Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | His and Herz | MLB & WNBA & NFL | 9/21/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | His and Herz | MLB & WNBA & NFL | 9/21/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:17
Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
0:20
Speaker 1: in your.
0:20
Speaker 2: Chest Black coffee on the felt, man.
0:24
Speaker 3: You look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust
0:28
Speaker 3: in your head Now you stare at the chips like
0:32
Speaker 3: they made you this mad But don't you go quiet,
0:36
Speaker 3: don't you fade from the floor Your name still means
0:39
Speaker 3: something to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
0:45
Speaker 4: Look at me now Hold.
0:50
Speaker 2: On, hold on Not.
0:54
Speaker 4: Tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull
1:04
Speaker 4: you out That fella fights hard But it don't get
1:12
Speaker 4: the crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
1:28
Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports. Monday,
1:32
Speaker 2: September 21st. 3-3 day on the show yesterday. A slight
1:37
Speaker 2: losing day. I'm not happy about it, obviously. Baseball looked
1:42
Speaker 2: like it was getting off on the right foot with
1:44
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay scoring four runs in the first inning and
1:46
Speaker 2: then pretty much didn't score after that, and the game
1:50
Speaker 2: wound up being a 5-1 final. I mean, there weren't
1:53
Speaker 2: really enough hits in the game to really say that
1:56
Speaker 2: that game should have gone over. I mean, it was
1:58
Speaker 2: trending in the right direction, obviously, early in the game,
2:00
Speaker 2: and everything fell apart. It would have been a winner
2:03
Speaker 2: if you played the first five over, but whatever. That
2:08
Speaker 2: was bad. Red Sox offense could get nothing done, and
2:11
Speaker 2: they clinched a playoff spot By losing. Isn't that awesome?
2:15
Speaker 2: Because the other teams that were fighting them for playoff positioning,
2:20
Speaker 2: I think Houston was one of them. Like, Houston, I think,
2:23
Speaker 2: dropped out of the wild card race by losing yesterday.
2:26
Speaker 2: So thank you to Garrett's Braves, I guess, for that.
2:29
Speaker 2: But Houston can still win their division. It's very, very weird. Very,
2:34
Speaker 2: very weird scenario. We did get the other two baseball
2:37
Speaker 2: plays right. The under in the first five with Minnesota
2:40
Speaker 2: Anaheim that I added on the fly. That was good.
2:44
Speaker 2: Dean Creamer didn't give up any runs through that stretch,
2:47
Speaker 2: and then Ryan Johnson gave up three over that span.
2:51
Speaker 2: He wasn't great, but it was good enough between the
2:53
Speaker 2: two of them to get that done. It was 3-0
2:55
Speaker 2: at the end of five. I believe the full game landed, like,
2:59
Speaker 2: right on the number. I think it was, like, an
3:02
Speaker 2: 8-0 final. I don't remember exactly, but first five, and
3:05
Speaker 2: then Arizona... Yeah, I mean, that looked dead. They were
3:09
Speaker 2: down 4-1 in the bottom of the fifth, and they
3:11
Speaker 2: scored five runs in the bottom of the fifth. Thank
3:16
Speaker 2: you to Arizona. Yeah, we got kind of lucky on
3:18
Speaker 2: that one, I suppose. But they wound up winning the
3:20
Speaker 2: full game, and the Yankees never scored again in the game.
3:23
Speaker 2: So really weird game, but whatever. That's a crazy way
3:27
Speaker 2: to win one, but I'll take one that gives us luck.
3:30
Speaker 2: Why not? Uh, the WNBA game was awful Toronto. I mean,
3:35
Speaker 2: they had a pitiful second half. I don't know what
3:37
Speaker 2: to tell you, man. Uh, they, they were hanging around
3:40
Speaker 2: in that game into the third quarter and it was
3:41
Speaker 2: looking okay. Like middle of the third quarter. I'm pretty
3:45
Speaker 2: sure the score was like, okay, they're down by a
3:48
Speaker 2: little bit more than the spread right now. It's just
3:49
Speaker 2: backdoor this thing. You know what I mean? The Liberty
3:52
Speaker 2: don't need to continue pushing it here. And then I
3:54
Speaker 2: don't know what happened. They fell apart and they lost
3:56
Speaker 2: by like 30 something points. I have no idea what
3:59
Speaker 2: happened in that game. uh football miami was bad they
4:04
Speaker 2: didn't get there and all the other big favorites lost
4:07
Speaker 2: out right so isn't that awesome basically if you wanted
4:10
Speaker 2: to advance and survivor this week you pretty much had
4:12
Speaker 2: to do something completely insane or you had to pick
4:15
Speaker 2: san francisco that was it and san francisco was one
4:19
Speaker 2: of the most heavily picked teams but basically the people
4:21
Speaker 2: that survive were pretty much all people that use san
4:24
Speaker 2: francisco and were not smart about uh future value pretty much. It's,
4:29
Speaker 2: I hate survivor. It's so fucking dumb. Um, whatever. And
4:33
Speaker 2: then we did get the, uh, Indianapolis game right in
4:36
Speaker 2: the night game. And I do not like, uh, the
4:40
Speaker 2: play calling by Steichen. Uh, when it got, uh, well,
4:43
Speaker 2: it got into overtime first of all, which, you know,
4:46
Speaker 2: you're sitting there cause I had fantasy, uh, going on
4:48
Speaker 2: during that game as well. And I went into that
4:50
Speaker 2: game beating my opponent. Who's the commissioner of the league.
4:55
Speaker 2: One of my friends from high school, um, I was
4:58
Speaker 2: beating him by 14, and he had Rashi Rice left,
5:01
Speaker 2: and my team was done for the week. So I'm like, okay,
5:04
Speaker 2: I have to dodge a good game from Rice here.
5:08
Speaker 2: This is close to 50-50. I think going into that game,
5:11
Speaker 2: I was probably about a 60% favorite in reality to
5:15
Speaker 2: win that, and it got really close. And the last
5:18
Speaker 2: thing you want in a situation like that is to
5:20
Speaker 2: have that game go into overtime because then it's just,
5:23
Speaker 2: more chances for Rice to put up points, so that
5:25
Speaker 2: is not good. But luckily for me, Kansas City was
5:28
Speaker 2: running the football constantly. Indy, their defense is real bad, dude.
5:34
Speaker 2: They can't stop the run, so I'm pretty sure Kenneth
5:36
Speaker 2: Walker had another pretty good game, although I'm not even
5:39
Speaker 2: sure if he got a touchdown, but they were running
5:41
Speaker 2: him a lot in that overtime. But the thing was,
5:46
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are not stupid, so you know, they did
5:49
Speaker 2: this during that Super Bowl, I think it's San Francisco,
5:51
Speaker 2: they know that because of the overtime situation now where
5:55
Speaker 2: both teams get a chance to match each other, right?
5:59
Speaker 2: The Chiefs know that the way to win in overtime
6:01
Speaker 2: now is you get the ball first and you try
6:03
Speaker 2: to take as much time off the clock as possible.
6:06
Speaker 2: You try to take like all the time off of
6:09
Speaker 2: the clock while still maintaining possession of the football. So
6:12
Speaker 2: you don't want to march down the field quickly, you
6:15
Speaker 2: know what I mean? Unless you really trust your defense.
6:17
Speaker 2: You want to run the ball actually a lot and
6:20
Speaker 2: that is what they're doing. So I think that's part
6:22
Speaker 2: of the reason why But my issue with it was
6:26
Speaker 2: that I think Indianapolis should have gone for that fourth
6:29
Speaker 2: down in overtime. So it looked like Kansas City was
6:33
Speaker 2: going to get a touchdown. Kansas City was marching down
6:35
Speaker 2: the field, and that's the last thing I wanted, of course,
6:37
Speaker 2: because if they get a touchdown there, they're going to
6:39
Speaker 2: be up seven, and then Indy has to match that
6:42
Speaker 2: to get a touchdown. If they don't, then we're actually
6:45
Speaker 2: going to lose the plus six and a half, which,
6:47
Speaker 2: by the way, there was never a better number than that.
