Latest / The Curve / TCW85: How Selena Gomez and OnlyFans are shaping billion dollar empires.

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TCW85: How Selena Gomez and OnlyFans are shaping billion dollar empires. · The Curve

• 0:00
  Welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all of the money
• 0:04
  business in stock market too.
• 0:06
  Brought to you by the Curve's research team that's the latest insights on what's happening
• 0:09
  in the stock market, companies, other money related news so that you can stay educated and
• 0:14
  ahead of the curve.
• 0:15
  You can thank us later for sounding smarter than those finance bros you need to know, Patti.
• 0:19
  So we've just had a little belated birthday lunch for sof.
• 0:24
  Belated as a nearly a month.
• 0:27
  Hey, you know, spread out the, I actually love that was so funny.
• 0:31
  We got to dessert, ladies and gentlemen, we're all eaten, I assumed we're about to leave.
• 0:36
  And as a joke, I said, you're going to bring the cake out like full of it.
• 0:41
  No one had bought a cake like I know it was it was a joke is in like,
• 0:44
  hurry up and get us your massage.
• 0:46
  Yeah, like, oh, so there isn't a cake for me.
• 0:48
  And I was like, oh, so me and Danny were like scrambling like, you go to the bathroom and you go
• 0:53
  okay, okay.
• 0:54
  When I went to the bathroom, the thing is I saw Danny go like this with her hands,
• 0:57
  she made a big circle thing.
• 0:58
  So I was like, oh, they did get a big cake.
• 1:00
  Great.
• 1:01
  What was she referring to?
• 1:02
  But pizza, I don't know.
• 1:05
  Yeah, anyway, I went to the bathroom, walked past the bar and I thought, you know,
• 1:09
  why don't I just get some tequila shots for a casual lunch?
• 1:12
  We were all sitting there and I was kind of waiting for everyone to be like,
• 1:16
  pivotly, you know, bring a little tiramisu with like a candle on it.
• 1:19
  And this woman just comes to the six tequila shots and I was like, that's surely not for us.
• 1:23
  I love it.
• 1:24
  I love it.
• 1:24
  Every time I do this, people's faces like they look at the shots and they just kind of assume
• 1:29
  they're going to go past the table and then they're like, realize who they're sitting with
• 1:33
  and they're like, big carous and they're like, no, and it's just like the funnest reaction
• 1:39
  to watch it.
• 1:40
  Oh, so good.
• 1:41
  Anyway, very responsibly had tequila shots with the whole team.
• 1:47
  Yeah, fun.
• 1:48
  And there's quite yum actually.
• 1:49
  It was really good.
• 1:50
  It wasn't that face-grumpy tequila.
• 1:53
  And we got a tiramisu with a candle that as well.
• 1:55
  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 1:56
  Thanks.
• 1:57
  It was really nice.
• 1:57
  They came over and started singing and I was like, hey, and then...
• 2:00
  There was singing in Italian, though.
• 2:02
  Was it Italian?
• 2:02
  Oh, okay, yeah.
• 2:03
  We were at an Italian restaurant.
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  Oh, yeah, sure.
• 2:05
  Do you think that was Italian?
• 2:07
  I don't know.
• 2:08
  I've never heard happy birthday and Italian be sung before, so...
• 2:12
  Also, we just have to really make mention of the shirt that you're wearing today.
• 2:16
  Oh, yeah, I'm channeling like...
• 2:17
  Is it posh spice taking the kids to soccer?
• 2:20
  But it's wearing a white long-sleeved polo,
• 2:24
  but she's not just wearing a long-sleeved polo.
• 2:26
  She's popped the collar and then it popped all day.
• 2:29
  It's because it's five fucking degrees here in London.
• 2:32
  It's so cold.
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  And I want my neck to be warm.
• 2:35
  So I'm popping my collar.
• 2:37
  Yeah, it's kids at soccer.
• 2:39
  It's...
• 2:39
  Everyone was in the off...
• 2:40
  Nobody's seen anything about my clothing,
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  until Sophie Hallwright walks in.
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  What are you wearing?
• 2:45
  You look like a rugby coach.
• 2:47
  And then Eva and I was just like,
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  where's the polo?
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  And Eva and I jumped on the baby and we were like,
• 2:51
  it's like, I felt like I was going back to school
• 2:53
  when the one bully kind of drags in all the other people.
• 2:57
  Where's the polo?
• 2:58
  Who's he then?
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  It's just like...
• 3:03
  She was like, no, that's seriously.
• 3:05
  Where is the box of polo?
• 3:07
  And like, have you got some oranges for half time?
• 3:09
  I was like, okay.
• 3:11
  But if anyone wants to see this video,
• 3:12
  we actually put the full videos on YouTube.
• 3:14
  I don't know if anyone watches them to be honest,
• 3:16
  but they're on there if you want to get a visual.
• 3:19
  I mean, either thing is, I do often copy your clothes.
• 3:22
  So I'm sure in six months' time,
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  I'll be walking with the polo.
• 3:25
  But this one, I am not copying it.
• 3:26
  I don't know if this is what.
• 3:28
  No, I know.
• 3:29
  I've just got...
• 3:30
  It's been so cold this whole week
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  and I just got sick of the same jumpers, you know?
• 3:34
  Yeah, it is Arctic.
• 3:35
  And Eva must be like, no, shut up.
• 3:37
  It's still kind of something.
• 3:39
  It's really not.
• 3:39
  We've had an Arctic snap.
