Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/27/26: Iran Threatens Massive Barrage, Germany Says Trump Humiliated By Iran, Oil Shock Officially Here

Transcript

4/27/26: Iran Threatens Massive Barrage, Germany Says Trump Humiliated By Iran, Oil Shock Officially Here · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
• 0:01
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  Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent
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  Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. Have an amazing
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: show for Buddy today. What are we have, Crystal?
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: Indeed we do so.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Those Iran talks never happened. Trump telling the reporters who
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: were there in islamabats to come home, never actually sending
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: his negotiators over Iron apparently never had any intention of
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: those talks continuing because their demands had not been met.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Pakistan involved in some misinformation there, so a lot to
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: break down there. Also, we have new reporting about how
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: there was more damage to you US bases than previously reported,
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: we may be dazed away from a massive oil shock
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: as the rubber hits the road and the straight of
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Hormos remains closed. Conspiracies are flying after the White House
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Correspondents Dinner shooting, So we'll show you all the things
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: that the people are talking about.
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: Also, we have Joe Kent.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: He's going to join us to talk about these security
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: failures and what he is observing and what he saw
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: from the inside about investigations into the various assassination attempts
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: on President Trump's life. And members of Congress are trying
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: to extend veterans benefits to the IDF. Not kidding, I
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: mean I saw someone on Twitter Sager say that this
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: story is like tailor made to make people hate Israel more,
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: and I think that's probably accurate.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. It almost seems too constructed in a
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: lab for somebody like you or I. But that also
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: shows the cognitive dissonance of many of the members of Congress.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So it is what it is. Before we get to
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: all of that thinking, everybody who's been subscribing to the
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: show breakingpoints in dot com. If you're able to become
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: a premus debscriber today will be a very rare AMA.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: It is going to be myself and producer Mac. In fact,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: somebody sent us a chess set. Perhaps we will play
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: a game of chess while we do the AMA. We'll
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: change things up here a little bit with my.
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: Wh who's got the higher elo at this?
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Oh it's Mac for sure. I think I'm sitting around
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: one ninety eight rapid. So that's about as bad as
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: it could possibly get. I think that puts me in
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: the bottom ten percent of all players worldwide, which includes
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: like six year olds who have downloaded the app just
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: one time. My horrible. What can I say? I'm doing
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: my best.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: I agreed to play with my son over the weekend
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: and it was ugly.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: Every move I made. It was like, I don't know
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: why you did that.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's nothing more humbling than getting beaten four out
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: of five games and drawing one than your wife's twelve
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: year old cousin. So but that's the beauty of the game.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: That's the beauty of the game. It's purely about skill. Okay,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: and then what else?
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: Oh?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: YouTube? Right? Hit subscribe to our YouTube channel if you can.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: If you listen to a podcast, please share an episode
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: with a friend But as Chris said, let's go ahead and
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: start with iron it is. You know, if you watch
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: the cable news, you'ld think the sh shooting is the
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: most important thing that happened. But we are literally in
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: the middle of the war. The President is actually convening
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: a situation room meeting today to decide what to do
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: about the Iran situation. But let's start off with Trump
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: calling off his negotiating team heading to Islamabad. He announced
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: it over the weekend. We'll put it up here on
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: the screen. He says, I just canceled the trip of
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: my representatives going to Islamabad, Pakistan to meet with the Iranians.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work. Besides which,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their quote leadership.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: have all the cards that they have none. If they
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: want to talk, all they have to do is call
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: President Donald J. Trump. He also justified not sending them
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: because it's too expensive. Let's get to the next one.
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: I think Packers there is terrific. I think the Field
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: Marshal is fantastic. I think the Prime Minister Pakistan's great,
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: and you know they'd like to see something happen, but
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: not going to be traveling fifteen sixteen hours to have
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: a meeting with people that nobody ever heard of, which
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: to make you make that decision too much travel. When
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: they say the meeting schedule for tuesday, I said, tuesday,
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: that's a long time from now. But when you get
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: right down to it, it's a lot of traveling. No,
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: we don't want to do it.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: At what point then with Coffin, Cushner and send by
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: President Vancy, what point are.
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: You going to any They're all very confident. Those are
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: three good but they weren't meeting with the leader of
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: the country. They were meeting with other people. And I said,
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: we're just not going to do too much traveling, takes
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: too long, too expensive. I'm a very close conscious person.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Too expensively is a very cost conscious person. Yeah, it
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: doesn't exactly pass the smell test. The big deal here
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: is basically they had a ceasefire deadline, the seastar deadline expired,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: there were no negotiations that happened. The Iranian terms were
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: made pretty clear. The US terms were also all up
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: in the air. They saw the Iranian terms that they
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: agreed to them as a total capitulation. And so we're
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: kind of in a space that treata Parsi predicted going
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: into this, which is Trump actually can just walk away.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: The blockade is still in place, the war is not
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: being restarted. It's also not really off. We're in this
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: weird semi hot zone where there is of course a
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: naval blockade, an active war. There of course is military
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: pressure on the Iranian regime, but they don't seem anxious
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: to restart the war either. And now everybody's kind of
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: in a limbo waiting for something to change and for
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: something to happen. And in the interim of what is it,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: a million several million barrels of oil per day are
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: getting shut in and are not exiting the straits of hormones,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: which is the only thing that really matters out of
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: this conflict so far.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and the thing is that this limbo state that
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: we're in right now, which you're absolutely right, true to
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Parsi has been saying, Hey, this is probably where this
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: is going to end up. That's unlikely that they're able
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: to resolve enough issues to actually come to a deal.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure this limbo state is a stable outcome.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: So for a variety of reasons. Number one, you've got
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: the Israelis who are itching to go back to war,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: and you were just saying, Zager were seeing in the
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: news bombing the hell out of Lebanon. You know, will
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: find any means possible to not only go back to
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: war with Iran, but get us back into war with Theran.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: So you have that, and then we're going to talk
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: more about the situation with oil later in the show.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: But the damage to our economy and to the global
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: economy is going to continue as long as the straight
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: of hor moves is closed. And at some point, you know,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: the markets are going to reflect the actual reality of
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: how many barrels, millions of barrels of oil have been
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: shut out of the economy. So while Trump is betting
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: that that pressure will be larger on Iran, they of
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: course have more existential stakes. He's also betting that pressure
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: will be more of a problem for the other rust
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: of the globe, which is probably true, but that doesn't
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: mean it's going to have not going to have dire
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: impacts here as well, which is why this is such.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: You know, it's just impossible to see how this all
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: plays out, given that there are effectively no good alternatives
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: for Trump at this point. You know, I also wanted
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: to talk about a little bit about this Barack reviewed
