Latest / Financial Survival Network / 2024 Market Cycles & Economic Insights with Charles Nenner #5991

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2024 Market Cycles & Economic Insights with Charles Nenner #5991 · Financial Survival Network

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Well, the different cycles like than the stock market. So what we do
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is we have wrong with them cycles and short them cycles. We do it
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on crude, natural gas, the currencies, everything. So one important one
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is the Hannitia cycle. You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you
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get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying
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times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to
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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network
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now more than ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm
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your host, Charry Mutz, and with us is the Esteem Forecaster Charles Nenner.
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And Charles, it's always great to have you back on the show to
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talk about things that have happened and then things that may happen. The impact
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of cycles on markets and odd economies and the world often underlooked by many of
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your colleagues out there, and yet the cycles continue. We got this one
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hundred year cycle of you know war, we got a sixty year cycle of
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election chicanery nineteen sixty twenty twenty. And if anyone doesn't believe the cycles are
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there, just go look up at the sun, look at the just a
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monthly cycle. When do the tides rise when we have a full moon like
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last night. So with intros out of the way, just tell us a
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stock market record highs? Does it continue? If so, for how long?
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And then what Well, we're still long at a stock market and we
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have a little bit more of what we're making a roller term top, we've
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got to publish it on the on the website, on the weekly cycles,
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on the weekly cycles stop. So just to go about cycles for people who
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don't know much about what we're doing. So cycles actually is an interpretation of
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the facts. So the facts are not important, but the interpretation and what
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you see right now, I don't ask here anybody, but I'd be saying
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that for the last ten years, you're going to have a combination of Iran,
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Russia, China and North Korea against the West. The West who's busy
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with the we're going to name you sir, your missus or whatever that's very
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busy with. I saw that over the last year they picked up more than
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eight hundred people on the Southern water that were on a terrorist list. So
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I talked to people and that says you can, and you can assume that
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ten times as many you went through. Americas are not used to that because
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there were an island, but they're not used to being a taxed on me
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inside and being broken up on the left of the right. So the interesting
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thing is, as long as a cycle doesn't turn down, nobody seem used
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to care. And you'll see when later this month's the cycles are turning down.
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Next night, next month I started turning down, that everybody suddenly realizes
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how bad the situation is. I, as a European, I am really
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shocked that nobody sees how bad the situation is. So again, the facts
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we already know. It just seems to facts don't care. But as soon
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as the cycles stopped, then everybody I was worrying about what's going on.
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And then the market goes down. Isn't it funny how that works? That
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nothing is important until it makes until it finds its way to your attention,
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and then it becomes the most important thing in the world until the next thing
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comes. All right, right, right, right, all right, So
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markets, and we're talking here, all of the indices they got a few
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more weeks to go, and then they turned down in ceborary. Yeah,
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because they get it close to a recession in a couple of months, and
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then the corporate profits will go down and the markets are going to anticipate it.
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Yeah, what about our soft landing year that's coming. I don't believe
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in any self landing. I don't know where they get it. It's a
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publics it's politics. I mean, with the indicators and the budget deficit of
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whatever's going on, and the war cycle, how can you have a soft
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landing. It's going to be very, very bad, the worst cycle.
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So let's talk about this war cycle. Last Great World War was ended in
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nineteen forty five, started in the late mid to late thirties. How often
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do we have wars? According to the cycles? Well, there different cycles,
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like in the stock market. So what we do is we have longer
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term cycles and short term cycles. We do it on crude, all natural
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gas, the currencies, everything. So one important one is the one hundred
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year cycle. And I've been saying that on different television stations started ten to
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fifteen years ago. I said, you know, the Second World was actually
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a continuation of the First World War, and that was nineteen forty nineteen eighteen.
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And if you go back on hundred years, you got Napoleon in the
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timeframe, and if you go back one hundred years, it's called the Habsburger.
