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Episode 17 - 4/5/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 17 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. The week is ending.
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The weekend is upon us here guys, and I have a bunch of bets
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here that I want to share with you today on a big Friday.
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A six pack overall including four Major League Baseball
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games, three of which are some pretty short favorites here so
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we can stack a few of these. Be nice little payout on the
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back end. Also, I have a bet for you in
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the NHLA team we bet the other night that came through.
0:55
I'm riding them again here tonight with a good sharp line
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move as well as a rest first tired system match and then I do
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have a bet on a big game tonight.
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Women's college basketball. Final four.
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Iowa, UConn, Caitlin Clark, Paige Buchers, Beckers.
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I don't even know how to pronounce her name but anyway I
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have a play on that game so hopefully we can retire one and
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O in you know bet one game. Our first one of the year which
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is a system match based on the data as well as a couple other
1:21
edges here. But if we could go one and O and
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retire, hey wouldn't that be great.
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But a six pack overall to share with you, which I'm excited to
1:28
talk about on a big Friday Pod episode. 17 of all systems go.
1:32
Now looking back toward yesterday, guys, unfortunately
1:35
our two day win streak came to an end, but it was basically
1:38
negligible, 3 and 2 -, 0.1 units.
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So we had a couple big wins with the Royals.
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They were kind of, you know, back and forth and was a tight
1:46
game. They blew it away or blew it
1:48
open. There in the late innings had a
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big what was it? 12:50 win.
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Cardinals came back. They were down against Miami.
1:54
I'm glad we stayed and danced with the one who brung us.
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Little Samantha invited us to the Sadie Hawkins dance.
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We didn't bail on her because the line dipped a little bit.
2:01
We stayed with our play. We're able to cash our bet there
2:04
with of course with of course the Cardinals.
2:07
And then the Colorado Avalanche. Avalanche came through for the
2:09
team. Remember, ABS were in a pretty
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good spot with a nice line move as well as a rest first tired
2:15
system match. So ABS got a winner there and
2:17
then unfortunately what kept us from a winning night was 1.
2:20
Indiana State over 159. That thing was so frustrating
2:24
because we we just needed one basket at the end by Indiana
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State to tie the game, which would have forced overtime which
2:29
would have cashed our bet. But if you take a step back
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Indiana State, they were stuck on 77 points for the last three
2:36
minutes of the game. Didn't score a single point in
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the last three minutes. So a bit of a bad beat there on
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our over 159. It end up landing, what was it,
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156? So again, just needed what,
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three more points if you got a 158 1/2.
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Even more annoying if you got a good number like that.
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And then NBANBA is going to be put in time out.
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I tell you what guys, when I bring my dog Meadow to the dog
2:57
park, if you're a bad dog where you're just annoying or being
3:01
mean, there's a little little fence.
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It's like a square little cage. It's like a prison cell.
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You get to go to dog time out. Well, guess what NBA is getting
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put in time out. Because NBA is just annoying the
3:11
heck out of me. Last night had the Denver
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Nuggets get raced to a big lead, but I knew we were in trouble
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because money lined up at -4 looking like they're going to 4
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1/2. But then This is why NBA is so
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annoying. Jamal Murray gets scratched
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late, expected him to play. He didn't.
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And then of course blew The Big Lead early.
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And Yokich actually had a kind of a not a not a great shot to
3:32
try to tie the game or win it. He bricked A3 which would have
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won the game. So NBA continues to be
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frustrating, but either way pretty much awash.
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But three and 2 -, 0.1 units. Let's see if we can get back to
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our winning ways today on a big Friday pod.
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Now before we dive in our sweats, just want to mention one
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thing real quick. I have a short announcement,
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small announcement, but me and James Santorum, my buddy from
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Rhythm, we will be going live for a Twitter live stream today
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at 3:00 Eastern Time. We're gonna go 3 to 3:30, kind
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of a short one here, but we wanted to talk about the Final
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four because obviously there are two big games here, which I
4:06
think if you followed the way this tournament is gone, don't
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even think about it. Late Purdue -9, late UConn, -11,
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1/2, they're both popular. Actually.
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Purdue is kind of a trendy dog. NC State is the popular play
4:18
there, but they've, you know, won and covered every time.
4:20
They're a dog in the tournament and the ACC tournament, but
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that's the way it's gone thus far.
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But all jokes aside, we will be breaking on these games.
