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Are We Overlooking a MAJOR Factor in our Midterm Calculations?? · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Panic day has come and gone,
• 0:02
  but I have one final potential saving grace for the GOP in the midterms.
• 0:05
  I will tell you all about it today.
• 0:07
  If you haven't heard the name Wedgwood Polls before,
• 0:10
  you're not gonna believe what they've been up to this election season.
• 0:13
  And I will defend the castle against the throngs at the gates
• 0:17
  as another idiotic lawsuit is filed against Prediction Markets.
• 0:20
  We'll get into that,
• 0:21
  all of that coming up,
• 0:22
  and so much more on Predictable
• 0:24
  with Stu.
• 0:40
  We have 13 days until the midterm elections.
• 0:43
  Early voting is happening in 36 states.
• 0:45
  That's where we stand
• 0:47
  today,
• 0:48
  and I will say tonight.
• 0:50
  You might be saying,
• 0:51
  wow,
• 0:51
  well,
• 0:51
  what's going on tonight?
• 0:52
  Lots of,
• 0:53
  uh,
• 0:53
  there's NBA on some of the first games of
• 0:56
  the season for many NBA teams coming up tonight.
• 0:58
  Sure,
• 0:58
  that's on the,
• 0:59
  that's on the docket if you want to get into that.
• 1:01
  But also big debate night.
• 1:02
  Uh,
• 1:03
  honestly,
• 1:03
  we should check to see which bench markets there are.
• 1:05
  Adam,
• 1:06
  uh,
• 1:06
  for these debates tonight.
• 1:07
  Three huge ones,
• 1:08
  I will say tonight.
• 1:08
  I mean,
• 1:09
  legitimately huge debates.
• 1:10
  Michigan Senate,
• 1:11
  Al Sayed versus Rogers at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time tonight.
• 1:15
  The Kansas Senate,
• 1:16
  we haven't heard too much out of this.
• 1:17
  There's been some crazy,
• 1:18
  they had a crazy debate earlier at like a fair.
• 1:21
  I don't know,
• 1:21
  maybe this one's gonna be more normal.
• 1:22
  Roger Marshall versus Adam Hamilton.
• 1:24
  That's 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
• 1:26
  And Wisconsin governor is not a race that has had a lot of attention.
• 1:29
  The polling's still pretty close there,
• 1:30
  and I never,
• 1:31
  uh,
• 1:31
  one of the rules on this program,
• 1:32
  never trust a poll from Wisconsin ever.
• 1:35
  Um,
• 1:36
  Wisconsin Governor David Crowley versus Tom Tiffany,
• 1:39
  that's 8:00 p.m. tonight as well.
• 1:41
  Uh,
• 1:41
  Minnesota governors also tonight,
• 1:42
  Klobuchar and Dumuth,
• 1:43
  which has been,
• 1:44
  you know,
• 1:45
  relatively close.
• 1:46
  Minnesota has been kind of a weird state.
• 1:47
  Uh,
• 1:48
  to watch for the sort of Democratic blue wave we're supposed to see.
• 1:51
  Uh,
• 1:51
  one reminder,
• 1:52
  uh,
• 1:52
  for you,
• 1:52
  go to Senatefantasy.com,
• 1:54
  get your Senate fantasy picks in.
• 1:55
  We've got a chance for you to win up to $2500
• 1:58
  plus a lifetime subscription to PredictableShow.com as part of that first place
• 2:03
  prize.
• 2:04
  Uh,
• 2:04
  we have a great,
• 2:05
  uh,
• 2:05
  group.
• 2:05
  Group of teams on there and you can come up.
• 2:07
  Now we're gonna,
• 2:08
  maybe we'll give some prizes out too
• 2:10
  for the best names cause there's some great fantasy team names that I love
• 2:13
  on the Senate Fantasy leaderboard.
• 2:15
  So go check that out,
• 2:15
  even if you're not,
• 2:16
  I mean,
• 2:16
  look,
• 2:16
  it's free.
• 2:17
  Why would you not be in on it?
• 2:18
  But even if you're not in on it,
• 2:19
  go to the leaderboard
• 2:20
  at senatefantassy.com and laugh at all the names
• 2:22
  cause some of them are really creative.
• 2:24
  Um,
• 2:24
  I want to focus on.
• 2:27
  Polling error.
• 2:29
  Today.
• 2:31
  Polls are not perfect.
• 2:33
  You may know that,
• 2:35
  uh,
• 2:35
  that might be a little bit of an understatement,
• 2:37
  but what I always say about polling,
• 2:39
  and this is something that it's important to understand,
• 2:41
  is that polling is not designed to be a surgical incident,
• 2:44
  uh,
• 2:44
  uh,
• 2:45
  instrument.
• 2:45
  It is designed to be a blunt instrument.
• 2:48
  It tells you
• 2:50
  very well,
• 2:50
  but the polls are really good at telling you general strokes,
• 2:53
  uh,
• 2:53
  broad strokes about the election,
• 2:55
  right?
• 2:55
  General themes about an election or a topic.
• 2:57
  They're very good at that.
• 2:59
  Um,
• 2:59
  they are not very good at surgical differences between two candidates at 48%.
• 3:05
  It's really hard for polls to do,
• 3:07
  and they don't do that very well.
• 3:08
  And we,
• 3:09
  uh,
• 3:09
  uh,
• 3:09
  as people who don't really care about the statistical background of polls,
• 3:14
  what we care about are the outcomes.
• 3:15
  Who's gonna win the race?
• 3:17
  For people who want,
• 3:19
  we are asking out of polls something that they're not really designed to give us.
• 3:23
  And we are constantly demanding these,
• 3:25
  uh,
• 3:26
  very intricate differences in,
• 3:27
  in races that are just,
• 3:29
  you know,
• 3:29
  it's,
• 3:29
  it's just not what polling does well.
• 3:32
  Can be good,
• 3:33
  but it isn't always.
• 3:34
  And you look at the polls right now,
• 3:35
  they're not very good if you happen to be a Republican or a conservative.
• 3:38
  If you are a Democrat or a liberal,
• 3:39
  you're loving the polls right now.
• 3:41
  You can't get enough polling content.
• 3:43
  So let me break,
• 3:44
  uh,
• 3:44
  there's two new polls out today.
• 3:46
  Uh,
• 3:47
  two pretty big ones
• 3:49
  that,
• 3:49
  um,
• 3:50
  that aren't about each individual race or more
• 3:52
  generally thematic of the race and talking about,
• 3:55
  is there a blue wave and how big will it be?
• 3:58
  Let me start off with this one.
• 3:59
  This is one of the,
• 4:00
  you know,
• 4:00
  the biggest pollsters out there,
• 4:01
  New York Times,
• 4:02
  Sienna College.
• 4:04
  Um,
• 4:05
  Democrats have a wide lead in our new poll as Trump slides.
• 4:08
  Part of the story here,
• 4:10
  of course,
• 4:10
  is Donald Trump and his approval rating,
• 4:11
  which is not very good.
• 4:12
  You may have heard,
• 4:14
  not exactly,
• 4:15
  uh,
• 4:15
  stellar at the moment with,
• 4:16
  uh,
• 4:17
  registered voters.
• 4:18
  This is of course a poll.
• 4:19
  This is,
• 4:19
  I believe,
• 4:20
  a likely voter poll.
• 4:21
  Um,
• 4:22
  I know it is a likely voter,
• 4:23
  uh,
• 4:23
  poll,
• 4:24
  which is common at this point in the campaign.
• 4:26
  You're not gonna necessarily do a registered voter or all adults
• 4:28
  poll because it's not really gonna give you that much information.
• 4:30
  You want likely voters.
• 4:32
  So
• 4:32
  this,
• 4:33
  uh,
• 4:33
  particular chart from The New York Times,
• 4:34
  and it is a chart of Palooza today,
• 4:36
  we've got a lot of charts coming.
• 4:37
  In your way,
• 4:38
  uh,
• 4:38
  of course,
• 4:38
  you on podcast,
• 4:39
  if you're listening on audio,
• 4:40
  I will do my best to describe these for you,
• 4:43
  um,
• 4:43
  but this is how support for Donald Trump has changed
• 4:46
  over time.
• 4:47
  In 2020,
• 4:48
  he was about a this is among,
• 4:49
  uh,
• 4:49
  younger voters,
• 4:50
  by the way,
• 4:51
  uh,
• 4:51
  he's about a -25,
• 4:53
  but you expect him to be kind of in the negative among younger voters.
• 4:56
  In 2024,
• 4:57
  he went from -25
• 4:58
  up into about -8,
• 5:00
  not too bad for Donald Trump in,
• 5:02
  uh,
• 5:02
  January in 2024 for that election.
• 5:05
  By January 2026,
• 5:06
  it had gone from -8
• 5:08
  to -46.
• 5:12
  In January,
• 5:13
  and today,
• 5:14
  it sits at -55.
• 5:17
  That's not good
• 5:19
  for non-white voters,
• 5:20
  you see a -35 in,
• 5:22
  uh,
• 5:22
  in,
• 5:23
  uh,
• 5:23
  back in 2020
• 5:24
  turn into,
• 5:25
  um,
• 5:26
  about a -20 in 2024.
• 5:28
  Still not a great number,
• 5:28
  but much,
• 5:29
  much better than he was.
