Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | I Hate Week 1 | MLB & NFL | 9/14/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | I Hate Week 1 | MLB & NFL | 9/14/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: In your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: this mad.
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me now.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: hold on Let me pull you out That fellow fights
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: hard But he don't get the crown Hold on, hold on,
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: It is Monday, September 14th. We went 2-2 on the
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: show yesterday. Week 1 NFL, not exactly great. It's never
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: really that good, although I think I'm 8-7 in the pick-em...
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: league overall that i'm in right now which is about
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: par for the course for me in week one but
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: carolina did not get it done that game was just
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: outrageous just carolina had way too many turnovers and that
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: definitely was part of the reason why they uh failed
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: to win and failed to cover uh again the bears
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: winning the turnover margin pisses me off man um I
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: think after that, though, the Bears are going to just
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: be overvalued still going into the next game. Oh, my God,
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: they put up 59 points. Yeah, okay, but their defense
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: was still total ass. I mean, the game was like 31,
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: what was it, 31-31 at halftime or something? It was ridiculous.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: One of the highest scoring games you'll ever see. I
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: don't know what else to say about it. Just the
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: defenses did not even show up in that game on
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: either side. I have nothing else to say about it.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: It's just ridiculous. The baseball card went pretty well. Both
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: overs hit. Although Anaheim-Washington was not looking great, but part
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: of the handicap was those bullpens are not good, and
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: the bullpens got us the over there. The bullpens did
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: not do well in that game. We got a lot
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: of late runs in that game to push that thing over.
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: And then Cincinnati did not get there, even though they
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: won on the full game. So that really irritates me.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: And again, it was a situation where Burns got kind
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: of unlucky. I think he was in there longer than
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: three innings this time, if I'm not mistaken, and it
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: got to a point where they were losing the game
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: like two to one, and he'd only given up one hit,
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: but he'd allowed two runs. I mean, yeah, I don't
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: know what else to say about it, and then the
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: Reds win in the full game. There was no way
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: I was going to be backing the Reds' bullpen, so whatever,
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: and then the other over was really easy. Seattle and
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: the A's, that game flew over the total pretty easily,
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: so That was a good call. We move on today.
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: It is what it is. Pick the wrong NFL games.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: Some of my other opinions were correct in the NFL,
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: of course, but we do have a play in the
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: NFL game tonight, which I already gave out, although I'll
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: reiterate it once I get to it. I'm going to
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: give out one baseball play here as well. We have
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: a Monday somewhat shorter baseball card here. White Sox and
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: Cleveland will be the first game up. This is a
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: big series. I mean, this is Potentially going to decide
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: the division as Cleveland is only a half game out
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: right now behind the White Sox. Both teams are going
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: to have to show up for this, although Cleveland is
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: returning home from a road trip. They just beat the
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: Twins in their most recent series. Too serious road trip.
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: You know, I always say it's difficult to return home
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: from the road. You got to get back to home life.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: It inevitably becomes a distraction, at least to some extent,
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: even if this has to be a focus spot still
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: for Cleveland because they are facing the White Sox. But
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: it's still more of a negative spot for them. than
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: it is for the White Sox. The White Sox traveling
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: in mid-road trip from losing in St.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: So the White Sox probably potentially going to be in
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: more of a bounce-back spot here, I would say. However,
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: the pitching matchup definitely favors Cleveland in this one, though,
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: even though the spot does not. Cleveland, I believe, also
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: has the better bullpen. They used three guys out of
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: the bullpen yesterday. White Sox used two. Cleveland is number
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: 10 in bullpen right now, arranged by whip. That's pretty good.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: White Sox number 15, although both ERAs are actually pretty good,
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: so these are both decent bullpens here. Cleveland is the
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: worst offense. They're number 29, arranged in OPS, arranged by OPS.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, White Sox are 13th, tied with Atlanta and
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: the Yankees right now. However, the White Sox do have
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: a bullpen game going on here. Sean Newcomb is listed
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: as the opener here again. I think if you're going
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: to play this game, I think you should pick Williams
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: must start for Cleveland, but don't pick a starter for
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: the White Sox because It'll probably be Newcomb in for
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: the first inning or two, but we don't know exactly
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: what they're doing here. Newcomb has actually been pretty good,
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: and he has good numbers against Cleveland, but he's not
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: going to be out there for that long. So if
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: you want to try to gauge what you think the
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: White Sox are going to do here, you can go
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: five games back and try to figure it out. The
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: White Sox have not been playing good baseball recently, though.
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: If you go back and look, it was actually Davis
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: Martin pitched in the game five days ago, so is
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: he actually going to pitch today?
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: Um.
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: Probably not, because they haven't had any days off since then,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: so he'd be on like four days rest. So my
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: guess is that Martin, yeah, Martin's pitching tomorrow. I was
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: going to say, yeah, I think he's pitching tomorrow. So yes,
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: it'll be a bullpen game for the White Sox here.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: But like I said, Cleveland will have Gavin Williams pitching.
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: And I think they might have done this intentionally. Like,
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: let's push Williams back to the White Sox series and
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: have him pitch in a more meaningful game here. So
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: Williams has a couple extra days off here. That might help.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: Maybe it'll make him a little bit fresher because he
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: is a hard thrower. He gets a lot of strikeouts.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: But pitchers like to stay on schedule, too, so maybe
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: moving him back a little bit maybe throws him off
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: a little bit, potentially. Williams, good season, though. 3.78 ERA, 1.09 whip.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: He's got a 3.01 home ERA. He's good at home.
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: He's been racking up a ton of strikeouts, double-digit strikeouts
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: in three of his last four outings. The outing where
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: he didn't was absolutely atrocious, though. against Anaheim. I have
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: no idea what that was, but he bounced back very
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: nicely in his last two starts. He's been facing weak
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: offenses over the last few starts, though, but Cleveland is also,
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: or excuse me, yeah, wait, he's on Cleveland, what am
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: I saying? Yeah, the White Sox will be a little
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: bit of a step up offensively from that, but he
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: is typically good against the White Sox. They have 73
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: at-bats against him, a 219 average, 625 OPS, 26-8 strikeout
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. So I do think Cleveland is probably still
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: the correct side here, although I don't really want to
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: back them in a return home spot. 66% of tickets,
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: 95% of the cash on them. They moved up from
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: minus 137 to around minus 150 on the money line.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: So some money is definitely coming in on Cleveland, but
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: it's kind of pricey. I would say you might be
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: able to get away with laying the Cleveland money line
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: if you get it below minus 150. Playing a minus
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: one run line with Cleveland is not exactly something I'd
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: really want to recommend because they're not a good offense.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: But I don't love playing these teams returning home from
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: road trips anyway. The total's really low. It's seven, so
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: it's expected to be a low-scoring game. But, I mean,
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: I don't know about the White Sox having a bullpen
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: game here. They're really going to be able to hold
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: Cleveland under, although Cleveland's offense is bad. The money is
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: coming in on the over in that one. Do what
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: you want with that. I mean, probably the best way
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: to lean in that game is still actually Cleveland. Just
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: the matchup might wind up mattering more than the situation
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: in that one. But I don't know, man. I don't
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: love that game. Dodgers at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is returning home
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: from a road trip, so I think they're in a negative. However,
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: they did just go to L.A. and get swept there.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: So L.A. might not take Cincinnati totally seriously here either. However,
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: when we see what L.A. just did the last couple
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: of days, they may actually just show up for a
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: game to try to win a game. Cincinnati just beat
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: the Brewers yesterday, as I mentioned. They're returning home from
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: the road. They will not have Chase Burns on the
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: mound this time. So when it's not him, they're typically
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: going to lose. And, in fact, they lost five games
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: in a row prior to yesterday. Return home spot. Usually
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: it's a negative spot. Like I say, you've got to
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: return to home life, even if you are going to
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: try to get up for a series against the Dodgers,
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: who also just swept you during that road trip. It's
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: still going to be tough to get back home and
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: deal with all that, and the Reds aren't going anywhere
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: this year. Reds are going to have to put in
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: an effort after winning the game yesterday. That was a
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: big win for them against Milwaukee. L.A. lost two games
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: in a row, and like I said, I thought they
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: were going to lose yesterday because they lost a win
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: streak in the previous loss. And usually that can tend
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: to result in a hangover spot when you lose a
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: win streak. A lot of times you can effectively lose
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: the same game twice, but it also looked like a
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: pitching matchup that actually did favor Miami yesterday, and that
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: is what happened. So it's possible the Dodgers are kind
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: of in a bounce back spot here coming off that loss.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: The Dodgers definitely have the pitching matchup edge in this game.
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: Dodgers used four relief pitchers yesterday. They have the better
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: bullpen as well. Cincinnati used two. Dodgers are number 12
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: in bullpen here. Cincinnati number 25. So Dodgers win in
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: that department. They obviously have the better offense as well.
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: They're number two. Cincinnati number 24. And the Dodgers have
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: Scooble on the mound, so obviously they have an advantage
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: here too. 2.84 ERA,. 97 whip. He's been good, obviously.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: He's been good with the Dodgers since coming over from
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: Detroit as well. He's been good on the road. A 2.09
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: road ERA. Yeah, I mean, obviously, the assumption would be
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: he's going to pitch well again. He hasn't allowed more
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: than 300 runs in any start since coming over from Detroit.
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate. All those numbers are good. Scooble against... Cincinnati
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: is also really good, and 57 at-bats, 140 average allowed,
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: 407 OPS, 19-4 strikeout walk ratio. So those are pretty
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: dominant numbers there as well. So again, I would expect
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: that he pitches well here. Nick Ludolo pitching for Cincinnati.