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And if you would Google just see that one hundred year cycle. You
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look at the second decade of a new century and you see that you know
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in eleven hundred, twelve thirty, fifteen hundred, back to to to the
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birth of Genus, always there was in the second decade of the cycle of
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the century. Now, as I've been mentioning, there were more. The
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smaller cycle turned up the middle of last year, and that's why I went
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in trouble. And the more cycles they're going to turn up, so we're
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going to have more trouble. And it has to do with the fact is
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if you can can accept that there's no free choice, if you think anything
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can happen, then you cannot work with cycles. But if you think things
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don't move at random, then you should try the cycles. If you go
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to my website, you know you can go thirty days for free, don't
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even have the credit card. You see all the cycles, how they work.
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And then if you compare it to the news, you find it very
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interesting that the news always comes afterwards, and something has got to trigger a
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market coming down or bounds going up, or whatever happens. Hey, and
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I'm reviewing this. If you've been watching this show for any amount of time,
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we've talked about this before. But for those of you who are just
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coming on board, not familiar with Charles's body of work, I highly suggest
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that you go over to a site. There's nothing in it for us.
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It's Charles Nnner n er dot com. Link will be in the show.
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That's this interview. You got a question for Charles and myself, shoot me
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an email to kl at Carrie luds dot com. So move it along here.
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Gold so gold, The gold's been training consistently over two thousand dollars.
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The ounce really ended the year over two thousand as stayed above it. Do
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you think we have one more plunge left before it really takes off? What
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do you see gold doing in the next year. Well, cycles worked very
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well on the I think last year we have the track effort on our website.
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I think we made sixty percent in gold. Gigis trading the trading range.
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It's not ready yet. Everybody is losing money on the gold because every
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time it goes at twenty one hundred, it fails. It's not so complicated.
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Even if you don't look at cycles. You look at the chart,
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a monthly chart, you see five, four or five or six times twenty
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one hundred, it's over. They sell it again. And it's another interesting
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thing. You would say gold would do something because of the threat of war.
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Not as long as the cycles don't bottom. So it still takes a
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couple of weeks for the cycle to bottom. But we definitely want to see
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a nice blue market in gold and silver, okay, and any idea of
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how high it can go or so we got to see twenty one hundred though
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before anything that's going to happen in gold. No, no, no,
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no, no, no no. When the cycle's bottom, then we start
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buying. And if for people who don't watch cycles, I just say once
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it closes about twenty one hundred, then it's okay. But eightygree you goes
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a lot of you know, a lot of points before it gets at one
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hundred. Yeah, understood, understood. So yes, obviously that is the
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case. And yeah it's got a bottom. Where do you think the bottom
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is? Goal? Is it in the nineteen hundreds, eighteen hundreds. Well
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the two possibilities. But again, you know, it doesn't got anybody to
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go to the website. It's all there. I don't know about every asset
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that we follow exactly what the levels are. You know, we do all
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the currencies, we do the gold to sil with the crude, all natural
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gas European market. So I don't want to make a mistake. So the
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best thing is to log in for free and look up what the levels are.
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Yeah, and I get to report every day and I read it first
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thing I do. I go through my email, I read your report,
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and you know when you get set an update during the day, to kind
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of drop everything and read it. So when we're looking at let's look at
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oil. Oil has been kind of bouncing around here, kind of trendless,
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but trendless to lower. Is it going to move with gold here? Is
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it cycle aligned or is separate cycle? Well, the different cycles, So
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the short of cycle bottoms next week, but the weekly cycle is still down
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into late March. So what you see then is you can have a bounce
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on the upside, but the trade of below has to wait until the weekly
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cycle's bottom. And one thing, I've got a lot of questions about especially
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since our last interview was Copper, as it's called doctor Copper. Doctor Copper
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has been showing a little bit more strength lately, you know, still not
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making any moves, but it's been stronger of recent I tell you honestly,
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I have somebody does copper in my team, and I personally don't look at
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copper because it's not something we really invest in. That's a person takes more
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care of the economic indicators. So I can help you with this one,
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all right. So all right, so we'll we'll look to your team for
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that one. So I'll ask me I can ask them to I can ask
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them to publish the Copper again. So maybe someday I asked them to publish.
