Latest / What Bitcoin Did / Why This Bitcoin Bull Market Is Different | Checkmate

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Why This Bitcoin Bull Market Is Different | Checkmate · What Bitcoin Did

• 0:00
  I'm seeing that interest from people who actually have money to protect.
• 0:06
  I haven't been on this Bitcoin wave, but like they're watching this low volatility
• 0:09
  climb and they're going, I think I actually need some exposure now.
• 0:13
  There's just a lot of things that are starting to feel a little bit like we're in a
• 0:15
  bulletproof bull and that's okay, right?
• 0:18
  This is normal for this kind of cycle, but things can really start to accelerate from
• 0:22
  this point forward.
• 0:23
  There is a good chance that we get some serious momentum to the upside.
• 0:26
  But as that happens, if we leave this stair-stepping pattern, we do move into more unsustainable territory.
• 0:33
  And then you start getting closer to a meaningful top.
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• 2:52
  Checkmate.
• 2:53
  My favorite person to interview, I think.
• 2:55
  I always love talking to you.
• 2:56
  You're the person I bug offline the most,
• 2:58
  asking questions, saying, am I being stupid here?
• 3:02
  But vibes are good right now.
• 3:03
  Bitcoin is at 117K.
• 3:07
  Yes.
• 3:08
  I was just commenting on how much I like that little dashboard
• 3:10
  you've got floating behind you.
• 3:11
  It's pretty neat.
• 3:12
  Yeah, yeah.
• 3:13
  Shout out to Chester.
• 3:14
  so chester was i think he's our was our longest subscriber on the patreon on the old what bitcoin
• 3:19
  did when we had one um he's an absolute legend he's making these called the blocktron i like it
• 3:24
  i don't know if they're for sale yet but they're pretty fucking cool but i've got this like janky
• 3:29
  setup behind me because about a week ago i was upgrading the studio i was going to put these
• 3:35
  like nice shelves i got in and i drilled straight through a water pipe right behind me nice so that's
• 3:41
  put on hold yeah you need to find yourself a stud finder or something mate well i had a stud finder
• 3:46
  and i was using it and it said there was like something there oh you said you thought it was
• 3:50
  a stud and you went well i drilled through the stud and then through the water pipe and so
• 3:54
  this place was a fucking mess so i'm on a bit of a janky setup right now but we will make it happen
• 4:00
  it's worth it yeah that's that's the joy of uh of home ownership and uh you know making a mess of
• 4:05
  things exactly um i'm probably not going to touch a drill again for a little while but we're here
• 4:10
  Anyway, checkmate. I probably spend about 10 minutes a week looking at charts. It's really like, what's the Bitcoin price? Do I feel rich or poor? That's about it. But I do think even still, like when you've been in Bitcoin for long enough, you just get kind of a vibe of what's happening, like where the market's at. And right now I'm feeling pretty fucking bullish. What's your kind of just give me your vibe take on what's happening?
• 4:37
  Yes. So strangely enough, this is actually why on-chain data is so interesting to me,
• 4:41
  because it's all about vibes. It is literally all about, you don't look at charts, but you have a
• 4:47
  feeling, right? And it's generally based on the price. It's based on how long you've been in the
• 4:51
  market. It's based on your average cost basis. It's also based on your last buy. There's nothing
• 4:56
  quite like buying and immediately goes red 10%. You're like, God, that sucks. Even if you've been
• 5:00
  in this market for like eight years, you buy and it goes down, you're like, oh, I should have
• 5:05
  weighted, right? But that whole aggregate sentiment, that's really what we're looking at.
• 5:10
  We're looking at all the profit, all the loss. Now, I think the numbers at the moment in aggregate,
• 5:16
  the unrealized profit. So this is everyone's obviously got their cost basis. You've put
• 5:19
  X amount of money into the system. And what is your cost basis delta between where the price
• 5:25
  currently is and where the average guy is? There's $1.4 trillion, $1.4 trillion worth of
• 5:31
  unrealized profit in the system. An incredible number, right? When you really think about it
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  and the market, the metric that I look at, in my opinion, it's the most important metric in Bitcoin.
• 5:42
  Whenever someone asks me about, is Bitcoin being adopted? Is it growing? All this good stuff.
• 5:48
  You can point to transaction counts. You can point to the ETS, but at the end of the day,
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  it all boils down to the realized cap. So let's value every single coin when it last transacted
• 5:57
  on chain. This is the backbone metric and it just crossed a trillion dollars. And the cool thing
• 6:02
  about this, if you've been around for a long time, you've been stacking coins since 2019, 2020, 2021,
• 6:09
  you've bought it 10K, 15K, 20, 50, 100, all of those coins. If you just DCA and just like stick
• 6:16
  it in your cold card, all of those coins are saved at that price. The last time that you
• 6:21
  transacted them. Now, yes, there's imperfections here or there for individuals, but like in a broad
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  scale, it actually shows us how much wealth has been saved and stored in Bitcoin. So for this
• 6:30
  thing to cross over a trillion dollars, you're basically seeing that all of these investors have
• 6:35
  trusted a trillion dollars worth of their hard-earned savings, granted, denominated in fiat,
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  but that's what most people earn. We've trusted a trillion dollars to the system to look after it.
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  And there's then 1.4 trillion worth of total paper gain. So the whole market is really,
• 6:53
  really up feeling really good that's great now if you imagine that let's make that you know keep
• 6:59
  the cost basis there at a trillion bucks let's push the price up another 2x 3x 4x suddenly that
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  that paper gain it starts getting a bit stupid so that's why you actually end up getting a top
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  eventually is because too many people go it's just a big number but uh you know i don't think we're
• 7:17
  there yet um certainly a lot of like when you normalize this stuff because like yes there's a
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  trillion worth of wealth. There's 1.4 of paper gains, but that's actually a fairly normal statistic.
• 7:27
  So this is where we look at things like MVRV ratios and basically how in profit is the system.
• 7:33
  It's nicely in profit, but it's not at some kind of extreme level. We're still within the bell curve
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  of normal Bitcoin bull market environments. Once we start getting to the right tail where things
• 7:45
  get a little bit stupid, you've really got to get up into the 160, 180k type range before those
• 7:51
  kind of levels get hit. But we saw that 80,000 Bitcoin come back to life. I mean, people are
• 7:56
  saying, why would you sell now? It's like, bro, he's up $10 billion. It literally doesn't matter.
• 8:01
  But the market took it like a champion. It's amazing. That 80k is one of the other, 80k Bitcoin
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  sold is one of the really bullish signals, I think. There was a ton of speculation on who it
• 8:11
  was selling. I don't know where the Roger Verr came from. I think it was literally,
• 8:15
  someone just guessing on twitter oh people people love to just throw random guesses out there and
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  they say it with such conviction you're like oh what if it is and then i i kind of fell for the
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  narrative that it was maybe going to be used to fund one of these treasury companies but it's
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  that's officially been sold now right i believe so so they went through galaxy um and this is one
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  of those things like everyone's speculating and saying oh was it sold was it not sold and meanwhile
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  the realized capture says yeah we've just seen a coins have just changed hands move on and so
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  80,000 Bitcoin sold on the market.
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  It made like, what was it?
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  What was it?
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  Like a 3%.
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  3.5%.
• 8:47
  Yeah.
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  It was basically nothing.
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  Really, I mean, on a weekend too.
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  So pretty amazing stuff.
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  Is that the most substantial single sale of Bitcoin that we've ever seen?
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  I don't know if the most it could be.
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  I think it's definitely in the, it'll be in the top 10 for sure.
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  I did write a piece on this.
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  I'm just trying to remember the numbers.
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  Certainly in terms of the on-chain world, the metric that it did hit an absolute all-time
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  high for was CoinDay destroyed.
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  So every Bitcoin in the supply accumulates one coin day per day that stays stationary.
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  And when that was spent, because I mean, they're 2011 coins, right?
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  So you've got 80,000 every day since 2011, just chunking up all these coin days.
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  So it was the largest expenditure of coin days that we've ever seen.
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  The only one that comes close to that was when the Mt. Gox trustee moved their coins in 24.
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  I think it was like July or August or something.
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  and they were held since I think 2017 because they did a couple of tranches where they moved
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  them to the trustee and there's a few transactions there. So that's 140,000 Bitcoin, but held for a
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  shorter period of time. So it definitely blew that out in terms of like realized profit metrics. I
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  mean, very rarely do you just see someone just like move $9.6 billion worth and just like, yeah,
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  it's just one transaction. I mean, it's pretty wild that someone stuck around that long.
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  It's insane. But like when you say, of course he sold like it's $9 billion, but what, like,
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  I don't understand what he's selling for.
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  Who needs $9 billion right now?
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  Yeah, well, it's a good question because,
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  and if I believe in Galaxy's press release,
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  they basically said it was part of the client's
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  inheritance planning, which, you know,
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  when you really think about it, look,
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  there's every chance that it could be just like
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  they sold it, they wanted to realize it,
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  they lock in that cost basis,
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  there's obviously a tax implication,
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  they may want to move it to somebody else,
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  they may want to move it from them to a trust,
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  there's all sorts of reasons why they might do this.
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  But when you're moving that kind of money, how often do you think about what you've got to do with your cold storage, right?
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  If you just don't come home one day, imagine having to do that with a $10 billion lock.
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  There's a whole legal structure involved in doing something like that.
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  So who knows? There's a thousand and one reasons why they might have done it.
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  But to me, I just think it's really, really cool that A, we can see that these coins are back alive.
