Latest / Stephanomics / The Return of the V Shaped Recovery

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The Return of the V Shaped Recovery · Stephanomics

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Well here it comes. Oh my goodness, oh wow, in
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: your life have you seen anything like that? Hello, and
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the global economy
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: to you. And this week also a moment of golfing
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: magic from Tiger Woods as he won the US Masters
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: in augusta back in two thousand and five. Last year's
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Masters was one of the first big sporting events to
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: be canceled due to COVID nineteen one contest kicked off
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: in grand form this week, one of many hopeful signs
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: of life returning to normal. But a lot of golf
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: courses aren't coming back from the pandemic, and it's all
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: down to the booming online shopping. Stay tuned to hear
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: more that and to learn how the UK is managing
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: after a hundred days of being properly out of the
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: European Union. First the return of the v shaped recovery.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: In the past few weeks, we've had an outpouring of
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: optimism about the economic recovery, especially in the US. They
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: are annual meetings. This week, the International Monetary Fund added
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: its voice to the chorus with the prediction that developed
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: economies could not only enjoy two years of rapid growth
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: in one and twenty two, but see little or no
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: permanent hit from the downturn of the IMF does see
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: inequality increasing due to the pandemic, with ninety five million
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: more people having been pushed into extreme poverty, and bumpier
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: recoveries in prospect for many emerging market economies. All in all,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: it seems a good opportunity to check in with our
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: chief economist, Tom Marlick in d C. Tom, you have
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: your own forecast out, just give us, give us some
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: of the highlight. So, first of all, Stephanie here at
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics, we were a little bit disappointed by the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I m F rushing out their world economic outlook just
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: a few minutes after we published our global forecast. Seemed
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: like it rather crass attempts to steal the limelight from us.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: But turning to turning to the substance um, the I
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: m F up their forecast from five five to six percent.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: That's an optimistic forecast. We're even more optimistic at Bloomberg Economics.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: We're penciling in six point nine percent growth for the
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: world economy this year. What are the big factors at work? Well,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: there's two main forces. First, you've got a virus in
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: retreat as vaccines roll out across advanced and some emerging
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: market economies. Secondly, you've got that huge US stimulus one
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: point nine trillion dollars, perhaps more to come if Biden
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: gets his infrastructure deal through. That pushes growth in the
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: US up to its highest level all since the early
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: nine eighties and sends ripples around the world as trade
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: partners benefit from stronger US in boards. And we did think,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I remember when we were talking about this last year,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: we thought that the emerging market economies would do a
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: lot worse than the developed economies economically, and that everywhere
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: we would see significant permanent scars from this crisis. Are
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: we revisiting either of those of you? So? I think
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: on the emerging market side, there's two big points to make.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: The first is a point about China. China really dominates
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: the emerging market space if you think about the size
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: of its economy. It was remarkably successful in controlling its
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: domestic outbreak, is having a v shaped recovery, and that
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: significantly shapes the sort of the overall emerging market picture.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Second point to make about emerging markets is once you
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: get past China. You really have to draw a distinction
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: between the exporters and the borrowers. The exporters countries like Vietnam,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: for example, they're going to have a stronger year as
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: they benefit from resurgent global demand. The borrowers, places like Turkey,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: places like Argentina are already suffering as US yields borrowing
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: costs start to rise. Thinking about the sort of the
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: largest scarring story, UM, I think the sort of the
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: unique character of the crisis was really that it was
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: a kind of a pure exogenous shock. It was like
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: the world was hit by an asteroid. There really wasn't
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: a sort of a fundamental problem of fundamental imbalance with
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: the world economy which caused the recession. It was just
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: the virus. And so the hope was always that if
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: we can get enough stimulus into the economy to keep
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: businesses solvent, to keep households afloat until a vaccine is found,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: then we can have a pretty rapid recovery. And so
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: now countries like the US and the UK where the
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: vaccines are rolling out fast, that's what we're starting to
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: see happen. I noticed that the IMF part of their
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: reasoning was that the area, the parts of the economy
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: that have been worst hit, what they would cause sort
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: of contact intensive so places, hospitality, things where people are
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: are in contact with each other. That that that the
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: damage done to those sectors was more likely to be
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: temporary and would not necessarily feed through to the broader economy.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: And the way that you've seen, for example, the damage
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: and the financial sector and the global financial crisis affect everything.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Do you think do you think there's some truth in
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: that or are they are they underestimating some of the
