Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 3 Showdown - PGA Championship | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process | 05/16/26
Transcript
- 0:03Speaker 1: All systems going clear. Happy Friday, we are alive. Talking
- 0:37Speaker 1: round three, a little bit of round one, Round two
- 0:39Speaker 1: recap of this year's PGA Championship prim around I make.
- 0:43Speaker 1: I still want to know what you guys are thinking
- 0:44Speaker 1: of the golf course because it is holding up. I
- 0:47Speaker 1: will say I did think it would be a little
- 0:49Speaker 1: bit lower scoring at this point in the week, but
- 0:53Speaker 1: the rain didn't hold up at this time last week,
- 0:56Speaker 1: I'm sorry, not this time last week Monday and Wednesday show,
- 0:59Speaker 1: it looked like there was gonna be a little bit
- 1:00Speaker 1: of rain in the forecast that didn't really come through.
- 1:03Speaker 1: So here we are through Chier rounds four, under leads
- 1:06Speaker 1: the way, Maverick McNeely, Alex smallly, just as everyone thought.
- 1:09Speaker 1: Just as everyone thought, Alex Smalley and Maverickney leading the way. Nonetheless,
- 1:14Speaker 1: some good reports on Smally. I didn't see Maverick remeili
- 1:17Speaker 1: this week, so hopefully you guys have Smally. Hopefully he
- 1:19Speaker 1: can lead the way going forward. But let's touch on
- 1:23Speaker 1: round three. See who did what, how they did it.
- 1:26Speaker 1: I'm gonna pull my screen up and bring you that
- 1:28Speaker 1: leaderboard right now. Chris got her up through old Ben
- 1:32Speaker 1: Kern shot rounds and Rory McRoy shot rounds of sixty
- 1:37Speaker 1: seven or better. I didn't even realize that Rory mcory
- 1:39Speaker 1: had one of those top rowns of the day. He
- 1:42Speaker 1: kind of let's see what he did. Rory McRoy was
- 1:44Speaker 1: one of the few all green guys. Roy mcworry was
- 1:46Speaker 1: all green plus driving distions. But I want to read
- 1:48Speaker 1: through all of these. Is there ra hair? No, let's
- 1:53Speaker 1: look back at this. There's no great hair. Come on.
- 1:56Speaker 1: I think that's just a light maybe though. Damn it, Vinnie,
- 2:00Speaker 1: damn it, Vinnie. I'm sorry. I'll try to do better
- 2:03Speaker 1: next time. Okay, back to you threw me off guard.
- 2:07Speaker 1: He threw me off guard. So let's look at the leaderboard.
- 2:10Speaker 1: Chris got her up through lovevig. Let's see how they
- 2:13Speaker 1: did it. Chris got her up was pure, pure approaching distance.
- 2:17Speaker 1: Ludwig was pure approach. It's good to see the approach
- 2:22Speaker 1: coming through because I was talking about I think it's
- 2:25Speaker 1: gonna come to fruition, but I wasn't quite sure if
- 2:27Speaker 1: we're gonna get that yet. By Sunday, I definitely think
- 2:29Speaker 1: it's gonna be there, and we're seeing it. Got her
- 2:31Speaker 1: up and Ludwig the two best rounds of the tournament
- 2:33Speaker 1: so far were all driven on approach. Obviously you need
- 2:37Speaker 1: to get there set up a certain way, driving accuracy,
- 2:39Speaker 1: driving distance, But these two rounds of the day were
- 2:42Speaker 1: done it. Same thing with Maverick. He's leading the tournament,
- 2:44Speaker 1: and look what he's doing on approach specifically today fifth
- 2:48Speaker 1: so far on approach in the tournament. Today was fourth
- 2:50Speaker 1: on approach. The approach is coming to fruition. That's what
- 2:53Speaker 1: we're gonna be looking at going forward. Then some of
- 2:56Speaker 1: these guys down here, Harris English, he was a golfer
- 3:00Speaker 1: who was an approach guy. Hideki Matsuyama, he was all green,
- 3:03Speaker 1: kind of did everything well. Cameron Young weird weird, weird, weird,
- 3:06Speaker 1: weird profile. He was like accuracy around the green, made
- 3:09Speaker 1: some putts, not really the ideal profile, kind of scraped
- 3:12Speaker 1: that a minus three. I'm not optimistic on Cameron Young
- 3:14Speaker 1: going forward, for what it's worth. And then these guys
- 3:18Speaker 1: down here, Puej and Kern were just pure putters. Seawu
- 3:22Speaker 1: was all green. But you can see the guys at
- 3:24Speaker 1: the top, the guys who are really leading the way
- 3:26Speaker 1: had that approach profile, which I'm really happy to see Yo,
- 3:30Speaker 1: what do you guys think about the pins? I know
- 3:32Speaker 1: a lot of guys are complaining, but I don't think
- 3:35Speaker 1: it should be worth complaining. They have forty nine weeks
- 3:39Speaker 1: to have easy golf courses. We get it once a year,
- 3:42Speaker 1: maybe twice a year, where they have some questionable pain locations.
