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The Favorites - NFL Futures + Super Bowl Recap · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time,
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  Speaker 1: seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one eight hundred
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  Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Guy. I'm Chad Mellman,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Welcome to all
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the ampers. We are live reminder you want to get
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: the show earlier than ever. Like the Favorites pod in
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  Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, subscribe in Apple Podcasts you will get the
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  Speaker 1: Favorites earlier than anybody else who's listening to it in
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: podcast form. It is the Tuesday after the Super Bowl.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Amazing game, Uh, really fascinating. Me and my bff, my companion,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter, Eagles fan. We're gonna
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: break it down. We're gonna give him like three minutes
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: just event make it a safe space. We're also going
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: to get into futures. That's going to be the majority
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: of what we're talking about today. Turning the page, it's
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: already Simon and I have already made one futures. Bet
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I know that I know of that he made I
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: made it as well, Simon. Hello, So I'm in Hello Chad,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: my brother. I feel for you, man, I do. Also
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: with the NFL season, over all eyes on the sporting
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: world turned to everything from the NBA to n C
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Double A basketball to the NHL. Plenty of games to watch,
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  Speaker 1: Also lit me recap. You love the Eiggles. You love
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: the Eiggles so much that you said on Sunday when
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: we did convince me that you were not even going
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: to be able to watch the game, you were gonna
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: have to listen to it on the radio, and then maybe,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: depending on what happened, you'd watched the game after. Tell
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: us how you experienced this game. Well, I'll start off
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: by saying, I've become comfortably numb. Chat you sound terrible.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: You sound so sad you don't have your PEP. I'm hurt. Yeah,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to put on a brave face. I think
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: I'll be better as we get going here. Yeah it hurts.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I would say I wouldn't have watched the game, but
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: I manned up smacked myself around yesterday when I woke up,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: and because I try to be a glass half fool guy,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: and I was like you gotta watch the games. I can't.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I can't come on here give out opinions on a
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: game I didn't watch because the radio is just different.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Like the radio, I listened to w i P, which
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: is a Phildelphia station, so everything skewed Philly. So I
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: had the most skewed experience a person could have of
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the experience, so I had to watch it. Did the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: All twenty two. It hurts where you're so close. I
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: think most fans get that, where if you get blown out,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: it's whatever, right, You're just like we were never in it.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: We were just happy to be there. I'm trying to
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: be happy to be there. Guy, like the same thing
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: as the Phillies, where like the Phillies coming to the
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: season whenever they were thirty five, or for you to
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: one to make a World Series, just happy to be there,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: not really expectations for the Phillies. Had the same mindset
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: with this Eagles team. But that changes when the Eagles
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: are the one seed all year and the team is
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: the best team in my model, and it's just a
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: really good feeling up ten at half. I think you
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: would attest to that if you're an Eagles back or
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: um but that's why I love football. It's it's the
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: ultimate chess match and different pieces of different little things.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: And we saw you know, the grand Master, and you
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: read he really stepped up in a second half where
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: he was staring at one in three in his career
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, dead in the face and he
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: bounced back. I mean, he's two and two now to
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Just a true had tipped Andy as much.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I want to credit my homes Homes was incredible after
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: rewatching the game, the All twenty two. It's the scheme, man,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: the scheme was incredible. And um, I don't know what
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: when you want to start the time or for me
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: bitching because I'm ready again into Philly mood, but I
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: just want to pay. We're gonna paying. Obviously a lot
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: of respects here to the Chiefs team, but as a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: fan of football and ask for a better game chat.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: We literally had a thirty five game in the fourth
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: quarter with two minutes to go. I as a football fan,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: a guy who wants to sport to grow. It's everything
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I dream of. I love. In the big game, the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: best of the best show up. And that's exactly I
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: think if all of his fans can say it. Hurts
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: was as best as he could be. Mahomes and that
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: offensive scheme was the best of good Bee. So yeah,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: honestly was one of the better Super Bowls I've ever watched.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I love that Hurts didn't lose it, that he was amazing.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Nobody on the Eagles lost it. Forget about the call
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: on brad Berry. I actually thought the Eagles as players
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: handled everything with such class after the game at a
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: the fact that he admitted he held him, which was
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: interesting and novel be none of the players were like, yeah,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: that was the play that ended it for us. It
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: is a sixty minute game. It was a brilliant game, um,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: and almost like exactly what we thought, what have to
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: happen for the Chiefs to win happened. We talked about
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: it for two weeks at nausea. Quarterback head coach versus
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: roster what are we talking about here? And in the
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: first half it was all roster, you know, and in
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: the second half it was all quarterback head coach. It was.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: It was astonishing, the adjustments, it was astonishing. And you know,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: in the first half, as Eagles backers, which we were, um,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: we were feeling really good because it was playing to script.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: They were running the ball with ease. Jalen Hurts on
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: r P O S was finding the holes. Kenneth Gainwell
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: was like the good compliment. I don't know what happened
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: with Miles Sanders if he got hurt early on, but
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: he was really a non factor. Um, the Chiefs defensively,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: we're having a really hard time against Hurts as a whole.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: And then in the second half everything changed. The Eagles
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: defense couldn't do anything. Um it really became my homes