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: He's been better throughout much of his career than what
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: he's done this year. I don't know if there are
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: injuries going on here lingering from last year or what's
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: going on here, but he's had a bad season. A
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: short season, though, I think. I don't think he's pitched
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: the whole season. 5.12 ERA, 1.53 whip. Not exactly good
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: at all. He is a little bit better at home. 4.5
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: home ERA, even though Cincinnati's a more hitter-friendly ballpark. Lodolo's
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: got some issues, though. A lot of walks recently. That's
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: a problem. He was mediocre against the Dodgers last time.
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: He kind of held them in that game. At least
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: actually the bullpen came in and actually held the Dodgers
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: down for the rest of that game. I don't know
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: how that happened. But Lodolo's allowed too many hits here.
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: His walk rate's not really good either. His strikeout rate's
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: not that good either. So these numbers are not good.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: Two strikeout walk ratio, 7.5 Ks per nine. A lot
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: of these numbers are worse than what last two seasons
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: were his two full seasons. He pitched pretty well in
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: those seasons, but this year, yeah, not even close. His
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: numbers against the Dodgers after last outing against them got worse,
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: so they're pretty mediocre at best at this point. 63 at-bats,
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: 270 average allowed, 765 OPS, 19-8 strikeout walk ratio. So
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: that is not good, obviously. Scooble, by the way, with
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: his overall stats, and we don't really need to go
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: into it, but he's got a 6.8 strikeout walk ratio.
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: That is really good. 10.6 Ks per nine, also really good.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: We know he's good. I mean, you got Cincinnati in
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: a bad situation, plus L.A. also has the pitching matchup
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: bench throughout this game. The only way to really look
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: at this game is to find some way of playing L.A.,
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: but you have to pay a huge price if you're
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: going to do it. I would not play the money line.
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, minus 230-something, unless you're going to do something
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: like money line parlay it with something else. I guess
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: that would be an option. Option's a little bit limited today, though.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: 91% of the tickets, 92% of the cash on L.A.
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, I guess this might be a situation where
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: you could maybe justify laying the minus one and a
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: half run line with the Dodgers here because they will
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: at least bat in the ninth inning guaranteed because they're
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: on the road here. So maybe that is an option
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: in this game is to lay the minus one and
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: a half with them here. It seems like there's basically
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: no advantage for Cincinnati in that game, though. So but
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: you have to pay for it, obviously, if you want
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: anything to do with L.A. in that one. By the way,
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: Williams for Cleveland, I forgot to go through the fact
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: that he has a 4.3 strikeout walk ratio this year,
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: which is the best he's ever posted, and 12.1 strikeouts
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: per nine. So he's really had a breakout season this year,
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: even though he was already decent, but Williams has reached
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: another plane this year, just pointing that out. All right, Detroit-Toronto,
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: this is actually going to be my one baseball play.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: I need some water here. We're going to take Detroit
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: on the money line in this one, man. I think
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: Detroit is going to be more motivated than Toronto potentially here,
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: although both teams need to keep winning if they're going
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: to try to make the playoffs. Toronto is like right
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: there near that last wildcard spot, but I think people
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: kind of know that and think, well, Toronto must win,
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: whereas Detroit is like out of it basically, but I
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: don't know, man. I think the spot favors Detroit, and
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: I think the starting pitching matchup favors Detroit. Toronto just
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: had a big divisional series against the Orioles. They knocked
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: the Orioles back to three games back of them, and
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: if that series went a different way, Baltimore could have
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: actually jumped Toronto in the standings and been right there
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: in the wildcard race there, whereas now Baltimore looking like
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: they're kind of in trouble here, whereas Toronto is looking
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: pretty good right now. Toronto could be in a letdown
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: spot off of that, man, even though Detroit is technically
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: still in the wild card race. And I know Detroit's
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: not that good on the road at all. Although Toronto
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: is not exactly a dominant home team either. So Detroit
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: they're on a roll right now though. They just swept Colorado.
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: So they do have some motivation right now. I know
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: it's only Colorado and they suck, but I think the
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: spot sets up a lot better for them. Starting a
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: road trip with momentum here. Usually that is a very
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: focused spot. And maybe Detroit has a little bit of
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: confidence here thinking maybe we could still do something here, man. Uh,
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: keep winning and just see what happens. So I think
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: Detroit can actually kind of play looser here because I
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: think the pressure is kind of on Toronto here. Toronto
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: basically must win, you know what I mean? Because it's
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: sort of between them and Cleveland at this point for
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: that last wild card spot, or I guess the White
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: Sox if they fall behind Cleveland here. Although Texas, I guess,
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: is still kind of in that mix too. But yeah,
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: people are going to look at this game and basically,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: I think the public is going to think, well, Toronto's
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: got the better record. It looks like kind of a
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: cheap price on Toronto. We know they need to win
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: this game to stay in the wildcard race, whereas nobody
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: is really talking about Detroit at this point. But yeah,
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: I think that makes Detroit kind of a sneaky play
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: here in this one. We are going to roll with
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: the bullpens here as well. I think the bullpens are
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: on sort of even footing statistically, but Detroit only used
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: two relief pitchers. Destinane Toronto used five. Toronto's bullpen has
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: been really used the last couple days. They had a
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: bullpen game on Saturday, and they won the game, and
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: I gave them out as a play on Saturday. But yesterday,
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: they used a bunch of relief pitchers as well. So
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: their bullpen kind of in trouble here, even though their
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: closer didn't pitch yesterday. But their bullpen is definitely the
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: less rested of the two here. So I think we're
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: back Detroit in the full game here. We get them
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: as a nice underdog here. Detroit's No. 16 in bullpen.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: Toronto's No. 17 here. They're really close. Toronto does have
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen ERA. But like I said, I think
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: the rest kind of shifts the bullpen edge a little
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: bit towards Detroit. I like the situation and the pitching
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: matchup better for them as well. And Detroit has the
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: better offense too. They're number 17, so they've been hitting
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: a little bit better again recently. They're tied with Kansas
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: City and San Francisco, although I know that doesn't make
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: them seem that good. But Toronto's really weak offensively. They're
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: number 27 offensively. Detroit's going with Troy Melton here, and
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: I think they've given him like one extra day off
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: or something in here. Melton has been pretty good for them. 2.42 ERA, 1.05 whip.
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: He's been really good on the road. 2.06 road ERA.
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: So he's better on the road. His current form, yeah,
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: is a little bit questionable, but both games are against Minnesota.
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: And remember what I said when I tried to back
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: Joe Ryan in that last game and we wound up
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: losing the game and Minnesota lost the game by one.
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: But remember what the handicap was. It was that Melton
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: has done well against literally everybody except Minnesota. Now is
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: the case that he has three starts on the season
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: where he's allowed more than 300 runs. All three of
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: them were against Minnesota. So against everybody else besides Minnesota,
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: he does way better. I don't know why, but Minnesota
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: seems to have his number, and they kind of did
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: in that game too. So I would not actually say
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: that he's in bad form currently because both of those
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: games came against what seems like his kryptonite, the Minnesota Twins.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Everybody else seems to not be able to hit him
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: very well. He's got a low hit rate on the season,
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: low walk rate. His strikeout rate's not good, though. He
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: doesn't strike anybody out. 2.9 strikeout walk ratio. Given how
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: low his strikeout rate is, though, 7.3 strikeouts per nine,
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: that strikeout walk ratio's not really that bad. Melton is
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: also facing a weak Toronto lineup here, and they've never
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: seen him before, so I think that's an extra advantage
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: to Melton. A pitcher like him, where he's facing a
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: weak lineup that's never seen him before. Like I say,
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: I think that's an extra edge to that young pitcher
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: who has never been seen before by that offense. I
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: think the pitcher can tend to have the upper hand there.
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: And we're going to fade Jose Soriano here as pitching
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: for Toronto, even though he's been pretty good this year. 3.48 ERA, 1.28 whip.
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: He's not as good at home, though, and that's been
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: the case throughout his career. Although his numbers are not
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: really that extreme this year as far as the splits,
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: but 3.61. home ERA. He's in okay form recently, except
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate's been really low, though, and his walk
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: rate's been slightly high, so he's posted kind of a
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: bad strikeout walk ratio recently, even though Toronto's won his
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: last three games, but the last two of them came
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: on the road, where he just, for whatever reason, tends
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: to pitch better. One was against Cleveland. He actually wasn't
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: really good in that outing either. He didn't make it
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: five innings against a bad Cleveland offense, and then he
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: did pitch fairly well at the A's stadium last time out,
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: which is a good sign for him, but he's still
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: not exactly lighting it up here recently Soriano is hard
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: to hit though he's got a low hit rate his
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: walk rate is pretty high though like that's his problem
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: he's very wild and his strikeout rate is decent but
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: he's got a 2.2 strikeout walk ratio because his walks
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: remain an issue man he's wild 8.5 strikeout per nine
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: is not bad but the walks are a concern, and
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: against Detroit, he has not been good. He has 36
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: at-bats against them, 306 average, 776 OPS, 10-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: So Soriano is in the lesser of his home road
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: splits here. Melton is actually in the better of his
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: home road splits here, and Melton has the unfamiliarity edge here.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: I think he's been the better pitcher this season, and Soriano...
