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Ep#100 Mountain West Shakeup: Newcomers & Bold Predictions · The Blue Creek Outdoors Podcast

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Welcome to the Blue Creek Outdoors podcast, where we're talking faith,
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family, sports, and the great outdoors.
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Welcome back to our final preseason episode of the Blue Creek Outdoors podcast.
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We're talking about the Mountain West Conference today. However,
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week zero just got played, and we were just talking about, before I hit the
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record button, that next fall, I think we're going to bump,
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all these episodes one week prior so that we have a dedicated week zero episode.
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We've never done that before.
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We just timed our three preseason episodes to then the next week was the week zero and one episode.
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But after this week zero, I want a week zero episode Dude, I think we got to
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do it Especially when I'm sure most people sat down to watch the first weekend
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of college football like we did And.
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I would say it was nothing short of fantastic We had some nail-biter games,
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a lot of upsets, which you like to see And dude, it's got me amped up for whatever
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else this college football season is going to bring I thought I read somewhere
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where there is no longer going to be a week zero.
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It's just going to be when football starts.
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And I didn't read it well enough, but I'm pretty sure they talked about it just
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being no longer a week zero.
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Right, right. Well, as soon as we hit the later in the season,
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I'm sure we'll get some updates on what next season is going to look like in the format.
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Every year we've had to put up with changes, obviously. So, but that being said,
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a couple of NAIA teams beat FCS programs this last week, a couple of massive
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big sky games, which we're going to talk about next week as well.
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And then there were three Mountain West teams that played in week zero this
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week, which we will talk about when we come to each one of those teams.
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But we're here in the FBS. We're talking about the Mountain West conference this week. I am.
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I'm very excited about the Mountain West. Before I get into why,
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we'll do a preseason top 25 here.
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AP poll for the preseason top 25 is number one, Ohio State, Oregon at number
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two, Georgia at number three,
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four for Notre Dame, and Texas rounds out the top five, followed by Indiana,
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Miami, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma to finish out the top 10.
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We got LSU, Texas Tech, Alabama, BYU, USC, and Michigan. If I remember correctly,
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though, I think that there's 13 in Alabama, and then BYU, USC,
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and Michigan, I believe, are all a three-way tie for the 14 slot.
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And then 17 is Washington, 18 is Penn State, SMU at 19, Tennessee is number
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20, Utah is number 21, Iowa is number 22, Houston at 23, 24 is Louisville, and Missouri at 25.
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All powerful programs in the top 25. Are there any surprises in the top 25,
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in your guys' opinion? Or is there any disrespect based on who's not in there?
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I think my biggest surprise is Louisville. I know they finished the season strong,
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but out of it, I've been reading a lot of articles to where a lot of people
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think that Louisville is going to have an Indiana-esque type season.
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Since Lamar Jackson was present there in Louisville, not much has happened.
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A lot of consecutive losing seasons.
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And so now they're starting to hit that breakthrough.
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I don't know. I mean, not all of these teams are going to finish in the top
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25 when it's all said and done. No.
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So, I mean, I'm not sure. Alabama's got to have a season.
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Right. I'm not sure. I'm a Missouri guy. What about, I mean,
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as much as I'd like to see Houston do well, I don't know that they're going to be in there.
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Right. I don't even know if SMU. What about Penn State? Just because,
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yeah, I don't know. Yeah.
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There are some head scratchers there. I am interested to see it play out down the stretch as well.
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I tend to agree with you a little bit there. I tend to not think Louisville
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is going to have an Indiana-type run, but that'll be interesting to see.
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Hey, it would make it a very entertaining season if that was the case.
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I'd be fine too. Louisville is also always overrated.
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Who's always overrated? The No. 4 team, Notre Dame.
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Dang, that's a bold statement. Yeah, that's disrespectful. They always happen
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to be in the top 25 somewhere, and, you know, we'll see.
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They have done fantastic. I just – I got to make that comment for less.
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They got six first-place votes.
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They did. They did get six first-place votes. Austin, that is not some conspiracy. Right.
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Are we – I'm not going to confirm. They made a statement and stayed out of it.
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They are in. They are going, and they might be playing in the natty.
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You never know. You know, now this isn't, this is an interesting thought and
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this has nothing to do with Notre Dame in particular because I do enjoy Notre Dame football.
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If you, here's what I, I just had this thought pop into my mind.
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Tell me what you think about this. If you opt out of your bowl game.
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You are automatically not in next season's top 25 preseason.
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The whole top 25? I would say maybe top 10 if they were to do that.
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But at the same time, it is. I think you'll start the season just NR,
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not ranked. You know what I mean? Don't even give them a number.
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It'll sort itself out in the first couple weeks of the season.
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I don't know. Maybe that doesn't make any sense. But it makes me mad when teams do that regardless.
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I'm not saying they didn't get hosed. I am just saying.
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And you're saying teams like, albeit they're good, we're talking UNLV,
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New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, all of them would be ranked because
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they did play in a playoff or in a bowl game.
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And then how do you start to decipher those things as Notre Dame plays, you know, whoever FCST?
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That's what I'm saying. It'll sort itself out down the stretch.
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They'll be back in the, you know what I mean?
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Like the first poll, they'll be back into it. But the preseason,
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I don't know. I just don't like it when teams play bowl games or don't play bowl games.
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And I look for any way to throw shade on that as I possibly can.
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So let's look at the new Mountain West. The old Mountain West had 12 teams.
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And the final rankings from last year were UNLV, New Mexico,
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San Diego State, and Boise State, all at 6-2.
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Boise State ended up winning the conference championship.
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We then had Fresno at 5, Hawaii at 6. Both of them were 5-3.
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Seven was Utah State at four and four. Air Force was three and five at number eight.
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Wyoming and Nevada and San Jose were nine, ten, eleven at two and six.
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And what makes my heart happier than anything I can tell you is that Colorado
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State finished dead last in the last Mountain West poll they were ever going
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to be part of at one and seven in the conference, which brings me a great joy.
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I'm more happy that Colorado State was last than I am if Wyoming would have been number one.
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Uh, so the new disheartening to know that you're not even chasing a conference
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championship. You're just chasing one win a year.
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Only thing better would have been one in zero or oh, and a, oh, and a obvious play.
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Yeah, we got the boot, but here we go. So the new for this season,
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they did not do a media poll. They did not do a coach's poll in the mountain
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West based on the new complete alignment.
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So the 2026 power rankings for the 10 teams in the conference are as follows.
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Number one is UNLV. Number two is New Mexico. Three is North Dakota State. Number four is Hawaii.
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Air Force at five. Wyoming at six.
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San Jose at seven. Nevada at eight. Northern Illinois at number nine. And 10 is UTEP.
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And I'm having a hard time finding any flaws in that.
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I think that's pretty darn close to what I would have guessed for the beginning of the season.
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Yeah, once I kind of, you know, was doing a little bit more research as we got closer to this podcast.
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And comparing what I thought the power rankings would be versus what's written down.
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And mine are pretty close. I would say nothing is necessarily out of the ordinary,
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but I think we'll get into it there towards the end of our predictions.
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Yeah, I think it's based on last year's merits and things of that nature.
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But if you, yeah, I guess I would say I have a hard time with North Dakota being
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three, North Dakota State being three after you look at the way they're going
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to start their schedule off. Right.
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And I'm not too sure Hawaii and Air Force shouldn't be lower.
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Ooh. Ooh. You're trying to bump those cowboys up is what you're trying to do.
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I see you there, Les. Yeah. And I'm not too sure about San Jose.
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You know what I mean? I don't, I don't know.
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And I, yeah, all of it is, is being hopeful regarding Nevada.
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Right. Right. But I just don't see it. It's just not going to end this way when
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it's all said and done. And so where are the, where are the teams going to be?
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Well, Les, you've just, this fall you've had already, we're only three weeks
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into this podcast and you've just had a knack for segues here.
