Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Kushner and Witkoff meet Zelensky in renewed bid to break Ukraine-Russia deadlock

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Kushner and Witkoff meet Zelensky in renewed bid to break Ukraine-Russia deadlock · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: The United States has launched a new diplomatic push to
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  Speaker 1: negotiate an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. And as
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  Speaker 1: we've come to expect from the Trump administration, this latest
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  Speaker 1: mediation effort was not spearheaded by the State Department or
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  Speaker 1: career diplomats, but rather by the U.S. President's son-in-law, Jared Kushner,
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  Speaker 1: alongside Trump's close friend and real estate associate, Steve Witkoff.
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  Speaker 1: The so-called Special Envoys for Peace started out in Moscow
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  Speaker 1: on Saturday with a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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  Speaker 1: The closed-door discussion lasted around three hours. The Kremlin later
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  Speaker 1: said that it would consider resuming talks with Ukraine without
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  Speaker 1: any further commitment. The diplomatic duo then made their way
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  Speaker 1: to Kiev to meet with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. For weeks,
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  Speaker 1: Kiev has been under continuous Russian attack from jet-powered drones,
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  Speaker 1: but Putin and Zelensky agreed to a temporary ceasefire on
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  Speaker 1: each other's capitals while the talks with Witkow and Kushner
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  Speaker 1: took place. And it's important to note here, Witkow and
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  Speaker 1: Kushner have received numerous invitations to visit Kyiv, but this
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  Speaker 1: was their first official visit to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale
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  Speaker 1: invasion began. Now, contrast that to the numerous times that
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  Speaker 1: both men have traveled to Moscow during the conflict. For
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  Speaker 1: President Zelensky, the symbolism of the trip was an important
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  Speaker 1: first step.
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  Speaker 2: We thank the United States for its support and President
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump for allowing the American group to be here
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  Speaker 2: in Ukraine today. After the meetings in the Russian Federation,
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  Speaker 2: it was very important for us to have President Trump's
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  Speaker 2: chief negotiators in Ukraine today.
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  Speaker 1: Important for Ukraine, but the talks delivered no breakthrough towards
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  Speaker 1: ending the more than four-and-a-half-year war. Trump's peace envoys described
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  Speaker 1: the discussions in Moscow and Kyiv as, quote, very meaningful.
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  Speaker 1: They also acknowledged the challenges in reaching a deal while
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  Speaker 1: both Ukraine and Russia remain deadlocked over their demands.
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  Speaker 3: It's going to take both sides to make some compromises
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  Speaker 3: and narrow the issues between them.
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  Speaker 4: And we think we have the ingredients to get to
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  Speaker 4: that place.
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  Speaker 3: But with President Putin, we went through a lot of
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  Speaker 3: the ideas that hadn't worked to date. And we really
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  Speaker 3: tried to think about, you know, what would the elements
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  Speaker 3: be that are needed for this durable peace that we've
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  Speaker 3: spoken about? And what are the things that Russia can
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  Speaker 3: gain from it? What are the things that Ukraine can
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  Speaker 3: gain from it? And what are the things that the
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  Speaker 3: world can gain from it?
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  Speaker 1: All right, let's pick up on what we've said there.
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  Speaker 1: I want to bring in now Tyson Barker. He has
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  Speaker 1: a wealth of foreign policy experience at the U.S. State Department,
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  Speaker 1: most recently as deputy special representative for Ukraine's economic recovery.
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  Speaker 1: He's currently a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Tyson,
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  Speaker 1: it's good to see you again. What do you make
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  Speaker 1: of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff's visit to Kiev and Moscow?
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  Speaker 4: Well, let's say it's good that the United States is
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  Speaker 4: reengaging in this process. We have seen a U.S. distracted
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  Speaker 4: by the war in Iran for the past six months.
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  Speaker 4: There has been a lack of engagement, and frankly, that
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  Speaker 4: has left this process a little unmoored. There was a
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  Speaker 4: big push before the war in Iran by Kushner and
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  Speaker 4: Whitcock to develop what could be the contours of a
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  Speaker 4: potential ceasefire and peace agreement, and the Europeans were also
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  Speaker 4: engaging in this process. in good faith and in earnestness.
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  Speaker 4: The truth is that there was a big learning curve
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  Speaker 4: during that process that Kushner and Witkoff had to learn
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  Speaker 4: a ton about the red lines, not just for Moscow,
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  Speaker 4: but also for Kiev and for the Europeans and for Congress,
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  Speaker 4: for that matter. And a lot of that has, let's say,
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  Speaker 4: atrophied as the situation has changed. But if they're going
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  Speaker 4: to be consistent actors, stakeholders, this can be nothing but
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  Speaker 4: a good thing.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, the president, President Trump, he has sent Kushner
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  Speaker 1: and Witkoff to deal with the biggest foreign policy challenges
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  Speaker 1: of his administration. As you said, Iran, there's the war
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  Speaker 1: in Gaza, now Russia and Ukraine. How effective? I mean,
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  Speaker 1: they've had a learning curve to deal with, yes. But
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  Speaker 1: how effective is their special envoy diplomacy?