• 3:41
  I think it's cold.
• 3:42
  Watching everyone bike to work this morning.
• 3:44
  And honestly, it was like the depths of winter.
• 3:47
  Mm-hmm.
• 3:48
  Like, people who have balaclavas on and, like,
• 3:51
  North Face puffers and gloves and...
• 3:54
  Londoners know how to do cold, don't they?
• 3:56
  Yeah, I know.
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  I was like, here I was.
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  As I'm biking, any friends just like, all rigged up.
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  I saw this kid, like, stuffed in the front
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  just with, like, a one-piece puffy mittens.
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  And I was like, get a little bit of mittens.
• 4:08
  Oh, that's a bit dramatic.
• 4:10
  It's not, we're not on a mountain.
• 4:13
  Let's not talk about the weather too long.
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  I mean, we know each other better than that.
• 4:16
  Talk about the weather.
• 4:18
  Like, we never.
• 4:18
  Call my dad.
• 4:19
  What's the weather like over there?
• 4:20
  I'm like, dad, surely we're past this after 35 years.
• 4:24
  Now, this topic we actually talked about in our cove weekly newsletter,
• 4:28
  which if you don't get, make sure you get it,
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  because I put blood, sweat, and tears into that thing on Thursday.
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  And normally she puts, you know,
• 4:34
  the different things are in the newsletter normally,
• 4:36
  but this definitely deserved a shining spot in the weekly podcast.
• 4:41
  So Selena Gomez is officially a billionaire.
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  Can we?
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  For a second.
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  If we look at most famous people in Hollywood,
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  is a billionaire a step beyond what most of them would be worth?
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  As in someone like Angelina Jolie or Brad Pitt,
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  are they billionaires or are they more multi-millionaires?
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  I think the reason we've highlighted this is that, like,
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  she's not a billionaire because of her singing or acting,
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  which most actresses and singers are,
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  like, Taylor Swift, billionaire, yeah,
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  but it's all from touring and singing.
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  Whereas Selena, it's all because of her beauty brand, rear beauty,
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  which is quite different to a lot of famous people,
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  in that they're famous because of their skills in acting,
• 5:23
  where she is diversifying her income streams and her portfolio.
• 5:28
  How long has this brand been around for?
• 5:30
  Yeah, so she launched it in 2020,
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  so it's only four years old and it's already worth a billion dollars.
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  Have you used any of these products before?
• 5:39
  No, I haven't, but she is one of the US's youngest female billionaires.
• 5:44
  Is she really?
• 5:45
  Yeah, she's only 32 years old.
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  She's been being a billionaire.
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  So she is a billionaire, she's 32,
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  and it's so the whole point of the story,
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  which I, when I was reading the news that I just thought was awesome,
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  it's the idea that, yeah, the diversified income streams
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  is quite rare for people of that level of fame, right?
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  Because they don't really need to.
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  But if you think about it, I don't know.
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  If you're a model, you can only model for so long.
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  So you should be putting in the ground work to like diversify your revenue streams.
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  If you're an actor like that's going to fade probably too.
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  I think anyone, if they can,
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  should be diversifying their revenue streams.
• 6:21
  You're not even asked, let's start singing.
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  Let's start acting.
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  Do you know what is tragic about this singing career that I've had?
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  Is when I was...
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  Sorry?
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  That you've had?
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  My second career.
• 6:32
  Yeah, yeah.
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  Because I was in the choir when I was in your father.
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  And I remember there was a...
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  The singing teacher asked me to stay behind.
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  We'd just done auditions for something.
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  Oh my god, is it because I'm so good?
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  And I thought I was because I was so good.
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  She asked me to sing with this girl called Tomoyo.
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  And I thought, oh my god, she's putting me into a duet.
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  She's putting me into a duet.
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  So we sung the song.
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  She was like, I was just wanting to see if you can hit the high notes
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  with other people.
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  Because you obviously can't buy yourself.
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  And you couldn't buy other people either.
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  Other people either.
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  Oh my god.
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  So I, in any way, the point is I couldn't hit the high notes
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  but I did make any.
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  I got given a singing solo in my...
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  It was probably a six or something.
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  Wow.
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  And it was just two lines.
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  It was a bit, it was...
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  Don't it feel like the wind is always howling
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  and then I did the next line?
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  And that was my whole singing career.
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  But you could have been the next Taylor Swift.
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  I know.
• 7:26
  Social media wasn't around.
• 7:27
  You know, so it couldn't take off.
• 7:28
  It was probably fortunate that it wasn't around.
• 7:31
  Actually, I did get Oliver understudy as well.
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  And I was quite...
• 7:34
  Sorry, you know, Oliver Twist.
• 7:36
  Oh yeah.
• 7:36
  I was very into musicals.
• 7:38
  Yeah.
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  Quite tone deaf, if I'm being completely honest.
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  But I did love it.
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  And I got Oliver understudy.
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  Now, in hindsight, quite a good thing
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  that I didn't get the lead.
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  She had to chop all her hair off.
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  Oh my god.
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  They made her fully commit.
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  They didn't even give her a whip.
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  For a kid.
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  The pool.
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  She was like a 14-year-old girl that lines me off.
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  America's next top model.
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  And you know, it's got to me.
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  Yeah, that is quite mean.
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  Yeah.
• 8:04
  Sorry.
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  Back to Celine.
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  I think that she's one of the few celebrities
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  that comes across as a genuine,
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  leather-nice person.
• 8:12
  Yeah, yeah.
