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“1/6 Truth and 1/6 Truthers.” · Pod Save America

0:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
0:22
Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
0:23
Speaker 3: On today's show, the first day of the House's January
0:25
Speaker 3: 6th investigation goes pretty poorly for Republicans. Dan talks to
0:29
Speaker 3: White House COVID Equity Task Force Chair Marcela Nunez-Smith about
0:33
Speaker 3: Biden's big vaccination speech today. And we take a look
0:36
Speaker 3: at some of the special elections happening in Texas, Ohio,
0:39
Speaker 3: and California. But first, check out our sports podcast, Take Line,
0:43
Speaker 3: with Jason Concepcion and Renee Montgomery to hear smart, funny
0:46
Speaker 3: analysis of all the latest sports news with amazing guests.
0:50
Speaker 3: like NBA Hall of Famer Chris Bosh and the Kid Miro.
0:53
Speaker 3: And don't miss the latest episode of With Friends Like
0:55
Speaker 3: These to hear Ana Marie Cox and ESPN journalist Alyssa
0:57
Speaker 3: Roenick talk about how Simone Biles has changed the way society.
1:00
Speaker 1: Views female gymnasts.
1:02
Speaker 3: You can listen to Take Line and With Friends Like
1:04
Speaker 3: These wherever you get your podcasts.
1:08
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the news.
1:10
Speaker 3: The bipartisan committee investigating the January 6th attack on the U.S.
1:13
Speaker 3: Capitol held its first hearing on Tuesday, where two D.C.
1:17
Speaker 3: police officers and two Capitol police officers delivered incredibly moving
1:22
Speaker 3: and sometimes horrifying testimony about the domestic terrorists who violently
1:26
Speaker 3: assaulted them while attempting to stop Congress from certifying the election.
1:31
Speaker 3: Here's some of that testimony as well as a reaction
1:32
Speaker 3: from one of the two Republicans on the committee, Adam Kinzinger.
1:35
Speaker 3: And just so you all know, there is some incredibly
1:38
Speaker 3: upsetting language in these clips, but we thought it was
1:41
Speaker 3: very important to play them. So just wanted to give
1:44
Speaker 3: everyone that warning before we start. I, too.
1:46
Speaker 2: Was being crushed by the rioters. I could feel my.
1:50
Speaker 4: myself losing oxygen and recall thinking to myself, this is
1:54
Speaker 4: how I'm going to die, defending this entrance.
1:58
Speaker 5: I was grabbed, beaten, tased, all while being called a
2:02
Speaker 5: traitor to my country. I was at risk of being
2:06
Speaker 5: stripped of and killed with my own firearm as I
2:10
Speaker 5: heard chants of kill him with his own gun. I
2:13
Speaker 5: could still hear those words in my head today. What
2:17
Speaker 5: makes the struggle harder and more painful is to know
2:21
Speaker 5: so many of my fellow citizens, including so many of
2:25
Speaker 5: the people I put my life at risk to defend,
2:28
Speaker 5: are downplaying or outright denying what happened. I feel like
2:34
Speaker 5: I went to hell and back to protect them and
2:36
Speaker 5: the people in this room. But too many are now
2:39
Speaker 5: telling me that hell doesn't exist or that hell actually
2:43
Speaker 5: wasn't that bad. The indifference shown to my colleagues is disgraceful.
2:51
Speaker 4: I told them to just leave the Capitol, and in
2:53
Speaker 4: response they yelled, no man, this is our house. President
2:58
Speaker 4: Trump invited us here. We're here to stop the steal.
3:03
Speaker 4: That prompted a torrent of racial epithets. One woman in
3:07
Speaker 4: a pink MAGA shirt.
3:09
Speaker 2: Yelled, you hear that guys?
3:11
Speaker 1: This nigger voted for Joe Biden.
3:15
Speaker 4: Then the crowd, perhaps around 20 people, joined in screaming, Boo,
3:21
Speaker 4: fucking nigger. No one had ever, ever called me a
3:27
Speaker 4: nigger while wearing the uniform of a Capitol Police officer.
3:32
Speaker 4: In the days following the attempted insurrection, other black officers
3:36
Speaker 4: shared with me their own stories of racial abuse on
3:39
Speaker 4: January 6th. One officer told me he had never, in
3:45
Speaker 4: his entire 40 years of life, been called a nigger
3:48
Speaker 4: to his face and that streak ended on January 6th.
3:54
Speaker 6: Like most Americans, I'm frustrated that six months after a
3:57
Speaker 6: deadly insurrection breached the United States Capitol for several hours
4:02
Speaker 6: on live television, we still don't know exactly what happened.
4:06
Speaker 7: Why?
4:08
Speaker 6: Because many in my party have treated this as just
4:11
Speaker 6: another partisan fight.
4:14
Speaker 1: Dan, I was telling... Love it.
4:16
Speaker 3: And Tommy yesterday that I feel like the news of
4:18
Speaker 3: the last several years has drained my reservoir of outrage.
4:23
Speaker 3: So it's harder to become outraged by political news. But
4:27
Speaker 3: listening to the testimony from Tuesday, that got me there.
4:31
Speaker 1: That got me there. What was what was your reaction?
4:35
Speaker 2: It was exactly the same. I mean, this is it's
4:38
Speaker 2: so infuriating that. This happened, and the very people whose
4:46
Speaker 2: lives were at risk, who were being protected by these
4:48
Speaker 2: police officers, are downplaying it, dismissing it, in some cases
4:52
Speaker 2: mocking these police officers, pretending like it didn't happen, treating
4:55
Speaker 2: the people who did this, people who said those horrible things,
4:58
Speaker 2: who did those horrible things, who threatened to hang the
5:01
Speaker 2: vice president, treating them as heroes, revolutionary heroes, political prisoners.
5:09
Speaker 2: I think any American who sees this should be rightfully outraged.
5:13
Speaker 2: Any person with a human capacity for empathy would be
5:15
Speaker 2: rightfully outraged by this. But I think for people who
5:18
Speaker 2: have actually worked on Capitol Hill, it is even more
5:21
Speaker 2: mind-boggling because every day you walk in that building, you
5:24
Speaker 2: and I both worked there after 9-11, these people, the
5:27
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill officers are keeping us safe. They keep these
5:29
Speaker 2: members of Congress safe. Every single day, you know, we're
5:32
Speaker 2: talking about Kevin McCarthy, but every single day, the Capitol
5:34
Speaker 2: Police shows up at Kevin McCarthy's house and picks him
5:36
Speaker 2: up and takes him to work. They stick a few
5:38
Speaker 2: feet behind him all day long to keep him safe.
5:40
Speaker 2: They drive him home. They stay outside his house. And
5:42
Speaker 2: the people who keep him safe, who he spends 24
5:45
Speaker 2: hours a day with, he is dismissing this. These Capitol
5:48
Speaker 2: Police officers are a part of the fabric on Capitol Hill.
5:52
Speaker 2: And to take this and just dismiss it and be
5:55
Speaker 2: able to walk in that building every day, look these
5:58
Speaker 2: people in the eye and act like this is just
5:59
Speaker 2: so fucking infuriating that it's truly hard to stand.
6:04
Speaker 3: I also think that we got to see these police
6:06
Speaker 3: officers puncture the absurd conspiracy that that this was just
6:11
Speaker 3: a bunch of fucking tourists, or this was a few
6:14
Speaker 3: bad apples, or most people were there peacefully, Officer Gannell said,
6:20
Speaker 3: was responding to Trump saying, oh, it was hugs and kisses.
6:24
Speaker 3: The protesters were giving hugs and kisses to the police officers.
6:27
Speaker 3: And he said, if that was hugs and kisses, then
6:29
Speaker 3: we should all go to his house and do the
6:30
Speaker 3: same to him. Instead of sending the military, instead of
6:33
Speaker 3: sending the support or telling his supporters to stop this nonsense,
6:36
Speaker 3: he egged them on to continue fighting. All of them
6:38
Speaker 3: were telling us Trump sent us. And I do think
6:41
Speaker 3: that's an important part of this as well. And I
6:44
Speaker 3: think we'll probably see this throughout these hearings. But even
6:47
Speaker 3: having these police officers directly connect the mob, the riots
6:52
Speaker 3: to Trump himself, not just him inciting the mob, but
6:55
Speaker 3: him refusing to tell the mob to go home until
6:59
Speaker 3: well into the attack. To what extent do you think
7:02
Speaker 3: this testimony breaks through the noise of, you know, all
7:08
Speaker 3: the news that's out there right now and potentially changes
7:11
Speaker 3: any mind, shapes any opinions.
7:13
Speaker 2: And that's really hard to say. It definitely was a moment, right?
7:16
Speaker 2: Like if you spend any time online or you're watching TV,
7:19
Speaker 2: you saw this, you saw clips of this. But this
7:22
Speaker 2: is ultimately the paradox of political communication, which is the
7:25
Speaker 2: people who we need to see this content or to
7:29
Speaker 2: see these hearings the most are the people least likely
7:31
Speaker 2: to see them, right? People who are not going to
7:32
Speaker 2: consume this. We're not watching live cable news in the
7:35
Speaker 2: middle of the day on a weekday, who are not
7:36
Speaker 2: watching the evening news, who are not following political pages
7:40
Speaker 2: on Facebook that will put this content in front of them.
7:43
Speaker 2: That is the huge problem is like, yes, I think
7:45
Speaker 2: if people saw this information, people who have legitimate, you know,
7:49
Speaker 2: they either sort of living in a fog of disinformation
7:52
Speaker 2: or are legitimately unsure of what happened or what or
7:55
Speaker 2: who was really responsible, if they saw this, I think
7:57
Speaker 2: they would be persuaded immediately by this. But the question is,
8:01
Speaker 2: will those people see it? And I don't I'm somewhat
8:04
Speaker 2: skeptical of that, given the way our completely fucked up
8:07
Speaker 2: media ecosystem works.
8:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the fucked up media ecosystem.
8:11
Speaker 3: And even as I was preparing for the episode today,
8:15
Speaker 3: like I read headlines about this on Tuesday, but it
8:18
Speaker 3: was hard to break through with all the COVID news
8:21
Speaker 3: that's out there, right? Like there's just only so much
8:23
Speaker 3: bandwidth in the media ecosystem to cover something. And this
8:27
Speaker 3: did make a lot of news, but it's not going
8:29
Speaker 3: to get the kind of coverage that impeachment hearings got.
8:31
Speaker 3: And we know that impeachment hearings didn't matter politically that
8:35
Speaker 3: much in the long run anyway that said it's incredibly
8:39
Speaker 3: important to do just as all the committee members have
8:41
Speaker 3: said to get to the truth and to present that
8:43
Speaker 3: truth to the american people we deserve that whether or
8:46
Speaker 3: not it breaks through whether or not it changes any
8:48
Speaker 3: minds it's still incredibly important to do this.
8:50
Speaker 2: And i think it's not just like it's easy for
8:52
Speaker 2: us to get wrapped up around is this going to
8:54
Speaker 2: affect the midterms this is going to affect how people
8:56
Speaker 2: think about trump is this going to affect trump standing
8:58
Speaker 2: in the republican party But you're right. There's a historical
9:00
Speaker 2: record here, much like the 9-11 Commission. This is a
9:04
Speaker 2: huge deal in American history that armed protesters took over
9:09
Speaker 2: one of our three branches of government and put people's
9:11
Speaker 2: lives at risk. That is a moment that needs to
9:13
Speaker 2: be understood and analyzed and put in the historical record.