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I'm also looking at the totals in these ones because I think
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there's an angle here to play at least one of these unders.
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But I will be breaking on those games with James, my buddy.
4:35
So just go on Twitter. You can find me at Josh under
4:38
score Insights. We'll be going live at 3:00.
4:40
So jump in, ask some questions. Maybe we'll fit in some MLB or
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some other sports as well. I'll be looking forward to doing
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that right after this pod drops. But anyway, guys, let's get
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right back at it. Who's loving MLB?
4:52
A little bit of a hot streak here after it was a rough
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opener. Starting to get our feet, get
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our, get our, you know what what do we call it, your sea legs
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here like Lieutenant Dan and we're starting to get a little
5:01
bit of a a groove going here with Major League Baseball.
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So let's start off with mentioned.
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I have 4 bets. First one on the board for me,
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guys. Let's go to a 435 Eastern Time
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game. This is late afternoon matchup,
5:13
San Diego and San Francisco, and I'm going with San Francisco.
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Give me the G men here, guys. Shop around.
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I got the G men at around -115. Now take a step back.
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Padres come in this one, four and three.
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They just dropped two or three though against the Cardinals.
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They did win the finale in that series, three to two as a -, 150
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home favorite. Glad they did, 'cause we were on
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them in that game. You know the G men 2:00 and
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5:00, but they played the Dodgers.
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They, you know, like got swept by the Dodgers, and I guess
5:39
there's no shame in that. They lost five to four in the
5:41
finale. Is a + 200 row dog now pitching
5:44
match up. Here we have Dylan.
5:45
Cease going for the fathers. Remember he was picked up late
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in the spring spring training in a trade from the White Sox.
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Probably happened to be out of Chicago.
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But Dylan cease O and one 3.86 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by Jordan Hicks who was look looked really good
5:59
in his first start with the Giants who's now one and O 0.00
6:05
ERA. So what we've seen across the
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market here, well it's not a massive steam move, but a little
6:09
bit of movement towards San Francisco.
6:11
San Francisco opened around -110 -, 115.
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We've now seen them get set up, steamed up to -115, some shops
6:18
even closer to -120. So it's not again not a huge
6:21
move, but a little tick up here in favor of San Francisco.
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Now the G men are getting around 60% of bets in dollars.
6:28
So modest public support but also some heavy sharp action
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here. What I really like about San
6:33
Fran is A1 system match in particular both teams coming off
6:36
a day off you didn't need so neither team played yesterday.
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Take the favorite. Very simple.
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But that system is 5 and 271% this year.
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It's 444 and two 6563% with a positive ROI since 2020.
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Now these teams did just face each other in the series opener
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and they split A4 game series in San Diego.
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But there was a game in particular where Hicks opposed
6:58
cease and Hicks got the better of of of the matchup.
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Hicks ended up going 5 innings no runs against cease and it was
7:06
a nine to six win. The Giants also have some value
7:09
as a favorite low total, so total in this one is only 7 1/2
7:13
actually open at 8:00 got hit down a little bit to the under.
7:16
So the fact that the line is moving a little towards San
7:18
Fran, little toward the under good correlative betting, you
7:21
know, basically the fewer amount of expected run scored, more
7:23
likely to come from quote UN quote the better team.
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Also if you look at this match up here, hopefully get some good
7:30
vibes like we got from the Cardinals because this is San
7:32
Francisco's home opener. So first game here at home, got
7:36
the crowd going for you, got the energy.
7:38
Hopefully that bodes well and gives a boost to the San
7:41
Francisco Giants. But the G men got a little bit
7:43
of line movement. They also have a great system
7:45
match. Both have the day off.
7:46
Take the favorite home opener. I think it's an angle here to
7:50
back San Francisco, so I'm laying it feels like a short
7:52
number. I got San Fran at -115.
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Let's go G men next, but up for ya.
7:59
I bet on this team once earlier this year and they were so
8:02
disgusting. I said, hey, I can't wait to bet
8:04
against them. Well, the day has come.
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Give me the Cincinnati Reds so I can bet against the Mets here
8:09
today. Guys, give me the the Reds.
8:11
I got the Reds at -120. Now.
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This is a 6:40 PM Eastern Time game.
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Mets coming to it one and five, they finally got a win.
8:19
They split a double header yesterday against the Tigers.
8:21
They won the nightcap 2 to one as a -, 120 home favorite.
