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US Midterm Elections Results · Drive with John Perlman

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So what are the international implications of this? Let's welcome
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  Speaker 1: then to 702 Drive, Kingsley Marko Bella, who is a
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  Speaker 1: regular guest with us on 702, an international expert and
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  Speaker 1: the founder of Recon Risk Analysis.
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  Speaker 2: Mr.
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  Speaker 1: Michael Baylor, welcome and thanks very much for your time.
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  Speaker 1: Lots of excitement around the world at this development, but
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  Speaker 1: it has been pointed out that this quite often does
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  Speaker 1: happen with these midterms. With a perspective of history, Bill Clinton,
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  Speaker 1: for example, lost 54 Congress seats and eight in the Senate.
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  Speaker 1: Barack Obama did the same in 2014, I think, or
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  Speaker 1: in 2010. Are we going to see big changes in
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  Speaker 1: the United States in terms of foreign policy as a
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  Speaker 1: result of this?
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  Speaker 2: Well, we are unlikely to see that, John. Good afternoon. Sorry, John.
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  Speaker 3: But we are unlikely to see drastic changes because the
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  Speaker 3: current administration is still in place. What is likely to
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  Speaker 3: happen is that the current administration would have challenges in
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  Speaker 3: implementing some of the key policies they have. For instance,
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  Speaker 3: with respect to foreign policy, Around issues of wars, the
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  Speaker 3: war with Iran, it's likely to change. And the conflict
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  Speaker 3: with the focus on Cuba is likely to change. So
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  Speaker 3: you're going to see a serious shift, even in terms
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  Speaker 3: of the Ukraine-Russia war.
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  Speaker 2: It's likely to change.
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  Speaker 3: You're likely to find a totally different posture now that
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  Speaker 3: the Democrats in the House and working together with the
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  Speaker 3: Republicans will put a lot.
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  Speaker 2: Of pressure on.
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  Speaker 3: On the White House to make certain adjustments on some
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  Speaker 3: of these issues.
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  Speaker 1: I did mention, Mr. Marcobello, that in the midterms, the
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  Speaker 1: incumbents often do get a dressing down in the votes
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  Speaker 1: for either congressional districts or Senate seats. But has this
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  Speaker 1: gone beyond that? Is what has just happened more than cyclical?
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  Speaker 4: You know, John, you're quite correct.
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  Speaker 3: During the midterm, Americans have been very reluctant to get
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  Speaker 3: the White House in control by the same party on
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  Speaker 3: the other side of Pennsylvania, which is the Capitol Hill,
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  Speaker 3: controlled by the same party. The woman is trying to
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  Speaker 3: balance these issues, mainly to ensure accountability. You recall that
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  Speaker 3: the Americans, the executive, don't sit in the legislatures.
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  Speaker 2: So it has been a procedure there.
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  Speaker 4: But in this instance, there's been serious.
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  Speaker 3: Resentment towards what President Trump has done in terms of
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  Speaker 3: his executive orders and so on. And really bypassing lawmakers.
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  Speaker 3: That's why you've seen this huge resentment, even in areas
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  Speaker 3: like Texas, Iowa. And Iowa is where the current vice
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  Speaker 3: president comes from. It's his seat, actually. It was lost
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  Speaker 3: to the Democrats. In terms of gubernatorial elections, too, they've lost.
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  Speaker 3: They've hemorrhaged so much. Texas is taken by the Democrats.
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  Speaker 3: A lot of areas, the Republicans have lost. And I
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  Speaker 3: think that's a clear message in terms of the demeanor
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  Speaker 3: and the style of Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 2: It's a repudiation of that.
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  Speaker 3: You recall at the beginning of the election, Donald Trump
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  Speaker 3: said he's on the ballot box. But when the numbers
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  Speaker 3: started coming.
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  Speaker 2: Out this morning, he said, no, no, it's not.
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  Speaker 3: On the ballot box. If it was, you would have
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  Speaker 3: seen a total different number.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting thing. I mean, if we take
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  Speaker 1: it back to foreign policy and ask you this, Mr.
