Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 315: Real Rain, More Heat, & Severe Storms: What’s Next Across the Cattle Belt with Gary Lezack

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315: Real Rain, More Heat, & Severe Storms: What’s Next Across the Cattle Belt with Gary Lezack · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Today we are once again welcoming Gary Lezak back to the
• 0:04
  Cattle USA Daily podcast. Gary has been on with us for
• 0:09
  almost a year and a half now. It's been pretty crazy to think
• 0:13
  about how long Gary has been with us recording this podcast
• 0:16
  and coming on every week or bi weekly to share about the
• 0:20
  weather and what we are seeing in long term predictive weather.
• 0:25
  Today, Gary is heading on some rain that we can expect across
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  the cattle bell throughout the United States in the next few
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  weeks. And then he is also touching on
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  summer months. What we can expect as we go into
• 0:37
  those summer months, some heat waves coming up and some severe
• 0:41
  weather outlook as well. Before we hop into today's
• 0:43
  podcast episode with Gary, if you are watching on YouTube,
• 0:46
  make sure you take a second to hit that subscribe button.
• 0:48
  And like this episode. If you're watching on any of our
• 0:50
  other podcast platforms, make sure that you take a second to
• 0:53
  go follow the show, write and review it and share it with a
• 0:55
  friend. Doing all of these things just
• 0:57
  continues to help us reach more people and make a wider impact
• 1:01
  across the entirety of the cattle industry.
• 1:03
  Thank you for being here. And without further ado, let's
• 1:05
  go ahead and hear from Gary. Lisa.
• 1:11
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
• 1:13
  Your go to source. For the latest livestock
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  markets, industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
• 1:19
  today, I'm your host Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate
• 1:22
  for agriculture. Here to keep.
• 1:24
  You informed and connected, now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Gary, welcome back to another podcast once again, how are you
• 1:37
  this morning? I'm doing fantastic.
• 1:39
  I hope you're doing great, but it's great to be here a lot
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  going on. We somehow, someway or moving
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  through spring and summer is now just less than two months away.
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  And this weather pattern we're in is fascinating.
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  So in this this segment, this show, I want to talk to you
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  about some of these fascinating things that are happening
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  because we went through this weather pattern from October,
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  November, when it's set up through the winter, through the
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  brutally cold outbreaks that happened at the end of January
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  into February. And that part of pattern just
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  came through and no shock. We just had a freeze and a frost
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  and a cold, cold spell across especially Nebraska, Iowa and
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  northward. And now we're moving into May
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  and it's a fascinating weather pattern.
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  Lauren, It is. I am really just trying to enjoy
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  the weather that we've got going on right now in Manhattan.
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  It has been a beautiful spring and I have been trying to absorb
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  it. And you saying summer is 2
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  months off is still mind boggling to me because I feel
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  like it's just around the corner with the way that the weather's
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  been acting. But like you said, it's a
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  fascinating mother pattern and I can't wait to hear all about it.
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  We're going to have a real spring.
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  Let me just tell you that there's a block right now that's
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  forming over Greenland and there's a block that's forecast
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  to form in the next 10 days over Alaska.
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  But that does it prevents summer from settling in.
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  So that's means we're going to have a real spring as we go into
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  May. Now, late May, when it heats up,
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  when there, you know, all, all bets are off there.
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  But here's what's going on. We have sort of a fascinating
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  spring pattern. There's sharp contrast that
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  we've had. There's been some rain, timely
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  rains. Now a farmer, just an oldie and
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  the oldie dairy farm up in northern Kansas near the
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  Nebraska border, they're getting almost all their planting and
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  they have thousands of acres I think to plant and takes about
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  10 days for them to plant their acreage.
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  And so I've been in contact with them and whether 2020 has been
• 3:44
  consulting with them and to make sure they optimize.
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  They were waiting to plant because of the possible freeze
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  and then rain. They had to got a little delay
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  to get wet. But by Friday this week, they
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  will have had it pretty much planted.
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  There's a chance of thunderstorms Thursday could
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  delay that last acreage. But the good news, they're just
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  about done planting. And now he tells me he doesn't
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  want 5 inches of rain. He'll take one inch of rain.
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  So me as a meteorologist, I've, we've been predicting the AG
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  belt accurately for five years and I'm still learning, hey,
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  we're all still learning about life, about the farm, about
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  agriculture. There's always new things, new
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  developments, new technologies. And what we're sharing with you
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  with the LRC, the cycling pattern is a technology that
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  helps plan your planting, helps you know when a disease
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  environment might be developing due to heat and humidity,
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  etcetera. But getting those crops in is
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  the first stress. Then will the rain be timely in
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  the next two weeks? The models are short.