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: Even though he's the better strikeout pitcher, he's more wild,
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: and he's got bad numbers against Detroit. And I think
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: the situation and bullpen edge actually go, the rest edge
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: go to Detroit here as well, bullpen rest edge. So
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: we're going to do it. Toronto looks public here, 70%
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: of the tickets, 65% of the cash. They're just sitting
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: around minus 130, whatever. So it looks like the market
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: read is saying to play Detroit here. That is what
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: we're going to do. The total is also low at 7.5.
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: Money coming in towards the over, though. It does seem
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: like more of an under game to me. I mean,
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: you're looking at two offenses that really are not really
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: lighting it up, and both pitchers have generally been good.
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: So the under probably makes more sense there than the over,
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: but Detroit is obviously my play there. All right. Baltimore
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: at the Mets. This one was a consideration for me.
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: I like Baltimore in this one. The Mets are returning
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: home from the road. They just had a big weekend
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: series against the Yankees they won one out of the
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: three games the other games were somewhat close they lost
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: the other two games by two runs each they did
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: get shut out yesterday but still that was a big
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: series for them against the Yankees you know a team
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: like the Mets they're not going anywhere they'll get up
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: for a game for a series against the Yankees they
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: may not get up so much for a game against
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: the Orioles you know what I mean plus it's a
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: return home spot so that's a negative spot for the
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: Mets having to return home it could be a distraction
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: here even though It isn't really a travel spot, though, obviously,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: because they're already in New York. So that's the thing
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: that kind of that's one thing gives me a little
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: bit of pause here. That's not really a return home
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: spot because you could have you could argue the return
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: home spot was actually from that quick series against Miami
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: because they came back to New York after that. So,
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: you know, a series against the Yankees. It's not like
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: the Mets are going to stay in a hotel. Right.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: Like these guys are probably just going home and they're
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: going to be at home during that series, you know.
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: So it's not really a return home spot, though. So
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: that's one thing that gives me a little bit of
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: pause as far as fading the Mets here. Baltimore might
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: show up for this, though. They're coming in from Toronto,
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: so their travel's a little bit worse. But they just
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: lost two games pretty badly to the Blue Jays, and
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: they're hanging by a thread here, Baltimore is. So they
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: have more reason to be motivated here, at least, because
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: they're trying to stay alive. And I think Baltimore does
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: have the starting pitching edge in this game as well.
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: They do not have the better bullpen. Baltimore doesn't, but
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: they only used two guys yesterday. The Mets used two
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: as well, though. So the Mets do have a bullpen edge.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: The Mets are number seven in bullpen. Baltimore is, where
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: are they, number 11. I mean, neither bullpen is really
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: that bad, though. Baltimore is the better offense, although neither
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: offense is really very good. Baltimore, number 22. They kind
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: of sold off at the trade deadline as well. Of course,
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: we know Rutschman went to my Boston Red Sox. Toronto's
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: number 20, or excuse me, not Toronto, the Mets are
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: number 25 in offense. Brandon Young is getting the start
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: for Baltimore. I think he does have the upper hand
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: in this matchup. He's been okay this year, 3.71 ERA. 1.35
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: whip is not really that good, though, but he is
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: actually a little bit better on the road. 3.39 road ERA.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: Last start was pretty ugly, though, at home against Cleveland.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: That's not a great sign. Looks like he's falling out
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: of form a little bit here after he had a
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: few good starts in a row, including... Against the Red Sox.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: Although the Red Sox wound up winning that game anyway.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: But last time out. Bad start against Cleveland. They're not
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: a good offense. So that is not a good sign
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: for Young at least. Young his hit rate is a
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: little bit high here. His walk rate is not really
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: that good. His strikeout rate is pretty low. So those
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: numbers don't look good. 2.2 strikeout walk ratio is not
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: very good. 7.2 strikeouts per 9. Also not that good.
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: So advanced analytics will not like him.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: However.
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: However. I believe he is decent against the Mets. Yeah,
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: he is. And 17 at-bats, not a huge sample, though.
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: They have seven hitters who have faced him. 235 average allowed,
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: 669 OPS, 5-2 strikeout walk ratio. I still think Young
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: is the way to look in this game, though. And
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: I think, you know, at the very least, the Mets
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: could be in a hangover spot after that huge series
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: against the Yankees. So I still think the spot favors
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: Baltimore here, and the starting pitching does as well. The
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: Mets are going with kind of a wild card here, though.
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: Jonah Tongue. He's a very young guy, and we still
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: don't exactly know how good he is. He has a 4.8
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: ERA this year, 1.33 whip, but he's only made like
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: four appearances, so we don't really know. He finally made
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: a five-inning appearance last time out. I think he was
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: in the minors for the majority of this year, and
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: then they brought him back up when September happened. Of course,
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: they called him up. September call-ups. He was somewhat okay
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: in that game against the Marlins. He gave up four runs,
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: but he got kind of unlucky because he gave up
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: four hits in five innings, one walk, seven strikeouts. That's
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: actually not a bad pitching line. So Tong might actually
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: be okay. We don't really know yet, but last year
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: he wasn't really that good, though. He made five starts
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: last year for the Mets, and this year he's only
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: made one start, which I believe was that September appearance.
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: His other appearances this year came out of the bullpen.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: But yeah, last year, he was a bit walk heavy
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: last year. Also was actually too hittable as well. So
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: last year he wasn't really that good. But of course,
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: you never really know with a guy as young as
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: he is. He's 23 now. So sometimes these guys will
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: be shaky. Maybe if they get brought up to the
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: majors too early or whatever. But how much do we
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: want to trust him here? I don't really know. Baltimore
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: has never seen him before. So he does have an
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: unfamiliarity edge against Baltimore here. So it is possible that
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: he does pitch well here. against an offense that hasn't
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: seen him, that is not the greatest offense here. So
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: what do we do with this game? Well, I'm passing it,
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: but I think Baltimore first five is still the right
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: way to look at this, and the money seems to
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: agree with Baltimore generally. Although the Mets being favored gives
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: me a little bit of hesitation on that. The Mets
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: did drop from minus 135 to minus 120, but if
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: you think about what is the public going to think
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: about this, they're going to think, how am I getting
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: Baltimore as an underdog here, right? Don't you think that's
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: what they're going to think? Like, Baltimore's the team that's
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: still not dead in the playoff race here. They have
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: a better record than the Mets, so it's like, how
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: are they an underdog? It seems like that might be
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: the mentality. However, we have 51% of the tickets on
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: the Mets, 57% of the cash on Baltimore. And given
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: that I do think it's a hangover spot for the Mets,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: given that I think Baltimore's pitcher is probably the better
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: one in their current state, even though he wasn't good
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: in his last outing, Yeah, I think Baltimore first five
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: is probably what I would do. I wouldn't go full
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: game because I think the Mets do have a bullpen
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: edge here. The money's also backing the over eight here.
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: It's a low total, though, and I don't know. To me,
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: this seems like more of an under than an over.
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: I think both pitchers actually might have an okay matchup here,
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: so I don't know. The under makes a little bit
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: more sense to me than the over in that one,
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: but that is not a game that I want to
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: really get involved in. Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Yeah, fuck
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: the Bears, obviously. I'm still going to be fading them when,
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: when the spot makes sense. I don't give a shit.
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: It probably makes sense to fade them in week two.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: Although I don't think that's, that one's probably not going
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: to make the cut for me. I got to start
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: looking at week two. Although I do already have a
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: game that I think is going to be a play
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: for me in week two. So, um, you know, I,
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: I gauge overreactions to week one and people may very
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: well overreact to the bears. The bears are still not
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: a good team. So whatever, fuck them. Atlanta at Chicago.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: This is, Show was already taking way too long for
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: a Monday slate of games here. Oh, my God. The Cubs,
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: they're staying at home. They did just lose to the
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: Pirates yesterday. That was another thing that I got correct yesterday.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: I was also right about the under in the Red
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: Sox game, by the way. Peyton Tolley, immaculate first inning,
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: by the way. And he started laughing when he knew
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: that he had one more strike to get, and then
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: he did it anyway. I love that guy, man. And
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: then An inning later, he ran to cover first base
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: and didn't get the guy out, and he hugged the
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: umpire after the umpire made the safe call. I mean,
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: Toley was going to kind of run into him, so
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: he had to stop his momentum, but he hugged the umpire.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: I'm like, man, yeah. Toley is like, I don't know, man.
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: Regardless of who you root for or whatever, the Yankees
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: fans are going to still find reasons to hate him,
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: but there's no reason to hate this guy. He's one
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: of the most likable guys out there. Totally, so I
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: don't know. I love that he's on my team, but whatever. Anyway,
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: I was right about the Pirates getting the win yesterday.
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: I think I said first five, though, so I don't
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: know if I was right about that. Let me see. No, actually,
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: I was not. The Pirates actually were losing. They were
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: winning 1-0 into the bottom of the fifth, and then
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: they gave up two runs, so the Pirates would have
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: lost the first five playing devastating fashion, and then they
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: scored immediately in the sixth inning and won. That's ridiculous. Anyway,
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: Cubs are staying at home here Braves are coming in
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: from playing the Phillies I believe Braves took a loss
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: yesterday now they're starting a road trip could be a
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: focus spot for the Braves starting a road trip I
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: feel like both these teams are going to show up
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: you know I mean although Chicago's virtually locked into a
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: wild card spot here but I think they still need
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: to try to land above Philly in the standings Atlanta
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: still has some reason to play as well I mean
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: they're still trying to stay ahead in their division and
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: whatever both teams probably have reason to just fight against
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: each other you know what I mean it's a big
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: series um survivor pick jacksonville was mine it was an
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: easy advance though and uh like a third of the
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: third of the pool got knocked out in week one
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: or 27 got knocked out by the chargers oh my
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: god um yes i was on jacksonville i don't want
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: to take the steelers man i mean i had some
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: concerns about that um No, I mean, that's not a
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: good enough reason. Like this team is bad. It's not
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: a good, not a good enough reason. I thought the
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: Falcons would cover the six and a half and they
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: almost did. The Falcons hate is, is way overstated, dude.
