:47
Speaker 2: difficult game to handicap out all of these. They did
1:09:50
Speaker 2: just go to LA back on July twenty eighth and
1:09:52
Speaker 2: beat them in LA. They actually lost to them in
1:09:56
Speaker 2: LA earlier this year, and I don't think they played
1:09:58
Speaker 2: them in New York yet this year. They might still
1:10:00
Speaker 2: overlook them because LA is not playing well, and LA
1:10:03
Speaker 2: had Plum earlier in the season and she's gone now
1:10:06
Speaker 2: and she's hurt now right after Phoenix picked her up,
1:10:09
Speaker 2: and now she's hurt. That's great. LA just lost to Phoenix,
1:10:14
Speaker 2: speaking of which, with a game where Plumb didn't play,
1:10:17
Speaker 2: and LA still lost that game and they were at home,
1:10:20
Speaker 2: so LA is having to travel across the entire country
1:10:22
Speaker 2: with only one day off, So that's not really that
1:10:24
Speaker 2: easy to do that. But it's the start of a
1:10:27
Speaker 2: road trip. I don't think they're gonna overlook New York.
1:10:29
Speaker 2: It's just not really a horrendous spot for New York really,
1:10:32
Speaker 2: you know. And the travel spot is kind of worse
1:10:34
Speaker 2: for LA, even though traveling east is a lot easier
1:10:37
Speaker 2: than traveling west, like I say, because you're not gonna
1:10:40
Speaker 2: like you adjust your biological clock in the opposite way,
1:10:43
Speaker 2: and it's a lot easier to have to play. Oh,
1:10:45
Speaker 2: we're playing like a five PM game our time, Like,
1:10:47
Speaker 2: that's a lot easier than having to play a game
1:10:49
Speaker 2: that's gonna go till like midnight based on what your
1:10:52
Speaker 2: biological clock is accustomed to. This this is the hardest
1:10:56
Speaker 2: of the games to figure out. In my opinion, the
1:10:59
Speaker 2: money is backing LA here. New York is like an
1:11:02
Speaker 2: eight and a half point favorite. I don't have a
1:11:04
Speaker 2: reason to really disagree strongly with that. I mean, really,
1:11:07
Speaker 2: I think it's just kind of a numbers play, Like
1:11:09
Speaker 2: you pretty much know that you're not gonna be getting
1:11:11
Speaker 2: any value by laying the points for the better team here,
1:11:14
Speaker 2: which is New York. I just don't want to do it. Like,
1:11:16
Speaker 2: it's not that bad of a spot for them, and
1:11:19
Speaker 2: the travel spot is actually better for them fifty six
1:11:22
Speaker 2: percent of tickets fifty three percent of the cash on
1:11:24
Speaker 2: New York. I do agree slightly with the LA side there,
1:11:29
Speaker 2: but that's the weakest of these three games, I think,
1:11:32
Speaker 2: by far. So you know that means my play is
1:11:34
Speaker 2: the last of these and we're gonna zig zag. We're
1:11:43
Speaker 2: gonna take Washington. You know, I like taking Washington as
1:11:46
Speaker 2: an underdog man, and I don't like taking them as
1:11:48
Speaker 2: a favor. And it pissed me off when they covered
1:11:50
Speaker 2: against me as a favorite the other day. But all right, fine,
1:11:53
Speaker 2: if you can't beat them, join them. I'll go back
1:11:55
Speaker 2: and I'll take Washington in a role where they have
1:11:57
Speaker 2: been good for me as an underdog. Let's do it.
1:12:02
Speaker 2: This has a couple of things going for it. This
1:12:05
Speaker 2: is the late Amazon Prime game. Now, Washington just lost
1:12:08
Speaker 2: in Vegas, but think about what was going on there.
1:12:11
Speaker 2: First of all, they had to travel to the Pacific
1:12:13
Speaker 2: time zone for that, so Washington had to adjust to
1:12:15
Speaker 2: the time zone. Now that they've done that and they
1:12:18
Speaker 2: lost that game, they're already adjusted, so I think it's
1:12:20
Speaker 2: gonna be less bad for them this time. Like that
1:12:23
Speaker 2: was a big negative for them in that first game
1:12:25
Speaker 2: was the travel spot, and yes, they did lose a
1:12:27
Speaker 2: win streak. That does worry me a little bit. And
1:12:29
Speaker 2: they lost a seven game win streak here, and I
1:12:32
Speaker 2: don't like usually taking teams that lose a win streak
1:12:36
Speaker 2: like that because I think they'll be hung over. But
1:12:39
Speaker 2: they're not going to overlook Vegas, especially when they just
1:12:41
Speaker 2: lost to Vegas by ten. So Vegas covered this number.
1:12:45
Speaker 2: Vegas was really good in the second half of that game.
1:12:48
Speaker 2: They just pulled away in the second half. Vegas. You know,
1:12:51
Speaker 2: if you watch my show, you know I keep pointing
1:12:53
Speaker 2: out how they're not really that good at home, although
1:12:55
Speaker 2: now they're ten and five, but they've had some bad
1:12:57
Speaker 2: performances at home. I think they're actually a better road
1:13:00
Speaker 2: team than home team. And now Vegas did get that
1:13:02
Speaker 2: win and break a losing streak, but after beating Washington
1:13:06
Speaker 2: and now playing them again, I think Washington's gonna make
1:13:09
Speaker 2: the adjustments. That's why the zigzag kind of kind of works,
1:13:12
Speaker 2: because you fix what went wrong in that previous game
1:13:15
Speaker 2: if it was something fixable, and the team that won
1:13:18
Speaker 2: and possibly won easily, might just overlook the other team
1:13:21
Speaker 2: the next time and maybe look ahead. And yeah, that
1:13:23
Speaker 2: really might be what Vegas is gonna do, because look
1:13:25
Speaker 2: at their next game. It's a national TV game on
1:13:28
Speaker 2: CBS on Saturday night primetime against Minnesota, the best team
1:13:33
Speaker 2: in the league, and they just lost at Minnesota. So
1:13:35
Speaker 2: this is a revenge game they got going on against Minnesota,
1:13:39
Speaker 2: and people are saying it's the preview of the championship series.
1:13:43
Speaker 2: It's gonna happen this year too, because it is probably
1:13:46
Speaker 2: the two best teams in the league. So yeah, you
1:13:48
Speaker 2: want to talk about a look ahead, I think that
1:13:49
Speaker 2: might be it. And the next game after that, they're
1:13:52
Speaker 2: playing at Lanta on ESPN, also at home, so that's
1:13:55
Speaker 2: another big TV game, although they did beat Atlanta not
1:13:58
Speaker 2: that long ago, but I think it's at the released.
1:14:00
Speaker 2: This is a spot where it's a Zigzags. They might
1:14:02
Speaker 2: overlook Washington here, plus Minnesota's on decks, so that makes
1:14:06
Speaker 2: it kind of a sandwich spot here in my opinion.
1:14:10
Speaker 2: And for the Zigzag you know, like I say, you
1:14:12
Speaker 2: gotta look what outliers were there in that first game,
1:14:15
Speaker 2: Like what happened in this game? Okay, well, Washington was
1:14:18
Speaker 2: hanging around for a lot of this game. They were
1:14:20
Speaker 2: in the game. It was tied at halftime. I'm pretty
1:14:22
Speaker 2: sure Washington was actually winning, like right before half. Actually,
1:14:26
Speaker 2: I think they might have been winning by one at
1:14:27
Speaker 2: halftime whatever or no it was, I think it was tied.