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  And that's why her brand,
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  they're saying that her brand has done so well
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  because it's all based on authenticity.
• 8:17
  Because it's like, you know, there's no fakeness.
• 8:19
  It's all about, I mean, it's makeup.
• 8:21
  So I'm kind of like, I will think, it's...
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  I think the one thing I would have said
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  if starting a makeup brand in 2020,
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  did you say?
• 8:30
  In 2020, yeah.
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  Starting a makeup brand only four years ago,
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  and it'd be worth a billion dollars.
• 8:34
  Well, I just would have thought more,
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  there's so much competition.
• 8:37
  How on earth could you launch a brand now
• 8:40
  in such a saturated?
• 8:42
  It is now.
• 8:43
  I think in 2020, though,
• 8:45
  is almost the best time to launch a beauty company
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  because, yes, it seems saturated now.
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  But back then, it wasn't nearly a saturated.
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  You're worth it.
• 8:54
  No, it was...
• 8:56
  Back then, it was just pre-COVID.
• 8:58
  And yes, you might think that people
• 9:00
  not going out and all of that, they don't wear makeup.
• 9:02
  But we were looking at ourselves on a screen
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  for like eight hours a day, you know?
• 9:07
  Some people, you look at yourself morning and night in a mirror,
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  whereas this is like multiple hours a day,
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  and you're like, you could put some mascara on,
• 9:15
  or I could put some lip yarn.
• 9:16
  And that's why the Botox and like plastic surgeons,
• 9:19
  like all of them took off.
• 9:20
  Really?
• 9:21
  They've done fantastically well since COVID.
• 9:23
  Whoa.
• 9:23
  Yeah.
• 9:24
  So she only makes five percent of it
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  and come now, less than five percent from touring.
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  And one percent from acting.
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  So go, Selena.
• 9:32
  Also, so yet to be released,
• 9:35
  we have a really interesting podcast coming out.
• 9:37
  Oh, do we?
• 9:38
  On the next topic.
• 9:39
  Have we recorded it?
• 9:40
  Yeah.
• 9:40
  Hold on.
• 9:41
  I need to know what's going on.
• 9:43
  No, in the past.
• 9:43
  Oh, yes, we do.
• 9:44
  Yeah.
• 9:45
  Oh my gosh, I'm so excited about this.
• 9:46
  I say we spoke to the most amazing woman.
• 9:50
  And it has something to do with the next topic
• 9:51
  around to talk about.
• 9:52
  Yeah.
• 9:53
  I mean, I feel like we can just say who it was, don't we?
• 9:55
  Grace, where's Lace?
• 9:57
  Grace, where's Lace?
• 9:58
  She is so interesting.
• 10:01
  Yeah.
• 10:01
  So she works on any fan spoiler.
• 10:03
  That's what we're up to talk about.
• 10:04
  Yeah.
• 10:04
  But we talked about like financial domination
• 10:07
  and what it's like to work on the platform.
• 10:10
  Honestly, I just left that
• 10:13
  with my eyes and brain just blown up.
• 10:15
  And I say it was wild.
• 10:18
  Yes, you do.
• 10:18
  Yeah, one time I can say it was wild.
• 10:21
  But in the best way,
• 10:23
  I thought it was such a fascinating conversation.
• 10:24
  Yeah.
• 10:25
  No, it was very, very interesting.
• 10:26
  But so only fans is not a public company.
• 10:28
  But the reason I wanted to talk about it
• 10:30
  was like, I think it's a great platform
• 10:32
  that empowers women to
• 10:34
  control their own content
• 10:35
  in the content that goes out.
• 10:36
  But the owner,
• 10:37
  this guy Leo Redvinsky,
• 10:40
  I don't love a guy either.
• 10:41
  I know.
• 10:42
  Yeah.
• 10:43
  Do I sound a bit manhatery?
• 10:45
  I don't know.
• 10:45
  No, it's not manhatery.
• 10:46
  But I get what it's just like,
• 10:48
  it's again, why did a woman not come up with this idea?
• 10:52
  You know, why did we not take it
• 10:54
  when and where the one's using it the most?
• 10:56
  It's just changed.
• 10:57
  It's what you've always said.
• 10:58
  They are dare of investing or business mindsets.
• 11:00
  You know, you can think about your own experiences,
• 11:03
  your own problems,
• 11:04
  the things that you want to be solved
• 11:05
  and actually do something about it.
• 11:07
  It doesn't have to be done by a guy.
• 11:09
  And it's like going back to Selena.
• 11:10
  It's like, now people will see
• 11:12
  a woman running a billion dollar beauty company
• 11:16
  and be like, I can do that too.
• 11:17
  When there's no representation,
• 11:19
  you don't strive for that goal.
• 11:20
  You don't see that so you don't go for it.
• 11:22
  And so yeah, it is owned by a man, unfortunately.
• 11:25
  But he has received last year.
• 11:27
  So in 2023, he received nearly a $500 million dividend
• 11:32
  from only fans.
• 11:34
  So that's not a salary.
• 11:35
  That's just a dividend that he received.
• 11:37
  And that was a 40% increase on 2022
• 11:40
  when he received nearly $400 million dividends.
• 11:43
  So he's received over $1.3 billion in dividends
• 11:48
  since he bought the business in 2018.
• 11:51
  What?
• 11:52
  So 1.3 billion dividends.
• 11:54
  Can we figure out how much he's worth?
• 11:57
  So he has net worth about $3 billion.
