Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 36 : Spring Training Performances

Transcript

Ep. 36 : Spring Training Performances · Cards & Categories

0:16
Hello, and welcome everybody to episode thirty six of Cards and Categories. I'm
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my Coolard from Rasball here, joined by my very good friend as always,
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Jeremy Burr, also from Rasball. How you doing tonight, Broup. I
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am doing great. My soul is so happy because we have baseball in Seoul,
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South Korea. I've been working on that intro all day and I'm so
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happy I got to use it. So that's great. I'm glad that.
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I'm glad that you had that pun ready to go when you did you wake
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up and watch the game this morning at all. I did not watch,
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but I follow it online as I was trying to get ready in the morning
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this morning, and unfortunately I missed the kind of the Dodgers breaking it all
0:59
open. It looked like the Padre's we're going to try to pull it out
1:03
when I started paying attention, but I did not wake up in time to
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watch to watch. How about you were you were you tuned in for this
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one? Yeah? I was able to catch when the Dodgers started breaking it
1:12
open against the Padres. Bullpen just looked like a mess from the start,
1:17
with Mike Schill pulling you darvish a little early, and yeah, I saw
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that eighth inning come back as I'm actually we're doing this podcast on the road
1:26
for the first time. I am down in Florida spring training recording from a
1:30
fairfield in in Fort Myers right now. But this morning only the best.
1:34
Yeah, this morning. I started the day in Jupiter after seeing some Cardinals
1:40
games. I saw the split squad doubleheader on Tuesday night and or like Tuesday
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afternoon to night. And then yeah, this morning, while we were getting
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ready to drive across the state, we watched my wife and I we watched
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the eighth inning of the end of that Hadre Dodgers game. And yeah,
2:01
it is officially baseball season because yeah, and I've got the sunburned to prove
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it now too, because I've been to four games since I've been down here
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on sun starting on Sunday. So hit Tigers Twins today and saw the Tigers.
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The Tigers offense looked really good with all the young guns today against the
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Twins. I think they might be a sleeper pick for the Ale Central.
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Actually I don't know that it was a sleeper picks in the al Central.
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Like it's yeah, I mean, and there's a White Sox like if you
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said the white socks, like, Okay, that's a sleeper pick, but
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I mean super sleeping. Nobody's gonna yeah cold dead, just like cadaver dead
2:43
cold like. Anyways, Okay, we're also kicking the can down the road
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here a little bit. We are actually I'm gonna preview what we're going to
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talk about this week for sure, now that I'm getting to the habit of
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it. We are going to talk about some spring training stats and surprises that
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either you know, we've seen in terms of watching games here early on in
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the spring, or have just found sorting through leaderboards, as I think that
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Baseball Reference has a great leader board because they also include an opponent's quality on
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those spring training stats, which is really nice so that you can see how
3:19
those players are performing against you know, maybe they're only batting against single A
3:24
level pitchers, or maybe they are facing more major league level pitching, which
3:29
is good to be able to line up how that performance is going. And
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then yeah, we will start first with some news though, because we've got
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some big news since we've talked last week. The first one is the Giants
3:44
signing Blake Snell to a two year, sixty two million dollar contract, and
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I think this is maybe like one of the only free agent landing spots they
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called, right, So I'm gonna gloat about that and not let people.
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I guess they can go back to our December and November pod when we tried
4:00
to predict where everyone would go. I can say that you're you're doing way
4:02
better, mostly because I think you had Yamamoto and Otani going to the Dodgers,
4:06
at least Otani. But I believe that's just like answering C on a
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on a multiple choice tests the whole way down. I'm just gonna say the
4:14
Dodgers get everybody like that's that's all, as it would have worked pretty well.
4:19
So yeah, Blake Snell to the Giants is Honestly, this is a
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fantastic landing spot if you had any Blake Snell shares, because there aren't many
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places that are better to pitch than San Francisco, right, Yeah, there's
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really not a better landing spot. I mean maybe if you went back to
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Petko, that may have been slightly better, but not not a whole lot
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like it is. San Francisco is gonna be a fantastic spot for him.
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I'm gonna have a pretty decent defense beat behind him, not not not all
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star, not gold gloved necessarily, but still i'd say top top third league
4:58
defense for sure. So it can't be any happier for this. For for
5:02
Blake Snell, you know, the only question is how quickly is he gonna
5:04
be up and ramped. I think he was throwing full simulated games, four
5:09
or five Indian simulated games, you know, even as recent as last week,
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So he's he's keeping himself going. And yeah, I actually love it
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for the fact that he's in the same division he was. He's in a
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good ballpark, you know, he's he's probably got as much chances for wins
5:28
as he did when he was with the Padres, it seems like. So
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it's I hate to say a neutral for where he was last year, but
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when you're a cy young and we're saying, well, all the factors are
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winding up, that's not a bad thing. So I'm really loving this for
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Blake Snell. And if you had any shares of me, if you took
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the game with the draft board, this one's definitely playing off for fantasy owners
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that that held out and didn't see him go to the Bronx or somebody somewhere
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like that. Yeah, absolutely, And I think you also one of the
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best points that you made in there is that he's sticking in the same division.
