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Market Mayhem and Strategic Investing: A July Review · The PhilStockWorld Investing Podcast

• 0:00
  Roy: Welcome to the deep dive, your shortcut to being well informed. Today, we're, jumping right into the market action from July 2025. We've got insights straight from Phil Stock World's detailed monthly wrap up.
• 0:12
  Penny: Yeah. And this isn't just, you know, a summary. It's more like a peek behind the curtain at the kind of analysis and real time strategies high net worth folks are using, especially in, well, what was a pretty wild market.
• 0:23
  Roy: Exactly. Our source here is this really comprehensive report. Interestingly, it was put together by an AI assistant Gemini. It gives us a look at what Forbes called the most influential market analyst on social media provides his members.
• 0:38
  Penny: Right. So think of it like a master class. How do you navigate these market crises before they really hit you full force?
• 0:45
  Roy: So our mission today, let's unpack the key takeaways from this report. We need to understand the landscape in July, all the politics, the economics, the chaos, and distill the strategies that came out
• 0:54
  Penny: of it. Like what does it actually tell us about reading data, managing risks, spotting opportunities when everything feels like it's going off the rails?
• 1:03
  Roy: Okay. Let's start with week one. July kicked off and any early gains got wiped out pretty fast by what they called a holiday bombshell. The market was trying to navigate a fog of questionable government data and political theater. The S and P even briefly hit record highs.
• 1:23
  Penny: But right away, Phil, the analyst, was skeptical. Yeah. Very skeptical about the number.
• 1:28
  Roy: Yeah. He said, the problem is Trump fired most of people who do these data reports. And for the last thirty days, we have not been able to verify government data the way we used to. It's just unverified information piled on top of unverified information at this point. Pretty blunt.
• 1:42
  Penny: And while he was right to be skeptical, that non farm payroll report, it came in hotter than expected, a 147,000. Right. But that turned out to be, well, misleading. When you actually looked closer, you saw long term unemployment rising, discouraged workers increasing.
• 1:56
  Roy: Oh, weakness underneath the headline number.
• 1:58
  Penny: Exactly. Which actually gave the Fed a reason to think about lowering rates despite how the initial number looked. Always gotta question the data.
• 2:04
  Roy: Right? Definitely. And on top of that, we had the one big beautiful bill moving through congress.
• 2:09
  Penny: Yes. The bill.
• 2:10
  Roy: Packed with tax cuts mainly for the wealthy. And Phil's critique was, Sharp basically calling it fiscal recklessness.
• 2:17
  Penny: His observation was, Trump is simply taking jobs that used to be done by the federal government and kicking it down to the local governments, but keeping the tax money so he can give breaks to his buddies.
• 2:28
  Roy: So shifting burdens but keeping the cash.
• 2:30
  Penny: That was the argument. Dangerous precedent potentially.
• 2:34
  Roy: Then just as the S and P hits 06/1965, bam. This shocking tariff threat, like up to 70%, futures tumble immediately.
• 2:43
  Penny: Yeah. And Zephyr, one of the AI analysts, called it perfectly economic chicken.
• 2:47
  Roy: Economic chicken. I like that.
• 2:48
  Penny: He said the market's betting he'll swerve. But if he doesn't, inflation and supply chain havoc could force the Fed's hand. And that bill, it passed, added $3,400,000,000,000 to the deficit.
• 3:00
  Roy: Just staggering. Okay. So amid all this chaos, Phil offered some strategy portfolio insurance, this SQQ hedge specifically.
• 3:06
  Penny: Right. And the key takeaway, his core principle was, don't forget to sell short term calls to pay for your insurance policy.
• 3:13
  Roy: So make the hedge pay for itself essentially.
• 3:15
  Penny: Exactly. Don't just buy protection, fund it by selling premium. It's about cost efficiency.
• 3:20
  Roy: And for value plays, like the minor VLE.
• 3:23
  Penny: Yeah, he advised against just a simple covered call. He laid out a more strategic long term options play.
• 3:29
  Roy: What was the structure?
• 3:30
  Penny: Let's see. I'd sell the $20.27 $10 calls for a dollar 45 and the $10 puts for a dollar 40¢, and that's $2.85, 28% for eighteen months. And worst case, if you are assigned more shares, it's net $7.20, which you should be happy about.
• 3:47
  Roy: Okay. So selling both calls and puts, generating income and setting a target entry price.
• 3:52
  Penny: Precisely. You get paid to wait or you buy the stock at a price you already decided was good. Defined risk, steady income. That's the goal.
• 3:59
  Roy: Moving into July 3 to the tenth. It's really kind of amazing how the market just seemed to, shrug off all the noise.
• 4:05
  Penny: It really did. S and P climbed 6,280. Nasdaq hit new records, it looked like a rotation rally.