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We are going to talk about the Nevada Wolfpack here first. So head coach Jeff
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Cho entering his third season. He's 6-19 overall, former head coach of the Montana State Broadcats.
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They were 3-9 in 2025, 2-6 in Mountain West play. They lost to Penn State to
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be in the season. They beat Sacramento State at home.
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They then lost 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 in a row. They lost to Middle Tennessee,
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Western Kentucky, Fresno State, San Diego State, New Mexico,
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Boise State, and Utah State.
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They then won two straight. They beat San Jose State, and then they win in Laramie,
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and then they finish their season with a loss to UNLV.
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So they are opening their season this fall, September 5th, at home against Western Kentucky.
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They lost to them on the road last year.
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Then they host Montana State. Then they're at Middle Tennessee.
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They then host Air Force, followed by a bye. Then they're at UTEP,
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at North Dakota State, at home against San Jose State, at UCLA,
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at home against New Mexico, at Northern Illinois, at home against Hawaii, and at UNLV.
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A bye after week four, followed by eight straight games.
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Makes for a tough stretch there. Vegas has their win total at three and a half.
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And I have two things that I'm thinking here.
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I think Jeff Choate's on the hot seat. And three and a half.
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Let's say, Northern Illinois and UTEP.
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I'm comfortable with those ones. They don't play Wyoming this year.
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I don't know. I don't know.
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I think the ceiling is probably four wins, which that's a conversation that
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we have whether Coach Cho keeps his job with four wins.
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I hate to do this. I legitimately hate to do this. I think I'm under on the Wolfpack.
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I'm just not seeing a slam dunk fourth win here. You know what I mean? Not saying they can't.
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I think they could. Not really is kind of my opinion. Say that again,
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sorry. I said kind of, sort of, not really.
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I think they can. I'm calling the over mainly because I think they have the
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potential for a five-win season.
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Now whether or not Choate can, you know, that's going to be his win total to
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keep his job for at least another season and hoping for further improvement.
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And unfortunately, he's kind of had his back up against the wall with this team
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since he got there between tons of transfers, young teams, and I think this
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year is going to be a little bit of a breakthrough for him with this team in general.
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They have a little bit of a blank slate at the skill positions,
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which I think you can find in the transfer portal in any way, shape, or form almost.
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And they have a strong defensive front. So I think that's going to be a core.
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Later in the season, their special teams and defense kind of dropped out while
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the offense stayed consistent.
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But I think they improve off of that at least. Yeah, it's going to be hard to
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predict the wins. It just depends on, obviously, health and getting the season
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off to the start. Western Kentucky is going to be a battle.
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They lost to them last year, but at least they have them at home.
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And, you know, the quarterback for Western Kentucky is going to be good.
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The one thing that Nevada has to have is, obviously, they have to have good defensive play.
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Last year, we were at the Nevada-Fresno State game, and actually,
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in some ways, they maybe outplayed Fresno other than turnovers.
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So if you read about Nevada and it's the turnovers, and then I think they have to have better QB play.
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When I say have to, meaning I think their QB situation will be better.
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That freshman kid will have another year under his belt. They have a transfer from UCLA.
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And, you know, I don't know. They're going to be a little bit Leach-esque,
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which I'm not sure that bodes well for a Jeff Cho coaching mentality,
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but at least they'll be different for other teams to prepare for.
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And I do know defensive line-wise, I think defensive line-wise,
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they might have a couple guys that could end up in the league.
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So if they can play good enough defense and come along.
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Those first two games are scary games. Very much so.
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Yeah, that's a tough money game, and I know those get scheduled pretty far in
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advance, which the timing ends up either very fortunate or very unfortunate at times in that regard.
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But I will say this. We're going to put a pin.
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I'm going to put a pin in VAT here because we're going to come back to the back
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of the episode, I think. But they could potentially be the team in my mind that
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overperforms expectations or exceeds expectations.
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I think that there is some places or some keys in place to make that happen,
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but we'll come back to that thought after we've kind of talked through everybody.
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The next team we're going to talk about is New Mexico.
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Head coach Jason Eck entering his second season. He's 9-4. Last year,
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he was the former head coach at Idaho.
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In 2025, they were 9-4, 6-3 in the Mountain West.
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They lost at Michigan to open the season. They then beat Idaho State,
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beat UCLA on the road, won at home against New Mexico State.
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They then lost two in a row. They lost at San Jose, which they really shouldn't
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have done. I remember watching that football game, And San Jose really,
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really outplayed New Mexico. So I don't know if they had looked past them towards
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Boise State or what. They then go then lose to Boise State.
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They then win six or seven straight. I can't remember. Nevada,
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Utah State, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force, and San Diego State.
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And then they had a very disappointing loss in the rate bowl.
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They lost to Minnesota 20-17 in overtime. That's not a terrible loss,
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especially losing to a decent Minnesota team last year. but it still was pretty
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heartbreaking in overtime there.
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This season, they start September 5th at home against Central Michigan.
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They then host Mercyhurst.
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Then they're at Oklahoma, at New Mexico State, at home against UTEP, followed by a bye week.
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Then they're at Hawaii, at home against North Dakota State, at San Jose,
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at Nevada, at home against UNLV, at Wyoming, and at home against Air Force.
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Their win total is 8.5, and I'll tell you right off the bat,
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I'm taking the over for the New Mexico Lobos.
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You're going to lose to Oklahoma. That's on the road. But as far as Mountain
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West play goes, you've got North Dakota State at home. You've got UNLV at home.
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And I think both of those games are gettable.
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And I think it kind of just depends on, you know, where we're at in the season
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injury-wise and who's got the momentum.
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But there is a potential for New Mexico to win this conference in its first
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year and with the new format and win it outright.
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Yeah, and I know we talked about it in depth last year, and it was as hard as
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it was to say, I think New Mexico should have got the nod in the Mountain West
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Championship game, at least get into the game.
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And I think they're carrying over a lot into this season, maybe a little bit
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of a chip on their shoulder.
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But after looking at their SP Plus statistics, there's an article that was put
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out about it, They have a 63% returning production stat line, basically.
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So based off of last year, they're returning 63% of what they're going to do
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outside of whatever they either gained or lost in the portal to graduation,
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anything like that, on top of a sizable redshirt freshman class that's coming back.
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And with four offensive linemen returning, I think that's going to be a huge
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advantage, at least on the offensive side of the ball.
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And the defense seems just as sound as they were last year, especially with
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that increased improvement.
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It's interesting. From the outside looking in, would you think Nevada or New
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Mexico was a better job, say, 10 years ago? Nevada, hands down.
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So it's hard for me to pick New Mexico.
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I didn't really understand why Kochak left Idaho to go to New Mexico.
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But whatever they have going on down there is, is pretty special.
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We've kind of turned the corner and, and looking at their, their, uh.
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Schedule, they certainly could have maybe three losses in back-to-back pretty successful seasons.
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Right. I think nine wins is honestly kind of the floor as long as they take
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care of business. Obviously, they lost on the road to San Jose,
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which they should not have last year.
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But I think they're back nine and four.
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There's not going to be a conference championship game, if I remember correctly
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in this new format. Maybe I'm wrong about that. I'll have to look that up again.
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But I think they're going bowling regardless, and I think they'll have back-to-back
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winning seasons, and I'm kind of excited to watch them.
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Historically, the Lobos do not play well in Laramie, so that'll be the only
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thing a week 11 that I'm having fingers crossed on or whatever week that is there.
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Hopefully, you know, maybe they drop a... Maybe they have a rough game on the
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high plains, but maybe that probably won't happen either.
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But going to be an exciting season for the Lobos. I definitely have them finishing in the top three.
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We will move on to the next team here. There's a segue right there.
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We're going to talk about Wyoming. We're going to talk about the Wyoming Cowboys,
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Jay Sovell, entering his third season.
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He's 7-17 overall. And I can tell you right now, if they don't improve and they
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don't have a quarterback that can walk and chew bubblegum at the same time,
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Coach Sovell will be on his way out the door.