• 5:30
  Uh,
• 5:31
  now it is all the way down to over -50.
• 5:33
  Regis all registered voters,
• 5:35
  here we go,
• 5:35
  registered voters,
• 5:36
  you're at -5.
• 5:38
  0,
• 5:38
  I just got a major buzz in my ear there.
• 5:40
  Ouch,
• 5:41
  that hurt.
• 5:42
  That hurt.
• 5:43
  Um,
• 5:43
  you now have a half-deaf host.
• 5:45
  Um,
• 5:46
  OK,
• 5:46
  registered voters at -8,
• 5:48
  uh,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:50
  was where he was back in 2020.
• 5:52
  He brought it up to basically even
• 5:54
  for the 2024 election,
• 5:55
  that backed off to about -13.
• 5:58
  Uh,
• 5:58
  in 20 in January of this year and is now at -25.
• 6:02
  The pattern is similar for almost all
• 6:04
  of these voters.
• 6:06
  Um,
• 6:06
  you're seeing a drop,
• 6:08
  with the exception of white voters who have dropped kind of like
• 6:10
  very minimally until January and then a big drop till today.
• 6:13
  Uh,
• 6:13
  everything else has been kind of this like U-turn,
• 6:15
  right?
• 6:15
  Where it was at a kind of at a bad point,
• 6:18
  reversed to kind of a good point,
• 6:19
  and has now gotten to an even worse point than where it started.
• 6:22
  That is where Donald Trump is.
• 6:23
  Now,
• 6:24
  again,
• 6:25
  presidential approval rating does not tell the entire story.
• 6:28
  You can believe or not believe these polls.
• 6:30
  What I would say is to believe the generalities.
• 6:33
  Don't get caught up in the specific numbers,
• 6:35
  get caught up a little bit in the generalities here,
• 6:37
  which is
• 6:38
  that Donald Trump is not very popular right now.
• 6:40
  We can give you the reasons for that.
• 6:41
  We've talked about it before,
• 6:42
  the Iran war is central,
• 6:44
  I think,
• 6:44
  to
• 6:45
  the falloff at least from January of this year.
• 6:48
  I mean,
• 6:48
  it's almost all Iran war related since then,
• 6:51
  but there are other things that kind of pushed him into
• 6:53
  a more negative position before that as well that are factors.
• 6:57
  This is a jarring chart I'm about to show you.
• 6:59
  And this is a chart that can put
• 7:02
  the potential of a blue tsunami,
• 7:05
  blue wave
• 7:06
  into
• 7:07
  perspective.
• 7:07
  Again,
• 7:08
  this is not about this negative polling.
• 7:10
  I'm going to talk about polling error here in a second,
• 7:12
  so don't get caught up if you're like,
• 7:13
  oh gosh,
• 7:14
  I want,
• 7:14
  I want good things for.
• 7:15
  Republicans don't get caught up in the bad news,
• 7:17
  uh,
• 7:17
  yet.
• 7:17
  And if you are a person who's on the left and you're saying,
• 7:20
  oh,
• 7:20
  this is the greatest news of all time,
• 7:21
  uh,
• 7:21
  hold on,
• 7:22
  because these things might not be true.
• 7:23
  But
• 7:24
  generally
• 7:25
  speaking,
• 7:25
  Donald Trump is not a very popular president right now.
• 7:27
  This is the list of presidents going back to the 40s,
• 7:30
  um,
• 7:31
  all of them together and where they were going into their midterms.
• 7:34
  The least popular one among them.
• 7:36
  Was Harry S.
• 7:37
  Truman at 33% approval rating.
• 7:40
  You might remember that Harry S.
• 7:41
  Truman actually turned out to be relatively popular by the,
• 7:44
  uh,
• 7:44
  historically speaking.
• 7:47
  However,
• 7:47
  you see the people around him.
• 7:49
  Harry Truman in 1950 also not popular.
• 7:51
  George Bush in 2006 is an illustrative example.
• 7:55
  He was at 37% approval
• 7:57
  in between
• 7:58
  Harry Truman and George W.
• 7:59
  Bush
• 8:00
  in his second term.
• 8:02
  Donald Trump,
• 8:02
  34% approval.
• 8:04
  If you could go down a little while,
• 8:06
  you will eventually get to Ronald Reagan
• 8:08
  at 42%,
• 8:10
  who wound up being very popular just a couple of years after that 1982 poll.
• 8:14
  Uh,
• 8:15
  Barack Obama in 2014 was only at 42%.
• 8:18
  It's looked back
• 8:19
  at positively certainly by the media.
• 8:21
  2018,
• 8:22
  Donald Trump
• 8:23
  at 42%
• 8:25
  in his first midterm,
• 8:26
  so he is.
• 8:27
  Less popular by 8 points from his first midterm,
• 8:30
  he is less popular than 2006 George W.
• 8:33
  Bush,
• 8:33
  which I will remind you was a catastrophic year for Republicans.
• 8:36
  That does not mean
• 8:37
  this is the only factor.
• 8:39
  But it is gonna give you a sense as to where
• 8:42
  things stand right now in the uphill battle that Republicans are looking at.
• 8:46
  The generic poll was also in here,
• 8:47
  to remind you,
• 8:48
  uh,
• 8:48
  for non-polling nerds,
• 8:49
  the generic poll is a poll that basically asks you,
• 8:52
  hey,
• 8:52
  you're gonna vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate this time.
• 8:55
  And,
• 8:56
  uh,
• 8:56
  so it gives you kind of a just a party,
• 8:58
  two-party idea as to where things stand.
• 9:00
  The reason why this is important is it kind of
• 9:02
  gives you a tone of the climate of an election.
• 9:04
  What is the current of the election?
• 9:06
  What is the,
• 9:06
  what's the playing field look like in this game we're about to begin?
• 9:10
  Uh,
• 9:11
  that poll right now is
• 9:13
  -11
• 9:14
  for Republicans,
• 9:15
  according to The New York Times,
• 9:17
  52 to 41
• 9:19
  is the number.
• 9:20
  -11
• 9:21
  is,
• 9:22
  you know,
• 9:23
  legitimately catastrophic.
• 9:24
  If that's the real number on election day,
• 9:26
  this will be a blue tsunami.
• 9:29
  It will be a situation where Democrats
• 9:31
  not only pick up the House and the Senate,
• 9:33
  but have major
• 9:34
  gains to the point they might be at,
• 9:35
  you know,
• 9:36
  53,
• 9:36
  54,
• 9:37
  55 seats in the Senate.
• 9:38
  So that's what that is.
• 9:39
  Now,
• 9:39
  let me give you another poll.
• 9:40
  Uh,
• 9:40
  Strength in numbers is,
• 9:42
  uh,
• 9:42
  has a new poll out.
• 9:43
  Democrats post their biggest generic ballot lead,
• 9:45
  uh,
• 9:45
  yet
• 9:46
  two weeks out.
• 9:47
  Here is their poll.
• 9:48
  You see how it's bounced around from time to time,
• 9:50
  but currently at 52 to 41%.
• 9:52
  And again,
• 9:53
  an 11 point lead.
• 9:54
  On the generic
• 9:56
  ballot,
• 9:56
  a,
• 9:57
  a massive one,
• 9:58
  frankly.
• 9:59
  Again,
• 9:59
  I think
• 10:00
  if you think of the two
• 10:01
  recent
• 10:03
  terrible elections
• 10:04
  for,
• 10:05
  um,
• 10:06
  Republicans that were midterms,
• 10:07
  you think of 2018,
• 10:09
  very bad year.
• 10:10
  The generic ballot at that point was about a -8 for Republicans.
• 10:14
  Uh,
• 10:15
  2006,
• 10:15
  I don't have that one actually in front of me,
• 10:17
  but it was worse than 2018.
• 10:19
  It might have been 2010 or 2011,
• 10:20
  I can't remember what that number was.
• 10:22
  Um,
• 10:22
  so you're going back that far,
• 10:24
  you do see these types of outcomes in the generic ballot,
• 10:27
  if those polls are accurate,
• 10:29
  and we're about to get into whether they,
• 10:30
  we should consider them to be.
• 10:32
  Uh,
• 10:33
  that this would be catastrophic levels for,
• 10:35
  uh,
• 10:35
  Republicans,
• 10:36
  and you'd be looking at,
• 10:37
  uh,
• 10:37
  pretty much every race that was winnable for
• 10:40
  Democrats
• 10:41
  wouldn't be won.
• 10:42
  There'd always be some exceptions on either side of that,
• 10:44
  but generally speaking,
• 10:45
  that's what we'd be looking for.
• 10:46
  So right now.
• 10:47
  This is
• 10:49
  the tone of most polling.
• 10:51
  Most polling will tell you,
• 10:53
  Democrats have a massive lead,
• 10:54
  and this is going to look very,
• 10:55
  very bad for Republicans.
• 10:57
  So what we're looking at right now
• 10:59
  is one of two things,
• 11:00
  either
• 11:01
  a very,
• 11:02
  very bad Republican year,
• 11:04
  or
• 11:05
  a very,
• 11:05
  very bad polling error
• 11:07
  that we're looking at over a lot of pollsters
• 11:10
  at the same time.
• 11:12
  I bring this to your attention before we set up what we're about to go through,
• 11:15
  which is,
• 11:16
  should we be looking at a polling error?
