Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / 2026 College Football Title Contenders: Teams That Can Win It All

Transcript

2026 College Football Title Contenders: Teams That Can Win It All · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:05
  What is up everybody? Welcome to targeting winners.
• 0:10
  National championship preview. I think it's too early.
• 0:13
  Darren, do you think it's too late?
• 0:14
  I am declaring even though today is college basketball season or
• 0:18
  the tournament. I'm declaring.
• 0:20
  Football season underway officially.
• 0:23
  It's like the college football's version of March Madness.
• 0:26
  I mean, and no, it's not early. We discussed this last time
• 0:29
  like. 4 hours. After Indiana won the whole
• 0:31
  thing, these odds were out. We're behind.
• 0:33
  Shame on us. We suck.
• 0:35
  Never too early to throw out some.
• 0:37
  I mean, we've had three shows without bets.
• 0:39
  I mean, we're betting show. What are we doing?
• 0:42
  That is true. But tonight you rectify that
• 0:45
  we've got. Some I know I did have showed up
• 0:48
  at a college basketball party today. 20 bucks for a pull
• 0:52
  reached my hand into the bag. Duke.
• 0:56
  Not a not a bad pull. So they win their, but it was
• 0:59
  only for the first round. So I guess if they win by the
• 1:01
  biggest margin I win the pool or something.
• 1:03
  I don't know, I haven't watched. The game, Can I just say you're
• 1:06
  not going to win the pool? No.
• 1:08
  They played Sienna, which you guys are very.
• 1:10
  Familiar. I saw that.
• 1:11
  Yes, we are. Only won by 6, so you're not
• 1:15
  winning. They only won by 6, yeah.
• 1:17
  Sienna was up 11 at halftime. Yeah, that's pretty nice.
• 1:20
  Too funny is I even told the guys at the party I'll be
• 1:24
  rooting for Sienna, 'cause I hate Duke.
• 1:26
  Cause one of those things, yeah, I'm the guy that did this for
• 1:29
  the football thing. I pick Miami.
• 1:30
  I'd be like, I don't want my SO like I haven't watched a single
• 1:35
  college basketball game all year.
• 1:37
  So I'm like, are they, are they still good?
• 1:38
  Duke is usually good. Duke is very good.
• 1:41
  Yes. Duke.
• 1:42
  Coach K left a couple years ago, so I don't know who's coaching
• 1:44
  them now, but Bobby Hurley, maybe Christian Lehner.
• 1:47
  Who's the coach? Some assistant who was under.
• 1:52
  Could not tell you, I don't know.
• 1:54
  Trier. Trier maybe.
• 1:56
  I think his name is. I don't know and.
• 1:57
  Michigan's A1 seat, so that's all that matters.
• 1:59
  We're here, all right. Well, it's football time, The
• 2:03
  hell of basketball. One of the best conversations of
• 2:06
  all, all the whole year. Who's going to win the national
• 2:08
  championship, Darren. Yes.
• 2:12
  What are your initial thoughts about the college football's
• 2:14
  national championship this year? Yeah, well, just for the show in
• 2:18
  general, I'm pretty excited that we're finally back to to doing
• 2:21
  some previews and we got to break down some teams over the
• 2:24
  last couple weeks, you know, opening up the apps and seeing
• 2:28
  that there's actually odds for this.
• 2:29
  Very exciting. So I know you guys all got bets,
• 2:33
  so I'm going to ask you guys, you know, we all sit there, we
• 2:37
  open our apps, we see the numbers, we look at the teams.
• 2:39
  Oh, that's yeah, they could win. No, I don't want them at that
• 2:41
  number. Oh, that, that, that's a good
• 2:42
  long shot right there. Whatever we do to think about
• 2:45
  it, Tim, we'll start with you because you know you're the
• 2:47
  brains of this operation. Oh boy, he's the.
• 2:50
  Brand of the operation and we're screwed.
• 2:52
  Yes, we are. So you open up your Hard Rock
• 2:54
  app because that's what you have in Florida.
• 2:57
  You look at all these teams, you start taking your notes.
• 3:01
  What's what's what's the one thing that you have to have in a
• 3:04
  team before you even consider putting your hard earned money
• 3:06
  down? Well, depending on who you talk
• 3:09
  to, the most important position in sports, a goalie in hockey or
• 3:14
  the quarterback in football. So quarterback only, that's the
• 3:17
  first thing I look at. If they don't have a
• 3:18
  quarterback, keep moving. Don't even you know, yeah, you
• 3:23
  know, that's that's for me, that's most important.
• 3:25
  I would say second, being a pass rush, but most important
• 3:28
  quarterback. I agree with that, Pete.
• 3:30
  Your thoughts what what was quarterback your, your top
• 3:33
  criteria? Is there something else you you
• 3:34
  factor into more importantly than that?
• 3:36
  I mean, quarterback's important, I think depth of talent.
• 3:39
  So you're looking for, you know, universities that can pull like
• 3:43
  a really deep talent pool because they can overcome a lot
• 3:47
  of things if they have a deep talent pool.
• 3:48
  Now, obviously overcoming a back quarterback does not happen, but
• 3:52
  just having depth at positions all across the board is
• 3:55
  important. So that's what I look for first.
• 3:58
  Yeah. I, I mean, I agree both those
• 4:00
  things. But yeah, I'm like, Tim, I have
• 4:03
  to see a quarterback, preferably one that that's got at least a
• 4:06
  year of experience under their belt.
• 4:08
  But also playing in a conference championship or a playoff game
• 4:11
  would be would also be beneficial.
• 4:13
  You go back to 2022 where JJ McCarthy, you know, got upset by
• 4:19
  TCU and the semis, but he had that experience. 2023 rolls
• 4:25
  around, guy wins the whole thing.
• 4:27
  So, you know, if they have the same quarterback, that's great.
• 4:30
  If they got one in the portal and you know, I need to see the
• 4:33
  same thing out of that portal quarterback from wherever he was
• 4:36
  last year as well. So and what it does for me,
• 4:38
  basically, like Tim said, you know, you don't have a proven
• 4:41
  guy like I look at Alabama, I'm just like, yeah, they got two
• 4:45
  guys who could potentially be good, but I'm not so sure a nine
• 4:48
  game SEC schedule is what you want to throw somebody out there
• 4:52
  and expect them to win it all. So while I don't completely
• 4:55
  eliminate Alabama, it's certainly a knock against them
• 4:59
  when I when I start breaking it down.
• 5:00
  But all right, enough of that Tim.
• 5:03
  You know, it's our first preview show of the year.
• 5:06
  We got about 15 or 16 more of these until we get to week zero.
• 5:10
  I don't know about you, man, but I can't think of a better way to
• 5:12
  start this preview than by listening to our Michigan man.
• 5:18
  We have to say something positive about the Ohio State
• 5:22
  Bucket currently sitting seven to one at DraftKings and the
• 5:27
  favorite at FanDuel at plus 550. So Pete Floor is yours.
• 5:31
  Can the Buckeyes win it all? And if so, are you betting them?
• 5:35
  God, thanks, man. I appreciate that start.
• 5:38
  I just just what I wanted to start talking about in March.
• 5:43
  Yeah, I mean, this is a so I just talked about depth, depth
• 5:46
  of talent, right, talent depth. This is a team that always has
• 5:50
  depth and that's the issue with them, right?
• 5:54
  So they have elite recruiting, they have depth at all
• 5:57
  positions. They have a proven system,
• 6:01
  consistent performance, right. So with this team, you can
• 6:05
  always expect that, you know, Ryan Day has proven himself as a
• 6:10
  as a quality, a quality coach, which I never doubted, right.
• 6:18
  With all the stuff that happens with Michigan and Ohio State and
• 6:20
  all that, I've always thought Ryan Day was a quality coach and
• 6:23
  he's always been relatively in the box in terms of being, you
• 6:27
  know, reasonable. So from that perspective, I
• 6:30
  think it it's it's hard to ever discount Ohio State.
• 6:33
  So from that perspective, high floor quality talent base, elite
• 6:37
  recruiting always in play, you know, always elite in in the Big
• 6:42
  10. So it's hard to overlook any of
• 6:45
  those things. So they are always in play.
• 6:46
  Now some of the concerns from the betting perspective, because
• 6:49
  that's why we're here, right? I think they're overpriced,
• 6:53
  right? That's my biggest concern here.
• 6:54
  So why I would not bet on them is that quarterback
• 6:57
  inconsistency is my biggest issue going into the season.
• 7:01
  So I'm not entirely sold on what the quarterback is going to
• 7:04
  provide for this team. So execution issues potentially,
• 7:10
  you know, I don't think they have really responded in the
• 7:13
  last two years in pressure games all the time.
