Latest / Trumponomics / Why Europe Finds It Hard to Break Chinese Supply Chains
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: A normal country facing a rival like China would be
- 0:04Speaker 1: building alliances to the rest of the world, not imposing
- 0:07Speaker 1: tariffs on them. And I think that's what will likely
- 0:10Speaker 1: come from the change of president in November um and
- 0:14Speaker 1: I think that's probably the most bullish news for emerging
- 0:17Speaker 1: markets of all that's going to come out of this,
- 0:20Speaker 1: this unexpected virus and the impact on the global economy. Hello,
- 0:30Speaker 1: and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the COVID
- 0:33Speaker 1: global economy to you. And that's what the chief economy
- 0:36Speaker 1: is for renaissance Capital. Charlie Robertson thinks will be the
- 0:40Speaker 1: most important effect of COVID nineteen for emerging market economies.
- 0:45Speaker 1: Developing countries will come out of the crisis faster than
- 0:47Speaker 1: many people expect, in his view, and the lasting effect
- 0:51Speaker 1: will come not from the disease itself or the direct
- 0:55Speaker 1: impact on the global economy, but from President Donald Trump
- 0:59Speaker 1: not getting form or years to put up trade barriers
- 1:01Speaker 1: and discourage global investment. I was speaking to Mr Robertson
- 1:05Speaker 1: and the chief economist of the World Trade Organization, Robert Koopman,
- 1:09Speaker 1: this week in a panel for City Week, an event
- 1:12Speaker 1: organized by City and Financial Global More on that in
- 1:15Speaker 1: a few minutes, but first I wanted to give you
- 1:18Speaker 1: some on the ground perspective on the future of global trade.
- 1:27Speaker 1: You might remember, in the early months of the COVID crisis,
- 1:29Speaker 1: a lot of commentators declared the end of globalization. Governments,
- 1:33Speaker 1: especially in Europe, started talking about the need for strategic autonomy.
- 1:38Speaker 1: Never again would companies or countries want to get caught
- 1:41Speaker 1: short in key medical supplies or discover that key inputs
- 1:45Speaker 1: to major industries or came from a single factory in Wuhan.
- 1:49Speaker 1: Production will be brought back home. They said, supply chains
- 1:53Speaker 1: would shrink, ties with China would be cut. Well, that
- 1:57Speaker 1: was the theory. Life has turned out to be more complicated,
- 2:01Speaker 1: and those ties with China in particular have turned out
- 2:04Speaker 1: to be quite hard to sever A group of Bloomberg
- 2:07Speaker 1: reporters from across Europe have been looking for firms who
- 2:10Speaker 1: are rethinking their supply chains as a result of COVID nineteen.
- 2:15Speaker 1: Their story was published this week, and I'm glad to
- 2:17Speaker 1: say that one of those reporters, Pyota Skolimowski, is with
- 2:20Speaker 1: me now. He's in Frankfurt and also spends a lot
- 2:23Speaker 1: of time covering the European Central Bank, Pyotta. Welcome to Stephanomics.