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: Like I said, and the fact that they're down, downgrading
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: their quarterback by going to Cooper rush. I'm not even
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: sure that that's a downgrade. I thought that that was
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: an overreaction in the market.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: I'm, I would not have played the Steelers, although I
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: guess it was a decent play because their remaining schedule
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: is not really that easy. So it was a fine play. Jacksonville,
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: I think, was the way to go because really Jacksonville
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: has no other week where they're going to be really
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: survivor worthy except when they host Tennessee in week 12.
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: So I was like, no, let's just take Jacksonville here.
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: a really good chance to win and they're not really
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: that usable in the future. So, and I'm not high
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: on Jacksonville this year. So that was the play. I
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: was also worried about the Steelers in week one because
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: Rogers had not played in the preseason. It's like the
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: Steelers offense really was humming yesterday. So yeah, I thought
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: the Falcons would cover that number. Um, so I was,
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: that was not one that I was really interested in
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: and survivor very much at all. I think the Steelers
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: are probably overpicked and survivor actually, but, You won. I
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: probably should have taken the Raiders. The people that took
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: the Raiders, they made out the best in Survivor because
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: the Raiders wound up winning pretty easily, and they're not
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: going to be usable again. So that was actually the
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: best play, but it was so risky, man. But, you know,
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: I guess Ballsy, although I thought it was kind of
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: stupid to take the Raiders.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: Whatever.
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: I mean.
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: No, I don't know. I mean, Atlanta, whatever, their pass rush, whatever.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think you kind of escaped with that one.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: It was definitely a valid survivor pick, I will say that.
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: But I did not think they were going to cover
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: the number. I did not think the Steelers were going
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: to cover that, and they barely did. Although they did
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: cover the earlier numbers a little bit easier, but yeah.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: Atlanta and the Cubs, MLB Network, big series here. This
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: is not exactly a great pitching matchup here. And it's
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: a high total here that leads me to believe that
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: maybe the wind is kind of blowing out in Wrigley
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: here today as well. Although the pitching matchup is not great,
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: but I still think the total would be lower if
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: it wasn't for the wind. I already went over the
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: situation here. I think both teams are going to be
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: motivated here. Cubs used three relief pitchers yesterday. Atlanta is
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen. Atlanta used three as well. Ronaldo Lopez
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: will be pitching here for Atlanta. Oh, yeah, let me
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: get through the rankings here. Atlanta is the number two
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: ranked bullpen. However, yeah, I think they're number three or
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: four in reality. But yeah, they're definitely a good bullpen.
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: The Cubs are decent. They're number 13. So we have
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: two okay bullpens here. Well, one good one and one
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: decent one. The Cubs are number one in offense still.
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: Braves are number 13, tied with the Yankees and the
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: White Sox. So two pretty capable offenses here as well. Lopez,
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: like I said, pitching for Atlanta. He has not been
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: that good this year.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: He was.
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: Really good a couple years ago, but I think he's
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: had some issues, man. Injuries and whatever else, age, something
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: going on here. He's definitely not that good right now. 4.13 ERA, 1.39
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: whip is not that good. He is a little bit
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: better on the road in some ways, 3.45 road ERA,
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: but his opponent batting average on the road is actually worse.
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: Did not pitch well at all last time out against
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. Gave up a lot of runs, a lot
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: of hits, a lot of walks. Did have good strikeout
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: numbers there, but everything else was pretty bad there. Three
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: of his last four starts have been really ugly. The
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: only good one was a five and two-third inning shutout
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: at Baltimore. So I'm not going to say he's in
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: good form right now because he is not. And the
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: Braves have lost four of his last five starts or
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: four of his last five outings. His hit rate's not
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: very good. His walk rate's not very good. His strikeout
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: rate is okay. He's got a 2.2 strikeout walk ratio,
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: though that's not very good. 8.4 strikeout per nine is
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: all right. Lopez against the Cubs. It's going to be
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: a difficult matchup, I think, for him here in this
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: type of stadium and this type of lineup. However, the
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: Cubs actually have not done that well against him. 41
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: at bats, 220 average. They've had a little bit of
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: power hitting off him to get their OPS up to 701,
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: but that's still not very high. 12 to nine strikeout
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, so maybe it is actually a decent matchup
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: for Lopez, but I don't really think I trust him here.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: You know I don't trust David Peterson either. He's pitching
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: for the Cubs. He's got a 5.28 ERA, 1.58 whip.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: Obviously bad stuff here. He's been a really bad home pitcher. 6.44
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: home ERA. A lot of that was with the Mets
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: though earlier this year, but he's not pitching well recently either.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: He's had an 8.7 strikeout walk ratio this month so far.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: And he's got a 7.88 ERA this month. Didn't make
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: it five innings in either start. However, both of them
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: were against Milwaukee. But it's not like Atlanta is that
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: much of a reprieve from Milwaukee. You know what I mean?
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee is probably the better of those two offenses, but
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: it's not by that much. So I still don't think
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: Peterson is going to have an easy time here exactly.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's pitching well right now. His hit
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: rate is too high on the season. His walk rate
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: is too high on the season. His strikeout rate is
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: not really that good. If the wind is blowing out,
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: He might take advantage of that, or he's not going
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: to get hurt by the wind blowing out that much
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: because he gets a lot of ground balls, so he's
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: not really that much of a home run pitcher, but
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: he's still not a good pitcher, man. And Atlanta, I mean,
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: they've been okay against him at 140 at-bats, 250 average,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: 723 OPS. They're definitely familiar with him because he was
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: on the Mets for a long time. 43 to 15
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. What do we do with this game?
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I mean, it seems like an
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: over to me. I don't think the money is agreeing
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: with that, though. Let me see. No, it actually is.
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: 54% of tickets, 94% of the cash on the over.
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: The total's 9.5, so like I said, it's a really
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: high total here, which I think means the wind is
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: blowing out, but I think you got, at best, questionable
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: pitching here. Even though they both have okay matchup numbers,
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure that that's enough, so It is a
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: high total, though. I don't really want to do it.
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: But I think if I was going to play this game,
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: I would play it over the total. 55% of the
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: tickets are on Chicago and 80% of the cash on Atlanta.
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: So the money is backing Atlanta here. I mean, you're
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: getting the Cubs are a favorite with Peterson on the mound.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: So I probably do agree with Atlanta as well. The Cubs,
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: you know, minus 130 something here. I don't think Peterson
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: should really be a favorite like that against a capable team.
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: Lopez is actually probably the better of the two pitchers.
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: His matchup numbers are a little bit better as well,
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: and Atlanta's got the better bullpen as well, so Atlanta
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: is probably the side I would lean to there as well,
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: but I believe I prefer the over there. Yankees and Minnesota.
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: I looked at this pitching matchup, and this looked like
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: an over to me. Maybe it will be. I mean,
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: Minnesota tends to play high-scoring games at home, and their
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: pitching isn't very good, but I don't know, man. It's
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: not going to be one that's going to make the
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: cut for me because it's Both matchup numbers are going
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: to be, both pitchers have decent matchup numbers, I should say.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's coming off a pretty big series against Cleveland, although
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: they did lose, and they're staying at home here. Minnesota's
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: going to be in total desperation mode here, whereas the
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: Yankees coming off a nice series where they beat the Mets.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: They're having to travel. It is the start of a
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: road trip, so usually you are focused when you start
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: the road trip. I don't know what the hell this was.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: Legionella bacteria found in Yankee Stadium cooling tower. Okay, whatever.
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to affect the team in
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: any way. I wouldn't imagine. Plus, they're leaving, so whatever.
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: Start of a road trip, usually a focused spot, but
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: Twins staying at home. Yankees coming off a pretty big
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: weekend series. It's always big when they play the Mets,
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: even if the Yankees are the better team, whatever. I
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: don't know if the Yankees are really going to have
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: that much focus on Minnesota here. Minnesota will be in
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: more desperation mode here, and the Yankees at least have
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: a vulnerable pitcher on the mound here, so I don't
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: think I'd really necessarily, I don't think I'd want to
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: play the Yankees here, at least, I'll tell you that.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Yankees do have the better bullpen, though, and it's not
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: even close. Yankees used three relief pitchers yesterday. Minnesota used
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: three as well. The Yankees are number three in bullpen,
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: but they're number two in ERA. So actually, they're really
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: number two in bullpen because their whip is the same
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: as Atlanta. So Yankees number two in bullpen right now.
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: They're one of the top bullpens. Minnesota's not close. They're
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: number 28, so a huge bullpen disparity here. Both offenses
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: are pretty good. Minnesota is number 10, tied with the A's.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: Yankees are number 13, tied with the White Sox and
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: the Braves. So we do have some capable offenses here,
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: and we have some pitching that is not great with
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: Will Warren on the mound for the Yankees. 4.05 ERA, 1.36 whip,
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: although he's not exactly bad. He's just not as good
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: as the rest of the Yankee starters. He's not really that...
