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Eye On Politics · Newsradio WGAN

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  Time, every Wednesday we have an opportunity to speak with our
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  Eye on Politics team who joins us every week at this time.
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  Eric Lusk and Keith Mestrich is with us right now and Keith, of
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  course, is continuing to fill in for BJ who is off on paternity
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  leave. Thanks so much, gentlemen, for
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  being here. How are things?
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  Terrific. Fantastic.
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  Just ready for spring to spring. Ready for spring to spring?
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  Interesting. Let's let let's.
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  Get, let's get warm. Let's, you know, let's, let's,
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  let's see 70° a couple of times, yeah.
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  Well, I feel that. I definitely feel that.
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  But let's actually start off guys, by going into Maine
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  politics here for a moment. We have a, you know, hearing
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  yesterday over the The Maine girl dad's referendum question.
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  This is the trans athletes in in girls sports issue.
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  The if anybody followed it, I'm not sure if either of the two of
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  you had an opportunity to kind of keep up to to keep up with
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  exactly how that was all going and what not.
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  But there was a lot of accusations that were levied
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  about the signature collection collecting in there being done
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  improperly, fraud or carelessness, etcetera.
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  And the people that are challenging these questions or
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  this question being on the ballot ultimately said that
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  because of these irregularities, there are there are going to be
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  enough signatures disqualified for it to not appear on the
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  ballot. Do you think that it's
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  successful? You know?
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  It's going to be interesting, right?
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  I mean, here we have an instance where Shanna Bello is sort of
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  sided with the people who are doing it, saying they collected
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  it correctly. The people who are challenging
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  it have continued to press. It feels to me like it's a very
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  systematic evaluation of the validity of the signatures that
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  have been collected. I think if I'm not mistaken,
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  they have to decide in the next two weeks if this will be on the
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  ballot or or not. I, I, I, I think the process is
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  proceeding accordingly. And you know, they'll be a
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  decision here and we'll decide if we have this issue on the, on
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  the ballot or not. But I'm I, I have a lot of faith
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  in the and confidence in the process that's going forward.
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  A fun question for you, Keith. As a follow up, do you if it
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  ends up on the ballot, do you think that that is more
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  motivating and good for the left or the right in this?
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  In this particular, it's an interesting, it's an interesting
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  question. I think it's probably more
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  motivating for, for, for the right.
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  I, I think as we talked about last week a little bit, I think
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  that motivation on the left is already profound.
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  I think there is is significant motivation for die hard
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  progressives, Democrats to get out and vote and send a message
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  to the Trump administration. I think that is that that is
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  where we start this election. I think there's going to be
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  motivation on the right too. And I think this will, this is
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  a, this is an energizing issue for people on the right, for
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  some on the on the left, but I think this probably energizes
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  more on the right than it does on the left.
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  So. Your your argument, Keith, then
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  would be that the delta on the on the left is very small
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  because they're already fired up, whereas it may actually make
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  a meaningful difference for the people who may be kind of
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  borderline on the right. Said it better than I did well.
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  No, I couldn't. I was only characterizing what
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  you said, Sir. Let's talk to Eric Lesko.
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  I believe we now have on the phone.
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  Eric, how are you? Sorry about the computer crash,
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  but at any rate, I think I get the gist of your general
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  question and this is probably not going to be as good of an
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  issue as bear baiting, but it is not going to be far behind and I
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  think this will get people out to the polls.
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  Let's not forget, typically speaking in Maine, a governor
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  gets 2 terms and if I go back over the last, you know, call it
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  40 years and anybody who won an election the first time probably
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  won at the second time. Maine is looking to have a
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  changeover. Could it be an independent?
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  Could it be a Republican? After eight years of having had
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  a Democrat, chances are pretty good the Republicans and and
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  independents who were going to lean toward having a change of
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  party in the Blaine House are going to be motivated for some
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  change. This throws some gasoline on top
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  of that fire. Speaking of the elections that
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  will be taking place as that may or may not be on the ballot this
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  year, I've had an opportunity this week to speak with the
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  Democrats that are running for governor of Maine.
