Latest / Balance of Power / Trump Dials Back Iran Threats, Hosts Netanyahu at White House

Transcript

Trump Dials Back Iran Threats, Hosts Netanyahu at White House · Balance of Power

0:02
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
0:10
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kettas live weekdays at noon
0:14
Speaker 1: and five pm. He's durn on Apple Cocklay and Android
0:17
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
0:20
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
0:25
Speaker 2: Here in Washington.
0:26
Speaker 3: It is also a day in which a lot is
0:28
Speaker 3: going on, all of it taking place on the day
0:30
Speaker 3: of the late Senator Lindsay Graham's funeral. There were, of course,
0:34
Speaker 3: some ceremonies at the Capitol Building earlier today, and there
0:38
Speaker 3: will be a full memorial service for him taking place
0:41
Speaker 3: at the National Cathedral this afternoon, and in attendance at
0:45
Speaker 3: that service will be heads of state, not just leaders
0:49
Speaker 3: of Congress in which Linda Graham spent so many years.
0:52
Speaker 3: The Ukrainian President vladimir's Lensky, of course, is here in Washington,
0:56
Speaker 3: as we've told you, as is the Israeli Prime Minister
0:58
Speaker 3: Benjamin Netanyaho, both who met with President Trump at the
1:01
Speaker 3: White House earlier today.
1:03
Speaker 2: Those meetings have now concluded.
1:04
Speaker 3: In the messaging at least from the White House Press
1:06
Speaker 3: Secretary Caroline Levett Well brief in nature.
1:09
Speaker 2: Joe was that they went well.
1:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, really is something to watch the images if you
1:14
Speaker 4: were with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube of
1:16
Speaker 4: the ceremony at the Capitol resolving to a memorial service
1:19
Speaker 4: that'll start about an hour from now at National Cathedral.
1:22
Speaker 4: That's why they had to get those meetings in early
1:24
Speaker 4: at the White House, and we're lucky to have Skyler
1:26
Speaker 4: Woodhouse with us. Bloomberg White House corresponded with her eyes
1:31
Speaker 4: on both conflicts and both meetings today. Skyler, thanks for
1:34
Speaker 4: coming to see us here in our Washington bureau.
1:38
Speaker 5: The Zelenski meeting will seize on first.
1:40
Speaker 4: That actually went pretty quickly here, and he's got a
1:42
Speaker 4: couple of big asks that sound familiar, including more defensive systems,
1:46
Speaker 4: but more support from Washington period as we work our
1:50
Speaker 4: way up to a sanctions vote later today. The stars
1:53
Speaker 4: appeared to be aligning for Zelenski here.
1:55
Speaker 6: Yeah.
1:55
Speaker 7: President Zelenski, he said that the meeting with President Trump
1:58
Speaker 7: was quote a good meeting. So only time will tell
2:01
Speaker 7: to see, you know how well those discussions went today.
2:05
Speaker 7: I think for reporters who are over at the White
2:07
Speaker 7: House today, they definitely were, you know, eager to get
2:10
Speaker 7: in the room to ask questions, and the meeting did
2:14
Speaker 7: not open up today, nor did the meeting with Prime
2:17
Speaker 7: Minister Benjamin and Yahoo. You know, so, I still think
2:20
Speaker 7: we're waiting for some of those true details, especially from
2:23
Speaker 7: President Donald Trump, and waiting to see if we'll get
2:26
Speaker 7: any sort of read out to learn more about those
2:28
Speaker 7: fine terms and what we can see going forward and
2:32
Speaker 7: how this relates to that sanctions bill.
2:34
Speaker 8: Yep.
2:34
Speaker 3: And we'll be watching the true social feed certainly, Skylar.
2:37
Speaker 3: It's interesting as we consider these two meetings and the
2:42
Speaker 3: position the leaders find themselves in relation to President Trump.
2:45
Speaker 3: There was a time in the not so recent past
2:48
Speaker 3: or distant past where Zelensky seemed to be really on
2:51
Speaker 3: the outs with not just the President but others in
2:53
Speaker 3: the administration, including Vice President J. D.
2:55
Speaker 2: Vance.
2:55
Speaker 3: It does seem that relationship has gotten warmer at the
2:58
Speaker 3: same time that for Prime Minister Yahu, on what his
3:01
Speaker 3: eighth visit to this White House, has been kind of
3:05
Speaker 3: publicly feuding with the President. Do we have any sense
3:09
Speaker 3: as to whether met Yahoo was able to ingratiate himself
3:12
Speaker 3: a bit more back into the fold.
3:14
Speaker 7: Yeah, Well, I think one thing that's interesting is while
3:16
Speaker 7: President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin n Yahoo were meeting.
3:21
Speaker 7: We did get some photos of the two leaders, of
3:25
Speaker 7: the leaders or the officials on both sides. You know,
3:29
Speaker 7: it's trying to sort of depict maybe a cozy environment.
3:33
Speaker 7: The two leaders were smiling, but you know, I think
3:36
Speaker 7: it'll be interesting to obviously see, uh what that actually
3:40
Speaker 7: means and how you know, the two leaders are going
3:44
Speaker 7: to take the next step with the Iran war. Obviously,
3:47
Speaker 7: leading up to this meeting, you know, there were a
3:49
Speaker 7: lot of reports and so forth around the President using
3:52
Speaker 7: some heavy language as it really as it related to
3:55
Speaker 7: President Benjamin and Yahoo and Foe calls and conversations. So
3:58
Speaker 7: I think there's a lot of questions to swirling on
4:01
Speaker 7: what the relationship is like and and how it will
4:03
Speaker 7: be going forward.
4:04
Speaker 4: Interesting analysis from Bloomberg's Dan Williams earlier, who saw those
4:08
Speaker 4: photos that were put out from the Israelis Pete Hexseth
4:11
Speaker 4: was in there, I believe, along with other officials, suggesting
4:14
Speaker 4: this is a meeting of import. Whether this is a
4:15
Speaker 4: datant of some sort or a breakup remains to be seen.
4:21
Speaker 4: The President's going to speak at the service today. Are
4:23
Speaker 4: we going to hear from him at National Cathedral.
4:25
Speaker 7: Yeah, I believe he will be speaking later today. You know,
4:28
Speaker 7: it'll be interesting to see what sort of direction.
4:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, he goes, so his mindsets as he says farewell
4:34
Speaker 4: to a friend who was pushing both of these causes.
4:36
Speaker 7: Absolutely, and especially former Senator Lindsay Gramm. I mean he
4:41
Speaker 7: was coming back from where was he he was, Yeah,
4:44
Speaker 7: he was in Ukraine. So it'll be interesting to see
4:47
Speaker 7: how what kind of tone the President strikes today and
4:52
Speaker 7: if you will reveal maybe any details from the meeting
4:55
Speaker 7: with Zelenski today, but certainly it'll be one thing watch
5:00
Speaker 7: for sure as the President sort of says goodbye to
5:02
Speaker 7: a close ally.