• 11:18
  What does that actually look like?
• 11:19
  I know it feels like every polls wrong all the time.
• 11:21
  What are the actual stats about it?
• 11:22
  What's the history,
• 11:23
  and how does all this work?
• 11:24
  What does it mean if there is a polling error?
• 11:26
  So I wanna go through that in a second.
• 11:27
  But I,
• 11:28
  I do wanna make sure we pause and say that
• 11:30
  it is likely
• 11:32
  that
• 11:32
  the tone of a blue lean in this election is not some media creation.
• 11:39
  There is a lot of data out there to show
• 11:42
  that what we're looking at here is a left-leaning electorate,
• 11:45
  an electorate that's just pissed off,
• 11:47
  you know,
• 11:48
  like they're pissed off at the,
• 11:48
  the way the world is,
• 11:49
  is right now,
• 11:50
  and they're probably gonna take it out at the on the party in power.
• 11:53
  That is what happens in every midterm
• 11:56
  with very,
• 11:57
  very few exceptions over the past century.
• 11:59
  So that's not something that should be unexpected.
• 12:01
  It should be something that you should be expecting.
• 12:03
  It's what I've expected coming into this election
• 12:05
  and warned you about a bunch of times.
• 12:07
  It's why I was in on the Democratic House
• 12:10
  a million years ago and it was in the 60s
• 12:12
  when we were talking about it going back to before the show even started.
• 12:17
  So that's
• 12:18
  the historic basis for all of this.
• 12:20
  The question though,
• 12:22
  is that what happens if there is a polling error.
• 12:26
  This has happened obviously many times.
• 12:28
  And there's a couple of them that you're gonna know about,
• 12:30
  obviously with Donald Trump in particular.
• 12:32
  But I wanna bring you back to take a wider look
• 12:35
  at polling and the errors that we've seen in polling over the years,
• 12:38
  especially as they apply to midterms.
• 12:40
  So let's go back to that first terrible year that I told you about
• 12:43
  in 2006.
• 12:44
  If you think about the context of this moment.
• 12:47
  You have,
• 12:47
  uh,
• 12:48
  Bush gets elected,
• 12:50
  9/11 happens,
• 12:51
  Afghanistan happens,
• 12:53
  Iraq happens,
• 12:54
  Bush is re-elected in 2004,
• 12:56
  and then we fast forward to 2006,
• 12:58
  and the war isn't going well.
• 13:01
  Uh,
• 13:01
  Bush is very unpopular,
• 13:02
  we just mentioned,
• 13:03
  37% approval rating.
• 13:05
  And they go into that midterm and get smoked in that midterm.
• 13:09
  The polling in that midterm,
• 13:10
  however,
• 13:11
  relatively accurate.
• 13:12
  In fact,
• 13:12
  one of the most accurate years
• 13:14
  we've ever had.
• 13:14
  2006,
• 13:15
  there was a,
• 13:16
  uh,
• 13:16
  uh,
• 13:16
  a polling error
• 13:18
  that,
• 13:19
  uh,
• 13:19
  favored Republicans only by 0.1% points.
• 13:23
  So,
• 13:23
  almost perfect.
• 13:24
  Now,
• 13:24
  when we talk about
• 13:25
  almost perfect,
• 13:26
  that doesn't mean there weren't misses in that cycle.
• 13:28
  But this is the most accurate cycle according to Nate Silver's silver bulletin,
• 13:32
  going back to 1998.
• 13:35
  What we're talking about here is a combined polling error.
• 13:38
  So we're averaging all the polling error out,
• 13:40
  um,
• 13:41
  across different categories.
• 13:42
  This doesn't mean there weren't misses in individual polls in that year.
• 13:46
  It's just that the overall picture was very,
• 13:48
  very accurate in 2006.
• 13:50
  2008,
• 13:51
  Barack Obama runs for president.
• 13:54
  Um,
• 13:54
  and,
• 13:54
  uh,
• 13:55
  another great year for Democrats,
• 13:57
  and a very good year for polls as well,
• 13:59
  less than a 1% error again,
• 14:01
  the polls came close favoring Democrats by just 0.8% points.
• 14:06
  So,
• 14:07
  good start here,
• 14:07
  right?
• 14:08
  Good start here
• 14:09
  as we go through the first couple of elections we're covering here.
• 14:11
  2010 happens.
• 14:13
  Now,
• 14:14
  over this time,
• 14:14
  we're seeing big
• 14:17
  changes in technology and,
• 14:18
  and polling's getting more and more difficult.
• 14:20
  Fewer people are responding to polls.
• 14:22
  There's a reason why these polls were more accurate
• 14:25
  back then than they feel right now.
• 14:27
  Um,
• 14:28
  so again,
• 14:28
  2010,
• 14:29
  the biggest wave election in a century,
• 14:31
  the Tea Party wave,
• 14:32
  as you might remember it,
• 14:33
  uh,
• 14:34
  goes massively in favor
• 14:35
  of Republicans.
• 14:37
  One of the reasons for that,
• 14:38
  by the way.
• 14:38
  Um,
• 14:39
  the reason why the numbers were so big is because you
• 14:41
  just had two big wins in a row for Democrats.
• 14:43
  So they have big majorities going into this.
• 14:45
  Republicans wipe out those majorities,
• 14:47
  smoke everybody,
• 14:48
  uh,
• 14:48
  in,
• 14:49
  uh,
• 14:49
  in the House and the Senate.
• 14:50
  But the polls again,
• 14:52
  very,
• 14:52
  very accurate that year.
• 14:53
  Republicans
• 14:54
  came,
• 14:54
  uh,
• 14:55
  were,
• 14:55
  were favored in the polls that time by just 0.3
• 14:59
  points.
• 15:00
  2012 is one that you may remember being a little bit different.
• 15:03
  2012,
• 15:04
  Mitt Romney runs for president.
• 15:05
  Barack Obama running for re-election.
• 15:08
  And the polls,
• 15:09
  as we get closer and closer to that election,
• 15:11
  start feeling like,
• 15:12
  wait a minute,
• 15:14
  Mitt Romney's got a chance to get rid of Barack Obama.
• 15:16
  Obama's not that popular,
• 15:17
  you know,
• 15:17
  right then.
• 15:18
  He's coming off of,
• 15:18
  uh,
• 15:19
  the,
• 15:19
  the,
• 15:19
  the healthcare.gov disaster.
• 15:21
  Uh,
• 15:22
  Obamacare really disliked.
• 15:24
  Romney runs that campaign,
• 15:26
  smokes,
• 15:26
  uh,
• 15:27
  Obama in the first debate.
• 15:29
  And then does terrible in the next two.
• 15:31
  but the outcome of the polls there were
• 15:34
  Republicans were actually favored in that election.
• 15:37
  Uh,
• 15:37
  the polls favored Republicans by 2.8% points,
• 15:40
  so that error
• 15:41
  went to the Republicans.
• 15:42
  Romney looked stronger than he actually was,
• 15:45
  and Obama wound up winning that election.
• 15:49
  We go to 2014.
• 15:51
  Interestingly enough,
• 15:52
  the exact reverse happens,
• 15:53
  2014.
• 15:54
  Uh,
• 15:55
  a 2.8% error
• 15:56
  in favor of Democrats.
• 15:58
  Democrats look better than they are,
• 15:59
  and,
• 16:00
  and 2014 winds up being a really good year,
• 16:02
  a really good midterm
• 16:04
  for
• 16:05
  Republicans,
• 16:06
  and the Democratic,
• 16:07
  the polls looked too good for Democrats.
• 16:09
  This isn't,
• 16:09
  you know,
• 16:09
  remember 2014 is,
• 16:10
  is an era where people are saying,
• 16:12
  oh,
• 16:12
  this is,
• 16:13
  we're not even gonna have a Republican Party anymore.
• 16:15
  Uh,
• 16:16
  Barack Obama's changed all that.
• 16:17
  Maybe Republicans will only be a regional party from now on,
• 16:20
  like,
• 16:20
  uh,
• 16:21
  you know,
• 16:21
  like the Whigs.
• 16:22
  Uh,
• 16:23
  like,
• 16:23
  uh,
• 16:23
  you know,
• 16:24
  the,
• 16:24
  the,
• 16:24
  the racist parties of back in the day,
• 16:26
  you know those stories.
• 16:28
  So that's 2014.
• 16:29
  Now we get into the Trump era,
• 16:31
  and things get,
• 16:32
  start getting crazier and crazier and crazier and crazier.
• 16:35
  Uh,
• 16:35
  2016.
• 16:37
  The second cycle in a row,
• 16:39
  same as 2014,
• 16:40
  where we get a big error
• 16:42
  favoring Democrats.
• 16:44
  The average of that was a 3 point margin,
• 16:47
  the biggest we've seen so far,
• 16:48
  a 3 point margin favoring Democrats in 2016.
• 16:52
  This of course leads to the massive upset at the time
• 16:55
  of Donald Trump taking out Hillary Clinton,
• 16:57
  um,
• 16:58
  in in a,
• 16:58
  in a race that I don't even know if the
• 17:00
  people in the campaign thought they were going to win,
• 17:02
  but they did.
• 17:03
  Uh,
• 17:03
  he won the race fair and square,
• 17:05
  became the president of the United States.