6:49
Speaker 2: You can never get seven on Indy. Six and a half,
6:51
Speaker 2: six was the best you could get on it. But luckily,
6:55
Speaker 2: Indianapolis' defense held at the one time they needed to,
6:59
Speaker 2: for that at least, held Kansas City to the field goal.
7:02
Speaker 2: Then Indy drove down the field, and it got down
7:04
Speaker 2: to a fourth, and I think it was fourth and eight,
7:07
Speaker 2: I guess. I mean, it's a long fourth down, sure,
7:10
Speaker 2: in Kansas City territory. And I'm like, you got to
7:14
Speaker 2: just go for it, man. You cannot give Kansas City
7:16
Speaker 2: the ball back, although that was me wanting to cover
7:19
Speaker 2: the spread, of course. And me not wanting Rice to
7:22
Speaker 2: get any more opportunities. I'm like, please do not kick
7:24
Speaker 2: the field goal. And they marched the offense onto the field.
7:28
Speaker 2: I'm like, yes, Steichen, he's got the balls. He's going
7:31
Speaker 2: for it. You're in a hostile environment on the road.
7:34
Speaker 2: Just go for the win right now. You're not going
7:36
Speaker 2: to win if you let Kansas City get the ball
7:38
Speaker 2: back with three minutes left. They're going to score, and
7:41
Speaker 2: there's going to be no time left. Your defense isn't
7:43
Speaker 2: good enough. No, he did that to try to get
7:46
Speaker 2: them to jump off sides, which would have given them
7:49
Speaker 2: a more makeable fourth down. That didn't happen. Then he
7:52
Speaker 2: breathes the field goal unit out. I'm like, come on, man.
7:56
Speaker 2: So they tie it with a field goal, and then
7:57
Speaker 2: you know Kansas City's going to march down the field
8:00
Speaker 2: to score. But luckily at that point, they're going to
8:02
Speaker 2: get a field goal because you don't need a touchdown
8:04
Speaker 2: anymore at that point, the way the overtime rules work.
8:07
Speaker 2: Each team now gets a shot to try to match
8:10
Speaker 2: each other with one drive each, and then if it's
8:13
Speaker 2: tied after that, and there's still time left on the clock,
8:16
Speaker 2: then the next score wins the game. So a field
8:18
Speaker 2: goal wins at that point. Or if time runs out,
8:22
Speaker 2: it could be a tie. But I'm like, okay, come on, man.
8:24
Speaker 2: But luckily, yeah, like they didn't really use Rice anymore.
8:27
Speaker 2: It was more Walker. They got into field goal range.
8:30
Speaker 2: Kansas City won with a field goal. We got the
8:33
Speaker 2: play right, although unfortunately we did not get the money
8:36
Speaker 2: line part of it. Like I always recommend sprinkling on
8:38
Speaker 2: the money line. And Rice did not hit 14 points.
8:42
Speaker 2: He hit like 10-something. I think he got nothing in overtime.
8:46
Speaker 2: So I wound up winning my fantasy league, at least.
8:49
Speaker 2: Not a good weekend overall, though. Just, you know, pretty
8:54
Speaker 2: much treading water over the weekend and then losing against
8:56
Speaker 2: Survivor with a chance to win at millions of dollars
8:59
Speaker 2: in those pools. Want to make it deeper than week
9:02
Speaker 2: fucking two, man. Thank you to the fucking Buccaneers. And
9:06
Speaker 2: if you didn't see how that game ended, well... Yeah,
9:09
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers were winning the game by double digits. They
9:12
Speaker 2: blew the lead, and then they were losing by four,
9:15
Speaker 2: but marching down the field in the final two minutes,
9:17
Speaker 2: and you know what Tampa did basically every game early
9:21
Speaker 2: in the season last year. They were winning games in
9:25
Speaker 2: the final two minutes. They were down one score, and
9:27
Speaker 2: they were winning, winning, winning. With those final drives, I'm like, okay,
9:29
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield is used to this. They're going to win.
9:32
Speaker 2: They're driving down the field. They're basically on the verge
9:36
Speaker 2: of the red zone, I'm like, okay, they're definitely going
9:38
Speaker 2: to win. They're going to score a touchdown here. We're
9:40
Speaker 2: going to be all right. Then what happens? Oh, yeah,
9:42
Speaker 2: here comes lightning. Here's a two-hour lightning and rain delay. Sorry, guys.
9:47
Speaker 2: So that kills all Tampa Bay's momentum. Then finally the
9:51
Speaker 2: game resumes, and then what happens? Tampa gets into a–
9:54
Speaker 2: I think it was like a second and three Tampa had.
9:58
Speaker 2: It's like, yeah, they're going to get a touchdown here.
10:00
Speaker 2: Second and three, you're obviously going to get the first down.
10:02
Speaker 2: You're going to keep marching, even if Cleveland's defense is
10:05
Speaker 2: actually not terrible. But, yeah, they're going to do it.
10:09
Speaker 2: Then what happens? Holding call at the worst possible time.
10:12
Speaker 2: You know that there's holding on every play in the NFL,
10:15
Speaker 2: and it was not like one of those blatant calls
10:17
Speaker 2: that you have to make the call– It seemed like
10:20
Speaker 2: the game was just basically rigged in a certain way.
10:24
Speaker 2: Holding is such a subjective call, unless it's completely blatant.
10:28
Speaker 2: You could theoretically call it on literally any play in
10:31
Speaker 2: the NFL, and they call it right then, pushing them
10:33
Speaker 2: back to a 13-yard situation instead of a three-yard situation,
10:39
Speaker 2: and then they can't get it done. It's ridiculous, dude.
10:42
Speaker 2: Completely ridiculous. You cannot have a holding call skew the
10:46
Speaker 2: game like that. I'm not happy about that. Dirty Sock,
10:50
Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. All right, let's do today.
10:52
Speaker 2: We have almost no action today. Three baseball games, and
10:57
Speaker 2: there's some interesting pitching going on in some of these
11:01
Speaker 2: games here. Toronto is playing Baltimore. It's interesting there are
11:05
Speaker 2: only three baseball games, yet one of the teams in
11:07
Speaker 2: the night game last night is playing, which is Baltimore.
11:11
Speaker 2: But they lost three to nothing yesterday. They got swept
11:14
Speaker 2: and they're staying at home. And usually I do talk
11:16
Speaker 2: about how when a team is coming off a sweep,
11:19
Speaker 2: they might be in a bounce back spot. Like if
11:21
Speaker 2: they got swept, I mean, if a team got shut
11:23
Speaker 2: out at home, a lot of times they will bounce
11:25
Speaker 2: back after that. It is a quicker turnaround time for Baltimore,
11:28
Speaker 2: but Toronto's having to fly in from Texas. So they
11:32
Speaker 2: are having to travel. So Baltimore, I mean, the spot
11:36
Speaker 2: could be worse for them, even though, yes, they did
11:38
Speaker 2: play in the night game. Baltimore might be a little
11:41
Speaker 2: extra motivated here because we're talking about, I believe neither
11:44
Speaker 2: of these teams is eliminated yet. And these teams, their
11:49
Speaker 2: only chance to get in is getting the last wild
11:51
Speaker 2: card spot at this point. Let me make sure of that, actually.
11:54
Speaker 2: I believe I'm right about that, but hold on. MLB standings,
12:02
Speaker 2: let me see. Yes, neither of these teams is eliminated,
12:06
Speaker 2: but all these teams are pretty much fighting for this
12:10
Speaker 2: single wildcard spot now because the Yankees and the Red Sox,
12:14
Speaker 2: as of yesterday, the Red Sox have also clinched one
12:17
Speaker 2: of those spots. So there's only one wildcard spot available
12:21
Speaker 2: in the AL now, and it's Toronto, Baltimore, Houston, Texas, Cleveland,
12:28
Speaker 2: and the White Sox basically are all fighting for For essentially,
12:34
Speaker 2: they're fighting for three spots, but Toronto and Baltimore, the
12:37
Speaker 2: only way they can get in is by getting a
12:38
Speaker 2: wild card. Those other teams can win their own divisions.