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So like something I do worry about for players when they switch teams in
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free agency is just getting familiar with the new place. And so that's why
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with Matt Chapman when he signed with the Giants, I felt a little bit
6:12
better since he played in Oakland, he knows the Bay Area. Blake Snell
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knows the NL West really well, so you would think he has pretty good
6:19
familiarity with how things operate in San Francisco, as well as obviously all the
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other division mates and going down to San Diego, so that should be a
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boon to any Blake Snell shares out there. Is I mean, I saw
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him slipping down lots of draft boards in terms of NFBC data. You know
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in the raz Slams he was slipping a lot too, So it is certainly
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a nice landing spot if you ended up with one of those super cheap Blake
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Snell shares certainly better. Then it sounds like Jordan Montgomery is threatening to go
6:53
into the season without signing somewhere. So if you gambled on both of them
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together. Hopefully you did like he did. Yeah, I did, one
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of our leagues, and I have a very thrilled with Lakes still sign this
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one. I was just hoping anybody to sign an Indians little on the quality.
7:12
Yeah, exactly. So you hit one of those bets. That's nice,
7:15
Okay. Well, the other big piece of news that we have in
7:18
terms of roster management is Matt McLean looks like he's in rough shape over in
7:25
Cincinnati, that the second baseman is now battling a shoulder injury, and I
7:30
think it's heading towards maybe kneeding surgery posts this MRI. It's all very fluid
7:36
as we're recording this on Wednesday, March twentieth, because literally, like twenty
7:43
minutes ago, the Reds traded for Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays, which
7:46
shows how dire things went from the Reds having too mini infielders to needing to
7:51
bring in Santiago Espinal. So it doesn't look for Matt McLain here as first
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you open camp with an oblique injury. Last summer he battled back injuries and
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this is just not a really great career tactory. If you were having shares
8:09
of Matt McLean and Dynasty and keeper leagues. Because that's three pretty significant injuries
8:15
now into what less than like three fourths of a year of playing time.
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Yeah, it's it's not looking good for m clay. You know, I
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think the worst thing they can say is second opinion, because we found something
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that's They usually don't say that, like when they say something like that,
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like Sea, you're gone for a while. There you are gonna it's gonna
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be a few months. And you know, you look at how he was
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the spring I mean he was what over over thirteen at the plate. He
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struck out half the time, Like it was not a good spring training.
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So it's not like one of those were like, yeah, he still has
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hit well the spring training. Maybe something's you know, tweaked or something like
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that. Maybe there's a little hope that like, uh, you know,
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something like he was hurt, he was playing bad, and now he's really
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hurt. That's not good and you have to you have to kind of almost
9:03
laugh at the at the situation here with the Reds. You know, going
9:07
to the off season, they were the team that had all this glutted infielders
9:09
where they do you know, signed Condelario, and how in the world are
9:13
gonna fit there? And all of a sudden it's like, hey, we've
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got spots, We've got all this room. It just as it happens to
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do in baseball, it works itself out. Uh So it seems like,
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you know, lest Bean y'all's your point is being brought in. You know,
9:26
I think really more for backup u per se. You sure hope they're
9:31
not gonna have to rely on them. But at the same time, you
9:33
know, there's yeah, they need somebody to fill in because you're down McClane,
9:39
you're down Marte. It's gonna make things tough. They might be regretting
9:43
not bringing Joey Vado back at this point. Yeah, because we also,
9:48
since we've talked last week, TJ. Friedel has gone down with a fractured
9:52
wrist in the outfield, and if you look at roster resource right now,
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Mike Ford is sided in as the strong side d H for the Reds.
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That that's how far things have fallen. When you're bringing Mike Ford in,
10:05
and I mean he was just barely hanging on in Seattle last year. Glad
10:09
that he found a landing spot. But you are right. That should have
10:13
been Joey Evado's spot if he had just waited another week. And I'm looking
10:18
through the minor league system too, to see if there's anybody that could save
10:22
them. I know from like the Baseball card side that Yvonne Johnson and Carlos
10:28
Jorge are kind of sexy names to invest in, but I'm looking at their
10:33
minor league strikeout rates and I don't know if they're going to be helping Cincinnati
10:37
time this year. So they're also now teetering on edge where the next injury
10:43
on that Cincinnati infield means that Santiago Esminol is a starter somewhere on that infield.
10:48
So it really went downhill fast. I can't believe it. Yeah,
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it's it's it's scary, you know. I think, you know, they
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have like Ivan Johnson down there, you know, twenty five year olds.
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I think shortstop, you might have a chance to bring a little something.
11:05
He actually had a decent season at double A last year, fourteen twenty season,
11:11
not only hit like two twenty. But you know they might be deep
11:15
jumping down for guys like that. But there's just you know, not much.
11:18
They gotta be thrilled that they held on to Jonathan India at this point.
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Yeah, I mean, I also think part of it was they just
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couldn't move India with that Plantire fasciitis. So let's see how he can handle
11:30
playing second base, because I liked the idea of India getting more playing time
11:35
at DH to be able to maybe heal up or just to take it easier
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on his feet during the season. But if he's having to play the field
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all the time too, like, there's no way that Planto fasciitis is going
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to be feeling great at any point during the season for India. Yep.