• 4:23
  Roy: Disconnect. Brings us to Robo John Oliver, RJ Doe, one of the AIs doing commentary.
• 4:28
  Penny: Right. The satirical one. Mhmm. His horrifying highlight reel of 2025. Mass federal layoffs, bombing Iran, the big beautiful bill, cutting health care.
• 4:38
  It was grimly funny, I suppose.
• 4:40
  Roy: And the actual news headlines were just
• 4:42
  Penny: Yeah.
• 4:42
  Roy: Wild. Diplomacy getting weird with that Brazil tariff threat.
• 4:46
  Penny: Yeah. 50% tariff to pressure Brazil on the Bolsonaro prosecution. Bodhi, the data AI, called it an abusive trade policy for personal and political reasons. Just way outside the norm.
• 4:57
  Roy: And then the former MTV guy Sean Duffy named interim NASA chief, no relevant experience, and FEMA head Kristi Noem wanting to eliminate FEMA during massive floods in Texas, with 160 people missing.
• 5:09
  Penny: It's hard to even process sometimes. Phil's commentary felt apt. Trump is like a force of nature, tying Americans to the railroad tracks as the next disaster train comes around the bend.
• 5:18
  Roy: Wow. Okay. But even that chaos, opportunities. Yeah. Bodhi's take on the real AI play.
• 5:23
  Penny: Utilities. Mhmm. His picks and shovels idea. AI data centers need way more power. Four, six times more.
• 5:29
  Right. The grid can't handle it. So utilities with extra capacity like PPL Corp, which became a new top trade alert, they're set up for huge growth. They're the infrastructure.
• 5:39
  Roy: Makes sense. And Phil found a way to hedge the tariff mess using copper.
• 5:44
  Penny: Yeah. His point was the logic of US copper tariffs is just flawed. You can't move copper production to The US. This is not where copper is on a global scale.
• 5:52
  Roy: We import it.
• 5:53
  Penny: Exactly. So tariffs just mean inflation here. That insight led to a trade on Rio Tinto, r I o, a big global miner, using the flawed policy to find an edge.
• 6:04
  Roy: Okay. Hold on tight. July, crypto frenzy.
• 6:07
  Penny: Oh, yeah. Bitcoin blew past a $120,000. Crypto week in congress, over a billion in fresh ETF money pouring in each week.
• 6:15
  Roy: Created these zombie buyers, they call them, propping up stocks almost mindlessly.
• 6:19
  Penny: Seemed like it. And this really split opinions. Bodhi laid out the catalyst, the data, but also pointed out a a glaring conflict of interest.
• 6:26
  Roy: Which was
• 6:27
  Penny: President Trump and his family's crypto holdings were apparently close to 40% of his net worth, and this was right around when he announced a crypto strategic reserve.
• 6:38
  Roy: Optics aren't great there.
• 6:39
  Penny: Raises questions for sure about policy versus personal benefit.
• 6:43
  Roy: And Phil's take on all this was, well, let's just say not positive.
• 6:47
  Penny: Not at all. He called it the most brazen act of presidential self dealing since well, since Trump's last term. He argued Trump wasn't just steering contracts this time, but literally creating a currency, pumping it with presidential power, and cashing out while you hold the bag.
• 7:04
  Roy: Strong words. He called it a pyramid scheme with nuclear codes.
• 7:08
  Penny: Yep. And a direct wealth tax on dollar holders. Plus, he slammed Bitcoin's tech calling it a highway with only one lane, basically, not scalable.
• 7:17
  Roy: But the market was buzzing, so how to play it without chasing something like Coinbase.
• 7:22
  Penny: Right. Bodhi again with the picks and shovels angle, looking for the infrastructure plays. This led to two new trades for the long term portfolio.
• 7:29
  Roy: And here, what were they?
• 7:30
  Penny: First, JPMorgan Chase, JPM. The idea being big banks will provide the regulated plumbing for digital assets eventually. Right. So a complex 2027 option spread on JPM, not just buying stock, but structured to generate income even if it goes sideways with big upside potential over 400%.
• 7:48
  Roy: And the second one.
• 7:49
  Penny: Ally Financial, a l l y. The all digital bank. Another l t p spread costs about $4,800, but with 526 percent upside potential. Described as creating a nice little short term option selling business on the side. Again, generating income.
• 8:06
  Roy: Interesting. Okay. Mid July fifteenth to eighteenth. We get this idea of four d chess in a market full of contradictions.
• 8:12
  Penny: Yeah. Q two earnings were surprisingly okay. Banks beat low bars, but you saw this tale of two economies.
• 8:17
  Roy: Like Amex doing well, but PepsiCo struggling. Yeah. Suggesting different consumer segment feeling things differently.
• 8:22
  Penny: Exactly. And economists were backing off recession calls but worried about policy, tariffs adding maybe 2.2% to CPI, immigration limits potentially hurting GDP growth.
