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Reviving Immigration Is Key To U.S. Turnaround: Kotok · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. All right, we've got some
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: big round numbers out there. Of course, DAL thirty thousand,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: NASDAC twelve thousand, that's just extraordinary. They're big numbers. What
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  Speaker 1: do they mean? Let's try to put some of that
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  Speaker 1: into context. Nobody better to do that with. Then, David
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Ko Talk, Chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: They have over three billion dollars in assets under management,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: located in beautiful Sarasota, Florida. David, thanks much for joining
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: us again. Okay, some big round numbers. A lot of
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: people say, I don't worry about it, They're just numbers,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: but boy, what do you make of them? Well, it's extraordinary, Paul,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: thank you very much for having me on. Um. You know,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I thought that to the book DAL thirty thousand when
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: it was written and we were all a few weeks
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: younger then, and and people thought it was a statement
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  Speaker 1: of madness at the time. Look where we are, so
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: it's a streny. The markets, as we see it, are
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: looking beyond next spring. Um, it's the classics six or
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: nine months uhum forward looking post vaccine recovery. And you
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: see some forecasts of the rory twenties. I read a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: piece I hadyard Any about that he's using that mantra.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: So maybe we have the explosion of spending of what
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: has been a year of accumulated savings um in this
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: release of cabin fever. After we inoculate people and after
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: we overcome what is a terrible shock. Right now, markets
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: are looking beyond the shock. Those of us who are
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: living day to day lives are still living with the shock.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: And unfortunately a lot of folks are letting their guard
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  Speaker 1: down and they're getting sick, and when they do so,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: it's a tragedy. With healthcare workers, nurses. I saw a
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: note Cleveland clinic as a thousand staff furloughed, not furload,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: but on medical leave because they're sick. So we're we're
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: in the midst of the forest fire right now. And
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: that's a sad tragedy for America and the world. Yeah, exactly, David.
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  Speaker 1: Are we going to see something catlest some catalysts arrive
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  Speaker 1: that sort of brings this market back to reality or
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: is it just assuming that Joe Biden takes office and
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: that you know, there's stimulus, that all those millions of
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: people don't get a picked in January, that the unemployment
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: it starts coming down quickly next year, and that you know,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: by the end of next year all as well in
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  Speaker 1: the world again. Well, I don't know they'll all be
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  Speaker 1: well in the world again, Vanny, but we certainly see
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: markets looking to Biden calm, less disruption, more season professional
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: government governance, and finally we are going to have a
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: transition and all of this disruption of our electoral process
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: looks like it's going to come to an end. And
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I think markets are celebrating the lack of disruption and
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: chaos that we have seen. So it's a relief on
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  Speaker 1: top of what would be a v shape recovery outlook
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: for next year and the year after. That's how it
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: looks to me and David. It also is it relates
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  Speaker 1: to your outlook, or it appears that we have a
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: very clear rotation trade. You know, out of some of
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: those growthy names that have been really the stalwarts for
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: this equity market really since financial crisis, whether it's an
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Apple or an Amazon, into more cyclical type of groups,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: whether it's banks or even even energy has had a
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: great month. Um. Do you believe that's the play right here?
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  Speaker 1: And how long you think it could last? Well are
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: two questions. So we use a little joke in the company.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: We say, Fang went to the dentist, and now we're
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: going to have a broadening market. And I guess there's
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  Speaker 1: something to that. We see it in the small caps
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  Speaker 1: and we see it in the Russell two thousand um
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: in our shop. We have uh good positions in the
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  Speaker 1: Russell two thousand in through the et F structure and
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: in mid caps and small caps. So we've been enjoying
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the rally and we continue to do so. We we
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: took advantage j of the sell off a few weeks ago,
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  Speaker 1: and we have been nearly fully invested to this surge.
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  Speaker 1: I admit that this is very fast, very robust, and
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: every day we get up and look at it and
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: we're terrified, and we don't sell anything in the next day.
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  Speaker 1: We say we're glad we waited. That's uh, that's where
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: we are today in Thanksgiving week. Will you continue to
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: stay in this market as that out help David Well,
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  Speaker 1: I I will for at least the next seven minutes, Vanny.
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  Speaker 1: But but after that, I'm not sure. Yeah, I think so,
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  Speaker 1: because when you put the robust recovery and the productivity
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  Speaker 1: games on top of this v shaped powerful uh fiscal stimulus,
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: monetary stimulus you projected into two, you get an upward
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  Speaker 1: trajectory in earnings and it can be supplies in surprisingly robust.
