Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NHL + NBA Best Bets Thursday 2/26/26

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NCAAB + NHL + NBA Best Bets Thursday 2/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: is anymore. But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump yesterdays, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: early today. This is Toadstool Sports, Wednesday, February twenty fifth edition.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Not a good day yesterday on the show. I'm not
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: happy about the NBA especially. I mean, at least the
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Celtics won. I guess for my rooting purposes, but yeah,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: we went three and four yesterday. Horrible game to kick
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the night off. Notre Dame basically not was showing up
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: against Duke. Duke puts up one hundred points. I mean,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: there's no way that I expected Duke in a spot
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: like that to put up one hundred. I was expecting
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: like seventy to fifty five something like something like that. Ridiculous,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous. What can you even do on Missouri? Excuse
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: me Minnesota Missouri as well, but Minnesota covered. I believe
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: they lost by ten. They were hanging. I think it
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: was a wire to wire cover. They were hanging in there.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: They were able to successfully slow Michigan down a bit
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: in that one. So that one got their Missouri outright
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: win against Tennessee, I'm pretty sure. So that was a
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: good one. And then we did hit on Baylor as well.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So college basketball was going, well, what was the score
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: in that? I didn't even see what the score was
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: in the Baylor game. I'm gonna look great now. It
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: was close. Baylor lost by seven, but they did indeed
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: cover the spread. And then USC not a good game
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: for them at night. They had some chances, man, they
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: were in range to potentially cover that. They just needed
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: to go on a little bit of a run in
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: the second half. That didn't happen. Bad performance from USC. Man.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: That team, they're done, they're not making the tournament. They're
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: out horrible, horrible. Uh. They just can't even show up
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: and cover when when they need to. And you look
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: at the stats in that game. I think the stats
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: are ridiculous in that game. I'm gonna look right now.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I think there was some major outlier in that game.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: If I can find it, I'm looking right now. I
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: don't have this up right now, but let me see
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I complained about it last night. There was some crazy
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: thing going on. Yeah, USC out rebounded UCLA by ten
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: and they still lost the game. They were minus nine
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: in turnovers, UCLA only had five turnovers, and USC only
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: shot thirty five percent from the field. So those are
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: basically the differences in the game. That's ridiculous. Horrible shooting
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: from USC rebounded team by ten, you have absolutely no
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: excuse to not even cover as an underdog. Absolutely ridiculous.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: And then the NBA was terrible. The Indiana Pacers kicked
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: it off with a bad performance. They couldn't get it done.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: I think they might have been down exactly ten at halftime, maybe,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: but it was Yeah, they could not get it done,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: not even close. And then my Celtics are able to
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: still beat Phoenix. Phoenix definitely struggling on the offensive side
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: of the Celtics, Dude, they play slow. I don't usually
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: talk about pacing in the NBA, but the Celtics are
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: the slowest paced team in the NBA. So that's another
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: reason that you may not want to lay points with
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: the Celtics in a game like that. Phoenix was winning
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the game. I think at halftime they were winning outright
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: so I think it was looking to be trending all right,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: and they still couldn't get it done. I don't know
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: what to telling you, Man and Phoenix. I believe they're
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the best covering team in the NBA this year too.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Although you could make the argument, well that's gonna regress
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the A lotsmakers have to just adjust. But I mean
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: that was a spot where they're getting seven at home,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: although I think the line actually dropped. I think it
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: was like five and a half. All right, let's get
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: into today. I'm hoping this is not gonna be that
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: long of a video. I this is a gonna be
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: a rare situation. You guys are not gonna enjoy this show,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: although I will talk about the big games. But I
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: don't know if since I've been doing this, I don't
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: know if I've ever had a Wednesday where I have
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: no college basketball plays. But that's what we have today.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: I don't have any I hate the college basketball board.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: You gotta know when to fold them, man, And I know,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: like maybe I'm being too selective or something. I have
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: no idea, but I'm only gonna have one play. It's
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: gonna be in the NBA and then NHL, it's kind
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: of a difficult read coming out of the the Olympic breaks.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping it, although I will talk about how to
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: generally handicap that, which I already talked about recently with
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the NBA after the All Star break. It's similar, all right, College,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I'll give some opinions on some of these games, but
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I dude, I just done nothing strong enough. Like I'll
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: talk about what I think are maybe the stronger opinions today,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: but it's just bad. Like looking at this car, there's
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: just nothing that I really love at all. There's one
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: eleven AM game for some reason on ESPN one, ESPN one,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: ESPN Plus, not ESPN one, which is just ESPN. I'm
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: way out of it. This early man Bucknell is at
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Army in the Patriot League. These two teams have both
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: that horrible seasons. I forget how the Patriot League sets
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: up as far as how many teams make their tournament.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I believe I want to say that the bottom two
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: teams in this conference don't make the tournament. So I
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: think that's what these teams have to play for right now.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Because these teams are tied with Holy Cross all at
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the bottom of the Patriot League. Somebody can correct me
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: if I'm wrong, but I believe that's what the motivation
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: is here, That these teams are playing to get into
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the Patriot Tournament at all, So like one of these
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: two teams will not make it if that's the setup.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Bucknell has lost a bunch of games in a row,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: and usually you see Bucknell doing decent in this conference.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: They've lost five games in a row and they just
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: lost horribly at home to holy Cross, so I think
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: you will see buck Nell show up after a horrible
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: game like that. They were favored in that game, although
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: not by much because they're awful this year. Bucknell did
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: already beat Army this year, because who hasn't basically in
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the Patriot League. Oh no, excuse me, Bucknell lost my mistake.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: They lost at home to Army in overtime. I don't
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: know how I didn't realize that Bucknell were four and
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: a half point favorites in that one they lost, So
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: there is actually a road revenge motive for Bucknell here.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Army just had a game against Navy where I think
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: they get up emotionally for it, but they lost the
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: game pretty badly, so I expect them to show up.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: It's just that Army is just really not a good team,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: and this is Army's final home games. You could see why.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: There's some conflicting factors here that I just don't love,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: because I talked about this yesterday. When you get a
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: team two of the main handicaping factors here in these
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: smaller conferences right now, Well, the final home game kind
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: of applies to all conferences, but a team usually gets
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a boost when they're playing their
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: final home game because they celebrate the seniors and whatever
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: and then and they're not going to play again on
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: that floor that year, so they want to give the
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Vans something. So it's a little bit of a motivator.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: But the other thing is we have to look at
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the teams that have already clinched their conference regular season title,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: and I will point those out. I pointed out a
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: couple of them yesterday. Some of them are playing today.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: I think at least one of the ones I mentioned
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: yesterday is playing today. So those teams you do not
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: want to play on them, I will tell you that,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: because they just have no real motivator. So that's the
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: thing that we have gone on here. But yes, all this.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: All of that being said, in that buck Now Army game,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: even the Army might get a boost from that. I
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: would lean to buck Now in that game, Army is
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: up to a three point favorite, which I mean, do
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: you think Armies should really be a three point favorite
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: even in their final home game against any of these
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: other teams in this conference. I'm not sure that the
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: answer is yes. So that's what I think about that game.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Six pm, we do have acc action between Wake Forest
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: and Boston College. Yeah, great game here. Both these teams
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: are on are not playing well. Actually Wake was playing
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit better. Wake had won three games in
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: a row. I don't know what I was thinking. I
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: was thinking Wake was on this bad skid, but they
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: did lose to Virginia Tech. They caught Virginia Tech in
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: a like Virginia Tech was in a bad spot where
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Wake caught them. I thought Wake would play better, but
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Wake wasn't in a great spot either off of upsetting Clemson.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: So Wake just did lose a win streak. With that,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: it was a bigger game, I would say for Wake
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: playing Virginia Tech. BC is coming off a loss I
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: believe at SMU. Yeah, and now BC is coming back home,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: and BC lost their last home game to cal. They
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: lost their last three home games, in fact, actually four,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: my mistake, BC their only conference wins do both come
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: at home? Though? Did both come at home against Syracuse
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: and Pitt Wake not as bad as those teams, I guess,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: but still not good. Even though Wake is I think
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: lower in the standings than Syracuse. I don't think Syracuse
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: is very good at all. BC. They are on a
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: huge skid. They've lost a lot of games in a
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: row here eight seven games in a row. Whatever. This
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: is not even close against SMU in their last game.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: But now again they're coming back home, and a lot
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: of times when a team does come back home, this
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: is their second to last home game. In the case
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: of BC, when a team comes back home and they
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: didn't do well in their last home games, a lot
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: of times they will show up with a better effort.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Wake is coming off the bigger game and lost a
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: win streaks. So I lean to Boston College in this game,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: but it's not a strong lean. Wake is laying four
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: on the road. You're also talking about like a North
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Carolina team flying up here into the aftermath of the blizzard,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: and it's actually snowing this morning here too. In Massachusetts.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: The snow shouldn't affect this because it'll be over by
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: like noon today, but there's still a lot of snow
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: on the ground here. These North Carolina teams, like, do
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: you really want to fly up to Boston and play
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: BC in this with this weather going on, even though
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: it's an indoor game. Probably not so, and maybe their
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: travel does get affected by whatever the aftermath of the
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: blizzard is. So, I mean, there's still schools that are
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: canceled today because of the blizzards, So apparently not Boston
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: College though, or at least it's not their basketball program.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: But I'd take the points a BC in that one,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: all right. Citadel and Furman is a little bit of
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: an interesting one in the SoCon. Furman is still battling
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: potentially for second the second seed in the soakon East
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Tennessee State has already wrapped up the one seed, so
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: they will have nothing to play for today pretty much,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: which I'll talk about in a bit. Furman is coming
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: off a couple of big games. They played East Tennessee
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: lost at home by nine, and then they beat Wafford,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: who is one of their competitors, right now for the
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: second seed in the conference. That was a big road
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: win for Furman. I do think Furman is the better team,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: and that was road revenge for Furman as well. So
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: they're coming up a big performance. They're playing Citadel, but
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: there's a chance they don't overlook the Citadel. And this
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: is again, this is why I can't find anything to
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: play today, because I'm like, oh, well, Furman might be
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot off of that nice game against Wafford.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: They're playing the Citadel. Oh but Citadel actually beat Firman
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: on the road, well at Citadel, so Furman might actually
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: take them seriously because Citadel actually did beat them. And
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: this is Furman's final home game. So there's nothing I
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: could really do there as far as like, yeah, I
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: really want to fade Firman here, I don't really. Citadel
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: has lost four games in a row. I'm expecting that
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: they will show up, but they did just lose their
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: final home game pretty badly unfortunately for them, So it
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: didn't work out in that game for them. But they
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: might show up for a game against Furman, you know,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: try to play a little bit of a spoiler role.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Furman is down from sixteen and a half to fifteen
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: and a half. I still probably agree with the Citadel side,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: but it's not strong at all, and it would be
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: plus the points of course. Peacock NBC Sports, seven pm.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: One of the huge games of the day is number
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: fifteen Saint John's at number six Yukon. This game is
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: gonna be in Hartford at the Civic Center, so the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: bigger arena for Yukon, which is not on campus, so
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit less of a rowdy environment, which
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I think is probably a slight negative. Well, it's slightly
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: less of a positive, let's say, for Yukon. But Yukon's
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: gonna be motivated here, man, because they lost to Saint
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: John's earlier this season. That's Yukon's. Oh no, they have
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: two conference losses, that is one of them. The other
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: one was Creighton, who they already beat badly earlier in
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: the season. So Yukon only has one loss to a
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: team that they haven't beaten, which is Saint John's. This
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: will be a big game for them. Yukon coming off
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: a winner for Villanova. That was a pretty nice win
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: for Yukon. Villanova running third in the Big East right
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: now and gave yu Kond a problem the first time
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: they played, so Yukon. You know, they are coming off
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: a big game, so that might affect them a little
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: bit in the negative, having to play two big effort
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: games in a row. But they did pull away in
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: that Villanova game, so the later portions of that game
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: were not like a completely max effort. Saint John's coming
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: off a just a monster win over Creighton. They blew
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Craton out by almost thirty points at home, so the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: travels not bad for Saint John's. Just going from basically
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: New York to Connecticut here, very quick trip for Saint John's.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: I would probably have to leave to Yukon, though I
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: expect Yukon will show up with force in this one.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: After they lost the first time to Saint John's, they're
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: down from five and a half to five. It looks
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: like some of the money is showing on Yukon now
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of tickets eighty six percent of the
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I would have disagree with laying it
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: with Yukon in that one, but it's not a very
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: strong opinion for me. Number seven, Florida is at Texas,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: and I think the public's gonna see this. This is
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: on ESPN two at seven. The public is probably gonna
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: see this and think that it looks really easy to
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: lay the points with Florida. Hear when it looks too easy.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: A lot of times it is or I don't know,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the best way to phrase that is,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: but nothing is that easy. Florida is them from seven
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: to six and a half here, eighty eight percent of
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the tickets, ninety nine percent of the cash on them
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: is probably not accurate, but I believe they will be
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: a really public side here. It's just I can't really
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: get there with this game. As far as the situation,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Florida on a seven game win streak, they're just rolling.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: They just played oh Miss. The negatives that you can
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: point out about Florida here are second straight road game
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: for them. They got to go to Austin, Texas here,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: and they do have a ranked Arkansas team on deck,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: so I guess there is the potential that they have
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a look ahead there, but I
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: don't find this to be a very strong read here.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: And for Texas, they did just lose a five game
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: win streak, so sometimes when a team loses a win streak,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: they'll be hunt over into the next game. Texas lost
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: at Georgia. Both those teams fighting to get into the
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: tournament right now. If Texas wins this game, I will
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: tell you that they're in the tournament. If they win
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: this game, I'm pretty sure like that would pretty much
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: be the scenario. Texas does probably know that, so I
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: think you know you're gonna get an effort out of them,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: and they are getting points at home, and Texas continues
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: to be an underrated commodity. I should bring up ken Pom,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: even though I'm not even gonna have any plays say,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: and usually I just kind of skip talking about it
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: for most games. But for Texas, he has them thirty
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: second in the country. Man, so he's got Texas as
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: good enough to be a tournament team. They're almost elite
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: on offense. They're just not good on defense, like at all.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: They're gonna slow the game down though. Texas. They play
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: slow and they get good shots, and they're a very
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: unlucky team. According to ken Bom, Florida is very unlucky
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: too though, so ken Bomb is telling you Florida is
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: absolutely elite and they are the significantly better defense, but
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: they're not the better offense here. You know, it's a
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: tough call. I guess I would probably lean towards grabbing
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: the points with Texas in that one. I think Texas
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: should be like super motivated here because they're trying to
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: make the tournament at all. When you're getting a home
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: underdog like that, that is playing with what I think
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: you pretty much know is gonna be a max effort
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: here or is Florida. I think the effort could be
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit more in question there. So I lean Texas,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: but it's a pretty weak lean for me. Kyle, what's up?