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: report that came out yesterday evening, just before like you know,
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: oil futures markets open and whatever, about how the Iranians
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: are now offering a new approach where the issues with
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: straight up hor moves would be worked out before dealing
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: with the nuclear file. And you know, I think it's
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: obviously noteworthy that this comes from Barack Revine, or it
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: comes right at a key market point. I think this
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: is another time to Trump to say, like, look, they're
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: still negotiating, they still want to work with us, There's
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: still a possibility of getting something done here, which does
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: indicate that he realizes there is some pressure on him
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: to bring some sort of resolution to this whole thing.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, even if the Iranians were to agree,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: if they were to propose that they would unambiguously win
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: because the removal of the strait of the removal of
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the blockade and some sort of resumption through the straits
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: of horror moves with no nuclear talks means that their
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Trump car was able to basically just be resolved on
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: its face with no concessions whatsoever on nuclear issues, on
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: ballistic missiles, or on any of their support for HESBOL
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: or any of these other groups, and the regime itself
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: got to survive and completely intact. So absolutely nothing would
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: have changed as a result of the war. If anything,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Iran may have been stronger. So I think you're right
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: that this is probably a market type move. But you know, look,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: everyone has eyes in the same way to describe it
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: in the way that I did. If the administration opened
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: or signed some sort of deal removal of the blockade
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: in exchange for opening of the Straits of hor Moves,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: it would contradict everything Trump has said about the Streets
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: of Horn Moves. He said, I don't need it. It's
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: actually China and Russia and all these other or China
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: and India and all these other companies or countries in
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Asia that are really reliant on the Straits of Horn Moves.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: It's not really that important to us. And the fact
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: that they were able to close it and then he
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: could just reopen it by removing the blockade. But except
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: the blockade was supposed to get them to the negotiating table.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Over nuclear issues and many other things. It would be
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: a total failure. But that's one reason why I'm not
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: so sure the Iranians would agree to it. You know,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: they have made it clear straight up hor moves and
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: control in some form, whether it be via sanctions relief,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: whether it be via tolls that are directly charged, there
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: will be de facto or at least some control and
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: some monetary mechanism in place after the war. So I
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: don't know why they would necessarily agree to it. The
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: other thing is on the blockade. There is a blockade
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: in place in name now, how much of it is
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: real we do not know. Remember that very clearly, Tanker
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: trackers has indicated there are some ships that were laiden
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: with a lot of oil that had to return to
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Iranian ports, But per satellite imagery they've been able to
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: confirm some ships have also been able to evade the blockade,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: and other ships have been able to come through and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: to low So how much of it is actually happening.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: How many of these naval vessels either are afraid or
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: they don't want to put themselves in a situation where
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: they're getting fired upon by these small IRGC vessels. We
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: also know, by the way, about mining, I think we
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: have that here somewhere. I actually know it's in the
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: next block. We'll talk about it and a little bit.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: But the whole point is that Iran, we do know,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: at least current US intelligence is suggesting that they have
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: laid more additional minds in the straits and hormones. A
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: current estimate from the Washington Post is it would take
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: approximately six months to clear all of those minds to
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: resume totally normal traffic. Now, the only reason why that matters,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: and I'm mentioning it here, is for some sort of
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: a deal, Iran with the minds knowing exactly where they are,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: would have control because they would have to tell the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: various different ships which way to go to be able
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: to avoid some of the different channels in other places
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: which have the minds in them. Again, that gives them
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: more leverage in some sort of negotiation. Let's play a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: three here where Trump again reiterates that they can call
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: us anytime they want, basically saying this is all going
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: to be negotiated by phone.
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: Probably heard that we can't hold the trip.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: We have all the guards.
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: We're not going to spend fifteen hours in airplanes all
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: the time, going back and forth to be giving a
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: document that was not good enough, and so well, deal
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: by telephone and they can call us anytime they want. Again,
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: we have all the cards. They have no military left. Practically,
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: they have no leaders left. We don't know who the
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: leaders are. Nobody knows who the leader. I don't know
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: if they know who the leaders are. Very importantly, so that.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Is from Trump about making a call. There also is
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: some indication one of the reasons, so Trump may have
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: called things off with Islamabad, but there is some indication
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: that it's actually Iran which left Islamabad and kind of
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: gave up on the Pakistan track. Let's put the next
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: one up here on the screen. This is very important.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: This was from an Iranian advisor and he says Pakistan
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: is a good friend and neighbor of ours, but it
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: is not a suitable intermediary for negotiations and lacks the
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: necessary credibility for mediation. They always take trump interest into
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: account and do not say a word against the American wishes.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: For example, they are unwilling to tell the world America
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: first accepted Pakistan's proposal but then went back on its word.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: They do not say that the Americans had commitments regarding
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the issues of Lebanon and the blocked assets to fulfill them.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: A mediator must be impartial, not always leaning to one side.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: The reason why I think that's important is it fits
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: with a lot of leaks that were coming out of
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the Iranian side Crystal in the last several days, where
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: they said Pakistan, sure, it was nice that they hosted
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: US for talks in the initial ceasefire negotiation, and what
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: we agreed to that was definitely something that we were
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: interested in. However, since that time, all they do is
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: reiterate the American side to US, but they don't push
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the Americans to change their terms. And all Pakistan has
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: really been doing is acting as a US client state,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: urging Iran to change some of its red lines or
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: some of its positions, and refusing to do so with
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: the United States side. And that's part of the reason
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: why the Foreign Minister Arachi actually left Pakistan a few
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: days ago, and after he departed there was no movement
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: whatsoever in the talks. I think they may have given
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: up on the Islamabad track whatsoever.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: Not to mention, if we put a six up on
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: the screen, this is something Ryan had his eyes on. Basically,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: it looks like the Pakistani's were helping Trump to market manipulate.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: On Friday, Ryan tweets out here the erroneous news reports
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: indicating the US and Iran would be restarting talks were
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: produced because Pakistan's ISPR sent the following incorrect update to
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: many journalists. They didn't send it directly to me, but
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: I was forwarded. This was the message breaking attributable to
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: government sources. Iranian Foreign Minister of Basarachi is expected to
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: arrive in Islamabad tonight with a small delegation following important
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: discussions with the Pakistani mediation team. A second round of
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Islamabad peaked peace talks between the US and Iran is expected.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: A US logistics and security team is already present in
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Islamabad to facilitate the negotiation process. Ryan then goes on
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: to say it was never true that Arachi had any
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: plans to re enter negotiations last week. Why would the
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Pakistani say otherwise anyway?
