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Ukraine flipped the script & invaded Russia - what's next? · Kvetch & Release

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  Speaker 1: Welcome back to AM eight hundred KLW. Reports of Ukraine's
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  Speaker 1: doom have been greatly exaggerated. This is the latest piece
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  Speaker 1: from columnist Adam zvo. It is in the line. You
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  Speaker 1: can check it out at readthline dot CAA. It is
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  Speaker 1: another day of power outages. Adam, you are in Ukraine
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  Speaker 1: right now. We were supposed to be talking live on
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  Speaker 1: air right now, but you said no, We've got to
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  Speaker 1: do a quick pre record because we're going to be
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  Speaker 1: going out of the block of power that we can
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  Speaker 1: rely on here in Ukraine. But regardless, power outages are
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  Speaker 1: a regular course of business for you. We've dealt with
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  Speaker 1: that before. What's changing, though, are these reports of the
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  Speaker 1: doom the fall of Ukraine, which has not manifested. In fact,
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  Speaker 1: we're watching a resurgent Ukraine in making incursions into Russia.
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  Speaker 1: What's going on right now these days, Adam?
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  Speaker 2: Well, so earlier this month, Ukraine made a surprise incursion
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  Speaker 2: into Russia's Quotesk province, which is just by assuming in
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  Speaker 2: the northeast. Essentially, there was a lightly defended part of
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  Speaker 2: the border where rampant corruption had undermined attempts to build fortifications,
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  Speaker 2: and the Ukrainians realized that this area was underdefended, and
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  Speaker 2: so without telling anyone, allies or enemies, they gathered hundreds,
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  Speaker 2: if not thousands, of soldiers, broke through those lines and
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  Speaker 2: managed to occupy about one thousand square kilometers of Russian territory.
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  Speaker 2: In the process, they captured hundreds of Russian soldiers and
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  Speaker 2: forced the evacuation of approximately two hundred thousand Russian civilians
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  Speaker 2: from the border area in that region. And this has
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  Speaker 2: completely changed the narrative about the war and illustrates the
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  Speaker 2: critical value of Russia of Western weapons in determining whether
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine wins or loses this war.
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  Speaker 1: The concern was, of course, that if Ukraine became more aggressive,
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  Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, would respond in kind with
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  Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, fire and fury, wipe out the world. That
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  Speaker 1: hasn't manifested.
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  Speaker 2: No, and this is the thing, is that Putin has
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  Speaker 2: waived the threat of nuclear weapons. And you know, spoken
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  Speaker 2: about red lines at the very beginning of the war,
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  Speaker 2: but most of these red lines seem to be non existent.
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  Speaker 2: For example, he said that he was going to escalate
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  Speaker 2: the conflict and potentially initiate nuclear war if the West
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  Speaker 2: gave long rage weapons like Kimars that didn't happen, right,
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  Speaker 2: So these are mostly empty threats. If you want to
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  Speaker 2: stop Russian aggression, in Russian expansionism, you need to respond
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  Speaker 2: with power, not with weakness, because this is a mafia
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  Speaker 2: state and this is the language that they understand now.
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  Speaker 2: Because people believe that Army Ukraine was futile or that
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  Speaker 2: it could potentially escalate the war. Ukraine was robbed of
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  Speaker 2: Western support for six months. Why I wouldn't say rob deprived,
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  Speaker 2: Rather so a click of pro Russian republicans managed to
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  Speaker 2: hold up further a to Ukraine for the period of
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  Speaker 2: six months ending in about April. So during that six
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  Speaker 2: month period the situation got really really bad, so air
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  Speaker 2: defense systems ran out of ammunition. As results, Russia was
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  Speaker 2: able to bomb cities far away from the front lines
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  Speaker 2: with near impunity. As a result of that, half this
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  Speaker 2: country's electrical power generating capacity was destroyed, so we had
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  Speaker 2: really bad blackouts in May and June, and then they
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  Speaker 2: were forced. The Ukrainians were forced to abandon a few
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  Speaker 2: strongholds in the Donetsk region and as a result, Russia
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  Speaker 2: is now advancing in that area. In fact, in April
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  Speaker 2: and May, the Russians came and tried to do another
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  Speaker 2: second invasion, a second siege of Hotkif, which is Ukraine's
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  Speaker 2: second largest city. It's in the east, it's forty kilometers
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  Speaker 2: from the Russian border, and they were concerns that the
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  Speaker 2: city would be besieged or been taken. But then in
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  Speaker 2: mid April or late April, the American weapons start to
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  Speaker 2: flow again, and very quickly the tides of what were changed,
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  Speaker 2: and everyone knew that Ukraine would be able to stop
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  Speaker 2: these Russian incursions, but no one, no one imagined that
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine would have the audacity and and and and the
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  Speaker 2: I guess cunning strategic mind to go and actually invade
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  Speaker 2: and occupy parts of Russia.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's been really interesting watching over the
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  Speaker 1: past couple of days the situation as it continues to unfold.