• 11:59
  So that would take into account what he owns,
• 12:01
  of only fans, et cetera.
• 12:03
  But yeah, it's...
• 12:04
  There's so much money.
• 12:06
  Revenue alone of only fans is $1.3 billion.
• 12:08
  Like it's a massive, massive company.
• 12:10
  300 million people use only fans.
• 12:13
  It's so as paying customers.
• 12:15
  Yeah. Take away what this company does.
• 12:17
  Like it's growth is amazing.
• 12:19
  Like it's users.
• 12:20
  Like it's fanbase is increasing.
• 12:21
  All of that, take it away for like what it is.
• 12:24
  If I saw this company, I'd be like,
• 12:25
  right, this company's going to IPO so surely.
• 12:27
  Like it's doing so, so well.
• 12:29
  But I think, and this is my personal opinion,
• 12:33
  a company like this would never IPO.
• 12:35
  Why?
• 12:36
  Because there'd be people that would be so against it.
• 12:38
  It wouldn't get the appropriate value.
• 12:40
  There'd be companies that are like,
• 12:41
  we don't want to invest in quote unquote pornography,
• 12:43
  which I know it's not.
• 12:44
  But it would probably be lumped into that category.
• 12:47
  Like I can't imagine sitting around at my old work,
• 12:51
  me pitching the idea of investing in only fans.
• 12:53
  And me being like, you know what?
• 12:54
  I've done lots of research on the platform.
• 12:57
  But maybe it'll be a similar to the playboy.
• 12:59
  Playboy used to be listed.
• 13:01
  Yeah. And so and you couldn't, a lot of computers
• 13:04
  weren't allowed on playboy because it was like band site.
• 13:07
  And so endless playboy, playboy, playboy,
• 13:10
  Hugh Hefner's company.
• 13:11
  What was the company though?
• 13:12
  They had the magazines, they had hotels,
• 13:14
  they had like, it's a whole brand.
• 13:15
  Yeah.
• 13:16
  But anyway, analysts had to get their computers
• 13:19
  specially unlocked.
• 13:21
  So they could go onto the playboy website and research.
• 13:24
  And I was like, a man researcher.
• 13:27
  Imagine going to an IT department and be like,
• 13:29
  look, I'm the endless covering playboy.
• 13:31
  And I really need my computer unlocked.
• 13:35
  My computer security like.
• 13:37
  And just like the quality of the content.
• 13:38
  That'd be like, I mean, should we?
• 13:39
  You're being the tenth person that's come up today
• 13:41
  to say you're the analyst on playboy.
• 13:43
  We're quite funny anyway.
• 13:45
  Do you not think though that similarly to a reader
• 13:49
  where they IPO'd and it was,
• 13:51
  people could invest in it rather as companies
• 13:54
  that that would be a good way for it to happen?
• 13:55
  Yeah, definitely.
• 13:56
  I think you could do like a crowdfunding kind of way or something.
• 13:59
  I just think I can't imagine the finance industry
• 14:02
  is that open-minded that they would invest in this.
• 14:05
  And actually, because the whole point of being a public company
• 14:08
  is that you get appropriately valued
• 14:09
  for what you deliver in terms of earnings growth, etc.
• 14:12
  So if you do IPO, but you know half the people,
• 14:16
  half the people that invest kind of invest in you
• 14:18
  or we won't invest in you, what's the point?
• 14:19
  Do you know what I mean?
• 14:20
  You may as I'll stick to it.
• 14:21
  Anyway, that is just my theory.
• 14:23
  I'm moving on to more exciting news.
• 14:26
  Inflation.
• 14:28
  Sophie loves inflation.
• 14:29
  I reckon I've got a penny drop moment for you.
• 14:31
  Okay.
• 14:32
  I was so stoked when I was writing this down this morning.
• 14:34
  Okay, I'm going to preface the context.
• 14:36
  So the US inflation figures came out this week.
• 14:39
  They're at 2.5 percent.
• 14:41
  Remember, we always kind of want to be in the band of 2 to 3 percent.
• 14:44
  Okay.
• 14:45
  You know, for any country that's pretty healthy.
• 14:46
  It makes you spend, but not spend too much.
• 14:49
  Not be like, fuck that's expensive when you order the checkout.
• 14:52
  All of that.
• 14:53
  So 2 to 3 percent is pretty good.
• 14:55
  What are we at the moment in the UK?
• 14:57
  UK's 2.2 percent.
• 14:59
  Chit.
• 14:59
  Yeah.
• 14:59
  Inflation?
• 15:00
  Inflation's not really one thing anymore.
• 15:01
  Well, I guess you ain't.
• 15:03
  Oh, God.
• 15:03
  Yeah.
• 15:04
  So a lot of countries now are kind of back into the region
• 15:08
  that is more appropriate, rather than being at like 9 percent.
• 15:12
  US was at 9.1 percent in June 2022.
• 15:16
  You know, this is the lowest level of inflation
• 15:18
  that the US has had in the last three years.
• 15:20
  So it's good, good sign.
• 15:21
  Now, I want to put this in perspective
• 15:23
  because we've had a few people reach out and be like,
• 15:27
  can you explain like, what does 2.5 percent mean?
• 15:30
  It's on last year, but it's still going up.
• 15:31
  It's not going down.
• 15:32
  Like, yeah, it's not negative.
• 15:33
  It's not like prices are going back down.
• 15:36
  It's been rising at an expense.
• 15:38
  Except inflation technically is low.