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: good on the road either, 4.3 road ERA. I tried
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: to fade him by way of the over in his
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: last game, and he actually pitched really well against Colorado,
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: so that sucked. The Yankees put up their runs in
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: that game. We could have gone over if Warren was
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse than that one, but it didn't happen.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: Is Warren actually good? No, but two of his last
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: three appearances have been good, and the other one was
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: just cut short for whatever reason. So he actually is
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: in okay form right now. He does have a high
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: hit rate on the season, though his walk rate's nothing special.
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is decent. He's got a 2.9 strikeout
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. That's all right, 8.9. strikeout per nine is
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: all right so yeah i would say yeah just he's
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: a mediocre pitcher overall but he's been pretty good against
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: minnesota they have 18 at bats against him which is
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: not a lot seven hitters have faced him but they
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: only have a 167 average 500 ops against him five
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: strikeouts no walks and they have one extra base hit
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: which is a home run from larnock against him so
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: warren may actually still pitch well here he's in decent
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: form at least and he has a decent matchup here
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: at least a lot enough i would really fully trust
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: him i don't trust dean creamer who's pitching from minnesota
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: here 5.65 era 1.3 whip at least does indicate his
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: era should be lower than that and he is slightly
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: better at home 5.2 home era but he spent most
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: of the season with baltimore then he came over to
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: minnesota and he was good in his first two starts
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: but since then he hasn't really been any good Last
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: outing was okay against Detroit, so maybe he's slightly coming
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: back into form here, but I don't really trust him much.
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is just okay. His walk rate is okay.
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is okay. So yeah, he's a mediocre pitcher.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: I think he is at least better than his ERA
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: makes him look. 2.8 strikeout walk ratio, 8.7K per nine.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: Those are okay numbers. Creamer against the Yankees. is actually
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: not that bad, an 86 at-bats. They've seen a bunch
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: of him because he was on Baltimore, but he's actually
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: been okay against them. 233 average, 717 OPS, 20-5 strikeout
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. So, yeah, this game's not going to be
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: a play for me. I still think it feels like
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: an over, though. Like, it seems like you have pretty
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: questionable pitching throughout this game, except that the Yankees' bullpen
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: is good. 60% of tickets on the over 95% of
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over totals at 8 which is
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: a pretty low total for a home game in Minnesota
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: really but both pitchers have decent matchup numbers here so
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: I don't really want to do it maybe again I'm
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: too autistic where I don't have things all lining up
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: in my favor here Yankees have had the money come
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: in against them on the money line they have 82%
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: of the tickets on them 52% of the cash on
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: Minnesota Yankees are in the minus 130, minus 120-something range
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: after they open minus 141. It does look too easy
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: to play the Yankees, right? Like at minus 120, it's
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: like basically pick the winner. It does look way too
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: easy to play the Yankees. If you're going to take Minnesota,
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, I might slightly agree with that, but I
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: would say only take Minnesota in the first five. I
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: would not take them in the full game. Their bullpen
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: is way worse than the Yankees. So those are my
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: thoughts on that. I still lean over in that game
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: for the most part, though. I don't know, man. Week two,
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: I haven't really looked at it yet. Tampa Bay might
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: be a possibility in week two. They're at home against
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: somebody bad. I think Cleveland. Let's just take Cleveland's opponent
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: every week. I don't know. Tampa Bay is one of
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: the options this week, but I haven't really... I have
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: to do more research on it. You know what I mean?
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: I have to see what the... future schedule it's a
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: you know you got to see what the future value
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: is for each team like that matters you know what
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: i mean you want to take a team that does
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: not have that much future value you need to weigh
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: three things you need to weigh how heavily is this
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: team being picked by my opponents how likely are they
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: to win and how much future value is there you
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: have to find a balance between all three of those
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: you know what i mean unfortunately the jags were the
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: second most popular team in week one But the number
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: one most popular team lost, the Chargers. So that definitely
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: helped me out a bit in that one. It's like
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: a third of the pool got knocked out already. And
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: I'm in one of the big ones on Splash. So
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: I would like to win. The prizes are in the
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: millions in these games. So I'm not in the $ 21
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: million one. It was a grand buy-in, and Massachusetts doesn't
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: allow you to do it. Basically, Massachusetts has a $ 1, 000
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: deposit limit on Splash per month, and I'd already deposited
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: some money in the last month, so they didn't let
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: me do it. Total bullshit, man. Total fucking bullshit. So
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: I had to get into the 3 million survivor instead.
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: So that's what I'm in. But, of course, it's not
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: likely I'm going to win, right? Because literally the whole
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: prize pool just goes to the winner, or if everybody
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: that's still alive gets knocked out in the same week,
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: it gets split between those people. But still, I would
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: love to win that money, man. Yeah, Texans. I forget
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: who they're playing. The Texans are going to be in
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: a fade spot. They just had a huge opening game
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: against Buffalo, so I don't think I really want them. Situationally,
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: I think Tampa Bay is in a much better situational
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: spot coming off a loss where the... You know, they
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: didn't really play that well yesterday against Cincinnati.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: And I was correct about the Cincinnati lean. What do
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: I want to do here? Not quite in an hour yet,
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: let me say. San Francisco, St. Louis, this is a
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: game neither team's going anywhere. So, like, what do we
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: do with this game?
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: St.
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: Louis just won against the White Sox, though. So they
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: kind of played spoiler against the White Sox a little
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: bit there. Are they really going to get up for
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: a game against the Giants? I don't know, man, but
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: the Giants played the night game, remember? That was a
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: big series for the Giants against San Diego, and they
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: were competitive in the series, and they got swept anyway.
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: They lost yesterday by two. Kind of brutal, man, because
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: I think San Francisco wanted to win those games in
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: that series, and they fell short, and now they have
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: to travel. It is the start of a road trip.
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: It usually is a focused spot, but I also... like
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: to fade the teams that played in the night game
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: because it's a big spotlight game. It was a big
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: game for the Giants against one of their division rivals.
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: They have a short turnaround time to have to travel here,
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: whereas St. Louis I think is just staying at home.
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: So I think the spot is a negative for the
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: Giants here, so I would probably be leaning towards fading
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: the Giants in this one. Let me see. Giants used
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: two relief pitches yesterday. I do not like either bullpen here. St.
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: Louis used to as well. I think the Giants are
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: actually the better bullpen here. St. Louis is number 22,
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: Giants number 24, but the Giants have the better ERA.
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: So I think the Giants are probably the better bullpen here.
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: Giants might be the better offense too, as bad as
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: I think they are. They're number 17, tied with the
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: Tigers and the Royals.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: St.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: Louis has been pretty weak offensively. They are number 26.
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: So I think the Giants actually have a couple of
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: edges here in this one. Do they have the starting
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: pitching edge, though? I'm not so sure about that. Landon
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: Raup is pitching for them. He's been mediocre. He's got
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: a 4 ERA, 1.28 whip. He's not as good on
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: the road. 4.28 road ERA. But the thing is, he's
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: not that easy to hit. He walks way too many guys, dude.
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: He's a guy that has a crazy curveball, and that's
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: how he gets most of his outs, his breaking stuff.
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: He's not really that hard of a thrower, but he's
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: way too wild. Although over his last few starts, he's
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: been decent. He hasn't allowed that many runs. And his
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: team has won his last three starts, and he shut
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: out St. Louis for six innings in his last start
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: at home. But that means St. Louis did just see him.
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: But I think they're already kind of familiar with him.
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: Raup has a low hit rate, but his walk rate
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: is too high, as I was alluding to, and his
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate's not really that good. So strikeout walk ratio
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: is actually really bad, 1.9. That's not good. He's got
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: to figure out this walk issue, man. 8.3 strikeout per
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: nine is not that bad. Raup, he will be in
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: a pitcher-friendly environment here at St. Louis, but St. Louis
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: has actually hit him fairly well. 28 at-bats, 286 average,
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: 751 OPS, three strikeouts, five walks, so I think they
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: might be able to hit Raup, even though he pitched
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: well last time against them. He's not as good on
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: the road, and he does not have good matchup numbers here.
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: Quinn Matthews is kind of a wild card. He's pitching
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: for St. Louis here. He's a young guy. I think
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: this is his rookie season. Yeah, it is. He's got
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: a 4.11 ERA, but his whip is not really good. 1.5.
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: He is good at home, though. 1.59 home ERA. Last
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: couple starts were pretty good, although his strikeout walk ratio
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: leaves something to be desired, though, in his last two starts.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: His team lost both of them, but he only allowed
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: three total runs. Across those 11 innings. So he's not
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: exactly pitching bad. The last one was against San Francisco.
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: So that might be a little bit of an edge
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: to San Francisco's offense, though, because Matthews was a guy
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: that they had not faced before. You know what I mean?
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: So a lot of times that unfamiliarity is helpful to
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: that pitcher the first time. And now that San Francisco
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: literally just saw him. They're going to be more familiar
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: with what he throws now. Matthews has been a bit
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: too hit heavy. He's also allowed too many walks, but
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate is okay. So I think he does
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: have some talent here, but he's putting way too many
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: guys on base. He's got a two strikeout walk ratio,
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: and again, his whip indicates his ERA should be higher
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: than it is. 8.2 strikeout per nine is not that bad.
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: His numbers against San Francisco were actually not really that good.