5:03
Speaker 8: Of the war.
5:04
Speaker 3: Indeed, we will all right Bloomberg, Skyler Woodhouse helping us
5:07
Speaker 3: cover the White House, thank you so much. And as
5:10
Speaker 3: Skuyler mentioned, it was Ukraine that Lindsay Graham had just
5:13
Speaker 3: returned from just prior to his death, and it's on
5:15
Speaker 3: Ukraine we want to focus now as we turn to
5:17
Speaker 3: Melinda Herring, who is a non resident Senior Fellow at
5:20
Speaker 3: the Atlantic Council and is back with us on Bloomberg
5:23
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Melinda, welcome back, and we have a
5:27
Speaker 3: lot we want to discuss with you in terms of
5:29
Speaker 3: the actual conflict in Ukraine. But I would wonder your
5:31
Speaker 3: take first on the legacy of the late Senator Lindsey
5:35
Speaker 3: Graham and what he meant for Ukraine, for Ukrainian leadership,
5:39
Speaker 3: given his relationship with Vladimir Zelinsky, and how he possibly
5:43
Speaker 3: via the sanctions bill that he helped author and negotiate
5:47
Speaker 3: around and push forward, could alter the course of this war.
5:52
Speaker 9: Thanks for having me back on so I think Senator
5:54
Speaker 9: Graham would be delighted today. He went to Ukraine ten
5:58
Speaker 9: times since the war started. His last trip was to Ukraine.
6:01
Speaker 9: His heart was in Kiev. He had a close relationship
6:05
Speaker 9: with Volodimar Zelensky, and I think it's important to say
6:07
Speaker 9: that Lindsey Graham wasn't just focused on Ukraine. He cared
6:11
Speaker 9: about free people around the world. So he had a
6:13
Speaker 9: heartbeat for the struggle for global freedom.
6:16
Speaker 8: But Ukraine was very very special to him.
6:19
Speaker 9: And we see his death has released a lot of energy.
6:23
Speaker 9: There's a strong desire to do something to honor his
6:26
Speaker 9: hard work. There's been a desire to pass another bill
6:30
Speaker 9: that would sanction Russia, and it's named after the late senator,
6:33
Speaker 9: and it looks like that's going to pass on Capitol
6:34
Speaker 9: Hill today.
6:36
Speaker 5: So what's that going to mean, Melinda, Welcome back.
6:40
Speaker 4: I just wonder if the impact of that sanctions bill passing,
6:44
Speaker 4: because it does appear to be on a glide slope here.
6:46
Speaker 4: Whether or not it receives a unanimous consent agreement as
6:50
Speaker 4: another matter. But the president's going to have some new
6:52
Speaker 4: tools here. There are questions about the extent to which
6:54
Speaker 4: he will use them.
6:55
Speaker 5: What do you believe?
6:57
Speaker 9: Right, so there is a question about whether he will
7:00
Speaker 9: use them. How good they are. They're not a ten.
7:03
Speaker 9: I'm not going to come on here and look you
7:05
Speaker 9: in the eye and say that the bill's fabulous, but
7:07
Speaker 9: it's a lot better than nothing. So remember, this is
7:09
Speaker 9: an administration that has done nothing on Ukraine since it
7:12
Speaker 9: came back to office. So this is fantastic. But I
7:15
Speaker 9: think more significantly, it will unlock the EU and push
7:18
Speaker 9: the EU to release its next package of sanctions.
7:21
Speaker 8: That's why it's significant, I see.
7:25
Speaker 3: Well, so then when we consider the significance of the
7:29
Speaker 3: decision making that this will force Vladimir Putin into Melinda,
7:34
Speaker 3: if at all, even if it is just a symbol
7:37
Speaker 3: that the US is willing to stand by Ukraine in
7:39
Speaker 3: a more firm matter than perhaps, to your point, has
7:41
Speaker 3: so far during this administration. Where would you be looking
7:45
Speaker 3: for signs that it is starting to affect the behavior
7:48
Speaker 3: of the Kremlin in the way in which Putin is
7:51
Speaker 3: conducting himself as this war continues.
7:54
Speaker 9: Great question. So it's not a great day in Moscow.
7:57
Speaker 9: There's a lot of things that are bothering r Putin
8:00
Speaker 9: right now. The first thing that's bothering him are Ukraine's
8:03
Speaker 9: long range strikes. Ukraine is getting better at hitting oil refineries.
8:09
Speaker 9: That is causing the prices to go up. It's causing
8:12
Speaker 9: fear in people. There's elite there's elite fights within the
8:15
Speaker 9: Moscow between the inner circle around Putin. So things are
8:22
Speaker 9: not rosy in Moscow, and he has upcoming elections.
8:25
Speaker 8: He also doesn't have enough people. We're seeing pictures of all.
8:28
Speaker 9: The heads of state in Washington, and the Finnish president
8:31
Speaker 9: is here and he's been very very clear that Russia
8:34
Speaker 9: has a math problem.
8:35
Speaker 8: So Russia does not have enough soldiers.
8:37
Speaker 9: To continue this war, and Putin cannot engage in a
8:41
Speaker 9: big mobilization or he.
8:42
Speaker 8: Has a political problem.
8:43
Speaker 9: Right now, the ratio is every five soldiers that are
8:47
Speaker 9: killed on the Russian side. One Ukrainian soldier is killed,
8:50
Speaker 9: so things are not rosy in Moscow, and I don't
8:54
Speaker 9: think people realize that Putin is actually in a bit
8:58
Speaker 9: of a pinch right now.
9:01
Speaker 4: Pretty big score for Zelensky. On his way over to
9:05
Speaker 4: the United States, he's stopped by the UK and posted
9:09
Speaker 4: from the Portsmouth Naval Base in the United Kingdom that
9:13
Speaker 4: the UK has decided to share what they call its
9:15
Speaker 4: stone Cloak technology. That's a system that jams Russian air
9:21
Speaker 4: defense systems, to your point, allowing Ukraine to go deeper
9:24
Speaker 4: into Russian territory. And it begs the question, Melinda, the
9:28
Speaker 4: extent to which Ukraine is relying on the United States
9:31
Speaker 4: as opposed to its European partners.
9:35
Speaker 8: So, Jim, great question.
9:37
Speaker 9: Since Trump has come back into office, the United States
9:39
Speaker 9: has not given any more military aid. It has delivered
9:43
Speaker 9: some military aid that the Biden administration arranged.
9:46
Speaker 8: But it hasn't given anything new.
9:48
Speaker 9: So we've been sitting on our hands since Trump came
9:50
Speaker 9: back into office. However, the US is still providing Intel support,
9:55
Speaker 9: and that's a really big deal. The Ukrainians rely on
9:59
Speaker 9: that Intel support for these long range strikes, so that
10:03
Speaker 9: has to continue.
10:04
Speaker 8: In order for Ukraine to prosecute the war.