• 17:07
  We go through a couple of years of Trump,
• 17:09
  uh,
• 17:10
  you know,
• 17:10
  there's bumps and bruises,
• 17:11
  some good things,
• 17:12
  some bad things,
• 17:13
  you know,
• 17:13
  it's not necessarily the most popular president in the world,
• 17:15
  obviously,
• 17:17
  you might notice he's a tad divisive.
• 17:19
  Um,
• 17:19
  and,
• 17:20
  uh,
• 17:21
  he,
• 17:21
  we have a 2018,
• 17:24
  um,
• 17:25
  uh,
• 17:26
  midterm.
• 17:26
  That
• 17:27
  midterm does not go well for Republicans.
• 17:29
  Um,
• 17:29
  in fact,
• 17:29
  they,
• 17:29
  uh,
• 17:30
  they get kind of smoked in that election.
• 17:32
  Again,
• 17:32
  that's about an 8 point,
• 17:33
  it was an 8 point,
• 17:34
  I believe,
• 17:35
  margin of a generic ballot vote,
• 17:37
  but the polls again were very good in that 2018
• 17:40
  election.
• 17:40
  In fact,
• 17:41
  the,
• 17:41
  uh,
• 17:41
  polls came close favoring Republicans
• 17:43
  by just 0.5
• 17:46
  points.
• 17:47
  0.5 points favoring Republicans,
• 17:49
  but again,
• 17:49
  I,
• 17:49
  I would just basically say they were good in 2018.
• 17:53
  The result for Republicans was very bad.
• 17:55
  The polls were very good.
• 17:56
  2020,
• 17:57
  Donald Trump runs again.
• 17:58
  This is something that people don't realize
• 18:00
  because Donald Trump won in 2020 2016 and 2024.
• 18:03
  In 2020,
• 18:04
  the polls had the biggest miss of any of these presidential races with Donald Trump,
• 18:08
  a 4.7 point miss
• 18:10
  for,
• 18:11
  uh,
• 18:11
  Democrats.
• 18:11
  The polls favored Democrats by 4.7 points.
• 18:13
  This is the largest polling miss.
• 18:15
  Uh,
• 18:16
  in the,
• 18:16
  uh,
• 18:17
  silver bulletin archive going back to 1998.
• 18:20
  Uh,
• 18:20
  this is,
• 18:21
  you know,
• 18:22
  because
• 18:22
  basically what happened in that one was
• 18:24
  Biden was favored by like 8 points and he only won by 3 or something like that.
• 18:28
  I can't remember the exact,
• 18:29
  uh,
• 18:30
  remember,
• 18:30
  it might have been a little bit smaller than that actually,
• 18:32
  uh,
• 18:32
  the final count,
• 18:33
  but,
• 18:33
  uh,
• 18:34
  that was a big miss and you saw big misses around,
• 18:37
  uh,
• 18:37
  the,
• 18:38
  uh,
• 18:38
  the nation.
• 18:39
  In fact,
• 18:39
  you go back and this is the one Susan Collins was a huge underdog,
• 18:42
  wound up winning.
• 18:43
  There's these big individual polling races,
• 18:46
  race misses,
• 18:46
  but
• 18:47
  overall,
• 18:47
  the average was.
• 18:48
  Big.
• 18:49
  It was a big miss for polls in 2020.
• 18:52
  Now,
• 18:52
  each time this happens,
• 18:54
  they're trying to correct for these errors.
• 18:56
  And you'd think after they missed in 2016,
• 18:59
  there was talk about how well we didn't correctly adjust for education levels,
• 19:02
  we didn't,
• 19:02
  you know,
• 19:03
  blah,
• 19:03
  blah,
• 19:03
  blah blah,
• 19:03
  we missed a lot of the,
• 19:04
  the,
• 19:04
  the shy Trump voters.
• 19:06
  OK,
• 19:06
  2020 happens,
• 19:07
  OK,
• 19:07
  we'll do much better.
• 19:08
  They actually do worse.
• 19:09
  They actually do worse in 2020 than they did in 2016.
• 19:13
  2022 happens,
• 19:14
  a midterm.
• 19:15
  This is Biden's first midterm.
• 19:17
  Polling showing Republicans with a slight lead,
• 19:19
  but not overwhelming.
• 19:20
  There's rumors of a red wave.
• 19:22
  The polls do very well.
• 19:23
  Again,
• 19:23
  they only missed by less than a point,
• 19:25
  0.8 points.
• 19:26
  Uh,
• 19:26
  they favored Democrats,
• 19:28
  uh,
• 19:28
  in that by just 0.8 points.
• 19:30
  Donald Trump runs again in 2024.
• 19:33
  Once again,
• 19:34
  you think,
• 19:34
  well,
• 19:35
  these guys will correct this this time,
• 19:37
  right?
• 19:37
  They do better than 2020,
• 19:38
  I'll give them credit for that.
• 19:39
  But again,
• 19:40
  another polling error,
• 19:41
  another polling error that favors Democrats this time by 2.9 points,
• 19:45
  which brings us,
• 19:46
  uh,
• 19:46
  to today.
• 19:46
  So.
• 19:47
  Let me show you the history.
• 19:48
  This is all the polls,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:50
  from 2000 all the way up to today,
• 19:53
  and the range of polling errors.
• 19:55
  This is what we're looking at.
• 19:56
  Now,
• 19:57
  you could in theory have a bigger polling error than either of those,
• 19:59
  but,
• 20:00
  you know,
• 20:00
  to expect that is to,
• 20:01
  uh,
• 20:02
  to expect something we haven't seen
• 20:04
  in 25 years.
• 20:05
  Here's what we have seen in 25 years.
• 20:07
  Uh,
• 20:07
  a 7.5 point spread
• 20:10
  between polling errors.
• 20:11
  The biggest polling error favoring Democrats was a 4.7 point miss in 2020.
• 20:15
  And a 2.8% miss in 2012 was the largest facing Republicans.
• 20:20
  So that is kind of what you might expect as a potential
• 20:25
  swing here.
• 20:25
  A 4.7 points being the high end,
• 20:28
  and a 2.8 points
• 20:29
  for the Republicans on that high end.
• 20:33
  Now,
• 20:33
  when you look back at all this data,
• 20:35
  what is it telling us?
• 20:37
  What's the story here?
• 20:40
  The story is that
• 20:41
  typically,
• 20:43
  more often than not,
• 20:45
  polling errors do exist.
• 20:47
  And they're significant,
• 20:50
  and they favor Democrats.
• 20:51
  That's not something you're imagining
• 20:54
  if that's the way you feel.
• 20:55
  Here's the actual data going back to 2000.
• 20:58
  46% of these,
• 21:01
  um,
• 21:01
  polling errors
• 21:02
  favored Democrats,
• 21:04
  only 15% favored Republicans.
• 21:07
  About 39%
• 21:09
  were about right.
• 21:10
  So in 13 cycles,
• 21:11
  6 of them favored Democrats,
• 21:13
  5 of them were about right,
• 21:14
  and only 2 of them favored Republicans.
• 21:17
  You see that split.
• 21:18
  Now,
• 21:18
  that includes
• 21:20
  presidential years.
• 21:21
  When you take out the presidential years and only look at the midterms,
• 21:24
  this is what the numbers look like,
• 21:25
  and they're gonna be,
• 21:26
  uh,
• 21:26
  you know,
• 21:27
  maybe shocking to some people.
• 21:28
  33% favored Democrats,
• 21:31
  67% were about right,
• 21:33
  0%
• 21:35
  favored Republicans.
• 21:36
  So we have,
• 21:37
  since 2000 have had not had one significant
• 21:39
  polling miss that favored Republicans in the midterms.
• 21:42
  That's important to note.
• 21:44
  The other important note here is,
• 21:45
  most of the time in midterms,
• 21:47
  the polls have been good.
• 21:52
  The idea that this is a polling this favoring Republicans,
• 21:56
  very unlikely.
• 21:57
  It's a small sample size,
• 21:58
  but it's,
• 21:59
  it's unlikely as we can come up with in the data.
• 22:02
  However,
• 22:02
  the most likely outcome in a midterm election over this,
• 22:05
  over this time period
• 22:07
  has been
• 22:08
  that
• 22:09
  the polls are just pretty good.
• 22:12
  So
• 22:14
  Looking at this and seeing what these polls mean,
• 22:17
  where do we stand right now?
• 22:19
  I think it's,
• 22:19
  you know,
• 22:19
  we're going through that,
• 22:20
  uh,
• 22:21
  that,
• 22:21
  that archive from the silver bulletin.
• 22:23
  Let's look at their generic ballot code.
• 22:24
  So you had a couple of polls that had it at 11 points earlier,
• 22:27
  but what's the actual average here?
• 22:29
  The average right now
• 22:30
  is about 9.2 points.
• 22:33
  Democrats at 50.5%,
• 22:35
  Republicans at 41.3%,
• 22:37
  really on the fringes of the margins of error,
• 22:40
  you can see
• 22:41
  in this particular
• 22:42
  graphic.
• 22:43
  50.5 to 41.3%,
• 22:45
  so a 9.2% advantage for
• 22:51
  Democrats.
• 22:52
  How would that work
• 22:53
  with a polling error?
• 22:55
  This is how important this stuff is.
• 22:57
  Cause the polling error here
• 22:58
  can be the entire game,
• 23:00
  can be the entire ball game
• 23:01
  when it comes to control.