1:14:30
Speaker 2: And then Washington had a one point lead right away
1:14:32
Speaker 2: in the second half. But then, yeah, Vegas started pulling
1:14:35
Speaker 2: away in the second half, but a lot of it
1:14:37
Speaker 2: was a very late pull away, Like Washington was still
1:14:39
Speaker 2: within six points with two minutes left. Does that mean
1:14:42
Speaker 2: that Vegas is gonna take them seriously this time? I'm
1:14:46
Speaker 2: not so sure, because they wound up pulling away and
1:14:48
Speaker 2: winning by ten. The game was put away with more
1:14:51
Speaker 2: than a minute left to go. And there were some
1:14:53
Speaker 2: outliers here. The shooting was a little bit hot for Vegas.
1:14:57
Speaker 2: I know Vegas is probably the better shooting team anyway
1:14:59
Speaker 2: than Washington, but the outlier here. I think you could
1:15:02
Speaker 2: consider the three pointers to be an outlier here. Vegas
1:15:05
Speaker 2: shot almost forty percent, which is a little bit above average,
1:15:08
Speaker 2: I would say, and Washington was below average twenty eight percent.
1:15:12
Speaker 2: Although Washington's more of a defensive team, they don't really
1:15:15
Speaker 2: hit threes that well. But even so, Vegas hit four
1:15:18
Speaker 2: more threes than they did, so there was kind of
1:15:21
Speaker 2: an outlier there, and the percentage shooting wise is a
1:15:23
Speaker 2: bit of an outlier there, so there might be some
1:15:25
Speaker 2: regression to be had for the aces there from three
1:15:28
Speaker 2: point range, especially against a good Washington d and Washington
1:15:32
Speaker 2: might positively regress a little bit, meaning they might shoot
1:15:35
Speaker 2: a little bit better from three this time, because they
1:15:37
Speaker 2: shot below the average there, and the Aces were plus
1:15:40
Speaker 2: twelve from three point range there in points, so that
1:15:43
Speaker 2: was more than the difference in the game right there.
1:15:46
Speaker 2: The other thing of note is that Washington had a
1:15:48
Speaker 2: ton of turnovers, so Washington lost the turnover battle by double.
1:15:53
Speaker 2: That's something you can clean up though, you know what
1:15:54
Speaker 2: I mean. That's like mistakes. A lot of that is
1:15:57
Speaker 2: mental whatever. Maybe some of it had to do with
1:15:59
Speaker 2: the time zone change. I'm not gonna say they're gonna
1:16:01
Speaker 2: win the turnover battle this time. I don't think they will,
1:16:04
Speaker 2: because usually the home team wins the turnover battle. They
1:16:06
Speaker 2: don't need to win the turnover battle to cover as
1:16:08
Speaker 2: an underdog here though, and as long as it's closer,
1:16:11
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, I think there is room
1:16:12
Speaker 2: for that to happen here as well. And one thing
1:16:14
Speaker 2: that I really like to see here is Washington dominated
1:16:17
Speaker 2: the rebound battle. I think that's kind of a red
1:16:19
Speaker 2: flag as far as Vegas is concerned, if you can
1:16:21
Speaker 2: go win there against Asia Wilson and dominate the rebound battle.
1:16:26
Speaker 2: Asia Wilson, by the way, I didn't realize until I
1:16:28
Speaker 2: was watching. I think it was ESPN Jeopardy or whatever,
1:16:30
Speaker 2: and I got the clue right, but I didn't know
1:16:32
Speaker 2: that this was the case. I guess Asia Wilson is
1:16:34
Speaker 2: dating Bam out of bio. I'm like, okay, they live
1:16:40
Speaker 2: on opposite sides of the country, right, but all right,
1:16:42
Speaker 2: whatever long distance relationship. I have no idea, man anyway,
1:16:47
Speaker 2: Washington to dominate the rebound battle like that against a
1:16:50
Speaker 2: team that has Wilson on the interior. Though they won
1:16:53
Speaker 2: the rebound battle forty one to thirty, and I don't
1:16:56
Speaker 2: think we need them to win the rebound battle like
1:16:58
Speaker 2: that to cover here in this game. But I think
1:16:59
Speaker 2: that's kind of a hidden sign that Washington played better
1:17:02
Speaker 2: in this game than what the final score looked. So
1:17:05
Speaker 2: that's what I think happened. I think Washington was better
1:17:07
Speaker 2: in that game in the final score looked. They're only
1:17:09
Speaker 2: five and a half point underdogs in that game, so
1:17:11
Speaker 2: we're actually getting an extra point of value here six
1:17:14
Speaker 2: and a half. This line actually opened seven and a
1:17:16
Speaker 2: half this time. I wish we got that number because
1:17:19
Speaker 2: that would be the key number that's not gonna happen.
1:17:21
Speaker 2: But six six and a half are out there, so
1:17:23
Speaker 2: that's what I would play it at that. I mean,
1:17:25
Speaker 2: like I said, the line was five and a half
1:17:27
Speaker 2: in the prior game. So the line has moved up
1:17:30
Speaker 2: in this game for no real reason other than the
1:17:32
Speaker 2: fact that Vegas won the last game by ten. Washington
1:17:35
Speaker 2: eighty six percent of the tickets does worrying me a little.
1:17:37
Speaker 2: Eighty seven percent of the cash. The public is not
1:17:41
Speaker 2: playing Washington here, okay, So you know you got to
1:17:44
Speaker 2: just figure out what are those percentages really mean. Do
1:17:46
Speaker 2: you really think the public is playing Washington against the
1:17:49
Speaker 2: spread in this game, especially after they've played really poorly recently.
1:17:53
Speaker 2: I don't think they are, So I don't really see that.
1:17:56
Speaker 2: But I think maybe the real money is agreeing with
1:17:58
Speaker 2: me on Washington here, cause I think we've seen a
1:18:00
Speaker 2: little bit of a drop. I think it's gone down
1:18:02
Speaker 2: a little bit from six and a half to six
1:18:04
Speaker 2: here at some of these shops so and circa. You
1:18:07
Speaker 2: know or am I allowed to say the name. I
1:18:09
Speaker 2: don't know. The Vegas shops here like this that are
1:18:11
Speaker 2: more the Vegas shop that starts with the C and
1:18:15
Speaker 2: the Vega sp book here, those tend to be more
1:18:20
Speaker 2: sharp catering. So though you could consider that to be
1:18:25
Speaker 2: a lean in some cases, you know what I mean,
1:18:27
Speaker 2: Although a lot of times they just won't have the
1:18:28
Speaker 2: favorite as heavily priced because they cater to the sharps,
1:18:32
Speaker 2: so they just don't do that like the square books
1:18:34
Speaker 2: can jack the price up on the favorite a lot
1:18:37
Speaker 2: and still get people to bet it. So that's part
1:18:40
Speaker 2: of the reason why. But it also could be like
1:18:41
Speaker 2: an actual lean that oh maybe there's like a little
1:18:43
Speaker 2: bit of an opinion there from the professional betters that
1:18:46
Speaker 2: are in Vegas that use those books that cater to
1:18:49
Speaker 2: the sharps like those two, you know what I mean?
1:18:52
Speaker 2: And I don't. We don't have the WG book on here,
1:18:55
Speaker 2: do we? I don't think we do, because that would
1:18:56
Speaker 2: also be another one to look at for like a
1:18:58
Speaker 2: sharp lean. But let's say Washington plus the points there.