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  We just had Hannah Pingree on earlier today, Angus King third
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  yesterday. And then on Monday we had Shanna
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  Bellows. You know, week before that I had
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  all the Republicans on. So we're getting into, you know,
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  crunch time here. I mean, we're within 30 days.
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  Voting is actually starting now. I think 27 days left is what
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  Hannah told me. So as we now finally get to the
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  point where there's a gun to people's heads and they have to
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  make a decision, what decision are they making?
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  Let me stick with you, Eric Lusk.
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  And you can start by talking about the Republicans as it is
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  your area of expertise. What are you hearing buzz wise
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  out there? I'm getting the impression that
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  Bobby Charles knows that his great polling results from a
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  week or two ago are not as ironclad as he would have had us
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  believe at the outset. And you can find him taking
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  potshots now at Ben Midgley. Typically speaking, if you have
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  two candidates that are vying for the front, the one who,
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  sorry, the one who's getting the most fire is the one who was
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  probably closest. So that gives a pretty good
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  indication that, yes, Bobby Charles thinks Ben Midgley is a
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  real threat. And then you get some commentary
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  that may or may not be entirely, that may or may not be really
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  researched and and accurate. But nonetheless, here we are now
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  seeing the Charles campaign taking shots at the Midgley
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  campaign Dynamite. We're getting into the thick of
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  it. It's getting to the fur is
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  flying now. And I would say the Migsley
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  campaign is going to tell us, Yep, we are beginning to surge
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  at the right point. And then you see the strategic
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  alliances being formed. Would you be my backup
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  candidate? My, my backup right in after
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  somebody votes for me because of ranked choice voting.
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  Thanks very much for the to the Democrats for forcing that on
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  the Republican primary. But at any rate, you're now
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  seeing the alliances getting formed.
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  Yes, the rubber is meeting the road as you look over on the
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  Democrat side of the aisle. The problem that Shanna Bellows,
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  Hannah Pingree and the Reeb Shaw all have is they've been part of
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  the Mills administration. They have to say everything is
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  fine. And if anything is wrong in the
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  state of Maine, it is the Trump. It is the fault of Donald Trump.
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  Angus King, the third doesn't have that problem.
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  And that's why he sounds when you get him on a radio
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  interview. And I've heard a couple of them.
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  Hopefully including mine yesterday.
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  Pretty normal. He he sounds pretty normal.
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  Yeah, Keith, going back to you, you know, as you look over,
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  frankly, both parties, yes, but give me a little bit of the
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  inside dope on the Democratic side if you could, too.
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  How does this start shaping up now that people are actually
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  making decisions and actually voting?
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  Well, I think you, you know, as expected, now that we're about a
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  month out, people are starting to really focus.
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  You're seeing a lot more coverage.
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  The debates have started to happen.
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  People are really focused on the, on, on, on the election.
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  But I think it continues to be, unlike Eric's ability to begin
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  to handicap something on the Republican side.
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  I think it's really hard to do on the Democrat side.
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  I, I think you, you have a lot of policy agreement amongst the
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  five candidates who are, who are running.
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  I think that there's been nobody who's really been able to break
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  out from the pack. They're unlike on the Republican
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  side. We really haven't seen the
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  candidates begin to try and attack each other.
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  I think they're, they're, they're playing it pretty safe
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  because I think they don't really understand all the
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  dynamics around rank choice and don't want to irritate
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  supporters of another candidate who then may rank a candidate
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  second. So I think that's an incredibly
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  difficult contingency in this race to figure out what's going
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  to do. And of course, the other
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  contingency we have is that independents can vote in the
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  primary of their choice here. And you started to see on
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  Democratic side, some appeal to the, to the independent base as
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  well to try and figure out, get people to the polls and stuff.
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  I, I, I, I have no clue where this, where this race ends up.
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  And I, it's going to just be fascinating to watch.
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  Probably goes to three rounds of ranked choice just given the
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  math, and it's going to be interesting.
