Latest / The Fourcast / Iran strikes back? What Israel and the US could do next

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Iran strikes back? What Israel and the US could do next · The Fourcast

0:00
The fear, the concern would always be that this whole crisis
0:04
would push them further towards accelerating the drive towards
0:07
getting a nuclear bomb because that they'll see that's the only
0:10
thing capable of of ensuring deterrence and and perhaps the
0:13
regime's survival. One of the things we've learned
0:16
over the years is that any kind of military intervention, it has
0:20
unintended consequences and we just don't know what those are
0:23
going to be. There are all sorts of doomsday
0:25
scenarios as well-being speculated about, around the
0:28
possibility of dirty bombs, asymmetric warfare, Iran, you
0:33
know, activating terrorism cells.
0:35
What? What's the calculation there?
0:41
Hello, and welcome to the forecast.
0:43
Somewhere between total obliteration and significant
0:46
damage. That's what the American
0:48
administration is saying it has done to Iran after its weekend
0:52
air strikes on its nuclear facilities.
0:55
But it may be a bigger phrase than that in terms of the
0:59
significance for the region and the wider world for this special
1:02
forecast. This morning, I'm in Washington,
1:05
DC. Our international editor,
1:07
Lindsay Hilson, joins us from London, and our correspondent
1:10
Sakunda Kamani joins us from Jerusalem.
1:14
Lindsay, the Iranian foreign minister is going to Russia
1:17
Today, and there have been air strikes by Israel on Iran.
1:23
I mean, where does it look like this is going today?
1:26
Well, at the moment, what the Iranian foreign minister is
1:30
doing is he's trying to get as much diplomatic support as
1:32
possible. And the Russians have been a
1:34
little bit equivocal, really, in their support for Iran.
1:37
But today, Putin seemed to be more condemnatory of the
1:42
Americans than he had been before.
1:45
But, you know, diplomatic support, What is that going to
1:48
do for Iran at this point? The Israelis are just banging
1:54
away. They have hit Evin Prison, which
1:57
is where many political prisoners are being held, some
2:00
of whom were apparently injured. They've hit the headquarters of
2:04
the Revolutionary Guard. There are many targets which
2:08
they're going for, which are very much not the nuclear
2:11
facilities or even military facilities.
2:13
They are regime targets. And so it looks as if the
2:18
Israelis are trying to weaken the Islamic Republic as much as
2:23
possible, while the Americans are sort of pulling back a
2:28
little bit. So President Trump and but what
2:32
President Trump says, it's sort of varies because JD Vance's
2:35
vice president was very clear, saying yesterday, we are not
2:38
going for regime change. This is about the nuclear
2:41
program. And then President Trump tweets
2:43
today. Well, you know, maybe it is
2:45
going to be regime change. So, as ever, when you put
2:48
President Trump into the mix, what seems clear suddenly
2:52
becomes not so clear after all. What about the actual damage
2:55
done to the nuclear sites? Because it's now seeming clear
2:58
that Iran had had time to move some of its facilities.
3:02
It might well have got the uranium and the centrifuges out.
3:07
All all we've seen are pictures of essentially holes in the
3:10
sand. So.
3:11
So how confident can we can we be about what's actually been
3:14
done? I think it's very, very
3:16
difficult. I mean, President Trump
3:18
yesterday was very keen to say, you know, the Iranian nuclear
3:21
programme has been obliterated. But even then, the head of the
3:25
Joint Chiefs of Staff was saying, well, you know, we'll
3:27
have to wait for the battlefield assessment.
3:30
And one of the problems is if you hit a facility which is
3:34
deeply underground, well, the satellite pictures aren't going
3:37
to show you very much, are you? You need to be able to have a
3:40
camera that goes deep into the earth and they don't have that.
3:44
Now the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency has said
3:48
that there's no question that there is serious damage to
3:52
Fordo. That is the, the Jeep
3:53
underground facility. But they don't have the ability
3:56
at the moment to really make that assessment.
3:59
And yes, there is a, there are reports that there are 400
4:02
kilograms of highly enriched uranium.
4:05
That's uranium which has been enriched to 60%.