10:08
Speaker 3: So the Intel support the licensing of patriot missiles, which
10:11
Speaker 3: we know we're discussed today, Melinda. What else does Ukraine
10:14
Speaker 3: then need from the United States.
10:19
Speaker 9: So we really need to see the United States go
10:23
Speaker 9: and put another assistance bill into place. The United States
10:26
Speaker 9: hasn't given a large amount of money to Ukraine since
10:29
Speaker 9: twenty twenty four.
10:30
Speaker 8: It was April twenty twenty four.
10:32
Speaker 9: Ukraine needs more funds in order to keep the war
10:35
Speaker 9: in place, but its most immediate need is air defense.
10:38
Speaker 9: So just in the month of July, the New York
10:41
Speaker 9: Times calculated how many ballistic missiles have been sent into Ukraine.
10:44
Speaker 9: It's one hundred and seventeen. And they don't have enough patriots.
10:48
Speaker 9: Patriots are the only things that can down these ballistic missiles.
10:51
Speaker 9: And just to remind you your viewers, ballistic missiles are
10:54
Speaker 9: hitting schools, churches, and ordinary citizens.
10:57
Speaker 8: And we're seeing the number.
10:58
Speaker 9: Of civilians at an all time high this month as
11:00
Speaker 9: a result of that increased pressure with these ballistic rockets
11:04
Speaker 9: in Ukraine.
11:06
Speaker 4: Wow, missiles for the patriots are needed literally every day.
11:09
Speaker 4: The quote from Zelensky in a post on x Well
11:13
Speaker 4: lend it to your point. He was talking with the
11:16
Speaker 4: Finish President Alexander stub also here for the Services today
11:21
Speaker 4: or they discussed the prospect of diplomacy, Zelensky suggesting that
11:26
Speaker 4: important meetings for next month are being prepared.
11:29
Speaker 5: What's he talking about?
11:31
Speaker 9: So what he's talking about is there's going to be
11:33
Speaker 9: a renewed effort to bring a peace agreement to the.
11:37
Speaker 8: War in Ukraine finally, and I think we're.
11:39
Speaker 9: Going to see Wikoff and Kushner come to Kiev. So
11:43
Speaker 9: they have been invited multiple times, they refuse to go.
11:46
Speaker 9: Wikoff in particular doesn't want to go because Joe, there
11:49
Speaker 9: are no airports that work in Ukraine. You have to
11:52
Speaker 9: fly into Warsaw or fly into Moldova and then take
11:55
Speaker 9: a car or a train and it's very uncomfortable.
11:58
Speaker 8: And Wikoff's not a young man.
11:59
Speaker 9: So General Kellogg used to make this trip all the time,
12:03
Speaker 9: but our chief negotiators on Ukraine haven't been to the country.
12:06
Speaker 8: That's a big problem. So I think out of this meeting,
12:09
Speaker 8: it was a very good meeting.
12:10
Speaker 9: In the Oval Office, we see Zelensky and Trump warm smiles,
12:14
Speaker 9: shaking hands, and it feels like we're back in a
12:17
Speaker 9: good place. But I think we're going to see more
12:19
Speaker 9: emphasis on negotiations that I think the president is going
12:22
Speaker 9: to send his chief negotiators there, and I think the
12:25
Speaker 9: Laura Lumer visit definitely helped with that. But that wasn't
12:28
Speaker 9: the only thing that has set us in this place.
12:33
Speaker 3: Laura Lumer now on the side of Ukraine is one
12:35
Speaker 3: of the more remarkable political evolutions that we've witnessed as
12:40
Speaker 3: of late.
12:41
Speaker 2: Melinda, I also want to ask you.
12:42
Speaker 3: You mentioned how it's not a great day in Moscow,
12:44
Speaker 3: that Putin is facing difficulties domestically. I wonder if we
12:48
Speaker 3: should be considering what domestic pressures President Zelensky is also facing.
12:52
Speaker 3: He fired his popular defense minister. There's been turnover in
12:55
Speaker 3: Ukraine's military leadership.
12:58
Speaker 2: What is the impact of them?
13:01
Speaker 8: Great question.
13:01
Speaker 9: Yes, So last week there was big news in Kiev
13:04
Speaker 9: the very popular defense minister. His name is Mihailo Fetterov
13:09
Speaker 9: and he's thirty five years old.
13:10
Speaker 8: He's been in office since twenty nineteen.
13:12
Speaker 9: He's been promoted, promoted, promoted, He's a rock star. He's
13:15
Speaker 9: responsible for Ukraine's transformation. So if you take your phone,
13:20
Speaker 9: you can register your baby online, you could get married
13:23
Speaker 9: and divorced online in Ukraine, it's even better and.
13:26
Speaker 8: Faster than Estonia. And it's because of this defense minister.
13:29
Speaker 9: So he's fabulous and no one understands why he was fired.
13:34
Speaker 9: So Zelinski didn't really answer the question. And there have
13:37
Speaker 9: been protests across the country. He's he's a nerd.
13:41
Speaker 8: I know him. He's not someone who toots his own horn.
13:44
Speaker 8: He doesn't speak English.
13:45
Speaker 9: He's from the sticks of Zupparisha, He's from occupied Ukraine.
13:49
Speaker 9: But his numbers, his trust numbers, were growing, and Zelinsky
13:52
Speaker 9: doesn't like to be overshadowed.
13:54
Speaker 8: We've seen this movie over and over again.
13:56
Speaker 9: You know what happened with his commander in chief with
14:00
Speaker 9: solutiony and he said, Solution need to London. But he
14:03
Speaker 9: got rid of Federoff because there was a real conflict
14:05
Speaker 9: between the Minister of Defense, Federoff and the commander in chief. Siroski.
14:08
Speaker 9: Siriski was old school that he was in his sixties.
14:11
Speaker 9: They called him a dinosaur, they called him the butcher
14:13
Speaker 9: of Kiev. He wanted to mobilize as many people and
14:16
Speaker 9: fight in sort of old Soviet tactics, and Federoff wanted
14:20
Speaker 9: to use technology and he wanted to revolutionize the armed forces,
14:24
Speaker 9: and the two of these guys couldn't communicate, and Ziliski
14:27
Speaker 9: said that he had to be in the room in
14:29
Speaker 9: order to get them to communicate. So Silisk's defense is,
14:32
Speaker 9: I don't have time for this. I had to fix
14:36
Speaker 9: this problem, Siriski. The commander chief has been fired, Federoff
14:40
Speaker 9: is no longer part of the government, and they're still negotiating,
14:42
Speaker 9: but there's still protests.
14:44
Speaker 8: So watch the space.
14:46
Speaker 4: She's an encyclopedia on this stuff and has been to
14:49
Speaker 4: keep countless times onlike the negotiating team. Melinda, it is
14:52
Speaker 4: great to have you back. We'll see what comes from
14:54
Speaker 4: today's meeting and from the services that will follow, and
14:57
Speaker 4: we'll have an update on the sanctions the Russia sang vote,
15:01
Speaker 4: likely tomorrow, as that's going to happen much later in
15:03
Speaker 4: the day into the evening following Zelenski's address to senators.
