Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 74 - 7/11/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 74 - 7/11/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 74 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:26
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:29
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:36
Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week is nearing an end
0:40
here, guys. And sadly, all good things must
0:42
come to an end as I am a little bit banged up today.
0:45
Took a red eye from San Diego back to Boston.
0:48
A little bit groggy, little jet lag starting to kick in here and
0:51
I'm already missing the Mexican food, the sun, the beach, I'm
0:55
missing all of it. But either way, guys, we're
0:58
going to see if we can get back to the grind here for today.
1:01
I have a three pack of sweats for you.
1:03
A little bit of a short slate here today.
1:05
I know we have kind of a smaller than usual Thursday baseball
1:08
slate, only 12 games, bunch of day games.
1:10
But I did find 2 bets in Major League Baseball that caught my
1:13
eye, including a couple money lines here, one of which is a
1:17
really, really sharp dog. And they may, they might even
1:19
become a favorite here at some point.
1:21
So big sharp line move as well as a classic Rd. favorite steam
1:25
system match. And then we're going to get
1:26
right back to the WNBA because we have only one game here for
1:30
tonight, the sky and the liberty.
1:32
But I noticed a market move on this game as well as a great
1:35
rhythm edge. Our friends at rhythm have a
1:37
great community model, AI model and my own personal model, both
1:42
matching up and lighting up here looking at the total.
1:44
So we'll hit on it all on episode 74 of the All Systems Go
1:48
sports Betting pod powered by Rhythm, a three pack two Major
1:51
League Baseball 1 WWNBA. That's what we'll be hitting on
1:55
as I am now back in Boston and missing San Diego once again.
1:59
Anyway, all good things must come to an end.
2:01
Sadly wasn't a great day yesterday. 1/3 and 1 -. 2.36
2:06
units only. When was the Brewers didn't
2:08
really have to sweat that thing. They won nine nothing but a
2:10
couple of frustrating situations.
2:12
The Giants had an early 2 nothing lead.
2:14
They end up getting blown out. 5:50 the Rays can't get any
2:18
offense going. They lose 2 to one.
2:20
Then the Red Sox over 10. We had wind blowing out.
2:23
We had a great sharp mush advantage there from our friends
2:26
at Juice Reel and we couldn't get the over 10 as the
2:29
unbelievably the Oakland A's. I'm glad I didn't play the Red
2:32
Sox. I distinctly remember saying
2:34
yesterday, hey, seems like the Red Sox easy winner in this one,
2:37
but they're popular and line really hasn't moved at all.
2:39
Oakland ends up winning that one five to two.
2:41
Oakland put up five runs. Sox only put up two, so couldn't
2:44
cash our over 10 and then kind of a tough push with the Texas
2:48
over 9 ended up being right at 9:00.
2:51
So again, a push, you know, it's not terrible because you don't
2:54
lose any money. But there if you're watching
2:56
that game, there are multiple opportunities.
2:58
I was watching on the plane as I was coming back from from San
3:01
Diego cross country to Boston, but Texas had multiple
3:04
opportunities, bases loaded, one out, could not push another run
3:08
across. So again, 1/3 and 1 -, 2.36
3:12
units. Let's see if we can get back to
3:13
our winning ways on a big Thursday pod for today.
3:17
So with that being said, let's get right back to what we love
3:19
to do, which is scouring the market, looking for sharp
3:23
contrarian system matches and hopefully cashing some tickets
3:26
when all is said and done. So I want to start off with some
3:29
Major League Baseball. Now for the Major League
3:31
Baseball slate. As I mentioned, 12 game slate
3:33
today. Day sweats, couple games caught
3:36
my eye tonight. Let's start off with a 9:38 PM
3:39
Eastern Time. First pitch, the Seattle
3:41
Mariners visiting the Los Angeles Angels.
3:45
Now going to this one, we have the Seattle Mariners at 51 and
3:48
43. They just took two, actually
3:52
swept A2 game series, brief 2 game series against the Padres.
3:56
Meanwhile, the Angels lost two or three against Texas.
3:59
Again, seven to two game last night.
4:01
Really can't believe we didn't get one more run to cash that
4:03
over with the Angels on the air 38 and 54.
4:07
So let's talk about the pitching match up here and then we'll
4:09
talk about the sharp line move in favor of Seattle.
4:12
So I'm going Mariners, hint, hint, spoiler alert.