4:08
You need 90% for a bomb, but it's, it's a short step from 60
4:12
to 90 apparently. And yes, we don't know where
4:15
that is. Was it in the underground
4:16
facility or did they move it some weeks or months earlier?
4:21
As yet, we just don't know. Secunda, I mean, what's the
4:24
reaction been like in Israel? Are they all Cocker hoop?
4:30
Well, look, certainly the Israeli government had been
4:32
wanting President Trump to carry out these strikes.
4:35
They know, as all analysts have been saying for the last couple
4:38
of weeks, that it's only these huge 30,000 LB American Buster
4:43
bust, bunker Buster bombs that we're able to take out or cause
4:48
significant damage at least to the Fordo underground nuclear
4:51
facility. So we'd had Israeli officials
4:54
calling on the Trump administration to to get
4:58
involved. And so yes, they are, I think
5:01
absolutely happy. We've in fact seen President
5:04
Prime Minister Netanyahu's popularity rise as a result of
5:08
this. The war with Iran is has a lot
5:10
of popular support here in Israel.
5:12
Many here are now at this stage divided about the war in Gaza.
5:18
And majority, around 70% of the population would be willing to
5:22
see an end to the conflict there in exchange for the return of
5:26
the hostages. But support for the war with
5:28
Iran is, is much, much higher, but 70 to 80% of people and, and
5:32
anytime certainly I've spoken to people, even those living at the
5:37
sites that have been struck by Iranian ballistic missiles that
5:40
have managed to penetrate the Israeli air defence systems.
5:44
They say that we consider the possibility of a nuclear armed
5:47
Iran as an existential threat. And so this is something that we
5:51
believe needed to happen at the moment.
5:55
I think that's the, the kind of main feeling here, both
5:59
politically and at a grassroots level.
6:02
I mean, interestingly, even Netanyahu's political opponents,
6:05
some of those on further to the left of him have been praising
6:09
his, his actions and his decision going on board with his
6:12
decision to, to, to attack the Iranians.
6:15
We'll have to wait and see. I think as, as you and Lindsay
6:18
are pointing out about exactly how much damage has been caused
6:21
to Iran's nuclear capabilities, because you know, the, the, the
6:25
fear, the concern would always be that actually the what if
6:30
the, if the regime retains any ability to, to carry out further
6:35
enrichment, that this whole crisis would push them further
6:38
towards accelerating the drive towards getting a nuclear bomb.
6:41
Because that they'll see that's the only thing capable of of
6:44
ensuring deterrence and perhaps the regime's survival.
6:48
And if there is perhaps deliberate ambiguity here in
6:51
Washington about the aims of the American strikes, are the war
6:57
aims becoming any clearer in Israel?
7:01
Well, I've asked the the Israeli foreign minister whether regime
7:04
change was one of their aims. He and Prime Minister Netanyahu
7:09
have both said that it is not that their aim is to destroy the
7:13
nuclear capabilities than ballistic missile capabilities
7:17
held by Iran. But it does seem a little bit
7:20
more vague than that, just as you've had that confusion around
7:22
Trump's own stance. So there's been images that that
7:27
I think Prime Minister Netanyahu's put out on, on, on
7:30
Twitter to show the Iranian monarchs flag the, the royal
7:35
flag of Iran. And, and so I think certainly
7:39
the Israelis would like to see a regime change in Iran.
7:43
But I and, you know, we've seen actions that are probably
7:46
undertaken by them, for example, hacking of the Iranian state TV
7:50
broadcaster with calls for people to come out to the
7:54
streets. We've had repeated calls by net
7:56
Yahoo to the Iranian people to overthrow their regime.
7:59
So they certainly would like to see it happen.
8:02
Whether they're capable of doing it, I think is another question.
8:05
I mean, I can't think of another example in history, perhaps you
8:08
and Lindsay can, of when regime change has been implemented by
8:13
an outside power that does not have ground troops invading a
8:17
country as it seems out of the question and without any kind of
8:21
local allied opposition force ready to swoop in and and take
8:26
on the the, the existing the existing government.
8:30
Lindsay, what's going on in Iran?