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Last year, 2025, they were 4-8, 2-6 in Mountain West play.
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They won at Akron to start the season, then they beat Northern Iowa at home. They then lost four.
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Straight to Utah, Colorado, and UNLV. They beat San Jose State.
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They then lost at Air Force. Wyoming typically plays terrible in Colorado Springs.
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They beat Colorado State 28-0, and then they lost their last four at San Diego
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State, at Fresno State, at home against Nevada, and at Hawaii to end the season.
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This year, they begin their season September 5th at Colorado State.
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So they're keeping the border war intact as now a non-conference game so it's
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going to feel very weird that that game is getting played in September and not
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November they then host Northern Colorado at Central Michigan at home against
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Hawaii at North Dakota State at San Jose.
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Northern Illinois host Air Force have a bye week and then their last four games
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are at UNLV at UTEP at home against New Mexico and at home against UConn the
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win total is five and a half And I'm not going to lie to you.
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I'm optimistic. I'm going to go over with the Cowboys, and it ain't going to be a lot over.
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But I think they hit six wins this year. I think they beat Colorado State and
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Northern Colorado. I do think they beat Central Michigan.
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And then I think they beat Northern Illinois and UTEP. And I think they pick
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one up they maybe shouldn't, maybe against a UConn or San Jose again.
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I think they pull six wins off.
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Yeah, I feel like I've had this same comment even since before Coach Bull got to Wyoming.
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But the Cowboys are on the cusp. They're always right there. They can see it.
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The carrot has been dangled, right? But it comes on the execution of all of
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it. And I think what Sawville has done with their defense in the last,
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he's been there, what, five or six years?
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Yeah, well, he was the DC, and now he's the head man, obviously.
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But unlike Coach Vegan, who, in my opinion, now that we learn more about the
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Coach Bull area, maybe Coach Bull held Vegan back to an extent.
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However, he's obviously a better head coach than he was in OC.
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And unfortunately for Jay Sauvel, it seems like he's not as good as a head coach as he was at DC.
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Now, in theory, with what he has done with the defense, and unfortunately you
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did have some key starters.
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Either leave for graduation or transfer out, or whatever, if they kind of create
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that balance and offense can score points and the defense still has strong play,
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they have six wins under their belt, you know, nine times out of 10 with the same schedule.
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Now, like you said earlier, I think if they do, you know, squeak a couple out
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that they shouldn't, then, you know, you might see a seventh.
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You hope for a bold berth and it's nice seeing nine starters with over 200 snaps
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coming back. So I think that'll be a good step forward. But like I said,
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man, That carrot's been dangled.
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Now that a majority of, I would say, the top 30% of the Mountain West is no
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longer in the Mountain West, this is Wyoming's biggest chance to chase a conference
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championship. Maybe not this year, but that should start to be their goal, I think.
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Well, in their first four games...
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Could they beat Hawaii? I mean, what's the...
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Well... But they host Hawaii, right?
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Yeah, and Hawaii, statistic, in past years, has not played well in Laramie.
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Well, first of all, it would be the environment versus what they're used to,
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being in and then going to the high plains.
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What's the altitude in Laramie again?
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72-20. The football field is at 72-20. Yeah. I just think that's a hurdle.
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Yeah, big time. For Hawaii.
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And so, I mean, could you be 2-2? Could you be 3-1? Could you be 4-4?
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Or, I mean, 4-0 in those first four games?
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I think that's possible. Yeah, I think it's possible. And going to Fargo at
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4-0, that's a much different mentality than going to Fargo even at 2-2, I think. Yeah.
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I mean, obviously, you have a William & Mary transfer quarterback,
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which, you know, hopefully that's an improvement.
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A new OC from William & Mary?
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Yeah. And they were second in the red zone on defense last year in the nation.
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And I don't know that would be a lot to expect to have a team go down.
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To be that good on defense again in two years in a row, if they can match their
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defense and if they just flat out don't turn the ball over, just don't turn
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the ball over, they would maybe have a chance.
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Right. That's been one of the more frustrating things is how bad Wyoming has been.
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And then you look at the defensive categories throughout the country,
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and Wyoming is like a top 20 defense in so many categories. And you're like,
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dude, this is how bad our offense is. It is so bad.
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They would not be able to score on a middle school, sixth grade team.
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They're that bad. So we'll figure out, hopefully, week one at Colorado State,
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we go figure that out, and we'll get a glimpse of how maybe that offense.
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But we're going to talk about newcomer, North Dakota State.
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Head coach Tim Palasek entering his third season, 26-3 overall,
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did head to North Dakota State from the staff at Wyoming as well.
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In 2025, they went 12-1, 8-0 in the Missouri Valley Conference in the FCS.
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They beat the Citadel, Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri, South Dakota, Illinois State.
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They beat Illinois State regular season on the road, and then they beat Southern
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Illinois. They won at Indiana State, at South Dakota State, at home against
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Youngstown State, at North Dakota, at home against Northern Iowa,
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and then beat St. Thomas to finish the regular season.
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And then in the second round, they got a bye in the first round of the playoffs,
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and they lost to Illinois State 29-28 in the second round at home.
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Illinois State made a massive comeback right in the fourth quarter and then
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eventually went on to appear in the national championship.
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2026, the North Dakota State Bison are eligible for postseason play,
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so they are eligible to win the conference and achieve a bowl game.
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They opened their season last night, August 28th, against Jacksonville State,
25:10
and they did win that football game. It was a little tough.
25:13
It was a pretty good game early, and then North Dakota State,
25:16
of course, I just had it pulled up, and then ESPN kicked me out of it.
25:19
The final score on that game was.
25:23
37 to 27, let's see. Yes, or sorry, 33 to 7.
25:29
33 to 7. The second half was extremely convincing in the North Dakota State, leaning there.
25:35
They play Fordham next week at home. This is what I'm wondering.
25:40
If you're first season at FBS from FCS and then you host an FCS team,
25:44
are you paying them money? Are they paying Fordham money, do you think?
25:48
I don't know. Do you think they are? Okay.
25:52
Then they are at Air Force, at Sacramento State, at home against Wyoming,
25:56
at UNLV, at home against Nevada, at New Mexico.
26:00
They are at home against UTEP. They have a bye week, and then their last three
26:04
games are at Hawaii, at home against Northern Illinois, and at San Jose State.
26:08
I'm a little bit intrigued. The win last night against what Jacksonville State's
26:13
won Conference USA, like the last two years in a row or something like that,
26:16
or at least been in the title game.
26:18
So not a bad football team. Beat them 33-7. They're going to smoke Fordham.
26:22
I think at Air Force is like a pretty crucial moment for this team.
26:28
Obviously, I think they'll beat Sacramento State.
26:30
And then once they're four games in, it's down the stretch of the Mountain West
26:35
schedule. So I, I do not think North Dakota State comes out of this season unblemished.
26:42
I don't think they will beat New Mexico. I don't think they'll beat UNLV.
26:47
Those games are both on the road.
26:50
And I honestly think, I just think they're going to get tripped up somewhere else.
26:55
I don't think they'll win the conference. However, I do think their win total is 9.5.
27:03
I'm actually going to go under the 9.5. I'm going to go under 9.5,
27:08
but I don't think it's a lot.
27:10
But I think we're talking eight or nine wins here and a very solid first season, but.
27:18
Not the road to the playoff that people are talking about.
27:23
Yeah, I think North Dakota State in general has a lot of upsides to the team.
27:29
They have had continued success at the FCS level, very obviously, right?
27:33
But there's always going to be some woes when it comes to this kind of transition
27:37
and a little bit of a change of speed.
27:39
I'm going to take the under in general for North Dakota State,
27:44
but I think they're still going to make a solid name for themselves,
27:48
just historically, right?
27:50
And they're convincing win against Jacksonville State.
27:53
The Mountain West is the second best G6 conference, and the fact that North
27:58
Dakota State's going to come in,
28:00
and make a statement and finish at least at minimum in the top half of the conference
28:06
says a lot about that program and where they can potentially go.