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: possible long term effects. That's a good question. I mean,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I guess if you think about the global economy, you
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: can think about sort of critical nodes in the global
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: supply chain and other parts of the economy which are
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: important but don't have so many inter connections, don't touch
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: so many other points. So at one extreme, if you
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: blew up Taiwan semiconductor industry, that would really send some
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: really serious ripples around the world. Right, we couldn't make smartphones,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: we couldn't make cars, we couldn't make laptops. The world
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: economy would in significant respect grind to a halt um.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: If you blew up your local Kentucky Fried Chicken or
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: your local cinema chain. That would be really bad news
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: for the for the people who worked there, bad news
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: for the local residents who enjoyed that service. But the
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: global ripple effects wouldn't be so severe. So perhaps a
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: virus that has devastating impacts on those sort of high
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: contact service industries that leaves the kind of the sort
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: of the hard infrastructure of the industrial sector largely untouched,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: maybe it doesn't leave such long term, such deep scars.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: We were talking to Heavier Blast last week about the
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: vulnerable points in the U s A on. I mean,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're developing a bit of a sideline
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: and sort of how to guide for for would be
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: global terrorists who want to bring down the global economy,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: just pointing up the key places they ought to try
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: and hit um. I did see that the head of
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: JP Morgan Jamie Diamond, in his letter for this year,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: had been extremely optimistic about the US recovery and thought
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: that the boom could continue for for several years. Are
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: we seeing risks there? I mean, there is now so
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: much optimism about the pace of US growth and so
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: much government money pouring into the economy. So I think
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: if we go back a couple of months to the
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: end of twenty UM, there were a couple of big
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: negative factors which people were concerned about for the US
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: in addition to the virus UM, so we had a
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: really fragile political situation. It looked like there might not
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: be sort of a clear control of the White House
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: and Congress by a single party, and that could stem
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: the attempts at fiscal stimulus. And we had the looming
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: threat of US China decoupling and all that could mean
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: for exports UM and for global supply chains UM. From
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: where we're sitting at the end of the first quarter
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: of one, both of those problems looked to have been
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: resolved or looked to be moving in a positive direction. UM.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: The Democrats have got control of the White House and
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: control of Congress and they're using that to push through
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: very significant fiscal stimulus and talking about a big infrastructure bill.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: And US China tensions they're they're they're escalating, But early
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: indications seemed to be that they could provide a motive
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: for the US to kind of invest in its future,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: invest in infrastructure, invest in education in a way which
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: if done right and if done on on the right scale,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: could start edging potential growth higher. And so certainly things
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: are looking a lot better now than they were three
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: months ago. But let's remember also how sort of tenuous,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: how fragile the politics which has underpinned this shift. Is
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: that fifty fifty split in the Senate, which is really
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the kind of the fulcrum on which all of this
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: is turning, could really move in either direction in the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: years ahead. Well, we're going to hear about the impact
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: of Brexit in the UK in a minute, but it
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: does make me wonder, I mean, when you that the
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: mute music coming out of Europe and the UK at
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: the moment is much darker than this feeling that they
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: have really messed up the vaccine rollout in the case
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: of the europe renewed lockdowns, causing some to to revisit
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: their forecast for the European economy. Is that I mean,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: is this the story that we're telling, The sort of bright,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: bright v shaped story we're telling is that primarily the U,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: S and China we're talking about, with Europe in the
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: UK potentially suffering more damage. So, um, the US and China,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: they're the biggest economies in the world. They're both going
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: to outperform this year. We're penciling in seven point seven
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: percent growth for the United States on a four quarter
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: four quarter basis, nine point three percent growth for China.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: With those two big economies doing so well, the world
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: picture looks pretty positive. Europe, as you as you know,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: is some way behind that. We see four point four
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: percent growth for the Eurozone this year and the recovery
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: starting later because they haven't done so well at rolling
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: out their vaccination program. Still, if you can kind of
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: step outside the kind of the intensity of the momentum
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: and think about the sort of slightly bigger picture for Europe, Yes,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: their recovery is going to be a bit slower, Yes
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: it's going to be a bit later, but we still
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: see Europe coming back very strongly from later in the
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: second quarter and heading into the second half of the year.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Tom Marlick, thank you very much. Thanks Stephanie. Now I
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: mentioned Brexit. Last time we heard from Bloomberg economic reporter
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Lizzie Burden, she was talking to lorry drivers queuing at