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Odd stuff.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: So basically the idea here is that you know this
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: was hopium from the US side and from the Pakistani side,
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: and even though the Iranians had never indicated, and we
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: know this from Jeremy's reporting, had never committed to any
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: sort of talks in Islamabad. Pakistan went ahead and put
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: this out. And so, of course, the fact that they
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: are carrying the message that the US wants to put forward,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: of like, oh, of course the Iranians want to meet
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: with us. Of course they want to negotiate. Of course
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: they're begging to come up to the table because we
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: have all the cards. The fact that the Pakistanis are
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: pushing this out to journalists and representing the American view
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: and what the American propaganda wants to push to the public,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: I think gives you a sense of why the Iranians
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: are feeling less and less comfortable with Pakistanis as mediators.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, the Pakistanis at
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: this point they haven't had the ability to compel anything
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: from the Americans to stick to. I mean, it makes sense, right,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: and their client state in every respect of the word. Now,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: remember also, one of the reasons why they were interested
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: is not just that they had okay relations with Iran.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Remember this country gets ninety nine percent of its natural
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: gas from Qatar, so it had a massive interest in
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: making sure that this of our moves were open, and
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: initially they thought that the Americans would agree to some
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: of the terms. But it just doesn't look like that's
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: the case. I mean, we're going to talk about it
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: later in the show. Israel killed like thirteen people just
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: yesterday in Lebanon, and An injured some thirty seven others.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: So the death toll, and look has Bill also killed
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: in IDF soldiers. So the idea that there's a ceasefire
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: in place whatsoever in Lebanon is ridiculous. And you know,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: it seems that that's one of the axes in which
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Iran continues to point to and is like, look, you
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: are not sticking to the deals, and you just simply
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: will not constrain Israeli action in Lebanon at all. Let's
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: put a five police up on the screen. This is
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: Trump talking about oil. The Iranian Voice, president and head
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: of the Organization for Energy Optimization, issued a direct warning
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Sunday in response to Trump's claim that the US naval
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: blockade would cause Iran's infrastructure to explode. Quote, we will
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: respond to any act of war if, as Trump claims,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: any part of our infrastructure, including oil wells, is damaged
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: as a result of the blockade. We guarantee that four
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: times the damage will be inflicted on the same infrastructure
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: in countries that support the aggressor. Because this was something
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: that Trump had previously floated on Fox News when in
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: an interview about hitting Iranian oil wells in retaliation. Let's
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: put the next one up there on the screen. This
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: is a seven from Arachi, the foreign minister. He says,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: I am now embarking on a timely tour of Islamabad,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Musket and Moscow. Purpose of my visit is to closely
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: regional developments. Our neighbors are our priorities. So this was
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: on April twenty fourth. So he is going to Islamabad,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: like I said, but it's not just the sole place
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: that he's going. He also mentions Musket, So that is Oman,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: which remember was a key negotiating partner ahead of the
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: launch of the war, and the Omani foreign minister took
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: to television saying we can work this out, this doesn't
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: have to be this way, and really did a plead
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: i think with the American government, only to really get
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: pretty upset at how they were effectively used as cover
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: and then finally Moscow. So I don't think that that
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: takes any explanation here. It's not like Iran is a
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: full on client state or anything of Russia. But they
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: have good relations, largely as a result of their animus
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: towards the United States, and they have a military relationship
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: that spans now to Ukraine, considering that they have supplied
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: many of these shah head drones to the Russian government,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: which they have used to great effect in the war
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: in Ukraine. And now obviously they're using them themselves in
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: their own war, and in some cases they're getting some
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: sort of assistance from Moscow and from Beijing as well.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: The fact that Beijing's not on the list is very interesting.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: But the very fact that he is going to Moscow
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: the foreign minister and that they will stand in solidarity,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: especially against the United States, is a direct message and
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: a kind of a middle finger, I think, to Washington.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: So that's what I think. That's basically where we stand
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and Trump talks a lot about who has the
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: cards here, Let's talk a little bit about the damage
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: that Iran has already been able to do, and some
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: of the cards that they may continue to hold. So
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: we've covered closely the damage that Iran was able to
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: do to US bases throughout the region, which I think
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: was apparently surprising to a lot of folks, including perhaps
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: some of our military planners. It was significant enough we
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: knew that soldiers had to be relocated from those bases
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: to civilian hotels, or at least that was the choice
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: that was made. But NBC News has a pretty extensive
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: report here of the damage to eleven different bases throughout
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: the region. We can put this here up on the screen.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Their headline is Iran caused more extensive damage to US
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: military bases than publicly known, and they go through base
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: by base and talk about how this is going to
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: cost billions of dollars to repair. It's far worse than
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: was publicly acknowledged. It's going to take a long time
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: to repair the extensive damage that was done to any
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: variety of facilities at these bases throughout the region. And
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: also in Sacery, you can probably speak more to this.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: The type of aircraft that was even able to commit
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: this level of damage was also quite shocking to those
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: like a Vietnam War era aircraft from the Iranians that
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: was able to successfully attack one of these bases.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so this was completely covered up, And let me
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: just read some of the details. The Iranian regime swiftly
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: retaliated after the Trump administration attack on February twenty eighth,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: hitting dozens of targets across US military bases. In the
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: initial days of the war, an Iranian F five fighter
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: jet bomb the US base Camp Buring in Kuwait, despite
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the base having air defenses, a rare breach that marked
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: the first time an enemy fixed wing aircraft has stuck
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: an American military base in years. And actually I spoke
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: to two or three different people specifically about this. I
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: was like, how how remarkable is it? So obviously we
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: haven't had even a peer war or anything like that
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: in a long time. The belief is that this is
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: the first time since Vietnam, and in fact is actually
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: very similar aircraft. But the whole point actually around that
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: is that this is a base equipped with air defense,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: and it shows how caught off guard the United States
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: military and the United States was whenever it came to
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: initial Iranian retaliation. Remember that's also the very same time
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: that that base or that tactical Operations Center was struck,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: which resulted in the biggest casualty event of the war.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: In the very opening days where they were not protected,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: they did not have drone defenses, and instead they were
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: equipped for more of a suicide bomb potential attack. They
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: hadn't updated to the more recent days. I just think