28:09
So I'm excited to watch them play.
28:11
I don't think they're going to beat UNLV. I think Air Force is going to be a huge test.
28:16
If Air Force, you know, we'll get into it. If they make, you know,
28:18
significant changes, don't turn the ball over.
28:21
They could be up there as well. I think that will be one of the game of the
28:25
weeks to watch that week. And we'll see how it goes from there.
28:30
So Sovel and Palasek, Sovel became the head coach at Wyoming,
28:36
and Palasek took the North Dakota State job.
28:40
So three years ago, who would have been the best head coaching candidate out of those two?
28:49
Well, Craig Boll felt strongly enough that it was Jay Sovel,
28:53
that he had a great influence in that decision.
28:57
There's rumors that Polisek was pretty sour over that.
29:01
However, it did lead to this opportunity.
29:04
And as college football storylines would go, it's about to compare apples to apples.
29:13
Yeah, and I don't necessarily think, I mean, obviously, I would say going into
29:18
it, regarding this kind of stuff, is North Dakota State's maybe a better job than Wyoming.
29:26
And so we will see if North Dakota State can return basically to dominance because,
29:35
yes, they won a national championship, but I would also argue that that was Coach Ence's team.
29:40
They won it. And then last year, you know, they did not look good towards the
29:46
end of the season last year in terms of their, yes, they lost.
29:50
But, I mean, the last half of their season, they did not look good.
29:55
And so I think that Air Force game is up in the air, or they could be 5-0 going to UNLV.
30:02
Now all of a sudden you play UNLV, yes, you host Nevada, New Mexico.
30:08
I mean, you're at Hawaii, and I don't think at that point in time,
30:11
Northern Illinois and San Jose State.
30:14
You had better figure out who you are and how you're going to play football
30:20
when you go down the last half of that schedule. You'd better be improving.
30:27
And I guess I don't know if I should call the under or the over.
30:30
I just, for me, the jury's out.
30:33
Right. And there, you know, a lot of people have pointed to that,
30:36
that yes, they had a 12-1 season last year.
30:39
But you're correct. They didn't look the greatest down the later half of that
30:43
stretch at times, and they're kind of wondering if maybe North Dakota State
30:48
sees the downhill slope coming and thought to themselves, hey,
30:51
if we need to go, we need to go now,
30:55
or this invitation is not going to be here in a couple years if we're not having
30:58
the success that we're having.
30:59
So it's going to be interesting, and apparently my one-year-old has opinions
31:03
on North Dakota State as well, but...
31:05
Yeah, I'm pretty interested to see, but I just don't think over nine and a half
31:09
wins is going to, I don't think a 10 win season is in the making at all.
31:12
So I, but I do think they will be a team that if any Mountain West teams look
31:17
past them, it's going to, it's going to cost them.
31:21
But we're going to move over to the next new team in the conference and the
31:25
opposite of North Dakota State, in my opinion, Northern Illinois.
31:29
The interesting thing about Northern Illinois is head coach Rob Harley still has an interim tag.
31:34
He was the DC last year, was named the interim head coach in January,
31:39
and that has not been changed.
31:41
In 2025, they went three and nine in the MAC, or three and nine,
31:44
they went two and six in the MAC.
31:46
They won, they opened the season with a win against Holy Cross, 19 to 17.
31:51
Holy Cross is a decent FCS team, but by no means a powerhouse.
31:55
They then lost at Maryland, lost at Mississippi State, lost at San Diego State,
32:01
lost at home to Miami, lost at Eastern Michigan, at Ohio.
32:05
They beat Ball State at home. They then lost at Toledo.
32:08
They won at UMass. They then lost to Western Michigan and lost to Kent State to finish the season.
32:14
This year, they opened the season September 5th at Iowa.
32:17
Then they're at home against Illinois State, which you're going to lose that
32:22
one too, I'm afraid. That's a very, very good FCS team.
32:25
Then you're at Arizona and at Georgia State. Then you have a bye week before
32:29
Mountain West play at home against Air Force, at Wyoming,
32:33
at home against Hawaii, at UNLV, at San Jose State, at home against Nevada,
32:38
at North Dakota State, and at home against UTEP.
32:41
And that very last week of the season, Northern Illinois hosting UTEP,
32:46
that might be the toilet bowl of the season conclusion there, unfortunately.
32:52
Their win total is three and a half.
32:54
I'm not seeing it. I'll be honest. I always feel like a jerk when some teams'
33:01
win total is this low and you still don't want to take the over.
33:05
But I don't want to take the over.
33:07
I think three wins is probably a ceiling for Northern Illinois.
33:10
And quite frankly, I don't know that they're going to get that many.
33:13
Yeah, I think if they make it out of the first four games and make it to their
33:17
bye week with a win against Georgia State, then they're pacing to do okay for themselves.
33:23
But that one's big, especially on the road. And then going down,
33:26
I mean, they really kind of put them in a little bit of a gauntlet with Air Force.
33:31
I think the Wyoming game will be a good game, but I still think Wyoming's going
33:35
to get the win. Hawaii, that's a loss. UNLV is a loss.
33:38
Hopefully Nevada beats them. North Dakota State's going to beat them.
33:42
And UTEP, they might be chasing their third win. Maybe it'll be a fourth.
33:46
Who knows what's going to happen. But I can tell you that their production that
33:49
they're returning from last year is not very good.
33:53
And Northern Illinois really did not set their program up for success by naming
34:00
a head coach and then put him the interim tag on it.
34:03
What is that saying to your players? What is that saying to the parents of your
34:07
players? What are you saying to the coaches?
34:11
You're not guaranteeing, you know, give them two years, give them whatever.
34:16
But to put the interim tag on somebody and you name them the head coach and
34:20
then you label them an interim going into the next year you're not you're not
34:25
even trying to set your football program or any program for that matter up for success,
34:31
yeah you need to have a little bit of hope whenever whenever you're coming especially
34:34
into a new conference too and you're like well we don't know if we're going
34:37
to keep them or not and you know it's kind of an easy out and you know not having
34:40
that faith in your program
34:42
is you know like you said is not a good step in the right direction.
34:46
Yeah. I mean, yeah. Yeah. Just, okay. Interim. So now you got a coach for your
34:50
job. Okay. Well, you've got a coach through your job every year anyway.
34:54
And now you want to try to get a defensive coordinator. You want an offensive
34:58
coordinator. You want a wide receivers coach. You want a quarterback coach.
35:01
Ooh, this is a one-year gig basically. That's, that's what those guys are saying.
35:07
Right. I, uh, I don't feel for Northern Illinois right now. I,
35:11
uh, I, or I mean, I do feel for them, I guess I should say. I don't envy them.
35:15
It will be interesting to see that non-conference schedule is pretty brutal
35:19
as well. Hopefully, they're getting some money for that Iowa and Arizona games.
35:23
They have seven away games, five home. Seven away games, five home games,
35:27
new conference, two power four schools,
35:30
on the docket, a powerhouse FCS team, and a Georgia State team that looks like
35:36
maybe your best shot at a win, but even that game's on the road.
35:40
So that's going to be tough. We will see. I don't think they're hitting three and a half.
35:45
I don't think they're hitting. I mean, I think three is the ceiling there, but well, we'll see.
35:50
I'm always a fan of the underdog. I'm a fan of struggling teams.
35:53
Well, hopefully, I mean, obviously I'm a fan of struggling teams.
35:55
I've been a Wyoming Cowboys fan for my entire life.
35:57
So we will, fingers crossed, we'll cheer for the Huskies out of Northern Illinois.
36:02
But we'll move on here to Hawaii with head coach Timmy Chang entering his fifth
36:06
season. He's 13 and 25 overall.
36:09
2025, they went 9-4, 5-3 in the Mountain West Conference. They beat Stanford
36:14
to open the season. They lost at Arizona.