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Meanwhile, the Reds 4:00 and 2:00 to start the year.
8:26
They just took two of three against the Phillies.
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They won the series finale 4 to one as a + 150 Rd.
8:32
Dogg. So starting now, Pitching match
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up here tonight. Jose Cantana, the lefty is going
8:37
for the Mets. He's O and one with a 3.86 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the Reds will go with their young flamethrower Hunter
8:44
Green O&O 3.86 ERA as well. What have we seen across the
8:48
market here? They're very similar to that San
8:51
Fran game. Sneaky steam in favor of the
8:53
short home favorite. So I'm going Reds in the spot
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guys. Reds open around -110 -, 115.
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Now they're up to -120. So line is moving towards
9:01
Cincinnati. Now the Reds are getting around
9:03
80% of bets in dollars on the money line.
9:06
So public play, but also some respected sharp action in the
9:08
form of that line move also. In particular though, I'm going
9:11
to bank on the Reds offense. They're hitting 265 versus just
9:15
173 for the Mets. The Mets have been one of the
9:18
worst hitting teams. Hope that continues.
9:20
So far this season the Mets have scored only thirteen runs this
9:24
year. The Reds have scored 34 runs.
9:26
So much better offense. Also this is a big rest first
9:29
tired system match in favor of Cincy.
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We talked a lot of rest. First tired.
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You know NFL team off a bye team on a short week.
9:37
Hockey. Obviously.
9:38
Rest first tired can really rear its ugly head.
9:41
You know, NBA back-to-back, that sort of thing.
9:43
Baseball. You'll see it every now and
9:45
again. This is kind of interesting
9:46
because the Mets are in a fade spot.
9:49
Rest first, tired because why the Mets played a double header
9:52
yesterday. Now they have to travel and go
9:53
to Cincinnati. Cincinnati.
9:55
Guess what? They were off yesterday.
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So we have one team who was off versus A-Team who had to play a
10:00
double header and has to travel. That's a good recipe for
10:03
disaster. I'm going to bet against that
10:04
team that had to play twice in one day and then had to travel.
10:08
So big advantage there for the Mets.
10:10
Reds also have or sorry, big advantage for Cincinnati I
10:12
should say. The Reds also have a angle here
10:16
non division favorite and we've talked about this system match
10:19
the Red Sox against Oakland for that series.
10:21
But the lack of familiarity he actually had this yesterday with
10:25
the Cardinals against the Marlins came through as well.
10:27
But lack of familiarity really benefits quote UN quote, the
10:30
better team. You'll get some run
10:32
differential. The Reds are plus seven.
10:35
Mets are -13, but we got a little bit of line movement
10:38
towards Cincy. But the big thing here for me,
10:39
guys, better offense and a huge rest.
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First tired advantage. I'm going with the Cincinnati
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red legs. I got the Reds at -120.
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Next bet for you, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
10:50
Going right back to the well with the Kansas City Royals.
10:53
Give me the Royals once again here, guys.
10:55
Bet on yesterday. They came through.
10:56
We're doing it. Same thing today.
10:58
This match up here. Royals are three and four.
11:01
White Sox are one and five. We all know that the Royals came
11:04
through for us last night. 12:50 win as a -, 185 home favorite.
11:07
Also we got some great CLV in that one.
11:09
Did you notice Kansas City closed?
11:12
I want to say close to -200, but anyway, Rematch here for tonight
11:16
we have Eric Fetty going for the White Sox.
11:18
O&O 3.86 ERA against Brady Singer.
11:22
I'm high on Singer this year. One and O 0.00 ERA Had a great
11:26
opener. We'll get to that in a second.
11:28
But wash, rinse, repeat. Sharp steam to Kansas City.
11:32
KS City open -175, they're up to -185.
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I see some shops even closer to -190.
11:37
So one sided movement in favor of the Royals.
11:40
No buy back the other way on the White Sox, Kansas City's getting
11:43
around 90% of bets in dollars. We mentioned this yesterday, but
11:47
you know if it's an NFL game team getting 90% of spread bets,
11:50
no way I'll I'll be on them. I'll be against them or layoff
11:52
baseball. I'm not as worried because it's
11:54
a lower bet sport. So even though 90% of bets is
11:57
quote UN quote public, technically you know this isn't
12:00
a this isn't a heavily bet sport like NFL or even like NBA.
12:03
So tells me that, you know, based on that line move toward
12:06
Kansas City, it's not just public.