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So we'll see what the Reds do. But if you haven't drafted this point,
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I would steer very clear of Matt McLain. And if you have them
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and somebody's willing to give you, I don't know what would you take a
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quarter on the dollar at this point just to get something serviceable. It's probably
12:09
not even somebody that you can actually even move at this point. It's probably
12:13
dead weight until you have more news. Yeah, I agree that. I
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mean you would have to be taking back so I mean I take back pretty
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much nothing because I mean, at this point, especially in a just single
12:28
season league where there's no keeper or dynasty Elmet. I don't know if McLean's
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going to be seeing much of the field this year. Yeah, it's it'll
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be interesting. So good luck to the Reds team that thought they're going to
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battle for the Central this year and does not look like that's really what's going
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to take place. Time will tell, but the Reds are a little little
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questionable at best, exactly. Yeah, okay. And then the other news
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that we have breaking really late here as we record on the twentieth of March
12:58
is the whole show Hey and his translator Epay situation with it initially sounded like
13:05
Otani was covering from for some gambling losses, and the initial story that came
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out today and then now Otani and his lawyers are saying that Epey stole the
13:15
money for the gambling losses from Otani. So I'll link to the original story
13:22
from ESPN, which is it's a wild ride in terms of learning the ins
13:28
and outs of like how they Otani and epe got caught into this whole ring
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that there was a federal FBI investigation into California bookies where actually I didn't know
13:39
this, but Sports gambling is still i llegal out in California, so that's
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why there's underground bookies to take bets, and so that's where epay apparently was
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putting in these bets on every sport butt MLB, and so I think this
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is just Also I'm not surprised that like this sort of story is coming out,
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just given how integrated sports betting in the leagues are nowadays. And you
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know, ESPN Bet is around now, so like they're broadcasting games while having
14:13
like their ESPN Bet information right next to it, and it all does feel
14:16
very scummy and scammy, and I'm not at all shocked that something like this
14:22
has now surfaced, tomb. I guess it's a little shocking who it is
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between Epe and Otani, and I'm sure that we'll have more to discuss on
14:31
this next week as more and more facts or out. Yeah, it's I
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mean, we can't really draw conclusions as the news just broke. It is
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unfortunate, you know Otani, you know, for everybody to look at he's
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got the cleanest reputation, all these kind of things, and you have to
14:48
just just assume that, you know, assume the best and move on.
14:52
It's it's probably not even worth uh, spending a lot of time digging into
14:54
what's going on, and if it's really gonna drive any fantasy values or anything.
15:01
It's it's gonna be public perception and we'll move on. If something crazy
15:05
breaks, we'll deal with it later. That's that's kind of my view on
15:07
this one. But it's it's one of those it's Otani, it's gonna make
15:13
news. You have to think if this was somebody else, will this be
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backpage news? Would this it even come up? I guess who else is
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paying for and a half million dollars in their interpreters gambling does Maybe that is
15:24
pretty absurd? Yes, I mean that's that just seems like a rough Saturday
15:28
night in Vegas. Yeah, and it is also funny, seemed just like
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the jock position of this story coming out here now on the night of the
15:37
twentieth with Otani's instagram just has highlights of him going one for five or two
15:43
for five today in the Soul Korea game and stealing a base and getting an
15:48
RBI, and it looked like he was starting a really solid fantasy season.
15:52
So you would think that if anybody could kind of rise above what is going
15:58
on around him. It's so Tani, given is how incredible of an athlete
16:02
he's been over the years. But like I said, we'll see how this
16:06
unfolds over the next week. But I wouldn't be surprised if at this point
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we're talking about like an Antani suspension or something next week. But who knows
16:14
how fast this could unravel, you know, Yeah, no idea, So
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stay tuned. I'm sure this will give us more to talk about. It's
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almost as exciting as TOPS, you know, those fun things to talk about.
16:25
But yeah, for speaking of which, good seg that we'll get into
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a little bit of the TOPS releases. I think we'll probably finally get back
16:33
into more card discussion next week because apparently TOPS is going to try to pump
16:37
out multiple releases on March twenty seventh, as we had previously discussed twenty twenty
16:44
four Big League and twenty twenty four Tribute coming out, but it looks like
16:47
twenty twenty three Tops transcend It, which is honestly, sometimes I don't know
16:52
the difference between Tribute and Transcendent, Like when I see the cards out in
16:56
the wild, and I'm sure I'm not the only one, because they both
17:00
start with t tr that is, and so that will be an interesting week
17:06
for Tops. Next week, I think we'll dive into a few those sets.
17:08
But they've also added twenty twenty three Tops Dynasty to this week's release schedule
17:14
on three twenty two, as I believe that one got pushed back from a
17:17
few months ago, so they're kind of catching up. Brew, do you
17:22
have anything to add on now on tributor Transgender. We're gonna confuse ourselves diving
17:26
into it next week and can parse it apart then yeah, Well, another
17:32
thin thing I'll say is, you know, Tribute is a set that I
17:33
really genuinely enjoy. It is kind of funny because Tribute, Triple Threads,
17:38
five Star, Tier one, they're all kind of like the same set.
17:44
So actually was talking to somebody at a card shop just a few days ago
17:48
and we were talking about Tier one, and I think the guys like,
17:52
well, it's Tier one or Tribute or one of those things. All they
17:56
all run together. I'm not quite sure. I'm like, yep, I
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mean the same card, star, same you know, kind of quality feel.
18:02
But those they're just always really nice cards fit well in the collection.
18:06
If you're an autograph collector or a nice patch collector. They're always fun cards,
18:10
so it'll be fun to kind of dive into Tribute see kind of what
18:12
it looks like, and probably how expensive those boxes are going to be that
18:17
I'm not gonna rip. So yeah, I didn't even see any of the
18:21
prices on the Transcendent Boxes podcasting. It's in the same boat and I don't
18:26
even know more. Yeah, I don't even know if it's worth us discussing
18:29
the Dynasty like box prices because I'm never playing in that pool, and I'm
18:33
not sure if anybody on the our listener side as ever playing in the Tops
18:37
Dynasty pool. But if you are, you can reach out to us at
18:41
Cardscategories at gmail dot com and let us know all the Tops Dynasty that you
18:45
might not be out there ripping. We also do have merch for sales,
18:51
so I will drop the link for that in the podcast, so you can
18:55
check that out and pick up some hats, especially as summer spring on the
19:00
corner. We want to look fashionable in a new Cards Categories hat. I'm
19:03
sure, okay, let's get in. That was a wonderful transition from expensive
19:08
cards to buy our merch. I really loved that, by the way,
19:11
no problem. I mean I figured, like, yeah, if you're not
19:14
going to throw money at tops ninasty, you can throw it our way.