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  Speaker 4: Well, I mean, we have to admit that this is
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  Speaker 4: very unconventional, but it is consistent with the Trump administration's
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  Speaker 4: approach to engagement with the world. He likes to have
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  Speaker 4: people that he trusts implicitly, and there's nobody that's closer than,
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  Speaker 4: you know, real estate billionaires, one of whom is his son-in-law.
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  Speaker 4: Those are people who can negotiate, have a wide, let's say,
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  Speaker 4: negotiation mandate. That can be a good thing. I think
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  Speaker 4: that the question about the conflict in Gaza is mixed
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  Speaker 4: at best, but they would argue that it has the
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  Speaker 4: outlines of potential success and stability, having returned the hostages
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  Speaker 4: and the bodies of those killed, and having the violence
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  Speaker 4: not be as severe as it had been prior to
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  Speaker 4: the agreement. But obviously what has happened in Iran has
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  Speaker 4: been even less successful. It's not even a mixed agreement.
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  Speaker 4: This is still an ongoing war that has not ended
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  Speaker 4: in the timeframe that they had allotted themselves and set
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  Speaker 4: several expectations of an end to this conflict multiple times.
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  Speaker 4: And in Ukraine itself, President Trump, when he came to office,
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  Speaker 4: said that he would end this conflict on day one.
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  Speaker 4: by virtue of his personal relationship with President Putin. That
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  Speaker 4: has not been the case. But like any kind of
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  Speaker 4: diplomatic negotiations, to quote Jared Kushner, where there are complex
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  Speaker 4: problems involved, it requires a consistent, steady hand. And that
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  Speaker 4: has not been the case in the Ukraine conflict since
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  Speaker 4: its beginning, at least in terms of the Trump administration's
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  Speaker 4: return to office.
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  Speaker 1: Do you get the feeling, though, that Jared Kushner is
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  Speaker 1: trying to conduct diplomacy the way he would a real
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  Speaker 1: estate deal, and when he says that Russia should also
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  Speaker 1: gain from any prospective peace deal, what do you think
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  Speaker 1: he has in mind? Would the U.S. support territorial concessions
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  Speaker 1: to Moscow?
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  Speaker 4: I think that these are areas where the benefit of
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  Speaker 4: decades of experience in the machinery of diplomacy at the
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  Speaker 4: State Department would be helpful. It's clear that Jared Kushner
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  Speaker 4: and Steve Witkoff are untethered from that process. They would
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  Speaker 4: consider themselves freed from those constraints. But, you know, at
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  Speaker 4: least in terms of, you know, what is going to
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  Speaker 4: be possible, they're going to be mugged by the reality
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  Speaker 4: of the Ukrainians themselves, because ultimately, whatever peace deal is
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  Speaker 4: negotiated will need to be voted on and ratified by
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  Speaker 4: the Ukrainian people who have sacrificed a great deal in
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  Speaker 4: this conflict at the hands of the aggressor, Russia, and
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  Speaker 4: of course, by the Europeans, who also have major stake
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  Speaker 4: in this conflict. the incentives for peace on all sides
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  Speaker 4: are going to be provided by the Europeans. That's for
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  Speaker 4: the Ukrainian succession. That's, of course, continued military support, both
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  Speaker 4: in war and in peacetime. That's access to markets and
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  Speaker 4: lifting of sanctions, which is important for the Russians because
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  Speaker 4: their largest market is Europe. And of course, that's the
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  Speaker 4: use of the Russian sovereign assets, which are held in
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  Speaker 4: frozen in Belgium. So ultimately, they're the ones with a
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  Speaker 4: lot of the incentives at their disposal, and they're going
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  Speaker 4: to have a voice in this in whatever kind of
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  Speaker 4: deal emerges ultimately as well.
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  Speaker 1: I want to stick with this notion of diplomacy for
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  Speaker 1: a moment. As you say, U.S. State Department protocols are
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  Speaker 1: being ignored somewhat in these negotiations. And I'm also wondering,
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  Speaker 1: where is U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in all
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  Speaker 1: of this? I mean, do we even know his level
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  Speaker 1: of involvement?
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  Speaker 4: Well, it seems that he has not invested a lot
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  Speaker 4: of political capital in this particular conflict. And I would
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  Speaker 4: even say that in the Middle East, he seems also
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  Speaker 4: less engaged. There have been sporadic moments of engagement by
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  Speaker 4: Secretary Rubio. One can think about the JETA summit last
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  Speaker 4: year between Russia and the United States. But ultimately, I
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  Speaker 4: think he is kind of choosing where to spend his
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  Speaker 4: political capital globally. It tends to be a little more
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  Speaker 4: focused in, let's say, the Western Hemisphere, an area that
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  Speaker 4: he has a great deal of interest and prioritization. Let's
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  Speaker 4: be frank, in the eyes of the White House, it
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  Speaker 4: has turned out to be quite successful. If you look
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  Speaker 4: at how they assess the situation in Venezuela and what
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  Speaker 4: they're thinking about possible next steps in Cuba. And in
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  Speaker 4: that sense, he is very comfortable to have a plurilateral
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  Speaker 4: system of diplomacy that involves everything from the vice president
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  Speaker 4: to the president's son-in-law.