• 15:40
  So non inflation is low.
• 15:42
  But prices are still going up by 2.5 percent.
• 15:45
  So prices are still rising.
• 15:47
  They're just rising more slowly.
• 15:49
  They're not going up by 9 percent.
• 15:50
  They're going up by 2.5 percent.
• 15:52
  So if we take an example,
• 15:54
  let's wind back to 2021.
• 15:56
  You go to the hairdresser.
• 15:57
  Yeah.
• 15:57
  And they charge you $80 for a haircut.
• 15:59
  You're like, cool.
• 16:00
  Thanks.
• 16:00
  And then come next year.
• 16:02
  You go to the same hairdresser to get the same haircut.
• 16:04
  It's 2022.
• 16:05
  They charge you $87,
• 16:08
  because inflation is 9 percent.
• 16:10
  So your haircut has gone from $80 to $87,
• 16:13
  purely just because of inflation's increased by 9 percent.
• 16:16
  Same haircut, same service, same hairdresser.
• 16:19
  2023, inflation's gone up by 4 percent.
• 16:22
  Again, from the 87.
• 16:24
  Yeah.
• 16:24
  So now your haircut costs you $91.
• 16:27
  So you've gone 80, 87, 91.
• 16:30
  And now this year,
• 16:32
  inflation's gone up by a small amount,
• 16:33
  it's only 2.5 percent, but it's still going up.
• 16:36
  So now your haircut is $93.
• 16:38
  So even though in the last year,
• 16:41
  the haircut's only gone from 91 to 93.
• 16:43
  Yeah.
• 16:44
  Since 2021, that is a 16 percent increase,
• 16:48
  if we add them all up.
• 16:50
  Okay.
• 16:50
  So inflation, this is just inflation increases,
• 16:54
  have made your haircut go from 80 to $93.
• 16:57
  So if your wages have not increased by 16 percent
• 17:01
  over that time, you are now worse off.
• 17:05
  I think that makes it a lot of people don't understand
• 17:07
  that your salary or your hourly or all of that
• 17:11
  should be moving at the same rate as inflation,
• 17:13
  because it doesn't mean you're getting an increase.
• 17:14
  And when your boss comes to you and they're like,
• 17:16
  look, you've been doing so well,
• 17:17
  we're going to give you a 2.5 percent increase.
• 17:19
  You're like, that's not even an increase.
• 17:21
  Like if that was from 2021,
• 17:22
  you'd be like, well, actually, I need 16 percent
• 17:24
  to just be like on-ha.
• 17:26
  So yeah, over the last three years,
• 17:29
  that haircut has gone up by a 16 percent.
• 17:32
  And yeah, if your salary hasn't, you're worse off.
• 17:34
  And that's what we mean when we talk about purchasing power.
• 17:36
  Your purchasing power has decreased.
• 17:38
  You can no longer afford.
• 17:39
  You might only be able to get half a year down or something.
• 17:42
  Just a fringe cut.
• 17:43
  Yeah, just a fringe.
• 17:44
  So yeah.
• 17:46
  I think that is a really good example.
• 17:47
  And it makes sense why people are still like,
• 17:49
  but why is it still so expensive?
• 17:51
  It's not because right now inflation tights,
• 17:53
  because it's been such a huge jump in such a short space.
• 17:56
  It's almost like it's gone from like,
• 17:58
  I know a lot of people listen and can't say,
• 17:59
  but if you go like, you do a big step up,
• 18:01
  and then it's like, little step, little step, little step,
• 18:03
  you're still up, you know?
• 18:04
  Like it's not like you've stepped back down.
• 18:06
  Yes.
• 18:06
  So this is kind of...
• 18:07
  Is there a way to go backwards into inflation?
• 18:09
  Can they go into negatives?
• 18:10
  Deflation is really bad.
• 18:12
  Oh, yeah.
• 18:13
  But shouldn't it be a good thing at this point, though?
• 18:15
  No, what you want is...
• 18:17
  You want like wages to just catch up.
• 18:19
  You don't...
• 18:19
  If you go into deflation,
• 18:21
  nobody is spending,
• 18:22
  because it's like,
• 18:24
  well, it's going to be cheaper tomorrow.
• 18:25
  Oh, you know, it's like,
• 18:26
  why would I spend money? I'll just wait.
• 18:28
  It's like seeing a share price drop and drop.
• 18:30
  You're like, well, I'm not going to buy it till it's low,
• 18:31
  and then all in ends are buying.
• 18:32
  Yeah, exactly.
• 18:33
  So that's why 2 to 3% is like,
• 18:35
  it's stimulating enough,
• 18:37
  but it's not like crazy.
• 18:39
  People aren't feeling hurt.
• 18:40
  They're not being worse off like all of that.
• 18:42
  So it's manageable.
• 18:44
  And the reason people are excited about this
• 18:45
  is that now the US Central Bank,
• 18:47
  which is like the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• 18:49
  or the Bank of England here,
• 18:51
  is that this means that now inflation's under control,
• 18:54
  they can start cutting interest rates.
• 18:57
  And when they cut interest rates,
• 18:59
  it's good for the stock market,
• 19:00
  because people are like,
• 19:02
  they're not getting as much of a return
• 19:04
  by having the money in the bank,
• 19:06
  because interest rates are coming down.
• 19:07
  Oh, my.
• 19:08
  So they're like,
• 19:09
  like right now, they're kind of like,
• 19:10
  cool, I'm getting like 5% or 6% for literally...