4:14
But anyway, pitching match up first because I think this is
4:16
important with the Seattle Mariners for today, they're
4:19
going to go with the righty Luis Castillo.
4:22
On the year, Castillo was seven and nine 3.72 ERA.
4:26
Now This is why to me, a big reason why I want to be against
4:30
LALA is starting Jack Kochanowitz, who I just noticed
4:35
is making his Major League Baseball debut.
4:38
He is a 23 year old rookie. He was a third round pick and he
4:42
didn't even pitch in AAA. He got called up right from AA
4:45
and at AA his numbers didn't seem great.
4:48
There. He was five and six with a 4.55
4:51
ERA. And I always kind of, I'm
4:53
interested in when a guy gets called up from the minor leagues
4:57
making his debut, what's the immediate move across the market
5:01
like? Sometimes you'll see a young
5:02
pitcher come up and the market will move in his favor because
5:05
he kind of has an advantage just from the fact that, yes, he's a
5:09
rookie making his debut, but also all the opposing pitchers
5:12
have never seen him before. And often times the lack of
5:15
familiarity really benefits the pitcher.
5:17
Hitters get better the more often they see a pitcher.
5:20
However, sometimes it goes the other way and kind of what you
5:22
expect to happen maybe does happen.
5:24
A kid gets called up, the lights are really bright, maybe he's
5:28
not ready for prime time, the line moves against them and he
5:30
gets shelled. That's what I'm hoping for
5:32
because we've seen across the market is that Seattle is taking
5:35
in some pretty good steam. This game opened with the
5:38
Mariners listed as low as a -, 150 -, 155 road favorite.
5:42
Now we're seeing Seattle up to -165 -, 170.
5:46
So it wasn't the, you know, unfamiliar Kuchowski.
5:49
He's going to surprise people and and pitch great today.
5:51
No, it's going the other way where wise guys seem to be
5:54
betting against this rookie pitcher making his debut.
5:57
So we got a little bit of steam here in favor of Seattle, about
6:00
a 10/15 cent move. Some shops even closer to 20
6:03
cent move and the bet splits really scream Seattle as well.
6:06
They're getting 87% of money line bets and 91% of money line
6:12
dollars. So kind of tells us that we both
6:14
have both a pro and Joe bet split public saying Seattle
6:18
better record wise guys are saying, yeah, better record
6:20
Seattle. But also we want to bet against
6:22
this rookie and kind of bank on the veteran Castillo who's been
6:26
there and done that. So line move towards Seattle bet
6:28
split towards Seattle fading a rookie pitcher making his debut
6:32
and then we have quite a few system matches here a favorite
6:35
with steam against the team who missed the postseason the
6:38
previous year. So you're favored, you're
6:40
expected to win, you have steam in your favor at least $0.10 or
6:43
more and you're playing a team that's not very good didn't make
6:46
the playoffs the last last year. That system is 157 and one O one
6:50
this year, 61% with a 1% or almost 2% ROI.
6:56
Keep on cruising. If you are now looking at
6:58
another system Rd. favorites with steam.
7:00
So very simple system, but love this one when you're a road
7:03
favorite with steam $0.10 or more 54 and 32 on the year, 63%
7:09
with a 6% ROI. So it also match with Seattle.
7:13
Seattle, by the way, is 3 and O head to head against LA.
7:16
So hopefully they continue their winning ways here for tonight.
7:19
And you kind of look at the pitching here because Seattle is
7:22
kind of a weird team. They're eight games above 500,
7:25
but they're only hitting 217 on the year.
7:27
Now they are kind of boom or bust.
7:28
They have 103 homers, so they can hit the long ball, but they
7:31
don't generate a ton of offense or, you know, put a put a ton of
7:35
guys on via via the hits. But they are a very good
7:37
pitching staff. And if you look just microcosm
7:41
here, last 10 games, Seattle's team ERA is 3.16.
7:45
The Angels team ERA last 10 games is 4.98.
7:48
So even though this is a divisional game, typically I
7:50
don't like betting, you know, favorites in the division.
7:53
But I think you got a lot of evidence here to bet against
7:55
coach, Coach Chanowitz. I don't know if I'm pronouncing
7:57
the poor kids name right, but backing the veteran Castillo,
8:00
going with the line move and going with a couple system
8:03
matches here on Seattle. So I'm going to go with the
8:06
Mariners here, Let's go Seattle. I got the Mariners at -165 keep
8:12
on cruising. Here's the game that is taking
8:14
in so much steam and is so sharp.