8:33
Well, look, we're seeing through a glass darkly, but the voice
8:37
messages that we're able to to get from there suggest that
8:42
there is a lot of consternation on the part of people who are in
8:47
the central part of Tehran. Evin Prison is right in the
8:50
centre of Tehran. So, you know, people heard that
8:54
go up and was scared and and then we've had messages.
8:58
There was somebody, a political prisoner who was in there who
9:01
called his family and there was a recording of that who just
9:04
described, you know, the terror of it.
9:06
You think about it, you're a political prisoner.
9:08
You've been put away for being against the government, against
9:12
the Islamic Republic. And then suddenly the Israelis
9:16
who are probably trying to destabilize, if not overthrow
9:19
the regime, are bombing you. I mean, in that sense people are
9:22
totally confused and as couldn't assess there's no organized
9:29
opposition. So Raza Paklavi, who is the the
9:32
son of the last Shah, he's trying to sort of set himself up
9:35
as some kind of opposition leader, but he's in, in
9:38
Washington, you know, he's a Pallavi on the Potomac.
9:41
Maybe you'll go and see him. I mean, there he is.
9:44
And this whole operation by these, they've called it rising
9:47
lion. Well, the lion is his symbol,
9:50
but he doesn't really have any following in, in Iran, almost
9:54
none. And people are, you know,
9:57
they're worried about water, they're worried about
9:59
electricity. There's electricity blackouts in
10:01
some of the city. The Internet is down.
10:03
Most of the time we're only able to get messages sporadically
10:06
because most of the time people can't communicate and so people
10:11
are scared and. Are there still foreign
10:14
prisoners in Evin Prison? I mean, this is obviously where
10:17
Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe was held, isn't it?
10:20
Yeah, there are two, I know of 2 French prisoners who are in
10:23
there. And interesting, I was in Geneva
10:26
on Friday and the French foreign minister was talking about them
10:31
and saying that one of the things they really want is
10:33
their, their people back. Now they're both intervene.
10:36
And I'm sure there are others as well, because often countries
10:40
don't publicise what's happened to the to their people in Iran
10:44
because it's, it's deemed that quiet diplomacy will do better.
10:48
So yes, there are definitely foreign prisoners.
10:50
Now, in, in terms of what Iran might do next, I mean, it hasn't
10:53
really done very much so far other than its diplomatic, you
10:59
know, moves and saying it it it will, it will respond in the
11:03
manner to which it chooses. Now, the parliament has talked
11:06
about closing the Straits of Hormuz.
11:12
What what's the significance of that?
11:14
Can it do it and how would it do it?
11:17
Yeah. So Iran has a number of options.
11:20
So the option which would cause a lot of economic damage is
11:25
closing the Straits of Hormuz. Now, this is a narrow waterway
11:28
through which a large proportion of the world's oil comes.
11:33
But that if they close that, which they could do while using
11:37
sea mines or, you know, small boats or whatever, that also
11:42
affects the oil, which is going to their allies, including
11:45
China, so as well as obviously to, to Western countries.
11:50
So that is quite a, that's quite a difficult thing to do.
11:54
But they can do that. And the parliament has said that
11:56
they will do that. The Iranian parliament doesn't
12:00
dictate what happens, but it, it, it gives its advice.
12:03
Now then you've got U.S. forces, about 40,000 of them across the
12:09
region in places like Bahrain and Qatar and the UAE and Iraq.
12:14
They could attack those facilities because but of
12:17
course, those facilities are well prepared for attack.
12:19
They knew that might happen. And interestingly, after the
12:23
Americans killed Suleimani, you know, the leader of the the IGC
12:29
a few years back, the Iranians, they wanted to retaliate, but
12:33
they didn't want to start World War 3.
12:38
So they warned the Americans that they were going to attack
12:40
facilities, particularly in Iraq.
12:42
So the Americans knew to get their people out.
12:45
So in a sense, it was almost symbolic.
12:47
They could do something like that or they could go for it and
12:50
they could, you know, they have cells in different places.
12:54
They may be weaker in the region than they were because their
12:57
proxies like Hezbollah and so on are much weakened by Israel over
13:02
the last last year. But, you know, they may well
13:05
have terrorist cells in different countries which could
13:09
attack Israeli or American targets.
13:13
I mean, there have been Iranian journalists here working for
13:18
opposition channels who have been attacked.
