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Bitcoin Oversold?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Is bitcoin over sold today. We're going to be breaking
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: it down for you and give you some insights to
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: all of that. Before we get started, I do want
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• 0:40
  Speaker 1: let's get into it. I want to talk about this
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: real quick, and that is bitcoin surging past sixty five K.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: So many people would say, all right, is this the
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: rebound that we have been looking for? Because we are
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: getting some productive, some productive talks out of not only
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: what's going on with Iram, but I think in general
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: people in the market starting to look at this. Maybe
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: we could see an exit happening very soon. I want
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to go to a clip real quick because this will
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: get into Lynn Alden talking about is bitcoin over sold
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: right now or is this just on a bum take
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: No, DeFi NFTs icos. That kind of thing is just
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: in general, it is not as big of a market
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: as people thought. That industry is kind of gradually stagnating.
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: It really has.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: Mistagnating in twenty twenty one. So I think I think
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: that bitcoin has that whole kind of broader thing weighing
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: down on it. And then obviously there's been concerns around
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: some of these levered bitcoin treasure companies, which sometimes I
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: think are overdone, but some of those are valid concerned.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: And then the other factor is that a lot of
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: investors that kind of viewed bitcoin or broadly crypto as
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: the fastest horse in the race have shifted toward AI.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: So just the sharp rise in chip stocks in hyperscalers,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: obviously the spacexipo that's pulled a lot of capital that
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: is otherwise you know, maybe seeking you know, kind of
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: view bitcoin to his tech has been pulled in that direction.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: So until that kind of cools off a little bit.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: I think bitcoin could be some pressured, but I think
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin's fundamental is so good, and it's kind of in
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: the bottom, you know, ten to fifteen percent of its
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: kind of historical other sentiment indicators. It's kind of near
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  Speaker 2: the lower end of a lot of its historical indicators.
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  Speaker 1: All right. So what you see there from Lynn Alden
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  Speaker 1: is that her belief is really on the core center
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: of what bitcoin is really about. And she's always been
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: a bitcoiner, and I think when you listen to what
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: she's saying, you understand a couple of things, and that
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  Speaker 1: is that look at this in comparison to previous markets.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: And I'll just give you an example right here, Bitcoin's
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  Speaker 1: rainbow chart. This has fallen below the fire sales zone.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Let me expand that for you guys. We haven't seen
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  Speaker 1: this kind of dip before. In fact, it's very very
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: close to below fire zone levels, and it usually stays
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: here for just a bit and then starts to move up.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: You see the sideways action that we saw of course
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: back in December, et cetera. But the point being is
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: is this a bypoint if you look at sixty to
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: sixty five as the range. Many people may look at
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  Speaker 1: this in twelve months, eighteen months and say, man, that
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  Speaker 1: was the sixteen to five range for bitcoin. I think
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  Speaker 1: the real question is is do you believe in the asset?
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  Speaker 1: If you do, if you're listening to whether it's the
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  Speaker 1: fundamentals that drives you, the aspect of where this is
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: and truly could be digital gold or the whole component around.
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  Speaker 1: Is this the asset class that can keep pace with AI?
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  Speaker 1: Then it is over sold. But the real question is
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  Speaker 1: this right here, you look at global liquidity. Remember this.
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  Speaker 1: We've talked about this, I think with almost every analyst
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: out there, and almost everyone had been pointing to the
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  Speaker 1: whole idea of global liquidity being a correlation to where
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: bitcoin and the crypto markets would be going. That of course,
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  Speaker 1: has completely fallen apart, and mostly because this is a
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  Speaker 1: pivot in terms of liquidity into what even Lynn was
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  Speaker 1: talking about, and that is AI and of course the
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  Speaker 1: alternative innovation stocks that are out there. Bitcoin is below
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  Speaker 1: it's twenty twenty one top of sixty nine K, but
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: you're so greedy that you're waiting for another thirty percent
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: draw down in the best performing macro asset of all time.
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  Speaker 1: That comes in from a shift.
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  Speaker 3: Interesting.
