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Sep 11 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260911 The September 11, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason from University of Illinois Extension, covers agricultural commodity markets, agronomy updates, and seasonal weather patterns affecting harvest. The program begins with market analysis from Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com, who evaluates the latest USDA WASDE and crop production estimates alongside settling grain prices, the unwinding of soy-corn spreads, technical price thresholds, and the influence of rising crude oil prices driven by Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. Abigail Peterson of the Illinois Soybean Association then recaps the ISA Field Day in Decatur, highlighting on-farm trial protocols, cover crop biomass studies for weed suppression, free soybean cyst nematode testing, and upcoming winter residue management workshops. Finally, atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass of Nutrien Ag Solutions breaks down regional and global weather trends, noting an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season 01:53 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com 08:41 Recapping the ISA Field Day in Decatur 15:11 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 11th day of September 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. He’ll help us review as well the USDA reports. We’ll do that again during our Commodity Week program if you can stay with us for the whole of the hour. Otherwise, you can hear it online at willag.org right now, and many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend. We’ll also, during Commodity Week by the way, talk about logistics and grain flow out of the Black Sea. A very, very good conversation with Matt Darrel of Kepler. Today, we’ll continue on with our Closing Market Report. We’ll hear from Abigail Peterson from the Illinois Soybean Association, a review of some of the things that took place at yesterday’s agronomy day in Decatur. And as we wrap up our time together, we’ll take a look at the weather forecast, too, with Eric Snodgrass on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: December corn at the CME Group settled at $5.30 and a quarter, down 3.5 cents. The March at $5.45 and a half, 3 and 3/4 lower, and May at $5.53, down 4. November soybeans today, $12.96 and a half, down 35 and 3/4. January, 35 and a quarter lower at $13.12. Bean meal, $3.80 lower. The bean oil down $2.22. Soft red winter wheat, 16 lower at $7.25 and a quarter, and the hard red December at $7.98 and a half, finished 20 and a quarter cents lower on the afternoon. In the energy markets nearby, West Texas Intermediate Crude down $2.51 at $99.96. USDA released WASDE and crop production report estimates this morning. Here’s a summary of those numbers for corn and soybeans. They now expect the corn yield to be 178.5 with a production of 15.8 billion bushels. An ending stocks of 1.567 billion, and a season’s average cash price of $4.80. Soybeans, a 52.8 bushel to the acre yield, a 4.535 billion bushel crop, 310 million bushels for the ending stocks, and a $12 cash price. 01:53 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com Todd Gleason: Here to talk about those numbers and so much more is Mike Zuzolo at GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas, fresh out of the state of Illinois, I believe, after a good meeting last night. Thank you for being with us. Mike Zuzolo: Great to be with you, Todd. Yeah, we had a little bit of a delay this morning, a lot of fog along the Mississippi, so we took the Illinois route down through and near the Macomb area and over to Hannibal so that we could get back maybe a little bit better on a better track with the river. Todd Gleason: What was your assessment early on when you saw these numbers come out from the USDA? Mike Zuzolo: The crude oil-led market Thursday that ignited the grains and soybeans added a big layer of complexity to the report today. And so when I saw the corn yield go down and the bean yield go up just fractionally, I really would have liked to have sold another rally on the soybeans had we gotten a quote-unquote “price bullish” report. But because the market fell back, and it started with the unwinding of the soy-corn spreads, it was pretty clear the trade was caught on the wrong side of the market versus what USDA gave us. I think many of us thought the corn yield would go down, but that the bean yield would probably inch down as well, but the weather recently had given us a “buy beans, sell corn” mindset. And so we had to unwind that spread. So we made new highs in the corn. Notice we got up against that 5.45 level in the December contract, so that’s a really key level when we come back next week. The soybeans, though, and the wheat pulled the corn back down, which that was my biggest fear and an indication that… one of the reasons why I would have liked to have sold into a rally after Thursday’s rally was, A, I got the