8:16
I cut my finger and bled all over my my app on my phone when
8:19
I put this one back in into the into the old betting account.
8:23
I'm talking about the Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Snakes.
8:27
Now, going into this one is a late game here for tonight, 9:40
8:31
PM Eastern Time, first pitch. This is the final game of
8:34
four-game series. Now, the Braves have taken two
8:36
of the first three games. They're 51 and 40 on the year.
8:40
They won the opener five to four and extras as a -, 195 road
8:43
favorite. Then they won again in game two,
8:46
six to two as a -, 115 road favorite.
8:50
Diamondbacks were 46 and 47. And I always mention this,
8:53
Darush knows what I'm talking about, my buddy and one of the O
8:56
GS of the of the pod. The win total is going to be a
8:59
sweat. They're 46 and 47, one game
9:01
below 500. You know, I want them to hang
9:03
around 500 because I have that over 83 1/2 win total.
9:07
But anyway, they clawed back with a big seven to five win
9:10
yesterday, cashing as a -, 115 home favorite.
9:13
So for the series finale in the desert tonight, the Braves are
9:16
going to go with lefty Max Freed, who's seven and four with
9:20
a 3.18 ERA. Meanwhile, the Snakes are going
9:22
to go with Brandon Fod, the righty three and six 4.19 ERAI
9:27
don't want to jinx this FOD kid, but I feel like the first few
9:30
times I bet on him, he got lit up and lost.
9:32
And I want to say the last couple times he's pitched well
9:34
and won when I've gotten down on him.
9:35
So hoping for more of the the latter, not the former.
9:39
But anyway, this line move really tells the story.
9:42
This game opened with Atlanta listed as high as a - 145 road
9:46
favorite, and we're seeing Atlanta all the way down to -115
9:51
- 110. I'm leaving some shops, seeing
9:53
some shops basically get down to a pick em.
9:56
So this is a very just classic reverse line move scenario
9:59
because the public is all over the Braves, who again, you know,
10:02
World Series, you know, you know, contender here and a lot
10:05
of big name star players. But even though the Arizona
10:09
snakes are getting sorry, even though the Atlanta Braves are
10:12
getting 76% of money line bets, they're the big popular side.
10:17
This line's falling away from them and not just a 5 cent dip.
10:20
This is like a 40 cent move. This is a huge, huge adjustment
10:23
away from Atlanta and toward Arizona.
10:26
So it tells me we have a good sharp RLM play on the snakes
10:29
with pros grabbing Arizona here. Ideally, you know, ideally you
10:34
got some plus money like I wrote about this one for vesan.com for
10:38
the sharp report. You can always read that around
10:40
noon or 1:00 Eastern Time. I'll tweet it out for my account
10:44
on Twitter at Josh under score Insights.
10:46
But you may have, excuse me, read the article and got in
10:49
Arizona like, you know, plus 105 + 100 now, which is a good
10:54
thing. A good thing in terms of their
10:56
really, really sharp and the lines continuing to move in
10:58
their favor. But not a great thing if you
10:59
didn't get the plus money. But either way, now you're
11:02
looking at Arizona, you know, plus 100 -, 105.
11:06
I see one book that's even like -107 for Arizona.
11:09
So not great. You didn't get the good number,
11:11
but good that, you know, the line is continuing to go in
11:13
their favor. Tells me that pros are still
11:15
hitting Arizona even though the line has moved so much.
11:19
So I'm going to go Snakes here, guys.
11:20
I'm going to bank on their offense.
11:22
They're hitting 253 on the year with 400 and 457 runs scored.
11:27
The Braves, you think of them as having great lineup, a lot of
11:30
good star players, but they're only hitting 243 on the year
11:33
with 395 runs scored. Mentioned FOD earlier, but the
11:37
Snakes are five and two. In his last seven starts, he's
11:40
been better at home than on the road.
11:42
At home, 3.47, ERA. On the road 4.81.
11:45
Lucky for us, he's at home tonight and the Diamondbacks 6
11:48
and four over the last 10 games are hitting 277.
11:52
The Braves are five and five over the last 10, only hitting
11:54
239. And in particular, always just
11:58
do a quick Google search how teams perform against lefties.