- 3:46Speaker 1: I mean, we're still under park. We're still in a park.
- 3:48Speaker 1: This isn't an unplayable golf course. If you're not it's
- 3:50Speaker 1: not easy to make putts, but some guys are doing it.
- 3:53Speaker 1: Is what's going to be the winning score? I don't
- 3:55Speaker 1: know why I'm asking you, because I should be answering
- 3:56Speaker 1: that question. So let's see where we're at. I think
- 3:58Speaker 1: the weather's going to do a good job dictating. That
- 4:00Speaker 1: would seem to the next thing I want to talk
- 4:01Speaker 1: about the weather. So far, we have Saturday weather. I'm
- 4:06Speaker 1: gonna get this other screen as you can see it.
- 4:08Speaker 1: Saturday weather. It's looking like it's gonna be another windy
- 4:11Speaker 1: one with maybe a little bit of a gap in
- 4:12Speaker 1: the morning, and then Sunday it's looking like more of
- 4:15Speaker 1: the same. So it's looking like we're gonna have minimal rain,
- 4:18Speaker 1: some semi scoreable conditions in the morning. Then it gets
- 4:21Speaker 1: tough again in the afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised if
- 4:24Speaker 1: seven or eight wins this. Seven or eight seems like
- 4:26Speaker 1: a fair score to win this. And I know that's
- 4:28Speaker 1: a lot different from what we were thinking pre tournament.
- 4:30Speaker 1: I was thinking twelve to fifteen. Pre tournament. I think,
- 4:33Speaker 1: so thirteen, what's this you're thing? Thirteen winning score? Let
- 4:38Speaker 1: me know what you're saying right there? But weather for tomorrow.
- 4:41Speaker 1: Look at that. We're talking showdown right now, guys, we're
- 4:43Speaker 1: talking showdown this six am, seven am to noon gap.
- 4:48Speaker 1: This is when it's gonna be right for scoring, and
- 4:49Speaker 1: then the leaders will go out and it's gonna get
- 4:52Speaker 1: a lot tougher. So for when we're looking at guys,
- 4:55Speaker 1: when you're looking at handicapping golfers later, early guys approach
- 5:01Speaker 1: an accuracy. You need some PM guys accuracy approach. Make
- 5:06Speaker 1: sure they're checking that around the green box. If they're
- 5:08Speaker 1: losing shows around the green, forget them, forget them. So
- 5:12Speaker 1: but really early, I think the round of the tournament
- 5:14Speaker 1: is gonna come from tomorrow. I really do think someone's
- 5:16Speaker 1: gonna go out and shoot maybe what what it got
- 5:20Speaker 1: up shoot today? Sixty five got her up shot sixty five.
- 5:23Speaker 1: Another maybe sixty five. I don't think we're gonna get
- 5:25Speaker 1: sixty four depending on pain locations. The one of the
- 5:28Speaker 1: better rounds of the tournament will come tomorrow morning, in
- 5:32Speaker 1: my opinion. So let's look at the waves split's for today.
- 5:35Speaker 1: Bring the screen back up, and see if we can
- 5:36Speaker 1: make any any rhyme or reason to what we saw today.