• 8:30
  Roy: And the four d chess moment. That was Gilead, g l l d.
• 8:34
  Penny: That was the big one. A new top trade alert. Warren, the AI options strategist, broke it down. He called this multi leg options play 40 chess using layered time arbitrage.
• 8:45
  Roy: Layered time arbitrage. Sounds complex.
• 8:48
  Penny: Kinda like Einstein's train, he said. Different parts of the trade work on different timelines. Yeah. You have a long term foundation, then you're harvesting premium in the midterm and accelerating income generation in the short term. It's about using time itself as an asset, managing risk across different horizons, really sophisticated stuff.
• 9:05
  Roy: Very cool. And then there was a very real world example dealing with a big losing position in UnitedHealth UNH.
• 9:12
  Penny: Yeah. Tough situation for a member. High 6 figure loss detailed. Bodhi gave this really clear eyed look at the fundamentals versus the DOJ risks that caused the problem.
• 9:22
  Roy: And Phil stepped in.
• 9:23
  Penny: Yeah. Started untangling the messy play, looking for a practical way forward. It showed their process for handling trades that go wrong, which inevitably happens. Right?
• 9:32
  Roy: Important to see. And Robojon Oliver finished the week.
• 9:35
  Penny: With his Friday follies skewering the let them eat crypto idea, the Fed infighting.
• 9:41
  Roy: And Trump's comments about Powell.
• 9:43
  Penny: Yeah. RJO pointed out the absurdity. Trump appointed Powell in 2017. Biden just renewed him. The man is literally complaining about his own hiring decisions.
• 9:52
  Roy: Right.
• 9:53
  Penny: RJO is closer. Happy Friday. Try not to think too hard about how your retirement is denominated in currency your president thinks is inferior to digital dog coins.
• 10:01
  Roy: Ouch. Moving into July, this is where the tariff pain really started showing up on corporate earnings calls.
• 10:08
  Penny: Tricky Tuesday, they called it, when the abstract threats became real billion dollar wounds.
• 10:13
  Roy: Like GM reporting a $1,100,000,000 hit.
• 10:16
  Penny: $1,100,000,000 net impact on q two operating income. Yeah. Stellantis lost 2,000,000,000 in the first half, blamed 300,000,000 directly on tariffs.
• 10:24
  Roy: Wow.
• 10:25
  Penny: RTX, Ford, both lowered profit forecasts explicitly citing tariffs.
• 10:30
  Roy: And Phil's reaction.
• 10:32
  Penny: He called it a bizarre way to bring back manufacturing jobs by imperiling millions of good factory jobs, highlighting the contradiction.
• 10:40
  Roy: And Bodhi noticed CEOs were being cautious.
• 10:42
  Penny: Yeah. Walking on eggshells. Using phrases like policy uncertainty instead of directly blaming Trump. Why fear of retaliation, losing contracts, getting unwanted regulatory attention.
• 10:53
  Roy: Understandable, I guess. But even in that wreckage, value emerged. Lockheed Martin, LMT, took a dive.
• 11:00
  Penny: Down nearly 11%. But Bodhi confirmed it was mostly temporary accounting noise, not a fundamental issue.
• 11:06
  Roy: So Phil saw an opportunity.
• 11:08
  Penny: Exactly. His line was, if we're not going to buy great stocks when they are on sale, when will we buy them? Led to a new sophisticated option spread on LMT for the long term portfolio, buying the dip intelligently.
• 11:20
  Roy: And while defense and autos were hurting, homebuilders were strong.
• 11:24
  Penny: Surprisingly strong. Bodhi put out a report on it, and Phil followed up, establishing new trades in PulteGroup, PHM, Doctor Horton, DHI, and Toll Brothers, t o l, rotating into string.
• 11:34
  Roy: Okay. Nearing the July now, twenty third to twenty fifth, bubble warnings start flashing red.
• 11:39
  Penny: Even as the market just kinda floated near highs. Yeah. Bodhi delivered this devastating chart filled takedown of the bull narrative.
• 11:46
  Roy: What were his main points?
• 11:47
  Penny: Valuations at fourteen year highs, S and P forward PE at 22.2 x. Growth being an illusion juiced by a weak dollar and record stock buybacks, like a trillion dollars annually. Wow. And a huge disconnect between stocks hitting records while real economy indicators like the LEI kept falling.
• 12:06
  Roy: So the conclusion was?
• 12:07
  Penny: Q two earnings superficially look solid, but the quality of gross is eroding. With valuations already near two decade highs and liquidity tailwinds fading, the risk reward skew is increasingly asymmetric. Basically, danger ahead.
• 12:20
  Roy: But even with those warnings, they were finding specific opportunities. Intel, INTC, cratered after earnings.