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: and you read clinic just astonishing, great game game. I mean,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: the interesting thing is, like you just said, it's a
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: tale of two halves. Where as much as I love
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: to give to the Eagles defense, the first half was
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: so much about what the offense wanted the game to be,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: which was they would ball control and you're hoping for
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: a three and out from the Chiefs, And that's how
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: you kind of flipped the game. Where that what that
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: first half was. I mean, it was fourteen seven, it
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: was third on one, the Eagles had the ball at midfield,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: They're about to go into the Chiefs territory. That that
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: false start, Hurts had the fumble. You know, we could
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: say that changed the game. That really wasn't the game changer. Right,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: the Eagles are up twenty four, fourteen and a half.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: What the Chiefs have eight minutes or something crazy like
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: that of offensive time on the field. So they obviously
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: went into half and they just pretty much stild the
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: defense keep doing we're done, which was selling out to
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: stop the run and allowing one on one matchups to
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: say and let Hurts beat us. We're not gonna let
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: them run the ball. So to me, Miles, game, well,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: they couldn't really get much going because all those holes
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: were clogged. The teams really weren't. They really weren't respecting Hurts,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: and Hurts was kind of beating them, like I mean,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: he was going up and down the field. And my
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: biggest issue with the Eagles was seriality. Played that first
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: half like it was a Super Bowl, Like he was
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: very aggressive, where any Reid was a timid one. Right,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: he kicked that field goal on fourth down, which if
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: they would have lost, I'm gonna say almost everyone would
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: have gone through. That's kind of that easy, low hanging
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: fruit everyone would attack them for. It's I mean, it's
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: hard to really make a judgment call there, but of course,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: we all agree should have gone for it. Eagles on
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: fourth and two, to me was the game changing of
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: the game. They had a fourth and two. I swear
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: they're gonna fake it. I really did think they were
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: gonna fake it there and said they punted, and we
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: saw it happen. They took all that return all the
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: way down at the time the Eagles were up one,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: that flipped it. They got the touchdown there. Um to me,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: that was we Siriani lost that game. You're you're in
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: a game, you're playing crazy aggressive your defense again. I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: don't want to hate on them chat, but I said,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: of coming into it, they were going to struggle with
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: that zone, against this passing. That's why I just love
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the over. I thought to myself, I already know the
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Eagles are at the points. I just thought that the
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Chiefs will be able to score against the Seagal's defense. Now,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: did I see them putting up thirty eight? No, I
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: did not that. That whole scheme they did blocking scheme
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: against that Eagles front. They got pressures right, they got
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: they got their hands close to them. But it's my
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: homes It's what makes them so special. In that pocket.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: He's just he can weave in and out of it
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: and a counteract. Those guys are in upfield. They ran
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: the ball really well, So I think what my homes
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: through for one seventy if that it was just a
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: really well smoked, smart coach game. So as an Eagles fan, yes,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: I'm piste off about the call. I think any fan
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: base would be a mean. I don't know how many
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: people I had to mute that. We worked with Chad
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: that are Chiefs fans, but I couldn't stand them trying
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to defend the call. Um. Just to me, I agree
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: that was a that's a call you make there. If
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: you watch every single play that entire game, guys are grabbing.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: It's it's a high game. And I can read these
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: stats to you. Eagles defense had players slip on thirty
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: of my homes dropbacks five times. They had multiple slippage
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: on the play. The Chiefs only had fourteen percent of
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: times they dropped back on defensive they slipped. So the
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Eagles are obviously affected by the slipping. They're grabbing a
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: little bit. It's the end of the game of the
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: fourth order. I think every fan that's an Eagle fan
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: right now, I was pissed because we wanted Hurts to
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: have that chance. I don't get what the NFL didn't
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: want it either, Where you're gonna give Homes the three,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: al Right, he's gonna be up three and there's gonna
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: be two minutes left and the Eagles had no time outs.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: To me, that would just been a nice dream scenario
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: for Eagles fans and anyone that was watching that game
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: of let the kid get a chance, right, let let
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: her get a chance. He was what minus three fifty
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: minus m v P head into the fourth quarter, so
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: it was their for him, and I feel bad that
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: it was taken away from on a I mean just
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: a soft call, like yes, he grabbed him a little,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: that ball was not gonna be caught by him. Like
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: that was just a weird time to call that. So
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I think that's what sucks as Eagles fans are gonna
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: gravitate to that, but as a gambler, to me that
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: that's irrelevant, like that's gonna happen. I'm just upset as
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: an Eagles fan. I wanted to see Hurts get that touch.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: But we see it all the time, the refs they
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: factor in these games, so um, there are a bunch
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: of spots. The Eagles, you could say they lost it
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: to me that fourth and two, four and three, the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: punt by Sirianni. That was a coward move and they
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: deserve to have that ball returned on him because that
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: was you're playing to win, like in your mind you
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: should think every time my home gets the ball, he's
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: gonna get seven. The kid is a killer. So I
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: hated that they kind of went conservative in the second half.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: For first half they played like a team that was
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: trying to win a super Bowl. So, um, not going
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: to be better because I'm I'm very lucky where hurt
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: showed up in the biggest game. The kids like, what
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: am I about that bitch about having a young stud quarterback?