- 5:40Speaker 1: So morning and afternoon. The morning actually played harder, but
- 5:43Speaker 1: it was not by much. It was a half a stroke.
- 5:45Speaker 1: Usually you will sometimes see a full stroke. And yesterday
- 5:48Speaker 1: it was also morning played a little easier, so it
- 5:50Speaker 1: was opposite tomorrow. And I just think this just comes
- 5:53Speaker 1: down to, like, who was out there? There was no
- 5:55Speaker 1: weather to make this really the case. I'm not taking
- 5:59Speaker 1: this at all. So yeah, I agree, the pins aren't
- 6:03Speaker 1: going to be as hard as they were yesterday, as
- 6:05Speaker 1: hard as they as they were on Thursday, unless the
- 6:08Speaker 1: PGA of America really was like, let's just do them again.
- 6:10Speaker 1: Let's just get crazier some of those tough pins. I
- 6:13Speaker 1: actually don't know how much justice does these greens are
- 6:18Speaker 1: raised so high. I don't I can't really tell how
- 6:22Speaker 1: much the TV does it justice. So maybe if you're
- 6:24Speaker 1: watching this live, drop a comment if you guys have
- 6:27Speaker 1: noticed that. But especially on some of the par threes,
- 6:30Speaker 1: the greens are so high and those bunkers are so deep.
- 6:33Speaker 1: If you miss a bunker in a bunker to a
- 6:36Speaker 1: right flag on the right, just like, you're just so
- 6:39Speaker 1: cooked on some of those part threes, and honestly, even
- 6:41Speaker 1: some of the part fours too green. These are tough
- 6:44Speaker 1: ass greens complexes, and as you guys can see, there's
- 6:47Speaker 1: a reason the scores are what they are. So we
- 6:50Speaker 1: talked about the wave split for today. It wasn't anything
- 6:52Speaker 1: to write home about. But like I said, tomorrow, I
- 6:55Speaker 1: really am going to be targeting the book for two
- 6:58Speaker 1: lineups at minimum three, three four to throw in a
- 7:01Speaker 1: five to one AM PM tomorrow. It's gonna come through
- 7:04Speaker 1: AM PM. Maybe not a full stroke. I'm gonna guess
- 7:07Speaker 1: a point seven to two point eight stroke difference in
- 7:10Speaker 1: the AM because maybe the better golfer just out in
- 7:12Speaker 1: the PM, so AMPM stroke advantage is what I'm looking
- 7:15Speaker 1: for for tomorrow. In terms of contest selection, I love
- 7:19Speaker 1: this twenty five k long drive single entry Round three.
- 7:22Speaker 1: You better be watching this live. There's only two hundred
- 7:24Speaker 1: seventy seven entries and forty nine of them are full
- 7:27Speaker 1: right now. So contest details. First place pays five k,
- 7:31Speaker 1: you can beat two hundred seventy seven people, and tenth
- 7:33Speaker 1: place pays five hundred. That is exactly the ratio you're
- 7:36Speaker 1: always looking for, at least I am looking for. I
- 7:38Speaker 1: think it's the best way to not win a golf sorry,
- 7:42Speaker 1: not win a contest and still cash fairly. In terms
- 7:45Speaker 1: of how the field is like, you'd be happy to
- 7:47Speaker 1: double your your your two hundred dollars. I know it's
- 7:50Speaker 1: not like you're it's better to enter at just a
- 7:53Speaker 1: double up right there, but you'd be happy to double
- 7:55Speaker 1: your one hundred dollars for two hundred dollars. You place
- 7:58Speaker 1: a little higher five hundred dollars and then you have
- 8:00Speaker 1: a top ten. You're having a nice little payday. So
- 8:02Speaker 1: I really like this over there's not too many people,
- 8:05Speaker 1: it's not overly expensive. I really like this contest. Twenty
- 8:08Speaker 1: five K long Drive will be my contest of choice
- 8:11Speaker 1: for tomorrow, and we will definitely admit when we don't
- 8:14Speaker 1: have the greatest content, the greatest results. If we had
- 8:18Speaker 1: the greatest results every single day, we would not share
- 8:21Speaker 1: it with the world, and we keep it all for ourselves.