1:19:02
Speaker 2: But yes, it does look like at those books the
1:19:03
Speaker 2: favorite price is a little bit lower. Yeah, Bam, MARGEA yeah,
1:19:09
Speaker 2: that's why I meant, yes, the jackass guy who basically
1:19:14
Speaker 2: has morphed into his father. All Right, NFL preseason Before
1:19:19
Speaker 2: I get out of here, I mean, I do have
1:19:20
Speaker 2: some opinions here. Now. The first preseason game that we saw,
1:19:23
Speaker 2: the Hall of Fame game, was crazy high scoring. And
1:19:26
Speaker 2: generally you get lower scoring games in the first week
1:19:29
Speaker 2: of preseason because the offenses aren't quite ready to go yet,
1:19:33
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, and the defenses or it's
1:19:36
Speaker 2: more it's easier for the defense to just be ready
1:19:38
Speaker 2: to go, right because the offenses haven't really been able
1:19:41
Speaker 2: to gain rhythm yet whatever. So that's why you see
1:19:42
Speaker 2: a lot of lower scoring game week one in preseason games.
1:19:47
Speaker 2: But the totals have gone up recently, like these numbers.
1:19:52
Speaker 2: I know some of it is just the modern state
1:19:53
Speaker 2: of the game, but given that we have, you know,
1:19:56
Speaker 2: just the way that college works now, you have guys
1:19:58
Speaker 2: that are more ready to go coming out of college now,
1:20:01
Speaker 2: that have more experience coming in here, and then these
1:20:03
Speaker 2: teams are more likely to just see what like, use
1:20:06
Speaker 2: these guys differently. Now there are three preseason games, remember,
1:20:09
Speaker 2: instead of four, because that's what the NFL does now.
1:20:12
Speaker 2: So there's an extra week of the NFL actual season
1:20:15
Speaker 2: in a one fewer week of preseason. Now, So like
1:20:20
Speaker 2: the these guys that are young guys that might be
1:20:22
Speaker 2: talented offensive players, they get more in the mix early on,
1:20:25
Speaker 2: and they might be unleashed in some of these earlier games.
1:20:28
Speaker 2: And that's what we saw in that Hall of Fame game.
1:20:30
Speaker 2: Carson Beck and Haynes King both got unleashed in that game.
1:20:34
Speaker 2: So there were a lot of points scored in that one.
1:20:37
Speaker 2: So you gotta be aware of that. So I would
1:20:38
Speaker 2: be kind of wary of trying to play some of
1:20:40
Speaker 2: these unders here. It depends on what the rotations are, right,
1:20:44
Speaker 2: So I think if you have these young, like hot
1:20:46
Speaker 2: commodities here in the in like the quarterback mix, I
1:20:50
Speaker 2: think those games are gonna tend to go over more
1:20:53
Speaker 2: because the coaches are going to be more likely to
1:20:55
Speaker 2: unleash those guys if they're not starters, I mean, just
1:20:58
Speaker 2: to see what they have and those guys. Whereas if
1:20:59
Speaker 2: you have a rotation that has quarterbacks that are like
1:21:04
Speaker 2: you already know who they are, They're probably gonna be
1:21:06
Speaker 2: less pushed, you know what I mean, So that might
1:21:08
Speaker 2: have more of a tendency to go under, if that
1:21:10
Speaker 2: makes sense. But preseason is very chaotic. I don't love it.
1:21:14
Speaker 2: First game up as Detroit and Cincinnati, and all these
1:21:16
Speaker 2: games are being played in the home stadium of the
1:21:19
Speaker 2: home team here, which is I think gonna be the
1:21:22
Speaker 2: case for the rest of preseason. People are gonna look
1:21:26
Speaker 2: at this right away and say, Cincinnati is minus seven
1:21:29
Speaker 2: against Detroit, and that just looks kind of insane, right,
1:21:32
Speaker 2: So I think the public is probably gonna be like, yeah,
1:21:34
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Detroit here, Like, why are they a
1:21:36
Speaker 2: seven point underdog? Well, the reason for that is you
1:21:39
Speaker 2: gotta look at who the backups are, you know what
1:21:41
Speaker 2: I mean. Detroit's got eighty four percent of tickets, eighty
1:21:43
Speaker 2: one percent of the cash on them. I think I
1:21:46
Speaker 2: would probably lean towards laying the points of Cincinnati. I
1:21:48
Speaker 2: don't really want to do that, like lay a touchdown
1:21:51
Speaker 2: with a total of thirty seven and a half. That
1:21:53
Speaker 2: seems pretty dangerous. And as you'll see, I think Cincinnati
1:21:57
Speaker 2: won't really unleash their quarterback rotation in this game. But
1:22:00
Speaker 2: the thing is, I don't think Detroit's quarterback rotation in
1:22:03
Speaker 2: this game is really that good. And you have to
1:22:05
Speaker 2: weigh the experience factor here. They do have experience. They're
1:22:09
Speaker 2: gonna be using a lot of Josh Dobbs here in
1:22:11
Speaker 2: this game. He's their number two quarterback. Obviously, the starting
1:22:14
Speaker 2: quarterback's golf. You know he's not gonna play in this game.
1:22:17
Speaker 2: Dobbs will play. Dobbs has some NFL experience though. You know,
1:22:20
Speaker 2: he's been on multiple NFL teams. He's been a starter
1:22:23
Speaker 2: in the NFL in a number of games, so you
1:22:27
Speaker 2: know he's he's gonna be fine, like he's experienced. And
1:22:30
Speaker 2: then Detroit might bring Altmeyer into the mix. So I
1:22:32
Speaker 2: believe is a rookie that they drafted out of Illinois. Yeah,
1:22:37
Speaker 2: that's right, Illinois. I don't know what they're gonna get
1:22:38
Speaker 2: out of him, but he might get into the mix
1:22:40
Speaker 2: here as well because they want to see what they
1:22:42
Speaker 2: have with him. And I think that's a lesser quarterback
1:22:45
Speaker 2: rotation than what Cincinnati has going, although obviously, you know Cincinnati,
1:22:51
Speaker 2: they're like, there's a reason why their favorite like this,
1:22:53
Speaker 2: and I think it's because they're gonna be using Joe Flacco,
1:22:56
Speaker 2: and then I guess Josh Johnson, and then I don't
1:22:58
Speaker 2: know who Sean Clifford is. But basically Cincinnati has very
1:23:03
Speaker 2: They have one of the most experienced quarterback rooms. Like
1:23:06
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco. You know how much experience that guy has. Yeah,
1:23:09
Speaker 2: he's like, what is he forty two years old now
1:23:11
Speaker 2: maybe not quite that old, forty one whatever he is.
1:23:14
Speaker 2: He played a lot for Cincinnati last year. They picked
1:23:17
Speaker 2: him up from Cleveland in the middle of the season
1:23:19
Speaker 2: last year, and Flacco started until Joe Burrow came back.
1:23:23
Speaker 2: Now Cincinnati, they might actually play Joe Burrow in this
1:23:26
Speaker 2: game too, because Cincinnati has kind of changed their coaching outlook.
1:23:30
Speaker 2: If you remember Zach Taylor or whatever their coach's name is,
1:23:34
Speaker 2: he kept getting shit because he never played Borrow at
1:23:37
Speaker 2: all in preseason, and then Cincinnati always lost Game one
1:23:41
Speaker 2: in the regular season because it's like he wasn't ready
1:23:43
Speaker 2: to go. So then he was like, Okay, well fuck you,
1:23:45
Speaker 2: I'm gonna play Borrow in the preseason. Then I think
1:23:47
Speaker 2: last year I think he might have played Borrow like
1:23:50
Speaker 2: most of preseason. But of course Borrow always gets hurt,
1:23:53
Speaker 2: so maybe they don't want to play in preseason. That's
1:23:56
Speaker 2: that balance, you know what I mean. Borrow was so
1:23:58
Speaker 2: injury prone, do you really want to put him out there.
1:24:01
Speaker 2: My guess is he's not gonna play, but maybe he is,
1:24:05
Speaker 2: and maybe that's why the line is so high in Cincinnati.