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know. So it's hurting, like I'm hurting. I
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: still haven't slept well. It's been two days. But I
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: think in a week or two I'll be all right.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I just it's still too much right now. Or I'm
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: just like, you're there, you should add a chance and
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: it's gone. Simon would turn in the page. Let's please,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: we're going out of the futures. Also, I gotta say
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: NFL season is over. But the podcasts and the betting continues.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Bett happens every day of the year because there are
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: sports every single day of the year. Listen to Big
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Bets on Campus with three Man We've and Stucky from
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. Listen to Links and Locks Are Golf
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: betting podcast. Listen to Buckets every freaking day with a
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: rotating cast of NBA handicapping geniuses. We got line Change,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: our hockey podcast, got a new podcast, NASCAR podcast Running Hot.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Check it out. The NASCAR team we have is ridiculous,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous. So listen to all those podcasts before we
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: move on, though, chat, I gotta know how how fund
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: did you feel for betting that under? Within five minutes
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: of that game starting sick to my stomach because I
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: was just saying that, I was like, thank God, at
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: least I don't have both um, because that would have
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: been a blood bath. But yeah, the Eagles first half
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: the over staid my ass a little bit. I mean
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: I took personally for the group, I did well, but personally, yeah,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: my own personal that's lost about seven figures on Eagles spread. UM.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: One of those were I think the I think the
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: live money line would have been UM plus three fifty
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: plus four hundred, and I tried to get some hedge
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: down because I just was feeling nervous, made a couple
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: of calls but got pennies down. It sucked. So I
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: was like, well, I'm all in. I think we're gonna win.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: And uh, that was that. Again, that's the toughest thing
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: as well of like gotta listen to your elders. I
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: had a lot of guys saying to me, like, I
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: love you with the over hate hate the Eagles side.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Just stay away from the side. Um. But yeah, that
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: thank god for Eagles first half. That was something that
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: you know what, they finished her fifteen and five against
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: the spread in the first half this year, so pretty
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: pretty special for betting bend them first half this year. Yeah,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: I had a terrible dance Super Bowl Day, got crushed
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: mainly because, uh, you would fucking Raybond had me convinced
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the Eagles with the right side when you came after
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: me all for liking the Chiefs, holding my position on
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: the and like I went in on the Eagles on
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning aggressively and that ended up being the difference
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: from me between I kept saying Eagles first half, Eagles
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: first half, Yeah, that's it. No, that was right. I
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: just missed it. I just missed these two words. Um,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Sunday night, here's where I was proud of you and
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: you put your big point pants on. We both did
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: the same thing, Um, get back in the water. We
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: both bet the Bears got him eighty to one to
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. I got him a hundred to
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: one to win the Super Bowl. Um, I'm not gonna
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: say anything. My bet was big enough. I needed approval.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: And UM, so it's futures time. Yeah, it's futures time. Yeah.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: With the with the Bears one, we already touched on it,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: what two three weeks ago, now, we were both I
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: just love him the spot of the Bears, of a
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: team that has the quarterback and there's a ton of
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: money and they kind of have a plan. Um. The
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: only thing I think I already talked about this one
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: move I think you guys screwed up one was ro
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Kwan to me as a corner stone piece. And the
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: fact you guys traded him to the Ravens and the
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Ravens gave him all the money, that to me is
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: just a bad look to the Bears because the Ravens
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: they're one of the best for an offensive of all football,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: so that might be the only mistake they really made
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: last year. You can see what you want about the
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Claypool move. I get what they were trying to do.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: They're just trying to surround fields with more more weapons,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: especially weapons and using the off season. But they messed
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: up where the Jaguars probably made the right move, like
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: getting Calvin Ridley at a discount and then letting them
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: just chill for the year and the coming back this
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: year with that wide receiving corps. So this year was tough, Chad.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: They they're not giving us the valley they were last year.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: I mean that Jaguars at this point last year, we
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: had them at a hundred fift a one. So you
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: can find the Bears still a hundred of one or
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: eighty two one. That's actually good value since we took
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: that number chats down now to sixty one. So it's
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: one of those where me, Chad, do we really think
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: that Bears are going to win the Super Bowl? No,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: of course we don't. It's all about taking positions and
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: if you listen to us, you know last year in
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: August you still could have got the Jackson one, but
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: we also gave out the Chiefs at eleven and one,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: and we gave out the Eagles, which which at that
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: point I think they dropped the way down to fifteen
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: or ten to one. So that's just one of those
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: where you know, last year was kind of a unicorn year,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: like a lot of the futures we gave out kind
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: of came through the positions we're open for the same
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: thing with this Bears team here chat, I don't know
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: what you're looking at, but for me, they were the
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: chatter of London, like when I was in England, a
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: lot of guys talking Bears, a lot of pros like Bearris.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: It like the value on the Bears wasn't shocking. We
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: saw a multiple thousand dollar bets come in as soon
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: as the super blended, and like I was a part
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: a few of them. You know, books aren't gonna take
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: one of the thousand bucks, especially on the launch shot
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: like that. They don't need that my positioned against them
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: in the middle of February. But to me with the Bears,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: I loved all the things that that's just in that division,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Like we got a guy right now on Aaron Rodgers
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: just in some dark hole right now, taking a bunch
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: of drugs, trying to figure out his next move for
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the next four days. Um, we have Kirk Cousins off
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: arguably one of the luckiest best years we've ever seen
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: of his career. I mean, in what world has in
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: with taking there over next year? Right? They had the
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: greatest run ever of a one score team. So we
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: saw a team with the Vikings had crazy high luck.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: We looked at our rankings, Bears were very unlucky last year,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: something I think is gonna flip in her favorite the
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: next year. And then we end up on Detroit, which
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: is arguably me and Chad's favorite team from last year.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: We loved Detroit, but are they overvalued at this point?
