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The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - Last Minute NFL Draft Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's
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  Speaker 1: one eight seventh st o P in Louisiana called the
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  Speaker 1: Tennessee Redline on eight nine, or visit one Gambler dot
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  Speaker 1: Net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites the podcast
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chadenlman, Chief Content
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network, coming to you from beautiful
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas, Nevada. Action Network as a big, big presence
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: at the Draft this year because the Draft, the NFL
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Draft has become a really fun betting event. I'm not
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: going to say it's a massive betting event, but like
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: everything else with the NFL, it does tend to dominate
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and it has become a big event for fans. It's
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: become a big event for new betters, you know, the
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: way the league has taken the draft on the road
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: the past few years. They've done it in Chicago, They've
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: done it in Nashville. This year they're doing it in Vegas. Obviously,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: when you do anything in Vegas, it's going to be
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: tied to betting. The betting markets for this year's draft
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: have been insane. We tonight Wednesday Night, Action Network, we
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: are having a really big event welcoming fans and other
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: attendees to something we're doing at a stadium swim at
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  Speaker 1: Circa We're really excited about it. I'm going to be there.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Chris Long is going to be there, Dan ravel Samantha
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Pavidi Um from the Action Network. It's going to be
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: a blast. My co host, my bff, my companion, Mike
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: and Padre. Simon Hunter is not going to be here.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing, Simon. Yeah, you know you decided not
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: to come because you were in Vegas last week. I'm
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: a generation older than you. I'm tired. I'm on the
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: back half of my life. I was in San franci
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Us Go until late Sunday night, flew back to Connecticut.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Was Connecticut Monday, turned around, got on a plane, came
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: out here for the event late Tuesday night. That's how
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: I rule, Simon. I looked at the other way. Where
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I cost the Action Network zero dollars other than a paycheck.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Have I charged you guys for driving up New York
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: doing that stupid photo shoot with you? No, I didn't
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: expense it. I ate the charge, ate the hotel bill
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: because I'm a gentleman. I was in Vegas. You guys
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: had offered a fly me to Vegas even though I
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: was already there, and put him up in a hotel
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: for two nights. But um, yeah, at the time you
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: weren't going. There was no Chris Long, which you have
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: to tell Chris Long this fun fact. I am from
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: the same hometown as his girlfriend and his his wife's
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: name's last name used to be O'Malley. Nice to chill
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: with her brother, Joe O'Malley. And it is really weird
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: anytime I think back to this kid I used to
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: smoke like blunts with is now chilling with Chris Long
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: all the time. Um, it's just a really small world.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Like Chris longing a meeting his wife at college, which
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: is a girl I went to high school with, megano mallick. Well, listen,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I will uh, I'll be sure to tell him all
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: these things. Joe O'Malley. That's how he would know I
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: really know Joel Malley. Who's Joe Malley again, that's her brother,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: her brother with her brother Joe. Yeah, he was like
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: all American in baseball. He's a legend, got it all right?
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: So yeah, sorry, Jed, Yeah I'm not. I'm not in Vegas.
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  Speaker 1: I wish I was there. I mean it would be
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: a good time, but yeah, I literally I went to
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Vegas Nights game Sunday night and then flew out Monday morning. Um,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: but if you are in Vegas, sorry to cut you
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: off on more time. You have until five pm Vegas time,
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  Speaker 1: so a pm Eastern to make any draft bet until
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: all the sports books take all the lines down. It's
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: just because Vegas is hoping the draft. So again, eight
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: pm Eastern, five pm Pacific, that's the last time you
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  Speaker 1: can make bets today in Las Vegas. Well look, let's
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: talk about it, right because this has been a crazy week.
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  Speaker 1: It's similar to what it was last year heading into
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  Speaker 1: the draft, there was a lot of movement in that
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: number three spot and lines were going crazy all of
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: a sudden this week, Um, Trayvon Walker from Georgia, the
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  Speaker 1: defensive lineman is projected to go number one and Aidan
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Hutchinson now projected to go number two. And I know that.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: I saw you put into Action Network ap track and
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: your picks. You put in another aid and Hunchinson plus
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  Speaker 1: money pick to go number one. Um, what's you're thinking?