13:21
And Scotland Jihad has said that the Iranian government is is
13:24
behind that. So, you know, you could see all
13:26
sorts of little attacks like that.
13:28
Little in the sense of not being complete outright war, but
13:32
attacks nonetheless. So come to how much damage is
13:35
actually being done in Israel now.
13:37
I mean, you know, we, we keep hearing about how depleted the
13:41
Iranian ballistic missile battery is, but they're still
13:45
sending things over and they're getting through.
13:49
They are. They are at times.
13:50
So Iran was said to have had around 2002 1/2 thousand
13:53
ballistic missiles prior to the start of this conflict.
13:57
The latest figures we have from the Israeli army are around it
14:00
that around 500 of them had been fired.
14:02
So that would suggest that there's, there's a substantial
14:04
number still there, even if you account for a number which the
14:08
Israeli army are likely to have managed to destroy with their
14:12
strikes. The military here also says,
14:15
however, they've destroyed around half of all Israel,
14:18
Iran's ballistic missile launches.
14:21
And we have certainly seen a very significant drop off in
14:24
the, in the scale of the attacks that Iran has been launching.
14:29
So, you know, in the in the initial few days of the war, we
14:32
were seeing dozens and dozens of missiles being launched up to,
14:37
you know, 100 Times Now, you know, around 3:00 in the morning
14:41
this morning, we had a single ballistic that was intercepted.
14:45
I think around 10 were fired later in the later in the day.
14:49
Yesterday was one of them in the morning.
14:51
So kind of the first initial perhaps reaction to those
14:54
American strikes in Iran, we saw a barrage of around 20 to 30
14:59
ballistic missiles. So there's definitely been a
15:03
drop off. The Iranians I think might
15:04
suggest that they're perhaps conserving some of their stop
15:07
for a longer war. But given the scale of Israel's
15:11
attacks on on Iran, and I think it's quite possible that they
15:15
they have now a very significantly reduced capability
15:19
to to strike as well. Of course, you know, you've been
15:22
here, both of you. So, you know, the, the Israeli
15:25
air defense system is very sophisticated, very powerful.
15:27
It is not 100%. And so we see on occasion some
15:31
missiles managing to get through the death toll here, around 24
15:36
people, I believe is the, is the still the current figure.
15:40
I mean, that's, that's significant by Israeli
15:43
standards. And of course every death
15:44
anywhere in the world of a civilian is a, is a, is a
15:47
tragedy, but it's much, much lower than the number of people
15:50
who were killed in Iran. I think the latest figures I saw
15:53
from human rights groups working there were suggesting around in
15:56
excess of 600 people at least, at least around or approximately
16:01
around half of them civilians being killed.
16:03
So, you know, the, the damage that's been done to Israel has
16:07
not, has not at at this stage reached a proportion that's
16:11
making ordinary people or politicians rethink their
16:14
decisions. There was reporting to the the
16:17
beginning of the war saying that Israeli intelligence officials
16:21
had when devising plans for an attack on Iran, which of course
16:25
had been, you know, being prepared for, for for many
16:28
years. They've looked at potentially
16:31
casualties being and fatalities being in the thousands.
16:33
And we certainly not at a stage like that.
16:36
And whilst everyone here I think is expecting that there will be
16:39
some Iranian military retaliation that could take the
16:42
form of, you know, a ramping up of the of the missile barrages.
16:46
At the moment people here I think are feeling fairly
16:50
confident. I mean, I was very struck by
16:52
your report last night actually, where where you had a a man
16:55
who'd lost his home, but he seemed incredibly sanguine and
16:59
quite confident that it was the final stage of the war.
17:03
Yeah, I think most Israelis, I mean, I was speaking to some in
17:06
a in a shelter earlier this morning near where we were when
17:10
when sirens went off and was chatting to them about how they
17:14
were feeling. And of course people, many
17:16
people do feel afraid. But a lot of them also said that
17:21
they believe they hope that there's now a kind of off ramp
17:25
possibility and that once Iran has conducted some kind of
17:29
strike, which they hope will be largely safe face saving rather
17:33
than escalatory, then there could be the possibility of, of,
17:37
of negotiations. I mean, the Trump administration
17:39
has certainly held out that possibility.