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Big ten Network at seven pm.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Maryland is at number twelve Nebraska. This is not an
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: interesting game to me. Nebraska is gonna be a huge favorite.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: I don't believe these teams have played this season. I
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: can correct me if I'm wrong about that. I don't
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: think so, because I don't see the big Red and
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: anywhere else. Maryland did just get a win at home
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: against Washington. That was a fine win. Washington's all right,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: But now going on the road to Lincoln not gonna
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: be easy for a team like Maryland. And Nebraska has
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: been really good this year of course, and they did
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: have a nice bounce back with an easy win at
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: against Penn State. Excuse me, they're staying at home here
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: on Nebraska. I mean, you could, I guess, make the
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: argument they might look ahead to a Pacific Coast trip
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: here and just not take Maryland. That seriously, you pretty
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: much know that Nebraska is gonna be a little bit
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: overvalued in the market. And that's really I think what
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: you could say about this game asking them to lay
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: seventeen points down from eighteen in a game like this
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: where it might just be kind of a whatever effort
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: for Nebraska, and this one Maryland excuse me, total is low,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: excusing in the one forties, so that might mean points
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: are a little bit more oft a premium yere. So
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: that kind of makes it make sense to take points.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: The market read seems to be all over Maryland for
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: the time being, seventy five percent of the tickets around Nebraska,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash on Maryland. So do
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: with that information what you want to. I guess for me,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: a slight lean I guess towards Maryland taking the points,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: But it also would not surprise me at all if
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Nebraska won that game handily. So I mean, that's not
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: something I want to get involved in at all. S
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: He's seen Network at seven pm. Georgia at number twenty
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: five Vanderbilt. Georgia coming up a nice win over Texas
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: after they beat Kentucky in the prior game, and a
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: nice road up set. So how much is Georgia gonna
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: have left in the tank? Is the question here? Because
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: I think Vandy is definitely in a fade spot in
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: this game. It's just that I don't know if I
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: love the setup for Georgia here. Georgia did get a
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: nice win over Texas, maybe they don't consider that to
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: be that great of a win. They're two and a
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: half point favorites in that one. Georgia probably does need
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: to continue to bolster the resume. They are playing a
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: third road game in four games, which is not exactly
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: that easy for them. Although going up from you know wherever,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: where's Georgia. Georgia's in Athens, right, so I think they're
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: not that far away from Atlanta. I believe going up
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: to Nashville, I believe is where this is is not
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be that ridiculous of a trip for them. Vandy
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: is coming off a huge game against Tennessee the massive
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: rivalry game. They do have Kentucky on deck. Georgia is
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: below them in the standings. Kentucky is above them in
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: the standings. I think we pretty much know Vandy is
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: a lock for the tournament anyway at this point, but
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I could quite get there with
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the fade of Van Like I said, like, this was
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: close to being a play for me, and it would
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: be on Georgia. I like Georgia in this one because
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: I think Vandy coming up that monster game against Tennessee
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: could set them up for a hangover. But this is
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: their last home game, dude, believe it or not. They
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: have three games left and they're all on the road.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: So Vandy, I mean, they really don't want to be
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: in a situation where they lose all of the remaining
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: four games and then they really have to do something
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: in the SEC tournament, although I think give it if
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: they do that, they're not gonna be out of the tournament.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna be a twenty one win SEC team.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, they already are, so I don't see them
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: completely missing the tournament. But that would not be good.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: And the committee does way recency, Vandy's up from eight
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: and a half to nine. Here, it's expected to be
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: a high scoring game. I would lean to Georgia plus
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the points, but it's not a strong enough opinion for
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: me to make my card. Though Vandy does play fast,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Georgia also plays super fast, so I wouldn't real disagree
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: with an over in this game either. Both teams I
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: think are better on offense than defense, especially Georgia does
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: lack on the defensive side quite a bit, So yeah,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: an over would not. Yeah, even though the total actually
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: dropped significantly a few points there, but the over would
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: not be something I would disagree with in that one.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: The style you know, kind of makes the total there.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: Although I'm not really a total guy totally ESPNU. At
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: seven pm, we do have an interesting game in the
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Missouri Valley between Illinois State and Northern Iowa. These are
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: two of the three teams that are tied five games
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: back of Belmont right now, as I already said, Belmont
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: has already clinched the one seed in the Missouri Valley
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: tournament here, which doesn't mean as much. It means they
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: get the maximum amount of buys in that tournament. But
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the top I think four seeds in that tournament all
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: get the same amount of buys. I'm pretty sure. And
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: there's no home advance because the whole tournament is in
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis. I believe so. But Belmont has wrapped up
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the one seed. It's the best they could do. Obviously,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: we have Illinois State in Northern Iowa battling to try
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: to make it up. I think they both still have
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: a chance at maybe getting a two seed here, but
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: they need a lot of help. But they gotta win
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: this game. So they're battling for some seeding here. Illinois
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: State's coming off in Illinois battle at Bradley, and now
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: they're playing a third road game in four games. The
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: game wasn't that close against Bradley they lost, but still
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: third road game in four games, coming off a big game,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: and they have Belmont to finish the season hosting them
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: at home. You know there's a possibility you don't get
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: the greatest effort out of them here, and they did
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: already beat Northern Iowa at home. So I kind of
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: like Northern Iowa in this game. Although you're gonna have
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: to lay points with a team that really plays ugly games. Man,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: I don't love the idea of laying points with Northern Iowa.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: They're just such such an extreme defense oriented team. They're
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: like a really legit depfense, but they can't score. Northern
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: Iowa is coming up a pretty bad loss though, at
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: home to Southern Illinois, though I've been pointing out all
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: year that Southern Illinois is not as bad as their
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: record looks, but it looks like it should be a
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: bounced back spot for Northern Iowa. They get to host
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: a game on espn U Big Game. It'll be revenge
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: for them, and it's their final home games. They should
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: be motivated for that reason. So I like Northern Iowa
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: and this one, but this one's also not really strong
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: enough for me. They're up from five to five and
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: a half. And again, do you want to lay five
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: and a half with a total that's that opened in
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: the one twenties and now it's up into the low
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: one thirties. I don't know. I mean, I know five
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: isn't really that much in in college basketball, because there
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: are points scored in college basketball, but it's still like,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it feels like you're it feels like
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the margin for error here is not really that much
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: with a team like Northern Iowa that wins with their defense,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Like I could definitely see them winning this game by
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: a few points and not covering, although it's probably likely
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: that if they do win, they will cover still. But yeah,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: that's what we got going on there. If you want
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: me to talk about it in these other games, I
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: guess I can. You know, it's a matter of like
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: trying to find motivation at this point in the season,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: see which teams still have anything to play for, you know,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: like some teams will kind of be locked into their seed,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Like I think Colgate is basically locked into the two
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: seed in the Patriot. I don't know if they can
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: fall behind American or Lehigh. I guess maybe they could
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: because they did lose one game to American, one game
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: to Lehigh. Actually they lost twice to Lehigh, so Lee
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: I definitely has the and they split with Americans, so
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: LEI actually does have the tiebreakers. So with two games left,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Colgate I guess could potentially actually still lose the Yeah,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: they could lose the two seeds still here, they gotta
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: play Lafayette here. They did already beat Lafayette I think
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: at home. Yeah, by eight on the road, excusely by
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: eight points. Lafayette, I guess, gets the chance to play
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: spoiler here, but it is Colgate's final home game, but
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: they do have Navy on decks, and they might look
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: ahead to that because they probably want to test themselves
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: against Navy, maybe get some revenge against Navy prior to
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: getting into the tournament. Navy, of course, has run away
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: with the Patriot League regular season title at this point,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: so Navy is not gonna have anything left to play
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: for it at this point. Lafayette comes in off pretty
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: ugly home loss to American their final home games on
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: deck against Army, but I don't think they're gonna overlook
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: a game against Colgate, so I think I would lean
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: to Lafayette and that one Colegate is laying eight and
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: a half with a fairly low total. There seems like
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: kind of a lot for Colgate to be laying, just
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: in general, although Lafayette is not a good team, so
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I would lean slightly towards taking the
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: points in that one. Keeping this thing going here, man,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: we're just trying to find other games that I even like.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Had an opinion on today. Butler and Villanova on Fox
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Sports One at seven pm. It's a big East matchup.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, not a whole lot of it, and not
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: a whole lot about this interesting. Butler's coming off a
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: win over Xavier at home, a fine win that will
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: continue their momentum into this one. They already lost at
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: home to Villanova by eighteen points, so I think you
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: will get an effort out of Butler here. Villanova is
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: coming up with the more difficult game. They did just
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: play Yukon and they lost a long win streak, actually,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: they lost a six game win streak, and they have
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Saint John's on deck, So you know, this one is
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: probably as close as a game that we've talked about
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: so far to being a play for me. I do
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: like Butler in this game, and you know, as I
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: look at it, I'm wondering if I should consider it.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: My hesitation with this one was that Villanova wasn't that
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: close this game against Yukon. They played well for a
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: half in the game and then they really just fell
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: apart in the second half and the game was really
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: pretty much a blowout. And that's kind of the thing.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: Like Villanova did not put in a max effort in
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: this game. By the end of it to keep it close.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: They were down almost twenty points pretty late in the game.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: They cut it to ten, but Yukon probably just basically
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: packed it in early because the game was over. You
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: could make the argument it is still a sandwich. Though
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: Villanova lost a long win streak, they had a game
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: they got up emotionally for it, hosting Yukon, and they
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: have Saint John's on deck, which is a huge game.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: So this game is sandwiched in between the two best
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: teams in the conference, and all of their losses and
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: conference play except for one, have been to those two teams.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: They did lose one game kind of inexplicably at home
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: to Creighton, but besides that, all of their other three
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: losses are to Yukon and Saint John's, so it is
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: going to be a revenge game for them against Saint
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: John's up next. This game is a revenge game for Butler.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Villanova might not take them seriously. Obviously, I would only
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: lean towards Butler in this game. This one is definitely
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: close to being a play for me. Villanova down from
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: ten and a half to nine and a half total
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: is pretty low. Villanova likes to play slow, so laying
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: points at home with Villanova a lot of times can
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: get you in trouble. They're a balanced team this year though,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: That's the thing. Their offense is actually fairly good. But
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: they're a lucky team. According to Kembum ninety fifth in lock,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Butler is a lot less lucky. So I think Butler
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an undervalue team, although they're not
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: as good on offense or deep bets. Of course, they
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: try to play a little bit faster, but Villanova will
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: likely slow the game down and you know, try to
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: save some of their energy. I just wish that Villanova
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: like took yukonto overtime again or something, because I could
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: really jump in on Butler here again. I would still
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: take the points with Butler there, and that one is
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: as close as possible to being a play for me.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I'm being very selective today, but I do like Butler
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: in that game. All right, Navy at Loyal and Maryland,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Like I said, do not play Navy in this game. Man,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: That's what I can say about this game. I mean,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: there's the chance they come in and they still win,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: but they already beat Loyal in Maryland. Who's who they're
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: playing today? By sixteen at home. Navy is coming off
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: beating Colgate a few games back. They didn't have a
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: letdown at all, and they crushed Lee High. They beat
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Army on the road in the next Army Navy matchup,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: which is still a rivalry, and they have a home
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: game against Colgate to finish the season on deck, which
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: that might be a game they might actually put in
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: some effort just because it's their final home game and
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: they don't want to just slack, I think in a
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: final home game for the fans. So I don't like
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the spot for them in this game. This game would
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: only be Loyal in Maryland for me. Navy again, they're
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: going on the road to Loyal in Maryland. Here they
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: have nothing left to play for, though of course it's
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: a short trip. Both these teams are Maryland teams. But
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Navy's still laying seven and a half on the road
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: and they have absolutely nothing to play for here. So
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: so keep that in mind, because they already have the
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: one seats, they have nothing to play for. I was
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: gonna give this out as a play, but the problem
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: I have with Loyal in Maryland is they just played
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: a really huge game against Colgate. They just took Colgate
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: to overtime on the road. That was a big deal
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: for Loyal and Maryland. Colgate has been one of the
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: best teams in this conference for years, and they were
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: eight and a half point underdogs. They took that game
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: into overtime, so they're in a fade spot as well
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: coming off of a game like that. So I can't
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: do it, even though I think Loyal and Maryland will
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: at least show up in this game, whereas Navy might
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: not even show up. So there's no way that a
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: team with like zero motivation like Navy, you know, or
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: at least zero motivation that you can really pinpoint. There's
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: no way they should actually be laying seven and a
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: half in this one in my opinions. So I would
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: still take the points of Loyal and Maryland, but I