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  Speaker 1: And I think there's a second kicker here, and that
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  Speaker 1: is the Biden administration lifts the lid on DOCTA. That's
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  Speaker 1: nine thou people who begin to flourish instead of hide
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: behind the front door because they make it decordered. We
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: change the immigration structure, and so we include, we increase
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: the workforce, the labor force by allowing it to flourish.
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  Speaker 1: We bring back into the United States people. We need nurses.
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  Speaker 1: There's a there's a demand for million nursing care people.
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  Speaker 1: They would like to come to American work. I think
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: they would like to still come to America. They used
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: to want to do that. So If you add productivity games,
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  Speaker 1: which we're getting in huge amounts, to increase in working population,
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  Speaker 1: you accelerate the growth rate. I think we could hit
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: growth rates above three percent, maybe even to four percent
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  Speaker 1: for a couple of years in g d P. If
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  Speaker 1: we get population and productivity, and we release the economy
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  Speaker 1: from chaos and from COVID, it could be an extraordinary
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  Speaker 1: couple of years. And the markets are saying that. Markets
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  Speaker 1: are saying those companies are going to reflect that in
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: their earnings. And I believe that's not only possible, but
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  Speaker 1: I think it's becoming more and more likely as efficacious
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  Speaker 1: vaccines get into distribution. That's remarkable science being applied. Remarkable. David,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: how many milestones have we seen together in this market?
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  Speaker 1: There's not the reely rhetorical question because there's no time
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  Speaker 1: to answer it. But I can tell a listener is
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: that me and David and Paul have seen very, very
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: many milestones. That's David Kotalk, their chairman and chief investment
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: officer at Cumberland Advisors, joining us from Sarazota, Florida. Well,
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  Speaker 1: we're certainly on a doll thirty thousand. Watch your three
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: or seventy points here nine thousand, nine sixty two. Clearly
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  Speaker 1: equity investors are certainly willing to look past the dire
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  Speaker 1: pandemic numbers were experiencing right now, look to the other
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  Speaker 1: side of this in a world with a multiple vaccine.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: To get a sense of kind of where we should
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  Speaker 1: be looking in the market, we welcome Nicholas Co, founder
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  Speaker 1: of Data Trek Research based in New York City. Nick,
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  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us again here. What do
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: you make of this equity market and are you surprised
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  Speaker 1: at all about the ability of this market to really
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: look well towards the other side of this pandemic. You're right,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: it is absolutely impressive. I'm not all that surprised, only
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: because you know, as a cyclicals oriented analysts, this very
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  Speaker 1: much fits the playbook of every recovery back to when
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I started looking at cycles in the early nineties covering
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the auto industry. So it's certainly a compressed version of
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: thout cyclical recoveries, but it does fit the basic paradigm
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  Speaker 1: as much as any other one does. Small cap rallying industrials, rallying, financial's,
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  Speaker 1: rallying tech under performing, you know, against the backdrop of recovery.
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  Speaker 1: It makes all makes sense, What, then, Nick, should we
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  Speaker 1: expect next Well, I mean, obviously we've got a real
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  Speaker 1: head of steam on this market, and so you know,
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  Speaker 1: the next couple of particularly days is going to be
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  Speaker 1: a further continuation of the rally, particularly into light volume.
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  Speaker 1: But I do think there's going to have to be
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  Speaker 1: some kinds of reset back to some you know, more
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  Speaker 1: real form of reality, if you will, as we get
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  Speaker 1: into December and into the first part of next year.
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  Speaker 1: Because cyclical rallies always kind of blast off on hope,
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  Speaker 1: and that's what we're seeing right now. Then there's a
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  Speaker 1: real reality check when you start to see the numbers
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  Speaker 1: come through. And while earnings are definitely going to show
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: leverage next year, you know, you don't never want to
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: be around for when a company just meets expectations after
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: a recession, they've got to keep beating them by a
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: wide margin. So the new term setup is fine further
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: out first half of next year much offer. So Nick,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: we see some more positive data points, I guess just
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: on the geopolitical front, we're having president like Biden begin
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  Speaker 1: his transition, starting to fill out his cabinet, janet, yelling
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: treasury pick, what are your thoughts very helpful for markets
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: for I think probably all the obvious reasons, mostly, you know,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: having somebody who can coordinate treasury policy federal reserve policy
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  Speaker 1: and not necessarily emerge those two functions, but make them
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  Speaker 1: work as smoothly as possible, and we definitely need to
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  Speaker 1: help in they have fiscal and monetary policy work hand
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  Speaker 1: in glove. Also obviously an experienced set of hands for
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  Speaker 1: the economy. Somebody who is well known on Capitol Hill,
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  Speaker 1: somebody who can easily be be confirmed by the Senate.
