Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 39: Israel's 4th Turning, Vance vs Walz, and Europe Shifts Rightward

Transcript

Episode 39: Israel's 4th Turning, Vance vs Walz, and Europe Shifts Rightward · Trend Watch

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: Ready to take a deeper look at where history, politics, and economics all intersect?
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Well, then you've come to the right place.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: Each week,
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: here's where we pull back the headlines and focus on the big trends,
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: the stuff that actually shapes our future.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Through the noise, we focus on the signal.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is TrendWatch.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: Today is October 2nd, 2024, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: So, Christian, as always, how was your week?
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Neil,
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: over the weekend,
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: I witnessed a group of Salvadorian chefs on Pennsylvania Ave break the Guinness
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: World Record for making the world's largest pupusa.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well, okay.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: So you're going to tell us what a papusa is?
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: it is the national dish of El Salvador,
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: and it's like a cornmeal flatbread that is stuffed with cheese and grilled,
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: and it's pretty good.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: They put like a spicy coleslaw kind of salsa on it, and yeah, it was fun.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: It turned out to be 20 feet in diameter.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that sounds like it could have fed a lot of people.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: I imagine a lot of people were there.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, about 5,000 people were there.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: At the event, they were handing out Salvadorian flags.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone was flying them.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: National pride.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: A very kind of diverse kind of D.C.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: activity, you know, sort of kind of trendy, but kind of new, novel.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: So what is it with El Salvador and D.C. ?
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: For whatever reason, the D.C.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: area has the largest population of Salvadorians in the country.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know exactly why that is, but... Well, that's interesting.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe D.C.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: is just infatuated by their authoritarian president, Nayib Bukele.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: They ought to use some of that in D.C.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: Anyone with a tattoo off to prison, you know, frog walk you.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: So...
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: look,
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: as always,
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: I want to remind everyone,
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: if you like this podcast,
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: please go ahead and share it with your friends and family.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: Repost on social media.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: From now on, only a few episodes and a few articles remain free.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: And Christian,
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: maybe we should take a moment to clarify to listeners that this podcast isn't all
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: we do on Substack.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: We also put out lots of written content under the name of Demography Unplugged.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's right, Neil.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: I always encourage our listeners to go and check out our other work.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: We did a recent By the Numbers where we looked at demographic data and recent news
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: from around the world,
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: looking at the total fertility rate of Canada and how that is just dropping quickly,
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: how U.S.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: mortality has been revised upwards.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: We also recently did a video, Recession Indicators, looking at
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: you know, how close we are to a recession.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, we encourage people to go look at those, uh, that content.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: We did that.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: among the things on the,
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: all about the,
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: about the numbers,
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: as I recall,
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: when we did about the,
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: the numbers and the,
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: the demographic trends,
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_01: the part of the explanation of the rising death rate was COVID,
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: which I believe was the primary cause of death for about 50,000 last year, right?
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's a particularly severe flu year.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: I think we have only one or two years like that for flu over the last 20 years.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: And this is something I think that's,
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: we all think that COVID is behind us,
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: but it's still out there.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: I believe it's still the 10th largest killer of Americans.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: So there you are.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: One more thing to worry about.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: Well, this is great.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get into today's podcast.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: We have a lot to talk about, a lot happening both at home and around the world.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: Let's review these and then we'll come back to you, Christian, for market news.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: In domestic stories, CBS hosted the 2024 vice presidential candidates debate starring J.D.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: Vance and Tim Walz in what is likely the last debate among any of the candidates.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: And as of Tuesday,
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: the International Longshoremen's Union went on strike,
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: stopping the loading or unloading of commercial shipments along the eastern
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: seaboard in the Gulf of Mexico.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: If you haven't bought your fruit, you might do it really quickly.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: Anything that's perishable can't be stored.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: I do know that a lot of these stores have done a little pre-inventorying of stuff
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: in expectation of this date.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Washington, D.C.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: last week and met with President Joe Biden and candidate Donald Trump to discuss
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: American aid in Ukraine's war against invading Russian forces.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: I realize that's a little bit international, but we've got a lot of international stories as well.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, certainly, obviously.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: Leading all of the stories,
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: Israel has commenced a ground invasion of southern Lebanon after a blistering
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: campaign of electronic sabotage and airstrikes that took out a large share of
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: Hezbollah's top leadership,
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: including Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: And I should say, fear of a wider war, I think, is right out there.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk about that later.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: In Japan,