9:16
Speaker 2: But there's also a forward-looking thing here.
9:17
Speaker 7: Yes.
9:18
Speaker 2: This could happen again. The same people... who pushed the
9:22
Speaker 2: big lie that put these people in the Capitol, are
9:25
Speaker 2: still pushing that same big lie. The same Republicans who
9:27
Speaker 2: did not push back against that big lie are still
9:29
Speaker 2: not pushing back. We are on a freight train to
9:32
Speaker 2: a very similar thing happening in 2022, 2024, at any
9:36
Speaker 2: point in our near future. So we have to understand
9:38
Speaker 2: how it happened, what happened, and how we make sure
9:40
Speaker 2: it doesn't happen again. There is an immediate urgency here
9:43
Speaker 2: that you would think even if these shameless Republicans were
9:47
Speaker 2: dismissing this had Nothing other than self-interest. They would be
9:50
Speaker 2: focused on trying to ensure that their lives are not
9:53
Speaker 2: at risk again in the near future. But alas, that
9:56
Speaker 2: is less important than somehow angering. Trump or getting a
10:01
Speaker 2: poorly written worded statement sent out about them at some point.
10:04
Speaker 3: Well, speaking of that, we heard the reaction from the
10:05
Speaker 3: two very conservative but pro-democracy Republicans on the committee. Now
10:10
Speaker 3: let's hear from some of the lunatics who actually run
10:12
Speaker 3: the party.
10:13
Speaker 8: The American people deserve to know the truth that Nancy
10:16
Speaker 8: Pelosi is bears responsibility as Speaker of the House for
10:19
Speaker 8: the tragedy that occurred.
10:21
Speaker 7: On January 6th.
10:22
Speaker 8: And it was only after Republicans started asking these important
10:27
Speaker 8: questions that she refused to seat them. The people of
10:31
Speaker 8: this country, the answers to the questions.
10:34
Speaker 1: We need a break.
10:36
Speaker 2: The left is interrupting the press conference. We need to
10:39
Speaker 2: end it.
10:40
Speaker 9: And if you tuned in, we did, hoping for an
10:42
Speaker 9: answer to some of the many outstanding mysteries that remain
10:45
Speaker 9: from that day, you probably came away disappointed because there
10:48
Speaker 9: weren't any answers provided. For example, we still don't know
10:51
Speaker 9: who shot an unarmed Air Force veteran called Ashley Babbitt
10:54
Speaker 9: or why she was killed.
10:55
Speaker 2: But it's not about politics at all.
10:58
Speaker 9: And for best performance in an action role, the winner
11:00
Speaker 9: is Michael Fanone.
11:04
Speaker 1: Did you watch any of the hearings today? No, I didn't.
11:06
Speaker 2: Why not?
11:08
Speaker 1: I was busy doing work.
11:10
Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy also said that he didn't watch the hearings
11:12
Speaker 3: because he was stuck in, quote, back-to-back meetings, which is
11:16
Speaker 3: weird because Politico Playbook told us that Pelosi kicking the
11:20
Speaker 3: pro-insurrectionist Republicans off the committee would be a gift to
11:24
Speaker 3: McCarthy and other Republicans. Do those reactions from Republicans seem
11:28
Speaker 3: like they consider this panel a gift, Tuesday?
11:35
Speaker 2: It's hard even to respond to that.
11:38
Speaker 1: Real gift.
11:39
Speaker 3: Real fucking gift to Republicans, this committee. Yeah, no, it
11:42
Speaker 3: seemed like from all those reactions, they were pretty excited
11:44
Speaker 3: politically about the committee.
11:46
Speaker 2: Well, it's important to recognize that the primary tenet of
11:50
Speaker 2: American political journalism is it is Democrats' job to fix
11:52
Speaker 2: Republicans' problems for them. So Kevin McCarthy is free to
11:56
Speaker 2: be a disinformation-wielding insurrectionist, but it is Nancy Pelosi's job
12:00
Speaker 2: to ensure that Republican voters believe these results, right? It's
12:04
Speaker 2: the whole thing associated with it. They're obviously, like, we
12:06
Speaker 2: know that this is a tactic. Reporters haven't super figured
12:09
Speaker 2: out how to deal with this yet, where they just
12:10
Speaker 2: pretend that something that everyone knows is happening isn't happening.
12:13
Speaker 2: But the fact that they're doing that is a sign
12:15
Speaker 2: that they are not particularly comfortable politically, at least with
12:18
Speaker 2: the position they're currently in, because there are no good
12:20
Speaker 2: answers to why you don't want to participate in a
12:22
Speaker 2: bipartisan investigation into your own attempted murder.
12:24
Speaker 3: I will say that having watched the testimony, I think
12:28
Speaker 3: it only proved the wisdom of Pelosi making the move
12:32
Speaker 3: that she did. Because- What we actually saw was a
12:36
Speaker 3: committee that was doing its job, that didn't devolve into
12:40
Speaker 3: a fucking partisan circus because Jim Jordan was on it
12:43
Speaker 3: and Jim Banks was on it. And they telegraphed ahead
12:46
Speaker 3: of time that they were going to turn it into
12:47
Speaker 3: a partisan circus. And this happened during both impeachments, right?
12:51
Speaker 3: There would be incredibly moving and compelling testimony from the
12:54
Speaker 3: Democratic witnesses. And then the Republicans would get up and
12:57
Speaker 3: they would fire off some dumb fucking conspiracy theory. And
13:00
Speaker 3: the whole thing would turn into a circus and everyone
13:02
Speaker 3: would yell at each other. And we didn't have that.
13:04
Speaker 3: We actually had a normal, serious, substantive, bipartisan hearing, bipartisan
13:09
Speaker 3: investigation for the first time in years. Didn't have it
13:13
Speaker 3: with Benghazi. Didn't have it with the first couple impeachment hearings.
13:16
Speaker 3: Had it here because there weren't a bunch of Trumpy
13:19
Speaker 3: conspiracy theorists on the panel. So, like, good for Pelosi.
13:23
Speaker 3: I think it's a lesson in using the power you
13:25
Speaker 3: have and not worrying about what the fucking politico playbooks
13:29
Speaker 3: of the world are. tell you is going to somehow
13:31
Speaker 3: be a gift to Republicans.
13:32
Speaker 2: Like, not to pick on Political Playbook, but this was the.
13:35
Speaker 3: And others said it, too. I mean, it's... Yeah, yeah,
13:37
Speaker 3: I was going to say, it's that take. There's a
13:39
Speaker 3: whole bunch of people in Washington.
13:40
Speaker 2: That was the conventional wisdom, was this was an error
13:43
Speaker 2: on Pelosi's part. All of those people are wrong. I
13:47
Speaker 2: don't know if any of them admitted they were wrong.
13:48
Speaker 2: I haven't seen that.
13:49
Speaker 1: Of course not.
13:50
Speaker 2: If you said it, and you now think you were wrong,
13:52
Speaker 2: and you admitted it, please let us know.
13:53
Speaker 1: Let us know. Yeah, write us. Please send us a tweet.
13:56
Speaker 7: Yes.
13:57
Speaker 2: DMs are open for your apologies.
14:00
Speaker 3: I do think it's worth, like, breaking out the different
14:03
Speaker 3: Republican reactions to this. You have the, oh, just like
14:07
Speaker 3: the Trump, oh, I didn't read his tweets reaction.
14:09
Speaker 1: You know, I was in meetings.
14:10
Speaker 3: I was busy from more of the Republican leaders, except
14:13
Speaker 3: for John Thune, who was like, you should listen to
14:15
Speaker 3: those police officers. They have something to say. He was, like,
14:17
Speaker 3: one of the only ones that broke from the party.
14:19
Speaker 3: But the rest of them did. You know, McCarthy and
14:21
Speaker 3: McConnell did the cowardly, oh, I didn't see it. Then
14:23
Speaker 3: you've got the fucking pathetic, pathetic people like Elise Stefanik.
14:28
Speaker 3: who was out there saying that it's Nancy Pelosi's fault,
14:31
Speaker 3: even though she doesn't control Capitol security. And even if
14:34
Speaker 3: she did control Capitol security, that's like fucking investigating the
14:37
Speaker 3: engineer who built the twin towers, you know, like, are
14:41
Speaker 3: you kidding?
14:42
Speaker 1: Oh, sorry.
14:43
Speaker 3: You know, you should have had the Capitol fortified for
14:46
Speaker 3: an attack from the president's supporters. Everyone knows that, that
14:49
Speaker 3: when you're trying to certify the results of the presidential election,
14:52
Speaker 3: you should be prepared for a violent assault on the Capitol.
14:56
Speaker 1: Shame on you.
14:58
Speaker 3: Capitol Police. And of course, they're asking questions about security anyway.
15:02
Speaker 3: That's part of what the panel's job is. And then,
15:05
Speaker 3: of course, there's like the really scary people like Matt Gaetz,
15:08
Speaker 3: Marjorie Taylor Greene, Louie Gohmert, Paul Gosar, who did that
15:11
Speaker 3: press conference outside. And we're referring to the people who
15:15
Speaker 3: were arrested for assaulting the Capitol as political prisoners, political prisoners,
15:20
Speaker 3: which is like deeply scary stuff.
15:21
Speaker 2: I mean, we're so far past the Rubicon here.
15:25
Speaker 1: I know, I know.
15:26
Speaker 2: It is a party that is so broken and dangerous
15:31
Speaker 2: and on the cusp of regaining power.
15:34
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, that's what looms in the background of all
15:36
Speaker 3: of this, is that, you know, in 2022 at this time,
15:41
Speaker 3: or 2023, this kind of panel could cease to exist
15:43
Speaker 3: and we'd have House Republicans conducting all kinds of crazy
15:46
Speaker 3: investigations into fake controversies in the Biden administration.
15:50
Speaker 1: That's the preview.
15:51
Speaker 3: What do you think the committee should be focused on
15:53
Speaker 3: in terms of questions and witnesses in future hearings. Now
15:57
Speaker 3: we've had the police officers. There's obviously going to be
15:59
Speaker 3: a whole bunch of other people called. What are you
16:01
Speaker 3: looking for at this point?
16:02
Speaker 2: I think Liz Cheney might have said this in her
16:03
Speaker 2: discussion of what she was looking for is we need
16:05
Speaker 2: to know what happened every minute of the day in
16:08
Speaker 2: the White House. Who was talking to the Pentagon? Who
16:11
Speaker 2: was Trump talking to? What was Trump saying? Who was
16:14
Speaker 2: in communication either before, during, or after from the White
16:17
Speaker 2: House with the Oath Keepers or any other organizers of
16:21
Speaker 2: this event? We know nothing about that, right? Like we
16:24
Speaker 2: have this, there've been a gazillion Trump books written. There've
16:26
Speaker 2: been some very credulous reporting about Ivanka's very brave statements
16:31
Speaker 2: about what she didn't like, but we don't really know
16:33
Speaker 2: what happened and they need to use the subpoena power
16:35
Speaker 2: they have to ensure that we hear that. We should
16:38
Speaker 2: hear from Trump. Bush and Cheney testified at the 9-11
16:41
Speaker 2: commission hearings. They were deposed by the 9-11 commission. Trump
16:44
Speaker 2: should do the same. Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump, the acting
16:49
Speaker 2: defense secretary, everyone involved, we need to know what happened,
16:52
Speaker 2: what they were doing, and how we got here.
