Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Schedule Release Betting Breakdown | AFC Edition

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NFL Schedule Release Betting Breakdown | AFC Edition · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast and you
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: are tuned in to our a FC breakdown post NFL
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: schedule release. I've got Kendra Middleton with me, Van Abrams,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: who puts the prime in primer, and we've got a
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: special guest joining us in a moment as well.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: The NFC episode is in the books, go and check
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: it out.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: It is now time to talk about the American Football
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Conference and we saw lot them in like Chris Collinsworth.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: You'll go ont joining us for a breakdown of the AFC.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Are you ready to roll, my friend.
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: Yes, sir. AFC is probably where I have my most
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: confident bet I really like. I gave out a bet
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: on the NFC pod that I really like, but this
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: AFC one, this is my plant the flag.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: I was looking up and down all these primetime schedules
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: and I don't know, I haven't done the numbers on this,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: but just off of glance, it seems.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Like the NFL likes the AFC a lot more than.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: The NFC based on some of the teams that they
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: are featuring throughout the course of the season on all
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: of these primetime windows Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: and it makes sense. You got Lamar Jackson, You've got
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: a Burrow, You've got my Homes, You've got Kelsey, You've
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: got tail.
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: Alaire Swift.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Right, Kendra, who crushed it in the social media schedule
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: release in the AFC you said in the NFC episode,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: just wait until we talk AFC, So we want the
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: positive first, and then you take as much time as
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: you need shitting on the rest.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Of these teams.
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: Okay. The winners for me the Patriots.
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: They did a Patriots video with a local organization that
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: they work with for adoptable dogs. Adorable, obsessed anytime you
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: include puppies, I don't even need it to be funny.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: I'm in chargers.
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: With the Halo video, I was a Halo kid.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: Halo three is my favorite video game of all time.
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: I loved it.
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: It was a little long, but they always crush it. It
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: was incredible. They are just so creative over there. Amazing Raiders.
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: Their step Brothers video also incredible. I don't know if
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: you saw that one.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: That was the best one.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: Plus it was so good.
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna say the My favorite was the Titans. I
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: loved the Titans video. I thought that it was funny.
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: I thought it was creative. The Miles Garrett joke, I
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: honestly spit out my water laughed out loud at their
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: Miles Garrett joke. And then I think that the Colts
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: also did a really good job, Like I am the
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: first person to shit on the Titans and the Colts.
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: However, they both crushed it. The Simpsons.
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: I loved it. I thought it was really really good.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I wonder how long the Titans can get away with
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: this though, where it still feels fresh and creative, where
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: they do the Man on the Street thing and they
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: did it differently than they did And the one that
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: was the best social media schedule release that we've seen
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: to date, the Man on the Street where they had
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: people guess what the logos were. This was a look
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: alike thing and with the who are You song in
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: the background, it was great. It was a plus. That's
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: what the schedule release to me should be all about.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Quick funny, shows you who the teams are playing insequential order, which,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: by the way, out there to social media teams, that
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: needs to be an industry standard. Show me in order
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: when these teams are playing their opponents. That's why you're
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: releasing the schedule in the first place. I don't want
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: scattered all over the place, tough to follow stuff, evan
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: any feedback on the grades handed out by Kendra.
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: If it's not in order, I don't know what we're doing.
• 4:22
  Speaker 6: I couldn't everything else Like I you know again, I
• 4:25
  Speaker 6: have to watch these videos. I trust you guys with
• 4:27
  Speaker 6: my life in terms of how these in terms of
• 4:30
  Speaker 6: how these because I have no idea, I believe you.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: But also they have to be an order.
• 4:34
  Speaker 6: If you're not giving it to me an order, then
• 4:37
  Speaker 6: you've lost the path, You've lost the way.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I have side. I shared this on the NFC
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: episode I've got my notes. I did half the teams
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: because I got bored with this project. But I would
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: do a very short description and then a grade, and
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: then why I gave them that grade, and then this
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: is like bullet point stuff. The bills were one that
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: stood out to me. It was a giant chrysalis. It
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: was Josh Allen in the corner of the marketing room.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: It was like the Skit was there at the table
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: trying to come up with an idea for the schedule release,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: and they've got a bunch of marketing interns and stuff
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: that are all spitting out bad ideas. And then Josh
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Allen's in the corner and he just says the word chrysalists,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: and then everybody starts to buy into his idea because
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: he's Josh Allen. And then the end of the video
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: is a barbershop quartet singing around a leaking chrysalis, which
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: it looked like a bad sci fi movie Kenjo.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Where do you land on the Bills and their usage
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: of their.
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: Star quarterback once again, I think that they just tried
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: too hard.
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: I think that that would be my piece, like.