19:17
I'm okay with that. Yeah, okay, all right, let's get into
19:22
some twenty twenty four spring training stats as we have rifled through the statistics that
19:27
have come out from the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues. And what I really like
19:34
about Baseball Reference, like I said a little bit earlier, is it provides
19:37
a score in terms of how good the opponents are. So I will drop
19:42
the links to both the pitching stats and batting stats in our show notes so
19:45
that you can sort through them yourself. But this is also the first year
19:49
that Fangrafts has been running spring training stats on their website as well, so
19:55
that's a good source of content to so it's been nice to have that added
20:00
to each player's fangraft page and there's a little more information there in terms of
20:06
Like what I like is that swinging strike rate, which will bring up on
20:10
a couple of our guys, is included on those Fangrafts sites now, which
20:15
is probably one of the better statistical signifiers that we're looking for in spring because
20:22
it's it just is it solidifies much more quickly than any of the other kind
20:27
of rate stats that we're looking at. But brew, when you're looking through
20:32
spring training stats, are there any sorts of indicators that you're really looking for.
20:37
Yeah, I mean, clearly you're looking for the guys who are kind
20:40
of popping off. But I'm kind of kind of with you. I'm really
20:42
looking at the plate approach stats and so like I'm looking at your walk rate,
20:49
swinging strike ray, your strikeout rates, those kind of things. I'm
20:53
ignoring your babeip or anything like that. I'm just ignoring those from a pitching
20:57
perspective. I'm looking a little bit or at trying to velocity is a little
21:02
bit harder to find on some of these, but trying to trying to at
21:06
least track down the early velocity readings on on the pitchers, a little bit
21:11
of the ground ball rate is where's that plane really with? Is there a
21:15
pitch mixed difference? Uh? So those are kind of things I'm looking at
21:18
the end of the day. It's it's it's not about the power. I
21:22
am a little interested on the hitter side about the speed are you running?
21:25
It is to me is one of those interesting things, and it's not as
21:29
much about the player. Sometimes it is about the team. Is that team
21:33
one that's gonna run let their guys go. It's not always the most telling
21:37
if you're not running, because you sometimes don't run your your big stars,
21:40
so you don't want them to get hurt. So you know, it's a
21:42
giver, give or take. But you're just trying to read the tea leaves
21:45
on these guys in spring training and see what what you can pull out out
21:49
of the numbers. So how about you, what what do you you know?
21:52
You mentioned swinging strikeer great? Is there anything else that you're really looking
21:55
at? I am looking at those opponent quality scores on Baseball Reference, just
22:00
lining it up with I found that the easiest way to kind of sort to
22:04
see who's doing well is by total bases as opposed to ops or average or
22:10
anything else, and that can kind of then you can look at how that
22:14
player's total bases have been accumulated. You know, if it is all singles,
22:18
you would prefer to see, you know, more doubles, triples,
22:22
homers, just stuff that indicates power and hard contact because part of the it's
22:27
really hard to parse these stats sometimes and lots of people throw them out just
22:32
because like in Arizona, it's all the games are at elevation in the thin
22:37
Arizona air. In Florida, if you watch some of the games, and
22:41
just being down here this week seeing some of the games like played in these
22:45
minor league stadiums with the wind blowing straight to right, like straight out to
22:49
right field or straight in from left that you don't know that if you know,
22:55
some of the homers, just the raw homers, are little pop flies
22:59
that have squeaked out that On Sunday, I saw Jose Bray you just flick
23:06
a little pop fly off the end of his bat in Jupiter and at Roger
23:10
Dean's Stadium against the Cardinals, and it launched all the way out to left
23:14
field for home or out of nowhere. No one thought it was a homew're
23:17
in the entire stadium. But those types of things happen in spring as well.
23:21
As I've forgotten until I started coming to games again this week, is
23:26
that if you're a starting pitcher, you can pitch part of an inning and
23:30
then like once you get tired or whatever, you can go sit down and
23:34
then come back in and so that creates some chaos in terms of usually the
23:40
pictures that coming in to relieve that starter are just some really random reliever from
23:47
a ball that can get warmed up real fast because they're not trying to spend
23:51
the bullets of anybody significant in the bullpen or anyone else in the rotation.
23:56
So because of that, you can get a lot of noise really quickly in
23:59
the stats, and so you need things that are just a little bit quicker
24:04
indicators in terms of velocity readings and some of those late discipline stats. But
24:11
otherwise because of that, like it's really hard to judge pitchers between them working
24:18
on new pitches or getting subbed in and out of games that I found that
24:22
pitching performances are the noisiest thing to try to interpret. Yeah, absolutely are.