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  Speaker 1: Marco Bella, I don't think the word chastened and Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump often find themselves in the same sentence. So he's
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  Speaker 1: unlikely to sort.
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  Speaker 2: Of back off.
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  Speaker 1: But does this make him.
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  Speaker 1: Almost less accountable on issues of foreign policy. I don't
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  Speaker 1: mean just him as an individual, but the presidency and
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  Speaker 1: the White House as a whole, because they are probably
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  Speaker 1: not going to get mandates to do much, for example,
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  Speaker 1: in regard to run from either... the House or the Senate.
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  Speaker 1: Does this mean they may well actually go even more
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  Speaker 1: alone on this than they already have? Because lack of
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  Speaker 1: consultation with other structures of government has already been an issue.
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  Speaker 3: You know, John, I'm looking at between tomorrow and the
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  Speaker 3: end of next week. And the indicator for me will
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  Speaker 3: be the blame game within the Republicans in terms of
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  Speaker 3: this level of hemorrhage.
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  Speaker 2: That the Republicans have had. The numbers, if you look
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  Speaker 2: at the numbers in.
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  Speaker 3: The House, the Democrats are projected to have close to 264,
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  Speaker 3: 265 seats.
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  Speaker 2: Unprecedented.
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  Speaker 3: They are sitting now at 54 seats in the Senate.
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  Speaker 3: They've picked up seven with two seats still outstanding, and
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  Speaker 3: they're likely to take the other two seats. So you're
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  Speaker 3: going to find a blame game within the Republicans. And
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  Speaker 3: one of the issues That is a huge problem. It's
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  Speaker 3: around the cost of oil and the cost of diesel
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  Speaker 3: in the United States. And the level of inflation. So
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  Speaker 3: you're going to find the serious blame on Donald Trump
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  Speaker 3: in terms.
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  Speaker 1: Of the war.
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  Speaker 4: So it will change the tragedy.
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  Speaker 3: Even the remaining members within the Republican, in both houses,
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  Speaker 3: will not want to be seen to pursue the Donald
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  Speaker 3: Trump agenda. So you're going to see the fracture within
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  Speaker 3: the mega group. So that's where we'll start to see.
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  Speaker 3: I think it will become much clearer next week. But
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  Speaker 3: the possibility of impeachment is there. They may impeach Donald
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  Speaker 3: Trump on a lot of issues. I've started to hear
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  Speaker 3: the Democrats talking about corruption, talking about unilateral decision, taking
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  Speaker 3: the country into war. in disregard of the House. So
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  Speaker 3: these issues may come back to haunt Trump. So any Republican,
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  Speaker 3: sensible Republican, remember, there are those who will be facing
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  Speaker 3: the elections again in the next two years. And those
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  Speaker 3: who will be setting themselves up for the presidency, they
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  Speaker 3: are unlikely to pursue the agenda of Donald Trump. So
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  Speaker 3: they will be totally the opposite of what is going on.
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  Speaker 3: So that's what we're likely to see.
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  Speaker 2: Let's take a step back together, Dr.
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  Speaker 1: Makubela, and get your perspective on this. Because it's not
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  Speaker 1: long ago that the American people in huge numbers with
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  Speaker 1: a strong, strong majority voted for the entire package of
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  Speaker 1: President Donald Trump's offerings. It's unlikely, to my mind at least,
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  Speaker 1: that people who may have voted Democrat now have changed
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  Speaker 1: their mind on other issues. Immigration, for example, is one
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  Speaker 1: that comes to mind. Might we, if all these economic
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  Speaker 1: grievances are settled, not see in two years' time or
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  Speaker 1: whenever simply another swing back to what people fundamentally believe,
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  Speaker 1: even if their current discontent made them vote a different way?
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  Speaker 2: Well, you're unlikely to see that very soon, John.
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  Speaker 3: One of the issues that they feel very much betrayed
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  Speaker 3: is this forever wars. Remember when Donald Trump was running,
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  Speaker 3: he was running on the plank of stopping wars. He
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  Speaker 3: was running on the plank of economic prosperity and putting
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  Speaker 3: gas prices down. He's done totally the opposite of that,
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  Speaker 3: and they feel very much betrayed by Donald Trump. If
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  Speaker 3: you see anyone who is anointed by Donald Trump has.