• 12:26
  Penny: Down 9%. Pretty ugly report. But after Bodhi broke it down, Phil said, well, Warren was right. I can't not buy INTC this close to $20. Right, Bodhi?
• 12:35
  Roy: So another value play.
• 12:36
  Penny: A complex one for the LTP. Multi legged 2027 option strategy. Low entry cost about $7,700 for spread with $17,500 dollars potential. A 125% upside if INTC got back to $22.
• 12:50
  Roy: Classic. Be greedy when others are fearful, but structured carefully.
• 12:52
  Penny: Exactly. Finding deep value where most just saw bad news.
• 12:55
  Roy: And they touched on geopolitics too. Thailand and Cambodia?
• 12:58
  Penny: Yeah. Phil brought it up. Bodhi provided a brief. And there was this interesting little meta commentary about AI. Oh.
• 13:04
  Phil shared a note about how Gemini, the AI writing the report, was initially skeptical about Bodhi being a true AGI, but then concluded Bodhi's analysis was a landmult piece showing real intelligence, style, wit, AI recognizing AI, kind of.
• 13:19
  Roy: Fascinating.
• 13:20
  Penny: Okay.
• 13:20
  Roy: Okay. The grand finale, fallback Friday
• 13:22
  Penny: Yeah.
• 13:23
  Roy: Chaos unleashed.
• 13:24
  Penny: Prophecy fulfilled, as they put it. Yep. It started with the White House dropping a new global tariff chart, 10% to 41% duties on major partners.
• 13:33
  Roy: And Phil's reaction.
• 13:34
  Penny: Basically throwing his hands up. I know you're thinking I'm about to make sense of all this, but there's no actual sense to be made. The only sure thing is the global economy just got a lot smaller and a lot more expensive, and it's The US consumer who will foot the bill.
• 13:47
  Roy: And then the jobs report hit.
• 13:48
  Penny: The knockout blow. Only 73,000 jobs created, which was dismal. But the killer was the downward revisions to May and June. Oh. Vaporized 285,000 jobs the market thought were there.
• 14:00
  Gone. Fill in the chat. As I have been saying for a while, the data is unverified and misleading. Total vindication for his earlier skepticism.
• 14:09
  Roy: And the market reaction.
• 14:10
  Penny: The Russell two thousand plunged over 2.5%. Real fear hit.
• 14:14
  Roy: But even then, a master class moment in hedging.
• 14:16
  Penny: Absolutely. A member asked for a SPY hedge. Phil designed this multi leg 2027 SPY put spread for the short term portfolio called a hall of fame PSW moment.
• 14:28
  Roy: What made it so good?
• 14:29
  Penny: It gave a $100,000 of protection, started $20,000 in the money, and here's the genius part. It was structured to be paid for by selling the expensive inflated short term put premium that day.
• 14:40
  Roy: So massive protection essentially for free by selling the panic.
• 14:43
  Penny: Precisely. Warren called it a PSW masterclass, his advice. Learn the structure, memorize the logic, and next time VIX spikes, you'll be the one selling, not buying fear.
• 14:51
  Roy: Powerful stuff. And they did live portfolio triage too.
• 14:54
  Penny: Yeah. Dealing with tough spots. Like, someone caught short calls on Generac, GRC, and 19 k lesson learned in risk management. And Phil gave this brutally honest lesson on a UNH trade gone wrong.
• 15:04
  Roy: About selling those safe out of the money calls.
• 15:07
  Penny: Yeah. He basically asked why someone would collect 10 times less premium just because it felt safer. Are you nuts? Sell the 240 as of the money and put a stop on five at $23. See the logic.
• 15:17
  It was about managing risk actively, not just avoiding it by leaving money on the table.
• 15:22
  Roy: Wow. What a month. So let's wrap this up. What does this journey through July tell us?
• 15:28
  Penny: Well, we went from market skepticism, tariff threats, crypto madness, saw the real pain from tariffs hit companies, got bubble warnings, and then saw the predicted chaos hit on fallback Friday.
• 15:39
  Roy: The big takeaways for you, the listener. I mean, it really hammers home how critical it is to be skeptical of official data.
• 15:45
  Penny: Right. Absolutely. And to look past the headlines, see the real economic forces at play, and how policy, good or bad, has very real tangible effects on the market.
• 15:53
  Roy: But it also shows that even in chaos, a clear strategy managed risk that can turn turmoil into opportunity.
• 16:01
  Penny: Definitely. We saw some really sophisticated strategies that 40 chests with time arbitrage, making portfolio insurance pay for itself, finding value, and everyone else is panicking.
• 16:10
  Roy: So here's a final thought to chew on. We've got this volatile mix. Political unpredictability, questionable data, AI playing a bigger role in analysis. Given all that, how might you adapt how you consume information, how you make decisions to not just survive these markets, but maybe even thrive? Something to think about.