• 7:16
  Clearly they have at times, but it's been inconsistent.
• 7:18
  So that's an issue for me. So, you know, overall great
• 7:23
  talent base, you know, to to me, the issue for them is, you know,
• 7:30
  can they step at the step up at the right time?
• 7:33
  They have to navigate the big 10 season.
• 7:35
  Yeah, they'll get in the playoff, but you know, can they
• 7:39
  consistently perform at the right time?
• 7:43
  And I'm I'm not sure they can. And they're just overpriced
• 7:46
  right now. So from the betting perspective,
• 7:48
  I wouldn't bet them because they're overpriced.
• 7:49
  So they won't be there. They're going to be probably
• 7:53
  they'll play themselves into maybe the semifinals and I would
• 7:57
  not be surprised by that, but I'm not sure they are a
• 8:01
  championship contender. So that's my perspective.
• 8:05
  Tim, your thoughts? Yeah.
• 8:06
  You know, it's the warm fuzzy feeling.
• 8:08
  It's a nice safe bet. I mean, every game that they
• 8:10
  play in, they're probably going to have, if not the best two
• 8:14
  players on on the field, at least one of the best players on
• 8:16
  the field, again, no matter who they play.
• 8:19
  So, you know, it's, I guess he said, not a good value safe bet
• 8:26
  if you want to feel warm and fuzzy for, you know, they're
• 8:27
  going to be this way for the foreseeable future.
• 8:29
  I'd imagine next year. We'll be talking about them
• 8:32
  pretty early in this show next year as well.
• 8:34
  Yeah. I like to swing for the fences
• 8:36
  for these big futures bets. So yeah, no bet here for me.
• 8:40
  I don't know, Darren, what do you think?
• 8:42
  Yeah, too short a number, even the seven to one at DraftKings.
• 8:45
  And again, shop around. We're just giving out DraftKings
• 8:47
  and FanDuel because they're the two most widely available apps.
• 8:50
  But you know, Pete talked about a quarterback we had mentioned
• 8:54
  on a previous show, you know, kind of kind of remember who the
• 8:56
  backup is. Well, their backup transferred
• 8:58
  to Louisville, so I don't even know who their backup is at this
• 9:01
  point. Shame on me.
• 9:03
  Lots of defensive losses. Caleb Downs, obviously the
• 9:05
  biggest one. Their top 2 linebacker.
• 9:07
  Styles and Reese are gone. And this schedule, I mean, good
• 9:12
  God, man. I mean, you get Oregon and
• 9:15
  Michigan at home. And Pete, not to curse your
• 9:16
  team, but I am actually kind of high on Michigan this year.
• 9:19
  And you know, the Ohio State, Michigan games always, you never
• 9:22
  know what's going to happen. But I mean, just look at these
• 9:24
  Rd. games. USC, which is supposedly
• 9:25
  improved, Texas, Iowa, Indiana, I mean.
• 9:29
  That's tough. You know, if they're if they're
• 9:31
  in, I'm not going to say that they're not going to be in
• 9:35
  because they do have a crap ton of talent still on this team.
• 9:38
  But, you know, you just made Matt Patricia like the highest
• 9:41
  paid defensive coordinator in the country.
• 9:43
  And I don't know, he just doesn't have the I mean, he's
• 9:47
  Got Talent, but nothing like the defense that he's that he had
• 9:51
  last year. So with that schedule, there's
• 9:52
  probably 2 losses in here. Do they get in at 10 and two?
• 9:56
  Yeah, I think they would because that schedule is so tough.
• 10:00
  You know, and Pete also mentioned Julian saying, I mean,
• 10:02
  he looked great against teams he's supposed to look great at.
• 10:05
  But, you know, do we remember Miami?
• 10:07
  Do we remember Indiana teams with really good defenses?
• 10:09
  He did not look like he was a, a, a championship winning
• 10:13
  quarterback. So with this number so low, I'm
• 10:16
  passing on these guys as well, But I I think this is a 10 and
• 10:19
  two team. They'll get in, maybe host a
• 10:21
  game and win one. But yeah, I I think I agree with
• 10:25
  Pete's semifinals at the is like their cap.
• 10:31
  All right, moving on. Next up, Hoss.
• 10:34
  Longhorns 7 to one at DraftKings, plus 750 at FanDuel.
• 10:40
  They'll be working in a new defensive coordinator.
• 10:42
  Tim, let's start with you. Your thoughts on the Longhorns?
• 10:46
  Well, they obviously have, you know, big talent, big
• 10:48
  expectations. I would say the big question for
• 10:51
  them would be consistency. They got what's his name at
• 10:54
  quarterback? I forget his name.
• 10:56
  I don't know. They don't mention them at all.
• 10:58
  Something or other I don't remember.
• 10:59
  Yeah, the Dolphins are already tanking.
• 11:01
  They assigned the perfect quarterback to tank with to make
• 11:03
  sure they get them. But I would say, yeah, so I
• 11:09
  mean, it's a fair #7 to one just cause of the consistency.
• 11:13
  You know, I consider a bet here, but you know, the the last game
• 11:19
  this year is at Texas A&M this year.
• 11:21
  So I don't know if that may affect their seating or if they
• 11:24
  get in. But yeah, they have elite
• 11:28
  talent, just consistency. So I'm going to pass on these
• 11:30
  guys. Darren, what do you think?
• 11:32
  Yeah, I like this team better than Ohio State.
• 11:35
  That being said, I don't want them even at plus 750 at FanDuel
• 11:40
  here. Obviously Arch Manning, the big
• 11:42
  name coming back. Ryan Wing goes back as well.
• 11:45
  I love their two running back additions.
• 11:47
  Hollywood Smothers, one of Tim's favorite running backs and
• 11:51
  Relief Brown from Arizona State. I think offensively they're
• 11:53
  going to be awesome. Defensively, a couple losses
• 11:56
  that concerned me, Anthony Hill and Michael Taffy, the two
• 11:59
  biggest ones. And again, their schedule is
• 12:02
  almost as bad as Ohio State. I mean, they host Ohio State.
• 12:06
  We discussed that already. Ole Miss is on their schedule.
• 12:09
  They've got the neutral game against Oklahoma every year they
• 12:12
  go to Tennessee. ANMLSUI mean it's a it's a
• 12:16
  pretty, pretty, I mean, I guess every SEC schedule is kind of
• 12:18
  rough, but there's some teams on the list that don't have a bad
• 12:21
  SEC schedule. Again, short number, if they're
• 12:24
  in the semis or the championship game, wouldn't surprise me one
• 12:27
  bit. But at 7:50, like Tim said, I
• 12:31
  mean, if I'm doing this, I'm not, I'm not putting a lot of my
• 12:35
  bankroll in in the futures markets anyway, unless it's like
• 12:38
  a win loss total or something. But yeah, wouldn't, I'd say,
• 12:43
  wouldn't surprise me if they won, but I don't want them at at
• 12:46
  plus 750, Pete. Yeah, I mean, this is a, this is
• 12:52
  a good team. I, I would say this is one of
• 12:54
  those situations where if not now, when, right, this is an
• 12:59
  elite team, They could still miss the playoff due to that
• 13:02
  tough schedule 'cause they do have a tough schedule, right?
• 13:07
  And and what happens with Sark if they don't, if they don't
• 13:09
  make the playoff, what happens to Sark?
• 13:11
  I was gonna say we we did. If not now, when we did this
• 13:14
  last year at Penn State. And then we all know what
• 13:16
  happened there. Did we just curse Sark?
• 13:18
  And I think it's the same situation here, right?
• 13:20
  I mean, like at the end of the day, you could not be more
• 13:23
  stacked to get to the playoffs and make a run than Sark is
• 13:26
  right now, right? You have an elite roster across
• 13:29
  all the units. You have coaching continuity
• 13:32
  across most of the plays, most of the coaching seeds here,
• 13:36
  balanced offense and defense, right?
• 13:38
  You've got a playoff ready. You have playoff ready depth
• 13:40
  across this team. So when, when else are you in
• 13:45
  that situation? There are very few circumstances
• 13:49
  where you have this type of team ready to go with continuity and
• 13:53
  coaching quarterback high level talent.
• 13:58
  I mean, yeah, you're in the SEC. You're you're you have a tough
• 14:01
  schedule, but right, if you're going to win the national
• 14:04
  championship, this is what you've got to run to do it.
• 14:07
  So it's their time or it's bust, right?
• 14:10
  I mean, at the end of the day, if they don't do it, if they
• 14:12
  flame out and don't make the playoffs, Sark is out.
• 14:16
  You know, if they make the playoffs and and, you know,
• 14:18
  flame out there that then the question is, is Sark out?