12:08
It's a smaller share of public betters, but also respected
12:11
betters hitting Kansas City causing that number to rise.
12:14
Now, big edge here for the Royals on offense, they're
12:16
hitting 247 versus only 193 for the White Sox.
12:20
They've scored 34 runs, only 12 for Chicago.
12:24
Also, you'll get Singer mentioned him a second ago, but
12:27
he went seven innings, no runs, struck out ten, and a 11 to
12:30
nothing win over the Twins in his first start.
12:33
Royals, meanwhile, plus 13 in run differential.
12:35
White Sox are -20 and I was leaning a little bit toward the
12:39
under. I end up laying off, but I did
12:40
notice that a lot of 8 1/2's got down to 8.
12:43
Missed the triggering #8 1/2. But you do have wins blowing in
12:47
and a good bet. Split half the tickets but
12:49
nearly 80% of the money is on the under.
12:50
But add it all up here guys. Royals came through last night.
12:53
Let's see if they can do it again.
12:54
Shop around. I got the Kansas City Royals at
12:56
-185 now. Last bet of the night.
13:00
It's a Friday night. I'm staying up late to sweat my
13:03
Boston Red Sox. That's right, My favorite team.
13:06
But I hope you guys know this by now.
13:08
Don't just bet your favorite teams because they're your
13:10
favorite teams. You don't want to bet based on
13:12
what you think or want or hope will happen.
13:14
You got a bet based on what the market is telling you is sharp.
13:17
Here's the thing, though, if you're home, if your favorite
13:19
team happens to be sharp, then damn right we're going to play
13:22
them. So let's do it.
13:23
Red Sox at the Angels, late game tonight, 9:38 PM Eastern Time.
13:28
Why am I going with Boston? Well, First off, a little bit of
13:30
movement toward the Red Sox. You know, this game opened a lot
13:33
of books. The Angels, a very short like
13:35
-115 home favorite. Now the line's down to -110 ish.
13:40
Like basically we're kind of trending toward a pick em.
13:42
So it's not a huge move, you know.
13:43
But the Red Sox open getting a tiny bit of plus money, like
13:47
maybe plus one O 4 + 1, O 5. Now they've moved to like -1 O 3
13:51
-, 1 O 7. So line is going to Boston and
13:55
that's notable because if we look at the bet splits here,
13:58
it's basically 5050. Publix right down the middle
14:00
doesn't know where to go. Red Sox obviously look good to
14:02
start. Angel surprisingly look have
14:05
also looked really good to start and they're at home.
14:07
So Publix down the middle, but yet 72% of the money is on
14:11
Boston. So half the tickets but nearly
14:14
three out of $4.00 on the Red Sox and the line is moving ever
14:17
so slightly toward the Red Sox. So tells me the Sox are sharp
14:20
tonight. Now I'm going to bank on the
14:21
pitching match up here, hopefully to benefit Boston.
14:24
They have Cutter Crawford going Red Sox too.
14:27
He's a young righty O&O 0.00 ERA.
14:30
He'll be opposed by Griffin Canning O and 1 ERA of nine and
14:34
Cutter Crawford's first starting in Seattle.
14:36
He wants 6 innings, no run 7K's. Canning's first start against
14:40
Baltimore, 5 innings, five runs, only two K's.
14:43
So hopefully that is an advantage toward Crawford and
14:46
the Red Sox. Now, I'm also going to bank some
14:48
on some correlative betting dog high total with Boston.
14:51
And we talked a lot about being on a favorite, wanting a low
14:53
total of eight or less, 7 1/2 basically.
14:56
You really don't see sevens anymore.
14:58
If you're on a dog, you want to be on a high total, so 8 1/2 or
15:01
more, really nine or more. And we're seeing that here
15:03
today. A lot of these books are 8 1/2 /
15:06
-, 120 Red Sox. I see some Nines out there,
15:08
looks like it is going to 9 and that's notable because more
15:11
expected run scored, more opposite opportunities, more
15:14
variants, more opportunities here for the dog to cover that
15:17
number. Now I'm going to bake on two
15:19
things in particular for Boston. Their offense?
15:21
They've really been hitting the ball great to start the year 253
15:24
versus only 226 for the Angels and also team pitching.