- 2:28Speaker 1: So what did you find out in this story? So
- 2:30Speaker 1: it's not so easy for these firms to cut their
- 2:33Speaker 1: ties with China high Stephaniely. Indeed, it's it's a tough
- 2:36Speaker 1: one despite the fact that Europe is really trying to
- 2:40Speaker 1: wean its economies off from the dependence on China and
- 2:45Speaker 1: other Asian companies are Asian suppliers. We talked to a
- 2:49Speaker 1: few companies, one in Italy, for example, producer of shoes,
- 2:55Speaker 1: where the chairman of the company basically said, well, Chinese
- 2:58Speaker 1: workers are are just better at doing what he called
- 3:00Speaker 1: jim shoes. But but the fact here is is actually costs,
- 3:04Speaker 1: so he has production costs in China are still sevent
- 3:08Speaker 1: seventy five percent lower than in Italy. So that's a
- 3:11Speaker 1: big factor of why he's not really eager to move
- 3:14Speaker 1: everything to Italy. So as as long as there are
- 3:17Speaker 1: no subsidies from the government or support in one form
- 3:21Speaker 1: or another of lower taxes for example, and he's not
- 3:24Speaker 1: going to move production closer to home. And it also
- 3:28Speaker 1: applies to other sectors where as a matter of fact,
- 3:33Speaker 1: they are key to to to the strategy of of
- 3:37Speaker 1: shortening supply chains in Europe, for example, pharmaceutical companies. We
- 3:41Speaker 1: talked to one of the executives who said, well, actually
- 3:44Speaker 1: China dominates one of the market for ingredients to what
- 3:49Speaker 1: he called active ingredients for for drugs that his company
- 3:53Speaker 1: is producing. So it's really difficult to suddenly move away
- 3:57Speaker 1: from that and just go and and mind suppliers somewhere else.
- 4:02Speaker 1: And finally, there's also another factor that simply companies in
- 4:07Speaker 1: Europe reli very heavily on exports, so China is not
- 4:11Speaker 1: really only just a supplier of components, supplier of elements
- 4:17Speaker 1: to their cars. It's a big booming market, so they
- 4:20Speaker 1: cannot really afford to not to be there, and they're
- 4:24Speaker 1: already building a big supply chain around China. They as
- 4:30Speaker 1: an example, they volks Wagon actually bought two companies or
- 4:34Speaker 1: shares in two companies that have to do with battery
- 4:37Speaker 1: cells and another with electric cars in China just at
- 4:41Speaker 1: the at the peak of the of the COVID pandemic
- 4:44Speaker 1: in April. It sort of tells you that obviously there
- 4:48Speaker 1: is a push to to shorten supply chains, but there
- 4:51Speaker 1: are factors that that are kind of pushing into the
- 4:54Speaker 1: opposite direction, which will make it harder for companies to
- 4:58Speaker 1: make it a big change in the strategy. Yeah, and
- 5:02Speaker 1: I have to say that is something that we have
- 5:04Speaker 1: heard coming out of Asia as well, and our reporters
- 5:08Speaker 1: and analysts who are involved in the tech industry as
- 5:11Speaker 1: a similar message that the likes of Apple have invested
- 5:15Speaker 1: so much in these quite sophisticated supply chains and it's
- 5:18Speaker 1: much easier said than done to start disentangling from China
- 5:22Speaker 1: in particular, there's just a sunk costs involved apart from
- 5:25Speaker 1: apart from anything else. But let's hear I think we
- 5:28Speaker 1: we do have a bit of that interview that you
- 5:30Speaker 1: did with the German pharmaceutical executive Peter Goldschmidt, who is
- 5:34Speaker 1: chief executive of the generic pharmaceutical maker Status, So let's
- 5:39Speaker 1: hear from him. Now, why you really start thinking about
- 5:43Speaker 1: moving victory doing test transfer into higher cross areas where
- 5:47Speaker 1: no one knows who is able to pay it, and
- 5:49Speaker 1: before before this creates an additional risk because of tech
- 5:51Speaker 1: transfer is also a risk we should really think about
- 5:55Speaker 1: relatively in my view, easier fast fixes. I mean, are
- 5:59Speaker 1: you also trying to say that actually there is because
- 6:02Speaker 1: you mentioned forty percent of all active parmaceutical ingredients are Chinese.
- 6:07Speaker 1: I mean, there is really no alternative to China as
- 6:10Speaker 1: a supplier of a key ingredient in what you're producing. No.