12:01
Did you guys know that Arizona's hitting 280 against southpaws
12:05
this year? That's the second best batting
12:07
average against lefties among all Major League Baseball.
12:10
So I'm hoping the snakes bats come to life.
12:12
I got to go with this super sharp line move again, Publix on
12:15
the Braves with this line continues to plummet, plummet
12:18
and even flip, you know dog to pick them or maybe even dog to
12:21
fave before it's all said and done in favor of Arizona.
12:24
So I got to go snakes here guys, shop around.
12:27
I got Arizona a little bit earlier today around plus 100.
12:30
I think I got plus one O 2. But now if you're playing it
12:32
again, I'm still playing it, but you're looking at probably
12:35
around a -, 1 O 5 now at this point.
12:37
So two bets for tonight. Can we get both of them?
12:40
That would be nice. Let's get Seattle -165 and
12:44
Arizona now around even money. Now over to the WNBA.
12:49
There's only one game here tonight, the Sky and the
12:51
Liberty. And I got a system match on this
12:53
one. So this is on Prime Video, a
12:56
7:00 Eastern Time tip off. And going into it, Chicago Sky 9
13:00
and 12 versus the New York Liberty who have been great, 18
13:03
and four. I was actually trying to find
13:06
the odds on Angel Reese double, double 'cause she's continues to
13:09
set the record. I think she's had a double
13:11
double in like 15 straight games as a rookie.
13:14
So that's, that's pretty darn good.
13:16
So you might want to dabble. I don't know the current price
13:18
out there, but if she does it again, you'll say why didn't I
13:21
play it? But anyway, in terms of the
13:23
side, did see a little bit of movement here in favor of the
13:26
sky because you saw this game open with Liberty favored around
13:31
-11 at home. Now they're down to -10 and I
13:35
see one shop or even 2 shops down to -9 1/2.
13:38
So this line is going away from the Liberty toward the sky.
13:42
But what I'm going to focus on is the total here because I have
13:45
a lot of various reasons to back the over route for some points
13:50
in this one. Now #1 the total has gone up.
13:53
Just always start with that current.
13:55
Anytime you look at your live odds page, look at the opener
13:57
column, which is static. It'll never change.
13:59
It just shows the opener. And then on the right side of
14:02
the opener will be all your current odds, which can give you
14:05
just a very quick reference left to right of how it's moved.
14:08
Has it gone up? Has it gone down?
14:09
Has it stayed the same? Well, the total here has gone
14:12
up. It opened at 165 1/2.
14:15
It's now up to 166 1/2. So that's a one point adjustment
14:19
to the over. Now, what's notable to me is
14:23
that this is a contrarian over. You know, this isn't public
14:25
hammering the over. Public's actually going under in
14:28
this one. Currently 61% of bets are going
14:31
under. But you got to ask yourself, if
14:33
the public's on the under, why is this total going up?
14:36
If the public likes the under, why are the oddsmakers jacking
14:39
up the total little bit to give under betters an even better
14:41
number? Now, if you're a public better
14:43
who doesn't really know how to read line movement, I don't
14:45
blame you. It takes some some time to kind
14:47
of understand how markets move. But you would probably say, hey,
14:51
I love the under 165 1/2. I love it even more at under 166
14:55
1/2. But again, looks too good to be
14:57
true, You know, looks fishy. There's usually a reason for it.
15:00
So to me, the fact that you're only getting 39% of bets on the
15:03
over, yet it rose screams sharp contrarian over.
15:07
So we have a rare contrarian over opportunity.
15:10
The total has ticked up. Some shops even have at one
15:13
point I was looking at the line movement reached, I want to say
15:15
167 1/2 and came back down. So it's really either, you know,
15:20
just only gone up in One Direction here.
15:23
But we have the contrarian over and also this is interesting to
15:26
me because you know, you would I always look at not only the the
15:30
bare bones, the meat and potatoes of the game, you know,
15:32
the line movement, the the the bet splits, but then kind of
15:35
schedule wise, this is a little interesting because both the sky
15:38
and the liberty played last night.
15:40
They're both on the second leg of a back-to-back.
15:43
The sky beat the dream 78 to 69. The Liberty beat the sun 71 to
15:49
68. Now, if you notice those two box
15:51
scores, one was a combined total of 147.
15:54
One was a combined total of 139. So I think This is why the
15:58
public's hammering the under. They just look at last night.