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: unfortunately I just can't do it because of their recent
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: huge performance against Colegate. So but yes, I would only
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: take the points in that game still though, and it's
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: a fairly low total in that one. Navy they're still
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: a very lucky team according to Kenbam fortieth in his
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: luck Index, and they're really bad offensively. They're a good
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: defensive team, but they don't score well, so that's not
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: a good profile for laying a bunch of points on
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: the road. CBS Sports at seven pm. I don't know
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: how this game got scheduled for a national TV game
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: in the Summit League here, but it did. Omaha at
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: celt Dakota very very strange scheduling. Hero though, Omaha, they're
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: playing for one of the top four seeds here. Man,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: they might get one of the top four seeds. Celt
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Dakota doesn't have as much to well. Selth Dakota could
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: advance their seeding. That's what they have to play for,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: I think, Omaha. I don't think there are any buys
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: in the Summit League tournament though. I think the top
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: eight teams get in. They just play a very simple
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: eight team tournament structure. I think somebody could correct me
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: if I'm wrong about that, but I think that's true
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: in the Summit League. I'm not one hundred percent sure
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: about that. But yeah, celt Dakota, I mean, if that
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: is the case, they can't drop out of their positioning now,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: like they can't fall out of the top eight. Omaha.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: Let me see, they lost to celt Dakota at home.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Believe it or not earlier this year. So Omaha they're
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: in one of those situations where they were a pretty
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: big favorite at home in the first game and they lost.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: So I think you will get an effort out of
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Omaha here because they're trying to ensure that they get
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: one of the top four seeds here. They're on a
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: nice little three game win streak here, but they are
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: having to go on the road. But still I think
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: because they lost at home to celt Dakota, I think
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: they will actually take them seriously here. Even though Omaha
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: does have a big game on deck against Saint Thomas,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: who is one of the top teams in the conference.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Celt Dakota does have the chance to play spoiler here.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: They are back at home where they did lose their
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: last home game two home games to the two North
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Dakota teams. Although those teams, especially North Dakota State, is
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: actually North Dakota State's a pretty good team, the best
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: team in the Summit. North Dakota is not really as
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: good as their record makes them look. But soelth Dakota
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: did lose those two games at home, so they might
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: be motivated coming back home to get a good win here.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: But they do have their primary rival on deck at
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: South Dakota State, although they already beat them on the road,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: but that will be their final home game on deck.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: But still this is a rare situation though for South Dakota,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: where they're hosting a game on primetime television. So even
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: though it's a packed Wednesday card, so it's not one
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: of these really isolated games, I think they might get
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: up for the game a little bit more, not only
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: because they're on a three game losing streak they're coming
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: back home they lost their last two home games, but
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: also because they get a TV game here against the
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: team that won the conference last year. So I would
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: have a slight leaned Omaha. Just the road revenge angle
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: kind of doing it for me there, and the fact
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: that I think you will get an effort out in
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: them for seeding. But and they are the better team,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: you know, And if you get the better team who
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: didn't play well in the first matchup at home, that's
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: a decent way to look in the second matchup. But
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: there are some positives fa Salt Dakota here too where
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: I think they might show up as well. So that's
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: not a game I want to get involved in but
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: that's your TV game there. What else do we have?
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: We have a bunch of horizon action that I just
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: don't find that interesting at this point horizon, I don't
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: believe anybody has wrapped up the horizon yet, So just
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind. Right State has almost wrapped
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: up the horizon. But that might mean the Right State
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: is going to be a little bit overvalued. They're playing
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: at IPFW here. IPFW lost on the road to Right State,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: so they might show up. It is IPFW's final home
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: game here as well, coming back home for this Right
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: State might be a little bit overvalued because everybody pretty
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: much knows that they get basically one more win, they're
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: pretty much gonna wrap up the conference. Right State is
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: then from three and a half to two and a half.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: I would agree with that move and lean towards taking
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: the points with IPFW in that one, because I think
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: a team like Wright State that's basically win and you
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: clinch the conference like that puts a little bit of
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: extra pressure on you, you know what I mean. It's
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: like that win in you're in scenario where I think
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: you're you tend to be a little bit overvalued in
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: a scenario like that. Okay, Wawford and East Tennessee State.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: I kind of alluded to this game a little while ago.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: East Tennessee State has nothing to play for at this
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: point because they already won the SoCon regular season, so
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: they will have the one seed that's gonna be a neutral.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I believe that's a neutral. Actually is it? I don't remember.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: I think it is a neutral UH site tournament. I
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: believe it is. I think they played in I want
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: to say they played in Greensboro, I forget somewhere in
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: North Caroline. I think, I forget. Wafford is the only
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: team that has motivation in this game, so I would
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: have to lean their way, but I don't think I
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: can get there with Wafford because they are coming up
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: that pretty big game against Furman, who is right behind
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: them in the standings. Wafford is tied in second place
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: pretty much with Mercer right now, so Wafford is trying
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: to get the two seed here, which would help their
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: buy structure in the tournament. But they're coming up a
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: big game against furman Man, so I don't know. They're
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna show up for this game mentally, but they
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: got to put in another big effort here after that
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: game against Furhman, but it was a loss, so maybe
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: they will kind of be in bounced back mode here.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: They lost at home to East Tennessee already, so East Tennessee,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: I think really is going to be unmotivated here. Man
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: East Tennessee. They're playing out the stretch here. They already
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: beat Wafford on the road. Like I said, they've already
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: clinched the one seed. I guess one issue you might
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: have with fading East Tennessee here is this is their
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: final home game, so they probably don't want to just
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: completely throwing the towel in this game, you know what
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, because the fans are gonna show up and
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: they want to send the seniors off in a decent way.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: So they are still laying eight points here because again
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: the Ospeakers kind of have to do that in line
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: the game as like an inordinary game for the most part,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: because you don't really know like what effort you're gonna
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: get out of this team. I would still take the
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: points with Wafford if I was gonna play that game,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: but I have some reservations about it. Just like with
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: everything on the board today. We do have Evansville at Belmont.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Like I said, Belmont has already clinched the one seed
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: in the Missouri Valley. They're on a win streak here,
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a win against Indiana State. Now they're
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: playing this atrocious Evansville team. They already beat Evansville on
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: the road, although only by five, so Evansville actually covered.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: So I guess you could argue that Belmont will take
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: them a little bit more seriously because Evansville gave them
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a scare when they played them
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: on the road, and Belmont were like double digit favorites
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: in that game. Belmont are as of favorites in this game,
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: and they do have a TV game to finish the
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: season against Illinois State, where I don't really know how
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: much effort they're gonna put it to that game either,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: because again, they are gonna start looking forward to the
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: conference tournament, although I don't think they want to just
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: completely pack it in yet either, because you don't want
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: to go into the conference tournament, you know, like Rusty either,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: you know, so there's kind of that trade off there.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: But are you gonna get a good enough effort from
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: Belmont to cover like a twenty point spread here. I
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: would not lay it. There's no way that I would
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: lay it, and a team that has extremely questionable motivation
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: and laying that many points as bad as Evansville is.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: But it is Belmont's final home game, so they'll probably
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: still win the game. They'll probably show up with enough
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: effort to win the game. But I would only take
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Evansville plus the points if I was gonna do anything
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: with the spread. Belmont up to twenty and a half
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: with juice from nineteen. So initial line move on Belmont,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: which is pretty insane, to be honest. But yeah, that's
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: what we got going on in that game, all right,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: true TV seven thirty pm. Xavier is at Providence. Xavier
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: on a two game losing streak here. They just played
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: okay in those two games against Villanova and then at Butler.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know how big of an underdog they were
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: against Butler. They actually failed to cover by a half
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: point against Butler, but I don't think the teams are
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: really caring to that degree, like a half point one
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: way or the other. What matters is they're a huge
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: underdog and they played close. Then that takes a lot
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: of effort. But Xavier might show up, but it is
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: a second straight road game here. They did already beat
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Providence at home, though some Providence does have a revenge
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: motivator here. As far as the Big East tournament, I
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: forget how many teams make the tournament, so I don't
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: know if the last couple of teams get left out
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: of the tournament. So these two teams would be playing
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: to avoid missing the tournament entirely if that's the case,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: because these two teams are only a half game above
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: the last place teams, which are Georgetown and Marquette. Interestingly,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: in the Big East, the worst teams in the Big
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: East really are not that terrible, I guess, but you know,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: it's a very mediocre conference overall. There's Rick Patino in
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: the Yeah, the game with all the brawls against Providence,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: that was ridiculous. Providence did just beat to Paul on
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: the road. Coming back home from that, it is their
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: second last home game. This is a difficult read. There's
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: nothing that I really get out of this handicap that
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: I can figure out one way or the other. The
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: money is currently indicating on Xavier for what that's worth.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Providence down from six and a half to six here,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the tickets eighty nine percent of the
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: cash on Xavier. It's a pretty high total at one seventy.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: And I probably would not disagree with an over in
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: this game. A Providence plays super fast, they don't play
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: any defense. Xavier all still plays fast and is pretty
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: weak defensively as well. Both teams are actually really weak
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: defensively by like Big East standards, so both teams better
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: on offense. I would not disagree with an over in
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: that matchup, which is why that total is so high. Okay,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: keeping this thing going here, man, again, if you want
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: me to mention any of these other games, I guess
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: I can, But I don't think we have any other
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: situations where there are teams that have clinched their conference
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: at this point. I think I already hit all of
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: those acc network at APM PIT at Stanford, Pitt is
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: having to go out to the West coast, which you know,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: I talked about how difficult that is, especially if it's
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: a late night game, but this one's not as late.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: It's at eight pm Eastern, but still you're playing pretty
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: late on your biological clock and having a travel cross country,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: so that's not that easy to do. Although the good
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: thing for Pitt is they have positive momentum because they
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: beaten Notre Dame in their last game and they ended
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: a five game losing streak, so they come into this
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: game with momentum and maybe they will show up because
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: it is against a team that has a record that's
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: better than theirs. For the Big East Tournament or excuse the
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: as the Big East. I'm so used to Pitt being
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: in the Big East. I'm that old man for the
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: ACC tournament, I don't remember how many teams get left
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: out of the tournament, so I mean, I don't know.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: These teams do have some seeding to play for here.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: I guess Stanford is coming off their big rivalry game
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: against Cal though they did lose, they were coming back
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast. I think both teams are flying
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: across country back to the Pacific Coast for that. But
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: that's a big game Stanford Cal their rivals. Stanford fell
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: short in that game, and they do have a big
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: game on deck against SMU, who is probably gonna be
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: a tournament team, So you could make the argument this
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of a sandwich spot for Stanford here,
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I probably dueling pit in this game,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be an underdog here. No, I don't want
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: to bookmark this. Sanford's up to an eight point favorite
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: and the total is low in the one thirties, so
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: I think I would probably actually take the points with
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Pitt there, But pretty weird spot having to travel cross
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: country this late in the season. I think it would
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: be the first time Pitt is doing that, so I
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: don't exactly love that. Keeping it going. Central Arkansas and
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Austin P is a pretty interesting one in the a
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: SUN because these are the two teams that are still
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: in the running for winning the A SUN regular season title.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Austin P has a two game lead over Central Arkansas
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: right now. I believe if Central Arkansas wins this game
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: and then beats Queens, because this is the only game
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: that they play against Austin P, I believe that would
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: give them the tiebreaker. They would have to win both
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: games and Austin P would have to lose both games,
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: but Central Arkansas still has the chance to get the
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: regular season title. They hurt their chances though on Saturday
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: with a pretty ugly loss in overtime to Florida Golf Coast,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: and they kind of got screwed, dude. I watched the
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: end of that game Central Arkansas. I had the game
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: wrapped up in regulation. I think there was some weird
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: foul call or something at the end of regulation that
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: helped Gulf Coast extend the game. Something weird happened then.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: I can't remember exactly what happened Central Arkansas. I didn't
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: like them in that spot though. I thought they would
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead to Austin P here. But the setup
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: for Central Arkansas is not exactly great because they did
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: just lose a long win streak. They had a really
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: long win streak snapped. It was like a ten or
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: eleven game win streak or something like that. And you know,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: I talk about when a team has a really long
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: win streak like that snapped a lot of times, that
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: will hang them over into the next game and they'll
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: lose the game twice essentially, And it's a third road
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: game in a row, which is not easy to do.