12:42
Speaker 2: All right. And possibly if they don't, they could still
12:44
Speaker 2: get a wild card. So it's kind of a crazy
12:47
Speaker 2: situation in the AL. The NL is more clear cut
12:50
Speaker 2: than that. Anyway, bullpen-wise, these are both okay bullpens. Toronto
12:55
Speaker 2: used three, four, no, excuse me, way more than that.
12:58
Speaker 2: It was a bullpen game yesterday. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Toronto
13:01
Speaker 2: used six bullpen arms yesterday. So their bullpen's not in
13:05
Speaker 2: great shape here. Baltimore only used three. Baltimore's ranked 11th.
13:10
Speaker 2: Toronto's 17th out of the bullpen, although Toronto actually has
13:13
Speaker 2: the better ERA. But Baltimore might have a slight bullpen
13:16
Speaker 2: edge coming into this one just because of the rest scenario.
13:21
Speaker 2: Starting pitching, I think, does favor Toronto here with Treya
13:24
Speaker 2: Savage coming off the injured list here, which he's been injured,
13:29
Speaker 2: I think, multiple times this year. But most recently, he
13:32
Speaker 2: got injured in early August. He's been out for over
13:35
Speaker 2: a month. Now, he's a young guy, so the question is,
13:38
Speaker 2: how is he going to respond to this? Because usually
13:40
Speaker 2: I like veteran pitchers when they come back from injury.
13:43
Speaker 2: I think they tend to bounce back and they pitch well.
13:46
Speaker 2: Savage is a solid pitcher, but he wasn't pitching well
13:49
Speaker 2: in the month of July, really, although his strikeout rate
13:52
Speaker 2: was still really good, but he was putting a lot
13:54
Speaker 2: of guys on base via the walk before he went down.
13:57
Speaker 2: He is definitely a talented pitcher, though, and he does
14:00
Speaker 2: have some experience, obviously. I mean, he pitched in the
14:02
Speaker 2: World Series last year, so he's not as inexperienced as
14:07
Speaker 2: really anybody that's also his age. Will he pitch well here? Yeah,
14:13
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm leaning towards yes. I mean, I think
14:15
Speaker 2: he probably will. I did not look and see what
14:17
Speaker 2: he did in the minors in his rehab because we
14:20
Speaker 2: kind of just know what he is at this point.
14:22
Speaker 2: His numbers against Baltimore are good. It's not a huge sample,
14:25
Speaker 2: 26 at-bats, 154 average allowed, 536 OPS, 4-4 strikeout walk ratio.
14:32
Speaker 2: So the ratio's bad, but everything else is all right.
14:34
Speaker 2: And Yosavage was better on the road this year, 3.14
14:36
Speaker 2: road ERA. overall he had a really low hit rate
14:42
Speaker 2: on the season so far his strikeout rate was pretty
14:44
Speaker 2: good and his walk rate was too high so that's
14:46
Speaker 2: what you're gonna get out of him basically he's very
14:48
Speaker 2: hard to hit but he's wild uh two strikeout walk
14:52
Speaker 2: ratio is uh not very good he's got to get
14:55
Speaker 2: these walks down dude that's that's the one issue that
14:58
Speaker 2: he's got 8.7 case per night it's also not as
15:01
Speaker 2: good as what he Posted last year, but last year
15:04
Speaker 2: it was a smaller sample size. So do what you
15:07
Speaker 2: want with all that. I lean more towards him pitching
15:09
Speaker 2: well here, though. Shane Boz is getting the start for Baltimore.
15:13
Speaker 2: He's been okay. 4.11 ERA, 1.35 whip. He is better
15:18
Speaker 2: at home. 3.92 home ERA, except that his opponent batting
15:22
Speaker 2: average is actually worse at home, and it's 270, which
15:25
Speaker 2: isn't really that good. Boz has kind of fallen out
15:28
Speaker 2: of form again. His last couple starts, not very good.
15:31
Speaker 2: And they were against Cleveland and the Mets, which is
15:33
Speaker 2: not a good sign. Those are not good offenses. So Boz,
15:37
Speaker 2: I mean, he was pitching well over the past month
15:41
Speaker 2: or so, sort of, but recently not really as good.
15:44
Speaker 2: He does have a high hit rate on the season,
15:46
Speaker 2: which is not really that great. His walk rate's not
15:49
Speaker 2: really that good either. And really neither is his strikeout rate. 2.5
15:54
Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, very, very mediocre. or at best, 7.9
16:00
Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. Yeah, I mean, Boz, I mean, his
16:03
Speaker 2: overall numbers do look mediocre, like his ERA and his whip,
16:07
Speaker 2: but maybe he's not quite as good as that. However,
16:10
Speaker 2: he is facing a very weak Toronto offense here. They
16:13
Speaker 2: have not done well against him. 73 at-bats, 219 average,
16:17
Speaker 2: 547 OPS, 13-4 strikeout walk ratio. And by the way,
16:23
Speaker 2: these are not particularly good offenses. Baltimore, 23. Toronto 27.
16:28
Speaker 2: I like the under in this game. The total is low.
16:31
Speaker 2: I think you have at least capable bullpens. I mean,
16:35
Speaker 2: if you really wanted to avoid Toronto's because they used
16:38
Speaker 2: guys yesterday in a bullpen game, maybe first five, but
16:42
Speaker 2: the full game total seven and a half, you know?
16:44
Speaker 2: So usually when it's seven and a half, I just
16:46
Speaker 2: extend it to the full game because you get the
16:49
Speaker 2: key number there. You get the hook on it. The
16:51
Speaker 2: bullpens might be good enough to finish it off here.
16:54
Speaker 2: Money's coming in on the over though. 67% of tickets,
16:58
Speaker 2: 91% of the cash on the over. But, yeah, I
17:02
Speaker 2: don't see it that way. I like the under. That is,
17:05
Speaker 2: I think, probably the best way to really approach this
17:07
Speaker 2: game if you're really going to play it, which I
17:09
Speaker 2: will not. But, yeah, I think that's pretty much what
17:13
Speaker 2: I got on that one. I felt like I was
17:17
Speaker 2: going to say one other thing about that, but maybe
17:19
Speaker 2: I didn't have anything else in mind. As far as
17:22
Speaker 2: the side, it's basically a pick-em price. Toronto's 65% of tickets,
17:26
Speaker 2: 91% of the cash on Baltimore, though, so the money
17:30
Speaker 2: is indicating on Baltimore, even though they are coming off
17:32
Speaker 2: the night game. Baltimore does kind of need the game
17:36
Speaker 2: more in a way. Well, both teams need the game.
17:38
Speaker 2: That's kind of the problem. Like, Baltimore's even more desperate
17:41
Speaker 2: than Toronto, but you're looking at two desperate teams right now, so...
17:46
Speaker 2: I don't really have an angle on the side here
17:48
Speaker 2: at all. I think the under, again, is the way
17:52
Speaker 2: that I'd play that game. All right. The Washington-Detroit game here.
17:57
Speaker 2: This is... Yeah, this game, it's like you got to
18:01
Speaker 2: figure out what are you going to get out of
18:02
Speaker 2: these pitchers here. Which one of them is better? Detroit
18:06
Speaker 2: is returning home from a road trip, so usually that
18:09
Speaker 2: is a negative spot. They played Toronto and Chicago, the
18:12
Speaker 2: White Sox. Detroit's dead, dude. I mean... I don't know
18:16
Speaker 2: if they're eliminated, but they're 10 games below 500. They
18:19
Speaker 2: couldn't get the job done against the white socks. Could
18:21
Speaker 2: not even play spoiler lost that series returning home. Not
18:26
Speaker 2: a good spot for Detroit. Uh, could be a spot
18:28
Speaker 2: where they get caught. Uh, they get distracted, whatever the
18:31
Speaker 2: case may be coming off series that meant more to them.