36:16
They beat Sam Houston and beat Portland State. They then lost at home to Fresno.
36:21
They then beat Air Force, Utah State, and Colorado State. They lost at San Jose,
36:25
another one that San Jose pulled off. They probably shouldn't have.
36:28
They beat San Diego State at home. They lost at UNLV. They beat Wyoming.
36:33
And then they won the Hawaii Bowl against California, 35-31.
36:37
In 2026. They opened their season last night as well at Stanford,
36:42
which they lost, which in my opinion is very disappointing.
36:45
They lost 37 to 27 for all those people that had Hawaii on their dark horse
36:50
list for the college football playoff. You can take it off now.
36:53
They host UNLV next week and then they're at New Mexico state followed by a bye.
36:58
They're then at Wyoming at home against San Jose at Arizona state at home against
37:02
New Mexico at Northern Illinois followed by another bye week.
37:06
And then they're at UTEP, at home against North Dakota State,
37:09
at Nevada, and at home against Sac State. They have a win total of seven and a half.
37:15
Which, you got New Mexico State, call it just favorite against Wyoming,
37:20
San Jose, New Mexico, Northern Illinois, UTEP, Nevada, and Sac State. There's seven.
37:29
I don't know if the Rainbow Warriors get an eighth win this fall.
37:33
You can always, I think, maybe try and, you know, for these teams that aren't
37:37
dominant, but they're not bad, I think you can always count on the majority
37:40
of teams to pick one up that you shouldn't and lose one that you shouldn't.
37:44
So factoring that into the category here i seven and a half i i'm gonna man
37:52
i'm going under i'm going under the seven and a half i don't i just don't see
37:56
a comfortable eighth win here.
38:00
I think hawaii wins the games that they they should have won last year and that is their step forward,
38:07
now that they have the confidence like hey we can not only can we have a winning
38:10
season but we can also attempt to compete for a conference championship i think
38:14
that's a that's a good ratio of what you want you know a little bit of that sauce,
38:19
they have they still have an effective offense coming in this year based off
38:22
of the numbers and transfers coming in not super deep on defense but i think
38:25
they'll be able to pull it together and truly this is their this is the year to make the splash,
38:30
um is kind of what i wrote down and and the splash meaning is they're going to compete and,
38:37
you know it's nice having you and lb at home because that might give them a
38:40
little bit of an edge, albeit UNLV is a fantastic football team.
38:43
I do think they beat North Dakota State, and I'm going to take the over.
38:49
Yeah, they could beat North Dakota State. That's a long ways down the road,
38:53
so we'll see how that shakes out.
38:55
I think that UNLV game in Hawaii is must-watch TV.
39:02
A, let's see if UNLV is where they're at. They probably are.
39:08
If Hawaii could sneak a UNLV win or scare the living daylights out of them,
39:14
I think that'll set them up.
39:17
Because now they just played. They have a bye. No, they play UNLV right now, don't they?
39:24
Yeah, they play them next Saturday at home. And you're correct.
39:28
That's a big game. That's a big week one game.
39:31
And you're right. Depending on what the time is, as long as it's not the same
39:34
time as the Wyoming game, at least I'll be flipping back and forth.
39:37
There you go. But that would be a phenomenal game to watch.
39:41
And you're correct. I guess I didn't think about that. You come out of this stretch 2-1 now.
39:46
UNLV, New Mexico State, followed by a bye week.
39:49
You get a five-gram strips and another bye week and then four games to finish the season.
39:53
The season's definitely not lost. Obviously, they could still win the Mountain
39:56
West, and I think that next Saturday will tell us an awful lot about that.
40:00
You're correct about that, Wes. That'll be a good game. Yeah.
40:03
I wonder what they will do when they come to Wyoming. Will they come to Wyoming soon?
40:08
Off of a bye, will they come there making four or five days beforehand?
40:16
Or will they just show up on Friday, play on Saturday, and leave?
40:19
I think if they're not in Laramie on Monday, I think that's rather foolish,
40:25
especially coming off of a bye week, if not even before that. I do know this.
40:30
When I was in high school, Wyoming hosted Texas, and the game was on a Saturday,
40:37
and Texas was in Laramie the Sunday night after playing Saturday.
40:44
So they played Saturday and then on Sunday they flew to Laramie and they were in Laramie for a week.
40:49
I just think if you're going to play in Laramie, that's an exceedingly smart thing to do.
40:54
Not every school has that ability, but coming off of a bye week with the travel
40:59
schedule that Hawaii obviously pulls off every single year when your closest,
41:04
away game is, is what San Jose or San Diego state.
41:07
And even that's a not close, you know, in my, yeah, I don't know.
41:13
That's interesting. I might have to reach out to some people and see what Hawaii
41:17
does there that week. Cause I, I'd be in Laramie on Monday if that was me.
41:21
I just think that's the smartest way to go about it. Get more acclimated,
41:24
chill, do absolutely nothing, film some light practicing, some stretching,
41:29
whatever, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,
41:32
maybe get a couple of really good practices in and then a, you know,
41:35
a Friday walkthrough and then play Saturday.
41:37
But yeah, that's a good point. I, they need to acclimate. That's for sure.
41:41
And where are we sitting here? September, September, September.
41:45
Was that the last week of September? So it probably won't be super cold,
41:50
but it has snowed in Laramie in September on games before. So we'll see.
41:55
I always did love it when Hawaii was coming to Wyoming like Thanksgiving week of the week before.
42:01
You know, I think they usually scheduled that on purpose that way,
42:03
but they didn't make it happen this year. So no, it'll be interesting.
42:07
I mean, it'll be, yeah, I, now that you say that, I actually don't even know
42:10
what to think of Hawaii until we see them play against UNLV next week.
42:15
Another longtime stall war at the Mountain West Conference is Air Force with
42:19
head coach Troy Calhoun entering his 20th season. He's 139-97 overall.
42:24
In 2025, they were 4-8, had a weak year last year, 3-5 in Mountain West play.
42:28
They beat Bucknell to start the season.
42:30
They then lost five straight at Utah State, Boise State, Hawaii,
42:34
Navy, and UNLV. They beat Wyoming at home.
42:37
They then lost to Army at home. They beat San Jose State on the road.
42:42
They lost at UConn, lost to New Mexico, and then they beat Colorado State to
42:45
end their season. In 2026, they open up September 5th against Duquesne FCS program.
42:52
They host North Dakota State, followed by a bye week.
42:54
They then play 10 games straight at Nevada versus Navy, at Northern Illinois,
42:59
at home against UNLV, at Wyoming, at home against UConn, at Army,
43:04
at home against San Jose State, at home against UTEP, and then at New Mexico.
43:08
Their win total is seven and a half.
43:10
You got Duquesne, Northern Illinois, UTEP.
43:16
I'm way under, way under on Air Force. I don't know.
43:20
Seven and a half with that schedule. And I'm not saying they won't win some
43:24
of those games because I think they will.
43:26
But I don't think eight wins is coming out of this. If you only lose to,
43:32
I don't think they'll beat Army or Navy. I don't think they'll beat UNLV.
43:36
And I don't think they'll beat New Mexico. So there's five losses right there.
43:40
I think they're going to gun for seven wins.
43:43
Yeah, this one was the hardest for me because they have good returning defense,
43:48
right? They still have some holes to fill.
43:50
Their offense is going to be
43:51
strong. But historically, Calhoun has not had back-to-back losing seasons.
43:57
So this is obviously the uptick from a 4-8 season last year.
44:01
Now, saying that continues or not, we don't know until it happens.
44:05
But hoping that they do have a little bit more production than they had last year.
44:10
And I still think with that improvement, we are looking at a 6-6 or a 7-5 Falcon
44:18
team. Hopefully they get a bowl game bid.
44:21
Yeah, this is a difficult one for me too because of Coach Calhoun.
44:24
I just can't see him having two back-to-back losing seasons like that.
44:30
But the defense was not good last year at all.