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: I don't hate if you boil down the idea, but
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: it was just too you know what, I'm going to
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: use this to segue into my losers. It was too
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: above and beyond the average football consumer. I feel this
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: way about the Jets. I'm the average football consumer is
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: going to hate that the Jets did paint ASMBR because
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: it's too avant garde for a football consumer. I feel
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: the same way about what the Bills did. It's just
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: too creative for the guy who's sitting on his couch
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: on Sunday chugging bud Lights and probably eaten sausages like
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: it's too too much.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure they're drinking bud lights anymore, but.
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: I just whenever I think of a dude watching football
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: on their couch, I feel like they just have the meat,
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: sweats and drinking sauage.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: Wasn't the first meat? That wasn't the first meat that
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: I thought.
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: It really makes me miss the fall, to be honest,
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: for real, sausage and beer and that's it.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Crush some David Montgomery anytime touchdowns.
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: And just you know, colors literally fall.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: In a Sunday.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Uh, Jill, have you taken in any of these yet?
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Is there one that stands out to you?
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: Before we get to No, I have as much as
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: I love football, I do still like that I have
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: a life, So I have a life outside of football.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: And the second that I'm scrolling on my timeline and
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: I see that it's longer than two minutes, I'm like,
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: I'm out, Like I just need to know the schedule.
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: This is an SNL. You don't have to do a
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: sketch like you know what I mean. I just want
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: to know the schedule. You can make it very clear
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: and pretty Obviously, Kendrick did a lot of great work
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: for us to be able to do this research, so
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: I don't want to knock it too much. But at
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: the same time, I'm just a meat and potatoes guy.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: Just give me the schedule, sausage and beer.
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: Wait, we can't move on because we need to talk
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: about the largest loser.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we need the bad Ones. Can you start
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: with the Jags though.
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: Because that was the last thing I wanted to talk about,
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: unless we want to get at the Jabs at the
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: Patriots count because I counted them.
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: Houston's video also sucked. It was terrible.
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: However, the Jacksonville Jaguars did a video where Trevor Lawrence allegedly.
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: Shaved his head.
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: Last night in our group chat, I was bamboozled. I
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: thought that this was real, and Gifford was like, are
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: you serious?
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: It's ai or it's a wig.
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: And then this morning we get on here and Gifford goes,
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: do I need to eat crow for breakfast? Because I
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: think it's real. Where do we stand? Did Trevor shave
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: his head? I hope that he did, because I think
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: that this is like the ultimate or a farm.
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: You gotta you gotta let it go.
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: You gotta cut your hair. It's like when you break
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: up with a man and you like get bangs. We're
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: gonna win the dang super Bowl if this is real.
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: If it's not, I hate them forever and.
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: This is so evil.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Wait, my wife's just got bangs. Should I be concerned?
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Maybe think about that?
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: Oh god, I'm having an existential process for podcast. Yeah,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: we'll do that. That'll be the That'll be the bonus episode.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: Is I have? It's still married?
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: I mean each report that I'm reading is saying that
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: they cut his hair. I mean, I thought he cut
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: his hair a while ago, So I do.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: T I didn't they put out didn't they put out
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: a picture of him walking into the facility with a
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: haircute Kendrew.
• 8:54
  Speaker 6: I think this is possible because he's already gotten the
• 8:56
  Speaker 6: sides off and he already had a new duke, so
• 8:59
  Speaker 6: that might have been.
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: In press for this Lordklan cut they gave him in
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: the beginning was awful.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: What I need answers? I need to know.
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: I thought that it was real because his wife was
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: posting about it, and Gifford got got because they posted
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: a picture of.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: Him with short hair. At practice. I think it's AI.
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: I don't know shit about fuck, but I need to
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: know what is going on here because unfortunately, my mental
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: health right now depends on if a twenty eight year
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: old man cut his hair.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I think he got a haircut. I just don't think
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: he got that haircut. I think that's where I'd be a.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: Little more worried if it was tweeted out from like
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: Adam Schlechter or something like that, fake accounts or something.
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: But you just do a quick Google search and it's
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: pretty much everywhere now of different reports and publications saying
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: he coat his hair for the schedule video.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: It's not AI.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: So it's like, wow, okay, I.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: Mean, don Climban put it out there so you know
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: it's legit.
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: I lo, I literally bought him.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: Is there anything else?
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Kendro Before we get to Jill's meat and Potatoes?
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: Pause, the the Patriot count is to the Vikings cookie
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: recipe release had Rassini juice, which is officially why I
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: am anti.
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: Vikings forever for saying juice.
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: And the Chargers had next photo dump one mile for
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: their thing with the Patriots, so I counted to I
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: might have missed one.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Well, the New York Posts that they had the the
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: got a message from the New York Post. The Chargers
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: had that one as well, so we might be up
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: to three.
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm out on the Rassini juice. I'm anti j
• 10:30
  Speaker 5: word now.
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: No thank you.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Is this like an anti use of the word or
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: is there is there?
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: It's just like you know how people hate the word moist.
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: I think that I think that I now can no
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: longer use the word juice.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Just a little.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: We can't. We can't do Kyle yuscheck anymore. We can't
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: say juice. It has to be use check.