24:30
I's that you almost want to stick to pitch mix some velocity there and
24:33
hopeful the best. Well with that, let's start getting into some players then,
24:37
and I think we'll start with the pitching side, just because there's a
24:41
couple guys that I think that we found that have really popped out because of
24:45
even with the things that we're talking about, the cream has really risen to
24:48
the top in terms of these pitchers, their pitch mixes are looking good,
24:55
the velocity is looking good, and the results are looking good. And Brew,
24:59
I'll let you go for with your pitcher, your pick. Yeah mine,
25:03
you know, going back for a few years for really an ace is
25:06
Shane Bieber. Shane Bieber has looked absolutely fantastic this spring. We just expouse
25:11
how we don't like to talk about stats for pitchers, and I'm gonna rattle
25:15
the stats off, so we're going to ruin that real quick. But you
25:18
know, Bieber's he's thrown just a little over eleven innings. His round ball
25:23
rate is fifty six percent, which is just fantastic. That's the best it's
25:29
it's been in some time. You know, his strikeouts are there. He's
25:33
zerra as in the low twoss velocity though has the last few years, so
25:38
last three years lost he was ninety three or ninety two, nine, ninety
25:42
one, five one six. He's been clocking in at ninety four or better
25:48
this spring, So that's almost that's almost three ticks on the on the fastball.
25:53
That's getting back to his seasons back in twenty nineteen and twenty twenty,
25:59
and that's what he was pretty good in the twenty nineteen and twenty twenty seasons,
26:06
and so you know, if that you know, is bringing back really
26:08
the strikeouts, which is really the piece for Bieber that was missing last year.
26:12
Otherwise you know, the era a jumped a little bit, but you
26:17
know that's part of that what did come with the strikeouts being down and his
26:23
control is still being Shane Bieber controlled the last few years. So if he's
26:27
able to bring that up a little bit and be a little more deceptive with
26:30
his pitches, and again he was a drive Line you know this this offseason,
26:36
so there's something to be said for that. We've seen some success for
26:38
especially guys that are established and just looking to pick a little bit up something
26:42
else, not like rediscover their careers. That's really where I feel like drive
26:47
Line has been made their biggest inroads. Like you got all the tools,
26:49
you just need to get a little tweak, get a little extra. Yeah,
26:53
So I'm really excited about Shane Bieber. He's looked absolutely fantastic. He's
26:57
getting the opening day nod for the Guardians, and I think, you know,
27:00
for all the workhorses and the guys that you could be looking from a
27:06
fancy perspective he was going and I don't have it in front of you.
27:08
Maybe you do it with the average draft position, but he was going pretty
27:15
far down in drafts just you know, a few weeks ago, and so
27:19
I think there's folks that were going to get a really nice bargain on some
27:25
Shane Biaber shares. Yeah. I agree that he's been looking really lights out,
27:33
like back to cy Young level Shane Bieber. And if he gets those
27:36
ticks back on the fastball, you can just see that he is fastball by
27:40
stuff Plus last year was only an eighty one because it really doesn't have great
27:45
shape to it. He's never had a great shape to the fastball. But
27:48
what he uses the fastball for is to set up his really nasty slider,
27:52
which rated as a one to eleven stuff Plus last year. And you can
27:56
see it actually in some of these spring training clips that because Shane Bieber is
28:02
so good at tunneling his pitches and just crafting like how they come out of
28:07
his hand and working that aspect that when he's got a little extra gidea up
28:12
on that fastball, it kills that split second for the batter to be able
28:18
to determine if it's the fastball or the slider out of the hand, and
28:21
then at that point they're just totally at the mercy of that slider once it
28:26
breaks away from them. So if he can get back to sitting at ninety
28:30
three to ninety four, I think you could be seeing a Shane Bieber that
28:34
is pushing a K nine, that is in the double digits, and you
28:38
know, could be going for a Cy Young again. I mean he's been
28:42
looking really really great. Yeah, and I thought that it was looking as
28:45
ADP just here in March. His ADP is one forty three, so he's
28:52
going off the board as a fifty sixth pitcher including relievers and things like that.
28:56
So you know he's going off between mean Meryl Kelly and Carlos Redon that
29:03
give me Shane Bieber all day before these results, I was taking Shampier all
29:07
day. But you know, there's there's a lot to like at that at
29:11
that price point. There's probably nobody else around that range outside of this one
29:18
guy that I'm a fan of that got some injury discounts recently, his named
29:22
Sonny Gray. There's very few other guys in that same range that couldn't be
29:26
in the Cy Young conversation without too big of a squints, and so I
29:30
think, you know, there's gonna be folks that are just absolutely enamored with
29:36
Biber this year because he's gonna look very good and he's he's gonna prove why
29:41
the Guardians kind of held on to him, if nothing else, to get
29:44
a stock back up to where where it could be before they they make a
29:48
move with them. Yeah, and for my choice. Actually, one of
29:52
the guys you mentioned I almost did pick, and that's Carlos Dan and he
29:56
has started to turn the corner a little bit here in the spring that It's
30:00
been a slow ramp up, but the stuff has looked great the past couple
30:03
outings that I think if you got some girls, we're down shares, you're
30:07
kind of happy with those right now. But I'm going super I can't believe
30:11
I'm about to do this my pick. And this is a little bit in
30:18
the bold of like Chris. You remember Chris boobage from last year where just
30:22
like everything looked electric and then his elbow blew out. I think that's where
30:26
this is going to go. But I'm gonna ride the train until that elbow
30:29
bows out. Kyle Freeland has looked amazing in spring absolutely like ace level amazing.
30:36
His his stuff is up. He's been hovering around ninety three to ninety
30:41
four on his fastball, when last year it was sitting in the low nineties.