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: that what this highlights, this entire thing, it's not just
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: about the Iranian jet being able to attack a US
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: military base, to evade or at least get around US
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: air defenses, is that we have to look at it
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: in totality of not all of the bases just that
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: were struck, the multi billions in damage, the thad radar
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: completion of all of our interceptors from various different weapons systems,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: some cases fifty percent of the most advanced weapons, which
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: are gone and would take probably five to eight years
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: to replace even at an accelerated level. We are profoundly,
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: profoundly less prepared for any sort of real conflict after
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: just a what five week war with Iran, which we
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: were told was some sort of a third rate military
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: This has exposed once and for all the absolutely and look,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: it gives me no pleasure in saying this, but This
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: is a warning that we've been saying here now for
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: quite some time. We are not prepared for what future
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: warfare is going to look like. And we had a script,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: it was literally written on the battlefields of Ukraine, and
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: yet we just don't pay attention. We're like, no, we'll
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: be fine. We're better than them. Our aircraft carriers are
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: more superior, and we're just going to keep pouring money
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: into this broken system only for it to just not
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: really work whenever the time comes, and many sailors other
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: people are going to say, I think that's really unfair.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: It's not like, you know, we didn't take that many casualties.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: We're able to do X, Y and z. The point
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: is not about the tactical hits that we may have
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: been able to do hit to Iran. You have to
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: look at the strategic picture. They damage billions of dollars
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: in Bass, and the expectation from the military, from every
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: analyst in the world, was that if the US went
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: all out against Iran, even without ground troops, that they
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: would be able to inflict a significant amount of damage
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: and in fact, maybe even be able to collapse the regime.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: I never thought that last part, but I did definitely think, oh,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: we could definitely wipe out you know, X, Y and Z.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Well it didn't even happen. I mean, from what we
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: know from the US intelligence, it looks like at least
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: a third of the ballistic missiles have survived. Much of
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: the drone production. Now that you have this pause with ceasefire,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: they're going to dig out and repurpose much of what
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: was actually damaged. They obviously are also updating their's targets
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: and for everything. The Chinese are sending all kinds of data.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: They have a hidden spy satellite. And from the American side, like,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: we really changed the way that we're going to operate now.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Not really. We have another aircraft carrier there which is
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: on the way. That damage itself is rotten and stuff.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: It's not like you can rebuild a base or that
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: radar system overnight in the next three weeks, which is
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: just not going to happen.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: It's I think the arrogance it is erga under that,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, that really is the fatal flaw here, right.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: You can overcome a lot of disadvantages if you are
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: understand your adversary, if you respect your adversary, if you
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: plan for that conflict as Iran has been doing. You know,
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: they were planning to go up against a superpower, and
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: obviously they took that seriously, very seriously. And so you
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: have the specter of in the person of Trump, this
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: incredible ego, this incredible arrogance, this incredible ignorance of the world,
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: and like he has like a childlike understanding of the
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: world and a childlike business driven idea of how negotiations work,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: and you know, how war will unfold, and that merges
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: with the arrogance and ego of a declining empire, and
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: that's how you end up in this place where he
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: really convinced himself, oh we'll go in four days, we'll
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: be done. And now here we are and Iran effectively
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: has us in check. Maybe we can put this next
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: piece up on the screen, just over some of the
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: most basic elements that they have on their side, this
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: geographic strategic position and their ability to deploy some really basic,
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: relatively low tech, you know, technology from drones to now
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: they're deploying more minds in the Strait of Hormuz. And
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: the reporting is that even if the war and all
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: hostilities completely ceased, it would take six months to go
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: and and demine the straight and that was that reporting
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: was before you have this additional, you know, addition of
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: these new minds that they are laying in the strait.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: So without the Iranians agreeing to reopen things and work
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: together with us, you know, this is not going going
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: back to normal anytime soon, if it ever does. I mean,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: I think what we're looking at really is a new normal.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: And at the same time, let's put this from CNN
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: up on the screen. We are coming up with these
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: new plans that are just sort of a rehash of
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: the old plans that fail. This is from CNN. They
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: say the US military's developing plans to target Iran straight
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: of Hormus defenses if the ceasefire fails. And look, I'm
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: sure they can blow up a bunch of stuff around
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz. Will Iran be able to retain
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: some capacity to send out drones to menace any sort
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: of ships that would want to transit that area.
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: Of course they will.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: Well, they maintain some capacity of their navy, which apparently
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: they've been able to retain something like sixty percent of
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: their naval assets in spite of what Trump has said. Yes,
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: they'll be able to do that, and those minds will
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: remain in our own. Ability apparently to remove mines from
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: key waterways has been diminished, and some of those key
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: ships have been decommissioned. But in any case, what they
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: say say, here's the options. Among several sets of target
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: types under consideration include strikes with a particular focus on
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: dynamic targeting of Iran's capabilities around the Strait of Hormu's,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Southern Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, the source said,
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: describing potential attacks against small, fast attack boats. That's what
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Trump was calling the wise guy boats, mine laying vessels
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: and other asymmetric assets that have helped Tehran effectively shut
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: down those key waterways and use them as leverage over
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: the US. And I don't think anyone should have any
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: expectation that the results of this new planned potential operation
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: would be significantly different than the results that we have
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: received to date.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, let's continue. Let's put the next one up
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: there on the screen. This one is very important, is
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: that Iran. This is actually from an account in Iran.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Iran has quote prepared upon observing any signs of an
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: impending strike to launch quote the largest missile barrage in
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: history against the occupied territories and certain US allied Arab countries.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Almost certainly they will be targeting the UAE and Saudi
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Arabia and Kuwait and Bahrain wherever US bases are, but
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: also they mentioned Israel there specifically. Now keep in mind that, yes,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: there has been the ability for both sides to rearm,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: but our munition stock is very very low, especially for
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the types of munitions that we need if this war
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: were to resume. It's not like you can just magically
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: conjure that interceptors out of nowhere. Same with the Iron Dome,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: same with many of the interceptor where we know with
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Israel was down to some double digit stock and was
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: beginning to ration by the very end of the war.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: That was probably the biggest existential threat that they faced