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: But I think the motivation shouldn't really be in question
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: because again, they do have the chance still to potentially
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: get the ASUN title here and Austin p does have
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: the two game lead here, so Austin P could theoretically
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: lose this game and still win the conference. They probably
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: should beat Bellerman in their final game, but they probably
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: don't want to have to let it come down to
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: that road game. This is their final home game, so
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: I do think Austin P is going to show up
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: in this game. They played a couple of lackluster road
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: games at North Florida and at Jacksonville. Having to go
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: down to Florida, those teams are not that good. Austin
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: P barely got by both of them, especially North Florida.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: They had a massive escape. I showed you how that
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: game ended. I played the video which is still there.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: It was crazy. Basically, they had to chuck at the
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: length of the court and they had a tipped ball
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: going to their players' hands with one second eleven. He
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: was able to throw it up towards the basket before
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: the clock expired, and it went in absolute insanity in
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: that one. But I think Austin P will show up
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: after those scares. They are back at home in Tennessee.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: Of course, they aren't a situa where if they win,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: they clinch the one seed here, so it's one of
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: those situations where they might be a little bit of
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: an overvalued team because of that, three and a half
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: is not a ton to be laying with them at
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: home though, and I would probably still lean to Austin
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: p in that one. But again, you're laying a little
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: bit much of a team that you know win an
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: in scenario like it's still like fucks you mentally, you know,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: like if we win, we clinch the conference and then
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: you just get you know, you start harping on that,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Where Central Arkansas can kind
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: of play looser because nobody really even expected them to
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: be here at all. But I don't like the fact
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: that they lost that really long win streak. Getting into
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: the nine pm Portland at Gonzaga, this is a revenge
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: game for Gonzaga. As crazy as that sounds, everybody probably
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: remembers Gonzaga lost inexplicably at Portland as I think twenty
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: two point favorites or something like that in that game,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: and now they're only twenty six point favorites at home,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: So believe it or not, I think there might actually
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: be line value on Gonzaga here, and this is their
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: final home game, and because they lost at Portland, I
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook Portland this time, but it
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: is still a scenario where Gonzaga might start looking ahead
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: because they have a huge game on deck against Saint Mary's.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: They already beat Saint Mary's once, but there's still only
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: one game ahead of Saint Mary's, so that game does
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: have implications as far as who's gonna get the one
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: seed here, and it is like always Gonzaga for the
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: most part in recent years. So that's the worry here that, Yeah,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Gonzaga is gonna want to win this game because they
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: know they lost to Portland. But are they gonna be
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: that motivated to win this game in an absolute blowout?
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Maybe not, Like it might get into a situation where
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: they're up twenty points late in the game and they
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: start looking ahead and just take their foot completely off
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: the gas and they just win this game by you know,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: somewhere in the teens. Like I could definitely see a
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: scenario or that happens here. So I can't lay the
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: points here with Gonzaga's just too it's just a ton
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: of points, even though I do think it's maybe not
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: even enough if this was just a this game is
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: just in a vacuum, like Gonzaga is the way way
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: better team here. But Portland also will still get up
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: for a game against Gonzaga though they've lost three games
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: in a row. It is a third road game of
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: four games for them though, which is not easy to do.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: But you know, like they'll still probably try to get
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: up for a game against the team that's always at
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: the top of this conference. So it's not like they're
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: gonna lack in motivation. It's just that Gonzaga is the
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: way better team. So how full of an effort are
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: you gonna get from them here? Well, again, the worry
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: is that they have Saint Mary's on deck, so you
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: might not get a full effort ont of Gonzaga. I
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: could see Gonzaga coming out. This is what I would
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: probably do with this game. I would probably lay the
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: points with Gonzaga in the first half because I think
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: they're probably gonna show up. They played some easy game
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: in their previous game. I think they're gonna come into
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: this game. Oh yeah, we remember Portland beat us. We're
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: gonna like, Gonzaga is probably gonna come out with some
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: fire to just stick it to Portland early on, you
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, Like, you're not gonna beat us
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: this time, but then second and half, I could see
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: them starting to look ahead, you know what I mean,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: once they know this game is in hand, let's not
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: continue to put in a bunch of energy. We gotta
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: save some for Saint Mary's. So I'm not really a
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: halfs guy, but Gonzaga first half would probably be the
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: way I would play this game. They're laying twenty seven
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: in the game, by the way, so first half is
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: probably fourteen is probably the line in the first half,
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: which I know gets a little bit dicey. Fourteen is
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: a lot to ask in one half, but there is
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: definitely a chance that they're just blowing Portland out in
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: the first half, all right, Or I guess the other
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: way to play it is you could I don't even
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: know if you could find a line on this. You
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: can get super granular and go Gonzaga first half over
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: their team total. I don't even know how many books
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: even offer that, if any, but I could see that
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: being maybe a way to look at that game too.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Espn U at nine pm, Mississippi State is at number seventeen.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Alabama Mississippi State. I don't believe, I know they did
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: play Mississippi State did lose at home to Alabama, So
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: Alabama might not take Mississippi State seriously at all because
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: they're not having a good season and Alabama already beat
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: them on the road once by double digits. Mississippi State
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: is coming up a pretty ugly loss at South Carolina,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: so I expect effort out of Mississippi State here. They're
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: not a great team this year, though they are playing
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: a third road game in four games, which is not
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: the greatest scenario Alabama. Unfortunately, they're not coming up that.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: If they were coming off that Arkansas game, you better
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: believe I would give you Mississippi State as a play here.
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: The problem is after that Arkansas game, Alabama already played
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: the next game, and they went to LSU and they
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: won and did not cover. I believe they almost covered.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: I think they came within a half point of covering.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: They won the game at LSU even though they were
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: in a major letdown spots. And now they're coming off
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: of kind of a questionable performance at LSU, which was
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: explainable because that was a massive double overtime game against Arkansas.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: The game before that that, I thought I might have
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: wiped Alabama out, and they still almost covered against LSU. Now,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: the one major negative for Alabama here still is that
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: still those games took a lot of effort to do,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: and they have Tennessee on deck. In fact, their remaining
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: three games are all bigger than this one. They got
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: ranked Tennessee on deck, which is a revenge game as
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: well because Tennessee beat them at Alabama already. Then they
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: have Georgia, who's looking like they're gonna be a tournament team,
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: and then Auburn, which is a huge Alabama rivalry game.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: So every one of the remaining games is more meaningful
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: than this one against Mississippi State. So Mississippi State is
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: the side in this game. It's not on my card,
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: but this I would have to lean to Mississippi State here.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: It's a really high total, one to seventy five and
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: a half. Alabama down to a fourteen and a half
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: point favorite here from fifteen and a half. So some
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: money has come in in agreement with me on this.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Alabama doesn't play very good defense. Mississippi State, believe it
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: or not, else to play fast this year as well,
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: although their defense is actually better than their offense on
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State, so you're getting the more defense oriented team
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: with Mississippi State, even though their defense is still actually
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: worse than Alabama's. Alabama's just the way way better offense there.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: But yes, I would take the points, but it's you know,
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit difficult to take the points with the spot,
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: you know, not being horrible enough, I don't think for Alabama,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: and the fact that Alabama might be able to score
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: enough to still win that game by that margin, that
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: kind of thing worries me a little bit. Mississippi State
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: might actually come in and try to play slow in
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: that game, who knows, man, So I don't know if
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: I'd want to go over in that particular game, although
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: the money has come in towards the over and the
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: total is way high at one seventy five and a half.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: But you're looking at the Mississippi State team that is
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: actually better on defense than offense at the very least,
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: and their defense is almost as good as Obamas, although
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: good is relative. ESPN two at nine PM, Texas A
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: and M at number twenty Arkansas. Texas A and M
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: not as good as they looked when they started out,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: but it looks like they are probably going to make
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: the tournament at this point. But this would go a
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: long way. Man, Beating Arkansas would go a long way,
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Although they do have other opportunities at home against Texas
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: and Kentucky. I think if they're gonna make the tournament,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: they better get at least one win in that three
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: game stretch there. Man, maybe two. We'll see. This one's
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be difficult. They got to go to Arkansas for
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: this one. A and M is coming off a couple
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: of close wins against Ole miss and Oklahoma, so they
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: do at least have some momentum coming into this one.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Arkansas is coming up a win over Missouri that was,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: you know, not a huge win for them, but they
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: do have a huge game on deck against Florida, so
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Arkansas might look ahead to Florida. That's, like I guess
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: the main concern with Arkansas scheduling spot there. I would
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: lean slightly towards Texas, A and M. This is another
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: game with the crazy high total in the one seventies.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Both these teams are gonna play fast, so I wouldn't
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: really disagree with an over in this one. Arkansas is
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: up to an eight point favorite there, I lead towards
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: taking the points as well, but you know, a high
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: total like that makes that a bit iffier. Arkansas is
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: not coming off a big game, so I don't love
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: it really. Arkansas is a great offense top five offense
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: and not a very good defense at all outside the
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: top fifty, and they play fast. Texas A and M
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: is also better on offense than defense, although they are
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: more balanced, but they also play fast. So yeah, I mean,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: an over does still make sense in that game to me,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: just based on the style that those teams play. Fox
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Sports won. Yeah, a lot of games with high totals today, man,
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: Fox Sports won. At nine pm, Kansas State is at Colorado.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Kansas State having to go into elevation for this one.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: Kansas State playing like a team that doesn't care at
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: this point. They fired their coach not that long and
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: it didn't really give them that much of a boost. Really,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: they just got destroyed by Texas Tech. So maybe they
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: will show up with more effort after giving the up
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: one hundred points at getting blown out. Maybe they'll give
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: you a better effort here, but going into elevation, third
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: road game in four games not gonna be that easy.