• 23:02
  OK.
• 23:03
  This is,
• 23:03
  uh,
• 23:04
  the,
• 23:04
  what
• 23:05
  the likely outcome would be
• 23:07
  if we have,
• 23:08
  um,
• 23:09
  a generic ballot falling in different ranges.
• 23:11
  So,
• 23:11
  if you look at this chart,
• 23:13
  between 9 and 10 points,
• 23:14
  which is where we are.
• 23:16
  The Democrats have a,
• 23:18
  if that is the real number in real life,
• 23:20
  when it comes to Senate seats,
• 23:21
  the Democrats have a 98% chance of winning the Senate.
• 23:24
  So if this polling is right,
• 23:25
  there's no polling error,
• 23:27
  the Democrats have a 98% chance
• 23:29
  of winning the Senate according to this data.
• 23:32
  They would average about 54 seats.
• 23:34
  So you are talking.
• 23:37
  Blue wave territory for sure.
• 23:38
  Does this count as blue tsunami?
• 23:40
  I mean,
• 23:41
  it's basically 2018.
• 23:43
  So you would say it,
• 23:44
  it is a very bad outcome for Republicans.
• 23:47
  Maybe not blue tsunami territory and maybe not
• 23:50
  the most catastrophic outcome we've ever seen,
• 23:52
  but very bad.
• 23:52
  Maybe not as bad as 2006.
• 23:54
  If you happen to have a rep uh,
• 23:56
  uh,
• 23:57
  uh,
• 23:57
  a polling error that favors Republicans,
• 23:59
  so
• 24:00
  the polls are better for Republicans
• 24:02
  than they wind up being.
• 24:04
  And we see movement.
• 24:05
  The biggest way that could go is,
• 24:07
  uh,
• 24:08
  through history would be a 2.8%
• 24:10
  polling error that would bring that up to
• 24:12
  about 12 points,
• 24:14
  about where those first couple of polls were that we talked about today.
• 24:17
  If that does happen,
• 24:19
  you're looking at a basically 100% chance,
• 24:21
  bring up that last graphic,
• 24:22
  100% chance.
• 24:23
  Um,
• 24:23
  uh,
• 24:24
  for the Republicans to lose the Senate
• 24:26
  and about 55 seats,
• 24:28
  which is,
• 24:28
  you know,
• 24:28
  55,
• 24:29
  56 is basically the maximum
• 24:31
  you can see,
• 24:32
  uh,
• 24:32
  with any realistic,
• 24:33
  um,
• 24:34
  possibility.
• 24:35
  Uh,
• 24:35
  now,
• 24:36
  again,
• 24:36
  we haven't seen any midterm polling
• 24:38
  misses toward Republicans,
• 24:39
  so
• 24:40
  this is unlikely,
• 24:41
  but this is the ranges of outcomes.
• 24:43
  If you go down the other way though,
• 24:45
  this is the one that everyone's talking about.
• 24:46
  This is what you're probably thinking right now.
• 24:47
  Wait a minute.
• 24:48
  What about if Democrats
• 24:50
  are the,
• 24:51
  uh,
• 24:51
  the
• 24:52
  beneficiary
• 24:53
  of a polling error?
• 24:55
  The average polling error or maybe the maximum.
• 24:57
  Let's do the maximum.
• 24:59
  If we get the polling error,
• 25:00
  the biggest one that we've seen,
• 25:01
  that was the 2020 election,
• 25:04
  a 4.7 point polling miss,
• 25:06
  that would bring the Republicans from this Democrat 9 to 10.
• 25:10
  To the Democrat plus 4 to 5 area.
• 25:13
  If they get into that area,
• 25:14
  around 4.5 points,
• 25:16
  the Republicans are now favored
• 25:18
  in the Senate.
• 25:20
  2 to 1 favorites in the Senate,
• 25:21
  a 60,
• 25:22
  what is it?
• 25:22
  61,
• 25:23
  62%.
• 25:24
  Uh,
• 25:24
  favorite in the Senate.
• 25:26
  Likely that we're looking at there a 50/50 Senate,
• 25:29
  where you have,
• 25:30
  uh,
• 25:30
  JD Vance breaking that tie.
• 25:32
  So if you look at it this way,
• 25:34
  best case scenario,
• 25:36
  the Republicans are the favorite in the Senate.
• 25:38
  They hold the Senate with 50 or 51 seats,
• 25:41
  um,
• 25:42
  and that's if the polls are in that,
• 25:44
  in that sort of error
• 25:45
  that favors,
• 25:46
  uh,
• 25:46
  that has been favoring Democrats through the polling season,
• 25:49
  and we see better results for Republicans.
• 25:51
  If you go the opposite way,
• 25:52
  obviously it gets massively catastrophic.
• 25:54
  So the question is,
• 25:55
  you know,
• 25:55
  does the poll,
• 25:56
  should we be sitting here to,
• 25:57
  you know,
• 25:58
  like,
• 25:58
  oh gosh,
• 25:59
  the polling error will save us.
• 26:01
  I mean,
• 26:02
  the question,
• 26:02
  the answer to that is,
• 26:03
  is a,
• 26:03
  is a big fat maybe.
• 26:05
  You know,
• 26:05
  there's about 1 out of 3 chance that the polling error is telling
• 26:10
  you the Democrats are going to do better than they actually are.
• 26:13
  In midterms.
• 26:15
  If you look at the data from,
• 26:16
  uh,
• 26:17
  from all elections,
• 26:18
  that number's a little bit higher.
• 26:19
  It's about 1 in 2.
• 26:21
  So somewhere between 1 and 2 and 1 and 3 chance
• 26:24
  that a polling error will make
• 26:26
  the,
• 26:27
  uh,
• 26:27
  the situation improve for Republicans from the data that you're seeing here.
• 26:31
  If that does happen,
• 26:33
  you're looking at a much better chance,
• 26:35
  in fact,
• 26:35
  all the way up to maybe Republicans are 2 to 1 favorites
• 26:38
  in the Senate.
• 26:39
  Massive range there,
• 26:41
  but we should see and should understand what we're looking at and what we are coming,
• 26:45
  the point that we're coming from.
• 26:47
  Which is a point of,
• 26:48
  look,
• 26:49
  Democrats are favorite here.
• 26:50
  They are heavy favorites to win in the House.
• 26:52
  They are favorites to win in the Senate.
• 26:54
  They are favorites in a lot of these close races.
• 26:56
  That does not mean
• 26:58
  that the die is cast.
• 26:59
  And it does not mean if you are a
• 27:01
  person who wants Republicans and conservatives to win,
• 27:03
  it does not mean you should just give up and not go to the polls.
• 27:06
  Uh,
• 27:06
  in fact,
• 27:07
  you're needed at the polls probably more than ever,
• 27:09
  because if you don't go to the polls,
• 27:11
  these blue wave,
• 27:12
  blue tsunami situations are realistic possibilities.
• 27:15
  This is not just some crazy media concoction.
• 27:19
  This is a thing that could actually happen,
• 27:22
  and
• 27:22
  honestly,
• 27:23
  some of the data indicates it's likely to happen.
• 27:27
  So if you want that to not occur,
• 27:30
  the things that you could be doing to help
• 27:33
  in a situation like this are really,
• 27:35
  really important.
• 27:36
  Be active,
• 27:38
  try to convince people to change their minds if that's up,
• 27:40
  if that's something that you want.
• 27:41
  If you're someone on the,
• 27:42
  on the left and you're like,
• 27:43
  I love this,
• 27:44
  you know,
• 27:44
  I mean,
• 27:44
  look,
• 27:45
  you're at a situation,
• 27:46
  I,
• 27:46
  you know,
• 27:46
  I don't like your policies all that much,
• 27:48
  so.
• 27:49
  maybe you could stay home.
• 27:50
  No,
• 27:50
  I'm not.
• 27:51
  You do what you wanna do.
• 27:52
  My point here though is when it comes to the elections,
• 27:54
  being active is always a good idea.
• 27:56
  When it comes to prediction markets,
• 27:57
  it's about guarding these positions.
• 28:00
  You don't want to be in a position
• 28:01
  where you blow off the polls and say,
• 28:03
  well,
• 28:03
  I've got a guy who's in the Republicans,
• 28:05
  uh,
• 28:05
  yeah,
• 28:05
  it's,
• 28:06
  it's Kansas,
• 28:06
  what are the chances of me losing?
• 28:08
  Well,
• 28:09
  the chances of you losing,
• 28:10
  are there,
• 28:10
  they're real.
• 28:12
  So,
• 28:12
  if you,
• 28:12
  you should shield yourself from some of those,
• 28:15
  watch the size of those positions.
• 28:17
  If you've been really aggressive in a state that's more,
• 28:20
  making you more nervous,
• 28:22
  don't just deny the new data,
• 28:24
  adjust,
• 28:25
  right?
• 28:26
  Maybe trim some of that position.
• 28:27
  I've talked to you about what I did on Monday's show,
• 28:30
  trimming about 5 or 6 positions
• 28:33
  that I thought were in a risky spot,
• 28:34
  and taking that money and allocating it to places I feel better about.
• 28:38
  Yeah,
• 28:39
  sure,
• 28:39
  I took a little bit of a short-term loss there.