17:41
And you know, you guys have been talking about the, the stockpile
17:44
of around 400kg of enriched uranium that is probably still
17:48
exist somewhere in Iran. So I would have thought it would
17:51
very much be in the US and Israel's interest to try and
17:55
strike some kind of deal with the Iranians to ensure that that
17:58
is not enriched to the 90% weapons grade quality that that
18:05
it could be were there to be a complete breakdown in, in, in
18:09
any kind of communications with the Iranians.
18:11
And and they take their and they take their nuclear program
18:14
completely underground. Lindsay, I mean, there are all
18:16
sorts of doomsday scenarios as well-being speculated about
18:19
around the possibility of dirty bombs, asymmetric warfare, Iran,
18:25
you know, activating terrorism cells that there was there was a
18:29
report here in America from NBC who was saying that the Iranians
18:33
are already warned Trump indirectly that they had sleeper
18:36
cells in the United States. What?
18:40
What's the calculation there? Well, there's there's a number
18:43
of calculations out there. So you've got the supreme
18:45
leader, Ali Khamenei, who's 86. So what does he want?
18:50
Well, he wants the regime to survive and to survive after his
18:54
death, which will presumably come at some point in the next
18:58
few years. And he has.
19:01
But he built up this system of having the proxies across the
19:05
region and so on and having this strength through the nuclear
19:08
program, much of which has been destroyed.
19:11
And so, you know, arguably his life's work has it has come to
19:15
very little in the end. So there is one argument which
19:19
says that, you know, he will just go down fighting, that he
19:22
wants to be seen as as a fighter and a master.
19:25
He doesn't care what comes after, but he's got a son who
19:27
might inherit the role. There's all sorts of
19:29
calculations which we don't really know about.
19:31
There's manoeuvring within the regime.
19:33
We understand from, you know, rumours in the way that these
19:37
things are that different people saying that they are, you know,
19:40
they now want to to take over because they are weakened.
19:45
And and then of course, there is the possibility that the regime
19:50
might actually collapse. Now, if it collapsed, what would
19:54
replace it? Well, probably chaos because I
19:57
think Sekunda was saying this is earlier.
19:59
You know, you, it's, you cannot see a way in which the Islamic
20:05
Republic collapses. And what you get in its, in its
20:09
place is some kind of marvellous democratic system.
20:12
You know, you might get a coup or you might get complete
20:16
disorder. So a lot of it depends on, on
20:19
what the people in charge are afraid of and what the, you
20:24
know, what kind of fractures there are within the Islamic
20:28
Republic between the army and the, and the, and the
20:31
Revolutionary Guards. And a lot of this we just don't
20:35
know. And, and at the beginning we
20:37
mentioned this meeting with Russia.
20:39
I mean, Russia could in theory completely change the game,
20:42
couldn't they? Because they could supply Iran
20:44
with more weapons. It doesn't look like that's
20:46
going to happen. President Putin has quite a good
20:51
relationship with Netanyahu and with the Israelis, and he
20:55
absolutely, and he also has another war to fight to
20:58
remember. He's been getting the drones
21:00
from Iran. Although the Iranian drones
21:03
which are used to to fight in Ukraine, they now produce them
21:08
inside Russia. So, yes, he could do that, but
21:12
nothing indicates that he wants to do that.
21:15
Nothing indicates that he feels that the Iranian cause is worth
21:21
a lot of expenditure of diplomatic and financial capital
21:26
at all. I think what he would like would
21:28
be some kind of negotiation. That was what he's been
21:31
indicating today in his meeting with the with the Iranian
21:35
foreign minister. And is it conceivable that Iran
21:39
could enter negotiations without hitting back or first or, or or
21:43
do they have to do that to save face effectively?
21:48
I think that they would be more likely to hit back in some way
21:52
first because not just about saving face, it's also about
21:55
negotiating from what appears to be a position of strength.
22:00
And yet it is quite clear and everybody knows that the
22:03
Iranians will not be negotiating from a position of strength.
22:06
They'll be negotiating from a position of weakness because
22:10
this war has weakened them thoroughly.
