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Cubs/Brewers MLB + WNBA Best Bets Monday 7/28/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: hack Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what day it is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: possibly have, act with you as I always am until
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Oh and five
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: you about this anymore. To the slumps, the slump discontinuous,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: even know what I should do at this point, other
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, it's towed
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: back with you better off dead. It is Monday, July
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: twenty eighth, the start of a new week. Baby. Uh,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: maybe a new streak is continuing because or starting, I guess,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: because the one play I gave out on the show
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: was a winner yesterday Miami and Milwaukee in baseball under
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: the total that was a winner. The game was low
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: scoring the whole way. It was decent pitching duels two
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: to one the eighth inning, I think, and then it
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: wound up three to two. Luckily it did not go
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: into extra innings though, because that could be a problem
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: with the ghost runners and stuff. Unders basically go there
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: to die. So luckily we did get that. Scott, what's up? Oh,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: thank you sir. They might want me to become a regular.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Good morning as well. Yes, let's be
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: gay with today. It's today. Yeah, I don't think I
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: have anything else to really say about yesterday. Oh, I
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: will congratulate that christa dude whatever his name was, if
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: he's back. Very good call in the WNBA from that
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: guy on the Connecticut Sun. They actually won in a
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: monster blowout, so my WNBA. So I don't even know
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: what I'm talking about with the WNBA anymore. Man, even
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: though I'm actually winning on the WNBA season, I haven't
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: made a play in probably over a week now in
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: the WNBA, and I'm not going to today either. The
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Connecticut Sun though, who I just mentioned coming off beating
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Golden State by thirty one points, that's never gonna happen again.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Connecticut is on a back to back now, I'm playing
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: at home against Seattle, so I would have to imagine
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: not a very good spot for Connecticut coming off that
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: blowout win. They're probably a pretty much an outlier of
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: a game there. I mean, I didn't really look at
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the statistics in this game because I'm like, I'm just
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: not gonna bet anything or give out any bets. Connecticut
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: had a ridiculous shooting game fifty three percent from the field,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: forty one point four percent from three Golden State unbelievably bad.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Thirty three point nine percent from the field, twenty eight
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: point one percent from three also pretty low. Golden State
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: got massacred in the turnover battle twenty four turnovers, so
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I mean that game a lot of outlier statistics in
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: that game, so I would not expect Connecticut to do
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: better than that in any game for the rest of
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the season. Seattle is coming up a pretty bad loss
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: to Washington, so I expect Seattle to actually show up
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: in this game. It is a third straight road game, though,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: and you're having to lay a huge price with Seattle
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: off from nine and a half to twelve. Now, I
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: don't know if there are injuries here in this game,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: but I mean I would lean to Seattle, but I
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: just don't know if you'd want to lay a point
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: a spread like that. I mean, that is a ridiculous spread.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: It's just Samuelson still being out for the season there
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: for Seattle, which obviously would not be anything that would
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: increase the line on Seattle. So maybe actual money coming
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: in on Seattle in that one. That is still the
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: only way that I would lean in that game. But
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lay twelve and a half points in
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: that game. Liberty are at Dallas as well, Liberty coming
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: off losing a wind streak. They had a five game
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: win streak snapped by the La Sparks at home. Liberty
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: loss is like a pretty big favorite, but sometimes when
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: you lose a wind streak like that, it'll hang you over.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So I think it might be a little bit more
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: of a hangover effect maybe than a bounce back spot
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: for the Liberty, although they do get to get out
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: of home start a road trip, which that part of
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: it should actually be a positive for them, And because
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: they did lose as a double digit favorite at home,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: they might potentially show up focus here. Dallas is on
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: a back to back staying at home. Dallas got destroyed
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: yes without Beckers, which I thought that Dallas would step
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: it up, as I said injured Player theory spot, I
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: thought they would step it up without Beckers in there,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: and they still got blown, blown out, blown out. They
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: got blown out by the Aces yesterday. So I don't know.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: I'm Dallas, They're still on a back to back. I
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: don't know if Beckers is coming back in this game
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: or not. We can figure that out right now. I
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: guess she is still well, she's out but listed as
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: returning today. That doesn't make any sense, so I guess
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on that and see if she's gonna
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: come back or not. If she does come back, I
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: still think that doesn't really make it that positive a
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: spot for Dallas though, because if she comes back, they
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: have to work her back into the rotation. So I
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: don't love that either. The Liberty are up on the
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: spread a little bit from eight to eight and a half,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: but you're not gonna find me laying these like road
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: favorites like this for the most part, so it's all
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: stay away Major League Baseball. I'm gonna give out two plays.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a first five innings side, and
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a full game total, which I
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit worried about the bullpens in
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: that game, but hopefully we still get it. The side
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: is gonna be in this first game, and I'm gonna
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: skip it for now, and hopefully the market read remains
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: in agreement with me on that one, because I want
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: to go with the market man if I can. Like
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: more often than not, I like to have my like
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: my sense of the game lineup with what the market
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: is telling me more often than not Arizona at Detroit.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: So we have a lot of new series starting today. Man,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Monday sometimes gonna be a thin baseball card, but today
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: it's like every team is playing. I think Detroit just
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: snapped that long loss streak. They had six seven losses
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: in a row, whatever that was, I think six. They
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: finally won yesterday, beating Toronto pretty easily ten to four.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Though Detroit did use a decent amount of their bullpen
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: in that game, Arizona actually used less of their bullpen.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Arizona got smacked by Pittsburgh. They actually just had a
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: three game series with Pittsburgh where they actually won one
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: of the games, but they only scored one run in
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the entire series. These Pittsburgh series are so bizarre, man,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Like You're just seeing weird like shutouts all over the
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: place involving Pittsburgh one way or the other. I still
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: don't really understand it. Arizona going from Pittsburgh to Detroit
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: might be good for them to just get out of
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: there could be a decent bounce back spot. So as
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: far as the scheduling is concerned, it looks like Arizona
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: could be in a little bit of bounce back spot.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Detroit might be in a good spot as well, though,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: because they just snapped that lost streak. So sometimes when
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: you do that and you get back to winning, it
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: could give you some new momentum. So both teams are
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: kind of in a positive spot in my opinion. Detroit
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: used more of their bullpen, but Arizona has the worst
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: of the two bullpens, so I think you probably still
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: have to give Detroit a little bit of a bullpen
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: edge here, even though they're a little bit less rested
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: at Eduardo Rodriguez is gonna be the starter for Arizona here.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: His numbers on the season are not good. Five point five,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: one point six to five whip, None of that is good. Obviously,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty much the same home and away. Arizona's
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: lost four straight starts of his He's been kind of
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: all over the place. Man. He's coming up an okay
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: start against Houston where he shut them out for six
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: and a third innings, but he did walk three guys
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: in that game. This month, he has a pretty bad
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: seven point three six ERA, a lot of it because
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: he gave up eight earned runs against Kansas City, which
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: is not a good sign. I mean, you're giving up
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: runs to Kansas City, there's obviously something wrong with you.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Thirteen to five strike out walk race year this month
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: is not really that impressive either. So e Rod, I
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: would not say is in very good form right now.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Detroit, who are still pretty good
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: at home despite the recent slide. They have a good offense.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Detroit are very weird because only Bias
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: and Torres. Is that only Bias and Torres have ever
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: faced him before. Torres accounts for twenty seven of the
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: twenty nine at bats again and overall they are three
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: forty five hitters off in three forty five batting average, oney,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: three nineteen ops, seven walks, six strikeouts, but almost all
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: of it is Tores. Torres is nine to twenty seven,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: with four home runs off of him, a ridiculous home
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: run rate, all six of those walks and all seven
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: of the strikeouts, and buys one for two of them.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: So very strange you see one guy with that much
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: of a sample size. But that means that Erod might
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: be able to pitch around Torres, and he's actually unfamiliar
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: to a lot of the other players on Detroit, and
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I think Ed Rodriguez was actually on Detroit, right, Yeah,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: he was, so before he went to Arizona, he was
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: on Detroit. I don't know if he's actually faced Detroit
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: since then, so that could be an extra motivator potentially.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: When a pitcher goes up against their former team, sometimes
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: they aren't motivated a bit. But he's really had a
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: drop off, man. He was decent. He was actually good
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: for Detroit in twenty twenty three, and since he's been
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: on Arizona's numbers have declined massively. So it's hard to
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: get a gauge on this game, really, man, I mean
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: obviously that's the reason why I'm not gonna play this game.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And then Detroit has Troy Melton starting. He is a
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: young pitcher, only has one major league start so far,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: which didn't go well against Pittsburgh. He gave up six
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: runs against that pretty weak lineup. Did strike out seven
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: and five innings, so that's a good sign that he
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: had a really high strikeout rate in the game. Did
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: walk two guys, he gave up two of them runs.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Maybe he was a little bit nervous, but the two
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: of them runs of course meant that he wound up
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: giving up more runs than he would have otherwise. It
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: wasn't a horrible start, though for a debut, I wouldn't
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: say it actually kind of looks a little bit worse
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: than it was, Like the strikeout stuff was there. Melton
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: does have some decent stuff. I mean, if you look
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: at his scouting in his minor league stats, he's not
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: that bad, so he might do better here. Obviously, the
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: d Backs had never seen him before, so when you
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: have a young talented pitcher, they can have an edge
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: over the opposing lineup when they haven't been seen before.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: The opposing lineup kind of has to figure him out.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Although I know it didn't work out first game against Pittsburgh.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, this game is definitely a stay away for me.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to do with this game.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, we could look at the market read. It
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: looks like there's a strong market read on Arizona, though
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Detroit up for minus one twenty three to minus one
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: twenty eight as a favorite. There eighty four percent of
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: tickets on them, but fifty five percent of the cash
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: coming back on Arizona. I'm still wondering about Arizona's like
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: mental state though, after you know you're getting up close
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: to the trade deadline, Arizona traded Josh Naylor away, So
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: you know that Arizona's basically indicating that they're sellers now
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: and they're not going for it this year. So again,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: it's hard to gauge. I mean, I keep mentioning that,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: but that's just the way that it is in Arizona.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're still gonna show up and play though,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Like when you're out there in the field, you're not
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: gonna intentionally lose a game, you know what I mean,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Like you still have pride, you still want to win
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: these games. So we'll see what happens in that game.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Very very difficult to gauge that game for me, Arizona,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Arizona and Detroit. There Andrew, what's up? Man, couldn't watch
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: the Angels game of the Brewery only available on Roku. Yeah,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: they won, which actually surprised me. Against Seattle. Yeah, I
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: did not expect them to actually win that game. Lance
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Hendrix is at his name. He was actually pretty good
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: in the game yesterday Colorado at Cleveland. This is another
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: one of those games. This is a game nobody wants
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: to watch. Probably a game that you shouldn't be betting.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is technically returning home from a road trip, but
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: they only went to Kansas City, so we really only
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: have one really long road trip return on Mondays. You know,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: That's one of the things I like to look for.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: I like to look to fade the Sunday night teams,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: and I like to look for teams that are returning
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: home from long road trips and fade them. Which there
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: is only really one today, and It's not gonna be
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: one of the games that I'm getting involved in or
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: recommending a play on, since, as I keep saying, I'm
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: not actually betting these games here right now, trying to
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: get my financial state in order. Here Cleveland, they are
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: returning home from that road trip a big divisional series
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: again Kansas City. They did have to play an extra
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: game on Saturday, they had to play a doubleheader, so
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll be a little bit extra tired for that reason.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Colorado's coming in from Baltimore. Colorado, I believe just lost
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: again yesterday. Don't really trust either bullpen or though Colorado's
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: bullpen is the worst of the two, both offenses are bad,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: but again Colorado is the worst of the two. I
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: think Colorado's starting pitcher is the worst of the two.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Bradley Blaylock really young guy though, so it's possibly he
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: does get better. It's possibly he's gonna be better away
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: from home. Eight point six seven e RA one point
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: seven to eight whip. I mean, that's not very good
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: at all. Obviously, he has been better on the road
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: though away from cors Field. It's a small sample size though,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: but four point five R in the road the last
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: two starts this month. He's only allowed three runs at
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: eleven innings, so that's not that bad. But he also
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: only has one strikeout, so he's not striking out anybody,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: so that's kind of a concern. It looks like he's
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: not really a strikeout pitcher all. I don't. I just
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: don't expect much from him at all, man, even though
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: those starts like look okay on the surface, but I'm
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: not buying it really up against Cleveland, though, they are
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: a pretty bad offense, and Playlock has never been seen
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: by them before, so maybe he does have a little
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: bit of an edge in that respect against this Cleveland offense.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: I think the preferred starter here is definitely slay Chacony
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: because he has proven himself a lot more than Playlock
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: has in his young career for Cleveland here three point
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: seven six e IRA this year, one point two to
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: three WHIP. Pretty decent numbers there. He's been worse at
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: home though, four point nine to eight ERA at home
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: not great. This month, he's been pretty decent three point
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: nine to five ERA, eighteen to six strikeout walk ratio.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has won his last three starts. He's given up
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: two earned runs a piece in three of these outings,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: and then he did give up six in a game
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: against the A's, but he went eight and the third
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: innings in that one. He's got at least six innings
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: in every start this month, so they're really they're letting
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: him go. Oh man, They basically have him off the leash,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: which is something I do kind of like to see
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: as long as that picture isn't gonna get burned out
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. And now he's going up against
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: uh wait, who are they playing again? Oh yeah, Colorado?