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  and strangely enough that i actually i'm going to use this as a bit of a a talking point because i'm
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  still thinking through and writing my piece on quantum it's just taking me ages to get my head
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  around it but there's obviously this debate around should we freeze coins right this is one take of
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  it i'm i've the more i've thought about this the more i'm like no we can't because what if they
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  were considered to be lost and then someone comes back and by the way we don't know if quantum moved
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  it or if someone just decided yeah now's the time for me to upgrade my cold storage so we can
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  never know that a coin is lost. We can only estimate how many coins are lost because really
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  the owner is the only person that actually knows they don't have the keys. So we can measure things
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  by coin day destruction and coin day accumulation. This is what Dave Puel and I did with Coin Time
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  Economics. We built a fairly simple, I mean, it is simple. It's quite a simple, elegant system
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  to not actually need to know how many coins are lost, but we can still discount them based on the
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  aggregate amount of coin day destruction and holding, you can correct a lot of our metrics
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  to adjust for those lost coins in a fairly simple way, but we don't actually need to know which ones
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  are lost, which was a really, really cool innovation from that little study.
• 12:15
  I think the quantum argument is super interesting. I can't remember if we spoke about this on the
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  podcast or privately, but this idea of whether we need to freeze coins or not, I'm just,
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  as of right now, I'm 100% sure that my belief is that we cannot freeze any coins.
• 12:29
  I agree. And I don't understand the argument of we should steal them before a bad actor steals them.
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  But I do think that this is going to become a very kind of hot topic in Bitcoin over the next few years.
• 12:41
  And I also think I might end up being on the losing side of that argument, even though I think morally it's the right stance.
• 12:48
  Yeah. I mean, from my perspective, if let's just use Satoshi as an example here.
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  if we freeze the coins for the petoshi entity if we are freezing the our decision right the network
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  has chosen and the debate really centers around what is the actual risk is somebody getting into
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  the quantum field and actually extracting the private key and then being able to spend those
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  coins is that a breakdown of bitcoin's security assumption or are bitcoiners freezing someone's
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  coins on their behalf a breakdown of the security assumption and you know from my perspective he who
• 13:21
  have the private key has the coins. How they come across that private key, now that doesn't
• 13:25
  necessarily mean it's a legal ownership because you can steal someone's private key. Legally,
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  they are the original owner's coins, but you have possession of them. So, you know,
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  where's the possession is nine-tenths of the law, something in that ballpark. So if we are freezing
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  somebody else's coins, we are making a decision for them. Yes, there's the argument that we can
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  have like flag days and say you have to upgrade by this time, but if they choose not to upgrade
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  to a quantum resistant system and their coins get stolen, that is their decision. That is their
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  choice. We didn't make that choice for them. And the other thing I come at this from,
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  and maybe this is just where I sit as a Bitcoiner, I do not believe that price is a relevant metric
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  for consensus code. I think that the market price is completely irrelevant when we're talking about
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  consensus level code. So from that perspective, what is the actual impact? If you're the Potoshi
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  entity, your coins get stolen either by Bitcoin as freezing them or by quantum stealing them,
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  right? Or you come back and spend them. So in either way, unless you're the one that spends
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  them, you lose your coin. So the outcome for Potoshi is identical, no matter what happens,
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  their outcome is exactly the same unless they come in and take them themselves. So in that regard,
• 14:37
  if the rest of the system is then saying, I'm going to freeze your coins,
• 14:41
  what is our motivation for that? It's actually because we're afraid that the price is going to
• 14:45
  go down. The other one is, you know, maybe the Bitcoin security system is broken, but this is not
• 14:50
  a like out of left field thing where people are starting to talk about this, which is, by the way,
• 14:54
  is really good. This is not like a surprise. And honestly, when I think about it, if a million
• 15:00
  coins came back on the market or one point, whatever it is, one point, I think it's 1.2 or
• 15:05
  something, what we call zombie coins, coins from the old addresses that haven't moved since there's
• 15:09
  been a Bitcoin price, most likely lost early miners, Potoshi, all that. If those coins come
• 15:15
  back to market, there will be a line out the door of Bitcoin saying, yeah, I'll step in and buy a
• 15:19
  million sats of Satoshi's coins. Absolutely. Of course I would. So I think the market will actually
• 15:24
  absorb that. There's another claim. I think Jameson Lopp talked about this, and I disagree
• 15:29
  with this point, that there's address reuse in exchanges. And if Binance doesn't upgrade their
• 15:36
  system full well knowing that there's a quantum threat coming, I mean, that's on you really.
• 15:43
  and then what are you going to do launder 500 000 coins from binance through what right so unless
• 15:49
  like north korea or one of these actors gets them i mean like the odds are it's going to be either
• 15:53
  you know us or chinese government it's going to be a high-flying tech company what are they going
• 15:58
  to do steal some steal binance's coins and launder them through the dark market like you know there's
• 16:03
  a bunch of things that just don't really make sense so from my view yes it's a threat yes it's
• 16:08
  probably a long way away um in my view yes we have to start thinking about it soon but honestly
• 16:13
  freezing someone else's coins, I think is actually far worse than just allowing the market to deal
• 16:18
  with it. So that's where I sit on the general issue. And just to add to that, Bitcoin as a
• 16:25
  system enshrines property rights. And if we break those property rights because we're scared of what
• 16:29
  happens to the price of Bitcoin, I think you can't have that conversation without acknowledging that
• 16:34
  the price of Bitcoin is because it enshrines property rights. This is all reflexive. And
• 16:38
  And without property rights, is Bitcoin worth $117,000?
• 16:42
  The idea of Bitcoin, in my opinion, is more important than a known technological bug that
• 16:48
  we can all see coming.
• 16:49
  We can all start thinking about it in advance.
• 16:51
  We can all do something about it.
• 16:53
  Solve it for, give everybody the choice and the option.
• 16:57
  Once you break the social contract, you're a shitcoin like everybody else.
• 17:00
  And you can't repair that.
• 17:02
  There's no recovery for that.
• 17:03
  So in my opinion, the Bitcoin idea is far more important than the Bitcoin code, actually.
• 17:10
  So really, you have to protect the idea the most.
• 17:13
  And that is that they are your coins and I cannot take them off you.
• 17:16
  So in my view, it's actually in my best interest to say, no, you cannot freeze that guy's coins because otherwise you could freeze mine too.
• 17:23
  So stuff here.
• 17:24
  But there is the kind of market participants where price is hugely, hugely important, even short term price.
• 17:29
  And I'm thinking of like the sailors of the world here.
• 17:31
  And they obviously have a massive kind of social pull.
• 17:39
  And I think whatever Saylor comes out and says is going to resonate with a lot of Bitcoiners.
• 17:43
  I don't know where Saylor will stand on this, but I would assume his incentive is to freeze
• 17:48
  funds to make the price move as little as possible.
• 17:51
  So I would go down the path, and I think this is interesting because we start getting into
• 17:54
  consensus code.
• 17:55
  I also just look at this thing and say, what is the most likely outcome?
• 17:58
  like realistically, let's peel away all the narrative. What is the most likely outcome?
• 18:03
  The most likely outcome is that we're going to do nothing. That Bitcoin will not change because
• 18:08
  not enough people will get on board. So therefore the most likely outcome is that people can shout
• 18:13
  and yell and scream and run nodes and all this kind of stuff. But the truth is that I just do
• 18:18
  not think that we're not going to get some kind of a hard fork out of this and we're going to get
• 18:21
  two coins I don think that how this plays out So you know we all part of the same system and I think the most likely outcome is that we actually don do anything We probably implement some kind of quantum resistance scheme People can optionally move across
• 18:36
  but I do not think we're going to get broad-based consensus for everybody to free someone else's
• 18:41
  coins. And in that regard, people are going to, they can yell and scream and they're not going
• 18:45
  to achieve any ground whatsoever. I think that's how Bitcoin most likely plays out because the
• 18:49
  rules are hard to change by design. Well, I think we're on the same page with that.
• 18:53
  But back to the 80,000 coins have moved.
• 18:56
  Does that change anything when you're looking at on-chain?
• 18:59
  Did you assume that those funds were lost?
• 19:01
  Well, I never look at individual UTXOs, but we can basically say over a period of time,
• 19:07
  it's likely that there's this batch of coins.
• 19:11
  And I think actually this is the first time we look at the HODL waves, which is basically
• 19:15
  a breakdown of all the coins by age bracket, how long they've been dormant for.
• 19:20
  if you look at the 10-year hodl wave 10-year plus it's basically this continuously growing curve
• 19:26
  because as coins move into that 10-year bucket i mean most coins that haven't moved in 10 years
• 19:31
  are most likely lost now yes sometimes they get spent but very very infrequently and you know yes
• 19:39
  if you were to do like a a one-day diff you'd see that there's sometimes declines in that hodl wave
• 19:44
  but as a just a visual look at the chart you've never seen it go down except for this so this is
• 19:50
  really the first time that the 10 year old hotter wave has actually declined at a visible scale on
• 19:56
  the chart which is pretty cool um so you know very rare this is not a common event these kind of
• 20:01
  things so how many of these entities are still out there remains to be seen how many more 80
• 20:06
  thousands of this does this dude have you know like i often hear people talk about oh what about
• 20:11
  that guy who sold 10,000 Bitcoin for a piece. I'm like, the dude was mining on GPUs. He's fine.
• 20:16
  You know, he's got plenty of coins. Don't worry about that 10,000. So, you know, look,
• 20:20
  how many of these things are out there? There's not many. In fact, I was up in Brisbane recently,
• 20:25
  I had the pleasure of meeting a bloke who has actually-
• 20:28
  Thanks for telling me you were here, mate.
