Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 45: Could Talarico Really Turn Texas Blue? With Gabby Birenbaum from The Texas Tribune

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Episode 45: Could Talarico Really Turn Texas Blue? With Gabby Birenbaum from The Texas Tribune · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

• 0:00
  [music]
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: I'm your host, Geoffrey Skelley, the Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: The 2026 midterms are just about 40 days away,
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: so we are really entering the homestretch of the campaign.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: Many states have already started to send out mail ballots or allow early voting,
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: so the election is really already underway.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: Over the final weeks of the campaign,
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: we're hoping to look at some of the biggest statewide races in
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: the most watched states in the country,
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: and appropriately,
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: because everything is bigger in Texas, we're going to start there.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994,
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: but the state has a pivotal U.S.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Senate race and an increasingly interesting gubernatorial contest at the top of
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: the November ballot.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: In the Senate battle,
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: Democratic State Representative James Talarico finds himself holding a small lead
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: in the polls over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: And in the race for governor,
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: three-term Republican Governor Greg Abbott is only a little bit ahead
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: of Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: Both races look remarkably competitive despite Texas' historical Republican lean.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: So, of course,
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: the many, many,
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: many millions of dollars questioned is could Texas really turn blue in November?
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: To help us examine these contests and that question,
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: I'm excited to welcome back Gabby Birenbaum,
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: the Washington correspondent for the Texas Tribune.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: She covers all the happenings with Texas's congressional delegation and
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: the Texas political scene as a whole.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: So with that, Gabby, welcome back to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, thanks for having me.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Good to be back.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_01: Well, hey, obviously, Texas has been, I think, a particularly...
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's always there's always a lot happening in Texas politics.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's obviously the second most populous state in the country.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot going on.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: But having two now, it appears two very competitive, very high profile statewide races.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: I was wondering how that just,
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: as someone who's been covering Texas politics for a little bit,
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: how I don't know, how does that feel?
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: Having Texas like a super high profile contest that really do seem potentially
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: In play, a little bit different from like a presidential, I guess, in that way.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean,
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: it kind of feels like Texas is a bit the center of
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: the political universe this cycle.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know, maybe Georgia could give us a run for our money.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: I guess we'll see what happens.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: competitive Senate,
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: competitive governor,
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: we've got a ton of competitive Congressional is pretty much all in South Texas.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: So that's going to be like ground zero for the Latino vote and
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: whether it swings back to Democrats.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: And if so, how big?
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, there's no shortage of interesting things going on.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of the political trends I think we're seeing play out across red states this cycle.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: Texas, it's all happening here too.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: Well, those sound like some good threads to pull at.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: So let's just jump in to the Senate race.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: So to start out with,
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: I just thought it'd be worth putting up the Texas polling average
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: from Decision Desk HQ,
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: and the fact that, yeah,
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: there's James Talarico actually in the lead in our polling average,
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: about 48.45 right now, so close race.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: No one is writing off Ken Paxton.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: But I was curious from your vantage point watching what's going on, There are a lot of factors.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like they've probably come together to create the circumstance.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: But I guess a good place to start would be a question about Latino voters.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: I think people are looking at that and the potential sort of swing back
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: among Latino voters or Democrats,
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: at least to some extent,
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: sort of the potential importance of that and what actually seems
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_01: to be happening there.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, this is going to be a critical group in Texas for the Senate race and beyond.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Texas has sort of been, like I mentioned, ground zero for trends in the Latino vote.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: So you saw if you just looked at and obviously it's a very diverse population,
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: the Latino population in Texas.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: But if you looked at the border counties,
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: right, and there's more Latino votes in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, et cetera.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: But if you look at the border and you looked at 2016,
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Hillary Clinton won all those counties by extreme margins.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: You look at 2020, it's starting to get closer.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: 2022, it's getting closer.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: 2024 was the year that Trump was able to win a lot of those counties.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: The populist,
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: the popular ones with a lot of people,
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: populist ones,
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: the rural ones,
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: there was definitely pushback to particularly border and immigration policies of
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: the Biden era.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And so the question became is, are these gains durable?
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: Are some of these now sort of priced into the Republican coalition or are these sort
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: of ancestral Democrats willing to go back?
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I think we've seen in polling there's definitely going to be a move
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: towards Democrats and towards Talarico.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: it's it's very likely that Talarico is going to outperform Kamala Harris
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: and even Colin Allred,
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: I would think,
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: in a lot of these counties will get,
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: I would imagine,
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: better Latino both turnout and,
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: you know, vote share in some of the cities I mentioned.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: The question is how much?
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Like, does this look like 2022?
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: Does this look like 2020?