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  Speaker 1: You mentioned Europe in this power equation with Ukraine and Russia.
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  Speaker 1: I know that the Trump administration is pushing for trilateral talks, Ukraine, Russia,
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  Speaker 1: and the U.S. Where does this leave Europe?
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  Speaker 4: So Kyiv and President Zelensky briefed the European national security
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  Speaker 4: advisors after the talks with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
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  Speaker 4: And of course, you know, Jared Kushner also mentioned the
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  Speaker 4: involvement of the Europeans. Because the Europeans are going to
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  Speaker 4: be expected to provide the lubricant of any kind of
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  Speaker 4: ceasefire and peace deal, they're going to have to have
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  Speaker 4: a say whether all the other sides like it or not.
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  Speaker 4: I don't think they're going to have a peace deal
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  Speaker 4: jammed on them over the heads of the Ukrainians and
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  Speaker 4: the Europeans. But ultimately, you know, there is something to
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  Speaker 4: be said for the fact that Russia and Europe are
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  Speaker 4: pretty much at loggerheads and polar opposites as far as
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  Speaker 4: how they see this conflict. And going into the winter,
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  Speaker 4: and this is going to be quite important for European capitals,
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  Speaker 4: is to think about the kind of escalatory pressure that
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  Speaker 4: everybody's expecting to see, because Ukraine remains essentially in some
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  Speaker 4: civilian centers defenseless as far as air defense and is
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  Speaker 4: coming into a cold season where attacks on energy infrastructure
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  Speaker 4: are highly expected. And President Zelensky is signaling that he
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  Speaker 4: is going to return them in kind in Russian territory.
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  Speaker 4: one of the pieces of leverage that Moscow is going
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  Speaker 4: to try to use is escalated hybrid warfare in Europe
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  Speaker 4: to try to get their resolve to waver. So Europe
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  Speaker 4: is going to have to engage, and that means not
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  Speaker 4: just reacting necessarily to the proposals at hand, but also
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  Speaker 4: providing their own ideas. And it's interesting to note, if
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  Speaker 4: there's one kernel of interesting information to come from this new,
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  Speaker 4: very tentative re-engagement by Washington. It's the use of this term,
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  Speaker 4: new ideas were put on the table in Moscow. Now,
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  Speaker 4: that can mean a lot of things. That can be
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  Speaker 4: quite ominous. But ultimately, that is a change in, let's say,
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  Speaker 4: the diplomatic signaling coming out of capitals that should be watched.
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  Speaker 1: Tyson, I want to ask you, before we run out
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  Speaker 1: of time, I want to tap into your insider knowledge
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  Speaker 1: about Ukraine. I'm sure you saw the results from the
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  Speaker 1: election in the German state of Sachsen-Anhalt last night with
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  Speaker 1: the AFD, the far-right AFD, coming in as the strongest party.
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  Speaker 1: There's a lot of talk about the impact that's going
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  Speaker 1: to have on the federal government here in Berlin. We
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  Speaker 1: know that the federal government is in favor of supporting Ukraine.
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  Speaker 1: The AFD is not.
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  Speaker 3: It's pro-Russian.
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  Speaker 1: Are they worried in Kiev tonight due to what they
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  Speaker 1: saw happen in one German state last night?
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  Speaker 4: You know, I think that the broad, let's say, democratic
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  Speaker 4: center in Germany and Europe continues to hold. The support
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  Speaker 4: is very robust. Any kind of coalition that emerges in
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  Speaker 4: Germany or anywhere else is going to be centered around
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  Speaker 4: a pro-Ukrainian majority that happens in all major capitals at
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  Speaker 4: this point. I think that they feel very comfortable still
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  Speaker 4: with German support. That said, you know, Ukraine is not
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  Speaker 4: as present in the headlines as it was in the past,
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  Speaker 4: and that is a deep concern. It's not necessarily that
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  Speaker 4: a country like Germany will turn from pro-Ukrainian to skeptical
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  Speaker 4: or hostile to Ukraine or pro-Russian, but it's the creeping
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  Speaker 4: indifference to the conflict because it continues to move on.
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  Speaker 4: And one thing also to note, they are watching these
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  Speaker 4: trends in Germany. It's not just the AFD. There's also
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  Speaker 4: Die Linke, which also has very strong pro-Russian roots and
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  Speaker 4: draws on that. And the Bundestag, which also has those
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  Speaker 4: kind of pro-Russian roots. And there are other elections to
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  Speaker 4: be coming up. So they will be watching. But I
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  Speaker 4: think that they do have confidence in the Grand Coalition,
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  Speaker 4: the Social Democrats, and Matt's party, the Christian Democrats, to
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  Speaker 4: continue to support Ukraine through this tough winter.
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  Speaker 1: Tyson Barker, as always, Tyson, good to talk with you.
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  Speaker 1: We appreciate your insights tonight.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you.
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  Speaker 4: Thank you.