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: What's your logic on that? Particularly? And then I have
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: a follow up question for you. Yeah, I should have
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: kept waiting. I thought it was just a reaction to
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Peter King's mock draft because again he puts it out
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: either Sunday like at like eleven pm or twelve pm
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  Speaker 1: Eastern or when now we're he puts it on Monday
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  Speaker 1: morning like six am. And then you just saw this
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  Speaker 1: line splip because he had Walker at the number one
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  Speaker 1: position from I think you might have been the second
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  Speaker 1: pick or a third pick to be in the number
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  Speaker 1: one pick over Aiden Hutchinson. And you know, I've I'm
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: wired Chat. I just trying to fade the media because
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I just think a lot of these guys, not that
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: they're throwing against the one open a stick, but it's
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: like no one really knows, and people like me, who
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: my job is to find good sources and we pay
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of money for these moles and these sources
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  Speaker 1: and in these different teams. And the reason I double
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: down on Aid and I'm still buying. I mean, it's
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: gonna be scary when he's not the one to go.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: But um, basically, the guy we have on the inside
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  Speaker 1: says the owner of the Jaguars is the one that
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  Speaker 1: wants to take Aiden and the GM is the one
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  Speaker 1: that does not. Um. I mean, how often have we
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  Speaker 1: heard of this scenario? And usually the owner wins out.
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  Speaker 1: So interesting that I think people are going off all
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: these mock drafts, all the mocks I looked at just
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: before we hopped on here online again a quick glance
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  Speaker 1: through a couple I'd say seventy eight big media companies.
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  Speaker 1: Most of the guys now have Walker a number one.
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  Speaker 1: Very few still have Aiden left there at number two.
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  Speaker 1: So it is interesting. UM definitely, definitely gonna be hurt
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  Speaker 1: to get burned on the first pick, but that's that's
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: how it goes. And luckily I'm not overly invested in it. UM.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I have been betting Aiden, but it's nothing close we
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: we did last year with Mac Jones and that because
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: that was again I was able to bet that for
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: over a month beforehand. If I'm trying to get a
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: lot of money down today, most books let me three
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: books today, so it's not like you can get really
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: big money down anyway. Yeah, it's become really interesting. The
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: whole Aidan Hutchinson has has bounced around. We had this
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: great tweet yesterday, a graphic that we put out where
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: we went back to mock drafts from this summer of one,
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  Speaker 1: and it was Spencer Rattler as like the shortest odds
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  Speaker 1: to be taken number one overall, and then like Aidan
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  Speaker 1: Hutchinson has been up there three or four times as
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  Speaker 1: the shortest odds to be taken number one overall. And
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: now all of a sudden, we're forty eight hours from
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  Speaker 1: the draft and Trayvon Walker is getting all the attention
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  Speaker 1: and now is minus money to go number one overall.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: That's what makes betting on the draft so interesting. That's
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  Speaker 1: why it's become such a big deal. Is is fans
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: can engage in this entirely based on speculation and reporting
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: and what they're seeing in mocks, and there's no analysis
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  Speaker 1: that can be done about what's actually Like when you
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: bet a game in the NFL, you can analyze things
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: on the field. Here, there's nothing to analyze it. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I mean one process at best. You said this year draft,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: it's like someone gave you a puzzle to do and
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: all the pieces are the same color. They go put
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: that together. That's what this draft is like. It's like
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  Speaker 1: you know what the pieces, you know where they should
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  Speaker 1: kind of go. We have no idea what order it's
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: going to go. And because again we're gonna talk about
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  Speaker 1: this upcoming episode, if one of these teams. Like if
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  Speaker 1: if Detroit goes crazy and takes Malik with that second pick,
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  Speaker 1: that would throw this whole draft into a tail smith
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  Speaker 1: because no one, no one has mocked that where the
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  Speaker 1: quarterbacks going to the top five. So to me, there's
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot of open room for chaos on this
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: draft because again the Walker news came out on Monday,
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  Speaker 1: there hasn't really been a set at top five. You
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: can go through all these people's different mocks. Everyone is
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: a different mock compared to last year. Sure the mac
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Jones thing was wrong, but most people had pits going
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  Speaker 1: for and you know they had the one and two
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  Speaker 1: and Zack Wilson and uh Trevor Lawrence. So I love
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: this year with the chaos. It just feels like there's
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  Speaker 1: so much unknown this year. It could be a really
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: fun draft. It is amazing you're not wrong. Like I'm
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: looking at right now, I've just got CBS Sports up
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: and Pete Prisco, oh I've known for years, and I
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: like he's got Evan Neil, Eden Hutchison, Cavan Thibodeaux eat