• 28:41
  I wanna make it up in another place where I can,
• 28:43
  I'm,
• 28:43
  I'm much more confident.
• 28:45
  If you can do that and you can kinda keep your,
• 28:46
  your balance,
• 28:47
  uh,
• 28:47
  your portfolio balanced to a place where you understand
• 28:50
  that you are not just saying,
• 28:52
  I know this is going to happen,
• 28:54
  but you're saying,
• 28:54
  I think this range is gonna happen.
• 28:56
  I wanna be safe in this entire range.
• 28:59
  When you think that way,
• 29:00
  you're much more likely
• 29:01
  to have consistent,
• 29:03
  uh,
• 29:03
  positive outcomes
• 29:04
  when it comes to these elections.
• 29:05
  Look,
• 29:06
  all this stuff is up at predictableShow.com.
• 29:07
  I want you to be
• 29:08
  Able to see it.
• 29:08
  I want you to be able to use these tools.
• 29:10
  Uh,
• 29:10
  the predictable mid-term consensus is up there.
• 29:12
  We've got the Republican freakout Index.
• 29:14
  I'll put up some of this data as well at some point here
• 29:16
  in the coming days.
• 29:17
  I want you to have all the tools that I have,
• 29:19
  uh,
• 29:19
  to trade these markets,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:21
  and we've done pretty well over the primaries.
• 29:23
  We've done pretty well in history.
• 29:25
  So,
• 29:25
  you know,
• 29:26
  we hope we continue that here in a couple of weeks.
• 29:29
  OK,
• 29:29
  we're gonna take a break,
• 29:30
  come back on the other side,
• 29:31
  cause I just said,
• 29:32
  hey,
• 29:32
  polls,
• 29:33
  you know,
• 29:33
  you
• 29:33
  can't completely dismiss them.
• 29:34
  You need to know what they are and you need to understand what they mean.
• 29:37
  Sometimes you can completely dismiss them.
• 29:39
  We'll tell you a story about that next.
• 29:56
  Look,
• 29:57
  if you're looking for hope,
• 29:57
  uh,
• 29:58
  on the Republican side,
• 29:59
  you know,
• 30:00
  maybe all the polls are fake.
• 30:01
  Maybe they're all completely made up from scratch.
• 30:05
  Now,
• 30:05
  you might say that sounds ridiculous,
• 30:07
  um,
• 30:07
  but
• 30:08
  first of all,
• 30:08
  you're probably not saying that.
• 30:09
  But secondly,
• 30:10
  what if,
• 30:11
  uh,
• 30:11
  it kind of sounds ridiculous,
• 30:12
  right?
• 30:13
  They're,
• 30:13
  they're at least calling people and asking them the questions,
• 30:15
  right?
• 30:15
  Well,
• 30:15
  maybe not,
• 30:16
  at least in some cases,
• 30:17
  uh,
• 30:17
  fake polling firm duped media in social experiment.
• 30:21
  Now,
• 30:21
  this is interesting,
• 30:22
  they went through,
• 30:23
  uh,
• 30:23
  this is a place called Wedgewood Polls.
• 30:26
  And Wedgwood polls,
• 30:27
  I'd seen them.
• 30:27
  I'd never heard of them before.
• 30:29
  Um,
• 30:29
  I had seen them pop up in polls.
• 30:31
  We probably mentioned one or two other polls.
• 30:32
  I don't remember if we did as we were running through a
• 30:34
  list of polls that were on the New York Times or whatever.
• 30:36
  Um,
• 30:37
  I had seen them before a couple of times,
• 30:38
  I be like,
• 30:38
  that's a weird result and kind of just,
• 30:40
  you know,
• 30:40
  just,
• 30:40
  you don't know.
• 30:41
  I,
• 30:41
  I mean,
• 30:42
  I'm,
• 30:42
  I'm not calling these people.
• 30:43
  I'm not doing this,
• 30:43
  this,
• 30:44
  this,
• 30:45
  uh,
• 30:45
  backend.
• 30:45
  You,
• 30:46
  you'd think there's some backend research as to whether these polls are real or not.
• 30:50
  Um,
• 30:51
  these people,
• 30:52
  uh,
• 30:52
  in organizations,
• 30:53
  50+1 is one of them.
• 30:55
  Um,
• 30:56
  uh,
• 30:56
  says that they did do some backup.
• 30:58
  They did do some checking.
• 31:00
  Uh,
• 31:00
  they found that the people running them
• 31:02
  had experience in the polling industry previously,
• 31:05
  and,
• 31:05
  uh,
• 31:06
  you know,
• 31:06
  did the basic checks and look,
• 31:08
  read their methodology statement and all of that and,
• 31:10
  and said,
• 31:10
  OK,
• 31:10
  it looks like they're good enough to include in our polling averages.
• 31:13
  To their credit,
• 31:14
  they kept looking at this to try to figure out,
• 31:16
  wait a minute,
• 31:16
  this doesn't seem right,
• 31:17
  and eventually caught Wedgwood,
• 31:19
  um,
• 31:20
  manufacturing data.
• 31:21
  Um,
• 31:22
  and it's a long story about how they did it with like identification numbers and,
• 31:26
  um,
• 31:26
  you know,
• 31:27
  internal numbers of the polling place that actually did the supposed calls.
• 31:31
  They could tell that they were manufactured numbers.
• 31:33
  I honestly,
• 31:34
  it was a pretty good detective project by them,
• 31:36
  but they did eventually figure this out.
• 31:38
  And,
• 31:39
  uh,
• 31:39
  and once they did,
• 31:40
  they
• 31:41
  called them and said,
• 31:41
  hey,
• 31:41
  wait a minute,
• 31:42
  you're gonna give us some comment on this?
• 31:43
  I,
• 31:43
  of course,
• 31:43
  we're about to do a story about how you're fake.
• 31:45
  And then Wedgwood did not reply.
• 31:48
  I think they did reply with FU,
• 31:51
  which I think is actually real,
• 31:53
  um,
• 31:53
  but
• 31:54
  they,
• 31:54
  uh,
• 31:54
  replied with this message on social media.
• 31:57
  They say Wedgwood polling,
• 31:58
  an experimental project to determine the vulnerabilities,
• 32:00
  lack of oversight,
• 32:01
  and overall low barrier to entry in the modern polling industry,
• 32:05
  makes this public statement.
• 32:06
  We,
• 32:06
  uh,
• 32:07
  basically,
• 32:07
  they basically said,
• 32:08
  look,
• 32:08
  we just.
• 32:09
  We had no history,
• 32:10
  we had no credentials,
• 32:12
  we had no data behind the vast majority of our releases,
• 32:15
  and yet the New York Times and 50+1 and VoteHub
• 32:18
  all repeatedly treated us as a legitimate polling source.
• 32:21
  So they're basically saying like,
• 32:22
  we did this on purpose to show
• 32:24
  how bad
• 32:25
  the information system is.
• 32:27
  Uh,
• 32:27
  you know,
• 32:27
  part of me likes those types of things,
• 32:29
  honestly,
• 32:29
  like,
• 32:29
  I like when people do that and they screw with the media.
• 32:33
  But I mean,
• 32:33
  also,
• 32:33
  I don't really like it that much,
• 32:35
  you know,
• 32:35
  it's like you,
• 32:36
  it's,
• 32:37
  it's,
• 32:37
  uh.
• 32:39
  Our information diet is crappy enough as it is.
• 32:42
  I will say,
• 32:42
  one of the,
• 32:43
  the secrets of this game,
• 32:44
  if you're in here and you're,
• 32:45
  you're like,
• 32:46
  I,
• 32:46
  you know,
• 32:46
  I love prediction markets.
• 32:47
  I am,
• 32:47
  you know,
• 32:48
  I,
• 32:48
  I wanna try to figure this stuff out.
• 32:50
  One of the ways you do this
• 32:52
  is by trying to suss through bad data,
• 32:55
  right?
• 32:55
  Like looking at a report and trying to understand
• 32:59
  which parts are good and which parts are bad,
• 33:01
  which polls are good,
• 33:01
  which polls are bad,
• 33:02
  which data is good,
• 33:03
  which data is bad.
• 33:04
  That's the whole game.
• 33:05
  It's why prediction markets typically outperform polls
• 33:09
  because they are taking into account,
• 33:10
  wait a minute,
• 33:11
  I don't believe that.
• 33:12
  I don't believe that internal poll that shows
• 33:15
  the Democrat up by 19 points in Alabama.
• 33:18
  I don't buy it.
• 33:19
  You know,
• 33:19
  if you just believe polls straight,
• 33:21
  you wind up with information that's terrible,
• 33:22
  and in this case,
• 33:23
  really,
• 33:23
  really bad.
• 33:24
  Now,
• 33:24
  Democrats are really pissed off about this.
• 33:26
  And it's funny because I remember seeing Wedgwood in the,
• 33:28
  in these polling results and being like,
• 33:29
  gosh.
• 33:30
  I remember getting pissed at them because
• 33:32
  I was like,
• 33:32
  God,
• 33:33
  that polls is against my prediction market position,
• 33:35
  right?
• 33:35
  Like I was like,
• 33:36
  oh crap,
• 33:36
  this is screwing my,
• 33:37
  my,
• 33:37
  uh,
• 33:38
  portfolio up a little bit.
• 33:39
  Um.