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: is they really didn't have that very many immunitions left,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: and even now if we were to rearm them, there's
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: still not that many, maybe a few weeks or so
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: more which we were able to scrounge up from our
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: own assets or from deep within the supply chain. Let's
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: put B five up here. Also, I think this is
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: a really important story because ostensibly this entire thing is
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: about the nuclear program, and what David Sanger and William
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: broad right here is Trump seeks to abolish Iran's atomic stockpile,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: a problem he helped create. They say. Specifically, Trump withdrew
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: from the Obama era nuclear deal, saying it was the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: worst deal ever. Iran responded with Richmond spree that haunts
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the negotiations to this day. And very specifically, and perhaps
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: most importantly deep within the story is they reveal that
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: there is a decent enough chance that in the interim
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: period between June and those midnight hammer bombings and today
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: that a new Iranian enrichment site was set up somewhere
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: deep within the mountains in a tunnel. They say that
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: the enrichment site doesn't have to be bigger than a
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: grocery store, so it's quite easy to hide. Is that
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: clearly it either hasn't been yet destroyed or again, look,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: this is assuming that this is real. We don't know,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: but from what they report inside of the story is
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: that this enrichment site was potentially about to be disclosed
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: before any sort, before the bombings actually even began. Now
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: we don't have any real read on where it is
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: and if Iran wanted to they could sprint at least
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: to some sort of enriched uranium and a latent nuclear
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: deterrent threat. Considering that they still have their ballistic missile capacity,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: the logic right now of getting a nuke and their
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: capacity actually seems to be very First of all, the
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: logic makes more sense than ever from their perspective. But
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: then their capacity actually seems to have remained completely unchanged
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: as a result of this war.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Specifically, what they say here is that the IAEA, the
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: International Atomic Energy Agency, had a disclosure meeting with Iran
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: planned for June thirteenth, twenty twenty five. Well, guess what
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: else happened on that day? We decided to attack them.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: They were bombed. So, you know, the idea is that
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: this new facility was likely to be the location of
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: it was likely to be revealed on that day. You
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: know whether or not that for one hundred percent sure
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: would happen, we don't know. But instead of finding out
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: and you know, moving forward with the deal that was
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: on the table at that point from the Iranians, that
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: the Omani's will say, hey, this is a good deal.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: This is far beyond what even the Obama administration was
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: able to obtain.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: Instead, we decided to go to war.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: And you know, as you and I and many others
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: worried about at the time, they presented it as, oh,
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: we can just go in, we'll bomb the hell on it.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: There are nuclear facilities, and we'll be out and that's it.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: That's a wrap, you know, and they'll be set back,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. First of all, even on its face,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: that is a vastly inferior approach than actually having a
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: deal with them that you know, requiring inspections and being
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: able to long term curtail their nuclear production versus just
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: bombing them and creating some sort of a setback. But
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: now we know that it didn't set them back at all,
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: and of course it paved the road to the disastrous
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: war that we are in now. And I think there's
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: an interesting quote here that really gets to the heart
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: of the matter in this article. This is from a
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: nuclear specialist at Harvard. He says, look, we can't bomb
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: away their knowledge. Since a plant in richeranium can be
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: comparable in size to a grocery store, the mountains train
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: of Iran offers many places to hide a clandestine bomb
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: effort so you can murder all the scientists you want,
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: you can you know, bomb around the country, you can
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: assassinate the aetola, et cetera. But they have sufficient knowledge
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: at this point that if they want to pursue and
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: they you know, have sufficient and highly enricheranium, you know,
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: stored in places that we don't even know exactly where
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: it is, that if they decide to pursue that direction,
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: they can pursue it. And the best chance to move
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: us in a different direction was the original Obama jacpoa
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: that you know Trump immediately gets out of, and that
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: is what helps start this whole movement to war that
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: we're in now. And you know, blame lays with Biden
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: as well, who decided not to get back into that deal,
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: and I think that shouldn't be left out here. But ultimately,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: obviously it's Trump who brings this disaster truly on in
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: terms of American interest, absolute disaster. Let's go and put
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: B six up on the screen, because this is important
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: in terms of some of the regional dynamics here. Israel
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: sent the iron dome system and troops to the UAE
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: during the Iran War. This is something they've never done before.
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: They've never shared the iron dome system with any other country.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: This is something that would have been unimaginable, you know,
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: probably prior to the Abraham Accords. And I think it
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: also sober very strongly indicates, and this is something that
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: doctor Parsi was tweeting about, very strongly indicates the UAE's
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: direct involvement in this war, which is something that they
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: themselves have floated but also been kind of cagy about
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: what their territory and what actions they've been involved indirectly.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: Hard to imagine Israel sending them iron dome system and
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: troops if they were not already engaged as effectively combatants
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: in this war already.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: No question, I mean, beyond that, it actually is a bit. Look,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: I think that's a big problem for to buy and
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: for the UAE. It's one thing to be in the
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Abraham Accords. It's another thing to have Israeli troops and
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: iron dome systems being used by your country. I don't
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: think that the vast majority of Amoradis are going to
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: be cool with that. And in fact, you know, look,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: as we always say, with these monarchies, they are monarchies,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: but not in an absolute sense like there is some
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: democracy in terms of feelings and the population and their
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: acquiescence to the monarchy and to the royals who rule them.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: They get paid, they make a lot of money, but
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: they don't have freedom of speech right, and there's a
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: little bit of a trade off. But whenever it comes
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: to the issue of israel I mean, that is a
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: very very hot topic. I think for a lot of
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: the Amorati population, are they really going to accept Israeli soldiers.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking about Israeli soldiers. Idea of soldiers
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: on their soil helping defend their nation, I'm not so
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: sure about that. I also think the bigger proper for
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: the UAE is they really went all in on this war.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: They have made it very clear that they wanted a
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: UN authorization to bomb Iran. Their own jets and others
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: were speculated potentially to have been involved actually in an
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: attack on the country. Obviously it hasn't been confirmed, but
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: this was on the very last day whenever it came
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: to the ceasefire. There's also still remains a lot of
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: the questions where for them, they're furious about the way
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: that everything worked out, because of course they got their
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: image ruined with Dubai, their airport was damaged in many cases,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: and then their entire like you know, we've talked about
