Latest / John’s Newsletter / In Brazil, Anatomy of a Steal
Transcript
- 0:00[music]
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: Good morning,
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: everyone,
- 0:17SPEAKER_00: and welcome to Around the world in 20 minutes,
- 0:19SPEAKER_00: where we try to explain the beguiling new planet we find ourselves on.
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: And please do give.
- 0:27SPEAKER_00: I am off in about a week to Washington for three months and will,
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: of course, take the community with me for all our adventures.
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: Should be a really exciting time.
- 0:36SPEAKER_00: But we need you.
- 0:37SPEAKER_00: Tens of thousands of you are going through the site regularly.
- 0:40SPEAKER_00: We're incredibly honored by that.
- 0:41SPEAKER_00: You guys know I don't say these words lightly.
- 0:42SPEAKER_00: I am not a conspiracist, and indeed I worry about, as Richard Hofstadter put it,
- 0:56SPEAKER_00: The paranoid style of the populist right.
- 0:59SPEAKER_00: There is no doubt we tend toward conspiracy theories.
- 1:03SPEAKER_00: I'm always poo-pooing them.
- 1:05SPEAKER_00: But here we have a case that we do not need Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson to solve.
- 1:10SPEAKER_00: It's both selfishness.
- 1:11SPEAKER_00: Cynical and straightforward,
- 1:13SPEAKER_00: despite the fact that Ursula von der Leyen already has said it's wonderful.
- 1:17SPEAKER_00: Lula won another victory for the folks at Davos,
- 1:20SPEAKER_00: the World Economic Forum,
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: the Zannie Mitten-Bettos, the egregious midwit editor who's ruined the economy.
- 1:26SPEAKER_00: We had Simon Cooper go after me.
- 1:41SPEAKER_00: From the FT who just discovered after being in a coma for 20 years
- 1:45SPEAKER_00: that France is ungovernable,
- 1:47SPEAKER_00: not the fault of the elite,
- 1:48SPEAKER_00: despite no growth over 20 years,
- 1:50SPEAKER_00: 80 quarters, unfettered, unassimilated immigration and insane energy prices.
- 1:56SPEAKER_00: As his friends at the FT,
- 1:58SPEAKER_00: the handmaiden of the establishment,
- 1:59SPEAKER_00: rather than holding truth to power, they're a propaganda arm of the establishment.
- 2:05SPEAKER_00: And rather than dealing with things as they are,
- 2:07SPEAKER_00: working for an establishment that has to explain why they worshipped Greta Thurne.
- 2:11SPEAKER_00: All this over the weekend, these are tiny dots telling you that they're not going to, quote,
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: The establishment with their backs up against the wall are not going to go gentle
- 2:34SPEAKER_00: into that good night.
- 2:35SPEAKER_00: They're going to do everything they can to retain their position in power.
- 2:39SPEAKER_00: The guy who cuts in front of me He thinks he's owed that room despite the fact
- 2:47SPEAKER_00: that he caused as an ambassador,
- 2:49SPEAKER_00: partly the Libyan debacle that led to the Al-Qaeda and ISIS being in Libya,
- 2:55SPEAKER_00: and he was behind that in his Hillary Clinton-like Wilsonian nation-building way,
- 2:59SPEAKER_00: but he still deserves a better room than the rest of us.
- 3:01SPEAKER_00: Do not underestimate how self-regarding these people are.
- 3:05SPEAKER_00: Instead,
- 3:06SPEAKER_00: just have a look at Zannie Mitten-Bettos ruining The Economist
- 3:09SPEAKER_00: and her reputation this weekend as she works for, of course.
- 3:12SPEAKER_00: Who else?
- 3:13SPEAKER_00: Chairs a meeting, interviewing.
- 3:15SPEAKER_00: Who else?
- 3:16SPEAKER_00: Jamie Dimon and her at the World Economic Forum.
- 3:18SPEAKER_00: At least Jamie Dimon said some interesting things.