15:06
Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
15:09
Speaker 4: more coming up after this.
15:13
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
15:17
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockleay,
15:21
Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can
15:23
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
15:27
Speaker 1: York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
15:32
Speaker 4: Thanks for making Balance of Power part of your Tuesday
15:35
Speaker 4: here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We've got our eyes
15:37
Speaker 4: on the White House today, where the President is preparing
15:40
Speaker 4: to leave the mansion and make his way up to
15:43
Speaker 4: National Cathedral for.
15:45
Speaker 5: The funeral services.
15:46
Speaker 4: The memorial services being held today for the late Senator
15:48
Speaker 4: Lindsey Graham. He will not be the only world leader there.
15:51
Speaker 4: In fact, it's been a very busy day at the
15:54
Speaker 4: White House meetings with Vladimir Zelenski of Ukraine, as we've
15:57
Speaker 4: told you, and Benjaminette Yahoo of Israel. As we wait
16:00
Speaker 4: to hear headlines from those meetings, we want to bring
16:02
Speaker 4: in Tyler Kendall, Bloomberg's Washington correspondent, is on the North
16:06
Speaker 4: lawn right now as the President prepares to load into
16:08
Speaker 4: those vehicles that you see behind her if we're on
16:12
Speaker 4: if you're on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube. To the
16:15
Speaker 4: extent that we understand, Tyler, I know reporters were not
16:18
Speaker 4: inside these meetings, give us a sense of what was
16:21
Speaker 4: being discussed and how this all plays into the theme
16:23
Speaker 4: of the day, knowing Lindsay Graham supported these efforts to
16:26
Speaker 4: support Ukraine as well as to continue the war effort
16:31
Speaker 4: against Iran.
16:32
Speaker 6: Right, Joe, there are so many threads that we could
16:34
Speaker 6: tie together at this point as we wait for the
16:36
Speaker 6: motorcade behind me to depart and President Trump's expected remarks
16:41
Speaker 6: later this afternoon at the funeral of Senator Lindsay Graham.
16:45
Speaker 6: Lindsay Graham's legacy, of course, such a large part of
16:47
Speaker 6: it is the fact that he had the President's here
16:50
Speaker 6: and was a close advisor when it comes to foreign policy,
16:52
Speaker 6: and was considered to be a foreign policy hawk. And
16:55
Speaker 6: you had these two leaders here today meeting at the
16:58
Speaker 6: White House, are here in Washington because they were considered
17:03
Speaker 6: to be such close allies with the Senator. On the
17:06
Speaker 6: Ukrainian front, we heard from Zelenski. We haven't quite gotten
17:08
Speaker 6: that official readout from the White House yet, but we
17:11
Speaker 6: know that the Ukrainian president asked the US for more
17:13
Speaker 6: air defense systems, including Patriot missile batteries, something that the
17:18
Speaker 6: President told US reporters yesterday on Air Force One he
17:20
Speaker 6: would like to keep for the US at the moment,
17:24
Speaker 6: amid dwindling stockpiles though the US did grant that general
17:27
Speaker 6: license so that Ukraine can produce their own. The White
17:30
Speaker 6: House told us that today's meetings was part of an
17:32
Speaker 6: effort to kick start the negotiation process again when it
17:36
Speaker 6: comes to Russia and Ukraine, considering that that conflict has
17:39
Speaker 6: and those talks have been stalled at this point for months.
17:42
Speaker 6: And then on the Iranian side. On the Israeli side,
17:46
Speaker 6: excuse me, we did get some headlines out of Netanyahu
17:50
Speaker 6: spokesperson saying that the US and Israel are fully aligned
17:53
Speaker 6: when it comes to Iran, and we wait to see
17:55
Speaker 6: what happens next in the conflict. Of course, Joan Kealey,
17:58
Speaker 6: as you both know, we are currently in this pause
18:01
Speaker 6: in the fighting, as the US says that they are
18:03
Speaker 6: resuming negotiations, but our own reporting indicates it is really
18:07
Speaker 6: Iran and Oman that are talking about a potential deal
18:10
Speaker 6: to reopen the straight overmoves before we can even get
18:13
Speaker 6: to any sort of talks about what potential curbs on
18:16
Speaker 6: Iran's nuclear program would look like. All priority right now
18:19
Speaker 6: is on getting commercial shipping back.
18:21
Speaker 3: Up and running, all right, Bloomberg Tyler Kendall live at
18:25
Speaker 3: the White House for US, where again President Trump is
18:27
Speaker 3: getting set to depart en route to the National Cathedral
18:30
Speaker 3: for the memorial service of the late Senator Lindsay Graham.
18:33
Speaker 2: Tyler, thank you so.
18:34
Speaker 3: Much and when it pertains to the memorial service for
18:37
Speaker 3: Lindsay Graham, of course, is not the first ceremony we
18:40
Speaker 3: are seeing on his behalf today. There was also one
18:42
Speaker 3: held at the US Capitol earlier this morning, attended by
18:46
Speaker 3: many of Graham's former colleagues, including his former colleague now
18:50
Speaker 3: Vice President of the United States JD.
18:52
Speaker 2: Vance, who remembered him this way.
18:54
Speaker 10: He saw that the Senate at its very worst could
18:57
Speaker 10: be a venue for character assassination. But because he loved people,
19:02
Speaker 10: he saw that the Senate at its very best could
19:06
Speaker 10: be a deliberative body geared towards persuading people. So I
19:10
Speaker 10: choose to remember Lindsey Graham as a man who could
19:13
Speaker 10: disagree with you without being disagreeable. I choose to remember
19:17
Speaker 10: Lindsey Graham as a person who could fight with you
19:20
Speaker 10: on one issue, but fight for you on another issue.
19:27
Speaker 3: And as we remember the legacy of Senator Graham, we
19:30
Speaker 3: turn now to our political panel. Jeanie Shanzeno is with
19:32
Speaker 3: us Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow
19:36
Speaker 3: at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center, joined today by Sarah Chamberlain,
19:40
Speaker 3: a Republican strategist and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership.
19:45
Speaker 3: Sarah to come to you first, as so much of
19:48
Speaker 3: Washington and the world frankly remembers Lindsay Graham today in
19:52
Speaker 3: the United States Senate, in the United States Congress. How
19:55
Speaker 3: many more of Lindsey Graham's ilk are there?
20:00
Speaker 8: Not many left?
20:01
Speaker 11: I mean, whatever you thought of him, he was really
20:04
Speaker 11: a statesman. He reached across the aisle, worked with the Democrats.
20:09
Speaker 11: It's unfortunately there's few and far between, especially after this
20:12
Speaker 11: next round of retirements.