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  Speaker 1: The United States obviously caught very flat footed on this one.
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  Speaker 1: The United Kingdom responded first by saying, yep, this this happened,
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  Speaker 1: and it looks it looks good, it looks like it worked.
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  Speaker 1: And the US, obviously, not having been told, had to
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  Speaker 1: come out and sort of meely mouthed support it because
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  Speaker 1: Ukraine is an ally but also you know upset that
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  Speaker 1: they went and did something that obviously the US doesn't want,
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  Speaker 1: but that speaks to the precariousness this situation. It's been
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  Speaker 1: demonstrated that if you are in Ukraine, Ukraine can advance,
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  Speaker 1: Ukraine can push back against Russia. And it makes you
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  Speaker 1: question just how much longer does this need to go
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  Speaker 1: on in the state that it is, where it could
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  Speaker 1: probably get wrapped up fairly quickly if Ukraine was just
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  Speaker 1: equipped with all of the tools and resources that it
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  Speaker 1: needed to end this.
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  Speaker 2: Well. There are some concerns amongst Ukrainians, at least the
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  Speaker 2: ones that I know that the West is providing enough
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  Speaker 2: weapons for Ukraine not to lose, but not providing enough
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  Speaker 2: weapons for Ukraine to win, because the West seems to
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  Speaker 2: be playing a very careful game here. On one hand,
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  Speaker 2: it would be disastrous for Ukraine to fall to the Russians.
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  Speaker 2: On the other hand, if Russia were to collapse, that
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  Speaker 2: could destabilize the world. Right What you don't want is
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  Speaker 2: put In being executed in the streets and then you
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  Speaker 2: know a warlord coming in his stead, or you don't want,
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  Speaker 2: for example, Russia to disintegrate into the multiple smaller states,
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  Speaker 2: each with their own arsenal of nuclear arms, or you
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  Speaker 2: don't want, for example, China to annex East Siberia if
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  Speaker 2: Russia falls politically. So they're playing a careful game, and
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  Speaker 2: it's very frustrating for people in Ukraine because we wish
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  Speaker 2: that they would provide arms it a bit more aggressively,
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  Speaker 2: a bit more assertively, because it's really difficult being in
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  Speaker 2: this limbo.
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  Speaker 1: So what does this do to Russia? I mean, it's
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  Speaker 1: not a huge amount of territory that Ukraine has seized,
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  Speaker 1: but I have to imagine that for Russians themselves that
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  Speaker 1: it's if they're even hearing about what's actually occurring in
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  Speaker 1: the southern region there, I've got to imagine it's got
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  Speaker 1: to be a pretty symbolic and psychic shift for them
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  Speaker 1: to see a fracturing of their borders.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's the thing is that this total amount of
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  Speaker 2: land occupied by the Ukrainians is quite mini school. It
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  Speaker 2: amounts to only about three percent of the Kuskool Blast,
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  Speaker 2: but the symbolic value here is huge. We have to
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  Speaker 2: remember that Putin came into power in the nineteen ninety
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  Speaker 2: nine after almost a decade of post Soviet chaos, and
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  Speaker 2: what he promised the Russians was security and prosperity in
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  Speaker 2: exchange for a hollowing out of democratic institutions, and people
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  Speaker 2: were willing to bear the indignities of authority hearianism so
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  Speaker 2: long as Russia remained strong. So for Putin to then
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  Speaker 2: lose control of the Russian borders and to lose control
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  Speaker 2: of Russian land for the first time since the Second
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  Speaker 2: World War, like literally, you know, it's been seventy years
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  Speaker 2: or so since since Russia was occupied by a foreign power.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, that's a huge blow to his political and
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  Speaker 2: moral legitimacy. On top of that, this incursion really calls
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  Speaker 2: attention to corruption ongoing corruption in the Russian military. Corruption
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  Speaker 2: has been a huge problem in Russia's military for years,
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  Speaker 2: if not decades, and it's part of the reason why
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine was able to survive in twenty twenty two, because
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  Speaker 2: huge parts of the Russian military were like basically just
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  Speaker 2: stolen from so they didn't have nearly as many weapons
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  Speaker 2: as they thought. But now that Russians are learning that
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  Speaker 2: a border was actually you know, ill fortified because the
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  Speaker 2: contractors basically stole all the money and did nothing with it.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, once again, that raises questions about the competency
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  Speaker 2: of the Putin government as well as the competency of
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  Speaker 2: the military as a whole, and this of course has
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  Speaker 2: impacts on morale and impact on political stability in Moscow.