• 14:21
  But you know, I like Sark a lot. I think he's a strategically, I
• 14:26
  really like the guy from the offensive side, but his team has
• 14:30
  not performed when they really need to in those really tough
• 14:34
  games. This is the year to prove it,
• 14:37
  Prove, do it or don't. But this is the time to do it.
• 14:40
  So I'm really interested to see what this team does.
• 14:43
  Arch was not ready last year. He's got to be ready now it's
• 14:47
  time to show. So either do it or don't, but
• 14:50
  this is the time, right? It's too short of a number to
• 14:53
  play them, so this is not a bet to make here.
• 14:56
  But from just from the football fan perspective, I want to see
• 15:00
  what they're going to do. So I'm very interested to see
• 15:03
  what happens here. And you mentioned Art, she
• 15:04
  really picked up his play that last half of the season.
• 15:06
  We didn't even mention Cam Coleman coming over from from
• 15:09
  Auburn. That might be not only the best
• 15:11
  non quarterback portal edition, might be the best portal edition
• 15:15
  out there. I mean, like you said, Texas
• 15:18
  definitely loaded, but too short a number.
• 15:20
  I agree. All right, here we go.
• 15:24
  Let's move on. We got the fighting Marcus
• 15:26
  Freeman's. Fighting Marcus Freeman's.
• 15:28
  Also, apparently every favorite. At DraftKings is 7 to 1 Notre
• 15:32
  Dame N they are also along with Texas plus 750 at FanDuel.
• 15:41
  See, like I'm torn because I think this team can actually win
• 15:45
  it all. I just don't know if Aeneas
• 15:49
  Williams is the guy. I mean, we're not going to
• 15:51
  replace Jeremiah Love or Jadarian Price.
• 15:53
  We all know that. But if you believe the Marcus
• 15:56
  Freeman talk, Aeneas Williams is the real deal.
• 15:59
  He had some some good games last year, but that's a big position
• 16:03
  when it gets to a quarterfinal, semi final and finals time.
• 16:07
  I need to see it before I give my stamp of approval on the
• 16:12
  fighting. Marcus Freeman's here, but I, I,
• 16:17
  I have no problem with the defense.
• 16:19
  I have no problem with CJ Carr. I think their receiving room is
• 16:21
  actually going to step up and, and be excellent.
• 16:23
  They got a couple of Ohio State transfers.
• 16:25
  If you're going to get receivers from anywhere, you might as well
• 16:28
  get them from there. Just just show me some kind of a
• 16:32
  running game. And honestly, I, I don't know
• 16:35
  how much motivation they're using the snub.
• 16:38
  I, I don't think they got snub. I don't think they deserve to be
• 16:40
  in, but you know, they could go out there and meet everybody by
• 16:42
  40 and it wouldn't surprise me. But until I see a running game,
• 16:46
  this number's too short. So as much as it pains me, I'm
• 16:49
  avoiding the Irish with a bet. Pete, what do you think?
• 16:54
  Yeah, I mean, it feels like Notre Dame is the eternal
• 16:58
  bridesmaid and never the bride, right?
• 17:01
  They are a really good team with a very good talent base that is
• 17:07
  always in contention, but they're never quite good enough
• 17:14
  to beat the elite teams. Like if they play an elite team
• 17:18
  in the championship game or if they're in the semifinals or
• 17:21
  something, they just don't match up right?
• 17:25
  They're just lacking somewhere. Their quarterback is lacking.
• 17:30
  Something's lacking, right? That's the issue with Notre
• 17:33
  Dame. It's been the issue with Notre
• 17:34
  Dame for some time like they just can't get the entire
• 17:39
  package together like from the positive side right now, their
• 17:42
  defense is solid, consistent. Their schedule is positive in
• 17:48
  terms of getting there. Their physical.
• 17:50
  I love their coach love their coach right all they want right
• 17:55
  experience. My concerns QB, I think you
• 17:59
  already talked about that inconsistency, but they're big
• 18:02
  game struggles. Like I don't know how many times
• 18:06
  I've bet on Notre Dame in big games and they just look flat
• 18:11
  and I don't know what it is. It's not the coaching.
• 18:15
  There's just something missing there.
• 18:17
  And it frustrates me 'cause I'd love to see this team win a
• 18:22
  natty as much as it's funny, right?
• 18:25
  Like Darren and I, I'm a Michigan guy.
• 18:28
  He's he's a Notre Dame guy, right?
• 18:30
  We spent years when we were younger yelling at each other
• 18:33
  with our team, playing against each other.
• 18:35
  We hate each other's teams. We would yell at each other
• 18:39
  about it. And yet I don't have any hatred
• 18:41
  for Notre Dame. I love.
• 18:43
  Michigan. I would love to see them win a
• 18:45
  Maddie now and I just don't know if they're going to do it
• 18:48
  anytime soon because they're always missing something and
• 18:52
  it's frustrating to me because I'd love to see them do it.
• 18:55
  And I just, I think that's still the case.
• 18:58
  I just don't know if there are the whole package to win it.
• 19:02
  And so I'm not sure they're worthy of betting on here.
• 19:05
  So that that's my perspective. So anyway.
• 19:09
  Jim. Yeah, well, they're going to be
• 19:11
  in the playoffs. I mean, they can easily finish
• 19:13
  that schedule and be ranked #12 so I mean, it's almost like an
• 19:19
  automatic bid this year. So they're going to be there.
• 19:22
  I mean, they're well disciplined, they're well
• 19:23
  coached. I mean, just once they get to
• 19:27
  the playoffs, can they beat like multiple elite teams in a row?
• 19:30
  We'll see. That's all I have on them
• 19:32
  really. I just, you know, Pete, you
• 19:35
  know, had mentioned about Marcus Freeman.
• 19:36
  I mean, he's he's doing the media tours and every interview
• 19:39
  he's gone last couple weeks. He's he's taking responsibility
• 19:42
  for last year, not getting in. He's like we left doubt in every
• 19:45
  interview he's given. He's talking about we're, we're
• 19:48
  not going to leave any doubt this year.
• 19:50
  So I, I mean, they're giving 16 1/2 to Wisconsin in week one.
• 19:54
  Just lay it because you know we're.
• 19:56
  Going to beat him by 30, I mean Marcus.
• 20:00
  Freeman's the kind of guy that would pull over on a busy
• 20:01
  highway and help you change your tire and then take the tire iron
• 20:04
  and like club you over the head until he's happy.
• 20:06
  I don't know, I just, I just feel like he's just going to be
• 20:09
  strolling the sidelines with the same demeanor.
• 20:12
  And if they can win every game by 40, I think they're going to,
• 20:17
  I mean, style points matter when it comes to the committee and
• 20:20
  they rank them. I just think Evanes Williams is
• 20:23
  the guy. They they, they've got a shot.
• 20:26
  But again, even if he is, this number's too short.
• 20:28
  I can't. Until they face off against
• 20:30
  somebody like Texas in the playoffs or somebody like that.
• 20:35
  And then what happens, right? And, and I just need to see them
• 20:38
  step up and, and, and face A-Team like that and do
• 20:41
  something. Right, All right, let's go back
• 20:44
  to the Big 10. Since they dominate everything,
• 20:47
  the Oregon Ducks 9 to one at DraftKings and up to plus 850 at
• 20:53
  FanDuel, replacing both their offensive and defensive
• 20:56
  coordinators. Pete, is that problematic or do
• 21:00
  you think Oregon can win it all? Yeah, that is problematic.
• 21:04
  It's the only reason why I didn't pull the trigger in
• 21:06
  Oregon. I think Oregon is an elite
• 21:10
  upside team here. Their their their talent once
• 21:15
  again another team with a talent base strong recruiting pipeline
• 21:20
  physical roster balance team high ceiling right playoff
• 21:23
  experience Like I I love their head coach right?
• 21:27
  I love this team like this team's got moxie.
• 21:30
  They step up. I I love this team.
• 21:32
  I think they can play with anybody anywhere at any time.
• 21:37
  However, right? You nailed it right.
• 21:40
  This coordinator turnover scares me.
• 21:44
  I wanted to pick Oregon. I wanted I that was my going to
• 21:49
  be my pick here for this show today because I really think
• 21:53
  that they have the caliber, the players, I think most everything
• 21:57
  is in place and I do think that elite quarterback potential as
• 22:01
  well. I think everything is in place
• 22:03
  here for them to do it. I am just a little concerned
• 22:06
  about the coordinator turnover. Now, if that plays itself out
• 22:10
  well, then this team is is is a beast and it's going to be
• 22:14
  really especially I think this team is going to get better
• 22:18
  later in the season. I think they're going to look a
• 22:20
  little clunky and a little maybe disjointed early in the season.