16:54
Speaker 1: Because it's two things.
16:55
Speaker 2: It's like, how did they get organized? What intent did
16:57
Speaker 2: those people have? What contact did they have with people?
16:59
Speaker 2: And then, what delayed the response? Which is a really
17:03
Speaker 2: very serious question about the National Guard, and we have
17:05
Speaker 2: to know that.
17:06
Speaker 3: I thought that Officer Dunn put it best when he said,
17:09
Speaker 3: if a hitman is hired and he kills somebody, the
17:11
Speaker 3: hitman goes to jail. There was an attack on January 6th,
17:13
Speaker 3: and someone sent them. I want you to get to
17:15
Speaker 3: the bottom of that. I do think the connections between
17:19
Speaker 3: the rioters domestic terrorists, and Trump or whoever else funded
17:25
Speaker 3: the Stop the Steal rally, coordinated, all of that kind
17:28
Speaker 3: of stuff needs to come out. And I think in
17:30
Speaker 3: terms of what we were talking about earlier, these committee
17:33
Speaker 3: hearings breaking through, at this point it's all about do
17:37
Speaker 3: these witnesses make news, right? Do they tell us something
17:40
Speaker 3: that we didn't know before? Because we know how the
17:42
Speaker 3: media is, and the media is only going to cover
17:44
Speaker 3: so much incredibly gripping and moving and compelling testimony.
17:48
Speaker 1: They're now going to look for news in the hearings
17:50
Speaker 1: to cover.
17:51
Speaker 3: And so I do think that I'm sure as Democrats
17:52
Speaker 3: and Republicans on the committee are figuring out future witnesses,
17:55
Speaker 3: they're trying to figure out, okay, who's going to make news?
17:57
Speaker 3: Who's going to tell us something that we didn't know before?
17:59
Speaker 2: And that's sort of an interesting communication strategy piece of
18:02
Speaker 2: it too, because one of the things that happened in
18:03
Speaker 2: impeachment was we often knew everything that was going to
18:06
Speaker 2: be said beforehand, which diminished some of the coverage over it.
18:08
Speaker 2: I mean, certainly like full-on political junkies will watch it
18:12
Speaker 2: live and the networks will cover it, but you're reaching,
18:15
Speaker 2: if you're talking midday CNN, MSNBC, You're talking a very
18:18
Speaker 2: small number of people, relatively. So holding something for drama,
18:23
Speaker 2: I think, is pretty important.
18:25
Speaker 3: So before we leave what's going on on Capitol Hill,
18:28
Speaker 3: there's an alternate universe on Capitol Hill where, late on
18:32
Speaker 3: Wednesday night, the Senate voted 67-32 to advance the bipartisan
18:39
Speaker 3: infrastructure framework, which is, to paraphrase Joe Biden, Dan, a
18:45
Speaker 3: biffucking deal.
18:46
Speaker 2: Are you paraphrasing Joe Biden or are you paraphrasing Politico playbook?
18:51
Speaker 3: I tweeted this yesterday, which was a bad thing to do.
18:54
Speaker 3: I'm not proud of it. I hate myself for it.
18:57
Speaker 3: And then Blake Hounshell from Politico responded to it and
19:00
Speaker 3: he said, congrats on your new job at Politico. And
19:02
Speaker 3: sure enough, it was a Politico headline. And that made
19:05
Speaker 3: me feel even worse about myself. So what did I do?
19:08
Speaker 3: I decided I'm going to say it on the podcast.
19:10
Speaker 3: And here it is. I will note that Brian Boitler
19:15
Speaker 3: pointed out that now that it's passed, it's going to
19:18
Speaker 3: go from being a framework to a bill, which means
19:22
Speaker 3: it's going from being the biff to the bib. So
19:25
Speaker 3: this is it for the biff. This is the last
19:27
Speaker 3: time we'll ever say that word, which is, I think,
19:29
Speaker 3: a small victory.
19:30
Speaker 2: I actually think the actual term now is the bid.
19:33
Speaker 1: The bid?
19:33
Speaker 10: Yeah.
19:34
Speaker 1: Oh, because it's a deal?
19:35
Speaker 2: It's a deal, yeah. We don't have bill text yet,
19:37
Speaker 2: so I don't know if it ever becomes a bib.
19:39
Speaker 2: But the White House very specifically, as I understand it,
19:42
Speaker 2: changed their language yesterday from biff to bid.
19:45
Speaker 1: If you all want to unsubscribe from the podcast at
19:47
Speaker 1: this point, we'll understand. Are you kidding?
19:51
Speaker 2: We haven't even gotten to the I-J-I-A, right?
19:54
Speaker 3: Real quickly, it's $ 550 billion. The big debate was over
20:00
Speaker 3: the pay-fors, how are we going to pay for this?
20:02
Speaker 3: Of course, the Republicans didn't want tax increases. Well, congratulations,
20:05
Speaker 3: you're going to get them in the reconciliation package, so fine.
20:08
Speaker 3: They're going to use the funding's going to be unused
20:11
Speaker 3: COVID funds, unused unemployment benefits, $ 56 billion in expected economic growth,
20:16
Speaker 3: which is the kind of bullshit math that Republicans hate,
20:19
Speaker 3: but I don't fucking care.
20:20
Speaker 2: No, we hate that math. It's dynamic scoring.
20:23
Speaker 1: Oh, that's dynamic scoring.
20:25
Speaker 3: That's the kind of bullshit math that Republicans always try
20:27
Speaker 3: to shove down our throats, and now that they've embraced
20:29
Speaker 3: it is what I was trying to say. Yes, yes.
20:33
Speaker 3: And they're delaying some Medicare rebate drug rolls. So it
20:36
Speaker 3: seems like whatever they found to pay for is, again,
20:39
Speaker 3: if there was no reconciliation bill coming up, I think
20:42
Speaker 3: there would be a lot of huge problems because there is.
20:45
Speaker 3: I think that's one reason why Schumer got all 50
20:47
Speaker 3: Democrats on board to vote for passage, including Bernie Sanders,
20:51
Speaker 3: Elizabeth Warren, the progressives in the caucus. So, you know,
20:54
Speaker 3: there's things people didn't like about the deal, but I
20:56
Speaker 3: think everyone knows because this other, the big economic plan,
20:59
Speaker 3: the reconciliation bill is waiting in the wings, then great,
21:02
Speaker 3: you get your bipartisan victory, good times for everyone. What
21:05
Speaker 3: do you think about the fact that this actually this
21:07
Speaker 3: actually might pass.
21:08
Speaker 2: It's interesting. I mean, it's really interesting. And I do
21:10
Speaker 2: think it upends some conventional wisdom or some of my
21:13
Speaker 2: own priors about how the Republicans, at least in the Senate,
21:17
Speaker 2: think about their politics.
21:19
Speaker 3: And it's not just sort of, you know, the Mitt
21:21
Speaker 3: Romneys and Lisa Murkowskis of the world, like Mitch McConnell
21:24
Speaker 3: blessed this deal and voted for it himself, even though
21:26
Speaker 3: none of his immediate deputies like John Cornyn or Thune
21:29
Speaker 3: or anyone else did, but McConnell did.
21:31
Speaker 2: Some of the original reporting and thinking on this when
21:34
Speaker 2: Schumer and Biden were undertaking the two-track strategy was that
21:37
Speaker 2: the reason McConnell was okay with this was he thought
21:40
Speaker 2: that passing the bipartisan deal would mean there would not
21:45
Speaker 2: be an appetite for a large reconciliation deal. And that
21:48
Speaker 2: he was given, something was going to pass, and he
21:51
Speaker 2: could either pass a bipartisan, smaller deal that was less
21:53
Speaker 2: exciting to the Democratic base, or this bigger thing that
21:57
Speaker 2: would excite the base. And given those two realities, politically,
21:59
Speaker 2: he liked the former. But it seems like, I mean,
22:02
Speaker 2: we've got a lot of miles to travel here. A
22:04
Speaker 2: lot of Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema interviews to try to interpret,
22:09
Speaker 2: but it seems like at least Biden and Schumer are
22:11
Speaker 2: on track to getting both. I can't fully understand why
22:15
Speaker 2: the Republicans are doing this, but I think it's notable.
22:18
Speaker 3: Here's my guess, and it's not giving Republicans credit for anything,
22:21
Speaker 3: but if you're just doing a pure political calculus, there
22:24
Speaker 3: are some of them who are up in districts and
22:26
Speaker 3: states where they might think to themselves they want a
22:30
Speaker 3: message that where they can say, yeah, I'm not a
22:34
Speaker 3: complete obstructionist. I worked with the Democrats on this bipartisan
22:38
Speaker 3: infrastructure bill, but then when they tried to pass their $ 3. 5
22:40
Speaker 3: trillion boondoggle, I said no. So I, you know, I
22:45
Speaker 3: joined them when it made sense, and I fought them
22:48
Speaker 3: the other times when it didn't. Like, that's just a...
22:50
Speaker 3: In some states and districts, that's probably a message that
22:53
Speaker 3: is more compelling.
22:54
Speaker 2: Did Rubio vote yes?
22:55
Speaker 1: Rubio did vote against the deal. Flavia just texted me,
22:59
Speaker 1: so we... There you go. Rubio's not a bib fan.
23:03
Speaker 2: What's interesting about that is there are only two Republican
23:06
Speaker 2: incumbents up in swing-ish states, right? Ron Johnson in Wisconsin
23:12
Speaker 2: and Marco Rubio in Florida. Ron Johnson certainly didn't vote
23:15
Speaker 2: for it. People who still have to navigate a Republican
23:17
Speaker 2: primary or just straight-up lunatics like Ron Johnson voted the
23:22
Speaker 2: other way. I do think there is an element of
23:24
Speaker 2: your message that does work is they are making a
23:27
Speaker 2: case for that they should be in charge of government, right?
23:30
Speaker 2: Or at least a portion of government. And therefore you
23:33
Speaker 2: have to look, the Senate wants to look different than
23:35
Speaker 2: Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Kevin McCarthy, and a bunch
23:38
Speaker 2: of these other people who are just like shaming themselves
23:41
Speaker 2: on a daily basis, slobbering over Trump. And so that
23:43
Speaker 2: it like, yes, we can give us part of government
23:45
Speaker 2: because we can't, we are serious enough to actually do
23:48
Speaker 2: a deal with Joe Biden. We're not insurrectionist Trumpists is,
23:51
Speaker 2: you know, maybe to the extent that there's any calculus there,
23:55
Speaker 2: that could be it.
23:56
Speaker 3: I also think they might want to take economic issues
23:58
Speaker 3: where they're not as popular off the table so they
24:00
Speaker 3: can go back to fighting their culture wars. That's another possibility.
