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Cattle: Quick Market Update · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Cattle Market Talk Podcast with Professional Ag Marketing.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: Come here to get your fresh updates on what's happening week to week within the cattle market.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: Today is July 18th.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Nick with us here today.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going, Nick?
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: Good, how about you, Mike?
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: Not too bad.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go over this cattle market today.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: What did the week's trade look like overall for the futures here, Nick?
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: We had August live cattle try to rally towards the front half of the week.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: Monday was a step back, and then Tuesday made up all for it, and then kind of settled out and plateaued just under 225 the rest of the week.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: But hey, that's new record prices, isn't it?
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, record prices pretty much in all the months other than August, I think.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: But we definitely saw some consolidation across the board, which kind of lends to the fact that this thing is kind of running out of steam.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I think you're like you're gonna allude to Mike.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we cut back on kills this week.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uh a lot of packers took Friday off here.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Not much harvest scheduled for Saturday.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: There hasn't been for quite some time.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: But I think as we enter into these more of this deep summer months, it's gonna be tough for them to find cattle.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: They already know it.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: And so they're starting to show signs that cash put could be depleting a bit, although margins um margins actually got a little worse here this week, too, with the with choice beef down in that low 370s.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: Um cash in the north, I think, is gonna be steady, although it's pretty light volume.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of volume has gotten traded in the last couple weeks with where basis has been.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: Other than that, I mean right now this little futures rally we've had has been supported by the outside markets too, Nick.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the SP 500, that climbed to a record high on Thursday again.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: And uh the rally, I mean, pretty much at this point, really driven by solid retail sales, a decline in jobless claims.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Really just we're pointing towards a resilient U.S.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: economy right now that's been supportive to a lot of commodities, not just the cattle market.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: So uh in investors have been uh really uh really set up uh pretty well here, uh pushing the S P 500 to new records, uh putting money into the protein markets, silver, copper making huge advances.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: We're trading inflation like trades at this point.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: Even it, you know, even corn and soybeans rallied today.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: And you know how hard that is to find these days.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: So uh we found a little bit of support here, and I think uh the outside markets helped uh help the cattle out this week at the end, too.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: What else do you got for us this week on the cattle market, Nick?
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think you know, basis being as strong as what it is, we got to keep moving cattle in this environment.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, the last run-up certainly has given us an opportunity to get some cattle hedge too that were placed here in the last month.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know, a lot of cattle getting placed well below break-even um on the projections and now being above 220 in most of them months.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: We I think we got a good chance to get some coverage on, and our whole thought process is if is if um you know if we're gonna maintain this level in the cattle market to going higher, we probably have really strong braces levels going forward.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: And and if but if this thing does take a take a bath someday, then we're darn glad we got them hedged.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: So right now we just continue to crush cattle when there's a little margin in them.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I'll tell you what, it's been a volatile week yet again.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: No clear top has been set yet, so the bulls continue to hold a little bit of the edge there.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: However, we do remain right at the top of that trend line that we've continued for a very long time on this cattle market.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: So I am I am gonna be really watching that this next week to see if we try to fight back towards the 20-day moving average or even the bottom end of this trading uh range at some point here, Nick.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: So thank you for your time today.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: If you need guys need anything on the cattle market, please reach out to us at Professional Egg Marketing.