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Kim Kwanu a top four and then Charles Cross. If
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: you look at the guy next to him, Josh Edwards,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Trayvon Walker, Hutchison, Kwanu Tibodeaux, Evan Neil, and then the
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: guy next to him Trayvon Aiden Cavan, Kyle Hamilton's, uh,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: this is Chris Trepasso, Trayvon, Aiden Thibodeaux, Kyle Hamilton's Evan Neil.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: And then another guy, Ryan Wilson, the Kuamo Hutchinson, Neo Thibodeaux,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: am my gardener. And by the way, a lot of
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: these guys have Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis in the
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: top ten, both of them. It's okay, it's all chaos,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: and that's what I mean. It's like when I saw
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: fandel Is offering our lovely sponsored vandel Is offering draft
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: same game parlays, which means you can parlay. This gotta
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: be a top three picking, this gotta be a top
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: ten pick I was like, Holy crap, they're going to
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: make so much money because people are gonna be like, oh, well,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: look at all these marks have the same couple of
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: guys in this top five year we're looking to if
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: they go to a different website, it could be completely different.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: So exactly what you're just saying, Chad, it's it's going
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: to be to me, just such mayhem because some people
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: have two quarterbacks going to top ten, some guys don't
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: have quarterbacks going to pick twenties. So it's like, I
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: just don't think anyone really knows what's about to happen,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: and I love it. It's yeah, they're I mean, it's
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: full chaos, which is fantastic. That is what makes the
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: draft so much fun. It's funny that you mentioned the
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: single game parlays because we talk all the time about
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: the difference between professional betters, sharp betters and novice betters
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: square betters, and now with so many more states coming online,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: you know, net new betters for lack of a better term,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: the single game parlays the first basket props, the who
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: will score the first basket and who what the first
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: basket will be, but no run first inning props. I
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: know we're sort of tangent tangent ng here. But those
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: who have become so big, like those markets are so massive,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: and places like vanduel, like they're the ones setting the
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: tone for that. They've they've completely sort of unlocked something
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: incredibly powerful. Yeah, it's it's gonna come back around, though,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Like we're again we talked about the time. It's just
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: the early days of the sports gambling stuff. And like, again,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not the biggest social media guy, but I see
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: that there's people that this is what they do. They
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: put the same game parlays, they hit one once a
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: blue moon, but they build a following that way where
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: it's like, oh my god, look at this guy turning
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: a thousand bucks into a hundred thousand bucks, and it's like, yeah,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: there's a reason they're letting these guys do these kind
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: of bets. It's like, if I was a sports book,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I will let anyone in the world do as many
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: same game party as they want to do. It's just
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: you know the math chat. Every time you add a
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: game to your bet, your odds decreased by a lot.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: It's like every time it drops a percentage, you're devaluing
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: your own money. So yeah, I do parlays though, like
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not a robot. If I go to a sports book,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I might bet say thirty K and a handful of games.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I'll do a hundred dollars sixteen game parlette hundred dollars,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Like that's one like thousands of what I've just bet
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: because it doesn't matter to me lose that hundred. So
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: when people do these parlays, I'm like, yeah, if you're
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: doing five bucks two dollars, go ahead, do these crazy parlays.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: But once you started betting the same amount, if you're
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: betting a hundred bucks on a straight bet and then
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: you're betting a hundred bucks on a five team or
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: sixteen parlay, you are the reason Vegas is what it is, like,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: you're the reason they have all the lights on. So
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: I try to tell people that people don't care, like
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I see it all the time, like the thing I
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: hate and I don't want to hate it because I
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: get it is entertainment. Is when people are like sports
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: betting supposed to be fun, it's entertainment, Like no one's
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: gonna win money doing it. And it's like that is
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the most untrue statement you can make. Sports betting is
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: just discipline. So I just don't think, like right now,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: the information age, it's just terrible infolt getting out there. Again.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: This is a tangent, but it's like we're just in
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: such an early age that I'm again, I'm not gonna
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: call people out and do that kind of stuff because
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: eventually the cream always rise to the top. Eventually these
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: people will stop following these people that are like giving
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: out five game parlays every day and doing crazy stuff
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: like that. Where it's like, if you can be disciplined
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: and have a method to your madness, it's a very
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: profitable business to be a sports better. But if you're
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: looking for like we talk the times, you're looking to