1:24:08
Speaker 2: That would kind of make sense that maybe Borrow is
1:24:11
Speaker 2: gonna be in there for like one series or something.
1:24:15
Speaker 2: But that's the thing. If that's all you're gonna get
1:24:17
Speaker 2: out of Borrow, then I think the line might be
1:24:19
Speaker 2: too high. But that might explain why the line moved
1:24:22
Speaker 2: from three and a half to seven. Again, you got
1:24:23
Speaker 2: to try to figure all this stuff out. But if
1:24:25
Speaker 2: that's the case, and if Borrow is starting here, then
1:24:28
Speaker 2: I don't really like Cincinnati that much because I think
1:24:30
Speaker 2: it might mean that they're gonna be a little bit
1:24:32
Speaker 2: overvalued with that price. However, the public is all over
1:24:36
Speaker 2: Detroit here. They want Detroit as the dog. I would
1:24:39
Speaker 2: not play Detroit like even if you look at like
1:24:41
Speaker 2: the backups here, I would much rather have Flaco and
1:24:44
Speaker 2: Johnson than Dobbs, you know what I mean in Altmeyer
1:24:48
Speaker 2: And I don't know if Clifford's getting in here at all,
1:24:50
Speaker 2: but Flaco and Johnson are both very experienced quarterbacks. Johnson
1:24:54
Speaker 2: has been i think, on the most teams out of
1:24:56
Speaker 2: any quarterback in NFL history. He's been on like more
1:25:00
Speaker 2: and half the teams in the league at this point.
1:25:02
Speaker 2: Probably they're both old, but they're both extremely experienced, So
1:25:05
Speaker 2: I think Cincinnati might still be the way to look
1:25:09
Speaker 2: in that game. But I don't love the game really,
1:25:12
Speaker 2: you know whatever, And I don't really have much on
1:25:15
Speaker 2: these totals either. Green Bay and Pittsburgh is on NFL
1:25:19
Speaker 2: Network the Aaron Rodgers Battle, except Aaron Rodgers isn't playing
1:25:23
Speaker 2: and neither is Jordan Love, So Pittsburgh is gonna be
1:25:26
Speaker 2: going with their other quarterbacks yere. They got Mason Rudolph
1:25:30
Speaker 2: Listen as their number two starter right now. He's an
1:25:33
Speaker 2: experienced quarterback. He's just not that good, but he's got experience.
1:25:37
Speaker 2: He's played a lot, so he'll probably be in there.
1:25:40
Speaker 2: Probably not a bad thing in a preseason game. They
1:25:42
Speaker 2: got Will Howard, who I think they drafted last year.
1:25:45
Speaker 2: He's got a little bit of experience because he played
1:25:47
Speaker 2: a little bit last year, but not much. I think
1:25:50
Speaker 2: Howard might actually not be that bad of a quarterback,
1:25:52
Speaker 2: but I have no idea. And then they drafted Drew
1:25:54
Speaker 2: Aller this year and supposedly he's looked good in practice.
1:25:58
Speaker 2: I have no idea. I think I thought that he
1:26:00
Speaker 2: sucked when he was at Penn State, but maybe it
1:26:03
Speaker 2: was because James Franklin made all of his players look
1:26:05
Speaker 2: way worse. I have no idea. He doesn't impress me
1:26:09
Speaker 2: allor so I don't know what's going on there. But
1:26:11
Speaker 2: he does get to play for Pittsburgh now and not
1:26:14
Speaker 2: go that far away from Penn State where he played college,
1:26:16
Speaker 2: so I have no idea. Maybe the home if he
1:26:18
Speaker 2: is he from Pennsylvania too. I don't know if he is,
1:26:22
Speaker 2: but the home crowd might be there for him for
1:26:25
Speaker 2: some of those reasons there. I don't know if he'll
1:26:27
Speaker 2: get into the game, but we'll see. But the Pittsburgh
1:26:29
Speaker 2: quarterback rotation might be better than Green Bays. Jordan Love
1:26:34
Speaker 2: won't play in this game, I would imagine, because he's
1:26:37
Speaker 2: kind of injury prone too, But they're going with Tyrod
1:26:39
Speaker 2: Taylor actually, it looks like so he's very experienced as well,
1:26:42
Speaker 2: and he could kind of throw a wrench into what
1:26:45
Speaker 2: the deepfense wants to do because he's still a dual
1:26:47
Speaker 2: threat quarterback even though he's old. So Taylor might be
1:26:50
Speaker 2: all right out there. And then they got McCord, who's
1:26:53
Speaker 2: only played a little bit. I think McCord was on
1:26:55
Speaker 2: Philly for a little while. If I'm not mistaken, am
1:26:57
Speaker 2: I right about that? I don't know what he's gonna do,
1:27:00
Speaker 2: but he hasn't really done much he's been he's been
1:27:03
Speaker 2: a backup in the league since he's been in the league.
1:27:05
Speaker 2: And then they drafted drones. I guess the drone bomb
1:27:10
Speaker 2: out of Virginia Tech. I don't know what he's gonna do.
1:27:12
Speaker 2: He's got a decent arm, but I have no idea
1:27:14
Speaker 2: what he's gonna be able to do against NFL defenses. Yeah,
1:27:18
Speaker 2: I mean, I think there's more. I like Pittsburgh's rotation
1:27:23
Speaker 2: a little bit more as far as the quarterback there
1:27:25
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks. The money is coming in on Pittsburgh and
1:27:28
Speaker 2: you're getting him as a two and a half point underdog.
1:27:30
Speaker 2: I think I would probably lean that way. I got
1:27:32
Speaker 2: pretty much nothing on these totals, by the way, So
1:27:35
Speaker 2: you know, like Detroit and Cincinnati seems like it might
1:27:38
Speaker 2: be a little bit of a lower scoring game, so
1:27:39
Speaker 2: maybe an under there, even though the money looks like
1:27:41
Speaker 2: it's kind of on the over, but the public is
1:27:43
Speaker 2: on the over. But because Detroit and Cincinnati look like
1:27:46
Speaker 2: they mostly are going with quarterbacks that already have experience.
1:27:50
Speaker 2: That's kind of what I think about that Green Bay
1:27:53
Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh can kind of maybe say the same thing,
1:27:55
Speaker 2: and it looks like the money is actually coming in
1:27:58
Speaker 2: on the under in that one, and it's on Pittsburgh.
1:28:01
Speaker 2: Sixty five percent tickets, eighty five percent of the cash
1:28:03
Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh. Yeah, slightly for me to Pittsburgh. I think
1:28:07
Speaker 2: if you're gonna, if you want money on any of
1:28:09
Speaker 2: these games tonight, I would actually play Indianapolis against New England.
1:28:13
Speaker 2: I think there's a huge gap between the starting quarterback
1:28:16
Speaker 2: or between the quarterback rotations here. I keep saying quarterback,
1:28:19
Speaker 2: but New England's quarterback rotation is absolutely terrible. It's ridiculous.
1:28:24
Speaker 2: Like it's like it's like they just don't give a shit.
1:28:27
Speaker 2: They're like, yeah, whatever, Drake May's fine. I'm like, okay, well, yeah,
1:28:31
Speaker 2: if Drake May gets hurt, New England is gonna have
1:28:34
Speaker 2: a huge drop off because their backup quarterbacks are horrendous.
1:28:38
Speaker 2: Like I think they have the worst backup quarterback situation
1:28:41
Speaker 2: in the NFL. Like it's really bad. Uh, this game
1:28:45
Speaker 2: is in fox run. Drake May is not gonna play
1:28:47
Speaker 2: in this game, I would have to imagine Indianapolis Daniel
1:28:50
Speaker 2: Jones is coming back. The question with them is is
1:28:54
Speaker 2: does Indianapolis want Daniel Jones to actually play in this game?
