RBNZ almost hikes & eyes three hikes before election

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey · May 27, 2026 · 20m

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided this afternoon to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR), but it was a much closer run thing than everyone expected and the central bank has changed its forecasts to seeing three OCR hikes by the end the year. Most economists now expect three hikes in a row on July 8, September 2 and October 28, just in time for the OCR to be 3.0% by the election on November 7.

For the first time, the Reserve Bank detailed how each of the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted, including that the three outside members, Prasanna Gai, Carl Hansen and Hayley…