- 3:21SPEAKER_00: She is merely a handmaiden for a failing elite, and they will do anything.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: Anything, including cheat and steal to keep their place.
- 3:30SPEAKER_00: They can't steal an election like the French one that's overwhelmingly against them.
- 3:34SPEAKER_00: But I don't want to lose every vote as a populist that's 51-49 or 52-48 for the rest.
- 3:41SPEAKER_00: And I now, and I'm speaking after talking to our lawyers, will speak clearly.
- 3:46SPEAKER_00: I think the election in Brazil was stolen.
- 3:50SPEAKER_00: I say this with no malice of any kind,
- 3:53SPEAKER_00: and that is my assertion that I will now back up with facts.
- 3:57SPEAKER_00: You can dispute my facts, but you cannot dispute my good faith in making this conclusion there.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: I've used the First Amendment to cover myself and actually tell you the truth.
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: One more thing about Jefferson and a personal note.
- 4:12SPEAKER_00: I'm very excited to be going back to Washington and taking the gang with me.
- 4:16SPEAKER_00: You all are coming along for our adventures as realists get ready after the midterms for 2028.
- 4:22SPEAKER_00: An exciting time to be there on board.
- 4:24SPEAKER_00: Thank God some people still actually want to be right.
- 4:26SPEAKER_00: And we are benefiting from that.
- 4:28SPEAKER_00: But
- 4:40SPEAKER_00: Another reason I'm excited to go home is a personal one.
- 4:43SPEAKER_00: My partner in crime in the Dead Realist Society and old friend,
- 4:47SPEAKER_00: John Goodnight, is getting married.
- 4:48SPEAKER_00: And to the right person,
- 4:50SPEAKER_00: he and Rochelle will get married at my favorite place in Washington,
- 4:54SPEAKER_00: the Jefferson Memorial.
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: And around that memorial,
- 4:57SPEAKER_00: I remember when I was eight going there with my mom and dad from Ohio,
- 5:00SPEAKER_00: from Rocky River, and going there and reading what was around the dome.
- 5:08SPEAKER_00: Which, of course, mirrors the dome at Monticello, Italianate in style.
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: And there's a view,
- 5:14SPEAKER_00: by the way,
- 5:14SPEAKER_00: in the Capitol,
- 5:15SPEAKER_00: those of you who are not D.C. people,
- 5:17SPEAKER_00: from the White House to Jefferson's memorial,
- 5:19SPEAKER_00: and it's said that Mr. Jefferson is keeping an eye on the president.
- 5:23SPEAKER_00: And it says around the side,
- 5:27SPEAKER_00: our champion of our civil liberties,
- 5:29SPEAKER_00: the inspirer of the Bill of Rights,
- 5:32SPEAKER_00: it says,
- 5:32SPEAKER_00: I have sworn upon the altar of God,
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: eternal hostility against every Now,
- 5:38SPEAKER_00: I didn't know exactly what that meant when I was eight.
- 5:52SPEAKER_00: This is an outrageous attempt by a failing center-left establishment to prop
- 6:10SPEAKER_00: What shouldn't be propped up to tolerate the intolerable.
- 6:13SPEAKER_00: Lula in this third term has been a Joe Biden tribute band.
- 6:17SPEAKER_00: He's no longer the vigorous leftist populist who came up with Bolsa Familia, the policy program.
- 6:24SPEAKER_00: The mineral riches Brazil had made by trading with China and set up
- 6:28SPEAKER_00: an effective safety net for the poor,
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: which has made Lula revered and a very effective leftist populist.
- 6:34SPEAKER_00: I don't agree with him, but again, I'm a historian.
- 6:36SPEAKER_00: I follow the ball,
- 6:38SPEAKER_00: not the man,
- 6:39SPEAKER_00: unlike Zannie Minton Beddoes and Simon Cooper and the rest of the sorry crew.
- 6:45SPEAKER_00: I voted for a Democrat for president.