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: the port of Dover, wondering whether they would get home
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: for Christmas. Since then, Britain has probably left the European
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Union and early heavily distorted numbers suggests that trade between
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the UK and the EU has fallen dramatically. If you
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: make your living exporting shellfish, for example, you're hurting. That
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: sector's exports to the EU fell by nearly in January.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: But what about everyone else? Are all those gloomy forecasts
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: of what Brexit would do to the British economy finally
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: coming true? We asked Lizzie to give us an update.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Almost a hundred days since the chimes of Big Ben
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: marked that Brexit was formally completed. The UK government has
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: seemingly banned the B word, while coronavirus has overshadowed reports
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: of trade disruption. Still, like any divorce, UK EU relations
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: have been messy since January one. Some sectors have been
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: hit particularly hard. I asked James Withers, chief executive of
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Scotland Food and Drink, why it's been so tough for
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: his industry. So for a lot of this a hundred
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: days of paid. They have gone from a position where
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: it was as easy to sell their cheap drink products
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: to Manchester and England as it was to say, into Madrid.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: And what's happened just trying to get it into the EU.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Then a wave of new paper work, complexity, a lot
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: of cost into that, and we've seen systems breakdowns or
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: even partly product aisee league. But when they don't go partially,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: the product doesn't move at all. David Hennig, director of
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: International Political Economy, says British firms are disadvantaged because import
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: checks have been postponed for goods entering the UK unlike
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: those sent to the EU. It's really unbalanced. So explots
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: us to to Europe are perhaps wondering why they're the
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: only people who are having to go from the full
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: set of new checks and nobody else does. When you can,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: you can understand that that frustration, and I'm hearing it
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: pretty much up and down the country. Northern Ireland has
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: been especially affected because of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: effectively draws a trade boarder down the Irish Sea. Ashley
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Piggott is managing director of craig Oven based a j Power,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: a manufacturing company that's been crippled by additional post Brexit
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: surcharges to bring components into Northern Ireland from Britain. In
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: January there was one hundred and eighteen thousand, three hundred
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: consignments into all Ireland, which is a very low number.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: You know, your expectation would be more into the half
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: million plus. And all those consignments have to go through
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: eventually a process with transportation and typically that adds somewhere
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: in the region off between twenty and thirty point surcharge
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: per consignment, irrespective of the value. It's a different story
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: south of the Irish border. County Dublin based Hollyer Hannon Transport,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: which specializes in moving mixed loads of fresh produce, says
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: it's never been busier as Irish importers and wholesalers are
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: switching from GB to EU based suppliers. I spoke to
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Donald McCann, the company's managing director. Certainly in the first
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: couple of months um that was a very very big
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: reduction in the volumes and the that was certainly head
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: off in a way that the volumes were in Christo
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: our other which was from the entire island of Ireland
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: to mainland EU. We were fortunate and that the NI
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: protocol hasn't greatly affected us. I mean not in terms
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: of whilst we have obviously customers and Northern DAN customers,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: and we have Britain. We've been goods back and forward
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: between TV and n I that it would make up
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: a reasonably small fraction of the overall volumes that we transport.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Some businesses in Britain's more distant EU neighbors are suffering too,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: and A Stalinger, deputy director of the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: says a fifth of Swedish companies have had problems trading
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: with the UK since January. More companies say that they
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: will start finding other suppliers than the supplies from the UK.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: What we can see now is that with the higher cost,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: the higher it shapes, and the intitulation, the liberty and
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the problems in the logistics, Swedish companies are actually looking
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: at other countries to source from. So there is less
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: of optimism when it comes to imports from the UK
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: to Sweden beyond individual companies experiences. The first official UK
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: trade data since Brexit for the month of January reskewed
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: by the impact of COVID nineteen stop piling ahead of
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: the end of the transition period and a hangover effect
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: from the pre Christmas chaos at the port of Dover
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: when France shut its borders. So I asked David Hennig
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: what lies ahead. There's still a lot to happen in
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: the UK trade story. This is just the beginning hundred days.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, there is a reason why I can again
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: back assessments for trade deals and normally take place over
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: ten years. There's a huge amount of adjustment still to
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: happen in the UK you trade. It seems clear that
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: what the UK government has described as teething problems could
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: be here to stay. M Now, finally, I promised I
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: was going to explain why golf courses were turning out
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: to be one of the less obvious casualties of COVID ninety.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Our real estate reporter Alex Wittenberg in New York is
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: going to explain everything. Alex, um, what why is it