22:12
So I think that they will be reaching out at, you know, the
22:16
meeting with the Russians today. There's it's they're trying to
22:20
build up this kind of greater diplomatic strength, which would
22:25
compensate for their military weakness.
22:28
But the problem is what would they be negotiating for?
22:31
Because President Trump has said 0 enrichment and the Israelis
22:36
are saying an end to their ballistic missile program.
22:39
Now, that leaves them extremely weakened in the region and as a
22:44
as a, as a government, as a regime, because what sovereignty
22:48
would the country have if it cannot have any effective
22:52
military force, not just a nuclear program, but a military
22:55
force that's the basic on basis on which most countries operate,
22:59
that they can defend themselves. Iran, at the moment, it seems,
23:03
can't defend itself. So they're an extremely
23:05
difficult situation when it comes to diplomacy as well.
23:08
Just finally, Secunda from from Israel.
23:10
I mean, when I was in Israel a couple of weeks ago, there were
23:13
more voices of criticism of Netanyahu.
23:16
And politically, the voices of Netanyahu against Netanyahu have
23:20
been very, very consistent. People are still very angry with
23:23
him, regardless of what's been going on in Gaza.
23:27
Has has he helped himself and shored up his position
23:31
politically by extending the war in Iran?
23:36
Yes, I think he has. I mean, I was looking at some
23:38
reports suggesting that Netanyahu is currently more
23:42
popular than he's been at any stage since October the 7th
23:45
when, you know, his popularity took a massive, massive dip.
23:49
You know, it's interesting. Some of those figures
23:52
politically, for example, who have been very critical of
23:55
Netanyahu and have been associated with the the protest
23:58
movement against him, Yaya Galan, for example, who's a a
24:03
leading left wing politician. I saw him at the the the of an
24:07
Iranian missile attack and I asked him what his thoughts
24:11
were. And he said he said no, we
24:13
aren't supportive of the war with Iran.
24:16
Because I believe that there was no choice about this, that he's
24:19
remained a critic of Netanyahu. But certainly, I think that's
24:25
representative of the vast majority of people who are
24:29
opposed to Netanyahu, that they might not like him, they might
24:31
not necessarily trust him, but they they support this war and
24:35
they believe that the intelligence that led to it was
24:38
correct because it was furnished by not just Netanyahu, but by
24:42
the Israeli army and security services who they do have more
24:47
faith in. Interestingly, I was just
24:48
speaking to earlier today actually with a father of one of
24:51
the the Israeli hostages who's still in Gaza, someone who's
24:55
been also very critical of Netanyahu.
24:58
He too, you know, didn't think that, that, that he thought that
25:01
the war in Iran was, was, was justified, but he was upset and,
25:05
and, and angry that the, the cases of the, the hostages,
25:09
their plight has been very much overshadowed and clearly
25:13
doesn't, doesn't seem much of A priority for the government and
25:17
for Netanyahu at this stage. And it's kind of fallen a bit
25:21
away from public discourse as well.
25:24
And, and of course, you know, the civilians living in, in
25:28
Gaza, for ordinary people there, the situation remains
25:31
absolutely, absolutely awful. I mean, the, the death toll, the
25:34
daily death toll, frankly in, in, in Gaza completely out
25:39
shadows anything that we're seeing anywhere else in this
25:43
troubled region. It's not getting the kind of
25:45
focus and headlines that it, it once was.
25:48
But it's it the situation on the ground there is much, much, much
25:52
worse than than than anywhere else and.
25:55
And Lindsay, I mean, internationally, I mean,
25:57
obviously again, Netanyahu was facing a lot of criticism from
26:00
Britain and France and Canada over Gaza.
26:04
The, the British statement on the Iranian bombing over the
26:08
weekend was, well, I mean, it, it was just a sort of a
26:11
statement of fact. It wasn't really expressing any
26:14
opinion one way or another. Has, has, has Trump managed to
26:17
pull, you know, to silence Britain and pull them back in
26:20
behind? Look, I think that there's been
26:21
a massive outbreak of hypocrisy because the Europeans and also
26:26
the Gulf Arab countries and so on, I will say that they were
26:29
against this. And I think that a lot of people
26:32
within those, within those governments are breathing a sigh
26:35
of relief, thinking, oh, jolly good, they've set back the
26:39
Iranian nuclear program or destroyed the nuclear program.