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: the luxury sales of goods. Many residents have fled the region.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: They may not be coming back. It might crash their
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: real estate market. So for them, they're feeling like this
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: is existential and within that, you know, I think that
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: they're making a choice here which cannot be undone and
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: will definitely perhaps invite enmity from the rest of the region.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: I'm very curious to see how it'll, you know, interact
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: with their own diplomatic negotiations by going so all in
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: with Israel, with the United States for Iran as well,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: they're going to use this as a reason to attack
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: in the future if they need to. So it is
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: they definitely like cast their lot, I think with this move.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: And at the same time, as we mentioned before, I
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: can put this up on the screen from drop site,
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: Israel continues to bomb in Lebanon. I was just reading
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: a Haretz story about, you know, the IDF is bragging
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: about they hit fifteen war quote unquote Hesbula strongholds or
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Hesbula sites and at least fifty one Drop site says
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: Lebanese civilians killed or injured today. That was from yesterday,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: after more than twenty Israeli air strikes across southern Lebanon's
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: According to official figure sided by Press TVs correspondspondent, fourteen people,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: including two women and two children, have been killed, thirty
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: seven wounded. Tools not final as strikes are still ongoing,
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: and obviously Iran has made Lebanon a very central part
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: of their willingness to negotiate. You know, when Trump announced
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: this ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, that's when Arachi came
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: out and said, okay, the strait is open. And then
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Trump undercut that by saying, well, we're going to do
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: a blockade of the blockade and we're keeping that in place.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: So that's how those that initial thaw was completely undercut
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: by Trump. But now, so long as Israel is allowed
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: to go back in and relentlessly bomb, you know, there's
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: there's no chance that the Iranians are going to come
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: back to the negotiating table. And just to go back
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: for a second to what I was mentioning before with
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: that Barock revied report about oh, the Iranians came up
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: with a new plan for how they're going to move forward.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, that was just basically sort of lipstick on
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: a pig. What the Iranians are really saying is, hey,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: we don't even want to talk about nuclear with you
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: right now. We can talk about the straight UPFOM moves
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: and what a new reality is going to be, but
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: we're not even prepared to talk about nuclear anything with
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: you at this point. So we are much further away
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: from even any sort of talks occurring at this point,
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: and you know, are in a very i would say,
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: unstable new status quo as of this morning. One other
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: thing I wanted to update on is to quote now
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: from the German Chancellor who says he doesn't see an
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: exit strategy for the US and quote an entire nation
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership at the moment.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: I don't see what exit strategy the Americans are choosing,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: and goes on to say the Iranians are obviously negotiating
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: very skillfully and clearly stronger than one thought. So that
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: is from our German allies saying outright, we are being
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: humiliated by the Iranian leadership. They are much stronger, we
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: are much weaker and there is no exit plan.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: Insight.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: Let's remember he supported the war in the initial days.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: So let's all just recall what mister Mertz was saying.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: But I mean he's right, the straits closed, the energy
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: crisis continues. Yes, I know it doesn't feel like it.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Oh the world is not ending. Yeah, that's not how
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: supply chains and all that work. I again beg everybody
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: to remember COVID it took literally months and up to
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: a year for the full spike and the impact of
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: what all of that to play delay in the supply
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: chain looked at. Also, have you been to the gas
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: station recently? Yeah, it hasn't gone up much. What is
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: gas right now? Let me take a look. It's four
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: to eleven a gallon. That's still really high. Our producer Griffin,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: who's in La, he sent us a picture. Let me
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: find it. What was it in his neighborhood? Six seventy
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: nine a gallon in Los Angeles six seventy nine. He
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: says that it is the cheapest in his area, and
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: that quote, we are past seven a few blocks away.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: I mean I would riot at seven dollars a gallon
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: for gas, and you know it tracks California. The state
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: wide price right now is average is five ninety four
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: a gallon. They're six cents away from six bucks, and
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming that that is, you know, not what the
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: case is in places like La San Diego and San Francisco.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: So look, it's not like the immediate immediacy of all
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: of this is not like already being felt. Well, the
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: cheapest gas that I can see right now in the
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: nation is three point fifty in Oklahoma, which again I'm
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: pretty sure is right next to the refinery, which is
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: the whole reason that's happening. That's a good enough transition,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: I think, to oil, because everybody is downplaying this level
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: of shock to the entire US economy, like there is
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: no way that it can survive in the way that
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: it was before as a result of this war. Yeah.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: Well, I keep coming back to something that Rory Johnston
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: has told us that he thinks that traders are underestimating
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: the impact because the reality is just too awful to
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: actually price in. And so this Bloomberg piece sort of
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: speaks to that dynamic. We can put this up on
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: the screen. They say, the billion barrel hor mooze oil
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: shock is about to crash demand.
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: The straight up horror moves.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: Oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: world bars from its stocks and pays up to secure supply.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: is coming. The longer the vital oil channel does not reopen,
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: traders say, the more consumption is going to have to
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: recalibrate lower to align with supply that's dropped at least
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: ten percent. For that to happen, people will have to
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: buy less, either through prices they can't afford or government
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: intervention to force consumption down. A billion barrels of supply
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: loss is already all but guaranteed, more than double the
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: emergency inventories that Governs released not long after the conflict
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: began at the end of February. Buffers are being used
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: at fast helping to keep a lid on oil prices
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: for now. But with the closure now in its ninth week,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: demand destruction that started in less obvious sectors like petrochemicals
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: in Asia is quietly spreading to every day markets the
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: world over. And so and they go on to say,
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: we are at a critical inflection point, and obviously here
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: no end in sight. You know, not only do we
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: have the Iranians controlling what goes through the US, implementing
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: some level of blockade and going after Iranian ships around
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: the world as well. That's part of the stated policy.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: And as you were saying before soccer, there is some
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: indication that a run is still able to move some
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: of their oil product, but certainly it is much much,
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: much much less than pre war. So at some point,
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: you know, they use these like economic terms of art,
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: like demand destruction, et cetera. What does that mean? It
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: means that people will not be able to afford gas.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: It means the poor world is screwed. It means we're
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: going to have a hunger crisis. It means that you know,
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: your budget is going to be stretched to the breaking
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: point and you are not going to be going the
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: places that you had planned on being able to go.