20:14
Speaker 4: Reminds me somewhat of the funeral of the late Senator
20:19
Speaker 4: Ted Kennedy, where you see a lawmaker drawing world leaders
20:23
Speaker 4: as if it was a presidential funeral.
20:25
Speaker 5: Almost.
20:25
Speaker 4: But the line that we just heard from JD. Vance
20:28
Speaker 4: really says a lot. A person who could fight with
20:31
Speaker 4: you on one issue but fight for you on another.
20:34
Speaker 4: Is that why he was friends with so many Democrats?
20:37
Speaker 11: Absolutely, and he was there and a lot of their issues,
20:40
Speaker 11: and he was the whisperer to President Trump. Yes, I mean,
20:43
Speaker 11: if the Democrats want to deliver a message to President
20:46
Speaker 11: Trump and didn't want to go to media, they went
20:48
Speaker 11: to Lindsay Graham, and Lindsay Graham called up the phone
20:50
Speaker 11: and told the President he will be very much missed.
20:54
Speaker 5: Whatever you thought about him, he.
20:56
Speaker 11: Was a very much a senator, a statesman, and both
21:02
Speaker 11: sides will miss them. It's such a tragedy.
21:05
Speaker 3: Well, and as we consider the liaison he was for Democrats,
21:08
Speaker 3: the liaison he was for Senate leadership with the White House,
21:11
Speaker 3: he also was one for other world leaders. Hence the
21:14
Speaker 3: presence today Genie of the Ukrainian President, of the Israeli
21:18
Speaker 3: Prime Minister at his memorial services and then meetings.
21:21
Speaker 2: At the White House.
21:22
Speaker 3: How should we consider the way in which the US
21:26
Speaker 3: is foreign policy and the reaching out to leaders of
21:30
Speaker 3: other democracies that Lindsey Graham did on behalf of the
21:34
Speaker 3: United States. And what will be missing in his absence.
21:39
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, we have experienced the loss of probably
21:43
Speaker 12: the most pro Israeli and pro Ukrainian voice, certainly in
21:47
Speaker 12: the Senate and Congress as a whole. I'm not sure
21:50
Speaker 12: we know who can take up that mantle, if anyone,
21:55
Speaker 12: particularly his hawkish views his protection and his in expanding
22:01
Speaker 12: democracy around the world at a time when democracy is
22:04
Speaker 12: very much under fire. You know, we hear voices. You know,
22:08
Speaker 12: perhaps Laura Lumer can take up this with Ukraine. I'm
22:12
Speaker 12: not sure that carries the same weight at this point.
22:15
Speaker 12: And that's who Lindsey Graham was. And it's a very
22:18
Speaker 12: unusual position for a senator to be in, and he
22:23
Speaker 12: was in it because he carefully put himself in that position.
22:26
Speaker 12: If we go back to twenty sixteen, he and Donald
22:29
Speaker 12: Trump were great adversaries, and he worked very, very carefully
22:34
Speaker 12: to gin up a relationship with Donald Trump that seems
22:37
Speaker 12: to have been real because he knew if he had
22:39
Speaker 12: any hope of moving Donald Trump, particularly on foreign policy,
22:44
Speaker 12: and they were complete adversaries in that realm, that he
22:47
Speaker 12: had to be friends with him and be on the
22:49
Speaker 12: golf courts with him and be.
22:50
Speaker 8: In the room with him.
22:51
Speaker 12: And he did that successfully, maybe to the detriment of
22:54
Speaker 12: Donald Trump at home, but he did that successfully. We
22:57
Speaker 12: saw that exactly five months ago and the President started
23:01
Speaker 12: this war which Lindsey Graham was a major proponent of.
23:06
Speaker 4: We're seeing some shots from inside the National Cathedral now
23:09
Speaker 4: some live video.
23:10
Speaker 5: If you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube.
23:13
Speaker 4: Benjamin nettya who was just speaking with the Defense Secretary
23:17
Speaker 4: Pete Hegseth before they took their respective seats here, and
23:22
Speaker 4: seeing Mike Pence spend some time with Vladimir Zelenski. There
23:27
Speaker 4: is Justice Kavanaugh as well and can vote. As we
23:32
Speaker 4: look at some of the Jamison Greer as well members
23:34
Speaker 4: of the administration who are in the room here, Sarah,
23:37
Speaker 4: It's not often you put everyone in a room like
23:39
Speaker 4: this on a solemn occasion. The emotions that are going
23:42
Speaker 4: to be felt when the president's speaking is something that
23:45
Speaker 4: everyone here can share. To what extent is this funeral
23:48
Speaker 4: going to help propel the issues that Lindsey Graham supported.
23:52
Speaker 11: Well, I certainly believe it's going to. I said to say,
23:55
Speaker 11: help Ukraine. I mean, we know that they're meeting this
23:58
Speaker 11: afternoon the Sea early this evening, and I think that
24:01
Speaker 11: we will see more funding going to Ukraine, more support
24:03
Speaker 11: going to Ukraine, because I do think when the President
24:06
Speaker 11: got iffy on Ukraine, it was Lindsay Graham Who's like, listen,
24:09
Speaker 11: we have to continue to support Ukraine. Ukraine is very important.
24:12
Speaker 11: We cannot let Russia take over Ukraine because then the
24:16
Speaker 11: dominoes could fall with other nations.
24:19
Speaker 3: Well, so as we consider the Russia sanctions bill that
24:22
Speaker 3: the Senate is expected to have votes on tonight, Genie,
24:26
Speaker 3: in the name of putting pressure on Russia and supporting Ukraine,
24:29
Speaker 3: we know that there's sixty two co sponsors. That means
24:31
Speaker 3: it's going to get through the Senate. Bauzilenski is likely
24:35
Speaker 3: going to try to more support from Democrats who, yes,
24:39
Speaker 3: most likely by and large want to support the Ukrainian cause,
24:42
Speaker 3: but are concerned that the cost of that is giving
24:45
Speaker 3: the president more tariff power, giving.
24:48
Speaker 2: That back to him.
24:49
Speaker 3: How ultimately do you think Democrats will come down as
24:52
Speaker 3: a whole on that.
24:54
Speaker 12: You know, to your point, Kaylee, the twenty two co
24:56
Speaker 12: sponsors are Democrats. It's sixty two our sponsoring. That is,
25:01
Speaker 12: you know, a win, even if Zelensky doesn't go up
25:03
Speaker 12: there and advocate for it. I certainly think all the
25:07
Speaker 12: outpouring of love for Lindsey Graham today and remembering him
25:11
Speaker 12: is going to help. But Democrats have a right to
25:14
Speaker 12: be concerned because this gives the president an enormous tool
25:20
Speaker 12: that he hasn't had. It's an enormous expansion of power.