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: the Liberal Democratic Party has elected a new prime minister,
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: Shigeru Ishiba,
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: who may insist on greater independence for Japan and the Western alliance.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: French President Emmanuel Macron appoints a center-right cabinet under the new
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: prime minister Michel Bernier,
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: triggering threats and protests from the popular front left.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: In Germany,
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: State elections in Brandenburg and Saxony resulted in further gains for right-wing
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: AFD and losses for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left coalition,
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: which could result in the coalition's collapse before next year's scheduled election.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: And finally,
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: In Austria,
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: the New Right Freedom Party finished first over the weekend in national
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: parliamentary elections,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: a result that points to no obvious ruling coalition or chancellor.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: So back to you, Christian.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: Let's take it from the top, as we usually do with market news.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: All right, Neil, the S&P 500 closed up today 0.01%, so barely any movement there.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: And over the last five market days is down 0.22%.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: As for the global Dow, that closed down today 0.17%.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last five days is up 0.37%.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: As for the VIX, that closed at 18.9, elevated from the last week.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: And as for the 10-year treasury, that is at 3.784%, down 0.4 basis points over the last five days.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, it's interesting.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: The S&P has been trending up, but the volatility remains.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the VIX is still higher than you might have otherwise guessed.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we have these dips and valleys and obviously a very turbulent world.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: So what about indicators?
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: Anything?
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well...
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: For the U.S., Neil, we have PCE index for August, which came in at 2.2% year over year.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: We also had Jolt's job openings for August, which rose by 329,000 to 8.04 million.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: This was above market expectations.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: And we also just got the ISM manufacturing PMI, which was flat in September at 47.2%.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: Still waiting on non-manufacturing.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: Got it.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: Anything else around the world?
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we had some PMIs from China in the Eurozone.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: If we look at China, we have the Caixin PMIs.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: Manufacturing rose from 49.3 in August to 50.4 in September.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: As for services, that fell from 51.6 to 50.3, but still positive growth.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: If we look at the Eurozone, their manufacturing PFI for September fell to 45.0.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: That is the lowest reading this year.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's pretty low for an entire Eurozone.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe not so low for one country, but that's terrible, frankly.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: You know, so is this is this attributed to anything?
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: Is this is this the ECB European Central Bank policy?
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: Are they too tight?
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: Is this is this China imports that are crowding out domestic manufacturers?
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: What's going on?
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if I can point to a specific thing,
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: but I think all most people say all of those things are definitely contributing.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Right, right.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, why don't we just start in on domestic stories?
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: All right, Neil.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: On Tuesday, CBS hosted the 2024 vice presidential debate.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: Many analysts praised the debate for being civil and, you know, having some substance to it.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: Both candidates mostly attacked the top of the tickets.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: Many viewers said Vance was probably got the better edge.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: He was more well-spoken.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: And while
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: Wall struggled a little in the beginning.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: He still, you know, came off as your folksy Midwestern neighbor.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Neil, did you have any takeaways from this debate?
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: Do you think it actually meant anything or does this not change the ultimate outcome?
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's it's hard to imagine a vice presidential debate changing the ultimate outcome.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: I think most viewers who watched it and I imagine the I believe the numbers were
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: were pretty small compared to those who watched the the the Harris Trump debate.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: I think their reaction is probably I mean, why aren't these two people on the top of the ticket?
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: you know i mean it just honestly um the the harris trump debate was terrible um
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: right uh right you know one candidate was um uh doing everything they could to
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: defend his record and the other one was doing everything could to attack and not
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_01: talk about what you know she wanted to do
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_01: It was truly depressing.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: This was less depressing.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: And I thought a lot of people might have felt good about the mannerliness of both candidates.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: I thought it felt good.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_01: I do believe you're right.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: I think that J.D.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: Vance performed very well.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: Trump's reaction was...
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_01: Walt,
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_01: this is his quote from one of his tweets,
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: embarrassed himself in the Democratic Party last night,
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_01: but was made to look even worse by J.D.'
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: 's brilliant performance.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, so Trump is obviously very happy.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_01: The Wall Street Journal editorial was Vance makes a better case for Trump than Trump.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's kind of interesting.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: But I do,
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_01: and I think he made the points that Trump should have made,
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: about what happened during the Trump presidency.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_01: You know, nothing really happened abroad.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: We had no foreign policy emergencies.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: Inflation was pretty good.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_01: Real wage growth was pretty good.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: You know, all the things you'd think that anyone would make, right?