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: It means for working class people that are going to
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: struggle to afford even just to get to work and
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: have that work out. So that's you know, that is
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: what we are on the precipice of right now.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look it's already here. Can we put C three
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: up there on the screen. I'm amazed if this is
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: not a bigger st This is from the Financial Times.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: They went through the numbers. It says US motorists scamp
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: at the pump as around war keeps petrol prices high.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: I love British phraseology. They say, between February and March,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: average petrol sales that's gased for those of us here
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: in the US per station in the northeastern US fell
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: four point three percent in March, compared with a point
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: six percent growth in the same period as last year.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: This is from data which tracks consumer spending at more
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: than twenty three thousand gas stations across the nation. How
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: is this not a bigger story? In the Northeastern United States,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: gas demand has fallen by four point three percent. That
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: is actually huge. Again, as they point out last year
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: zero point six percent of an overall increase. I mean,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: as I understand it, when the weather gets better, people
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: tend to drive more and they take more trips. This
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: is something which is very expected. That's part of the
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: reason why whenever the weather starts to get our February
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: to March you're going to start to see a spike.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: You've got almost a five percent drop in gas demand
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: in the very same period as when you had an
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: increase over or at least stasis in the same period
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: of last year. Five percent gas is huge. I mean,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: it's not like you can five percent for a commodity
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: which the vast majority of people are going to basically
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: drive no matter what. It takes a lot for people
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: to consume less gas. And to say five percent as
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: if it's like some willy nilly thing is just not accurate.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: I think whatsoever, think about what a five percent drop
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: in consumer spending in the United States would mean. I mean,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: it would be catastrophic actually for a lot of the
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: US retail industry. What would five percent mean whenever it
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: comes to GP or any of these things, Like, it
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: is not a small number, and it is a number
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: from just one month that we saw at overall reduction
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: in the amount of gas consumption. So that's here. I mean,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: I look, I can only speculate, but there's just no
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: way if Los Angeles is going for six to seventy
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: nine a gallon or seven dollars a gallon something like that,
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: that people are going to be driving as much. It's
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: just not possible, Like literally financially without I don't know,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: crazy credit card debt, people are going to make maybe
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: the conscious or the unconscious choice of saying we're not
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: going to do X, Y and Z. And remember gas
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: is just about on your way to go there. It's
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: also about all the things you might have spent and
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: the dollars that you may have had once you had
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: arrived at that different destination. So this is a serious
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: quality of life hit period, and I think it will
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: also show up very soon in the data. Let's put
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: C four on the screen. This was another report which
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: I was reading just yesterday. So Goldman Sachs put out
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: a new report basically for their own like it's a
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: research style report, and they forecast that the US could
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: lose ten thousand jobs a month this year as the
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: oil shock ripples through the economy. This was in a
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: client note. A team of economists at the bank said
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: they anticipate high unemployment and slow job growth growth to
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: ripple through the end of the year as the impact
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: of high oil prices ripple this across the economy. In
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: the bank's base scenario, the oil price would shave off
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: ten thousand jobs a month through the end of the year,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: even after accounting for expected job gains in the energy sector.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: The bank also said it expects unemployment to tick higher
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: to four point six by the end of the third quarter,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: and the economy will lose ninety two thousand jobs, just
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: as part of the latest farm payrolls report. The upward
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: pressure on unemployment primarily reflects lower hiring, with the smaller
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: contribution from higher layoffs in industries most exposed to weaker
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: consumer spending. And I think that will be I mean,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: remember Crystal during COVID, very similar hospitality. At one point,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: what was their unemployment rate? It was like eighty percent.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: And so if you see a similar reduction and gas demand,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: you will very likely see something happen like that where
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: people travel less and you start to see bookings in
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: thought like that go down in the coming months ahead,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: not to mention jet fuel and the airline price increase
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: as well.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, now there is one for the empire's perspective, there
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: is an offsetting sort of dynamic here, which is that
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: while you're going to screwed at the pump, you know,
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: the oil producers are making money hand over fist in
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: since you have you know, the Middle Eastern sources of
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: oil greatly reduced, people are coming to you know, to
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: buy American oil in droves like the you know, amount
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: of exports of American oil are skyrocketing, So no, that
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: doesn't help you. But in terms of those oil executives
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: and shareholders, and in a certain sense in terms of
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: the interests of the empire, where then we have control
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: of our larger share of the pie. The overall pie
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: has been reduced, but what remains we have larger control
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: over that share of the pie. There is somewhat of
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: an empire benefit here. The problem is though that you know,
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: if you go beyond that energy control, I mean, there's
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: a bunch of problems. Number one, what the bet if
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: you're thinking in that direction. The bet is basically that
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: the rest of the world will suffer more than us.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: That doesn't mean we don't suffer, right, That means we
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: still suffer a lot, just less than the rest of
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: the world. So maybe that helps us hold on to
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: our hegemony. But I think that is a really flawed
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: way of thinking about things when you consider how vulnerable
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: we are because of how little we make here, how
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: few of like critical supply lines we've been able to
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: take control over. Energy is just one resource of many
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: that are required, even just to re equip ourselves from
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: a defensive or warfooting perspective. But when Trump talks about like, oh,
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: We've got all the time in the world and everyone's
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: going to come by our oil, et cetera, I think
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: that is part of what he's thinking about, even as
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: the cost to you at not just at the gas punk,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: but with food inflation, with joblessness, with a stagnant and economy,
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: even though the costs there are very very high.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: This is why. Look, the numbers you pay attention to
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: are the ones which decide how you think the economy
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: is doing. So the S and P is actually near
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: an all time high. It's only down point zero seven
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: percent today, and Brent Krude is what one hundred and
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: seven dollars. That's still very high compared to where things are,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: So you might ask, why are these things not showing up. Well,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: one of the reasons why the S and P's on
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: a tear is because of AI has nothing to do
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: with consumer spending. It has absolutely I mean it has
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: some to do, but very recently, the vast majority of
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: the gains are concentrated in AI and in tech. Now
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: maybe that bubble will burst, who knows, But at the
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: very least, right now you have all these crazy IPOs,
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: open AI and Anthropic are anticipated to go for boom.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: I was just reading yesterday, like signs of froth are
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: everywhere in the market. But the point is is that
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: that's not conneccessarily as connected to how you or I
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: are experiencing these different things. Electricity bills are going up
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: across the country with record power demand because of data centers,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: but not necessarily because of anything, you know, all that productive.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: We just talked about oil. So while you may suffer
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: at the pump, if you own a Houston rolex dealership
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: or a Dallas car dealership, you're doing great, right, I
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: mean you're booming. So there are certain pockets of the
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: economy and of the top line numbers which will do
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: very well. It's really about how that's all going to
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: impact the average person and their general consumer experience, I think,
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: in the country. And that's very, very obvious. And yet look,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: we already know that it's not like people listen as
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: a result of those things. But the powerful force of
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four election, which turned so much on inflation,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: and the comparison between the Biden years and the initial
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Trump years, I mean, you cannot underestimate that as a
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: political force going forward. Oh C five up there on
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: the screen also just to show you where's the priorities.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: The Secretary of the Treasury is out here defending quote
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: US dollar swap lines as Iran war harms global finances. Basically,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: this is a fancy way of saying that the US
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: will participate in a bailout of the Persian Gulf in
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: during the Iran war. He said, current countries about US
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: dollars swap lines are part of ongoing routine conversation that
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: Treasury has been having with our partners over a number
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: of years. Had previously said, many allies in the Golf
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: seek the same backstop as it reeks havoc on oil
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: rich nations economies. It's again a very very fancy, fancy
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: way of saying that we're going to bail out the
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: UAE as a result of the war. And look, I
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: mean I'm not you know, I'm not a fan of
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: the UAE. I just talked about it and all that.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: I do kind of get it, like they're like, you
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: ruined our economy, you have to help us. Same with
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: many of these other Golf countries. But just think about
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: the headlines they're bailing out spirit. There's currently a two
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: point five billion dollar bailout offer from some of the
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: budget airlines for the government to take equity stakes in
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: their companies again because they're getting slammed by jet fuel.