25:24
Speaker 12: What Democrats have tried to do is support Ukraine without
25:28
Speaker 12: giving the president that power, and of course it seeds
25:31
Speaker 12: power from Congress, who controls trade, who controls foreign commerce,
25:36
Speaker 12: to the President, and that's a potential violation of separation
25:39
Speaker 12: of powers. So I think we have a ways to
25:42
Speaker 12: go here. It's also, interestingly the first time in American
25:46
Speaker 12: history that if this passes, and I think it will,
25:50
Speaker 12: Congress is authorizing the use of tariffs as a geopolitical
25:54
Speaker 12: weapon to punish secondary countries like India, like Russia, like China,
25:59
Speaker 12: rather than as a standard trade remedy. And that's potentially,
26:03
Speaker 12: in the long term, very dangerous, and that's why there
26:06
Speaker 12: is remaining concern despite support for Ukraine.
26:10
Speaker 4: Jenny Shanzano and Sarah Chamberlain, we appreciate your joining us here.
26:14
Speaker 4: With our eyes on National Cathedral. Many more members of
26:17
Speaker 4: the Cabinet have arrived, as we have eyes now on
26:20
Speaker 4: Scott Bessent RFK Junior speaking with Benjamin Nettan Yahoo. The
26:25
Speaker 4: Interior Secretary Doug Bergham has arrived as well. As we
26:28
Speaker 4: approach a full quorum for the cabinet, stay with us
26:32
Speaker 4: on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up
26:35
Speaker 4: after this.
26:39
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
26:43
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on
26:46
Speaker 1: Alma Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
26:49
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
26:53
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
26:56
Speaker 3: We're watching the National Cathedral where memorial services for Senator
26:59
Speaker 3: Lindsay Graham are about to begin. Much of President Trump's cabinet,
27:03
Speaker 3: as well as leaders from the United States Senate, are
27:05
Speaker 3: in attendance. The Secretary of State Marco Rubio just arrived.
27:09
Speaker 3: You also find in the audience heads of state from
27:11
Speaker 3: a number of countries, including Ukrainian President Vlatimer Zelinsky and
27:15
Speaker 3: the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin at Nyahu, who if you
27:17
Speaker 3: are joining us on YouTube or Bloomberg TV you can
27:19
Speaker 3: see right now is sharing a few words with the
27:22
Speaker 3: Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth,
27:26
Speaker 3: after meeting earlier today with President Trump at the White House.
27:29
Speaker 3: We did get a readout of that meeting from the
27:31
Speaker 3: Israeli Prime Minister's office, saying that the US and Israel
27:34
Speaker 3: are fully aligned on Iran and that Israel supports whatever
27:38
Speaker 3: path President Trump chooses. And we heard from President Trump
27:42
Speaker 3: earlier today as he did an interview on Fox News
27:45
Speaker 3: about the potential pass that lay ahead, a diplomatic one, yes,
27:47
Speaker 3: but another that could potentially target Pickax Mountain.
27:51
Speaker 13: BB's telling me that because he wants me to stay involved.
27:54
Speaker 13: I mean, I don't know's we have defined it is
27:57
Speaker 13: because of space forts. We have the greatest cameras in
28:00
Speaker 13: the world focused. We know exactly what's going on. But
28:03
Speaker 13: no I heard BB announced that. I said, why didn't
28:06
Speaker 13: you just tell it to me? Why do you have
28:07
Speaker 13: to announce it to the world. I know exactly what's
28:09
Speaker 13: going on at Pickaxe. It's not a big problem. We
28:12
Speaker 13: took out their nuclear sites, and we'll have to take
28:15
Speaker 13: out Pickaxe if we don't make a deal. We don't
28:17
Speaker 13: make a deal, we'll take it out very easily.
28:21
Speaker 4: Yet another reference to Pickaxe Mountain, which is something he's
28:23
Speaker 4: been talking about a lot lately, with reports based on
28:27
Speaker 4: Israeli intelligence that thousands of empty centrifuges were hidden below
28:31
Speaker 4: some four hundred feet of bedrock beneath Pickaxe Mountain.
28:36
Speaker 5: We'll see if we get that far.
28:37
Speaker 4: Because the fact of the matter is, we have a
28:39
Speaker 4: continued pause in hostilities. It's been since Friday that the
28:43
Speaker 4: US was trading fire with Iran, and there are questions
28:47
Speaker 4: about what motivated that decision and about what might come next,
28:50
Speaker 4: which is why we're always lucky to have Ben Jensen
28:53
Speaker 4: with us. He's in studio in our Washington bureau, director
28:56
Speaker 4: of the Futures Lab, and a senior fellow for the
28:58
Speaker 4: Defense and Security Apartment at the Center for Strategic and
29:01
Speaker 4: International Studies. This is the man counting the missiles as
29:05
Speaker 4: they're fired and procured, and.
29:06
Speaker 5: Bennett's great to have you back.
29:08
Speaker 4: As always here on Bloomberg, there was reporting something I
29:11
Speaker 4: was talking to Kaylee about earlier. Admiral Brad Cooper was
29:15
Speaker 4: the one who advised the president to cool it, suggesting
29:18
Speaker 4: that this continued strike against the Strait was not effective
29:23
Speaker 4: any longer. Some suggested that that decision was motivated by
29:27
Speaker 4: dwindling supplies of munitions.
29:28
Speaker 14: What do you make of so, first, we always have
29:31
Speaker 14: to be careful about what happens behind closed doors, right,
29:34
Speaker 14: It's like bad high school gossip fifty percent of time,
29:37
Speaker 14: maybe fifty one. So if Admiral Cooper did indeed say that,
29:41
Speaker 14: my guess is what he was really trying to indicate
29:43
Speaker 14: to the president is here are your viable range of
29:45
Speaker 14: military options, and so should you continue to prosecute the
29:49
Speaker 14: war this way? Here are the risks the ships will
29:51
Speaker 14: incur because of the interceptors. And I think more importantly
29:54
Speaker 14: what most people miss is you can't separate the way
29:57
Speaker 14: we fight in Iran from the way we plan to
29:59
Speaker 14: deterch I know from the way we plan to deter
30:02
Speaker 14: Russia because a lot of the component parts for these
30:05
Speaker 14: missiles are common across multiple missiles.
30:07
Speaker 5: And so Admiral Cooper.
30:08
Speaker 14: Given his experience, lifetime of service and multiple combatant commands
30:12
Speaker 14: and at sea, isn't just looking at this in his
30:14
Speaker 14: responsibility as Sentcom commander. He's also making sure he's giving
30:18
Speaker 14: what we call best military advice to the president. So
30:21
Speaker 14: the president weighs the costs of an additional thirty sixty
30:24
Speaker 14: days of a campaign with an unclear political outcome or
30:27
Speaker 14: transition versus the cost and risk and in curves to
30:31
Speaker 14: deter those other possibilities in the horizon.
30:34
Speaker 3: So is it fair to say that this isn't about
30:36
Speaker 3: inability to continue potentially heavy operations against Iran, it's the
30:41
Speaker 3: opportunity cost of what that pursuit would mean for other theaters.
30:44
Speaker 5: This is why I love Bloomberg.
