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The Rounded Number: Chaos, Attractors and the Limits of Prediction

An energy trading desk wants fifteen-day weather forecasts, and a vendor's AI model promises them. Forecasting head Cosmin Abara asks applied mathematician Leilani Voss whether there is a fundamental limit. In episode one hundred and sixty four we follow chaos from Poincaré's recalled prize memoir to Edward Lorenz typing 0.506 instead of 0.506127, from the butterfly-shaped attractor to Robert May's one-line population model and Feigenbaum's universal 4.669, measured in a cell of liquid helium. We learn why the Lyapunov exponent makes predictability grow only with the logarithm of measurement…

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