- 6:16Speaker 1: I look, the point is there are of us a
- 6:19Speaker 1: lot of alternatives. I could start and buying an API
- 6:22Speaker 1: company and start producing this also in Germany. The only
- 6:26Speaker 1: problem I have is unanormous circumstances. No one will buy
- 6:28Speaker 1: it from me because I'm too expensive. The reason why
- 6:31Speaker 1: it is in China is that the quality China has delivered,
- 6:36Speaker 1: most organizations obviously in Europe couldn't compete on a price letter.
- 6:40Speaker 1: That's why we have this situation. And of course if
- 6:43Speaker 1: people would think, hey, that's an attractive business I should
- 6:45Speaker 1: go to, then more people would do it. But obviously
- 6:49Speaker 1: the business is not so attractive. So if the governments
- 6:52Speaker 1: are building uh the substitutes in order that you have
- 6:55Speaker 1: prices that you can have a company, and API is
- 6:58Speaker 1: a is a worldwide business, you can produced just API
- 7:01Speaker 1: for Ostia. You could do it. It's the question who
- 7:04Speaker 1: pays the price. Everything is technically absolutely possible, absolutely no doubt.
- 7:11Speaker 1: It's just a question of time and money. So in
- 7:13Speaker 1: that sense, you think that government in its hopes or
- 7:16Speaker 1: actually Europe hide. If you look at the whole strategy
- 7:20Speaker 1: these days, there's going to build of a disappointment that
- 7:23Speaker 1: this is not going to be first of all a
- 7:27Speaker 1: quick process and secondly there will have to be a
- 7:30Speaker 1: lot of steps before we even even even go there
- 7:34Speaker 1: in terms of and maybe there are after a quick
- 7:37Speaker 1: fixed solutions like the storage of API, for example in
- 7:40Speaker 1: a gift country, and then you have an assigned producer
- 7:43Speaker 1: in a crisis time who has then to make sure
- 7:45Speaker 1: that they can produce the volume based on this API
- 7:48Speaker 1: right before you do like this big picture. I mean,
- 7:51Speaker 1: my problem in the discussion is not that this could
- 7:54Speaker 1: be a possible solution that you bring more whatever kind
- 7:59Speaker 1: of reduction pharmacy in production back to Germany. It's a
- 8:02Speaker 1: political decision which costs money and has implications on our
- 8:05Speaker 1: direct crisis in Germany. The Otho Skolomowski, thank you very much.
- 8:09Speaker 1: Thank you well. As it happens, I put exactly this
- 8:19Speaker 1: question about the future of global supply chains to the
- 8:21Speaker 1: chief economist of the World Trade Organization, Robert Kopman in
- 8:25Speaker 1: my city Wheek panel that I mentioned at the start,
- 8:28Speaker 1: and we also had Charlie Robertson, chief economist for Renaissance Capital.
- 8:31Speaker 1: On that panel, he was much more outbeat about the
- 8:35Speaker 1: future of emerging market economies than others I've talked to
- 8:37Speaker 1: on Stephanomics in recent weeks. I guess when you listen
- 8:40Speaker 1: to him, you do need to remember that his firm
- 8:42Speaker 1: specializes in investing in emerging market economies, so you can
- 8:46Speaker 1: judge for yourself whether his story stacks up. But I
- 8:50Speaker 1: started by asking Robert Koopman about his forecast for and beyond.
- 8:58Speaker 1: We hear the projection for a global trade for declining
- 9:02Speaker 1: in an optimistic scenario of about thirteen percent, anywhere up
- 9:06Speaker 1: to thirty two percent in a pessimistic scenario. The latest
- 9:10Speaker 1: data suggests we're more on track for the optimistic scenario,
- 9:13Speaker 1: a trade decline of around twelve thirteen maybe four percent,
- 9:17Speaker 1: with a slow recovery. Though for one and into two.
- 9:23Speaker 1: I think the drivers of the slow recovery or weakness
- 9:26Speaker 1: expected weakness and consumption, and particularly expected weakness and investment.
- 9:31Speaker 1: We don't think that firms are gonna have a very
- 9:35Speaker 1: confident view of the future of the global economy, and
- 9:38Speaker 1: I think that UH investment is going to be relatively weak.