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: In 20 at-bats, 250 average, 918 OPS, even though overall
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: that last start looked okay against them. These numbers kind
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: of suggest otherwise. A 4-2 strikeout walk ratio. I think
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: maybe the over is actually a possible way to look
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: at this game. although it's a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but the
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: money seems like it agrees with that. The total is 7.5,
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: which is kind of ridiculous. It might be 8 at
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: some spots, but 7.5 is what you get in a
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: pitcher's duel type of matchup. Is that really what this is?
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: Raupe against Matthews, and you're putting up a total of 7.5
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: with some bullpens that aren't really that good? I think
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: the over is worth consideration here. 50-50 on the tickets,
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: 93% of the cash on the over. But again, the
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: odds makers are kind of telling you they think it's
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: going to be a low-scoring game. They're not throwing money
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: away by putting a 7.5 up there. I just think
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: that there's really not a lot of leeway there, and
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: given how questionable the pitching is, in my opinion, in
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: this matchup, I think it has a decent chance to
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: get over the total. It won't be easy, but I
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: think it might be able to get there. The money's
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: also back in San Francisco. I do not agree with that.
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: 64% of the tickets on St. Louis, 94% of the
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: cash on San Francisco. Raup is the more proven pitcher,
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: so I will agree with that, but I don't like
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: the spot for San Francisco, you know what I mean?
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: They might have the better bullpen, though, so maybe a St.
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: Louis first five play is worth consideration, but part of
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: it is because St. Louis is favored by a lot here. Like,
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: minus 140, does Matthews really deserve to be favored by
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: that much? Probably not, so maybe that's why the money's
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: coming in on the Giants here, but the Giants are
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: in a tough spot. As I mentioned, having to turn
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: around and travel after that huge series and playing the
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: night game last night. So, I don't really love the
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: game at all, but I don't know. I mean, I
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: think my best opinion there is still the over, but yeah.
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: You've got my best play of the day. I do
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: have one more opinion that maybe is a little bit
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: stronger than the others, but you got my one play
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: of the day as well. I do have a play
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: in the NFL game. I'm going to take a break.
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: I'll be right back. Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: We are on an 0-7 run over the last two days.
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: After tonight, it was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5.
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing,
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4,
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: and Have not had a good season, man, with weekends. Slump,
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: then I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: March 8th, is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after...
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: The worst day that I could possibly have. Back with you,
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: as I always am. Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday.
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: And yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5. The
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: worst month that I've ever had in my 18 years
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: Don't even know what I should do at this point
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: other than potentially end it all.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: Speaking of that San Francisco-San Diego game, San Diego is
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: coming off that night game and having to travel into
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: elevation into Colorado. So it's a negative spot for San
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: Diego off of that night game. Coming off a pretty
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: big divisional sweep there. And San Diego... is I believe
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: like two games ahead of Arizona now or something in
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: the wildcard race. So San Diego, I believe, is hanging
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: on to the last wildcard spot right now. Could be
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: a letdown spot for them going into Colorado. The problem
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: is Colorado's returning home from a road trip. And, you know,
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: I think that's a negative. So they were in New
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: York and then Detroit. They lost every game on the
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: road trip. Returning home, I don't think is going to
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: help them. So, you know, like especially a bad team
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: like Colorado, I think the return home spot is a negative.
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: So I think both teams are in negative spots. What
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: the hell do we do about that? What do we
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: do with this game here? Well, it's not exactly an
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: elite pitching matchup here, I'll tell you that much. San
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: Diego will have the better bullpen here. That's not really
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: in question, although they did use five relief pitchers yesterday.
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: So their bullpen sees some usage here recently. Although I
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: think Miller at least had the day off yesterday after
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: he pitched the prior two days. So they had to
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: close out the game with some other guys. Colorado used
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: four guys yesterday out of the bullpen, though. They're a
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: bad bullpen. They're number 27. Padres are number six, however.
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: I think they're a top five bullpen, as I keep saying.
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: Colorado is the better offense. They're number five. San Diego's
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: number 23, but Maybe the offenses are going to show
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: up in this one. We're in Coors Field here. Casey
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: Mize is pitching for San Diego. He's had a good season,
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: but it was mostly with Detroit. 3.7 ERA, 1.11 whip.
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road. 4.25 road ERA. Mize, though,
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: he's not really been that good since joining San Diego.
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: Since joining San Diego, his ERA is in the 6s.
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: So yeah, that's not good. He's struggled, man. He's got
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: 22 strikeouts and 10 walks, I think is what his
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: ratio is here. That's not really that good. So he's
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: not really pitching that well. His last couple starts were
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: pretty mediocre. All those command numbers are okay over those
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: two starts, but I don't think he's really fully trustworthy
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: right now. His hit rate is all right. His walk
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: rate is good. He doesn't really walk many guys, and
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate is all right. So his strikeout walk
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: ratio is pretty good at 3.7%. 8.1 strikeouts per nine.
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: So that's not bad, but his numbers have been worse,
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: like significantly worse since joining San Diego though. So I
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: don't know what the deal is, but yeah, not really
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: good with San Diego. And then the question is how
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: home run conducive is he? Well, he's a pretty extreme
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: fly ball pitcher. Hasn't really allowed that many home runs,
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: but he might not be that good in course field here.
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Colorado are, They're mediocre in 19 at-bats.
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: 263 average allowed isn't really that good. 684 OPS is
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: not really that high, though. So they actually haven't really
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: hit him for power. Five strikeouts, no walks. But Mai's
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: current form in Colorado, I don't think I really fully
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: trust him. And I don't trust Sugano on the other side.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: Tomoyuki Sugano pitching for the Rockies. Advanced analytics guys are...
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: You know, they're partying because they got it right that
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: this guy was going to regress, and that has definitely happened. 5.3
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: ERA now, 1.34 whip, not really that good, although it
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: does kind of indicate maybe his ERA should be a
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: little bit lower than that. He's actually slightly better at
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: home somehow, 4.96 home ERA, but he's been pretty bad recently,
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: although he's going somewhat deep into some of these starts still,
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: but he's allowed five or more runs in all but
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: one start going all the way back into mid-August. So, yeah,
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: he's not in good form right now. He's got a
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: high hit rate. He allows a lot of home runs,
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: which part of that is because he pitches in course field,
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: but that's still not good. He's very fly ball heavy.
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: So both pitchers are fly ball heavy pitchers here. His
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate's very low. His walk rate's not really that
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: good either. Well, actually, I keep saying that, but his
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: walk rate actually isn't that bad. 2.5 strikeout walk ratio,
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: given how low his strikeout rate is, isn't that bad. 5.5
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine. Yeah. Not good that he doesn't strike
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: guys out, although he doesn't really walk that many guys.
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: Sugano against San Diego. He's been good against them in
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: 33 at-bats, 212 average allowed, 576 OPS. That's not too bad,
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: but I still think the over might be the way
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: to look in this game. I think you're looking at
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: two struggling pitchers right now. I don't really, yeah, I
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: don't love the pitching that's going on here, and the
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: money seems to agree with this. 52% of tickets, 71%
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the over. I feel like I'm
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: saying over a lot in some of these games, but
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: that's the way that it is. If you can find
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: the 10 and a half, it's more preferable than the 11, obviously,
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: because the 11 is a key number. Every odd number
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: is key in baseball totals because some team has to win.
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: So you got to break the tie. But yeah, if
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: you can find it over 10 and a half, that's
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: probably the way that I lean there. Even at the 11,
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: probably I would still lean that way. I don't really
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: want to do it though, especially because the matchup numbers
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: for the starters are actually not that bad. So if
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: they were bad, I might actually be considering doing this,
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: but it's not a play for me. Money is also
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: back in Colorado. 86% of tickets on San Diego, 54%
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Colorado. It kind of makes sense
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: given that San Diego's in the quick turnaround spot of
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: the night game, but I don't want Colorado either in
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: the return home spot. You know what I mean? I
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: would just leave it alone. The return home spot makes
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: me worry about Colorado's offense, actually, a little bit, given
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: that sometimes when that happens, the offense can kind of
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: slow down a little bit, having to change time zones
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: and whatever's going on there. So I don't know about that.
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: If you're going to take Colorado, which I'm not recommending,
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: but if you're going to do that, the money does
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: agree with you. And I would say only do it
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: in the first five because their bullpen is obviously at
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: a huge disadvantage there. All right, Seattle and Anaheim. Anaheim's
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: returning home from a road trip, cross-country, going back to
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: the Pacific. time zone. You know I talk about how
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: difficult that is. They just got swept in Washington, but
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to bounce back at home,
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: even though the Mariners theoretically are a team they would
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: get up for because the Mariners are kind of still alive.