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So whoever wants to know of it, they can look at the cycles
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we published on Sunday. Oh excellent, all right, So look at Charles
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site on Sunday and you'll get it to his team's take on copper. So
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not guess it has been like awful, you know that has It has been
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wonderful for us because if we look at the track record last year, we
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were up more than two hundred percent. It's the easiest one to trade up
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down. The cycles are perfect. So now we strew it from two point
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seventy on the May contract and we're close to covering because the daily cycle bottoms
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in a few days. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's good if you're
10:56
if you're a speculator, and you called it right. But like you say,
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they call it the widow maker, right, Well, the window maker
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is something else, which you know personally, The window maker is a certain
11:07
place in the art and I personally have the problem that it's very hard to
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operate and actually for many years have to be operated. Thank god, they
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have ninety problems, but they cannot operate at that spot. So that's why
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I called the window maker, because you know, a lot of husband die
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early because of that problem. Sure, all right, So so hey,
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when we're when we're looking at the energy markets, you say, the natural
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gas trades almost perfectly according to its cycles. Yeah, so when do we
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when do we see it's low come in the short and blow we see in
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in a few days, a few days. And to be a trainable low
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or h got to be a trader low. How low can it go?
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Well, the maximum is two point nine. I think we saw two point
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of thirty. I don't know what happened today, so we're not waiting for
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the last week and always show it for two point seventy and we're close to
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a reversal, all right, And so it's just so you know, there's
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so much natural gas in the world, and yet with the Ukraine Russia war
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that through the entire Asian and the European marketing into turmoil the year before last.
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Now it looks like it's settled down and their prices have probably bottomed out.
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Well as you know it. I don't deal with the news because I
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don't think it's relevant, you understand. So I listened to you, you
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know more about it tonight. I only know when as it goes up down,
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how high it goes and how row it goes. And I did this
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for gold, but sex we might say, you know, with a lot
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of billions and a lot of success, and even over there, they're sometimes
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of waiting for the news. It says you have to wait for the news
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to come out because the cycle will wait. The interpretation to give you one
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example, I don't know. Maybe we did advance on the show to explain
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it for newcomers, saying you buy IBM at one hundred and fifty and it
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goes to two hundreds, and the IBM comes out with a very good record.
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The quarterly results excellent. Now the question is is IBM going up and
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down? Now, IBM, you would say, goes up because the results
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were excellent, and then the walls the journal will right. People poured into
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IBM because the door great. But if the cycle sat down, it goes
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down and then we'll see journal rights. They don't think they do better next
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year, so too profit, which means is even if you know the news,
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if you don't know how people look at the news, it's not going
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to help, right, gotcha. So looking at the dollar coming up,
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you're seeing more weakness. He will go again because the questions always get is
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in what time period it happened to be that in one or two days we'll
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see some weakness short term on the dollar again, Okay, longer term.
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Last time we spoke said the bricks really are going to start presenting a kind
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of alternative to the dollar. It's it's that and it's not against them,
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not into politics, but the way that the United States asserts itself. People
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are losing all faith in the United States. So that is lowo term not
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good for the dollar, so loss of confidence in the US and that of
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course ties in interest rates. So again the news, if we were to
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listen to the news, we would think that Powell already started cutting rates,
14:24
and it was probably he cut two hundred basis points. But the reality is
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he hasn't cut anything yet, and the news says he's going to cut.
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But what did the cycles say. The cycles say that the Fed fans continue
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to be high until late this year, right, So he was jaw owning
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and it had the desired effect. It drove rates down without the Fed having
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to do anything, right, right, So now we expect that we will
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short the bounce, and now we're covering the shorts. It was expecting a
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bounce coming soon law the wrong bunts, but that does always influence the FED
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funds. So that's a bit separate, right, Okay? And what other
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markets should we be paying attention to now, Charles, I mean you cover
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saying no, we do so your beans, we do, live cattle,
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we do, there's no end to it. We do a coren lumber whatever
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people are interested in, you know, people who are realstake to look at
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the interest rates forecasts and the lumber forecast, because that's very important for the
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rest of the currencies. Will stay in the trading range still for a while.