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  Speaker 2: Lost the election.
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  Speaker 4: He handpicked four senators.
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  Speaker 2: One of them is this one in Texas. And they
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  Speaker 2: all lost.
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  Speaker 4: So it tells you how resentful.
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  Speaker 3: They are towards the agenda of Donald Trump. And it
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  Speaker 3: will take time for the economy to start picking up.
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  Speaker 3: And I don't think it will pick up under Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 3: What you are likely to see now is Donald Trump,
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  Speaker 3: who is a lame.
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  Speaker 2: Duck, serious paralysis. Because those who.
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  Speaker 3: Want to run for president, those who want to run
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  Speaker 3: again for the Senate, won't want to be associated with him.
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  Speaker 3: Remember this time around, John, there were about 35 seats.
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  Speaker 2: That were open for the Senate. So there will be
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  Speaker 2: more seats open.
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  Speaker 3: 70-something seats will be open during the presidential elections. And
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  Speaker 3: those people are going to be very careful in terms
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  Speaker 3: of the narrative that is driven by the Republican to
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  Speaker 3: lose more seats.
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  Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts on this. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: I would imagine on a list of 75 first priorities,
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  Speaker 1: South Africa and possibly even Africa, may well be number 85,
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  Speaker 1: just to overmake the point. But is there any chance,
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  Speaker 1: and also procedurally, I mean, could the Senate and the
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  Speaker 1: Congress down the line have something to say about issues
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  Speaker 1: like inclusion in AGOA, possibly That's a boat that's already
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  Speaker 1: left the harbor. But in general, policies towards South Africa
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  Speaker 1: and tariffs and so on, does that remain still exclusively
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  Speaker 1: the president's province? Or might the shifting balance in those
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  Speaker 1: two houses give us a bit of a gap there?
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  Speaker 3: I have seen a report circulating now, John, about one
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  Speaker 3: Democrat who is actually condemning Donald Trump for the exclusion
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  Speaker 3: of South Africa in Agua.
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  Speaker 2: So you're likely to see this. thing gaining momentum. That's one.
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  Speaker 4: But at a broader strategic.
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  Speaker 3: Level, you're unlikely to see changes because even the Democrats
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  Speaker 3: during Biden era, they had a problem around South Africa,
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  Speaker 3: saying South Africa undermines their national security interests and South
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  Speaker 3: Africa undermines There are foreign policy interests.
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  Speaker 2: So those issues will still be there.
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  Speaker 3: So Sarangia will need to recalibrate its foreign policy stance
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  Speaker 3: and engagement with the new elected leaders. You have a
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  Speaker 3: lot of newcomers into both the House and the Senate.
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  Speaker 2: And these are the people who are going to make
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  Speaker 2: a lot of change.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it's a serious bloodbath for the Republicans, John,
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  Speaker 3: to find somebody like Susan Collins. the senator from Maine losing.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, she was an institution herself. For her to
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  Speaker 3: lose her seat and lose her seat in a traditionally
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  Speaker 3: red state, it tells the story.
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  Speaker 4: So Saratoga would need to be very careful.
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  Speaker 3: How it engages with the new establishment, understanding issues that
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  Speaker 3: are systematic and issues that were driven by Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 3: I am yet to hear anyone condemning this idea that
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  Speaker 3: there's genocide in South Africa from the Democrats, including Barack Obama.
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  Speaker 3: He hasn't said anything about this genocide thing, which.
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  Speaker 4: Is a serious myth.
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  Speaker 3: So we will see how the new House and the
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  Speaker 3: new Senate will set up in terms of key foreign
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  Speaker 3: policy issues. Donald Trump will not have a carte blanche
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  Speaker 3: to do whatever he wants to do.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you so much to Dr. Kingsley Marcobello, who's a
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  Speaker 1: risk analyst and a man who's had long history in
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  Speaker 1: the diplomatic core and the diplomatic world. Joining us for
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  Speaker 1: his thoughts on implications for the wider world of the
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  Speaker 1: way Americans voted in their midterm elections.