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  I do think what will happen, though, is that you will quickly
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  see the candidates on the Democratic side rally around
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  whoever the winner is. I don't think there's any doubt
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  about that for sure. Well, you know, when you're
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  considering this race too, you can't ignore the fact that we
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  haven't talked about him a lot. But you also do have Rick
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  Bennett in this race. I know that how he does is
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  actually going to be largely dependent on who each party
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  actually ends up nominating and whether or not he has a wide
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  open middle lane or not. How do you how do you actually
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  judge Rick Bennett's electability in this race?
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  Eric Lusk. I mean, he's run for Congress in
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  1994. He ran for that U.S.
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  Senate seat when Olympia left in 2012.
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  He's always been successful as a, you know, state Senate
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  candidate, but it hasn't really happened for him in the in the
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  bigger stage. Is this year any different?
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  Eric Lusk. I am thinking he pulls from the
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  Republican base less and less as each piece of legislation that
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  he votes with the Democrats for comes and goes.
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  When he comes out and he says yes, a biological male can claim
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  the right to be in the girls locker room, he tends to lose
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  the Republican side of the aisle.
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  How is that going to play with the unenrolled?
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  I don't think it's going to play particularly well for him there
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  either. My hunch is the the the Bennett
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  vote is going to be pulling more from the Democrat side of the
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  aisle than it's going to be pulling from the Republican
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  side. Keith, same question to you.
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  Think I disagree with Eric. I, I think if the Republicans
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  nominate one of the more mogga type candidates for the far
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  right candidates like Garrett Mason or, or Bobby Charles, I
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  think, I think the that a lot of moderate Republicans will look
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  for some place else to vote. And I think they'll, they'll
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  look to Bennett as a place where they'll cast their ballot
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  depending on who the candidate is and, and how much the other
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  side tries to portray them as, you know, ultra progressive,
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  they bet it could pull from some of the some of the Democratic
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  bases. Well, but again, I go back to
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  this. I think there's a lot of
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  motivation here on the Democratic side.
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  I think they'll see through Rick Bennett's purported moderation.
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  They'll see him as a Republican. And they don't think he'll pull
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  much from the Democratic side. All right, so let's take a look
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  at the national scene, guys. We have, of course, the
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  continuation of the Iran conflict.
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  It's kind of boring me now how how routine this all is.
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  You know, when you're talking about whether or not there's
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  going to be some kind of deal, there's always this hope on the
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  horizon there will be. There isn't one that ends up
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  ultimately materializing. And we're sort of stuck in the
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  same place we've been for several weeks now.
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  Eric Lusk, what's your evaluation of not only where we
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  are with that conflict, sort of in the geopolitical sphere, but
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  what it means for the president politically in this very
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  contested midterm election? The S&P 500 since the 30th of
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  March is up around 17%. The NASDAQ is up around 25%.
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  So in many regards, the US economy has already looked past
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  the conflict. We now have the Chinese
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  Communist Party coming out telling the Iranians, you need
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  to get this thing sorted through and come up with some answers.
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  The Iranians are now beginning to say, OK, we'll hand over the
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  nuclear material to an independent third party.
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  So eventually, sorry, we're gradually seeing that their big
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  block of ice that is sitting out in the sun is melting faster
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  than the big block of ice the United States has melting in the
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  sun, which is determined, apparently, in everybody's
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  mind's eye by the midterm election.
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  Trump is holding out for the time being, knowing that
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  eventually the inability to sell oil is going to create a bigger
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  problem for the Iranians in the near term than it's going to
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  cause for him, call it four or five months down the road.
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  So it looks as Trump believes he's got more room to come up
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  with more time rather to come up with a deal that he's more
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  interested in having. And I believe Trump is looking
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  at what is going on with the Chinese economy, which is doing
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  reasonably well, but they're having consumer issues and their
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  consumption of oil is way down, which is a much bigger problem
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  for them than it is in the United States.
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  I wonder if we're going to get something coming out of this
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  meeting between G and Trump in the next couple of days that has
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  a big impact on what's going on in the Persian Gulf.
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  Keith thoughts there? Yeah, I don't think the number
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  that matters here is what stock market is doing.
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  I think it's the inflation report that came out yesterday.
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  And I think this is increasingly becoming a liability, not just
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  for the president who's not on the ballot this year, but for
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  all Republicans, gas 450 a gallon, starting to see the
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  downstream impacts on inflation on on other kinds of things.
