Latest / Best of Business / Jamie Mackay: The Country host on Zespri releasing their forecast for the 2025/26 season

Transcript

Jamie Mackay: The Country host on Zespri releasing their forecast for the 2025/26 season · Best of Business

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk ZEDB. Follow
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Jamie McKay Country Hosters with us Lo Jamie gooda heather
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: and that fifty six cent dollars obviously helping exporters in
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: this country, including zespri. How's the forecast looking for them? Well,
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: they've just released their November forecast, and the per tray
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: returns for all fruit groups from the latest forecast are
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: up from the August one look at and these are
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: telephone book numbers sort of at a per hectare level.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Record returns in our forecast for all fruit groups of
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: zespri or key we fruit, for example, a hectare and
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: you need to own one of these. Heather of sun
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: gold will return you somewhere between one hundred and seventy
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: nine and one hundred and eighty six thousand dollars for
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: hect here. That's a fantastic return. I caught up with
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: the chief executive of Zesbury, Jason to Break in Japan
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: early today on my show. So Zesbury's got a record
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: crop of two hundred and fifteen million trays. They've found
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: a home for it right around the world. They've got
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: really strong demand in Europe and North America, and North
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: America even better now that Trump's dropped as tariffs. They've
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: also had a favorable exchange rate, as we mentioned, fifty
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: six US since and Zesbury will release its final forecast
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: for the twenty five twenty six season in February. But
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: look like a lot of the primary sector, it's an
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: industry on a high at the moment. Yeah, what's going
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: on with the dairy farmers. Well, it's interesting because we
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: know we're hearing record returns for Zesbury or for Kiwi
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: fruit red meats at an all time high. Dairy the
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: jury's out a wee bit because you know what happens
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: when the price gets as high as it has ten
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: bucks and more, the tap gets turned on right around
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: the world. And even Kiwi farmers themselves are guilty. And
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: I don't blame them at all. So, you know, like
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: dairy farmings like paint by numbers in some ways, you
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: put stuff in the front end of a cow and
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: out the back end or near the back end, comes
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: to milk. So when you've got a ten dollar payout,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: you can afford to supplementary feed them. And farmers did
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: go chasing the high payout at the end of last season,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: and that's almost working against them now. So what we've
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: seen with the GDT auction last night or on Tuesday night,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: should I say seventh consecutive drop, we're at a new
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: fifteen month low. ASB senior economist Chris Tennant Brown said,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: the early signs were that milk production would be very
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: strong this season. They opened ASB with a very I
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: guess conservative at the time forecast of nine to seventy five. Fonterra,
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: as far as I know, is still sticking at ten bucks.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: But look the way it's going at the moment, whether
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: weather providing that ten dollars is certainly under threat. So
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: Fonterra will come out in early December, I think it's
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: December the fifth, and they will have a look at
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: that milk forecast price for the twenty five twenty sixth season,
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: the futures market, interestingly is at nine dollars sixty two
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: and perhaps more worryingly, although it's a long time out
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: and we've got a lot of water to go under
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: the bridge before then, twenty six to twenty seven season
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: is at eight dollars ninety three and I can speak
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: for dairy farmers on this one. Ten bucks was a
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: great price. Nine to fifty is still a good price.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: When you start getting under nine bucks. Bearing in mind
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: dairy and ZED said the cost of production something like
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: eight dollars sixty, it becomes a wee bit more marginal.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Jamie, thank you very much. Good to talk to you.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: And when I was going to say, we'll talk to
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: you again on Thursday, but it is Thursday, isn't it.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Jamie McKay, Host of the Country. For more from News
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Talk zed B, listen live on air or on lay
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: and keep our shows with you wherever you go with
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: our podcasts on iHeartRadio