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: get rich quick, this just ain't for you. It's like
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the stock market, no one, no one's getting rich quick.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: So I try to tell people that people don't want
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: to hear it. They just want to be betting the
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: same game barlays, which again I do it. It's just
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: had a very small amount. There are some interesting I
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what markets if these are markets that are
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: available from a partly point of view, Three defensive linemen
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: in the top five, because it could be Trayvon Walker,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: could be Aiden Hutchinson, it could be Cavon Thibodeaux, could
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: also be Charles cross Um. It could entirely be like
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: an all lineman top five because it could be Evan
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Neil Thibodeaux, a Kwanu, Aidan Hutchinson, and Trayvon Walker. Yeah,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: but like again, when I'm thinking of if you want
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: to bet like chaos stuff, you kind of want to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: bet stuff at plus number. So like for me, I
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: would do it just because if it's a plus number,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good value. Um. The same game parlay stuff
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: is crazy where say I do have a big position
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: right now on Aiden, you can do Walker being the
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: first pick overall and take Willis to be the first quarterback.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Take and you can parlay that together. You can get
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: plus two hundred on that. So that's one of those
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: where if I need to buy it on my business
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: of Aiden, I can take Aidan right now plus three hundred.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: If I want to hedge it, take take plus two
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: hundred because we all think it is gonna be Willis
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the first quarterback with Walker being the first pick. So
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: that's what to me. The same game parlays you can
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: use it as an advantage. You just have to be swabby.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: So I'm I'm like interested in looking at that right now,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Like I just put up the fandul thing. You can
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: pretty much do anything you can really think of. Like
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: they have a lot of options right now with Fandel
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: for same game parlay. I don't know about other websites.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: They don't sponsor us. But just looking at vandal right now,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: they have a decent amount of options here in New Jersey.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: So if you're into this kind of stuff people again,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: it is fun to do. Just please do it at
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: a much smaller amount. Listen, you know I love you
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: to death, but I don't know why the funk you
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: just said swavey. What the hell does swavey mean? I
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: don't even know. Like smart? You gotta be smart about it.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: You meant you were like I think you were combineding
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: like swave and savvy together. Yeah, you just you made
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: up a brand new word. I love that. Hey, hoops fans,
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  Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia if you were betting right now,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: let's say you can bet right now. Are you betting
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Evan Neil or et Cama Kuanu to be the first
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: lineman drafted offensive lineman. Oh, A lot of stuff has
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: come out, but Evan, you know, not passing the physical
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: or apparently a red flag had popped during his um
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: combined physical. I don't know. When you hear that stuff
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: the week of the draft from a multiple sources Newton
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: News media outlets, you have to kind of pay attention
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: to that stuff. So I really did like him because
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: you just, to me, the most guaranteed to be the best,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: you know, NFL offensive linem. He's just very consistent. But yeah, Kuanu,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: he's a freak and he's huge. So to me, he's
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: got no no real questions that the whole the whole
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: difference was he just wasn't as polished. I honestly liked
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: that value. Now taking him, that would be the first
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: lineman taken, a quantum first lineman take it. So then
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: it gets interesting, Aidan Hutchinson, because I want to I
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: want to go through like the offensive lineman, first lineman taken,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: defensive lineman, first lineman taken quarterback taken, and then um cornerback,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: defensive back. I would say cornerback because I think Kyle
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Hamiltons will be the first probably defensive back taking overall,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: but those are four, I don't know friendly important. You know,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: all right, well let's talk about it. So we think
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: a Kwana is going to be the first lineman taken.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: You're putting your money down Aidan Hutchinson, Trayvon Walker, first
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: defensive lineman taken. Again, I still believe in the Aidan
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: just because I just see him as a guy that
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: could come in this year and have eight sacks and
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: fifteen tackle for losses. He just he is what he
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: is and he's gonna keep getting better. He's again he's
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: a Boaser brother. He's just this really stud athletic guy,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: where Walkers upsides higher because he's a freak athlete like
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: he is. Like again, Aiden is just as much as
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: a freak athlete, just this guy. Walker has more room
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: to grow. But when you throw in the college tape again,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: it's like Walker was an ended of the first round
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: pick coming in like just two months ago. Guy's remarking
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: him like that he had a pretty good draft combine.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: I get that but it's like, I just think it