15:28
Red Sox have a new Obviously I'm a Sox fan, even though I'm a
15:32
disgruntled Sox fan. But if you look at Andrew Bailey
15:36
used to be a pitcher for the Sox pitch for a bunch of different
15:38
clubs. He's their new pitching coach
15:39
and he's changed the way that they're approaching the opposing
15:43
hitters. Like they're throwing way more
15:44
off speed pitches, not as many fastballs.
15:47
And that's so far been really good good results here.
15:50
So the team ERA for the Red Sox 1.54 versus 4.85 for the Angels
15:56
and the Red Sox are still on a road trip here, but they're five
15:58
and two so maybe you got some mojo going.
16:00
Hopefully you can carry it over into LA here tonight.
16:04
I'll be out all up here guys. Think it's a good price to back
16:06
a hot Red Sox team with a decent little line move.
16:10
Correlative betting, better offense, better pitching with a
16:13
great bet split here. So I'm going Red Sox shop round.
16:16
I got Boston if you can find it. This is the best number around,
16:19
plus 100. That's about even money on
16:22
Boston. So San Fran, Cincinnati, Kansas
16:25
City, Red Sox. That's what I'm riding here for
16:27
tonight. Now let's cruise over to the
16:30
NHL. I'm doing pretty good here
16:32
recently in the NHL. Let's keep it rolling.
16:34
And then I would give you my play for the epic rumble in the
16:38
jungle, Caitlin Clark against against Page Beckers.
16:41
Let's go to the NHL here. I got one bet for you that
16:43
caught my eye. It's a team we bet the other
16:45
night and I think it's a great opportunity to back them again
16:48
here tonight. VGK, Baby, Vegas Golden Knights.
16:51
The Knights are on the road at Arizona and I'm gonna go with
16:54
Vegas here. Now this game opened Vegas
16:57
listed as around a -, 165 Rd. favorite and we've seen Vegas
17:02
gets steamed up to -175 S Nothing amazing here, but you do
17:05
have about a 10 cent steam move in favor of VGK.
17:08
Now hockey of course is a sport where I don't put a ton into the
17:12
percentages. Like if you look at and again
17:14
similar to baseball, it's just a lower bet sport.
17:17
But if you do look at the percentages for the Vegas School
17:19
of the Nights tonight, they're getting around 90% of bets in
17:21
dollars. But again, the line is also
17:23
moving in their favor. So kind of tells us that it's
17:26
not just a, you know, not just a public bet here, but also and
17:30
again, public as much as it can be in hockey because it's a
17:32
lower bet sport but also some smart money.
17:35
But here's what I really like about Vegas.
17:36
Aside from the line move, rest, first tired system match, they
17:39
last played on the 2nd, so they've been off since Tuesday.
17:44
You had the Arizona Coyotes play Wednesday, so a one day rest
17:48
advantage and that matches a lot of systems for me on VGK.
17:52
They all are basically a rest first tired system match.
17:54
We look at a rested favorite off a win.
17:57
So if you're a favorite, you're coming off a win, which VGK is,
18:01
and you're rested, you've had at least two days off since your
18:04
last game. Those teams are 132 and 7564%
18:08
this year. Also have a system match.
18:11
Which one is this? This is the number one, one
18:13
number one match here, a rested Rd. favorite who made the
18:18
postseason last year and the opponent did not.
18:20
So your favorite. You're expected to win, you're
18:21
rested, so you got your legs and you made the postseason last
18:25
year, so it means you're probably a pretty good team.
18:26
Your opponent didn't make the postseason, means they're
18:29
probably not that good. That system is 35 and 1767% this
18:34
year, 8% ROI then. In particular, this was the
18:37
match that was on last night. Colorado ABS, which came through
18:41
for us, but a rested Rd. Division favorite, at least two
18:44
days off division favorite on the road.
18:48
That system is, let's see, 79 and 3868% this year.
18:53
That also matches with VGK. Now aside from that, VGK has the
18:57
better offense, 3.2 goals a game versus 3.
19:00
Better defence giving up two point nine goals a game versus
19:02
3.3. Better penalty kill 80% versus
19:05
76%. They also VGK is playing really
19:09
well, They're nine and three their last twelve games.
19:11
Remember they picked up Noah Hanifin.
19:12
Great trade deadline deal. They also got Jack Eichel and
19:16
Petrangelo back from injury. Also get the goaltender match
19:20
up. Here we have Logan Thompson
19:21
going for VGK. He's got a 2.64 goals against
19:25
9/11 save percentage and he's 7 and O in his last seven starts.