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  In fact, I'm going to call it up.
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  I just want to see what it does show on this latest data.
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  The latest data just came in. Interesting.
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  It's already a little bit different as usual.
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  But it has two inches of liquid rainfall or more from Goodland,
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  where it has been extremely dry. In northwest Kansas, across the
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  Nebraska, Kansas border, you go up to Grand Island and Hastings.
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  It's also been extremely dry with drought conditions
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  increasing. But this shows 1 1/2 to 2 inches
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  of rain. As Justin said, that'd be
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  perfect for his farm. But in Washington County, where
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  his farm is located, it's forecasting 2 to 3 inches with
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  four inches of rain just northwest of Kansas City.
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  Because of these blocks that are developing up there, it's
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  providing the conditions for it to be rather wet.
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  So if you haven't put it on, been real aggressive and getting
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  the crops in, you have time to get them in before all this rain
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  gets in the next. That's the 10 day to 15 day
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  outlook. So there are going to be many
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  chances for rain adding up to 2345 inches.
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  Be nice to get all that seed down before that happens.
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  Yes, and it's so encouraging that we're going to get an
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  actual spring. Feels like it has been really
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  long time since we've been able to enjoy a true spring across
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  the Midwest and not just jump from freezing temps straight to
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  110. That is really encouraging and
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  praying for rain or dry for whatever people are kind of
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  needing in their area. Because I know our friends in
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  Iowa and Illinois have been kind of living in a swamp recently.
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  And then our friends in northwest Kansas are like, we
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  need moisture. We need any of it.
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  Absolutely. It's just kind of how the
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  weather pattern is working right now, right, Carrie?
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  Like anywhere that needs it isn't really getting it.
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  And anywhere that doesn't need it is like, OK, we can, we can
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  calm down now. Exactly.
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  So you know, when it gets up to 90° later in May, Don't tell me
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  that summer just all of a sudden happened.
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  We didn't have spring. Let's enjoy this next few weeks
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  before that happens because there's no real heat showing up.
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  OK, So there's enough heat to cause some severe weather risks.
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  So right now the pattern is setting up were, for example,
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  across western Kansas and the High Plains of eastern Colorado,
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  3 to 6 inches of liquid is expected between now and the end
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  of July. That's not a lot of rain.
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  So we need to get it timed out perfectly to Kansas City area,
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  eastern Kansas and northeastern Kansas, western Missouri,
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  southern Iowa. 10 to 16 inches of liquid rainfall is expected
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  to fall in your farm. That's from the RC model.
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  And we have a dashboard that shows you day by day or week by
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  week when the rain is expected to fall.
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  And you can have that in January already.
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  If you've had the dashboard, you'd be able to know that that
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  is consistent, which weeks will be wet, which weeks will be dry
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  through the season, but 10 to 16 inches of rain of the watch for
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  flooding, muddy feed lots and delayed field work when those
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  rains hit and the next two weeks, some areas could have 1/3
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  of that already just like that as we go into the first week of
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  May. So very interesting.
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  There could be too much rain in spots and causing some problems
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  for the cattle. See.
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  And then just in I'm done looking at the weather pattern
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  right now. It's just fascinating, Lauren
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  watching the setup and it is right on schedule and here's
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  what happens. Here's how we forecast the
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  weather. I want to use a hurricane as an
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  example. We could use like a winter storm
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  and project when that would arrive in the spring, in the
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  summer and what it means and we'll do that.
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  But Hurricane Melissa formed around October the October the
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  27th and 28th, Melissa was hitting Jamaica. 90 people were
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  killed. It was a major problem.
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  It moved slowly, produced lots of rain, flooding and high
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  winds. It became a category 5
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  hurricane. It was a monster storm.
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  Think about that. October 27th, the 28th, we have
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  an about an 11 week cycle. So 11 weeks after that would be
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  November, December, January. So early January and 11 weeks
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  after that would be late March. In late March, we had a repeat
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  in Jamaica, believe it or not, the little complex of
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  thunderstorms, it just increases the chance that there will be a
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  hurricane there. Again, maybe not right at
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  Jamaica. Jamaica's a small island.
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  It's a country, it's a nation, but it's small.
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  It could easily go West or east or north of there.
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  So we'll see. But there will likely be some
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  mid to late August into early September.
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  So right now based on the LRC, we are able to predict with a
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  65% probability that there will be a named storm in that area.
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  And given the factory mid to late August, it would be moving
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  W northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico.
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  Texas would probably be the risk.
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  The whole Gulf Coast has to pay attention when that forms.
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  Most likely at that time of year they move West and northwest and
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  then maybe curve at the end. Texas or Mexico would be the
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  biggest risk for that system. The whole point is the pattern
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  is cycling. We can take what has happened
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  with a hurricane in the fall because it was the same pattern.