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: That's a great take, I think, so I think you
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: have to go full name.
• 10:51
  Speaker 6: Okay, put it in the past with OJE.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: That's where did put juice on pause for a minute.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: That's those are facts, okay, Evan spitting facts. I was
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: talking about the game that we're looking forward to the most.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go ahead and get the obvious one
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: out there. Week twelve, Sunday Night Football Chiefs Bills. Though
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I think I speak for the gallery when I say
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: I will miss I don't know, Jim, because this game
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: is going to be on NBC, so unfortunately we'll not
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: have nance and romo on Chiefs Bills, which feels like
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: a standard at this point, but.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: We're not getting that one.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Jille, what are we looking at AFC game that you
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: are looking forward to most?
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think I'm with you on Chiefs Bills.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: The game that I have kind of circled, and of
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: course it's selfishly because I'm thinking about it only from
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: a touchdown perspective. Is I really want to see if
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is rehabilitating enough where he's going to be
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: able to start in Week one, because if he isn't,
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: that means that Justin Fields is going to be starting
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: in Week one against a Broncos number one man coverage defense,
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: which is just completely suited for a scrambling quarterback. So
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: that is kind of what I'm looking at for Week
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: one where I'm if Mahomes doesn't play and Justin Field's
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: gets that start, that is a smash spot for any time. Touchdown.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Kendro, what about you? What are you circling?
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: I was also going to say early season Chiefs because
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: a lot of these games feel like their price for Mahomes.
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: You actually put that in our notes. I didn't even
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: see that until just now. However, I want to just
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: complain for a second. I hate the week one schedule
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: so much. When I was filling out our notes, I
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: was looking at you know, we talked about the things
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: get I was looking at all the holiday games, the
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: Thanksgiving games we talked about in our NFC episode. I
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: was going to try and shout something out week one
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: here other than the fact that I'm excited for the
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: Rams forty nine ers game. But we would have talked
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: about that in our other episode. But going through week
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: one in particular, I kind of hate it. I hate
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: the schedule for a week one I gotta be honest,
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: it's ass.
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: I agree for pmsleep.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: I told you, don't you kind of want to get that.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: You want to get the ass out of the way first,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: because it's week one, Like it's all good everything after
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: you you're you fasted for the day, and then you
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: just put anything in front of you in it. All right?
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: Would you rather end your fast with filet mignon or
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: week old chicken that's been in your fridge?
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously I'd rather end it with filet mignon,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: but but the but the week old chicken will never
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: taste better than it does after the fast.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: That's the that's the point here.
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: I think the hot take is this week one again
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: should be completely weird and different. Week seventeen and eighteen
• 13:26
  Speaker 6: both divisional leagues.
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, too many divisional games like early, I think. I agree.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: I just don't need it. I don't need it early.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Kendro's asking how I feel about the Dolphins schedule.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to spend much time on that at all,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: but I will say the most interesting game they have
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Dolphins go to Green Bay in week.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Fifteen Malik Willis.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: We'll see if he's still the starting quarterback by then,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: but going up against the team that let him go.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: Just had to slide that one in.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I got stuck on the Ravens schedule. Listen to this
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: stretch Week seven to Week ten, home versus Burrow at Buffalo,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: he home against the Jags in primetime, and then home
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: against the Chargers in primetime. That is a big stretch
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: right there, and Ravens games are always dramatic, So that
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: one stood out to me because some wild things probably
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: going to happen within that month of football. Evan, where
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: are you circling on the calendar for the AFC?
• 14:18
  Speaker 6: Yeah, two things. One Buffalo's beginning of the year schedule
• 14:22
  Speaker 6: at Houston versus Detroit on Thursday Night football. I think
• 14:26
  Speaker 6: both of those games are absolutely fascinating. I can't wait
• 14:29
  Speaker 6: for both of those matchups, and I might even have
• 14:31
  Speaker 6: a bet on one of them later. And the other thing,
• 14:33
  Speaker 6: the Chiefs having I believe the earliest buy in the AFC,
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: I think is an underrated thing to be discussed, depending
• 14:41
  Speaker 6: on where Mahomes is if that's a positive, and then
• 14:44
  Speaker 6: having to go the whole stretcher on, especially if they
• 14:46
  Speaker 6: don't get the buye with very little rest.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: You and I might I haven't looked ahead in the notes,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: You and I might have the same bet for Week ones.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: My plant the flag is going to be on the
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Bills Texans game. But the week after Week two, the
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Bills open up their brand new polished stadium against the Lions.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I think that's a buzzsolve for Detroit. That place is
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: going to be a mad house.