1:28:58
Speaker 2: You know what I mean coming back from injury? Do
1:28:59
Speaker 2: they want to get him some work right, because he
1:29:02
Speaker 2: needs to come back from that like broken leg or
1:29:04
Speaker 2: whatever it was last year. I don't know he's going
1:29:07
Speaker 2: to be their starter, especially because he was good last
1:29:09
Speaker 2: year and it looks they're saying he's ready to go,
1:29:11
Speaker 2: but they're gonna have to at least get him some
1:29:14
Speaker 2: work in preseason. I would have to imagine it probably
1:29:16
Speaker 2: won't be in this game, but even if it is,
1:29:19
Speaker 2: I think that just helps Indianapolis's case. Look at New
1:29:21
Speaker 2: England without Drake May, They're gonna be going with Tommy
1:29:25
Speaker 2: Tommy Cutlets, Tommy DeVito formerly of the Giants, and I
1:29:30
Speaker 2: like DeVito. I just don't think he's a good quarterback.
1:29:32
Speaker 2: He's got a little bit of experience, I guess, but
1:29:35
Speaker 2: I'm like laughing at this is so much of a joke.
1:29:38
Speaker 2: And then their third quarterback. They're only carrying three quarterbacks
1:29:41
Speaker 2: and the other one is Baron Morton, who I believe
1:29:44
Speaker 2: was at Texas Tech. Right, he was good at Texas Tech.
1:29:47
Speaker 2: But he's raw. I think he's a rookie here. They'll
1:29:50
Speaker 2: probably get him in the mix, but I wouldn't trust that.
1:29:53
Speaker 2: I would not trust that man. And Tommy DeVito's gotta
1:29:56
Speaker 2: he's Tommy Cutlet's because he talks about his mama's and palm.
1:30:01
Speaker 2: But she's probably back in New York, man, So I
1:30:03
Speaker 2: don't know Tommy DeVito. He's far away from his mom
1:30:06
Speaker 2: right now, so I don't know. Indianapolis look at their
1:30:09
Speaker 2: quarterback room though, even with Daniel Jones not playing, they
1:30:13
Speaker 2: still got Anthony Richardson here, and I know he never
1:30:15
Speaker 2: stays healthy. But oh first, this won't load. Richardson's got
1:30:20
Speaker 2: some experience now, and he's got a lot of allan
1:30:24
Speaker 2: and he's a dual threat so he can kind of
1:30:25
Speaker 2: throw off the defense quite a bit, so he'll be
1:30:28
Speaker 2: in the mix there. And then they also have Riley
1:30:30
Speaker 2: Leonard who played a little bit last year after they
1:30:32
Speaker 2: drafted him. He actually looked kind of good to me,
1:30:34
Speaker 2: like if you remember what they did, he actually started
1:30:37
Speaker 2: at the end of last year in actual regular season games.
1:30:40
Speaker 2: Because you remember Indianapolis, Daniel Jones got hurt. Then they
1:30:43
Speaker 2: used Philip Rivers. They had the gram box Smarraman and
1:30:46
Speaker 2: he played like three or four games. I loved it,
1:30:49
Speaker 2: and he was actually not bad. Then he decided to
1:30:52
Speaker 2: pack it in and Indianapolis decided to try out Riley Leonard.
1:30:56
Speaker 2: At the end of the season, he actually looked decent.
1:30:58
Speaker 2: So Leonard might not actually be that bad, even though
1:31:01
Speaker 2: I never was a fan of him in college. But
1:31:02
Speaker 2: I don't think he was that good. Maybe I'm wrong,
1:31:05
Speaker 2: maybe he's not that bad. He looked all right for
1:31:07
Speaker 2: the Colts at the end of the season in actual
1:31:09
Speaker 2: NFL games. And they also have Easton Stick, one of
1:31:13
Speaker 2: the best names who played for the Chargers a bit
1:31:16
Speaker 2: in NFL games, So you have a way more experience
1:31:19
Speaker 2: in my even though these guys are still kind of young.
1:31:22
Speaker 2: I think Indianapolis's quarterback room here, they just have way
1:31:25
Speaker 2: more experience and they're better than New England. So I
1:31:28
Speaker 2: like Indianapolis in this game. And the public is all
1:31:32
Speaker 2: over New England. They're the most public side here, nine tickets,
1:31:37
Speaker 2: ninety two percent of the cash. Yeah, Indianapolis is favored
1:31:40
Speaker 2: at minus three, so you know, Drake May is not
1:31:42
Speaker 2: playing here, like the public's gonna look at this and
1:31:45
Speaker 2: be like, oh my god, I'm getting New England as
1:31:47
Speaker 2: an underdog. They were in the Super Bowl last year,
1:31:49
Speaker 2: and they forget that. Indianapolis was awesome at the beginning
1:31:52
Speaker 2: of the season last year, by the way, although that
1:31:54
Speaker 2: was with Daniel Jones, of course, and I don't think
1:31:56
Speaker 2: he's quite that good. I think they overperformed, but Indianapolis
1:32:00
Speaker 2: was one of the best teams in the NFL before
1:32:02
Speaker 2: they completely fell off of the second half and then
1:32:04
Speaker 2: wound up not making the playoffs and playoffs and that's
1:32:08
Speaker 2: what people remember. Fine, I'll do it. Let me find it.
1:32:10
Speaker 2: I haven't done it in a while.
1:32:13
Speaker 1: Playoffs.
1:32:14
Speaker 2: Don't talk about playoffs. You kidding me? Playoffs? I just
1:32:18
Speaker 2: hope we can win a game. Another game. There you go,
1:32:23
Speaker 2: only because it's the Colts involved in that. With Jim Moore,
1:32:26
Speaker 2: who I believe is still alive and somewhere. I forget
1:32:30
Speaker 2: where though, well obviously if he's alive, he's somewhere, But
1:32:34
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, I think he's still with
1:32:36
Speaker 2: some NFL team as like a coach or some I
1:32:39
Speaker 2: forget anyway, maybe I'm wrong, but yeah, New England's heavily
1:32:44
Speaker 2: public here. There's a reason why Indianapolis is favored here.
1:32:47
Speaker 2: The public is gonna all be on New England, the
1:32:49
Speaker 2: team that made the Super Bowl last year, and they're
1:32:51
Speaker 2: all hyped. Indianapolis completely flamed out, obviously, but a lot
1:32:56
Speaker 2: of it was because Jones was hurt. Yes, Jones is
1:32:58
Speaker 2: not playing in this game, but neither is. May looks
1:33:01
Speaker 2: way too easy to take New England and I just
1:33:03
Speaker 2: showed you that. The quarterback rooms make me laugh, dud,
1:33:05
Speaker 2: because I think Indianapolis is so much better like as
1:33:08
Speaker 2: far as their quarterback depth, which is how you want
1:33:11
Speaker 2: to handicap preseason. And they might have more motivation as well.
1:33:14
Speaker 2: You know, New England might be flat because the last
1:33:17
Speaker 2: time they played they lost the Super Bowl. Sod you
1:33:19
Speaker 2: really they're gonna come out that excited for preseason Game
1:33:22
Speaker 2: one against the Indianapolis Colts. Probably not. So I like
1:33:26
Speaker 2: Indianapolis and that one. I think that's the best play
1:33:29
Speaker 2: out of any of these if you're really gonna get
1:33:31
Speaker 2: involved in preseason. Arizona in Vegas on ESPN Unlimited. Very interesting.
