Latest / Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update / Retail Sales Insights and the Shifting Economic Climate | Episode 180 | 10-11-24

Transcript

Retail Sales Insights and the Shifting Economic Climate | Episode 180 | 10-11-24 · Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

• 0:00
  Megan Horneman: Well, we got a little bit better inflation data today compared to yesterday.
• 0:03
  Megan Horneman: It is Friday, october 11th, and after we got the consumer price index yesterday, which came in hotter than expected, today we got the producer price index and what we saw at the headline level that was actually flat, so that was a little bit better than expected.
• 0:17
  Megan Horneman: But when you look at the core level so this is excluding food and energy that was up two-tenths of a percent.
• 0:24
  Megan Horneman: It did match the expectation, so there weren't any major surprises there.
• 0:28
  Megan Horneman: But when you look on a year-over-year basis and this is what the Fed likes to look at the headline actually rose from 1.7 to 1.8, and the ex-food and energy actually rose from 2.6 to 2.8.
• 0:44
  Megan Horneman: Some of the areas that are still a problem here for inflation are often things that we discuss.
• 0:50
  Megan Horneman: Food prices jumped 1% in September, so they're growing 3.2% now on a year-over-year basis.
• 0:56
  Megan Horneman: The service sector and this is the area that the Fed considers sticky this is up now two-tenths and rising 3.1% on a year-over-year basis.
• 1:07
  Megan Horneman: Most of the weakness in this report was led by energy and that was a similar situation in the Consumer Price Index yesterday.
• 1:14
  Megan Horneman: Now, shortly after we got the Producer Price Index, we also got information on the consumer and this is consumer confidence.
• 1:22
  Megan Horneman: It's the preliminary reading for the month of October.
• 1:24
  Megan Horneman: And consumer confidence.
• 1:24
  Megan Horneman: It's the preliminary reading for the month of October and consumer confidence came in much weaker than expected and the reason behind it was that the consumers continue to talk about high cost of living.
• 1:35
  Megan Horneman: So they're seeing what we're seeing.
• 1:38
  Megan Horneman: The markets aren't really seeing this.
• 1:39
  Megan Horneman: Markets are up pretty big today, but they're seeing exactly these prices that we're seeing the sticky inflation in the service side now, with food prices again, and what we saw in that report was that the one-year inflation expectations actually rose from 2.7 to 2.9.
• 1:58
  Megan Horneman: So inflation expectations are rising.
• 2:00
  Megan Horneman: Inflation is kind of stalled the progress that it's made.
• 2:04
  Megan Horneman: So the Fed's going to be paying close attention to this.
• 2:07
  Megan Horneman: That's all we have for this week, but next week's a big week when it comes to economic data.
• 2:11
  Megan Horneman: We've got a lot of reports.
• 2:13
  Megan Horneman: The main one will be the retail sales report that we will get on the 17th.
• 2:17
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• 2:20
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• 2:22
  Megan Horneman: If you also want to hear any of our older podcasts, you can find all of our podcasts on marketswithmegan.
• 2:27
  Megan Horneman: fm.
• 2:28
  Megan Horneman: Thank you.