- 8:23Speaker 1: The stone wasn't the best today, The projections weren't the
- 8:27Speaker 1: best today. My slave plan wasn't the best today. Does
- 8:31Speaker 1: that mean it's gonna be good tomorrow? Maybe it might
- 8:33Speaker 1: just be. It might just be. So you're gonna go
- 8:36Speaker 1: use that code boots. You see it at the top
- 8:38Speaker 1: of the screen. You're gonna hit right here, ship a Nation.
- 8:42Speaker 1: You're gonna hit join the Nation. And if you just
- 8:45Speaker 1: want the golf content, you want the all of it,
- 8:49Speaker 1: bang right here. PGA plus Optimizer monthly annually. Use code Boots.
- 8:55Speaker 1: That first week is free, and then you get all
- 8:58Speaker 1: the content for ten percent off for life. Use code Boots.
- 9:02Speaker 1: Help me get out there, because we got some boots
- 9:04Speaker 1: coming up. We got the US Open, we got the
- 9:06Speaker 1: Open Championship, and I don't want to say too much,
- 9:09Speaker 1: but I want to go to the UK. I want
- 9:11Speaker 1: to go to the UK and give you guys that content.
- 9:13Speaker 1: So please use that code boots so I can't plane.
- 9:17Speaker 1: Tickets are not cheap right now, guys, Please use that
- 9:19Speaker 1: code boots so I can get out there. But let's
- 9:21Speaker 1: get into the players. Talk about some of the stats.
- 9:25Speaker 1: See what we are looking for. So we'll look at
- 9:28Speaker 1: the full tournament stats. I'm going to be leaning on accuracy, sorry,
- 9:32Speaker 1: accuracy and approach for the PM wave, sorry for the
- 9:36Speaker 1: early wave, and then the PM wave touch on some
- 9:38Speaker 1: around the greens. So we have this cut around. It's
- 9:41Speaker 1: gonna be a minus four cut, right? Is that locked in?
- 9:44Speaker 1: We have T sixty eight right now? What have we
- 9:45Speaker 1: got here? I thought it was sorry, plus four cut.
- 9:47Speaker 1: I thought the cut was locked in at plus four.
- 9:50Speaker 1: We're getting nothing. We're getting nothing. I don't want to
- 9:51Speaker 1: say the wrong thing. See what are we doing here? Guys?
- 9:55Speaker 1: What are we doing here? PGA Championship. It should be
- 9:58Speaker 1: a plus four cut?
- 10:00Speaker 2: Actually, just go to data golf.
- 10:02Speaker 1: Yeah, why do I doubt myself? Plus four cut one?
- 10:06Speaker 1: So golfers at plus four right here? Plus four. We're
- 10:12Speaker 1: looking for accuracy. We're looking for approach plus four and above.
- 10:16Speaker 1: To go out there early in the morning and shoot around.
- 10:20Speaker 1: It's obviously not gonna be pretty down here, but this
- 10:22Speaker 1: is what we have to work with. I don't mind
- 10:25Speaker 1: this from Daniel Berger. Daniel Berger is literally doing nothing poorly,
- 10:29Speaker 1: nothing poorly about even around off the tee, barely gaining
- 10:34Speaker 1: an approach, having a nice around the green, which is
- 10:36Speaker 1: great for what we're looking for. And he's even putting.
- 10:39Speaker 1: I think Daniel Berger is an absolutely tremendous play tomorrow.
- 10:42Speaker 1: What is his price? What is Danielberger's price? Because I
- 10:46Speaker 1: love that already for the early morning wave? Why not
- 10:49Speaker 1: get out there? Six k Burger. Come on, guys, I
- 10:52Speaker 1: love that a lot. What else were looking for? Accuracy? Approach?