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Probably like they're at one right now for the Super
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Bowl Detroit team that didn't even make the playoffs. So, um,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: we're gonna we're gonna talk about a couple of teams
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: here where we like to value. I wanted to take Detroit,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: but one the same number as the Jaguars, which we
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: think is clearly the best team in their division. I
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: don't see that with Detroit. I don't think they're clearly
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the best team in this division. So we have a
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: little bit of a cluster up the top. We got
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the Detroit Vikings in Green Bay. I all agree they
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: shall be close. The Bears are right there. They make
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: a couple of the right moves this year. Field stays healthy.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: I love this team, especially everything they can put around him.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: So that says a non fan, just someone going off
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: of it. I can't hear out Chad's viewing his Bears
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: team right now head into the season. Well, a couple
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: of things. Number one, there's news breaking right now that
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals are hiring Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. Yesterday,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: the Colts officially hired the Eagles offensive coordinator. I don't
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: think these hires moved the needle for me at all.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: On the futures, I would also recommend everybody who's looking
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: for smart takes on futures. Brandon Anderson has a great story.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Brandon was on with us on the Best Bets pod
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: has right before the Super Bowl. Action Network analyst. He's
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: got a great story on Action Network right now, download
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: the app. You can read it there reader Action Network
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: dot com. I love the Bears. The midway point of
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• 23:15
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. You know it's funny. The Lions are interesting
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: as a camp right because we love the Lions last year,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: So why don't we like the Lions as much this year?
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Part of it is the number. I don't know that
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: they have the ability to improve their defense as much
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: as the Bears have. The ability to improve their defense
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: just by virtue of they have the most salary cap
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: room and they have the best draft excuse me, best
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: draft assets. So I think the Bears can get better
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: on defense faster than the Lions. And I think the
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Lions also it's a fade, not in a I don't
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: think the lines are gonna be good, but we were
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: on that bad wagon last year. It paid off for
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: us in terms of season win totals. I'm not going
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: back to that because there's gonna be no value in
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: any respect on anything for the Lions right now. Um. Like,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: the only reason I would say, sure, go ahead and
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: bet the lines to one if you want it, is
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: because they're in the NFC and we've seen it this year.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: The NFC is open. I mean, all the great quarterbacks
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: right now in the a f C. And that's why
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: people will keep going the lame excuse of well, hees
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: haven't played anyone. It's like the NFC is a bunch
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: of really good teams. I just don't have a bunch
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: of really good quarterbacks. So I get people's position of
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: that with them. But the fact that the one Fandel
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: and the Vikings, which is basically the same team is
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: at four year to one. It just shows you public perception,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: like the public want the lines to be much better,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: but there's really not that much difference. Like, yes, the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Vikings have a first place schedule, but it's we've seen
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: it time and time again year to year. It's not
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: that big of a difference. Like they're still in the
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: same division, They're still pretty much playing the same schedule. Um,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: just the public loves the Lions on them is pretty sure?
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: How much? Here here's a good point, how much does
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: the public love the Lions? The Lions have the tenth
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: shortest odds to win the Super Bowl on fandor right now,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: when is the last time the Detroit Lions had the
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: tenth shortest odds to win the Super Bowl? Like, I
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: can't even imagine. I wouldn't need Evan Abrahams to dig
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: deep into the research to tell me that. And by
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the way, to your point about quarterbacks and the better quarterbacks,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: six of the top ten teams are a f C teams.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: It's not evenly split obviously, Niners, Eagles are three and
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: four and shortest odds Cowboys are six, and then Lions
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: are ten. Um. I when people understand what you just
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: said that though, Like literally the betting public is all
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: over the a f C where we're gonna have crazy value,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: just like the Eagles were crazy value last year. The NFC,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: it's the like they just don't learn their lesson chat.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: That's just how it is. So once again, they're gonna
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: betting up all these numbers off just because QB's names
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna find some good value here head into
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the summer on these NFC teams. It's just the way
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: it is, Like you just said, that's crazy. Uh, the
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: fact that, well they moved since you, but at one
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: point it was Chiefs of Bills then since you were
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: the top three best odds for Super Bowl. Yep, that's
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: insane to me. Like usually it would be the Eagles
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: right there next to the Chiefs, but it's the public
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: love for these quarterbacks, so um, pretty pretty hilarious. If
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: you to me, the Cowboys are a waste, Like anything
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: more than one with them, I would never have been
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: on it for Super Bowl futures. So them at fifteen
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: to one, that's purely name and fandom like that, that's
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: a crazy number for a team that didn't even make
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: it to the conference Championship Game, and they're not gonna
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: be better next year, like, if anything, they're gonna lose
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: a couple of key players. Um, that's that's crazier at
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: that number. I don't know about you, but it's it's
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: rare for me to take a team that, you know,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: I don't like the coach in Stanley, but the Chargers
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: at one. If I'm gonna go with an a f
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: C team at a long odds, I guess I would
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: look at them. But they're just one of those. I'm
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: just not gonna do it yet. I'm just gonna hope
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: this number keeps coming down. But of all the teams
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: that they're their odds are too low. I could see
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: a Chargers just because the Chiefs won the Super Bowl,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be a public darling next year. We're last
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: year people kind of left the Chiefs left for dead. Um,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: this year it's an over reaction. The team just won