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  Speaker 1: These levels look so obvious in hindsight, just like you
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: guys looked at fifteen to twenty K buys from twenty
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: two would seem obvious now even though at that time
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  Speaker 1: you used to still be well above that bottom of
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  Speaker 1: sixteen to five. So I think that is the matchup,
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  Speaker 1: and I think the real question is when does the
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  Speaker 1: rotation occur. Just to give an example of the draw
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  Speaker 1: downs that we've seen, these are long and can be
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: long bare cycles, and you can kind of tell here's
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: where we are right now. And it's not a bad
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  Speaker 1: position if you're looking at long term holding of crypto assets,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: especially something like bitcoin. But there is room and I
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: think that will be the thing that everybody has to consider.
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  Speaker 1: How much room are you willing to try to wait
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: that out or miss the bottom and willing to pay that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, twenty percent premium on something if Bitcoin does
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: take a run. And in general, if you look back
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  Speaker 1: at history, this is on the weekly, this goes all
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  Speaker 1: the way back into twenty two, and this was the
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  Speaker 1: bottom of where bitcoin came in, and there was a
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  Speaker 1: couple of drawdown days that you have to kind of
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: look at. You had this one right here in June
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: of twenty two. You had this one right here in
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  Speaker 1: November before it bottomed out at the sixteen to five
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  Speaker 1: range ratio that everybody has been kind of looking back on.
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  Speaker 1: And that's the comparison that everybody's looking at now. Is
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  Speaker 1: that where bitcoin is today, because it puts a lot
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  Speaker 1: of pressure on the rest of the crypto assets, including ethereum, XRB, Solana,
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  Speaker 1: all of those will dovetail into our bitcoin's market, all right.
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  Speaker 1: So one other catalyst to look at is the situation
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  Speaker 1: of what's happening with Iran is are we in the war?
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  Speaker 1: Are we out of the war? Trump's position right now,
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  Speaker 1: I think is very critical. But does the market think
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: it's critical? Is the question. Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: Trump's made it really clear he wan's out right, and
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  Speaker 4: so he's willing to take a political hit, even if
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  Speaker 4: he'll try to spin it. That's it a win, right,
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  Speaker 4: Let's pay to get out and let's we're gonna piss
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  Speaker 4: off Israel a little bit. That's okay, We're getting out
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  Speaker 4: because I've got an election midterms in November, and nobody
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  Speaker 4: likes this war. And so that's the calculus he's making.
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  Speaker 4: And the market's like that calculus. From a market perspective,
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  Speaker 4: the war is over, will Wash hike rate this year?
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  Speaker 3: So i'mbarish on that. I don't think he hikes riggs
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  Speaker 3: this yet.
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  Speaker 4: I don't either. I think he talks tough, and I
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  Speaker 4: think he gets kind of bailed out because I think
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  Speaker 4: crude coming down. You know, seventy five dollars crew helps
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  Speaker 4: a lot.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, peace agreement with iron Holtz bullish or bearish.
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  Speaker 4: You know, it's how we define it. I don't think
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  Speaker 4: it holds perfectly, but I think it holds enough that
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  Speaker 4: we're not seeing oil back over one hundred dollars.
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  Speaker 1: All right, Well that's a pretty big statement, not oil
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  Speaker 1: going back to one hundred bucks. But I think the
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  Speaker 1: key here is that the market has priced in this
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  Speaker 1: war being over, and I don't know if that is
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  Speaker 1: completely the case right now. The US, of course, and
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  Speaker 1: what he's talking about here is Trump's positioning here. But
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  Speaker 1: the US has issued an Iranian General Oil Related License
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  Speaker 1: which allows them the production and also the sale of
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  Speaker 1: Iranian oil. Again, so that's a big deal. It's also
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  Speaker 1: a huge capitulation I think from what Trump has been
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  Speaker 1: positioning for. That just shows you how active he is
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  Speaker 1: in trying to get out of this war. Other things, though,
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  Speaker 1: are this right here? And that is will he be
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  Speaker 1: let out without actually happen to stand up to Israel.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: This is the roadmap, because it won't start until Iran
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  Speaker 1: refuses to implement any commitments if Israel doesn't fully withdraw
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  Speaker 1: from the Southern Lebanon and fighting stops there. And this
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  Speaker 1: of course is Israel's Defense minister saying we will not
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  Speaker 1: withdraw and we are not giving up a single inch.