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  Speaker 1: You know, just a huge thumbs up. It was a
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  Speaker 1: great choice. Who else would you like to see on board, Nick,
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  Speaker 1: in terms of regulation, in terms of everything else from
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: the SEC too, you know, anybody lee thing with the banks.
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  Speaker 1: It's a wonderful question. Um, you know, without naming any
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  Speaker 1: specific names, I think what the market wants to see.
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  Speaker 1: You know, what Biden seems very much in the channel
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  Speaker 1: to do is just picked non controversial, easy to confirm,
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  Speaker 1: widely acceptable choices and really get the you know, get
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Washington back into the mainstream of governing the way it did,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: you know, for the last fifty years instead of the
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  Speaker 1: last four. So Nick, how about as it relates to
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve chairman. Do you expect Pal to stay
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: or do you think the market would prefer perhaps someone
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: new Well, I mean, you know, Governor Brainers is obviously
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: the one that people call out is the most likely
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: potential next FED chare in two. I think the market
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  Speaker 1: would like that only in terms of her usually dovish
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  Speaker 1: bias Um and I think between you know, yelling and
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  Speaker 1: whoever comes in the next at the FED, the market
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  Speaker 1: is beginning to feel that incremental, really large bank regulation
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: isn't coming down the road, and so you're seeing you know,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: names like well as Fargo really work today, the financials
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: work today. That's really been a beaten up group, not
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: just for rates being so low, because of the threat
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: of more regulation. And as long as that doesn't that
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: doesn't come down the road, whoever is the next bed share,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: you know, should the market should welcome. So we just
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: had you know, retail sales reports that were pretty much okay, Nick,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: and yeah, we're seeing a little bit of a dent
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: and consumer conferdence this month, but nothing you know massive.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: We're seeing housing, at least in suburban areas across the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: country holding up even more than that. It's on fire.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: How is this economy doing? Yes, okay, So on retail sales,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: very interesting point. I mean, we think we're going to
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: see very strong November retail sales versus last year. NRF
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: was out yesterday with a pretty positive forecast on retail sales.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: And just think about how much money is not being
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: spent on holiday travel for example, that money is and
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: I spent get spent on holiday and recamplers have been
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: super aggressive on getting their specials out the door early,
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: whether it be online or in store, and so we
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: think November is going to be a very good month
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: of retail sales, and that will fit with the data
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: that we're seeing on home sales and home prices. We're
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: a little more circumspect about December, however, because we think
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of holiday demand pulled forward
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: to November and won't be there in December. So I
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: think the near term news is fine. We'll have to
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: wait and see how December plays out and then refasts. Nick,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: just what is your forecast for when the Dow actually
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: tops thirty? Oh, I don't know. I'm checking my watch.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: It's more along those lines um than anything else. I mean,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: it's a You know, it's that those people at discount
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: these big round numbers as something that really doesn't matter
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: to markets. I do think it matters to markets. If
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: you look to see how many retail investors google Dow
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Jones versus S and P it's Dow Jones by like one,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: they'll know when the deal gets to thirty and it
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: is a confidence lift, right, there is something to be
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: said for it, right, Yeah, yeah, I think so. I mean,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: it's a nice it's certainly nice for financial journalists to
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: talk about. But I think Nick, you're right. I mean,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: people do view it as a plateau to be to
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: be achieved, so it can be important from that. Yeah,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think when you hit a round number,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: at least what at least what becomes very obvious is
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: the direction, and if it's higher, well that's usually just
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the green light end of its lower world. Probably didn't
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: see that one coming, Nick, Thank you so much. Nick
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Cholos is co founder of Data Track Research, always full
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of fascinating market insights daily, so we thank him for that. Well,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: if you want to travel internationally, you better get used
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: to a new concept called a COVID passport. That's a
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: new word I think is entering our minacular right now.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Let's get some more details. We bring on Charlotte Ryan,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: aviation reporter for bloombergsh is based in London. Charlotte, what
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: is a COVID passport? And do I need one? If
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: I want to travel internationally? At some point? Good afternoon.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: So the COVID pass for it is an idea that
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: we've seen a few organizations starting to explore, the most
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: recent of those being AYATA, the International Air Transport Association.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: And basically what it is is UM, an online effective
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: health status that would show your most recent COVID test
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: results and whether you've had a vaccine when indeed a
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: vaccine is available. And the idea is to link this
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: UM with your travel documents so that when passengers travel,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: the airline or government that is accepting the passenger can
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: immediately see their health status. Who would be the regulator
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: for this? So that's a really good question, and it's still,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: in a sense a bit of an open question. We've
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: got a few a few initiatives that are underway at
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: the moment, and such a health path for its actually