crude oil rally I wanted, and B, if I would have gotten another rally, then I would have started worrying about the fund length in the corn, beans, and wheat. And so that’s the dynamic we’re fighting right now. As I sit on Friday afternoon, I sent a text blast out to clients and said, go above 5.45, it’s a breakout to the upside in these corn; go below 12.95 on a close of November beans, I see that as a break down and the beans could lead us lower. And so that’s kind of my initial thoughts, with the yield being very, very high in my analysis profile. Todd Gleason: So we have been close to that on the high side, but are well off it for December corn. However, November soybeans, and you and I are talking just as the closes are coming through, they’re right on that level that you’re thinking about. And I’m wondering how worried you are that this might be something that takes place? Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, between what USDA gave us—because I think you could argue that the soybean yields are going to go down, I think that’s a fair assessment given this heat wave, especially the same heat wave is affecting the corn. So I think between that, the US-China meeting, and USDA raising demand in soybeans today, China raising their imports, I believe to 108 million metric tons on their own CASDE report before the WASDE report, it adds up to me to say, okay, with the fund length where it’s at and the US-China trade meeting coming up, if we lose that 12.95, I’m not going to sell cash, I’m not going to recommend cash-related sales, I’ll get some puts or some type of floor underneath me on paper that I think I can better control. And then if we snap back and this is just a corrective wave and we want to make new highs as we go into the October report, I’ve got that cash market still wide open. Todd Gleason: Tell me about why energies are leading this at this time. Mike Zuzolo: You know, I did about a 35-minute presentation and left plenty of time for questions, and after the presentation was over we were there probably another 20 or 30 minutes talking, and the group was fantastic, and my hats off to the Henry County and Rock County people that put this on, and Farm Bureau and another county I can’t remember. But the answer to your question, Todd, is the idea continues to be in the trade, by the funds, and by some in the Department of Energy in my opinion, based upon the most recent short-term energy outlook that just came out this week, they continue to expect de-escalation and the continuation of improvement in supplies coming out of the Persian Gulf. And when the Houthis took on the Saudis in the Red Sea on Wednesday, Thursday, that opened up a whole new can of supply worms that the trade and some of these analysts I think are not factoring in. And so the simple mindset I have is, it’s going to be an escalation into the midterm elections, not a de-escalation. And so that’s why I’m really leery, especially with the wheat joining up with the crude on Thursday, I’m really leery about doing a lot of cash sales here. Todd Gleason: Yeah, crude over $100 a barrel, at least in the Brent today, the West Texas also, but it had traded off at one point so was just below that. This is something that you’re going to be watching really, really closely, and it’ll be hard for producers to have to manage it as they try to make sales off of that combine, as you mentioned. Mike Zuzolo: Yes, and make sales off of a combine that’s running $6 retail diesel and farm prices are going up as well, if you didn’t get it locked in. So it’s not hard to convince, I think, or make recommendations to do more futures-related hedging as opposed to the physicals. And I watch, you’re right, the spot Brent crude oil in the North Sea got up to about 145 the first high, Todd, and so we got up to 120-ish this week. So I feel like, okay, there might be another 20, 25 dollars up in the Brent spot crude off the North Sea, so that’s what I’ll be watching, too. Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo is at GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. 08:41 Recapping the ISA Field Day in Decatur Todd Gleason: Yesterday I attended the Illinois Soybean Association Field Day on site at the Farm Progress Show near Decatur. That’s the site, not the show itself this year. That was in Iowa. Abigail Peterson was there. She heads up the agronomy team for the Soybean Association. I started by asking her about yesterday’s event and what kinds of things she hoped that the producers on site would take away from it. Abigail Peterson: First of all, I appreciate them sticking it out with us today, we had some rain in the morning, but the presenters and ISA, I think we really just laid out what opportunities farmers can take advantage of this fall. If they… like you said, do an insecticide, fertility, we’ve got cover crops, looking at different soybean tools with desiccation and relay cropping. It’s really just what challenge do you might want to address for the next growing season? And I like this time right before harvest