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: would be a bad pick for the Jaguars. There's too
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: much risk for a pick they need to nail with Aiden.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: It's just a guarantee of what he's gonna be. It's like,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: this guy's guaranteed to make five Pro Bowls in his career.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Can he be a Hall of Famer maybe, but I
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: do think he's guarantee pro bowler. Um. Yeah, for the chaos,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: like you just said that, the cornerback thing, to me,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: that's where the whole wrinkle can start beginning because there's
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: just so much unknown right now with Houston at their pick.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: Like I really saw a couple of weeks people had
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Sauce there for the first quarterback tack and the third
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: pick overall. Then you've seen him drop out and it's like,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, it's Derek's stinger, Terry. I see
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: that roun Derek Stingley, He's like Dad is one of
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: the most famous stories NFL history from what year seventies something. Yeah,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: I was busy not being existed. Um he's he's jumping
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: up there. People love this kid at of l s
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: U so I see him as high as number three
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: in some mocks I know. That's what I'm saying. It's
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: just chaos. That's why it's like again, I want to
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: come on here and tell people to bet all this
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: crazy stuff. And it's like we had Scott um Smith
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: on yesterday and he had some really smart safe bets
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: which I have now given out to my own people
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: because I just thought it was really smart play, which
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: was right now, a lot of books have four and
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: a half for the over under cornerbacks. That's a great betraing.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: I bet that over. Like we're I'm looking at a
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: bunch of different mocks right now. Have three cornerbacks in
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: the top twelve, top fifteen picks, that means joining you
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: two more drafted um the next seventeen picks. It's like
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: they're just that's what you're looking for. You're looking for
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: something where there's a lot of consistency in these mock ups. Again,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not I'm telling you to fade all these mocks.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I'm saying, Chad just went through these. All these mocks
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: are so different. This top ten, there's just a lot
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: of room for variants where it's like, I, as much
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: as I would love to tell people that yeah, there
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: won't be a top ten quarterbacks for check and dance
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: on my grave and be like I told you there
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: was gonna be a top ten quarterback. The math fours
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: out where it's like the Saints have two draft picks,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: they kind of need a quarterback. Atlanta has talked about
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: pre draft that they want a quarterback because they don't
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: have one right now. And the Seahawks, I don't know
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: what they're doing. I still think they're one of those
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: teams waiting on Baker they get released. But the Seahawks
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: Drew Lock is not They're going to be their quarterback
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: this year. I just can't see it. So there are
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: teams in Carolina as well. There are teams in the
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: top ten that neat quarterbacks. It's just interesting where so
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: many people have mocked no quarterbacks in the top ten
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: and you have guys that are mocking two quarterbacks in
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: the top ten. So I've been betting on that where
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: it's like Malik right now was over runner. I thinks
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: eleven and a a half on Fame too. I've been been
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: in the under at a plus number for him to
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: be in the top ten. So I like the value
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: on those kind of belts that you mentioned the cornerbacks. Uh,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: everyone's talking about Derek Stingley on that Gardener, Um, Trent McDuffie,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: and then uh, the two guys that if you're betting
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the over three and a half, you're kind of betting
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: on Andrew Booth from Clemson and Kyle Goreon from Washington
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: as being the guys who might sneak into the probably
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: the last seven, eight nine picks of the first round. Um,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: but if you were to make a bet on who
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: would be the first one taken, do you think it's
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Stingy or do you think it's Gardner Given the way
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: the trends have been going. Honestly, I think it's gonna
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: be Solaced Gardner like I had him going to the Jets. Um,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: because I do have I do have Houston having one
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: of these old funds of Lineen dropped him. I don't
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: know if it's gonna be Neil or COONa. But um, again,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: I'm lower. That's my whole issue here is I'm I'm
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: lower on Walker. I had I had Walker on my
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: top ten, I didn't haven't been a top three picks,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it's if if Walker drops. There's just a
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: lot of guys that are gonna get bumped up here
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: in the quarterbacks one of all. I mean, I don't
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: want to talk about abut Kyle Hamilton because he's a coworker.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: We love him, we love the Valume network. Um I
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: have to bet his over right now. I think they
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: haven't set at eleven and a half or ten and
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: a half at vandel safety is it is a It
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: is a key position for sure, but we've just seen
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: the way the NFL is It's like, is it one
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: of the top five most important positions to a team?