• 19:12
  Oh, interest rates.
• 19:13
  So as a like, you're interest on the stuff in the bank.
• 19:16
  Because I actually did notice the other day,
• 19:18
  I had a small amount come into my account,
• 19:20
  but it was like $13 interest.
• 19:22
  Which for me, I was like,
• 19:23
  that's a lot.
• 19:24
  That's more than I feel like I've had before.
• 19:26
  It's because I transferred my emergency
• 19:28
  if you fund into a high interest savings account.
• 19:31
  So I did get quite a good return on that.
• 19:33
  Like the interest return was good.
• 19:34
  But what you're saying is if interest rates go down,
• 19:37
  people are like, there's no point in keeping the money in the bank.
• 19:39
  If I'm doing like 1 or 2%,
• 19:40
  I may as well put in the stock market
• 19:42
  and try and get like a bit 9 or 10.
• 19:44
  But the same with mortgage rates,
• 19:46
  it's like, but people are like,
• 19:47
  yay, interest rates are coming down.
• 19:48
  That's good.
• 19:49
  So if you've got a mortgage,
• 19:50
  you're like, yay, because it means mortgage rates come down.
• 19:53
  So the movement interest rates,
• 19:55
  if interest rates are falling,
• 19:57
  it benefits people debt,
• 20:00
  but it's negative for people with savings.
• 20:03
  Because yeah,
• 20:04
  so it's a time when you really should not be
• 20:06
  keeping your money in the bank
• 20:08
  as when interest rates are low.
• 20:09
  It's kind of a standard rule.
• 20:11
  But it's a time that you might be like,
• 20:13
  well, I might start that business and take out a loan
• 20:16
  because debt's so cheap.
• 20:18
  Or I might actually apply for that mortgage
• 20:20
  because mortgage rates are coming down.
• 20:22
  So yeah, it's such a penny drop moment.
• 20:23
  Yeah.
• 20:25
  We've got there eventually.
• 20:26
  Some other quick topics to talk about.
• 20:29
  Apple announced its new iPhone this week.
• 20:31
  Oh, yeah.
• 20:31
  What was the difference in this one?
• 20:32
  I think I like, what could they possibly bring out?
• 20:34
  I know.
• 20:35
  It's like slightly better camera,
• 20:36
  runs a bit quicker, marginally better battery life,
• 20:39
  which is what they bring out every second time.
• 20:41
  I was going to say aren't all these things just the standard now.
• 20:43
  It's all that much of it.
• 20:44
  You've put in capital's big deal.
• 20:47
  Well, is it a big deal?
• 20:48
  It's a big deal because
• 20:49
  iPhone still account for over half of Apple's revenue.
• 20:52
  So investors are looking at it like,
• 20:54
  what are the new features?
• 20:55
  You know, is it going to be game changing?
• 20:57
  I see.
• 20:58
  Yeah, so that's right.
• 20:59
  Do we think those things are game changing?
• 21:00
  I wouldn't have thought that was super exciting.
• 21:02
  I don't think it's super exciting to be honest.
• 21:04
  Yeah, I think they need to make a brand new statement to the market.
• 21:08
  Like we are still cool and innovative.
• 21:10
  So you think?
• 21:10
  Yeah, I agree.
• 21:11
  Also for all the UK people listening,
• 21:14
  right move, which is like the trade me property of the UK.
• 21:17
  Okay.
• 21:17
  Yeah.
• 21:18
  So they have about 90% market share of property listings here in the UK.
• 21:22
  They're like the big dog.
• 21:24
  For for for rental purchase, very, very good.
• 21:26
  Everything.
• 21:26
  Yeah, everything.
• 21:27
  And last week,
• 21:29
  REA, which is the number one property company in Australia,
• 21:34
  bought it, bid to buy it.
• 21:36
  Isn't property quite a geo-targeted,
• 21:40
  like it's true?
• 21:41
  Domination.
• 21:42
  Wow, that's kind of cool.
• 21:43
  Yeah, so REA is to be listed on the ASX
• 21:46
  of the Australian Stock Exchange.
• 21:48
  And it's owned by NewsCorp,
• 21:50
  which is owned by Rupert Murdoch.
• 21:51
  Oh, yeah.
• 21:52
  So he's a bit of a media mogul.
• 21:54
  But yeah, they made an offer for right move.
• 21:58
  Its share price at the time was $552.
• 22:01
  And they made a bid for it.
• 22:04
  It was just up of like $700 a year.
• 22:06
  So the share price went up about nearly 30% one day.
• 22:09
  They had to if they bought all the property.
• 22:11
  Like imagine if he did trade me in New Zealand.
• 22:14
  Some in the US, like maybe, wow.
• 22:16
  I wonder why they'd be interested in taking...
• 22:18
  Well, right move's done literally nothing.
• 22:20
  It's share price, sorry.
• 22:21
  It's done literally nothing for five years.
• 22:23
  It's funny, takeover offers usually come
• 22:26
  when the company's been lazy
• 22:28
  or its share prices really under the pump and like really low.
• 22:33
  And you kind of get it a bargain.
• 22:34
  You know, takeover offers come when companies are considered
• 22:37
  quote unquote bargains.
• 22:39
  I was waiting for you to say on their knees,
• 22:41
  that used to be the go for the companies on their knees.
• 22:44
  Yeah. So anyway, that's so scary.
• 22:46
  I guess the structure of a takeover.
• 22:49
  So a company like Aria would be like,
• 22:50
  we want to take you over.