- 6:46SPEAKER_00: Let's ask anyone there if they've ever voted for anyone on the right.
- 6:51SPEAKER_00: I doubt it.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: But Lula is no longer this leftist giant.
- 6:56SPEAKER_00: Instead, he's doing a Joe Biden impersonation.
- 6:58SPEAKER_00: Corruption swirls around him.
- 7:01SPEAKER_00: Supreme Court justices he's put in place.
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: DeMarais,
- 7:04SPEAKER_00: the worst of the bunch,
- 7:06SPEAKER_00: who certainly doesn't understand Jefferson or a Bill You see his son's been involved
- 7:12SPEAKER_00: in some corruption and generally he's been tainted by association,
- 7:16SPEAKER_00: though he himself has not been implicated in any way,
- 7:19SPEAKER_00: but he's just not done very much.
- 7:20SPEAKER_00: The guy's 80 years old.
- 7:22SPEAKER_00: I think he's had brain surgery twice.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: You know, it shows.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: I mean, at 80,
- 7:27SPEAKER_00: you should be playing with your grandchildren,
- 7:30SPEAKER_00: not trying to run a serious country like Brazil.
- 7:32SPEAKER_00: So this seemed a possibility of a populist rightist pickup in Flavio Bolsonaro,
- 7:37SPEAKER_00: the son of Jair Bolsonaro.
- 7:39SPEAKER_00: And in the first draft,
- 7:40SPEAKER_00: There was a shock result that we talked about where Bolsonaro,
- 7:44SPEAKER_00: who was expected to be slightly behind,
- 7:46SPEAKER_00: but neither were going to get to the magical 50.
- 7:48SPEAKER_00: Brazilian elections are a bit like the French ones.
- 7:51SPEAKER_00: If you don't get to 50 in the first round, there is a second round.
- 7:54SPEAKER_00: In this case, though,
- 7:55SPEAKER_00: So the thinking was that Bolsonaro would lose narrowly to Lula,
- 8:01SPEAKER_00: but that most of the rest of the small parties are on the right and that it would be
- 8:04SPEAKER_00: a dogfight, a 50-50 kind of dogfight in the second round.
- 8:08SPEAKER_00: Well, that's not what happened.
- 8:10SPEAKER_00: First round, Bolsonaro actually won 47% to 45%.
- 8:15SPEAKER_00: And the rest of the votes, these smaller parties, were all on the populist right.
- 8:20SPEAKER_00: So they're either going to vote for Bolsonaro or they're not going to vote at all.
- 8:24SPEAKER_00: In either case, it was overwhelmingly likely that Bolsonaro would be president, as I said.
- 8:31SPEAKER_00: And yet, he's not today.
- 8:33SPEAKER_00: In fact, the economist, who else?
- 8:37SPEAKER_00: Ursula von der Leyen...
- 8:40SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to think the usual suspects have all congratulated Lula on an amazing victory.
- 8:46SPEAKER_00: 52-48.
- 8:47SPEAKER_00: I think amazing is an interesting word.
- 8:50SPEAKER_00: Again, I'm not in favor.
- 8:52SPEAKER_00: I play the ball and not the man.
- 8:53SPEAKER_00: I'm not in favor of conspiracies.
- 8:54SPEAKER_00: I'm constantly talking them down in the populist right.
- 8:58SPEAKER_00: But here is a conspiracy.
- 9:00SPEAKER_00: And again,
- 9:01SPEAKER_00: to keep our lawyers happy who were profusely sweating this morning,
- 9:06SPEAKER_00: I think this election was stolen by Lula and his supporters.
- 9:11SPEAKER_00: I say that without malice or prejudice,
- 9:13SPEAKER_00: and I am now going to give you the argument as to why I think that.
- 9:17SPEAKER_00: But what this proves,
- 9:18SPEAKER_00: we'll start at the end,
- 9:20SPEAKER_00: is that this is an establishment that is not going to,
- 9:23SPEAKER_00: to quote Dylan Thomas, go gentle into that good night.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: They're going to lie, cheat, and steal where they can.