18:35
Speaker 2: I don't see them really showing up necessarily for Washington.
18:37
Speaker 2: The only reason why they might show up is to
18:40
Speaker 2: rally around their pitcher that they're going to try out here. Uh,
18:44
Speaker 2: Both pitchers in this game are real unknowns here, man.
18:47
Speaker 2: Washington is coming into this game after winning in St.
18:51
Speaker 2: Louis two out of three. They're traveling in from St.
18:54
Speaker 1: Louis.
18:54
Speaker 2: It's kind of an easy travel spot for Washington, not
18:56
Speaker 2: much of a travel spot there. To go from St.
18:59
Speaker 2: Louis to Detroit, not too bad. Washington, we know their
19:03
Speaker 2: bullpen is very bad, though. They used three guys out
19:06
Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday, but they're definitely the worst bullpen here.
19:10
Speaker 2: Detroit used three as well. Detroit is number 14 in bullpen. Washington,
19:15
Speaker 2: number 26. Yeah, we know who's the better bullpen here.
19:18
Speaker 2: Washington is the better offense, number three. Detroit is where? 16th,
19:24
Speaker 2: tied with Texas. All right. Washington's going with DJ Herz.
19:30
Speaker 2: Not his, hers, which is the name of the show here.
19:34
Speaker 2: Hers actually made 19 starts in 2024. He's only 25
19:37
Speaker 2: years old now. He is a lefty. He's a 6'2,
19:39
Speaker 2: 197-pound lefty. In 2024, he was not bad. He had
19:41
Speaker 2: a 4.165. Fairly difficult to hit, and he has good
20:00
Speaker 2: strikeout stuff. And what he does is he's not that
20:04
Speaker 2: hard of a thrower. He throws, like, low to mid-90s fastball.
20:07
Speaker 2: But he's got, like, curve slider, and his best pitch
20:10
Speaker 2: is a changeup. He has, like, this nasty changeup that
20:14
Speaker 2: has a lot of movement on it, and it's very deceptive.
20:17
Speaker 2: His motion on the mound is very deceptive, so that's
20:20
Speaker 2: what he does. He's been good in the minors for
20:23
Speaker 2: the most part, except... This year, he gave up four
20:27
Speaker 2: home runs in a very brief AAA stint in the minors,
20:30
Speaker 2: which skewed all of his numbers. I'm like, why the
20:32
Speaker 2: fuck does he have a five ERA in AAA this year?
20:36
Speaker 2: Maybe it's a fluke, or maybe it's a bad sign.
20:39
Speaker 2: I honestly don't really know. Detroit will have never faced
20:42
Speaker 2: him before, though, so do we think he's going to
20:46
Speaker 2: pitch well? I think he might. I mean, he does
20:47
Speaker 2: have major league experience, but it looks like Either they
20:51
Speaker 2: thought he wasn't ready yet or, no, he was injured.
20:53
Speaker 2: He was definitely injured because he's on the 60-day IL
20:57
Speaker 2: right now. You've got to think that he pitched well
20:58
Speaker 2: enough in the majors in 2024 that if he was
21:02
Speaker 2: not hurt, he would have remained on the major league roster.
21:04
Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So maybe he's excited to
21:06
Speaker 2: get back out there. He's gone through the rehab. Everyone's
21:09
Speaker 2: excited to maybe rally behind him. But he is young, so...
21:14
Speaker 2: I like veterans coming back from the DL, but how
21:16
Speaker 2: is he going to respond to it? I'm not so sure.
21:19
Speaker 2: Detroit is going with River Ryan, who is one of
21:22
Speaker 2: the components of the Scooble trade. They got him in
21:26
Speaker 2: the Scooble trade. He's a really hard thrower. He throws
21:30
Speaker 2: upper 90s fastball up to 100 miles an hour. Has
21:34
Speaker 2: a five-pitch mix, I think, which is, I believe it's
21:37
Speaker 2: like fastball, slider, curveball. I think it's cutter and... either, uh,
21:44
Speaker 2: I don't know. It's either two extra fastballs or there
21:47
Speaker 2: might be a change in there. I forget, but he's
21:49
Speaker 2: more of a hard thrower than hers is he's a righty. Uh,
21:52
Speaker 2: and they're both similar size, six to one 95, but
21:55
Speaker 2: Ryan's the harder thrower. Ryan did actually make four starts
21:59
Speaker 2: for the Dodgers in 2024. He was actually good. 1.33
22:01
Speaker 2: or a 1.18 whip. Um, Had an okay strikeout rate.
22:08
Speaker 2: Was not that easy to hit, but he had too
22:10
Speaker 2: many walks. So he's a little bit wild. I think
22:13
Speaker 2: both these pitchers are a little bit wild here. And
22:16
Speaker 2: I believe Ryan has never been seen before by anybody
22:18
Speaker 2: on Washington. So I don't think anybody in either of
22:21
Speaker 2: these lineups has faced these opposing pitchers before. I think...
22:26
Speaker 2: I think that might mean maybe a first five under
22:29
Speaker 2: could be worth a look here because I think you
22:31
Speaker 2: have two talented pitchers who these teams want to see
22:35
Speaker 2: what they have with these pitchers, but we've already seen
22:37
Speaker 2: them pitch in the majors before, so we kind of
22:39
Speaker 2: know both these pitchers can handle pitching in the majors. Ryan,
22:44
Speaker 2: by the way, was pitching okay in the minors this year.
22:47
Speaker 2: I think his ERA in AAA was in the fours, though,
22:50
Speaker 2: which isn't exactly great, but I think he was kind
22:53
Speaker 2: of wild when he was in the minors this year
22:57
Speaker 2: it's a game that I, it's pretty unpredictable. I don't
23:00
Speaker 2: really want to do anything with it, but the total
23:01
Speaker 2: is eight and a half.
23:05
Speaker 4: Yeah.
23:05
Speaker 2: I mean, first five under maybe makes sense, but 67%
23:07
Speaker 2: of tickets, 92% of the cash on the over though,
23:11
Speaker 2: but I would avoid Washington's bullpen. The money is coming
23:14
Speaker 2: in on Washington, Detroit in the return home spot, 77%
23:17
Speaker 2: of the tickets on them. 51% of the cash on Washington.
23:20
Speaker 2: I don't disagree with Washington as a side here, but
23:23
Speaker 2: if you do that, I think you should do it
23:24
Speaker 2: in the first five because their bullpen is bad. So
23:28
Speaker 2: Washington first five, and you'll get them at a decent
23:30
Speaker 2: underdog price. Detroit's like minus 150 something here, which given
23:35
Speaker 2: that they're trying a pitcher that has limited major league
23:39
Speaker 2: experience here, and Detroit's in that really negative spot returning
23:42
Speaker 2: home from the road, seems like they should probably not
23:45
Speaker 2: be favored by this much here. So I think it
23:48
Speaker 2: makes some sense to maybe look towards Washington in a
23:52
Speaker 2: spot like that in the first five, but I don't
23:55
Speaker 2: want to do it. Minnesota-San Francisco is the last game
23:59
Speaker 2: on the board for baseball. San Francisco's returning home from
24:03
Speaker 2: a road trip. They're staying in California, though, at least,
24:06
Speaker 2: so they're not having to adjust to a new time
24:09
Speaker 2: zone here. They were in St. Louis and then in L.A.
24:11
Speaker 2: They got swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. Now
24:14
Speaker 2: they're returning home from that. But San Francisco, they also
24:18
Speaker 2: have nothing to play for at this point. Are they
24:20
Speaker 2: really going to get up for the Twins here? Probably not.
24:24
Speaker 2: They're coming off a rivalry series over the weekend against
24:26
Speaker 2: the Dodgers. Couldn't get it done there. Now they're returning home.
24:30
Speaker 2: It's a negative spot, man. They've got to get back
24:31
Speaker 2: to home life. They have nothing left to play for here.