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: I don't know they'll have a cup holders this time.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Assuming they've added those, But that is one that to
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: me is like there's some games I try and circle
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: ahead of time and go just remember to be on
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: this team and no matter the state of Buffalo. After
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Week one, I think Buffalo. A Buffalo bet in Week
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: two against the Lions feels like a good look ahead
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: still to come. We've got our breakdown of our overs
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: and unders that we are smashing in the AFC. We've
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: got a way too early plant the flag bet. But
• 15:46
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• 15:49
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• 16:30
  Speaker 4: The crown is yours.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: We did this for the NFC, We're gonna do it
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: here with the AFC team that you feel like you
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: are going to smashing over on after the release scheduled
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: difficulty flow of the schedule, Kendra, is there a team
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: that you just cannot wait to bet an over on?
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: Who are we feeling overly optimistic about.
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: I've got two, and they both One of them sounds
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: less insane and one of them sounds insane.
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: But I like it better.
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: I like the Bengal over nine and a half minus one,
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: but I also love the Browns over six and a
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: half plus one oh five. I know that we don't
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: really know who the Browns quarterback is going to be.
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: I assume it's gonna be Deshaun Watson, but they had
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: a really good draft. I also hate DeShawn, but I
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: don't think it's probably the worst idea from a team perspective,
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: And I don't want to make dirty money, but sometimes
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: dirty money is still money. And I think that their
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: schedule is good enough that they could reach this.
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: I think that they could win eight games to be honest.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: Betting a Brown's over that is.
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: That is about my p words last year.
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: Don't even start with me.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: That is a rough wage you to make.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: And if that one felt rough too, and hey, I
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: got it. I did end up hopping on the sad
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Cat bandwagon, the Bengals one.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: I think I can get down with a nice patty
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: sad Cats.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: The problem is is that you have to bet on
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow not getting hurt and getting destroyed by that
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: offensive line.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: So that is the line. Statistically, let me be fair
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: about this.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Statistically was better last year than it had been in
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: previous years.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: But still Joey b finds himself on the.
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: Show is how much bad luck can he seriously continue
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: to go through?
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: Like Joel embiid, I mean, some of these guys just
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: stay hurt.
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: That's more. That's more mental.
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: I think I think that he's just kind of a coward.
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: But it's like the opposite of the Caleb Williams thing
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: we talked about, like how many times can he pull
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: a rabbit out of a hat? Well, how many times
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: can Joe Burrow? You know, realistically, that's just kind of
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: where I'm at. I'm like, you gotta gotta wait with
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: the good and the bad. There's got to be in
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: and yank for everything.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Jill had a nice little nod of the head when
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: you said bangles over the wind.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Total. What are we looking at, Jill or.
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: I want to address I want to address the luck
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: I guess from Joe Burrow because it's been pretty bad
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: luck like that toe injury, that's a pretty rare injury
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: for a quarterback in general. The appendicitis a couple of
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: years ago, the you know was it the wrist injury
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: again where they were in a game against thee the
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: stewers and just ramping them and then all of a
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: sudden he can't go back out anyway. Bengals, I am
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: all in on them taking I love their division odds
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: at two to one over nine and a half wins.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: My favorite one though, is the AFC Conference title bet
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: that's around twelve to one. And the schedule just completely
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: has worked out in their favor. They have a top
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: five friendly schedule this year and they might actually have
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: an average defense after ranking bottom five over the last
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: three seasons. Guys, last year, the Bengals allowed over three
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: hundred points over their final nine games. That is the
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: most by any team in that stretch since twenty twelve.
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: And now they've got Dexter Lawrence who should be an
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: instant difference maker in the middle. They had the highest
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: pressure rap for all defensive tackles in the NFL last year.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: And then of course from an AFC standpoint, I think
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: it's wide open, especially at the top. Like the Broncos
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: and Chiefs, both of their quarterbacks are coming off injuries.
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: The Bills and Patriots didn't really improve. The Patriots well,
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: I don't want to get into it, but obviously they
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: have a lot of offseason stuff going on, and there's
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: already some turmoil with the Ravens like Lamar Jackson is
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: being talked about this might be his last year in
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: Baltimore given his contract. Is that as well, And then
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: the other thing too with the Bengals. This is very
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: interesting from a schedule standpoint. They don't play primetime games
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: until Week eight, like all one pm Eastern starts week
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: one through week seven, So no primetime games or different
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: days that are gonna throw off the rhythm. Also, in
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: typical years when they would play like the Ravens or
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs, typically they were playing on the road, this year,
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: in Week fourteen and Week seventeen, they get those two
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: games at home. So when you cross reference like the
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: win totals, they're steamed to go over to ten or
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: more wins, and you're gonna need at least ten wins
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: to make the playoffs in the AFC. And then of
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: course Joe Burrow being put in this position is kind
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: of one of those few quarterbacks in a playoff position
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: that I would actually trust to win a game on
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: the road in the postseason because we've seen them do it.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: There's some of these quarterbacks that I don't feel great
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: about investing in at this time of the year. So
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: I kind of want to get ahead of the market
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: because right now, looking at the schedule, they've got the
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: Bucks in Week one and then the Texans in Week two.