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  That's, that's now the impact of this, of this war.
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  It's kind of sad that we are all getting bored by it because it
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  is a it is a conflict. But I think that is the
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  political liability that's going to happen.
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  I think that's just going to deepen and, and, and, and get
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  worse as, as that affordability set of issues is the thing that
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  people will focus on in this election.
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  And that's that's going to be a real yoke around the entire
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  party for the Republicans. I think it's a real problem for
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  them. A yoke.
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  There you go. All right, Eric Lusk, I'm going
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  to go back to you. Last question probably we have
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  time for. But this week we've seen more
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  movement on the redistricting front, obviously since the
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  decision of the Supreme Court level in the Louisiana case.
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  Louisiana's already taking a look at their maps and redrawing
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  them. Alabama's also got the thumbs up
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  from the Supreme Court to go ahead and start doing theirs.
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  You know, when you go back to the beginning of all of this, it
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  has been a back and forth for sure.
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  But it seems as though the Democratic attempts in the wake
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  of what happened with Virginia and that Supreme Court case have
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  stalled, while the Republican redistricting efforts across
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  multiple states are continuing to charge.
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  Full ahead here. You know, analyze all this for
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  me. What does this mean for our
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  midterms? Does it actually help protect
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  the Republican majority? Is it going to be too little,
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  too late, substantial enough? What do you think?
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  It is going to be a huge assist for the Republicans that you're
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  able to pick up four, likely pick up four seats in Florida.
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  You are likely to pick up a couple of at least one seat in
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  Louisiana. Le Page looks to be in pretty
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  good shape without any redistricting going on to win
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  Congressional District 2. You're probably looking at three
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  or four more districts in in Texas.
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  And now you've got a lawsuit going, starting up in Illinois,
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  one of the more spectacularly gerrymandered states in the
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  entire country, never mind Massachusetts.
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  But you've got a court case starting up there as well to
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  bust up some gerrymandering based on racial lines.
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  And I think this is probably going to bode well for the
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  Republicans nationally. Getting rid of affirmative
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  action for congressional candidates is going to be a big
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  shift in the in the county, sorry in the map for years to
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  come. And over to you, Keith, how what
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  do you make of where we are with this redistricting fight and how
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  it's going to affect the midterms?
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  I think Eric's analysis is not not too far off in terms of the
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  impact on this election. I think some of those
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  redistricted districts might not be quite as red in this sort of
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  potential blue wave election that we're looking at.
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  And some of it, some of it might backfire.
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  But I think Eric's largely right.
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  But this is just, this is just sad.
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  This is just, this is not good for our democracy.
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  This just creates sort of more polarization over all of our
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  electorate. That's that's not been good for
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  us. And and this will come back over
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  time to be really a tragedy for our democracy.
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  It's really, it's really awful what's happening.
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  Can anything be done to fix this?
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  I guess either one of you can jump in on this question here.
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  You know, if it's a tragedy for your democracy accuracy, but
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  there's no signs of any possibility of fixing it in the
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  future, that's a pretty depressing future.
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  Is there any possibility to do anything about it?
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  I don't know. So you'd need a constitutional
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  amendment probably to try and figure it out, but I, I, I don't
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  have a solution. Oh, that's unsatisfying, Keith.
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  That's unsatisfying. Do you?
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  Are you awful, Eric? When the when the Democrats get
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  a court decision, our democracy that they like their democracy
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  is fine. But when somebody comes through
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  and says, yeah, you, you can't go changing the rules midstream
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  in Virginia, you're supposed to bend to the the mob ocracy.
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  If it's OK to have mob ocracy when it works for the Democrats,
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  But we're it's the end of democracy when you have the 3rd
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  branch or a branch of government say, hey, that's
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  unconstitutional. Okay, I get it.
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  All right. Well, I think that's about all
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  that we have time for this morning, gentlemen.
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  So I will once again say thank you for being here for I on
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  politics and we will talk again next Wednesday, everyone.
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  Thanks. Thanks for being here, guys.
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  Appreciate it, Eric. Thank you also.