- 9:42Speaker 1: Investment is a significant driver of global trade going forward.
- 9:47Speaker 1: I think the likely recovery for trade is a trade
- 9:50Speaker 1: will probably get back to close to its long term
- 9:54Speaker 1: average growth rate of about one and a half times
- 9:56Speaker 1: global GDP growth. But I think it's going to be
- 9:59Speaker 1: a regal globalization. It's going to be a reorganization of
- 10:02Speaker 1: globalization that we've seen in the past twenty or thirty years,
- 10:06Speaker 1: probably more regional supply chains, a lot more digital trade
- 10:10Speaker 1: than we've seen in the past that's been growing fast.
- 10:13Speaker 1: I think it's gonna it's growing faster now and continue
- 10:15Speaker 1: to grow fast. And I think you'll see more flexible
- 10:18Speaker 1: production processes, maybe regional agreements to help to respond to
- 10:23Speaker 1: spikes in demand as a result of either health prices
- 10:27Speaker 1: or climate crisis. So we'll see. I think this reorganization
- 10:32Speaker 1: of globalization maybe um with slower growth, and the long
- 10:37Speaker 1: term implications of slower trade growth usually means slower productivity
- 10:43Speaker 1: growth in the future, so we have significant concerns around that.
- 10:46Speaker 1: There's been a lot of conversation about what happens to
- 10:48Speaker 1: global supply chains as a result of this crisis and
- 10:51Speaker 1: the immediate After all the immediate stages of the crisis,
- 10:55Speaker 1: a lot of talk about bringing production home or at
- 10:58Speaker 1: least diversifying supply chains, not just in response to COVID
- 11:02Speaker 1: but also worries around around China. But we've had some
- 11:07Speaker 1: of our reporting this week. In fact, in Europe we're
- 11:10Speaker 1: looking at companies who have been trying to shorten the
- 11:12Speaker 1: supply chains and struggling and realizing that it's going to
- 11:17Speaker 1: be just too costly to do that. They've got too
- 11:19Speaker 1: much wedded to the very sophisticated approach they had before.
- 11:25Speaker 1: So what is your view when you talk about reorganization
- 11:27Speaker 1: of globalization, is that diversification of supply chains? What is it?
- 11:32Speaker 1: Do you think it's mainly diversification. Most global supply chains
- 11:36Speaker 1: are regional. You think about automobiles. Of automobile supply chains
- 11:41Speaker 1: are regional, but there can be that one part, that
- 11:44Speaker 1: one critical part that is from outside the region that
- 11:49Speaker 1: could be difficult to procure domestically but called up the
- 11:53Speaker 1: entire product. I think they'll find ways to diversify those
- 11:57Speaker 1: supply chains, not bring that want to obscure but very
- 12:01Speaker 1: important product to some local production facility. I do think
- 12:07Speaker 1: they'll use inventories, will night see, particularly for those kinds
- 12:10Speaker 1: of products. Firms will change their just in time inventory
- 12:14Speaker 1: approach to something that's a little more balanced. They'll still
- 12:18Speaker 1: use just in time for those things that they don't
- 12:20Speaker 1: think are that disruptive or that they can easily diversify
- 12:25Speaker 1: UM and have multiple suppliers, but for those things, those products,
- 12:29Speaker 1: those components that they can't my my suspicion is they'll
- 12:32Speaker 1: carry more inventory of that. And keep in mind, you know,
- 12:35Speaker 1: the started as a supply shock in China, but you
- 12:38Speaker 1: know you can have a fire or a hurricane in
- 12:41Speaker 1: the Gulf of Mexico that knocks out your domestic supply
- 12:44Speaker 1: chain just as badly. UM. So you know, I don't
- 12:50Speaker 1: think that the strategy you're reshoring really holds up in
- 12:55Speaker 1: the long term, but weaker growth, weaker investment that does
- 13:00Speaker 1: undermine their integration and globalization. Charlie Robertson, I know that
- 13:05Speaker 1: you're looking at strategy from a global perspective of renaissance,