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: That's gonna be a difficult game. But if they go
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: to and oh in those games, this is gonna plummet
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: because they got the Steelers in Week three with no
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: Tom win, a fifty year old Aaron Rodgers, like, I
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: think right now it's the time to invest into the
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati Bengals because they have invested. They're actually a team
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: that historically did not invest their top four and in
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: a salary cap right now that so now that you
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: could tell that they're kind of pushing their chips all
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: to the center, this is the time when you want
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: to invest in the Bengals.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: It is a nice bilo on Cincinnati.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: I personally like, if I'm betting Cincy, I want to
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: bet them to accomplish something in the playoffs, because if
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: you get this team into the Dance at whatever record
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: and Joe Burrow is healthy, I trust them to win
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: games at that point. I just don't like the idea
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: of betting a season long with a juiced number like
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: nine and a half, where I have to worry about
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow's health week in and week out.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: These are not sweats that I enjoy enough.
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: And I think that was the whole thing is cross
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: referencing the win totals like obviously minus one thirty if
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: you feel very confident, and I do, But at the
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: same time, if you're looking for a little bit more value,
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: I think the AFC North, given that the Browns might
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: still win seven games and finish last in the division.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: The Ravens, I feel, have not improved enough where they're
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: significantly better than the Bengals and then the Steelers I
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: think are going to drop off a cliff now that
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin isn't there anymore, So we're not going to
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: see anymore nine and eight Steelers voodoo kind of thing
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: that we see in some of these games. So I think,
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: if I'm with you, though, like the nine and a
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: half win total, that one doesn't appeal to me as much.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: I think it's the division and conference title that's where
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: you want to be looking at the Bengals at the stage, yep?
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Is that the one for you? Is that the one
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: that you're circling as far as an over goes?
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: Are you on from a win total standpoint?
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, from a wind total standpoint, I don't want to
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: breeze past that. Is there one that you really want?
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: Well, that's definitely would I would definitely do the nine
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: and a half because if I feel that confident about
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: them winning the division or even winning the conference title,
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: that none of that happens unless they win ten games.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: Evan, what about you and over that you're smashing after
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: the release.
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: Yes, this is a tough one for me. I kind
• 23:02
  Speaker 6: of want to bet the Chiefs early season, But again
• 23:05
  Speaker 6: with the questions around Mahomes easiest schedule in the NFL
• 23:08
  Speaker 6: first four weeks in terms of win totals Denver, Indy, Miami,
• 23:12
  Speaker 6: and Vegas and fourth easiest first nine weeks. It gets
• 23:16
  Speaker 6: much tougher second half of the season. So if Casey
• 23:19
  Speaker 6: starts out well, like I might look at first four
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: weeks undefeated or you know, last to lose a game
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: type bets early in the season with the Chiefs, if
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: obviously Mahomes keeps progressing. But I think the bet I'll
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: use here is the Ravens over Obviously, Jill just completely
• 23:35
  Speaker 6: went the other side. But that's why this podcast is
• 23:37
  Speaker 6: fantastic and we do what we do is I kind
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: of feel like Baltimore eight teams have a plus four
• 23:44
  Speaker 6: rest deferential and only two were in the AFC, and
• 23:47
  Speaker 6: that's the Ravens and the Bills. And I'm not the
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: biggest fan of Buffalo this year, but I do think
• 23:51
  Speaker 6: Baltimore gets some nice breaks. They got four games with
• 23:54
  Speaker 6: plus rest positivity. And also you look at every team
• 23:58
  Speaker 6: with a double digit win total, basically the teams with
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: all the expectations. Ravens have a pretty easy schedule of
• 24:03
  Speaker 6: that group, and I believe they face the easiest quarterbacks
• 24:07
  Speaker 6: of that group as well. So I think I would
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: plant my flag with Baltimore to get a bit of
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: a bounce back.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: They do have that tough stretch between about week seven
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: and week twelve, but Baltimore with an advantageous schedule and
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: improved defense, and we'll see what I mean. I'm so
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: curious to see what the what the head coach change
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: does for the Ravens and what it does one of you,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: I think it was Jill mentioned the voodoo with Mike Tomlin.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: What the scholars I think it's going on, what that
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: looks like.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about them in the in the
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: under section, uh tease ahead. Mine is the Jags favorable schedule,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: eleventh thesiast in the league. They get to start with
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the Browns dub tough road right after that. But I've
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: sold myself, Kendra. I'm curious to see if I can
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: sell you on this as well. As I've looked at
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: the Texans home game that's in London, and I understand
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: and why Jags fans would be bothered by this. You
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: have Eagles, Texans both home games that you're sending overseas.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: That's annoying for the fans.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I think it's less problematic for Houston than we realize
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: because that's the second London game. They get to park
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: in London and Houston has to make their way over.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: It's actually more advantageous for the Jags to play a
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: second London game already in London than to even be
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: in their home stadium, so that game tilts even more
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: in the favor of Jacksonville. And if we're splitting splitting
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: hairs as far as the total goes, I already like
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville over. I think they're gonna be really good this year.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: And uh and that Texans game is what sent me
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: over the top.
