Latest / Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds / Jeff Lebby & Mississippi State Football's 2026 Win Total || Dave Bartoo

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Jeff Lebby & Mississippi State Football's 2026 Win Total || Dave Bartoo · Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds

• 0:43
  Speaker 1: And here we go the out of Bound show ESPN
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  Speaker 1: Margarita s Bolonne Tequila Bo Bounds Stay Bar two with you,
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  Speaker 1: ESPN one oh five nine. The Zone. All Right, we're
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  Speaker 1: gonna go total wins through a few teams here, start
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  Speaker 1: with the Ole miss Rebels or Mississippi State, Mississippi State.
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  Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna go total wins. Let's talk a
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  Speaker 1: little sports betting. It's not a Better day or afternoon
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: of college football or NFL Vegas style sports book inside
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  Speaker 1: the Golden Moon, the Timeout Sports Lounge on the property
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  Speaker 1: of Pearl River Resort. All right, let's go through MSU.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, and just to let everybody know is when I'm
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  Speaker 2: projecting these I'm using coach effect. Okay, what they have
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  Speaker 2: done relative to their talent as a head coach over
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  Speaker 2: their career, Okay, and that is relative to the guys
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  Speaker 2: that they're facing as well, so, well, you know, like
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  Speaker 2: a Pete Golding has no coach effect, so we're not
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  Speaker 2: going to be able to profile or maybe exactly the same.
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  Speaker 2: But the guys he's playing, like when he plays in
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  Speaker 2: the Egg Bowl, he's going to be playing Jeff Levy,
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  Speaker 2: who has a minus two point five to seven game
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  Speaker 2: coach effect on his career. Okay, So but on with
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  Speaker 2: with Mississippi State. So right now, the line I have,
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  Speaker 2: the market line I have is four and a half.
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  Speaker 2: We four and a half wins, Okay, And the numbers
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  Speaker 2: say average coaching from twenty twenty five, this is a
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  Speaker 2: five point four win season for Mississippi State. Say so,
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  Speaker 2: so everybody listen to keep that in mind. Average head
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  Speaker 2: coaching should be at five and a half wins. So
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  Speaker 2: if if we get to six and six here at State,
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  Speaker 2: that is above average coaching wins at six and six.
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  Speaker 2: But because he is a negative coach effect for his career,
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  Speaker 2: the projected the mathematical projection for him is four point
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  Speaker 2: six wins. So the most likely outcome for Mississippi State
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  Speaker 2: right now in the numbers, based on the schedule, the
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  Speaker 2: coaches they're facing, and Jeff's first two years, most likely
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  Speaker 2: twenty seven percent four and eight, twenty six percent five
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  Speaker 2: and seven. And we talked about five and seven this
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  Speaker 2: year is better than five and seven last year. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: but we really.
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  Speaker 1: I got him over the four point six. Okay, I
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  Speaker 1: got him going five and seven.
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  Speaker 2: You gotta go.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, And there is a clear path to six and
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  Speaker 1: six with the schedule that you pull.
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  Speaker 2: There there is, and that is the third most likely
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  Speaker 2: outcome for him at seventeen percent is six and six. Okay, Okay.
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  Speaker 2: So you look at this kind of like a triangle.
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  Speaker 2: Your top two projections are four and eight and five
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  Speaker 2: and seven, and in that six and six, look in
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  Speaker 2: that six and six. There has got to be there
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  Speaker 2: probably has to be a signature winning there somewhere his
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  Speaker 2: first big win.
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  Speaker 1: Well, he hasn't won an SEC home game, and he
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  Speaker 1: has Vanderbilt, yep, well first Missouri, but he has Missouri.
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  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt and Auburn at home.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: None of those teams are that good.
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  Speaker 2: No, Vanderbilt lost their their best quarterback, right, the best
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  Speaker 2: player of their probably existence, right, you know, And and
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  Speaker 2: Auburn new offensive coordinator, new staff at home, and the
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  Speaker 2: Missouri right, and the Missouri which is not a which
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  Speaker 2: is you know, top twenty five recruiter, you know, I mean.
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  Speaker 1: But they're not top ten.
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  Speaker 2: No, No, it's a bottom half of the pack of
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  Speaker 2: the Secay you're all at home, right, you got to
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  Speaker 2: take advantage of the home schedule when when you're playing
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  Speaker 2: teams like that. So yeah, in terms of the market line,
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  Speaker 2: I'm not betting Mississippi State. You say you take the
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  Speaker 2: over four and a half, that means four and eight
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  Speaker 2: beat you. If I'm betting this, I'm willing I'll take
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  Speaker 2: five and seven. Right, I bet one hundred on that. Yeah, okay, cool, now,
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  Speaker 2: one one little nugget. Then.