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: Seems unlikely we're going to go all the way back to 2016 Hillary Clinton.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: But just how much that vote swings,
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think is going to be really determinative for who wins this seat.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_01: I would assume that at least part of this is a discussion about the economy,
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: because that seems to be the drive.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's true for all groups, to be clear, I think is a mainstay in terms of issues.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: But I didn't know if there was a particular aspect of it that seems to be,
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, more noble.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: We've been looking at some Latino polling here and nationally on sort of attitudes
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: about the economy and just the general consensus
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: that It's poor is how people are rating it.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: And so I was wondering how that that is playing in in Texas.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean,
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's similar to 2024 voters,
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: especially Latino voters are frustrated about the economy.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: I had the opportunity to observe some Latino focus groups of Texas voters recently,
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: and that came up a ton.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it was price of ground beef,
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: price of gas, like those were the two things people were bringing up over and over.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a frustration.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: And the question is,
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: Does this mean voters just stay home and say,
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: you know what, both parties can't fix the economy, forget it?
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Or do they specifically blame Trump and Republicans?
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's certainly the case that Democrats are trying to make messaging on
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: the Iran war, on tariffs, you know, on items like that.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess more broadly with, with,
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_01: just to your point about the swinging back,
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: we actually do, I should say, we do have a like zoom in a little here.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: We actually have enough polling in Texas that we built out a crosstab average for Latinos.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: And right now we do have Talarico leading by about 23 points among Latino voters.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: Now, to be clear,
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: there's,
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: there's some variation across polls,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: some Some have him up by like 35, some have him up by like 15.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously what actually happens there is very important,
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: the extent to which he ends up leading.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: But I guess to put that in context,
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: as you pointed out,
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: At least in the exit poll,
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: Kamala Harris was just narrowly ahead of President Trump in Texas
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: among Latino voters.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: And depending on the source, you could find that Trump either even slightly led.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: Sometimes there's discussions about who is included in sort of the Latino voter
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: because in a place like Texas,
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: especially might have some third and fourth generation folks
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: who may not even consider themselves that anymore.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: But anyway, lots of questions there.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_01: But the general point was things clearly were swinging toward Republicans
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: among Latino voters, and here they are swinging back.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess I was curious in terms of,
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: because I remember in the primary,
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_01: in the Democratic primary between Talarico and Representative Jasmine Crockett,
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: there was a lot of talk about Talarico's attempts to sort of appeal
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: to Latino voters.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: And I was curious,
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: I believe I saw a Spanish language ad recently from Talarico's campaign,
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: and I was sort of curious how that Is manifesting itself,
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: I guess, on the campaign trail.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: He did really well with Latinos in the primary.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: I think he very actively courted, you know, those voters.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: He did.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: He's done a few different things.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: He during the World Cup, he had a Spanish language ad.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: People down here might have seen it where he sort of put his name like a goal,
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: but it was like Talarico.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: So sort of memorable there.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: He's done.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: He's done some Spanish language stuff.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: He's got like a WhatsApp channel, people involved in his campaign, Spanish language material.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: So they're definitely pushing that.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: No question.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: He did, and specifically along the border,
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: he did a sort of Frontera tour earlier in the summer,
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: or I guess we're not in the summer anymore, but over the summer.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Barely, we're barely technically not in the summer anymore.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: September 24th as we're recording this.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's 90 degrees in Austin, so it's hard to remember that.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, fair, fair.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, I mean,
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: this is definitely a population he's actively courting,
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: as is Ken Paxton, I would say.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: But like you mentioned,
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: there's such variation in the polls within the crosstabs with Hispanic voters
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: that it's hard to know And like I mentioned,
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: this is like a very regionally different group.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: So like we saw,
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: for example,
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: in Senate District 9,
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: that was a state Senate seat and state Senate seats in Texas have a million people.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: So those are bigger than U.S. House seats.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: I was going to say they're more congressional districts
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: than there are state Senate districts in Texas.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: California, bizarrely for anyone.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: I guess just too many people.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's Tarrant County where Fort Worth is and some of the suburbs of Dallas.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: And that was a seat that Hispanic,
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: so that flipped from a Trump,
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: I want to say it was Trump plus 17 to the Democrat won that in
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: a special election plus 14.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: And although like caveats apply,
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: but specifically like precincts
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: with majority Hispanic population flipped like 30 points within that district.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: So you saw a massive shift and that's, you know, suburban Hispanic voters in the Dallas area.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: So is that applicable statewide?
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: You know, who knows?