• 20:29
  I know. I was at a dinner and you weren't invited. But he was, mate, this bloke was
• 20:34
  mining like 25 days after Satoshi and he's got like mined block Coinbase rewards, which by the
• 20:40
  way. They're so old that they don't show up on mempool.space. You've got to go to other block
• 20:44
  explorers. But yeah, it was mining like 25 days after Satoshi. So these guys are out there and
• 20:50
  it's just amazing to think that this is possible and feasible. That's incredible. Is this 80,000
• 20:56
  Bitcoin sale an anomaly or are you seeing sort of selling pickup now? No, no. This is very much
• 21:02
  a unique event. Even not in size, but as a trend, is selling increasing? Yes, it is. It is. I mean,
• 21:09
  it always does. And this is the thing. So there's basically two ways you can interpret the data.
• 21:14
  When we see the market moving higher, which it has been since April, which it did in November,
• 21:20
  December, which it did in March last year, there's two ways you can interpret it. Lots and lots of
• 21:27
  people decide to consolidate their UTXOs when the market rallies, or lots and lots of people like to
• 21:33
  take profit when the market goes up. It's funny. So the way I look at it, like, let's just look at
• 21:38
  What is Occam's razor?
• 21:39
  Yes, somebody consolidated their wallet.
• 21:41
  But yes, we are seeing a lot of sell side.
• 21:44
  This is the reason why the market doesn't go straight up.
• 21:46
  This is a line I use all the time.
• 21:48
  And I think it's actually really instructive and useful.
• 21:51
  Markets are a process, not a result.
• 21:53
  And I think we saw today that Saylor bought 21,000 coins, right?
• 21:57
  Two and a half billion.
• 21:59
  And people are like, why isn't the price in the stratosphere?
• 22:02
  It's like because someone sold 80,000 Bitcoin and he bought 21,000.
• 22:06
  And so if you've got another four sailors, now we can equalize things, right?
• 22:10
  So it's one of these dynamics where it just takes time.
• 22:13
  Markets, like when a coin gets sold, it doesn't immediately go into like the deepest, darkest,
• 22:17
  cold storage in a vault somewhere.
• 22:19
  It goes to some guy who's now going to start trading it and then someone else is going
• 22:23
  to trade it.
• 22:24
  And these coins move around the system.
• 22:26
  They buy and they sell trading ranges.
• 22:28
  And then eventually, at some point, some hodler comes in and just DCAs out a million
• 22:33
  sats, puts it away.
• 22:34
  sayler comes in dca's out 21 000 coins puts it away but there's still all these coins like
• 22:40
  bouncing around there's trade ranges there's derivatives there's all sorts of stuff that's
• 22:45
  just how markets work but uh you know it's all in the good fullness of time i know you're joking
• 22:50
  there about people consolidating while price is ripping but like mempools are pretty empty
• 22:54
  are you surprised that the mempool is so empty as price is ripping like this is a pretty new
• 22:59
  phenomenon right so it is and it's it's a little bit interesting because the last time we saw the
• 23:03
  market at all-time high for all the intents and purposes the last time we were at all-time high
• 23:09
  in the mempool was this dead was the second all-time high in 2021 now which is a scam all-time
• 23:15
  high which is a scam all-time high now there's a number of differences uh if you look at i mean
• 23:20
  pretty much any metric you want to look at if you go back and look at that second all-time high in
• 23:24
  21 now we can't really use these metrics today because they're a bit spoiled because of um
• 23:30
  ordinals and inscriptions and all that shit. But you had a massive lot. We didn't have any of that
• 23:34
  back in 2021. So one active address was one active address. And I'll explain why it doesn't count
• 23:39
  today. One transaction was one transaction, right? We're all just talking about monetary
• 23:44
  transactions, broadly speaking. Massive lower high. That second all-time high in 21, all of
• 23:50
  these were like a big bearish divergence. MVRV, which is the unrealized profit held by the system,
• 23:55
  massive bearish divergence. So how can you have price at a higher level, $69,000 versus the first
• 24:02
  all-time high in April at $64,000? How can the price be higher, but everyone's unrealized profit
• 24:06
  is lower? It's because a bunch of people have now sold the top. You've got a pool of all these new
• 24:11
  investors with a very, very high cost basis. Now that part is actually true today. The average cost
• 24:17
  basis is much, much higher. It's like $76,000 on average per person at the moment. I use a metric
• 24:23
  called the true market mean. I won't go into the details of it. Short-term holder cost base is like
• 24:28
  105K. And I've got these heat maps I look at that show where all the supply has been bought and sold.
• 24:34
  That 95 to 100K region, there's like 40% of all the wealth invested. I was talking about
• 24:40
  RealizeCap before. It's above 90K. That's an extraordinary stat. 17% of the wealth invested
• 24:47
  has a cost basis in our current trade range, 17%. For similarity's sake, everything below 50K,
• 24:57
  if you value every coin when it last moved, literally every coin below 50K, 17% of the wealth.
• 25:02
  And we've got that in our current trade range. We've been here for two and a half weeks.
• 25:06
  So it just gives you a bit of a sense of scale of how quickly these things move. Now on the
• 25:10
  transaction counts and active addresses, we can't really compare them because the way that
• 25:15
  ordinals and inscriptions work and they play around with the witness data, you can fit more
• 25:20
  transactions in. So transaction counts are at all time high, but a lot of these guys are using either
• 25:25
  algorithms and bots to trade this stuff. Or they treat a Bitcoin wallet like an Ethereum address
• 25:33
  where they reuse the same address. So in order to not double count, one active address may be
• 25:38
  sending 20 transactions in a day. So it's still one active address. So some of those activity
• 25:43
  metrics are a bit bung at the moment. But the other one is on-chain volume is very, very high.
• 25:50
  So we've got a small number of transactions, but the size of these transactions is massive.
• 25:56
  So what does that really speak to? Big money. The network is being used by fewer transactions,
• 26:02
  like the skew has gone towards institutional size money. So we're not seeing retail punters. We're
• 26:08
  not seeing like in 2017, people used Bitcoin as the casino chip to go and punt on Binance.
• 26:13
  So in 2021, we had that retail fervor because money printing and stimulus and all that stuff.
• 26:20
  This cycle, it's, yes, there's an ETF component.
• 26:23
  Yes, there's more of these institutions moving around, but retail aren't on chain.
• 26:29
  That is a very, very different dynamic.
• 26:32
  How long it takes retail to come back?
• 26:33
  I mean, I see posts all the time saying, when retail, when retail.
• 26:36
  It's like, when retail, you don't want retail.
• 26:38
  Retail means end of days.
• 26:40
  That's the top.
• 26:41
  You actually don't want that.
• 26:43
  The fact we're not seeing retail right now is indicative of both the market structure.
• 26:47
  They're going in through ETFs, a lot of them, but a lot of them just don't care.
• 26:51
  They really just don't care.
• 26:52
  And really, in my last two years, I've had no phone calls from people who are no-coiners.
• 27:00
  I've had lots of phone calls from Bitcoiners saying how to lever up.
• 27:03
  But increasingly, I am getting questions, and mostly in-person, questions from people
• 27:09
  who actually have money.
• 27:10
  So these are people who've got wealth behind them and they're saying, I'm not that scared about Bitcoin anymore. Can you tell me a bit more about it? And for those kinds of things, I know a lot of Bitcoiners have the same story. I don't try and orange pill people anymore, but if you have a question about it, I've got all the time in the day.
• 27:26
  and I think a lot more people are in that kind of world and I'm seeing that interest from people who
• 27:30
  actually have money to protect increasingly a lot of retirees as well who are going yeah I haven't
• 27:36
  been on this bitcoin wave but like they're watching this low volatility climb and they're going I
• 27:41
  think I actually need some exposure now so I think all of this stuff is just it's a different system
• 27:45
  I think you're on the verge of saying this cycle is different but every cycle is different
• 27:50
  let's hold that for a second because I do have I was looking through your newsletter
• 27:54
  and there are a few really interesting charts that I wanted to pull up and get you to go through
• 27:59
  and let me just get these so yeah I mean every cycle is different no no we're coming back to
• 28:04
  this because this behavior pattern is the same human fear and greed is the same so talk us through
• 28:09
  this chart we've got here yeah so SOPA is my Swiss army knife I use this for everything so
• 28:14
  what we're looking at is short-term holders so people who've bought within the last five months
• 28:19
  people love to debate me and say short and long-term five months doesn't matter the statistic
• 28:23
  says five months, the probability of a coin being spent once it's been held for five months
• 28:27
  is diminuous. It's so small, it's logarithmically small. And actually, there's a power law. There's
• 28:33
  a very clean power law that Glassnode did a study on a couple of months back where they showed that
• 28:37
  it really is a power law between how long a coin has been held and the probability of being spent
• 28:42
  on any one day, which is pretty neat. And what we're looking at for short-term holders, 95 plus
• 28:49
  percent of the on-chain volume every single day without fail is short-term holders. So they just
• 28:54
  dominate all the coins, move around, move around, move around until they finally hit a cold card
• 28:59
  and go off market. Now, I mentioned MVRV before, which is the unrealized profit or loss. SOPA is
• 29:06
  the sister metric. It's the realized side of the equation. So it shows us the average profit or
• 29:11
  loss being locked in by coins that are on the move. So for short-term holders, there's this
• 29:16
  typical pattern is in bull markets, most of the time people are profitable. Short-term holder
• 29:23
  metrics are really, really powerful because they are literally the only ones who can buy the top.