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: I think the Mariners' only shot would be probably winning
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: the division at this point, but Yeah, even though the
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: Angels might be able to play spoiler here, very, very
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: difficult spot. Having to return home from the road can
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: be a distraction, plus having to go east to west
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: and readjust to the Pacific time zone. You know I
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: talk about how difficult that is. And they're going to
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: have to adjust to playing a game. It's going to
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: end at midnight East Coast time, so that's kind of
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: a problem. So I do not like the spot for
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: Anaheim here. Seattle's in the much better situational spot. They're
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: staying in California. They were up in Sacramento, so yeah,
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: they've got to travel down south, but they're staying in
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: the same time zone. They just lost to the A's,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: which is totally embarrassing. We had the over in that
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: game right on the show yesterday. We also had the
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: over right in the Angels game yesterday. Angels also had
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: a close game in that game yesterday against Washington. But Seattle,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: they've got to be embarrassed, man, losing two series to
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: the A's over their last three series. I mean, what
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: are you doing, man? Like, Those are supposed to be
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: the series where Seattle is supposed to catch up because
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: they get to win some games against the A's. Not
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: so much. So you've got to think Seattle is going
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: to be in a more motivated spot here. I mean,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: you cannot let that stand. Problem with it is the
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: more established pitcher is on Anaheim's side here. Anaheim has
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: their best pitcher pitching in this game here, and I
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: don't really want to fade him. Anaheim used three relief
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday. Seattle used four. Both bullpens have not been good, though.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: Seattle is number 20. Anaheim is number 23. Seattle is
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: the worst ERA. I'm not sure that Seattle is actually
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: the worst bullpen here, but neither bullpen has been good,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: so they're both pretty unbackable here. Offensively, neither team has
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: been good, though. So if you're thinking the under, I mean,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: you might still be able to get a full game
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: under here because these offenses are putrid. Seattle number 28,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: Anaheim number 30. So two of the worst offenses in baseball.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: Cade Anderson is getting the start for Seattle. He's been okay.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's a rookie, so he's really young. He's 22,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: so you've got to give him a little bit of
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: leeway here. He was dominating in AA, but like I say,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: Seattle skips AAA because it's a high-elevation place, which I
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: don't think they should do. I think they should battle
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: test their pitchers there. They did not do that, but
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: he's getting battle-tested in the majors. He's got a 4.29 ERA, 1.38 whip.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: Not horrible, but not good either. 4.15 road ERA, though.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: He's actually been a little bit better on the road.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: His opponent batting average on the road is good, 188
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: or something, but he actually had a really good start
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: at home last time against Texas, so maybe he's kind
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: of coming into form here a little bit. He's pitching
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: a little bit longer into his outings here. That last
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: start was good, so maybe... He's coming around a little
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: bit here, possibly, and Anaheim is going to be a
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: weak offense he gets to face here, and Anaheim has
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: never seen him before, so he might pitch well here
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: in this game. He might have the extra advantage of
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: not having been seen before by Anaheim's offense. The thing is,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: Reid Detmers has started for the Angels. He's good. He's
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: their best pitcher, and I think he just continues to
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: just go unheralded because he's on such a bad team.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: He's got a 3.32 ERA, 1.04 whip. He's been better
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: at home, 3.21 home ERA. He's coming off a six-inning
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: one-hit shutout of the Red Sox last time out on
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: the road with nine strikeouts and one walk. He's in
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: excellent form right now. He's only allowed three runs total
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: over his last six starts. Is that good? He's allowing
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: half a run per start, and he's gone at least
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: six innings in every one of them. Yeah, I would
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: say that's good. His ERA over the last two months
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: is like, close to one uh this guy is dominating
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: right now man and nobody seems to really be talking
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: about it because he gets no run support and anaheim
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: keeps losing the games and their bullpen is bad denver's
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: has a low hit rate his walk rate's all right
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate is pretty high so those numbers are
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: all pretty good 4.2 strikeout walk ratio that's that's up
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: there man that's a really good number 10.2 strikeout per
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: nine is also pretty good. Detmers against Seattle. Not good, though, surprisingly.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: 79 at-bats. Seattle's actually been able to get to him.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: They have a 291 average, 792 OPS, 19-7 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: So I guess if you are going to try to
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: fade Detmers, this might actually be the spot to do it.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: The money is coming in on Anaheim, and I don't
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: really agree with that. It does seem way too easy
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: to play Seattle, though. That's the thing. The public is
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: actually going to be on Seattle, and this one is
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: bad as it played recently. Anaheim has one of the
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: worst records in baseball, so the public is never going
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: to want Anaheim. You know what I mean? 61% of
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: tickets on Seattle, 69% of the cash on Anaheim. I
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: think what the professional money is doing is saying, well,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: Detmers is really good, so we're going to back him
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: as an underdog here. You know what I mean? But
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at the situation, and I'm saying, well, denver's
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: actually has bad matchup numbers and anaheim's return home spot
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: really doesn't look good for them here my worry is
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: that yes it looks way too easy to play seattle
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: here the team with a better record at like a
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: pick'em price here the market's saying to to not do
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: it so i will not do it but i do
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: actually slightly lean to seattle in that one the money's
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: also coming in strongly on the over and i don't
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: agree with that either um Totals, it's 7.5. It's low
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: for a reason, but like I said, you're dealing with
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: bad offenses here. I think the pitchers should actually be
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: able to do well enough. I'm going to lean under
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: in this game. You're getting at least the key number, 7.5 there.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: Maybe you could leave the bullpens in and hope these
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: bullpens are at least okay in this one against these
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: bad offenses, although, of course, first five is also an
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: option if you want to do the first five under,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: but you're going to be looking at 3.5 probably, which,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: you know, I don't really love that much, so Do
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: what you want with all that info, but I don't
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: agree with the market read on that game in any way, really.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: And then we have Miami and Arizona. I think I
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: do agree with the market in this one. Arizona lost
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: two in a row to the Rangers, and they're staying
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: at home here. And you know Arizona, they got to
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: try to get this win, man. They're right there in
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: the wild card race. They're two and a half back
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: of San Diego now, which is, I think, for the
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: last wild card spot right now. The NL is good, man.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: The last team in the playoffs right now is San
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: Diego at 81-68. Yeah, we're looking at a good National
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: League here this year. It's tough to make the playoffs
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: in the NL this year. Arizona's got to step it up, man.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: We'll see if they can do it here. They're staying
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: at home. Kind of ugly losses to Texas there. Arizona's
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: good at home. They're 42-33 at home. Marlins are awful
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: on the road. They're 29-43 on the road, so the
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: home road splits definitely favor Arizona. in this series. Now,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: the Marlins are starting a road trip, but they're coming
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: from the East Coast, so you know that adjustment to
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: the late-night time isn't really that good. They're playing 940
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: Eastern time here, even though I think Arizona's in their
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: own time zone or something. I don't know what it is.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: But still, Miami having to play a late-night game with
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: their biological clock is not going to be that easy.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: Miami also just beat the Dodgers twice, so this could
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: be a letdown spot for Miami off of that. Even
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: though Miami is technically still trying to make the playoffs,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: it's not going to happen. They're way too far behind.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: So those were big games for them against the Dodgers,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: at least those wins. I think the spot does favor
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: Arizona here, although everybody kind of knows Arizona needs to
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: win this game, and the public will probably be siding
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: with them because they also have the better record. Arizona
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: used three relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is pretty well-rested
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: right now. I think they might actually have the bullpen
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: edge here. Miami used a bunch of guys. Miami's bullpen
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: is a lot less rested. They used four guys yesterday.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: A lot of usage over the last couple days. Miami's
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: number nine in bullpen, but their ERA is above four.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: Arizona's number five, and at least their ERA is below
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: four now. So I do think Arizona has the bullpen
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: edge here. Miami probably has the offensive edge. Miami's number
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: eight in offense. Arizona number 21. This will be a
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: more hitter-friendly park here, but we do have two pretty
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: good pitchers on the mound here. Sandy Alcantara is pitching
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: from Miami. Good season for him. Kind of a nice
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: bounce back for him this year. 3.78 ERA, 1.22 whip.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road, though. He is
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: beatable on the road, at least. 4.32 road ERA. So
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 3: he might be a play against in this game. And
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: he's not been good over his last three starts. He's
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: allowed four runs or more in each of his last
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: three starts, and in fact, Miami's lost his last six starts,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: even though some of that wasn't his fault, but the
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: last three, not good. In the last two games, he
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: faced Kansas City and the Mets. The Mets beat him
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: up in his last start. That's not a good sign.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: Alcantara's not in good form right now, although he does
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: have a pretty good hit rate here. His walk rate
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: is not too bad. His strikeout rate is really low, though.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: So 2.6 strikeout walk ratio because his strikeout rate is
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: just so low. 6.4 strikeout per nine. He's not fooling guys,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: which kind of surprises me because it makes it look
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: like his velocity is completely gone, which would make sense
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: because he's had Tommy John surgery and whatever. But he
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: actually is throwing like upper 90s if you watch him pitch.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: So I don't know exactly what the deal is there.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 3: Alcantara against Arizona. is actually pretty good, though. He has
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: 82 at-bats against them, a 207 average, 591 OPS, 20
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: to 6 strikeout walk ratio. So what the heck is that? Disney,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: giving me a pop-up here from ESPN, I guess, the
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: Children's Online Privacy Policy. Yeah, great. okay thank you thanks
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: ESPN and Disney thank you for letting me know I
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: like how that just pops up for no reason while
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: you're on ESPN thank you okay I'm not a child
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: by the way I know I act like it sometimes.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that was the confusion. Corbin Burns
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: is pitching for Arizona here. He's got a zero ERA
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 3: so far and 1.33 whip, but you remember I backed
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 3: him in his last game, which I forget, what was
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: my play in that game? It was Arizona first five maybe,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: and I think it was a push, and then they
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: won the game in extra innings anyway. Burns only went
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: three innings in that one, but they're easing him back
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: in because Burns has been injured since last year, but
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: He was a pretty much elite-level pitcher for a lot