• 22:26
  But I think there's a season goes on, especially later in the
• 22:29
  season, there's nobody who's going to want to play over
• 22:31
  again. I think this team is going to be
• 22:33
  really, really good later in the season and there ain't nobody
• 22:37
  going to going to want to play them in the playoffs.
• 22:39
  That's my perspective on them. I think they're going to be
• 22:41
  really good teams. So from that viewpoint, I wanted
• 22:45
  to bet on them because I think they are going to be very, very
• 22:49
  dangerous in the playoffs. The only thing that stopped me
• 22:53
  was the coordinator thing because I just, it's a, it's a
• 22:55
  big unknown that I don't know what's going to happen with
• 22:57
  that. But honestly, I would not for a
• 23:01
  minute, I, I anybody wants to bet on Oregon, you should have
• 23:05
  at it because I, I truly think that there's a lot of upside
• 23:07
  here. So that's my perspective on
• 23:09
  them. Ted, your thoughts on the Ducks?
• 23:13
  Well, if they can withstand the physical matchups, they do have
• 23:17
  a good backup quarterback. The Nebraska kid went up there,
• 23:20
  right? Yeah.
• 23:22
  So, so having some main guy, they they're they're just
• 23:26
  reloaded with the new kid. Definitely enough talent to do
• 23:30
  it, so if they don't, it's not for a lack of talent OR a lack
• 23:34
  of uniform combinations. But.
• 23:36
  Right, so they change it half time, put another one on.
• 23:40
  They'll win the best, best minor.
• 23:41
  Award. So, so all right.
• 23:46
  Yeah, I like it. Oh, well, I don't get a say on
• 23:48
  the Ducks. That's.
• 23:49
  No, you don't get a say on the Ducks is.
• 23:50
  Your hat on too tight. Come on.
• 23:54
  But basically the good thing is what you guys already said was
• 23:57
  basically what I had in my notes.
• 23:59
  Pete talked about the quarterback and the talent that
• 24:01
  they have and the loss coordinator is concerning.
• 24:04
  And Tim mentioned that they actually do have a legit backup.
• 24:06
  And Dylan Rayola from Nebraska schedules not terrible.
• 24:12
  Michigan and Washington come there, tough Rd. games.
• 24:15
  USC and Ohio State, maybe some issues there, but we talked
• 24:22
  about Cam Coleman possibly being the biggest portal addition.
• 24:24
  Perhaps the biggest person not going into the portal and
• 24:28
  staying put was Dante Moore. And if he's not sitting in New
• 24:33
  York as one of four guys waiting to see if he wins the Heisman or
• 24:36
  not, something's going to be really wrong here.
• 24:38
  But yeah, I, I did like Oregon as well.
• 24:40
  But yeah, that the, you know, Bobby Moore has a great year.
• 24:43
  Now he's got to learn something under a new offense coordinator.
• 24:46
  You don't know what this defense is going to look like.
• 24:48
  They did get Koi Parrot from Minnesota.
• 24:50
  I think that's a great ad to their to their secondary, but I
• 24:54
  like them. I I didn't fire on them.
• 24:56
  I went a little longer shot here down the board, but I agree with
• 24:59
  you guys. If they weren't all, no
• 25:01
  surprise. I would not be surprised at all
• 25:03
  had a. Comment asking about Racetrack
• 25:05
  Ray. What's he going on the show?
• 25:08
  His bet would probably be Oregon.
• 25:10
  All for the college football Oregon.
• 25:13
  All. All right, next we're sticking
• 25:21
  in the Big 10 Indiana Hoosiers 16 and O last year's national
• 25:24
  champions, the fighting Kurt Zignetti's also stop me if
• 25:28
  you've heard this before 7:00 to 1:00 on DraftKings, 8 to one on
• 25:33
  FanDuel. Tim, I know you love you some
• 25:36
  Indiana because they beat your your Miami U in the title game.
• 25:39
  So that's right, Indiana repeating or no?
• 25:43
  I. Mean they Google them he wins
• 25:46
  they could I mean you know they're no longer the Cinderella
• 25:50
  team. So that'd be the one thing
• 25:52
  people are you know when you win going to get everybody's best
• 25:56
  game every week. Let's see if they can withstand
• 25:57
  that. So the expectations are
• 25:59
  obviously sky high. Love the coach, you know, you
• 26:04
  know no nonsense kind of guy. Maybe a modern day Bill Parcells
• 26:08
  if you will. But yeah, I loved the team,
• 26:11
  loved the coach. They could do it.
• 26:12
  I would not be surprised if they did it.
• 26:15
  I won't, certainly won't. Wouldn't be shocked.
• 26:18
  I got them at +800 here. Not placing a bet on them, but
• 26:22
  love everything about them. The schedule doesn't look too
• 26:26
  horrible either. I mean, there's a few one rough
• 26:28
  stretch here in the middle, but. Yeah, I'm going to disagree.
• 26:32
  They're they're not repeating. I mean, one it's it's just so
• 26:36
  damn tough to do, but just just a ton of losses.
• 26:38
  I mean, God damn, Mendo's obviously the biggest one.
• 26:42
  DeAngelo Pons. They lost their two wide
• 26:43
  receivers, Cooper and Sarah Kail Kamar's gone from that defensive
• 26:47
  line. I do like the Josh Hoover
• 26:50
  edition. I will say that I think that
• 26:53
  might be the slightest of upgrades over Mendoza and you
• 26:57
  guys can tell me if I'm crazy there.
• 26:58
  But I mean that dude had to carry the load at TCU.
• 27:01
  He is not going to have to do that here.
• 27:03
  So that's helpful. I am concerned about his
• 27:06
  turnovers. You know, Signetti, he's not
• 27:09
  down with the turnovers and this dude's had like double digit
• 27:12
  turnovers, interceptions the last few years.
• 27:14
  So that needs to Tim, we will talk about how bad Florida
• 27:19
  State's going to be this year because.
• 27:21
  Yes, we we'll get. There.
• 27:23
  But yeah, I mean, I love the image for Nick Marsh to replace
• 27:27
  those guys that are leaving. And yeah, Tim mentioned the
• 27:30
  schedule they do host. Look that.
• 27:36
  But then going to Michigan and Washington to the two teams who
• 27:39
  I think are going to be really sneaky good this year.
• 27:41
  So they'll probably get in, but they're not repeating.
• 27:46
  I don't want nothing to do with them, Pete.
• 27:48
  Well, number one, nobody repeats.
• 27:50
  That's not going to happen, especially coming out of the Big
• 27:53
  10. Come on, every you're not coming
• 27:55
  out of the Big 10 with Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, they're
• 27:59
  they're all going to have their sights set on this team.
• 28:02
  That's not going to happen. So you're not repeating #2
• 28:06
  Mendoza was so good last year. I don't care who you bring in
• 28:11
  behind that. He was so good.
• 28:14
  He was so clutched. Like that's hard to replace.
• 28:19
  I don't care how good you think somebody is behind him that
• 28:23
  that's irrelevant. The dude was clutched and to
• 28:26
  replace that, that's hard to do. So no, they're going to be a
• 28:30
  good team. They'll be fine.
• 28:31
  But they we're played and I love the coach as well.
• 28:35
  Fantastic. But you're not repeating, so
• 28:38
  that's not happening. So that's out.
• 28:40
  I would never bet on. Nobody repeats, so that's out.
• 28:43
  Yeah, it's definitely tough to do.
• 28:45
  So we all hate Indiana. So yeah, bet on them to win it
• 28:48
  all. Because.
• 28:50
  All. Right, move it on.
• 28:52
  Let's talk a little SEC here. The Georgia Bulldogs 11 to one
• 28:55
  at DraftKings. 12:50 at FanDuel, God, I hate to say this.
• 29:00
  I really like this team. If they can find a couple of
• 29:03
  people to catch the ball and remember what it's like to
• 29:06
  actually sack the opposing quarterback, this team's
• 29:09
  possibly winning this conference again.
• 29:11
  At the very least, they'll be playing the conference title
• 29:13
  game. Bye week is certainly possible.
• 29:16
  This this SEC gauntlet. No, they host Oklahoma, they go
• 29:23
  to Alabama and Ole Miss. They don't really get anybody
• 29:25
  else tough on that schedule there.
• 29:28
  I mean, if you believe in Florida, OK, that's one thing.
• 29:32
  But I mean look at that schedule.
• 29:34
  I mean come on for an SEC schedule, Kirby Kirby got must
• 29:38
  have cashed in some favors or something.
• 29:40
  But this team could win it all. I I was going to bet the these
• 29:45
  guys and I believe Tim you were going to do the same thing.
• 29:47
  But again, I went with a little higher odd team discussing down
• 29:51
  the line, so I like them. If you wanted to bet them, I
• 29:54
  would not blame you one bit. I could certainly see him at
• 29:56
  least playing for the championship at worst.