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  Speaker 1: So when you talk to Ukrainians on the streets there,
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  Speaker 1: as you interact on a day to day basis, what
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  Speaker 1: do Ukrainians want to see when it comes to this
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  Speaker 1: war and support from allies, but also in terms of
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  Speaker 1: just wrapping it up, like, what's the sentiment.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, everyone wants more weapons because it's exhausting to
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  Speaker 2: deal with war. It's exhausting to have missiles exploding your city,
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  Speaker 2: it's exhausting to have your loved ones and friends go
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  Speaker 2: to the front. So they seem pretty united in this.
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  Speaker 2: I think that earlier in the year there was some
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  Speaker 2: more of an appetite for some kind of negotiated peace
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  Speaker 2: because people were afraid that they were going to lose
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  Speaker 2: and the whole thing was exhausting. But at the same time,
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  Speaker 2: Ukrainians do not want to concede land. So you have
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  Speaker 2: these two opposing desires, the desire for peace but also
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  Speaker 2: resistance to land concessions. The feeling that I get now though,
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  Speaker 2: is that there's more confidence and more morale, And so
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  Speaker 2: I think now they may want to continue the war
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  Speaker 2: since they feel like they have a better shot at winning.
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  Speaker 1: And I guess, you know, finally, I guess absent more
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  Speaker 1: weapons showing up. Ukraine has developed a pretty considerable arms
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  Speaker 1: industry domestically, the drone manufacturing industry is absolutely incredible. Is
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  Speaker 1: there a sense that Ukraine could continue a go at
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  Speaker 1: this without Allied support?
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely not. They need Allied support. We saw what happened
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  Speaker 2: when they lost that support earlier this year. Right, Ukraine
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  Speaker 2: does have a strong arms industry, and it does manufacture
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  Speaker 2: many of of its drones, and now at this point
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  Speaker 2: it's testing its verstallistic missiles. But this is not enough.
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  Speaker 2: It needs access to the arsenal democracy. And we have
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  Speaker 2: to keep in mind that the value of the aid
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  Speaker 2: being sent to Ukraine from the West is actually relatively low.
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  Speaker 2: The total amount of money sent from the US amounts
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  Speaker 2: to about five percent of the total defense budget. So
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  Speaker 2: for five percent the total defense budget they've been able
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  Speaker 2: to the US has been able to cripple one of
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  Speaker 2: its main geopolitical rivals. In Canada, We've spent lessner fraction
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  Speaker 2: of one percent of our GDP helping Ukraine and yet
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  Speaker 2: by crippling Russia, we're able to secure our northern frontier
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  Speaker 2: for the next generation as global warming makes the Arctic
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  Speaker 2: Ocean a contested military and economic zone, so we really
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  Speaker 2: got to continue to support It matters a lot, as
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  Speaker 2: we've seen over the past few months.
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  Speaker 1: Further proving that investing in Ukraine is selfishly actually investing
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  Speaker 1: in ourselves at the same time, and it's something that
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  Speaker 1: is a win win on both sides of it. Adam,
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  Speaker 1: we were able to get through about eleven minutes here
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  Speaker 1: without a blackout. That's a really good thing.
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  Speaker 2: It's really nice. But I think the blackout might be
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  Speaker 2: coming imminently because it's like kind of schedule to arrive soon,
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  Speaker 2: so we will see.
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  Speaker 1: Hey, well, thank you so much for your time. I
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  Speaker 1: really do appreciate it. Adam.
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  Speaker 2: Well, thanks for having me on the show again.
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  Speaker 1: All the best. Adam Zvo is a columnist. You can
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  Speaker 1: read his latest piece. It is in the line. Reports
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  Speaker 1: of Ukraine's doom have been greatly exaggerated. Check that out
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  Speaker 1: at readth line dot Ca. Thank you so much, Adam Zvo.
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  Speaker 1: We're gonna take a quick break, but we'll be back
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  Speaker 1: right here on am eight hundred CKLW. After this