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: But like,
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: that's a piece of data that we do have that shows that at least the beginning
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: of this year, like there was a massive swing in that population.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: that then I guess is an appropriate thing to sort of shift gears a little bit on
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: in terms of the Senate race is that,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: obviously for this race to be highly competitive,
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats have to do better among Latino voters,
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_01: but they also have to do better among a lot of suburban white voters,
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: especially in a lot of those metro areas.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess I was curious how that,
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think that,
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: for Democrats,
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think there was this view that, oh,
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: James Talarico,
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: he's like,
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: A religious guy who can break through with some voters in suburban Texas
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: who might be traditionally more Republican leaning.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I was curious about how that actually is playing out.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that gets into like theological debates about mainline Protestantism
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: and different forms of evangelical and all that, which is definitely its own thing.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: But I think, yeah, I mean,
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: these these populations,
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: Latino voters and suburban voters,
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: which there's overlap, right, are kind of in conversation with each other because.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: If you're Talarico, you presumably need to hit a certain benchmark with each one.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know,
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: if you do way better with Latinos,
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: maybe you don't need to do as well with suburban voters.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, they sort of it's a math problem, right, as all elections are.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, I mean,
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: so I was just actually in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs for about a week at
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: the beginning of the month doing some reporting on this.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: And I think there's there's a few things going on.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: I think these suburban counties have been getting bluer over time, particularly since 2016.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot of them in 2018.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: Beto O'Rourke posted like he did statewide,
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: but particularly in the suburbs, Democrats sort of recent high watermarks.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, for example,
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: he flipped Tarrant County, which I mentioned before, which is where Fort Worth is.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats since then have come close in Collin County, which is where Plano and Frisco are.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's north of Dallas.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: They're even getting closer in Denton County, which is way more Republican.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: So I think as an example,
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: Trump won in 2016,
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: won Denton County by 20 points,
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: whereas in 2024, he won it by about 13 points less than he won the state.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: So it's getting, you know, slightly to the left of the state now about where the state is.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that's just an example of how these suburbs have changed over time.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, I mean,
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: so if you're Talarico,
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: you want to find independents and swing voters in the suburbs.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: You also,
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: if you're him,
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: have to hope that there are Republicans who just stay home or skip the Senate race.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what I was doing some reporting on.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: I was talking to some Republicans who said, I just can't do it with Paxton.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a Republican.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I'm not going to vote for a Democrat.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's sort of anathema to who I am.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm going to skip that race.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: And I would ask them, well, what about your friends?
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: What do you hear from your friends?
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of them said,
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm hearing particularly women in churches said,
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'm hearing this from my church friends or I'm hearing this from my sort of circle
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: of suburban women who are successful and have businesses and,
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: you know, are sort of more of the establishment Bush, Cornyn type wing.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: And so the question becomes, what do those voters do?
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: And you're seeing hundreds of millions of dollars pour into Texas now to try
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: to get Republican based voters to turn out.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I think potentially targeting some of those establishment, you know, Corn and Bush types.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: But that's going to be the ballgame in the Dallas suburbs and the Houston suburbs.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I would also mention these are super diverse communities.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: You've got huge Indian American populations, huge Southeast Asian American populations.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: And so we can get into Bo French if we want, a candidate
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: for Railroad Commission who recently had a controversy with a racist post he made
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: about Indian American students at University of Texas.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: insofar as these things matter,
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: these are communities that exist in the suburbs, in these swing counties.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: and if it makes if this information makes its way to those voters,
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: I do think that matters.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, I would welcome how that could play into the race.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: I know it's gotten a lot of attention.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: You had, was it Karl Rove saying he was gonna actually vote for a Democrat in that race.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: This is for Railroad Commission,
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: which hasn't actually,
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: I believe,
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: had responsibility over the railroad since like the early 2000s or something.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: Now I think it's mostly like oil and gas kind of, yeah, in terms of its regulating like purview.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: But the Railroad Commission is a statewide election.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: I forget how many members it has, but is it three or five?
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: I forget.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: But Bo French beat an incumbent Republican in the Republican primary as
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: a very anti-establishment kind of candidate.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: And you mentioned that comedy made.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_01: I was curious how,
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: just for that,
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: just to give people some background on who Bo French is there
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: and what he's running for,
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_01: what Is that, is that, I mean, I know that was making national headlines.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: So I guess I was curious, how is that playing into the Senate conversation?
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess the larger political conversation in Texas as a whole.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think it's a question of like how many voters do hear about this stuff as
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: with anything that like happens online.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's not something that's like been on an ad,
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: for example,
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: but I think all of this is sort of in the stew of,
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: are you asking some reliable Republican voters who are,
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: like we're talking about more establishment,
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: maybe more Highly educated, higher earning.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: Are you asking them to pick the lesser of two evils?
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Are you taking them a bridge too far to where they're uncomfortable?
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: And I had some voters tell that to me about Bo French.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: I had them tell that to me about Ken Paxton,
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: that it's just you're sort of taking them to that someone described this to me as
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: the outer limit.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: You're pushing the outer limit of what some of these suburban women
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: and suburban voters are comfortable with.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's, I think, going to be going to be an open question.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: And Republicans, like I mentioned, are Going hard on their ads right now.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: hammering Talarico on culture war issues and boosting Paxton with some
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_00: of his AG work prosecuting sex trafficking.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I think,
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's an ad that,
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: you know, could appeal to suburban women and that might be the calculus there.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: And I actually had copied something from a piece that you published just the other day.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_01: Noting that the Senate Leadership Fund,
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: which is essentially the super PAC campaign arm for
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: a Republican Senate organization,
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: if you will, is the leading outside group for Republican Senate candidates.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: They've upped their ad buy to about 100 million.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: And now they're at 120, I want to say.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, wow.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: See, two days.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: There you go.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: Even more.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: Because I think you published that like two days ago.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: Two days ago, yeah.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, things are moving fast.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: So I guess it's a couple of things.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: One, I'm curious,
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: obviously Ken Paxton has had various scandal issues,
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_01: but is there anything in particular that seems, I mean,
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: but he's also been reelected multiple times despite voters knowing about this.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: And so I guess I'm curious what might be standing out the most right now and what,
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: I guess,
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: yeah, what sort of messages are Republicans using trying to appeal to these voters?