• 29:58
  Pete, what are your thoughts? Yeah, obviously it's Georgia.
• 30:04
  They're they have quality talent, elite defense, top
• 30:08
  recruiting. They're going to be physical.
• 30:11
  They have the culture in place, they have depth.
• 30:15
  All those things are there until I see an answer at quarterback
• 30:20
  like a true answer at quarterback that's consistent,
• 30:24
  that is semi elite, I don't think they can win, you know,
• 30:31
  elite games late in the playoffs.
• 30:35
  So maybe right. So maybe we'll see that play
• 30:37
  itself out, but I've not seen it of late.
• 30:39
  And I do not, I do not think we're going to see that anytime
• 30:43
  soon. But I could be wrong, right?
• 30:45
  We, I could, we could see somebody step up, but I've just
• 30:48
  not, I don't see somebody in the roster right now in the
• 30:51
  quarterback position. That excites me, but I could be
• 30:56
  proven wrong. I, I, but I, I just don't see
• 30:58
  it. And, and we, the first thing Tim
• 31:00
  said and, and you agreed with was quarterback, quarterback
• 31:04
  play #1 right. Well, who's the elite
• 31:07
  quarterback in this roster who's going to carry them through the
• 31:09
  playoffs? Who's the guy that's going to
• 31:11
  lead him to the to the natty, right?
• 31:14
  I don't see that guy. I really don't.
• 31:16
  So that's fine and all, but I really don't see that person on
• 31:20
  this roster. So it's a match up against the
• 31:23
  other quarterbacks We've talked about who's going to match up
• 31:25
  with Arch, Who's going to match up with the other guys?
• 31:28
  I don't see the guy. So that's my issue with them as
• 31:30
  they have a really good team, really good depth, really good
• 31:34
  defense, but they don't have the quarterback to me, right.
• 31:38
  Wow, he's very anti gunner Stockton.
• 31:40
  I did not have that on my bingo card.
• 31:44
  Tim, thoughts on the Bulldogs? Well, obviously they're very
• 31:47
  well coached and they're going up against like arch and all
• 31:50
  that. They do have a Kirby Smart coach
• 31:52
  defense and you know, I saw Kirby Smart with the Zingers.
• 31:56
  They had some SEC coaches meeting or and he asked Steve
• 32:00
  Spurrier was there, He said, yeah, your daughter's must be a
• 32:02
  great realtor in Gainesville because John Summerall is the
• 32:04
  fourth Florida coach I've coached against since I've been
• 32:07
  here. So he's bringing the Zingers.
• 32:11
  So yeah, it's almost tempting to bet it 'cause you know, you're
• 32:14
  getting 12:50 with Georgia. I mean, yeah, I can see I was
• 32:18
  very attractive. I wouldn't turn my nose up at
• 32:20
  the Ben here, but I did not so. But yeah, I think Georgia would
• 32:26
  definitely be one of the teams there at the end where they can
• 32:28
  get over to hump with the quarterback play.
• 32:30
  We'll see, yeah. We'll.
• 32:32
  See, all right, moving on to Tim's favorite school, but we're
• 32:34
  not going to start with you, man.
• 32:35
  None of the Miami Hurricanes, 15 to one at DraftKings, 13 to one
• 32:42
  at FanDuel. No coaching changes or
• 32:44
  coordinator changes here to report.
• 32:46
  Lucky for them, Pete is EU back. But more importantly, are they
• 32:51
  going back? I mean, they have talent.
• 32:54
  I mean, it's another school that draws talent, right?
• 32:57
  So they have depth, they have talent, they have speed, they
• 33:00
  have playmakers, right? We expect athleticism from them.
• 33:05
  So there's a lot of upside, right?
• 33:07
  But Miami is like Tim talks about all the time, like Miami
• 33:12
  is. They are a caricature of
• 33:16
  themselves. They are inconsistent, right?
• 33:20
  They can have amazingly great games or look unbeatable and the
• 33:25
  next week they come out and they look like they don't even know
• 33:27
  what the hell they're doing, right?
• 33:29
  And that is Miami. And I think that's the issue
• 33:33
  with them. So yeah, they'll make the
• 33:35
  playoffs. I I think they'll make the
• 33:37
  playoffs. I, I actually do, I think they
• 33:39
  have the talent to do that, the offense, the playmakers, all of
• 33:42
  that. But but they're inconsistent
• 33:45
  coaching. We've talked about coaching many
• 33:48
  times before and all of that. I I just think that they are too
• 33:52
  inconsistent to make a run through the playoffs.
• 33:57
  I think last year was their year to do it if they were going to
• 33:59
  do it, and I think they missed that opportunity.
• 34:02
  So yeah, so they might make the playoff, but they they are not
• 34:06
  consistent enough to to win multiple games in a row against
• 34:09
  really good teams. They're likely to shoot
• 34:11
  themselves on the foot or do something stupid.
• 34:13
  And that's just what Miami does. So, which makes Tim happy, but
• 34:19
  at the end of the day, pop. In my notes.
• 34:21
  Yeah, to to bet on them. I mean, it's it's a little
• 34:24
  frustrating because you don't know what you're going to get.
• 34:26
  So yeah. So that's that's my breed on
• 34:29
  Miami. Especially with the quarterback
• 34:31
  plays. Mensa really an upgrade from
• 34:32
  Beck? No.
• 34:35
  There we go. So yeah, hopefully Crystal Ball
• 34:40
  keeps crystal balling a couple more times.
• 34:43
  It's nice to see them actually leave Florida more than once or
• 34:46
  twice this year. I think they got the at Clemson,
• 34:49
  at Notre Dame. Hopefully it's snowing in Notre
• 34:51
  Dame. When's that game?
• 34:52
  Is that like late October? Sometime in like late October.
• 34:57
  Early, hopefully. Winter comes early and there's
• 34:58
  like 3 feet of snow on the ground, 10° I don't think, even
• 35:03
  in Notre Dame, I don't think that's possible in October.
• 35:05
  I don't have to wait till November for that.
• 35:06
  But. Yeah, one of the rare occasions
• 35:09
  I'd be rooting for Notre Dame. But yeah, that's what I got.
• 35:12
  Consistency, quarterback play and waiting for Crystal Ball to
• 35:15
  screw it up. But they Got Talent, you know,
• 35:19
  everywhere. You can't throw a rock without
• 35:21
  hitting a good football player in Miami.
• 35:24
  The the only problem I have with with what your guys are waiting
• 35:27
  for Cristobal to crystal ball. He didn't really crystal ball
• 35:29
  last year. He didn't.
• 35:30
  I was scared. He did not.
• 35:32
  Arson. Beck.
• 35:32
  Carson. Beck.
• 35:33
  That's. What I said.
• 35:34
  Finally turned a corner and he's not going to crystal ball his
• 35:36
  team because we waited. We we brought it up multiple
• 35:39
  times, OK, this is a game where we're going to crystal ball.
• 35:42
  They never did. And that, that final game, he he
• 35:45
  didn't do anything questionable, I don't think in that game.
• 35:49
  The problem I have with them is he recruited a crap ton of
• 35:53
  talent on the O line and the D line.
• 35:54
  A lot of those guys left. So we'll have to see how deep
• 35:59
  that that talent is because both of those units are, are pretty
• 36:02
  heavily affected. But yeah, Pete said they'll
• 36:05
  they'll get in the playoffs. He's right.
• 36:06
  It's the ACC. That schedule is trash.
• 36:09
  I mean, they'll win 10 games by accident, but if they don't get
• 36:13
  any? HBC Darren, come on.
• 36:15
  Well, I've heard that rumor, but hey, they were in the finals,
• 36:19
  unlike the SEC, so it doesn't mean more there.
• 36:22
  But yeah, that, I mean, that's how they dominated their games.
• 36:25
  If you watch any of their games, I mean, they won by running the
• 36:27
  ball. Yes.
• 36:27
  Mark Fletcher's back. What kind of line is he going to
• 36:30
  run against Malachi? Tony's back.
• 36:32
  See, how is he going to have time to to do what he does if
• 36:35
  that offensive line can't protect Mensa?
• 36:37
  I like Mensa just because of mobility.
• 36:39
  If that old line does not come together quickly, he he can
• 36:42
  still make some things happen. I'm not sure Carson Beck could
• 36:45
  do that. But yeah, I'm not going to bet
• 36:48
  him. I think, like what Tim said,
• 36:50
  they start to play a deeper team that they might actually get
• 36:54
  exposed there. So they'll get in because of the
• 36:57
  conference they're in and their terrible schedule.
• 36:59
  Of course, I'm a Notre Dame fan. I'm bashing schedules but yeah
• 37:03
  they'll get in but I I don't want any part of them.