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Colorado really bad offense CHACONI. I mean, I would expect
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: him to do okay against them. Uh they only have
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: ten at bats against the lifetime, they have no extra
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: base hits, three strikeouts, no walks. They do have a
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: three hundred average off of them, but three for ten
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: with no other like statistics isn't really that good and
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: six hundred ops against him, So I think CHACONI is
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: still pretty good against them, should do fine. But obviously
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: if you want Cleveland, you're having to pay a huge
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: price for it, And even though they do have the advantage,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: like I think across the board in this game, other
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: than the fact that they're returning home, I wouldn't do it.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I mean this price, I mean, should Cleveland be favored
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: by this much against anybody? Probably not up from minus
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: two third down for minus two to thirty minus two
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: twenty seven. They're very public, ninety five percent tickets, ninety
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on them. We do see
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the under under the nine here
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: fifty per tickets on the over, seventy percent of the
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: cash on the under. I mean, you do have two
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: pretty weak offenses, so that's probably kind of the argument
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: for the under. And Chacon he looks like he's set
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: up to do pretty well against Colorado play a lock.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure that he's actually gonna do well
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: in that game, So I don't think I would want
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the under either. No, I do not care about Nascar.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: I don't watch it. I don't touch it. Uh, I
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: don't know how Bubba Wallace won that he wasn't scared
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: by a noose this time. I guess the under which
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: you mean the one I gave out yesterday. Yeah, that
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: worked out pretty well. Boy and miss yet, Oh, you're
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: saying that I'm gonna have an under on that game?
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Is that what you think? Well, we'll see because you
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: know that I do. I do have a play on
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: that game, because I listed it in the in the
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: title here, and I did say one of my plays
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: is a total. Is it the under in that game?
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Tampa Bay At Yankees. Yankees finally ended
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: lost streak there. Yes, well, they had lost three in
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a row. I mean they haven't been doing that well though.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: The Yankees actually had one of the worst records over
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: the last month or so. They did beat Philadelphia yesterday.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Yankees still kind of struggling though, man, I mean, their
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: offense is good, but their bullpen hasn't really been that good.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: They used most of their best relievers yesterday's The Yankees
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: bullpen not exactly in the greatest shape here. Tampa's coming
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: in off a loss, getting swept actually by Cincinnati. I
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: think they didn't use as many of their better relievers yesterday.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: I did say I liked the under in the first
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: five innings in that game yesterday, and the whole game
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: went under. So I actually, I mean, you got to
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: give the bullpen advantage to Tampa in this game. But
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the question, one of the questions is going to be
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: how early is the bullpen going to get involved in
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: this game? Because Drew Rasmussen is pitching for Tampa and
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: he's having a good season. He's actually been their best
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: starter two point nine to three ERA one point zero
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: three whip. Tampa is just kind of getting away with
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: having a whole rotation of like mediocrity basically, and they're
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: just they're just winning games anyway. So maybe Tampa isn't
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: gonna be as good for the rest of the season.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Rasmussen has been good though, He's pretty decent on the
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: road to three point three EER. The question is how
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: deep is he gonna go in this game? Because he
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: was going all this you know, the starters workload, and
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: then they started limiting his pitches way down. He's gone
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: no more than four innings since June twenty fifth. Now
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: it looks like maybe they kind of like ramped his
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: pitch count down so they could get him ready for
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: the All Star Game. But I don't think they knew
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: he was gonna be in the All Star Game until
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: like maybe one start before that, so it kind of
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: makes sense that that was a shortened start. And then
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: after the All Star breaking came out and he had
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: a mediocre start against the White Sox and they let
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: him go four innings. Is he gonna get ramped up
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: again and go like five plus innings again? I don't know.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe he will, but that's the question because
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: right now we don't really know the answer to that.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: But he has been pretty good throughout the course of
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: the season. He just doesn't allow many runs. I mean,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: he's allowed no more than four on runs in any
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: start all season. But if you will, if you like
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Rasmussen here, you're gonna want him to get, you know,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: deeper into this game than what he has been doing.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: He does have good numbers against the Yankees and thirty
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: one at bats a one twenty nine average allowed. He's
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: allowed zero extra base hits to them, three point fifty
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: eight batting average or three fifty eight ops excuse me,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: batting average will be bad. OPS that's really good. And
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: twelve to four strike out walker Racius to Rasmussen has
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: good matchup numbers even though the Yankees are good at hitting.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: So I kind of like Rasmussen in this game. He's
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: gonna be opposed by the rookie Cam Schlittler for the Yankees.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Here Schlitler have. I think he has two starts now
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: so far, as ERA four point three five one point
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: five to five whip is definitely too high. He's been
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: worse at home five point oh six e r at home.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: But again it's only two starts, and really he wasn't
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: that bad. He went at least five innings and both
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: of them didn't allow more than the three ear and
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: runs in either of them. Really, the walk rate has
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: been his one problem. His strikeout rate is fine, ten
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: and ten and a third not that bad, but five
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: walks that's where the problems are coming in. Man, So
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: he's gotta get his wildness under control a little bit,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: and I think he might be able to. I mean,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: he is a decent prospect, and obviously, I mean I
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: don't have to switch to it. But Obviously Tampa has
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: never faced him before, so Schlittler could have a little
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: bit of an edge there over Tampa over their hitters
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: because they haven't seen him before. So the way that
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at this game is under in the first
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: five innings because we don't know how long Rastmistin's even
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: gonna go in this game, but while he's in there,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: he does look like he has a matchup edge. Schlitler
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: may have the matchup edge as well against the hitters
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: that haven't seen him don't really want anything to do
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: with the Yankees bulp, and so I think first five
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: under is the way to look at this. The total's
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: gone down from nine to eight and a half on
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: the full game, uh, all the way to juice to
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: the under, so fairly significant move. Even though we see
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of ticket seventy percent of the cash on
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the over, I'm not sure if I'm buying that. I mean,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: I think the public certainly will come in more often
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: than not on and over in a Yankees game, and
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: some of the money looks like it is coming in
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: on the Yankees up for minus one point fifteen to
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty seven or minus one twenty six now
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of tickets seventy three percent of the
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: cash on the Yankees. I mean, I'm not sure that
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: I totally see the argument for that. I mean, I
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: would not want anything to do with the Yankees bullpen. Obviously.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: The huge advantage of the Yankees have is that their offense
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: is the way better offense, and they're not having to travel.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: They're staying at home, I believe. So that's the other
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: thing for the Yankees at least. Yeah, they're staying at home,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: So Tampa is having to travel in from Cincinnati. But anyway,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: first five under I think is maybe the best way
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: to look in that one. Dodgers are going to Cincinnati,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is staying at home, and they're coming off a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: sweep of Tampa. Like I said, so they do have
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: kind of some momentum right now. I mean, it's not
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: like Cincinnati's gonna be in a letdown spot facing the
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: Dodgers here. Dodgers are having to travel in from Boston,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: so they do have a little bit travel here. That
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: was a big series against the Red Sox. Man the
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Red Sox were able to take the last two games
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: of the series. Dodgers, are they gonna be hung over
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: it all coming into this game. It's possible. Cincinnati, I believe,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: used more of their bullpen yesterday, though Dodgers' bullpen is
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: not that good, so I don't really trust either bullpen
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: in this game. But I like both starters. I mean,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: you're looking at Boyd versus Miss today, which is definitely
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: a good starting pitching matchup. This one looks to be
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: pretty entertaining as well, with Yamamoto pitching for the Dodgers
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: against Burns for the Reds. Yamamoto obviously has been good
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: throughout the season two point five to five VRA, one
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: point zero five WHIP. He's better on the road one
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: point eight to four Roadie Rail, though Cincinnati a difficult
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: place to pitch, but he's just doing well overall. Man,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: He's back and form again. He had one really bad
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: start against Milwaukee this month, but it didn't really affect
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: his numbers because he only went two thirds of an inning.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: Overall this month, he still has a two point two
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: to ninety RA and a twenty three to six strikeout
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: walker show, so he is still pitching well up against
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Reds. Good numbers, although it's a small sample
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: size of thirteen six strikeouts, two walks, one fifty four
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: average allowed four ninety seven ops. So the Reds really
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: have not done any damage against him. And he's going
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: up against the rookie Chase Burns, who has bad looking
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: numbers for sure, six point six y five ERA, one
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: point six to two whip. But this guy, and it's crazy,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: he's from Italy. Man, you would not guess that based
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: on his name or I guess his appearance. This dude
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: is from Italy, so he's he's my brother. Man. Burns
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: has been better at home though, four point zero ninety RA.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: But I know his stats look really bad on the season.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: But the one thing that he does do is he
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: racks up a ton of strikeouts. Man. He has thirty
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: five strikeouts so far in twenty one and two thirds innings.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: So if he's able to stop being wild and stop
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: allowing you know, hits and hard contact, he's going to
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: be good, man, because he could fool hitters at the
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: major league levelf he's striking out that many guys, that's crazy.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: He struck out ten a piece in his last two starts.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: It was against bad offenses in Colorado and Washington, and
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: the Reds have lost four starts in a row behind
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: him after they won his first start, and he didn't
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: get the win in that one. But I like Burns, man.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: I think he is going to find a way to
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: settle this down a little bit and not be as wild.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: He does throw really hard, he does have really good stuff,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: So I expect Burns to be better at some point.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Will it happen in this game, I don't know. Man.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers, obviously they're one of the best offenses in baseball.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: They are better at home though than they are on
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: the road. But this is a pretty offensive park here,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: So I do worry about Burns a little bit coming
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: into this game. But I do like his stuff. I
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: think he has a very high ceiling. I mean, I
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: think you still could maybe look at this game as
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: being a first five inning under play. Here we do
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: see the total just kind of sitting at nine. I
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: wouldn't want anything to do with the bullpens, like I said,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: But eighty seven percent of tickets on the over and
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: only sixty percent of the cash on the over, so
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: it's a public over, which makes sense. I mean, it's
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: a game in Cincinnati involving the Dodgers. Public will only
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: want to play it over in this game. But I would,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: uh yeah, I would look first five inning under if
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: I was gonna do that game as well. Atlanta at
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, Kansas City here, you go, Zach with your
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: team here. Kansas City did win that series against Cleveland.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: They've actually won two series in a row. It makes
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: no sense, man, They beat the Cubs and then they
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: beat Cleveland. They're staying at home, so Kansas City at
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: least has travel advantage here or they don't have to travel.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: They did use a lot of their bullpen yesterday yesterday,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: that which might be an issue with rich Hill on
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the mountain today because he's probably not gonna go that
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: deep into this game. So I think Atlanta may have
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here in this game. And their bullpen's
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: not as good as Kansas City's normally. But Kansas City
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: used too much of their bullpen yesterday. I think the Braves,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: I don't believe used as much of their Yeah, they
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: just kind of let well. Elder got destroyed, so I
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: apologize for all that. I mean, I don't like Elder,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: so I think you can never really bank on Elder
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: to do well. Ever, But the Braves kind of saved
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: their bullpen because they knew that game was totally out
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: of hand. So I actually think the Braves have a
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: little bit of a bullpen edge here. But of course
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: they've lost five games in a row and they are
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: traveling here, so the Braves have some negative momentum here
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: plus travel, so I don't really love the spot. But
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching matchup, you got to think
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: the Braves have the starting pitching edge here. With Spencer
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Strider pitching, I mean, he's the much younger pitcher and
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: the pitcher that has the way better stuff at this
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: point three point seven to two ERA, one point one
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: to eight whip, although he has been worse on the
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: road four point five to five roadyra this month doing
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: well three point four to two ERA. Is a really
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: high strikeout rate thirty two strikeouts in twenty three and
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings. But he's allowed ten walks. He's allowed
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: three walks or more in five No. Yeah, five of
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: his last six starts three or more walks. So Stryder,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: he's still too wild, man, He's got to get less
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: wild than that. And in this month, the home runs
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: have heard. I mean, he's a lot five home runs.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: But he's facing Kansas City here, so he might do well.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Kansas City's offense is pretty bad, one of the worst
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: in baseball really sorry, Zach, and Kansas City is a
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: more pitcher friendly park, so I'm not expecting Strider to
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: do really poorly in this game. He has decent numbers
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: against case C although they haven't really seen that much
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: of him. They only have four hitters have seen it before.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Sixteen at bats, eight strikeouts, two walks, two fifty average
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: five eighty three ops. So I think Stryder will be
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: okay in this game. As I said, he's going up
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: against Rich Hill, Zach's favorite guy yet Dick Mountain. Both
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Dick's are pitching today. Actually, Dick Fits is pitching for
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox today too. Dick Hill and Dick Fits,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Dick Mountain and Dick Fitz. Rich Hill he was decent
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: and he's from Boston, by the way, so there's Boston
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: all around. And rich Hill was on the Boston Red
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Sox I think twice during his career he was on
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. Rich Hill, as we know, oldest player
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: in the league. He made one start and he was
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: decently effective in that start. He has a one point
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: eighty r and one point six whip. Obviously, the whip
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: is not very good. The strikeout walk numbers were not
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: good in that game, but it was against the Cubs,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: and the Cubs were a very good lineup, and he
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: went five innings in that game, which was more than
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: I expected. He only allowed one earned run, so the
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: fielding wasn't really helping him. Behind him, he only allowed
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: six hits, two walks, wasn't great. One strikeouts certainly not great.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Although Hill isn't really a strikeout guy. I mean he
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: tries to get guys to, you know, just make soft
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: contact and get a lot of outs that way. Rich Hill,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: up against who do we have the braves here in
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: his career, actually has good numbers against him in fifty
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: five at Pat's fifteen strikeouts, four walks, two batting one
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: eighty two batting average, allowed a six h one ops.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Do we trust any of those numbers though, that Rich
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Hill has. I mean, he's so old at this point
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: that I don't know the we could say that he's
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: the same guy at this point. I really don't know
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: what we're get. What we're gonna get out of Hill here,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is a big road favorite and probably too heavy
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: a favorite, man. I mean, I know Atlanta has the
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: better offense. I know Atlanta has the better starting pitcher
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: on the mountain here. Atlanta probably actually has the bullpen edge,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: like I said, as well, just because they're more rested.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: But laying a price like this on the road with
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: an Atlanta team that can't win a game right now
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be that great of an idea to me.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus one seventy to minus one sixty five,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: but they actually getting ninety six percent of the cash
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: it looks like right now, which I'm not sure that
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: I buy that. I don't see what professional money is
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: going to be coming in on a road favorite like that.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: A fifty eight percent of the tickets on Kansas City.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know that Kansas City would really be public either.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: I think generally when you see Atlanta here and it
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: looks like it's still the market is still kind of
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: indicating that way that Atlanta is kind of an anti
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: public and professional side here, which I'm I mean, I'm
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: certainly not going to get involved in it that way.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: I think the one thing is professionals keep going with
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: this thing like, Atlanta is not as bad as their
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: record looks, and they keep doing that and Atlanta keeps losing,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, well, you just have to pick your spots, man, Like,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: I agree that Atlanta's talent is a lot better than
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: what their record is right now. But their record, I mean,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: it's really really bad right now. Yeah, it should get
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than that. But you got to
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: pick your spots and pick the right prices when they're playing.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: And I don't think this is the right price. The
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: price is wrong. Bob. I still have not watched Happy
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Gilmore too though, and unfortunately rip to Bob Barker and
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Carl Weathers by the way, although they killed off Chubbs
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: sorry spoiler in the first one anyway, so they didn't
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: need Carl Wethers to reprise his role anyway, and that
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: in that one anyway. Yeah, I don't even know what
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: I would do with this game, to be honest. Yeah,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: I mean it's a tough call in that game. I
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: don't even know as far as like team totals, what
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: even makes the most sense Atlanta maybe over their team total,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: I mean it's a pretty high total of nine and
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: a half if you want to fade the Rich Hill
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: phenomenon here, because I think everybody's kind of like, yeah,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: everybody's just kind of thinking like, oh, Rich Hill is,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: like you know, it's this whole thing now, it's like
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: kind of overhyped. Speaking of the other Dick Boston at
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Minnesota here, Red Sox starting a road trip here, but
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: it could be a little bit of a letdown spot.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: A lot of times when you start a road trip,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: you tend to be focused. But the Red Sox just
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: beat the Dodgers twice man a big weekend series, and
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: now they are stepping way down in class here. The
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Red Sox just had to face out of the All
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Star break. They face Cubs, Philly and the Dodgers, so
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: they face three of the top four offenses in baseball. Basically,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: now they have to step way down in class to
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: face this weak Minnesota offense. And Minnesota also does not
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: have a good bullpen. Red Sox have the better bullpen,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: but both bullpens saw a lot of usage yesterday, so
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: I don't trust either bullpen first of all coming into
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: this game because of the rest scenario, Like guess you
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: have to give the Red Sox the bullpen edge just Overall,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: their bullpen has been better than Minnesota's. The Red Sox
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: have the better offense, but their offense is way worse
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: on the road than it is at home, so that
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: kind of evens it out a little bit too. Dick
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Fitz pitching for the Red Sox here, he's not been
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: that good four point eight six ERA one point two
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: to seven whip. He's better on the road though, three
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: point eight road ERA. Last start was a road start,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: and it wasn't good against Philadelphia. He gave it four
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: runs and three and a third innings because he gave
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: up two bombs, but he did have four strikeouts no walks,
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: so his command has been okay this month. He has
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: an eleven to two strikeout walk race here this month.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: He's only allowed more than three or in runs twice
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: this season, but the Red Sox have lost almost all
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: of his starts and lost all but two of them,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: so things aren't really that great for fits. Against Minnesota,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: he has decent numbers in a small sixteen at bat
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: sample size. He only is one strikeout against them though
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: in one walk, but he's on the two point fifty
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: batting average and forty four ohps, so his numbers against
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Minnesota are pretty good. He's going up against Simeon Woods Richardson,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: who has mediocre numbers four point one four ERA, one
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: point three seven whip not something that I like. Three
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: point one to two ERA at home though, so he
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: is better at home over the past month. His two
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: point five to five ERA looks good. And the fact
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: that he hasn't allowed more than three or runs in
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: any start going all the way back to early June,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: that looks like he's pitching well. But I would kind
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: of counter that, even though Minnesota's actually won four of
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: his last five games. It's like, well, that means Woods
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Richardson is pitching well, right? I don't think so, man,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: because this month he has a twelve to eleven strikeout
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: walk RACEIO. That's not good at all. He's walking way
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: too many guys. He walked five guys last time out
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers. There he walked a burger. There, the
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: five guys against the Dodgers. I know it's a good
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Dodger lineup, but still that's not good. He failed to
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: go five innings in each of his last two starts,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: including one against Pittsburgh, where you put too many guys
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: on base mostly via the hit six hits in four
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: and two thirds, so he's not really actually in good
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: form right now, So I don't think I'm gonna put
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: much trust in Woods Richardson here. Red Sox really haven't
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: seen him. The only Bregman has seen him, and Bregman
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: has hit him well two for five, home run and
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: one strikeout against him, no walks. Although it's such a
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: small sample size, there's nothing you can really take away
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: from that other than you got a lot of unfamiliarity here. Actually,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: really kind of from both pictures against these lineups, there's
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of unfamiliarity. The money looks like it's kind
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: of come in towards the Red Sox. Minnesota has dropped
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: from minus one to twenty three down to minus one
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: oh seven fifty three percent takes fifty eight percent of
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on the Red Sox, so it
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: looks like the Red Sox are taking some of the
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: money on the side. The totals kind of just sitting
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: at nine and a half juice to the under. Eighty
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: three percent of the tickets are on the under and
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of cash on the under, so it
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: looks like it might be a public under in this game.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I actually don't hate the over in this game because
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: I don't really trust either starting pitcher that much. They
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: might not go that deep into this game either, and
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: then you're gonna have to get some overworked bullpens into
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: this game. Although again, the offenses aren't really that formidable.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Red Sox on the road they aren't very formidable, So
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: tough game to read. Man Cubs Milwaukee will skip because
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be one of my best bets, which you
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: probably already know what it is. Philadelphia at the White Sox.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: The White Sox just lost to the Cubs twice, two
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: out of three. White Sox and they had to use
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: some of their bullpen yesterday. White Sox bullpend isn't even
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: good anyway. Their offense is obviously not good, so Philadelphia
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: is stepping way down in class here. But they are
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: coming off a couple of big series where they actually
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: won both series against the Red Sox and Yankees. So yes,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is stepping down a class to face a way
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: worse team in the White Sox. But they also might
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: be in a little bit of a hangover spot because
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: they're coming off those two big series but maybe it
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: doesn't even matter that much because philadelph I mean, even
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: though their bullpen is bad, I mean the White Sox
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: bullpen is also bad. Like which one of the bullpens
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: is worse? I don't know, White Sox. This is offense.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: White Sox have the second worst offense ops wise and
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: all of Baseball. White Sox are a bottom bullpen, so
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: they're actually worse than Philadelphia's bullpen, not by a whole lot,
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: but by some Philadelphia's bullpen ERA is worse though I
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: have this arranged by Whip, so both bullpen's not very trustworthy.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: But Philadelphia probably is gonna have their starter go deeper
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: into this game because it is Christopher Sanchez, and he's
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: been probably the best pitcher all season that did not
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: make the All Star Game. His numbers are really really excellent.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: Two point four ERA, one point zero nine WHIP. He's
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: been even better on the road two point one seventy
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: R in the road. He is coming off a complete
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: game against the Red Sox, were he only allowed one
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: run and struck out twelve and didn't walk anybody, only
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: four hits allowed to absolute domination of the Red Sox.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Did throw over one hundred pitches though, which he only
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: done that believe one other time all season. So does
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: that mean he's gonna be overworked and kind of have
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: a worse start here. I mean, it's hard to have
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: a better start than that, But I don't know, because
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: he threw over one hundred pitches in a pretty similar
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: start against the Giants and did not have any sort
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: of letdown really after that. All he did get a
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: little bit wild in the start after that with three walks.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: But even so, he's been really, really consistent. Man. He's
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: allowed one run a piece in every one of his
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: last six starts. He hasn't allowed more than two earned
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: runs since May, and any started when he did that
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: he allowed three earned runs a couple of times. He's
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: allowed more than three earned runs one time all season.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has been winning behind him as well. What is that?
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: They've won six of his last nine starts this month,
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: three out of four this month, thirty one to four,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio one point one to ninety RA. I
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: think we get it. I mean, Sanchez is pitching at
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: an elite level right now, and he's facing this really
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: bad White Sox lineup. White Sox haven't seen a lot
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: of them. They only have three hitters we've ever seen
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: him before. They only have twelve at bats, so they
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: do have a three thirty three averages, six sixty seven ops,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: no extra base hits, no walks, one strikeout. So I
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: still think Sanchez is gonna come in and pitch well here.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, the only hitter that's really done anything against
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: him is Taylor three for seven, So I think Sanchez
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: should be fine in this game. He's going up against
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: Davis Martin, who has been okay for the White Sox
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: three point eight to nine ERA, one point two four
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: whip better at home three point oh two ERA. I
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: believe he just came back from injury. He was out
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: for more than a month, came back and had kind
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: of a shaky start at Tampa. He walked four guys
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: in five innings, but he did help hold them to
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: three earned runs three strikeouts. It was an okay start,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: not great. Against Philadelphia. Martin basically hasn't been seen only
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: Kepler has seen him before. He's zero for two off
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: and so Martin actually pretty unfamiliar to Philadelphia because Philadelphia
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: isn't kind of this like hangover letdown spot. I mean
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking looking towards an under in this game actually
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: kind of makes some sense, although I wouldn't want to
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: involve the bullpens in that. So maybe a first five
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: under again in this game makes sense. Total has dropped
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: a little bit. It was juiced heavily on the over
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: eight and now it's juiced less on the over eight
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of tickets on the over ninety four
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under, though, so it
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like the money is agreeing with that and
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under. Philadelphia is a huge favorite
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: and minus two ten on the road very public. I
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: don't think you would want anything to do with Philadelphia
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: as far as the side is concerned there, even though
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: yes they do have an advantage pretty much across the board,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: especially offensively obviously, but the better starting pitcher as well.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: But if it's a low scoring game, laying a price
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: like that on the road might not be the way
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: to go. Miami at St. Saint louis starting to struggle. Man.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: They lost the last two games against San Diego split
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: the series after winning the first two. I don't think
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: they used a ton of their bullpend yesterday, but McGreevy
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: unfortunately did not pitch well because I thought that he
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: was the right side yesterday. He didn't pitch well yesterday.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: Miami might be in a bad spot here because they
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: had actually won twice against San Diego and then they
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: beat Milwaukee twice. They were on a four game win streak,
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: and they lost the win streak yesterday, and like I say,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: with a bad team like Miami, Miami, by the way
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: I think the record is, I think they're worse than
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: the record in indicating man, Miami, they're like almost a
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: five hundred team, I don't think they're even close to
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: that good. I think they're definitely worse than that. Although
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: their bullpen actually has been kind of mediocre, their hitting
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: has been kind of mediocre. But after they lost that
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: win streak, I think they're in a bad spot after that.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: A lot of times the team like that will be
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: hung over after they lose a win streak like that,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: coming down from that big series against Milwaukee. Although Saint
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: Louis does still have a pretty good record, I do
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: like Miami starting pitcher better. As far as the bullpens
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: are kind of a wash man. They're both kind of
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: mediocre bullpens on the offense I think is probably in
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: favor of Saint Louis Miami. Their offensive numbers aren't that bad,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: but they don't really score that much, so I think
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis has the better offense. I do think Miami
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: has the better starter here. Edward Cabrera pitching pretty well
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: right now overall this season three point four to eighty RA,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: one point two to four WHIP. Those are good numbers.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: He's been worse on the road though, four point three
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: to five ROADRA, so I don't know if we want
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: to trust him on the road, but he is definitely
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: in good form right now this month two point six
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: six ERA and very impressively a twenty three to one
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio. One of the things about Cabrera he's
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: usually a bit too wild because he's a good strikeout guy.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: He can throw hard. But if his wildness isn't a
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: factor anymore, no walks in his last three starts, we
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: might be onto something here. Cabrera might actually be good.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Just why. As far as the Red Sox trade targets
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: were going, I thought Cabrero was one of the better
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: guys to target for them. It was like, they're not
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: even gonna be making any deals even of that level though,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if the trade rooms swirling around
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: are gonna get in Cabrera's at all, but he's probably not.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know, because he's been pitching well. And again,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: these pitchers might want to look good to you know,
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: help their trade stock if they want to go to
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: some team that's more competitive. He's really had one bad
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: start this month, which was the one start he didn't
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: go five innings against Baltimore. He didn't even walk anybody
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: in that game, just got a hit kind of hard,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: give up eight hits. But other than that, he has
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: been really good recently up against who are we playing here?
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: I don't even remember now, Yeah, who was this up against?
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis. Yeah, that's right, I dude. I mentioned in
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: that It like completely slips my mind. He has good
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: numbers against Saint Louis. It's a small fourteen at bad
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: sample size though, five strikeouts, one walk, one of them
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: run allowed to Brendon Dunovan, one forty three average overall
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: five fifty seven ops. So I would say Cabrera, I
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: think he is in line for another good start here.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, I like him better than Andre Polante,
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: who I don't think is very good for Saint Louis.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: Four point nine one ERA, one point three seven whip ARCA,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: what's up man, thanks for hanging out. Polonte worse at
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: home as well, five point zero three ERA at home
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good recently. He's allowed five or more earned
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: runs in three straight starts. Saint Louis has lost five
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: starts in a row of his so he is obviously
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: not pitching well at all. Six point seven five ERA
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: this month, twelve to seven strike at walker ratio. All
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: of that is real bad. So I would not want
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: anything to do with Polante. Oh and Polante against Miami.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: I think he does actually have good numbers against Miami though,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: because their offense again is not very good. Uh it's
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: only seven at bats, only three of their hitters have
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: seen him, but they're only one for seven with a strikeout,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: so one forty three average, two eighty six ops. But
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: I don't trust Polonte here. I think Cabrera obviously is
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: the pitcher that's in the way better form, So starting
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: pitching wise, yeah, I mean you could look to Miami
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings here, just go with the
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, which I think is strongly in favor
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: of Cabrera. I don't love the spot that Miami is in,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: and I think once you get into the bullpens, the
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: advantage is a little bit less for Miami. At the
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: very least, Miami is public, which is insane. Ninety three
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets looks like they have ninety eight
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. I don't know if that's accurate.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: The line has dropped a little bit on Saint Louis,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: down for minus one twenty to minus one fifteen, but yeah,
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: I'm I mean, if you can get Miami as an
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: underdog in the first five innings with that starting pitching matchup,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: I don't mind that being a look for you there.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: I almost don't even hate Miami full game, honestly, in
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: that game, although at some point I think Miami is
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: going to get worse. But I think Saint Louis also is.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: I think both of those teams have records that are
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: not indicative of how bad those teams actually are. Washington
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: at Houston, Houston staying at home, and you gotta think
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: they're pissed off right now. Man. Houston, they were in
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot after sweeping Arizona, I think, and they
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: lost that first game to the A's. But when I
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: handedgap these games, I actually kind of liked the A's
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: and I think three out of the four of the games.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Houston did lose with Hunter Brown on the
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: mound in that series, but the series didn't set up
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: that great for them. But they got to be embarrassed. Man.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: They just lost really badly, did the A's. They got
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: outscored horribly. Two in the series. They got outscored thirty
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: two to seven. I think in that series of my
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: math is right there by the worst team in their
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: division and they're the top team in the division. That's insane.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: So you gotta think Houston is pissed. You gotta think
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: they're gonna come out with a little bit of fire here. Now,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: we do have to remember Houston does have some injuries
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: amongst their position players, so a couple of their better
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: bats might still be out of the line up here.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: Washington is so bad though, I mean Washington. I think
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Washington still has a disadvantage across the board in this game.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Washington has a travel disadvantage, and it Houston's gonna be
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: pissed off. Houston has the better bullpend by far. Washington's
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: bullpen is awful. I don't think either bullpen saw a
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: ton of usage yesterday, but Washington's bullpen is the worst
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: one by far. Big bullpen advantage to Houston, and Houston
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: still has the better offense, I think, even without some
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: of those players, and so I think there's no advantage
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: for Washington at all in this game. Starting pitching also
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: is significantly in favorite of Houston in this game. In
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: my opinion. Washington is also coming enough beating Minnesota twice,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: so they've actually won two straight. Serious. I don't know
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: if they're gonna be feeling a little bit high on themselves.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: I mean maybe not when you're facing a team with
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: a good record like like Houston here, but we will say, Zach,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: what's something you're gonna moneyline parlay those? I mean, I
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: hate parlays because they're independent results and the books never
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: give you, you know, enough value on them in my opinion,
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: But I mean, if you want to parlay two like
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: big moneyline favorites to try to get them as cheaper
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: money lines, I don't really hate that because I do
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: think both those teams should win these games here I mean,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: I think they both have a huge pitching age, which
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about Texas in a minute. I don't hate it,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: but you know me, I mean, I just I don't
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: do parlays. Again. I just don't think the books give
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: you good enough odds on the parlay. Something could certainly
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: go wrong, although I do think that both of those
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: teams should win. Brad Lord as the listed starter for Washington,
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, his numbers are fine on the season, three
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: point three to nine ERA, one point two to six WHIP.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: He's better on the road, a two point eight six
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: e R on the road. But he's a reliever, man.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: He's coming out of the bullpen. He made a start
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: last time out, and I was surprised he went four
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: innings in that game. And I got caught because I
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: think I went with Cincinnati in that game. I couldn't
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: believe that that Lord only give up one run in
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: that game. I mean, he's not even good. He only
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: had one strikeout. And you have a game where Washington's
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: bullpen is gonna pitch more than half the game, and
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: they somehow the bullpen didn't even give up any runs
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: in that game. And that just doesn't make any sense
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: to me, Man, So I don't think it's gonna be
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: as good for Lord and Washington's bullpend this time out.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: I think they're probably gonna be saying, oh Lord by
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: the end of this what happened? Because this does not
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: look good to me Man for Washington here a Lord
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: against Houston, they've actually never faced him before, and I'm
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: not sure that's gonna be that much of an edge
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: for him, to be honest. Maybe you'll see Houston's bats
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: take a little bit while to get going in this game,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: which is one that is one reason why I worry
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit about, uh the Houston play there. But
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: uh so they might be slow to start here, and
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: they do have a couple of those injuries. But from
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Ravaldez obviously is the preferred pitcher here. I mean, he's
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: been really good two point six seventy RA, one point
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: one to three whip. He's been really good at home,
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: one point six sixty RA at home. We're at the
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: point now where I believe Houston has won thirteen starts
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: in a row. I believe for Valdez thirteen in a row.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: They haven't lost one of his starts since May second.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: That's just complete madness. It's completely insane. He's allowed more
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: than two earned runs over that stretch only twice, and
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: those were starts where he allowed three and four earned runs.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: Those were both on the road. One was against Texas
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: or their offense isn't that good. One was against Dodgers,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: who obviously are really good. This month, he has a
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: twenty one to three strikeout walk ratio. He's gone at
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: least six in every start going all the way back
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: to mid June two point three seventy ra this month,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, we get it. Valdez is pitching very, very
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: well right now against Washington. He also, I mean, actually
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: his numbers aren't that good against Washington. In fifty at
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: bats two sixty average is fine, but in eight nineteen
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: ops is a little bit high. Man, So he's allowed
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: some power from Washington. Three guys have home runs against them,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: three home runs, six walks to fifteen strikeouts. I mean,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: Valdez does get a little bit wild sometimes. Low has
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: done damage eight for twenty seven, one of the home
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: runs four walks. But if you can pitch around Low
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: the rest of the guys, I mean, Bell does okay
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: four for eleven with a home run and a walk,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: but those two guys do like basically all of the damage,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: So I think Valdez still will probably pitch pretty well
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: in this game. I don't think it's worth the price
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: tag though. Of course Zach is gonna parlay it to
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: get the price down on it, but of course Zach's
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: gonna need two independent outcomes to win there. The money
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: looks like it is coming in on Houston. They're up
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: for minus two twenty to minus two forty six. Eighty
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: nine percent take is ninety nine percent of the cash.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: A lot of the money coming in on Houston. I mean,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: I think the way to go here, and the total
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: is really low at seven and a half, but I
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: think maybe you could go Houston over their team total here, man,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: even with the injuries there, if they can get to
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Lord a little bit and then they can get to
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: this bad Washington bullpen, I think Houston may be going
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: over their team total, especially as embarrassed as they might
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: be after only scoring seven runs in the last four
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: innings against the A's. But then again, it does mean
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: Houston's offense is in bad form right now, so that
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: does kind of matter in baseball as well, So it's
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: tough to say what I would want to do in
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: this game, man, I mean it does look like Houston
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: as the edge, So it's like, still the Houston run
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: line is still actually kind of tempting in this game.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: But you're gonna need them to score enough runs and
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: they might not get the final at bat in the
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: ninth inning either, So you got to take all that
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: into account there. Texas at Anaheim. Anaheim as Andrew men
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: because that's his team, his wife's team. They did just
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: beat Seattle last night. They split the series with Seattle.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: It was a good game for the Angels, surprising for me.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: The only run they gave up was a big dumper
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: home run was the only run that the Mariners scored yesterday.
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is still not a good team though. Man, their
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: bullpen is very bad. Texas obviously has the way better bullpen.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: Anaheim does have a better offense than Texas. Texas offense
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: is terrible. Anheim's offense is mediocre, but the pitching is
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: heavily in favor of Texas. Here, Texas better bullpen, better starter. Here,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Texas coming up an easy eight to one win. Texas
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: is hot right now to the one six in a row.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: So are they gonna have a letdown here. I don't
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: think they will, because I mean, Anaheim is still, you know,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: kind of creeping up on them in the division. So
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know. The game does mean a little bit
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: more to Anaheim because Texas is ahead of them in
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: the division, but Texas they're streaking right now, man, So
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you want to really fade them here.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: So I don't disagree that Texas should win this game, though,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: I mean they have the momentum here. The starting pitching
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: matchup is a complete mismatch for Texas here, and the
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: bullpen is also a complete mismatch. Jacob de Grom pitching
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: for Texas having a really good season. Obviously, he's been
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: really good throughout his career two point two eighty RA
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: point nine whip, a little bit worse on the road
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: two point seven five ERA, that's still quite good. This month,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: he's gone well, he's gone five or more innings in
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: every start going all the way back to actually I
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: think every yeah, every start going all the way back
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: to April this year. Only once has he not done that.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: And over the last couple of months he's gone six
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: or more in all but one start. He's allowed three
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs in all but one start all season,
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: and that was way back in April. This month, he
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: has a three point one to three R and twenty
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: eight to five strike a walk ratio. He's pitching well,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: except he has allowed five home runs this month, so
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: he's got to get that number down. He actually didn't
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: pitch that well at in this exact ballpark at Anna High.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: He was only okay. That was his worst start of
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: the month. Actually, you give up three on runs in
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: five innings, five strikeouts, two walks. So is he gonna
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: struggle against Anaheim in this one because he did last
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: time out? And that does mean the Angels are recently
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: familiar with him, But I don't know. I mean, his
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: numbers are okay against Anaheim, thirty nine at bats. He's
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: sell him to a very low two oho five average.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: They do have some power off of him, though, in
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: five walks and thirteen strikeouts, so their OPS is a
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: little bit high against Jacob de Grom seven fifty seven ops.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Two of the three on runs were from uh Darnau, though,
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: so if he can pitch around him, he might be alright.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: I'm still expecting him to do pretty well though de Grom,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: and he's up against Jack Kohanowitz, who cannot get his
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: shit together man six point zero three ERA one point
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: six to three whip. Now, Kohanowitz was actually just down
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: in the minor, so I think he's just coming back
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: up to the majors. But he's been really bad and
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: six point six five RRA at home really really bad.
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: They send him down to the miners early this month
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: after he got wrecked by this exact Texas team. So
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: even though de Grom wasn't really that good in that
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: game against Anaheim in this stadium, Kohanowitz was way worse,
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: and he gave up eight runs to this really bad
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Texas line. I've been two and two thirds innings. He
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: allowed eight hits and three walks. I mean that is
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: just awful. So that performance got him sent to the miners.
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: I haven't looked to see what he was doing in
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: the miners, but I'm not gonna trust cohanawitz Man. I'm
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: not ready for to say that he's gonna do anything.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe they worked with them in the miners
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: and figured out something that was wrong with him, but
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been good throughout his career. His numbers are
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: not good against Texas and sixty five at bats four
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: walks to three strikeouts three twenty three average seven to
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: seventy eight ops. Even though de Grom there are some
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: stats in there that you might not like. With d
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: Grom against Anaheim Kohanowitz, all of his stats are way worse.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: So obviously that's the reason why Texas is this massive
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: favorite here. The open open money line was minus one
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: twenty five, but I think probably anahim at a different
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: starter listed, so I think once Cohanowitz was listed, the
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: number went way up to minus one ninety. That's how
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: bad he is. Ninety three percent of tickets, ninety four
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Texas. Texas is going to
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: be public. I mean, they have the better record in
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: they're hot right now, so the public will only want
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: to look towards them in some way. I worry about
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: Texas offense because it is not good, but they have
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: gotten to Kohanaw It's enough that I think they should
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: be able to get this done. I mean I might
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: even agree with like looking towards the Texas run line
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: in the swim because I do think they have a
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: huge pitching edge throughout all all of this game. But again,
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: is Zach's going with the money line parlay there? I mean,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: I agree with both sides at the very least that
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: we got going on there with Houston and Texas. The
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: Texas parlay there, I worry about the price tag that's
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: on it though. The Mets at San Diego. San Diego
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: is the team it's returning home from a long road trip.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: I mentioned there was one team that was they were
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: out on the East Coast. They actually went to Washington, Miami,
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: and Saint Louis. They have not been back at home
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: since before the All Star Break, so usually it is
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: a bad spot man for a team when they've been
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: on the road for so long and then they return home,
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: they have to get back to family life. It tends
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: to be a distraction. But maybe it won't be as
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: much of a distraction because the Mets have one of
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: the best records in the league, so San Diego might
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: not be distracted for that reason. But it is still
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: a travel spot return home spots not the greatest spot
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: for San Diego. But at least they're facing the Mets
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: because that's gonna have their attention. But also, the Mets
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: played last night, so you know me, I like to
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: look to fade teams that were in the Sunday night
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: game at ESPN because it's a big televised game, and
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: you know, the team has a quick turnaround time because
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: they had to play at night, where all the rest
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: of the team's basically played in the afternoon yesterday, so
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: the Mets have a shorter turnaround time. But San Diego
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: is having to travel in from Saint Louis, whereas the
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: Mets are already on the Pacific coast, so they already
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: have adjusted to the time zone. So they're just they're
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: going down from San Francisco to San Diego, so fairly
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: long trip down the coast, but still they already have
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: adjusted to the times on. The Mets are streaking right now.
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: They've won seven games in a row, and sometimes you
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: don't want to jump in front of a streak like that.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: But they did use a lot of their bullpen last night.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: It was a big game they got that win. Both
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: teams are in bad spots, man, They're both in spots
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: that I would want to look to fade those teams,
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: and unfortunately they're playing each other, which really sucks. San
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Diego has the better bullpen, and they didn't get used
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: as much last night, so San Diego does or yesterday.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: So San Diego does have a bullpen edge in this game.
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: They may very well have a starting pitching edge too.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Frankie Montas is pitching for the Mets. He just came
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: back from a long injury, so he hasn't made that
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: many starts this year. He's been mediocre four point six
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: to two ERA, one point three whip. He's been pretty
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: bad on the road, seventy r in the road, but
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: this is a pitcher friendly park here. He's actually been
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: better in his last three starts. The Mets have won
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: all of those games. Thirteen to two strikeout walk ratio
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: across those three starts still kind of ramping up. He's
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: at least got at least five innings in each of them,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't made six innings in any of them.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Three point eight sixty RA across that span. There did
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: have one start against the Yankees, which was the most
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: difficult start out of all of Meat did the least
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: well in that one, but he still did okay enough
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: that they won the game, and he got a lot
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: of run support in that one. So he is pitching Okay,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: I mean he's facing the Giants, who aren't a very
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: good offense, but they actually or excuse me, not the Giants.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: What am I saying? They just face the Giants. Sorry,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: he's facing San Diego. San Diego's offense has actually struggled
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: for quite a while now. Montas actually has done really
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: well against San Diego in eighty three at bats, twenty
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: five strikeouts, three walks, two seventeen average at five thirty
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: three oh ps, So Montas might actually do well here.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: Even though I don't like the Mets once it gets
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: later into this game, as they you know, tire out
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: and they have a kind of overworked bulpend I think
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: the advantage shifts to San Diego later in the game.
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: The Mets do have the better offense, though San Diego
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that good since their hot start to the
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: season Middal. Then they are better at home, so that's
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind as well. San Diego is
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: way better at home than they are on the road,
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: and the Mets are below five hundred on the road,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: so that might be somewhat of an advantage to San
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: Diego with the home road dichotomy there. Dylan Cees his
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: pitcher for San Diego. He hasn't been that good this
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: year man four point five to ninety RA one point
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: three whip. He was way better last year. He hasn't
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: been better at home, though again it's a pitcher friendly park.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Three point four to EIGHTYRA at home this year. He's
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: pitching somewhat better this month, I guess, or the last
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: couple of starts he's been better, allowing only two hour
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: runs across those last two both on the road, but
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: they were against Miami and Washington, so not good offenses.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: Fifteen to three strike out walk ratio over that span.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: This month, twenty seven to six strike out walk racio
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: is pretty good, so, I mean, his strikeout rate is
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: still there. His walk rate has kind of gone down
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Four point eight four ERA this month
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: is still not good. I mean, he got hammered by
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: Philly and Arizona, but those are two good offenses. So
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: he is up against another good offense here though, in
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: the Mets. So what is he gonna do against the Mets?
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: In his career, he hasn't been that good against the Mets.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: A sixty one at bats, He's given up five home
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: runs to them. Of the three of them are Lindor
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: nineteen to four strike a walk ratio is not bad
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: two seventy nine average eight ninety seven ops though, so
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: they have hit him for a bit of power. So
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if we could trust Cease either
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: here man. So I think early on in this game,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: I actually think that Montas probably has the starting pitching edge,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: even though it looks like the Mets are very public
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of tickets only fifty six percent of
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: the cash. I mean, the public, they're gonna come in
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: on the team that they saw just win the Sunday
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: night game, the team that's hot right now, winning a
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: lot of games right now, the team with the better offense,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: that's the Mets. The public will come in on them.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: First five innings, I think maybe makes sense to take
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: the Mets. I think later on in the game, though,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: the advantage does kind of shift to San Diego, even
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: though they are in that dreaded return home spot. San
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: Diego is down for minus one thirty to minus one
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: twenty six. It's not often that I'll say that I
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: think the team that'll do better in the first five
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: innings might be the team to lose. The overall game.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: But this could be a game like that, But usually
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: you want those things to kind of coincide. But that's
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: a difficult game to figure out. Pittsburgh at San Francisco.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: Of course, San Francisco had to play last night, so
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: they have a quick turnaround time. But they're not traveling,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: so at least San Francisco doesn't have to travel. Pittsburgh
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: is having to travel from home, so Pittsburgh's having to
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: cross a bunch of time zones, so they have to
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: get used to the Pacific coast. So it's not really
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: a great spot for either team either here, even though
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh starting a road trip, usually you are focused to
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: start a road trip. You know, Pittsburgh has momentum right
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: now to coming off a couple of home wins. So
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: it could be a good spot for Pittsburgh, but it
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: could also be a bad one. I mean, you have
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: to kind of balance that out, like they're a good
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: aspects to it and bad aspects to it. Mitch Keller
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Pittsburgh. He's having a pretty good season
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: three point five to three ERA, one point one to six,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: WHIP two point ninety RA on the road, he does
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: pitch well on the road this month, He's been good
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: as well, two point one ERA in four starts Pittsburgh
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: has won four of his last five starts twenty to
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: five strike a walk ratio, so he is pitching well
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: right now. Mitch Keller up against the San Francisco Giants.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: He's done pretty well as well in fifty eight at bats,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: nineteen to four, strike a walk ratio, two forty one
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: average allowed, and six fifty two ops, so Keller could
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: be in line for a decent start here. Man. Obviously,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: San Francisco has the better bullpen, but they saw him
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: more bullpen usage yesterday and they have a less rest here,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: so San Francisco's bullpen advantage isn't as much as it
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: would be otherwise the fact that their bullpen is the
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: way better bullpen. They basically had a bullpen game yesterday,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if we trust San Francisco's bullpend either.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: And we got Carson Wizn't on wizen Hunt pitching for
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: San Francisco here. He is making his major league debut,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: and I had to look up who this guy is, man,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: And you know, guys in major league debut a lot
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: of times they can fool major league hitters, man, because
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: those hitters haven't seen him before, so the hitters don't
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: know what to expect. That could be the case here now,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: wizen Hunt, his numbers are not good in Triple A though. Okay,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: so in Triple A this year his e RA I
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: think is like above four and his whip is like
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: one point three something, so that's not that good. His
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: strikeout walker ratio is okay, it was like eighty or
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: something strikeouts and like twenty something walks. That's not too bad.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: But wizen Hunt, I worry, man, I worry about those
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Triple A numbers. Man. You know your e raras in
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: the fours, your whip is one point three. That's very
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: mediocre at best, so he's not dominating in Triple A.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: Wizen Hunt is a very weird profile though. So he
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: is a lefty. Sometimes he's lefties for whatever reason don't
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: actually throw his hard and that is the case with
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: wizen Hunt. He does out of fastball that blows guys away.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: He throws the fastball in like the low nineties. But
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: I guess his primary pitch it's a fastball, but it's
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: like a moving, like two seam fastball. So his deal
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: is his movement, and I guess he has a change
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: up that's considered to be like the best change up
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: that like has ever been seen. Basically, he has a
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: change up that's rated higher than like any like I
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: looked at scouting reports on like MLB dot com. They
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: have like ratings on every pitch. They give this guy's
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: change up a seventy, which is like the highest rating
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: that I've seen for any pitchers, like any single pitch
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: for any pitcher. I think, So this guy has this
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: ridiculous change up that I guess looks the same as
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: his fastball coming out of his arm, and then it
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: has this weird sinking movement to drop out of the zone,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: and I guess it's a pitch that is in like
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: the low eighty mile an hour range and it fools hitters.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: But he doesn't really have anything besides the fastball and
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: change up, So it's almost like he's like Keith Folk
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: or something. It's almost like he should be like a reliever,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: almost because I guess he does throw a slider in
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: a curve ball as well, but I guess they're not
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: very good pitches and he has trouble controlling them so
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know what we're gonna get out of wizen
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: Hunt here, man. I mean, he does have the advantage
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: of having a really weird pitch. Arsenal and Pittsburgh is
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: a bad offense and they haven't seen him before. Both
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: these offenses are pretty bad, jay Mane, what's up? Man?
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming back. At least I got that one
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: right yesterday, that one play. Hopefully you played GINN and
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: Fantasy by the way, how older was terrible? Gin was good? Yes, sir, Fantasy.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: You know I haven't done in a while. Though I'm
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: decent at Fantasy. I think I'm better at I've been
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: doing this for over an hour now. We're on the
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: last couple of games I haven't given out. I have
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: two best bets that I haven't given out yet though,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: but I'm talking about the second and last game here.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: We're on these late night Pacific coast games here. Anyway,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: in this game, it looks like initial movement on the
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: money line was on the Giants for minus one to
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: fifteen to minus one twenty seven. They got sixty four
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on them, but seventy five percent
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: of the cash. It looks like it's coming back on Pittsburgh,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: even though on Action Network I actually saw they're like
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: indicators are actually saying San Francisco head market indicators, including
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: the sharp money move on the money line here, but
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: we can see that here anyway, according to the pregame numbers,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: though here it looks like Pittsburgh is getting the money,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: and Pregame uses like a different set of books that
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: I think actually care more to professionals. So I think
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: it's easier to see where the professional money is actually
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: coming on this site than on Action Network, which Action
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: Network brings in all the you know, public books, you know,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: the all the online books, the DraftKings or whatever is this,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think takes it as much into account as
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: far as I know. So anyway, the money might be
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: coming back on Pittsburgh here. I don't necessarily disagree with this,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: because again I think San Francisco they're at the rest
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: disadvantage here when the Pittsburgh did have to travel cross country,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: which is a concern. San Francisco's bulp and is completely
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: wiped out after yesterday, and Mitch Keller is the He's
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: at least the predictable all of the two pitchers here,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: I think, and I think we can predict that he's
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: probably gonna pitch fairly well in this game. Uh, it's
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: possible that you maybe want to look towards an under
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: in this game, maybe early on, because I really don't
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: even think you want much to do with these bullpens
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: on either side really, so you could say, maybe Kell
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: will pitch well, and maybe wizzen Hunt will fool Pittsburgh's
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: hitters enough, and they're not a good offense, so maybe
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: an under, and it is an under friendly ballpark as well,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: first five inning under might make sense in this game.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: The total has a little bit more juice now on
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: the under eight seventy percent of the tickets. It says
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash on the under. I
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: don't buy that, but maybe the money is indeed coming
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: in on the under in this one. Someone picked up Gain.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: Oh god, I hope you. I hope you got who
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: else was good yesterday? Irvin? But I didn't expect Irvin
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: to do that well, but he did. And then one
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: of your one of the other guys pitched well. I
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: forget who though you went? Oh, Hendrix pitched pretty well.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: You went under seven and a half on which game?
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: On on this Pittsburgh San Francisco game, you went under
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Yeah, I mean I would say
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit bit iffy. First five innings though,
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: if you do do that on that game, if you
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: have to go under three and a half, that's a
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: little bit iffy as well. You had Ben Brown. He
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: actually did well yesterday, didn't he? The g Men? The
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: Giants is I've never heard anybody call the San Francisco
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: Giants the g men. Actually, it seems so weird to me.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: It's only the New York Giants. I think Ben Brown
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: did do well for you yesterday though against that bad
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: White Sox lineup. Brown actually had a good start for
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: one Seattle at the A's now here this final game,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: the A's, I mean, I think they could be in
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot here. Man. They're actually returning home from
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: a long road trip too. So it's actually San Diego
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: and the A's both returning home from long road trips.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: The A's went to Cleveland, Texas and Houston, so they're
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: having a return home and they're not a good home
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: team either. The A's. They have this you know, weird
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: Triple A stadium they're playing and they don't have a
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: home advantage at all. They really seem to have a
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: home disadvantage. Actually, they play really poorly at home. They're
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: twenty and thirty one at home. Mariners actually have a
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: better offense on the road because their home stadium is
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: very pitcher friendly, but this is one of the most
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: hit or friendly parks that's out there. So I think
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: Seattle actually probably has the offensive edge here, even though
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: the A's offense isn't that bad either. But will we
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: see some scoring in this game, I don't know, Because
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: I actually like the starting pitching matchup two. Seattle definitely
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: has a bullpen edge here. The A's bullpen is horrendous,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: So overall, I do think Seattle does have the advantage
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: in this game. I think they probably have the better
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: of the two starters, too, but I think both starters
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: line up to maybe pitch okay in this game. So
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: it's a crazy game with a lot of things going
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: on here, or like generally, I would say you want
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: to fade the A's though, because they are in that
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: bad return home spot. And I do think that because
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: Seattle has the bullpen advantage here and because they play
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: better on the road and the A's don't play well
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: at home. I do think Seattle might be worth the
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: look in this game. Luis Castillo pitching for Seattle pretty
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: consistent for them three point three ERA, one point two
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: to four WHIP. He's doing worse on the road though,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: four point seven to four ROADRA, so he pitches a
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: lot better in that pitcher friendly ballpark in Seattle. He
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: is pitching really well right now this month two point
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: two eighty RA, twenty eight to four strike at walk ratio.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: Seattle had won five games in a row behind him
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: until he had a kind of bad start against Milwaukee.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: Give up a lot of hits at least, but the
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: fielding failed behind him and he couldn't get out of
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: one of those innings. And I think I actually lost
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: an under that I gave out on that game, if
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: I remember correctly. So that game not entirely his fault.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: Castillo up against the A's does have pretty good numbers.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: In a big sample size of eighty at bats. He
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: has a dominant twenty nine to two strike aut walk
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: ratio against him, a two hundred batting average allowed five
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: ninety five ops. So Castillo pitches pretty well against the
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: A's man and he's going up against J. P. Sears,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: who's having an ok season four point two nine eighty
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: one point two to five whip. He is worse at
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: home in this stadium though, he's giving up a lot
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: of home runs. Thirteen of the twenty two that he's
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: allowed this year have been in this stadium. Five point
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: six' one era at home not good. His recent form
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: isn't that bad though. He has a twenty four to
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: four strikeout walk ratio of this month, which is not bad,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: so his command has been there. He actually hasn't allowed
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of hits, but he's allowed four home runs
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: over the last three starts, so that's been again the problem,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: allowing too many home runs four point five yra this month. Overall,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: he's not pitching that badly though. Against Seattle, he actually
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: has good numbers and a huge one hundred and nine
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: at bad sample size. They only have eighteen hits off
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: him twenty six strikeout, six walks. He's selling them to
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: a ridiculous one sixty five batting average of forty eighty
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: two ops. You almost never see a sample size that
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: big where a starting pitcher has held that offense to
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: that low a batting average and ops. So Sears basically
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: dominates Seattle's offense, which is kind of insane to think about.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: This game has a lot going on. I think overall,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: I do lean to Seattle because it is the bad
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: spot for the A's. You don't have to lay a
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: price to minus one twenty on the road. If you
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: do want Seattle, I think you would have to go
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: full game on this because you want Seattle's bullpen advantage
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: to be working for you. There, the A's bullpen is terrible.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: Sixty percent of the tickets seventy eight percent of the
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: cash on the A's though I'm not sure I agree
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: with that. I could see the under in the first
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: five innings as well. I mean, of course we have
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: a high total. It's at this A's stadium. The totals
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: at ten. The juice on the under is actually become
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: a little bit less into some of the money has
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: kind of moved towards the over a little bit. But
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: I see fifty three percent of tickets on the over
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on the under. So
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: it looks like the public kind of wants the over
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: here still. They think Seattle Raleigh, all right, we're gonna
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: get some offense here Oakland or the A's their stadium,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: you know, very offensive, conducive. But I think the way
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: is to look at this game again, her first five
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: innings under. I like how both starting pitchers actually match
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: up here. That at the A's stadium might be a
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: little bit dangerous though, So I think Seattle money line
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: might be a better way to look at that game.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: Your pitchers for today are who Eflyn and who else? Well,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: I'm about to talk about e Flyn right now, man,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: because we're about to hand it. We're about to headed
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: to That was the rundown. I always forget to put
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: my graphic up on the screen here that I made
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: not that long ago. We're moving into the best bets now, man.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: Least that under that I gave out on the show
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: Hit yesterday, And I was right about one of the
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: two first five unders that I said were almost plays.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: The Pittsburgh Arizona one was good. Sorry, as Paul Skeens
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: actually went way over his strike up prop total, so
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: I apologize for that. I thought it was a little
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: bit questionable. But anyway, that game did go under in
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: the first five. The Cleveland and Royals game, I think
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: I want up pushing on the four. If you got
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: the four there e flyn Sears, Castillo, Mizerowski, Keller and
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Slade say CHACONI I mean, I don't hate any of
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: those pitchers today. Actually, they all look like they match
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: up decently in my opinion, I think. I mean, you
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: can go back and watch my show. I talked about
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: every single one of them. If you want to see
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: what I showed with all their numbers. I just look
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: at ESPN batter versus picture though you can see what
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: I thought about them. But Zach Eflin might be the
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: most questionable of these. But guess what I'm doing, man,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: I'm going the Orioles first five innings money line here.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: That's one of my two plays here. Man, the Orioles.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: I think they have some advantages in this game, man.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: I mean they're staying at home. One thing is Toronto's
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: been so hot recently, and I don't think they're as
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: good as their ridiculous record looks. Toronto. They're not quite
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: as good on the road. They're twenty six and twenty
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: six on the road. Baltimore is only twenty four and
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: twenty six at home. So the Jay's being on the
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: road here. The team's home road records are not that different.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: The fact that we get this game at Baltimore here,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: So that's where I'm kind of starting here. So I
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: think this line is gonna look a little bit misleading. Man.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: When the public looks at this, they know how hot
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: Toronto's and they know what Toronto's done recently against the Yankees
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: and whatever, But it looks like Toronto is a public
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: road underdog almost at this point, with eighty three percent
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: of the tickets only sixty one percent of the catch.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: So the public is pouring in on Toronto looking like,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: oh my god, how do I get such a cheap price?
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: And you're gonna look and see Bassett has a way
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: better er than e Flyn. It looks so easy to
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: take Toronto. But the money line has already flipped Baltimore
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: from plus one oh four to minus one oh eight.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: So this is reverse line movement coming in against the
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: public side of Toronto here. So I think there is
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: actual money coming into Baltimore, and I actually agree with it.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, Toronto is having to travel, so they're coming
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: up a huge couple series. Man. They just played Giants
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: Yankees Detroit. Those are huge series against teams with good records,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: and they just finally lost that win streak that they had.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: They'd won four in a row against the Yankees in Detroit,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: finally lost. They won both of those series still, but
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: when a team loses a win streak like that, a
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: lot of times it'll hang them over into the next game.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a spot for Toronto for that reason.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: I think they might not pay full attention to Baltimore
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: here because it is the team with the best record
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: in the AL East against the team of the worst
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: record in the AL eas So it's possible Toronto has
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: their foot off the gas pedal a little bit here,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: so I don't like that either. Toronto does have the
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, though they didn't use that much of their
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday, so that's why I'm going first five here,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: even though I would still agree if you went Baltimore
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: full game, I'm not gonna disagree with that. I think
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: the situation sets up such that it makes sense. But
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bigger advantage, and you get almost
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: the same price on Baltimore in the first five innings.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit cheaper, like you can
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: find it around minus one oh four on the full game.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: But I'll take Baltimore's bullpen out of the equation because
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is way worse. I mean, I do have
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: the pitching stats up here. Baltimore twenty fifth in bullpen
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: whip bullpenny ray is pretty bad as well. Toronto fourth
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: in bullpen whip, although their bullpenny ray is actually a
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: little bit worse than that too, but Toronto still has
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: a significant bullpen edge, So we'll take that out and
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: I will look at the starting pitching matchup, and I
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: think this matchup is not anywhere near his lopside. As
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: it looks on the surface, it looks like it's way
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: lopsided towards Bassett, but I'm not buying it. Bassett, Yeah,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: three point eight eighty ra really good this year, eleven
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: to four record. I mean, his offense has helped him out.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: His one point three whip though that's kind of high.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: It's telling you that something is going on here man
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: a Bassett. I mean, look at his career stats, man,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's never been quite this good. I mean
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: his numbers last year as numbers actually were significantly worse
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: than that. It looked like he was kind of falling
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: completely off the rails, although he was pretty good I
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: guess for a while up until last year, which was
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: only his second year with Toronto, So I don't know,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: you know, we should expect Bassett might regress a little
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: bit back towards that. Yeah, he's pitched well recently twenty
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: four to four strike a walk ratio. This month, Toronto
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: has won four of his five starts, two of them
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees, although those were actually the starts where
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: he gave up the most runs. He gave up four
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: home runs in those two starts, and kind of, I
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: don't know, in a way, he got a little bit
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: lucky because he did walk three guys in one. He
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: a lot eleven hits across those two, only allowed six
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: runs total, but it could have been worse for him
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: in those And then he did well against White Sox
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, and he had kind of a tune up.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't going into the All Star break to kind
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: of help him remain on schedule there, which I actually
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: liked that Toronto did that. I already pitched one inning
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen against the A's. But yeah, overall,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: twenty four to four strike a walk ratio this month
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: two point three to ninety RA. Yeah, all that is good.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: He's actually in good form right now. I get that
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: he hasn't walked anybody in his last two starts or
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: in that relief appearance against the A's. Against Baltimore, though,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: surprisingly because Baltimore's offense isn't that good, Toronto does have
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: the better offense. But again, I think Toronto's gonna regress
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Man. I don't think Toronto is as
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: good as the record looks. I don't think they're better
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: than the Yankees. Basketting against Baltimore surprisingly not good. Ninety
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: seven a bad. They have a big sample size against him.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: They have a two to ninety nine batting average against
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: him eight fifty five ops. So the twenty six to
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk ratio is good. But Baltimore does
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: hit him pretty well, man, Bassett. I mean the way
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: that he pitches. Uh, he can fool some batters and
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: not others because he doesn't throw hard. He throws a
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: lot of different like moving fastballs, but he throws in
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: the low nineties. And the way that he does it
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: is he takes kind of like one pitch and he
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: puts different movement on it. So he has like several
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: different fastballs basically, and that's basically what he does. But
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: some offenses can hit him, and I think that this
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: is not the mismatch that it looks like here. Man.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: And by the way, if this game is tied through
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: five innings and we got the money line here, then
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: it'll be a push. So that's okay too. Zach Efflyn,
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: as we said, pitching for Baltimore, his numbers aren't good,
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: although his whip isn't that much worse than Bassetts five
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: point seven to eighty or one point three seven whip.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: I think the whip is a better indicator than the era. Man. Yeah,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: he's been bad both home and away, but he's been
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: on the injured list, man, so he's coming back from injury,
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: and he is a veteran. And a lot of times
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: when a veteran comes back from injury, yeah, sometimes they
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: have to work their way back in. But when it's
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: a veteran like that and they're used to that type
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: of thing, I actually think that they've become undervalued coming
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: back from injury, and they get excited they want to
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: be back out there. I think he is gonna be
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: excited they get to face, you know, the team that's
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: winning their division right now. I think he's gonna come
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: out and want to play with some intensity here. Baltimore
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: did lose his last four starts before he went on
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: the injury list. He did have a couple of real
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: bad starts there, but his last start wasn't that bad
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland, who is not a very good offense against. Yeah,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: Toronto is a better offense than that, I said Baltimore,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: I met Toronto. Toronto is not a you know, they're
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: definitely a better offense than Cleveland. But Efflyn, if you
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: look at his numbers against Toronto in his career, he
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: does actually have good numbers against him, which is why
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: I'm doing this. I think the matchup edge. Looking at
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: the matchup numbers, it is not the mismatch that you
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: would think it is towards Bassett, and it might actually
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: favor Eflyn. Here big sample size eighty four, he has
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: a fifteen to one strike out walk ratio against him.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: E Flyn usually does have good command, but his problem
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: usually is he allows too much hard hitting. But really,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: nobody really on the Jays has really done that much
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: damage against him except Vlad Guerrero seven for twenty one
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: with two one runs at a walk. And that's one guy.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: If you can pitch around Vlad Guerrero, the rest of
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: these guys haven't done that much damage against him. He's
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: telling the team to a two twenty six average six
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: forty ops. So I actually kind of like Eflyn in
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: this game, and I like the fate of the public
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: here man. So I'm gonna go Baltimore first five innings
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: in that game. If you know me, if you watch
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: my show, I am a contrarian man. I go with
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of contrarian plays. And that's where we're going
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: with that one Evelyn series, Castillo, ms Keller and Slade. Yeah,
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: I already read that. Yeah that's right, I do. Yeah,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: I like e Flyn today. Yeah, Bassett on the road,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: well yeah, I mean what did I What did I
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: say his numbers were on the road you went over
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: in this game? Yeah, I mean I don't know about
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: the total. I don't have a good read on the
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: total in this game. It's Westburg Bobblehead Night, all right.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: So that means that that Baltimore has like a promotion
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: where they're gonna get more asses in the seats here.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: I mean that'd be good on a Monday night. Man,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: Let's get let's get a crowd there. The total is
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: high in this game at nine and a half, which
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: does indicate that the oddsmakers are telling you they think
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: it will be a high scoring game. I do see
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: money coming towards the under though, fifty tickets on the
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: over sixty percent of the cash of the under, but
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: again I don't have a good read on that. I
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: think the market read is definitely towards towards the Oriole
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: side here. Bassett, I forgot to mention this. Bassett is
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: way worse on the road. His erased three runs higher
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: on the road. I think I forgot to mention that
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: five point six six ERA on the road, whereas Efflyn
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: is eras bad both home and away, so he doesn't
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: have significant splits. But Bassett is way worse on the road.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: So we have that split working for us too in
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: this game. So Baltimore is one play, and then you
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: already know what my other play is. Man, it is
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: indeed the under in Cubs Milwaukee, where I think that
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: the public's gonna come in and look at this Cubs
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee man two teams that are known for their hitting.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Even though it is miss starting for around Milwaukee here public,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's still gonna look at this and want
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: to go over on this game. Although it does look
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: like the ticket percentages on the under to the two
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: and of eighty nine percent, which does worry me a
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: little bit, but ninety six percent of the cash on
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: the under. The total slightly ticked up from seven a
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: half juice to the over to eight juice to the under.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Not really a significant move, though. I could see going
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: under first five innings because if you want to take
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: the bullpens out of the equation, because we saw some
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: bulpen usage yesterday, including Milwaukee did use their closer yesterday
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: and Miguel, So if you did want to go first
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: five inning under, I wouldn't hate that either. But I
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: saw mostly three and a half's out there, and you
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: know me, I don't like the three and a half
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: as much, so I decided to go full game and
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: suck it up. And when I do that usually what
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: I'm saying is I think the starters are gonna get
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: us maybe through like the sixth inning, hopefully in this game,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: on both sides of this, and then we don't really
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: need the bullpen to pitch as much in this game
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: with two starters that are this good, A lot of
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: times I'll do that and I'll just fuck it and
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: go full game under on this. Both both teams bullpends
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: are not that bad, although yes, I know both teams
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: offense is are pretty good. But Milwaukee's offense is worse
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: at home, and I believe the Cubs offense isn't as
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: good on the road either. I would have to check that,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: but I think that is the case. So I think
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: the offensive splits home and away are working for us
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: for the under here, I saw on Action Network like
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of the money was coming in on the under,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: and again somebody mentioned it earlier. This looks like the
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: best pitching matchup of the day man and people might
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: not realize that it might fly under the radar because
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: Matthew Boyd basically doesn't get any of the accolades. But
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: his numbers this year insane two point two ERA, one
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: point zero one whip really really good, slightly worse on
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: the road two point four five ERA, but I'm not
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: too concerned about that. The way he's been pitching this
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: month is absurd. He has a zero point six seventy
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: RRA this month. He's allowed zero earned runs in four
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: of his last five outings. The Cubs have won all
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: of those, which you know, does make sense. The won
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: the one where he gave up two runs as well.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: He has not allowed more than two arn runs going
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: all the way back to late May, and that was
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: the only time all season that he allowed more than
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: three earned runs in any starts. He's been really consistent
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: and Milwaukee, I believe, hasn't even faced him this year,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: so that might be an extra edge for the Cubs
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: because Milwaukee hasn't faced him, and Boyd, I don't even
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: think he was on the Cubs until this year. Yeah,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: he was on Cleveland last year and only made eight starts,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: so Boyd hasn't really been around for a while. It's
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: crazy that he's doing this too, because his career numbers
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: would indicate that he cannot be doing this at the
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: age of thirty four, but he is. I don't know how,
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: but that is what's going on. He actually was good
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: for Cleveland last year too, but Milwaukee hasn't seen him
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: at any point recently, and his numbers against Milwaukee are
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: dominant in thirty three at bats. I know it's a
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: small sample size, but he has eleven strikeouts against them,
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: no walks. Yes, Contreras does have a home run Offen,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: but other than that, he's really held them down to
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: a one eighty two batting average of four to eighty
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: five ohps. That's dominant numbers from Matthew Boyd here, and
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: he's pitching dominantly right now as well. With what was
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: this strikeout walk ratio this month twenty six to three. Yeah,
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: I mean he's absolutely dominating man and then miss Zierowski
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: on the other side, the miz I am the mizuh
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Brewers here. I mean he's a
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: rookie and he's already you know, he's already getting the hype.
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: Two point four five RRA, point nine two whip. I
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: know he's hyper. I think this total is a reasonable
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: total to go under here, but yeah, he's been excellent.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: Point nine two whip. Anything below one is insane. Two
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: point four five VRA. He's been insane at home with
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: a point five six ERA at home in more innings pitch.
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: They did limit him a little bit around the All
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: Star break. Well, I guess actually he got taken out
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: of the game against Mets, because that was like his
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: one bad start. He got shelled by the Mets, who
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: are a good offense. But then he bounced back and
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: had a dominant start against the Dodgers going into the
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: All Star breaks, even though there was the All Star
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: kind of distraction there. I think he wasn't named to
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: the All Star team until right before the game, so
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: I think he was without that distraction against the Dodgers.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: He came out of the All Star breaking. I think
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: they kind of just limited him just because they kind
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: of wanted to ramp him up again. They don't want
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: to burn him out. But he went three and two
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: thirds against Seattle, didn't allow any runs, seven strikeouts, one walk.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: So he's still absolutely dominating as far as his strikeouts
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: are concerned. His forty strikeouts so far in twenty nine
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: to third and he's pitched fifteen hits allowed. He's not
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: allowed a lot of hits. Twelve walks is a little
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: bit high, but his walk rate has gotten better recently.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: He's only walked too or yeah, two over those last
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: two starts in nine to two thirds, and so that's
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit lower and compared to nineteen strikeouts in
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: that span twenty one to five strike out walker right
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: here this month, and he has ERA a little bit
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: higher this month four point zero five, all because of
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: that one start against the Mets. But I think he's
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: gonna do well here the Cubs, yes, they have a
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: good offense, but if he can do well against the Dodgers, man,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: And I believe that was on the road too. I
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: know it was at home. Never mind, because I was
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: gonna say the Dodgers do really well at their home stadium.
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: That was in Milwaukee. But even so, this is also
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: at home for miss here. And yes, the Cubs are
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: a good offense. But miss Yarowski is a legit talent.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: He's probably the best out of the rookie pitchers here. Man,
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: he can really really fool major league hitters. He throws
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: one hundred miles an hour. Maybe he might be the
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: fastest throwing starter in all of baseball here, So he
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: can definitely get it done against any lineup that's never
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: seen him before. So I'm gonna go under in this game,
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: and I'll suck it up and include the bullpens. I mean,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: if you want to go under in the first five
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: I would try to find a four, even though you
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: probably have to go about minus one twenty to get
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: it under four with these starting pitchers, because everybody knows
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: how good the starting pitchers are. So I actually think
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: you get a little bit of value maybe in going
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: the full game and just sucking it up with the
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: bullpends and hoping that the starters get you a little
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: bit deeper into this game and we go under the
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: full game total there. So that's what I'm going with there. Yeah,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: miss very good at home, and that's what we get here.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: Oh you're on X oh all right, Oh thank you sir,
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: you're you're sharing my stream. Thank you man, Thanks for
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: coming back, man, thanks for being a return visitor. Sometimes.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: I'm I've become kind of a dick on here sometimes,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: but it's mostly because I get these like trolls on
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: Twitter that jump into my comments here and start saying
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: a bunch of bullshit. But I went after one guy
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: who wasn't actually wasn't actually trying to come after me though,
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: So I have a quick trigger finger, man, So I
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: apologize for all that. But that's gonna do it for
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: the show today, man. So those are the two plays
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles money line, first five innings. Definitely going against
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: the public with that one, and then under in the
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: cubs in Milwaukee. That's gonna do it. Hope you guys
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: enjoyed the show today. Thanks for hanging out man. Learn
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: to Toad is where I'm at on Twitter and on
• 1:30:05
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• 1:30:08
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• 1:30:11
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• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: t o R here on YouTube where most of you
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: guys are like subscribe, watch, you know. Thank you guys
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: for all that you know, interact, comment, share it around,
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: and you can help me out by listening to me
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: on audio as well and rating the show on audio,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: especially on Spotify and Apple. So I am out there
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: as well. And I have covered in Uke, which is
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: my ukulele cover project that's on YouTube. I'm trying to
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: ramp up the YouTube on that because I've been mostly
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: just posting those things on Twitter for years. I've had
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: the YouTube for years as well, but I haven't really
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: put much effort into it. So now I'm double posting everywhere.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: And I do have a Patreon if you want to
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: help me out. Patreon dot com, slash learn to toad
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: and you can get bonus uke content. At the highest level.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: You can request stuff and I'll prioritize the requests and
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: you get a Spotify feed at the mid tier level
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: with all the audio of the YUK covers that I
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: put up, although I think the video is actually better
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: than the audio, just because I look, you know, kind
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: of retired and whatever, and it's probably funnier, and I
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: think that's it. I do still have the giftsend go
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: out there, which is at give sendo dot com slash
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: Tower gang Tote, I think, because that's how long ago
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: I created it to help me out with getting canceled
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: over my Kanye West cover I'm getting in losing my job.
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: But that got a little bit more traction because and
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: Tunes thanks to that guy actually shared it out there,
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: shared my story at least or shared my video, I think.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: So I posted under that as well. I got a
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: little bit more of donations from that, So you can
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: do that. You can help me out, you know through
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: the the Twitter, you know, tipping and whatever as well,
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: because Twitter denied me subscriptions because I'm too aggressive on
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: Twitter or something. So that's great, but that's gonna do
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: him in Thanks for hanging out everybody. Thank you sir.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: You're gonna be back again. Oh, thank you. Yeah, I
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: mean obviously you can watch all the show. I mean,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: it'll remain up on YouTube, and then I am gonna
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: get it up on the audio platforms right when I'm
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: done here. Thank you, everybody, Jamin and whoever else was
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: in here today, Scott Andrew, zach Arcade. Thanks to all
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: you guys. Let's have a good Monday. Kick off the
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: week on the right foot here, get back on track. Peace, everybody,