24:34
Speaker 2: I don't like the spot for San Francisco at all. Minnesota,
24:38
Speaker 2: I believe they're out of it as well. They're tied
24:41
Speaker 2: with Detroit here. They're not going anywhere, but they at
24:44
Speaker 2: least did split the series with the Angels, and the
24:47
Speaker 2: games they lost were one-run losses, so they're still trying
24:50
Speaker 2: to win here. And they're staying in the Pacific time
24:53
Speaker 2: zone as well, so they don't have to adjust either.
24:56
Speaker 2: They were just in Anaheim, so that is not horrible
25:00
Speaker 2: for them. So situation, yeah, I like Minnesota given the
25:03
Speaker 2: situation here. I do not like Minnesota's bullpen, as we
25:07
Speaker 2: all know. Their bullpen is quite bad. It looks like
25:11
Speaker 2: they didn't use anybody. Out of the bullpen. Is that
25:14
Speaker 2: really right? Hold on.
25:17
Speaker 1: What?
25:18
Speaker 2: Let me see. Because Minnesota was using Dean Creamer. Did
25:22
Speaker 2: he pitch the whole game? Maybe he did. Yeah, it
25:25
Speaker 2: looks like he did. So that was our first five
25:28
Speaker 2: under that we won yesterday. Oh, no, they used Ober
25:30
Speaker 2: for three innings in relief. That's what it was. But, yeah,
25:34
Speaker 2: Creamer had a one-hit shot out through six innings yesterday
25:37
Speaker 2: against that pathetic Anaheim offense. So there you go. Twins
25:41
Speaker 2: saved their bullpen, but they're still– Not a good bullpen.
25:44
Speaker 2: San Francisco's is better. San Francisco used four guys out
25:47
Speaker 2: of the bullpen, though. And they haven't been exactly great.
25:50
Speaker 2: They're number 24. Minnesota's 29th. San Francisco, I still probably
25:56
Speaker 2: have to give them the bullpen edge in this one, though. Hitting-wise,
25:59
Speaker 2: Minnesota is the better team. Minnesota is... Where are they now?
26:06
Speaker 2: I was looking at bullpens still. Sorry. I got something
26:09
Speaker 2: stuck in my teeth, too. Minnesota, number 14, it's Oatmeal
26:14
Speaker 2: Man for breakfast. Minnesota, number 14, let me see. San Francisco,
26:20
Speaker 2: number 20, tied with the Royals. That's offensive rankings. Zebby
26:24
Speaker 2: Matthews is getting the start for Minnesota. I probably do
26:27
Speaker 2: prefer him over Tidwell, who's starting for San Fran. Matthews,
26:31
Speaker 2: I think, is just the more proven pitcher at this point.
26:36
Speaker 2: You see his career starting to take off a little
26:39
Speaker 2: bit this year. 4.74 ERA. I know that's not excellent,
26:43
Speaker 2: but 1.24 whip is really not that bad. He's not
26:47
Speaker 2: good on the road, though, which is kind of a problem. 6.93
26:50
Speaker 2: road ERA. However, he might pitch well in San Francisco
26:53
Speaker 2: because it is a pitcher-friendly park, at least, and their
26:56
Speaker 2: offense is quite bad. Matthews is coming off a really
27:00
Speaker 2: good start against the Yankees. I don't know if that's
27:01
Speaker 2: going to put him in a letdown or not, though.
27:04
Speaker 2: He had a six-inning shutout against them. He wasn't good
27:08
Speaker 2: in the two starts before that, though, and those were
27:10
Speaker 2: both on the road. The Yankees start was at home,
27:13
Speaker 2: so yeah, he isn't pitching that well on the road,
27:15
Speaker 2: although he did have one really good road start recently
27:17
Speaker 2: at the A's Stadium, which is a hitter-friendly stadium. Matthews,
27:21
Speaker 2: his hit rate's all right. He has not walked many
27:23
Speaker 2: guys this year, and his strikeout rate is okay. He's
27:27
Speaker 2: got a 2.7 strikeout walk ratio this year, which is
27:30
Speaker 2: lower than what he's posted in previous years. 7.7 Ks
27:34
Speaker 2: per night, so his strikeout rate has gone down this year,
27:37
Speaker 2: but maybe he's kind of changed the way that he
27:39
Speaker 2: pitches so he doesn't, like, wreck his arm. Like, I
27:42
Speaker 2: don't know exactly what he's changed this year, but San
27:44
Speaker 2: Francisco's never seen him before. That could be an advantage
27:47
Speaker 2: to him because he's not that bad of a pitcher,
27:50
Speaker 2: and they won't have seen him before, and they're not
27:52
Speaker 2: a really good offense. So I do kind of like
27:54
Speaker 2: Minnesota in this one in the first five. Still don't
27:58
Speaker 2: want to trust their bullpen. Blade Tidwell for San Francisco.
28:01
Speaker 2: He's got a 4.56 ERA and 1.2 whip, so his
28:04
Speaker 2: numbers are kind of similar in a way to Matt.
28:07
Speaker 2: He's actually not that good at home, 5.88 home ERA,
28:11
Speaker 2: very bizarre. Tidwell spent a lot of the season coming
28:14
Speaker 2: out of the bullpen, but he's been in the starting
28:16
Speaker 2: rotation for a while, and he's been up and down.
28:19
Speaker 2: His last start was pretty good at St. Louis, which
28:22
Speaker 2: is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He's been a little bit walk-heavy here, though.
28:27
Speaker 2: He's got a pretty low hit rate, but his walk
28:29
Speaker 2: rate's too high. His strikeout rate's not good either, really.
28:32
Speaker 2: Two strikeout walk ratios, not very good. 7.1 Ks per nine,
28:36
Speaker 2: not that good. Minnesota, I believe, has never faced him before,
28:39
Speaker 2: so he does have unfamiliarity against Minnesota here. I guess
28:45
Speaker 2: this could potentially be another under in the first five.
28:48
Speaker 2: The total's eight. 67% of tickets on the over, though
28:51
Speaker 2: 95% of the cash on the over, so the money
28:53
Speaker 2: is leaning over in this game. Minnesota is also favored
28:58
Speaker 2: at about minus one 20 and the odds makers kind of,
29:02
Speaker 2: they're telling you that Minnesota should win this game, but
29:04
Speaker 2: the public is kind of leaning that way to 56%
29:06
Speaker 2: of the tickets on Minnesota, 66% of the cash on
29:10
Speaker 2: the giants. So the money seems to be back in
29:13
Speaker 2: the giants here. I don't think I agree though. I think, um,
29:18
Speaker 2: I would leave Minnesota in the first five based on
29:20
Speaker 2: the situation and Matthews being somewhat more proven pitcher here. Um,
29:26
Speaker 2: I don't have a good feeling for any of these games, though.
29:29
Speaker 2: But given that my opinion on Washington first five matches,
29:34
Speaker 2: that's my only opinion on the whole baseball board that
29:37
Speaker 2: actually matches the market. read. So maybe that's the best
29:42
Speaker 2: play out of all the baseball games is Washington first five.
29:46
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's not something that I would want to do.
29:50
Speaker 2: So I'm passing on baseball here. We have two WNBA games.
29:54
Speaker 2: Peacock and NBC Sports has the first game at 8 p.m.
29:57
Speaker 2: which is Atlanta and New York these teams are both
30:00
Speaker 2: going to be in the playoffs they're both kind of
30:03
Speaker 2: vying for playoff positioning right now they could change their
30:06
Speaker 2: seating a little bit I don't know how much of
30:08
Speaker 2: a motivator that'll be but of course New York played
30:10
Speaker 2: yesterday and they killed us but that game really wasn't
30:14
Speaker 2: as close as it looked on the scoreboard like I
30:16
Speaker 2: said that game was within I don't know like 13
30:20
Speaker 2: points at halftime, I think, or maybe even less than that,
30:23
Speaker 2: maybe 11. So that game got out of hand late,
30:26
Speaker 2: and I don't know what the fuck happened, man. But
30:28
Speaker 2: the Liberty, I think they looked too good with that
30:31
Speaker 2: win yesterday. And their travel spot, their situation is not
30:34
Speaker 2: really that good here because they're playing a third game
30:36
Speaker 2: in four days all in different cities. They just went
30:39
Speaker 2: to Minnesota, pulled off that big upset, didn't have the
30:43
Speaker 2: letdown yesterday, which I thought they would, in the sandwich spot.