30:47
So it's a lot of like what we were just saying about Bieber and
30:51
he Freequan's always had a prey solid slider and solid knuckle curve to pair with
30:56
everything that if he's got the fast to work off of. He's a really
31:02
big left handed pitcher, has shown previously he get pitched in Colorado. You
31:07
know that twenty eighteen season was really magical when he put up a two eighty
31:11
five ERA with seventeen wins for Colorado. And right now everything is working extremely
31:18
well for him. He's got fourteen strikeouts to one walk in spring training over
31:22
fourteen innings. It's coming with a fifty six percent ground ball rate and a
31:30
swinging strike rate that is fifteen percent when he's his career highs nine point six.
31:37
So we might be seeing a totally new Kyle Freeland here in twenty twenty
31:41
four. And I'm not saying go and draft him like one hundred and fiftieth
31:48
or even in your top two hundred. This is a great I think last
31:52
start throw last pick in an entire draft because he's opening on the road in
31:56
Arizona for the first week, which it would be a pretty good matchup.
32:00
That's a good picture's park. And if Kyle Freeland is staying this sharp,
32:06
you might get one good start out of him. And if he's like I
32:08
said, if he's your last pick, wow, that's a great start.
32:12
And if you can somehow use him as a starter that you can stream on
32:16
the road and you know, capture some of this magic. I mean,
32:21
it's free money. He's the kind of guy that I thought, First of
32:24
all, I'm scared of death of Kyle free very clear plus ten. But
32:31
yeah, it's it's one of those like do you really want to trust it?
32:36
I mean, it's it's Kyle Freeland fridging on the Rockies. But but
32:39
to your point, like he's the kind of guy throughout the season you're you're
32:43
looking ahead and it's like two start week on the road. Yes, please,
32:46
I'll try that out. I think that's the the Kyle Freeland that you're
32:51
looking for. I did look up the ADP of Kyle Freeland, and it
32:54
does exist. And it's seven hundred and fifteen, which I don't think exactly
33:00
really hounces, Like, I didn't know you had that many rounds. I
33:04
took him as my last pick in RAS Slam round seventy three. We'll see
33:10
what happens now. Yeah, but maybe the best ball format that might be
33:14
the way to go is something like that with with f Yeah, that might
33:16
be the spot for it. So Kyle Freeland, I don't think I have
33:22
much much else I can say. Yeah, well, I mean, I'm
33:25
I'm definitely streaming that Arizona start where I can, and like at that point,
33:30
who knows, Like maybe you'll get the magic, maybe it blows up
33:34
on you. But if it does blow up on you, you only took
33:37
one start of Kyle Freeland, you know what I mean. But all the
33:39
indicators look really great, So we'll see where that takes him going into the
33:45
season. But yeah, let's flip over to the bats, because I think
33:49
this is where, especially with the eye test and you can just see some
33:52
of the the homers in contacts some of these guys are making it's a little
33:57
easier to believe in their stats overall, because it's just it's hard to hit
34:02
a baseball, and if he can do it well, it usually means that
34:05
you can keep it going the rest of the season. So, Brew,
34:08
who's your first bat that's really impressed to you here in the spring? Yeah,
34:13
the first guy I'm gonna gonna stick with some youth here is actually gonna
34:16
stick in Cleveland. Going off to Cleveland, we got chased the Louder and
34:22
I'm probably mispronouncing his name. I think that's okay. And if you look
34:27
at him, he's one of those guys that people really question his swing.
34:30
He has very a very unique swing and I'll let me of us swing a
34:36
follow through, a very abrupt kind of short follow through, which I think
34:39
has turned some people off. But the Louder has been an absolute on an
34:45
absolute tear in spring training. You know, he he's only twenty two years
34:51
old. He's sixteenth overall pick in the twenty two draft. But this spring
34:58
he is hitting five to twenty with four bombs, and he has only struck
35:04
out four times in twenty five at bats. So you've got a guy that
35:08
is walking more than he strikes out, which has been his career minor league
35:14
track record. Like that's what he's done at every stop. He is in
35:17
every stop outside nine games in the Complex leagues when he first started out,
35:24
he's hit three sixty year better and he is just absolutely flying through the system
35:30
and he looks every bit the part of it. For Cleveland, there's really
35:36
not he used to say, much standing in the way for the chase on
35:40
that Guardian's team, and so I don't know what they're gonna do they I
35:45
don't think I've seen anything announced on him. He hasn't been options, like
35:50
an option to the minor league camp like Minzarto has, and so you know,
35:54
he's got an outside shot to really crack the line up, and if
36:00
he does, like he's probably hitting like four behind those Ramires. So because
36:07
there's no I mean otherwise this Josh Naylor is kind of like you know where
36:12
projected to hit behind Ramiro. So yeah, Louder has just been a fantastic
36:17
to watch. The power is absolutely real. If you watch any of the
36:22
highlights there, they like the home where sea hits are no doubters, wind
36:27
or no winds. They they really jump out there. So I've really been
36:30
excited by him this spring. I'm I'm picking him up wherever I get a
36:34
chance. I would be I would go out to say limits, I'd be
36:37
shocked if he does not on that opening day lineup for for Cleveland. Yeah.
36:42
I mean at this point too, it's not like uh, our pod
36:45
favorite Esteban Florial is proving anything. I'm roping you in on this Estevan Flori
36:51
all love that, that's right. Uh Yeah, I saw I saw him
36:54
on the roster resource depth charts. I just didn't want to go there.
36:59
You know, when you when you have a spring where you hit you know,
37:02
one p fifty and what is it you strike out nineteen times and forty
37:12
at bats. I'm not an expert, but I'm pretty sure that's not good.
37:17
And so I don't I don't think he's going to be holding anybody back
37:22
as much as like, I think that's who they want it to be.