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: Colorado is staying at home. They just beat Oklahoma State,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: which is a decent win though and they do have
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: Houston on deck, which might be a look ahead for Colorado.
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: With not a whole lot left for Colorado to play
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: for during the season here, these teams are gonna have
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: to do something. If they make the Big twelve tournament,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: which I think most of the teams do, they're gonna
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: have to make noise in the tournament to really, you know,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: do anything. You know, they're gonna have to put themselves
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: in position to shock and win the you know, win
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: the conference tournament. So not a whole lot of motivation
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: here as far as that's concerned. I think Colorado's in
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: the somewhat worse spot, like as far as what they
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: just came off of, what they're looking ahead to. Little
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: bit about the travel for Kansas State here, but I
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: probably would take the points with Kansas State and that one.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: Colorado's a seven point favorite Big Ten Network. In nine PM.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: Ohio State at Iowa. This one was in consideration for
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: making my cut. It just doesn't quite get there. Man,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. Look at the run of games they're coming
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: off of. They just played Virginia close, then they beat Wisconsin,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: then they went to Michigan State and they played them
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: to within six points, and they're coming off of those
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: three games. That is, those are monster effort games for
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. Man. The one concern I do have is
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: that the game was actually put away against Michigan State.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: They were down ten with a minute and a half left,
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: so they didn't take Michigan State right to the wire,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: but the game was still closed with about four minutes
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: to go. And they're coming up of all that having
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: to go to Iowa and they got per Due on deck,
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: which might be a big game. Although Ohio State they're
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: a bubble team, man, so they can't really lose to anybody,
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: and they're tied with Iowa and the standing, so I
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: think there is still a motivating factor here for Ohio State.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of one reason why I can't really
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: jump in on this because I do like Iowa in
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: this game. Iowa is coming up that loss to Wisconsin
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: where I gave you guys, Wisconsin in that one. Wisconsin
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: had to pull away late in the game, but they
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: were able to do it. So ioways coming up a
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: game where it was close until like six minutes left
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: in the game and then Wisconsin just completely pulled away
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: back at home, you know, maybe iowaill give you a
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: better effort here. I would lean that way just because
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, Ioway is coming off some big
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: games too, though, against Purdue, then they beat Nebraska, then
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: they played close most of the way against Wisconsin. So
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: those are kind of my hesitations there. I lean Iowa,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: but I don't love this. Let me see where's Iowa at.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: They're off from five and a half to six with juice,
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: maybe six and a half already there, so some of
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: the money has come in on Iowa. As we know, though,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Iowa plays slow total in the one forties, so they're
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: not exactly the team I really love laying points with.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: So you know, still it's a game that's a stay
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: away from me. Yeah, this is just a bad board today, man,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: I am bored by it. What else can I say?
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: CBS Sports at nine pm we have UNLV at Grand Canyon.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: UNLV did actually beat Grand Canyon at home already, so
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: there is a little bit of a revenge angle for
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Grand Canyon here. I believe this was a close line
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: in this game. Grand Canyon is actually a road favorites,
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: you know, that is somewhat of an angle that you
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: can use or Grand Canyon loss as a road favorite.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: That means they should give an effort at home here,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: and Grand Canyon gets to host a TV game, so
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: I think they will get up for a game like that.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: UNLV is coming off an easy win over Air Force, though,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: so they probably won't overlook Grand Canyon. But well, there
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: is the chance that they do, because look at their
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: remaining games, dude. They played their rival in Revenge on
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Nevad next, and then they have the top two teams
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: in the conference, basically the Utah State and San Diego State.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: So I guess you could make the argument it is
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: a look ahead here, even though Grand Canyon is ahead
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: of them in the standings. Those remaining games are big
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: and they already beat Grand Canyon once. Grand Canyon, I
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: think you're going to get an effort out of them
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: because they lost to UNLV already and they're coming up
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: a pretty ugly loss at home to Wyoming as a
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: pretty big favorite. But I told you I did not
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: like Grand Canyon in that game. I liked Wyoming. It
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: almost made my card. Grand Canyon loss as a seven
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite in that one. They were
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: coming up a huge win over San Diego State, on
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: the road in a big upset, and they had this
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: revenge game against UNLV on deck and Utah stayed after that,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: so I think Grand Canyon was looking ahead. The only
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: way that I could play this game is Grand Canyon.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: This one is actually probably one of the stronger opinions
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: of the day, to be honest, they're up to seven
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: and a half with juice seven and a half or eight.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: I would lay it with Grand Canyon in this one.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: That's how I look at that game. The total is
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: not particularly low in that game, so you might get
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: enough points scored for them to do that. But I
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, It's just still I don't love it enough.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: To Paul at Creighton on Peacock Big East not the
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: most enticing Big East matchup to. Paul actually beat Creyton
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: already at home, but I believe De Paul might have
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: been a one point favorite in that game. They won,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: I think by right around what the number was. Are
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: they're one and a half point underdogs, actually one point underdogs.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: De Paul is coming off a loss to Providence at home, though,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: but going on the road to Creighton, you know, having
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: to go to Omaha. They did already beat Creighton. Like
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: I said, so Creighton might show up with a little
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: bit of effort in this one because it is a
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: revenge game and Creighton just got absolutely trounced by Saint John's.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: But they were coming off of a monster win. I
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: told you I liked Saint John's. I'm kind of mad
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: I didn't put that on my card. Like Creighton coming
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: up that win over Connecticut, they just had nothing left
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: in the tank against Saint John's. They got absolutely destroyed.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: I'd coming off that monster win. But now they're coming
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: off a blowout loss, so back at home, I do
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: expect them to show up with more effort. Their last
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: home game is a pretty bad effort against Vollanova. They
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: lost by double digits at home on TV. In revenge
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: coming off a blowout loss, Creighton would be the way
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: I would lean in this game. They're five point favorite, which,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: by the way, if they're one point favorites on the road,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: they probably should be a little bit heavier of a favorite.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: Here sixty percent of tickets, ninety eight percent of the
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I agree with the money in that one.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: It would be crating for me in that game. Not
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: on my card, though, SEC Network LSU at Ole Miss
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: a more interesting football matchup than basketball matchup. LSU has
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: lost a bunch of games in a row, five in
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: a row, so maybe you will get an effort out
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: of them here. I don't believe these teams have played
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: this year, but you know, LSU did put in a
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: decent effort in that game against Alabama, and they covered
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: barely in that game, so maybe, you know, you could
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: argue that maybe it's a little bit of a hangover
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: spot here for Ole Miss. They're at home and they're
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: coming off a blowout loss to Florida, staying at home
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: hosting a home game here. Ole Miss did drop from
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: three to one and a half, but I kind of
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: leaned slightly towards Old Miss in that game. If it's
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: at one and a half, it would be a money
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: line play. But yeah, I don't really have a strong
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: feel for that game at all. ACC Network at ten,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: bm SMU at cal SMU Central time zone team having
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: to go to the Pacific Coast and play a late
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: night game. You know, I'm gonna talk about it again.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: It messes with your biological clock, and they haven't been
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: out there this year. I don't think, although actually I
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe they were for some of these weird
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: neutral site games. Nope, they played Fullerton at SMU. Yeah,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: so I don't know, but this is gonna be, you know,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: a Travis hard They do have to go out to
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: the Pacific time zone here SMU. I mean, I guess
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: you could make the argument this is still a bubble
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: battle of some kind because SMU trying to ensure they
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: get into the tournament. But I think they will be
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: in at this point based on their resume, Like if
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: they get one more win, they're a twenty win team,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: and that's likely to happen at some point, I think,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: even though they do have three of the remaining games
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: are on the road here out of the remaining four.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: But CAL is more of a bubble team in need
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: of a win. They're behind SMU and the standings. Cal
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: is actually like the last ACC team sort of on
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: the tournament picture right now with Virginia Attack and then
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: kind of behind them now even though CAL lost to
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech already, CAL is coming up a big rivalry
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: win over Stanford though, So that's kind of the concern
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: with CAL there is that they're coming up a big win.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: It's a difficult game to handicap for me. The money
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: has come in on SMU. They're off from two to
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I think it was four, and
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: it started to come back down a little bit. So
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: I just don't know what to do with this game.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: We don't really see the percentages yet, but sixty seven
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on SMU. They might a public side.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: I probably lean slightly towards Cal in that one, even
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: though I know they are coming off a rivalry win,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: but getting points at home in kind of a weird
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: travels spot for SMU. Cal I think might have a
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: little bit more of a motivating factor there, trying to
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: come from out of nowhere to get a tournament berth
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: from out of nowhere. I don't know. Eleven PMSPN you
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: Washington State at Loyal and Marymount. You don't know why
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: this game is on TV. Washington State beat Loyal and
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: Marrymount at home by two earlier this year, so Washington
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: State did not cover, but they were only three and
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: a half way favorites in that one, So I don't
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: know if that means they're gonna take Loyal and Marrymount
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: seriously or not. Washington State already played their final home
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: game and lost to Saint Mary's, which was a game
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: that you get up for against Saint Mary's. Just Washington
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: State's not good enough to hang loyal and Marrymount is
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: coming off a road win against San Diego and now
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: they're coming back home to play Washington State in revenge,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: So there is that even though they played Washington State close,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: I think I would probably have to lean towards Loyal
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: and Marrymount here. I mean it's they don't usually get
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: to host home game host TV games like this, so
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: Washington State has flipped from one point dog to a
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: one point favorite. But I think I would probably lean
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: loyal to Marry Mount in that one. But no real
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: strong opinion on that one at all. Excuse me, Santa
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: Clara at Saint Mary's on CBS Sports. This is a
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: great game, dude. This is one of the best games
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: of the day. These teams are fighting each other for
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: second place in the West Coast Conference right now, potentially
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: first place, I guess, although Santa Clara, I think has
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: already lost twice to Gonzaga, so they don't have a
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: tie breaker against Gonzaga, so I don't think. Yeah, I
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: don't think they can get first place. Well they can
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: if Gonzaga loses two games, they can, but I don't
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna happen Santa Clara. This is a big
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: game for both teams. Maybe bigger for Saint though, because
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: Santa Clara already beat Saint Mary's once at home, so
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: they currently have the tiebreaker against Saint Mary's. I don't
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: know who would if Smarris wins this game. It's gonna
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: be a big game. Like this game is pretty much
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: gonna determine who gets second place in the West Coast Conference,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: and I believe you get an extra buy if you're
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: one of the top two teams in the conference, so
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: it is a big deal. Santa Clara is coming up
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: a very satisfying win on the road at San Francisco,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: which that was a loss for me. I thought it
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot because Santa Clara had had a
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: huge game against Gonzaga the game prior to that, and
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: hung in that game for a decent stretch of it,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: didn't lose by that much, and they had this huge
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: Saint Mary's game on deck, so I'm surprised they played
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: that well against San Francisco, which does tell you, they're
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: a good team and they are still fighting for like
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: bubble positioning in the tournament. But I think if Santa
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: Clara loses this game to Saint Mary's, it won't knock
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: them out of the tournament completely. If they win, I
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: think then that like pretty much steals the deal and
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: they will get a tournament perth. Now for Saint Mary's,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: they're coming in with with momentum here. They won a
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: bunch of games in a row, six games in a
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: row in fact, with a loss again Zaga prior to that.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: It's revenge for Saint Mary's, So I think motivation shouldn't
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: be in questioned here. They will show up trying to
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: get revenge on Santa Clara. But for Saint Mary's they
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: do have Gonzaga on deck, and that's always a massive
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: game as well. But I don't think they're gonna overlook
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: Saint Mary's and the setup or overlooks Santa Clara. Excuse me,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: The setup for Saint Mary's kind of sucks coming into
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: that game against Gonzaga because Saint Mary's is gonna be
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: coming off of this huge game and then having to
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: play a good Zagat team that probably can win without
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of effort against Portland tonight, so Saint Mary's
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: does have the money in this one. They're down for
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: five and a half to four and a half, but
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of tickets eighty four percent of the
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I don't disagree. I would probably lean
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: towards laying it with Saint Mary's in the revenge spot there.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a really good game. I think both
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: these teams are about even, and Ken Palm, I think
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: as far as where they are ranking by Saint Mary's
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: is a little bit higher, only nine ranking spots higher.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: Though interestingly, Saint Mary's is the better deepfense, Santa Clara
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: is the better offense, and I do usually prefer the
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: better deepfense, but I prefer the better deepense as an underdog,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: and that's not the case here. Both teams are similar
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: in lock all, though Saint Mary's is luckier. According to
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: Ken Pom. Now there is a huge pacing contrast. Though
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: Santa Clara might have been able to win that game
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: at home because they speed the game up. This game,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: Saint Mary's might be able to slow it down and
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: frustrate Santa Clara because Saint Mary's definitely wants to slow
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: the pace way down, so that is something they might
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: be able to accomplish in that game as the home
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: favorite a Big ten network at eleven PM, Wisconsin at
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Oregon Wisconsin having to go out to the Pacific coast here,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: kind of a weird spot for them to have to
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: do that coming off a nice win over Iowa. That
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: was a pretty big win for Wisconsin. Wisconsin. I mean,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: they're already gonna have a tournament Berth. I mean they
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: beat Michigan. You know, they're one win away from Mavy
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: twenty wins. They're gonna make the tournament in some capacity.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: Oregon has not a whole lot left to play for him. Man,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: this is their second and last home game and they
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: get to face a tournament team in Wisconsin. Here. Oregon
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: is coming off an upset, and I don't usually like
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: playing teams coming off an upset, but that was against USC.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: It was a road upset. But USC has not been
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: playing well. Maybe Oregon will have some confidence coming back
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: home here. And I do think Oregon is a bit
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: of an unlucky team. According to ken Baum, they might
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: come in and try to muddy this thing up and
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: slow Wisconsin down Wisconsin being a fast paced team now
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: probably doesn't want that to be the case. Wisconsin down
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: from six and a half to five here. I would
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: lean towards taking the points with Oregon in that one.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: It also looks way too easy to lay the points
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: with the Wisconsin, Like what's up with that line? Right?