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Now. I think Matt Mitchell's one chiming
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: in before the Chiefs uh played. I think it was
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Jaguars Chargers. He said the Chargers, we're gonna probably beat
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. I couldn't really hate on it. Guess to
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: me there they play each other in the regular season.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: They play each other really tough. So if I'm looking
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: at a team in the a f C that has
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit of sleeper potential, I guess it would
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: be the Chargers. But I just want to give that
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: out to people right now. Like to me, if I'm
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: gonna lock up my money, I want to lock it
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: up on a couple of long shots or a team
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: that can make a QB move. Not really, the Chargers
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: are we are they are? They are right, chead, They
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: kind of are what they are. I'm not about Look,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I've given the Chargers my love, I've given the Chargers
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: my money, I've given the Chargers my faith. We know
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: what they are, right, I don't. I don't believe in
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Brandon Staley as the decision maker. I don't think he
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: puts his teams in a position to succeed, even if
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: he was a little bit more thoughtful and more responsible
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: with the play calling. This is a team that historically
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: is snake bitten, bad injuries, fluke injuries. They can have
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: the best defense in the world. I don't think they're
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: going to be able to sustain through a season. They
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: are not going to consistently be better than the Chiefs
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: in the Chiefs Division. I am off that bandwagon. And
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: I think what's challenging for what you just laid out
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: in terms of finding value in the NFC is that
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: there are other than the Bears. There aren't a lot
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: of teams that I think have the right pieces in place.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: And I do think there's one a f C team
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: that I'm going to get to, but I do want to.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I do want to run down the odds for some
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: other a f C NFC teams because I do think
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: it's interesting, right, Like, there's nobody I think the Cowboys
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: are frauds just right. I can believe in the Niners
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: because of Kyle Shanahan and because we saw enough from
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: Brock Purty that if he ends up being the guy,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: possibly right back until the middle of the season, they
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: could make a trade. They could also make a trade. Obviously.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: We can believe in the Eagles. Lions at thirty to one,
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: come on, like, we we know we're not doing that
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: because we don't think there's value there. Packers at thirty
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: to one, we're not doing because we don't know who
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the quarterback is going to be. Rams are semi interesting
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: because there is going to be some aggression. They will
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: be healthier, probably getting through sort of the Super Bowl
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: hangover rams it. I don't get that number though. I
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: don't get why it's lower. It's not lower like again,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: I don't want to it's too high sports books, but
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: these lines are a bit tight. Yeah, thirty seven to
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: one right now with Fandal, it doesn't seem it seems
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: like they should be fifty to one. UM and then
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: like the Giants are forty two to one again another team.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I wanted to take him at fifty two one. To me,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: that's a good value the Giants team. But either the
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: pros a better or the books are just getting tight
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: with the line. But I love the value of the Giants.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Like there we know the history of the NFC East,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: right the same team hasn't won the division back to
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: back years, and I think it's up to twenty two
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: years now. We like the Giants upside, like they're gonna
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: get a bunch of guys off the books next year
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: and they'll bet on maybe maybe build a more gable
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: team that he wants to build. Um, you know coach
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: of the Yre, Brian He's he's a good guy. He's
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: got a good team. But forty one two one me
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: and chatting biting on that. So I'm hoping these numbers
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: drop a little more because I just the books again.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Last year, we had a couple of different obviously ugly, ugly,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: big long swings on some of these underdogs. The only
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: one that really made it with the Jaguars, So that's
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: we're trying to be picky here. To me, the best
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: value is still the Bears. Like one, I still think
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: they have some value left there. So um uh. We
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: are getting some questions on AMP about one of the
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: teams that that the one a f C team. I
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: was going to bring up Cleveland Browns. We love the
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns all year last year with Jacobe Brissette, we
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: thought they were undervalued. Liked their defense, we love their
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: offensive line, we love their running game. The question is
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: will Deshaun Watson be fully back. If he's fully back,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: one for the Browns, that's to me a flyer to
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: take in the a f C because he should be
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: one of the best quarterbacks in the a f C. Yeah,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: and another two we're about to talk about Denver. These
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: are two different, like two teams I do want to
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: talk about, but they're both teams that it's impossible for
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: me to give them to you guys right now in February,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Like I just I can't do it. Where I honestly
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: lean more towards Denver to give out right now. Um,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: but I'm just not because of you know, obviously because
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: of the division they're in. So my issue with the
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Browns here is I think Joe Burrows that dude. I
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: think he really is that guy, and he is such
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: a game changer where it's kind of the same feeling
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I have with Josh Allen in that division of like
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: it's his, it really is his. Like we've seen it
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: out two years in a row, Joe Burrow win this division. Um,
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: so much bs going on in Baltimore. It's hard for
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: me to want to be on their side too, because
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: it's like there we saw their defense. I mean, they're
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: really good, the Ravens, but they've got a lot of
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: issues right now, especially that Lamar is just not happy.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: So I want to take all that noise and back
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: this Brown's team. But Watson showed us nothing. Chat, I
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: think you're in agreement with it. I mean where he
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like the man we were used to, and
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: two two and a half years ago was a long
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: time to see what he is, which was a guy that, yes,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: he was practicing and he was around. It's different than