1:33:36
Speaker 2: Arizona played in the Hall of Fame game, so they're
1:33:39
Speaker 2: playing an extra preseason game. I think so Arizona's already
1:33:44
Speaker 2: got experience. They already got a game under their belt,
1:33:46
Speaker 2: and although they lost, they played pretty well. Carson Beck
1:33:50
Speaker 2: looked pretty good in the game, and he's probably gonna
1:33:52
Speaker 2: get more reps here in this one, so I think
1:33:54
Speaker 2: that helps Arizona, Like Vegas is gonna come into this
1:33:56
Speaker 2: game completely cold, right, so, and Arizona's coming in. Carson
1:34:01
Speaker 2: Beck's already got a game under his belt in preseason.
1:34:03
Speaker 2: He's probably playing again here. Although they're probably gonna use
1:34:06
Speaker 2: Minshew as well, he'll be in the mix. They have
1:34:08
Speaker 2: Gardner Minshew, but that's fine as well because he's a
1:34:11
Speaker 2: super experienced quarterback. He's been in the NFL for a
1:34:14
Speaker 2: long time. You know. He has a mustache and wears
1:34:17
Speaker 2: short denim cutoffs, short shorts. So I like Gardner Minshew.
1:34:22
Speaker 2: I think I think he's good. I like the homo
1:34:25
Speaker 2: eroticism with him as well. One of my favorite quarterbacks
1:34:28
Speaker 2: actually as far as his aura. So he's probably getting
1:34:31
Speaker 2: in the mix. And then Arizona has some other guy
1:34:33
Speaker 2: who I forget who the hell he is, but I
1:34:36
Speaker 2: think their quarterback depth is actually pretty strong. Oh yeah,
1:34:40
Speaker 2: Keidan's Slovas. I have no idea who the hell that is,
1:34:43
Speaker 2: but whatever, Arizona. Yeah, Like, I think it's a good
1:34:49
Speaker 2: situation for them because they already played a game, you
1:34:51
Speaker 2: know what I mean, even though they're gonna have to
1:34:52
Speaker 2: now adjust the specific times on whatever, but they're they're
1:34:55
Speaker 2: probably already back in Arizona after the Hall of Fame game,
1:34:58
Speaker 2: so I don't think that's gonna affect them that much.
1:35:00
Speaker 2: Just going to Vegas from Arizona, like, that's fine, Who
1:35:03
Speaker 2: gives a shit? Vegas has not played yet, of course
1:35:07
Speaker 2: in the preseason. Vegas is probably gonna be using Mendoza
1:35:11
Speaker 2: here because he's not their starter to start the season.
1:35:14
Speaker 2: It looks like they have I don't know if they've
1:35:15
Speaker 2: announced it, but it looks like Kirk Cousins is their
1:35:18
Speaker 2: starter because they picked him up. So I think Cousins
1:35:21
Speaker 2: is not gonna play in this game, especially because he's
1:35:23
Speaker 2: old and really injury pronel though I like Cousins, man,
1:35:26
Speaker 2: I'm a huge fan of him. I know he got
1:35:28
Speaker 2: in a huge fight with Max Crosby, who seems like
1:35:32
Speaker 2: Crosby is never able to get away from Las Vegas,
1:35:35
Speaker 2: like he was on the Ravens for what like a
1:35:38
Speaker 2: day and then somehow I want to back on Vegas.
1:35:40
Speaker 2: I don't know what that was. I guess Cousins in
1:35:42
Speaker 2: Crosby don't like each other. But I have seen Cousins
1:35:45
Speaker 2: on you know, Netflix Quarterback showing whatever Cousins was in
1:35:49
Speaker 2: the right. I don't care what the argument was. I
1:35:51
Speaker 2: can tell you already Cousins was definitely in the right.
1:35:53
Speaker 2: I'm gonna defend Cousins. I'm gonna defend the family man, Christian,
1:35:58
Speaker 2: father and husband. So that's what I'm gonna do. But
1:36:02
Speaker 2: I think he's the starter for Vegas. I think Vegas
1:36:04
Speaker 2: is going to use Fernanda Mendoza in this game, and
1:36:07
Speaker 2: we'll get our first look at him sexy as the
1:36:10
Speaker 2: number one overall pick here. He's probably gonna be the
1:36:14
Speaker 2: starter before the end of the season because I'd imagine
1:36:16
Speaker 2: things are not gonna go well for Vegas this year.
1:36:19
Speaker 2: So probably Mendoza will be the starter before the end
1:36:23
Speaker 2: of the season, and probably sooner than later. But I
1:36:26
Speaker 2: don't think he is yet. So I think he's gonna
1:36:28
Speaker 2: play in this game, and they have Aidan O'Connell, who
1:36:30
Speaker 2: definitely has a lot of experience at this one. I
1:36:32
Speaker 2: have no idea who Jacob Clark is, but they have
1:36:35
Speaker 2: a deep quarterback room at least there. But I think
1:36:41
Speaker 2: I like Arizona's a little bit better. Plus Mendoza's coming
1:36:44
Speaker 2: into this game cold Vegas coming to this game cold.
1:36:47
Speaker 2: One thing that's good about that is Arizona won't know
1:36:49
Speaker 2: what Vegas is gonna do offensively, and Vegas will have
1:36:53
Speaker 2: film on Arizona because they'll see what Arizona did in
1:36:56
Speaker 2: the Hall of Fame game, so that will make Arizona's
1:36:58
Speaker 2: offense a little bit less of a mister. But I
1:37:00
Speaker 2: think Arizona having a game under their belt helps them
1:37:03
Speaker 2: acclimate as well, so I think that might matter more
1:37:06
Speaker 2: than the game film aspect of it. So I like
1:37:08
Speaker 2: Arizona in this one, plus the two and a half
1:37:11
Speaker 2: or whatever. But the money's coming in against it, and
1:37:13
Speaker 2: I was wrong about them in the first game. Maybe
1:37:16
Speaker 2: Arizona still blows. I don't know. Sixty Everybody seems to
1:37:19
Speaker 2: think Arizona is terrible, though, and I think they might
1:37:21
Speaker 2: be better than people think. And Arizona, of course, their
1:37:24
Speaker 2: started quarterback who won't play in this game is Jacoby Brissett,
1:37:27
Speaker 2: who's been around for forever, and the thing about him
1:37:30
Speaker 2: is he just doesn't turn the ball over much, so
1:37:32
Speaker 2: he's just a steady game managing quarterback. But I don't
1:37:35
Speaker 2: think he's gonna be playing in this game. Sixty four
1:37:37
Speaker 2: percent of the tickets are on Arizona, sixty seven percent
1:37:40
Speaker 2: of the cash on Vegas. Kind of strange. Do you
1:37:42
Speaker 2: really think the public is playing on Arizona here? I
1:37:45
Speaker 2: don't see why they would be other than the fact
1:37:47
Speaker 2: that maybe they're impressed that Arizona scored thirty in the
1:37:49
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame game. But you think that the hype
1:37:51
Speaker 2: would all be on Fernando Mendoza and he's probably playing
1:37:54
Speaker 2: in this game. So I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong,
1:37:56
Speaker 2: and maybe I don't know. Man. I actually am not
1:37:58
Speaker 2: sure if cousins are Mendoza has been announced the starter here.
1:38:02
Speaker 2: Maybe they just haven't done it yet. Maybe they'll both
1:38:05
Speaker 2: get into the mix in the preseason. I don't know.
1:38:08
Speaker 2: Chargers in Houston, do I really want to go over
1:38:10
Speaker 2: every NFL preseason game? I don't know. I don't think
1:38:13
Speaker 2: I did. Last year. Houston they got some decent depth here.