37:23
Like, you can't, you can't, like in good conscience, be like
37:28
we're gonna roll with us de Van Floorielle here. He has got to go
37:30
down the miners and and and try some things out. Yeah, And I
37:34
mean the Guardians have an outside shot at the division. I mean more than
37:38
an outside shot that I think they're closer to giving the Twins a run for
37:45
their money. Than people think, and the Louder could be a part of
37:47
that as well as if the Lauder brings camp with them, he should be
37:52
amongst, you know, when the top three or four favorites for the Rookie
37:57
of the Year and awards. So that would of Cleveland, and Cleveland's exactly
38:02
the type of team that I think would really push with that incentive because getting
38:07
that extra count pick in the first round it would be huge for a franchise
38:12
like the Guardians. Yeah, and they're team that has, you know,
38:15
a great starting pitching, they have a great bullpen, and if they can
38:19
just get some offense around that, then there's a lot to like. I
38:22
mean, if you're you're running out a top four of uh, Stephen Kwan,
38:28
Andre Jimenez, Jozi Ramirez and Chase the Louder, like, it's not
38:30
fantastic, but it's it's actually pretty decent. And so I think there's a
38:36
lot to like there in Cleveland. So anyway, from a fantasy perspective,
38:40
sports card perspective, whichever way I want to go, now is the time
38:44
to buy Chase the Louder because you know he's he's probably creeping into the top
38:47
ten prospects at this point in time. Oh yeah, absolutely, And I
38:53
realized almost all of our guys are left handed that we're going to talk about
38:58
here, because I'm going to pick left handed guy to talk about. And
39:01
this goes back to your point about seeing who's running and who's being allowed to
39:07
run, and how well they're running. Dalton Varshow, on top of already
39:13
looking great in the box in the spring so far for the Blue Jays,
39:16
is a perfect six for six on the paths, like he's looked great stealing
39:22
bags, and the competition he's faced has been it's been pretty solid at a
39:28
seven point six opponent quality on Baseball Reference that he has smashed the tune of
39:32
a three sixty four, four seventy six, four fifty five line. But
39:37
the best part is that in all those plate appearances he's got forty five played
39:44
appearances, he's only got four strikeouts and nine walks. And that's what I
39:49
want to see from a Dalton Varshow, who just was starting to get a
39:53
little wonky in terms of the strikeouts and his zone control in season in Toronto
40:00
when he put up that eighty five WRC plus that I've taken a couple of
40:05
shots on Dalton Varshow late just to try to find some storm bases upside.
40:09
And yeah, if Dalton Varshow can get his average honestly, it was two
40:15
twenty last year, if he can get it back up to like two forty
40:17
two fifty, and I mean, if we really want to get Greedy even
40:22
up to like two sixty. The way that he's swinging the bat right now,
40:25
this could be a guy that really outshoots his stole and base projections just
40:29
because he'll be on base more and he loves stealing. He's good at it
40:34
that I just want to see Dalton Varshow on base more and he should be
40:38
moving up the Toronto lineup as well as they haven't been able to kind of
40:43
backfill for the loss of like Matt Chapman and other players there. So I'm
40:46
Dalton Varsho is showing me all the things that you're looking for in terms of
40:52
like putting the ingredients together for a breakout or sleeper season late in drafts.
40:58
Yeah, you're absolutely right. The thing that I like about bar Show is
41:01
that he's one of the few that says I'm gonna do something in the off
41:05
season. He's gonna focus on something which he went out and said, I'm
41:07
going to stop trying to sell out for power and to focus on lime drives.
41:12
And this is like me as a pure baseball purist, so like,
41:14
I'm going to try to play the game the right way kind of thing.
41:15
Right, he's gonna he's gonna try to hit the ball hard and just all
41:19
over the field. And then he get out when I was spring training and
41:22
did it like that's exactly what he did. He's not selling out for the
41:25
power, which you know he's the last last two seasons, he's got to
41:29
combine forty seven homers, like he's he has power, but he's sacrificed that
41:34
batting average to do it. And to your point, then that means he's
41:37
not on base nearly as often as he could be to run. But you
41:40
know, I'm I'm I don't think I'd be shocked, like by a twenty
41:45
twenty Dalton Bar Show season in Toronto. I don't think that would be a
41:47
shock by any means. And if he's batting like fifth or sixth in that
41:52
lineup between the likes of Boba, Schett, Lad Guerrero, Justin Turner,
41:58
guys like that like that are just high average, high on base guys.
42:01
There's definitely some some RBI is waiting for him as well. So I think
42:06
there's there's a lot to like about him. And your point, he's going
42:09
late and late in drafts because I think people are like he he was one
42:14
of these guys that was like an up and coming fantasy like star because the
42:19
catcheraila ability with speed, like everybody wanted to have him. And then he
42:23
just took a little while to mature, which is very typical with guys that
42:27
are catchers. Even though he's not playing catcher anymore, maybe you know,
42:30
slight hope this year that he gets just a few games at catcher to fill
42:34
in here and there and gets the eligibility. That'd be fantastic but highly doubted.
42:37
Well maybe with Jansen getting hurt, it's possible out there in Toronto.
42:42
But I yeah, I think this is a really good call. I think
42:45
var show is gonna be fun to watch and let's let's kind of go from
42:49
there. Yeah. That I The other thing too, is that Dalton Varshow
42:53
has had a sub three hundred OBP last year, Like that's that's the big
42:59
number two. Like, honestly, if he gets that up to three ten.