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: being in the game and different beat writers. I read
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: out of the Browns um you know at Ohio talking
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: about the Browns is they were trying to put him
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: in spots to challenge him right there, trying to make
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: him be uncomfortable because I knew they were going to
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs and they wanted to see what they
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: had at him. It's like, really, is that really what
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: they wanted? They didn't want to put him in easy
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: spots just to get comfortable and running the offense. So
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: I think they're just saying those things a safe face.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: I just think he's not what we were used to.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: So Um, for me and the Browns, I'm happy to wait. Like,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: if anything, I could see these as dropping a little more,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: maybe when people maybe start betting since the yup a
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: little more, maybe even the Ravens if it is Lamar
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: coming back. So um, I'll wait on that one. The
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: Browns um, I'll love to hear your view is on it.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: But which is interesting? I can't put the money on
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: to Shawn at this point. Ah, I was going to
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: counter with what you just said that isn't this the
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: time you make the bet because we don't know to
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Shaun and we did see him give us nothing, and
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: we like everything about that team, And to me, it's
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: no different than making a bet on the box hoping
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: that they're going to trade for Tom Brady. We kind
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: of don't know the quarterback situation. We think the quarterbacks no.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: But my point is is, but like, but then what's
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: what's when is it low enough? Right? Like? Your your
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: point is now until you just made the point that
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: with the Ravens, with some money coming on the Bengals,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: the Browns might drop a little bit more, and that
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: makes sense to me. Okay, then I can wait. But
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: like there're thirty one right now in Jersey Browns. Yeah,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: that's that ship should be right when I get I
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: see in fandwel in Connecticut, right, So that's not that's better? Right?
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: So my point is maybe we need to give people
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: a threshold that are listening, because it's every book does
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: it differently in every state, so I would touch it.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: But thirty five, that's that's bad that's bad value to me.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: So that's just that's just my opinion of it where
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: I don't want to touch it at thirty five yere
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: in Jersey. All right, well that's fair, but to me,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: that's why I that's why I was leaning into the Browns. Um,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I don't like Denver. You know, we've talked about. I
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: loved Denver last year obviously with Russell Wilson and was
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: quite wrong. Um, there are a team this year, though
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: I got some bad news for each shot. It's that
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: they're literally gonna be our team. Brother, Like, I'm all
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: in on them. So because whither can do it now? Yeah,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: either can do that now or we can just wait
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: until August. And people hate me because I've just been
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: talking about them for the last four months. But that's
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: how my job is. People. I'm gonna shoot on a
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: guy for a year like I just did with Russ,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: and then I'll be all in on him the following
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: year because that's where the value shifts. So new coming
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: to the year, if they made the right coaching move,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: I'd love this team because they have an incredible defense
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: and the offense is there, like the pieces are there.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: They got the coach and yeah, do I want to
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: make fun of Sean Payton for having weird fake teeth
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: kind of, but he's an offensive genius and you get
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: that man in the room, see what you want about him.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: He is incredible. Again, every little bit of ounce of
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: talent out of the quarterback position. So if Russ is cooked,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: I don't care. I'm getting way better value this year
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: than I did last year and betting it. So I
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: think it's a good number and I'm willing to pay
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: at that price. Uh, the fact that he might not
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: be because we've seen it time and time again, most
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: normal teams have a Super Bowl hangover, and the Rams
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: were the forest end of that spectrum. Right, they completely
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: ship the bed fell off and they have a top
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: ten pick whatever it is, or maybe they traded that
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: pick away. I don'tber anything. So that's the far end
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: of the spectrum. I don't think the Chiefs are gonna
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: be that, but I think the Chiefs will be close
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: with to you what the Bengals were this year, which
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: was a really good team, but that if the Ravens
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: were healthy, healthy, the Ravens probably would have won that division. Right,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: they were ahead of them by a couple of games.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: You saw the Bengals came out of the gate stumbling.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: That's kind of usually how it is with these Super
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: Bowl teams coming off a year like that. So just
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: in the value in that division, I know I talked
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: to the charges earlier. I would wait on the charge.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: I think you'll be able to get a better number later.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: On the Broncos, I'm just gonna grab now just because
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: I think other pros are gonna battle. I just think
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: the public might be off this one. The pros are
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: gonna like it. It's just a good team that now
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: has a really good coach, and they have an owner
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: that wants to spend money. So these are all things
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I look at and shop around. Once again, I've seen
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: a couple of forty five the ones out there on
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Denver on certain books. So standel right now they're showing
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: thirty five to one. I don't hate it. I just
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: think if you can find a forty one to one,
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: try to find that instead. I take them thirty five. Uh.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: For the record, I am seeing on the Bears, fan
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Will has the shortest right now at six. But in Connecticut,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: where there are two other books, one of them has
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: him at seventy to one. One of them has it
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: at eight one. The one that has it at seventy
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: one had it at a hundred one until some kind
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: of big player came in and made a bet that
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: needed approval has dropped like a stone. Well, I hope
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: you put a thousand on because that would be that
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: would be a hell of a story to hit that
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: hit the Bears went on the Super Bowl, because I