19:29
He'll be going up against Carol Vermilka.
19:31
Vermika 3.3, three goals against, 899 save percentage.
19:36
He just gave up six goals to the Rangers.
19:38
His last start and that home is goals against is 3.45.
19:42
So Thompson's been playing well, Vermilka not so much.
19:45
And then lastly, anytime you get to the tail end of a season,
19:48
doesn't matter what the sport it is.
19:50
You got to think about the motivational edge.
19:52
Now this is a big advantage to Vegas because motivationally
19:56
Vegas has a a reason and a motivation to play well and get
19:59
a win. They have not clinched the
20:01
playoff spot and they're only one point ahead of the Kings for
20:05
the third spot in the Pacific. Now if the Kings overlap them,
20:08
then VGK becomes a wild card team.
20:10
Versus getting a top three in their division.
20:12
So you don't want that. You want to get that top three
20:14
in your division. Meanwhile, lack of motivation
20:16
for Arizona. They've long been eliminated
20:19
from the postseason. They got nothing to play for.
20:21
Oh, by the way, Arizona plays at a college stadium, so, you know,
20:25
not a lot of, you know, raucous crowd.
20:27
It's not a hostile environment for VGK.
20:29
It's also not very far, you know, obviously Vegas, Arizona,
20:33
pretty close here. So not a not a long trip in
20:35
terms of travel. I did notice one cool thing is
20:39
Arizona, I believe they unveil I saw it on Twitter yesterday,
20:42
plans for their new hockey stadium.
20:44
So to me it's like, get out of Arizona, It's just not working.
20:48
Give Quebec City. Give the Canadians another team.
20:50
They love hockey. They they treat the team much
20:53
better. But Arizona, if they can create
20:54
their own stadium, you know create like restaurants and bars
20:58
and stuff around it, almost like Patriot Place.
21:01
If you're like me in New England, that could work maybe.
21:03
So hopefully that happens because it's gross to have an
21:06
NHL team playing in a college arena.
21:07
But anyway, going VGK tonight, guys, give me the Vegas Golden
21:11
Knights at -175. Then last bite of the night for
21:15
you. The big one.
21:16
Not a big boy, big girl. I hope that maybe that sounds
21:19
bad, but you you know what I mean.
21:21
I scratched that, you know, that came off a little weird.
21:23
Anyway, the big match up tonight is Yukon against Iowa women's
21:28
college basketball, the Final Four.
21:31
And we have an opportunity here, I think to back, you guessed it,
21:34
Caitlin Clark. I'm going with Iowa here, guys.
21:36
I'm going Iowa on the money line and there are a couple reasons
21:40
why. To me, Iowa is the play.
21:43
So First off, let's look at the line movement.
21:45
No matter what I bet on, it all starts for me based on line
21:48
movement and where the sharp money is flowing.
21:52
So right off the bat, if you look at how this line is moved,
21:56
a lot of books open Iowa around -2 -, 2, 1/2.
21:59
Now they're up to -3. So line is moving toward Iowa.
22:03
Now Iowa is getting 75% of bets but 90% of the money.
22:07
So yes, it's a public play, but that is around a + 15% smart
22:11
money discrepancy. Low bets, higher dollars.
22:13
I was also looking at some look headlines.
22:16
If Iowa wins this game, they would be around plus 4 1/2
22:18
against South Carolina. If UConn wins, they'll be plus 6
22:21
1/2 against South Carolina. So the fact that, you know, 22
22:25
less points or you know, two more for UConn, whichever way
22:28
you want to look at it, tells me that Iowa's the better team.
22:30
They'd be getting fewer points in a hypothetical matchup
22:33
against South Carolina. I'm also going to bank on Iowa's
22:36
offense. They're averaging 92 points a
22:37
game, number one in college basketball.
22:39
UConn only averages 80 points per game.
22:41
So will UConn have the firepower to keep pace with Iowa?
22:44
I'm hoping not. I'm also going to look at
22:46
Caitlin Clark and the motivation of Iowa.
22:48
This is Caitlin Clark, probably her last game now, ironically
22:52
enough, she's O and two against UConn in her in her career.
22:55
So there's reason for revenge and trying to, you know, get
22:57
this win against Connecticut and then also the motivation of Iowa
23:02
lost the championship game last year to LSU.