30:46
Speaker 2: And I thought the sandwich was even worse because this
30:49
Speaker 2: game against Atlanta was going to be today. So I'm
30:52
Speaker 2: pretty shocked that we did not get that one right.
30:55
Speaker 2: I'm not happy about it. But now the Liberty looked
30:58
Speaker 2: probably too good over the last couple games. They're facing
31:01
Speaker 2: an Atlanta team that does have a good defense here. Um,
31:05
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, Angel Reese, whatever, say what you want,
31:07
Speaker 2: but she is at least a good rebounder and a
31:09
Speaker 2: good defender. Um, Yeah, I think Atlanta is actually the
31:14
Speaker 2: better team here, so I don't love the spot for
31:16
Speaker 2: the Liberty. It is technically a return home spot as well,
31:19
Speaker 2: although they haven't been on the road for that long,
31:21
Speaker 2: so I don't really worry about that that much, but
31:23
Speaker 2: even so, third game in four days all in different
31:26
Speaker 2: cities is not that easy to do. Atlanta did not
31:28
Speaker 2: play yesterday. They're coming off easily beating Connecticut and Chicago
31:34
Speaker 2: coming out of the World Cup break, so they've had
31:37
Speaker 2: A couple of easy opponents, and they beat them both.
31:40
Speaker 2: I thought Chicago would put up more of a fight.
31:41
Speaker 2: I thought both teams would put up more of a
31:42
Speaker 2: fight than that. So the Liberty have been more impressive
31:46
Speaker 2: since coming out of the All-Star break just because they
31:49
Speaker 2: beat Minnesota. But I think that might overvalue them a
31:52
Speaker 2: little bit. So yeah, I like Atlanta in this one.
31:55
Speaker 2: The money does not agree with me at all, though.
31:56
Speaker 2: 75% of tickets on Atlanta, 83% of the cash on
31:58
Speaker 2: New York. I don't get it. Atlanta's favored, man. And
32:04
Speaker 2: I think people are going to look at this and
32:06
Speaker 2: you would think the public would be on New York here,
32:08
Speaker 2: even though it's like a pick the winner situation. I
32:10
Speaker 2: believe Atlanta has the better record, but it's only by
32:12
Speaker 2: like one game, I think something like that. So you
32:15
Speaker 2: think people would look at this and think, oh, yeah,
32:17
Speaker 2: this is going to be a competitive matchup. The Liberty
32:19
Speaker 2: just beat Minnesota on the road. So why wouldn't they
32:22
Speaker 2: beat Atlanta at home? Right. and you're getting two and
32:25
Speaker 2: a half, to me it almost looks too easy to
32:27
Speaker 2: play New York. But I don't know, man. I don't
32:31
Speaker 2: have a great opinion on this, but I would lean Atlanta.
32:33
Speaker 2: The total's really, really high, though. I don't know if
32:37
Speaker 2: this opener was accurate, because the total would have gone
32:40
Speaker 2: up 16 points, which doesn't make sense. There's no reason
32:45
Speaker 2: for that to happen. So I think this is just wrong.
32:49
Speaker 2: The opening line, I think that's just not the right number.
32:53
Speaker 2: But the high total would indicate that would be more
32:55
Speaker 2: of a New York-paced game, though, because I think Atlanta
32:58
Speaker 2: wants to play more of a defensive game. But we
33:01
Speaker 2: will see. The money is coming in on the under, though,
33:04
Speaker 2: which may be. I mean, this is the only game
33:07
Speaker 2: today that's between two playoff-bound teams here, so it might
33:10
Speaker 2: be more of a battle where the defenses show up.
33:13
Speaker 2: But I wouldn't want to do that either, because the Liberty, again,
33:16
Speaker 2: playing a third game in four days, their defense could
33:18
Speaker 2: be pretty tired here, so... I still prefer Atlanta, man,
33:21
Speaker 2: in that one. And the game that I talked about
33:24
Speaker 2: with the rest situation that was similar to that yesterday, Portland,
33:28
Speaker 2: even though they're not as good as New York, obviously,
33:30
Speaker 2: Portland was playing a third game in four days yesterday,
33:34
Speaker 2: and they did not do well. They lost badly to L.A.,
33:37
Speaker 2: so I was correct about that game. And that one
33:41
Speaker 2: was not one of my plays, so isn't that just great? Anyway, yeah.
33:45
Speaker 2: New York on the back-to-back, I don't really like it, man.
33:47
Speaker 2: And then we have Dallas at Phoenix on USA Network.
33:51
Speaker 2: Dallas is in the playoffs. It's just a matter of
33:54
Speaker 2: where are they going to land in the playoffs. They're
33:56
Speaker 2: trying to avoid having to play Minnesota, but we don't
33:58
Speaker 2: even know if Minnesota is going to be the number
34:00
Speaker 2: one or the number two seed. Dallas just beat Phoenix
34:04
Speaker 2: at home. you have to kind of figure out like,
34:07
Speaker 2: is there going to be some sort of zigzag potential here? Well,
34:09
Speaker 2: I don't know because Dallas won the game by five.
34:12
Speaker 2: So Dallas actually did not cover Dallas was a 10
34:14
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite in that game. Phoenix almost
34:17
Speaker 2: beat them. So that would actually have me looking towards
34:20
Speaker 2: Dallas more in this game because they almost got caught
34:23
Speaker 2: at home by Phoenix. You know what I mean? So
34:24
Speaker 2: Dallas after a game like this might actually take Phoenix
34:27
Speaker 2: more seriously after this, because Dallas is a double digit favorite.
34:32
Speaker 2: The game was close near the end. Uh, So that
34:34
Speaker 2: might shock Dallas into a little bit more focus. Phoenix
34:38
Speaker 2: might be a little bit out of gas after that performance.
34:40
Speaker 2: But it was not a statistical, like it was not
34:44
Speaker 2: a misleading final, let's say. Like Phoenix actually won the
34:47
Speaker 2: rebound battle. The game was close statistically. Like all throughout
34:50
Speaker 2: the stats, the game was close. So it was not
34:53
Speaker 2: a misleading final. So I don't have a whole lot
34:56
Speaker 2: to lean on here as far as the zigzag. Dallas
34:59
Speaker 2: is still a public side, which makes sense because they
35:02
Speaker 2: have the better record. They're going to the playoffs here.
35:04
Speaker 2: 92% of tickets, 88% of the cash on them. They're
35:09
Speaker 2: a minus six. They're a six-point favorite here. The total
35:12
Speaker 2: in this one's lower than the total in the other game,
35:14
Speaker 2: which really actually surprises me, which means Phoenix is going to,
35:21
Speaker 2: Try to slow the game down and be able to
35:23
Speaker 2: do that more successfully? I don't know what we're doing here.