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: So I you guys know it's no Sea Jill. You
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: might not know this about me, but I hate the
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: International Games. And that's coming from someone who goes to
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: them quite often, and as someone who goes to them
• 25:56
  Speaker 5: quite often. I was there two seasons ago when they
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: played the back to back.
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: With the Bears.
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: First, they got the crap kicked out of them by
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: the Bears, and I went by myself, flew around the
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: world and was hammered off of Guinness screaming in the stands,
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: literally alone at that game, and then the week later
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: they played the Patriots and kicked the crap out of
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: the Patriots. So I do agree that it's advantageous. And
• 26:20
  Speaker 5: the fact that one not a lot of turnover on
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: this roster. These guys have been there, they've done that.
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: They do it every single year, so they've got the
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: schedule and everything in their routine under wraps. And two
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: being there longer and adjusting to the time.
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: Zone does help. It's just I hate these.
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: Divisional games abroad more than just games abroad, because you
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: are taking away the home crowd. As someone who, like
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: I said, have been to a couple of the London
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: games now, I just when I tell you it's a
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: circus of people in jerseys for players who just had
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: a cup of coffee with these teams. Nothing pisses me
• 27:01
  Speaker 5: off like it. Like the Jags are the London's team
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: and the stadium is still filled with people in Ryan
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: Leaf jerseys.
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: I just I can't. I hate it.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: You can get those on the super discount shelf. Get
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: the Ryan Leaf jersey. I hate it, seventy five percent off, Jill,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: what about you, Let's go under. So let's go the
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: other direction here. The teams that we are in cell
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: cell cell mode on.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: I would go with the Steelers, Like I know that
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: we're kind of probably lockstep on this. I think that
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: this is the final, the finally we can just get
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: rid of this team that just does enough to win
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: but is never good enough. Like as soon as I
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: think of that game against the Ravens last year to
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: win that division, I think that was one of the
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: more shitty games that I've watched, just from a result standpoint,
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: when Loop missed that field goal, because I was like,
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: now we have to watch this crappy Steelers team. Now
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: we have to listen about Mike Tomlin and this team
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: making the playoffs again and making all this happen, and
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: there was It was literally just a mistake by the kicker.
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: It had nothing to do with like Tomlin's voodoo and juju.
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: And just now that he's gone, I just want the
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: Steelers just to quietly go away for a few years, retool,
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: then maybe we can have a conversation about them being
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: invited back to the dance.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: YEP, I am with you one hundred percent.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I do not know how their win total over under
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: is eight and a half. I don't know how they
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: get here ro Rob Tomlins spots. They're over now. They
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: need Mike McCarthy's ar cakes schemes to get them over
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: the hump. Who knows what the quarterback situation is gonna
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: look like. If it's not Aaron Rodgers, what is it?
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: And if it is Aaron Rodgers, what is it? Because
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he's really all that good anymore.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: You have their first game is against Atlanta, so guys,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: we have no that's an auto l kidding first road
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: games of the year at Patriots at Cleveland. Cleveland is
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: a that's a tough place to play, no matter what
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: quality are.
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: Antride is a primetime as well, right, I believe it is.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: The Well let me look that up.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: So that would be I have all of the primetime
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: games here in front of me.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: It would be Monday night football, I believe.
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: And that makes a difference. Primetime makes a difference.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: I don't think it is.
• 29:15
  Speaker 6: No.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: I well, now I have to see it before I
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: continue on with my Steelers ran.
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: I could be wrong. I thought that it was primetime though.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: It is not. It is eight is a one pm
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: bestain time? Would that be two pm? Atlantic?
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: There's Jill, Yes, it would be Atlantic time zone, good math.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: That's the best of the best you'll find in the industry.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I think if you could overreact your way to a
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Steelers zero to six start, I'm just so down on
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: this team. But uh, Evan, what are you looking at
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: as far as the unders go.
• 29:49
  Speaker 6: Yeah, you guys are doing a good job because you're
• 29:51
  Speaker 6: taking some of the angles here. I liked Pittsburgh. I
• 29:54
  Speaker 6: assume someone is going to mention New England because I
• 29:57
  Speaker 6: think that is a good under as well. Just pairing
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: schedules from last year, this one's just really difficult. I
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: just don't see as many easy unders in these situations.
• 30:08
  Speaker 6: But I think Pittsburgh is a good call minus six
• 30:11
  Speaker 6: rest differential. I mean, me and Jill just laid out
• 30:13
  Speaker 6: why we like other teams in that division, and honestly,
• 30:16
  Speaker 6: we talked about Cleveland's over I kind of looked that
• 30:18
  Speaker 6: direction as well, like I feel like, I don't want
• 30:21
  Speaker 6: to say it, you know, and plant my flag on
• 30:23
  Speaker 6: the Browns, but if I'm seeing positive signs from the
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: other three teams, you kind of have to look the
• 30:28
  Speaker 6: under on the other side, which would be the Steelers.