30:45
Speaker 14: Nowhere else could we talk about terms like opportunity costs.
30:48
Speaker 5: You hit it on the head right.
30:50
Speaker 14: So it's not we absolutely have our capabilities to do
30:53
Speaker 14: this and people forget. In that initial thirty day campaign
30:56
Speaker 14: there was a period of time where we switched from
30:59
Speaker 14: standoff person munitions to we had so decimated their air
31:02
Speaker 14: defenses we could fly in and drop laser guided bombs
31:06
Speaker 14: and even GPS guide of munitions. We have got tons
31:10
Speaker 14: of those. So it's not that we can't fight, it's
31:12
Speaker 14: a question of the way you want to fight relative
31:15
Speaker 14: to the military objective. So where a naval voice would
31:18
Speaker 14: be concerned is if I'm going to escort ships through
31:21
Speaker 14: the Strait and basically make the oil markets happy again,
31:24
Speaker 14: that means I'm going to have to have a lot
31:26
Speaker 14: of defensive measures in place to counter Iranian coastal defense,
31:30
Speaker 14: cruise missiles to counter those fast boats, to even counter drones,
31:35
Speaker 14: and most of our munitions are sadly still built to
31:38
Speaker 14: be one to four million dollar interceptors being shot at
31:42
Speaker 14: a ten to twenty thousand, even one million dollars, So
31:45
Speaker 14: the cost effectiveness of the exchange decreases the efficacy of
31:49
Speaker 14: the operation, and so that's the real opportunity costs they're juggling.
31:52
Speaker 13: Now.
31:52
Speaker 14: What you're hitting on I think most people miss too,
31:55
Speaker 14: is that they're actually really interesting ways should military operations
31:59
Speaker 14: comes because a pause for me always equals planning and
32:02
Speaker 14: getting in position that I think we're starting to see.
32:05
Speaker 5: So a lot of people missed.
32:06
Speaker 14: How important that Saronic Corsair strike was about a week ago.
32:11
Speaker 14: How important it is that we have Task Force eighty second.
32:14
Speaker 14: So the Army is in the Middle East sinking ships,
32:17
Speaker 14: not just the navy.
32:18
Speaker 4: And howsair is the autonomous boat that we saw in
32:21
Speaker 4: Actually we have talked about that.
32:22
Speaker 5: Is cost effective.
32:23
Speaker 14: Ye if I shoot three to five of those at
32:25
Speaker 14: a million dollars apiece to hit an Iranian sub in
32:28
Speaker 14: the pier, that's worth one hundred to two hundred million dollars.
32:31
Speaker 14: That's cost effective fighting. That's a different campaign structure. So
32:35
Speaker 14: I actually think people are discounting the creativity of ways
32:39
Speaker 14: we could prosecute this campaign. It's just a question of
32:41
Speaker 14: how quickly can we scale up those unmanned surface vehicles,
32:45
Speaker 14: how many high mars or prism missiles, or we will
32:48
Speaker 14: indle let the army shoot and even the marine shoot
32:51
Speaker 14: while we're still building up our industrial base to recapitalize
32:55
Speaker 14: the over like I think it was ninety six hours
32:57
Speaker 14: five two hundred exquisite munitions used.
32:59
Speaker 5: Fascinating.
33:00
Speaker 4: So we're talking about Iran so far, and I'm sure
33:03
Speaker 4: we're not done yet. But when you add the cause
33:05
Speaker 4: in Ukraine, this conversation gets to be a little bit
33:08
Speaker 4: more complicated. If interceptor missiles are the commodity, that's exactly
33:12
Speaker 4: what President Zelenski is asking for. I know they have
33:16
Speaker 4: a license to make them. Do they simply need to
33:18
Speaker 4: make their own or do we have anything to offer?
33:20
Speaker 5: I think all the above.
33:21
Speaker 14: I mean, sadly, even if we did get that license,
33:24
Speaker 14: it's going to take a year to possibly two to
33:26
Speaker 14: three to put.
33:27
Speaker 5: That in place.
33:28
Speaker 14: This isn't like an Ikea kit where you and I
33:30
Speaker 14: go home, or if you're hopefully you're better than I am,
33:32
Speaker 14: my Achia kits usually fail.
33:34
Speaker 5: That wouldn't work for me either yet.
33:35
Speaker 14: Yeah, So the pack three interceptor IKEA kit is not
33:38
Speaker 14: build it yourself in one day, one month, one year,
33:42
Speaker 14: and it's going to require infrastructure that's targetable by the
33:45
Speaker 14: Russian so there's a real cat and mouse game, so
33:47
Speaker 14: it's going to have to be developing additional low cost interceptors.
33:51
Speaker 14: A lot of this is an intelligence game, so you've
33:52
Speaker 14: heard reporting come out now where Ukrainian commanders will routinely
33:56
Speaker 14: let certain missiles through because they can do intelligence tell
34:00
Speaker 14: not going to hit something of value or a population center.
34:03
Speaker 14: So that means it's less interceptors to fire at the target.
34:06
Speaker 14: And the real bottleneck here is common for it doesn't
34:09
Speaker 14: matter if it's a Patriot interceptor bad. A Tomahawk missile
34:12
Speaker 14: comes down to a few key components, so one ammonia perchlorate,
34:17
Speaker 14: so it's a weird chemical that allows you to have
34:21
Speaker 14: solid rocket motors or small rocket motors fire.
34:24
Speaker 5: We have only one.
34:24
Speaker 14: Plant in the US that makes ammonia perchlorate high explosives.
34:28
Speaker 14: We sadly have only one plant in Tennessee that makes
34:31
Speaker 14: the type of high explosives turbofans, So the things that
34:34
Speaker 14: are working in a lot of the cruise missiles in particular,
34:36
Speaker 14: we got one plant in Michigan. So it doesn't matter
34:39
Speaker 14: how much money you throw out the problem. There is
34:41
Speaker 14: still a massive industrial backlog and supply chain issue that
34:45
Speaker 14: the Trump administration is recognized. Yeah, but it's going to
34:47
Speaker 14: take us years to work through that.
34:49
Speaker 3: And yet they've requested a one and a half trillion
34:51
Speaker 3: dollar defense budget for the upcoming fiscal year. What you're
34:54
Speaker 3: telling us then is effectively, you could get the money,
34:56
Speaker 3: but you aren't going to be able to spend it
34:58
Speaker 3: very quickly because the industrial basis isn't there to.
35:00
Speaker 5: Back it up. Absolutely, you will get it in pieces.
35:03
Speaker 14: And to be fair, I think you know he doesn't
35:06
Speaker 14: do a lot of media, but Secretary Feinberg has really
35:09
Speaker 14: been the person behind the scenes moving this forward. And
35:12
Speaker 14: that's why you have now not five but seven year
35:14
Speaker 14: deals and so you have to spend now to get
35:17
Speaker 14: the missiles coming online to scale production. But you're right,
35:21
Speaker 14: it's not going to happen anytime soon, which is why
35:23
Speaker 14: you've seen a separate initiative that's really creative of trying
35:27
Speaker 14: to bank rule cheap munition projects. You've had three announced
35:31
Speaker 14: in like the last year. One was the Air Forces.