• 29:28
  You cannot have a long-term holder buying the top because they haven't held their coins for five
• 29:32
  months yet. So when short-term holder SOPA goes into the red, it actually means that local top
• 29:38
  buyers, they bought the top, they watch the market go red, red, red, and then they finally go, ah,
• 29:43
  damn it, I've got to sell now because I'll buy back later. And they sell the exact bottom.
• 29:48
  So for me as a hodler, that's when I actually DCA, when I see those kinds of events.
• 29:53
  So what we're seeing in this bull structure is it's most of the time profitable with really
• 29:59
  healthy retests of that breakeven level, which shows that those top buyers are getting flushed
• 30:03
  out and then we spring back again. So it's got this structured bull market behavior.
• 30:09
  When we get too much profit taking, so the way that I think about this,
• 30:12
  if the dude who bought two weeks ago is looking at his portfolio and going i'm a genius then
• 30:18
  something like you're probably a little bit overheated in the short term so whenever this
• 30:21
  metric gets too high it doesn't mean that a top is going to get put in at some kind of global level
• 30:26
  short-term holder metrics are generally speaking they're more about local stuff but you know like
• 30:31
  for me as a hodler again bring it back to like how i personally dca i'm probably not going to
• 30:37
  lump sum a big chunk in when there's stacks of people who are feeling quite happy about their
• 30:42
  recent swing trade starting to sell on my head. I'm going to wait until that cools down a little
• 30:47
  bit and then I'll step in. So it's just a tool to help me manage my emotions. It helps me manage
• 30:52
  kind of where the local cycle is. And just, I've been in this market long enough. I'm just tired
• 30:57
  of buying high and then watching it go lower when I know it always goes lower. It always goes lower
• 31:02
  in the short term. So I'm just like shifting my DCA over just a little bit to try and correct for
• 31:07
  that. All right. I want to go through all these charts because the question I have kind of
• 31:10
  encapsulates all of them. So then we've got the Bitcoin realized profit and loss. So talk us
• 31:15
  through this one. Yeah. So we mentioned before the realized cap. So the realized cap looks at
• 31:21
  every coin based on the price when it last moved. Some guy buys at 10K, sells at 120K.
• 31:28
  Someone had to come in with the delta. And this is actually, this is one of my favorite tools
• 31:32
  for measuring demand. Because even though Realized Profit is a sell-side metric, that guy had to come
• 31:38
  in with extra money. The original cost basis was 10K. The new cost basis is 120. He's got to come
• 31:44
  in with $110,000 times the coin value, right? If it's half a Bitcoin or whatever it is, he's got to
• 31:49
  come in with extra capital. So the reason that the Realized Cap increases is because old money
• 31:55
  is selling to new money. There is a rotation of the holder base. And this is really, really
• 32:01
  important. So for every buyer, there is a seller. For every price, it literally requires a buyer and
• 32:06
  a seller on both sides of the book. So when you're measuring sell-side pressure, which is what this
• 32:11
  metric is, we're actually measuring demand because you're measuring the opposite, the inverse.
• 32:16
  When you see 80,000 Bitcoin gets sold, that means that someone came in and bought 80,000 Bitcoin.
• 32:22
  Now, it could be many someones, but someone. When a seller buys 21,000 Bitcoin and the price doesn't
• 32:28
  go up, I wonder why. It's because
• 32:29
  someone sold 21,000 Bitcoin.
• 32:32
  You know what I mean? This is just how the system works.
• 32:34
  Now, the chart
• 32:36
  that we're looking at here is basically that volume.
• 32:38
  I've normalized it to BTC terms so
• 32:39
  we can pair across cycles.
• 32:41
  And I believe I do a four-year just to
• 32:43
  try and look for when is
• 32:46
  it hot, when is it overheated,
• 32:48
  too much sell side. I've just
• 32:50
  applied a four-year standard deviation.
• 32:52
  So when you go above half standard deviation, you're
• 32:53
  usually in a ripping bull. When you get above
• 32:55
  two standard deviations, it's
• 32:58
  getting pretty steamy in the room. So really what I look at here, it's all about incentive
• 33:03
  and action. When people are feeling really profitable, we started this conversation by
• 33:08
  saying, you're feeling good. There's $1.4 trillion in the system. That's the incentive.
• 33:12
  If you wind that up to $2 trillion, $3 trillion, $5 trillion, suddenly someone out there is going
• 33:18
  to go, yeah, it's time for me to lock in that $10 billion worth of profit. At some point,
• 33:23
  it may not be you, it may not be your friend, but it's some guy out there is going to take that
• 33:27
  profit. What I'm trying to look at here is what's the incentive, unrealized profit and loss. And
• 33:32
  then this one is telling me, did they actually sell? Because you actually need sellers to create
• 33:35
  a top. If you don't have sellers, then the market just keeps climbing and climbing and climbing
• 33:39
  until it finds them. So really price is actually the result of that supply and demand balance.
• 33:45
  It's going to inflect higher when it cannot find the supply. It's going to inflect lower when it
• 33:50
  cannot find the demand. That is literally how markets work. And this just gives me a nice tool
• 33:55
  to understand when are we getting too much sell side relative to recent history? When are we getting
• 34:01
  too much demand, right? Trying to understand both sides of the equation.
• 34:05
  All right. And then the last one, we've got the bull market corrections.
• 34:09
  I mean, this is just such an amazing chart. I think I described it in the video for the post
• 34:14
  saying like, this is one of those charts that is worth a thousand words. So for those who are
• 34:18
  listening, basically what I'm looking at is the last three bull markets. So 2015 to 2017,
• 34:24
  I used the 2018 bottom all the way through to the 2021 second top, and then our current cycle
• 34:30
  since basically FTX blew up. So ignore the drawdown from the all-time high. We're only
• 34:36
  looking at the drawdown within that bull market uptrend. How deep are they? So if you go back and
• 34:41
  look at the 2015 to 17 cycle, getting a correction of 30, 40, 50% wasn't uncommon, but maybe not
• 34:48
  50. 40 was like about as bad as it gets. The key difference between 2015, 17 and today,
• 34:55
  because we've only had two 30% corrections. And we've got to remember that we are a hundred times
• 35:00
  bigger in market cap size than we were back then. And yet the drawdown profile is actually
• 35:05
  less bearish this cycle than it was back then, which is incredible because think about the amount
• 35:11
  of sell-side pressure. We're not talking about a million dollars or $10,000 worth of sell-side.
• 35:17
  We're talking about $10 billion worth of sell side today, and the market is barely clocking.
• 35:23
  The bears can't get any ground, getting a 30% correction.
• 35:27
  The other interesting thing about 2015-17 versus today, the drawdowns back then were
• 35:33
  much quicker.
• 35:34
  If you went away for a weekend and came back, you missed a 40% correction, and then it's
• 35:38
  springing back to all-time highs.
• 35:40
  Their corrections today may take six months, eight months.
• 35:44
  They're much longer, more drawn out processes, which creates a lot of frustration and boredom.
• 35:50
  But really, the cycle's not actually that far away from where it typically is.
• 35:54
  But we've got to remember that it's much, much bigger.
• 35:57
  But the middle period, and strangely enough, this chart's actually really good.
• 36:01
  I've been rethinking the idea of cycles.
• 36:04
  A lot of people like to use the halvings and the bull market tops and the bull market peaks and all that stuff.
• 36:09
  I've actually been using a very different framework more recently.
• 36:11
  they're not too far away from those kind of delineation points, but I use two delineation
• 36:16
  points and I think we've had three cycles and this chart kind of shows it. The first cycle,
• 36:21
  in my opinion, ended on the 2017 top. So that period was very adoption driven. You can see it
• 36:28
  in every metric. I mentioned the transaction counts and volumes and just you name it. There
• 36:33
  was a very different pattern back in that pre-2017 top era. Very organic. We barely had a trading
• 36:41
  view chart. There's very few hedge funds. There's no leverage. There's no stable coins.
• 36:45
  It was just buy Bitcoin and maybe speculate on some of these old coins. But it was a Bitcoin
• 36:50
  dominated organic cycle. And the psychological side of this is people were responding to Bitcoin
• 36:56
  as this brand new thing No one knew anything about it What is this cool thing Yep That middle period from the 2017 top until FTX blew up very volatile A great metric if you want to actually study this
• 37:09
  Just use the Mayer multiple, a ratio of price in the 200-day.
• 37:13
  You'll see back in 2017, it had this nice rhythmic pattern.
• 37:16
  It continued to bounce off the 200-day, and it was quite structured.
• 37:21
  2018 to 22, massive amplitude, straight down, straight up, straight down.
• 37:26
  like we just had these boom and busts 2018 was just straight down 2019 was straight up then we
• 37:32
  had another bear in 2019 straight down covet happened we went vertical and then we just like
• 37:37
  it was really high amplitude moves with leverage right this is where retail suddenly got perpetual
• 37:43
  swaps on you name it token now since ftx blew up i think everybody knows we can see it in the price
• 37:51
  chart. It is trading differently. The drawdowns are shallower. The rallies, it goes up 40%, 50%,
• 37:58
  sometimes 100% in a year, and then chops around sideways for eight months. So we do have a very
• 38:03
  different structure. It's much more of a slow grind.
• 38:05
  Yeah, very much so. And look, at some point, and I think we're probably on the cusp of this,
• 38:09
  truthfully, of moving into what I call the euphoria phase. So we've got the bear market
• 38:14
  recovery where there's a lot of PTSD. This is really 2023. Everyone was fearing the ghost of
• 38:19
  Sam Backman-Freeb was going to come back and we're going back to zero. But we just never got that
• 38:24
  lower high and it just kept drifting higher. Then we got the excitement phase. You start getting up
• 38:28
  towards the all-time high. I thought that we would have moved into the euphoria phase already because
• 38:34
  in past cycles we have, but I think we're getting there. Look at the treasury company trends.