26:44
But then there will be other voices within those countries
26:47
say, but what is the cost of this?
26:49
And the cost is international law.
26:52
Do you remember you went back to Iraq in 2003?
26:57
Do you remember there were weeks of going through the UN and
27:01
talking about the legality and UN Security Council resolutions
27:05
and also trying to get some kind of international consensus?
27:09
All of that is gone by the board.
27:11
We're now in a world where Vladimir Putin can invade
27:15
Ukraine and he just does it, where the Israelis can attack
27:19
Iran and then the Americans can attack Iran as well.
27:22
And, you know, international law, the, you know, the system
27:26
where you had some kind of rules where things went through the
27:28
Security Council, all of that is gone now When you have the
27:33
Europeans who are choosing, you know, not to say very much or
27:36
just to say a little because actually they're kind of a
27:38
little bit in favour. I'm also just a little bit
27:41
worried about it. What does that mean?
27:43
It's about the future as well. So what about when China invades
27:47
Taiwan? What happens then?
27:49
What is there? Why shouldn't they, given that
27:52
the Russians have done what they wanted to do, the Israelis and
27:56
the Americans have done what they wanted to do?
27:58
And these statements, these sort of, you know, milk toast
28:02
statements from from the Europeans, it just makes them
28:06
look, she's anonymous and weak. Yes, I mean, Mark Rutter, the
28:10
NATO chief, has apparently just said that the US strikes on Iran
28:13
were not in violation of international law.
28:15
I've no idea on what basis he's saying that there was no UN
28:18
resolution, there was no imminent threat.
28:21
You know, how could it possibly be in line with international
28:24
law? I don't know, but you can find a
28:27
lawyer to tell you anything, can't you?
28:28
Which was the kind of argument which we, you know, which we had
28:31
before the before the Iraq war. And and just finally on Trump
28:36
then, I mean, you know, obviously he's impossible to
28:40
predict, but do you think he's likely to do anything more
28:45
militarily? Look, you know, I can predict
28:49
anything apart from the future, and I certainly can't predict
28:53
what Donald Trump is going to do.
28:55
I mean, he said, you know, he said himself last week, doesn't
28:57
he? Nobody knows what I'm going to
28:58
do. I'd like to make up my mind a
29:01
second before I do it. So if he can't even predict what
29:04
he's going to do himself, how could I?
29:06
But obviously, the Americans have a choice at this point,
29:10
which is to pull right back, leave it to the Israelis to do
29:14
whatever we can. The Islamic Republic possibly,
29:19
you know, 'cause it's collapse and push for negotiations, which
29:25
is what he has indicated that he wants to do.
29:29
But if the Iranians do hit back, and if, for example, they kill
29:33
Americans somewhere, then there are going to be voices around
29:37
Donald Trump to say, well, you know, we need to bomb something
29:41
else. We need to go in again, we need
29:42
to do more. And that's what his sort of
29:45
isolationist MAGA wing, the people like Steve Bannon and so
29:48
on, are worried about. They're worried about the
29:50
Americans getting pulled into a wider war.
29:54
He has said he doesn't want to do that.
29:56
But one of the things we've learned over the years is that
29:59
any kind of military intervention, it has unintended
30:02
consequences, and we just don't know what those are going to be.
30:05
Indeed. And I mean, it's worth
30:07
mentioning that it it appears that Trump had lunch with Steve
30:10
Bannon on the day that he ordered the strikes.
30:13
And the American reaction here has been quite, quite remarkable
30:17
really. And it's it's quite
30:18
illustrative, I think, of how how weak Congress is at the
30:21
moment and that there are a lot of Democrats who were saying
30:24
this was unconstitutional. The American president doesn't
30:27
have the power to carry out this kind of military action without
30:30
congressional approval. And some Republicans are saying
30:34
the same thing, A very small, small number.
30:37
But the president and the administration have absolutely
30:40
no doubt that they were within their rights to do this.
30:43
They're showing no sign of taking this to Congress in the
30:46
near future. And so they will just carry on.
30:50
We'll leave it there. Secunda.
30:51
Lindsay, thank you very much indeed.
30:53
That's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.