- 9:29SPEAKER_00: We, to finish the Dylan Thomas quote, must rage, rage against the dying of the light.
- 9:35SPEAKER_00: That's what we must do as Jeffersonians.
- 9:38SPEAKER_00: They're counting on our apathy and the EU thing, just kind of getting them over the line.
- 9:43SPEAKER_00: But here's the argument I would make as to why this election was stolen.
- 9:47SPEAKER_00: Four simple points.
- 9:50SPEAKER_00: Judicial rulings on federal elections are made in Brazil by
- 9:54SPEAKER_00: the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, TSE, using the Portuguese acronym.
- 9:59SPEAKER_00: So, like many countries,
- 10:01SPEAKER_00: there is a judicial body that adjudicates any election irregularities
- 10:07SPEAKER_00: or claims called the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
- 10:11SPEAKER_00: Lula cited transportation problems as a reason to get the Supreme Electoral Tribunal
- 10:18SPEAKER_00: to extend voting hours.
- 10:20SPEAKER_00: Now,
- 10:21SPEAKER_00: the transport problems revolve around the fact that on days of national elections
- 10:25SPEAKER_00: in Brazil,
- 10:26SPEAKER_00: there is supposed to be free transport to get people to and from the election polls.
- 10:32SPEAKER_00: And this is to help poor people be able to vote.
- 10:34SPEAKER_00: They don't have to pay money to go to the polls.
- 10:37SPEAKER_00: Now, who controls transport in Brazil, would you guess?
- 10:41SPEAKER_00: Lula, he's the president.
- 10:42SPEAKER_00: His minions run Brazil.
- 10:45SPEAKER_00: But they're transport problems.
- 10:47SPEAKER_00: And so because of this, Lula goes to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal as he is supposed to.
- 10:53SPEAKER_00: But they don't rule quickly.
- 10:55SPEAKER_00: They're not sure what to do, and time is running out.
- 10:58SPEAKER_00: So Lula's government,
- 11:00SPEAKER_00: instead of waiting for the ruling of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal,
- 11:04SPEAKER_00: as constitutionally they're supposed to,
- 11:07SPEAKER_00: instead he skips that step and goes to a Supreme Court Justice, Cristiano Zanin.
- 11:13SPEAKER_00: You can go to any justice after you've been through that process.
- 11:16SPEAKER_00: You can then appeal to the Supreme Court.
- 11:19SPEAKER_00: But he skipped the step of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal ruling,
- 11:24SPEAKER_00: And instead,
- 11:27SPEAKER_00: he went to a Supreme Court justice who ordered the polls to remain open
- 11:32SPEAKER_00: for two more hours without any ruling of any kind by the lower court,
- 11:36SPEAKER_00: the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, obviously.
- 11:38SPEAKER_00: Obviously, this is unconstitutional.
- 11:42SPEAKER_00: More interestingly, Cristiano Zanin is not some innocent bystander.
- 11:47SPEAKER_00: You literally can't make this up.
- 11:49SPEAKER_00: And this is why we don't need Sherlock Holmes to figure out this mystery.
- 11:53SPEAKER_00: Zanin.
- 11:53SPEAKER_00: Shannon used to be, before he was a Supreme Court justice, a well-known defense lawyer.
- 11:59SPEAKER_00: He was Lula's defense lawyer during Lula's corruption cases,
- 12:03SPEAKER_00: which he initially lost and was jailed, and then were overturned on a technicality.
- 12:08SPEAKER_00: So Lula's personal lawyer,
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: he doesn't get the ruling he likes,
- 12:11SPEAKER_00: he gets no ruling,
- 12:12SPEAKER_00: he skips that step,
- 12:13SPEAKER_00: goes to the Supreme Court,
- 12:15SPEAKER_00: goes to his former personal lawyer,
- 12:17SPEAKER_00: who does exactly what Lula wants, and leaves there to be two more hours for voting.