44:34
And then I think based on what I read, They feel very comfortable with three
44:39
of their quarterbacks, and they're probably going to get back to more of a running
44:43
game than what they've done in the past.
44:45
It'll be interesting, though, because North Dakota State hasn't played against
44:49
Air Force, but the coach has.
44:52
So anyway, that will be interesting. I think that's an interesting matchup for
44:57
the North Dakota State players.
45:02
Versus Air Force. Yeah, that's a lot about both Air Force and North Dakota State
45:06
in that football game. It's nice that Eric Pierce is at home for that,
45:08
but anything can happen at this point.
45:12
And that's a good point Les just made. Obviously, Tim Paulsek is zero stranger
45:16
to the Mountain West Conference.
45:18
Obviously, we've got Northern Illinois and UTEP coming in, but he's familiar with everybody else.
45:23
So that's a good point. I hadn't thought about that. I should have thought about
45:26
that, and I didn't think it didn't go to the forefront of my mind like it should
45:30
have. But yeah, that would be a tough one. I think they're going bowling.
45:32
I think they're going bowling, but I don't see eight-plus wins here. there.
45:38
All right, we'll talk about another doormat in the conference here,
45:40
which not that I'm not rooting for him, but I just don't see it.
45:44
UTEP's coming in from Conference USA with hedge coach Scotty Walden entering
45:48
his third season. He's 5-19 overall. In 2025, they went 2-10, 1-7 in Conference USA.
45:54
They lost to Utah State to start the season. They beat FCS Tennessee Martin.
45:58
They then lost at Texas at home against Louisiana Monroe, at home against Louisiana
46:03
Tech, at home against Liberty.
46:04
They beat Sam Houston on the road. They then lost their last five at Kennesaw
46:08
State, at home against Jacksonville State, at Missouri State,
46:11
at home against New Mexico State, and then at Delaware.
46:14
In 2026, they open up September 4th at Oklahoma.
46:18
They then host FCS Texas Southern, then at Michigan, at home against Oregon
46:22
State, at New Mexico, at home against Nevada, at home against San Jose State, followed by a bye week.
46:28
Their last five games are at North Dakota State, at home against Hawaii,
46:31
at home against Wyoming.
46:32
They then go on the road their last two games at Air Force and at Northern Illinois and.
46:37
Before I say anything, UTEP and Wyoming and Hawaii used to be old WAC rivals
46:43
along with, I can't remember if San Jose State was in there.
46:46
Air Force was in and out of there. It used to be the Highline Conference,
46:50
or the Skyline Conference is what it used to be.
46:52
So this is actually a super cool old rivalry that I'm actually very pumped.
46:57
I'm pumped that UTEP is back in this mix, to be honest with you.
47:01
It's not a team that doesn't belong in the Mountain West. They very much do,
47:04
and they have been before in the old WAC and the old Skyline.
47:07
So I'm excited that UTEP is here.
47:09
I would very much even love to go watch a game in the Sun Bowl.
47:12
But for this season, 2026, their win total is 3.5, and I'm going the under on UTEP.
47:20
I think their ceiling could maybe be four wins. I just don't think that's the
47:24
most likely case scenario.
47:26
Yeah, I don't have a whole lot to say about UTEP other than it's cool that they
47:30
are back in this little mix of teams in the Mountain West Conference.
47:36
But overall, unless they've taken significant strides, I think they're looking at a two-win season.
47:43
You always hope for something a little bit better than that.
47:45
You never want a team to be that demoralized.
47:49
You just hope that they have a good time, I guess.
47:52
I guess I would think maybe they should drop to the FCS or I guess this is their...
48:00
Maybe this is their chance, I guess, is what they're thinking in terms of the
48:03
Mountain West. I'm not sure, but it doesn't look good for them.
48:07
Kind of a little bit like a University of Idaho situation where you're right
48:11
at the bottom of a conference so long, you switch conferences or you go independent
48:15
and kind of figure it out from there. And then before you know it,
48:19
they're back to the FCS. Yeah.
48:22
Especially in this day and age of the NIL and transfer portal,
48:26
I think it's difficult to get those guys. You might be able to pay somebody
48:30
some money, but if you get a guy that's pretty good, they're leaving UTEP to go somewhere else.
48:38
Them dropping, it's not a thought that I had had before, but I guess what I
48:41
would think on that route is if you go four or five seasons in this New Mountain
48:46
West and you get zero traction, you don't make it to any bowl games.
48:51
Yeah. Yeah, it's probably time. It's probably time. And honestly,
48:56
this is going to sound stupid.
48:57
I haven't been there, but I want to go to the Sun Bowl really bad.
49:01
The Sun Bowl could rival Washington Grizzly Stadium as an FCS venue. It honestly could.
49:07
Well, like I told Les, with Idaho dropping to the FCS, the whole mood has changed,
49:14
around the city of Moscow, right?
49:15
You get a couple wins under your belt, you get ranked in the FCS,
49:19
and the culture changes a little bit. And you can do the same thing in El Paso. Very much so, yeah.
49:26
Yep, that actually wouldn't be not cool.
49:31
But we'll see what happens here in the next few years with them.
49:35
Move on to San Jose State. The head coach, Ken Niamatololo, entering his third
49:39
season. He's 10-15 overall. In 2025, they went 3-9, 2-6 Mountain West play.
49:43
They lost to Central Michigan to open their season.
49:46
They lost at Texas. They beat Idaho in a nail-biter. They lost at Stanford.
49:51
They then beat New Mexico.
49:52
They lost at Wyoming, at Utah State, beat Hawaii at home.
49:56
Then they lost their last four at home against Air Force, at Nevada,
49:59
at San Diego State, and at home against Fresno State.
50:02
2026 they opened last night against usc which went about how you thought it would 42 to 26,
50:09
they are at eastern michigan next week who beat sacramento state last night
50:13
they host cal poly the next week after they host fresno state then they have a bye,
50:18
then their next eight games are at hawaii at home against wyoming at utep at
50:22
nevada at home against new mexico at home against northern illinois
50:26
at air force and then at home against unlv and at home against north dakota
50:31
State. Their win total is four and a half.
50:34
I'm actually on the over with San Jose State.
50:37
I don't know if they're going bowling, but I do think they pull off five wins this season.
50:43
Yeah, this was a huge question mark for me because the vibes are high with the
50:48
Spartans, but the stats say otherwise.
50:51
According to the SP Plus table, they have a 24% returning production rating,
50:57
which puts them at number 137 of all FBS schools. And we know what that number
51:04
means. You're dead last.
51:06
So whether or not, you know, I know traditionally, you know,
51:10
Coach Neil Montalolo has done really good with Navy, and at the time,
51:14
you've got limited selections, and maybe you can turn this around a little bit.
51:18
I have them in kind of the bottom third of the conference. So what that looks
51:24
like in the win column, I think it's kind of right there in that four or that five mark.
51:28
Unfortunately, or fortunately, I should say, if they get into the bye week at
51:33
two and two and scrap something together, you might be able to pop one against Northern Illinois.
51:41
You maybe, you know, get one against UTEP and that puts you at four.
51:45
Where's that fifth win coming from?
51:48
Well, if there's a team that's capable of sneaking wins out that you're like,
51:51
what the heck just happened at San Jose? I mean, heck, they beat Nevada and
51:54
Hawaii last year. You know what I mean? It's possible.
51:57
Yeah, I think he does a really good job. So there's something that's going on there.
52:03
And at the same time, they scored 26 points against USC.
52:07
So I don't know if that speaks highly of them. I don't know if that speaks lowly of USC. I'm not sure.
52:13
Well, they were all second-half points, 23 of them in the fourth quarter.
52:18
So you got to think that USC was kind of getting some of their main folks off
52:23
the field is what I would assume.
52:25
Shouldn't matter. Right. No, I know, I know it shouldn't matter,
52:30
but still, you know what I mean? That's, that's what I would have done if I was them.
52:33
And they lost a lot of people out of the portals too.