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_01: You have...
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: You have 16 years of presidencies, 12 of them Democrats, and the one four years was Trump.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: Trump probably looks pretty good by comparison just on those objective cases.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm just saying,
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: look,
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: anyone looking at that would say,
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: that's kind of how you make your argument,
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: The Democrats really...
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: At a time when most people do not think the United States is on track for a better future,
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: and in fact,
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: I would say most Americans are profoundly pessimistic about where this nation is going,
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: that it puts a real burden on Democrats,
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Democrats should be.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: Very challenged right now.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_01: And I think one thing that Trump has done is really not brought home that case at all.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_01: He's constantly defending, I don't know, his election in 2020 or something.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's doing everything but coming home and making that case.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_01: I thought Vance was pretty good at making the case.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think his weakest points were where he had to defend Trump, right?
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, honestly, right?
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_01: And you might even say the weakest part of Walz was where he sort of had to admit
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: that he had to defend sort of Biden-Harris,
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_01: It might be good, Christian, to look a little bit at where the polls stand.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_01: How do you see it?
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we occasionally like to look at, I don't know, how the candidates are doing.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: if we look at real clear politics,
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: their average,
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: they have Harris up by two percentage points in the national vote.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: Five thirty eight is a little more generous.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: They have her up by two point seven.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at actual battlegrounds, it's interesting.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: Harris is up in Michigan, Wisconsin and actually Nevada.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: That one surprised me.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: But Trump is doing better in Arizona and Georgia.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: And North Carolina as well.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, these were these were dangers for Trump.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: And and, you know, it comes down.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_01: It looks like it may come down to Pennsylvania.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: A bunch of questions that occur to me.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: One is, is that given Trump's performance in the national vote, he's only behind by two.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: And yet he's he's sort of neck and neck, right, struggling in these battleground states.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's given rise to a lot of stories.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: Some by Nate Silver.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: some by,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: the staff on FiveThirtyEight about whether or not the Electoral College threshold
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: may be moving against Trump.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's kind of too hard to tell.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of these state polls are a little bit erratic and.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's hard to tell.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: I've made the argument, as you know, Christian, that it's really gone the other way.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_01: I think that objectively, the substitution of Harris rather than Biden from 2020 to 2024,
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_01: should have given Harris a greater edge in deep blue states and made it a little
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: bit more difficult for her in the battle zone states.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: So I must admit, I'm a little puzzled by this.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: I would have thought right now that Harris would be doing better in the national
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: vote given how she's doing in these battleground states.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: I think my other conclusion by looking at all this is to say that...
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: You remember about three weeks ago,
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: I wrote a long piece about this and I said that Harris needed a second stage,
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: And she's getting a second stage, but the question is whether it's enough, right?
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: I do expect,
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: or at least I wouldn't be surprised if we have that late October surge,
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: that Trump had in 2016 and 2020.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: And in fact, Nate Silver anticipates that.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: So even though he admits that Harris right now is winning most of the battleground
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: states and would probably win if people vote according to the polls right now,
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: he still has the race virtually a tie in odds.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: I believe that silver now has it, you know, Harris is 57% favorite and Trump is 43%.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, in odds terms, that's just pretty much close to a draw, right?
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: if you had a coin that came up heads 57% of the time and tails 43%,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: how many times did you have to flip it before you knew it was biased?
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, maybe 30 or 40, 50 times.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_01: And you look at betting markets, the same thing.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: Head to head.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, just extraordinary.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_01: The real clear average of betting markets now,
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of these are in London,
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_01: shows Harris at 49.3 percent to Trump at 49.4 percent.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: That's just incredible, right?
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: Predict it,
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: which usually leans a little bit more toward Democrats than the betting markets
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: average is Harris at 54% to Trump at 48%.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: But here's the thing.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: People are discounting a little bit.
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: They're assuming Trump's going to have a little bit of rebound, you know, between now and election.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: So, my gosh, this remains a very, very close race as as we predicted.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, come on.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_01: So so there you are.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: What's what else do we have?
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: All right, Neil.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: This week,
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: the International Longshoremen's Union went on strike against ports on the East and
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: Gulf Coasts.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_00: The union represents almost 50,000 dock workers.