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Oh maybe important Bitcoin, we went short at forty seven thousand. We
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could see a bounce, but there's no trade below until the end of the
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first quarter of this year. Interesting. Interesting, I was going to ask
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you about bitcoin, but let's go back to lumber for a minute. Now.
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During the pandemic, lumber skyrocketed and now it's been weak pretty much.
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It's come down not quite the free pandemic lows, but getting close to it.
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What are you seeing there? I don't see much going on, and
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especially because I think in a couple of months, you know, we're going
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to a session. I think these things are going to be on the week
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site. But again I don't. I don't really funny, but look at
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the at the at the at the at the website. The charge are there
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because I don't remember anything, because we don't discuss before what we're going to
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talk about, so I'm not prepared on everything. That's okay, that's okay.
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I like you fresh and speaking spontaneously. So many scripted interviews out there,
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we don't do them. So so food prices. Uh, inflation.
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So let's talk about inflation. We talked about a year ago. You said
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inflation's coming down, what you were spot on about and that, but that
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they hadn't defeated the inflationary cycle, that later on inflation would be picking up.
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What are you seeing there now? Out of my brain because I don't
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remember that. Also, I think we have one or two months of raw
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inflation and then it should pick up again. Yeah, well, nothing has
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changed, but inflationary expectations. All of a sudden, the numbers start going
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up, and people like, right, builds it in Yeah. What people
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don't understand this is a two or three percent inflation. It's on top of
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the inflation that we had before. It's not that we have now the inflation
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of three four percent. It continues to build on the inflation we had before.
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So people are still feeling it in their pocketbooks exactly exactly. Even though
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the price of the Thanksgiving the dinner went down about twenty five cents this year,
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it's like not a meaningful number at all. But one thing I find
17:56
interesting is there is a total totally ignoring the fact that inflation runs in cycles.
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Last cycle we have last bit twenty plus years, so to think that
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it's going to be gone in just a year. That doesn't work, does
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it. Well? What scares me because I guess the fact knows my work
18:21
from Goldman, because the funny thing is, it's a funny story. Once
18:23
I was called by the White House and I hang up as this guys stopped
18:27
pulling around five times, hang up, and then Abbic Cohen maybe remember her,
18:32
said no, no, they called me because she was the face of
18:34
golbal Sex. I told go to Charles Nnna. So I called them back,
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I'm sorry, et cetera, et cetera. And the idea over there
18:42
is that nobody does any work, nobody has any clue. I don't think.
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Then I started working for the Bush administration, I had nobody to talk.
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They didn't know what I was talking about. And I think this administration
18:55
is even worse than that. So don't expect anything, anybody to know anything.
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What frightens me is that the Chairman of the FED says, look from
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months to months, you don't have any cycles. Obviously they know my work,
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but they don't look at cycles because otherwise you cannot look from months to
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ones. What they're going to decide. So I think it's it's it's a
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mess and most people have no clue what's going on. Yeah, so this
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is going to go on for years, isn't that right? We expected that
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this is a new cycle opportunity years inflation and higher interest rates like now,
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like now, short the long term rates should come down, but lower terms
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they're got much higher. Right, So you know, like Will Rogers,
19:37
famous comedian, once said, invest in inflation. It's the only thing going
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up. How do we do that here using your system? Well, there
19:47
are ETFs. First of all, that it gives some ideas that ETFs that
19:52
you can play and they go up if inflation goes up. You don't have
19:56
to work with the piles that are against the infla relation that's complicated. The
20:00
other thing I just want to mention the people is that Stuon, we're going
20:03
to have a crash in the housing market. A lot of people, for
20:07
emotional reasoners don't want to sell the house. The same thing as we did
20:11
in two six to seven. You just buy a lot of pots, On
20:15
told Broders Lenard, we all have it in our work. Or you go
20:19
short. You calclculate how much the value of your house. Is you calculate
20:25
and how much we say that the stuff like Lenora will go down, and
20:29
then you can hat yourself. It's not going to cost you so much money.
20:32
And you just don't sit like a sitting duck. Oh my real estate
20:34
goes down again. There are a lot of things that can do to protect
20:37
yourself. So, and they asked me in another television station, how do
20:42
we make money? And I said, listen, I'm Dutch. We don't
20:45
like to lose. We don't like to lose money. You know. Your
20:48
son is said, holla, so you should get updates. So in the
20:52
United States, there's no such thing as we don't like to lose money.
20:53
It's always how we make money. And that's how people suffer. Right,
20:57
Okay, So so when do you think the housing crash is going to happen?
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Is it going to be in twenty twenty four? Yes, later this
21:06
year, because there's a cycle of eighteen and a half years and it's about
21:08
to top again. So most of the institutional people that I work with,
21:17
I don't know how long we know each other, but ten fifty years ago
21:19
I said, buy small apartments and rent them out. Now you remember that,
21:25
And now it tells now you start selling them. So now they're selling
21:27
them. So it's not going to be a good time to own an airbnb,
21:32
is it. Well, that's a different business. Maybe it still is.
21:36
I mean when we had to go with, people were still traveling.
21:38
I mean the I travel a lot, the ticket prices the m as I
21:44
go to the room, but nobody seems to care. So in that perspective,
21:48
people still want to travel. So maybe they're still good. But you
21:51
know, there are ways to head yourself. Whether they will say market coming
21:55
down, just a little anecdote for you eating what you're saying, definitely some
22:02
validity. To a friend of mine, uh, former airline pilot, it's
22:07
lies private charters now and in his company, Uh, they just laid off
22:12
four or five pilots because just not enough business. And if it's weak in
22:18
the upside of the market there in airplane charters, then you've got to wonder
22:23
what's really happening in the rest of the economy, regardless of what the numbers
22:27
are. Well, the problem is that you know you have that on on
22:32
a on CNBC A lot I used to be a lot of CBC. They
22:37
pick up when the asset goes up, and once they pick it up,
22:41
it has been up for a couple of months, and then it's usually close
22:44
to the top. So most people don't see those facts, so the media
22:48
don't pick it up, and once the media pick it up, it's too
22:52
late to get out. Yeah. Yeah, well it's always the case,
22:56
right, They find out about the trend and then let's smart one that he
23:00
is selling into the dumb money as they go into something else. All right,
23:06
So anything else we should do any other markets you find interesting at this
23:11
particular moment in time. No, we did. Most of we did a
23:14
dollar we did, talked about the bond markets, the stock markets, the
23:18
recession coming, the gold to silver. I think we covered except if you're
23:22
in the meat business. You know, we can tell you feed the cattle,
23:25
but most people are not doing that. That's just a big cop you
23:29
know. I have no idea whatepornted is because if you're if you're a big
23:30
company and you you stell Hamburgers and you have to buy meat, you have
23:36
to know when to sign a contract. I got a guy here in Miami
23:40
who sells oranges, and it's a big difference if he knows when the cycle
23:44
is up. When to close the content for the next couple of years.
23:47
So it's it's a lot of big business we have to do for that,
23:49
but most people don't watch that. So I think we covered most of it,
23:52
and maybe in a couple of weeks when we getting closer to a top,
23:56
we'll do it again. All right, Well, let me know when
23:59
I should still up my freezer with steak okay, because right now, like
24:03
where I buy it, I don't know there's a recession coming. They're getting
24:07
the higher prices than ever, you know, twenty five thirty bucks and ounce
24:11
for prime prime, Ribbui Agedribi is even o primate age Ribbui is even the
24:18
higher. And none of the steakhouses know that the price is coming down here,
24:25
so we will see about that. Hey, make sure you go over
24:27
to Charles's site Charlesnenner dot com and sign up for your free trial. Once
24:34
you start, you will get hooked like I've been for years. And if
24:37
you've got a question for Charles or myself, kl at Carrie Lutts dot com
24:42
is the email address, and don't forget you can find a link to Charles
24:48
hit They showed us this interview on Financialsurvival Network dot com. Sign up for
24:53
your free newsletter, Charles, always a pleasure. Thanks for your sage guidance.
24:57
We'll be talking to you again real soon. Okay, we'll talk soon.
25:00
Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's
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