• 37:05
  No. All right, now let's get on the
• 37:09
  lane train. 13 to one at DraftKings, 15 to one at
• 37:16
  FanDuel. Tim, we're going to let you go
• 37:18
  first because Pete and I. Pants are coming home.
• 37:24
  He is back. He could not reach a contract
• 37:27
  with the Shah of Iran. So he is not the new Ayatollah.
• 37:31
  He is going to stay put in LSU for a little bit.
• 37:33
  He. Should.
• 37:34
  Be he should be obviously explosive potential on this team
• 37:42
  if the defense comes together. It's a very interesting bet
• 37:45
  here. Whole new NIL commitment from
• 37:50
  the team. I think someone reported upwards
• 37:52
  of 20 to 25,000,000 a year. This team is going to be kind of
• 37:56
  like Ohio State in the years to come.
• 37:58
  I do not have a bet, but I hear someone else does.
• 38:01
  So Darren, why don't you take it away?
• 38:03
  I'll. Go quick.
• 38:04
  I don't have any concerns with the defense.
• 38:06
  I think the best thing they did was keep their defensive
• 38:08
  coordinator. I think defensively they're
• 38:10
  going to be fine. They were fine last year.
• 38:12
  I don't see why that should change.
• 38:14
  My concern is with the offensive side of the ball.
• 38:16
  They've got a lot of quality pieces.
• 38:19
  I mean, Sam Levitt, obviously the biggest one, Jordan Seaton,
• 38:23
  that offensive lineman from Colorado being another gigantic
• 38:26
  1. You know, they kept both their
• 38:29
  running backs, but the old line was terrible.
• 38:30
  So the old line looks like this definitely improved.
• 38:33
  It all is going to determine how quickly this offense comes
• 38:36
  together. And you look at that schedule
• 38:39
  right there. September is not a time when you
• 38:42
  need offensive questions. All right, I I get their double
• 38:44
  digit favors against Clemson, but it's still Clemson.
• 38:47
  And then you got Ole Miss. Something tells me that game
• 38:49
  might be on TV. I don't, no.
• 38:52
  Maybe. Maybe you get it on the SEC
• 38:56
  Network, Channel 4, whatever, and then A&M right after that.
• 38:59
  So I mean, yeah, I I've got some bets here and I know somebody
• 39:03
  else in this room does this ticket could be in the trash by
• 39:06
  the end of September. But you know, the the schedule's
• 39:10
  not Fern as he's just not all They get A&M at home, they get
• 39:14
  Bam at home, they get Texas at home.
• 39:16
  They do get Clemson at home, even though it's not a
• 39:17
  conference game. Tough Rd. game should be Ole
• 39:20
  Miss and Tennessee. And you know, who knows what
• 39:23
  what those guys are. I mean, apparently it's still up
• 39:25
  in the air whether Trinidad Chamble's even going to play or
• 39:27
  not. I guess the NCAA sued to to try
• 39:29
  and kick him back out of school again.
• 39:30
  So I don't know. But the offense comes together.
• 39:34
  This team will be in the playoffs and we can worry about
• 39:37
  hedging our bets if necessary. But yeah, we talked about also
• 39:41
  I'll build your bankroll. Look at those profit boots.
• 39:44
  Futures bets are perfect for profit boost if they're
• 39:47
  available on any app because you can take a small amount of
• 39:49
  money, which is usually what they limit you to.
• 39:52
  And you can even even add those odds.
• 39:54
  I got a 20% boost here. It's why it's like, wow, how'd
• 39:56
  you get 1800 when the odds are 1500?
• 39:59
  This is how I use my profit boost.
• 40:01
  So I do have 1/2 unit on LSU to win it all at 18 to 1B.
• 40:08
  Man, I could talk about LSU for an hour.
• 40:11
  This is the fascinating team on the board, man, because you're
• 40:14
  not betting on what they were, you're betting on Elaine, right?
• 40:18
  And what it can do with this team going forward, right?
• 40:21
  So he clearly elevates the offense immediately, right?
• 40:26
  This is a #1 portal class. If you look at the town they
• 40:31
  brought in, this is a number one class.
• 40:34
  So they have elite skill talent that was already in place along
• 40:39
  with the portal class they brought in, right?
• 40:41
  So scheme, lane scheme, talent in place, explosive offense that
• 40:47
  can win playoff games, period, right?
• 40:49
  High and upside, no question about that.
• 40:53
  So what the hell of their concerns, right?
• 40:55
  So year one, right? So bringing any coach in new
• 40:59
  system, all that, obviously it's an issue.
• 41:01
  Could be could be an issue, who knows.
• 41:04
  Defensive consistency is going to be a challenge, right?
• 41:07
  High roster turnover could be a challenge.
• 41:12
  SEC, you know, schedule could be a challenge, But this is a major
• 41:18
  transformation to this program. And, and really, I mean, the
• 41:23
  upside is just the, the, the upside could be incredible,
• 41:27
  right? So, I mean, there's a lot that
• 41:30
  could be happening here. So this is not a rebuild.
• 41:31
  This is a system upgrade from from that perspective.
• 41:34
  It's it's it's very intriguing. They have the most impactful
• 41:39
  portal class in the country. As I mentioned already, the
• 41:41
  offensive ceiling, this is national title level offensive
• 41:45
  ceiling, especially if you mentioned quarterback and all
• 41:48
  that. I mean, it's my only concern
• 41:52
  about that. I have two, right, Two concerns,
• 41:54
  right. Number one is the turnover,
• 41:57
  right, just bringing in a new system.
• 41:59
  The second is the defense or the defensive reality.
• 42:02
  If you can get past those two things, I mean, this team should
• 42:06
  be really, really good. So, you know, with the number
• 42:10
  they're at, I mean, it's a really, really good bat.
• 42:15
  Was it 15 to 1? I mean, without, without the
• 42:17
  boost, it's like 15 to one right now.
• 42:20
  I mean, that's a really good number for a team of this
• 42:25
  quality with this much depth with a coach of this caliber.
• 42:30
  Like you don't get that that often.
• 42:34
  To me, it's a no brainer. So I I love it.
• 42:38
  So I'm certainly all in on this bet because I think the upside
• 42:43
  is amazing. And now could it could implode
• 42:45
  somehow? Perhaps, but I I don't I don't
• 42:49
  see that happening. I I think this is the place
• 42:51
  where Lane should be. I think it's the place he should
• 42:53
  have been for some time. The fanbase has like immediately
• 42:58
  embrace the guy, so I think there's a lot of very positive
• 43:02
  things coming out of this so I'm excited for him and them and the
• 43:07
  whole thing and yeah so I'm all in so this is one of one of my 2
• 43:13
  bets is LSU all day long so let. Me just put your one of those
• 43:18
  concerns of yours to eat it just a tad and then we'll move on.
• 43:22
  That's about the turnover. Well, the head coach and the OC
• 43:24
  both came from the same school. I don't there's familiarity
• 43:27
  there. Remember, that's a team that won
• 43:30
  10 games last three years and and was a big part of that team.
• 43:33
  Guys like Jackson Dart, Trinidad, Chambliss, you know
• 43:36
  who's got that same skill set, Sam Levitt.
• 43:39
  So I know it's the I hope it's not.
• 43:43
  I hope is that because of that, it comes together quicker than
• 43:46
  we're hoping. It's the wrestling players.
• 43:49
  I get right. If they get all on board, you'll
• 43:51
  be amazing. We could see some fireworks
• 43:53
  immediately, which would be awesome.
• 43:56
  Yeah, I don't like that they're starting against Clemson though,
• 43:58
  but if they come out and I'll feel a lot better.
• 44:01
  But anyway, all right, let's go to Texas for the last two here.
• 44:07
  The Texas Tech red rate is 15 to one at DK, 61 at FanDuel.
• 44:12
  I will start here because I don't have a whole lot.
• 44:15
  This team was a defensive powerhouse, but offensively they
• 44:19
  really struggled with was it Baron Morton, I believe was
• 44:22
  their quarterback. Well, they got possibly the best
• 44:25
  quarterback in the portal depending on who you read and
• 44:28
  Brendan Sorsby from Cincinnati. So while their offense will
• 44:31
  improve, I have a few questions about their defense.
• 44:34
  Just because they lost David Bailey, they lost Lee Hunter,
• 44:37
  they lost Jacob Rodriguez. All these guys are going in the
• 44:39
  NFL. They need to be replaced.
• 44:41
  If they replace them with quality talent, this team's
• 44:43
  going to, I mean, they're already like a -, 115 favorite
• 44:46
  to win the Big 12. Like nobody else is like better
• 44:48
  than 7 to 1. So that already tells you this
• 44:51
  should be a playoff team without even breaking too much of A
• 44:53
  sweat here. I like them.