35:25
Speaker 2: Because Dallas, they are not a slow-paced team. They play
35:28
Speaker 2: pretty fast. They score. They're not that great on defense,
35:31
Speaker 2: so I don't know. That seems a little weird. We
35:33
Speaker 2: don't see the percentages on the total here yet. I
35:38
Speaker 2: don't want to take Phoenix, though. Even though Dallas is
35:40
Speaker 2: the public side, the market read is saying Phoenix is
35:44
Speaker 2: The situation to me favors Dallas a little bit, to
35:46
Speaker 2: be honest. Dallas has one final game after this against Seattle,
35:50
Speaker 2: so it's not really a look ahead. Seattle's awful, so
35:53
Speaker 2: that's what I got on that. And then we do
35:55
Speaker 2: have the NFL game here, which I do have a
35:57
Speaker 2: play in the NFL game, which is my only play
35:59
Speaker 2: of the day. As we have already mentioned on the
36:02
Speaker 2: show multiple times, but if you waited, you can actually
36:04
Speaker 2: get a better number now on this. So we were
36:13
Speaker 2: on the Rams. I mean, I said you could play
36:15
Speaker 2: it earlier in the week at minus seven, but you
36:18
Speaker 2: can actually get a six and a half on this
36:20
Speaker 2: right now. I saw some it was like minus 115
36:24
Speaker 2: or something that might be worth it to get below
36:26
Speaker 2: that key number seven. You know what I mean? Lay
36:28
Speaker 2: the six and a half instead of the seven with
36:30
Speaker 2: the Rams. I like it either way. Although, unfortunately, in
36:33
Speaker 2: my pick five entry, which I went three and one
36:36
Speaker 2: with my four picks in that entry yesterday because I
36:39
Speaker 2: had Tennessee, Denver. Neither was a play for me on
36:42
Speaker 2: the show, but they both won. And then, of course,
36:44
Speaker 2: I had Miami and Indy. And I do have the Rams,
36:47
Speaker 2: but minus seven and a half in that one, which
36:49
Speaker 2: is a lot worse than six and a half. Now, yeah,
36:53
Speaker 2: I like the Rams still either way. I don't know
36:56
Speaker 2: why this didn't load the NFL schedule here, but whatever.
37:00
Speaker 2: Either way.
37:02
Speaker 2: Wait, what? I wanted the schedule. I don't know, man.
37:06
Speaker 2: I brought up the scoreboard. Either way, I don't care. Obviously,
37:09
Speaker 2: this is the Monday night game. It's ESPN. You've heard
37:12
Speaker 2: my analysis on this, but I'll do it again right now.
37:14
Speaker 2: Maybe I haven't gone into full detail with it, but
37:18
Speaker 2: this game I identified right away. Last Sunday night, as
37:21
Speaker 2: soon as the Giants game ended, I was like, who
37:24
Speaker 2: are the Giants playing next? We want to fade them
37:27
Speaker 2: because the Giants are coming off a huge win on
37:29
Speaker 2: Sunday night. It was the home opener with Harbaugh as
37:32
Speaker 2: their coach. They looked really good. Dart looked good. I
37:35
Speaker 2: think Dart is the guy, man. I think he's good.
37:38
Speaker 2: I've always said that. But this is just not a
37:41
Speaker 2: good spot for the Giants. Sunday night, huge win. Everybody
37:44
Speaker 2: saw the game. And it looks even better now because
37:48
Speaker 2: Dallas looked really good yesterday against Washington, which was a
37:51
Speaker 2: lean that I got correct there. Dallas easy win over Washington.
37:55
Speaker 2: Daniels got hurt, but it wasn't until near the end
37:57
Speaker 2: of the game. So we'll see with these QB injuries.
38:01
Speaker 2: Daniels and Caleb Williams both got hurt yesterday. So we
38:05
Speaker 2: will see. And that Chicago offense was not doing well
38:09
Speaker 2: anyway in that game. They only scored three points. Williams
38:12
Speaker 2: didn't go down until really late as well. But I
38:15
Speaker 2: like Tyson Bajent for Chicago, man. I actually think he's
38:17
Speaker 2: a better quarterback than Williams. People think I'm insane. Williams
38:21
Speaker 2: is not that good. His completion percentage wasn't very good.
38:24
Speaker 2: Last year he throws picks. Honestly, he's one of the
38:28
Speaker 2: most overrated quarterbacks, Williams. Chicago has a good rushing attack.
38:33
Speaker 2: Their coach is a very good offensive mind. Bajent actually
38:37
Speaker 2: is a good QB. He's a talented arm, and he's
38:40
Speaker 2: never really gotten the full shot, man. He's never really
38:44
Speaker 2: gotten a shot to really do it, but maybe he
38:47
Speaker 2: will in the next couple weeks. Anyway, Giants. This is
38:51
Speaker 2: going to be a letdown spot, in my opinion, coming
38:53
Speaker 2: off that massive win over Dallas, which looks even better now.
38:57
Speaker 2: Public is playing the Giants now as an underdog here,
39:01
Speaker 2: which is a red flag to me. 58, is that
39:04
Speaker 2: 58 or 56? 56% of the tickets on the Giants,
39:07
Speaker 2: but the real money's on LA. 76% of the cash
39:11
Speaker 2: on LA, although the public, because this is Monday night,
39:14
Speaker 2: the public is playing this game at a high volume,
39:16
Speaker 2: especially a day where there's almost nothing else to bet today.
39:21
Speaker 2: So this is going to get a huge volume on it.
39:23
Speaker 2: And you know, I like to fade the public in
39:25
Speaker 2: these huge volume games because the line is usually going
39:28
Speaker 2: to be skewed a little bit. And like I said,
39:30
Speaker 2: the look ahead on this game was Rams minus nine
39:33
Speaker 2: and a half. And now Garrett is injured, but I
39:36
Speaker 2: think he's only worth like half a point, dude. I
39:39
Speaker 2: know he's an elite defender, but one defensive player does
39:43
Speaker 2: not move the line much. Even the most dominant defensive
39:46
Speaker 2: player in the league is worth like a half point
39:49
Speaker 2: is a lot for a defensive player. I think that's
39:52
Speaker 2: what he's worth. Going from 9.5 to now 6.5 is
39:55
Speaker 2: a ridiculous move, and it's all based on the perception
39:59
Speaker 2: of one game. You know what I mean? So, yes,
40:01
Speaker 2: the Giants look really good. Well, the Rams, they're better
40:04
Speaker 2: than Dallas. I'm sorry. Dallas' offense is still bad. Dallas'
40:09
Speaker 2: defense is still bad. Yeah, Dallas' offense is good. There's
40:12
Speaker 2: no doubt about that. In fact, Dallas' offense is probably
40:15
Speaker 2: better than the Rams' offense. But the Rams' offense is
40:18
Speaker 2: still good, and the Rams' defense is a much different
40:21
Speaker 2: animal than Dallas'. So I don't see the Giants being
40:24
Speaker 2: able to move the ball anywhere near as well as
40:27
Speaker 2: they did against that– atrocious dallas defense the giants are
40:32
Speaker 2: also having to travel to the pacific coast for a
40:34
Speaker 2: night game you know i warn against that all the
40:36
Speaker 2: time the east coast team going all the way out
40:38
Speaker 2: west late night game you're gonna play until 11 like
40:43
Speaker 2: past 11 p.m your bio your biological clock time it's
40:47
Speaker 2: a bad spot you can fatigue at the end of
40:49
Speaker 2: a game like that so i think that's bad The
40:52
Speaker 2: Rams have a rest advantage because they haven't played since
40:54
Speaker 2: Wednesday while the Giants played on Sunday night. And it
40:58
Speaker 2: looks like the rest advantage probably helped San Francisco yesterday.
41:01
Speaker 2: I thought that San Francisco was going to have problems
41:04
Speaker 2: with a letdown after that win over the Rams or whatever.
41:07
Speaker 2: That wasn't the case. That Miami team is just real bad, dude.
41:10
Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you, but San Francisco
41:13
Speaker 2: was fine coming off that traveling having to shift their
41:17
Speaker 2: biological clocks but the thing about the Rams is they
41:20
Speaker 2: never shifted their biological clocks that's why I gave out
41:22
Speaker 2: San Francisco as a play in that first game there
41:26
Speaker 2: because San Francisco was out there a week early really
41:29
Speaker 2: focused on winning that game get your biological clocks ready
41:32
Speaker 2: get them in tune Sean McVay was like now we're
41:35
Speaker 2: not doing that we're gonna fly out the night before
41:37
Speaker 2: not adjust at all play the game and then come
41:40
Speaker 2: back home and we won't have to readjust and we'll
41:42
Speaker 2: be ready to go now while that hurt the Rams
41:45
Speaker 2: in that game I think because they didn't adjust to
41:47
Speaker 2: the Australia time, 17-hour difference. They stayed on Pacific time,
41:53
Speaker 2: and that's where they are now. So I think that
41:55
Speaker 2: is going to help the Rams coming into a game
41:57
Speaker 2: like this. Plus the perception, like I said, is just
41:59
Speaker 2: way off, and that's what you want to look at
42:01
Speaker 2: in week two. The Rams looked really bad. So because
42:05
Speaker 2: of one game, the Rams were the best odds to
42:09
Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl. Now they look bad first game.