16:00
Hey, these teams both flew way under.
16:02
So let's play the under here today.
16:04
However, you got to take each game on its own merits.
16:07
And even though you had again, a fishy situation where both went
16:10
under and the public's been in the under, why is this thing
16:13
going up? Tells me again, we have sharp
16:15
money here going over. Now in terms of both these teams
16:18
and their stats, the sky, I'm going to bank on their pace.
16:21
They're #3 in terms of pace, they get up and down the court
16:24
pace. Fast pace is good.
16:26
More possessions, more opportunities to score,
16:28
hopefully benefit the over. And then the Liberty, so many
16:31
good things to say about them. Offensively, they are #2 in
16:34
offensive rating, they're #2 in points per game, 86 points per
16:38
game, their number one in field goal percentage, 45.4%, and the
16:42
number one in three pointers made per game around 10.
16:46
Now to add it all up again, we have the total going up even
16:49
though public spending under contrarian over.
16:51
We have a good bet split, contrarian bet split.
16:54
We have fishy, fishy, both flew under, yet this thing's rising.
16:59
And then the little cherry on top or I guess I have 3 cherries
17:02
on top, one rhythm. These are all rhythm edges here,
17:06
the first one being and of course rhythm who we love with
17:09
their AI backed models and predictions to help us cash bets
17:12
both on player props in totals Rhythm, the AI rhythm model,
17:17
which again with rhythm, you can either just follow the the the
17:20
model that rhythm gives you, which is great, or you can
17:22
create your own. But with the rhythm AI model is
17:24
predicting a 174.4 final lot total.
17:29
So that is a pretty big edge over a 166 1/2.
17:32
I have my Josh rhythm model that is at 173.9 points.
17:36
So both the rhythm model and my personal model, which I wait
17:40
some factors a little bit differently are both screaming
17:42
over and lastly, the community model.
17:45
So pulling all the abusers of of rhythm who have a model model
17:49
that they've created that matches this game. 80% of them
17:52
are matching with the over. So we're putting a piece up.
17:55
Put a lot of pieces of the puzzle here together, guys.
17:58
Total goes up contrarian over fishy.
18:00
Both went under yet total rises today rhythm AI model edge Josh
18:05
rhythm model edge community model edge I got to play this
18:08
over guys give me the over sky liberty over 166 1/2.
18:15
So that about does it for episode 74 of the all systems go
18:18
sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
18:22
First off, this is the part of the pod where number one, I
18:25
thank you. Thank you as always for
18:26
listening, for tuning in, for pulling up a chair to the
18:29
virtual bar and listening to some sharp breakdowns here from
18:32
your from the perspective of data and your head and not your
18:35
heart. But I also asked something of
18:37
you, could you please, if you enjoy this podcast, give it a 5
18:41
star review on on. I was going to say Amazon.
18:44
I think we're on Amazon. But anyway, Spotify or iTunes.
18:47
Those are the two big ones. If you could give it five stars
18:49
on Spotify or iTunes, that would really go a long way to continue
18:52
to creating some traction and some momentum for the pod.
18:56
Also, if you want to click the follow button if that's an
18:59
option for you, that way you get alerted as soon as the pod
19:01
drops, that would also be fantastic.
19:04
Secondly, if you enjoy the breakdowns and you want to learn
19:06
more about data-driven sharp contrarian betting, again, this
19:10
is the way of life, tracking the market.
19:12
Not betting based on what you think or hope or want to happen,
19:16
but based on what the market is telling you.
19:18
The smart money is leaning and going against the public and
19:21
leaning on the information. Always think of yourself, you
19:24
know, with the floor of the New York Stock Exchange monitoring
19:26
all the stocks, looking for signals in the market, trying to
19:30
get down on where Warren Buffett's betting or Billy
19:32
Walters is betting. But if this type of betting
19:35
appeals to you, and I think if you're listening to my voice, it
19:37
probably does appeal to you and you want to learn more to become
19:40
an even better data-driven better.
