Latest / AG Bull / Cary Artac | Corn, Amazon, Bitcoin | Wicked Charts

Transcript

Cary Artac | Corn, Amazon, Bitcoin | Wicked Charts · AG Bull

• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome back everyone.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's Amgristaffi Agbo Media, AgBull Trading the AgBull Podcast, AgBull, everything.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Go follow us at AgBull Media.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I am hiding in my basement, and I think our next guest is in an uh disclosed location.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: We both look like we're in our parents' basement.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: But uh that is a real cactus behind him.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: I'll go full screen on him.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Look at this beautiful sunrise, my friend.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we're gonna talk charts with the one and only to carry our tech.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: And uh today we're gonna talk corn.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna talk, did you say Facebook?
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: No, corn, Amazon, and uh perhaps a little bit of Bitcoin at the tail end.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Corn, Amazon.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: I must be thinking about playing on Facebook and Bitcoin.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: Boy, have they all been flying around.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: Let's bring in the star to show the charts.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: There you go.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'll just jump right into it, eh?
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do it.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna start with I'll start with Amazon.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: You know, just you know, we put this out actually at wickedstocks.com uh every week.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: And this is a weekly chart.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna be showing the weekly charts throughout, without exception.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: No daily charts, no monthly, all weekly.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: This goes back three or four years.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: And this really shows a ceiling of resistance in Amazon.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: We've topped out at the high settlement price that was put out back in January of 237.68 on the weekly chart and the actual high itself of 242.52.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: We consider this a rough five-point range, sellable range, an area where this market can grow tired as it already has, starting with this uh most recent push in July and especially in September.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: And we have fallen away.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, the point I'm making with this chart is if we can close above 242.52, even above 237.68 would be constructive, but certainly above that high of 242.52, we've got what I would consider to be a two to three month buy signal to the even more significant.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: This is about almost a three-year channel top.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: In January, it will be at 266.26 and climbing, fully capable of containing quarterly buying pressures, possibly into later 26.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: But there's no point in even mentioning 266 unless we close above 242.52.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Now, when we look at the downside, what is support?
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: This is sellable resistance in the 237-242 area, but you've got buyable support, if you will, at 215.29, which we've been testing this week quite a bit.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: We've even slipped below it.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: This pretty classic channel bottom is an aggressive down pivot actually into later year until we close below it.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Then you can anticipate upward continuation.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: So this is bottom picking territory, what I would call near to midterm.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, 21529, able to contain October selling pressures into November.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: From here, we can round back up into this 237.68 to 242.52 area.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: This is kind of a two-sided framework through the rest of the year above 215.29.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: But if we do close this week below 215.29, we enter a meaningful sell signal that I'm expecting to play out through the rest of the year.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: I give this two to three months.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: This could be a higher volatility, three to five weeks, but probably more like by the end of the year, we fall to this 191.36 area.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: 191.36 is a 5.8 downside Fibonacci from that significant April low against the more recent September high.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: And you also have the high of the low, which I like to use as downside support around 192.65.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: So 191.36 would be the objective.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: What I'm pointing out here at 158.18 is over time there's the very real possibility.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: You can see there's plenty of precedent for that.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Three to five months, this was.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Might we see that again?
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: I don't expect 158.18 unless we actually close below 191.36.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: But I tell our followers, our subscribers, that if we do close below 215.29 and say you're an options trader, you might reach for 190 strike out of the money puts that don't expire for at least six months on this two to three month play.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: And you might even reach for 160 or 155 strike out of the money puts that don't expire for a solid year out on what could be a six-month sell-off that becomes clarified with a settlement below 191.36.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Amazon is an important component.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: S P 500 index, 4%, NASDAQ 100 index, 7%.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: So if it has a sell signal below 215.29, that will likely, I think, add some weight, certainly, to those primary indexes.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, on to now, this is uh, by the way, wickedstocks.com.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: I'll just put that out there, is where you can find this analysis.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna shift now to the commodity side of our world, which is our tech advisory.com, which I've been doing for almost 30 years now.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: And this is a weekly chart of the corn futures market, weekly continuation chart.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: So it is the stringing together of previous high-volume contracts.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: It is the way you analyze any futures market, really.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: And in this image, and I'm gonna zoom in here in a moment, but you can see a one-year descending channel top at 428 and a quarter that's dropping about two and a half cents a week.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: I consider this our ceiling through the rest of the year.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: A sellable resistance area that once tested, the market then inclined to fall away, possibly to the 385 low from last year.