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: being trialed on routes in Asia, but it's not clear
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: to what extend. Governments would have to be involved in this. Obviously,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: as we known from the travel disruption we've seen so
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: far with the virus is up to the individual governments
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: to decide under what conditions they want to let people in. UM.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: So that is very much something that still has to
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: be resolved with these health path worts. So Charlotte, what's
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: what's the position of airlines? Generally speaking, I would think
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: they would be in favor of anything that would get
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: people back in their seats. Yeah, exactly. So I mean
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: we with this latest effor if I have, they're going
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: to trial this with i D, one of the bigger
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: airlines UM and they say that they're hoping to launch
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: with other airlines as well. We've also had Quantis saying
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: this week that once a vaccine is in place, they
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: would not allow international passengers to travel unless they have
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: been vaccinated. So there certainly is a willingness I think
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: to get people back in the air and also to
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: be as sure of passengers. But it is safe to fly,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: so I don't fully understand because many of them are
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: not enforcing rules like mask wearing or you know, six
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: ft apart separation in the planes. But suddenly they'd want
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: you to prove that you've had a vaccine at some point. Yeah.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: So on the six ft rule, we did have a
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: couple of US airlines that were putting not quite six feet,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: but putting a gap in between each cassenger. So I
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: guess my point is that, you know, this doesn't seem
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: to be right now. They don't seem to be worried
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: about but too worried about, you know, enforcing certain rules
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: that might help people not get COVID. But when there
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: is a vaccine, suddenly they will be just explained that
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: to me sure, So I think in terms of mass
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: wearing at least, Um, you know, what we know from
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: the airlines is they all they all say that they
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: do enforced this currently. I know there have been cases
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: of individual flights where people's say that that's not what's happened. Um,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: And I think, yeah. With the vaccine, I mean, I
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: guess the advantage from the airline point of view is
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: that it's this very clear indication if you get on
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: a flight where everybody has been vaccinated, you know that
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: you're you're pretty much safe. Whereas I think from the
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: airline side of things, they have suggested that things like
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: putting a seat in between passengers aren't necessarily that effective
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: as something was spread anyway, Yeah, exactly, just real quickly,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: don't there any data that shows that people do get
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the virus from air traffic? I haven't seen many stories
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: about that. Yeah, so this is still again a bit
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: of an open question since what extent this virus in
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: particular can spreads on aircraft. But we have had cases.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: I asked to think they've been around four fifty cases,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: which sounds like a lot, but it's worth highly in.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: A good chunk of those were on a couple of
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: flights before the requirements where masks was brought in, and
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: but certainly there have been cases where where the virus
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: has spreads on the aircraft. It does seem that this
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: has something to do with the fact that just today
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: I had as predicting carriers will lose a combined one
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: fifty seven billion dollars this year and next year, which
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: is more than a forecast in June. So it also
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: was getting things wrong. Charlotte. Wonderful story, Charlotte, Ryan, they're
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: joining us well. I think for most people it appears
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: that this work from home situation is working out fairly well.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Now some companies are certainly think about what their staffing
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: plans will be post pandemic. UH. Deutsche back coming out
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: today and saying maybe they're considering on a permanent basis
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: having their workers work two days a week at home
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: on a permanent basis. Steve Aaron's is a German banks
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins us from Frankfurt. Steve,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. So talk to
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: us about the news today about Deutsche Bank. What are
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: there their plans here post pandemic so UM, as with
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: many other banks, Glergi Bank obviously has been thinking about
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: its future once the pandemic is over. And it's been
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: in the kind of work from home mode since the
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: pandemic broke out in in earlier this year and and
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: in February March, people have been working from the home. UH.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: They've been surprised as how well it's been working. And
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: now they're coming to the conclusion that this can help
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: UH lower costs and of course adapt to new circumstances,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: and therefore there now approaching a new policy where they
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: will probably allow people are work from home to day
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the week. So is it though, that you can work
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: home any two days you choose, because we know from
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: chat with hedge fund managers and various people who talk
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: to us about how their offices are staff that right
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: now Friday is not a very popular day for people
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: to come in, and neither is Monday. So are we
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: going to have of deute buying stuff in on Tuesday, Wednesday,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Thursday and the rest, you know, not in Monday Friday. Yeah,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure how Dodge Bank will handle it,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: but you're right, obviously that would be probably a very
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: heavy focus on Friday and Monday to work from home.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure they will have policies in place that
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: won't permit that, though I don't have really insight knowledge