52:36
I mean, I think, I think Montana had, has a guy from San Jose and I'm not too
52:43
sure that Southern Utah didn't have somebody from San Jose. So they took some
52:47
significant portal losses.
52:49
They're going to wing it because that's just what the coach is going to do,
52:52
and I think they're going to be able to do that. But then can they eliminate sacks?
52:56
Can they create third-down conversions?
53:01
And can they keep it from the other team? So I'm not sure how San Jose will actually be.
53:07
You know, and that before the bye, I mean, obviously I hope they don't beat
53:12
Fresno State, But, I mean, can they beat Eastern Michigan and Cal Poly?
53:17
I think so. I think Eastern Michigan is going to be a little bit of a test only
53:21
because you're playing it on the road.
53:22
But I think because of, you know, who Coach Ken is and the team that he has
53:29
put together, I think they can do it.
53:32
Yeah, so 2-2 might be the ceiling and 1-3 is the... Mm-hmm.
53:37
And then you're probably not going to be... As much as, you know,
53:39
based on this weekend and watching Cal Poly play, it kind of shocked me a little
53:42
bit with how they played, but I know we'll talk about that a little bit more next week.
53:47
You know, Cal Poly's going to score points, but I don't think they're going to beat the Spartans.
53:53
And then it becomes difficult. You're at Hawaii, so you go to Hawaii,
53:58
and then you turn around, and you at least host Wyoming. That's the way to do it.
54:05
Which will actually be kind of a tough game for Wyoming, actually. Very much.
54:09
The height and coolness down to the heat.
54:13
Right, right. All right, well, we'll talk about the last Mountain West team,
54:17
after we close out the Mountain West Conference. We will talk about Austin's
54:20
beloved Boise State Broncos, and then we will talk about the Fresno State Bulldogs as well.
54:26
And we've already covered Coach Ryder Meyer with Nevada, So we'll cover Coach Tucker Mow at Fresno.
54:32
We'll go that route with it. But UNLV running Rebels under head coach Dan Mullen
54:36
entering his second season. He's 10-4 overall. They were 10-4 last year,
54:40
6-3 in the Mountain West.
54:41
They beat Idaho State to start the season. They won at Sam Houston,
54:45
at home against UCLA, at Miami, Ohio, at Wyoming, and at home against Air Force.
54:49
They then lost at Boise State.
54:51
They lost to New Mexico at home. They lost to New Mexico.
54:54
They lost those two games back-to-back. They then won at Colorado State at home
54:59
against Utah State in over two overtimes.
55:02
They beat Hawaii at home. They won at Nevada. They lost at Boise State in the
55:07
Mountain West Conference Championship game.
55:09
And then I was extremely disappointed. They lose to Ohio 17-10 in the Frisco
55:14
Bowl. In 2026, they opened last night.
55:18
And I definitely don't have that right. They don't open against Idaho State.
55:22
They opened against Memphis, and they also, I know Memphis is pretty good,
55:28
and they showed it last night because they beat UNLV 27-21.
55:33
I'm a little bit of a heartbreaker there, and I don't have this.
55:39
I just definitely just didn't change their schedule here on the document,
55:42
but I have it pulled up right here.
55:44
They are at Hawaii next week, then they are at North Texas the week after that.
55:50
They then have a bye week, then they're at Akron, they then host Cal,
55:56
they are at home against North Dakota State, at Air Force, at home against Northern Illinois.
56:02
At home against Wyoming, at New Mexico, and then they are at San Jose State
56:07
and finish the season out at home against Nevada.
56:10
Their win total is eight and a half, and I'm wondering, I'm sitting here thinking
56:15
to myself, November 14th hosting New Mexico, that could be a pretty big game.
56:22
Yeah, I think, you know, based off of, the schedule says everything.
56:25
That tough road schedule is going to be a big hurdle for them.
56:30
But with who is returning and what Dan Mullen has done and has obviously created
56:35
a great culture down there in Las Vegas, there's a lot of potential.
56:40
And I truly have UNLV as finishing as one of the top two teams in the conference
56:46
this year. They just have to keep that same fighting spirit.
56:50
I've not been buying the UNLV he's been selling for the last couple years.
56:56
You got to get on the bus at some point. I suppose at this point in time,
57:01
they're probably going to end up being pretty decent, if not winning it.
57:07
At the same time, I'd love to see them. They don't play North Dakota State.
57:12
Yes, they do. Sorry. I screwed up the document there, and that's last year's schedule.
57:19
They host North Dakota State October 10th okay.
57:25
Yeah, I think they're going to be good.
57:29
We'll see how good UCLA is with all their stuff. I think that's going to be
57:33
a huge gain for both programs, for UNLV to beat the brand of UCLA.
57:39
And then we'll see if UCLA can come back and just beat those people from UNLV.
57:46
You know, that's traditionally not been a great gain, but I think that'll be
57:52
a huge gain for both programs.
57:54
Yeah, and I mean, at this point, they have three nine-win seasons in a row.
57:58
Do you think they keep the same tempo at this point? I'm on the over.
58:04
I'm taking the over on them. Yep, just the same. I mean, I hope they lose to UCLA.
58:11
I think going to Miami of Ohio is going to be a difficult task.
58:17
I hope they lose. They go to Boise State. I hope they lose that one.
58:21
They host Hawaii. And then Utah State. I don't know.
58:26
I'm hoping that they have four losses.
58:29
All right, well, so out of the Mountain West Conference, out of the whole Mountain
58:33
West Conference here, we came back.
58:38
I do still think that Nevada is my exceeds, the most likely to exceed expectations.
58:46
Each of your thoughts on a team that is the most likely to exceed expectations.
58:51
Yeah, Nevada was on my list.
58:54
Yeah, I would say Nevada also. That really is the only team that really has
58:58
a chance to really exceed.
59:00
I just can't see San Jose State in exceeding expectations. I think if Wyoming
59:05
gets to six, that's pretty good for them, maybe five.
59:11
Wyoming was my second choice in that category for a team that might exceed expectations there.
59:18
So as far as most likely to not meet expectations, I'm going to go with Hawaii.
59:26
Yeah, that was my choice as well. I think Hawaii is the most volatile at this point.
59:31
They have everything in front of them, and I think they can really do it,
59:35
but they're kind of a fragile thing right now.
59:40
So what about North Dakota State? That's my second choice. Yeah.
59:48
If they go 2 or 1, are they exceeding expectations? I think so,
59:54
yes. I think if they are number 2 or number 1, they're exceeding expectations.
59:58
I think, realistically, they will be 3 or 4.
1:00:02
And I think anything 5 or lower is not meeting expectations in the final standings of the conference.
1:00:08
Yeah. I don't think you're going to like my prediction for conference rankings then.
1:00:15
I can't see him dropping below four. No, me neither. But I could see him also going to number two.
1:00:24
But for me, the jury's out on him in terms of where are they going to trend
1:00:29
versus where they were trending last year.
1:00:32
Where is it when they get into the meat of their schedule? All right.
1:00:36
So we're kind of wrapped up there. We'll talk about these last two teams.
1:00:39
And hey, we're almost done here. We're almost done. So you can hold your horses for a second.
1:00:44
All right. Boise state, the Boise state Broncos head coach, Spencer Danielson
1:00:49
entering his third full season. He took over a few years ago, mid season.
1:00:54
They're 24-8 overall, and in 2025, they were 9-5, 7-2 in the Mountain West Conference.
1:01:01
They lost at South Florida to start the season. They then beat Eastern Washington,
1:01:04
beat Air Force, beat App State, lost at Notre Dame.
1:01:07
They won against New Mexico, UNLV, and Nevada.
1:01:11
They lost at home to Fresno. They lost at San Diego State.
1:01:15
They won against Colorado State, Utah State. They beat UNLV in the Mountain
1:01:19
West Championship game, and they lost to Washington in the LA Bowl.