42:13
Speaker 2: But it's because they didn't shift their clocks, man. I
42:16
Speaker 2: think that's why. They look really bad. So in the
42:19
Speaker 2: public's eyes, oh, this team isn't as good as what
42:21
Speaker 2: we thought. They're laying a bunch of points here against
42:24
Speaker 2: a team that looks way better than what they thought.
42:27
Speaker 2: So now the perception's all skewed and people think that
42:30
Speaker 2: they're getting value by taking the Giants as a big
42:32
Speaker 2: underdog here. And I think the opposite is true. I
42:35
Speaker 2: think the Rams should still be like a nine-point favorite
42:38
Speaker 2: in this game. You know what I mean? But instead,
42:41
Speaker 2: you're getting under a touchdown now. Yeah, with the team
42:44
Speaker 2: that still might be the best team in the league,
42:46
Speaker 2: even though they are without Garrett right now. Aaron Donald,
42:48
Speaker 2: I guess, is potentially coming back for this game. He's
42:52
Speaker 2: not going to be what he once was, but we'll
42:54
Speaker 2: see if he can have an impact out there. I mean,
42:56
Speaker 2: he was a dominant defensive player when he was playing,
42:59
Speaker 2: and I think he's in his mid-30s now, but we'll see.
43:04
Speaker 2: what he's able to do. Yeah, I don't think I
43:08
Speaker 2: have too much else on this. The totals in the
43:10
Speaker 2: high 40s, I don't really have a feel for the total.
43:12
Speaker 2: The money's coming in towards the over, which if that's
43:15
Speaker 2: the case, that will help our cause because if it's
43:17
Speaker 2: a higher scoring game, it's easier for the favorite to cover.
43:21
Speaker 2: So there is that. But yeah, I like the Rams.
43:23
Speaker 2: I think it's all perception. They looked really bad in
43:26
Speaker 2: that first game. I think that they just, you know,
43:29
Speaker 2: I think they just They went about that game really stupidly.
43:33
Speaker 2: That's what I think. They did not adjust to the
43:36
Speaker 2: time zone out there. It hurt them in that game,
43:39
Speaker 2: but I think it will help them moving forward. Now
43:41
Speaker 2: the public is off their train because they didn't look
43:43
Speaker 2: good in week one. The Giants looked really good in
43:45
Speaker 2: week one. It's all perception, man. You can't base anything
43:49
Speaker 2: off of one game. You know what I mean? Don't
43:51
Speaker 2: be stupid. No team is as good as they look
43:53
Speaker 2: in their best game. No team is as bad as
43:55
Speaker 2: they look in their worst game. The Rams are certainly
43:57
Speaker 2: nowhere near as bad as what they looked like in
43:59
Speaker 2: that awful performance against San Francisco. The Giants, while they're
44:03
Speaker 2: going to be an improving team, they're not as good
44:05
Speaker 2: as they looked on Sunday night either. So Rams is
44:08
Speaker 2: the play. It's my only play today. Minus the points, 6.5
44:12
Speaker 2: or 7. you'll be able to find the six and
44:15
Speaker 2: a half. If you don't want to pay as much
44:17
Speaker 2: juice as you're being asked to, you could wait, but
44:20
Speaker 2: there's a good number right now at the lion book.
44:22
Speaker 2: You can get it at minus one 12 right now.
44:24
Speaker 2: And DK has minus one 15 on it. So yeah,
44:28
Speaker 2: I would probably do that laying up to minus one
44:31
Speaker 2: 15 to get the six and a half instead of
44:32
Speaker 2: the seven. Looks good to me. That's going to do it.
44:35
Speaker 2: Rams only play of the day. Learn to tote on Twitter,
44:38
Speaker 2: learn to tone on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here.
44:42
Speaker 2: Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Covered in Uke is
44:47
Speaker 2: my ukulele channel on YouTube. You can check that out. Patreon.com
44:51
Speaker 2: slash LearnToToad if you want to throw me support over there.
44:54
Speaker 2: I got to get my YouTube channel up to date.
44:58
Speaker 2: I did another song yesterday, a Newfound Glory tribute for Chad,
45:02
Speaker 2: who unfortunately died. He had had cancer for a while,
45:07
Speaker 2: and it was a very aggressive cancer. form of cancer
45:09
Speaker 2: that I think it got into his brain. I want
45:12
Speaker 2: to say really, really bad stuff, man, just awful. And
45:16
Speaker 2: I saw them live twice in the last, I think
45:20
Speaker 2: probably four or five years maybe. And he was not
45:22
Speaker 2: there for either of those shows. And they, they talked
45:25
Speaker 2: about it. Like Jordan talked about it. They were raising
45:28
Speaker 2: money for him and for cancer research, I think at
45:30
Speaker 2: the merch table and stuff as well. Um, I thought
45:34
Speaker 2: that it wasn't, as bad as it apparently was, because
45:38
Speaker 2: I was thinking, oh, someday, yeah, he's going to come back.
45:40
Speaker 2: He'll rejoin the band. Nope. It sucks, man. Yeah, they're
45:45
Speaker 2: a band that I definitely listened to pretty heavily back
45:48
Speaker 2: in high school, whatever, when I was a pop punk
45:51
Speaker 2: guy to a decent extent and going to Warped Tours
45:54
Speaker 2: and stuff like that. I saw them at some of
45:56
Speaker 2: the Warped Tours back then, too. It sucks, man. So
45:59
Speaker 2: I did get to see Chad play live back then
46:02
Speaker 2: more than 20 years ago now. Man, I hate it.
46:08
Speaker 2: I don't want to end on a bad note, though.
46:09
Speaker 2: What can I do? Well, we have Losercast tomorrow, but
46:12
Speaker 2: I'm going to be at a concert, so I'm not
46:13
Speaker 2: going to be on tomorrow's Losercast, but that will be tomorrow.
46:17
Speaker 2: The New York Giants G-Spot podcast. I have no idea
46:21
Speaker 2: if we're doing a live thing tonight or not. I'll
46:24
Speaker 2: see what's up with Ben. We've got to figure something out, man.
46:28
Speaker 2: But I told him... I was talking to him after
46:31
Speaker 2: the Sunday night game. I was telling him, like, right away,
46:33
Speaker 2: I'm like, the Rams are going to be, like, a
46:35
Speaker 2: bet for me next week, dude. Like, I don't know
46:37
Speaker 2: what to tell you. Like, I just, I want to
46:39
Speaker 2: get winners here, you know what I mean? Like, I
46:41
Speaker 2: love Dart. I'm a fan of the Giants. I'm definitely
46:44
Speaker 2: a fan of Dart. I don't want them to lose,
46:47
Speaker 2: but it's just, I want to be right about things,
46:49
Speaker 2: and I want to give out winners, you know what
46:51
Speaker 2: I mean? That's the whole thing. That's what I'm trying
46:53
Speaker 2: to do here. Let's hope that we get it. That's
46:56
Speaker 2: going to do it. Dirty Sock, I think you're the
46:59
Speaker 2: only one in the chat today. I don't want to
47:01
Speaker 2: miss anybody, but yes, thank you, sir. Peace.
47:07
Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
47:11
Speaker 2: Let somebody answer.
47:13
Speaker 1: Let somebody know you do not.
47:17
Speaker 4: Have to lose this round alone.
47:23
Speaker 1: Hold Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on, hold
47:36
Speaker 1: on Let me pull.
47:39
Speaker 4: You out That bad luck bites hard But it don't
47:47
Speaker 4: get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me
47:54
Speaker 4: now Hold on, hold
48:01
Speaker 3: On You're still here now guitar solo