1:38:18
Speaker 2: They got obviously CJ. Stroud as their starter. He won't
1:38:21
Speaker 2: play in this game. They got Davis Mills. Mills has
1:38:24
Speaker 2: a lot of experience. Mills came into some games last
1:38:26
Speaker 2: year when Stroud got hurt some Mills is familiar with
1:38:30
Speaker 2: the system. He's staying here in the system. He's used
1:38:33
Speaker 2: to backing up Stroud, so I think that'll help Houston here.
1:38:36
Speaker 2: Mills knows what he's doing. He's not really that bad.
1:38:38
Speaker 2: And they also have Graham Mertz, who is He played
1:38:43
Speaker 2: for Florida, I think for a while and then in Wisconsin.
1:38:45
Speaker 2: I forget which order those things went in. I don't
1:38:48
Speaker 2: know how great he is, but I think he's a
1:38:50
Speaker 2: pretty raw quarterback there. So really, if you're gonna look
1:38:54
Speaker 2: at Houston here, you're really banking a lot on Davis
1:38:57
Speaker 2: Mills doing a lot there. And yeah, he'll probably get
1:38:59
Speaker 2: a lot of playing time the Chargers, of course, justin
1:39:03
Speaker 2: Herbert very injury prone. I think he won't be playing here.
1:39:06
Speaker 2: They also have experience, so they have Trey Lance as
1:39:09
Speaker 2: their number two quarterback, and he's been in this system
1:39:12
Speaker 2: for a couple of years now at least, so their
1:39:14
Speaker 2: quarterback rotation looks not too bad either. And they do
1:39:17
Speaker 2: have Djukuallee as well. Ukulelee no, I think he sucks.
1:39:23
Speaker 2: I mean, he's been in the NFL for a little
1:39:25
Speaker 2: while now, but he's sucked in college. I don't think
1:39:27
Speaker 2: he's good at all, so I don't love that does
1:39:30
Speaker 2: nothing for me. The fact that he's there. I think
1:39:33
Speaker 2: it's a pretty even matchup. Actually, looking at these two
1:39:35
Speaker 2: quarterback rooms here, I think you have two teams that
1:39:38
Speaker 2: are actually gonna be decent defensively this year as well.
1:39:43
Speaker 2: Money's coming into the Chargers Houston sixty percent of tickets
1:39:45
Speaker 2: on them, sixty seven percent of the cash on the Chargers.
1:39:48
Speaker 2: Houston's at about one one and a half here. I
1:39:51
Speaker 2: believe these are both playoff teams again last year. If
1:39:53
Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken right, I can't remember. So I don't
1:39:56
Speaker 2: know why the public could be really favoring Houston because
1:39:58
Speaker 2: usually they don't like the Deep, but the public never
1:40:02
Speaker 2: likes the Chargers like they don't like harball Ball, you
1:40:05
Speaker 2: know what I mean. But I do because I think
1:40:07
Speaker 2: they they tend to win games and they fly under
1:40:11
Speaker 2: the radar because nobody likes it. Because Harrorball plays this
1:40:13
Speaker 2: like possession offense, or he wants to Jim Harbaugh, that is,
1:40:18
Speaker 2: he wants to maintain possession of the ball for as
1:40:20
Speaker 2: long as possible to get his defense rested, and it
1:40:24
Speaker 2: slows down the game, and it means you're gonna be
1:40:26
Speaker 2: involved in a lot of close games, and it means
1:40:27
Speaker 2: your offense won't look as prolific, and that's what people
1:40:30
Speaker 2: don't like about it. So we'll see. But yeah, that game.
1:40:34
Speaker 2: I don't have a great read on that game. The
1:40:36
Speaker 2: money is saying the Chargers, Yeah, I don't know. I
1:40:39
Speaker 2: don't even really have a leen in that one. And
1:40:41
Speaker 2: the Tennessee and San Francisco, this is crazy. Tennessee is
1:40:45
Speaker 2: a six point road favorite here, Like, what is going
1:40:48
Speaker 2: on with that? Nobody the public, nobody's gonna play Tennessee here,
1:40:53
Speaker 2: you know what I mean? Like, oh my god, San
1:40:55
Speaker 2: Francisco's at home and they're five and a half point
1:40:57
Speaker 2: underdog against Tennessee, who's perceived to be one of the
1:41:00
Speaker 2: worst teams in the league. Which you know, I'm not
1:41:03
Speaker 2: saying Tennessee is good. I don't think they are. They
1:41:05
Speaker 2: should improve a bit. I am still not totally sold
1:41:08
Speaker 2: on cam Ward Athough I don't think he's playing in
1:41:10
Speaker 2: this game. Maybe he is, though, because it's an NFL
1:41:13
Speaker 2: Network game. You know, Tennessee being at minus six. Maybe
1:41:17
Speaker 2: Ward is playing in this game, kind of like with
1:41:19
Speaker 2: the Bengals line, like and preseason. Usually don't see favorites
1:41:23
Speaker 2: that are that heavy unless there's something going on there.
1:41:26
Speaker 2: But Tennessee has a very deep quarterback rotation. They have
1:41:29
Speaker 2: Mitchell Trubisky in here, and he's got a lot of
1:41:31
Speaker 2: experience of course, playing in the NFL and whatever, and
1:41:34
Speaker 2: they have Will Levis behind him. Will Levis has been
1:41:36
Speaker 2: in this system for a while as well. Even though
1:41:39
Speaker 2: he's mister pick six, he least has experience. And then
1:41:42
Speaker 2: they have Hendon Hooker as well, great name. I forget
1:41:45
Speaker 2: who he is. I don't know. I don't know how
1:41:47
Speaker 2: much he's gonna get into this game. But Tennessee's got
1:41:49
Speaker 2: a lot of experience in their quarterback room and cam
1:41:52
Speaker 2: Ward might be out there. But that's the problem, right
1:41:54
Speaker 2: like I said with Borrow, If the line is like this,
1:41:57
Speaker 2: because Ward is going to play, they still want to
1:42:00
Speaker 2: get him hurt, you know what I mean. So Ward
1:42:01
Speaker 2: might just be out there for like the first series,
1:42:04
Speaker 2: and then he'll sit down and they'll bring in the backups,
1:42:06
Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Which I still like Tennessee
1:42:08
Speaker 2: in this game. I just don't want to lay six
1:42:10
Speaker 2: points on the road, you know what I mean, Like
1:42:12
Speaker 2: there's a reason why they're favored like that. I would
1:42:14
Speaker 2: lean to Tennessee because I think the public is gonna
1:42:16
Speaker 2: be like, what the fuck is going on here? And
1:42:18
Speaker 2: I like Tennessee's quarterback depth in this game here over
1:42:22
Speaker 2: San Francisco's and San Francisco Firs. You know, they have
1:42:25
Speaker 2: all these injury problems because of the electrical substation. Dude,
1:42:29
Speaker 2: I seriously think there is something to that. San Francisco
1:42:32
Speaker 2: is the most injured team every single year and they're
1:42:34
Speaker 2: right next to that substation. Very very strange. Now the
1:42:39
Speaker 2: forty nine ers Brock Purdy of course as their starter.
1:42:41
Speaker 2: He's not gonna play. They do have Mac Jones and
1:42:43
Speaker 2: he filled in nicely for Purdy when Purdy was hurt
1:42:46
Speaker 2: last year. Jones actually wasn't that bad, even though I
1:42:49
Speaker 2: have never really thought he's that good, but he's an
1:42:51
Speaker 2: experienced quarterback at the very least. Then they have Curtis Roar,
1:42:55
Speaker 2: who I believe was in Kurt Signetti's Indiana office before
1:42:59
Speaker 2: they got Mendo. I believe it was Rourke the prior season.
1:43:02
Speaker 2: So Rourke has some experience in some pretty high profile
1:43:06
Speaker 2: college offenses. At the very least, he was in college
1:43:08
Speaker 2: for a long time. This is a new age man.