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: Like Oregon has such a terrible record, but the asmakers
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: are telling you they're not as bad as the record looks.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: Even though ken Bom does have him outside the top
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: one hundred, he does have them in the bottom sixty
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: or so in lock so they're an unlucky team. Oregon
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: and then Fox Sports won really good game here too,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: one of the better games in the night. Utah State
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: at San Diego State. I think the motivation might be
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: more on the San Diego State side in this one,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: so I do lean that way. Utah State's in first
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: place in the Mountain West. They're gonna make the tournament
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: man as an at large. I think even at this
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: point if they don't win the Mountain West Tournament, which
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: they may not, I think they get in anyway. They're
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: on a nice role. Though. They did just lose two
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: on Nevada, but that ended a long wind streak for
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: Utah State, an eight game win streak, And you know
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: what I always talk about when a team loses a
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: long wind streak, a lot of times they'll be hungover
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: into the next game and they're having to travel from
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: Reno to San Diego here, which is not that easy
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: of a thing to do. They already beat San Diego State,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: even though yeah, this is a huge game. San Diego
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: State's only one game behind Utah State and threatening to
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: take over the top spot in the conference. Again, from
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: a tournament perspective, it won't matter that much as far
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: as the Mountain West Tournament because it's a neutral location
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: in Vegas, and the top two teams get the same
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: amount of buys anyway, so it doesn't matter that much.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: It'll determine who they're playing though in the tournament. So
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: getting the one seed, I guess you get to avoid
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: New Mexico if that happens the way it would be
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: set up right now, But I don't know how big
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: of a how big of a deal that is at
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: this point. If these teams really care about something that's
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: multiple games down the road, they don't play five D
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: chess here man, but Utah State I could see them
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: being hung over after losing along win streak. They already
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: beat San Diego State once. They do have Grand Canyon
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: on deck, which is, believe it or not, a revenge
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: game because Grand Canyon beat them at Grand Canyon again.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: I don't really think they're gonna overlook San Diego State,
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: but I think San Diego State the game matters more
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: to them for multiple reasons, and one is that they
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: already lost one Utah State. Another is that San Diego
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: State is a bubble team right now, like Utah State,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: is likely to get into the tournament even if they
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: lose one or two more games. I think they could
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: probably lose three more games and they would still get in,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: maybe two. For San Diego State, they're also on a
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: two game skid. Losing at home to Grand Canyon is
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: a big favorite. That was a bad game, and then
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: I thought they were in a bad spot after that
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: going to Colorado State because they had already beaten Colorado
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: State with the ease and they had this huge game
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: on deck against Utah State and New Mexico after this
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: on CBS, so I think they got caught in a
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: look ahead. Colorado State has been a hot team. San
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: Diego State's coming up that loss. Two pretty bad losses
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: in a row, really though, so I expect a lot
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: of effort from San Diego State in this one. I
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: like san Diego State. Here, where are they at They're
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: going to pick them? I would money line, well, I
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: would look at both markets, right like, if you find
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: a pick them price, that's better, do that. If you
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: find a money line price that's better, do that. That's
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: the way I would play this game. San Diego State
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: is my lean in that game, you know, as far
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: as like what do I think are the strongest plays
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: in college of basketball today? Oh? God, you know? I mean,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: I like san Diego State for sure. What are the
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: other ones I mentioned? Iowa, maybe Creighton. Let me see,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: what are the ones that I even mentioned? Mississippi State,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: I guess maybe makes that list. I don't know, you
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: guys might have to just hopefully you guys watched my
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: whole breakdown there and you remember what I was saying.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: But there's aren't that many that I really loved it.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: Butler was actually one of them, Villanova being into a
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: pretty big sandwich spot there. Yeah, so none of none
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: of them quite make my cut, man. But yeah, I
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: think those are the ones that I like the most
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: out of all of these. So do with that information
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: what you want to I guess, yeah, I think that
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: that would be my my short list. There is those
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: four I just mentioned. I think, yeah, it's it's crazy
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: looking at how awful the slate is to me, Man,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: all right, we're gonna go to NBA. Actually we'll go
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: to NHL because NHL is back, and then we'll do
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: NBA to finish this off. It's a short NBA card
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: and the NBA is where I have a play, so
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: I usually do it in that order anyway. But let
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: me I'll take a quick break here. I'll be right back,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: and you guys can look at the NHL board while
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: I come back, and maybe you will be bored. But
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about NHL in a second. H all right,
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: NHL here, NHL has returned, Man from the long Olympic break,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: and I'll repeat what I said about like the All
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: Star break with the NBA, I treated like a bye,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: basically like a football bye, where I think that having
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: a break can disrupt whatever momentum you had going into
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: the break. So if a team was really hot going
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: into the break, I think it's a negative and I
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: think it could stop their momentum and you want to
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: look to fade them coming out of the break. But
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: if a team was on a really bad stretch going
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: into the break, I think the break can help them
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: and they use it to fix things and they actually
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: focus and they can come out with more focus. So
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: I like to be on those teams generally. Now, one
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: thing I will say that I forgot to mention about
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: the NBA and the second day that play has resumed,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: because there are gonna be teams on back to back tomorrow,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: and you have to treat that back to back differently
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: than you do like when you're in this you know,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: when you're in the middle of the season, a back
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: to back is usually bad, right because there's no rest.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: But the back to back after a huge break, like
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: teams that play tonight, some of these teams like New Jersey,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: I think is one they're gonna play again tomorrow. It's
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: not necessarily gonna be a bad thing that they're playing
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: a back to because it's a team that has all
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: this rest because they've been on a huge break, So
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: playing back to back isn't as bad of a thing.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: And a lot of times, the team that has that
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: one game under their belt already plays better. And that's
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: something that I talk about, like in the tournament picture
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: and whatever. Like it's a very counterintuitive, but like a
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: team having a tournament game under their belt already, that's
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: why these teams that play in like the playing games
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: in the tournament whatever, they actually do pretty well historically
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: in the first game in the round of sixty four
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: because they already have a game out of the way
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: under their belt and they have that momentum coming into
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: the next game, you know what I mean. So like
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: if a team wins today and it's not like a
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: monster win or anything, and they have to play again tomorrow,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: it actually might be a positive because they shed the
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: russ you know what I mean. Now you've played, you've
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: got to win. You got some momentum now, So that's
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: the way you gotta look at that second game. So
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about that type of scenario tomorrow. But first
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: game up as Buffalo at New Jersey. Well, you know,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: the first thing I kind of thought was, well, New
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: Jersey has Jack Hughes, and he has been the the
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: guy that's being talked about because you know, he broke
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: his teeth in the in the Olympic gold medal game
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: there had the game winning goals. Everybody's talking about him.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: Does that mean he's gonna be in like a personal
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: letdown Spotier because he plays for New Jersey. Maybe, but
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's going to affect the entire
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: team that way, you know what I mean. So I
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: wouldn't rely just on that part of the handicap. No,
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: absolutely not. The first four is a terrible idea to
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: begin with. Those teams should not be playing for a
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: high seed. That's absolutely ridiculous. There's no way they could
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: do that because the whole point of the first four
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: is you barely got into the tournament, so you have
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: to be playing for like a lower seed. If anything,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: if anything, what they should do is they should have
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: all the worst teams playing for like sixteen fifteen seeds
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: or whatever, or have playans for all the sixteen seeds.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: I mean is what they should do. It should be
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: like pretty much meaningless, but you know, it gives those
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: like small teams like a chance to play on a
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: national stage, So that I think that's really what they
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: should do. Playing for a high seed is absolutely ridiculous.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: It would be unbelievably disruptive to the tournament. It makes
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: no fucking sense at all, Like you earn your high
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: seed by doing really well during the season, and those
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: high seeds should be the best teams. So no, absolutely not.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: The first four shouldn't even be a thing at all. Really,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: Buffalo at New Jersey. Now, as far as what I
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: just said about Hughes, I don't think that New Jersey
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: is gonna be in like in a mode where it's
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: gonna be some sort of letdown mode or something like that,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: because they're playing Buffalo here and Buffalo's got a good record,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: So I don't think New Jersey is gonna come into
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: this game overlooking Buffalo. Buffalo, though they did go into
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: the break on two losses, including one against Pittsburgh. You
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: could see why they lost that game though, because they
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: had a huge overtime game against Tampa the game before
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: that beat Florida the game before that on the road.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: They were returning home playing a third game in four days,
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: all in different cities, so the setup for them against
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh was terrible. I don't know if I gave out
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh as a play in that game. Or not, but
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: that was a horrible spot. So Buffalo, you can explain
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: that loss. Having the break might help them refocus come
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: out with some effort here. One problem is they do
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: have a big game on day, have three big games
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: on deck really against Florida, Tampa, Vegas, so they might
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: overlook a kind of mediocre New Jersey team here. I
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: think New Jersey should show up because they went into
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: the break on a bad stretch as well. They lost
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: three games in a row. They were not playing good hockey,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: so maybe the break will help them coming into this one.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: And they don't have a bigger game on deck. So
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: how do we handicap this game? Well, it's pretty difficult,
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: to be honest. The market reid is saying New Jersey here,
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: Buffalo up minus one oh five to minus one o eight,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the ticket, sixty nine percent of the
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: cash on them, So Buffalo is a very public side.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: Looks too easy to play Buffalo. So the market read
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: is saying New Jersey. But I really don't think it's
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Buffalo though, unless you think they're
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking ahead, which I guess is possible. But
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: the fact that they went into the break. On a
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: negative note, I don't really think they're gonna overlook this game.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: So that's my concern there. You know, I guess market
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: Reed is saying New Jersey. I don't even know if
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: I want to say I slightly lean that way or not.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: It's just it's a game. I don't want anything anything
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: to do with Philadelphia at Washington. Philadelphia went into the
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: break on a loss to Ottawa, which is not great.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: They were actually on a pretty bad run of losing
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: four five of their last six games, so that might
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: be a helpful break for them. However, they're playing the
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: one team they beat during that stratch, Washington they beat
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: on February third, and that's who they're playing here, so
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: there may be a little bit of a revenge mode
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: and for Washing in here. Washington did go into the
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: break on a win, but it was only against Nashville,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: but they did win four of their last five, and
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: they do a Vegas on deck. But I'm not sure
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: they're going to overlook the last team that beat them
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: prior to the break, which is Philadelphia. So Washington might
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: show up for that reason. So that's my concern with
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: this game. There are conflicting factors here, because I think
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: momentum wise favors Philadelphia coming into this because they could
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: use that break more effectively. But the revenge scenario for
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Washington is not to be overlooked. And the money is
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: actually coming in on Washington fifty two tickets, eighty percent
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Washington. They're down for minus one
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: sixty to minus one fifty. I probably agree with Washington
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: in that one, but it's not a strong opinion. TNT, HBO, Max,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: True TV as a doubleheader here, not televising a college
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: basketball here, and they're losing the Those networks are losing
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: March Madness to which is really really bad because and
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: including CBS, like that family of networks including CBS has
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: had March Madis for like its entire existence, and now
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: it's gonna go somewhere else. I absolutely hate that, although
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's happening yet, but it's still bad.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Tampa Bay is this game the first game