- 13:11Speaker 1: and I wonder how do you think about the recovery
- 13:13Speaker 1: and particularly the fact that we now are in this
- 13:15Speaker 1: what you might call a messier stage where some countries
- 13:18Speaker 1: are coming in and out of lockdown. We're potentially having
- 13:21Speaker 1: second waves. We're not sure about the consumer. How the
- 13:25Speaker 1: consumer is going to behave in these first few months
- 13:27Speaker 1: of recovery. How are you seeing things? Yeah, I'm chief
- 13:32Speaker 1: economists of an emerging market Frontier Bank, Renaissance Capital, so
- 13:36Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to focus mostly on that. But what
- 13:39Speaker 1: what's been striking to us is the success that emerging
- 13:44Speaker 1: markets have had in fighting the disease, at least in
- 13:47Speaker 1: East Asia. Um, and it's worth remembering the two thirds
- 13:51Speaker 1: of emerging markets equities are don't have the virus anymore.
- 13:57Speaker 1: That's China, Career, Taiwan, Thailand, they make up of M
- 14:02Speaker 1: S c I emerging markets. They have no virus, so
- 14:06Speaker 1: it's not even an issue of a V shape or
- 14:08Speaker 1: a W shape or anything else. Everyone can go back
- 14:11Speaker 1: to restaurants, everyone can go back onto planes, travel, etcetera.
- 14:15Speaker 1: At least internally is back to normal. So it looks
- 14:19Speaker 1: pretty v shaped in in what is two thirds of
- 14:22Speaker 1: emerging markets, either they've beaten the virus or they said
- 14:26Speaker 1: there's nothing we can do to stop the virus. Either way,
- 14:29Speaker 1: I think their economic recoveries are going to look somewhat better. Charlie,
- 14:42Speaker 1: I'm struck by, um what you were saying about em
- 14:47Speaker 1: because when I talked to our emerging market economists, it's
- 14:51Speaker 1: quite a bleak picture that comes out of it. Not
- 14:53Speaker 1: for some of the countries that you were talking about,
- 14:55Speaker 1: but when you talk about India or so that, large
- 14:59Speaker 1: parts of Africa, a big some parts of Latin America.
- 15:03Speaker 1: It feels like the risk is that this crisis is
- 15:07Speaker 1: going to shut the door on a lot of countries
- 15:11Speaker 1: who were on their way into the emerging market and
- 15:14Speaker 1: potentially beyond little make it much harder for them to
- 15:19Speaker 1: continue to progress, and actually they could lose ten or
- 15:22Speaker 1: fifteen years of progress as a result of this. Is
- 15:25Speaker 1: that fair? I mean, you talked about the countries that
- 15:28Speaker 1: have already emerged to some extent, and they are well
- 15:31Speaker 1: represented in the MSc I index and everything else. But
- 15:34Speaker 1: those that hadn't built their capacity by the risk is
- 15:38Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to now in the
- 15:40Speaker 1: conditions of the next piece because they're going to be
- 15:42Speaker 1: so hit by this crisis. Isn't that a concern? I mean,
- 15:46Speaker 1: the numbers I've been talking about in places like sub Sahara,
- 15:50Speaker 1: and what I've been struck by is that the average
- 15:53Speaker 1: age of those dying in the UK is about eighty
- 15:56Speaker 1: years old, and the percentage of Nigerians aged two or
- 16:00Speaker 1: more is zero. The number of Kenyans aged eighty or
- 16:05Speaker 1: more is also zero, and that they're just not going
- 16:08Speaker 1: to be hit in that way. UM. What I think
- 16:12Speaker 1: has actually been much more damaging than the virus for
- 16:16Speaker 1: sub Sahara or lower income countries has been this trend
- 16:19Speaker 1: towards protectionism, the lack of trade, the discouragement of foreign
- 16:24Speaker 1: direct investment globally in recent years. And I think perhaps
- 16:29Speaker 1: the most important change that's going to come upout as
- 16:32Speaker 1: a result of this virus is the political change. In
- 16:35Speaker 1: November in the States, we put out a piece a
- 16:38Speaker 1: month or two ago saying that no US president is
- 16:41Speaker 1: ever re elected after a recession in his first term.