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: Now we're going to bail out the UAE. We bailed
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: out Argentina. Who else can we bail out anybody here? Right?
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: And you know, if you look at that from a
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: politics headline perspective, that really is going to make people mad.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: I remember when we bailed out Argentina, when those farmers
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: were getting hit. Then we literally a farmer Trump pro
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: Trump farmer here. He's like, I can't believe they're bailing
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: out Argentina while I'm here getting screwed by the same
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: administration's policies.
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: Well, Trump told you, he gave you that answer.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: He said, we can't do Medicare, we can't do Medicaid,
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: we can't do healthcare for people, we can't do daycare
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: because we got to do war. I mean, those are
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: almost exactly his words. He put it quite plainly. Well, no,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: we're not going to do any bailout for ordinary Americans. No,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: that's not on the table. We got to wage these
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: wars around the world. Why to make things worse for everybody,
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: to make your life even harder, to make a bunch
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: of Military Industrial complex war profiteers a lot wealthier. That's
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: apparently the reason here, to create distressed assets for his
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: billionaire buddies to buy up. And there's very interesting tweet
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: from If you aren't following mister Golliboff, the Iranian parliamentary
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: speaker on Twitter, I highly recommend that you follow him.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: He likes to jump in with some interesting financial analysis
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: because that is part of his background. And so in
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: reaction to this story of a likely currency swap line
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: for the UAE and this bailout, he says this, let's
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: put this up on the screen. He says, swaps given
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: to prevent disorderly sale of US assets meaning treasuries. Translation,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: some holders can't sell in case you don't know, hidden
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: single digit percent sale cap limits. Some institutional holders door
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: closes if things escalate, get out while open. Their front
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: line is the yield curve. Okay, So what does all
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: of that mean? Basically, what he's pointing to is the
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: fact that this administration and sort of has to watch
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: the bond market very closely, because if you're having to
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: offer a higher interest rate to lure people into buy treasuries.
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: What does that mean?
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: It means our borrowing costs escalate. It's a financial catastrophe
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: fee for US. So we've seen previously, especially with regard
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: to the tariffs, that Trump is very sensitive to movements
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: in that yield curve. That's why he says their frontline
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: is the yield curve. Okay, how does that connect to UEE. Well,
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: there's a couple of sort of both overt and more
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: subtle threats that the UAE made. One of them is
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: they would need to sell some of their treasury holdings
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: if they are running low on dollars. So that would
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: be you know, that would be a problem for the
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: treasury market, and other countries may have to do that besides,
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: and then the other threat that they made is, hey,
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: we're not going to have the dollars to be able
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: to pay for oil in dollars. We're going to have
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: to denominate our you know, our oil transactions in Chinese
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: you want, So that's why Scott Bessett and Trump and ours,
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: oh no, no, no, don't do that. Don't worry, We got you.
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: We'll do this currency line. So that's that is what's
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: going on here, but Golliboff demonstrating him a very sophisticated
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: understanding of some of the pressures that the US is under.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: And I guess some of the cards that the Iranians
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: continue to hold.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: Whether it's his account or not, nobody knows really who's
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: running it. They're very savvy because it's not just about
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: diplomatic messages that are being posted. Much of it is
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: aimed directly. In some cases, what was it like the
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: ticker on the Bloomberg I'm not, you know, financially enough.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: It was the command that you enter into the Bloomberg terminal, Yes,
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: for oil, for like oil crude prices.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: If you don't know what we're talking about, Sophisticated traders
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: use something called a Bloomberg terminal. What's the subscription for
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: a Bloomberg terminal. It's like twenty thousand dollars a year
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: or something to get one and like just to be
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: able to trade on just to give you.
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: I'm not definitely going to destroy that business, but.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: If you've ever, if you've ever, I think my college
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: library had a Bloomberg terminal or two. So if you're
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: in college and you're a student and you want to
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: know what goallibof is talking about. Go and start plugging
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: those things. I've never actually used one, but I have
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: a few friends who have. But again, that's the audience
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: who he's speaking to. He's trying to speak to the
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: people who move the markets and trying to, I guess,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: talk some sense from his perspective into some of these
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: oil traders in a sense though I don't even know,
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: like what else we're like everything in our media seems
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: totally disconnected. I just see it. Every day. Gas is
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: about four dollars a gallon. I'm like, this is a crisis.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Brent Grewt is one hundred and seven dollars. I'm looking
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: at it right now. It is a seventy eight percent
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: year to date. What are we doing here? Like eighty
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: percent increase in the oil price? That there's I mean,
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: there's just no world. If I look at West Texas,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: I mean I'm talking it's ninety five, you know, nineteen
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: same thing. It's up like seventy something percent from where
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: we were as of four or five months ago. Like
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: that is there's no describing if I told you that
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: before even the Iran war or in January on January
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: first of twenty twenty six, asid oil is going to
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: go up by eighty percent. How would anybody react to that?
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: But people are covering it as if you know, oh
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: the c Squire, Yeah, look, we're gonna talk about the shooting.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: I agree, it's a big deal. Most of the reason
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: that all the press, though, is obsessed with it is
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: because they're all there. That's why they think. It's like
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: they're all like processing their PTSD or whatever. I'm like, Yo,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: the gas is four bucks a gallon. Gas in California
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: is six dollars a gallon. Every single day that this continues,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: it's a nightmare. And I don't know, I don't see
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: the pressure from others, you know, outside of a few
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Barockravid or other types of tweets to recognize I think
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: the level of havoc that this is already having and
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: will continue to have in our economy, it's genuinely driving
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: me nuts.