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: and that, but yeah, I think a lot of companies
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: are trying to figure out. I mean, most likely scenario,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, is to have you know, binding agreement
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: in place for certain days of the week and then
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: they will ensure it's sort of even it evens out,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: and then if you don't get Friday on Monday, and
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: I guess you're locked out. So, Steve, do you have
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: any sense or do Stuorte Bank have any sense at
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: this point as to what types of people would be
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: given this work from home opportunity. I would think they
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: would want their traders in, maybe their investment bankers in
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: every day. So it's just more of a back office
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: type thing. Yeah, I guess that's another important consideration, right, Traitors,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: for compliance reasons and many other reasons, need to be
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: at their death in the office a lot of the time,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: so it's likely that they may have only one day
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: or no days. Um, that's certainly something that is still
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: working on UM and uh in the same goes for
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: UM client facing people who travel a lot UM. So yeah,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: I think we're mostly talking about the back office you're
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: aware of. Working from home is much less of an issue.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: And then for the other stuff, so you know, not
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: that money companies have put out formal blueprints because nobody
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: knows who, nobody knows how long the pandemic is going
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: to last one, vaccines are going to be available, at
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: what point their workers are going to be able to
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: access vaccines and so on. Why do dot de bank
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: decide to do this now? Well, it's not it's not
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: a formal announcement, right, we booked the news. It's people
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: familiar U However, there are banks European banks who have
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: made sort of preliminary announcements. What they're planning is um
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: and they're ranging from twenty to fifty on Dutch banks
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: and said they will allow fifty percent of staff to
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: work from home. So I just think it's you know,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: we've had a trial line of working from home since
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: the beginning of this year. They realize it's working well,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: and now you know, you have to consider if you
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: want this to impact your policies. You have nieces in place,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: if you want to reduce office space, you have to
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: start doing this now because it will play out over
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: a very long period of time. Also, you need to
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: talk to regulators about install on. If you don't make
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: a decision at some point, um, it's gonna just you're
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: gonna delay the whole implementation for a long time. So, Steve,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I wonder how much of this is really a cost
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: cutting move here. I mean, you know better than anybody
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: the difficulty that German banks have been dealing with four years,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: especially now with this low and negative interest rate environment.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: How much do you think that's playing into a cost
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: cutting costs on a long term basis. Yeah, you're absolutely right.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: European banks and specifically German banks and Deutsche Bank have
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: a huge cost problem and I'm we want to prevent
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: sure that this is a very big consideration. But if
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: you know, they sort of for them, it's a win
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: win situation if it really does make staff happy. You know,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: if you'll give your staff the opportunity to work from
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: home and they're happier about it and you can cut
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: costs at the same time, why not, right, I mean,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: it works, it works. Well. What when there's a vaccine
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: that everybody can get access to and everybody is vaccinated
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: that wants to be vaccinated, and we've decided that this
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: pandemic is not a yearly thing that mutates, will we really?
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, does anybody really think we'll see any capitalist
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: country continuing with this idea for you know, the next
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: five and fifteen years and permanently. M that's yeah, I mean,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: that's a crystal ball question. But I do think so.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, all the banks are saying this has been
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: a sea chain for them. They now think work from
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: home is the new normal. They also say officers will
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: always be a place in important place for them. They
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: will never abandon their officers entirely. But I do think
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: there will be a mixed model. Uh. And now that
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: people have been working at home and their managers a
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: line managers real life people don't flack off at home
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: and productivity stays at the same level, then why not? Yeah?
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Do you think it will stay? So, Steve? Is this
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: when do you think we're gonna see some more news
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: out of maybe Deutsche Bank or some other banks. As
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: to announcements, I think I think there will be every
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: now and then there will be banks making announcement announcements
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: on this as they come to a conclusion what they
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: really want to have for set up. I'm not sure.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: We don't know when Dutche Bank will make a formally
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: adopt out plan. It may still be a few months.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, you're some European bankers Upstad have
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: made that formal announcement, and I'm pretty sure others will
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: follow suit. Stephen Aaron's joining us there with a wonderful
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: story on Deutsche banks moving to a reduced workforce from
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: in house areas at least, and Stephen, of course covering
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: all of the woes of European banks over the last
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: several years. It doesn't seem to be getting all that
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: much better, but at least they've got something else to
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: think about for the moment. Stephen Aaron's they're joining us
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: from Frankfurt, Germany. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn. And Paul Sweeney I'm on
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio