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NBA Finals Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Action
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Network and proudly presented by Bett three sixty five. I
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: It is Tuesday afternoon, May thirtieth, the day after the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Boston Celtics lost to the Miami Heat in Game seven.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike and Padre, my BFF
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter Ello.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: So I'm in, hello, Chad. Yes, NBA Finals, finally, finally,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: NBA Finals.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Listen. It was what nine days between when the Nuggets
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: finished off the Lakers and the Heat finished off the Celtics.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: We're gonna get to that. We're gonna have Matt Moore,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Action Network Senior writer covering the NBA. He's got a
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: couple of great stories already out right now after last
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: night's game, both talking about the Heat and the Nuggets.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: He is a Colorado based dude. He knows the Nuggets
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: inside and out. He also had a great story that
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I want to kick off when we talked to him
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: about are the Celtics one of those teams that could
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: be considered the most overrated betting team? In NBA history.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Also co host of the Buckets podcast, The Fabulous Buckets Podcast, Simon.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Before we get to that, Nick Nurse is the new
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: coach of the Philadelphia seventy six ers. You got a
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: hot take.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: It's a kind of NBA sting. I turned the AHL, right, NHL,
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: if you have a head coach, you expect that he'll
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: be back in about five years. By then, you already
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: have six new head coaches on your team. So the
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: NHL is kind of the extreme where no matter what,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: eventually your head coach will eventually be back. The NBA
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: is kind of turning that way, right. It's like the
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Old Boys Club. It's just the rotation of guys. I
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: like Nick Nurse. I think it's a good move. I
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: think you're in the same boat. Right. We got fifteen weeks,
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: fifteen Sundays, I should say, until the NFL starts. These
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: are like the if you love sports, these are the
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: last really good two weeks. Right, we got NHL, we
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: get NBA, and then it's just it's over. It's just
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: baseball from then on out. So I'm excited about it.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: I haven't even really thought about them. I'm still locked
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: in on the NBA still going all in on hockey again.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I never in my life would think I'd miss Florida.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: But what a time to be a Florida sports fan.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, you literally have two eight seeds in the finals.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: It's pretty insane. So I would say I'm bitter. I'm
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: still in that bitter mode, like I've been bitter being
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: a little bitch to Boston since they lost. It's fun
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: trolling that fan base because they're so sensitive. Same goes
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: with Florida. I hope Florida loses them both finals. That
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: I'd be wonderful for me because I'm in East Coast bias.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: I love talking shit, so Florida cool story. I hope
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: their hockey team loses and their basketball team. That's that's
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: me as a bitter Philadelphia's sports fan.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is proudly presented by
• 3:14
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• 4:47
  Speaker 1: came on the air because Simon, you and I were
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: just bopping our heads to the music and didn't realize
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: it was time to start talking.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: It's every day. I don't give fire chat. It's a
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: good day to may even when we make small talk. Now,
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: I make small talk if there's a camera in my
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: room now at all times. I'm one of those people.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: I'm completely locked in that.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: No joke. Man, It's frightening how you have to live
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: that way. So my sixteen year old decided to join Twitter.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: Nice.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he asked me to follow him and I did,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: and I was just thrilled that he said I should
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: follow him. The only thing he's tweeted so far a
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: couple of basketball tweets. And I say to him and
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: his friends, who are all joining Twitter and you know,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: wanting to do podcasts, I'm like, listen to me. Don't
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: do anything stupid that you think is funny, because you
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: have bad sense of humor, you have bad judgment, and
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: anything you do on this platform will come back to
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: haunt you later in life. So last night during the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Celtics game, and I want to bring in Matt More
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: to talk about this. He was trying to workshop some
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: tweets with me, telling me tweets he wanted to put
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: out about Jalen Brown, or about how bad the Celtics are,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Jalen Brown turnovers and every one of them. I'm like,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: these are terrible. If you're gonna do it, be original.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Don't be the guy who just says what you're thinking
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: because you think it's interesting. You got ten followers, nobody
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: gives a fuck.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's why I'm in a new account. When I
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: got hired by you, Chad, I was like, you know what,
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: I don't think people need to see any writing a
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: rap lyrics from when I was in high school. No,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: that's probably not them. You've going to make a new
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: new profile. I'm telling you that's that's the way to go.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore. Let's bring in Matt Moore, Action Network senior
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: writer covering the NBA. He's freaking brilliant at this. Talk
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: about a guy, uh who proves his worth unlike us
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: every single day, Simon, I want to talk about this
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: game last night. I want to talk about your story
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: about the Celtics being the most overrated betting team in
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: NBA history. You said something incredibly thoughtful and incredibly prescient.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: When you were on the podcast two weeks ago before
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference Finals, we asked you, what does SPO
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: do Coach Spostra Eric Sposter do so well? What makes
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: him such a good coach? Which describe what you said
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: then and explain what you saw him do in this series,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: especially last night they gave them a clear advantage in
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Game seven.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of things this s Bow
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: does well.
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: Obviously, it starts from the top in terms of like
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: the heat culture and all that stuff. That really stuff
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: is real in terms of how they approach it. But
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: from a tactical perspective, there's a couple of things as
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: Spoe does in particular. One much like Nick Nurse actually Simon,
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: he's not married to his prior concepts. He's not going
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: to go into a series like Doc Rivers does and
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: just be like, this is who we are and this
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: is how we play, and we won't change it, and
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: we just have to do it well enough and then
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: we'll win. He plays the personnel and the style necessary
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: to adapt to the problems in front of him. So
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: in this series he needed to get three point volumes,
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: so he went smaller and put the ball more in
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: Caleb Martin's hands, who almost won probably should have won
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Thank God for me. He didn't
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: have a big ticket on Jimmy Butler, but in this
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: series he was able to manipulate. He removes Kevin Love,
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: who is a starter. Kevin Loves goes from starter to
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: bench to not in the rotation. Cody Zeller goes from
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: a key part versus the bucks not in the rotation.
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: He adjusts to whatever is necessary, and then on top
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: of that, he throws a lot of different coverages out
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: for what he needs to be able to do. Boston
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: has historically had a lot of problems with zone and
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: so what Spoe did in the series was pretty genius.
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: It's not just as simple as like he used zone. Okay,
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: lots of coaches can do that. You have to be
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: able to coach it and execute it well. But here's
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: the other key. He would throw it at them when
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: they were not expecting it. So you start off the
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: game and you're a man demand and the Celtics try
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: and get comfortable, and then the second quarter when they're
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: trying to make a push, Bam, he hits you with
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: a zone for just a small stretch, goes back to man,
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: you get comfortable with that, again, hits you with zone again.
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: The way to interrupt these teams using zone, and he's
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: gonna have a big problem with that in the next series.
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: Is one of the reasons why I think Spoe is
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: one of the best coaches in the NBA.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: He's he is sick, he is totally sick. I also
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: love his demeanor. You saw such a difference between when
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: the Heat are losing and Spoe is interviewed, whether it's
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: you know, before halftime or after the third quarter, he
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: gives a thoughtful answer about that is that is honest.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: These guys want to win so bad. These guys are pushing,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: These guys are tense. Joe Mizulo, what do you think
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: about Jason Tatum's got to fight through it? Second question?
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Less than three were to answer. This Celtics team, I
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: just felt like they were made up of guys who
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: lead from the front the entire time. They are not
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: a team that handled adversity very well and in every
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: respect last night I know Jason Tatum was injured, but
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: he was still playing. And this is a team that
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: had no strategy if they weren't winning the game, because
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: all they wanted to do one pass, break a guy
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: down in one on one, drive to the basket, turn
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: over the and they did that last year in the
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: finals two, Matt, it's not like anything changed in the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: past twelve months for their two key players.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: I think a lot of this too is you know,
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: I'll kind of reframe it a little bit. So you said,
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: like they want to play from the front, they don't
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: handle adversity. Well, they came back from the Sixers against
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: the Sixers down three to two. They came back last
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: year down three to two in a series. They actually
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: respond pretty well when they're absolutely against the wall. But
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: here's the problem is they mess around so much and
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: put themselves in such bad situations that their margin for
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: error goes to zero. Like this is still the no
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: team has come back from multiple game sevens, Like they can't.
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: It's too much to ask for. And so they messed
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: around versus the Sixers and barely got out of that
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: because they faced a team that's actually worse in those situations.
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: Than they are, and then they run into Miami and
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: they do the exact same thing, losing Game one. Okay,
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: teams usually lose after going to a game seven. There's
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: a historical trend behind that, all right. Game two was
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: the one where you gotta win that game and they
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: come out flat and they get smacked in that one.
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: That was the one where they really I think lost
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: the series. Where their season ended was game two. Now
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: they push all the way back from down three because
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: they were, to be quite honest, the better on paper,
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: more talented team, but they got themselves to a Game seven,
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: and then it really felt like after Derek White hits
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: that buzzer beater, which, by the way, the Celtics blew
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: a ten point lead in a must win situation in
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: Game six, it felt like they were like we got it,
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: crowds behind us, like they could just show up, and
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: Mihami was like, no, like we're we are absolutely prepared
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: to win this environment. And Boston, more than anything is
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: just if the threes aren't falling, they fall apart.
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: They can't win different ways.
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: If the Celtics can't hit threes, that team absolutely falls
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: to pieces their numbers. When they shot less than thirty
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: five percent from three in the postseason the last two
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: seasons is awful, and it caught up with them in
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: Game seven at the absolute worst time. But you've got
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: to be able to find different way used to win.
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: Last year they had the defense to do that. They
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: got away from that process this year and that's why
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: they're going home.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. It just felt
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: like the Celtics last year. You can really tell how
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: big of a difference the coaching was, right if you
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: go back and watch the film from them last year
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: to this year. Defensive schemes is totally different, right, It
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: felt like this year the defensive schemes were different. And
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: then offensively again, it not that I want to nippick
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: about the NBA, but we've seen how these teams kind
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: of trying to do the Golden State mode. Right, It's like, well,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: we're gonna become a team that can hit these threes, right,
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: We're gonna run plays where you can hit these open threes.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: None of it felt like it was in rhythm, Like
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: if you go back and watch the YAP last night,
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: all their shots were in rhythm. Like that's such a
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: big deal. Anyone that shoots, you know how it is
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: you literally practice these shots and you know, to me,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: the whole thing with Boston last night, it was just
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: so interesting. Of Yeah, the Tatum injury was real, right,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: you saw that kind of shifted that whole game when
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: he got hurt. He really couldn't do much defensively and
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: he just was trying to tough it out. But the rest
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: of the team just wilt it. I mean, I mean
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: Jalen Brown, that was his his career high of turnovers, right,
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: eight turnovers and a game seven at home. Just bizarre.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: Even when they're up big the heat, I still thought, well,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Boston'll make a run, right because they were just shooting
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: so terribly from three, and it just never came. So
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: what is your view on the Celtics team? Like, what
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: are they historically as a betting team? I mean, how
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: do you view them through a prism of this is
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: a team that a lot of hype, Right, they were
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: the two seed? What were they minus four hundred? I
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: think they were minus fourgering this years their minus fin
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: waldred against the Sixers that went to seven. This just
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: a team that seemed like they ever underachieved a lot
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: this season. So I just want to know, from historically
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: betting perspective, how do you view this team that more.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: I think they're the most overrated team from a betting
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: perspective that we've seen that we have numbers on since
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: we have data going back to us since two thousand
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: and three, they have the most losses in a postseason
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: as a favorite with eight. They have literally lost the
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: most when favored. They were favored in almost every matchup,
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: and a lot of this is is it puts in
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: the betting perspective right where we're gonna talk about this
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: From a betting perspective, It's not just like these guys
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: are overrated versus how good they are. It's like, no, no, no,
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: we have numbers. What does the market think? And the
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: market consistently overrated this team, Like we're seeing them as
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: a seven and a half eight point favorite in these
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: Sixers games at home, when clearly the Sixers were able
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: to hang with them, Like at every single spot there
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: was an opportunity to come back on the other side,
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: especially if you had the money line and make good profit.
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: I went against them after the Hawks series was when
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: I started first started to be like, uh oh, because
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: they should have lost one to the Hawks and they
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: lost two. They should have lost two to the Sixers,
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: they lost three. And then this one they should have
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: lost maybe three to the Heat.
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: They lost four. Like they just went and they went below.
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: I'll say this, I thought the Celtics were gonna win
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: the series because I was like, well, they'll screw around.
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: The best bet on the here on the series was
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: Heat plus two and a half. Got a great price
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: on it because of how the market overrated this Celtics team.
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: But even I didn't.
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: Think that they would actually lose the thing. And yet
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: that's kind of the thing here is like every time
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: that we think that you've gone as low as you
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: can go, Boston went one step lower and that really
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: cost them what should have been a chance at a
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: return to the finals and at least a shot at
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: an NBA Championship. They would have been favored versus the
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: Denver Nuggets, Like that's not speculation. I talked to book makers.
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: Would have been favorites, not just because of home court,
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: even past home court. They would have been favorites in
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: that series versus Denver. They blew a golden opportunity versus
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: an eight seed. Tough as nails eight seed. But this
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: is a huge wasted opportunity and if we really look back,
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: it's it's an example of how when when the market
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: either has the liability or power rating on a team
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: that simply isn't commiserate with how the playoffs are operating,
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: you've got an opportunity to fade that side and make
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: a big profit on it.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I'll just say just the fact that we
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: didn't get Jason Tatum. Like again, the Sixers did the tank.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: We tried to do the whole process, and that was
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: one of the biggest misses I think. I mean for
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: me as a Sistress fan, when the biggest misses ever
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: was trading up taking Folds, not taking Tatum. Tatum has
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: been incredible, and so to me, it's fun to troll
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: Tatum to these Boston fans because they put such high
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: expectations on the kid. He doesn't really live up to him. Again,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: he's a great score, he does a lot of great things,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: but we just see a time time again this team.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: I feel like you just talking about the bookmakers keep
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: overrating them. So to me, man, if you if you
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: had the goal to keep going against the heat, you're
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: just dead right now, right, I mean they've literally we've
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: never seen this before in an eight seed like this.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: Really well were they? I think they were plus seven
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: hundred plus eight hundred against the Bucks, plus like one
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: fifty plus one twenty against the Knicks, and then this
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: series there plus four hundred. It's crazy to think, Chad,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: they were down three with three minutes to go against
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: the Bulls in a playing game, and now here they
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: are in the NBA Finals. So this is not saying
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: this is one of the most fun seasons ever FRAMBA,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: but I feel like this is the dream as a
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: fan of the NBA, right, we wanted to be. Any
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: team needs one or two superstars and you can have
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: a chance of the NBA finals, right, And it felt
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: like the Lebron Err not that it took away from that,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: but it felt like the Big Three became a thing.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Right these last ten years, it was all about the
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: Big Three. You had to get these superstars, right to
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: make a chance. I'm love this. It's giving me major
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: Dirk vibes. Right, it's Jimmy's the Dirk of their team.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: I just I love it. I just love I love
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: the way where the NBA is at right now in
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: the sense that it gives you hope. It's all these
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: people are bitching about this playing games. Everyone's bitching about
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: the Ncason Tournament. I love it all just because it's
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: just once again, it's exciting. Where all you need is
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: one superstar and a bunch of role players, you can
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: make this work.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Now, let me give you some context on how close
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the Heat came from not even advancing in the playoffs.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: The night I was talking about this last night, I
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: had some buddies over to watch the game, and they
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: were with their kids and my kid and were My
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: buddy reminded me, hey, weren't you like at the Yankees
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: game when the Heat and the Bulls were playing, because
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: he and I were testing at the time. I'm like, yeah,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: And in the time between the game ending, us leaving
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: our seats and then getting to the subway, the Bulls
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: went from ahead to losing the game. It was like
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: it wasn't even three minutes of game time. It was
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: basically three minutes of real time between the Heat winning,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: losing and winning that game. Now they're going to the
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: NBA Finals. Let's talk about the NBA Finals. The Nuggets
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: opened as minus three sixty favorites, which was surprising to
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: me that it was that high, given how I thought
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: the public would view the Heat. So, Matt, you just
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: shook your head when I said that was surprising to me.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: That's not surprising to you.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: No.
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: I mean, look, ultimately, we see kind of the same
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: thing with what we just talked about on the flip
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: side of the Celtics, where they had to keep overrating
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: the Celtics based off of the power rating and where
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: the books had these these teams on the other side,
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: and the liability is like a big factor in this too.
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: Boston picked up a huge chunk of championship.
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: Liability when they were rattling off wins back in early
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: December and January. Similarly, the Nuggets took on a lot
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: of money, like they just have a bigger liability on Denver,
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: and Denver's a one seed like Denver's I'll just say
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: it's like Denver's a better team. They're a way better team.
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: Doesn't mean they can't they they can't lose this series.
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: But Boston was a better team Milwaukee. I think the
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: Joannis injury changes it and some of their historical stuff,
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: like it was a really bad matchup and the Bucks
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: were falling apart. I kind of chronicle a little bit
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: of that this season and Action Network, but ultimately, like
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: those teams were better and the Heat still won. And
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: like having said, like that's what we want to see
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: in the NBA is more of this chaos, more of
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: the opportunity for these underdogs. But the Nuggets have to
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: be a significant favorite here, like they just have to
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: be in part, I'll say this, Sharps have been on
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: Denver for years, like that has been a team that
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: has consistently accumulated a high percentage of sharp moves of money.
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: Of all the things that we track over an Action Network,
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: We've seen that consistently come through, and you've seen line
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: movements go that way. So I'm not surprised at all
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: that the Nuggets open as a heavy favorite.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: It's one of the reasons why in the Action.
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: Slack we were all not rooting, but like Boston would
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: have been a preferred betting outcome because we would have
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: been able to get the Nuggets at a plus number
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: Versus we knew we were gonna have to pay the
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: juice and really get squeezed if we were going to
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: bet Denver in this matchup, and you're seeing that now,
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: So I'm not surprised that an eight seed who had it.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: By the way, they are the first.
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: There has never been a team with a regular season
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: minus point differential to win the NBA Championship. The closest
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: was the seventy eight Bullets. The Heat were outscored in
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: the regular season. That's how rough they were from a
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: mediocre perspective. So I don't think there's a way for
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers to adequately kind of put the number to a
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: place where how it feels to us right now. But
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: you also have to remember Miami did go seven with
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: this Boston team. Miami did have a three to zero
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: lead and it went seven. It did take them going
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: on the road in Game seven and the Celtics completely
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: falling apart. So like, this Heat team is far from
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: a juggernaut versus if you look on the other side,
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: Denver's resume is tough to pick apart. They went five
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: with the Wolves, they went six with the Suns after
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: Devin Booker literally shot eighty percent over two games, close
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: them out in dominant fashion in Game six on the road,
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: and then swept the Los Angeles Lakers and Lebron James.
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: So I think it's difficult to be able to get
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: to a powerating that feels closer. But I also don't
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: necessarily know that the numbers on the series are wrong
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: from a book perspective.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: Now, is it a coaching mismatch or is this in
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: your opinion, are these both these coaches pretty equal where
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: Spow does have a huge edge like he did in
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: that Celtics matchup, or is this you know, more spread
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: out than we realized, where Spoe actually does have a
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: leg up on you know, this Denver team, which, like
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: you just said, Denver is very good, but have they
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: been tested where I mean it feels like the Heat
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: had been tested for two months now. So to me,
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: I definitely give a mental edge it feels like to
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: the Heat. But I would love to hear your perspective
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: on this.
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll say this that I've heard a lot about
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: the Nuggets mental perspective and coaching was the big question
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: mark for a lot of folks here in Denver. But
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: Michael Malone's been awesome. He's had the edge part of
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: this too. And I've talked about this on the show before.
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: It's about when you make adjustments you don't want to
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: be the first one to have to throw stuff out
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: And we saw that versus the Suns where they're just
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: flipping guys in and out of the lineup, in and
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: out of the rotation, trying to do everything. The Lakers
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: same deal, they're just throwing stuff out there, trying to
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: catch up with Denver. Denver has waited and been able
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: to get to their adjustments later, and talking to coaches
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: throughout my time in the league, like that's.
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: A big advantage. You want to be you don't want
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: to be the first one to adjust. You want to
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: be the last one to adjust, so you.
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: Have the final answers when you when you get to
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: the end of the road, you're the one that makes
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: that last tweak to things. Look, SPO's a better coach
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: because I think Spoe is the best coach in the
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: NBA currently with Greg Popovic coaching, you know, a rebuilding team,
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: the best team coach in terms of contending right now
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: is Eric Spolstra. Like that's the best coach in the
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: league right now. I think it's Spoe and then Kerr
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: and then we can talk about everybody else.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: But the difference here.
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: Is that Spoe went against Mike Budenholzer, who is definitely
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: a we do what we do and we don't change
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: anything guy. Then he went against Tom Thibodeau, who is
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: literally the best coach to fade in the NBA playoffs.
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: That's what we've discovered in bet Labs. And then he
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: FoST Joe as the action slacker started calling him Joe Mozzarella,
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: which is not fair at old Joe, but rough series,
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: rough playoffs, Joe has put in a very difficult situation
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: being thrust into this position basically two weeks before the season.
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: It's hard for me to blame Joe. Mizula that said,
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: like that coaching mismatch was massive. This is a massive
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: Like this gets into Spolstra has fewer options at his
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: disposal in terms of personnel, he has more ways to
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: use them. Malone has better personnel, a few more players
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: that he can use, and he's got a number of
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: ways that he can use them. Can Spoe figure something out?
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: Like there's a lot of the conversation where this gets to,
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: which is just like, well, Spoe figure something out, and
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: even Spoe would tell you, and like you can go
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: back and listen to his comments about Yokic in particulars
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: just not truely. There's some stuff that he can't figure out.
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: They don't have a solve for Nicola Jokic in the series.
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: They do not have one. They're not going to figure
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: out Nikola Jokic. They got to figure out everybody else
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: and hope that they can hit threes. But as far
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: as the coaching advantage, SPO does have an advantage, I
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: just don't know that it's enough of one to make
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: up for the gaps in the other areas.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, every week you can catch us recording
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: the Favorites live on AMP, the new live radio app
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: that lets you chat with.
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: Our crew while we record the show.
• 25:11
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• 25:13
  Speaker 1: follow at the Favorites there to get notified when we
• 25:16
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• 25:18
  Speaker 1: we finish every AMP session with a special trivia prize
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: only available to our AMP listeners, So check it out.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: You had a really good story that came out early
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: this morning about the most important players in the heats
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: in the Heat Nuggets NBA Finals. It was really interesting
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: and surprising. Do you know why I think it's surprising.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: Because I have Jimmy Butler, I think fifth Onelie.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Tell people, tell people your top three most important players
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: in the Heat Nuggets Finals.
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: So number one is then Kohala Jokic.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: If Yogic isn't great, then the Heat lower that margin
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: for error and they get closer. Okay, If Jokic isn't good,
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: it drops below. If Nikola Jokic does have a bad series,
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: which he has not, He's been the best player in
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: the NBA playoffs and the most dominant player in the league.
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: If he has a bad series, then he can win
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: the series. It's not for sure. Yokic can have a
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: bad series, and if the Heat shooting regresses, then Denver
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: can can eke this out in unimpressive fashion. But Yogic
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: is number one. If Yokic doesn't have a good series,
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: everything changes. If he has a great series, I don't
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: know how Miami's gonna be able to keep this competitive.
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: Two is Jamal Murray, because that's gonna be the pressure
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: point for the Heat. The heater gonna try and wear
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: him out. The heater going to try and target him defensively.
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: The heater are going to try and limit what he
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: does because they're gonna try and get it to where
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: Jokic can score thirty thirty, five forty. If we can
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: keep him under seven to six six. If we can
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: keep him under that mark, we're okay. But we can't
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: let Jamal Murray also average thirty as he did on
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: fifty forty ninety splits versus the Lakers. Teams have been
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: really surprised that Jamal Murray has been the guy that
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: he was in the bubble, but he has been awesome
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: for them, and so he's a big pressure point in this.
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: When Murray struggled in the Sun Series, those games were
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: much more competitive in Game two, three, and four. Murray
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: settled down in five and six and the Nuggets won
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: those games easily. They're also gonna put a lot of
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: pressure on defensively, so Murray's in a big question mark
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: there as well.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: Number three is Caleb Martin.
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: Caleb Friggin' Martin, who averaged under ten points in the
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: regular season, and versus the Boston Celtics averaged nineteen points
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: and six assists on sixty percent shooting from the field
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: and forty.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: Nine percent shooting from three point range.
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: If Caleb Martin is able to be that guy again
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: for Miami, okay, Now that he'd have some firepower.
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: Because Jimmy's gonna do what Jimmy does. Mmy's gonna have
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: great games, and Jimmy's gonna have games where you're like,
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: where was Butler?
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: At Their key is gonna have to be Caleb Martin
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: being the guy that is able to step up and
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: provide some more offense, because I don't think you can
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: rely on Bam at a Bio, particularly with what he's
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: got on his plate defensively. So it's gonna have to
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: be Caleb Martin taking advantage of how the Nuggets are
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: gonna have to send help towards Butler and at a
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: Bio and Martin punishing these teams, especially if the Nuggets
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: don't stay attached to him the way the Celtics didn't.
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: I think Caleb Martin is the most imp important player
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: for the Heat because they gotta find offense to make
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: up the difference.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: That Caleb Martin, though, I was just gonna say a
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: real quick chat, he is the definition of that is
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: under point total every game in this series. He literally
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: went over it all seven games. Last series. Basketball is
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: weird like this. People get in rhythms. His rhythm will
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: be broken, right, they have seven days off here. He
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: has a lot of time to think too. He wasn't
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: thinking his last two weeks, right, it was just a game,
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: a day off, a game, a day off, a game
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: to day off. I love him to fade him. Yeah,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: had two days rests, but you know what I mean,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: It's just it's one of those where he had a
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: nice run against Boston. I could pletely see him being
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: a nice fade in this upcoming series, just because we
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: see time and time again. Yeah, he had an incredible run.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: I think the Nuggets are gonna see the same exact tape, right,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: They're gonna be like, Okay, we'll make someone else beat
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: us with these threes. Because against Boston, if you go
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: back and watch, all the three pointers were catching, shooting
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: a rhythm. It was one of those where he was
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: in transition. They're come up the floor, he kicks out
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: to the right, they kick it out to him, he
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: just shoots it in rhythm. I think the Nuggets will
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: be able to stop those kind of things. So I
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: love what you're saying because to me, you're right, like
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: the heat, if they're gonna win it, he's gotta be
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: one of the guys that steps up. I just can't
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: see him doing it again. It's like he kind of
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: used up all of his magic against his Boston team.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: We expect him to come back then on Earth. There's
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: a reason his point total was eight and a half
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: most of those games against Boston. Right, the books aren't dumb.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: They're waiting for him to come back to the Earth.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: So to me, I'm talking to a couple pros after
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: that game last night. One of their favorite guys to
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: fade this upcoming upcoming series is glib Mortens total. So
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: if is over unders ten and a half points, I'm
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: going to be on that under for sure.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Well, Matt, to take it back to what you were
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: saying about, one of Spolstra's gifts as a coach is
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: he is fluid, Right, he will take whatever is in
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: front of him and make a system that matches or
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: finds the weakness or plays to his team's strength. Cody
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Zeller out of the lineup, Kevin Love out of the lineup,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Ducan Robinson has barely been playing this season. All of
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: a sudden, he's central to the Heat success against the Celtics.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Tyler Hero potentially coming back by Game three in this
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: series to Simon's point, what are the adjustments, who gets
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: most impacted, what players get most impacted positively or negatively?
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: For the heat where we could find some player prop
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: betting opportunities.
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's gonna be interesting to see.
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: I think Bam at Abayo is gonna have at least
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: opportunities in this series. Now, Bam tends to disappear for
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: long stretches, and that's where you get concerned. But what
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: Jimmy Butler is gonna do is he's the Nuggets will
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: switch everything except with NIKOLEA.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: Jokicic.
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: So if he puts, if he's got the ball and
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: he wants to target Michael Porter Junior and mpg's guarding
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: Kale Martin, they'll run that screen to get MPG on him,
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: and then they'll run it back with BAM screening with
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: Yokic defending, and BAM's gonna have opportunities because the only
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: way that the Nuggets can really play defensively with Nikola
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: Jokic and pick and roll is playing at the level.
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: So there's two guys on the ball, which means that
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: if you have your big man, your screener slipping middle,
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: you're gonna have opportunities there. Butler's gonna be that screener.
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: Sometimes they'll run that action too, So I think Butler
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: assists in the series is probably gonna be one that
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: I would look for the over, particularly because I think
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: that they're gonna make him into a passer and that's
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: going to open up some opportunities. But Bam Outebayo is
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: going to have short range small jumpers, and those are
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: shots that coming in rhythm, Those are shots he can make.
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: Those are shots that he can hit. That's an opportunity
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: where Bam could actually have an impact on the offensive end.
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: The problem with Bam really is like sometimes like you
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: just you can't understand his shot process. Sometimes he's like
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: confident and steps into it and is great, and then
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: sometimes he's just like I don't know, no, let's keep
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: it moving, and it's just like guy, like you had
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: space there, you got to take that shot. I think
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: BAM's one that's gonna be opened. Gave Vincent might be
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: an opportunity to play the over. I'm actually gonna be
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: looking for high Smith, who those will be late props
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: that are added very very late, and you may not
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: even see him until game two. I think high Smith's
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: gonna have to play in the series because the heater
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: at such a size disadvantage. They're gonna want to get
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: as much muscle out there as possible. They need athleticism.
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: So I think high Smith is maybe an opportunity to
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: play some overs because he'll be a low point total,
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: low three point total, all those.
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: Type of things.
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: I think there's an opportunity there to play those. Other
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: than that, it's hard to predict. Could be Gabe Vincent,
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: could be it was Gabe Vincent in the Heat series,
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: in the Bucks series or in the Celtic series. In
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: the Bucks series, but not versus the Knicks. Is it
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: max Strus? It was more max Strus in the next series,
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: but not so much in the other two. We kind
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: of have to see where's false rat things that he
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: can get the advantage. But I will say that, like,
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: there aren't good options here in general based off of
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: what they're facing, trying to balance on the offensive and
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: defensive side of the floor.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Bam Adebio at times in this series rivaled Jalen Brown
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: for looking like he was playing in oven mits. So
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: frustrating to watch both of them frustrating to watch, all right,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: So potentially Jimmy Butler assists over potentially Bam points over
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: look for those opportunities. When we think about the series,
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: are there any bets right now? Game one Nuggets are
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: eight and a half point favorites, line open to two
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: and a half. Total open at to eighteen and a half.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Got bet up by professionals to nineteen and a half. Simon,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: what have you played anything so far?
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I did. I did the lazy bet of I
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: took Nuggets minus one and a half for the series,
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: so I took them to win in six hopefully again.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: I love everything about what Miami has done. I feel
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: like match just touched on it right where I kind
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: of like to take the best player in these matchups
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: in the finals. Right. It's kind of not that it's
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: based off Kobe, but it is like back in the
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: day when Kobe was making those runs, it was always like, okay,
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: am I really gonna go against Kobe in the NBA Finals.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: And I've kind of stuck to that where it's like,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: if I have a generational talent, I usually like to
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: back them, and then if that jay initial talent has
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: a better team around him, like Kobe did all those runs, right,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: he had the gasoli he had buying them and buying
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: them was really good. He had the pieces around him.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: I feel like the Joker has that right now. It's like,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: if this was I agree with Matt, if this was Boston,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: I probably would have been looking towards Boston in this matchup.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: They just had the better team. They have the more
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: complete team than Denver does in this matchup. I know
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: Matt Mooreson this a little message that is the Heat
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: really an eight seed? Right? They' probably should have been
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: a three seed because they won their division. I don't
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: really view them as that though. I don't really view
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: them as a team that should be in a three seed.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: I do think they were where they should be, Like
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: they are an eight seed. They were really bad during
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: the season. They had some really bad stretches, and yes,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: they've kind of figured out here at the point. But
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: I just think Denver's been the best team from October
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: until now, right, They've just all throughout the season, through
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: the highs and lows, Denver was just consistent, really good.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: To me, the biggest advantage was Denver at home. So
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: if I'm betting them, I'm taking them at minus one
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: and a half. I think it's minus one fifty in
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: most books for the series them they win in one
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: six games. But again, you got guys like Chad. I know, Chad,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: you like the Heat. I think people will come on
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: the other side. So if you're a little worried about it,
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: you can wait it out this first game, because this
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: is really going to be a feeler, right this we
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: always see the first game is such a feeler where
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: anything could happen. I wouldn't be shocked at either side
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: blew out the other side, right if the Heat won
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: big I want to be shocked because Denver has just
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: been doing what for I mean, you just said they
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: had ninety is off from their last thing. Now they
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: have another week on top of that, so that's sixteen
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: days between their last game and the first game the
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: NBA Finals. That's a long time between two really, you know,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: you're going from sweeping a team to now you're being
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: thrown at the NBA Finals. Compared to the Heat, They're
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: going from a game seven to whatever six days off
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: and then they're back in the game one the NBA Finals.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: I just think that's a big advantage to the Heat.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: But I just like Denver in this series too.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Hold on. First of all, I don't even know where
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: you're getting your math on these days, but like they
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: got too gay. Two days between the end of the
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Celtics series and the beginning of the finals.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: I said that Nuggets had sixteen days off.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: The Nuggets had, but they don't have sixteen days off.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: They got that ended. It's like, uh wow, it's pretty close. Actually, yeah, Ago,
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: I haven't. I haven't declared that I like the heat
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: in this series. I actually.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: You literally said I like the heat.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: To beat the Nuggets.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: You said in our last show, what do you want from.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: I want Mitchell to find the tape and bring it back,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: because I don't think I would have said that. I can't.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: I can't say that because I actually love both of
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: these teams so much. And unlike NFL betting, where I
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: don't bet any emotion at all, NBA betting emotion comes
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: into it for me because I want to root for
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: the team that I'm betting on. I'm much more of
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: an amateur when it comes to NBA betting. I realize
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: I'm setting myself up for anyone to say I'm an
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: amateur at all times. But I don't know, like I
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: love the narratives for both of these teams. I love Jokic,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: I love Jamal Murray coming back. I love the Heat.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: I want Jimmy Butler to win an NBA title. I
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: want Spolstroe win an NBA title without Lebron. So it
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: relies on sort of his coaching genius. Matt, what do
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: I do here?
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: To me? It's nuggets. I also bet.
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: I like how Simon was like the lazy bet. It's
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: the best value because it does give respect.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: To the Heat.
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: You're basically paying the juice on giving the Heat enough
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: respect to get two games. I think there's probably a
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: little bit of value on nuggets minus two and a
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: half on the series spread.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Honestly up as a nightmare. If you guys want to
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: know how bad it is.
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: NBA dot COM's got matchup data going back to the
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: last three seasons, and it could be a little bit
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: wonkys and context, but if you look at what Nicole
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: Jokic has done when match up with Bam Autebayo, I'm
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: not kidding you. These are his numbers per forty two
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: minutes of play. Jokic's average, I'm not kidding. Triple check
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: this math he's averaged fifty points in twenty five assists
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: per forty two minutes of matchup time.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: Okay, even if you're.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Like this, that's ridicous.
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: You're right, that's you're not going to average fifty twenty five.
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: My point, though, he just got done moving through Anthony Davis.
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: Like Water and Bam is smaller, they can't handle this
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: matchup and Dever's got a lot of advantages here. Plus,
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: the home court has been great for Denver where they're
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: undefeated and been great all season. We taught, we've talked
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: a lot of the rest, and the difference is here.
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: Home teams with more rest in game one of the
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: finals are seven and two straight up and against the spread.
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: Road dogs off of a game.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Seven ten in these playoffs two thousand and three.
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: Since two thousand and three in the playoffs, road dogs
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: off a game seven and since two thousand and three
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: are eleven and twenty five straight up, seventeen and nineteen
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: against the spread. If you get past the semifinals, if
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: you get in conference finals or finals, it's five and
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: fourteen straight up, nine to ten against the spread. And
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: this is what we call the Raheem Palmer trend from
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: our former colleague at Action Network now with the Ringer.
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: With the Celtics lost the Heat. Teams that win a
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: Game seven are now thirty six and fifty in the
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: following series all together since nineteen eighty eight.
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: For the series.
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: It takes it out of you. We just do not
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: see these teams come back. Denver's a if the Heat.
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: If you think the Heat are gonna shoot better than
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: forty three percent, which is what they shot versus Boston,
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: and they shot forty five percent from three versus the Bucks.
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: If you think they're gonna do that again, you should
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: bet Miami plus two and a half. If you do
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: not think that they will do that, you need to
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: be on the Nuggets here. I can't give out any
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: other analysis. They're the better team with the best player,
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: with a matchup advantage and home court versus a team
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: off game seven if we take out if we take
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: the names off the jerseys. I said this before that
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: that Nuggets series versus the Lakers when I took the Nuggets.
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: You take the names off the jerseys on one team
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: is as matchup advantages here, I'll say Nuggets mins one
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: and a half. But I'm just gonna tell you if
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: Simon's right and the public comes in on Miami, I'm
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: gonna be on Nuggets mis two and a half as well.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: All right, so we like Jimmy Butler assists we're thinking
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: about bam Adebio points over on both of those player props.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Simon and Matt both like the Nuggets minus one and
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: a half. I probably like that too. I'm just emotionally
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: not ready to commit because I'm such a huge fan
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: of the Heat, the Heat culture pat Riley, Eric Spostra,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler, like, I love watching Jimmy Butler play. I
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: just the way the Heat were able to come back
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: from ten down in that Game six in the final
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: three minutes, and the way the Celtics were not able
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: to make it a game in Game seven is the
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: epitome to me of how those coaches and how those
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: players handle their business. Let me throw out one long
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: shot MVP who is my favorite memed player on TikTok,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: who never passes the ball, Michael Porter Junior one hundred
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: to one, because if he goes crazy, he's got a
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: great stroke, a great stroke. If he goes crazy, he
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: could he could dominated a couple of games.
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: I think playing MPJ overs on threes is a good
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: call here. I was looking at the size of the heat.
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: Caleb Martin six ' five high. Smith is six ' five.
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: They have almost no dudes over six five. You know
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: who's also six five, Austin Reeves.
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: You know what I have him in?
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: Austin Reeves a mashup on MPJ. He tread him like
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: a ball rack. He just shot over him. The problem
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: I think you're gonna find the chat is like historically
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: and we I think last night's game is a perfect
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: example of this. What more does Caleb Martin have to
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: do to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP? But he didn't
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: like the best players with the both points win these awards.
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: So as much as I love the idea of an
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: MPG or a Jamal Murray or an Aaron Gordon or
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: a Caleb Martin winning Finals MVP because it would be
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: such a cool story, it's not what happens these The
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: people that vote on it know who are the most
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: integral pieces to these teams. If MPJ has a huge
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: scoring series, guess how he's getting buckets off of Jokic passes,
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: which is only gonna make Yokic look better. So I
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: don't think we can get there on MVP, but I
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: will say I like where your head's at in terms
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: of MPJ having a big series. He's gonna have a
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: lot of scoring and rebounding opportunities against a smaller heat squad.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Do you feel like Bruce Brown has the prettiest finger
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: roll since George Griffin?
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: You know what uh to?
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: Because you guys are such a football show. I've started
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: every time that he his entire offense in the NBA Playoffs,
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: he gets the ball off of a stop and just
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: runs straight line to the other end to get that
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: finger roll. I've started calling it full back dive because
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: there's nothing complicated about it. The teams absolutely know it's coming.
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: It's goal line formation. They're absolutely gonna run this full
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: back and it's just every single time he's diving straight
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: at you and no team is. Every team is still
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: confused in transition, like I don't know, is it play action? No,
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: you idiot, They're definitely running full back dive every single time.
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: With Bruce Brown, it's been amazing. He's been such a joy.
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: He's been the third best Denver nugget throughout the NBA Playoffs.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: He's awesome. To watch Simon, you got anything anything we
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: want to ask before I let Matt go, No, I just.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Would harp on what he talked about in Game sevens.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, he made a great call the last time
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: we had him on about what happened. Boston played the
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: six Ers in the game seven and then they went
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: home and hosted the Heat at home. In that first game,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: the Heat beat him right at they beat him on
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: the road. So you doing the same spot here, Yeah,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell just sent it to us. They played Thursday,
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: so I don't know why. In my mind, I thought
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: they didn't play until Sunday. Prety quick turnaround, right, they played?
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: They played Monday night. Now they flew to Denver or
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: let their bodies get used to the what it is
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: the altitude in Denver. That's a lot. I mean to me,
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: the Heat and the Celtic both look cooked at the
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: end of the like in the third quarter, both those
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: teams seem like they were dragon. That's a lot to
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: ask the team, this team to turn around now go
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: play a Denver team that's just been resting. So I'm
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: kind of feeling even better now about my bet on
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: Denver minus one and a half. It just feels like
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: the Heat aren't in the same spot they were against
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: Boston team, but they kind of had that rest advantage.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: It's flipped other way here. Denver's got the rest advantage
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: and they are the best team at home this season. People,
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: They're it's not even close either. They have by far
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: the best record at home. I think the only time
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: they lost ray It was that Maverick's game like three
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: months ago. I could be wrong, Man Moore, but I
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: just I feel like they haven't lost at home in months.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: So to me, Denver at home game one. It's a
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: big spread, but I'll most likely beyond the minus eight
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: and I'm on them for the series. So I am
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: clearly all in on Denver to take this.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: One reminder, the Final Star June first, eight thirty on
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: ABC A thirty Eastern. I want to wholeheartedly thank whoever's
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: decision it was the NBA TNTABC to be starting all
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: of these conference title games and NBA title games at
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: eight thirty it is. It is a game changer for
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: me last night to be able to go to bed
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: by ten forty five. It's so healthy. I cannot tell
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: you how much more enjoyable it is for me to
• 46:36
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• 47:20
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  Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Download the podcast from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts,
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