23:05
So you see this quite a bit, whether it's, I don't know, my
23:08
Boston Bruins who the year before they won the Cup, they
23:11
got swept away. Who was it against the Flyers or
23:15
the Red Sox? You know, the Tim Wakefield Rest
23:18
in peace, give up the Homer to Aaron Boone.
23:20
You lose. You come back the next year and
23:21
win it all and break the curse. A lot of times you'll see you
23:24
know teams who carry over you know the sting of the the
23:26
previous year and use that as motivation chip on their
23:29
shoulder the following year. So hopefully that is that play.
23:32
Also could is this Caitlin Clark Clark's last game you know if if
23:35
they lose is is is she going to go do the the big three and make
23:38
5,000,000 bucks go to the WNBAI think she does have one more
23:41
year left in college if she wanted to to do that and I was
23:44
reading about how she'd probably make more money through nil than
23:46
she would. I want to say it's like 70,000 a
23:49
year if you're in the WNBA that's that's peanuts.
23:51
They should be paid more. But anyway I was also reading
23:54
about the matchup UConn in particular.
23:56
We all know Gino Oriema, UConn powerhouse team, but they kind
24:00
of have a lack of depth. They only bring two people off
24:02
the bench, Iowa brings four off the bench.
24:05
So I was reading about how you know the lack of depth for I for
24:08
UConn could hurt them versus a very deep team for Iowa.
24:11
And I was also looking at the starting lineups, how the
24:15
basically, you know, senior, freshman, sophomore, junior, you
24:18
know, how are these players the their experience level along
24:22
with their height height's about the same.
24:24
But if you look at Iowa, they're starting three seniors and no
24:27
freshmen. UConn is starting two freshmen,
24:30
only two seniors. So basically Iowa is the more
24:33
veteran team obviously led by, you know, the GOAT here, Caitlin
24:37
Clark. So this is my first bet in
24:39
college, women's, college basketball all year long and I'm
24:42
going to go with Iowa. You know if this was Iowa
24:45
getting 90% of bets, maybe Lions going against them.
24:48
Maybe it's a fade the trendy dog or fade the popular bet.
24:50
No. Even though this is popular, you
24:52
got more money, a line move, motivation, better scoring,
24:55
better experience and more depth.
24:57
So I'm going to go Iowa here now I went money line so win the
25:00
damn game. Let's go Caitlin Clark.
25:02
Let's win the game. Let's make Gino Oriemma who I
25:05
kind of find annoying. Let's let's give him a a losing
25:08
night. Tonight I'm on Iowa Hawkeyes
25:10
money line. Let's go Caitlin Clark at -155.
25:16
That about does it for episode 17 of the All Systems Go sports
25:19
betting podcast. Now if you are new to the pod
25:23
#1, thank you for tuning in. If you're here from episode one
25:26
or all the previous thousands of pods I did before this one,
25:29
thank you for taking the time out of your day to pull up a
25:32
chair to the virtual bar and talk sharp sports line Sports
25:36
betting here with sharp line moves system matches all the
25:39
things we look at as a data-driven better.
25:41
But also, I need your help to grow the pod.
25:44
And I've seen really good, you know, kind of effects here of
25:47
mentioning this yesterday because saw a lot of five star
25:50
reviews pop up on Spotify. But that's what I need from you
25:52
guys. Can you give this pod five stars
25:55
on Spotify or iTunes? Can you recommend it to a
25:57
friend? Can you retweet it when you know
26:00
I tweet it out from at Josh under score Insights or the All
26:03
Systems Go Twitter page at under score?
26:06
ASG under score Podcast mean a lot.
26:08
It'll go a long way to continuing to promote this
26:11
podcast, of course. If you enjoy this style of
26:14
betting, data-driven betting, put your, you know, leave your
26:17
heart at the door. Bet based on your head and what
26:18
the market is telling you with a contrarian mindset and trying to
26:21
be on the sharp side of every bet.
26:23
If this style of betting is spoken to, you helped you to win
26:27
some bets, giving you a blueprint to kind of lean on and
26:30
attack different sports through the same lens, even though maybe
26:33
it's a little bit different each sport, but the whole point is
26:36
the same. Sharp contrarian.
26:37
That's the goal. If any of that is the case, or
26:40
if you just enjoy the pod, Want to make my day?
26:42
Let me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in grinding
26:45
in the arena each day. Then I have a request.