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: That's step one on the outrageous notion.
- 12:27SPEAKER_00: Now, second, you need to know how the polling actually works in Brazil.
- 12:31SPEAKER_00: And it works like this, that there's software involved.
- 12:35SPEAKER_00: And when the poll comes to an end,
- 12:36SPEAKER_00: when the time is out,
- 12:38SPEAKER_00: the election officials turn off the polling mechanism and it cannot be turned
- 12:43SPEAKER_00: on again.
- 12:44SPEAKER_00: And that's an effort to safeguard the voting.
- 12:46SPEAKER_00: That all makes perfect sense.
- 12:49SPEAKER_00: And two minutes after the voting was to be done,
- 12:52SPEAKER_00: the judge ordered that any precinct still operating,
- 12:57SPEAKER_00: two minutes after the election is done,
- 12:59SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 13:00SPEAKER_00: while people are closing up shop,
- 13:02SPEAKER_00: if their polls are still there and remain open, they must leave them open.
- 13:07SPEAKER_00: Now, to give CNN credit,
- 13:10SPEAKER_00: they reported 80% of the polls were closed at two minutes after the hour,
- 13:17SPEAKER_00: because usually,
- 13:18SPEAKER_00: and I've actually been an election observer in the Balkans in my youth,
- 13:22SPEAKER_00: I was a Interesting story.
- 13:24SPEAKER_00: It's funny because I got out of it in one piece.
- 13:25SPEAKER_00: But
- 13:42SPEAKER_00: Most of the polls trickle out, and so you close directly on time because nobody's there.
- 13:46SPEAKER_00: They've all voted already.
- 13:48SPEAKER_00: And so 80% of CNN reported in Brazilian polls, they're shut at two minutes after the hour.
- 13:55SPEAKER_00: But Lula's precinct captains were aware.
- 14:00SPEAKER_00: So they waited for that request to be granted.
- 14:03SPEAKER_00: So of the 20% of polls still operating,
- 14:08SPEAKER_00: Lula's people were dragging their feet in a Brazilian way just a little bit
- 14:13SPEAKER_00: so they could extend the time.
- 14:15SPEAKER_00: All this was unbeknownst to Bolsonaro's people.
- 14:18SPEAKER_00: So with these extra two hours, you see the results begin to change.
- 14:24SPEAKER_00: His former lawyer on the Supreme Court, no,
- 14:26SPEAKER_00: you can't make this stuff up,
- 14:27SPEAKER_00: though it doesn't stop the Guardian from declaring,
- 14:30SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's just despicable, that woman.
- 14:38SPEAKER_00: Despicable.
- 14:39SPEAKER_00: It's Orwell now.
- 14:40SPEAKER_00: They're just lying.
- 14:42SPEAKER_00: They'll do and say anything to stay in power, and we must be ready for that.
- 14:47SPEAKER_00: So he puts his lawyer in the court.
- 14:48SPEAKER_00: He does this ruling.
- 14:49SPEAKER_00: Things are extended in the 20% of polls still open for two hours.
- 14:53SPEAKER_00: You skip the lower court ruling that should decide it and then appeal.
- 14:57SPEAKER_00: You skip the rule of law.
- 14:58SPEAKER_00: You go to your buddy who was your lawyer.
- 15:01SPEAKER_00: Your precinct captains are ready and you wait for this to go on.
- 15:05SPEAKER_00: This is rigging an election.
- 15:08SPEAKER_00: They wait until pro-Flavio precincts are closed and cannot be reopened because of this.
- 15:14SPEAKER_00: And then...
- 15:15SPEAKER_00: They only deal with the pole still open, which are pro-Lula, and you get the magical result.
- 15:22SPEAKER_00: This is the anatomy of a steal.
- 15:25SPEAKER_00: But they're not Professor Moriarty.
- 15:27SPEAKER_00: We're not dealing, again, we're using Sherlock Holmes today.