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: Because I think it's worth reminding people Yes,
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: Talarico is narrowly ahead in the polls,
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: but you have to think that in a state that is more Republican at a baseline,
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: that undecided voters are probably going to lean Republican to some extent.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: And so the more of those voters you get to show up and vote and cast a ballot,
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: probably the better it is for Paxton.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's what these ads are targeting, getting Republicans to turn out.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think when you talk to,
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: when I was observing these focus groups or when I've Talk to voters
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_00: who are more disillusioned with the Republican Party.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: The things that come up that I hear about Paxton is a,
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: you know, the allegations of corruption that have surrounded him for a long time.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_00: He had a,
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: securities fraud case that he eventually,
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: he never admitted guilt to that and he ended up having to pay some restitution.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, nothing, those charges were dropped.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: And then there was his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House over bribery allegations.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: And he was acquitted by the state Senate.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: So he's never sort of been found guilty of anything.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: But these have been in the stew of his political career for a long time.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then B, I heard about from voters, infidelity.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: His wife,
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: State Senator Angela Paxton,
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: who I'll add is very,
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: very well liked by Republicans, particularly in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: I was going to say, she's Dallas-Fort Worth, right?
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: They both are.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, she's Collin County.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they're from McKinney, which is north
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: of Dallas.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and critical swing County, Collin County.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: And she filed for divorce last summer and cited adultery in the petition there,
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: said they were divorcing on biblical grounds.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: So that's some of the stuff I've heard from voters.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_00: On the other hand, like you mentioned, Paxton has won statewide three different times.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: And he said on the campaign trail,
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_00: when people ask him about this,
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: he'll say, well, President Trump has been through some of the same stuff.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: He's been impeached.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: he won't say this explicitly,
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: but, you know, President Trump been accused of adultery, right?
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_00: And he's had no trouble winning Texas.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think that's, you know, a point worth making, too.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously,
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: all this money coming in,
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_01: I guess I was curious for your read on,
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_01: we know that Republicans are going to be spending more money in terms
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: of outside groups in these races.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: They have more.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: Than the Democratic groups do.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: At the same time, Talarico has vastly outraised Paxton.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: So I guess I was curious,
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: is that one of the things where it's gonna end up being a bit of a wash?
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: But like the fact that if the outside spending can roughly equal things out
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: for Paxton, that's probably good for him.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: But I guess I was curious what kind of effect that may or may not have.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's,
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: it's like money's important,
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_01: but always nailing down how money is important is sometimes a little,
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_01: it's a little hazy.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think Republicans,
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: you know, between the various PACs have dwarfed Talarico spending in September.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_00: So Talarico pretty much had the airwaves to himself over the summer.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: They're dwarfing him right now.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the goal is partially to drive Talarico's favorability down.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: Paxton's has been negative this whole cycle.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_00: Talarico's has been positive.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: I saw a poll the other day that now had Talarico in the negative.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: Some polls still have him with a positive favorability.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: So that's variable.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: But I think the goal is certainly to drive down his favorability rating and sort
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: of get both candidates essentially to be underwater and have voters make
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: the decision there.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: I think we're going to see, it's going to be really interesting.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: So this money is now, I mean,
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_00: we've seen polls, right,
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: in mid-September where these ads have been airing and the polls haven't moved a ton,
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: My question will be,
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: as we get into October,
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: And as you know, SLF has upped its ad buy here, do these polls move?
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: You know, obviously they want them.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: If you're the Paxton camp, if you're Republicans, you would like to see this investment work.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: You want to see Paxton go up a little bit in the polls.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think we're going to see here in a few weeks how much this money is moving the numbers.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean,
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: that makes sense that there could be a little bit of a delayed effect in terms of
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_01: the impact and showing up in polling that,
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_01: There are polls probably in the field right now that might better reflect
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: the potential impact of that.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean,
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: like you're showing here,
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: these polls from the certainly from,
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, these, a lot of these ads started airing in the beginning of September.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, you can see here, there's not been much change.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, not yet, at least.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: And so I thought it was, I thought it was gonna
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: be worth, oh, sorry, go ahead.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: I guess you've seen both of their ballot numbers go up a little bit if you're looking.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, part of that's, you know, people were paying more attention.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: Most polls now are of likely voters.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_01: I did think, though,
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: it was worth noting,
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: and I don't have a good polling average for the 2018 Senate race in Texas,
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: but what I did have,
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: or at least one using our approach,
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't want to compare them quite in that way,
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: but I thought it would be useful to show people
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: that I do think this race is notably different in the sense that Talarico has led
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: in most polls.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_01: And Beto O'Rourke hardly ever led a single poll.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: He led at maybe one.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: And this is up, actually, I forgot to fix the subtitle on this.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: I had this from an older thing.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: But this is basically through September polling.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: So Beto O'Rourke led in one poll in 2018 up through September.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: And Talarico has led in 25 to 30.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: Now, to be clear, sometimes that includes a one-point lead, which is not...