24:04
Speaker 3: You mentioned Sinema and Manchin in decoding interviews. We should
24:06
Speaker 3: just talk about this really quickly before we move on.
24:09
Speaker 3: Kirsten Sinema told the Arizona Republic on Tuesday that she
24:14
Speaker 3: supports beginning the process of reconciliation. So she will vote
24:18
Speaker 3: to move forward on the big reconciliation bill. but she
24:21
Speaker 3: does not support the $ 3. 5 trillion top line number. She
24:25
Speaker 3: thinks that's too expensive. House progressives like AOC hit back,
24:30
Speaker 3: even threatening to tank the bipartisan deal over it. What
24:33
Speaker 3: happens here? Is this just normal negotiating that we're going
24:35
Speaker 3: to have to deal with? I mean, like personally, I
24:37
Speaker 3: never thought that Manchin or Sinema would be all in
24:41
Speaker 3: for everything that Democrats and progressives want in the $ 3. 5
24:45
Speaker 3: trillion reconciliation bill because they're Manchin and Sinema. And we
24:48
Speaker 3: have known from the beginning that The only reconciliation bill
24:51
Speaker 3: that's going to pass is one that is supported by
24:53
Speaker 3: AOC and Joe Manchin. And that's still the case to me.
24:57
Speaker 3: So at some point, they're all going to have to
24:59
Speaker 3: get together and decide we either have a reconciliation bill
25:02
Speaker 3: that we all agree on, progressives and moderates, or we
25:05
Speaker 3: have nothing.
25:05
Speaker 2: A similar dynamic happened in the American Rescue Plan, where
25:10
Speaker 2: Manchin insisted on some changes in the emergency UI and
25:15
Speaker 2: some other things that were mostly just, I think, cruel
25:18
Speaker 2: for the purposes of centrist symbolism, but that is definitely
25:22
Speaker 2: going to happen here. Like, it's just not... They are
25:24
Speaker 2: going to negotiate, and they're going to have to have
25:26
Speaker 2: both of them. Manchin actually has a political imperative to
25:29
Speaker 2: do this. I can't really understand what Sinema's doing, but
25:32
Speaker 2: her record in recent history suggests that she will want
25:35
Speaker 2: to find some places to stick her finger in the
25:38
Speaker 2: eye of the party so she can say she did that.
25:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a purely political play. She wants to just
25:42
Speaker 3: be able... Just like I said, Republicans wanted to take
25:45
Speaker 3: that message to voters.
25:46
Speaker 1: She wants to say.
25:47
Speaker 3: I worked on the bipartisan infrastructure deal. I was the
25:49
Speaker 3: lead negotiator. And then when Senate Democrats tried to pass
25:53
Speaker 3: a reconciliation bill that was too much spending, I cut
25:56
Speaker 3: back on some of that spending to focus on the
25:57
Speaker 3: priorities that Arizona voters want.
25:59
Speaker 1: That's what she wants to say. Yeah.
26:01
Speaker 2: I mean, I would say that Joe Manchin is going to,
26:03
Speaker 2: if he runs for re-election in 2024, is going to
26:04
Speaker 2: need three in 10 Trump voters to support him, if
26:07
Speaker 2: not more. And Kyrsten Sinema just needs all the Biden
26:11
Speaker 2: voters to support her. But I'm not here to tell
26:13
Speaker 2: her politics, or maybe I am, I guess, but she's
26:15
Speaker 2: not going to listen.
26:16
Speaker 3: And look, and I think that, you know, she's causing
26:18
Speaker 3: all these problems. I do think that it's good that
26:20
Speaker 3: the House progressives are speaking up as well because they
26:24
Speaker 3: have leverage here too, right? Like Nancy Pelosi does not
26:26
Speaker 3: have a huge vote margin in the House. She needs
26:28
Speaker 3: all the Democrats in the House, or at least just
26:30
Speaker 3: about all the Democrats in the House. Schumer needs all
26:32
Speaker 3: the Democrats in the Senate. So again, progressives have some
26:35
Speaker 3: leverage here just as much as Manchin and Sinema does
26:38
Speaker 3: if everyone is agreed on the fact that they want
26:41
Speaker 3: to get something done. because anyone can blow up the
26:44
Speaker 3: deal at this point and then nothing gets done. Okay,
26:46
Speaker 3: when we come back, Dan's interview with White House COVID
26:50
Speaker 3: Equity Task Force Chair, Marcella Nunez-Smith.
27:03
Speaker 2: Here to talk about the Delta variant and all the
27:05
Speaker 2: latest on COVID is Marcella Nunez-Smith, White House COVID-19 Equity
27:08
Speaker 2: Task Force Chair and Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology at Yale. Dr. Nunez-Smith,
27:13
Speaker 2: great to have you here today.
27:14
Speaker 7: Thank you, it's good to be with you.
27:16
Speaker 2: Well, let's start with President Biden's speech today on vaccines.
27:19
Speaker 2: What is he announcing and what is he trying to accomplish?
27:21
Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, we're at a really important moment right now.
27:23
Speaker 10: I think it's so important and key that the president
27:26
Speaker 10: is talking directly to the American people, saying, this is
27:30
Speaker 10: where we are, let's talk straight about this pandemic. We
27:33
Speaker 10: have Delta here now, and that makes things more urgent
27:36
Speaker 10: than ever before, right? If you're unvaccinated, your risk is
27:39
Speaker 10: so tremendously high. And so the key still is vaccination.
27:44
Speaker 10: That is the path out of the pandemic. And so
27:46
Speaker 10: the president is making sure people understand those basic tenets
27:50
Speaker 10: of the science, but also pushing on the important.
27:53
Speaker 7: Policies to help get us there.
27:56
Speaker 10: Talking about the key need for incentives, making sure barriers
28:01
Speaker 10: are addressed for people, like access to paid time off
28:04
Speaker 10: to get vaccinated, get their families vaccinated. And of course,
28:07
Speaker 10: really importantly, seeing the federal government is a large employer,
28:11
Speaker 10: and we're going to kind of model that safe workplace behavior.
28:15
Speaker 2: And so can you just shed a little light on
28:17
Speaker 2: what the new federal government policy is?
28:19
Speaker 10: Now, earlier in the week, the Department of Veteran Affairs
28:22
Speaker 10: came out and said, look, in VA hospitals for those
28:25
Speaker 10: patient-facing employees and workers, vaccination is going to be a must.
28:31
Speaker 10: And that is something that's happening in health care systems
28:35
Speaker 10: across the country, certainly something happening where I work. And today,
28:39
Speaker 10: you know, really very strong, clear statement from the federal
28:43
Speaker 10: administration that if you can't attest to being vaccinated as
28:49
Speaker 10: a federal employee, as a contractor, then it's going to
28:52
Speaker 10: be just important, mandatory for you to be part of
28:56
Speaker 10: a rigorous testing protocol. We have to make sure that
28:58
Speaker 10: our workplaces are safe.
29:00
Speaker 2: Why not go a step further, right? A lot of
29:03
Speaker 2: companies now are insisting on proof of vaccination to return
29:06
Speaker 2: to employment or as part of employment. Because under the policy,
29:10
Speaker 2: as I understand it, if you are not vaccinated, you
29:12
Speaker 2: will have to go through testing and mitigation. But that
29:14
Speaker 2: still puts the vaccinated employees at some measure of risk.
29:18
Speaker 2: Why not go one step further and have an actual
29:20
Speaker 2: mandate on federal employees?
29:22
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, let me be real clear.
29:24
Speaker 10: It's not in anybody's advantage to try to game this system, right?
29:29
Speaker 10: I mean, if you're unvaccinated and you're around others, you
29:33
Speaker 10: are at extremely, extremely high risk. So everything we're talking
29:37
Speaker 10: about is really a bridge to vaccination. There are going
29:41
Speaker 10: to be a few people, of course, there are medical
29:43
Speaker 10: reasons why vaccines are not advised. That's a very, very
29:47
Speaker 10: small number of people. So I think what we're seeing
29:50
Speaker 10: is making sure people understand the urgency and have this
29:54
Speaker 10: window of time to be able to say, let me
29:56
Speaker 10: go get vaccinated. And everything we're talking about in terms
29:59
Speaker 10: of mitigation is that bridge. You know, testing strategies, masking strategies,
30:04
Speaker 10: those are not destinations in this public health crisis.
30:06
Speaker 7: The destination is vaccination.
30:08
Speaker 10: And so whether we see municipalities or employers, it's important
30:12
Speaker 10: to give people that window of time to get vaccinated.
30:16
Speaker 2: So is there a point at which, like understanding that
30:19
Speaker 2: as I see the numbers, the number of daily first
30:22
Speaker 2: doses is going up pretty quickly here, which is a
30:24
Speaker 2: very good sign. But is there a point at which
30:26
Speaker 2: you will you know, the federal government or others should
30:28
Speaker 2: say to unvaccinated people, like you have to do this,
30:31
Speaker 2: you know, as a part of your federal employment, you know,
30:34
Speaker 2: school students have to attest to vaccination for polio, measles,
30:38
Speaker 2: et cetera. Is there a need for more sticks in
30:41
Speaker 2: the process of getting people vaccinated?
30:42
Speaker 1: Yeah.
30:42
Speaker 7: You know, vaccination is obviously, this is a personal decision.
30:45
Speaker 7: It's a choice.
30:46
Speaker 10: I do think when you look across the country, what
30:49
Speaker 10: you see is a combination of different strategies and approaches,
30:52
Speaker 10: you know, directly to your question about the federal administration
30:55
Speaker 10: and these guidance and policies are going to continue to
30:57
Speaker 10: be revisited. I think this is the right policy, the
31:01
Speaker 10: right direction, the right conversation for where we are right now.
31:04
Speaker 10: You know, I certainly, and I've said this before, I'm
31:06
Speaker 10: a practicing internal medicine physician. I have needed to attend
31:11
Speaker 10: my entire career for my employment, for example, with flu, influenza.
31:17
Speaker 10: And that's key. That's about keeping me safe. It's about
31:20
Speaker 10: keeping my colleagues safe. It's about keeping my patients safe.
31:23
Speaker 10: So certainly, we talk a lot, but you bring up
31:26
Speaker 10: a really great point, which is, we have a history
31:29
Speaker 10: in the country about vaccination and a shared understanding about
31:33
Speaker 10: the critical importance of vaccination for our public health.
31:37
Speaker 2: The revised mask guidance from the CDC, I think, was
31:40
Speaker 2: a wake-up call to a lot of people, particularly a
31:42
Speaker 2: lot of vaccinated people, about the risk that still exists
31:46
Speaker 2: and that the pandemic is continuing to go. Can you
31:47
Speaker 2: help explain to our listeners the what the new guidance
31:51
Speaker 2: is and why the CDC took this step to revise guidance.
31:54
Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely. This is so important.
31:56
Speaker 10: So, you know, the CDC came out and updated their
31:59
Speaker 10: guidance and a very appropriately. So I think, you know,
32:04
Speaker 10: I am certainly reassured as someone living in our country
32:08
Speaker 10: that the science, the evidence, the data really leading the
32:11
Speaker 10: way that everybody's paying really close attention when the science changes,
32:14
Speaker 10: then the recommendations change.
32:16
Speaker 7: So this week.
32:16
Speaker 10: CDC came out and said, first point is we are now,
32:20
Speaker 10: living in the time of Delta. And so Delta is
32:23
Speaker 10: a variant, unlike the variants we've had previously, it is extremely,
32:28
Speaker 10: extremely contagious. And so with the new dynamics of this virus,
32:32
Speaker 10: the new dynamics of transmission, got to think again about
32:36
Speaker 10: what's necessary. I think of the guidance sort of in
32:39
Speaker 10: these two ways, right? CDC came out and made recommendations
32:42
Speaker 10: directed at communities and then recommendations directed at individuals.
32:46
Speaker 7: On the community level.
32:47
Speaker 10: CDC really recommended and of local leaders encourage vaccination, right?
32:53
Speaker 10: Number one, vaccination, particularly in areas where there is high
32:58
Speaker 10: degree of transmission. 99% of people hospitalized and dying in
33:02
Speaker 10: our country now from COVID-19 unvaccinated. This is a preventable,
33:06
Speaker 10: preventable tragedy. Every death we see virtually now is a
33:10
Speaker 10: preventable one. So CDC came out to communities and said,
33:13
Speaker 10: substantial high levels of transmission, please, please, please, everything we
33:18
Speaker 10: can do to get people connected with vaccination. Also, really
33:22
Speaker 10: think about the mitigation strategies. How can we best keep
33:26
Speaker 10: everyone safe and can consider indoor, this is public indoor
33:31
Speaker 10: masking for vaccinated and unvaccinated people all.
33:35
Speaker 7: And then importantly, talking to individuals.
33:37
Speaker 10: So individuals who are living in those communities where there
33:39
Speaker 10: are substantial and high transmission, if you're unvaccinated, you got
33:44
Speaker 10: to keep the mask on as you bridge over to
33:47
Speaker 10: getting vaccinated.
33:48
Speaker 7: This is the time to do that.
33:51
Speaker 10: And I think a lot of people who are fully
33:53
Speaker 10: vaccinated have been trying to think about what are these recommendations?
33:56
Speaker 10: How do they land with me specifically? I'm a fully
33:59
Speaker 10: vaccinated person. In my home though, I have young children
34:03
Speaker 10: who are not yet eligible. I have in my family
34:06
Speaker 10: people who are really high risk for severe disease if
34:09
Speaker 10: they contract COVID-19. So I think the CDC importantly was
34:12
Speaker 10: talking to fully vaccinated people everywhere and saying, this is
34:16
Speaker 10: something we need to better understand. As you move in
34:19
Speaker 10: the world, you are really protected as somebody fully vaccinated
34:23
Speaker 10: from severe illness and from hospitalization, which has always been
34:27
Speaker 10: the case.
34:28
Speaker 7: And that remains the case.
34:30
Speaker 10: But now with Delta, as a fully vaccinated person, very
34:33
Speaker 10: small risk, but people should be aware, right? That the
34:37
Speaker 10: risk is not zero, that you might be able to
34:40
Speaker 10: get infected with Delta and transmit it, right? And transmit
34:44
Speaker 10: it in your home, in your household, a close contact
34:47
Speaker 10: to somebody who might not yet be vaccinated, like a
34:49
Speaker 10: young child, to somebody who might be immunocompromised or otherwise
34:54
Speaker 10: at risk for severe illness.
34:55
Speaker 7: And so for.
34:56
Speaker 10: Those people, you know, we might want to think about
34:59
Speaker 10: wearing a mask when in public indoor settings. And so
35:02
Speaker 10: I think that's really what I've heard a lot of
35:05
Speaker 10: people ask more questions about is like, what does this
35:07
Speaker 10: mean for me as a fully vaccinated person?
35:09
Speaker 7: And that's what the CDC was underscoring this week.
35:12
Speaker 2: I think one of the things that's hard in the
35:15
Speaker 2: assessment of risk here, because everyone's making their own assessment,
35:17
Speaker 2: everyone's situation is different. I'm in the situation you are
35:19
Speaker 2: where all of the highly vulnerable older people in my life,
35:23
Speaker 2: my in-laws, my parents are vaccinated, but I have two
35:26
Speaker 2: children who are under the age of 12 and therefore
35:28
Speaker 2: not vaccinated. Obviously, I do not want to give them COVID.
35:33
Speaker 2: And one of the challenges with the way the CDC
35:36
Speaker 2: did this from the perspective, I think, of a lot
35:38
Speaker 2: of sort of analysts and experts is there's no data
35:40
Speaker 2: to explain how big the risk is, how likely is
35:44
Speaker 2: it that I could get it?
35:46
Speaker 1: You know, and.
35:46
Speaker 2: Obviously there's breakthrough infections in every vaccine, right? And a
35:50
Speaker 2: lot of people just don't, I think, myself included prior
35:52
Speaker 2: to this, paid a ton of attention to that. But
35:55
Speaker 2: I think what really scared a lot of people, or
35:57
Speaker 2: at least caused people to perk up, was the idea
36:00
Speaker 2: that vaccinated asymptomatic people could transmit the disease. And so
36:05
Speaker 2: that was sort of like half referenced in some of
36:07
Speaker 2: the coverage of this in some of the CDC world.
36:09
Speaker 2: What more can you tell me about how big that
36:11
Speaker 2: risk is? How seriously should people take that? Even those
36:14
Speaker 2: who live in communities with decent vaccination risks, but have
36:18
Speaker 2: young children at home. Are we back to a point
36:20
Speaker 2: where we should be incredibly cautious in indoor, even indoor
36:24
Speaker 2: private settings outside of our household? With other vaccinated people, right?
36:29
Speaker 7: With other vaccinated people.
36:30
Speaker 10: Yeah, no, I got you. And I don't think we're
36:32
Speaker 10: back to anything. I think it's so important to kind
36:35
Speaker 10: of first anchor in where we are right now. And
36:38
Speaker 10: so six months in looking at, you know, well over
36:42
Speaker 10: 160 million people in the country vaccinated. So we have
36:46
Speaker 10: a different set of realities. I think we are certainly pushing.
36:50
Speaker 10: There is more work to do. We want everybody who's
36:52
Speaker 10: eligible for a vaccine and vaccination to get vaccinated. But
36:56
Speaker 10: there has been substantial progress that President Biden has led
37:01
Speaker 10: since taking office so that really things are different. And
37:04
Speaker 10: so that's why I continue to be very hopeful, very optimistic.
37:07
Speaker 10: particularly as we think about hospitalization and death, we have
37:10
Speaker 10: over 80% of some of the most medically vulnerable. That is,
37:14
Speaker 10: you know, kind of our older neighbors who are vaccinated.
37:17
Speaker 10: So I always like, we want to first start and
37:19
Speaker 10: say things are really different than they were before. That's
37:23
Speaker 10: the reality. Now we know that there are still localized
37:26
Speaker 10: areas of particular concern. We've been talking about that areas
37:29
Speaker 10: where we need to see vaccination go higher. But for
37:33
Speaker 10: those parents and others who are sitting here and saying like,
37:37
Speaker 10: what exactly is the risk?
37:38
Speaker 7: Let's talk about a couple of things.
37:39
Speaker 10: So one, and it continues to be the case that
37:42
Speaker 10: thankfully for children, the risk of severe COVID remains still
37:49
Speaker 10: very small. The risk of hospitalization remains very minimal death,
37:53
Speaker 10: even for the complication people might know as MIS-C. But again,
37:57
Speaker 10: you're a parent and so am I. Every sort of
38:01
Speaker 10: case that can be prevented, we want to prevent, right? So,
38:04
Speaker 10: you know, I want to start by not scaring parents
38:07
Speaker 10: that something has changed so drastically in terms of risk
38:10
Speaker 10: of COVID infection to their children.
38:13
Speaker 7: There are always those caveats.
38:14
Speaker 10: I mean, there are children, of course, who are immunocompromised,
38:17
Speaker 10: who have underlying medical conditions, other things. People should be
38:20
Speaker 10: in conversation with their healthcare providers on that front. You know,
38:23
Speaker 10: but really the CDC guidance spoke to public indoor settings.
38:28
Speaker 10: And so, you know, when we think about going out
38:31
Speaker 10: into the world where we really are quite unsure about
38:34
Speaker 10: the vaccination status of those people we might be around
38:37
Speaker 10: for any substantial length of time, it really is now
38:41
Speaker 10: up to the individual.
38:41
Speaker 7: To say, do I want to wear a mask?
38:43
Speaker 10: So that might be the grocery store, right, as one example,
38:46
Speaker 10: where people may have shed that mask before and now
38:49
Speaker 10: may think about that decision in light of who is
38:53
Speaker 10: in their home and.
38:54
Speaker 7: In their household context.
38:55
Speaker 10: So it really is about when you're in public indoor
38:58
Speaker 10: spaces and you just don't know the vaccination status of others.
39:02
Speaker 10: I know I, many other people too, we have our
39:04
Speaker 10: little pods, right? Where we do play dates with other families.
39:07
Speaker 10: We know their vaccination status and other things. And we're
39:10
Speaker 10: really not looking to a lot changing in that from
39:12
Speaker 10: the CDC updated guidance.
39:14
Speaker 2: That's very, very helpful for me personally, at least, if
39:18
Speaker 2: not our listeners. You know, there was sort of a
39:21
Speaker 2: collective groan earlier this week when it, there was an
39:25
Speaker 2: announcement that the study on pediatric vaccines was expanded and
39:28
Speaker 2: that was interpreted as delaying when we would actually be
39:32
Speaker 2: able to get vaccines to kids under the age of 12.
39:34
Speaker 2: You know, I think parents, a lot of parents had
39:36
Speaker 2: some real high hopes that that would happen around the
39:38
Speaker 2: start of school or earlier this year. It seems like
39:39
Speaker 2: that's going to be later. Can you help level set
39:41
Speaker 2: expectations or explain that process a little bit so people
39:44
Speaker 2: can understand what's coming?
39:46
Speaker 7: Yeah, of course.
39:46
Speaker 10: So I mean, the people I think At this point,
39:48
Speaker 10: understand that this process really begins with the FDA in
39:52
Speaker 10: terms of reviewing data submitted by the vaccine manufacturers, independent
39:56
Speaker 10: scientists involved in that process, recommendations made to the FDA.
40:01
Speaker 7: Leadership in that space.
40:03
Speaker 10: Then of course, the partnership with CDC and independent advisors
40:06
Speaker 10: there as well, ACIP in terms of recommendations. So those
40:10
Speaker 10: processes remain the expectation when we're talking about the pediatric vaccines.
40:14
Speaker 10: I think everybody hopefully is aware that everyone 12 and
40:18
Speaker 10: older is already eligible, has gone through that process. The
40:22
Speaker 10: vaccine supply is there. So really are encouraging people, particularly
40:26
Speaker 10: ahead of back to school, to go out and get
40:29
Speaker 10: your children vaccinated. So the question becomes that next age
40:33
Speaker 10: group and the clinical trials.
40:34
Speaker 7: Are very much well underway and expect that process to
40:38
Speaker 7: go through. I'm sure people have heard Dr.
40:40
Speaker 10: Fauci and others say, look towards the middle of fall
40:44
Speaker 10: to perhaps have that. You know, it's not inevitable that
40:47
Speaker 10: expanding the number of participants is going to substantially lengthen
40:51
Speaker 10: that process.
40:52
Speaker 7: So I want to reassure people on that front as well.
40:56
Speaker 10: And I think as we have really seen, I think
40:59
Speaker 10: at every step in these past six months, the signs,
41:02
Speaker 10: the evidence, the data, but also really making sure that
41:05
Speaker 10: we are efficient and timely. But these processes do involve, again,
41:09
Speaker 10: independent bodies as well. And so the administration, certainly the
41:13
Speaker 10: White House, isn't setting the timeline on that.
41:16
Speaker 2: A large part of your work in your task force
41:18
Speaker 2: is convincing vaccine-hesitant people to get the vaccine. Would your
41:23
Speaker 2: job be easier if the FDA moved forward with permanent
41:27
Speaker 2: approval of the vaccine? Anecdotally, you hear a lot of
41:29
Speaker 2: people use that as the reason why they are not
41:33
Speaker 2: yet willing to do it because it's experimental, it's a test.
41:37
Speaker 2: That's sort of been a real opportunity for some of
41:40
Speaker 2: the misinformation peddlers is the fact that it's still under
41:42
Speaker 2: emergency authorization. should the FDA move forward with permanent approval
41:47
Speaker 2: as soon as possible?
41:48
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I think you're so right.
41:49
Speaker 10: This sort of the question of people who are still
41:51
Speaker 10: vaccine deliberating and what might help them and give them
41:56
Speaker 10: that degree of confidence. And we've heard, as you said, anecdotally,
41:59
Speaker 10: but also now we have many, many polls that have
42:00
Speaker 10: shown there are people who are waiting for that full approval,
42:03
Speaker 10: that full licensure to have a higher degree of confidence.
42:07
Speaker 7: You know, the reality is we have so much more
42:09
Speaker 7: data at this point.
42:11
Speaker 10: Than we typically do, even when other vaccines.
42:16
Speaker 7: Or therapeutics come through the approval process.
42:18
Speaker 10: But yet, you know, you can understand how some folks
42:21
Speaker 10: have really said that they're waiting for the full approval
42:24
Speaker 10: to help make up their mind. And, you know, we've
42:26
Speaker 10: heard some employers say that as well. So we know
42:28
Speaker 10: a lot of people are paying attention to that approval process.
42:32
Speaker 10: I think we want to be sure, you know, a
42:33
Speaker 10: lot of folks have questions about the vaccine, also have
42:36
Speaker 10: questions about political interference and processes. And so I think
42:40
Speaker 10: we have to be really, really clear that there isn't
42:42
Speaker 10: political interference. There really hasn't been to this point. Nobody's
42:46
Speaker 10: trying to introduce that now. I would say that folks
42:50
Speaker 10: at the FDA, career political, I think everybody understands the
42:52
Speaker 10: importance of the work and the importance of getting it right.
42:55
Speaker 10: So I think the job of those of us who
42:58
Speaker 10: are out there talking one-on-one to people and in communities
43:02
Speaker 10: is to continue to share the data that we do
43:04
Speaker 10: have and we do know around just how effective the
43:07
Speaker 10: vaccines are. and how many millions of doses have been
43:11
Speaker 10: given safely. You know, I say to people all the time,
43:14
Speaker 10: where we are in this country right now, the choice
43:16
Speaker 10: is between the virus or the vaccine. My recommendation is
43:21
Speaker 10: to go with the vaccine. The virus is terribly unpredictable
43:24
Speaker 10: and has stolen already too much from us in terms
43:27
Speaker 10: of lives and livelihood.
43:29
Speaker 1: Dr.
43:29
Speaker 2: Nunez-Smith, thank you so much for joining us and we
43:32
Speaker 2: hope to talk to you again soon.
43:33
Speaker 7: My pleasure.
43:33
Speaker 1: Thank you.
43:43
Speaker 3: Okay, we got three special elections to talk about. Texas, Ohio,
43:47
Speaker 3: and California. Let's start in the Texas 6th, where Donald
43:50
Speaker 3: Trump's candidate Susan Wright lost a race on Tuesday night
43:53
Speaker 3: to fill the seat of her late husband, Ron Wright,
43:55
Speaker 3: who died of COVID earlier this year. Trump didn't just
43:58
Speaker 3: endorse Wright. His PAC spent $ 100, 000 on a last-minute ad campaign,
44:05
Speaker 3: he starred in a robocall, and he headlined an election
44:08
Speaker 3: week telephone rally. But it wasn't enough. The winner was
44:12
Speaker 3: state representative and former Navy fighter pilot Jake Elsey, who
44:15
Speaker 3: raised more money, had endorsements from Dan Crenshaw and Rick Perry,
44:19
Speaker 3: and said that his victory shows that Texas Republicans want
44:21
Speaker 3: more traditional conservatives with a, quote, Reagan Republican outlook for
44:25
Speaker 3: the future of the country. For his part, Trump told
44:28
Speaker 3: Axios' Jonathan Swan, quote, He's such a glass-half-full guy, you know?
44:39
Speaker 1: It's good that he had that optimistic outlook.
44:40
Speaker 2: It's that sunny Reagan optimism that Jake Elsey likes.
44:44
Speaker 3: It was, you know, very good candidates on both sides
44:46
Speaker 3: was Trump's response. So only 8% of registered voters turned
44:51
Speaker 3: out here. Can this race tell us anything about anything?
44:55
Speaker 2: I mean, it's obviously very easy and very typical to
44:57
Speaker 2: overread the political significance of low turnout special elections. You know,
45:01
Speaker 2: we use them, you know, I mean, we spent a
45:03
Speaker 2: lot of time talking about the one in New Mexico,
45:05
Speaker 2: the Democrats won. But, I think they tell us something, right?
45:09
Speaker 2: Like in a world in which we believe no polls anymore,
45:12
Speaker 2: special elections remain one of the real pieces of data
45:15
Speaker 2: you can actually look at.
45:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, actual votes being counted, right.
45:17
Speaker 7: Yes.
45:18
Speaker 2: The only poll that counts is the one on election
45:21
Speaker 2: day or something, is that if there was going to
45:25
Speaker 2: be a place where Donald Trump's endorsement mattered the most,
45:29
Speaker 2: it would be in a low turnout special election between
45:32
Speaker 2: two Republicans.
45:33
Speaker 1: Yeah.
45:33
Speaker 2: And so it is notable. And it wasn't like he picked...
45:36
Speaker 2: In some cases... uh, he picks the wrong person. Like
45:40
Speaker 2: it's the long shot Trump is person. Like I think
45:43
Speaker 2: in the Madison Cawthorn race, he picked, uh, the person that, uh,
45:46
Speaker 2: Mark Meadows told him to pick who lost. Uh, but
45:49
Speaker 2: in this case, this is the widow of the member
45:52
Speaker 2: of Congress who passed away. Like that is normally a
45:54
Speaker 2: recipe for success. And so he had everything going in
45:57
Speaker 2: his direction and still lost. I think that's just something
45:59
Speaker 2: that is worth noting because it does fit within a
46:03
Speaker 2: pattern of a couple of other things we're seeing that
46:05
Speaker 2: I think, uh, are worth noting. Like, uh, Ben Jacobs
46:08
Speaker 2: pointed out on Twitter that there was a special election
46:10
Speaker 2: in Staten Island recently where Trump's candidate won, but barely.
46:14
Speaker 2: And that is the capital of MAGA nation right there
46:17
Speaker 2: in Staten Island. And so I think there is this
46:21
Speaker 2: presumption that Trump rules the Republican Party, and certainly most
46:24
Speaker 2: of the Republicans act like he does, but there are
46:26
Speaker 2: some maybe cracks in the firmament here.
46:29
Speaker 3: I think you can hold two different ideas in your
46:32
Speaker 3: head at the same time, which is, one, does Trump's
46:35
Speaker 3: endorsement have as much power– as conventional wisdom suggests, this
46:40
Speaker 3: election and perhaps others says maybe not. On the other,
46:44
Speaker 3: is the Republican Party still controlled by Donald Trump? And
46:48
Speaker 3: the answer to that can be yes, because, you know,
46:51
Speaker 3: at one point in this race, Wright attacked Elsey for
46:54
Speaker 3: not being sufficiently supportive of Donald Trump, actually called him
46:57
Speaker 3: a never-Trump candidate. Dan Crenshaw, who endorsed Elsey, went out
47:03
Speaker 3: there and said, He has always supported President Trump. He
47:06
Speaker 3: voted for him twice. He long supported him. So the
47:08
Speaker 3: guy that won that wasn't the Trump-endorsed candidate is still
47:11
Speaker 3: a big Trump fan. And it would have been very
47:13
Speaker 3: hard for him to win this race, I think, if
47:16
Speaker 3: he said he was a never-Trumper, if he didn't like
47:18
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. So I still think if you want to
47:21
Speaker 3: succeed in the Republican Party, you must bend the knee
47:23
Speaker 3: to Donald Trump. That doesn't necessarily mean that if Donald
47:26
Speaker 3: Trump endorses you, you're going to win your primaries.
47:29
Speaker 2: That's exactly right. Jake Elsie did not run as Liz
47:32
Speaker 2: Cheney or Mitt Romney redux. We've never seen a primary
47:37
Speaker 2: where a Republican ran against Trump and succeeded. And I
47:41
Speaker 2: don't think we're going to.
47:42
Speaker 3: And we've already been fooled on this once. Remember when
47:45
Speaker 3: Madison Cawthorn first run and Morning Joe had Madison Cawthorn
47:49
Speaker 3: on and they're like, you beat the Trump endorsed candidate.
47:51
Speaker 3: Maybe you're going to be a new kind of Republican.
47:53
Speaker 3: And now Madison Cawthorn is like, the fucking Trumpiest Republican
47:56
Speaker 3: of all, even though he didn't get his endorsement.
47:58
Speaker 2: I'm thinking Nancy Mason, South Carolina, very similar situation, right?
48:01
Speaker 2: Who started out was going to be a never Trumper
48:04
Speaker 2: and is now fully on board with all sorts of
48:07
Speaker 2: Trumpism and big lying, et cetera. It's where the power
48:10
Speaker 2: still is. And there was a great story in the
48:12
Speaker 2: New York Times by Shane Goldmacher about how the Republicans,
48:14
Speaker 2: how they raise money is just using Trump over and
48:17
Speaker 2: over again. Like Mitch McConnell, who is convinced every credulous
48:20
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill scribe that he is anti-Trump. I believe he
48:24
Speaker 2: legitimately does not like Trump in the sense that he
48:26
Speaker 2: likes nothing. He has no human emotion. But the NRSC,
48:31
Speaker 2: which he controls, sells a bunch of tchotchkes with Donald
48:35
Speaker 2: Trump's face on it wearing that Uncle Sam garb, right?
48:38
Speaker 2: So it's like... Trump's as powerful as Republicans let him be,
48:43
Speaker 2: and they are certainly letting him be it.
48:45
Speaker 4: Yes.