• 38:40
  Derivatives leverage is pretty much at all-time high. We're closing on like 5.8% of the Bitcoin
• 38:45
  market cap for futures and options. So it's getting leverage. As I said, I've had people
• 38:50
  call me saying, how do I lever up my Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin? There's just a lot of things
• 38:54
  that are starting to feel a little bit like we're in a bulletproof bull. And that's okay, right? This
• 38:59
  is normal for this kind of the cycle, but things can really start to accelerate from this point
• 39:03
  forward, which is exciting for those who've been bored to death. There is a good chance that we get
• 39:08
  some serious momentum to the upside. But as that happens, if we leave this stair-stepping pattern,
• 39:14
  we do move into more unsustainable territory. And then you start getting closer to a meaningful top.
• 39:20
  So take maybe the sentiment out of it. And just purely from this sort of analytics perspective,
• 39:25
  do you think there's still a lot of room to run here?
• 39:28
  I think so. I mean, and I think when you say a lot, that's a relative term, right? So let's just
• 39:33
  kind of correct what we mean by a lot. If we go up to 150K, you know, we were at 100K a couple of
• 39:40
  weeks ago, we got to 150. We've added a trillion dollars to the market cap. Now, we really proved
• 39:46
  that we're a trillion dollar asset in 24. Chopped sideways for eight months, every dip was bought.
• 39:50
  We then said, all right, let's try 2 trillion. And we chopped around there for six months, right?
• 39:54
  We had a correction back down to 75 and it was swiftly bought up amongst all the tariff tantrum.
• 39:59
  In many ways, we've kind of proven that, yeah, you know what? We're a $2 trillion asset.
• 40:04
  So the real question is now, how many trillions are we going to add? How many trillions until
• 40:08
  people start to sell 80,000 Bitcoin as a regular thing. How high do we have to go before people
• 40:14
  really start to cash in? Now, this cycle is also quite unique. If you look at long-term
• 40:19
  holder supply, we've had two waves of sell side, and they've both been very, very meaningful.
• 40:24
  I think in total, the amount of long-term supply that's come back to market has actually now
• 40:29
  eclipsed the 2017 cycle. So this is the largest in aggregate long-term holder sell side event
• 40:34
  we've ever seen. But we've got to remember a lot of that supply, people who bought in 2024 in that
• 40:40
  like 50K chop range, a lot of those coins got resold for a quick 50% move by hedge funds,
• 40:47
  trading desks, whatever else, up to 100K. Now, maybe they step back in. And in fact, a lot of
• 40:52
  the people who bought in the 85K range on that dip in March and April, a lot of those coins are
• 40:58
  now being sold up here. So a lot of folks kind of miss that there's still a large trading cohort.
• 41:04
  in and amongst the Bitcoin space,
• 41:06
  the sell side comes from people who bought 50% lower
• 41:10
  because 50% in like a three month period
• 41:13
  is astounding returns for TradFi folks.
• 41:17
  It's going to take them a long time
• 41:19
  to get used to just like buy and hold,
• 41:20
  but also their mandate isn't to buy and hold in many cases.
• 41:23
  Their mandate is to swap into Bitcoin, get out of it,
• 41:26
  move over to Nvidia, get out of Nvidia,
• 41:28
  go over and punt on Palantir.
• 41:30
  Like they move money.
• 41:32
  Their job is to move money.
• 41:34
  And the more they move, the more they clip the ticket, by the way.
• 41:36
  So, you know, in many ways, their performance is based on this.
• 41:40
  Bitcoin is absolutely ripping.
• 41:42
  And in every bull market, there's always a new wave of investors.
• 41:45
  And with it, a flood of new companies, new products and new promises.
• 41:48
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• 41:52
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• 41:55
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• 42:09
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• 43:53
  So let's get back to the cycles being different, because at the bottom here we've got the three cycles.
• 43:58
  um 2017 was just like parabolic upside um next cycle was like you said super volatile and this
• 44:04
  one's just grinding now i did a show with nick bartier very recently yes and he was saying i
• 44:10
  really liked his framework he was basically saying he's like 60 sure the cycle's broken which is
• 44:15
  a rounding error from 50 50 but like the the market is different now we have the sort of
• 44:22
  sailors of the world buying massive amounts of bitcoin regularly and we've got the etfs like do
• 44:27
  you put any credence in the idea that even if it's not sort of quote unquote super cycle,
• 44:31
  it is an elongated cycle that doesn't have the same four year bull and bear?
• 44:36
  Yeah. So honestly, I really, I aligned very strongly with what Nick was saying. I think
• 44:40
  that's the exact way to think about it, which is I'm extremely flexible and how I'm thinking
• 44:45
  about this cycle moving forward. The truth is it is different, but every cycle is different.
• 44:49
  They all have their own unique characteristics. The one thing that is not different is human
• 44:53
  beings, we all have our own decision frameworks. There's a lot of Bitcoiners out there who are just
• 44:59
  simply going to hit a level of wealth where they go, I can finally buy the house. I can finally do
• 45:04
  that thing that I could never. Bitcoin gives people opportunities that they would never have
• 45:09
  had any other way. I was listening to Pete McCormack on Natalie's podcast this morning,
• 45:15
  and he was saying very similar things. At some point, your Bitcoin, if it's your savings,
• 45:19
  people are going to find things to do with it because that's what money's for. It's about
• 45:23
  improving your life. So at some point, people are going to realize those gains. And by the way,
• 45:27
  that's perfectly fine. That's what savings are for. So the cycle is most definitely different.
• 45:34
  Human psychology is not different. Bitcoiners have this internal sense. The longer you're
• 45:39
  around this market, the more your intuition builds. You know when things are getting a bit
• 45:43
  silly. This is why there's a lot of these debates. This is why the treasury company thing is a debate.
• 45:47
  Every single person who's looking at this can go, I think there's some merit here because they're
• 45:51
  looking at what sale is doing, you're going, he's going after the bond market. That's pretty badass.
• 45:55
  That's pretty cool. And you can also look at it and go, it's also a bit Ponzi adjacent.
• 46:00
  You know what I mean? Like we're kind of sitting on this two sides of the fence. You can actually
• 46:03
  hold both of these views at the same time. Things are getting a little bit silly and we've probably
• 46:07
  got plenty of room to run. So I think that's the right framework for where we are. I'm very flexible
• 46:12
  and that's why I'm trying to live within the next like six months. Like I've got my models and I'm
• 46:19
  looking out where it is, but I'm under no illusions. The market could just totally top
• 46:23
  out here and just be a sad little curl over and that's the end of it. I don't think that's likely.
• 46:28
  I also think we may get a parabolic run, but I also don't think that will be sustainable.
• 46:33
  So I've got a couple of anchoring ideas and the rest of it, just allowing the market to just tell
• 46:38
  me, rather than me imposing what I expect to happen on the market, I just let the market,
• 46:44
  to the best of my ability, tell me what it wants to do and just try and listen. At the end of the
• 46:50
  day, the data is just information. I'm just trying to listen to the best of my ability.
• 46:54
  One thing that I think could be different there is, I do agree with what Pete's saying in terms
• 46:57
  of like, this is money. And at some point you want to do something with your money to improve
• 47:01
  your life. That's for sure true. But I do feel like the narrative is becoming more pervasive
• 47:06
  that Bitcoin is here forever, or at least for our lifetimes. And what are you selling for?
• 47:13
  And this is something we've spoken about a lot.
• 47:15
  And I think the market might be understanding that you don't just sell Bitcoin for fiat.
• 47:19
  Yes.
• 47:20
  No, I fully agree with that.
• 47:21
  And I do believe that's actually a unique element here.
• 47:24
  I mentioned long-term supply has been sold off.
• 47:27
  We've had two waves and we've actually just started the third wave of long-term distribution.
• 47:32
  What is unique?
• 47:33
  It's actually not the sell side that's unique.
• 47:35
  What is unique is that when we hit that peak in March 2024, long-term supply stops decreasing.
• 47:41
  and then it very, very quickly recovered.
• 47:44
  So when you think about long-term holder metrics,
• 47:47
  particularly supply,
• 47:48
  it takes five months for a coin to get to that threshold.
• 47:52
  The coin may chop around several times
• 47:53
  and move hands every so often,
• 47:55
  but eventually it hits that threshold.
• 47:57
  We have not seen in previous bull cycles,
• 48:00
  we see a massive sell-side event,
• 48:02
  the top gets put in,
• 48:03
  and then those coins recycle themselves
• 48:05
  for ages and ages and ages in the volatility of the bear
• 48:09
  because no one actually wanted to buy and hold it.
• 48:12
  This cycle is unique because we've actually almost recovered
• 48:14
  back to all-time highs twice now.
• 48:17
  And that is actually showing you about the buyers.
• 48:19
  We saw the sell side when the long-term supply decreases,
• 48:22
  but we actually see that the coins they got,
• 48:24
  the people who bought those coins are hodling them.
• 48:27
  Now, some of it's the ETF, some of it is hodlers,
• 48:29
  some of it is sailor.
• 48:30
  That is what's different.
• 48:31
  We've got a cohort of people who are now acclimatized to 100K.
• 48:36
  and I know people may not like a lot of Udi's views,
• 48:40
  but he's had these on this tirade recently
• 48:41
  saying this rotation of holders.
• 48:44
  And I think this is very, very real.
• 48:46
  I'm not quite there on the we're going to 400K this year,
• 48:49
  but there has genuinely been a rotation of capital
• 48:53
  from a 2011 whale to modern buyers
• 48:57
  like sailor, treasury companies, ETFs, retirees.