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  Speaker 1: That's a problem because I think Trump has already made
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  Speaker 1: it clear to Israel this needs to end. The problem
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  Speaker 1: is Israel doesn't believe that. Now the question I think
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  Speaker 1: going forward, does Trump put the pressure on If you
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  Speaker 1: think he's going to put the pressure on Israel, let
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: me know in the comments down below. I think that
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  Speaker 1: is the deciding factor for the Iranian agreement to hold.
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  Speaker 1: Going forward, let me go to a clip real quick,
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  Speaker 1: because this will get into Mark Cudmore talking about that
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  Speaker 1: peace maybe isn't fully priced in. Take a look.
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  Speaker 5: I think in the short term, where are we in
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  Speaker 5: terms of pricing? I think the market has a lot
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  Speaker 5: of cynicism about the deal, and that means that peace
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  Speaker 5: is not fully priced, which means if it doesn't break down,
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  Speaker 5: it can continue to be an extended, kind of small
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  Speaker 5: tail end of support. So I think that that's an
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  Speaker 5: important to emphasize that it's not fully priced, that we're
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  Speaker 5: going to have some kind of you know, continue going
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  Speaker 5: towards peace, that the breakdown possibility is there. On a
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  Speaker 5: bigger picture thing, where do we stanary oil? I think
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  Speaker 5: probably one of the biggest developments of twenty twenty six
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  Speaker 5: is that oil has gone from being perceived as one
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  Speaker 5: of the most important macro assets inputs in the world
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  Speaker 5: to people realizing that it's a lot less important than
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  Speaker 5: maybe they thought. I think that is a game changer
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  Speaker 5: for the kind of the macro guide book. It is
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  Speaker 5: no longer as influential in pricing every asset around the world.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: So he is right on that is that it hasn't
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: had much effect on the S and P five hundred
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: if you look at what's been going on in the
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: tech stocks, obviously with AI etc. But it has had
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  Speaker 1: some pressure on the macro side of things. And this
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: of course leads into the issue around inflation. If oil
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  Speaker 1: does stay above seventy, it's going to continue to put
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: energy at the forefront of inflation. That is one of
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: the big factors that, of course Kevin Walsh is trying
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: to deal with. And you've got the Bank of a
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: America now saying that it expects the FED to raise
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: rates three times guys three times in twenty twenty six.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Bank of America goes in. They think that it's going
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: to happen in September, October, and December for this to occur.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: I think there's only one thing that could still be happening,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: and that is we're still in Iran. If we're still
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: in Iran, could we see something like this. Maybe I
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: don't know that we could see three rates, but it
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: definitely could see a rate raise. The question though, is
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: if we get out, if we start to see an
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: alleviation of pressure on a macro side of things, And
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: I think if we start to see any indicator coming
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: from Worsh's new data sets, supposedly they're coming at us,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: we don't know where they're going to come from, where
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: that data is coming from. But let's assume that the
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  Speaker 1: Iranian war is over. We've positioned to where we have
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  Speaker 1: below seventy oil and you've got a position where you
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: have maybe new FED data that is going to be
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: favorable for possibly even a ray cut. I don't know
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: if that's going to happen, but it gives wash a
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Lite a little bit of a pathway if he can
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: actually get there with the rest of these macro environment
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Let's go over to polymarket real quick and kind of
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: see right here, here's the rate hike possibility that comes
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: in October off of polymarket. It bounced right here. This
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: of course came from last week's FOMC meeting, where we
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: get all these new revelations I think from Kevin Warsh,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: both on data, how they're going to deal with the market,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: the policy side of things, what it looks like in
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: terms of inflation, whether or not they're going to look
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: at the two percent target, the communication layer that's going
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: to be lessened coming out of the FED. All of
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: those things I think attributed to this expansion up to
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: where we are right now at a fifty five percent
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: chance of a rate hike. Further into that, you've got
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Goldman Zachs saying that there's now fifteen percent chance of
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: a recession. I feel like there has always been a
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: fifteen percent chance, but it had previously said there was