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: So I agree there, and I mean I would say
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: the Dolphins.
• 30:34
  Speaker 6: But I just also feel like it's so bad in
• 30:37
  Speaker 6: that direction, and I've already done Arizona. You kind of
• 30:39
  Speaker 6: need to plant your flag on one of those two teams.
• 30:42
  Speaker 6: But minus thirteen net rest on Miami, it's the second
• 30:46
  Speaker 6: worst we've seen for any team since two thousand and
• 30:49
  Speaker 6: two division realignment, and the other team was a COVID year.
• 30:52
  Speaker 6: So minus thirteen net rest is an absurd number for
• 30:55
  Speaker 6: a team.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: I keep staring at this Bills number.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: They have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: and they have a new head coach. Let's not forget
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Sean McDermott is gone. If we're talking about coaching changes,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: you can't just assume it's going to be a positive.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: Joe Brady's never been a coach in the NFL. Their
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: win totals at ten and a half, with a tough.
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: Schedule, and the division is ass.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: That's the problem. I'm I'm just seeing if I could
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: talk myself into it. I'm not sure that I can,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: because you could just you can see they're sitting on
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: ten and then with a couple of weeks left, and
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: then they get to eleven and boom. Your bet is dead,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: So I don't think I was successful in talking me
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: or anybody else into that.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: Kendra, talk to me about it under I.
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: Think that my favorite bet I have given out in
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: either show might be the Chargers to miss the playoffs.
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: The Chargers have.
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: I honestly think that they might if just This might
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: even be biased because I think Justin Herbert has a
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: negative clutch gene.
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: But I think that this is the hardest schedule in
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: the NFL.
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: Even when you consider the preseason, which a lot of
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: people don't, but you still need the preseason to get
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: your players acclimated. They're injured, They're going to need to
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: get people some reps. The question comes, Okay, are you
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: going to play your starters? How much are you going
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: to play them their preseason games if they want to
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: get their starters some reps Texans forty nine Ers Rams,
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: and then just an absolute gauntlet of a schedule after that,
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: I do not see. I mean, you could the nine
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: and a half win total, you could go the under
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: on that, but I like them to miss the playoffs.
• 32:25
  Speaker 5: I think that there's better value and I think it
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: gives you more opportunity.
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: But their schedule is freaking gross Man.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna as that's a that is a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: I think that's a sharp look, and that's that stretch.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: After Week two, Buffalo at Seattle home against Denver at
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Kansas City at the Rams home against the Texans at
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: the Ravens, their season could be toast before we even
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: get ourselves to Thanksgiving.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: Jill, you're gonna say.
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: Some, well, I kind of wonder if you could maybe
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: even like, obviously we could bet it now, but I'm
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: wondering because of the fact that they're playing the Cardinals,
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: they're playing the Raiders, Like, let's just be real, they're
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: probably going to go to and zero in those games.
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: They're going to get a nice little shine from that.
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: Maybe you might be able to get a little bit
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: better a price of making the playoffs after those two games,
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: because then the rest of the schedule is just a gauntlet,
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: right because right now I think they're like plus one
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: sixty plus one seventy. You know, if they win those
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: two games, that's probably going to go up to like
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: plus two twenty five. Then maybe we can double down
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: on it as well.
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: The issue with that, my worry is I don't know
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: what the status of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: going to be those first games, so I think that
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: how healthy they are and whether they start does give
• 33:39
  Speaker 5: a little bit of a bump.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, I know. I think Alt what I read
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: is fine. Slater is the one that I'm a little yepff.
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: And they're both still questionable on the depth chart, and for.
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: That is I don't it's yucky. I don't like it.
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: Even if those first two games are easy, quote unquote,
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: it's the NFL easy, plus, you know, opening schedule stuff
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: always gets a little wonky.
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: I think this is the most valuable part of doing
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: a show like this is the notes that you can
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: write to yourself for how you should be reacting a
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: couple weeks into the season, because it's so easy to
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: get drunk on results after we watch them. We talked
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: about this in the NFC episode. The Saints have a
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: really tough start to the season at Baltimore at Detroit.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Betting an over or a division on the Saints after
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: week two because they're most likely going to start zero
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: and two is a smart way to think about it.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: We need reminders, We need to set up calendar things
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: to circle back to these during week X.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, exactly, Chargers under after week two or Chargers yep.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: This needs to be an apparatus.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Can we get we can get production, Evan, maybe you
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: could create like I can figure this out, like a
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: private portal for us bet reminders. This would be great
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: content in the middle of the season. Like, hey, remember
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: in May when we said bet the under on the Chargers.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: I like this idea. Let's run with that.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Let's get to our plant the flag bet presented by DraftKings.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: The crown is yours way too early. Look at the AFC, Kendre,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: you already teed it up, but you want to go
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: ahead and double down on your AFC.