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know. We can go through where it's like quarterback,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: offensive lineman, d line, why receiver. I mean, we've seen
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: they begin paid the highest right buying quarterbacks this offseason,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: and it's like, it's just hard for me to make
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: a safety at top ten pick where that's not that's
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: not how you change your team. Really, we know what
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: We have too few examples of a team drafting the
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: safety that changed their whole makeup. So I love Kyle.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be incredible professional. Um, I just
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: I can't see him going top ten. So that's one
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: of those where I'm down on that. But again, shout
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: out to our guys Scott Smith. He said he loves
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: the over one and a half safety is taken on
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: the first round. I think it's up to minus three
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: hundred at Vandel. That's a lot of juice. But like
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: he talked about, there's who different safety is that might
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: get in the very end of that first round. So
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good value. If you think three safeties might
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: be going in the first round, the over undersend a
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: one and a half. All right, So I want to
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: summarize here because I do want people to be able
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: to go listen to this and make some moves since
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: the windows are closing. Uh over, we don't have safety
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: in the first round. Over four and a half cornerbacks
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: taking in the first five or six, So that's good value.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: And then you know, if you can get a there's
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: a couple of single game parlays. What was the one
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: you mentioned, Trayvon Walker and Malik Willis. Yeah, so Trayvon
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Walker would be the first pick and then Malik Willis
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: be the first quarterback taking. I believe last night it
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: was like plus two twenty. Um, it might be down
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit just because Walker's odds just keep going up,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: like right, before we hopped on, his odds have gone
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: on even more so. Um, again, these lines are gonna
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: be moving like crazy. That's why I can't wait for
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: tomorrow morning, because that's when you kind of really know
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: what the deal is. Again, there's always a curveball, but
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: usually when you wake up in the Vegas guys have
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: kind of done their business and they've had their runners
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: around the country make bets for him. They usually know
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Thursday morning what the real deals. Again, we did a
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: show last year I had breaking news like was that
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: eleven am So yeah, yes, it's a lot of chaos
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: draft day and that's why again we just talked about
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: the sports books in Vegas. They're just talking at risk
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: and they're taking their lines now, all right. We have
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: done a lot of draft coverage on this podcast, a
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: lot of draft beating coverage, because it's becoming a thing.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: It just is there's too many markets to ignore. There's
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: too much variants at the top of the draft board,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: too many people with too many opinions that people can
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: listen to and try to make some money off of.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: I would say exercise caution. I would say do it
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: for fun, um, do not do it for profit. Do
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: it to give you a little bit of a rooting
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: interest Thursday night. Um, I think that's all I have
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: to say about this one. Sun Well, I gotta ask
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: you before we go, what do you think about your
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: boy Robert Quinn might be getting traded? What do you
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: have eight and a half sacks last year and you
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: guys are on to get a first round pick for him?
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: That makes you kind of good, right because the Bears
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: have what picks sixty something right now? Yeah? I think
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: we got to get into the first round. Um. And
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I think with with lineman, like it with defensive with
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: edge rushers, it goes fast. And I think that you know,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: you can get eighteen sacks and have that record breaking
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: year and the next year you getting ate. And we
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: saw with Cleo Mac right, and so I'm glad they
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: got rid of Cleo mac I'm fine if they get
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: rid of Robert Quinn. The truth is, if we all
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: believe that Justin Fields is a dynamic offensive presence, then
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: we have to do everything we can to protect him
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: and get him weapons. And as much as we as
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Chicago fans love, love, love the idea that we have
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: a dominant defense and that nothing is better than Bears
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: defense in December. We can't waste justin fields, and so
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: trade everything you can to get the assets you need
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: on the offensive side of the ball. That's what I think,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: even if it's assets for next year, because it's your
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: GM left you guys in such a bad hole like
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: the new GM that's coming in. Not that you have
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: to do a total tear down, but I think he
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: is looking at Ward it's like, Okay, Roger's just read
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: up with Green Bay. They have a minimum another two
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: years that'll be doing Roger stuff, like still being dominant.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: I have me trade Robert just because it's like, like
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: you just said, next year, he could not do what
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: he did this year, Like he might have ten sexs,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: which is a great season, but selling a guy after
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: eighteen a half sacks, that's that's the move when you're
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: a team that's not really doing anything next year. So
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: I I hope that I've read it's true and that
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: they were moving to trick in the first round, because again,
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: they're just gonna be wasting years here of justin fields.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: And it's like, you can't do that when we have
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: a rookie contract. You got three years left, right, and
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: that's then you got a role alright, so it sounded
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: to wrap it up. Back to Vegas. Get back to
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Vegas for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Noman. This has
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast network. UH
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: downloaded from Apple podcast, from Spotify. Whatever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: give us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: a gift. Until next time. I love you, M M