43:01
I think thirty stolen bases is almost a given. So Dalton varshow outfielder
43:07
in Toronto. I I I'm feeling good about him. So Brow, who's
43:12
your next pick? Well, I think we're gonna have to go and I'm
43:15
gonna probably have to eat Crow on this one. To degree with some of
43:19
our discussions earlier in the offseason is, Uh, there's this guy down in
43:23
Texas. I hear he's pretty good. Whyatt Langford? Yeah? Why Att
43:30
Langford has been just alright this spring. He's got a whole forty five at
43:35
bats in which he has managed to hit five home runs and combined twenty nine
43:38
runs in RBI, hitting three seventy. He's not striking out that much as
43:45
you know, twenty five strikeout rates. He just and he just looks like
43:50
completely at home. And my whole concern from this offseason was like, he's
43:54
gonna need more seasoning than they're They're not gonna, you know, stick him
43:57
at h or anything. And like I was wrong. That's fine. He's
44:04
absolutely out there just raking and it's kind of one of those hard, hard
44:09
things that where hard things. But with Seeger getting kind of banged up and
44:17
where he's going to be. You know, this is a team that won
44:21
the World Series last year and they are going to try to come out gunning.
44:25
I think they're going to go there. I think they're going to go
44:28
there. And he just looks like the real deal. So my lengthor has
44:32
been fantastic the spring. I don't know what are your thoughts are? Are
44:37
are you a white length for Truther? I'm a recovering doubter at this point.
44:43
Yeah, I mean it just like every time I come back to his
44:45
page, it keeps creeping up and getting better and better. Steamer Hasm projected
44:51
as a guy who hasn't had any He's had twenty six played appearances above double
44:58
a. Steamer Hasm projected for a one to twenty five WRC plus Like,
45:04
I think he's one of the best peer hitters we've seen come along in a
45:08
long time. And there's speed to boot too that All of the projection systems
45:15
have him for mid teams stolen bases, and I think that will happen.
45:19
I'm even I think more bullish on the homers than what they have on the
45:27
projections. Who I mean on Fangrass. The top end is twenty four between
45:31
Zip Steamer are tied there. But I mean, I think Langford's gonna break
45:37
Camp and push thirty homers. Actually, I don't think he's actually gonna win
45:42
Worky of the Year because I think Evan Carter's just gonna be a superlative defender
45:45
and also just a great bat with a little more speed that he's going to
45:51
be a better all round player. But yeah, the future looks really bright
45:53
in Texas with Langford and Carter paired together. That Yeah, if you've got
46:00
any chance to buy Langford anywhere in terms of like dnasty Keeper situations, which
46:06
I can't imagine the price is reasonable at all. But there's not a price.
46:10
There's probably not a price I was gonna say, but it looks really
46:15
fantastic that I don't see a flaw in terms of what Langford's going to do
46:21
at the plate, and he's only twenty two. It's only going to get
46:22
better. It's almost it's like a right handed Rice Harper. Honestly. Yeah,
46:30
there's just a tec of a lot to watch them the highlights, you'll
46:32
see why it's gonna be a It's actually gonna be a really interesting year this
46:37
year in the al with a number of young bats that are coming up.
46:42
I feel like we say this over a year, but there's like just keeps
46:44
being this crop of younger, younger, more talented bats. The teams,
46:49
finally, I think, with some of the changes in the collective Marketing Agreement,
46:53
are willing to give him a chance. We're gone to the days of
46:57
Chris Bryant staying down in the minor leagues when he's you know, destroying everybody.
47:01
This is this is really exciting to see that the teams are giving these
47:06
young guys like the chance to play, actually putting the best team on the
47:10
field. Yeah, okay, well we're going to go back to the left
47:15
handed side of the batter's box. And I mean, we've got to talk
47:17
about O'Neal Cruz because we're a rasball podcast and maybe the biggest O'Neal Cruz hype
47:24
machine out there right now. And Gray, I don't think miss is an
47:30
opportunity to talk about him at all, And I don't see why not.
47:32
He's blasted seven homers in eleven spring training games. Now, he's struck out
47:38
eight times versus walking five times, stolen a base and just looks like he's
47:45
on a mission that like, I think this was coming to Fruition last year
47:51
and O'Neal Cruz was going to have a crazy breakout season. He looked really
47:54
great last spring, and then the games before he shattered that ankle diving into
48:00
home plate, and I think he is angry and he's on a mission to
48:06
prove that he's among the best players in the game, and especially just seeing
48:10
all the hype that like came La de la Cruz's way. I think in
48:15
division rival in Cincinnati that the Pirates, O'Neal Cruz is just looking to go
48:22
on a revenge tour and let everybody know who he is and her mind everybody
48:25
what types of skills he has in his bat and in his legs. That
48:30
I mean, I think it's another case where the home runs are light across
48:37
the board on the projections that the biggest projection is twenty six from Steamer.
48:43
I think the way that O'Neal Cruz has been looking, you're looking at thirty
48:45
plus. The question mark for me is how much he's gonna run coming off
48:50
of that ankle injury, which he said he's two hundred percent healed from.
48:53
So he's healed twice over but yeah, if he can chip in like twenty
49:00
twenty five steals, you're I mean, you're looking at like a first round
49:04
monster here. Yeah, the only question, And you're right, it seems
49:07
like there couldn't have been a better thing for O'Neal Cruz maybe to get hurt
49:12
and have that year to kind of like learn the game, be there in
49:15
the majors and just watch and learn and do that without the pressure. Like
49:21
I think that probably did him wonders that people just don't don't recognize because he
49:25
has all the talent in the world. The only question is his game reminds
49:31
me of I hate to say it, Bryce Harper, the injury risk, like