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: This was an August 24 low.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: We came very close to testing it back in August at 392 even.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: The December contract low at that time was around 390 and a quarter.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: So we came very close to testing this area.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: We can test this over the next few months.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: But if we do close above 428 and a quarter, that is our buy signal through the rest of the year, a good low for the year, and then three to five months upward continuation to 481 even.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: 481 even, I consider it kind of the granddaddy right now of our trend identifier.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, for the last three years, we've been in this lower low, lower high framework, the bear trend remains intact below 481 even.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: And the only point I'm going to make here is if we can get up and over this significant line study in the months ahead, 26 shapes up as a bullish year.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: But until then, we are still locked in a long-term bear market below 481 even.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: But once again, if we close above 428 and a quarter, dropping weekly in the coming weeks, we at least have a buy signal, a three to five month rally to 481 even.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now I'm going to zoom in this area.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: You'll see the 428 and a quarter descending channel top here.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: And inside, we have this, you know, respectable six, seven-week descending channel bottom at 406 even.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: I consider this near-term support.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: And as long as we're above 406 even, this market can rally into the 428 and a quarter region, both of which are dropping on a week by week basis.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: But I also bring up 406 even for our down pivot into November.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: If we were over the coming weeks to close below 406 even, I do see this 385 even as a likely, this could be within three to five weeks, the better part of two months, where we would expect this by the end of the year with a settlement below 406 even until then as we move into the month of November.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: I consider the corn futures market presently represented by DS25 as a two-sided framework, really, buying 406, selling 428 and a quarter.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: The likely outcome is that we settle below 406 because of the longer term nature of 428 and a quarter.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: And if we do, once again, three to five weeks, 385 even, where we could actually double bottom into spring of next year.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, Tommy, I thought I'd throw out a little Bitcoin here.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: This is a weekly chart of Bitcoin going back roughly almost six years.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: In 26 January, it'll be a six-year chart.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I could say a lot about this chart, but really the point I'm making here is once again, we have a rising channel bottom, very similar to the Amazon chart I started with that goes back, you know, to August and July.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: This is three, four-month structure, 108.565.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: Solid support, able to contain selling into November, and from here we can round up.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, I consider you know Bitcoin through the rest of the year to actually be a stable to bullish framework through the rest of the year.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: If we can close above this wave count, which is the the 22 high minus the 21 high minus the 22 low, we flip that up.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's been holding the buying pressures now all year long.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: So above 108,565, 122,433 is likely again by the end of November.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: And if we can close above it, we're off to the races.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: I would expect the 140s within a matter of two to three months.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: But I really wanted to bring this chart up because of the sell signal possibility that if we were to close below 108,565, I do see a real route to the downside.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: I imagine this would be consistent also with a sell signal in the stock market, the SP 500, the Nasdaq 100.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: And if we close below 108,565 this week, I see the mid to upper 80s as a likely two to three month target.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: This former five-year channel top at 85,804, and this more recently formed one-year channel bottom at 87,794, a two to three month target if we close below 108,565 this week.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: Until then, if you're long Bitcoin, you stay long.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, if your time horizon is the next three to five months, you stay long above 108,565.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: And that is all I've got, Tommy.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: I love it.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: Full screen on you, my friend.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: Tell people how to get a hold of you.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, I have this website.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: Does that look correct for the right?
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's the uh future side, the commodity futures, uh stock futures as well.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: And then we also do you know a lot of stock analysis, two stock picks a week, daily spy, daily queue, etc., at wickedstocks.com.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: And you have a payfor service there and the free YouTube channel, correct?
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, yes.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: They can go to YouTube and search Wicked Stocks and they'll find our daily NVIDIA, our daily Tesla.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: They'll also see our weekly Bitcoin that you just saw a chart of.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we also do the Mag 7 on a weekly basis, which includes that Amazon chart.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a lot of really good free stuff on our YouTube channel.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: And then obviously we encourage people to go to wickedstocks.com and take advantage of a five-day free trial that provides them analysis in the SPY, the Q, Apple, and two individual stock picks every week.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: Sounds good, my friend.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: Well, folks, if you're watching, if you're listening, if you love America, give us a call 1-855-1855-7375.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: I'll send you a free flag and I'll send Carrie one too.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_01: Every week he's in a different spot and he kind of cracks me up.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, we got to watch the sunrise with you, my friend.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: There you go.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: A okay.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: I can't wait again to do this next week, all right?
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, fantastic.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: I look forward to it.