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  Speaker 1: I can't believe I just said I'd bet on Jeff Levy.
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  Speaker 2: No, well anyway, right, and I and whether it's Jeff, I.
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  Speaker 1: Do need to go get a Tito's bloody.
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  Speaker 2: I don't like betting on minus coaches.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, you said that, and you've stayed you said
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  Speaker 1: that for years.
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  Speaker 2: Right, don't bet on negative coaches because well they are negative, right,
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  Speaker 2: they they've let you down. So even if he hits
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  Speaker 2: five and seven and six and six, I don't see
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  Speaker 2: it as a good bet. Now, I will say, if
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  Speaker 2: you can buy it down, if you can get over
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  Speaker 2: under four. And this is something I want to talk
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  Speaker 2: to everybody about right now that's listening. Is that half
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  Speaker 2: point that four and a half to four. Think about it.
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  Speaker 2: Four and eight beat you at over four and a half.
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  Speaker 2: If you're at four, maybe you're at minus one fifty
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  Speaker 2: instead of minus one ten. But now he's got to
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  Speaker 2: go three and nine to beat you. That's a big
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  Speaker 2: difference for three nine.
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  Speaker 1: Four and eight, no question.
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  Speaker 2: Right. So if you're looking at these things, if you
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  Speaker 2: have the opportunity, especially like on a draft Kings or
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  Speaker 2: a fan duel, even maybe the time out lounge is
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  Speaker 2: see if you can if there's moving numbers that you
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  Speaker 2: can pay more for in the juice or to get
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  Speaker 2: a better number to cover your head. Right, Okay, One
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  Speaker 2: final nugget on Jeff the play caller.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, the play caller.
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  Speaker 2: And so I've asked the system to tell me what
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  Speaker 2: are some tendencies of these guys.
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  Speaker 1: Okay.
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  Speaker 2: So Jeff is very very run heavy in certain situations, Okay,
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  Speaker 2: and specifically when he's at the goal line less than
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  Speaker 2: five yards any any down distance is first, second, third,
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  Speaker 2: or fourth and goal less than five he runs it
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  Speaker 2: seventy seven percent of the time, So third and short
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  Speaker 2: seventy five percent of the time. Red zone first downs
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  Speaker 2: he runs it seventy six percent of the time. So
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  Speaker 2: he is very very run heavy in short yarded situations.
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  Speaker 2: In one score game though it flips third and long,
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  Speaker 2: third and seven, he ran it only nineteen percent of
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  Speaker 2: the time. Converted none of them.
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  Speaker 1: Oh wow, zero conversions.
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  Speaker 2: He ran it twenty four percent of the time, and
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  Speaker 2: on third and long over ten yards converted none of them.
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  Speaker 2: So the rushing game outside of third and six totally
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  Speaker 2: fell apart. Didn't work. Okay, but the past game, and
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  Speaker 2: this is why I say, I'm not.
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  Speaker 1: Sure how good Blake was Blake shaping for our listeners. Right,
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  Speaker 1: third and seven, now, Blake Scott third and seven to
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  Speaker 1: third and ten. He converted that throwing the ball only
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  Speaker 1: thirty four percent of the time, good lord, And when
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  Speaker 1: thirty four percent.
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  Speaker 2: Right, and when you got him into third and long
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  Speaker 2: in a close game, so third and eleven or more
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  Speaker 2: shape and only converted eight percent of those throws. You
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  Speaker 2: ain't eighter. You want to know why you go one
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  Speaker 2: to fifteen, Try going eight percent on third and long
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  Speaker 2: in the SEC in a tight ball game. Right, So
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  Speaker 2: I think with Jeff, though, is from a predictability standpoint,
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  Speaker 2: you want two in those in those short runs, those
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  Speaker 2: short downs first, second, and third down, load the box
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  Speaker 2: on them and try to force the pass. At least
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  Speaker 2: that's based on twenty four and twenty five numbers.
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  Speaker 1: Wow, did you hear Jackson?
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  Speaker 2: All right?
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Dave bar two on the Out of Bound show, he
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  Speaker 1: loved the wood fired pizza. On a positive note as well,
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  Speaker 1: he loved the wood fired pizza.
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  Speaker 2: And on fourth down, fourth and three or more, he
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  Speaker 2: is one hundred percent pass fourth and one or two.
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  Speaker 2: He only passed at one time last year. So his
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  Speaker 2: line in the sand. When it's fourth down, fourth and three,
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  Speaker 2: pin your ears back. You know you play play the
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  Speaker 2: pass fourth and one, fourth and two, load the box.
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  Speaker 2: Only passed at one time last year. Okay, and maybe
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  Speaker 2: because he didn't trust his quarterback.
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  Speaker 1: Jeff Levy's numbers next coming up next all miss win total.
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