• 33:40
  But I don't remember them being favoring Republicans over and over and over again.
• 33:44
  I guess,
• 33:45
  uh,
• 33:45
  that's at least the accusation right now.
• 33:47
  Democrats furious after a pollster boosting far-left candidates,
• 33:50
  admits
• 33:50
  fabricating surveys.
• 33:53
  One of the candidates who was really pissed
• 33:54
  off with this is someone named Mallory McMorrow.
• 33:57
  You might not remember that name because she,
• 33:58
  she dropped out.
• 34:00
  She was the.
• 34:00
  If you remember El Sayed on one side,
• 34:02
  on the left,
• 34:03
  on my left,
• 34:04
  um,
• 34:05
  and,
• 34:05
  uh,
• 34:05
  Haley Stevens as the,
• 34:06
  uh,
• 34:07
  you know,
• 34:07
  centrist candidate,
• 34:08
  I'm certainly not going to say on the right
• 34:10
  when we're talking about this crew.
• 34:11
  Mallory McMorrow was the one in the middle.
• 34:13
  And she was kind of the one that at,
• 34:14
  at the beginning was thought to be favored because,
• 34:17
  you know,
• 34:17
  I'll say it's it's too extreme on one side and Stevens is too extreme on the other.
• 34:21
  Maybe we'll pick the middle one.
• 34:22
  Now,
• 34:22
  I don't know when that actually ever works.
• 34:23
  Frankly,
• 34:24
  it doesn't seem to work all that often,
• 34:25
  but
• 34:25
  whatever.
• 34:26
  She tried it and failed.
• 34:27
  Um,
• 34:27
  she tweeted this out,
• 34:29
  uh,
• 34:29
  after this news came out from the,
• 34:31
  about the Wedgwood poll,
• 34:32
  which did poll her race.
• 34:34
  She says that one of the candidates featured in these polls,
• 34:36
  the infamous one in late June that showed me plummeting into single digits,
• 34:39
  which was at odds with our internal polling.
• 34:42
  Here's the impact of your,
• 34:43
  your experiment.
• 34:44
  Donations dried up.
• 34:46
  Volunteers were devastated,
• 34:47
  pleading for guidance on what to do.
• 34:49
  Reporters hounded me with calls to drop out.
• 34:52
  Sure,
• 34:52
  a point was proven,
• 34:53
  polling is broken,
• 34:54
  but tens of thousands of people poured their hearts,
• 34:56
  time and energy,
• 34:57
  and hard-earned money into.
• 34:58
  Something they believed in for a year and a half
• 35:00
  and it was treated like a game.
• 35:02
  Our volunteers,
• 35:03
  uh,
• 35:03
  gave it their all,
• 35:03
  and then some,
• 35:04
  I feel like we let so many of them down.
• 35:06
  She goes on to,
• 35:07
  you know,
• 35:07
  shill for El Sayed and then say,
• 35:09
  if this teaches us anything,
• 35:10
  don't get complacent and don't trust the polls.
• 35:12
  And I think that's,
• 35:13
  look,
• 35:14
  always the right advice.
• 35:15
  I was,
• 35:16
  I was confused by this.
• 35:17
  People were like,
• 35:17
  oh gosh,
• 35:17
  I want my candidate to win.
• 35:18
  I wanna vote for the winner.
• 35:19
  Who cares if you vote for the winner or not?
• 35:21
  Vote for who you think is good,
• 35:22
  who you think is right.
• 35:25
  if the polls show your person's behind,
• 35:27
  even more reason for you to go vote,
• 35:28
  right?
• 35:29
  Because you want them to win.
• 35:30
  Uh,
• 35:30
  you shouldn't be downtrodden by the polls.
• 35:33
  The,
• 35:33
  the answer is always to go out there and do a little bit more if it's possible for you.
• 35:37
  Um,
• 35:38
  if you care about the,
• 35:38
  these,
• 35:39
  these races,
• 35:39
  do something about it.
• 35:41
  Um,
• 35:41
  all that being said,
• 35:42
  uh,
• 35:43
  the fact is,
• 35:44
  we are in a weird environment,
• 35:45
  and I,
• 35:45
  I've said this on Twitter and I'll say it again here.
• 35:48
  Maybe the answer here
• 35:49
  is you don't include them in your polling
• 35:51
  averages until you understand they are legitimate.
• 35:53
  Don't just include them and then try to disprove their legitimacy.
• 35:57
  Do the opposite.
• 35:58
  Find out they're legitimate first.
• 35:59
  If they're new to the game
• 36:00
  and not an established player.
• 36:02
  Have a vetting period.
• 36:04
  Wait until you see what the heck they're
• 36:05
  doing before you include them in these averages,
• 36:07
  that seems to be the most simple step.
• 36:24
  Uh,
• 36:24
  yes,
• 36:24
  there's always people at the storming the gates of the castle,
• 36:27
  trying to take down prediction markets.
• 36:29
  That is,
• 36:29
  uh,
• 36:29
  kind of the central function of many government officials these days,
• 36:33
  because they got nothing better to do.
• 36:34
  Certainly no problems going on in the country right now.
• 36:36
  Let's make sure we go after prediction markets.
• 36:39
  Um,
• 36:39
  a new lawsuit came out,
• 36:40
  uh,
• 36:41
  in Utah.
• 36:41
  Utah sues Calsci,
• 36:43
  seeking up to $60 million in profit made off of
• 36:46
  Utahns.
• 36:48
  It's a fun word to say,
• 36:49
  Utahns.
• 36:51
  Look.
• 36:54
  Spencer Cox is the governor there.
• 36:56
  Um,
• 36:57
  I had him on the show before.
• 36:58
  Uh,
• 36:59
  the Attorney general's name is Derek Brown.
• 37:02
  I don't know him.
• 37:02
  I don't,
• 37:03
  I mean probably has been on,
• 37:04
  was on the radio show with us as well back in the day.
• 37:06
  I have nothing,
• 37:07
  I don't combat this is like the,
• 37:08
  the person who's like a typically attacking a Republican politician.
• 37:11
  Like I,
• 37:12
  you know,
• 37:12
  I agree with him on most topics.
• 37:15
  This is a pretty weak one,
• 37:16
  a pretty weak set of arguments,
• 37:17
  and frankly,
• 37:18
  it doesn't feel like they put all that much effort into these arguments,
• 37:21
  um,
• 37:22
  you know,
• 37:22
  except to try to make up little catchy lines.
• 37:24
  I mean,
• 37:24
  let me,
• 37:24
  uh,
• 37:25
  I'll give you an example.
• 37:27
  These companies,
• 37:28
  they're not your friends,
• 37:30
  but the,
• 37:30
  just so you know,
• 37:31
  the government is.
• 37:32
  The,
• 37:32
  the government is your friend.
• 37:34
  That's what us conservatives believe today.
• 37:37
  Uh,
• 37:37
  these companies,
• 37:38
  they're not your friends,
• 37:39
  they're not helping you invest,
• 37:40
  they're not providing you with insights or opportunity.
• 37:43
  Frankly,
• 37:44
  they are engineered to do one thing and one thing alone.
• 37:48
  Empty your wallet,
• 37:50
  said Elizabeth Warren.
• 37:52
  I'm sorry,
• 37:52
  no,
• 37:52
  uh,
• 37:52
  uh,
• 37:52
  the,
• 37:53
  uh,
• 37:53
  AG from Utah.
• 37:54
  Um,
• 37:55
  look.
• 37:57
  Cal,
• 37:58
  this,
• 37:58
  let me explain something to you.
• 38:00
  Calhi,
• 38:01
  this is how they make money,
• 38:02
  OK?
• 38:02
  Here,
• 38:02
  here you go.
• 38:02
  You ready for it?
• 38:04
  You put in a trade and they take a fee off of that trade.
• 38:07
  If they were specifically designed to empty your wallet,
• 38:10
  what they might do,
• 38:11
  let's just give a situation is
• 38:13
  to try to get people to put a wager on,
• 38:15
  on some position,
• 38:17
  and then when they lose,
• 38:18
  uh,
• 38:18
  that,
• 38:19
  uh,
• 38:19
  the,
• 38:19
  that wager,
• 38:20
  they take all the money.
• 38:21
  That's a.
• 38:22
  To try to get people to empty their pockets.
• 38:23
  Now,
• 38:24
  I don't have any negative feelings about those types of things.
• 38:26
  I,
• 38:27
  as a conservative,
• 38:28
  as a,
• 38:28
  a person who believes in personal
• 38:31
  responsibility,
• 38:32
  I
• 38:33
  believe
• 38:34
  that
• 38:35
  it is up to you to decide where to spend your money.
• 38:37
  You know,
• 38:37
  I went to a movie the other night.
• 38:38
  You know what they did?
• 38:39
  They took my money.
• 38:40
  They were specifically designed to empty my wallet.
• 38:44
  But I made that decision because it entertained me for a while.
• 38:47
  So if you wanna make wagers on sports or whatever else,
• 38:50
  that is up to you.
• 38:51
  You're a big boy,
• 38:53
  you're a big girl,
• 38:54
  you're an adult.
• 38:56
  I,
• 38:57
  as someone who believes in personal responsibility,
• 39:00
  think that that's kind of like really obvious,
• 39:03
  but I guess the government's supposed to protect us from all these things.