1:01:24
2026, they are September 5th at Oregon. Then they host Memphis,
1:01:28
which just proved to be a ridiculously tough team against UNLV.
1:01:31
They host South Dakota. They're at Western Michigan, at home against Utah State,
1:01:36
at Fresno State, followed by a bye week.
1:01:38
Then they're at Washington State, at home against Texas State,
1:01:41
at Colorado State, at home against Oregon State, at home against San Diego State,
1:01:46
and at Utah State to end the season. Their win total is eight and a half.
1:01:51
And I don't think you beat Oregon. Memphis is a toss-up. I'm going to go over.
1:01:57
I'm going to go over on the Boise State Broncos.
1:02:00
Yeah, I'm taking the over as well. Obviously, we still don't have a Heisman
1:02:04
candidate in running back, but with a healthy football team,
1:02:08
they're running the Pac-12.
1:02:10
Now, I think the Pac-12 right now is a little bit of a conundrum.
1:02:14
So if Boise State runs the conference, makes a good bid for the college football
1:02:21
playoff, but the conference in of itself is mediocre.
1:02:27
Are they still as good as what they look like on paper? I think that's kind
1:02:31
of the best-case-slash-worst-case scenario for them.
1:02:34
They have a lot of really good star returners coming back, both on the offensive
1:02:37
and defensive line side, missing a ton of receivers, but I think they picked
1:02:40
some pretty good ones up in the portal.
1:02:43
And moving forward, I think the culture that Spencer Danielson has incorporated,
1:02:49
has been super positive.
1:02:50
I think he's more of a player's coach, which is fantastic. He does have a fair
1:02:55
amount of retention when it comes to the transfer portal on top of getting good quality guys in.
1:03:00
So I think there is a lot of upside. I'm obviously taking the over for the Broncos,
1:03:05
but we'll see how the new Pac-12 looks because it's either going to be a good
1:03:10
decision, everybody looks good, and.
1:03:15
Solidifies itself as the best G6 conference. So what's their win total? Eight?
1:03:21
Eight and a half right now. Yeah, eight and a half. Yeah, I would take the over
1:03:24
on that too. I would say they're probably not going to beat Oregon.
1:03:28
And then, you know, like you say, you know, Memphis might be a toss-up.
1:03:32
Fresno beat them last year in Boise.
1:03:34
They put their quarterback out early, and they had some quarterback issues and some health issues.
1:03:40
And the one thing that's good is that's at Fresno this year.
1:03:43
So I guess we'll just see how they're playing ball by that point in time.
1:03:47
But let's say they were to drop Oregon and drop Fresno, then I can't see them
1:03:52
losing to anybody else on the schedule.
1:03:56
Maybe Memphis will host them.
1:03:58
We'll head over to Fresno and Fresno State with Coach Matt. And it's entering
1:04:03
his second season. He's 9-4 overall.
1:04:06
They were 9-4 last year, 5-3 in the Mountain West. They lost at Kansas to start the season.
1:04:11
They then beat Georgia Southern, won at Oregon State, won against FCS Southern. They won at Hawaii.
1:04:17
They beat Nevada at home. They lost at Colorado State and lost at home to San Diego State.
1:04:22
They won at Boise State, won at home against Wyoming.
1:04:25
They lost to Utah State at home. They then won at San Jose State and then beat
1:04:30
Miami of Ohio in the Arizona Bowl to end the season.
1:04:33
In 2026, they start their season September 4th at USC, at home against Sacramento
1:04:38
State, at San Jose State, and then at home against Rice to finish out non-conference play.
1:04:43
They're then at Washington State, at home against Boise State,
1:04:46
at San Diego State, followed by a bye.
1:04:49
Then they're at home against Oregon State, at Utah State, at Texas State,
1:04:53
at home against colorado state,
1:04:55
and then finish the season at home against san diego state i am 90 90 positive
1:05:01
i'm going to be at the washington state game when they go to pullman which would
1:05:04
be kind of a cool one to go to but win total for the fresno state bulldogs is six and a half,
1:05:09
that is where i'm at with the win total this might be a bit of a cop-out but
1:05:14
i will tell you which way i'm going with it,
1:05:16
if their offense doesn't get any better.
1:05:19
This is a tougher schedule than the mountain west was so if their offense doesn't
1:05:24
get any better I think I'm going under but slightly under at six wins I think
1:05:28
they're still going bowling because their defense will be that good but,
1:05:32
if not, if their offense does take a couple steps forward then I'm definitely on the over.
1:05:38
Yeah, in my most humble opinion, I think Fresno State is top three in the Pac-12.
1:05:44
I think there's a lot of upside with the team.
1:05:46
The running game is returning, if not improving.
1:05:50
And that defensive front is going to be a problem for most offenses.
1:05:55
So I like what they have. Hopefully EJ Warner shows some upside.
1:05:59
I know they started swapping quarterbacks a little bit. No, he's not there anymore.
1:06:03
Oh, he's not there anymore? Oh, I missed that. All right. Well, who knows?
1:06:07
Which is just fine yeah yeah he didn't really do anything last year that's why
1:06:11
i said that so cross our fingers we'll see what happens but like i said i think
1:06:16
i think they do finish top three at least in in the pack 12 they're going bowling and i have them at.
1:06:22
Seven to eight wins yeah i'm gonna go the over of course i'm hoping i'm hoping
1:06:28
for nine wins they have a chance to maybe not get as many wins and and still
1:06:32
be a better ball club than they were a year ago actually.
1:06:36
If you look at their wins and losses last year, I think that's a pretty accurate
1:06:43
picture of what college football is all about.
1:06:47
So they won at Oregon State in a game that probably maybe they should have lost.
1:06:54
And then they turn around, they beat Hawaii also at a game maybe they should have lost.
1:07:00
And then they play Colorado State in a game And they obviously should win and lost.
1:07:06
And then lost to Utah State and then won in San Jose and then,
1:07:11
you know, in a battle, beat Miami with Ohio in the bowl.
1:07:15
I think that is a microcosm of college football. You win, some of those teams
1:07:19
win, and then they turn around and lose some.
1:07:23
And so, anyway, I think their defense has a chance to maybe be better than they
1:07:28
were a year ago, being the second year.
1:07:31
And then the offense, the running backs are back.
1:07:35
The offensive line has to be better the starting quarterback the guy that got
1:07:39
named to be the starter it was out of maryland he's 6'3 230 235 pounds he's
1:07:45
a man and then they also have a very they had a dogfight at quarterback so.
1:07:51
We're hoping that there's a there's a jump there in the in the offense the main
1:07:57
thing is and that's what they had a tough time with last year is just turning
1:08:01
the ball over used to eliminate or reduce the turnovers you have a chance,
1:08:07
saying the defense can be better than last year is pretty wild statement and
1:08:11
i'm uh i'm excited for it i they were very good last year so
1:08:15
the fact they'll even be better that's pretty awesome so i'm excited to watch
1:08:18
the bulldogs this year i'm excited to get back here next week for our week zero
1:08:22
and one episode to get back to our normal uh normal uh weekly uh
1:08:27
formatted show and we'll be back at it with some hunting adventures and some
1:08:31
college football every week and a verse for the week to take away.
1:08:34
And we're off and running, gentlemen.
1:08:36
It's the best time of year. I know I feel like it's a little bit of a broken
1:08:40
record, but the fall has always been one of my favorites.
1:08:45
We were at the cabin this weekend, and you can actually, today felt like fall
1:08:50
up there in Polson, and then actually there's a few leaves that have just started
1:08:56
to turn. It's hard to imagine.
1:09:00
Yeah, we did a church picnic this afternoon, and a couple people got baptized
1:09:03
in the lake, and I wore one of those smart wool button-ups because it was a
1:09:08
little chilly, and it made my heart happy deep down.
1:09:11
So I appreciate you, gentlemen, and we'll be back here next week.
1:09:15
All right, you take care. Oh, hey, go Pirates, too. Go Pirates, baby. Go.
1:09:21
Brawds.