48:45
Speaker 3: Let's turn to Ohio, where another special election in Ohio's
48:48
Speaker 3: 11th congressional district to fill the House seat held by
48:51
Speaker 3: Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marsha Fudge has become a
48:54
Speaker 3: proxy fight between two wings of the Democratic Party. Progressive
48:57
Speaker 3: candidate Nina Turner was Bernie Sanders' national co-chair and has
49:00
Speaker 3: been endorsed by Sanders, AOC, and the rest of the squad,
49:03
Speaker 3: also the Congressional Progressive Caucus, while her opponent, local Democratic
49:07
Speaker 3: Party chairwoman Chantel Browne, has been endorsed by the Congressional
49:10
Speaker 3: Black Caucus, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn.
49:12
Speaker 1: And Hillary Clinton.
49:14
Speaker 3: Turner's lead in the polls has narrowed following a series
49:17
Speaker 3: of negative ads like this one.
49:19
Speaker 10: Country is more polarized than ever, and Nina Turner is
49:22
Speaker 10: no help.
49:23
Speaker 2: Unified Democrats?
49:25
Speaker 1: Turner said no.
49:26
Speaker 7: Support Clinton over Trump?
49:27
Speaker 1: Not Nina Turner.
49:29
Speaker 7: Help Biden defeat Trump?
49:30
Speaker 1: Turner refused.
49:32
Speaker 7: Instead, Turner said voting for Biden was like eating.
49:36
Speaker 1: Shit.
49:36
Speaker 3: The word was shit, Dan. That's what was bleeped out there.
49:40
Speaker 1: I couldn't figure it out. What do you make of
49:44
Speaker 1: this race?
49:45
Speaker 3: Are you feeling 2016 primary vibes, or is this a
49:48
Speaker 3: sign of things to come in the Democratic primaries?
49:51
Speaker 2: A little bit of both. I mean, it definitely is
49:53
Speaker 2: a 2016 proxy war, much less so than a 2020
49:54
Speaker 2: proxy war, since Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are working
50:01
Speaker 2: hand-in-hand to pass a hugely progressive economic populist agenda.
50:04
Speaker 1: BFFs on the Biff, yeah.
50:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, they are Biff. They're Biff.
50:08
Speaker 1: Biff, Biff.
50:10
Speaker 4: Fuck.
50:10
Speaker 2: Oh, my God. This is going to be the worst
50:14
Speaker 2: performing Pots of America in American history. Come swim in
50:18
Speaker 2: alphabet soup with us. I don't know that it tells
50:22
Speaker 2: us a ton about the future of the party. This
50:24
Speaker 2: is an incredibly Democratic district. Nina Turner is incredibly well-known.
50:28
Speaker 2: Chantel Brown is well-known, although not as well-known. Who wins
50:32
Speaker 2: matters somewhat just because of the narrow margins in the House, right?
50:35
Speaker 3: Who wins the primary doesn't matter in terms of who
50:37
Speaker 3: wins the general. A Democrat's going to win the general.
50:39
Speaker 3: We should just put that out there. It's either going
50:42
Speaker 3: to be Nina Turner or Chantel Brown. Republicans are not
50:44
Speaker 3: going to win this district. So that part's good. But
50:46
Speaker 3: you're right.
50:46
Speaker 1: It matters in Congress a lot.
50:48
Speaker 3: Whether you have another member of the squad who could
50:50
Speaker 3: make life difficult for Nancy Pelosi, or whether you have
50:52
Speaker 3: someone who would presumably be a little more favorable to
50:55
Speaker 3: what leadership does.
50:56
Speaker 2: I mean, to date, and it's obviously only been six
50:59
Speaker 2: months or whatever it is, AOC, Ayanna Pressley, the squad,
51:02
Speaker 2: Jamal Bowman, Mondaire Jones, sort of this new ascendant wing
51:05
Speaker 2: of young progressives, you know, have used leverage they have,
51:08
Speaker 2: you know, both publicly and privately, but have worked constructively.
51:11
Speaker 2: They are not the Freedom Caucus, right? They are not
51:13
Speaker 2: sinking bills to make a point. I mean, that can
51:15
Speaker 2: obviously change. And I think one of the reasons why
51:17
Speaker 2: that hasn't happened is part of it is what's the
51:19
Speaker 2: stuff that's coming from the Senate with Bernie Sanders and
51:21
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Warren working with the Biden administration. They're not being
51:23
Speaker 2: forced to swallow these incredibly centrist bills. They're not being
51:27
Speaker 2: put in a position of no deal, no climate yet, right?
51:29
Speaker 2: But when you– every person– given Chantel Brown's record and
51:33
Speaker 2: Congressman Clyburn's support of her, the assumption would be that
51:36
Speaker 2: if she were to come to Congress, she would be
51:38
Speaker 2: someone who would be more part of the leadership establishment
51:42
Speaker 2: than– you know, Turner would be. And so that's where
51:44
Speaker 2: I think it matters. Some is this ultimate consequences to
51:46
Speaker 2: tell us anything about the direction of the democratic party
51:50
Speaker 2: that I'm not so sure about, but it could matter
51:51
Speaker 2: in a closely divided Congress, which is why I think
51:54
Speaker 2: Congressman Clyburn has, you know, he has no reason to
51:56
Speaker 2: get involved here or for the CBC to endorse in
52:00
Speaker 2: a race between two black candidates in a democratic primary. It's,
52:03
Speaker 2: you know, that is, that's what speaks to the consequence
52:05
Speaker 2: of the significance of this.
52:07
Speaker 3: I do find it interesting that both candidates seem to
52:08
Speaker 3: be downplaying their ideology and Um, and talking more about
52:13
Speaker 3: their stance on issues, which of course is, uh, you know,
52:16
Speaker 3: it says something about your ideology, but they're not necessarily
52:18
Speaker 3: talking about, I'm a progressive, I'm a moderate. It's more,
52:21
Speaker 3: you know, Nina Turner saying I'm from outside the establishment.
52:24
Speaker 3: She's not Chantal Brown is saying, I'm not a bomb thrower.
52:29
Speaker 1: I don't care about headlines as much. I care about
52:30
Speaker 1: getting stuff done.
52:31
Speaker 3: So there you are trying to, and they're, and they're
52:33
Speaker 3: also leaning on their relationships in the district and, and
52:36
Speaker 3: who they know and how they've been there for voters.
52:39
Speaker 3: even more so than making it, they're trying not to
52:41
Speaker 3: make it as much of a proxy battle over ideology,
52:44
Speaker 3: the two candidates, which I think does say something about
52:46
Speaker 3: what it's like to actually run a race as opposed
52:48
Speaker 3: to analyze a race, you know, sitting in the cheap seats.
52:51
Speaker 2: I mean, we've seen this throughout the Democratic primaries in
52:53
Speaker 2: the Trump era. Outside of the presidential primaries, a lot
52:56
Speaker 2: of sort of the questions around moderation or progressivism is
52:59
Speaker 2: not necessarily ideological, it's attitudinal.
53:01
Speaker 9: Yes.
53:02
Speaker 2: Right, where you are, you know, like take Governor Northam
53:04
Speaker 2: in his 2017 race. He's very moderate attitudinally. He talks
53:09
Speaker 2: about bipartisan. I mean, Joe Biden is the perfect example
53:11
Speaker 2: of that, right? Certainly, from a policy perspective, more moderate
53:15
Speaker 2: than a lot of the other people running, but quite progressive.
53:18
Speaker 2: But his moderation is as much in his language and
53:21
Speaker 2: sort of his structural reform stuff than it is in
53:23
Speaker 2: particular in policies.
53:25
Speaker 1: Yeah.
53:25
Speaker 3: And it's interesting with Nina Turner, too, because I've seen
53:27
Speaker 3: her at a Bernie Sanders rally in the primary, and
53:29
Speaker 3: she is an electrifying speaker.
53:30
Speaker 1: Yeah.
53:32
Speaker 3: Attitudinally, and the way that she's talking in this race
53:34
Speaker 3: is a little different than when she was at a
53:35
Speaker 3: Bernie Sanders rally, right? Because she knows she wants to,
53:37
Speaker 3: you know, win the race. Finally, and perhaps most importantly,
53:41
Speaker 3: voters here in California will soon decide whether or not
53:43
Speaker 3: to recall Gavin Newsom as governor and replace him with
53:46
Speaker 3: one of the many extremely Trumpy Republicans who've made it
53:49
Speaker 3: on the ballot, like right-wing radio host and current GOP
53:52
Speaker 3: frontrunner Larry Elder or reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner.
53:56
Speaker 1: But that's impossible, you say. How can a Democrat lose California? Well,
54:00
Speaker 1: here's how.
54:01
Speaker 3: The recall ballot will have only two questions on it. One,
54:06
Speaker 3: should Gavin Newsom be recalled? And two, which candidate should
54:09
Speaker 3: replace him? If a simple majority says yes to the
54:13
Speaker 3: first question, the Republican with the most votes becomes governor.
54:18
Speaker 3: That's how a recall works. It is incredibly fucked up.
54:21
Speaker 3: And here is Wednesday's poll from UC Berkeley in the
54:24
Speaker 3: LA Times. Support for recalling Newsom stands at 47%. with
54:31
Speaker 3: 50% opposed, just shy of the margin of error. Even
54:35
Speaker 3: though Democratic voters have a 22-point registration advantage over Republicans
54:40
Speaker 3: in California, in this poll, 90% of Republicans expressed a
54:45
Speaker 3: high level of interest in the recall, while just 58%
54:49
Speaker 3: of Democrats and 53% of independents were interested in the race. Dan,
54:54
Speaker 3: how real is the threat that California may soon be
54:56
Speaker 3: governed by a Trump-Republican?
54:59
Speaker 1: Are you ready to move? Are we getting ready to
55:00
Speaker 1: move back east? What's going on?
55:02
Speaker 2: I've been doing some Zillow searches of Minneapolis. That's probably
55:07
Speaker 2: a mistake. I don't even know where we should move to.
55:09
Speaker 2: We're kind of scurred. Maybe Georgia. I don't know. I
55:11
Speaker 2: don't know. Hawaii. We're going west. Definitely you want to
55:18
Speaker 2: move to an island during a period of rapidly accelerating
55:21
Speaker 2: climate change.
55:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's smart.
55:22
Speaker 2: There are reasons to be skeptical of this poll, and
55:25
Speaker 2: I say that because it's a poll. Right, of course.
55:29
Speaker 3: As we just said, polls, we don't believe polls anymore,
55:31
Speaker 3: so that's fine.
55:32
Speaker 1: But it's, you know, it's something.
55:33
Speaker 3: There's been a couple now, you look at averages, there's
55:35
Speaker 3: been a couple now that have been, showed it a
55:37
Speaker 3: little closer than you would think with a 22 point
55:39
Speaker 3: voter registration. I think that's what we can say confidently.
55:42
Speaker 2: What is notable about this poll is the gap between
55:46
Speaker 2: likely voters and registered voters. Likely voters, it's very close.
55:49
Speaker 2: Registered voters, less so. And usually when you see a
55:51
Speaker 2: gap that large with a likely voter screen, it usually
55:53
Speaker 2: means that something is not right. But it doesn't matter.