• 44:56
  Their schedule is cake. But then again, it's the Big 12.
• 44:59
  It doesn't seem like anybody's going to challenge them here.
• 45:01
  So again, as long as this offense gels, you know, they're
• 45:05
  kept their running back room intact.
• 45:07
  And again, Soresby, if he can, we can get on the same page with
• 45:10
  the receivers quick, just like LSU.
• 45:12
  Yeah, I mean, there one of two teams whose over under win total
• 45:15
  is 11 1/2, Notre Dame being the other.
• 45:18
  So should easily be a playoff team barring some injuries to
• 45:22
  Soresby and maybe a few other people.
• 45:24
  But I like them. Pete, what do you think about
• 45:28
  the Red Raiders? I think they're intriguing,
• 45:31
  right? They were intriguing last year
• 45:32
  as well. Like the wheels came off a
• 45:34
  little bit late in the season, but they're intriguing.
• 45:39
  They spent a lot of money building this team, and I think
• 45:42
  it's a pretty good team. Can they step up in the big
• 45:47
  games? Yeah.
• 45:49
  We haven't seen that play itself out so much, but I would expect
• 45:54
  some explosive offense momentum. So yeah, I mean, I, I think if
• 46:01
  you were looking for a forget my bet later, we'll talk about some
• 46:05
  other things. But like if you're looking for a
• 46:07
  maybe a maybe that's much a surprise team, but a team that,
• 46:13
  you know, they're a little slightly under the radar, kind
• 46:15
  of like a step or two down that could do something, you know, if
• 46:21
  all the things go right and play out correctly, this this could
• 46:25
  be one of those teams, right? I think they have some a lot of
• 46:30
  things in place here that could work out well, like the team,
• 46:35
  like the coaching, you know, I like the offense.
• 46:40
  I think they're going to be high-powered.
• 46:42
  You know, I'm not sure what the defense is going to do this
• 46:44
  year. I think it'll be good, but I I
• 46:45
  don't know. So the question is what they do?
• 46:48
  What do they do in big games? That's the big question.
• 46:52
  But I think this is a dangerous team.
• 46:56
  It is a team that I would not want to play in the playoffs
• 46:59
  because I think they can be very dangerous and if properly
• 47:04
  motivated can be a problem. And so from that perspective,
• 47:09
  yeah, they're they are interesting.
• 47:12
  I didn't bet them, but they are interesting.
• 47:14
  So deal with that what you may. Well, Tim did something I did.
• 47:20
  Something with. This Yeah, Tim, tell us why you
• 47:23
  love you some Red Raiders. Well, what did I say at the
• 47:26
  beginning of the show? Quarterback, They got the
• 47:29
  Cincinnati kid there, the shout out, Steve McQueen, he's coming
• 47:33
  in. That's a definite upgrade at the
• 47:35
  position. I'm not too worried about the
• 47:38
  defense. They're going to find people.
• 47:40
  It's Texas. Texas is just like Miami and
• 47:43
  they've got plenty of oil money to throw around the offense to
• 47:47
  be very explosive. I'm looking at this schedule and
• 47:51
  unless if the win total is 12 1/2, I'm going to bet the over
• 47:54
  on this win total as well. So I don't see I don't see AI
• 48:00
  don't see a loss on his schedule at all.
• 48:02
  So they're going to be in the playoffs are going to be there
• 48:03
  at the end 16 to 1. So I hope they put up the thing
• 48:07
  here. I got my bet here, Texas Tech.
• 48:10
  The red rate is plus 1600 and that was on Hard Rock Bet.
• 48:16
  And that's it for me. Plain and simple.
• 48:18
  They got the quarterback. Last time we're breaking down,
• 48:21
  let's look at the team that Tim kicked to the curb.
• 48:26
  I was close to betting these guys again.
• 48:29
  And decided you know what, A&M, poor Marcel Reed and the Aggies
• 48:35
  disowned by Tim Pete can Can you give the Aggie backers some
• 48:40
  support here? Or was Tim Wright to hop off the
• 48:42
  bandwagon? I mean, I came in today
• 48:44
  expecting Tim to be talking about Texas A&M.
• 48:47
  So Texas Tech is final and they will get in the playoff, but
• 48:51
  what do they do there is the question, right?
• 48:53
  They'll get, they're going to get in, but what do they do?
• 48:56
  Texas A&M is intriguing, right? Because I think they will also
• 48:59
  get in. They are a quiet contender.
• 49:02
  They have strong talent. You know, their their talent
• 49:05
  base is excellent. Their defense is a big positive
• 49:10
  continuity. I think their path to the SEC is
• 49:13
  positive this year. Their depth is very good.
• 49:16
  Their recruiting is very good. What are the issues with A&M?
• 49:21
  I'm guessing because Tim was kind of talking about A and MA
• 49:24
  couple weeks ago and I'm guessing what would scare him
• 49:29
  away from them is potentially the quarterback play maybe,
• 49:35
  right? And the offensive inconsistency,
• 49:38
  because that would be my biggest concerns with this team, right?
• 49:41
  QB and the offensive inconsistency, right?
• 49:44
  So to me, that's their biggest issue.
• 49:47
  So that said, right, this team, if they make the playoff, which
• 49:52
  I think they will, is a dangerous team, right?
• 49:57
  I mean, if the, if the, if they can get the QB play to be
• 50:01
  reasonably good, the rest of the team, the depth, everything else
• 50:06
  is pretty solid. They they could be a they could
• 50:10
  be a concerning team, another team that I would be a little
• 50:14
  hesitant to play. So I think they're a good team.
• 50:17
  I, I don't think they're a real major threat to win the natty,
• 50:21
  But then again, if they get the right path, if the QB play steps
• 50:26
  up, maybe. But yeah, I would not bet on
• 50:31
  them to win the whole thing. But, and again, they're a team
• 50:34
  that has enough depth where if suddenly the QB is like shooting
• 50:39
  the lights out or something, they absolutely could.
• 50:41
  So who knows? D.
• 50:46
  All right, well, we haven't had many disagreements here, Mama.
• 50:48
  Disagree. I don't think this is a playoff
• 50:50
  team. I mean, just looking at that
• 50:53
  schedule right there, yes, they only have 5 road games, but LSU,
• 50:56
  Missouri, Bama, South Carolina and Oklahoma, those are all
• 50:59
  losable. Those are all easily losable.
• 51:02
  And, and we talked about Julian saying at the start of the show
• 51:04
  about, hey, he did great against the teams he was supposed to do
• 51:07
  great against, but not when you know, he went against some solid
• 51:11
  teams. Marcel Reed is is the same guy
• 51:14
  and he needs to improve for this team to, I think make the
• 51:18
  playoffs. I mean, I think losing KC
• 51:20
  Concepcion is going to hurt. They lost a key contributor on
• 51:23
  each of the three groups on the defense.
• 51:27
  I, I, I mean, I'm looking at this schedule while Pete's
• 51:30
  talking and I and when he said playoff team, I'm like, oh,
• 51:33
  good. We finally get to disagree once
• 51:35
  on this show on something besides Darian Mensa.
• 51:37
  I, I don't I don't see it, man. I I mean, yeah, now Marcel Reed
• 51:42
  could improve and and and be that guy, but that is not it's
• 51:48
  tough. That's a tough schedule.
• 51:51
  So I what if they? Do.
• 51:52
  But if they do, but. No, you're on a shoe with the
• 51:54
  quarterback. I mean, Marceau reads my guy.
• 51:56
  But I'm I'm sure when we get to the Heisman show, we'll be
• 52:01
  talking about him again. He has another year under his
• 52:03
  belt. But my concern was all the other
• 52:05
  things that that I know Elko coaches the defense, but they
• 52:08
  lost players all over the defense.
• 52:09
  They lost the running back. He's going to be in the NFL.
• 52:11
  They lost conception, you know, and he's going to be a first
• 52:13
  round pick. So that's.
• 52:15
  Tough, yeah, and. Again, one of two teams we're
• 52:17
  talking about tonight have to replace both coordinators.
• 52:20
  Yeah, it's tough. And now?
• 52:21
  Marcel Reed's got to learn a new system.
• 52:24
  I'm sure it'll be the same system they got to find somebody
• 52:27
  else to, I mean. Well, they got, well, Buster
• 52:29
  Faulkner from Georgia Tech. So, I mean, they definitely got
• 52:31
  themselves a good one. But yeah, I don't, yeah, I don't
• 52:36
  think this is a playoff team. Well, those are the top, though.
• 52:40
  Yeah, here we go. Those were the top, you know,
• 52:42
  the 10 of according to FanDuel and DraftKings.