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: of the doubleheader. I mean, this game is somewhat of
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: a mismatch. Tampa Bay is clearly the better team here.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: Toronto went into the break on a really nice run
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: as well. They won three games in a row though, well,
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say really nice. It was three
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: road wins, which is pretty good, but they beat Vancouver
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: and Calgary, who suck, and then they beat Edmonton, so
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: they did finish with one really big win. So the
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: break might disrupt their momentum. So the break did not
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: come at a good time for Toronto here, although they
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: might still get up for a game against Tampa Bay
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: because it is Tampa Bay, and Tampa Bay went into
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: the break on a very good note as well. They
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: went into the break five wins in a row, including
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: winning that whatever it was, the uh fake outdoor game
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: or whatever the hell it was against the Bruins, which actually, no, wait,
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: what game was I forget what game that was because
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: the yeah, it wasn't the Winter Classic, it was something else.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: It was a bullshit game, or the Bruins blew a
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: massive lead. Whatever. Then Tampa beat Buffalo in overtime. Both
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: those games went into overtime. Then they murdered Florida going
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: into the breaks, so this might be a very disruptive
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: break for Tampa and they have a huge game on
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: deck against Carolina, who's one of the best teams in
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: the league. So Tampa Bay might not take Toronto totally
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: seriously here, I don't love how it sets up for Toronto,
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: but I would probably have to lean towards Toronto. I
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: guess on the puck line here because they are a
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: big underdog. Tampa down from minus two forty to minus
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: two ten, already seventy four percent of tickets, only seventy
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on them. I would lean
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: to taking the puck line with Toronto probably in that one.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Dallas. Seattle's not a over good team. They
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: did go into the All Star Break, or excuse you,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: I keep saying the All Star Break. They went into
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: the Olympic Break on a nice run. Though Seattle had
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: won five of their last six games, including winning their
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: final game going into the break. They're not gonna overlook Dallas.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a big game against Dallas. Dallas did
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: go into the break on a good note as well,
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: Dallas on a longer win streak. They went into the
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: break on one of the longest win streaks six wins
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: in a row for Dallas, although it finished with a
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: not great win over Saint Louis, but might be a
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: disruptive break for Dallas. I believe Desmith is actually slated
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: to be in net tonight, so you're gonna get Dallas's
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: lesser goaltender and Net here For Dallas, I would lean
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: to Seattle in this one, probably in a price range
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: where it's one of those bets where I would recommend
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: doing like a split bet with part of it on
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: the puck line, part of it on the money line,
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: to make your own plus one puck line. Dallas is
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: already down for minus one seventy eight to minus one
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: sixty two, eighty six percent of the tickets in seventy
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: five of the cash on Dallas. They're Republic side. I
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: would agree with fading Dallas there and leaning towards Seattle,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: although I don't love it enough, but that's the way
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: I would lean. Colorado at Utah. Interesting line in this
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: one where Colorado looks way too easy to play with
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: a very small money line on Colorado here. Colorado, after
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: they were just outstanding throughout most of the season, they've
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: been bad since like the beginning of the year. Basically
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: they've been like a five hundred team, which is not good.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: So maybe the break came at a good time. Even
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: though they won two of their last three games. Maybe
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: they needed the break to try to, you know, regain
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: some of that former dominance. But having this one road
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: game against Utah looks a little weird. And they do
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: have a game against Minnesota tomorrow that might be considered
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: to be better, Like that might be considered to be
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: a bigger game. I should say, Utah. I think you
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: know you're gonna get focused out of Utah, even though
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: they went into the break on two straight wins, so
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: that break could disrupt their momentum a little bit. But
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: they'll give you an effort against Colorado. Man and then
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is going to have to play Utah on a
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: back to back after they play Colorado, so that might
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: be a game. I mean, I don't want to say
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: that's a game to look towards Utah though, because both
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: teams are going to be coming off of playing against Colorado,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: so we have to see how these games play out.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: But in this game, the money's coming in on Utah,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: and I don't really have a reason to disagree with it.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: It looks way too easy to play Colorado. Here down
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: for minus one forty to minus one twenty two, fifty
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets, sixty five percent of the cash
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: on Utah, the money coming in in Utah. I do
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: not disagree with Utah in that one, but it's I
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: don't really have a great read on the game. Win
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: a bag at Vancouver. Now, when I first saw this
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: on the schedule, I was thinking, well, this might be
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: the situation where maybe you are going to have to
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: look towards a letdown component to this, because we'd be
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: talking about a goaltender, and the goaltender has a huge
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: impact on the game. And we're talking about Hellabook, who
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: plays for Winnipeg, coming off a monster effort in the
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: gold medal game where he had forty one saves I
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: think in the game and was just absolutely insane in
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: the game, and he should have been the MVP. He
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: was outstanding in the game. But then I looked at
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: this game and I'm like, oh, Winnipeg's laying a small
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: price here against a terrible Vancouver team, a goalie that
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: could be in like a personal letdown spot here. This
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: might be a play in Vancouver. Then I looked and
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg has already listed Camray as the starting goalie here,
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: So Hellabook is gonna get a break, which makes sense
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: because he just played that huge game in the Olympics,
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: so he's not playing for Winnipeg in this game. So
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: that letdown spot. I mean, maybe look to play in
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg's next game or whatever, but we can't do it
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: here because you know, Hellabook's not playing in this game.
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: So Winnipeg did also go into the break on a
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: really bad note. Well, they lost three of four, They
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: lost their last two games. They had an ugly home
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: loss to Montreal five to one going into the break,
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: so you know, Winnipeg might show up for that reason.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: They do have Anaheim on deck and that is a
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: decent game, so I guess there is the argument they
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: might still not take Vancouver. Seriously, Vancouver went into the
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: break on three straight losses as well, so the break
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: might help them disrupt that momentum. They might show up
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: for a game against Winnipeg. The money looks like it's
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: sort of indicating on Winnipeg. They're down for minus one
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: thirty five to minus one thirty eighty eight percent of tickets,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash on them. I think
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: I probably still lean towards Vancouver. It just looks too
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: easy to play Winnipeg here, even though Vancouver is complete ass.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: Maybe there is some value getting them at a home
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: underdog price coming out of the break. The second TNT
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: True TVHBO Max game is an interesting one with Vegas
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: and the Kings because this is like a delayed zigzag spot,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: which is bizarre. These two teams played in the last
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: the last day before the break. These teams played each
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: other and Vegas won four to one, so this is
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: like a delayed rematch between these two teams. I don't
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: know if I've ever seen this, like an extended break
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: where the same two teams that played each other going
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: into the break are now playing each other again and
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: they're flipping venues. So Vegas has to go to the Kings.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: Here should be a revenge spot for the Kings, right
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: because Vegas did beat them at Vegas right going into
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: the break, and Vegas went into the break on a
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: two game win streak, so you know the break might
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: disrupt vegas Is momentum a little bit. You gotta think
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: they might take LA a little bit unseeriously here, But
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: if you look at how that game played out, I mean,
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: the one good thing for LA is that they did
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: outshoot Vegas quite a bit, so You could make the
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: argument that the stats kind of tell you that LA
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: did play better than the final score looks, but maybe
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: they didn't because Vegas had sixty two percent of the
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: faceoffs almost so Vegas did kind of dominate possession in
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: the game. And I think LA just was firing up
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: bad shots later in the game because they were losing
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: the game four to nothing. So I don't think that
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: the statue really indicates that it was that misleading of
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: a result, although four to one is always going to
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: be a little bit misleading, but Vegas did have the
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: upper hand in that game. Still, it's an opportunity for
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: LA to zigzag here. But the problem I also have
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: with LA is they're terrible at home. Like, I don't
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: know if I ever want to play the Kings at home. Man,
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: maybe in select spots, maybe you do. And I probably
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: do still lean towards them in this game, but I
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: don't think I could lay a price like this, a
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: favorite price like this at home when they're eight eleven
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: and seven at home. That is horrible. Eight wins and
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: eighteen losses at home. I just don't think I could
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: do it. Man. Vegas is not bad on the road.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: Thirteen eight and seven not horrible for LA. Of course,
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: they went into the break on a losing street. They
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: lost three games in a row, culminating and losing to Vegas.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: So this is a zigzag spot and a momentum spot
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: that both do set up for LA. Here are an
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: anti public side. The public is coming in on Vegas,
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: and you know what I talk about, a public underdog
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: is not the way that you want to look in
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: any sport like really, so I do still have to
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: lean to LA in this game, but I don't think
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: I could put it on my card. I mean maybe
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: at the opener at minus one fifteen that was a
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: decent price, but at minus one forty two, I just
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: don't see being able to do it. Although I think
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: still the only way I could really play this game
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: is the Kings on the money line. But if it
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: gets up past minus one fifty, I guess a split
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: that puck line money line, But it's getting so pricey
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: on a bad home team, I just don't think I
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: could do it. Seventy two percent of tickets fifty seven
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Vegas. They are a public
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: side with less than the money on them. Situationally, I
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: would have to agree with the Kings, but some factors
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: that make me not like it. And then Edmonton is
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: at Anaheim. Edmonton went into the break on a bad note,
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: three losses in a row, losing to Calgary to finish
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: it off. That's pretty bad, dude. So for Edmonton, they
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: should use that break effectively. They should come out of
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: the break with some fire. I mean, this is an
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: Edmonton team, it's not a bad team. And losing three
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: straight games badly, giving up four plus goals and all
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: of them going into the break, especially losing to Calgary,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: They're little brother basically in Alberta. That's not good. So
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: I think they will show up with some effort here.
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: I think that break should help them. The break might
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: be disruptive to Anaheim because they went into the break
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: on two wins against Vegas and then Seattle. Having a
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: break when you go into it on a win streak
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: is probably not a good thing. Man. Anaheim was one
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: of the hottest teams actually, even though they lost a
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: couple of games, including to Edmonton. So that's one concern
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: is that Anaheim might still show up here because Edmonton
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: is a big opponent and they kind of embarrassed Anaheim
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: the last time they played in Edmonton seven to four
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: on January twenty sixth. Be Anaheim did win seven or
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: excusing nine of their last eleven games. So there are
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: a team coming out of a break that my disrupt
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: a heater that they were on. I like Edmonton in
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: this game Anaheim, seventy six percent of the tickets are
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: on them, fifty three percent of the cash on Edmonton.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: I will have to agree with the Edmonton side and
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: that one. If Anaheim is coming off like a bigger
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: game or they had an even longer wind streak disrupted,
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: I might give you that as a play. But yes,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: I do agree with Edmonton and that one, and that
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: is a pretty strong market. Read agree with me on
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: Edmonton there, even though they initially dropped on the money line,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: maybe because of a goaltender change, although even I don't
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: even know about that, because I think it is going
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: to be Jarry in net or however you pronounce his name.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: So that's the NHL board man. And then we do
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: have some NBA as well. There's an ESPN doubleheader with
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: two pretty good games with the first game up is
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City at Detroit. I do have a play in
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: the NBA. Like I said, so we will hit that.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: It's not in this game, though. SGA is still out
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: for Oklahoma City, so that sucks for ESPN because they
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: won't get a full Oklahoma They won't get a full
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: ok See team here. OKAC is on a back to back.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: They won again yesterday against Toronto, but it is still
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: a back to back with travel. Although Toronto Detroit is
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: not a huge travel leg and it's a big ESPN game,
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: so I expect Oklahoma City will show up here, but
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: playing a third game in four days, all in different
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: cities is not exactly easy. Detroit has the rest edge year.