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: a twenty five percent chance, so maybe they see it
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: on the other side where Bank of America sees it
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: on the high side.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: Here we go.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: We got the largest IPO in history is down eighteen
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: percent of this course of SpaceX coming in. It dropped
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: for the third straight session on Monday, falling from two
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: twenty five to one eighty five. But remember this thing
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: open at around one thirty. Only four percent of shares
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: are currently tradable, with a remaining ninety six percent locked
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: until December. Also, there's a big unlock coming up in August,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: so I anticipate that a lot of people watching for
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: that one as well. The packs are now targeting Maryland
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: and New York primaries, of course, as Clarity faces a
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: critical week ahead around the July recess. And this is
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: the concern I have with Clarity right now. I know
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: many of you guys are thinking, are we going to
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: get this or not. I feel less and less likely
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: that this is going to go through if you look
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: at the poly market on it. And I shouldn't say
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: go through. I should say in this current session, twenty
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: twenty six could still six, could still rise, but coming
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: after the midterms, more likely will be the case, and
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: that will most likely push into twenties twenty seven, currently
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: dropping to its lowest point really since all the way
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: back here, which was in January of this year. Guys,
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: So think about that right now, holding at forty five
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: percent of a chance to get done. Well, last question
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: right here, this is where the money has been going.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: This is Micron, guys. Now, if you don't know who
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Micron is, they basically are a chip manufacturer and data
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: manufacturer for storage. You probably if you know what an
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: nv ME drive is. These airs are the ones that
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: make those or many of them. This company is now
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: the fourteenth largest company in the world, and a lot
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: of this AI money, I think is starting to rotate
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: into Micron. This chart has continued to fly, so it's
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: one to watch because is there a rotation cycle that
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: could be running, meaning what would be next if you're
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: looking for, you know, not the picks and shovels of AI, now,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: we're looking for maybe the money for AI, which is crypto.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: So a lot of opportunities here. Matt Hogan comes on
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: and he says, this market uncertainty is the issue. Take
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: You could buy AI stocks which double every day and
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: boring companies like Micron become trillion dollar behemo. Jensen is
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: annointing new trillion dollar behemoths every day. I think it's
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: Marvel now or yeah, or you could buy crypto where
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: the poly market ods say there's a fifty percent chance
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: that the most important piece of crypto legislation will fail
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: in Congress, and that's just a hard choice to make, right, Like,
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: the market hates uncertainty more than it hates bad news,
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: and that is actually uncertainty. I think we'll be better
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: off when we get past the Clarity Act because it's
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: the sort of damoiclets hanging over crypto. And I do
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: think it's keeping money out of the market. It's one
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: of the one of the major things that keeping keeping
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: people from hellcaing. And from a narrative standpoint, it's like,
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: I'm tired of talking about it.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: All right, So I'm kind of on the fence as
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: to whether it's keeping money out of the mark. I
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: think the FED uncertainty is probably more, and to Matt's point,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: uncertainty in general is definitely there. I look at the
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: macro uncertainty, which of course is driven out of what's
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: happening in Iran, and then I think clarity now based
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: on what we're seeing and hearing, maybe has less and
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: less of an impact, but at the same time, it
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: could be an impact for the midterms, meaning a lot
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: of people could start to go into single issue voting
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: even at the midterms and really understanding that. So it
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: still has a lot of power on Wall Street, and
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: it has a lot of power on what's happening in DC.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: So be on the lookout, guys. This is going to
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: be a big, big summer going forward because we are
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: leading into the midterms. Once we get past this July
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: fourth push, that of course starts to put things into
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: a new, hopefully a new macro cycle that will change
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: things up here in the market. If you like this video,
• 15:55
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• 15:58
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• 16:00
  Speaker 3: The link is in the description.