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: know that's one of those where seven figures. Uh what,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: all right? We just talked about the Browns, We talked
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: about the Broncos, we talked about the Bears. UM any
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: other teams whose names start with B that we should
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: talk about just to make sure that we're thorough here.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think when you talk about the Bucks. I
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: don't think when you talk about the Bengals. UM. Now,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: once again, if you want to throw if you want
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: to throw bets on these teams you believe in them,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: go for it. But I like to wait on these
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: top teams. This time last year, the Chiefs were at
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: seven oh one. Right. What happened in August? All the
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: love had shifted from the Chiefs. Everyone was talking down
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: on them, and I gave them out literally a week
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: before the season kicked off with chad On convinced me
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: at eleven o one. So if you would have taken
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs in February, would have got shitter odds and
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: the books would have held your money for all those months.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: So these top teams, that's why I don't even give
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: them out. If I'm gonna have a book, hold my
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: money for the next year, I want crazy odds like
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: we have with the Jaguars last year, and it's such
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: a year we don't have the Jaguars. But that was
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: kind of a unicorn situation, right We had a we
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: had a team in place, and they had a coach
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: step in and the public hated them and the pros
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: hated them right like they that was insane for them
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: to be one. Do I want to come in here
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: and tell you to put money on the Texans. No,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: but I will be putting money on the Texans people.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: If you're looking for my craziest long shot, bet it's
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: the Texans. I'm getting a couple of books that are
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: getting me three one like I gotta do it. That
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: got Damiko Ryan's um. I think uh Matt Mitchell's boy
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: went there right Kingsbury. Did he officially sign there. I
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: know they were having a conversation with him. I know
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: that they talked with him and they that there. It's
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: to me, I think he'll take the job because they'll
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: be like, we'll let you take the quarterback. I know
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: he has a whole relationship. Might have been c. J. Strouss.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: I forgot which quarterback it is, but like there's some
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: guy that he's pet, he's paired up with. They're just
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: looking for a spark there. To me, they hired uh
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Bobby Slovak, not Cliff Kingsbury. Oh wow, that's a big deal.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Rumors are it would be Baltimore. Oh today, Uh, the
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Ravens hired the Georgia Georgia offensive coordinator. Yeah, I think
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I saw it before it came on. So to me,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: with Houston, they're not going to win the super Bowl,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: but in that division at three, if they get some
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: young stud quarterback, we get a Cam Newton type. If
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: we get this kid that is just a unicorn, that's
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: what we're looking for. We're just looking for a team
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: that can steal a division. And no Jaguars. Not that
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: I'm saying I gave up on it, but I pretty
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: much did. I think there are two and seven at
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: one point, and I was like, that was one of
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: my dumber bets I've ever made. I mean I talked
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: that months about them in that division. I was looking
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: like an idiot because that division was so bad they
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: were able to come all the way back and win
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: that division. So yes, so I think the Jags are
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: still the best team that division, of course. But Chad
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: and I talked every year there's always a team that
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: comes in fourth in their division that flips the following
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: year and somehow wins the division. And that's no secret.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: People like I'm telling you what we do every year.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for these teams that can be the that
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: were the fourth seed in their division and can flip.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: So what do we have. Three years ago we had
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: the Bengals at a hundred seventy five to one make
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: it to the super Bowl. That was the freak of freaks.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Last year we had a hundred fifty one. The Jaguars
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: make it out of the first round into the second round,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: which was a big deal for them to make a
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: divisional round. That was an easy position for me to
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: hedge on taking that Chief's team. That's the same thing
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: we're hoping for this year. I mean, Chad just talked
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: about the Bears. If you can find eighty to one,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: that's a nice position to have, especially you know the
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: pros are hitting the number. The fact that's come down
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: so much other books, that's a good value. I'm not
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: saying Houston is gonna be the team that wins it all,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: but just if you've got ten bucks in your account
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: to win three on their future, throw it on there.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Like to me, that's just a nice little value bet
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: where if they hit on the quarterback, I think this
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: team could be pretty good. We saw at the end
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: of the year there they played teams tough, right, I mean,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: they took the Chiefs to overtime. I think they took
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Dallas down to the wire. Um, they was upset the
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Eagles in the middle of the season. They have talent
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: on that team. I'm telling you, football, it's not that
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: far off. A lot of these teams. A lot of
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: these teams do have the guys on the team. They
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: just needed coaching and a couple you know, a list
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Blue Chippers stud athletes added to the team. They might
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: be able to do that this year with Houston, right,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: they got the draft capital to make a move to
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: get a quarterback, and I think they're gonna go out
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: there and free jesty and be able to attack that
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: defense and keep at into it. So I love Dmiko Ryans.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: I think he's a great coach. I'm excited for the
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Houston team. One chad longest shot bet of the off season.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: We'll be talking about them a bunch coming up until
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: this year. Just sitting here in February, I think you
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: just take it just in case they do hit on
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: the quarterback. This will drop down two d one just
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: in my opinion if they hit in the first round.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: That's how much quarterback means in this league. So I'm
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: just gonna take the value on Houston. Well, I gotta
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: tell you right now, I'm not seeing Houston any higher
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: than two hundred one, at least here in Connecticut, and