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: Detroit lost their last game to San Antonio on Monday,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: which I told you I liked the Spurs in that
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: one because I thought you might get Detroit looking ahead
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: a little bit to this game potentially, even though I
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: thought that was a big game for both teams. But
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: Detroit did drop the game. But Detroit has the rest
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: edge and the travel edge because they're staying at home. However,
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: they lost a six game win streak, so that's something
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: I don't love. When a team loses a six game
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: win streak, a lot of times they will be hung
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: over into the next game. So what do we do
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: with this game? I mean, I'm staying away. I still
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: lean to Detroit, but you do have to lay seven
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: and a half now up from five and have it.
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: Some of that is because Sga is out. It looks
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: like Jalen Williams might be hurt. I mean, he's all
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: these Thunder guys are always dealing with some injuries, man.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: So that has to do with why the line is
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: where it is. I mean, it looks like maybe the
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: number is a little bit too high on the Pistons,
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: so the money is coming in that way. Fifty three
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the Thunder sixty two percent of
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Pistons. Generally, I agree with the Pistons.
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: I agree with the situation on the Pistons. Seven and
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: a half seems a bit much, man. Oklahoma City, I mean,
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they should really be that big
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: of an underdog against anybody, even if it is on
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: the road against a good Detroit team. Some of that
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: is probably because Okay sees on a back to back too,
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: so the odds makers always skew the line against the
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: team on the that's on the back to back. Sometimes
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: too much. So I still agree with Detroit, but it's
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bit of a price to lay there.
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: So that is not my play san Antonio at Toronto.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: You definitely could argue San Antonio is in a letdown
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: spot because they just beat Detroit. Big win for san
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: Antoo man, second straight road game here now, but unfortunately
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: they only have Brooklyn on deck. If they had the
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: Knicks on deck, which is their next opponent after that,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: I might be saying, yeah, we're gonna do it with Toronto.
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: This is a sandwich spot. But the way it is
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: right now, it's it's just a letdown spot. I th
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: for the Spurs. Toronto is coming up a pretty big
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: game against Oklahoma City though, so I can't do it.
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: Toronto played yesterday, like I said, and actually that game
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: was close, with like maybe four minutes to go. I
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: think the game was tied even though okay seen one
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: by nine. Toronto put it in a huge effort in
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: that game. So I cannot play Toronto here. Man. Both
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: teams are in fade spots. Toronto is also not a
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: very good home team, so I gotta stay away from
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: this one. The money is actually coming in on the
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: Spurs up from six and a half to seven and
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: a half. Spurs getting a ton of respect in the market,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: such as they're laying that many points on the road
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: against a team with the winning record. That's pretty crazy.
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: Eighty three percent of tickets ninety five percent of the
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: cash on the Spurs. Of course, part of the res
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: and again for the line being that high is because
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: the Raptors played yesterday and the Spurs didn't, and well, yeah,
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: I expect the Spurs to win that game. The spot's
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: bad for both teams. I have to stay away from it.
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: I think you know, if you forced me to lean,
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 1: I would probably still lean to the Spurs. But I
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: can't lay a price like that on the road, man,
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: especially coming off a big win. No way I could
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: do it. Golden State at Memphis. This is an ugly
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: game with teams that are without a lot of their starters.
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: Let's just say Golden State just took a really bad
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: loss yesterday to New Orleans. They were coming off a
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: big win over Denvers. That was a letdown spot. I
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: think I said I liked New Orleans in that game yesterday.
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: They actually did win and the New Orleans cover I
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: guess they probably must have, right. Yeah, they were one
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: and a half point dogs in the game, So it's
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: a bad performance from Golden State. Even though they're on
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: a back to back, they might show up in this game.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: But they do have a revenge game against the Lakers
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: on ABC on deck, so that is a big game
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: for Golden State coming so there is the Warrior that
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: they might look ahead. Memphis is in an ugly situation themselves.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: They haven't played since Monday, they're stay at home, and
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: they took a loss to the Kings, who had lost
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: like sixteen games in a row. And I believe my
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: exact words were, if the Kings were going to win
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: a game, it would be a game like that one
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: against another team that basically has none of their starters
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: playing anymore, Memphis, And indeed Sacramento did win that game,
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: so Memphis is coming off that. That's an ugly, ugly loss.
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: So both teams are off ugly losses. Golden State has
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: a potential look ahead to the Lakers, and Golden State
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, so I would probably have to lean to
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: Memphis here, and they're actually getting points. The Warriors are
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: up to a four point favorite. Eighty nine percent of
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety nine percent of the cash on the Warriors,
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how much to read into that
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: cash percentage, but the Warriors will be a public side here.
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry is still out for the Warriors, so we
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: don't have to worry about like a reverse injured player
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: theory coming into play here, so that's not happening. Of course,
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: we know Butler is out for the season, so no
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: change there. But that's one where you're actually playing. If
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: you take Memphis, you're actually playing against a team that's
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: still laying points on the road despite being on a
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: back to back, which is pretty crazy. So maybe there
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of live value still there on
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: the Memphis side in that one. Sacramento at Houston, Sacramento
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: finally broke that long losey streak, man, so maybe that
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: gives them some confidence, some new momentum, Because when things
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: are going that badly and you've lost sixteen whatever games
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: in a row, if you finally win a game, it's like,
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: I think that monkey is off your back and now
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: you can play a lot looser. You're not like that
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: embarrassed of a team anymore. You finally got a win.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: You can just play a little bit better now, so
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: maybe Sacramento will come into this game with a little
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: bit of momentum. They'll probably show up for a game
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: AGA's Houston. Houston's coming up beating Utah though, which wasn't
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: a big deal really. They do have Orlando Miami on deck.
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, any game is gonna be bigger than a
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: Sacramento game. So I would actually still probably lean to
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: the Kings plus the points here, But no strong opinion
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: for me on this one. The Rockets down from fourteen
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: and a half to fourteen. We have seventy two percent
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: of the tickets in, ninety seven percent of the cash
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: on the Rockets, so it looks like some of the
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the Rockets. I don't have a
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: strong opinion one way or the other. Although with a
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: low total laying that many points of the Rockets against
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: a Sacramento team that might have some newfound confidence, I
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: don't like that idea, so I still lean slightly towards Sacramento.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: Next up is the best bet. And then there's one
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: other game to talk about. As ugly as it is, man,
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: we're gonna take the Milwaukee Bucks plus nine without Yiannis
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland. Cleveland's the talk of the town right now, man,
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: or the talk of the NBA. They're hot. Everybody's pretty
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: much saying they're now the favorite to win the Eastern Conference.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: Everybody loves Cleveland. Oh yeah, getting James Harden and now
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's this great team. I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: you know me, I don't like Harden as far as
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: like a chemistry guy. I think he might never win
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: a championship because, like just team chemistry wise, he hurts.
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: But this Milwaukee team, by the way, they're playing sneakily
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: pretty good even though they're without Giannis. Right now, this
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee team's kind of coming together. I mean, look at
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: what they've done recently. They've won eight of their last
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: ten games. That's not bad. Yeah, I know they're stepping
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: up and classed by Cleveland, but they're playing at home.
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: They're a huge underdog. I know they're on a back
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: to back, but both teams are on a back to back.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: And yeah, Milwaukee had a nice upset win yesterday against Miami,
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: and you know, usually I'm not gonna like to play
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: on a team that pulled off an upset like Milwaukee did.
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: But they're playing Cleveland here, man, So you know you're
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: probably gonna get another effort out of them here. They're
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: staying at home, which is a lot better than the
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: spot for Cleveland. Cleveland just had a very satisfying win
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: against the New York Knicks, who a lot of people,
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: including me, are saying that the Knicks are one of
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: their main competition for winning the Eastern Conference. That was
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: a monster win against the Knicks. In the game prior
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: to that, they played Oklahoma City on the road and
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: blew the game. They were beating Oklahoma City for the
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: majority of that game. I think. So Cleveland's coming off
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: two monster games and they have a huge ESPN game
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: on deck against Detroit. So this is a sandwich spot, man,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: big time sandwich spot. Even though generally I would probably
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: stay away with Milwaukee having pulled off an upset in
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: their last game, but both teams on the back to back.
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's staying at home, Cleveland is having to travel to
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee for this, and then they have to bounce back
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: to Detroit after this. I see this as a major
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot for Cleveland. Here, man, we'll play the Bucks.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 1: Seventy seven percent of tickets eighty one percent of the
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: cash on Cleveland. This is the best I got for today, Man,
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: Calves are laying nine on the road. Let's get back
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: and get some wins in the NBA finally, man, because
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: the NBA historic, It has been my best sport and it
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: has not been good recently. So we need to get
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: back on track in the NBA, and my reids in
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: the NBA are usually good. And then we do finish
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: it off with my Boston Celtics, who are unfortunately on
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: a back to back at Denver here on ESPN. Now,
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: the Celtics do have a road revenge angle here because
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: the other time they played Denver this year they lost
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: at home by one point, I think. But the Celtics
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: have already won this road trip. They've won three games
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: in a row. Seems like the Celtics are kind of
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: mentally like, we can't take this twentieth loss year guys,
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: as they keep winning. But this is going to be
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: a difficult to ask. Man. They're playing a third game
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: in four and as all in different cities, having to
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: go into elevation, they got Denver here. Denver is not
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 1: a fully intact team, but of course neither are the
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: Celtics Celtics without Tatum, but they've been playing surprisingly well
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: without him. Denver, it's kind of the usual. We know
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon is still out. He's coming back soon. Jamal
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 1: Murray's a game time decision, so it something to watch there.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: He's probable. I mean, I assumed he would play, so
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: we got that going on. Jalen Brown's a game time decision.
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: He did not play last night, by the way, so
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: that was one thing I did not consider as far
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: as that handicap for the Celtics. So the Celtics might
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: have actually played with a little bit more effort because
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: Brown was out, So that sucks. I didn't realize that,
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: but I still really liked the spot for the Suns there. Brown.
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming he'll play. I think it was probably more
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: of a rest day for him. They said it was
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: a bruised knee, but I'm pretty sure he's gonna play.
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: I think they probably just wanted to rest their best
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: player and get him ready for this Denver game. So
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: that kind of tells you the Celtics are actually taking
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: this game seriously. But the Celtics played yesterday and Denver
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: did not, and Denver's coming up kind of an ugly
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: loss at Golden State, although they are returning home from
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: a road trip, but not a long road trip. You
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: know it was a road trip. Well it was almost
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: a week. They were on the road the entire time
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: after the All Star break, So yeah, I mean you
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: could argue, yeah, it's a return home spot where these
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: guys have been away for a while. They do have
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: to get back to home life. Maybe a little bit
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: of a distraction there. They have more rest, though they've
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: been off since Sunday. They took a loss to Golden
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: State on Sunday. They do have Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State,
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City on deck, which is a huge game as well.
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: Though I don't think they're gonna overlook Boston though, so
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean towards Denver. But the money is disagreeing,
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: So you know, I'm gonna root for the Celtics and
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. But Denver down from four to
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: three and a half. Here sixty seven percent of tickets
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: on them, fifty three percent of the cash on them,
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: so less of the money on Denver than the amount
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: of tickets. So the market Reid is saying Celtics for now.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: Plus the points but we'll see what happens. Man, I'm
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 1: not touching that game. That's it. Once again. My only
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: play on this huge Wednesday board is the Milwaukee Bucks
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: plus the points. That's what we're going with. That's gonna
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: do it. Learn it Tode on Instagram, Learn it tode
• 1:47:59
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• 1:48:01
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• 1:48:04
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• 1:48:06
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• 1:48:08
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• 1:48:11
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• 1:48:14
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• 1:48:17
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• 1:48:28
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• 1:48:31
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• 1:48:34
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• 1:48:36
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• 1:48:38
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• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: me out there on Apple on Spotify and then loser
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: cast We had a new episode last night shorthanded as
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: far as our lineup last night, but it was another
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: fun episode. We nominated some losers. You can go check
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: that out on the Loser cast and that will do it. Man.
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it, and I know I went early today. Thanks
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: over hanging out early in the day, but I had
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: to do it. You know, We'll see I might be
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: a hosting my mom here because she still doesn't have power.
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: So I'm like, all right, well come to my place.
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: We got warmth, baby, we got heat that's gonna do it.
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: Not the Miami heat that's gonna do it. Peace guys
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: until tomorrow.