• 49:02
  My old man, my old man been in the Bitcoin world since 2020.
• 49:06
  um that was his first kind of entry to the market so he rode the up he rode the down and i heard all
• 49:11
  about it now he's riding this low volatility grind up um he is sold during this market cycle to get
• 49:18
  his initial capital out and he's now going should i what's the best way to maybe i don't know get
• 49:24
  back in he doesn't care that it's a higher price because he's got his risk out now he's willing to
• 49:28
  take that risk again because he's become comfortable with it there's a whole plethora of people out
• 49:33
  there who now they don't know anything except Bitcoin going from 50k to 73k to 110k to 120.
• 49:43
  And every time it does it, it goes there and it stays there. That's the history. They know the
• 49:46
  Ibit chart. They have no idea that Bitcoin came from two cents. They don't care about that period
• 49:51
  because it's not relevant to them. They see the Ibit chart, which is just an uptrend. It's only
• 49:56
  ever been in an uptrend. So you've got to think about where these people are coming from. We have
• 50:01
  acclimatized to these price ranges. I have long since given up 80% drawdown, what, to 30K?
• 50:09
  Good luck with that. It's just not happening. So I've given up on that idea. So I do think that is
• 50:14
  different. And actually, this is a bearish sign for all the other shit out there, all the altcoins,
• 50:21
  because people know that Bitcoin is the winning ticket. And I can only imagine how many shit
• 50:27
  Bitcoiners are out there and they've got big bags of this stuff. They are looking for every exit
• 50:31
  pump they can because they know that everyone now knows you have to go back to Bitcoin. So
• 50:36
  the sell side actually is going to show up everywhere else because the rotation is towards
• 50:42
  Bitcoin. I like that take. We started this talking about vibes and we've gone through all the sort of
• 50:46
  positive vibes on the Bitcoin price at the moment. But there are a couple that stand out to me as
• 50:51
  being like potentially toppy signals. One being the fact that we're just getting a new treasury
• 50:56
  company every fucking day. And then the other is that shit coins are pumping again. Like ETH's been
• 51:02
  flying over the last few months. Do you see that as a sign that maybe the top is closer than we
• 51:08
  think? No, honestly, like when you look at any asset, whether it's a bankrupt company or a shit
• 51:13
  coin, they do not go down in a straight line, just the same way as they don't go up in a straight
• 51:18
  line. Every single one of these things is going to get a relief bounce. Now, I think it's actually
• 51:22
  quite interesting because the core reason I would say, the narrative I would describe,
• 51:26
  so for ETH, for example, they've been getting quite a bit of inflows for the ETFs. What is the
• 51:31
  event that might have happened? The genius bill. So there's a bunch of folks out there who are
• 51:35
  betting on usage of stable coins is going to benefit the underlying token. And something,
• 51:42
  actually I was talking, I can't remember who I was talking about this with yesterday.
• 51:45
  It was actually Peter Dunworth. I was having a phone call with him. And we were talking about,
• 51:49
  my view is that we're in a hard money world now not hard like you know gold or bitcoin hard
• 51:56
  but interest rates aren't zero we're no longer in a zerp world i've had this long-running thesis
• 52:02
  and we've seen this with altcoins they've really struggled to catch a bid this really is the first
• 52:07
  like actual bid they've had yes solana had a period of time but like even it's rolled over
• 52:11
  and its btc chart looks just the same as eth does um just earlier in that cycle i think the market
• 52:17
  it. Generally speaking, yes, there's plenty of stupid stuff happening in the world. But if you
• 52:23
  look at the Russell 2000, it's doing pretty shit. If you look at the not so magnificent 493,
• 52:28
  that's doing kind of average. Really, we're seeing this like concentration towards the winners.
• 52:34
  It's very much a winner take most, winner take all type environment at the moment.
• 52:38
  This is anti-ZERP. This is people actually being more discerning with their capital.
• 52:43
  I would say we're even seeing this with treasury companies.
• 52:46
  I did a study the other day.
• 52:48
  The drawdown most of these treasury companies have had from their IPO, I guess you call it
• 52:52
  like, I'm going to call it like an IPO pump.
• 52:54
  When they announce, oh, look, we're a treasury company, they go up 5,000% and then they've
• 52:57
  just been in a horrendous downtrend ever since.
• 53:00
  It's kind of that initial pump.
• 53:01
  Strategy, yes, it hasn't blowing through all-time highs, but it's also not down anywhere near
• 53:07
  as much as most of these other companies.
• 53:08
  So I've had this long running thesis that more and more people are going to be more discerning with their capital.
• 53:15
  We're not in a ZERP world yet.
• 53:16
  I also don't think we're going back to a ZERP world anytime soon.
• 53:19
  Maybe if Trump gets his own way.
• 53:20
  Yeah, maybe.
• 53:21
  TBC.
• 53:22
  But I think, I mean, I have zero edge in this, but I would assume that power is probably going to stick it out.
• 53:26
  And this is all just narrative, TBC.
• 53:29
  But yes, you're right.
• 53:30
  Eventually, maybe.
• 53:31
  Maybe we get to that point.
• 53:32
  but the genius bill just because people are using stable coins doesn't actually mean the
• 53:39
  eth price benefits doesn't mean that sole price benefits you know and i've run this exercise
• 53:44
  before go and look at your all-time high gas consumption and compare it to your all-time
• 53:48
  high holdings i did this back when i had my my eth back in 2022 i ran this experiment i realized
• 53:54
  i'd bought 250 years worth of excess usage i sold it all the next day and i was done
• 53:58
  right so that was just the end of it um so if you look at all those different dynamics
• 54:02
  i just i think that a bunch of analysts are going to realize that there is actually no
• 54:07
  underlying demand for these tokens and just because someone's using it doesn't actually
• 54:12
  translate into value right i think it's tom lee he's saying that they have to buy the eth to secure
• 54:17
  their network i'm like that sounds like you probably don't want that system right that's
• 54:21
  is that really the kind of world that we want to live in like in that case just run a database
• 54:25
  if that's the case just use jpm servers why do you need a token to go alongside this thing
• 54:30
  and i i think a lot of these institutions are going to work this out pretty quick so
• 54:33
  it's an interesting point um i think if eth rolls over in the next like couple of months and just
• 54:39
  really struggles to punch a new all-time high i think the red candles that come for alts if that
• 54:46
  happens and again i don't know maybe maybe the world animal spirits just comes back but if it
• 54:51
  rolls over i think that is going to be just a the reddest candle you've seen because i that's the
• 54:58
  world realizing that there really is no demand for this stuff and you know good luck to the true
• 55:02
  believers yeah um i do want to talk about treasury companies because you tweeted recently um the
• 55:08
  drawdowns most these treasury companies will experience will be epic 2012 bitcoin grade depth
• 55:13
  but with gold grade duration yes um why do we start with just your general take because i think
• 55:18
  we align we talk about this quite regularly offline and like i think we align quite closely
• 55:22
  and that there's there's sailor and then there's everyone else yes that's pretty much where i see it
• 55:26
  so and interestingly enough and again people people are going to find all the nitty reasons why arguments are wrong But think about things from a general perspective We have seen this process before in shit coins in penny stocks and you name it
• 55:43
  I use a framework of extremes inform the mean.
• 55:47
  So let's go to the most extreme example and see where that puts us.
• 55:50
  If you look at strategy, if there was only one company doing this strategy,
• 55:54
  strategy. It makes sense that everyone has to buy that firm for it to do well.
• 55:59
  If everybody's doing this strategy, then what's your differentiator? Probably your size,
• 56:05
  your liquid options market, your access to debt. The truth is when you've got so many of these
• 56:11
  things, when you're printing a million shit coins a day on pump.fun, there's literally not enough
• 56:17
  money to buy this stuff. I also think about it from the smaller you are, the more your only
• 56:23
  option is to sell equity. That's the only option you actually have. All the other companies,
• 56:28
  if you look at strategy, for example, they can do all sorts of exotic preferred stocks and debt
• 56:32
  financing and you name it. That's going to benefit them in both the bull and the bear because they
• 56:35
  literally have more access to capital. There's obviously a spectrum, by the way, between all
• 56:40
  these things and different companies at different distances. But the chasm between strategy and
• 56:45
  literally everything else is, it's like saying, what's the difference between a billion dollars
• 56:48
  and a million dollars, it's about a billion dollars. So the chasm is so large between strategy
• 56:54
  and everything else, it kind of doesn't matter to compare them. So then you've got this kind of
• 56:58
  middle bucket, Metaplanet's probably the leading example of those, and then you've got the long
• 57:03
  tail. What is the differentiating factor between the long tails? I really struggle to see it. And
• 57:09
  there is a reason that these companies are hiring Bitcoin podcasters as their front men,
• 57:15
  because if they do not attract retail speculator capital,
• 57:19
  there is no other demand for this.
• 57:21
  In my opinion, there is no serious institution
• 57:23
  buying a penny stock with a cold card.
• 57:24
  I just don't see it happening.
• 57:26
  So if they can't access debt,
• 57:28
  if they can only sell equity,
• 57:31
  eventually people realize,
• 57:32
  why the hell am I holding this thing?
• 57:34
  If there's Ponzi adjacent,
• 57:36
  unless there's more money coming in,
• 57:38
  and this is the thing with these MNAVs and these premiums.
• 57:42
  And by the way, this is not throwing out every single company.
• 57:44
  This is like a broad statement that we look at extremes and then there's going to be outliers.
• 57:48
  But if everybody's doing this and your premium expands very quickly, right?