- 11:00Speaker 1: So Chris Kirks putter wears me a little bit. He's
- 11:02Speaker 1: not popping with the driver in terms of accuracy right
- 11:05Speaker 1: now or else? Be an a right there, but we
- 11:07Speaker 1: know Chris Kirk is generally a really accurate driver for
- 11:10Speaker 1: the golf ball. The approach play, Oh sorry, yeah, you know.
- 11:13Speaker 1: The approach play is great. I thought I read the
- 11:14Speaker 1: wrong thing. The approach play is great from Chris Kirk,
- 11:17Speaker 1: and that's what we were looking for in the morning wave.
- 11:19Speaker 1: He's currently three over, he's going to go out really early.
- 11:22Speaker 1: Love that from Chris Kirk. What else are we looking
- 11:24Speaker 1: at right here? Who's this losing a stroke off the tea?
- 11:27Speaker 1: Are they accuracy? Guy? Are they just being short? Moment
- 11:30Speaker 1: of truth because this could be a hammer and play.
- 11:33Speaker 1: Brian Harmon losing strokes out the t. That just means
- 11:36Speaker 1: he's hitting it short. We know Brian Harmon is generally
- 11:39Speaker 1: very accurate off the tea. He can have a nice
- 11:41Speaker 1: little round with the long irons and gaining out approach,
- 11:43Speaker 1: hitting them really well. Love that, and he's putting really well.
- 11:45Speaker 1: So Brian Harmon and Chris Kirk. I like those guys
- 11:50Speaker 1: a lot. Keith Mitchell. Keith Mitchell ear early wave going
- 11:54Speaker 1: out plus two, gaining off the tea, gaining out approach.
- 11:57Speaker 1: Not the most accurate golfer in the world, but gaining
- 11:59Speaker 1: a putting greens. I don't need Keith Mitchell to hit
- 12:02Speaker 1: every single fairway when he hits them. He can attack
- 12:04Speaker 1: with some shorter irons than Harmon and Kirk and hopefully
- 12:07Speaker 1: have a new ground. We don't want Keith Mitchell when
- 12:08Speaker 1: he's leaving the golf tournament. We want him right now,
- 12:11Speaker 1: when he's six shocks back, kind of on the outside
- 12:14Speaker 1: looking in. That's when you want Keith Mitchell for sure.
- 12:17Speaker 1: Tom Hogy love that. Only losing off the t because
- 12:20Speaker 1: he's short, gaining where we need him to gain on approach.
- 12:23Speaker 1: That is Tom Hogy's forte. That is what he does best.
- 12:27Speaker 1: So don't mind this from Matt fitz Sorry, Alex Fitz.
- 12:30Speaker 1: Matt fitz is right here. They're right next to each other.
- 12:33Speaker 1: That's why I said that they're both hitting fairways. I
- 12:35Speaker 1: don't mind both of them. I don't mind both of them.
- 12:36Speaker 1: And Matt Fitzpatrick is just simply putting poorly. We know
- 12:40Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick is a great putter. He's at plus two.
- 12:42Speaker 1: We have like a four putt today, I believe, So
- 12:44Speaker 1: I think Matt fitz is a great play in that
- 12:46Speaker 1: nine k range. But let's go to the top. Let's
- 12:48Speaker 1: go to the top because we're gonna be looking for approach,
- 12:50Speaker 1: but we need some around the green if we want
- 12:53Speaker 1: any of these guys, I will say right now, I'm
- 12:55Speaker 1: gonna be doing a majority of my lineups four to two,
- 12:59Speaker 1: maybe even throw some five ones in there. But if
- 13:01Speaker 1: you need some guys from the top, let's find some
- 13:02Speaker 1: guys from the top. I'm not talking about price right now.
- 13:05Speaker 1: I'm just simply talking about leaderboard. Where they are on
- 13:07Speaker 1: a leaderboard. So I need you to have something around
- 13:09Speaker 1: the green, but I don't need you to be gaining
- 13:11Speaker 1: two strokes through two rounds around the green. Is that
- 13:14Speaker 1: even aggregate. What a cumulative right here? So yeah, I
- 13:18Speaker 1: don't need you to be gaining all these strokes around
- 13:20Speaker 1: the green. I need you to be just showing good
- 13:21Speaker 1: signs because if you're gaining too many strokes around the green,
- 13:24Speaker 1: that means you're relying on it too much and it's
- 13:26Speaker 1: just gonna go back in the wrong direction. So I
- 13:29Speaker 1: need you to be showing me some good things around
- 13:31Speaker 1: the green. Right here, Chris got up. This is amazing stuff.