26:47
Could you please go buy my book? Go to Amazon.com, type in the
26:52
Everything Guide to Sports betting, Pick up a copy for you
26:55
or for a friend? It's got everything I've learned
26:56
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
26:59
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
27:01
action, how to place a bet in person or online, How to shop
27:04
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
27:06
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
27:08
Betting. So buy a copy.
27:10
It will mean a lot to me, and I will buy you a beer and sign it
27:12
for you when I see you at the book.
27:14
With that being said, whether I see you at the Borgata in
27:17
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
27:20
Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
27:22
Down in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
27:24
Park Casino. M Jim Springfield.
27:26
In my neck of the woods. Or out in the desert where the
27:29
true grinders get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
27:31
number runners, where the lowest use possible is found at the
27:33
South Point where you walk in there.
27:35
And it's 1970, even though I wasn't around in 1970, That's
27:38
what I feel like it would. It would.
27:39
It would look like, or of course, what I like to call the
27:42
the Sports Betters amusement park circa out in Vegas.
27:45
Nothing better than getting a victory burger, hanging by the
27:48
pool, getting a, getting a getting, maybe getting a tan
27:51
while you're betting on sports. How about How's that?
27:53
Wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me and show me
27:55
some nice tickets from yesterday.
27:56
Show me a Kansas City Royals ticket, a Saint Louis Cardinals
27:59
ticket, a Colorado ABS ticket. Whatever you do, don't show me
28:02
the Indiana State over. I can't believe we didn't get
28:05
that one total total collapse there from the Sycamore slate.
28:08
But anyway guys, we keep grinding.
28:10
I also want to tell you of course and leave you with this.
28:12
Have you heard about Rhythm? Have I done my part letting you
28:16
know and teaching you about rhythm?
28:18
Hopefully I have, but if you haven't done it yet, go sign up
28:21
and download the Rhythm app and start a 7 day free trial.
28:24
Rhythm powers this app. Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports
28:27
betting app for data, back pics and props.
28:29
The ultimate AI sports betting platform and AI and Rhythm will
28:33
give you just some great insights into And again you can
28:36
either blindly play all the rhythm edges or you can pick and
28:39
choose or you can use it as you know kind of like Ken Palm in
28:41
college basketball. Just one last box to check off.
28:45
But Rhythm is fantastic, especially if you like props.
28:47
And if you haven't done it yet, I need you to go sign up for a
28:50
free Rhythm seven day trial. All you got to do is go on
28:54
Twitter and go to my Twitter page at Josh under Score
28:57
Insights as well as you can also go to the All Systems Go Twitter
29:01
page pinned at the top of both pages.
29:03
This little tweet. It's going to say it's going to
29:05
mention Rhythm in the pod. There's going to be a link at
29:07
the bottom. It's a custom link.
29:09
Click that sign up so that rhythm knows that I refer to you
29:12
and hopefully you can start to make smart AI backed picks once
29:16
you get that app downloaded. With that being said, guys, my
29:18
parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
29:21
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
29:23
house. Always be with the smart money,
29:25
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
29:27
Of course not. Because guess what, sports
29:29
betting difficult. Have you realized that yet?
29:31
But that's what makes it challenging.
29:32
That makes, that's what makes it rewarding.
29:34
When you're doing well or if you're struggling, you don't get
29:36
down on yourself, you just keep grinding whether you're up,
29:39
down, treading water. But if we can find that sweet
29:42
spot against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
29:45
bet. Avoid parlays, Get some CLV.
29:47
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
29:50
So enjoy your Friday, everyone. Reminder no pod on the weekends,
29:53
so we'll be back at it on Monday when football season rolls
29:56
around. We will definitely be doing pods
29:58
on the weekend, but look out for an article for me breaking down
30:02
some of the March Madness games for this weekend.
30:05
And of course again as I mentioned, we back at on Monday.
30:07
But enjoy the sweats. Everyone have a great Friday.
30:09
Enjoy the weekend. If you're like me, we got like a
30:12
foot of snow here. This was this was winter rearing
30:15
its ugly head. Hopefully it melts and spring is
30:18
in the air because I don't want any snow for the Red Sox home
30:20
opener. But enjoy your weekend everyone.
30:23
Have a great night. Let's see if we can cash some
30:24
tickets. There's nothing better, but good
30:27
luck. Enjoy the sweats, and I'll see
30:28
you guys back on Monday for episode 18 of the All Systems Go
30:32
Sports Betting podcast.