• 57:53
  Let's just say a company has a premium expanded to 10x.
• 57:56
  They can either 10x their Bitcoin balance or the Bitcoin price can 10x or some combination
• 58:01
  of the two and your price can stay flat.
• 58:04
  And now you're an MNAV of one.
• 58:06
  Now, yes, can they sustain a premium?
• 58:08
  Well, that depends on their growth metrics.
• 58:10
  When the Bitcoin price rolls over, the speculative capital will slow down and you will
• 58:14
  not get people going out on the risk curve. So this all works very, very well when Bitcoin is
• 58:19
  in an uptrend. By the moment it goes into chop solidation, where it's frustrating and boring,
• 58:24
  or it goes into a downtrend, which eventually will happen, I just can't see how these companies
• 58:30
  continue to attract capital. And as a result, once the engine goes out and this plane's flying
• 58:37
  in midair and your engine goes out, you've got no fuel to turn this thing back on because suddenly
• 58:42
  nobody wants to buy your stock and then you're just like every other penny stock with a cold
• 58:46
  card now someone's tweeted at me and i think it's a valid point it's better than penny stocks without
• 58:50
  a cold card agree agree but the problem is that once their m nav goes below one and i do believe
• 58:55
  a lot of these companies will once their m nav goes below one because there's just not enough
• 59:00
  money to sustain a premium they can't sell equity to buy the bitcoin but they can buy sell the
• 59:05
  bitcoin to buy the equity and buy their shares back and then you realize well you know if you're
• 59:10
  just a company who's like a shitty hedge fund who buys Bitcoin at the top and sells it at the bottom
• 59:14
  to buy back your own stock? Do I really want to share in that? Yeah, it's Bitcoin accretive,
• 59:19
  but I can also just borrow money and buy iBit or borrow money and buy Bitcoin.
• 59:23
  So I think that people are over-indexing on this idea that we need a treasury company in
• 59:28
  every jurisdiction. They're basically taking Metaplanet's success in Japan, which by the way,
• 59:32
  is a unique selling point. And they're saying, oh, well, there's one in Sweden and there's one
• 59:37
  in Denmark and there's one in Vietnam. And let's put a treasury company everywhere. It's like,
• 59:42
  if we talk about it here in Australia, what is the real trapped capital here in Australia?
• 59:47
  People say, in fact, I was talking with Pete about this yesterday. He's like our superannuation funds,
• 59:52
  which is like 401ks for people in America. All this retirement money, it can only buy Aussie
• 59:56
  equities. And my point was, truthfully, if you're actually buying, like for me, I've got some of my
• 1:00:03
  investment that my superannuation fund in mstr why because it's really not hard to access so if
• 1:00:09
  we're talking about trapped capital that can only buy aussie equities are they really really that
• 1:00:16
  far down the risk curve they're going to go and buy a penny stock with a cold card no they're not
• 1:00:21
  like the truth is once these this trapped capital it's either not engaged in bitcoin at all or
• 1:00:27
  barely even looking at buying the ETS so early in that journey.
• 1:00:32
  And anybody who is smart enough to know that this trade even exists
• 1:00:36
  is smart enough to open an account with a brokerage that can buy US stocks.
• 1:00:41
  I'm just really struggling to see this long-term sustained trapped capital thing.
• 1:00:47
  People have taken the Metaplanet journey and said,
• 1:00:49
  we can replicate that in every country.
• 1:00:51
  And I think that's wrong.
• 1:00:52
  For me, I think that unless you have deep options,
• 1:00:55
  unless you have deep debt markets, unless you can finance without selling equity.
• 1:01:01
  Most of these companies are absolutely reliant on this speculative, retail-driven gambler
• 1:01:07
  pocket money.
• 1:01:08
  When you run out of that, the engine goes out and this whole thing.
• 1:01:12
  I just think these MNAVs get crushed.
• 1:01:14
  And by the way, this is not saying these companies are going to go bankrupt.
• 1:01:17
  I think a lot of these companies are going to be fine.
• 1:01:19
  But I think the people who bought the shares at the high premium, you're going to experience
• 1:01:24
  to 2011 Bitcoin bear market, which is down 95 in like three weeks. And then I don't think they come
• 1:01:31
  back. So I think then you get your gold level duration because how do you distinguish between
• 1:01:37
  literally every other treasury company? You don't. Once your engine goes out, rebooting that thing is
• 1:01:42
  going to be very, very difficult. Yeah, I totally agree. And I do think Metaplanet is different. I
• 1:01:47
  think that one probably will sustain. I think I spoke to Dylan recently on the podcast and
• 1:01:51
  And he's definitely doing some interesting things.
• 1:01:53
  But the thing you hit on there, which I think is the most relevant, is the fact that Saylor
• 1:01:57
  is not only the largest in size, but he's also doing the most interesting things on
• 1:02:01
  kind of like the financial engineering side with these preferreds.
• 1:02:04
  And if he's being both the innovator and he's got the size, like how can you compete?
• 1:02:09
  And I think just selling equity to buy Bitcoin is probably done already.
• 1:02:13
  I agree.
• 1:02:13
  No, that's my base case.
• 1:02:15
  I think that's a line I've been using to try and summarize a lot of these ideas.
• 1:02:19
  the Bitcoin in the treasury isn't the product. That's not the product. It's a means to an end.
• 1:02:25
  The product is the means by which they accumulate the Bitcoin. For strategy, for example, the means
• 1:02:30
  by which they accumulate the Bitcoin is they construct bonds. They sell bonds. They're bond
• 1:02:34
  salesmen. They sell bonds to a market that wants to buy bonds, that is big enough to make it a
• 1:02:40
  justifiable market to go after it. The treasury is simply a means to an end to make it different
• 1:02:45
  to all the other bonds. MetaPlanet, the unique selling point there is that they haven't quite
• 1:02:50
  got to the sailor level of innovation, but they are providing a Bitcoin exposure. There's a tax
• 1:02:54
  arbitrage as well between spot Bitcoin and equities. They are tapping into a very unique
• 1:02:59
  set of circumstances in Japan, which by the way, is a massive economy. It's a massive, massive market.
• 1:03:06
  Australia doesn't register anywhere on the blip of anything. Now, I think I should also make a very
• 1:03:12
  clear clarification here. When we talk about treasury companies, I'm not talking about
• 1:03:18
  businesses that sweep excess profits into Bitcoin. That's two thumbs up. Be a penny stock with a cold
• 1:03:23
  card in that circumstance. There's no issue there whatsoever. This is all about the sale of all-in
• 1:03:29
  playbooks. And I'm very confident that if you do not go hard, you will go home. We saw this with
• 1:03:34
  GameStop. They kind of like half-assed put a quarter of a toe in and the market said, get out
• 1:03:39
  of here and wiped out their stock and i think this is the game you are either all in with a very good
• 1:03:45
  unique selling point or your m nav premiums are going to one like everybody else and this is what
• 1:03:50
  happened to shit coins they dilute themselves out of existence and then what's your differentiator
• 1:03:54
  ah i'll buy strategy because at least they're doing something interesting yeah i want to just
• 1:03:59
  share this chart because one thing that i have probably said in the past but i actually don't
• 1:04:04
  think i was right if i have and what a narrative that i would fade is that this has any meaningful
• 1:04:09
  impact on Bitcoin. So I pulled up this earlier. And let's say you take even the top 15 companies
• 1:04:16
  out of this, assuming that some of those, like some of these are different. We've got like Galaxy
• 1:04:20
  in here, CleanSpark, like they're not doing necessarily the Saylor playbook. But then if
• 1:04:25
  you go below 15, the amount of Bitcoin that these companies hold is only, quote unquote,
• 1:04:30
  only 70,000 Bitcoin in total. Yeah, superior distribution, like most things.
• 1:04:34
  and and like again in here you have people like i don't know hive uh bit deer canaan like cypher
• 1:04:41
  like these these aren't companies doing the sailor playbook these are just companies that
• 1:04:45
  have stacked bitcoin fold in there yes and so like if you even took 70 000 bitcoin like that's not
• 1:04:50
  going to make a material impact on the bitcoin price i don't think so do you see this as being
• 1:04:55
  just bad for bitcoin treasury companies not necessarily for bitcoin yes yes correct so so
• 1:05:01
  I am wildly constructive on Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is, I mean, it's just an idea whose
• 1:05:05
  time has come. That's very clear. So I'm wildly bullish on Bitcoin. I'm also by, and let's just
• 1:05:12
  keep going down the risk curve here. If I'm wildly bullish on Bitcoin, it kind of makes sense to be
• 1:05:17
  wildly bullish on the entity that's got 620 something, I don't know if this website's updated,
• 1:05:22
  620,000 Bitcoin. That's like a beach ball that's just going to inflate that company. Now, again,
• 1:05:27
  I should be very clear. It is much better for a company to have Bitcoin than to not have Bitcoin.
• 1:05:33
  So sweeping profits into Bitcoin is great. What I think is going to be a challenge is a lot of
• 1:05:37
  these companies, they come out the gates, they develop a massive MNAV premium. They may stack
• 1:05:43
  a couple of Bitcoin for the first couple of months. Investors get very excited. They buy
• 1:05:47
  into the stock price. This is Ponzi adjacent because if you buy early in that trend, if you're
• 1:05:54
  in that telegram group realizing that they're getting one of these scammy pipe deals, if you're
• 1:05:59
  in that telegram group, you're going to be fine. If you buy early in the trend, you're probably
• 1:06:03
  going to be fine. If you buy late in that trend, you are being sold a dream and it's going to hurt
• 1:06:10
  a lot when it reverses. So I think that's the thing. It genuinely relies on old money exiting
• 1:06:16
  out to new money. I know this is how markets work, but these premiums are unsustainable for
• 1:06:21
  most of these companies. So it totally depends what premium you get in, what premium you get out,
• 1:06:28
  where you buy on that curve. So these are very, very dynamic systems, but you've got to think
• 1:06:33
  about the MNAV premium. That is actually the price you're trading. And buying those MNAV premiums at
• 1:06:39
  very, very high levels means the Bitcoin price can rip, their treasury can rip. And what we've seen
• 1:06:45
  is that the MNAV always has a gravity towards one.