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: that the golf courses are disappearing at an increased rate
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: thanks to the pandemic. Yeah, so they're about There are
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: kind of two trends that are converging that make up
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: this trend we're seeing, and the first one has to
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: do with the decline in the rate of people playing golf.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: So in the late nineties and early two thousand's a
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: lot of golf courses started to be built, and that
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: had to do with Tiger Woods coming on the scene
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: and becoming a sensation, and by most accounts today they
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: over built. So since around the mid odds there have
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: been more golf courses closed than opened and um since
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: around two thousand and six, two thousand four courses have closed.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: So during the pandemic, we've seen a slight uptick in
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: the number of players playing golf, So there's around of
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: four increase in the number of rounds played and that
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: was the first time there was an increase in a while.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: But still because of the you know, flood into the
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: e commerce space during the pandemic, so many people wanting
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: to shop online, not go out into physical stories and
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: not being able to. Developers have seen the kind of
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: decline of golf as an opportunity to get into a
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: sector that is um really booming because of the pandemic
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: and should we be And I bet some of the
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: people living near these golf courses complained when the golf
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: course arrived, and then they had no idea they could
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: be much worse. They could be just a gigantic cupboard
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: for Amazon. Is that what we're talking about, just big
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: wares is sitting on top of what we're greens. Yeah,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: that's right, and it could be a real challenge when
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: the proposed development is close to where people live, because
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: people don't want big trucks driving through their streets throughout
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: the night, and that's often where they are. Yeah, because
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: usually golf courses are worth more when they're closer to
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: where people live, when they're in more affluent areas. In fact,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: a golf course can actually bring up the price of
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: a home if there's a home nearby a course. So
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: there are a number of challenges to conversion. But this
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: is those big warehouses as usually what we're talking about.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: So all those people who complain should now rush to
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: sign up to their local club to make sure it
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: stays there. In general, we've tended to think commercial real
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: estate is not done very well out of COVID nineteen.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Is this just one of the exceptions, Yeah, exactly. The
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: industrial space is an exception. Um. It actually had its
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: strongest year on record in and for the first time
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: ever at least since the you know, at least at
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: the end of investors had poured more money into the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: ind real space then into the office space for the
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: first time, um, since we've been tracking it. So this
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: was an exception and a lot of that was driven
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: by the e commerce boom. And so that is just
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: like I mean, we know that people have assuming or
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: thinking now that a few people are going to be
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: working in offices, or they're going to work less time
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: in offices, um, but we surely are spending a lot
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: more online. You mentioned that there had been a massive overbuild,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: and of course that's what happens in real estate all
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the time. There's a long lead times and then you
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: end up having overdone it. I mean, this is it's
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: quite hard to reverse once you've dug up a golf course.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Do you think this is going to turn out to
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: be overkilled as well? Yeah, it might be. I think
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: there's already some expectations that the rate of growth that
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: we saw in is going to decline in this year
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: when people are starting to go back to shopping in person.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: It's it's hard to say. I was on a call
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: with analysts from CBR not long ago and they seemed
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: very bullish about the growth of the market and beyond.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: So I think some a place like a golf or
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: is it really depends as well on whether players are
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: going to stay. There are new players who, because they're
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: confined to their homes during the pandemic, didn't want or
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: didn't see many other options for being active and taking
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: up a sport. So if that trend does stay, then
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: maybe this is kind of an unwise investment at this point.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: But I think most people are expecting that once other
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: activities become available, that the old trends are going to
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: come back, and that golf courses are not going to
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: be um as in demand as they once were. So well,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: so that's again there's one piece of the market, many
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: pieces of the market where people are feeling bullish. Alex Whittenberg,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: thank you very much. Thank you. So that's it for
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: this episode of Stephanomics. I'll be back next week with
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: a special conversation with the economist and sometime revolutionary Marianna Matsukata.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: For more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics during the week,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: you can follow as Economics on Twitter, or you can
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: also find me on at my Stephanomics. This episode was
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: produced by Magnus Hendrickson, with special thanks to Tom Warlick,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Lizzie Burden, and Alex Wittenberg. Lucy Meekin is the executive
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: producer of Stephanomics, and the head of Bloomberg Podcast is
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Francesco Leafy.