• 22:51
  We're willing to pay all the investors just over $700 a share.
• 22:57
  And some of them might be like,
• 22:58
  woohoo, amazing.
• 22:59
  We've been waiting five years for this.
• 23:01
  But the company has come out right move and said
• 23:03
  to investors don't sell.
• 23:04
  We think it's still, they're still undervaluing the company.
• 23:07
  So we think it's not enough.
• 23:08
  So the whole point of a takeover is that when you use
• 23:11
  that example of 700,
• 23:12
  it's meant to be a premium.
• 23:13
  So it's meant to be so it's all those people
• 23:15
  that have been invested for five years and seen nothing,
• 23:17
  all of a sudden getting a return of some description.
• 23:20
  And that's like, that's why the share price jumps
• 23:21
  because everyone's like, oh my god,
• 23:23
  amazing, what are they going to pay?
• 23:25
  Incredible.
• 23:25
  And that's why they have to make it enticing.
• 23:27
  They can't do a takeover offer
• 23:29
  with the price that it currently is
• 23:30
  because everyone will be like, well, why would I sell it?
• 23:32
  Yeah.
• 23:33
  So they have to make it enticing.
• 23:34
  They never go in with their best offer.
• 23:36
  And then the choice in the company's best interest
• 23:38
  to make it higher, right?
• 23:39
  Because they want to be bought out as high as possible.
• 23:41
  So the companies come out saying, don't sell,
• 23:43
  like we think it's still undervalued.
• 23:44
  And then RIA will probably come back with another offer.
• 23:46
  The most companies do that though?
• 23:48
  Some don't.
• 23:48
  Like some might be like, actually, yeah, we don't think.
• 23:52
  It's kind of like you calling each other's bluff.
• 23:53
  It's like, will they put another offer in
• 23:56
  or is this the most that they'll pay?
• 23:58
  You know, like you kind of,
• 23:59
  it's kind of like a big dick energy kind of thing.
• 24:02
  So right moves kind of out,
• 24:02
  so we still think it's undervalued.
• 24:05
  RIA might now come back and say, okay, we'll go to $8.
• 24:08
  And then, yeah, so it's kind of just like
• 24:10
  an negotiation tactic now.
• 24:11
  Did you say 700 and then seven?
• 24:13
  So when I was talking about 700, sorry,
• 24:15
  everyone that was like 700 pence.
• 24:17
  700 pence is seven pounds.
• 24:19
  Okay, yeah, 700 pence.
• 24:20
  And that's what they quote on the London Stock Exchange.
• 24:23
  Very confusing.
• 24:23
  By companies shares if they're in the middle of a takeover.
• 24:27
  So you could buy now if you thought it will go up.
• 24:31
  RIA will come back with a better offer
• 24:33
  than you can do like a little arbitrage.
• 24:35
  But I mean, you're making like, let's paint it.
• 24:38
  Yeah, I mean,
• 24:39
  I mean, a lot of people do do that,
• 24:43
  but it's not the best strategy.
• 24:45
  Because then if they don't, if they walk away,
• 24:47
  then it's going back down to 500 pence.
• 24:50
  You could have a full-on career,
• 24:52
  literally just doing this with people doing money.
• 24:54
  Yeah, yeah, you know, not having a job
• 24:56
  and just keeping an eye on the news
• 24:57
  and making random little bents here and there and things.
• 25:00
  That's what a trade it is.
• 25:01
  Yeah.
• 25:03
  No, I don't mean paid as a trader though.
• 25:05
  I mean, just at home trader.
• 25:07
  Oh, that's what a day trader is.
• 25:08
  Day traders, yeah.
• 25:09
  Oh, yeah.
• 25:09
  You can work for a company or you can work yourself.
• 25:11
  But you're sitting there trying to find these opportunities.
• 25:13
  You might be trading far in exchange.
• 25:15
  You might be trading stocks.
• 25:16
  I can imagine there would be kind of a difference.
• 25:17
  If you get quite excited by all the things happening.
• 25:20
  Yeah, a lot of people make lots of money on it,
• 25:21
  but it does have to kind of be a full-time gig
• 25:24
  if you want to be successful in it.
• 25:27
  Everyone should experience for us class at least once in their lives
• 25:29
  and Annie shouldn't miss out just because she can afford it.
• 25:31
  Help me, I'm poor.
• 25:33
  So I was like, Vic, you never fill out
• 25:35
  financial flex or financial fault house.
• 25:37
  Okay, so we've got a plan, right?
• 25:38
  We've got a podcast plan behind the scenes
• 25:40
  where we have like a chicken,
• 25:42
  we have our three main stories blah, blah, blah.
• 25:44
  And at the end, we're meant to do our financial feelings
• 25:46
  like what's been going on, any news in your life
• 25:48
  and Vecquez forgets to go in and write anything down.
• 25:50
  I'm talking about my feelings.
• 25:51
  Yes, you do.
• 25:52
  You just do all the research and then it's like
• 25:54
  it's like in our meetings when we do,
• 25:56
  okay, we've done all the serious stuff
• 25:57
  and then we're like, what's the fuck use in the fuck years?
• 25:59
  Which is when we're like, thanks for this.
• 26:01
  Not thanks for that.
• 26:02
  And we always skip it, you know, we need to really,
• 26:05
  okay, get into our fields.
• 26:07
  Do you have any faux pas or...
• 26:09
  So yes, speaking of the Italian that we just had,
• 26:12
  last night I also had Italian.