• 1:06:49
  The bigger the company gets,
• 1:06:51
  the more their MNAV drifts down towards one.
• 1:06:54
  Even MetaPlanet, they blew up to like 10X.
• 1:06:56
  They're now pulling back down to what,
• 1:06:58
  I think it was like three last time.
• 1:06:59
  Three and a half or something, yeah.
• 1:07:00
  Three and a half.
• 1:07:01
  So people who have bought the top of that MNAV premium,
• 1:07:03
  they're down 50%,
• 1:07:04
  despite the fact they've probably added Bitcoin
• 1:07:06
  to their balance sheet
• 1:07:07
  and Bitcoin's probably about to go on a run.
• 1:07:09
  It's going to take them a long time
• 1:07:10
  to get their money back, in my opinion.
• 1:07:11
  So the gravity, we get small companies
• 1:07:14
  with a large MNAV, large companies with a small MNAV, and the gravity is pointing from one to the
• 1:07:21
  other. The bigger you get, the smaller MNAV is going to get. So if we fast forward 10 years,
• 1:07:26
  what kind of MNAV do you think strategy will be sat on? As this market matures, what do you think
• 1:07:32
  the sort of, I guess, because I assume Saylor is going to sit at higher than one.
• 1:07:38
  Yes. No, I think they, and they have deservedly stayed at a premium above one. I mean, look at
• 1:07:43
  JP Morgan, look at their book value.
• 1:07:45
  Like in my view, it makes sense to be like, you know, 2X, 3X at a bull run and, you know,
• 1:07:50
  at book value in a nasty bear market.
• 1:07:53
  So, you know, what we're not going to see is thousands and thousands and thousands of
• 1:07:58
  companies with an MNAV of 50.
• 1:08:00
  It's, this is, you know, how many people have you managed to convince that Bitcoin is an
• 1:08:05
  important thing?
• 1:08:06
  Very, very few.
• 1:08:07
  Most of us.
• 1:08:07
  assuming that this is like the we overestimate what we can do in one year and underestimate in
• 1:08:13
  10 years bitcoin can hyper bitcoinize the world and the m nav of these companies can still be two
• 1:08:18
  right can still be 1.5 because the more normalized these things get the less of a premium because
• 1:08:25
  it's new and unique and interesting and by the way the bigger the pre this is the other thing
• 1:08:29
  extremes inform the mean if your premium is 50x what's the company incentivized to do
• 1:08:35
  sell a boatload of stock they want to dilute the price yes they're going to buy a bunch of bitcoin
• 1:08:40
  that's going to generate a bunch of hype but what are they actually doing they're compressing that
• 1:08:44
  m nav now if you buy when that m nav is small and you ride the wave up you are relying on other
• 1:08:49
  people bidding the stock up to keep this game going until the engine goes out and when that goes
• 1:08:54
  then it's it's just down only from there so 2011 bitcoin depth and i do believe gold level two
• 1:09:03
  decades of bear market when it finally hits because there's no distinguishing factor for
• 1:09:07
  most of these companies ponzi adjacent i like it all right checkmate let's um let's close out with
• 1:09:13
  the price prediction so every time we do this you you give me a price and i tell you it's
• 1:09:17
  disappointing i'm not going to do that this time and where do you think bitcoin is by let's say
• 1:09:22
  the end of the year well this is important because you pete and i have a bet on this right and i
• 1:09:27
  think i think you're gonna win it i know yes so so at that level and again what was that 2023 we
• 1:09:32
  made that. I think my price was $250 is like the top level that we can get to in 2025.
• 1:09:38
  And fortunately, I have all the optionality of the downside because it's closest to the pin.
• 1:09:44
  Look, we could get to, if you want the most bullish level, and again, none of this is
• 1:09:49
  prediction. This is looking at where investor behavior changes. The 200-day moving average
• 1:09:54
  is just like a long-term price anchor. There's only so far you can stretch the elastic band away
• 1:09:59
  from that mean before it wants to revert. Mark, it's a mean reverting phenomena. So that's the
• 1:10:04
  simplest one. How far above the 200-day moving average have we got in previous cycles? And the
• 1:10:08
  answer is about 2.4. Sometimes it goes higher than that, but we're in very rare air at that point in
• 1:10:13
  time. Now, the 200-day moving average is obviously a moving target. It's evolving as the price evolves,
• 1:10:19
  but as it stands today, it's about 236k from memory. So 236, if we teleport tomorrow into a
• 1:10:26
  parabola, you know, 236 might be 240 by the time we get there. 250, I may end up in the money almost
• 1:10:32
  on the dot, TBC. The other ones we can look at, which I put a lot more credibility into, is just
• 1:10:39
  looking at MVRV levels. And I use different variants, short-term holders, coin time adjusted
• 1:10:45
  with AVRV. There's a whole bunch of ones. It doesn't matter. The point is, show me at what
• 1:10:50
  price level. We know where everyone's cost basis is. How high do we have to go before the average
• 1:10:56
  guy is feeling so bullish and so excited that the smart money is going, there's my target audience.
• 1:11:03
  I'm going to sell exactly to that guy. People eventually sell. How high do we have to go before
• 1:11:08
  they start selling? Now, I have to remember here that those levels, we then have to say, well,
• 1:11:13
  are they actually selling? They have in every single previous time, but we've always got to
• 1:11:17
  check. There's the incentive. That's my idea. That's my concept. Do they actually sell? My
• 1:11:21
  assumption is they probably will. We get to 130, 140, that's where short-term holders are starting
• 1:11:27
  to get fairly juiced up. Now, that doesn't mean we probably top out there, but I wouldn't be
• 1:11:32
  surprised if we bump our head and it takes a bit of time to get through that period.
• 1:11:35
  If we just keep going and we get up to like 160, 170, 180, we're now moving into the territory
• 1:11:41
  where less than 10% of all trading days have been that stretched. Now, we could then go through a
• 1:11:46
  period of chop solidation and that would allow all these means to come higher and start to mean
• 1:11:51
  revert and cools things down just by consolidation or even a correction um all those things so 150
• 1:11:57
  160 170 we're starting to get into thin air 180 at the moment is like sub five percent of all days
• 1:12:04
  can it happen yes five percent of the time it does happen do we stay there no so there's 95
• 1:12:09
  chance that we're probably not going to stay there and i think this is also very important
• 1:12:13
  don't worry about trying to pick the absolute top wick nobody can do this it's just like it's
• 1:12:19
  It's nonsense.
• 1:12:20
  No one can do it.
• 1:12:20
  You did it.
• 1:12:21
  You bought it in 2017.
• 1:12:22
  Yeah, that was different though.
• 1:12:23
  That was different though.
• 1:12:24
  That is actually the counter signal.
• 1:12:26
  No, you're right.
• 1:12:27
  I did buy the absolute top.
• 1:12:28
  No, but that's the inverse.
• 1:12:29
  You're supposed to sell the top, not buy the top.
• 1:12:32
  So yeah, no, I got smoked in 2017, but that's part of the learning journey.
• 1:12:35
  So if we get to 180, we're getting really hot.
• 1:12:38
  Just every metric is going to be overblown.
• 1:12:40
  And again, I use my two personas.
• 1:12:42
  Check the analyst.
• 1:12:42
  Cannot in good faith say that we're at the bottom at 180K.
• 1:12:46
  I just can't because it would be dishonest.
• 1:12:48
  so again they're moving targets they'll continue to evolve but that is where i expect investor
• 1:12:53
  behavior will really start to shift and change um and none of this is to say that bitcoin is not
• 1:12:59
  going to go to a million bucks it's just going to take a lot longer than people expect and if you
• 1:13:02
  wake up one day and bitcoin's at a million dollars um either the world is in a really really bad spot
• 1:13:07
  and it's it's happening or it's probably a scam wick and we're coming down 80 percent
• 1:13:12
  well i think i might just send you the 100k sats now i don't i think i said 282
• 1:13:18
  I've already got it in my spreadsheet, man.
• 1:13:19
  It's already accounted for in my inheritance planning.
• 1:13:21
  And Pete definitely needs to send you his.
• 1:13:23
  He said 350.
• 1:13:24
  Yeah, yeah, that's not happening.
• 1:13:25
  That's not happening.
• 1:13:27
  Checkmate, I appreciate you, man.
• 1:13:28
  You're one of my favorite people to talk to.
• 1:13:30
  Where does anyone go to find the newsletter
• 1:13:32
  and follow what you do?
• 1:13:33
  If Pete wins that bet,
• 1:13:35
  I'm just thinking about it now.
• 1:13:38
  I mean, that's going to be the ultimate
• 1:13:39
  egg on the face moment, isn't it?
• 1:13:40
  I will be very happy to send him 100k stats if he wins.
• 1:13:43
  Truthfully, I'm perfectly hedged
• 1:13:44
  because I'll be a very happy man as well.
• 1:13:45
  you'll find me over at checkonchain.com we've got our newsletter and
• 1:13:49
  charting website so check us out over there all right man appreciate you thanks for the time
• 1:13:54
  thanks mate