because you can get excited about what do you think it’s going to be like and what are you expecting and when are you getting started? And so I think this day really can get the wheels turning on, I should really start to look at my soil tests, I should really look at how I’m using my cover crops and take advantage of these groups like ISA and the University of Illinois to help in that data analysis and to give me a report on, is this actually working? Todd Gleason: Two other speakers that you had up front were talking about cover crops, one of them somebody that belongs to, of course, the Soybean Association, and then PCM, Precision Conservation Management, of the Soybean Association funds and works with really closely, along with U of I. Those two things, I think, are related, they’re both conservation related, roughly speaking. What did you hear that you thought would have and should have been of interest to the audience there in the tent, and the audience that we’re talking to today? Abigail Peterson: Yeah, definitely. Jim Isermann did a great job in explaining, you know, we focus on cereal rye because it’s available, it’s on the cheaper end, and it’s worked, it’s tried and true. But there are opportunities beyond cereal rye and groups like PCM looking at the economics are really great to know, you know, how you can fit those into your operation financially. We really want to look at the science behind why these cover crops work and maybe why winter barley has an advantage over cereal rye. So that was talked about today in the biomass weed suppression studies that we’re doing that will be open next year, or this fall, for farmers to enroll in. And when you talk about cover crops, obviously soil health, a lot of the great benefits underground, but we’re really seeing that weed suppression as a tool and that’s where farmers should take advantage of the cover crop system. Todd Gleason: When you say open this fall, what do you mean? Abigail Peterson: Definitely. So on fieldadvisor.org, under “participate”, farmers can find all the open trials, so that includes the cover crop biomass trial, the relay crop, the desiccation, Nick Seiter’s trial that he talked about with insecticide seed treatments and foliar insecticide applications. These are all listed on fieldadvisor.org. They all have a protocol, so you can read what are the specifications you need. We’re looking for 40-acre field minimum, we’re looking for, you know, this to adapt to what your size of equipment is. And there’s, the protocols all laid out, and from there you can really say, hey, this is something I want to do. And to be honest, you could do them on your own, you could read the protocol and say, I’m going to adapt this in a side-by-side or do a retrofit. But they’re up to read for farmers to engage, and they’ve been developed with the farmer in mind. This is feedback we’re getting from our board, from our growing concerns survey. This is what farmers have asked for. And so this is why I think my team gets really excited about these trials. Todd Gleason: What do you have coming up next that producers should be aware of? Abigail Peterson: Oh boy. So we definitely have our free SCN testing that farmers can take advantage of. That’s a great way to understand populations on your field. Nathan Schroeder develops a survey that kind of reviews the whole state. It’s a great way to ensure that Illinois is staying ahead of SCN and keep monitoring. Free red crown rot testing obviously will kind of sunset, but we want to pursue that for next year, so people who have taken advantage of that testing program. We are going to be handing out grain sample bags, and these are for farmers, it’s a really easy one, just contact us to get a bag. You put it in, add some information, and Seth Naeve over at the University of Minnesota, he collects all of this and tells us the soybean quality story. And when you think checkoff, you should be thinking of quality, you should be thinking of those marketplaces. And having that survey of protein, oil, and what the quality from Illinois soybeans are, that’s where we want to be your checkoff and represent you well in discussions of how do we get more buck for the beans. Todd Gleason: And the winter meeting season starts in December, like the 10th and the 11th? Abigail Peterson: It’ll be here before we know it. So December 10th, December 11th, over at the Bloomington ISA office, and then one over at the Orr Center over in Western Illinois. These are residue management focused workshops. I’m excited about those. We talk a lot about high yielding corn, high yielding beans, and now we’re adding a lot of carbon with these cover crops. How do you best manage that turnover, nutrient management, maybe some mechanical, biological tools. So I’m excited for those workshops, I think farmers have had a lot of questions on residue management. And then coming up, summit will be January, and the Agronomy Forum will be January 14th at ISU at the Bone Center. So we’re excited to host that in Bloomington this year and have a great overview of all the checkoff funded research that farmers can ask questions, connect with us, connect with the researchers, and get a good relationship with what research is happening in their fields. Todd Gleason: They’re checking ilsoy.org, or the fieldadvisor websites? Abigail Peterson: fieldadvisor.org keeps up to date with all agronomy related production items. So definitely check that out. Crop reports, field days, blogs coming out about this harvest. What opportunities for the testing that I mentioned, the trials. Definitely check out the on-farm trial network. You can even find a farmer report of what you should expect at the end of the year if you do a trial, so you know what you get back for your data analysis. I think that’s really cool. And then ilsoy.org for everything ISA, including production, and that gives you all the good stuff. And so keep those on your bookmarks on your webpage. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Abigail. Appreciate it, safe harvest. Abigail Peterson: Abigail Peterson is with the Illinois Soybean Association. 15:11 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Eric Snodgrass is here. He is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. If I could order another work day up for tomorrow just like today for the yard work, it would be really nice. Thank you. I appreciate that. Eric Snodgrass: Oh wait, it’s going to be hotter. Todd Gleason: That’s okay. Let’s talk about a couple of things. You and I, at this time of year, like to talk about the hurricane season. I usually only think about it as the Atlantic. Although you have been telling me about a hurricane or two or three or four in the Pacific. So what is on your mind this week as it’s related to those? Eric Snodgrass: Yeah, we’ve already seen Hawaii either brushed or hit by I think three different systems. And we’ve got another one out there named Norbert that maybe, by the time we talk next week, we’ll be speaking about it coming into the Hawaiian Islands next weekend. And the remnants of it at least. And it just goes to show you what this El Niño is doing. It’s got the Pacific Ocean so warm and so conducive to building tropical systems that it just can’t help itself. And normally, just as a reminder, Hawaii is typically not in the typical range of having a tropical system hit it. This is pretty crazy to see them out that far. But it’s a telltale about how big and bad this El Niño is. Now come to the Atlantic, we can’t buy a system. Whereas the East Pacific is more than double its normal rate of accumulation of a unit we call accumulated cyclone energy, which is just a measure by which we can assess the strength of any individual storm system or the entire season itself. Okay. So the Pacific is more than double. The Atlantic is under 7% of a normal season so far. Meaning that even if we had normal tropical cyclone activity for the back half of the season, which the back half of the season starts today, so even if we could get normal activity, we would barely be able to get up to 50% of an average hurricane season. So what I’m saying, Todd, is the Atlantic is not producing. Too much wind shear. And that means we have to deal with the idea of our moisture not coming from, you know, the remnants of a hurricane this fall, but from somewhere else. And you know, I think it’s an important question on a lot of folks’ minds given how dry we’ve been as of late. Todd Gleason: Well, you’re talking about drought in some spaces, more drought, I mean, in some spaces? Eric Snodgrass: Well, it’s crept out of Texas and Oklahoma and Louisiana and Arkansas and now it’s pushed into the Mid-South. It pushed into our region. We did have this nice little rain that came through yesterday, you know, on Thursday, it was a nice gentle—what did it rain for, a couple hours, a nice gentle rain. But we didn’t get much out of it. It was barely, you know, barely that much rain at all. And we’re questioning what does the rest of the Mississippi Valley look like as we go forward the next couple of weeks. Now, if you’re in Iowa, Nebraska, parts of Missouri, and maybe more of northern Illinois and Wisconsin, I’ve got wet conditions. In fact, I think in western Iowa, maybe parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, they could be looking at in the next 7 to 10 days, multiple chances for not only strong storms, but also the chance for locally 3 to 5 inches of rain, maybe more. So they’re going to be getting too wet at the wrong time, Todd, we’re all wanting to have this crop dry down and get out of here. Down to our south in the Mid-South, I was just talking to Jeff Tarsi this morning, who lives in Memphis, Jeff’s big in Nutrien, and this guy, he says, look, we’re almost done harvesting. You give us another week, we’ll be done. Everything will be out, they’ll just have it all finished because of how dry it’s been and how hot it’s been. And which, by the way, is something we should chat about, Todd. Did you see the new records coming out yesterday saying that the summer of 2026 was the hottest on record? Todd Gleason: I did. Eric Snodgrass: Yeah. It’s, you got to take it with a bit of understanding, right? It was average temperature, not max temperatures. We didn’t come anywhere close to the records set in 1934 or 1936 with respect to max temperatures. Those, of course, were much hotter and a much different time in US history. But these warm overnight lows, combined with where we did get our afternoon highs, we did it. It’s the new warmest average temperature, it’s a little over 74 degrees. So the question is when that might break down. Todd Gleason: Well, yeah, I suppose, and I don’t think I’m going to say yay, we did it. Eric Snodgrass: Yeah, yeah, I know. Todd Gleason: But okay, so when might it break down, or maybe let’s turn it just slightly and talk about the last two-thirds of September, here we are, a third of the way through the month. Eric Snodgrass: Yeah. So did you hear the new stories yesterday about all the birds migrating out of the upper Midwest? Did you see any of that on social media? Todd Gleason: Oh, I missed that one altogether. Eric Snodgrass: Well, you know, there were a ton of posts about how we could see with our radar a lot of clear air echo, which often comes from bugs and dust and birds and all sorts of other cool stuff, which I could bore you with for the next couple of hours. But when there’s no rain around, we can see all sorts of other things. And we monitored this northwest wind, which is why it was so pleasant with the temperatures. But we monitored this northwest wind, and on it, the birds got smart and like, hey, look, let’s use this as a tailwind to start heading south, and there was a big migration through the upper Midwest. It was kind of fun to watch. But we’re going to rebound in temperatures relatively quickly. So the birds that took advantage of that northwest wind, they were smart. But the ones that didn’t, they’re going to have to wait a little longer. But there are better chances when we get out there into the third week, maybe past the 20th, that we have more routine cold fronts coming through and cooler weather. And that’s going to just start to signal more of that flavor of fall and get us away from what has been a very, very hot start to the month of September. So get ready for your typical fall variability, but it’s not going to be showing up really until we get out there past the next week or so. Todd Gleason: What’s the rest of the fall look like? Eric Snodgrass: Well, this is what’s interesting. A big El Niño building that tilts the odds for us toward a wetter fall. It does not tilt the odds for us for a warmer fall. Doesn’t mean it’s going to get cold, but it doesn’t say, oh, it’s going to be just full-on warmth and we’re going to struggle to get soil temperatures down and therefore we’re going to have problems doing fall application. No, our problems are going to probably come from more available moisture to make rainfall. El Niño tilts the odds in that direction. Where it starts to get warm is December. December tends to be a more mild month than typical. So Todd, it’s the same narrative I’ve been sharing. I think we’re going to be looking at tighter harvest windows, tighter fall application windows just because of increased chances of precipitation. I did not say flood, I didn’t say we’re going to just completely wipe it all out, it’s just tilting the odds toward wetter, which is something we’ve not seen in a long time for our fall time period. Todd Gleason: Speaking of tilting the odds towards wetter, just the movement of the calendar does that for South America. What do you see? Eric Snodgrass: Well, tomorrow is the date after which I think everybody can plant down there. I have to fact-check that, but I think that’s the date, the 12th. And big whiff in the models predicting heavy rains right now for the center-west region. So the past few weeks they’ve been really wet for this timeframe, it’s not there. So that means no early planting because they’re waiting on moisture to come through so the soil and seed bed is going to be just right. But that’d be really early anyway. I think the bigger story, Todd, is how wet it remains in southern Brazil, so think Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, maybe even Mato Grosso do Sul. If they continue to stay wet, that’s going to also throw the brakes on any sort of early planting. What will be important, Todd, is five weeks from now, that time period in mid-October, where we see where they’ve made it. If they’re behind, we’re going to really see a reaction I think in US market prices based off delayed Brazilian planting. Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much. We’ll talk with you again next week. Eric Snodgrass: Yeah, sounds good, thanks Todd. Todd Gleason: That’s Eric Snodgrass. He is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. Joined us on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report. If you can stay with us, Commodity Week is next. If not, many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend, and you can hear it online at willag.org now.