35:33
Speaker 14: It was like the Family of Affordable Missiles. Almost sounds
35:37
Speaker 14: like a you know, Honda Odyssey for the family to
35:40
Speaker 14: go shoot someone, but it's affordable missiles. There's a new
35:42
Speaker 14: one the ground based affordable missile, so two hundred and
35:46
Speaker 14: fifty thousand dollars or less to shoot a long range
35:49
Speaker 14: munition that's autonomous. And so these contracts are being structured
35:53
Speaker 14: cleverly to enable competition and allow people to then actually
35:58
Speaker 14: see if we can alter the entire higher incentive structure
36:01
Speaker 14: for the industrial base. So I have a mix of
36:02
Speaker 14: new players and primes to meet the demand signal on
36:05
Speaker 14: the market.
36:06
Speaker 5: Wow, really interesting. Ukraine entered the theater.
36:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, in an amazing way over the past twenty four
36:15
Speaker 4: to forty eight hours, actually striking in Iranian Caspian C
36:18
Speaker 4: commercial vessel in the Caspian C. Are those parts that
36:22
Speaker 4: you're talking about what Iran was delivering to Russia?
36:25
Speaker 14: Maybe mostly Iran can deliver to Russia right now our
36:30
Speaker 14: component parts for Shahed. So we heard the term Shahed,
36:33
Speaker 14: We've talked about it. The Russians are actually getting more
36:35
Speaker 14: effect out of their own version of it, called the Gharan,
36:38
Speaker 14: and they're making them rocket powered as well. So my
36:41
Speaker 14: guess is the Iranians were sending drone components. I don't
36:44
Speaker 14: know though, but honestly, the more President Trump can do
36:48
Speaker 14: to encourage Zelensky to take those strikes, the more we
36:52
Speaker 14: can do, I mean, why build it when we can
36:54
Speaker 14: buy a Ukrainian one two? They can produce more drones
36:57
Speaker 14: than even they can use in this conflict. Sorobably need
37:00
Speaker 14: to start getting more creative more quickly of those weapons
37:04
Speaker 14: pairings matching. I'm talking about why fire a five million
37:07
Speaker 14: dollars missile when one hundred thousand dollars drone will do well?
37:10
Speaker 3: And speaking of the cheap drones, do we have a
37:12
Speaker 3: sense bent of how many Iran has left to what
37:15
Speaker 3: extent they're still capable of building them? Because we have
37:17
Speaker 3: continually heard from President Trump that it's not just their drones,
37:20
Speaker 3: their ballistic missiles, their navy, all of it has been destroyed,
37:22
Speaker 3: and yet we're still hitting targets and they still clearly
37:25
Speaker 3: have the capability to at least fire at US assets,
37:28
Speaker 3: even if most of them are intercepted.
37:30
Speaker 2: So what's the actual status of Iran's capability?
37:33
Speaker 5: So it's so hard to know.
37:35
Speaker 14: I think the President was being genuine and definitely Admiral
37:38
Speaker 14: Cooper when they gave the battle damage assessment up front,
37:42
Speaker 14: but that was really striking the conventional Iranian forces and
37:45
Speaker 14: known forces.
37:46
Speaker 5: What Iran has.
37:47
Speaker 14: Learned from North Korea is to dig baby dig. They
37:50
Speaker 14: go underground, so they have entire factories built underground to
37:55
Speaker 14: produce drones, to produce components, and that's what makes a
37:59
Speaker 14: very huge and tells challenge. So you never fully are
38:02
Speaker 14: confident you got all of the production site. So even
38:04
Speaker 14: if you can have an intelligence estimate say yes, you
38:06
Speaker 14: destroyed by definition destroyed as one hundred percent, it can
38:09
Speaker 14: be like seventy five to eighty, they're still producing more,
38:12
Speaker 14: and because the drones are cheap, they can produce more.
38:15
Speaker 14: We knew even in the initial strikes that we were
38:17
Speaker 14: hitting the launchers that we never were getting all of
38:20
Speaker 14: the ballistic missiles. What surprised me is the speed with
38:23
Speaker 14: which Iran has recovered the ability to shoot ballistic missiles.
38:27
Speaker 14: So there's definitely some disconnect there that I'm not sure
38:31
Speaker 14: what it is. The scariest one is that Iran also
38:33
Speaker 14: has built its launchers to look like commercial vehicles. So
38:37
Speaker 14: we still believe in the law of armed conflicts, so
38:39
Speaker 14: we're not going to shoot something that looks like a
38:41
Speaker 14: school bus. But it turns out it's actually a launcher
38:44
Speaker 14: for a anti ship cruise missile. So there's a lot
38:46
Speaker 14: of deception involved in this that makes it really difficult
38:50
Speaker 14: to say with confidence what you did destroy. And sadly
38:53
Speaker 14: Iran doesn't need that much to conduct sea in area denial.
38:57
Speaker 14: They can fire a salvo a five to thirty ballistic
39:00
Speaker 14: missiles every month and hundreds of drones every month in
39:04
Speaker 14: intermittent intervals, and it keeps us on a defensive footing.
39:08
Speaker 14: That's the difficulty of breaking that type of defense.
39:11
Speaker 4: Can I ask before they give us the hook, just quickly,
39:13
Speaker 4: what do we need to drop on Pickaxe Mountain to
39:15
Speaker 4: get that far other underground?
39:16
Speaker 14: Is that the mother of all bondsers is something we
39:18
Speaker 14: I think the moab would do it really how deep
39:20
Speaker 14: it is. I think what you're probably going to have
39:22
Speaker 14: to do is fall back to one of the true
39:25
Speaker 14: enduring truth well, the enduring truth of special forces. The
39:29
Speaker 14: infinite design of an operation is relative for superiority, meaning
39:32
Speaker 14: is probably going to have to be one of the
39:34
Speaker 14: most sophisticated special forces missions in history.
39:36
Speaker 5: You put people down there, you'd have.
39:38
Speaker 14: To put an outer cord on and basically absorb Iranian
39:41
Speaker 14: counter attacks.
39:42
Speaker 5: Wow, while you have.
39:44
Speaker 14: Specialized engineers and special forces teams go down and either
39:48
Speaker 14: detonate and collapse the mountain from with them, or take
39:51
Speaker 14: the uranium out if it's there.
39:53
Speaker 3: Amazing, so maybe not as easy as the President suggesting
39:56
Speaker 3: it would be if there's no deal.
39:57
Speaker 2: Ben Jensen, super smart stuff.
39:58
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us US from this
40:00
Speaker 3: at Stener for Strategic and International Studies.
40:06
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
40:09
Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
40:12
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
40:15
Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern
40:18
Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.