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: of his career. So Burns is a very good pitcher,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: although he's a little bit older now. He's trying to
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: come back from injury. But his last start at a
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: pretty hitter-friendly environment at Kansas City, so that was a
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: decent sign. He pitched fairly well in that start. So
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 3: I think he's just going to continue to improve a
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: little bit from there. Burns against the Marlins, they only
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: have 10 at-bats against them. They only have three hitters
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: who have faced them before, 200 average, 400 OPS average.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: No extra base hits, two strikeouts, no walks. So I
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: think Burns should do well here, and the Marlins might
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: struggle because they're unfamiliar with him too. I like Arizona
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: in this game. It's not going to make the cut
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: for me, but Alcantara really in bad form right now.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: Also not as good on the road, and the home
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: road splits for the teams definitely favor Arizona here. 62%
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: of the tickets and 89% of the cash on Arizona.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: They're in the minus 130s here. Yeah, I think The
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 3: move is to just play Arizona on the money line
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: in this game, in my opinion. I think the under
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: is actually probably the way to look at the total
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: in this one. Both pitchers seem like they actually have
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: decent matchups here, at least. Money's slightly leaning towards the over, 8.5,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: but I think the under makes more sense there. But
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: I like Arizona in that one. And the money's starting
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: to disagree with my play, by the way, on the
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: Detroit side. But we will see what happens, man. I mean,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: the other good thing about Detroit, by the way, if
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: you look at the... MLB standings here. You look at
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: the run differential here. Detroit is plus 70, man. Detroit's
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: third in the American League. The only teams in the
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: American League with a better run differential are the Yankees
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 3: and the Red Sox. Detroit's run differential is a run
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: better than Tampa Bay. Although I know some of that
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: was with Scooble still there, but even so, that is
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: telling you that Detroit is not as bad as their
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: record looks. You know what I mean? And Toronto's run
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: differential is negative 31. So Detroit is actually the better
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: team if you look at it that way. So that's
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: another thing I forgot to point out there.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 3: Doesn't mean you should just blindly back Detroit, though, of course. Okay.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: But that's what I like here.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: We have the NFL game here as well, which I
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: already gave out a play on it. So you guys
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: that are following me already know what it is. But
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: you can still get the number on it right now.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: We're taking the Chiefs in this game. Hang on. we're
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: going to lay the two and a half with the
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: Kansas City Chiefs here, man. To me, it looks like
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: Denver is definitely shaping up to be a public underdog here.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: So that's part of the reason I start there. We
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: have 60% of the tickets on Denver, but 54% of
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: the cash on Kansas City. The public is only going
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: to be on Denver here, man. You could also play
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: the money line on Kansas City if you want to
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: do it that way and not worry about the points.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: But below a field goal, hopefully, is fine here. Now,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: The public only wants Denver, right? Because of what they
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: saw last year. Oh, well, Kansas City only won six
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: games last year. They didn't make the playoffs. And Denver
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: beat them twice. Yeah, that's true. But Mahomes only played
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: in one of the two games. It was the one
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: at Denver. And as I pointed out in my NFL show,
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: Mahomes is 7-0 at home against Denver. So Mahomes has
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 3: never lost to Denver in Arrowhead. And I know Mahomes, oh,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: he's no longer what he once was. But still, Denver.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: How much are we going to downgrade Kansas City for
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: one really bad season after they made the Super Bowl
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: the year before that? You know what I mean? You
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: know about the Super Bowl hangover. When a team loses
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: the Super Bowl for whatever reason, it's like they're cursed
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: in the next season. I think this should be a
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: bounce-back season for Kansas City. We're still talking about a
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: team that has a pretty good roster here. They finally
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: got a really good running back in Kenneth Walker. Mahomes
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: should be coming into this game healthy. Yeah, there are
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: some issues still. I mean, their defense might be a
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: little bit on the downswing, even though I think it's
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: still decent. They still have a really good coach. I
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: think Andy Reid is notoriously pretty good in primetime, if
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: I'm not mistaken, as well. It's a really tough environment
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: to have to go into Arrowhead at night. Very, very
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 3: difficult environment. Kansas City, big home field advantage for Arrowhead here.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: So the oddsmakers are actually telling you, Denver, I think
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 3: they're telling you Denver's the slightly better team by giving
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: Kansas City only a two and a half here or
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: having them lay only two and a half here. I
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: think they actually maybe should be laying above a field
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: goal here, to be honest. I actually think Kansas City
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: might actually be the slightly better team. And in a
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: Monday night game like this at home, I think you
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: got to give them like three for home advantage. You
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? So this line is actually a
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: little bit short. based on what we saw last year.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: Denver overperformed last year, in my opinion. Yeah, they're good. Yeah,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: they have a really good defense. I'm not totally sold
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: on their offense, even though they did add Waddle and whatever.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: And Nix is good. I don't think he's as good
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: as people think that he is, but he is good.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 3: And he doesn't make a ton of mistakes, really, so
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 3: that's good. But Nix is also coming back from injury,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: as I mentioned. Everybody's talking about, oh, how is Mahomes
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: going to look coming back from injury? Well, Nix is
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: coming back from injury, too. It's just people forget because
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 3: he got injured in the playoffs there, and he only
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: missed one game, but still, both quarterbacks have to do that,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: and Mahomes is at least kind of more used to
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: doing that, because he's a more experienced QB, so the
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: experience definitely goes to Kansas City here, man, even though
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: we have two good coaches here, whatever, I think the
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 3: experience quarterbacking might wind up being the difference here as well,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 3: and by the way, Mahomes, not only 7-0 at home
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: against Denver in his career, but I think he's also,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 3: I think I said it was like It's 13-4, I
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 3: think is what his overall record is against Denver. So
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: he's been a winning quarterback against Denver. I think that
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 3: the public's perception is skewed based on what they saw
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 3: last year. Denver won in Kansas City, but Mahomes didn't
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 3: play that game. That was after Mahomes was injured. That
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: was late in the season. So that game, I think
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 3: you can kind of throw that game out a little bit.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: And.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: Kansas City's going to want this game more, in my opinion,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: because Kansas City had won this division how many years
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: in a row? Kansas City, at least a few years
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: in a row, Kansas City won this division. Now, all
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 3: of a sudden, Denver won the division last year. You
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: don't think Kansas City's going to want to have a
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: say in that? I think this is a revenge spot
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: for Kansas City. It's divisional revenge because they lost the
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: division last year to Denver, and Kansas City lost both
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: games to them, so it's double revenge as well, including
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: losing at home last year without Mahomes, though, so I
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: think things line up nicely for a play on Kansas
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 3: City here. That's what we're going to do. And the
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 3: total's low, 43.5. It's gone up a little bit. The
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: money's actually coming in on the over, but I kind
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: of think this is more of an under game. I
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: think you're looking at two teams that are still better
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 3: on defense than offense. That would be my opinion here.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: And it has the makings of a game. It's going
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: to be this slugfest, you know what I mean? Which
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: I know it's not great for laying points, but I
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: do think the under... makes more sense in the over
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: in this one, but my preference is obviously the Kansas
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: City side, but I think it will be kind of
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: a defensive battle, and a lot of times the divisional
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: opponents face each other, you know, they kind of know
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: each other, so they know how these offenses are going
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: to try to attack them, so the defenses are usually
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: better off in these divisional matchups, because they're very familiar
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: with each other, you know what I mean, so that
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: tends to lend itself towards more unders as well, and
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: plus it's just a big game, which usually means more
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: intense defense, so I think the under does make some
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: sense there as well. But I like Kansas City. That's
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: the play. That's going to do it, man. The two
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: plays today are the Detroit Tigers, Moneyline, Kansas City minus 2.5.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: Or if you can find a Moneyline that's a good price,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: you can do that as well. For the NFL play,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: let's have a winning week in the NFL, man. Let's
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: go 2-1. Come on. That's going to do it. Learn
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: to tote on Twitter. Learn to tote on Instagram. Like,
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: subscribe to the channel here. You'll get notified when I
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: go live. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, that all
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: helps me out as well. Covered in you because my
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: ukulele channel on YouTube, so you can check that out
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 3: as well. Patreon.com slash learn to tote if you want
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 3: to support me over there. Loser cast every Tuesday night
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: and the New York Giants G spot podcast, which I
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: know we did not do a live show or whatever.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: It would have been fun to do a live show
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: during that one though. Nice win for the Giants last night.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: My lean was correct on that one. Unfortunately, it was
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: not on my card, but Giants look good, man. First
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: game under Harbaugh. Jackson Dart made a few mistakes. He
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 3: made one mistake on that final drive where they were
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 3: icing the game, but he made up for it by
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: making two really clutch third down throws to ice the game, both,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 3: I think, to likely. But he had one throw where
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: he made a really bad throw where neighbors had a
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 3: lot of space to make the catch, and Dart underthrew him.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: But Dart made up for it, man, with a couple
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 3: of big third down throws there. sealing the game. Um, yeah,
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: good game for the giants last night, man. Uh, this, uh,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: Dallas defense is, uh, still not exactly good. And I
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: think I won in my fantasy league because, uh, Williams
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: did a lot for me in that game last night. Uh,
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: the only way that I lose and let's not jinx it,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 3: but my opponent is Kenneth Walker and my team is
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 3: done for the week and I'm up by about 40
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: points so I have to dodge a monster game from
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: Walker but hopefully it's going to be a low scoring
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: game like I said and the defenses will show up
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: although I need Kansas City to win so hopefully they
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: can do that with Walker not scoring a murderous amount
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: of points here let's get it done that's going to
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: do it I appreciate it. Zach, what's up, man? Thanks
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: for hanging out.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: Mr.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: Pinsey, thanks, everybody. Peace.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: somebody answer. Let somebody know you do not have to
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: lose this round alone. Hold on. Hold on, not tonight,
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: On Let me.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: Pull you out That bad luck fights hard But it
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: don't get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: me now Hold on, hold on. You're still here now.