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_01: That is not a safe lead in any respect.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_01: But it does,
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: show that the polling in this race has been fundamentally different from
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: that 2018 race,
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: which stands out as the closest Democrats have come to sort of break it through in
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: a federal contest.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: And I think,
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: you can always take quibble with an individual poll,
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: but I think the trend is impossible to ignore because,
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is such a rare sight in Texas.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: This doesn't happen, right?
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, like you're saying, this race that O'Rourke lost by two and a half, Lead in one poll.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_00: The fact that Talarico has led the vast majority of polls, you don't see this in Texas.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: So we're in a weird scenario that hasn't happened.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: We're in a new environment here that we haven't seen.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's going to be an exciting finish here because, yeah, we're really treading new ground.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it's worth reminding people just right now,
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_01: In our forecast, this race is in our toss-up column.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_01: Talarico has a very small edge in terms of probability of victory,
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_01: but broadly speaking,
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: it's pretty close to 50-50 in terms of the probability of winning.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: But for Texas to be a toss-up, I can tell you that in 2018, Texas was never a toss-up.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_01: It was always at least sort of a lean R kind of race.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: So it does feel it is somewhat more uncharted water for modern times.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_01: And Lloyd Benson won re-election in 1988,
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_01: and that was the last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Texas.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: So it has been quite a while.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: So this is pretty remarkable.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_01: And it is definitely the case that Texas,
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: if you look at the broader Senate map,
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: if Democrats were able to flip it,
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: it would be a very key part of them potentially winning a majority.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: And so this is going to be...
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_01: As we all know, it's the reason we're talking about it here.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to be one of the big races.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: But another big race,
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: and one that I think people are beginning to tune into now,
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: or at least people who don't live in Texas and are elsewhere interested
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_01: in national politics, is the race for governor in Texas.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: And what is interesting about this is that you have Greg Abbott seeking a fourth term.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_01: So...
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: I believe Rick Perry served part of a fourth term,
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_01: or he served a fourth term,
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_01: but he had only served part of his first term, taking over for George W. Bush.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: So quite a lengthy time in office for Greg Abbott,
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_01: who was first elected in 2014,
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: reelected in 2018, reelected in 22, now seeking reelection in 26.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think he would be,
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: if things shifted in American politics a bit,
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_01: at least on the Republican side,
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure he's holding out hope of- Having an opportunity in presidential politics
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: or something to that effect,
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: because he's been talked about for years as a possible presidential candidate.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: But in our polling average right now,
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: he's only ahead by two points over Gina Hinojosa, who is the Democratic nominee.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: She is a state representative from the Austin area.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: And I think this is maybe surprised people a little bit.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Abbott is two, three points ahead recently.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_01: Talarico is two, three points ahead on the other side.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_01: So there is a little bit of a split in this race.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: There probably can't be too big of a split,
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_01: though I think the 2018 race,
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_01: Abbott did win,
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think by close to 10, even as Cruz was only winning by about two and a half.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_01: So you're talking about seven, eight point difference there.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: This time around,
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_01: at least in the polls right now,
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: you're talking about a five, six point difference in margin.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess a good place to start with the governor's race is who exactly is Gina Hinojosa?
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_01: People are not going to be familiar with her.
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_00: For sure.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: For sure.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_00: Like you mentioned, she's a state representative from the Austin area.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: She sort of made her name appear as an education advocate for public education.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_00: But she's from the Rio Grande Valley area.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: So she's from South Texas.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_00: She's Latina.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm sure she's hoping to do well down there.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's her sort of home base.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, I mean,
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_00: she's I'd emphasize she's been really nimble in her campaign of seizing
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: on these issues as they come up,
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: trying to tie Greg Abbott to data centers or to flat cameras.
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: She put out an ad today where she had someone who was at January 6th endorsing her
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_00: and saying, I'm voting for Gina Hinojosa.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_00: So they've moved really quickly on a lot of these things.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_00: Greg Abbott is incredibly well-funded, one of the best funded politicians in the country.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_00: He's massively out-raising and out-spending her.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_00: And he is a strong incumbent, I would say, across the entire Texas ticket, especially.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he's won re-election three times, as you mentioned.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think any time you're running for a fourth term, it can be difficult.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_00: There's a level of sort of incumbency fatigue.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_00: This is a year where we've seen a level of frustration with incumbents.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a year where the national environment looks positive for Democrats.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: So I think all these things are sort of in the mix here.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: I do think Gina Hinojosa has proven herself to be a stronger candidate than he's faced
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: in the past.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_00: He faced better work in 2022, I should say.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_00: So I mean,
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_00: that was obviously a well-run campaign,
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: but that was after his presidential when he had talked about,
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_00: we're going to take your guns.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: And that was a more red leading year.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: So it's sort of an interesting scenario where you have serious competitive campaigns
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_00: for Democrats,
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: both the Senate and the governor in the same year that hasn't necessarily happened
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: before.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_00: So I think there's a sort of synergy.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, the question is, how big can this gap be?