19:43
Well, guess what? I wrote a book that will teach
19:45
you all the insurance and outs of data-driven contrarian
19:47
betting. It's called the Everything Guide
19:49
to Sports betting. Just pick up a copy for you or
19:51
for friend, you can just go to Amazon and type in the
19:54
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
19:56
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
19:58
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
20:01
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
20:03
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
20:06
a bankroll management plan, all included in the Everything Guide
20:10
to Sports Betting. So pick one up and when I see
20:12
you at the sports book, I'm going to sign my book for you
20:14
and I'm going to buy you a beer or maybe ginger ale if you don't
20:17
drink, which is just fine by me. But that about does it guys
20:20
Lastly, I also want to tell you of course, about rhythm and
20:23
juice reel. Who are two of my or the two are
20:27
my two favorite. I should say sports betting apps
20:30
to help you cash some tickets here.
20:32
We mentioned rhythm with an edge on the WNBA game, but I also
20:35
want to mention rhythm to being just fantastic with golf as
20:38
well. I know the Scottish Open is
20:39
going on right now and you can actually use the rhythm AI caddy
20:44
to bet hole hole to hole. So before every single hole,
20:47
rhythm is going to give you a projection and say, hey, Ludwig
20:51
Alberg is, you know, predicted to get a eagle here or a birdie
20:57
and it gives you a price as well as an edge of what to bet.
21:01
Or maybe you think he's going to bogey or par, but you can really
21:03
literally bet hole to hole. So if you're a golf better, you
21:06
got to get rhythm. It's just fantastic and you can
21:08
kind of use it for every single hole.
21:11
And then of course, juice reel who their Robo.
21:13
I did see Robo Jackson went two and O yesterday.
21:15
I wish I played them he actually had was against me took the
21:18
Yankees and then I thought the other one was I know Seattle.
21:22
But anyway with juice reel you get 2 best bets each day that
21:24
come out at noon which are AI backed model plays.
21:28
You also get arbitrage opportunities as well as the
21:31
sharp mush plays. And you can also sync your apps
21:33
so that you can learn more about yourself as a sports better
21:37
learn your strengths and weaknesses.
21:38
But both both rhythm and juice reel are available to you with a
21:41
7 day free trial. All you got to do is give it a
21:43
shot by clicking the link that is located inside the bio
21:47
description of this podcast. Lastly guys, my parting words.
21:52
Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River and
21:55
Rhode Island, The Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
21:57
Sun in in Connecticut, and my neck of the woods in Boston at
22:01
the Encore Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield are
22:04
out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
22:06
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners.
22:08
Where the lowest use possible is found at the South Point or
22:11
sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim
22:13
pool, which you're going to need a pool if you're out in Vegas
22:16
breaking records like 120°. I got up to 100 in San Diego and
22:20
it was very hot. So I, I can't imagine what 120
22:22
is like. But whether you're at the
22:24
stadium swim pool at Circa, wherever it may be, you're going
22:27
to walk up to me and we're going to shake our heads cause
22:30
yesterday was a bit of a frustrating day.
22:32
You can show me a Brewers ticket, but the rest we're going
22:35
to, we're going to rip them up and we're going to recycle them.
22:37
Don't throw them away. Recycle them.
22:39
Be kind to the trees. But anyway, guys, let's see if
22:41
we can get back at it for today on a big episode 74 of the all
22:45
systems go pod. And then also we do have I just
22:49
looked some biting this weekend. So we had last weekend off, but
22:53
I'm looking now Rose Nam and Junus against Cortez UFC Fight
22:56
Night. So you guys know the drill
22:58
Around 9:00 AM tomorrow morning, Friday morning, my buddy John
23:01
Ewing is going to set us send us a updated batch of bet splits
23:05
from bet MGM. We're going to pick out
23:07
hopefully a winner for biting this weekend in the UFC.
23:11
But that about does it, everyone.
23:12
My parting words, as always, stay sharp.
23:14
Stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
23:16
Place yourself on the side of the house.
23:18
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
23:20
Well, smart money won every time.
23:22
Of course not, because nothing's a lock, nothing's a guarantee.
23:26
Remember, we're betting on an inexact science here.
23:28
But here's the thing. We can be successful betters
23:30
long term if we follow the blueprint, follow the model
23:34
against the public, with the house, with the pros.
23:36
Flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
23:39
If we can do that, we're going to be OK long term.
23:42
So enjoy the sweats. Everyone.
23:43
Have a great Thirsty Thursday. Be back at it tomorrow for a big
23:47
Friday. Episode 75 of the All Systems Go
23:50
sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
23:53
Have a great Thursday everyone. I got to go get some sleep
23:56
because I'm still jet lagged, but good luck everybody.
23:58
I'll see you tomorrow for a big pod.