- 16:47Speaker 1: And I've been saying that and upsetting my Democrat friends
- 16:50Speaker 1: in New York for some years about Trump and saying
- 16:52Speaker 1: that he was going to win this election because there
- 16:54Speaker 1: was no recession in the States. Um, And they were
- 16:57Speaker 1: very unhappy with me saying that. Of course, that's change now,
- 17:00Speaker 1: and he has symbolized protectionism more than anybody else in
- 17:04Speaker 1: the global economy. But actually he's really made a difference.
- 17:08Speaker 1: You've seen FDI foreign direct investment flow into America and
- 17:12Speaker 1: not flow out of America. You've had negative FDI or
- 17:17Speaker 1: in fact, if you like, FDI flows net into the
- 17:20Speaker 1: States for the last two years, and that has meant
- 17:23Speaker 1: no FDI into emerging markets. Who wants to set up
- 17:27Speaker 1: a factory in emerging markets when there could be a
- 17:29Speaker 1: big tariff war set against you, um, and it's it's
- 17:32Speaker 1: really hurt growth. Um. So I think there's political change
- 17:36Speaker 1: that now I think inevitable in November. It is going
- 17:40Speaker 1: to be very important. Not that America and Chinese relations
- 17:43Speaker 1: are going to be perfect. They were not, and that's
- 17:46Speaker 1: going to be a rivalry that will continue for years.
- 17:49Speaker 1: But a normal country facing a rival like China would
- 17:54Speaker 1: be building alliances to the rest of the world, not
- 17:56Speaker 1: imposing tariffs on them. Vietnam should be America's best friend
- 18:01Speaker 1: right now. India should be America's best friend right now.
- 18:04Speaker 1: And I think that's what will likely come from the
- 18:07Speaker 1: change of president in November. One I don't think is
- 18:11Speaker 1: gonna We're not gonna see big FDI in there's a
- 18:14Speaker 1: global recession. No one's gonna be putting money into anywhere,
- 18:17Speaker 1: including emerging markets. It's not going to be great from
- 18:21Speaker 1: that perspective. But I think this protections theme which has
- 18:24Speaker 1: been so painful and has supported the stronger dollar. Of
- 18:28Speaker 1: course as well, that protectionist theme that's turning at the
- 18:33Speaker 1: end of this year, and I think that's probably the
- 18:35Speaker 1: most bullish US for emerging markets of all m that's
- 18:38Speaker 1: going to come out of this this unexpected virus and
- 18:43Speaker 1: the impact on the global economy and Robert Coopman, you know,
- 18:48Speaker 1: if you're sitting in a TV economist of the w
- 18:51Speaker 1: d O, do you share Charlie's view that if you
- 18:58Speaker 1: see Trump defeated in the election, that one could continue
- 19:04Speaker 1: to have challenging relations between the US and China, but
- 19:08Speaker 1: it wouldn't necessarily in fit the global trading system, because
- 19:14Speaker 1: I think that's that's an interesting point Charlie made that.