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: consensus UH is around one thirty to one. But you
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: mentioned there at the bottom two eight, which which book
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: vandal I don't know, you know what's funny in Connecticut, Vanduel,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: I have a hundred You know that's ship. Yeah, and
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: maybe that's part of the regulations chat, I don't know.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe you guys have some some regulations stuff there, but um,
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: I'll post it into the chat. Here's my here's my question.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: You mentioned going from first to worst or worst to first.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: You mentioned the NFC East the only other team and
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: this is the last thing I want to talk about
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: that sort of fits into that mold. Are the Washington Commanders.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: I know we can't do it though, with everything going
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: on to sale their team and it just feels like
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: they got a lot of bullshit going on behind the scenes,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: right yep, I'm just saying. I'm just saying it's crazy
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: decisions on this podcast all the time. I am right
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: there with you that I was honestly looking at them too.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: I just I couldn't get there. I just I can't
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: do it where I think they really are going to start.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: That kid Sam a quarter which nothing against him, he
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: had some moments. Um, he was fun to watch. I
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: don't think that kids that I just don't see him lasting.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: So that's one of those I just want to call
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: my shot early because you never know these quarterbacks. But
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: um yeah, just to me right now, I'm gonna tie
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: have any money the NFC said just gonna be on
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: this Giants team. I think they're the only team that
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: has any value. Alright, one thing I do wanna remind
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: people of. Evan Abrahams did an amazing round up of
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: the NFL betting awards, the best against the spread team,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: best over under teams. So let me run down here.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: The best against the spread team three The New York
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Football Giants UH They're a t S was fourteen and
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: five including the playoffs. Hundred dollar better was up seven
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: eight seven dollars on the year for the Giants. UH
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: this was the second best UM record as underdogs in
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: the last twenty years ten and two. Twelve Rams were
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: eleven and three. The worst A T S team this
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: year Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers for twelve and one. UH.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: Final against the spread standings New York Football Giants, Detroit
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Lines twelve and five, Cincinnati Bengals great run the end
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: of the year they went thirteen and six, Niners thirteen
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: and seven, Chargers, Chargers eleven six and one. The best
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: over under team Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota Vikings UM over the
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: last three seasons. The Vikings are thirty four, sixteen and
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: one to the over. I now pretty good, right, top
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: under team New York Jets and Tennessee Titans. They boast
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: finished the season five to the under they profited, and
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: I love Evan. They profited an extra five dollars on
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: the season due to a little more juice then on
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's lines over the course of the season. The best
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: over under teams Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles. Um,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: so good. Best money line team New York Football Giants. Uh,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: they finished ten eight and one straight up. A hundred
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: dollar better would win the year. Worst money line team
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Denver Broncos. Yeah, um, pretty good, pretty good? No, it's uh.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: I want to say, you just think through all those
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: different games this year and it's just like they're sharing teams.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: I couldn't get right all year And it was definitely
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: the New York Giants. Just couldnot get a read on
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: that team all year, not at all. Back in February,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes was plus seven hundred to win the m
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: v P. By the time the season got under way,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: he was plus eight hundred, only behind Josh Allen. He
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: had the second shortest preseason m v P odds for
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: the winner since two fifteen, behind Tom Brady. It was
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: plus four hundred um, you mentioned, uh the Super Bowl
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: champs Kansas City Chiefs. You gave it out and convinced
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: me right before the season started. They were ten to
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: one entering the regular season, third in the NFL behind
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: the Bills in the Buccaneers. Pretty good, Simon. We had
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: a great year. It really was one of those specially years,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: especially where we gave out five picks every week, even
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: including our bye week. In the final week of the year,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: you finished thirty and thirty three again to spread, which
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: obviously is pretty insane. We only had our worst week.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: It was two and three for the entire year, which
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: was pretty insane. We've never done that before. And you know,
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: playoffs obviously didn't finish the way we wanted. Eagles couldn't
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: come through for us. But overall, just really fun and
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: hopefully next year and get just as lucky, like it's rare.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: We both both pick. Oh, I don't know, you want
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: to give out Denver as a one seam what are you?
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: Either way, we both love the Chiefs and Eagles coming
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: to the season. Obviously we won't probably be that lucky
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: next year, but I'm already already looking forward to next
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: year brother and breaking down everything I just can't believe,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: you know, people were joking me like I made an
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: NBA that the other night. It's it's tough to stop,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: it really is. I don't know what I'm gonna do
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: these next couple of weeks, but I gotta break away
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: and get off the habit um because it's just you
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: know what it is. I told you all the time.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: I literally wake up and check lines and the odd
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: to night. Last night, woke up, open up the Action app,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: went to the NFL lines and there was just a
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: super Bowl line there. There was no new line. So
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: it is officially the off season and is the darkest
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: time in my life. So I'm gonna miss doing the
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: show weekly when you talking football. Well, unfortunately, we'll still
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: be doing the show twice weekly as we have been.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: We're not back on Thursday. Uh. This has been the
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast from the Volume podcast Network. Don't forget. Subscribe
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: directly to the Favorites through Apple Podcast, through Spotify, download
• 50:21
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• 50:24
  Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe, leave this five stars, say whatever you want.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, love you Yeah. Action Network reminds
• 50:40
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• 50:44
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