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  Now we're in that set up last fall and predict when that
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  hurricane may develop again. A new system would develop that
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  same thing when you get your week by week forecast in the
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  dashboard, if you have the weather 2020 Vision dashboard or
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  you're following us on Substack, we do the same thing for winter
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  storms, spring severe weather outbreaks.
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  So far we've been hitting each one of these severe weather
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  outbreaks on the head, including one that's happening Thursday of
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  this week and it's been in our forecast since January when we
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  put out there. But the point is the same way we
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  predict the tropical systems, we put in the severe weather
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  outbreaks and winter storms. It's just that in the tropics,
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  we have a lot of time to learn. And by the time it gets to June,
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  we've been through three full cycles, maybe 4 cycles or five
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  cycles. And we can then have more
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  confidence in those forecasts. Severe weather outbreaks, maybe
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  there's only one or two cycles to look at.
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  And winter storms are the hardest because we just have the
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  first cycle to look at. But that's, that's my diatribe
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  on trying to explain how we do it.
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  It's pretty fascinating and we're not 100% accurate, but the
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  River Vera above us is close to 100% accurate.
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  Yeah. So when we look at that severe
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  weather outlook that we have kind of for the rest of spring
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  and going into summer, what are you really keeping your eye on
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  right now, Gary? This season?
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  The severe weather risks are going to be significant coming
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  up April 28th to May 7th. I see some risks late May in the
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  first part of June, big risk will come through.
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  The one that produced the Tornadoes in eastern Kansas is
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  going to cycle back through and that'll happen and Illinois has
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  been hit and that's that part of that is going to be early June
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  as well. So we can time them out for you.
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  But right now, it's going to be a lot of rain with these severe
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  weather risks in the next two weeks.
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  Yeah. And then when we look out into
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  summer, I know we have some heat waves coming and some other
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  risks as far as the weather goes that you are really keeping your
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  eye on. What's our update there, Gary?
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  And then is there anything else that has kind of developed as we
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  look at the rest of summer and start preparing for those
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  months? We're always learning new things
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  as every second goes by. But the heat wave that we had in
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  we have had in the forecast for the first first half of August
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  is a real thing. It's the first half of August.
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  The corn crop is usually made or not by then.
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  That'll be a factor as we get closer to harvest and as it
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  could impact the soybeans a little bit more.
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  But that first half of August, it is still right on schedule
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  based on the LRC to have an increased probability of a
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  significant heat wave, hopefully doesn't last longer than five
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  days or seven days. Usually they don't, only in the
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  worst summers, do they? So we'll just have to see how
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  that sets up. But that part of the pattern is
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  also cycling back through in the first half or May or so.
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  So as I said, because of these blocks, it's preventing, instead
• 13:30
  of the heat building up over the United States, it's it's like
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  impacting Alaska and Greenland and prevents us from having
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  heat. So that will not be in play in
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  that second-half of August. So that's coming.
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  You can plan on that. What does that mean for the
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  kettle? What does that mean for your
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  farm? Keep that in mind as we go
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  forward. But but that is the big heat
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  wave is the late July first half of August hottest time of the
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  year anyway, late July, early August, but first half onions is
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  really a target for that. Well, is there anything else
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  that we have not hit on or covered as far as the weather
• 14:05
  goes or anything else that we need to touch on today?
• 14:09
  Gary, you know, I'm having a birthday and so it's time to sit
• 14:13
  back, relax and smell the roses and enjoy life.
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  So I highly recommend everyone get into the now, take a deep
• 14:21
  breath, enjoy just looking around.
• 14:24
  If you have grandkids or kids, just just enjoy the moment your
• 14:29
  dogs sit there with a dog on the deck and and don't worry about
• 14:33
  that next mountain you think you need to climb.
• 14:35
  Business climbing the mountain in real life is probably good,
• 14:38
  but there's always another mountain that's going to be in
• 14:41
  front of you. So enjoy life, relax and I'll
• 14:44
  take care of the weather for you.
• 14:45
  And we'll talk next week about these trends.
• 14:48
  Wonderful. Gary, as always, thank you for
• 14:50
  coming on to another episode. To all of our listeners out
• 14:53
  there, if you are interested in anything that Gary talked about
• 14:56
  today or just want to follow along on all of his crazy
• 14:59
  journeys, make sure you check out the show notes down below.
• 15:02
  I have all of the links for the Weather 2020 dashboard, the
• 15:06
  Global Predictor. I have all of Gary's social
• 15:08
  media links down there below as well.
• 15:11
  Thank you once again for listening to another episode of
• 15:13
  the Cattle USA Daily Podcast. We will see you all next time.