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think there's no doubt that Abbott's going to outrun Ken Paxton,
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_00: but exactly how much is the question.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: And one thing I would note there is that so in 2018,
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: Texas had straight ticket voting where you could go into the voting booth
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: and you could click Republican or Democrat and it would just,
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_00: fill out the rest of the ballot for you because that helped Democrats a lot in 2018.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_00: Although Beto O'Rourke didn't win, Democrats flipped 12 statehouse seats that year.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: They flipped Harris County judge.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans in the state legislature ended up getting rid of it,
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: getting rid of straight ticket voting.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_00: And so somewhat ironically,
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: actually,
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: this could be a situation where now it's,
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: you know, Quote,
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: unquote, easier for a voter to vote for both Abbott and Talarico, for example.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_00: people do actually now have to go down the ballot and make their selections rather
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: than being able to just pick a party at the top.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_00: So that could actually,
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_00: it's always like, how big can this Delta really be with state and federal races?
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_00: But for some voters,
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think that that does make it,
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_00: you know, the fact that you can't check that box anymore might matter.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: No, that's a really excellent point.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I actually had missed that.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, those kinds of, Ballot design things are always really interesting.
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_01: There were court cases about this in North Carolina back in the 2010s, for instance.
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: Michigan, there was battles because Republicans felt like it was helping Democrats a lot.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_01: They tried to get rid of it.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: You ended up seeing a constitutional amendment get passed in Michigan by
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_01: a Democrat-backed effort to put it on there and make it much harder to get rid
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: of moving forward because it's now constitutional,
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: not just a statutory legal aspect.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: But those kinds of things will matter to some voters in a race that's very close.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_01: You can imagine it being just easier for a Republican who's a little irritated.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_01: We shouldn't overstate it, but there are effects to these sort of ballot design things.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a really fascinating little wrinkle that could come into play,
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_01: obviously, in a very close race.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_01: I guess thinking about,
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_01: you mentioned data centers,
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_01: and I wanted to touch on this because obviously that and attitudes
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: about AI have become I've sort of gained a lot of steam here at the end,
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: and there's not quite as clear a partisan dimension to this,
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_01: at least yet, in American politics.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: It's not like Democrats have sort of taken one side of something and Republicans
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_01: the other, so we haven't really seen that develop yet.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: But obviously,
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_01: there's a pretty broad bipartisan distaste for data centers,
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_01: and a lot of things can go into that,
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_01: concerns about costs,
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_01: nimbyism, Concerns about AI more broadly and associations with data centers.
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_01: But I know that Abbott,
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_01: there was big news when he ran like an ad sort of specifically talking
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_01: about how he would sort of rein in or at least keep a close eye on data centers.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_01: But you noted that she seems to have tried to use that as a way in to attack him.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_00: And this is a big issue, particularly in Texas, because there are so many.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, years ago, the state legislature did pass an incentive for them.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_00: And Abbott has,
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: this year,
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_00: definitely,
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: you know, the polling on data centers is bad, like you mentioned, in both parties.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_00: Abbott has moved this year to put a moratorium on,
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_00: you know, a pause on new data center construction.
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_00: So this is an issue that, like, he is reacting to in real time.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a way that,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: Hinojosa certainly tried to sort of come in and make herself available as an option
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: to frustrated rural Republicans in particular.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, the rural counties, Texas has 254 counties.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_00: The vast majority are rural and not very populated, but there's tons of them.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: So add them all together.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_00: This is like a firewall for Republicans.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats do horribly in these counties.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the hope for Hinojosa is like, OK,
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: can I do two points,
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_00: three points better than the average Democrat in some of these places?
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, so she's really leaned in on data centers.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_01: Instead of losing 85, 15,
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_01: lose at 80,
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_01: 20 or something,
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_01: you know, and those, those margins can, can add up at the end of the day.
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, so, um, that's, that's, uh, a striking thing.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_01: I actually,
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_01: I did see,
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_01: I was looking before,
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_01: prepping for,
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: for a podcast and I,
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_01: I did see that there had been some, uh,
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_01: something about Abbott looking to,
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_01: to sort of stop data center construction in rural counties.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_01: It was like name checking rural counties specifically.
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_01: Um, which I think is interesting.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_01: Cause I, in, in, I,
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if it's,
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: it's just me or if other people might think of it,
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: you know, in my mind's eye, what I think of is like Northern Virginia.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like the excerpts of,
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: of like the DC Metro area being a place that are just full of these data centers.