55:56
Speaker 2: Like if I was working on the Newsom recall, I
55:59
Speaker 2: would think this is the greatest news ever. I would
56:01
Speaker 2: not unskew this poll. I would not try to tell
56:04
Speaker 2: everyone it's fine to worry about. I would fucking run
56:06
Speaker 2: ads with it. I would call everyone about it. Like
56:08
Speaker 2: what he needs is urgency, right? Obviously the people who
56:10
Speaker 2: want to get rid of Gavin Newsom are much more
56:13
Speaker 2: fired up than the people who want to keep them, right?
56:15
Speaker 2: It's changed our status quo. And so what is going
56:18
Speaker 2: to keep people from participating? A sense that it's totally fine. So,
56:21
Speaker 2: and it's not totally fine. Like, yes, he's favored. Yes,
56:24
Speaker 2: it's California. Yes, a lot is very different from when
56:27
Speaker 2: Gray Davis lost in the earlier part of the century.
56:30
Speaker 2: But this is really hard. He could lose. And if
56:33
Speaker 2: there's low turnout, we could end up with Larry Elder
56:35
Speaker 2: as governor. And that is bad. And so, yeah, like
56:39
Speaker 2: that is not a good thing to happen. And so,
56:40
Speaker 2: you know, I hope that everyone in Democratic politics and
56:44
Speaker 2: every Democratic voter who's going to have a ballot mailed
56:46
Speaker 2: to your house. we're going to make it so easy
56:49
Speaker 2: for you to do this, becomes concerned enough to actually
56:52
Speaker 2: get involved. Because if not, it is well within the
56:56
Speaker 2: realm of possibility that a Democratic governor could lose a
56:59
Speaker 2: low turnout recall in the state.
57:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
57:02
Speaker 3: And look, I was talking to some Newsom advisors, and internally,
57:08
Speaker 3: their thought process is in all of their internal polls,
57:11
Speaker 3: like it's showing that almost no one is movable. There
57:13
Speaker 3: are no persuadable voters here. Like everyone is locked in.
57:16
Speaker 3: And this is literally all about turnout, right? Because as
57:20
Speaker 3: this poll showed something like, you know, 70 to 80
57:23
Speaker 3: to 90% of Republicans in this state, even though they
57:26
Speaker 3: don't make up a large portion of voters are going
57:29
Speaker 3: to turn out. And the question is it, look, if
57:31
Speaker 3: Democrats turn out and by turnout, like you just said,
57:34
Speaker 3: it just means mail your fucking ballot that comes to
57:37
Speaker 3: your house.
57:38
Speaker 1: Then Newsom wins easily.
57:40
Speaker 3: But if Democrats don't turn out, if you get like,
57:42
Speaker 3: you know, what, 58 percent interested, 57, then or, you know,
57:47
Speaker 3: non-party affiliated voters, which make up a big margin as
57:49
Speaker 3: well in the state or big population as well.
57:52
Speaker 9: Yeah.
57:53
Speaker 3: Newsom could be in real trouble. And what does that mean? Like,
57:55
Speaker 3: you don't have to like Gavin Newsom or not. Like,
57:57
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter what you think about Gavin Newsom.
58:00
Speaker 1: If Larry Elder, any one of these Republicans becomes governor
58:03
Speaker 1: of California, that is.
58:05
Speaker 3: Repealing the minimum wage. That is, some of them want
58:08
Speaker 3: to microchip undocumented immigrants.
58:11
Speaker 1: Okay?
58:12
Speaker 2: With a vaccine?
58:13
Speaker 1: No, not even with a vaccine.
58:15
Speaker 2: Different microchip.
58:17
Speaker 1: Restrict access to abortion in California.
58:20
Speaker 6: All right?
58:20
Speaker 1: This is what happens with the Republican governor.
58:23
Speaker 3: One of the reasons they started the recall petition in
58:24
Speaker 3: the first place was over gun rights. They want to
58:26
Speaker 3: put more guns in people's hands. An environmental group was
58:29
Speaker 3: doing an event about the recall the other day, and
58:31
Speaker 3: they said, vote no or there's going to be an
58:33
Speaker 3: oil derrick next to your house. Because they've been fucking
58:35
Speaker 3: drilling for oil on the coast of California. Like, this
58:37
Speaker 3: is a fucking nightmare. And so there's going to be
58:39
Speaker 3: a lot of focus, and I'm sure the media's going
58:41
Speaker 3: to focus on Gavin Newsom as governor and his record
58:44
Speaker 3: and what he's done and this scandal. It doesn't fucking
58:46
Speaker 3: matter what you care about, what you think about Gavin Newsom.
58:48
Speaker 3: You have to vote no on the recall if you
58:50
Speaker 3: don't want fucking California to slide into the ocean, you know,
58:54
Speaker 3: and to be run by a Trumpy Republican. That's the
58:57
Speaker 3: threat here. And I do think one of the groups
58:59
Speaker 3: of voters that I think they're concerned about are like
59:03
Speaker 3: 25 to 35 year old progressives that live in urban areas,
59:07
Speaker 3: suburban areas who may not pay as much attention to
59:10
Speaker 3: the news, who may not be as engaged. Like everyone
59:13
Speaker 3: who's listening to this podcast, especially I know we have
59:14
Speaker 3: a lot of listeners in California, like you're probably going
59:18
Speaker 3: to vote, right? Because you're listening to Pod Save America
59:20
Speaker 3: and you're very engaged, but like go out and you
59:21
Speaker 3: got to tell your friends, your family, you got to
59:23
Speaker 3: remind people to vote. Vote by mail starts on August 16th.
59:27
Speaker 3: So a ballot will be mailed to your fucking house.
59:30
Speaker 3: And you can start voting. You can start mailing them
59:32
Speaker 3: in on August 16th. And then for people who somehow
59:36
Speaker 3: don't do that for some reason, in-person voting is September
59:39
Speaker 3: 14th on Election Day. If you're not sure if you're
59:42
Speaker 3: registered to vote, if you're not sure you're going to
59:43
Speaker 3: get a ballot in the mail, you can go to votesaveamerica.com,
59:46
Speaker 3: find out if you're registered, request a ballot. But it's
59:50
Speaker 3: incredibly important here. Incredibly important.
59:53
Speaker 2: And the message from the Newsom campaign is this. vote
59:57
Speaker 2: no on the first question, and leave the second question blank.
1:00:00
Speaker 1: Yes.
1:00:00
Speaker 2: That is what they are saying.
1:00:01
Speaker 1: Yeah.
1:00:01
Speaker 2: And that is important. Because when Gray Davis was up
1:00:05
Speaker 2: in 2003, I guess that was, there was a slightly
1:00:09
Speaker 2: different strategy. The lieutenant governor at Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat,
1:00:13
Speaker 2: was on the ballot as a stalking horse. So if
1:00:16
Speaker 2: you voted yes, you could vote for Cruz Bustamante. The
1:00:18
Speaker 2: only Democrat on the ballot is a YouTube star. I mean,
1:00:22
Speaker 2: I'm probably too old to know who is, but Just
1:00:24
Speaker 2: vote no. And here's the thing. As you point out,
1:00:27
Speaker 2: I think Gavin Newsom has done a pretty darn good
1:00:29
Speaker 2: job as our governor on a lot of things and
1:00:30
Speaker 2: handled a very difficult situation. But if you are a Democrat,
1:00:33
Speaker 2: you're a progressive, or for some reason you're mad at
1:00:35
Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom, there is an election next year.
1:00:37
Speaker 1: Just one year away.
1:00:39
Speaker 2: He is up for re-election next year. We are just
1:00:41
Speaker 2: wasting a giant fucking ton of money when people could
1:00:45
Speaker 2: just have the opportunity to vote him out next year.
1:00:47
Speaker 2: And if there was a primary and you think there's
1:00:48
Speaker 2: a better Democrat, then find a candidate in the primary
1:00:51
Speaker 2: against him next year if that were to happen. But
1:00:54
Speaker 2: We cannot let this happen. Like, this is incredibly important.
1:00:57
Speaker 2: Get your ballot. Go to Vote Safe America. Vote no.
1:01:00
Speaker 2: We can move on and have another election next year.
1:01:02
Speaker 3: Also, this is, you know, this has implications for the
1:01:05
Speaker 3: 2022 midterms, right? Because we know that one of the
1:01:10
Speaker 3: threats in the midterms is voter apathy on our side,
1:01:13
Speaker 3: that Democrats aren't going to turn out. And I think
1:01:16
Speaker 3: that if we can prove here in California that, yeah,
1:01:19
Speaker 3: Democrats are going to turn out and we're still going
1:01:21
Speaker 3: to have high turnout rates, just like we did in
1:01:22
Speaker 3: the Trump era. to make sure that Gavin Newsom isn't recalled,
1:01:25
Speaker 3: then it's going to be a good sign for the midterms. If,
1:01:28
Speaker 3: on the other hand, we couldn't even turn out the
1:01:30
Speaker 3: Democratic base in California for this race, I think it's
1:01:33
Speaker 3: going to pretend some pretty bad prospects for the midterm races.
1:01:38
Speaker 3: One more important thing, too. Dianne Feinstein, Senator from California,
1:01:43
Speaker 3: pretty fucking old. Do you want a Republican Governor Larry
1:01:46
Speaker 3: Elder to potentially replace her in the Senate, and then
1:01:52
Speaker 3: we also lose the Senate majority as well as the
1:01:54
Speaker 3: governorship of California?
1:01:55
Speaker 1: Probably not, right?
1:01:56
Speaker 3: I mean, that is a... Didn't think of that nightmare scenario,
1:01:59
Speaker 3: did you? That was a very Dan Pfeiffer glass-half-empty thing
1:02:03
Speaker 3: to say.
1:02:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know what that is? It's a Dan Pfeiffer
1:02:06
Speaker 2: inside thought that I would not have shared outside, but
1:02:09
Speaker 2: kudos to you.
1:02:11
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. It's the elephant in the room. Let's just
1:02:13
Speaker 1: talk about it, you know?
1:02:14
Speaker 9: All right.
1:02:15
Speaker 2: Proceed ahead.
1:02:16
Speaker 1: It's something to think about. She's quite old. That's all
1:02:18
Speaker 1: I'm saying.
1:02:19
Speaker 3: We have seen this kind of stuff happen before. I
1:02:21
Speaker 3: wish her all the best. I hope she's there for just,
1:02:24
Speaker 3: you know, you got to be careful.
1:02:25
Speaker 1: You got to be careful. All right.
1:02:27
Speaker 3: On that note, again, it's votesaveamerica.com. Find out if you registered.
1:02:32
Speaker 3: Vote no on the recall.
1:02:33
Speaker 1: Tell your friends. Tell your family. Okay, Dan. I think
1:02:36
Speaker 1: that's all we've got for today.
1:02:38
Speaker 2: Let's end on a high note.
1:02:42
Speaker 3: Thanks to Marcel and Nuna Smith for joining us today.
1:02:46
Speaker 3: Everyone have a great weekend. VoteSaveAmerica.com. Vote no on the recall.
1:02:49
Speaker 3: And we'll talk to you next week.
1:02:50
Speaker 1: Bye, everyone.
1:02:56
Speaker 3: Hot Save America is a Crooked Media production. The executive
1:02:59
Speaker 3: producer is Michael Martinez. Our senior producer is Flavia Casas.
1:03:04
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1:03:11
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