• 52:45
  Let's talk a couple long shots go.
• 52:47
  Crazy Pete. You've got a weird one here,
• 52:49
  piqued by interest. Let's hear it.
• 52:54
  Yeah, wow, That's a lot of numbers.
• 52:57
  All right, so I I threw what yesterday, I think because I was
• 53:02
  talking to Tim on a Tuesday night and they were 100 to 1.
• 53:07
  I didn't bet anything. And then we were putting these
• 53:09
  graphics in order and I was taking a look at the odds and
• 53:12
  I'm like, oh, they went up to 125 to 1.
• 53:15
  And then the next day I message said, Tim, we're going to need a
• 53:17
  graphic for BYU because I just bet them to to win it all.
• 53:22
  We talked about shopping around, especially in futures markets.
• 53:26
  DraftKings, BYU is currently sitting at +7000 at fan or not.
• 53:34
  FanDuel, bet MGM, they're sitting at +8000 at FanDuel,
• 53:37
  they're at plus 12,500. That's an insane discrepancy.
• 53:42
  This is partially a number play. 125 to 1 is incredibly juicy.
• 53:47
  Let's remember Indiana was 100 to one pre season last year.
• 53:51
  But if you just look at this team, I mean, defensively this
• 53:53
  team is always solid. They don't lose a lot of players
• 53:55
  to the NFL. They brought in Cade Uluave.
• 53:59
  I'm probably pronouncing that wrong lineback from Cal who had
• 54:01
  like 97 tags last year. So he's probably going to help
• 54:04
  anchor that defense. I mean, you know, playing in BYU
• 54:07
  with that elevation, not the easiest place to go in and come
• 54:10
  out with win. They're running back.
• 54:12
  LB Martin is back and Tim's favorite player, number 47,
• 54:18
  Barabach Meyer, his first year was really, really good.
• 54:21
  And this guy didn't even show up on the campus till June.
• 54:23
  So he missed all spring practice.
• 54:25
  And still, if it wasn't for Texas Tech, they'd have been
• 54:27
  undefeated and a playoff team. So looking at the schedule, I
• 54:32
  mean, they go to TCU, maybe that's their toughest Rd. game,
• 54:34
  but there's no Josh Hoover. They host Arizona, they host
• 54:38
  Arizona State. They do host Notre Dame in
• 54:41
  October. That'll be interesting.
• 54:42
  And while that won't affect the Big 12 title, the team they had
• 54:47
  the most trouble with, Texas Tech, had two loss last year,
• 54:49
  both to Tech. Texas Tech's not on the
• 54:51
  schedule. Everybody's trendy pick for this
• 54:53
  conference. Houston is also not on the
• 54:55
  schedule. So at this number, I certainly
• 55:00
  see a scenario where they could be in the Big 12 title game.
• 55:03
  And I mean, you know, you play that extra conference game,
• 55:06
  maybe the committee gives you a look.
• 55:08
  Remember, they were one of the teams that some people thought
• 55:11
  and they should have been in, but, you know, didn't get in.
• 55:15
  So maybe they get a little a little payback this year.
• 55:17
  But I I don't, I don't know, maybe the number's ridiculous.
• 55:21
  I mean, yeah, it is ridiculous, but this is a team.
• 55:24
  They got a solid quarterback play, they got a solid running
• 55:26
  game, they got a solid defense. They play in a place that's
• 55:28
  tough to win if you're a visiting team at this number.
• 55:33
  I I just could not not attend it.
• 55:35
  So why not? I have 1/2 unit on BYU to win it
• 55:39
  all, 125 to 1. Tell me I'm crazy guys.
• 55:42
  I'm fine with it. They're crazy, but we love it,
• 55:44
  so it's great. That's not a bad bet, really.
• 55:46
  I mean that that's possible. That's not a bad bet.
• 55:50
  So, well, we got Saratoga Ray chiming in.
• 55:51
  He's on. He's all over Kansas State this
• 55:53
  year. Kansas State I.
• 55:56
  Like for the big, like the head coaching move they made.
• 55:59
  I do, Peter. You've you've.
• 56:03
  Got a long start here, don't you?
• 56:05
  I do. Where's my slide?
• 56:08
  Oh, there it is all. Right, people hear me now,
• 56:10
  believe me later. All right, so so Oklahoma is is
• 56:16
  my bet. So this is a blue blood program,
• 56:20
  right? Strong recruiting base, so
• 56:24
  continuity and roster this. So QB upside is there's a lot of
• 56:30
  upside with that QBQB position. So defense is trending upward.
• 56:35
  So it's been a little bit of an issue, but I think it's trending
• 56:38
  upward. Favorable path versus SECSCC
• 56:41
  teams. So, I mean, I think, you know,
• 56:44
  at, you know, what is it 35 to 1?
• 56:46
  You know, obviously, you know, it's a bit of a long shot here,
• 56:50
  but I like to play two things, Darren asked way back at the
• 56:53
  beginning of this pod, right? How do I look?
• 56:56
  How do we look at teams? How do we think about what we're
• 57:00
  doing? I generally look at two things,
• 57:02
  right? Number one, I'm looking for a
• 57:04
  team that I think absolutely has a clear path to win that is in a
• 57:11
  reasonable betting position, right?
• 57:14
  That's that's that's Lane, that's LSU.
• 57:17
  We also look for another team that if things play out properly
• 57:22
  and they're a little bit longer odds could actually make a a
• 57:26
  reasonable run at winning the natty.
• 57:29
  And that's where Oklahoma falls in here, right?
• 57:32
  This is a really good team, a blue blood program, quality
• 57:35
  talent across the board. And what they really need is, is
• 57:39
  quality quarterback play. If they get quality quarterback
• 57:42
  play and consistently, this is a team that can beat anybody
• 57:46
  anytime and I truly believe that.
• 57:48
  So that's what I'm looking for here with this team.
• 57:51
  I'm not betting on them because of the best team.
• 57:53
  I'm betting on the number because that 35 to 1, you know,
• 57:58
  this is a team that can match up with anybody anytime, right?
• 58:01
  So I do believe they can beat, you know, these some of these
• 58:05
  other teams, all these other teams that we talked about in
• 58:08
  the right circumstances at the right time.
• 58:10
  And because of that, I believe that there is potential here for
• 58:14
  them to get in the playoff and roll through.
• 58:18
  You know, it's not high potential, but there is
• 58:21
  potential here. So I do like this team.
• 58:24
  I do like the the structure, I do like their depth.
• 58:28
  And I think if that quarterback play steps up, I think there is
• 58:31
  a lot of potential here. So that's why I'm playing this
• 58:34
  team and I'm excited at the 35 to 1.
• 58:38
  They could pay back very nicely. So I'm doing a full unit on
• 58:42
  Oklahoma 35 to 1 to have a chance to bring me some scratch.
• 58:49
  I love that. I mean, let's remember Mateer
• 58:51
  was kicking ass before he got hurt and that defense can hang
• 58:55
  with them. Their schedule's not terrible
• 58:56
  either. I mean, they if they get through
• 58:58
  their their first five games, I think they go to Michigan, they
• 59:01
  go to Georgia and then they host Texas like mid-october.
• 59:05
  But after that they they could easily run that easily.
• 59:11
  Good team, I like this team. I do too.
• 59:15
  All right. Any final thoughts on on the
• 59:17
  show before we wrap it up? No, this is fun.
• 59:22
  There's some really good teams here to talk about, so this is a
• 59:25
  lot of. Fun.
• 59:25
  We're back. Let's wrap this up all right.
• 59:31
  All right, man, I got a couple of half unit plays here.
• 59:35
  LSU at 18, O1 profit boosted. Shout out to Bet MGM for giving
• 59:39
  me that in the middle of a random January and I think this
• 59:44
  is a decent play at the number half unit on BYU to win the
• 59:49
  whole thing at 125 to. One OK and I've got 1 unit on
• 59:54
  Texas Tech plus 1600. That's my only bet.
• 59:56
  I was boring to not do a long shot this year, Peter.
• 1:00:00
  I am on the lane train with Darren, LSU fifth plus 1500, and
• 1:00:06
  I just talked about my Oklahoma bat.
• 1:00:07
  I think if things play out well, it's a team that could actually
• 1:00:10
  make a run. So plus 3500.
• 1:00:13
  So great to have you all here. Thank you to everybody for
• 1:00:18
  watching along with us. Thanks for the left to comment.
• 1:00:21
  We're back into the swing of things.
• 1:00:23
  We'll be back in a couple weeks with our first of our conference
• 1:00:26
  previews. Please don't forget to like and
• 1:00:28
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• 1:00:31
  Spotify if you're listening there too.
• 1:00:33
  Thank you all very much and we'll see you in a couple weeks.