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going Chargers to miss the playoffs. I think
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: that this schedule is disgusting. I think that they need
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: to have some hard conversations. And last year I won
• 35:35
  Speaker 5: my bet for them to make the playoffs because I
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: was very much in the camp justin Herbert just needs
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: to get you there.
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: I don't think that he.
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, I know that he's never won a playoff game,
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: and I'm not sure that that's going to start this season.
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: I'm going to continue negative clutch gene doesn't exist Charger
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: schedule too hard for mister perfect Haar and Madison Beer.
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: He's too focused on music videos these days.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Ko Don, I'm gonna save Evan for a moment because
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: I'm curious to see if him and I end up
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: going head to head here already in May, let's go
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: to Jill for your plant the flag bet.
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll go big game hunting. I'm taking the Bengals
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: to win the AFC at twelve to one. I think
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: this is the time when we want to grab them,
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: and after week two when they are two and zero,
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: because they are going to beat the Texans and the Bucks,
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: it's going to be a nice little straightaway for them
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: to be able to potentially win the AFC North. But really,
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: I just want the Bengals to get to the dance because,
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: as I mentioned before, Joe Burrow is one of the
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: handful of quarterbacks that I do trust that can win
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: a road game for his team.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Kendra and Jill taking the wide view in our schedule
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: release episodes, Evan and I are firmly focused on Week
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: one of the NFL season, already pouring through these lines
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: and these totals. I'm on the Texans plus one and
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: a half at home in the Buffalo Bills.
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: You're on the Jags and the Texans home dog with
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: the distinct home field advantage last sixteen sixteen home games.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: For the Texans their above league average in terms of
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: their home field advantage numbers. I think people are going
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: to overrate the DJ Moore signing early on and neglect
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: the fact that Joe Brady is coaching his first game
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. Take the home dog, Texans plus one
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 37:28
  Speaker 6: Talk to me, Evan, Yeah, you're right, I did it, Texans.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: I liked it as well.
• 37:34
  Speaker 6: I was waiting for It's like minus one oh five
• 37:38
  Speaker 6: on the money liner right now, you got to pay
• 37:39
  Speaker 6: some juice like minus one twenty two minus one twenty
• 37:42
  Speaker 6: change on plus one and a half. I'm good with either.
• 37:44
  Speaker 6: I probably would prefer just the money line at that
• 37:46
  Speaker 6: price to save a little juice on that. So I'm
• 37:49
  Speaker 6: with you, Texans. I agree with everything you said. I
• 37:52
  Speaker 6: just feel like it's priced a little bit differently or wrongly,
• 37:55
  Speaker 6: and I kind of like Houston in the spot. One
• 37:57
  Speaker 6: thing I will say with the Chargers stuff not ten,
• 38:01
  Speaker 6: twelve and fourteen. They have a minus three rest differential
• 38:05
  Speaker 6: in all four of those games within that small of
• 38:08
  Speaker 6: a window in the second half that is like absolutely
• 38:11
  Speaker 6: terrible and brutal. So you could even wait on that
• 38:14
  Speaker 6: Charger stuff and it might get bad late.
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Yep, that's uh.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: If you want to bet at now plus one forty
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: to miss the playoffs, but we're looking after week two,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: that could look mighty nice recap for you. Kendra's onto
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: the Chargers to miss the playoffs at plus one forty.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Jill Gallant is on the Bengals to win the AFC
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: at twelve to one, and Evan and I handshake agreement
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: in May.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: Let's go.
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: Okay, I have one last thing, even money. Trevor Lawrence haircut,
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: yes or no?
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: Podcasts.
• 38:49
  Speaker 6: I haven't even seen the video yet.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: It's yes, okay, then it happened or that he's gonna
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: get Are you.
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: Yes or no?
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: Did he or didn't he?
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: Did he?
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna say yes, I'm gonna go. Yes, I'm gonna
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: go now, I'm gonna go.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: Truther Kravitz, I think he got his haircut. I'm saying yes.
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: Oh my god, I can't believe it.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Eventually, Eventually, we all, we.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: All Eventually, the hairline, the hairline gets it. Makes me
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: feel so much better as an aging man to see
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: that Trevor Lawrence even succumbed to the scissors and the shave.
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: Uh.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Texans plus one and a half, by the way, is
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: the bet that Evan and I are on all thanks
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: to Draft Kings. The Crown is yours. That'll do it
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: for this week, fun stuff breaking down the NFC and
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: the AFC after the schedule releases. Thanks so much to
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Joe Gollant for joining us as our special guest in
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: the last two episodes Statsound, Evan Abrams, our producer, Gifford Gold,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: and the one and only Kendra Middleton. The Favorites will
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: return next week and as always, you can catch it
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: right here on the Action Network YouTube page. We'll see
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: you next time on the Favorites presented by Draft Kings.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: The Crown.
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler