Latest / Sharp China Podcast / Sharp China: CEWC and Bleak Economic Data; PLA Exercises Around Taiwan; New Reporting on Chip Controls; Trump’s Standing Invitation to Xi

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Sharp China: CEWC and Bleak Economic Data; PLA Exercises Around Taiwan; New Reporting on Chip Controls; Trump’s Standing Invitation to Xi · Sharp China Podcast

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_02: Hello and welcome to Sharp China.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_02: I'm Andrew Sharp and you are listening to a free preview of today's episode.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_02: Well,
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_02: speaking of Trump and speaking of his relationship with Xi,
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_02: I can now shift to the Trump section of the podcast.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_02: This is becoming a weekly tradition.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: We can close with whatever the hell is happening with President Trump.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: I got to play a clip of Trump discussing his invitation to Xi Jinping to attend his
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: inauguration on January 20th.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_02: Here we go.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: Are you disappointed that China Xi won't be at the inauguration?
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know that he won't be at the inauguration.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I haven't really spoken to him about it.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know that, actually.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: I would say that if he'd like to come, I'd love to have him.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: But there's been nothing much discussed.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: I have had discussions with him, letters, et cetera, et cetera, at a very high level.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we had a very good relationship until COVID.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: It didn't end the relationship, but it was a bridge too far for me.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: But if he'd like to come, I'd certainly be.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: Just so you understand, he hasn't said one way or the other.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Because a lot of people say, he won't come, he will come.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: People think he will come, he won't come.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: It's something we barely discussed just about didn't discuss but I have had
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: Especially through letters some very good conversations You know because China and
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: the United States can together solve all of the problems of the world
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: if you think about it.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: So it's very important.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, he was a friend of mine.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he was here for a long time, right in that spot, except sitting in a very comfortable chair.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: He wasn't standing like you are.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: But we spent hours and hours talking.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, he's an amazing guy.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: The press hates when I say that, but he's an amazing person.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_02: All right, so there we go.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_02: What do you make of Trump's posture with Xi there?
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: He's an amazing guy.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: They've had letters and letters, and he may or may not attend the inauguration.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_02: I would be, frankly, amazed if he did show up in D.C.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: on January 20th.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, I...
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_03: I'd already heard that they're not and they're going to send some, but they will send some a senior.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_03: But Trump said they haven't either way.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_03: So it is interesting.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_03: It was an interesting phrase around the communications.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_03: It sounds like it's more letters than the actual conversation between Trump and Xi himself.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_03: And maybe there have been conversations by some of the folks around him.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_03: The language that China and the United States can together solve all the problems
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_03: in the world is very much fits with how the Chinese talk about the relationship.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_03: I was going to say, it's sort of an echo of the PRC mess.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_03: So if you're in China,
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_03: again,
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_03: and I asked yesterday in the newsletter is like,
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_03: this PRC side,
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_03: if they hear these comments,
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_03: are they going to think Trump is open to some sort of a this mooted idea years ago
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_03: of a G2 like grand bargain between the US and China?
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_03: Or is he just speaking off the cuff?
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: he's definitely speaking off the cuff,
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_02: talking about what a comfortable chair she had at Mar-a-Lago.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_03: If you look at some of the folks from Silicon Valley who are going in and who are
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_03: working on national security-related issues,
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_03: their focus,
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_03: especially the folks who have investments in the Silicon Valley companies trying to
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_03: do the defense industrial base and military industrial companies,
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_03: it's all about China.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_03: It's all about re-industrialization of the U.S.,
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_03: ending reliance on China for critical components and critical minerals.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_03: And, you know, that very much runs in the face of the idea of some sort of a broader grand bargain.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_03: And so it's just too, it's just too early to tell what's going to happen.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_03: And again,
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_03: it's the same thing with TikTok,
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_03: because of course,
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_03: yesterday,
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_03: he also met with the TikTok CEO who showed up,
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_03: he made the,
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_03: shows that you made his pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, he also gave a meandering 90 second answer at that same press conference talking about TikTok.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_02: He was asked about what he plans to do in response to the TikTok legislation and.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_02: He talked about how much he loved TikTok and how the Republican Party saw the
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: greatest gains among youth voters because of TikTok.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_02: So it was a real mixed bag.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, they also they asked him about preemptive strikes on Iran and Trump had a great response.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_02: I thought that was a good answer.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_02: Why would I tell you?
• 4:46
  Yeah.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_02: I thought that was a refreshing departure from the Biden administration's approach
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_02: to conducting foreign policy via press conference.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_02: So like I said, mixed bag across the board.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_02: I have no idea what to make of his posture with Xi.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I kind of enjoy that China probably also has no idea what to make of any of it.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_03: And so again,
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_03: we're really going to have to wait until he's president and see all the positions
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_03: he fills.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_03: And again, he likes having people fight under him.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_03: And I spoke to someone last week who does China stuff and briefed him and the team
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_03: many times during Trump won.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_03: And just said it's he likes the he likes the infighting.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_03: He wants them to argue in front of each other.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_03: And then he makes the decision.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_03: And so but that makes it really hard to sort of come up with,
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_03: oh,
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_03: this is all that,
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_03: Trump's going to do X,
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_03: Y and Z around China because it isn't I don't think it's a done deal yet.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_03: Right.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_02: Well, and he also likes having world leaders off balance and unsure of what the direction would be.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_03: Including the governor of the great state of Canada, we've learned.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_03: That's right.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: The great state of Canada.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_03: That's one area where there should be a higher level of confidence that there'll be
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_03: some pretty significant tariffs quickly.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_03: But higher level of confidence does not mean 100% certainty.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_02: And even with the inauguration play here, you could spin it a number of different directions.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_02: On one hand, China, again, just executed an unbelievably aggressive hack on U.S.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_02: telecommunications firms.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_02: So then turning around and hosting Xi at inauguration is not ideal.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_02: But it also could be sort of a transparent bear hug play from Trump.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, I think there's no downside for Trump.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_03: I think it's actually pretty smart because he looks magnanimous.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_03: He invited Xi.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_03: If Xi comes, you know, and which I don't think he will.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_03: Again,
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_03: I've heard he not,
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_03: but even whether or not what I heard is true,
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_03: it makes him look a bit,
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_03: it's not about Xi.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_03: It's about Trump.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_03: And he won't get much time with Trump because it's, you know, he's got to take the inauguration.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_03: And it's just, it's a strange thing.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_03: uh visit for the leader of china and exactly but then he says then he says no and
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_03: then trump's like well i invited him you know i made an offer so now it puts
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_03: chinese side a little bit on the back foot like well how are they going to
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_03: reciprocate because trump was being really magnanimous that's what i enjoy about it
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_03: it does put the prc i mean i i i'd say it's a it's a it's a smart play
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we will see.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_02: I don't expect to see she in D.C.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_02: in a couple of weeks here, but who knows?
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_02: So you did mention TikTok shochu at Mar-a-Lago on Monday.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_02: Also on Monday, TikTok appealed the D.C.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_02: Circuit's denial of its motion for a temporary injunction and is now moving the Supreme Court.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_02: to temporarily enjoin enforcement of the TikTok law until it hears an appeal of the
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_02: DC circuit that upheld that same law.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_02: TikTok is requesting a judgment on the injunction by January 6th,
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_02: telling the court that if the court won't enjoin the law,
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_02: TikTok needs time to,
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_02: quote,
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_02: coordinate with their service providers to perform the complex task of shutting
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_02: down the TikTok platform only in the United States.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_02: And just so people know, in order to secure a temporary injunction, TikTok has to demonstrate
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't love TikTok's chances of success on those fronts.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_02: They will suffer irreparable harm,
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_02: but I don't think that they can establish in their motion that their appeal is
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_02: likely to succeed on the merits because the D.C.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_02: Circuit was pretty comprehensive in its rejection of TikTok's arguments.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_02: Do you have any thoughts on where things stand right now?
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_03: If the Supreme Court doesn't rule,
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_03: either give them the injunction,
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_03: doesn't rule in TikTok's favor,
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_03: then their last hope is that they can convince the Biden administration to grant
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_03: the one-time 90-day extension.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: Mm-hmm.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_03: and punt it into the Trump administration.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_03: And then they'll have more ability to work around,
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_03: work within,
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_03: speaking of surface area,
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_03: work around that to try and get a more favorable outcome.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_03: I'm not sure why the Biden administration would do that.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_03: Right.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_03: Other than to say that TikTok has a, you know, there's tens of billions of dollars a stake.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_03: TikTok and some of those investors effectively have bottomless lobbying budgets.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_03: And they're pretty much in a name your price kind of situations.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I mean, they've had a lot of time to negotiate a potential divestiture, and it's not clear.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_02: Honestly, we just don't know whether any of those talks have played out quietly behind the scenes.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_02: There certainly haven't been any rumors to that effect over the last nine months.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_03: And they really are running out of time.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_03: And what's interesting, too, and I had forgotten, is that they actually...
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_03: If the law goes into effect, they actually have to allow users to export all their data.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_03: again,
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_03: it's probably part of that sort of complex process they talk about for the reasons
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_03: why they need to know by January 6th.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_02: yeah no and i mean it will be a seismic disruption to the online economy like the
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_02: you and i don't use tiktok like i said i signed up and haven't opened the app in
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_02: years not because of any security concerns just because i'm a millennial and it's
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: always been kind of this foreign world to me i've never really adopted tiktok uh
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_02: But a lot of people do.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_02: And there's like this elaborate infrastructure that could be unwound in a matter of weeks here.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_03: And so and there's still a lot of I think a lot of people don't realize what might happen.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_03: And aren't at all...
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_03: I would have thought at this point more people...
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_03: I think some of the more high-earning creators are starting to hedge out onto other
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_03: platforms like Instagram or YouTube.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_03: One of the other questions, of course, is going to be, so what advertisers do?
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_03: Do they commit to budgets on TikTok now into January?
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_03: Do they wait until they hear from the Supreme Court?
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_02: I can't imagine they are in a hurry to commit to 2025 TikTok budgets...
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_03: Right.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_03: And so, and so again, it just, it becomes corrosive on, on the business.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_03: And so if this ban goes into effect on January 19th,
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_03: the process for the Trump to undo it,
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_03: it's not,
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_03: I think that,
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_03: I think the law says there has to be like an interagency process for the president
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_03: to decide basically to certify that it can continue.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_03: And so it's not like he could just come in at 12.01 PM on January 20th and sign
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_03: something and saying,
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_03: TikTok's fine.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_02: No, exactly.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_02: And I would be I'm not going to be stunned,
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_02: but I would be surprised if the Supreme Court takes this case up at all.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_02: It involves complex constitutional questions about whether TikTok's algorithm constitutes speech.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_02: And therefore, a ban implicates First Amendment questions.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't know if the court is ready to address the algorithm question at all,
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_02: because it would have implications for Section 230 policy,
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_02: which impacts the tech ecosystem more broadly.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_02: And I also don't think they would want to address it in this case where the
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_02: the net result would still probably be deference to congressional judgment on the
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_02: national security threat question.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_02: And they would probably still uphold the law as it's written.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_02: TikTok's argument on the injunction is interesting because the idea that the
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_02: interests of the government wouldn't be burdened because TikTok is not an imminent
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: threat
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: one of the arguments they raised is,
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_02: look,
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_02: both presidential campaigns were on TikTok throughout the last year.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_02: And that's a fair argument to make.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_03: That's not an unreasonable argument.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_02: it is contradicted by the record in Congress where both the House and Senate
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_02: considered this legislation and declared that TikTok is an imminent threat to
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_02: national security.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_02: So that would be their problem in court.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_02: but rhetorically a compelling argument to make.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: And that is the end of the free preview.
• 13:44
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• 13:48
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• 13:50
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• 13:56
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• 14:02
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• 14:06
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• 14:07
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• 14:10
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• 14:12
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