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_01: And so I guess in Texas,
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_01: I imagine that that's also true in places like Collin County or a Denton County
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_01: or something that respect,
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: but it sounds like it's, it even stretches beyond sort of the metros, if you will.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's been, it's been, you know, hugely discussed in rural areas.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um, especially because like those communities already,
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of them deal with water challenges or that's like the main thing that,
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_00: they're talking about in their County commissions and in their city councils.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_00: Um, And then not just rurals,
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Meta is trying to build an enormous data center outside of El Paso.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_00: So that's been a huge issue there.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: So it's popped up in various communities.
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_00: And then Abilene has had a lot of data centers
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_00: that some Republicans have argued this has been a real good thing for
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: that community.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: There's some people in that community that have benefited.
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's created jobs and whatnot.
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_00: So there are sort of like differing opinions on it.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_00: But I would say, yeah, I mean, Abbott has definitely taken action this year on it.
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that,
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_00: that shows how big of a how big of an issue it must be coming up in polling.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_00: And then, yeah, I mean,
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_00: just to put a bow on this race, too,
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_00: I would say that, like,
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_00: compared to the Senate race,
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think, like I mentioned, Abbott is going to run ahead of Pakistan.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's been true in every poll we've seen.
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_00: And like I mentioned, super well funded, strong incumbents.
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, this is a much steeper curve for Hinojosa.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know,
• 33:56
  SPEAKER_00: like we've discussed,
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: she's she's definitely,
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_00: Run an active campaign,
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: been hopping on these issues and just trying to,
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think, drive wedges in the Republican coalition where she can.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I did see some coverage that suggested,
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 34:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think she has been known as a relatively progressive legislator,
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_01: but has sort of tried to shy away from that label a little bit more.
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_01: And embrace populist, maybe a tad more?
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, this came up this morning.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_00: So at TribFest, to plug Texas Tribune.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got a policy festival going on here.
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah,
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_00: she was interviewed this morning and was asked if she was a progressive
• 34:34
  SPEAKER_00: by my colleague.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_00: And she said, I'm a populist.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_00: Years ago, obviously, she might have described herself differently.
• 34:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think I saw something about her accepting an award as a rising progressive star or something.
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_00: But I think this is all part of the Democratic brand trying
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_00: to figure out Particularly in red states where, okay,
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_00: we're a permanent minority and,
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_00: we're doing our thing, but, oh,
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_00: if we're viable,
• 34:55
  SPEAKER_00: how do we sort of consider our branding and the party as a whole,
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_00: as they move further from 2020 and 2021 and that era of,
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: you know, where, where do we go from here?
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think that's, that's certainly playing out in Texas.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I guess just thinking about maybe,
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_01: maybe it's sort of in conjunction,
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_01: the Senate race and the governor's race is the two sort of biggest contest.
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_01: Is there sort of thought about the down ballot consequences of these races?
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like, are there some other state offices that Democrats can compete for?
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: Could there be consequences like we saw in 2018 where Democrats are able to make,
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: if they are able perhaps to do better or even win like the Senate race,
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_01: do better in some of the, in some state legislative districts?
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_01: I was curious sort of what the thought is there given that 2018 experience.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean,
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think as far as the statewides go, I mean,
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'd pay attention to railroad commissioner just because
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_00: the Republican nominee there is so controversial.
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_00: But I think the conventional and I've talked to some people who think there is
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_00: a world in which like Paxton wins, but the Democrat for railroad commissioner wins.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's like a little hard to imagine,
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_00: given how far down the ballot it is and how much lower profile it is
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_00: for most voters,
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_00: particularly like maybe,
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: you can imagine a Republican who's like,
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_00: all right, I'm going to skip Senate, but I'm still voting.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe if they're tuned in, they would skip railroad commission, too.
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_00: But how much attention is that race actually getting?
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I don't know.
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly down-ballot the congressionals.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_00: The competitive ones that we're tracking are all in South Texas,
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_00: so that's where the Latino vote and how much it swings can make a big difference.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_00: If Talarico and Hinojosa can do well in those districts,
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_00: that only helps those Democratic incumbents.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_00: In Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez and the Democratic candidates,
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_00: Bobby Pulido in Texas 15 or Johnny Garcia in Texas 35, who are new.
• 36:37
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, that setting a higher Democratic baseline helps them.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of those Democrats,
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_00: both the incumbents and the ones who are new,
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_00: either have or are trying to sort of run with a much more moderate centrist brand
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_00: than typically the party gets.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_00: And Cuellar and Gonzalez have a history of running ahead of whoever the top of
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_00: the Democratic ticket is.
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_00: They've done that before.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_00: So that matters.
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_00: The State House, I mean, those districts are drawn pretty well for Republicans, I would say.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_00: There's certainly an expectation that there's going to be flips.
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, the entire Texas House flipping is...
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I think a lot, a lot more difficult to see.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but some of these districts in the suburbs,
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_00: I would say,
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_00: especially the Dallas area suburbs,
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_00: um, pay attention to there's one of the San Antonio area.