- 19:16Speaker 1: I think I hadn't heard other people tend to say
- 19:19Speaker 1: that the US China battle will infect everything else and
- 19:24Speaker 1: make the global trading system a much more protection is
- 19:26Speaker 1: much more fractured place. But how do you see it? Um,
- 19:32Speaker 1: I don't think that the election is going to necessarily
- 19:38Speaker 1: bring about big positive effects in the trade area. There
- 19:43Speaker 1: are scarring effects. I think, just like we're talking about
- 19:46Speaker 1: the COVID crisis. The political scarring effects from the the
- 19:52Speaker 1: Trump policies are likely to remain. Um. I think there
- 19:58Speaker 1: will be somewhat mitigated and perhaps and I do hope
- 20:02Speaker 1: I'm wrong, significantly mitigated. But the debate around trade started
- 20:07Speaker 1: to change, um you know, in the mid um and
- 20:13Speaker 1: Trump has certainly taken that rather aggressively forward. There's this
- 20:18Speaker 1: focus on US China, do not forget about US du
- 20:22Speaker 1: Those stresses are pretty significant, and they've been there for
- 20:25Speaker 1: a long time and normally the two regions countries have
- 20:31Speaker 1: worked well together to keep those sort of um channeled
- 20:37Speaker 1: into something like the w t O Dispute Body or
- 20:40Speaker 1: competing regional trade agreements, you know, so they've been somewhat
- 20:46Speaker 1: productively managed. But I think that's gonna be something that
- 20:50Speaker 1: remains to be seen how that works out. There will
- 20:54Speaker 1: be a change in administrations in in the fall, actually
- 20:58Speaker 1: change an administration. When happened until the beginning of the
- 21:01Speaker 1: new year, a couple of things, the trade war, tariffs
- 21:06Speaker 1: and the uncertainty around that. So the terrorists on China
- 21:10Speaker 1: costly to the US, somewhat costly to China caused a
- 21:14Speaker 1: lot of trade diversion, contributed to uncertainty, But the bigger
- 21:19Speaker 1: contributor to uncertainty was auto teriffs on the EU, general
- 21:24Speaker 1: trade policy from the United States, the sort of weakening
- 21:29Speaker 1: of the centrality of the w t O in the
- 21:32Speaker 1: in the trading system, which was largely pushed by US
- 21:35Speaker 1: positions in the G twenty. But all of those effects
- 21:39Speaker 1: were relatively small. The COVID effects are huge. I mean,
- 21:42Speaker 1: they're just massive compared to the trade war tariffs, but
- 21:47Speaker 1: both have potential long term implications for growth UM. A
- 21:51Speaker 1: big concern from COVID for me is automation. I think
- 21:55Speaker 1: firms are gonna try to find ways to substitute for
- 22:00Speaker 1: human workers as much as possible. On the service side,
- 22:03Speaker 1: we can easily distribute those workers, perhaps through remote work.
- 22:07Speaker 1: That's a bit harder. In manufacturing, I think we'll see
- 22:09Speaker 1: significant investments in manufacturing that could undermine than UM a
- 22:15Speaker 1: lot of workers and their ability to find good work,
- 22:19Speaker 1: good paying jobs. Thanks for listening to Stephanomics. We'll be
- 22:27Speaker 1: back next week with more on how COVID nineteen is
- 22:30Speaker 1: transforming the global economy. Remember you can always find us
- 22:34Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Terminal website, app or wherever you get
- 22:36Speaker 1: your podcasts and For more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics,
- 22:40Speaker 1: you should follow as Economics on Twitter. This episode was
- 22:44Speaker 1: produced by Magnus Hendrickson and the story we spoke about
- 22:47Speaker 1: at the start of the program was written by Flavia Rotundee,
- 22:50Speaker 1: Jeanette Newman, Joo Lima, and Pyota Skolimowski. Was also edited
- 22:55Speaker 1: by Alas Shaheen. Special thanks to Charlie Robertson, Pyotas Olimowski,
- 23:00Speaker 1: Robert Kopman, and City and Financial Global. Lucy Meekin is
- 23:04Speaker 1: the acting executive producer of Stephanomics and the head of
- 23:07Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast is Francesca Levy. M