- 15:30SPEAKER_00: We're not dealing with a Napoleon of crime out there.
- 15:33SPEAKER_00: I've read every story of Sherlock Holmes.
- 15:36SPEAKER_00: They are wonderful.
- 15:37SPEAKER_00: At some point, we should do them.
- 15:39SPEAKER_00: My uncle and I, who live far away, gave wonderful Christmas presents and won Christmas as a kid.
- 15:43SPEAKER_00: I got the old drawings from the Strand newspaper of all the Sherlock Holmes stories.
- 15:48SPEAKER_00: I've read them all through, I think three times at least.
- 15:51SPEAKER_00: Precisely because he uses logic and a good bit of brandy with Watson.
- 15:57SPEAKER_00: Hanging out in 221B Baker Street where I've taken Sarah and the kids,
- 16:01SPEAKER_00: my favorite cab driver in the world.
- 16:03SPEAKER_00: Dan, my great friend in London, my personal London cabbie and often a fan of our show.
- 16:08SPEAKER_00: And Dan, if you're listening, I miss our hanging out.
- 16:12SPEAKER_00: I've known Danny's been a good friend for 20 years.
- 16:15SPEAKER_00: We went to see 221B Baker Street,
- 16:17SPEAKER_00: the idea of using logic to get around idiocy, midwittery and downright evil.
- 16:24SPEAKER_00: And that's what this is, because this isn't amusing.
- 16:26SPEAKER_00: This is avoidance.
- 16:28SPEAKER_00: This is an establishment who will lie and cheat and steal to stay in power at almost any cost.
- 16:33SPEAKER_00: We who believe in the Jeffersonian process must fight them, must not be apathetic.
- 16:39SPEAKER_00: And I want to single out a group that I don't normally.
- 16:42SPEAKER_00: The New
- 16:47SPEAKER_00: York Times, of all people, have said there are election irregularities here.
- 16:51SPEAKER_00: There might need to be an annulment of the vote and a new vote
- 16:55SPEAKER_00: because these irregularities aren't.
- 16:58SPEAKER_00: Now, they didn't go into the detail I just did with you, but they at least mentioned it.
- 17:04SPEAKER_00: And full marks to them for mentioning it,
- 17:06SPEAKER_00: for caring about the Jeffersonian process more than cheerleading
- 17:10SPEAKER_00: for their establishment buddy, the faded, jaded Lula.
- 17:15SPEAKER_00: That's what we need both sides to do.
- 17:17SPEAKER_00: People of goodwill to acknowledge in Aristotle's term, the basis to logic.
- 17:23SPEAKER_00: What is, is I don't believe in postmodernism.
- 17:26SPEAKER_00: The bucket that Mandela just kicked over next to me is a bucket.
- 17:30SPEAKER_00: It's not a construct of my thinking.
- 17:32SPEAKER_00: It's real.
- 17:34SPEAKER_00: The minute we moved away from that to French philosophical thinkers,
- 17:37SPEAKER_00: you get the France of today, where money isn't real.
- 17:41SPEAKER_00: Consequences aren't real, but you know what they are.
- 17:44SPEAKER_00: And what Lula just did must have consequences.
- 17:48SPEAKER_00: Let me finish the Dylan Thomas quote.
- 17:51SPEAKER_00: They may not go gentle into that good night,
- 17:54SPEAKER_00: but we must rage rage against the dying of the light.
- 17:59SPEAKER_00: We must in a Jeffersonian way not accept this nonsense as
- 18:04SPEAKER_00: the desperate elite does anything it can.
- 18:06SPEAKER_00: Crawling with its claw marks on the wall as it's led out of the room and thrown on
- 18:13SPEAKER_00: the ash heap of history, which it so richly deserves.
- 18:17SPEAKER_00: I'll be back on this one, maybe today, maybe soon.
- 18:20SPEAKER_00: But keep faith with us by giving as we keep faith with you.
- 18:25SPEAKER_00: From Mandela and myself, have a great day.