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but yeah, I mean, a rising tide lifts all boats.
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're a Texas Democrat,
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_00: you're certainly looking to the top of the ticket for,
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: to set a high baseline that,
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: you know, the question is how, how big is the wave basically.
• 37:29
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess just to, you know, to, to sort of wrap up our conversation here.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_01: If Talarico were to win, I guess, what would that, I mean, again, this is a toss-up race.
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's close,
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_01: but the fact that we are talking about a toss-up Senate race
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_01: in Texas is pretty remarkable.
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess I was curious, what happened?
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_01: How should we shift or not shift our thinking about Texas if that actually does come to pass?
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think there would be two ways to look at it, yeah.
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, on one hand,
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_00: this is a really unique cycle where you have
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_00: a positive Democratic environment nationally that looks strong for Democrats.
• 38:13
  SPEAKER_00: You have people expressing frustration with the economy under Republican trifecta control.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_00: And you have a Republican nominee in Ken Paxton who is I think,
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_00: uniquely vulnerable and certainly,
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_00: that was an active question in the primary was like,
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: does he put this seat in danger?
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_00: So I think if Talarico wins,
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_00: on the one hand,
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_00: you could say this was like a perfect storm and Texas has still proven itself to be
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_00: a red state.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_00: I think that even immediately going into 2020,
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_00: you know, Republicans are still going to be the favorites.
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_00: And every and everything they're running,
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_00: there's no statewide seats in 2028, but 2030 looks like.
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_00: On the other hand,
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_00: especially I think as compared to Alaska,
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_00: where you had a Democrat win a statewide seat in Mary Peltola not that long ago,
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_00: or Ohio,
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_00: where Sherrod Brown was the senator for a long time,
• 38:58
  SPEAKER_00: that's an ancestrally blue state, even if it hasn't been for quite a while.
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_00: Texas is the beating heart of the conservative movement in the US.
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Texas has long been the stronghold.
• 39:13
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the fear for some Republicans is If Democrats just win one,
• 39:17
  SPEAKER_00: if they win one statewide race,
• 39:19
  SPEAKER_00: then you're going to see a flood,
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_00: and this was the Republican fear,
• 39:22
  SPEAKER_00: a flood of Democratic investment in the state because that's 40 electoral votes in
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_00: a presidential.
• 39:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's the second biggest state,
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_00: like you mentioned up top, it's the second biggest state in the country.
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_00: And so if Democrats get a whiff that this is a state that they can put in play in
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_00: a presidential, for example, you're going to see way more Democratic investment.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_00: You might see,
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_00: if you have someone like a James Talarico statewide elected,
• 39:45
  SPEAKER_00: Someone who you can have more of a top down leadership structure and
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_00: who can maybe like whip up some of the ground game and party infrastructure
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_00: into shape because Republicans have long,
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_00: just generally with ground game,
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans have had an advantage there in Texas, just given it's a red state.
• 40:00
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think the fear is that for Republicans,
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_00: if this happens once,
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_00: you're opening the door to just way more competitive elections in a state
• 40:08
  SPEAKER_00: that Republicans can't afford to lose in a presidential.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that is a very striking way to sort of finish thinking about Texas and
• 40:19
  SPEAKER_01: the potential consequences of this.
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, Ken Paxton could very well end up winning and holding the seat for Republicans.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_01: But James Talarico has a real chance,
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_01: and that is different from Very different from what we're used to when we're talking
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_01: about Texas in federal elections.
• 40:38
  SPEAKER_01: So, Gabby Birenbaum, do you want to say something about The Texas Tribune real quick?
• 40:44
  SPEAKER_01: Since you write for it?
• 40:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, come check out our website.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_00: We've got a great politics team.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to be here through the election and beyond,
• 40:52
  SPEAKER_00: obviously,
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: and then my colleagues will cover the legislature and I'll be covering
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_00: the delegation in D.C.
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, texastribune.org.
• 40:58
  SPEAKER_00: And like I mentioned, we've got TribFest going on this weekend.
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know when you're publishing, but...
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_00: We stream all those panels.
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_00: So there hopefully should be some, some exciting news.
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_01: The goal is to try to publish this on Friday.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_01: So today's Thursday.
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_00: It'll still be going on.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: We've got Talarico on Friday.
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_00: We've got Karl Rove on Saturday.
• 41:17
  SPEAKER_00: So there should be some interesting stuff.
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Gabby, I really appreciate you taking the time to talk to me.
• 41:23
  SPEAKER_01: I hope you have a lot of fun at Austin.
• 41:25
  SPEAKER_01: And again, this is Gabby Birenbaum, the Washington correspondent for the Texas Tribune.
• 41:31
  SPEAKER_01: I also want to thank Stephen Stover and Eric Cunningham for their help with this episode.
• 41:36
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Geoffrey Skelley, the Chief Elections Analyst here at Decision Desk HQ.
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_01: And again, Gabby, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me.
• 41:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, thanks for having me.