• 26:14
  So yes, sorry, sorry.
• 26:17
  Sorry, I didn't mean it in a like a sexy way.
• 26:19
  Yes, man, what are you talking about?
• 26:23
  But I was writing the newsletter
• 26:25
  and I had a scheduled catch up,
• 26:28
  cancel on me.
• 26:29
  So I was like failing a bit, sorry for myself.
• 26:32
  Sorry, scheduled catch up is sounding dodgy.
• 26:34
  What's happening there?
• 26:35
  Like I was supposed to catch up with a friend quote unquote
• 26:38
  and they bailed.
• 26:40
  So anyway, I was like, you know what, fuck it.
• 26:42
  I'm just going to order, I'm going to order pizza.
• 26:44
  And I wanted lots of different flavours.
• 26:47
  So I ordered three pizzas for myself
• 26:49
  and had a piece of each
• 26:51
  and then put the rest in the fridge.
• 26:53
  And I remember going down,
• 26:55
  so this is a financial faux pas, obviously.
• 26:59
  What's the flex here?
• 27:00
  You freezing it for the next week for your lunch?
• 27:02
  I mean, that would be great.
• 27:03
  No, but I remember getting it off the overguy
• 27:04
  and I was like, thank you.
• 27:05
  And I was like, he probably thinks
• 27:07
  I've got like a party upstairs or something.
• 27:08
  But I wanted three pizzas for yourself.
• 27:11
  Such a hungus.
• 27:12
  But I just wanted the different,
• 27:13
  like it was really expensive and so,
• 27:15
  yep, wouldn't encourage that.
• 27:16
  Oh my gosh.
• 27:17
  She was so random sometimes.
• 27:19
  I know.
• 27:20
  And then today,
• 27:21
  I forgot we were going for Italian again.
• 27:23
  But that's all right.
• 27:24
  Surely tonight you'll be adding that pizza.
• 27:26
  We're going up for dinner.
• 27:27
  Oh, fuck off.
• 27:28
  I'm going as well.
• 27:29
  Maybe like three days later, I'll eat it.
• 27:31
  But actually, I think all last.
• 27:33
  Yeah, same.
• 27:33
  Surely you put that in the fridge and eat it on like Sunday night.
• 27:36
  Yeah, yum.
• 27:36
  Yeah.
• 27:37
  What's yours?
• 27:38
  You know how when you order something online
• 27:41
  and you get that dogman hip when you order it?
• 27:43
  And then when it arrives, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 27:45
  Another dogman hip is from great.
• 27:46
  Well, so I ordered these bedside tables for my room.
• 27:49
  And I did spend, like, it was an investment.
• 27:52
  I was thinking I hope that I have these for like five plus years.
• 27:55
  And they arrived and I didn't feel guilty about it
• 27:58
  because I'd thought about the purchase.
• 28:00
  Yeah.
• 28:00
  I'd come to terms with it when it got there.
• 28:02
  I opened it.
• 28:03
  I loved them.
• 28:04
  And I started thinking about cost per use.
• 28:07
  The fact that they're my bedside table
• 28:09
  and they're sitting there every single day
• 28:10
  and I get to see them.
• 28:11
  I've just sort of changed my perspective.
• 28:13
  I think especially after our wardrobe chat
• 28:15
  because last week we didn't episode on our wardrobes as an investment.
• 28:20
  And one of the things we spoke about is buying quality
• 28:22
  when you think about it as your cost per wear.
• 28:24
  It's, I don't know, it's just you just think about things differently.
• 28:27
  And I thought if I'm living in my room,
• 28:28
  we're about to enter winter
• 28:29
  and spend so much time in my room, probably.
• 28:32
  Having nice things is a really good investment.
• 28:34
  Yeah.
• 28:34
  I started to notice when I'm buying things
• 28:36
  whether it be a mirror for my room.
• 28:38
  If I'm going to spend 200 pounds on it,
• 28:39
  that sounds expensive,
• 28:40
  but I'm going to look at it probably 50 times a day.
• 28:43
  Probably not that many times.
• 28:44
  Wow.
• 28:45
  But you're only, like, it's the cost per use.
• 28:47
  We're like, we're so far.
• 28:48
  She's sharing a mirror.
• 28:50
  She's sharing the most of a mirror.
• 28:52
  Thank you so much for listening to the Curve Weekly.
• 28:55
  Make sure you hit the subscribe button
• 28:56
  to stay up to date with all the many business stock market news.
• 28:59
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• 29:01
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• 29:02
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• 29:02
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• 29:03
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• 29:04
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• 29:06
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• 29:08
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• 29:10
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• 29:13
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• 29:16
  Bye.
• 29:17
  Bye.
• 29:18
  That's it?
• 29:19
  Yeah.
• 29:19
  See you next Tuesday.
• 29:20
  Well,
• 29:23
  see you next Tuesday.
• 29:24
  I mean, Monday.
• 29:25
  No, actually though, new episodes out every Tuesday.
• 29:31
  Okay, quickly, the Curve was created to empower and educate you about investing,
• 29:35
  but we are not financial advisors.
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  Our platform exists for educational purposes only,
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  and it doesn't provide personalized investing advice for your individual needs,
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  and should not be relied upon to make an investment or financial decision.
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  And always remember to do your own research
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  before making any investment or financial decision.
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  We're here for any knowledge and support you need,
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  but the final call is always yours.
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  And thanks for being here.
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  You got this.
• 29:58
  Yeah, we know you got this.