1:43:10
Speaker 2: You got a lot of rookies that are like really old,
1:43:13
Speaker 2: like Rourke is probably like twenty four to twenty five
1:43:16
Speaker 2: because he played well, he played with Was it with
1:43:20
Speaker 2: Signetti at Ohio? Was it a different coach there? Because
1:43:23
Speaker 2: I think Signetti was at JMU, right, I don't, I forget,
1:43:26
Speaker 2: but Rorke spent most of his college career with Ohio
1:43:30
Speaker 2: and then he went to Indiana and he played pretty well.
1:43:33
Speaker 2: And then they also have Adrian Martinez, who's I believe,
1:43:36
Speaker 2: kind of a dual threat quarterback out of Nebraska who's
1:43:40
Speaker 2: been in the NFL for a while. But yeah, I
1:43:42
Speaker 2: think Tennessee's quarterback room is better than San Francisco, So
1:43:45
Speaker 2: I think they have more experience there as far as
1:43:48
Speaker 2: the backup quarterbacks and who's gonna be in this game.
1:43:50
Speaker 2: So I would lean Tennessee public is all over San Francisco,
1:43:53
Speaker 2: like I said, but it went from like a basically
1:43:56
Speaker 2: a Pickham price all the way up to Tennessee minus six,
1:43:59
Speaker 2: So I think that that means they're actually gonna play
1:44:01
Speaker 2: cam Ward like even though I don't know because I
1:44:03
Speaker 2: haven't read I have not read any of the news
1:44:06
Speaker 2: or media on this, But the line can tell you things,
1:44:09
Speaker 2: you know what I mean. I think the line is
1:44:10
Speaker 2: that high on both Cincinnati and Tennessee. I think that's
1:44:14
Speaker 2: telling you the starters are actually gonna start, the starting quarterbacks,
1:44:18
Speaker 2: but again, they're only gonna play for probably one drive,
1:44:21
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, because you still don't want
1:44:22
Speaker 2: to get them hurt. So that's what I think. So
1:44:24
Speaker 2: I think that actually makes them overvalued as far as
1:44:28
Speaker 2: the number, even even though I like both those sides,
1:44:30
Speaker 2: and I think the public are being stupid and thinking
1:44:33
Speaker 2: they're getting value on the other side. But I don't
1:44:35
Speaker 2: really think there's so much value in laying those points.
1:44:37
Speaker 2: So that's what I got to say about all of that.
1:44:39
Speaker 2: If I was gonna play any of those games, I
1:44:41
Speaker 2: would lay like the two and a half with Indiana.
1:44:44
Speaker 2: With Indianapolis, I almost in Indiana. I'm two in is
1:44:49
Speaker 2: Caitlin Clark on the Colts, and I'm two in a
1:44:51
Speaker 2: WNBA mode. But that's gonna do it. My only plays
1:44:54
Speaker 2: of the day are Pittsburgh Pirates minus and a half
1:44:56
Speaker 2: run in the first five We're gonna back Ashcraft again,
1:44:59
Speaker 2: just yeah, and fade Phillips again. And sometimes it hasn't
1:45:02
Speaker 2: worked out, but let's get us there.
1:45:04
Speaker 3: Man.
1:45:04
Speaker 2: They're also trying to avoid the sweep, so the money
1:45:07
Speaker 2: doesn't agree with it. But I you know, I thought
1:45:09
Speaker 2: I was going to have better opinions on Major League
1:45:12
Speaker 2: Baseball today and something just everything that I thought I
1:45:16
Speaker 2: would think about the baseball board today and wound up
1:45:19
Speaker 2: not being what I wound up thinking. Digging into the
1:45:21
Speaker 2: matchup numbers basically except for the Pittsburgh one, even though
1:45:24
Speaker 2: that one actually kind of looks like more of an
1:45:26
Speaker 2: under than anything else, so that does warrying me a
1:45:28
Speaker 2: little bit too, but whatever, And then we're on Washington
1:45:31
Speaker 2: plus six and a half in the WNBA will play
1:45:34
Speaker 2: that one. We'll take the defense in what I think
1:45:36
Speaker 2: is a decent spot the Zigzag plus a big look
1:45:39
Speaker 2: ahead for a Vegas there, and what we think will
1:45:43
Speaker 2: be a defensive matchup, will take the underdog there that
1:45:45
Speaker 2: can play some defense. That's gonna do it. Learn a
1:45:48
Speaker 2: toad on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram, like, subscribe
1:45:51
Speaker 2: to this channel here. Very long for Thursday is usually
1:45:54
Speaker 2: like my easier day, you know, but fucking NFL has
1:45:57
Speaker 2: to be back. So last year, I don't think I
1:46:00
Speaker 2: went into that much depth with the preseason so cause
1:46:02
Speaker 2: I don't do it, like I don't give up plays
1:46:04
Speaker 2: in the preseason. But it's NFL, so it's something to
1:46:06
Speaker 2: talk about. Like, subscribe to the channel here and you'll
1:46:09
Speaker 2: get notified when I go live. I will do like
1:46:11
Speaker 2: a college preview at some point college football, I mean,
1:46:15
Speaker 2: of course, then I might do an updated NFL preview
1:46:17
Speaker 2: now that we know a little bit more information and
1:46:19
Speaker 2: whatever soon. Hard Knocks I did watch on the first
1:46:23
Speaker 2: episode of it that started this week with the Seattle Seahawks.
1:46:26
Speaker 2: It was reasonably entertaining. It seems like it's not gonna
1:46:30
Speaker 2: be the most boring of the Hard Knock season, so
1:46:33
Speaker 2: it's not bad. They got some characters there. Derek Hall
1:46:37
Speaker 2: I think is his name, the linebacker. He's already causing
1:46:40
Speaker 2: some problems. Some teammates don't like him, and he's showing
1:46:42
Speaker 2: up driving a huge monster truck and wearing short shorts
1:46:47
Speaker 2: during practice so you can basically see his ass. So hey,
1:46:51
Speaker 2: you want to see dude's asses, there you go, man,
1:46:55
Speaker 2: check out Hard Knocks this season. This season. But oh,
1:47:00
Speaker 2: I'm spoiling it though, Oh my god, what else. Yeah,
1:47:05
Speaker 2: we're on audio as well, Apple Spotify Speaker Go check
1:47:08
Speaker 2: that out, padroon dot com, Slash learn It tone if
1:47:10
Speaker 2: you want to support me that way, and uh Loser
1:47:15
Speaker 2: cast every Tuesday night, you can check that out in
1:47:16
Speaker 2: the New York Giants jee Spot podcast. Gotta talk to
1:47:20
Speaker 2: Ben Man. I don't think we're gonna be doing anything
1:47:21
Speaker 2: with preseason. We gotta see, though, I don't know their
1:47:24
Speaker 2: first preseason game I'm sure is within the next couple
1:47:26
Speaker 2: of days. I think every team is gonna play between
1:47:29
Speaker 2: now and like Sunday. I think all the preseason games
1:47:31
Speaker 2: are happening for week one, So that's gonna do it
1:47:34
Speaker 2: for now, though. Peace.
1:47:40
Speaker 1: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone, that's somebody,
1:47:46
Speaker 1: and so let somebody know you.
1:47:49
Speaker 4: Do not have to lose this round.
1:47:57
Speaker 5: Hold on nothing nice not now, hold on, hold on.
1:48:10
Speaker 3: Let me pull You are that bad luck by time,
1:48:18
Speaker 3: but it don't get the crown.
1:48:23
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me, now, hold on,
1:48:33
Speaker 1: hold on, You're still here.
1:48:38
Speaker 5: No, no,