- 13:34Speaker 1: He's gaining over nearly five strokes ball striking, and he's
- 13:38Speaker 1: putting great, and he's chipping fine. He's a beautiful man
- 13:42Speaker 1: and a beautiful golfer. Why would you not Christ want
- 13:44Speaker 1: Chris got up again tomorrow? I don't care if he's
- 13:46Speaker 1: at the top. Who is this right here? Scotty Scheffler
- 13:48Speaker 1: Ever heard of him? I like this profile, lookout field
- 13:52Speaker 1: and then SEAWU like see Wu is doing everything so perfectly.
- 13:56Speaker 1: We have him outright this week around fifty to one,
- 13:59Speaker 1: sixty to one, and like this, This gets me excited.
- 14:03Speaker 1: He's getting a stroke and a half off the tee,
- 14:05Speaker 1: a stroke and a half approach, a stroke and a
- 14:07Speaker 1: half around the green, and two on the putting greens,
- 14:10Speaker 1: this is beautiful or see who camp? So that's what
- 14:13Speaker 1: I'm looking at the top. One more golfer that I
- 14:16Speaker 1: don't mind going to, not Andrew Putnam, not Andrew Puttnam
- 14:22Speaker 1: is I don't mind Daniel Hillier. But let's find one
- 14:27Speaker 1: more from like even or higher. I don't want to
- 14:29Speaker 1: find I want to find someone that's sellid. Patrick cantlay,
- 14:32Speaker 1: Patrick can't lay. This is when you want Patrick cantlay too.
- 14:37Speaker 1: You don't let like who would I say, like Keith Mitchell.
- 14:41Speaker 1: You don't want Patrick can't lay when he's in the lead.
- 14:43Speaker 1: You want him when he's coming from behind. T sixteen
- 14:46Speaker 1: posts that nine non competitive back door T three in
- 14:50Speaker 1: a major, just like he does so well. That is
- 14:53Speaker 1: Patrick can't Lay's forte and where you can take advantage
- 14:56Speaker 1: of it is a showdown situation. Let's do that with
- 14:58Speaker 1: Patrick can't lay. You might have saw before. But the
- 15:00Speaker 1: one golfer that I am on for the day for
- 15:04Speaker 1: tomorrow is Aaron Rye. Ol Aaron Ryle. Let's look at
- 15:09Speaker 1: the stat line for Aaron Rye currently in a tie
- 15:11Speaker 1: for sixteenth doing what we want well off the tee.
- 15:14Speaker 1: He's very accurate on approach very accurate. Not the greatest
- 15:18Speaker 1: round the green, but he's putting well, and Aaron Rye,
- 15:20Speaker 1: I don't want him missing greens. I wouldn't be playing
- 15:22Speaker 1: him if his approach number was bad. So Aaron Raie
- 15:24Speaker 1: getting two strokes on approach, hitting a ton of fairways
- 15:27Speaker 1: is someone I'm surely, surely, surely into. Aaron Raie is
- 15:31Speaker 1: the one golfer that I am on for tomorrow. Any
- 15:35Speaker 1: questions in order to find me, as always, Song of
- 15:37Speaker 1: the Day before we get out of here, when everything
- 15:40Speaker 1: means nothing, by fit for a king. If you've heard
- 15:42Speaker 1: of it, let me know. If you haven't heard of it,
- 15:44Speaker 1: listen to it and then let me know. Hope you
- 15:46Speaker 1: guys enjoy. I'll catch you guys tomorrow for round four showdown,
- 15:50Speaker 1: peace out.
- 15:51Speaker 2: Let me know what we need.
- 16:07Speaker 1: Hans and bass and still and the Mist.
- 16:20Speaker 2: And the Mist
- 16:23Speaker 1: And