• 39:06
  Now,
• 39:06
  OK,
• 39:07
  you wanna say that.
• 39:08
  If you are a company specifically designed to empty somebody's wallet,
• 39:12
  the way you would not do that is to facilitate
• 39:14
  trades and take a small percentage in a fee.
• 39:17
  That's obviously moronic.
• 39:19
  Then we would all be saying,
• 39:20
  well,
• 39:20
  PayPal,
• 39:21
  PayPal is specifically designed to empty your wallet.
• 39:24
  Well,
• 39:24
  they're taking a small fee on transactions,
• 39:26
  yeah.
• 39:27
  It's just an idiotic argument.
• 39:29
  And,
• 39:30
  and,
• 39:30
  you know,
• 39:30
  frankly,
• 39:31
  the,
• 39:31
  I,
• 39:31
  I,
• 39:31
  I have to imagine these guys know better,
• 39:33
  but whatever.
• 39:34
  You know,
• 39:34
  this is,
• 39:34
  it's the culture in Utah,
• 39:36
  they believe the laws in Utah are on their side,
• 39:38
  so they're making these arguments with their cute little,
• 39:40
  uh,
• 39:41
  uh,
• 39:42
  Calshi bet today that Utah would not enforce its gambling laws.
• 39:46
  Well,
• 39:46
  Calci's lost their bet.
• 39:48
  OK,
• 39:48
  I got the tough guy,
• 39:49
  uh,
• 39:50
  you know,
• 39:50
  bumper sticker thing.
• 39:51
  That's,
• 39:51
  that's really funny.
• 39:53
  But it is a bit idiotic,
• 39:54
  frankly.
• 39:55
  Uh,
• 39:55
  they are
• 39:56
  in the lawsuit trying to get $330 to
• 39:57
  $60 million acting like there's some thing that happened
• 40:00
  where people were victimized by trading with other people,
• 40:04
  largely,
• 40:05
  uh,
• 40:05
  and,
• 40:05
  and a fee being taken off of that transaction.
• 40:07
  Now,
• 40:08
  look,
• 40:08
  that number matches up with what we believe the fees were charged to people in Utah.
• 40:13
  So,
• 40:13
  we know
• 40:14
  what they're saying here.
• 40:15
  They're saying,
• 40:16
  well,
• 40:16
  what we have evidence of,
• 40:17
  we believe are fees paid by people in Utah in these transactions.
• 40:22
  They know the money wasn't lost to,
• 40:25
  uh,
• 40:25
  to Calci.
• 40:26
  The money was lost to,
• 40:27
  uh,
• 40:28
  other people.
• 40:28
  We know that because that number is right around what we'd expected for fees.
• 40:32
  They have a,
• 40:32
  uh,
• 40:33
  convoluted idea here,
• 40:34
  and this is in the lawsuit,
• 40:35
  this diagram
• 40:37
  of,
• 40:37
  of companies,
• 40:38
  which is,
• 40:39
  this is a known thing where CalSci,
• 40:41
  uh,
• 40:41
  other markets do this as well,
• 40:43
  where they have,
• 40:43
  will have market makers putting shares available at both,
• 40:46
  on both sides of trades,
• 40:47
  so there's liquidity in markets,
• 40:49
  right?
• 40:50
  This is something,
• 40:51
  especially in smaller markets where you kind of need this,
• 40:53
  where there's no,
• 40:53
  there's maybe nobody trading them.
• 40:55
  They need to get trades going,
• 40:56
  so they put,
• 40:57
  uh,
• 40:57
  shares available in markets.
• 40:59
  These companies,
• 40:59
  these clearing houses,
• 41:00
  the platform operator,
• 41:01
  market maker,
• 41:01
  holding companies,
• 41:02
  all this stuff
• 41:03
  is something that's known.
• 41:04
  And by the way,
• 41:05
  all evidence that we have up until now at least,
• 41:07
  is that
• 41:09
  Calci loses money doing this.
• 41:11
  Calci doesn't empty your wallet.
• 41:12
  They lose money doing this.
• 41:14
  They,
• 41:14
  there's rumors of them losing millions of dollars doing this.
• 41:18
  And for them,
• 41:18
  it kind of might make sense,
• 41:19
  right?
• 41:19
  They want people to get involved in these markets,
• 41:21
  so they don't mind losing some money on these trades,
• 41:23
  but they lose money doing this,
• 41:25
  at least of all the evidence we have now,
• 41:27
  maybe something will turn up later on.
• 41:28
  We will see on that.
• 41:30
  Um.
• 41:31
  That's what they're trying to do,
• 41:32
  but we know there's a disingenuous tie here,
• 41:35
  because the money that they're looking for
• 41:37
  is the amount of money that is supposedly
• 41:40
  um tied to the amounts of fees being charged.
• 41:43
  Look,
• 41:43
  I don't know.
• 41:44
  Look,
• 41:44
  you answer me this question.
• 41:45
  Maybe I'm wrong on this.
• 41:46
  Has the government charged any fees for anything?
• 41:49
  You ever been charged a fee by the government?
• 41:51
  Are they your friends?
• 41:54
  Are they specifically designed to empty your wallet?
• 41:57
  I'll give you a hint,
• 41:58
  yeah,
• 41:58
  kinda,
• 41:58
  but still,
• 41:59
  they don't seem to hold any blame for themselves on these things.
• 42:02
  They're charging you fees for transactions all the time.
• 42:05
  In fact,
• 42:05
  they're fees,
• 42:06
  transactions I don't even wanna have
• 42:08
  anything to do with.
• 42:09
  They make me go into the freaking DMV and they charge fees,
• 42:12
  and then I gotta go pay this fee and this tax and all these other
• 42:15
  things all the time to the government and I get nothing out of it.
• 42:19
  If they're,
• 42:19
  by the way,
• 42:20
  if they're specifically designed
• 42:21
  to empty your wallets,
• 42:22
  they're doing a terrible job.
• 42:24
  I've been profitable,
• 42:25
  you know,
• 42:25
  you don't,
• 42:26
  look,
• 42:26
  I've been profitable on prediction markets every year since,
• 42:28
  what is it,
• 42:29
  2014.
• 42:31
  If you are on the other side of that,
• 42:32
  you know,
• 42:32
  people win,
• 42:33
  people lose,
• 42:33
  of course,
• 42:34
  you make money,
• 42:34
  you profit,
• 42:35
  you lose just like in any market.
• 42:37
  But the bottom line is,
• 42:38
  uh,
• 42:39
  if you want to clear out wallets,
• 42:39
  you're doing a bad job with the people over here at PredictableShow.com,
• 42:43
  uh,
• 42:43
  because it's not working out all that well,
• 42:45
  Kelshi.
• 42:45
  Maybe have to modify your stealing standards.
• 42:49
  Back in a second.
• 42:58
  Whether you like prediction markets or not or interested in them or not,
• 43:01
  you,
• 43:01
  you probably like elections.
• 43:02
  You probably are interested in the outcomes.
• 43:03
  If you think you can call the elections better than other people,
• 43:06
  go to Senatefantasy.com.
• 43:07
  We've got a Senate fantasy league going on right now.
• 43:09
  It's free to join.
• 43:10
  First prize is like 2500 bucks.
• 43:12
  Fund your prediction market account
• 43:14
  or just keep the money to yourself and do whatever you want.
• 43:16
  I don't care.
• 43:17
  Uh,
• 43:17
  but,
• 43:17
  uh,
• 43:18
  hey,
• 43:18
  it's free money.
• 43:19
  Um,
• 43:19
  so predictable,
• 43:20
  uh,
• 43:20
  show.com and Senate Fantasy.com.
• 43:23
  Uh,
• 43:23
  let's show the leaderboard here real quick.
• 43:24
  Uh,
• 43:24
  what do we have,
• 43:25
  uh,
• 43:26
  on the leaderboard if we could.
• 43:28
  Uh,
• 43:28
  there it is.
• 43:29
  Uh,
• 43:29
  number 1,
• 43:30
  bring back the Redskins is the team name.
• 43:32
  I think if they win,
• 43:33
  we have to actually bring back the Washington Redskins.
• 43:35
  No more commanders.
• 43:36
  Uh,
• 43:36
  what else do we have here?
• 43:37
  Uh,
• 43:38
  it's totally Stu's coping team,
• 43:39
  definitely not Stu Bergeer.
• 43:41
  Uh,
• 43:42
  Dave Landau for president at number 12,
• 43:44
  uh,
• 43:44
  Adam,
• 43:45
  our producer,
• 43:45
  number 13,
• 43:46
  very frustrating.
• 43:47
  No,
• 43:47
  oh,
• 43:47
  actually,
• 43:48
  New Zealand is fake,
• 43:49
  which is an interesting statement.
• 43:51
  Uh,
• 43:51
  I don't know if that's true or not.
• 43:53
  Uh,
• 43:53
  that's there.
• 43:53
  And then,
• 43:53
  uh,
• 43:54
  uh,
• 43:54
  16 is PMT.
• 43:55
  We gotta notify that.
• 43:56
  Jeb is a mess.
• 43:57
  He's at number 16 on the whole list.
• 43:58
  That's available now to you,
• 44:00
  uh,
• 44:00
  you can win free money and join us at senatefantasy.com.
• 44:03
  It's all the time we have.
• 44:04
  We'll see you later.